CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: MaximumSam on April 27, 2020, 10:42:02 AM
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With the assist from BBTS, was thinking about doing rankings by unit for the 2020 season (if there is one). Will need some participation to at least figure out who is returning for each team. But anyway I'm on rotation at work but there isn't much to do so I'll waste time doing this. Presumed starter in bold.
1. Ohio State: Justin Fields, Gunnar Hoak, Jack Miller, CJ Stroud
This one is probably a no brainer. Fields was all-time awesome last year, and he had only been on campus for a few months. He is destined to be the first or second quarterback in the draft next year absent some crazy injury/huge step back. The backup situation is probably better. No more Chugz, but Gunnar Hoak is on his second year in the system and the other two are highly touted freshmen.
2. Minnesota: Tanner Morgan, Zach Annexstad
Fairly easy call here. Morgan was the leading passer last year in the conference, and his rating was just a touch behind Fields. While he lost his safety valve Tyler Johnson, the Gophs return a ton of offense so there is no reason to think he will take a step back, with one caveat, as the OC Kirk Ciarocca went to Penn State. Annexstad was in competition for the starting job before injury, don't know much about him.
3. Indiana: Michael Penix, Jack Tuttle
Gets tougher here. Penix might be the clear third best quarterback - he is truly dynamic running and throwing. But he couldn't stay healthy last year. Peyton Ramsey kept Indiana in the running, but he transferred to Northwestern and the new backup is Jack Tuttle. Tuttle was fairly highly rated recruit from California who originally played at Utah before transferring. Also gone is last year's offensive coordinator Kalen Deboer, replaced by former UM quarterback Nick Sheridan, so there is potential for a step back.
4. Penn State: Sean Clifford, Will Levis
A lot of these guys are in the mushy middle - went with PSU's group here mostly on the addition of a new OC who will hopefully make things a little better for the talented quarterbacks. Clifford is the entrenched starter, though Levis looked pretty good against OSU last year. They return a lot of offense around them - biggest question mark on Clifford is his accuracy. A sub 60% completion percentage needs to come up a tick, especially with Hamler gone.
5. Wisconsin: Jack Coan, Graham Mertz
Coan was the quintessential Wiscy quarterback last year. He completed passes (near 70%, seventh in the country) and didn't throw picks. Still, there was a feeling that he struggled to make big plays. With Jonathan Taylor and Bo Cephus gone, he might need to be a bit more dynamic, so we shall see how that goes. Mertz was a top 100 recruit who will put some pressure on Coan if Wisconsin doesn't look right.
6. Michigan: Dylan McCaffrey, Joe Milton, Cade McNamara
Michigan is tough to rank because they don't have a clear starter yet. McCaffery is probably the favorite, though Milton is a real threat. Still, they are all pretty strong recruits, and Michigan's system has gotten quarterback friendly, so whoever starts should be pretty good. But not sure who that will be yet. Also a question as to when a starter would be named and whether the other guy would leave.
7. Nebraska: Adrian Martinez, Noah Vedral, Luke MCCaffrey
Also a tough one. Adrian Martinez is a talented kid, and Scott Frost is a good coach, and this should have worked a lot better than it did last year. Martinez struggled to stay healthy and struggled when he played, so it's a fair question of whether he will even be the Husker QB this year. On paper, this should be great, but we said that last year and that didn't get very far.
8. Northwestern: woah boy Peyton Ramsey, Aidan Smith, Hunter Johnson, TJ Green, Andrew Marty, Carl Richardson
So grading these by unit, Northwestern has by far the most quarterbacks. They could sustain like 4 ACL tears and still trot out a starting quarterback. Ramsey has had proven success and it seems unlikely he would have transferred there without some thought he would get the starting job. Last year TJ Green was the starter until he had a season ending injury the first game. Johnson and Smith played and were bad. Marty ended up the starter in the end. Northwestern is getting a new OC so they might look a bit different as well.
9. Purdue: Jack Plummer, , Austin Burton, Aidan O'Connell, Paul Piferi, Michael Alaimo
Purdue still trying to end their musical chair quarterback play. Plummer looks like the starter wasn't bad last year as a freshman. He (and all of Purdue) struggled to stay healthy, leading to playing time for O'Connell. Notified that Austin Burton has joined the team as a transfer from UCLA. He was their backup last year, and looking at his stats he might be all right. Completed around 69% and a lot of short passes, which might fit Purdue's offense of get the ball to twitchy guys.
