CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on July 25, 2017, 02:52:30 PM
-
Keeping prior weeks locked in, but adjusting weeks going forward as the poll shifts...
SEPTEMBER 2
#1 Alabama vs. #3 Florida State @ Atlanta
#11 Michigan vs. #17 Florida @ Dallas
#21 Virginia Tech vs. #22 West Virginia @ Washington DC
SEPTEMBER 9
#5 Oklahoma at #2 Ohio State
#13 Auburn at #3 Clemson
#14 Stanford at #6 USC
#15 Georgia at #24 Notre Dame
SEPTEMBER 16
#5 Clemson at #14 Louisville
#23 Tennessee at #24 Florida
SEPTEMBER 23
#16 TCU at #6 Oklahoma State
#17 Mississippi State at #11 Georgia
SEPTEMBER 30
(Fri) #5 USC at #16 Washington State
#2 Clemson at #12 Virginia Tech
#24 Mississippi State at #13 Auburn
OCTOBER 7
(Thu) #17 Louisville at #24 NC State
#23 West Virginia at #8 TCU
OCTOBER 14
NONE
OCTOBER 21
#19 Michigan at #2 Penn State
#11 USC at #13 Notre Dame
OCTOBER 28
#2 Penn State at #6 Ohio State
#4 TCU at #25 Iowa State
#9 Notre Dame at #14 NC State
#11 Oklahoma State at #22 West Virginia
NOVEMBER 4
#19 LSU at #2 Alabama
#4 Clemson at #20 NC State
#5 Oklahoma at #11 Oklahoma State
#7 Penn State at #24 Michigan State
#13 Virginia Tech at #10 Miami
#22 Arizona at #17 USC
#21 Stanford at #25 Washington State
NOVEMBER 11
#1 Georgia at #10 Auburn
#2 Alabama at #16 Mississippi State
#3 Notre Dame at #7 Miami
#6 TCU at #5 Oklahoma
#20 Iowa at #8 Wisconsin
#12 Michigan State at #13 Ohio State
#15 Oklahoma State at #21 Iowa State
NOVEMBER 18
#24 Michigan at #5 Wisconsin
NOVEMBER 25
#1 Alabama at #6 Auburn
#3 Clemson at #24 South Carolina
#8 Notre Dame at #21 Stanford
#13 Washington State at #17 Washington
DECEMBER 2
(Fri) #10 USC vs. #12 Stanford
#1 Clemson vs. #7 Miami
#2 Auburn vs. #6 Georgia
#3 Oklahoma vs. #11 TCU
#4 Wisconsin vs. #8 Ohio State
#20 Memphis at #14 Central Florida
-
More even distribution than in most year. Normally there are weeks with none, and this year every week has at least two, but no weeks jump off the page as huge weekends.
Labor Day weekend is a dropoff from the last couple too, is what sticks out.
-
Some fun matchups this year. In the OOC slate, I'm really looking forward to
Alabama-FSU
Michigan - Florida
Oklahoma - Ohio State
Texas - USC
That's a nice 3-week start to the season
-
I know it's just recency bias (or involvement of my team), but my feeling is that this September starts "bigger" than usual. And the last half of October looks very "big," too.
-
I know it's just recency bias (or involvement of my team), but my feeling is that this September starts "bigger" than usual. And the last half of October looks very "big," too.
It "starts" much smaller. Major downgrade from Labor Day 2016 to Labor Day 2017, but on a whole September is probably better. IIRC Weeks 3 and 4 have been really bad the past couple years, but they are solid this year. Labor Day 2016 is an impossible bar to live up to though.
-
I can believe that. But because I tend to forget the short life of the CFB season when it starts (September is 1/3 but feels like less than that until its gone), I guess I could call all of September "the start."
-
Notre Dame is ranked in a few polls, so that could add one more game.
-
I'll be curious to watch this update through the season. We will several of these teams drop out only to be replaced by others.
-
I'll be curious to watch this update through the season. We will several of these teams drop out only to be replaced by others.
