CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: 847badgerfan on November 19, 2017, 07:23:10 PM
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I was thinking (dangerous).
When does PC start to get recognition as being among the best coaches in NCAA football? I noticed during the game yesterday the announcers fawning over Harbaugh and the TV showing his mug over and over and over again.
PC is a better coach, to anyone paying attention. He built a fantastic staff and that group has built a winner, top to bottom. They graduate their kids. They are humble to a fault. They love where they are.
So, when??
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Never heard of her J/K who do you think he is Kirk Ferentz?
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Agree totally Badge. He has been great from day one. Consistent, humble, and doing it without the 4-5 stars.
He is the kind of coach I would want my kid to play for.
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He seems like he'd rather stay humble, and fly under the radar.
Keeps the team hungry, always fighting.
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I was thinking (dangerous).
When does PC start to get recognition as being among the best coaches in NCAA football? I noticed during the game yesterday the announcers fawning over Harbaugh and the TV showing his mug over and over and over again.
PC is a better coach, to anyone paying attention. He built a fantastic staff and that group has built a winner, top to bottom. They graduate their kids. They are humble to a fault. They love where they are.
So, when??
Well, you half answer your own question with the humble to a fault part.
But I think the answer is more complicated. The hype comes from doing one of two things, reaching heights or saving programs from bad spots. Chryst hasn't yet won a conference title. He hasn't come to a downtrodden program and jumpstarted it (left Pitt early).
For better or worse, he's seen as the perfect cog in the Wisconsin machine. He took took over a program where the past two coaches won 73.1 and 73.9 percent of their games and went on to win 23.3 and 46.8 percent of their games at the next job. I hope to never find out if PC is just a cog or not. I want that machine humming with him at the helm.
And the other part is that PC's best tenets are more subtle. He's a gifted tactician, but you have to know what you're looking at. The way he uses motions, sets things up, the way he installs passing games complex for the college level and gets them going, all that is cool. But it doesn't pop the same as some hyper-quirky scheme or big rebuilding project. Win the conference a time or two, or just get a few more 10-plus win years under the belt, and it'll happen.
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PC is a better coach, to anyone paying attention.
This is absolute bs and prisoner of the moment over-reaction. Better coach than Harbaugh? I like PC a lot and Harbaugh has his faults, but c'mon. GTFO. Harbaugh has accomplished more in a longer head coaching career.
Chryst gets plenty of credit for the little he has accomplished. Which isn't much. He's having a great year, but he hasn't really done anything yet in his short coaching career.
Pittsburgh was a 6-7 program the year before he got there and he went 6-7, 7-6, 6-6. Didn't turn it around, just kept it at right around .500.
He took over a Wisconsin program that was 11-3 the year before he got there and has been a model of consistency for 20+ years, and went 10-3 his first year. He's 11-0 with the weakest schedule of any major P5 team in the nation. We'll see if he finishes the job by winning the B1G CCG against Ohio State.
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^^^ Exhibit A.
He's 11-0 with the weakest schedule of any major P5 team in the nation.
According to Sagarin, UW's schedule ranks 55. Michigan's is 45 due a boost from yesterday.
Bama's is 63. Washington is 58. LSU is 57. Colley ranks are similar. AH are similar. And on and on.
A pattern is developing?? Quit while you're behind, perhaps?
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Well, we've still got a few weeks to go, but I would think that he has the BCOY wrapped up at this point, does he not? I would think that would be a step in the right direction for the recognition you are looking for.
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^^^ Exhibit A.
He's 11-0 with the weakest schedule of any major P5 team in the nation.
According to Sagarin, UW's schedule ranks 55. Michigan's is 45 due a boost from yesterday.
Bama's is 63. Washington is 58. LSU is 57. Colley ranks are similar. AH are similar. And on and on.
A pattern is developing?? Quit while you're behind, perhaps?
This Wisconsin team has gotten plenty of comparisons to '15 Iowa, but there are quite a few differences.
'17 Wisconsin isn't just winning, it's winning convincingly. I don't think they've beaten anyone by fewer than two scores so far. '15 Iowa eked out win after win after win. And to be honest, they probably had no business beating Wisconsin that year. They lucked out with some timely turnovers.