10. Illinois: Brandon Peters, Matt Robinson, Isaiah Williams
Peters wasn't terrible last year, and Illinois got enough to make a bowl game. He has had concussion issues, and his backups were bad. So bad I struggled to figure out who is even on the team.
11. Iowa: Spencer Petras, Alex Padilla, Deuce Hogan
Nate Stanley is finally gone, leading to some new Iowa QB play. Your guess is as good as mine here.
12. Michigan State: Rocky Lombardi, Theo Day, Payton Thorne
Where are you ELA? Who is the quarterback this year? I still have visions of Rocky Lombardi coming in against Ohio State, looking like a cross between Tim Tebow and Hulk Hogan. Apparently that was the last time he looked good in a football game
13. Rutgers: Johnny Langan, Art Sitkowski
Sitkowski is back after sitting out most of last season with a thought towards transfer. Langan is also back after starting most of their games, though he was very bad. We shall see if Schiano can turn this around.
14. Maryland: Josh Jackson, Lance LeGendre
How to be last? Have two guys on the roster and no incoming freshmen. Josh Jackson was bad last year, completing a terrible 47% on his passes. LeGendre is a talented recruit who completed one pass last year. Everyone else in the room fled.
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I think if Dantonio had returned, Lombardi would get first crack. With him out, I would be surprised if it's him. Theo Day was the highest rated recruit of the three, but I suspect Thorne wins it out for some reason.
This is where no spring ball, followed by a September schedule that opens with a conference game; and includes Miami and BYU, along with Toledo, really hurts. If this was last year, opening against Tulsa and Western Michigan, I could see them use all three in those games. Can't really afford to do that here, and there's no spring to help sort things out.
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I'd probably put Wisconsin above Penn State, but otherwise that list is pretty spot on.
Just to make it clear to everyone: We discussed ranking the best units, not necessarily the best players. For example, Penn State has two pretty good QBs, and perhaps that advantage pushes them above Wisconsin.
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An SEC list would be "interesting" and largely guesswork. Maybe Guarantano would be tops?
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Purdue also got grad transfer Austin Burton from UCLA. Immediately eligible. I believe he'd be a RS Jr, graduated in 3 years, with 2 years eligibility remaining.
AOC is a walk-on, and Piferi wasn't really even looked at as an option to unseat him. Nobody has really seen him play, or heard anything encouraging, so Piferi is a complete unknown at best and shuffled to the end of the depth chart to ride pine at worst.
Alaimo is a RS candidate IMHO, especially with Burton coming in.
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Purdue also got grad transfer Austin Burton from UCLA. Immediately eligible. I believe he'd be a RS Jr, graduated in 3 years, with 2 years eligibility remaining.
AOC is a walk-on, and Piferi wasn't really even looked at as an option to unseat him. Nobody has really seen him play, or heard anything encouraging, so Piferi is a complete unknown at best and shuffled to the end of the depth chart to ride pine at worst.
Alaimo is a RS candidate IMHO, especially with Burton coming in.
Good to know, I'll edit
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Just to make it clear to everyone: We discussed ranking the best units, not necessarily the best players. For example, Penn State has two pretty good QBs, and perhaps that advantage pushes them above Wisconsin.
With QB I'm not sure it matters. If your starter goes down, you are usually screwed, no matter how "good" your backup is.
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With QB I'm not sure it matters. If your starter goes down, you are usually screwed, no matter how "good" your backup is.
It worked out pretty good for Ohio State in 2014. :)
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It worked out pretty good for Ohio State in 2014. :)
Damn you.
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2nd string QB matters
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2nd string QB matters
And 3rd string.
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And 3rd string.
And given the injury problems at Purdue, sometimes even farther...
In 2010 Purdue had Robert Marve (starter) go down due to injury, Caleb TerBush (2nd string) ruled out preseason due to academics, Rob Henry (3rd string) miss a few games due to injury, so we were working with true frosh Sean Robinson (4th string) who eventually finished his career as a linebacker...
This year I guess we were "lucky" that we only went through 3 QBs...
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Yeah, Eason went down in Game 1 and never got to start another game until he transferred. I think UGA would have been better last year with Fields than Fromm.
If your Number 2 is pretty good, you can think about inserting him to games in the third quarter when the score is more like 28-7.
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I think I’d consider taking Fields #1 overall in front of Trevor Lawrence.