Right, I'm guessing as conference games are announced later and later for TV impact, I don't think it's a coincidence that we have such an even distribution, but as the rankings chance, a truly big time weekend may emerge.
-
Going to keep updating this as the season progresses, but locking in past weeks.
October 21 still looking like the marquee Saturday. In addition to the four ranked games you have plenty of other interesting ones
#9 Oklahoma State at Texas
#15 Auburn at Arkansas
Colorado at #21 Washington State
Oregon at #25 UCLA
#4 USC at Notre Dame
-
Updated, and now November 11 has 5, PLUS:
#7 Washington at Stanford (Friday night)
#5 USC at Colorado
Iowa at #9 Wisconsin
MSU at #10 OSU
#13 VT at GT
ND at #14 Miami
-
Bump:
SEPTEMBER 23
#16 TCU at #6 Oklahoma State
#17 Mississippi State at #11 Georgia
That is a comparatively thin week, and MSU was not expected to be ranked of course.
Oklahoma State will score about 63 points or so.
-
Bump:
SEPTEMBER 23
#16 TCU at #6 Oklahoma State
#17 Mississippi State at #11 Georgia
That is a comparatively thin week, and MSU was not expected to be ranked of course.
Oklahoma State will score about 63 points or so.
Yeah we lost UCLA-Stanford but gained that game.
I wasn't planning on making this one sticky?
-
thought vandy would have been ranked.
-
thought vandy would have been ranked.
Me too. I'd have them ranked.
-
SEPTEMBER 30
(Fri) #5 USC at #18 Washington State
#2 Clemson at #13 Virginia Tech
#17 Mississippi State at #15 Auburn
Miss State is #24 and Wazzu is #16. I realize you didn't update these. I don't think any other ranked teams are playing ranked teams.
Miami is playing Duke who is ranked 27th, which we don't normally consider. A Duke win would get them ranked obviously at 5-0. SDSU is ranked playing NIU (2-1) which is not but beat Nebraska obviously, so that could be a good one.
-
Updated now. With Florida State falling out there isn't a much in the ACC after this weekends Clemson-VT game.
Virginia Tech at Miami on November 4 is the only one remaining for the entire season.
-
Ugh, with the changes, West Virginia at TCU is the only one now this Saturday, with Utah at USC being the only one next Saturday
Not exactly moving the needle.
I guess this is the flip side to moving more conference games to September, is that it makes September less terrible, but thins out October and November more than we are accustomed to.
Even the following Saturday, just two.
So the next three Saturdays combined right now have a total of four games between ranked teams
-
Obviously there are still a lot of important competitive games on the slate even if neither or only one is ranked.
It's not unusual for a 15th ranked team to lose to a team barely getting votes on the road in a game with conference implications.
We have Laville at NCSU on Thursday of course which is a pretty good Thursday night matchup and both are ranked teams. Miami at FSU is a pretty good game.
NCSU was my pick for "most underranked".
-
So, the Laville - NCSU game was on last night and was pretty good. The NCSU crowd was pretty amped and enthused, though there were some empty seats visible in the corners of the stadium. It wasn't like Penn State at night, but it was pretty good enthusiasm.
Louisville has a pretty good team but is too dependent on one player, who is very good of course, but they don't have the depth to be elite.
NCSU could be a 9-3 kind of team I think. They are going to climb a bit in the rankings.
-
Good stuff.
-
I had not realized how often I used the word "Pretty" in my post above. Poor writing indeed. ~??? :) :57: :34:
-
So, the Laville - NCSU game was on last night and was pretty good. The NCSU crowd was pretty amped and enthused, though there were some empty seats visible in the corners of the stadium. It wasn't like Penn State at night, but it was pretty good enthusiasm.
Louisville has a pretty good team but is too dependent on one player, who is very good of course, but they don't have the depth to be elite.
NCSU could be a 9-3 kind of team I think. They are going to climb a bit in the rankings.