And for the record, '17 Wisconsin would do to '15 Iowa what Stanford did in the Rose Bowl.
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Well, we've still got a few weeks to go, but I would think that he has the BCOY wrapped up at this point, does he not? I would think that would be a step in the right direction for the recognition you are looking for.
I'm guessing the award will go to Dantonio. This season for UW was kinda expected. MSU's was not. But that's OK.
COTY awards are nice and all that, but Urban has never won one (at least I don't think he has).
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The last OSU coach to win it was Earle Bruce, 1979.
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I guess OSU coaches are ineligible due to undefeated expectations every year?
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It's an award for the tallest midget.
Doesn't matter if OSU follows 6-7 with 12-0, or wins a NC with their third string QB. They are simply not eligible for the award.
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It's an award for the tallest midget.
Doesn't matter if OSU follows 6-7 with 12-0, or wins a NC with their third string QB. They are simply not eligible for the award.
It's an award for the team that most exceeds expectations. When you always have the most talent, it's tough the exceed them.
I do think Meyer should have won it in 2014. That one was weird. Jerry Kill went 8-5 for the second year in a row.
The whole Cardale Jones thing is irrelevant though. That award is named before the CCG, so Cardale hadn't won a game yet, let alone a national championship. I'm guessing it would have been different if it had.
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It is a weird award. "We have to think you suck and your team sucks and if we are wrong you get an award."
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Jeff Brohm deserves some serious consideration for B1G COTY, especially if he wins the bucket back this week.
Funny thing is that it's the defense that has been the most impressive.
Purdue is giving up 19 ppg in B1G play this year, after giving up 42 ppg in B1G play last year. The Boilers are currently #3 in scoring defense in conference play, after finishing dead last a season ago.
If it holds up against Indiana, it will go down as the biggest single season turnaround in points given up in conference games since Tulane in 01-02.
This is also the first time Purdue has held three straight opponents under 100 yards rushing since 2004.
Hazell only won 3 B1G games total in his 4 (ish) seasons. Brohm has won 3 B1G games already, and his going for 4 in his first season.
Brohm also had Blough at a 137.8 QBR (#4 B1G), up from 119.4 last year, before his injury.
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I like Brohm - if they win Saturday and make a bowl that's a heck of a turnaround from the depths that program had been in.
EDIT: This a a decent season for Dantonio IMO, given his standards. It's weird to give him an award for having a decent season because he had a bad season last year.
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It is a weird award. "We have to think you suck and your team sucks and if we are wrong you get an award."
Yeah, it's an extension of the everyone gets a trophy times that we live in.
Basically it's an acknowledgement by the Big Ten that OSU is head and shoulders above the rest of the league, including the other three helmet schools.
That recognition in and of itself is more rewarding than any COTY trophy would be.
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Yeah, it's an extension of the everyone gets a trophy times that we live in.
Basically it's an acknowledgement by the Big Ten that OSU is head and shoulders above the rest of the league, including the other three helmet schools.
That recognition in and of itself is more rewarding than any COTY trophy would be.
Well it's not this at all.
The other portion, yes
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1) harbaugh gets the TV time because, we'll, he's a bigger name, he's more out there in terms of his conference and the dude is freaking weird (mostly in a good way, but not always). but you know you'll get a reaction which makes for good TV
2) I can't believe I'm during this during THE GAME week, but I gotta agree with MDOT. Harbaugh is the better coach. he took a Standford program in shambles and turned it into a PAC 12 contender almost immediately, and he was able to do things like knock off USC during the pete carroll years, which was not easy. he turned around a crappy 49ers team and went to the super bowl. and when he left the 49ers went to crap. there's also a reason virtually every NFL team with an opening would be inquiring into his availability. because the dude can coach. I don't think he's underachieved at Michigan despite what some people would say, but I don't think he's overachieved either. he's basically done what he was supposed to do. plus, I think he's ever so close (1 miracle effed up punt against MSU, and 1 inch short against OSU) from being the UM "savior" everyone hoped for.