Fields’ TD to INT rate is insane. 45 TD and only 3 INT. 15 to 1 ratio. Almost 3x better than Trevor Lawrence’s.
They are both awesome prospects though to be honest. I’ll be shocked if they aren’t #1 and #2 overall.
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6. Michigan: Dylan McCaffrey, Joe Milton, Cade McNamara
Michigan is tough to rank because they don't have a clear starter yet. McCaffery is probably the favorite, though Milton is a real threat. Still, they are all pretty strong recruits, and Michigan's system has gotten quarterback friendly, so whoever starts should be pretty good. But not sure who that will be yet. Also a question as to when a starter would be named and whether the other guy would leave.
I think McCaffrey is the guy. His ceiling is lower than Milton’s but his floor is a lot higher. Milton is a physical specimen but raw. I just don’t trust Harbaugh to refine a QB. McCaffrey was pretty polished coming in, having gone to a big-time prep school and coming from an NFL royalty family.
Milton with Harbaugh = bleh. Milton with someone like Ryan Day or Lincoln Riley- now you might have something. Milton really is a freaking specimen. His arm is out of this world and he’s 6’5” pushing 250 and he’s very mobile.
That’s Milton as a Jr in high school. The arm strength is unreal.
https://youtu.be/rKX3B7lR4yE
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With QB I'm not sure it matters. If your starter goes down, you are usually screwed, no matter how "good" your backup is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLCV_znK73E&t=5s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLCV_znK73E&t=5s)
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Yeah, yeah, yeah... If you recruit like Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, or Dabo Swinney, you can survive the loss of your starting QB.
We're talking about the OTHER 127 FBS teams.
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Didn't MSU register some sorta monster upset with their back up QB that catapulted them into the playoffs?
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Didn't MSU register some sorta monster upset with their back up QB that catapulted them into the playoffs?
Yeah, thanks to a modified game plan that the coaches were so confident in working a second time that they just let Connor Cook see what he could do trying to pass against Bama's defense with a shoulder where he was topping out at about 20 yards downfield.
I'm not saying backup quarterback is meaningless, just when it comes to unit rankings, you are going off the #1 guy. If I said right now you were building a roster, and you could have any set of QBs in the conference, I don't care who Ohio State's backup QBs are, you're taking OSU, because then you easily have the #1 guy. It could be Justin Fields, and three of us, and I'd pick it.
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Yeah, thanks to a modified game plan that the coaches were so confident in working a second time that they just let Connor Cook see what he could do trying to pass against Bama's defense with a shoulder where he was topping out at about 20 yards downfield.
I'm not saying backup quarterback is meaningless, just when it comes to unit rankings, you are going off the #1 guy. If I said right now you were building a roster, and you could have any set of QBs in the conference, I don't care who Ohio State's backup QBs are, you're taking OSU, because then you easily have the #1 guy. It could be Justin Fields, and three of us, and I'd pick it.
Maryland might just pick the three of us
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I've already called Maryland to let them know I wouldn't play for them.
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If you rated teams nationally solely on their QB room, you'd be fairly close to rating them as complete teams.
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11. Iowa: Spencer Petras, Peyton Mansell
Nate Stanley is finally gone, leading to some new Iowa QB play. Your guess is as good as mine here.
Peyton Mansell transferred to Abilene(?). Backups will be RS Freshman Alex Padilla and incoming Freshman Deuce Hogan. It's hard to tell what will come of it. Petras sounds to be decent and will probably have the best collective skill position talent Iowa has seen in a while.
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Deuce Hogan has to be a name a celebrity checks into a hotel under
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Deuce Hogan has to be a name a celebrity checks into a hotel under
Or a male pornstar name.
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Or a nightmare to TP suppliers
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Peyton Mansell transferred to Abilene(?). Backups will be RS Freshman Alex Padilla and incoming Freshman Deuce Hogan. It's hard to tell what will come of it. Petras sounds to be decent and will probably have the best collective skill position talent Iowa has seen in a while.
Good to know
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People talk a lot about Jack Coan and Graham Mertz in Madison.
Don't sleep on Chase Wolf.
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also, don't sleep on the younger McCaffrey in Lincoln
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People talk a lot about Jack Coan and Graham Mertz in Madison.
Don't sleep on Chase Wolf.
I feel weird saying I'm fine sleeping on him?