Disagree that they have a good team. They have a pretty bad team with arguably the best player in college football.
-
Didn't Bobby Pitino get fired?
Something about a mistress and being a scumbag.
-
Didn't Bobby Pitino get fired?
Something about a mistress and being a scumbag.
Yes, he got fired. He also left one pro team midseason to go elsewhere. Then he ended up at Laville.
Laville may get the Fulmer Cup trophy this year already.
-
So basically get through this week, and it's looking like a lot of fun the rest of the way. It's not just a lack of a ranked matchup this week either, there's simply not a lot of intrigue. Granted it's college football, there are 60 games, not all are duds. RRS should still be good. San Diego State hsts Boise in probably their toughest test towards finishing undefeated. The Ducks are on the farm. Miami tries to defend the triple option. But honestly, when "Navy faces a tough road test at Memphis, to put their undefeated record on the line," actually does make a short list of the most interesting games in mid-October, it's a light load.
-
Really liking that November 4 & 11 back to back weekends.
10 ranked matchups, 5 of which involve a top 6 team going on the road to another ranked team. Plus Bedlam, Catholics vs. Convicts, a Miami-VT battle like we haven't seen since the late Big East days, MSU making their first trip to Columbus since the Geiger game.
Those are two weekends where my butt will not move.
-
Georgia Tech is "almost ranked" and plays Thursday night at Miami. That merits a note I think. Miami is #11, the only undefeated P5 team not in the top ten.
Tech obviously is a tough out coming right after a last gasp win at FSU.
Texas Tech is at WVU, which could be interesting.
Wazzu at Cal late Friday night. USC hosts Utah.
Auburn goes to LSU. South Carolina goes to Tennessee, which doesn't much matter to most except for the coaching drama.
-
Georgia Tech is "almost ranked" and plays Thursday night at Miami. That merits a note I think. Miami is #11, the only undefeated P5 team not in the top ten.
I thought that game was Saturday afternoon now, because Miami didn't wind up having their bye last week, with the FSU game moved. It's left us with one lousy Sun Belt game on Thursday night.
-
You are correct, it's 3:30 PM Saturday. Oomph.
-
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/page/gamedaykickoff101217/week-7-no-ranked-opponents-which-means-alert-upsets
ESPN is copying ELA.
-
Considering they are using FPI as their basis, I'm surprised they didn't put #21 MSU on upset alert at Minnesota, considering their FPI only gives MSU a 51% shot to win. I have to imagine the others are higher than that.
-
This might be one of those "famous" Upset Weekends in CFB. It nearly is already, with more to come.
-
Updated polls give us our first 6 game weekends (November 4 and 25), with the 4th having all 6 in one day.
#24 LSU at #1 Alabama
#2 Penn State at #18 Michigan State
#7 Clemson at #16 NC State
#14 Virginia Tech at #8 Miami
#9 Oklahoma at #10 Oklahoma State
#22 Stanford at #15 Washington State
Plus
Texas at #4 TCU
#6 Ohio State at Iowa (computers like them as a top 25 team)
#21 Auburn at Texas A&M (currently #27)
Wake Forest (4-2) at #13 Notre Dame
I think that is shaping up as the best Saturday of the season absent some massive shifts.
-
Granted to hold there, we also need Iowa State to upset TCU this weekend, but now up to 7 ranked matchups on November 4.
To put that full Saturday in perspective, the matchups involving ranked teams (ignoring the USF-UConn and UCF-SMU Group of 5 games)
#23 LSU at #1 Alabama
#2 Penn State at #16 Michigan State
South Carolina at #3 Georgia
Texas at #4 TCU
#5 Wisconsin at Indiana
#6 Ohio State at Iowa
#7 Clemson at #14 NC State
#13 Virginia Tech at #8 Miami
Wake Forest at #9 Notre Dame
#10 Oklahoma at #11 Oklahoma State
Oregon at #12 Washington
#20 Stanford at #15 Washington State
#19 Auburn at Texas A&M
Arizona at #21 USC
#25 Iowa State at #22 West Virginia
So you have 15 games involving ranked Power 5 teams. 7 are where they play each other.