3) I would have no problem with Brohm being COY, I think he's done an outstanding job. But he would have to win this weekend to get the award. it's hard to overlook the loss to Rutgers, that would have made them bowl eligible. with that being said, if I had to vote, I go Dantonio. nobody wins more games as a DOG than that guy. The Penn St win put his team in at worst case a tie for 2nd in the east, when they were picked by most to finish 4th.
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I'd be surprised if it wasn't Dino this year.
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My vote would go for Chryst if he wraps up a 12-0 season by stomping the Illini- which is basically a given. How do you not give it to him? I agree with everyone, it's a weird award and Meyer got jobbed out of it in 2012 and 2014.
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My vote would go for Chryst if he wraps up a 12-0 season by stomping the Illini- which is basically a given. How do you not give it to him? I agree with everyone, it's a weird award and Meyer got jobbed out of it in 2012 and 2014.
Yeah, at a minimum Meyer should have got it in 2012. I can't remember who did get it to be honest. Kinda tells you what the award means to me, at least..
Chryst will not get it. He is only meeting expectations - which is still a good thing.
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Chryst will not get it. He is only meeting expectations - which is still a good thing.
that's part of the problem with these awards, I'm assuming Wisconsin have been favored (vegas favored) in every game this year correct? and will be through all regular season games, I wonder when the last time that's happened, if every for Wisconsin?
still, it's not easy making sure you guys show up as the favorite each and every week.
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My vote would go for Chryst if he wraps up a 12-0 season by stomping the Illini- which is basically a given. How do you not give it to him? I agree with everyone, it's a weird award and Meyer got jobbed out of it in 2012 and 2014.
I think Bill O'Brien winning it over Meyer in 2012 (8-4 with that team was impressive) was more defendable than Kill going 8-5 in like his 4th year in 2014 winning it over Meyer.
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If Brohm had won the Rutgers and Nebraska games, and won this weekend, yeah, that would be worthy of it. While Dantonio certainly has pulled the largest turnaround this year, his average has been much higher, to the point where last year is looking like an extreme outlier. Does that disqualify him this year? If he had won one more game this year, I bet he would have been in much better shape to get it.
Give it to Chryst. People expected Wisconsin to win the west, but NOBODY expected them to go undefeated in the process.
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When does PC start to get recognition as being among the best coaches in NCAA football?
when he beats the boat rower for an undefeated reg season, and wins the Big Ten Champ game to get to the playoff, and wins at least the semi in the playoff to get the the BIG GAME
that's when
If he wins the grand prize in a few weeks, of course he'll be seen as one of the elite coaches, perhaps even better than Harbaugh
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My vote would go for Chryst if he wraps up a 12-0 season by stomping the Illini- which is basically a given. How do you not give it to him? I agree with everyone, it's a weird award and Meyer got jobbed out of it in 2012 and 2014.
Rivalry week end they have the Goophs this Sat
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Give it to Chryst. People expected Wisconsin to win the west, but NOBODY expected them to go undefeated in the process.
Really? Nobody?
https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=238.0
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when he beats the boat rower for an undefeated reg season, and wins the Big Ten Champ game to get to the playoff, and wins at least the semi in the playoff to get the the BIG GAME
that's when
If he wins the grand prize in a few weeks, of course he'll be seen as one of the elite coaches, perhaps even better than Harbaugh
OK, so when Harbaugh accomplishes all this, will Harbaugh be seen as being better than Harbaugh too?
:67:
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Really? Nobody?
https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=238.0
Sure, but let's throw in your Purdue predictions at the same time and see how it averages out. :96:
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Give it to Chryst. People expected Wisconsin to win the west, but NOBODY expected them to go undefeated in the process.
agree, I heard a number of people think it was definitely obtainable before the season.
preseason the toughest road game was probably Nebraska, toughest home game UM.
looking at where we are now, wiscy has/had 5 road games against teams with a combined 19-38 record. toughest road game was probably IU and toughest home game northwestern.
I would guess even the most modest Wisconsin fan would be upset with a loss this year to anyone on that schedule.
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I guess OSU coaches are ineligible due to undefeated expectations every year?
This has been covered but yes.
As for this year, I think Ash should get serious consideration. The award is basically "Coach whose team most exceeded expectations" I think that is Ash.
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He's 11-0 with the weakest schedule of any major P5 team in the nation.
