CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: eltigrerex on November 21, 2017, 05:11:26 PM
-
Anyone care to weigh in with their thoughts on the game?
We can't have zero IB threads here and call it an SEC board...
-
this game will be won where most games between good teams are won, the trenches.
both teams like to run the ball and stop the run. both are good at both things. both have qb's that can make you pay if you over commit to doing so.
i have no clue what all that means.
-
LOL
I would suggest that, while running the ball is always important and both teams are geared to do it, each defense should be stout enough to avoid getting paved for at least a half.
I think this one simply comes down to QB play. While Stidham is probably the better pocket passer, given his previous performances under duress (seems likely that will be the case), I think this is Hurts' game to decide. If the Tigers can't tackle him when they get to him and/or keep him between the tackles, it's difficult to imagine Auburn winning this game. By contrast, if AU could figure a way to frustrate him even a little, I really like Auburn's chances to win and maybe comfortably.
Elsewise, I'm tempted to point at AU's issues with kick coverage as the likely determining factor.
But there is lots to consider in this one, especially the way in which the existing injuries might factor in...
-
What's up TK?
I picked Auburn in my pool and I'll pick them here. 27-24. So it is written.
-
it's with great insight and purposeful study of the circumstance that the certainty of this prediction is..... uh... certain:
Auburn is going to give Bama all they can handle. maybe slightly more than they can handle.
in all seriousness, it's not that Bama isn't the giant they're made out to be, and it isn't that Auburn is woeful- it's that Bama is 'business as usual' while Auburn is playing with moxy fueled by pure hatred of their fellow man. Madden once said that (paraphrased) "emotion will get you two quarters", and that seems to be pretty true. What wasn't shared is that those two quarters may be the last two quarters. That's basically how Clemson beat them... that's how MSU hung around. It's NOT that the recipe isn't known, it's that surviving the Bama 'second half lean' is almost impossible w/o tons of moxy and heated emotion.
surviving the first half is the difficulty- not only speaking in terms of score but in terms of attrition. It's my opinion that this is where the coaches and the offensive plan comes into play- and Malzahn+Lindsey will be up for the task of handing Bama a puzzle enough to not only keep them in the same neighborhood of score, but possibly even match them.... that's good, no? but more to the point they'll be able to do it with some display of sustainment., required to keep the attrition manageable.... then comes the second half.
At any rate, in this dimension or those surrounding, i wager Auburn is capable of scoring as much as 28~35 on Bama. I think their D is capable of holding a functional Bama O to under 45. That leaves a window of 10~17 points or so delta between the capacity of the match, but doesn't speak anything to the 'intangibles'. The intangible points between these two any time they play is at least worth 10 points, and likely in the 17point range. it's just that crazy. Either the 10 or the 17 covers Auburn, so long as they catch every break. There is another intangible, too, that is owned by Jordan-Hare that's worth at least 7 to the home team and has great influence on that intangible 17- which means...... fuzzy math... Auburn is favored in my mind by five and with a final score of 45 to 50 Auburn.
dink-dunk down the field picking on LB's, and opening the 3~4 yard scurry under threat of deep ball on post routes on the weak side (mano-a-mano or what they call 50/50 passes since, oh, 2017 or so; I'm so freaking tired of hearing 50/50 and RPO)... The functional plan to beat Bama is to survive into the second half and see opportunity present itself, and Auburn has the tools to pull that off with a running game, a short/intermediate/deep passing threat, and a RPO (can't believe i just typed that) capability...... similar to the last team that beat Bama and a team that has just as much moxy. Here's to hoping the Bama players have purchased and are fully vested in their 'greatness' (and I'm NOT detracting from that) and believes this is a 'business as usual' game.
^that, y'all, was saying a whole lot without saying anything at all.
-
Well can Auburn do whatever MSU did to Bama? If they can, and AU has better talent than MSU, then Bama is in trouble.
-
LOL
I would suggest that, while running the ball is always important and both teams are geared to do it, each defense should be stout enough to avoid getting paved for at least a half.