The other 8 opponents, based on Massey composite ranking:
#27 Texas A&M
#29 Iowa
#33 South Carolina
#39 Wake Forest
#41 Arizona
#48 Texas
#55 Oregon
#57 Indiana
So as of now the EASIEST opponents that any ranked team is facing that week are Texas, Oregon and @Indiana.
Mayhem!
-
But in case you are wondering why the Big Ten keeps getting more prime time games
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DM73bqRV4AAjNpb.jpg)
-
I'm thinking 11/4 should be a great day to sit in front of a TV all day long.
- #23 LSU at #1 Bama: I don't think Bama will lose this regular season but in spite of their success they have lost a regular season SEC game in five of the past six seasons. LSU probably has the best chance aside from Auburn.
- #2 PSU at #16 Michigan State: Regardless of the tOSU/PSU outcome, this is a huge game. If Penn State beats Ohio State then they can pretty much wrap up the B1G-E and a rematch with UW in this game. If the Nittany Lions lose to the Buckeyes then this game is an elimination game for PSU.
- #7 Clemson at #14 NCST: NCST will be 4-0 in the ACC heading into this game and if they win they'll come out of it 5-0 with at least a two game lead AND the tiebreakers against their closest competitors. Ie, if the Wolfpack win this they would have to lose three straight games to three of the worst teams in the ACC to miss the ACCCG.
- #13 VaTech at #8 Miami: The ACC-Coastal (I had to look it up) is shaping up to be the most interesting divisional race in the entire P5 (B1G-W is the least interesting). Four of the seven teams in the division have zero or one losses and these are two of those teams.
- #10 Oklahoma at #11 OkSU: These teams each already have one B12 loss and it is unlikely that either can get to the B12CG with two. It is also EXTREMELY unlikely that either team can get to the CFP with two losses so this game is basically at B12 and CFP elimination game.
- #20 Stanford at #15 WSU: These two teams each already have a P12 loss and neither has yet played the other 1-loss team in the P12-N. Thus, this is probably an elimination game in the P12-N.
- #25 IowaSt at #22 WVU: Much like the Sooners and Cowboys, the Cyclones and Mountaineers each have one B12 loss. In this case both are probably already out of the CFP race due to OOC losses to Iowa and VaTech but this is still likely a B12 elimination game.
-
I'm thinking 11/4 should be a great day to sit in front of a TV all day long.
- #23 LSU at #1 Bama: I don't think Bama will lose this regular season but in spite of their success they have lost a regular season SEC game in five of the past six seasons. LSU probably has the best chance aside from Auburn.
- #2 PSU at #16 Michigan State: Regardless of the tOSU/PSU outcome, this is a huge game. If Penn State beats Ohio State then they can pretty much wrap up the B1G-E and a rematch with UW in this game. If the Nittany Lions lose to the Buckeyes then this game is an elimination game for PSU.
- #7 Clemson at #14 NCST: NCST will be 4-0 in the ACC heading into this game and if they win they'll come out of it 5-0 with at least a two game lead AND the tiebreakers against their closest competitors. Ie, if the Wolfpack win this they would have to lose three straight games to three of the worst teams in the ACC to miss the ACCCG.
- #13 VaTech at #8 Miami: The ACC-Coastal (I had to look it up) is shaping up to be the most interesting divisional race in the entire P5 (B1G-W is the least interesting). Four of the seven teams in the division have zero or one losses and these are two of those teams.
- #10 Oklahoma at #11 OkSU: These teams each already have one B12 loss and it is unlikely that either can get to the B12CG with two. It is also EXTREMELY unlikely that either team can get to the CFP with two losses so this game is basically at B12 and CFP elimination game.
- #20 Stanford at #15 WSU: These two teams each already have a P12 loss and neither has yet played the other 1-loss team in the P12-N. Thus, this is probably an elimination game in the P12-N.