According to Sagarin, UW's schedule ranks 55. Michigan's is 45 due a boost from yesterday.
Bama's is 63. Washington is 58. LSU is 57. Colley ranks are similar. AH are similar. And on and on.
A pattern is developing?? Quit while you're behind, perhaps?
I'm not buying what you are selling.
I've been saying for weeks now that if I were grading B1G teams my grade for Wisconsin would be "Incomplete".
Per our current rankings, Wisconsin's most difficult road game was against #9 Nebraska.
Number of tougher road games than that and record in those games for top-7 B1G teams:
- UW: 0
- tOSU: 2, 0-1 (@Michigan to be played)
- PSU: 4, 2-2
- MSU: 3, 1-2
- NU: 1, 0-1
- M: 3, 1-2
- Iowa: 3, 0-3
Note that the other six have all played at least one tougher road game than Wisconsin's toughest and none of them have a winning record in such games with only PSU even managing .500.
It isn't Wisconsin's fault that three of four best teams in the league are in the B1G-E and that they miss all three or that they happen to get every decent conference opponent at home this year. It also isn't their fault that BYU completely tanked this year but these are still facts. Wisconsin has a shockingly easy schedule this year and that makes it very difficult to assess the quality of this Badger squad.
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Are we reaaaalllllllly sure that three of the four best teams are in the east? I mean, according to the transitive property, Purdue is like 50 points better than OSU when comparing their Iowa scores.
(...and before you go there, No, the Rutgers and Nebraska transitive properties are invalid.....because I said so.)
:)
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All road games are tough. I don't care who the other team is.
Also, I didn't make up the SOS rankings by the computer geeks I referenced.
So, I am not trying to sell anything. I made the post to refute the claim that UW's SOS was the worst of all the P5 schools. It isn't.
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Are we reaaaalllllllly sure that three of the four best teams are in the east? I mean, according to the transitive property, Purdue is like 50 points better than OSU when comparing their Iowa scores.
(...and before you go there, No, the Rutgers and Nebraska transitive properties are invalid.....because I said so.)
:)
Well, no. It is entirely possible that the three best teams are in the B1G-E ;)
I'm using Power Rankings votes and I agree with it.
FWIW: I've said it before but IMHO the problem with the transitive property isn't that the concept is bad, the problem is lack of data. Example:
According to scores against Ohio State, Iowa is 76 points better than Michigan State. But Michigan State beat Iowa H2H by a TD. The problem here is that Iowa was Ohio State's worst and Michigan State was Ohio State's best game. If you look at all of Iowa/MSU's common opponents you get a better picture:
- Ohio State: Iowa is lots better
- Penn State: MSU is slightly better
- Northwestern: Equal
- Minnesota: Iowa is slightly better
Three results suggest that the two teams are about equal and the other is clearly an outlier.
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All road games are tough. I don't care who the other team is.
Also, I didn't make up the SOS rankings by the computer geeks I referenced.
So, I am not trying to sell anything. I made the post to refute the claim that UW's SOS was the worst of all the P5 schools. It isn't.
My objection to the SoS rankings is the same as my objection to your comment that "all road games are tough". No, they aren't. Some teams are not good enough to beat Wisconsin no matter where the game is played.
Similarly, SoS rankings usually evaluate every game so that you get a bonus if you play (for example) team #75 instead of team #125.
I disagree with this simply because if you are a P5 Divisional Champion and an 11-0 CFP contender there really isn't any appreciable difference between playing #125 at home and playing #75 on the road. Either of those should be an EASY win.
What Wisconsin lacks is tests against high-end opponents (their best is either Northwestern or Michigan) and particularly road tests against quality opponents (their best is either Nebraska or Indiana).
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When does PC start to get recognition as being among the best coaches in NCAA football? I noticed during the game yesterday the announcers fawning over Harbaugh and the TV showing his mug over and over and over again.
PC is a better coach, to anyone paying attention. He built a fantastic staff and that group has built a winner, top to bottom. They graduate their kids. They are humble to a fault. They love where they are.
Chryst is underpraised. His hiring felt underwhelming in a par-for-the-course kind of way; amongst Badger fans I remember hesitation about his 19-19 Pitt record and whether King Barry had taken the easy way out to avoid pursuing higher profile targets.
