CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: MaximumSam on November 19, 2017, 07:53:37 AM
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1. Wisconsin (Beat Michigan 24-10, next @Minnesota) Truthfully, there was a point in the third quarter where it looked like Wisconsin was the overrated patsy that softened up on corpses. Then Hornibrook turned into Brett Favre and the offensive line ground Michigan into goo. The win looked like a lot of their other wins, which is why running the ball and playing defense can get you far.
2. Ohio State (Beat Illinois 52-14, next up @Michigan) Still struggling with where to place them. I think they are a really good team. They've had a couple of really bad games. So... Anyways, Illinois might as well have been a JV team. Will see against Michigan if they are still committed when a team punches them in the mouth.
3. Penn State (Beat Nebraska 56-44, next @Maryland) What the hell happened here? I saw PSU up huge in the first half and stopped paying attention. Was this a game? Giving up 44 to Nebraska isn't ideal under any circumstances, but they should be fine against punchless Maryland.
4. Michigan State (Beat Maryland 17-7, next up @Rutgers) The rain fell and MSU dominated. Well, not really dominated, but they took a lead then dared Maryland to try and score, just like when they beat Michigan. A pretty good season all in all for Sparty, but don't sleep on Rutgers.
5. Michigan (Lost to Wisconsin 24-10, next up OSU) Looked the part for much of the game, but lost Peters and the defense faded. Nothing to be ashamed of here, except that Michigan just hasn't been in the class of the better teams, which is not what their fans want. They get another chance Saturday.
6. Northwestern (Beat Minnesota 39-0, next @Illinois) Hell of a dominant win. Tinkered with moving them up but think I'd favor Michigan on a neutral field. In a different year they are competing for the B1G crown.
7. Iowa (Lost to Purdue 24-15, next up @Nebraska) What the hell do I do with this team. Still keeping them here because they walloped OSU and beat ISU, but, geez Iowa.
8. Purdue (Beat Iowa 24-15, next up Indiana) Can they squeeze a bowl game out of this season. An Indiana battle next week will tell us.
9. Indiana (Beat Rutgers 41-0, next @Purdue) Can they squeeze a bowl game out of this season. An Indiana battle next week will tell us.
10. Minnesota (Lost to Northwestern 39-0, next Wisconsin) Well, that escalated quickly. Not much prayer of beating Wisconsin, but keep Rowing That Boat.
11. Nebraska (Lost to PSU 56-44, next up Iowa) Defense takes its turn to be truly awful.
12. Rutgers (Lost to Indiana 41-0, next up MSU) Well, they are better than last year.
13. Maryland (Lost to MSU 17-7, next up PSU) Weren't better than last year.
14. Illinois (Lost to OSU 56-14, next Northwestern) Blech
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Michigan
7. Iowa
8. Purdue
9. Maryland
10. Nebraska
11. Indiana
12. Rutgers
13. Minnesota
14. Illinois
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http://btn.com/2017/11/18/big-ten-power-rankings-wisconsin-ohio-state-continue-to-lead-way-in-post-week-12-list/
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1 Badgers
2 Buckeyes
3 Penn St
4 Northwestern
5 Michigan St
6 Iowa
7 Michigan
8 Nebraska
9 Purdue
10 Indiana
11 Maryland
12 Rutgers
13 Minnesota
14 Illinois
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Not much changed this last week. Yes, Iowa lost to Purdue, but that's the old rule for Iowa. They always beat somebody they shouldn't and always lose to somebody they shouldn't, and then end up 7-5.
1. WISC
2. OSU
3. MSU
4. PSU
5. NW
6. Iowa
7. Mich
8. Pur
9. Indy
10. Neb
11. Rut
12. MD
13. Minn
14. ILL
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Now adding medina's bonus points system.
1. WISCONSIN (1) - 3-0 (W - NW, IA, UM) (Bonus: +2)
2. PENN STATE (4) - 3-2 (W - IA, NW, UM; L - OSU, MSU) (Bonus: +4)
3. OHIO STATE (2) - 2-1 (W - PSU, MSU; L - IA)
4. MICHIGAN STATE (3) - 3-2 (W - IA, UM, PSU; L - NW, OSU)
5. NORTHWESTERN (5) - 2-2 (W - IA, MSU; L - UW, PSU) (Bonus: -1)
6. MICHIGAN (7) - 0-3 (L - MSU, PSU, UW) (Bonus: -3)
7. IOWA (6) - 1-4 (W - OSU; L - PSU, MSU, NW, UW) (Bonus: -1 & Lost to a bottom 7 team)
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8. PURDUE (11) - 2-2 (W - MN, IL; L - RU, NEB) - Beat a top 7 team
9. NEBRASKA (8) - 3-1 (W - RU, IL, PU; L - MN)
10. MARYLAND (10) - 2-1 (W - MN, IN; L - RU)
11. INDIANA (13) - 2-1 (W - IL, RU; L - MD)
12. RUTGERS (9) - 3-2 (W - IL, PU, MD; L - NEB, IU)
13. MINNESOTA (12) - 2-2 (W - IL, NEB; L - MD, PU)
14. ILLINOIS (14) - 0-5 (L - NEB, RU, MN, PU, IU)
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I'm certainly not the first to say this, but I continue to be completely baffled by the Iowa/Ohio State result.