- #25 IowaSt at #22 WVU: Much like the Sooners and Cowboys, the Cyclones and Mountaineers each have one B12 loss. In this case both are probably already out of the CFP race due to OOC losses to Iowa and VaTech but this is still likely a B12 elimination game.
Did you see my post 2 up?
There are 12 games featuring top 40 teams, and the "bad" games featuring top 25 teams (meaning facing non top 40 teams) are Texas at TCU; Oregon at Washington and Wisconsin at Indiana.
When those are the WORST games featuring ranked teams, you have a hell of a Saturday.
This might be right there with that October Saturday in 2003 that I've always held as the gold standard.
-
Did you see my post 2 up?
There are 12 games featuring top 40 teams, and the "bad" games featuring top 25 teams (meaning facing non top 40 teams) are Texas at TCU; Oregon at Washington and Wisconsin at Indiana.
When those are the WORST games featuring ranked teams, you have a hell of a Saturday.
This might be right there with that October Saturday in 2003 that I've always held as the gold standard.
I did see it. My post was meant to expand on it. In addition to a ton of great matchups that could go either way, we are late enough in the season that conference and divisional races are becoming more clear.
-
Holding tight at 7 because we lost ISU-WVU but gained USC-Arizona.
Great thing is we now have 7 for next week too, and we could get some craziness at the top. #1, #2 and #3 all face road games against top 15 opponents.
-
As you noted, the "worst" games with ranked teams are still competitive.
Hard to see how LSU handles Bama obviously. South Carolina at UGA is perhaps more of a challenge in the SEC.
Clemson at NCSU could be interesting. OSU at Iowa after the emotional win could be something.
-
I actually think this Saturday is better than last Saturday now.
Enjoy it, because next Saturday is awful.
Looking at the Top 25 next week:
No games between ranked teams
4 ranked P5 teams are playing FCS or G5 schools
The only games between ranked teams and a team even over .500 in conference play are #8 Wisconsin-Michigan and #7 Miami-Virginia (unless you count Memphis-SMU)
-
Regardless of the outcome Saturday, UW will be ranked next week and if M wins, they will likely be ranked too.
-
I actually think this Saturday is better than last Saturday now.
Enjoy it, because next Saturday is awful.
Looking at the Top 25 next week:
No games between ranked teams
4 ranked P5 teams are playing FCS or G5 schools
The only games between ranked teams and a team even over .500 in conference play are #8 Wisconsin-Michigan and #7 Miami-Virginia (unless you count Memphis-SMU)
Um, did you miss UGA at Auburn? That is two top ten ranked teams in the CFP ranking.
-
And ND at Miami, but I THINK you mean the Saturday following this one upcoming, so nevermind.
Kentucky at UGA MIGHT get ranked mebbe.
-
As you noted, the "worst" games with ranked teams are still competitive.
Hard to see how LSU handles Bama obviously. South Carolina at UGA is perhaps more of a challenge in the SEC.
Clemson at NCSU could be interesting. OSU at Iowa after the emotional win could be something.
While I was too vague, I was pretty close! Clemson at NCSU was interesting and the Iowa game was a something.
-
And ND at Miami, but I THINK you mean the Saturday following this one upcoming, so nevermind.
Kentucky at UGA MIGHT get ranked mebbe.
Yeah, the first line said I think this Saturday is better than last, but enjoy it, because the following Saturday is probably the worst of the whole season.
-
A lot of ranked teams go on the road this weekend, if not to face ranked teams, at least to face teams with a pulse.
Wazzu at Utah
USC at Colorado
VaTech at the other Tech
NCSU at BC
UDubb at Stanford
Those lack playoff implications but could further roil the rankings.
-
If UK beats Vandy and some other ranked teams lose, they might get ranked 25 or so at 7-3, rightly or wrongly.
The good news is we leave for France Monday, so I won't miss much next week, but I'll miss the week following also as far as TV is concerned. Even at Notre Dame I'm told they do not broadcast ND games. I was shocked.