I think this one simply comes down to QB play. While Stidham is probably the better pocket passer, given his previous performances under duress (seems likely that will be the case), I think this is Hurts' game to decide. If the Tigers can't tackle him when they get to him and/or keep him between the tackles, it's difficult to imagine Auburn winning this game. By contrast, if AU could figure a way to frustrate him even a little, I really like Auburn's chances to win and maybe comfortably.
Elsewise, I'm tempted to point at AU's issues with kick coverage as the likely determining factor.
But there is lots to consider in this one, especially the way in which the existing injuries might factor in...
Kick coverage for Auburn has become scary; however, it is similar to UAT's field goal kicking. In a close game, Auburn has a BIG advantage when it comes to getting FGs. All that said, Auburn MUST get 6s and not 3s when given the opportunity. Auburn needs to jump on UAT early and often and force Hurts to win the game with his arm with passes to someone other than Ridley.....
-
Meteor.
-
Nope. Stidham is a different type of animal than Fitzgerald. I am not saying one is better than the other. Fitzgerald beats you with his feet and Bama minus two more lbs had trouble stopping him running.
-
I think the game turns on whether or not Bama can get pressure on Stidham minus the missing lbs. That is where Bama likes to get their pass rush from. If they can Bama wins by two tds. If they can't then the game will be close. Maybe a field goal.
-
Salient points, all... except for Mike, LOL. I really like your take, Drew. Nicely done!
It seems I'm not alone in being unable to get a comfortably idea about what might happen in this one. It's been a long time since I've seen our respective fan bases this ... unsure of what to expect. Has already been a strange season--I'm starting to get a sneaky feeling this game might be even stranger.
-
Salient points, all... except for Mike, LOL. I really like your take, Drew. Nicely done!
It seems I'm not alone in being unable to get a comfortably idea about what might happen in this one. It's been a long time since I've seen our respective fan bases this ... unsure of what to expect. Has already been a strange season--I'm starting to get a sneaky feeling this game might be even stranger.
it's the iron bowl in jh with malzahn for a seccg birth and a chance at the cfp. of course it'll be a weird game.
-
i saw a fascinating statistic- it doesn't mean anything; it was just fascinating...
Saban is without a win against Auburn when they have nine+ wins on the season.
I didn't validate this stat, I'm just repeating it. It came from an SEC Network post of Facebook..
https://www.facebook.com/SECNetwork/photos/a.129196000584483.1073741834.123694511134632/657194587784619/?type=3&permPage=1
-
i saw a fascinating statistic- it doesn't mean anything; it was just fascinating...
Saban is without a win against Auburn when they have nine+ wins on the season.
I didn't validate this stat, I'm just repeating it. It came from an SEC Network post of Facebook..
https://www.facebook.com/SECNetwork/photos/a.129196000584483.1073741834.123694511134632/657194587784619/?type=3&permPage=1
More of an indictment against Auburn than it is Saban. Means that Auburn has won 9 or more games in just 6 of the 15 years in which they have faced Saban.
An even more telling story of the series is that Auburn has not beaten Bama by more than 10 points since 1969. NINETEEN SIXTY NINE!
-
Ole Miss won the Egg Bowl.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9p1h8aUMAIpoLX.jpg)
-
^they put out and executed a hit on the MSU QB... that looked to be one uncomfortable injury, no? turns out, that position is pretty important for driving that O.
-
Or any O, really.
Except for the patented Les Miles LSU offense, where the QB just hands off 100% of the time.
-
If both these teams played like they've been playing, I'd take Auburn, and maybe even comfortably. But it comes down to who I trust when picking with my gut, and I trust Alabama to cure their ills more than I trust Auburn to put their foot on a throat.
I take Bama in an upset (upset, bc I favor AU in practical analysis).
-
Bama is never the underdog, and if they are, then they shouldn't be. I don't care how many hurt LBs they have. Starting 2 years ago, the last 3 Bama squads have been the most talented 75-scolly football rosters in history.
There's never any reason to pick against them (knowing they won't win every game).
-
Bama is never the underdog, and if they are, then they shouldn't be. I don't care how many hurt LBs they have. Starting 2 years ago, the last 3 Bama squads have been the most talented 75-scolly football rosters in history.
There's never any reason to pick against them (knowing they won't win every game).