Looking at Ohio State's other seven games:
- Against MSU: Ohio State looked like the best team in the B1G by far.
- Against Rutgers: Ohio State looked like the best team in the B1G by far.
- Against Maryland: Ohio State looked like the best team in the B1G by far.
- Against Nebraska: Ohio State looked like the best team in the B1G by far.
- Against Indiana: Ohio State looked like one of the top-3 teams in the B1G (same result as UW, equivalent to PSU).
- Against Illinois: Ohio State looked like the best team in the B1G.
Looking at Iowa's other seven games:
- Against Wisconsin: Iowa did not even look like a top-7 team.
- Against Penn State: Iowa looked like a top-tier top-7 team.
- Against Michigan State: Iowa looked like a middle-of-the-pack top-7 team.
- Against Northwestern: Iowa looked like a a lower-tier top-7 team.
- Against Minnesota: Iowa barely looked like a top-7 team.
- Against Purdue: Iowa did not even look like a top-7 team.
- Against Illinois: Iowa looked like a top-tier top-7 team.
Then, for some reason, when Ohio State played Iowa the Hawkeyes looked like the best team in the B1G by far and the Buckeyes didn't even look like a top-7 team. There are no results in any of the 14 other B1G games played by tOSU and Iowa that fit with the Iowa/Ohio State result.
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I don't know what to do with Iowa anymore either. I also see I made a mistake in my post above that I will fix with regard to them.
I feel like they are good, and I also feel like they are bad. I actually thought about moving Purdue above them, into the top 7.
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Well, at #29, the composite computer rankings do have Iowa as the best 5 loss team in the country, so there's that.
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Using the top-7/bottom-7 and bonus points as elaborated in ELA's rankings:
- Penn State: I didn't hold the 12 point win over UNL against them because they were up by 32 before giving up 20 points late.
- Wisconsin: Another week another win. They keep on keeping on.
- Ohio State: I was conflicted on the top-3 and I think they are VERY close. Ohio State has the H2H win over PSU and has looked generally better against the lower-tier teams but they have that ugly loss.
- Michigan State: pretty clearly between the three above and the three below
- Northwestern: VERY close with
- Michigan: No bad losses or good wins.
- Iowa: The loss to bottom-7 Purdue drops them to the bottom of the top-7.
- Purdue: The win over top-7 Iowa moves them to the top of the bottom-7.
- Nebraska: Despite the "WTF" loss to Minnesota, I think they are better than those below.
- Indiana: Even though they lost H2H to UMD, I think they have a better profile.
- Maryland: Honestly not bad considering all the injuries. What could have been?
- Rutgers: Ash for COTY.
- Minnesota: Despite the "WTF" win over UNL.
- Illinois: Obviously.
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Its like Iowa made a deal with devil, and agreed to take all the combined offense they would normally have against NW, Minn, OSU, Wisc and Purdue, and instead get it all in 1 game against OSU.
BUT why Iowa would make a deal like that, makes no sense.
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S&P+
1. OSU (1)
2. Wisconsin (4)
3. PSU (8)
4. Michigan (17)
5. MSU (35)
6. Purdue (38)
7. Northwestern (49)
8. Indiana (51)
9. Iowa (62)
10. Minnesota (85)
11. Nebraska (96)
12. Rutgers (107)
13. Maryland (109)
14. Illinois (118)
- Illinois still ahead of Oregon State and Kansas as the worst P5 team
- MSU dropped like a rock after that OSU game. I think they were right around Michigan before then
- Wiscy with the #1 defense
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I'm certainly not the first to say this, but I continue to be completely baffled by the Iowa/Ohio State result.
Looking at Ohio State's other seven games:
- Against MSU: Ohio State looked like the best team in the B1G by far.
- Against Rutgers: Ohio State looked like the best team in the B1G by far.
- Against Maryland: Ohio State looked like the best team in the B1G by far.
- Against Nebraska: Ohio State looked like the best team in the B1G by far.
- Against Indiana: Ohio State looked like one of the top-3 teams in the B1G (same result as UW, equivalent to PSU).
- Against Illinois: Ohio State looked like the best team in the B1G.
Looking at Iowa's other seven games:
- Against Wisconsin: Iowa did not even look like a top-7 team.
- Against Penn State: Iowa looked like a top-tier top-7 team.