What's the point of this big building if not for that?
We'll be in Bayeux for three days and I hope the weather is half decent. We were in Verdun in December one year and it was brutally cold and damp, drizzling and sleeting and drizzling the whole time we visited the old forts.
Hard to imagine serving in one in 1916.
-
Michigan sliding back in kept us from our second weekend of no such matchups
-
Thanks for posting this ELA.
These rankings are what we have, until the season is complete. However, as soon as the season ends (after CCGs, but before playoff selection), I think only the final rankings should be considered by the playoff committee and anyone else discussing CFB. Rankings during the season, especially early on, are very subjective (based on opinion, rather than fact). For example, Alabama’s win over then #3 FSU is being looked at as a great win, since the Seminoles still had their QB. Right now, FSU is not a good team at all, I question if they actually ever were good this season. We don’t really know if the Noles just stink, or the QB loss caused their downfall. Also, why do we make these assumptions at all? It results in situations like Clemson losing to Syracuse, and they get a pass (ridiculous) since their QB was injured. IMO every week counts, and we have to look at the results only, not subjective extenuating circumstances open to interpretation. Also, only good teams get these kind of justified losses, not the “lesser teams”.
I have justifications for both of Ohio State’s losses this year, however those justifications shouldn’t count IMO. Every team should own their final record without all the interpretation by “experts”. What do you think?
-
I have justifications for both of Ohio State’s losses this year, however those justifications shouldn’t count IMO. Every team should own their final record without all the interpretation by “experts”. What do you think?
Do tell, please.
-
Do tell, please.
Justification 1) Remember, I don’t think these should count as excuses. Last season the Buckeyes went to Norman and dominated the Sooners. I don’t think anybody (except the Sooners) knew how angry/pissed off Oklahoma (and Baker Mayfield) were about the previous loss. The Buckeyes prepared normally for that game, while the Sooners were seething with anger, pointing to their rematch all summer, taking Ohio State’s traditional post game singing of “Carmen Ohio” extremely personally (as evidenced by Mayfield planting the flag). Therefore, Ohio State came out relatively flat (normal game), while the Sooners were “Screaming For Vengeance”. In hindsight, the result was entirely predictable, the Sooners were extremely fired up, the Buckeyes were prepared, but on an entirely different emotional level - they got dominated.
Justification 2) This might be a little more of a theory, but here goes. The Penn State at Ohio State game was one of the hardest played games (by both teams) that I have ever witnessed. By the end of that game, both teams were so tired, they were like two fighters that didn’t even have the strength to lift their arms. It takes time to recover from something like that, and Meyer knew it - he came up with that stupid “elite warriors enjoy their victory and move on to the next challenge” (paraphrased) line. His preparation for the Iowa game, was about resting the team, and then winning on talent (bad idea). The exhaustion theory/justification is evidenced by both Penn State and Ohio State losing the following week (very flat) to what I would argue are weaker teams (Michigan State and Iowa, respectively).
Again, I don’t think justifications or excuses should count, only results. However, why does Clemson get a pass for losing to Syracuse? Why does ND get hardly any penalty for losing to GA at home? All wins and losses should count without so much subjective interpretation.
-
Thanks for posting this ELA.
These rankings are what we have, until the season is complete. However, as soon as the season ends (after CCGs, but before playoff selection), I think only the final rankings should be considered by the playoff committee and anyone else discussing CFB.
I agree. The purpose of this thread is not to compare schedules/quality wins, but simply to compare the quality of games on weekends, and those are viewed as of the time. Yes, in retrospect, Alabama-Florida State was not a meaningful game on opening weekend, nor was Michigan-Florida. But we didn't know that at the time. This is more rating weekends as viewing entities.
-
Can't believe this is done again already.
Swapped one rivalry in for another, as UM-OSU slides out, Clemson-SC slides in.
-
Added championship week
Is it me, or is this the best batch of championship games we've had?