But name anybody whose done well at Pitt the last 20 years? Walt Harris was fired in the on a BCS Season, Dave W recruited lights out and put together a decent W/L record when his guys were in place and was still shown the door, Graham bolted for ASU after one year, and a sound hire in Narduzzi starts next season at the top of the hot seat rankings.
Chryst's knowledge of the program pre-hire has turned out invaluable. He knows how to recruit over the unpredictable admissions department hurdles and develops talent across the board rather than relying on boom-or-bust recruiting (Sumlin, Sarkisian, etc). And his unassuming beta personality puts him under the shadow of the type-As, which leads me to...
...as far as being the better coach than Harbaugh, Chryst is doing a better job at Wisconsin than Harbaugh is a Michigan, which is slightly more focused than flatly saying either the better coach. Harbaugh's elite knack was proven in 8 years in the Bay Area and it hasn't carried through for him in Ann Arbor. To liberally use a baseball analogy, comparing Chryst and Harbaugh is like comparing two different styles of hitting. Harbaugh is a homerun hitter who's been striking out lately against the power pitchers whereas Chryst is a dependable base hitter with the higher BA. A slugger as opposed to a hard out.
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Chryst's knowledge of the program pre-hire has turned out invaluable. He knows how to recruit over the unpredictable admissions department hurdles
What are these hurdles you speak of?
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Chryst's knowledge of the program pre-hire has turned out invaluable. He knows how to recruit over the unpredictable admissions department hurdles
What are these hurdles you speak of?
Wisconsin has extremely high admission standards, which includes test scores, core courses taken and GPA. They are generally looking for a B GPA minimum with the 18 required core courses (the latter being the biggest killer for kids they can't get admitted) combined with the test scores. They are much more selective then the minimum NCAA requirements.
It is next to impossible to get a kid from the JuCo ranks who would not have qualified out of HS. The ones they do get are the exception and in those cases (Van Ginkle on this team) only went to JuCo after playing a year at a 4 year school. A late-bloomer, so to speak.
BB understood it too.
The last coach did not get it and, of course, he didn't last. Not being able to get Chris Evans (lost to MSU) and Jordan Stevenson (lost to UNL) admitted were the last straws for him.
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I agree with the proposition that Chryst has had a better run at Wisconsin than Harbaugh has had at Ttun. Two B1G West Titles vs three straight finishes of at least third place in the B1G East.
That said, Harbaugh clearly has the more impressive overall resume. Hands down.
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I agree with the proposition that Chryst has had a better run at Wisconsin than Harbaugh has had at Ttun. Two B1G West Titles vs three straight finishes of at least third place in the B1G East.
That said, Harbaugh clearly has the more impressive overall resume. Hands down.
Hands down? Not entirely sure about that. The NFL stuff is impressive, no question, as is building the program at Stanford. Now that all has to translate in the Big Ten. An entirely different animal.
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I had never known that Chryst had been an assistant coach in three different professional leagues. That's kind of interesting.
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OK, so when Harbaugh accomplishes all this, will Harbaugh be seen as being better than Harbaugh too?
:67:
he's year 3 into a re-build of a 5-7 program. He just lost 43 seniors and 11 starters to the NFL draft plus another 4-5 to UDFA contracts. Give him some more time, maybe? The guy was a miracle fluke bungled punt away from going 11-2 his first year and literally an inch away from beating Ohio State in Columbus and going to the B1G CCG last year.
Chryst walked into a much cushier situation. Wisconsin was 11-3 the year before he got there and their worst "down year" in the last 10-15 years is what- probably an 8 win season? Compare that kind of stability to Michigan, who since 2007 had been a complete disaster save for Hoke's absolute fluke of a first season. Chryst is also playing in the West- the weaker division on a week to week basis.
It's also pretty funny how you just completely dismiss everything Harbaugh has already done at San Diego, Stanford, and in the NFL. Actually it's hysterical.
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Hands down? Not entirely sure about that. The NFL stuff is impressive, no question, as is building the program at Stanford. Now that all has to translate in the Big Ten. An entirely different animal.