- Against Michigan State: Iowa looked like a middle-of-the-pack top-7 team.
- Against Northwestern: Iowa looked like a a lower-tier top-7 team.
- Against Minnesota: Iowa barely looked like a top-7 team.
- Against Purdue: Iowa did not even look like a top-7 team.
- Against Illinois: Iowa looked like a top-tier top-7 team.
Then, for some reason, when Ohio State played Iowa the Hawkeyes looked like the best team in the B1G by far and the Buckeyes didn't even look like a top-7 team. There are no results in any of the 14 other B1G games played by tOSU and Iowa that fit with the Iowa/Ohio State result.
A lot of teams play out of their minds when they go up against OSU.
Indiana, PSU and Iowa all threw everything they had at the Buckeyes.
Indiana and PSU ran out of gas down the stretch. Iowa stomped on the accelerator.
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Week 12 composite computer rankings (102 computers - last week in parentheses)
1. Alabama (1)
2. WISCONSIN (3)
3. Miami (4)
4. Clemson (2)
5. Georgia (5)
6. Notre Dame (6)
7. Oklahoma (9)
8. OHIO STATE (7)
9. PENN STATE (8)
10. Auburn (10)
11. Central Florida (11)
12. TCU (14)
13. USC (12)
14. Washington (15)
15. Mississippi State (18)
16. MICHIGAN (16)
17. Washington State (17)
18. Memphis (24)
19. Oklahoma State (13)
20. Virginia Tech (21)
21. Stanford (22)
22. NORTHWESTERN (-)
23. MICHIGAN STATE (20)
24. LSU (25)
25. Boise State (-)
28. Iowa (23)
44. Purdue (61)
57. Indiana (67)
68. Minnesota (63)
71. Maryland (69)
72. Nebraska (73)
91. Rutgers (82)
110. Illinois (110)
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1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Michigan State
5. Northwestern
6. Michigan
7. Iowa
8. Purdue
9. Nebraska
9. Maryland
11. Indiana
12. Rutgers
13. Minnesota
14. Illinois
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I like Fearless's list with a few changes at the bottom:
1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Michigan State
5. Northwestern
6. Michigan
7. Iowa
8. Purdue
9. Nebraska
9. Maryland
11. Indiana
12. Minnesota
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois
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1) Wisconsin - B1G's playoff pony to bet on
2) Ohio State - probably would love to have the Iowa game back
3) Penn State - the Saquon-for-Heisman talk has quieted down some, but still a strong team
4) Michigan State - a quietly solid season
5) Northwestern - gets better as the season goes on
6) Michigan - the offense needs some major work
7) Iowa - See Michigan. Also, needs a punter.
8) Purdue - flat-out whooped Iowa, and about to face IU for a bowl bid
9) Indiana - also has a bowl bid on the line
10) Maryland - I have no idea what to make of this team
11) Minnesota - needs to beat Wisconsin to go to a bowl game. Probably not going to happen this year
12) Nebraska - Riley's done, but would love to send him out on a high note
13) Rutgers - there's some fight in this team at least
14) Illinois - not sure if Lovie gets another year or not
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Here are the results:
| Team/Poster | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range | LW AVG | LW Rank | Chg Avg | Chg Rank |
| UW | 1.22 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.18 | 1 | (0.04) | 0 |
| tOSU | 2.11 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2.36 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 |
| PSU | 2.78 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2.64 | 3 | (0.14) | 0 |
| MSU | 4.11 | 4 | 0.60 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4.00 | 4 | (0.11) | 0 |
| NU | 4.89 | 5 | 0.60 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 5.45 | 5 | 0.57 | 0 |
| M | 6.11 | 6 | 0.60 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 6.36 | 7 | 0.25 | 1 |
| Iowa | 6.78 | 7 | 0.44 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 6.00 | 6 | (0.78) | -1 |
| PU | 8.11 | 8 | 0.33 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 10.91 | 12 | 2.80 | 4 |
| UNL | 9.67 | 9 | 1.22 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 10.27 | 11 | 0.61 | 2 |
| IU | 10.11 | 10 | 0.93 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 11.00 | 13 | 0.89 | 3 |
| MD | 10.67 | 11 | 1.22 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 10.45 | 9 | (0.21) | -2 |