Talent is the bulk of the equation, and all else being equal, I would agree. All else is not equal, and Auburn is not as far behind Bama in talent as their record the last few years would make one think.
Auburn has clicked, their qb has come through. Coupled with talent, that's what it takes to beat the Gumps. But it hasn't even been normal days for the Gumps. They've beaten up crappy teams and struggled more than normal with teams with a pulse. Again, if they both play like they have been, AU has been the better team...as much as I want to throw up saying anything good about AU.
That said, I'll reiterate I'm picking Bama bc my instict is to expect AU to implode under pressure and to expect Bama to pull something out of their ass. Winning is a habit and an attitude, and whatever problems Bama has, they have the right habits and attitude.
We'll see in an hour, I guess.
-
i've long said, to the point of preaching on the old site, that this game is about cohesion.
bama has the ponies there is no doubt, and saban has obvious talent making them play cohesively...
it appears to me that auburn is playing cohesively, too. they're banging on all eight cylinders. they also have ponies... their starting 11 on either side is in the same class as bama's... they 'should' be able to play against those boys. their issue is going to be attrition... if they can break bama's comfort zone of play- which is fundamental football and that 'bama lean', and do so by attacking where bama is weak(er)- which is just beyond the defensive line- they can win this game... they'll have to stretch to the corners because that line is still the madness it's always been, but the capacity to keep bama guessing with the option-keeper, the short pass, and the outside run- all the while drawing man to man on flag routes and using it- they can work bama to the point 5~7 yards across the center is open most every play.
-
Dang, my head was smarter than my gut. I was so sure Barn would derp that.
-
Kick coverage for Auburn has become scary; however, it is similar to UAT's field goal kicking. In a close game, Auburn has a BIG advantage when it comes to getting FGs. All that said, Auburn MUST get 6s and not 3s when given the opportunity. Auburn needs to jump on UAT early and often and force Hurts to win the game with his arm with passes to someone other than Ridley.....
I do believe I nailed Auburn's game plan. The DL, for the most part, laid back to allow Hurts to throw the ball and double covered Ridley. Also, UAT's FG team helped with the muffed attempt.
-
au just beat us. controlled both lines. and bama's game plan was awful. kept going for big play when we had success running a methodical offense.
bottom line is au had a good plan and executed very well. bama was right opposite. don't feel cheated or robbed, just beat.
good win.
-
Nice post, rtf. Auburn is just a better team right now, period. In almost every phase.
-
they certainly looked like it saturday.
-
Auburn was a better team... they beat up right now.
what is the tale on the two RB's? did UGA just get lucky?
-
au just beat us. controlled both lines. and bama's game plan was awful. kept going for big play when we had success running a methodical offense.
bottom line is au had a good plan and executed very well. bama was right opposite. don't feel cheated or robbed, just beat.
good win.
GTFO with all that class and reasonableness. That chit ain't gonna cut it over at RBR.
-
GTFO with all that class and reasonableness. That chit ain't gonna cut it over at RBR.
that's why we keep you around.
-
Nice post, rtf. Auburn is just a better team right now, period. In almost every phase.
I want the real tigers credited with an assist, for doing to the Gumps what we did to the Barn in 2006. You wanna know why Kerryon ran into a charmin-soft LB corp all day?
Dear God, if we'd known it would help you we'd have just rolled over and taken our beating. As it is we lost anyway and wound up helping Auburn *pukes*
I hate everything.
-
Auburn was a better team... they beat up right now.
what is the tale on the two RB's? did UGA just get lucky?
Current story is that Pettway is out for Saturday, Martin is unlikely, but that KJ will play. We'll see...
-
What's up TK?
I picked Auburn in my pool and I'll pick them here. 27-24. So it is written.
Solid pick!
-
I want the real tigers credited with an assist, for doing to the Gumps what we did to the Barn in 2006. You wanna know why Kerryon ran into a charmin-soft LB corp all day?
Dear God, if we'd known it would help you we'd have just rolled over and taken our beating. As it is we lost anyway and wound up helping Auburn *pukes*
I hate everything.
Poor mouther ;)
-
Solid pick!
it was awful, despicable, deplorable, and worst of all correct.