It's also pretty funny how you just completely dismiss everything Harbaugh has already done at San Diego, Stanford, and in the NFL. Actually it's hysterical.
See above, and stop laughing. Jeez.
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It's also pretty funny how you just completely dismiss everything Harbaugh has already done at San Diego, Stanford, and in the NFL. Actually it's hysterical.
See above, and stop laughing. Jeez.
yeah, because coaching the Big Ten is definitely tougher than coaching in the Pac 12 or the NFL. That different animal that is the Big Ten.
*Eye rolling emoji*.....where is the eye rolling emoji???
Big Ten has it's challenges just like the Pac 12 does, wouldn't say it's any easier or tougher to coach in one league over the other, and neither are remotely as difficult as coaching in the NFL where you have a salary cap, have to re-sign players and sign new F/A players and get them all to fit under a cap every year, and where you have 7 rounds to nail draft picks- and most teams flunk out on the draft picks. NFL is the ultimate parity league. It's designed for teams not to succeed.
College? Every year you get to sign 25-30 players, and a lot of the "helmet" teams like BAMA/OSU and big-name coaches like Meyer/Saban pick and choose who they want for the most part. They get 25-30 1st round picks every year.
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coaching is a "what have you done lately" job.
an impressive past is fine, but when is Jimmy going to meet expectations in Ann Arbor?
don't think many Michigan fans were thinking finishing in 4th in the East was how Big Jim would roll, because of his glorious past
year 3 and the offensive guy and QB whisperer has no QB and a lousy offense.
is year 4 the one where he shows that coaching pedigree?
yes, perhaps Chryst's transition was smoother, but you're as good as your record. especially after 3 or 4 seasons
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coaching is a "what have you done lately" job.
an impressive past is fine, but when is Jimmy going to meet expectations in Ann Arbor?
don't think many Michigan fans were thinking finishing in 4th in the East was how Big Jim would roll, because of his glorious past
year 3 and the offensive guy and QB whisperer has no QB and a lousy offense.
is year 4 the one where he shows that coaching pedigree?
yes, perhaps Chryst's transition was smoother, but you're as good as your record. especially after 3 or 4 seasons
What were Michigan/Harbaugh's expectations in 2017? Certainly wasn't competing for the playoffs and winning the B1G.
That was Ohio State and Penn State expectations seeing as how Ohio State made the playoffs last year and Penn State won the B1G last year and both of those teams returned damn near everyone.
This fantasy that Harbaugh isn't living up to expectations is just that- pure fantasy.
Did anyone expect him to really win the B1G his first year taking over what had been a dumpster fire program? No. Of course not. Fluke punt play away with 8 seconds left in a game from being 11-2 that first year. Inch away from going to the B1G CG last year. That wasn't a 1st down. Game should've been over. It wasn't. Breaks don't all go your way.
Nobody expected him them to win the conference when they lost more to graduation/NFL than any team in the conference.
And it looks like he just might have his QB of the future in the Frosh Peters. By far the best looking QB he's had in his time at Michigan. Jim better not EFF that up by trying to give Wilton that job back. Wilton is ass.
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The Madman has a lot of work to do. I will say that he did a great job with Hoke's recruits. Let's see what he can do with his own. So far, ???
Seems to me he needs to adjust his staff. Of course, that is part of being a great head coach.
Where the hell is dudekd?
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My objection to the SoS rankings is the same as my objection to your comment that "all road games are tough". No, they aren't. Some teams are not good enough to beat Wisconsin no matter where the game is played.
Similarly, SoS rankings usually evaluate every game so that you get a bonus if you play (for example) team #75 instead of team #125.
I disagree with this simply because if you are a P5 Divisional Champion and an 11-0 CFP contender there really isn't any appreciable difference between playing #125 at home and playing #75 on the road. Either of those should be an EASY win.
What Wisconsin lacks is tests against high-end opponents (their best is either Northwestern or Michigan) and particularly road tests against quality opponents (their best is either Nebraska or Indiana).
Per S&P+
UW's top wins
17, 38, 49. That system has FIU a little overrated (16th) because of the run of stupid dominance it's been on.