| RU | 12.11 | 12 | 0.60 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 10.09 | 8 | (2.02) | -4 |
| MN | 12.33 | 13 | 1.12 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 10.27 | 10 | (2.06) | -3 |
| ILL | 14.00 | 14 | - | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 14 | - | 0 |
And here is the SoS/performance chart:
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
| . | Team | UW | tOSU | PSU | MSU | NU | M | Iowa | PU | UNL | IU | MD | RU | MN | ILL | Team | . |
| 1 | UW | n/a | miss | miss | miss | L by 9, A | L by 14, A | L by 24, A | L by 8, A | L by 21, H | L by 28, H | L by 25, A | miss | 11/25, H | L by 14, H | UW | 1 |
| 2 | tOSU | miss | n/a | L by 1, A | L by 45, A | miss | 11/25, H | W by 31, H | miss | L by 42, H | L by 28, H | L by 48, A | L by 56, H | miss | L by 38, A | tOSU | 2 |
| 3 | PSU | miss | W by 1, H | n/a | W by 3, H | L by 24, H | L by 29, A | L by 2, H | miss | L by 12, A | L by 31, A | 11/25, H | L by 29, A | miss | miss | PSU | 3 |
| 4 | MSU | miss | W by 45, H | L by 3, A | n/a | W in OT, H | L by 4, H | L by 7, A | miss | miss | L by 8, A | L by 10, A | 11/25, H | L by 3, H | miss | MSU | 4 |
| 5 | NU | W by 9, H | miss | W by 24, A | L in OT, A | n/a | miss | L in OT, A | L by 10, A | L in OT, H | miss | L by 16, H | miss | L by 39, A | 11/25, H | NU | 5 |
| 6 | M | W by 14, H | 11/25, A | W by 29, H | W by 4, A | miss | n/a | miss | L by 18, H | miss | L in OT, H | L by 25, H | L by 21, A | L by 23, A | miss | M | 6 |
| 7 | Iowa | W by 24, H | L by 31, A | W by 2, A | W by 7, H | W in OT, H | miss | n/a | W by 9, A | 11/24, H | miss | miss | miss | L by 7, A | L by 29, A | Iowa | 7 |
| 8 | PU | W by 8, H | miss | miss | miss | W by 10, H | W by 18, A | L by 9, H | n/a | W by 1, A | 11/25, A | miss | W by 2, H | L by 14, A | L by 19, A | PU | 8 |
| 9 | UNL | W by 21, A | W by 42, A | W by 12, H | miss | W in OT, A | miss | 11/24, A | L by 1, H | n/a | miss | miss | L by 10, A | W by 33, H | L by 22, H | UNL | 9 |
| 10 | IU | W by 28, A | W by 28, A | W by 31, H | W by 8, H | miss | W in OT, A | miss | 11/25, H | miss | n/a | W by 3, H | L by 41, A | miss | L by 10, H | IU | 10 |
| 11 | MD | W by 25, H | W by 48, H | 11/25, A | W by 10, H | W by 16, A | W by 25, A | miss | miss | miss | L by 3, A | n/a | W by 7, H | L by 7, H | miss | MD | 11 |
| 12 | RU | miss | W by 56, A | W by 29, H | 11/25, A | miss | W by 21, H | miss | L by 2, A | W by 10, H | W by 41, H | L by 7, H | n/a | miss | L by 11, H | RU | 12 |
| 13 | MN | 11/25, A | miss | miss | W by 3, A | W by 39, H | W by 23, H | W by 7, H | W by 14, H | L by 33, A | miss | W by 7, A | miss | n/a | L by 7, A | MN | 13 |
| 14 | ILL | W by 14, A | W by 38, H | miss | miss | 11/25, A | miss | W by 29, H | W by 19, H | W by 22, A | W by 10, A | miss | W by 11, A | W by 7, H | n/a | ILL | 14 |
| . | Team | UW | tOSU | PSU | MSU | NU | M | Iowa | PU | UNL | IU | MD | RU | MN | ILL | Team | . |
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
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Looking at the top-3 and looking forward to next week:
If Wisconsin (@MN) or Penn State (@UMD) were to lose, those would be MAJOR upsets. Barring that, the main thing I look at when trying to rank the top-3 is their games against top-7 opposition:
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| . | Team | UW | tOSU | PSU |
| 1 | UW | n/a | miss | miss |
| 2 | tOSU | miss | n/a | L by 1, A |
| 3 | PSU | miss | W by 1, H | n/a |
| 4 | MSU | miss | W by 45, H | L by 3, A |
| 5 | NU | W by 9, H | miss | W by 24, A |
| 6 | M | W by 14, H | 11/25, A | W by 29, H |
| 7 | Iowa | W by 24, H | L by 31, A | W by 2, A |
Wisconsin has three such games and they are 3-0 but all three were at home. Additionally, they didn't look nearly as good as Penn State against either Northwestern or Michigan.
Penn State has five such games and they are 3-2 including 2-2 on the road and 1-0 at home.
Ohio State has three such games and they are 2-1 including 2-0 at home and 0-1 on the road.
I currently have the teams ranked as:
- Penn State
- Wisconsin
- Ohio State
Barring a major upset of either Wisconsin or Penn State or an Ohio State blowout of Michigan I don't think there will be any reason to change that next week.