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he's year 3 into a re-build of a 5-7 program. He just lost 43 seniors and 11 starters to the NFL draft plus another 4-5 to UDFA contracts. Give him some more time, maybe? The guy was a miracle fluke bungled punt away from going 11-2 his first year and literally an inch away from beating Ohio State in Columbus and going to the B1G CCG last year.
Chryst walked into a much cushier situation. Wisconsin was 11-3 the year before he got there and their worst "down year" in the last 10-15 years is what- probably an 8 win season? Compare that kind of stability to Michigan, who since 2007 had been a complete disaster save for Hoke's absolute fluke of a first season. Chryst is also playing in the West- the weaker division on a week to week basis.
It's also pretty funny how you just completely dismiss everything Harbaugh has already done at San Diego, Stanford, and in the NFL. Actually it's hysterical.
MDot, buddy, friend. Here's the thing. You're a man prone to trafficking in hyperbole. Things cannot be good or bad, they must be the best or they must be trash. Things cannot be ripe for turnaround, they must be trash fires. It's not an uncommon viewpoint, but it means that when you get all chest-y about that "weakest schedule of any major P5 team in the nation" bull-jive, the 3rd-(and 4th-)place jokes will come in force.
So lets start.
Michigan's rank in starz in Year 1: 9th. Year 2: 8th. Year 3: Fell all the way to ... well, 7th.
That's better than every non-OSU team in the league. And why am I giving him more time? Urban went 12-0 a year off a scandal-fueled coach firing. Tress took over a 6-6 team and won it all two years later. Nick Saban made the Sugar Bowl. Hell, Franklin went to the dang Rose Bowl in year 3, and he took over a far more troubled program than "Brady Hoke left the cupboards stocked"
Did Chryst walk into a better spot? Outside talent, probably. I'm sorry some solid regional school has its s--- together more than a blue blood. I will weep for them.
Those other stops are good. His success at the bottom rung of FCS is nice. It's all been over-mythologized (another story for another day), but it's been good. I hope all that helps Michigan.
It's interesting, what Harbs has done in Ann Arbor is this: he's built teams better than their record. What that means is, he's been a close game loser. Strong teams tend to win big, and when the lose, they lose small. Jimmy has don't this, but it means he's a man whose teams have underperformed how good they were. In the stats world, that's not a bad thing. In the chesty, loogit how great my guy is, that's a reason to wait until the good results actually come in.
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Sure, but let's throw in your Purdue predictions at the same time and see how it averages out. :96:
I'm not tootin my own horn on predictions. Although I think whatever my Purdue prediction was is closer than my 4-8 MSU prediction was. I just think quite a few people assumed they'd go undefeated, because they didn't play anything resembling a difficult road game.
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I was thinking (dangerous).
When does PC start to get recognition as being among the best coaches in NCAA football? I noticed during the game yesterday the announcers fawning over Harbaugh and the TV showing his mug over and over and over again.
PC is a better coach, to anyone paying attention. He built a fantastic staff and that group has built a winner, top to bottom. They graduate their kids. They are humble to a fault. They love where they are.
So, when??
You are thinking dangerously? Me too!
My immediate reflexive reply is: There will be openings at Arkansas, and Nebraska this year. Maybe he can find another job. ;(
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*Eye rolling emoji*.....where is the eye rolling emoji???
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Well if I'm Paul Chryst I wouldn't sweat C.O.T.Y..It usually follows a less than stellar campaign
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You are thinking dangerously? Me too!
My immediate reflexive reply is: There will be openings at Arkansas, and Nebraska this year. Maybe he can find another job. ;(
How much of Chryst's success is because of King Barry? Will PC keep churning out 10-2 seasons after KB hangs it up as AD?
It's a fair question because we all saw how Bert and Gerry fared after they left Madtown.
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UW has had their program in a good place for quite some time.They'll be fine when BA hangs them up and PC will still be in place when that happens IMO
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Agreed, PC has it much easier taking over a solid program than building it back up. That, I have my doubts on.
It's interesting to think what the CFB scape would look like had King Barry remained in Iowa City a couple more years. Maybe Hayden Fry would have passed the torch to Barry in the mid '90s as a reward for his loyalty. Or maybe he would have been on top of Nebraska's list to replace ole Doc Tom.
He would have done very well regardless of where he coached.
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Bill Connelly, creator of the S&P+ with some perspective....LINK (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/11/21/16683112/michigan-wolverines-football-2017-jim-harbaugh)
In the offseason, we peer into the future. We see the big picture. If you’re going to field a young team, you know that there will be ups and downs, even if there’s a lot of talent. Toss in a couple of quarterback injuries, and things could get even more volatile in the short-term.
This past offseason, we knew what to expect from Michigan. The Wolverines’ two-deep had been set on fire, and even with great recruiting, the 2017 season would be about building for 2018 (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/11/20/16676414/michigan-wisconsin-fan-reaction-week-12).
It might be difficult for UM to progress in 2017. The Wolverines must replace their leading rusher, four of their top five receiving targets, three all-conference offensive linemen, their top three defensive linemen, their best linebacker, and their top five defensive backs, including nickel back and Heisman finalist Jabrill Peppers (http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/players/263163/jabrill-peppers).
S&P+ loves what Harbaugh has done but projects the Wolverines to fall to about 10th.
From a macro view, the rebuild is going well and leading to one hell of a 2018. From a narrative perspective, though, 2017 will be interesting.
Harbaugh has had an incredible career despite a list of almosts — almost took Stanford to the BCS title game, almost won the Super Bowl, almost got Michigan over the hump — and will likely win even bigger at UM, but that will probably have to wait another year.
S&P+ projected Michigan to win, on average, about 8.9 games in 2017. If I had taken returning starting quarterback Wilton Speight (http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/players/246698/wilton-speight) — lost for the season with injury back in September — out of the equation, their projected wins probably would have fallen to about 8.5.
They are currently 8-3 following a loss to Wisconsin, and they will probably be 8-4 after Ohio State leaves town this coming Saturday evening.
Oh, the horror. Oh, the crushing disappointment.
When I wrote, “From a narrative perspective, though, 2017 will be interesting,” this is almost exactly what I meant. When we peer into the future, we can stomach some disappointments in the name of long-term success. When we’re living through those disappointments in the present tense, however, it feels like the sky is falling.
The defense is performing almost exactly as projected; Michigan was projected fifth in Def. S&P+ and is eighth. The offense has been a bit worse than expected (projected 40th, currently 69th), and Speight’s injury hasn’t been the only cause. But it hasn’t helped, and it probably isn’t a coincidence that the Wolverines’ hopes of an upset in Madison ended virtually the moment that emerging QB Brandon Peters (http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/players/278696/brandon-peters) also went down.
As for 2018:
Here’s how my 2017 Michigan preview ended, by the way:
You can’t take a “wait ‘til next year” approach when you’re still projected as a top-10 team, but if Michigan does lose a couple of late games and keep the “Never better than third in the Big Ten East!” meme alive, you should get your laughs in while you can. Because this program is probably a year away from ignition.
We can proclaim this season a disappointment if we really want to. We can use a competitive road loss to one of the best Wisconsin teams of all time as proof that Jim Harbaugh can’t seem to win when it really counts, if we are dying to further that narrative.
But 2017 was always going to be about building for 2018, and this season has gone as planned, give or take a couple of QB knocks.
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There is always next year. Or the next. Or maybe the next.
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I think they have to make the playoffs for Chryst to get his due. Simply being good at Wisconsin makes him the same as the three coaches before him. Contending for the national title puts him up with the top coaches in the B1G (Urbs, Dantonio).
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How many current coaches have won Big Ten Titles?
Dantonio, Meyer, Franklin, Ferentz... all I can think of off the top of my head.
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well, Jimmy isn't on the hot seat, so he will get his chance to prove himself in 2018 and 2019
3rd or 4th in the East going to be enough in 18 and 19?
the thread was regarding Chryst, someone stated HArbaugh was better
Chryst beat Harbaugh head to head with lesser recruits. Harbaugh has the younger, less experienced team, but this was game #11 of the season not, the 2nd or 3rd week.
Chryst will be playing for the Big Ten Title as an undefeated
the question isn't who was the better coach the past 15 seasons
Does Chryst need to get more google hits than Jimmy to get his due respect?