I mean, I assume Coan is the guy next year unless he just craters without Cephus and JT. And after that, is Wolf wants to be better, that'd be cool. But I'll assume third-year Mertz is more likely to do so. (Not that it's even a top-50 part of it, but him flaming out would be not ideal for recruiting)
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Is it often true that a less heralded QB blossoms in a conference and becomes really good, like what Burrow did last year? (Fromm kind of did the reverse.)
I know Fields exceeded most expectations, even mine, and I thought he would do extremely well.
It does help when you have a lot of tools around you. Funny how "tools" is both a good and a bad thing when applied to people.
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I feel weird saying I'm fine sleeping on him?
I mean, I assume Coan is the guy next year unless he just craters without Cephus and JT. And after that, is Wolf wants to be better, that'd be cool. But I'll assume third-year Mertz is more likely to do so. (Not that it's even a top-50 part of it, but him flaming out would be not ideal for recruiting)
On a scale of 1 to 10 how confident are you in Coan?
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On a scale of 1 to 10 how confident are you in Coan?
How do you mean confident.
Confident he'll improve on last year's performance? 1.5
Confident he'll match last year's performance? 2-2.5
Confident he'll turn in a serviceable to good UW QB year? 7
I mean, last year, Coan posted the third-highest completion rate, fifth best passer rating and third most yards for a season in program history (that las one got a boost from 14 games). Falling back wouldn't surprise me.
But the question is if he's just bad. I'm reasonably confident that won't happen. Now if he regresses some and Mertz or Wolf rise up and take the job, that's another matter. UW has had two QB regressions in its past few starters. Maybe a person could quibble about one of them, but I just kind of assume Coan will be fine, not great, not bad enough to lose the job.
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Just trying to gage how Wiscy fans think of him. It was tough for me to rank him.
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He doesn't make mistakes really, so that's great. Can he win a game alone? He has, in the past.
As for Hornibrook's regression, I think there is much more to that story than we'll ever see in the news.
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How do you mean confident.
Confident he'll improve on last year's performance? 1.5
Confident he'll match last year's performance? 2-2.5
Confident he'll turn in a serviceable to good UW QB year? 7
I mean, last year, Coan posted the third-highest completion rate, fifth best passer rating and third most yards for a season in program history (that las one got a boost from 14 games). Falling back wouldn't surprise me.
But the question is if he's just bad. I'm reasonably confident that won't happen. Now if he regresses some and Mertz or Wolf rise up and take the job, that's another matter. UW has had two QB regressions in its past few starters. Maybe a person could quibble about one of them, but I just kind of assume Coan will be fine, not great, not bad enough to lose the job.
I thought Coan was criminally underrated last year. I didn't see every Wisconsin game, but he looked good in the ones I did see. Even against Ohio State I thought he was pretty good.
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He doesn't make mistakes really, so that's great. Can he win a game alone? He has, in the past.
As for Hornibrook's regression, I think there is much more to that story than we'll ever see in the news.
His "regression" wasn't really even true. He was worse as a junior than he was as a sophomore...on a worse team. His junior year was still better than his freshman year that earned him tons of praise. The issue wasn't regression as much as lack of development. The arm strength was simply never there, and never got there.
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I thought Coan was criminally underrated last year. I didn't see every Wisconsin game, but he looked good in the ones I did see. Even against Ohio State I thought he was pretty good.
Ehhh. They had an efficent but very conservative passing game. UW finished 103rd in yards per completion against FBS competition, a low number even for them. He loses likely the best tailback the program has seen and his top target.
I don't think he's bad, but I could see some issues if he has to carry the offense, especially with how high they'll be rated.
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His "regression" wasn't really even true. He was worse as a junior than he was as a sophomore...on a worse team. His junior year was still better than his freshman year that earned him tons of praise. The issue wasn't regression as much as lack of development. The arm strength was simply never there, and never got there.
So, this is kind of half true. His freshman year stuff was praised because of the QB dynamic that with young QBs you look at what they can do, and with older ones, you look at what they can't do.
Now in that sophomore year, he might've been doing some things that in retrospect wasn't super sustainable (an MGoBlog film person joked he dropped in a ball so perfectly into super tight coverage it had to be an accident). But he did play worse that next year. Pick rate went up, yards per attempt and completion fell. I thought the receivers played a role, pass protection as well, but the frayed edges of his game got more frayed, and that was with a notably better running game backing him.
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I see Danny Davis having a big year, and I see Jalen Berger making a JT-like ascent to the starting tailback role as a true freshman, with RSF Julius Davis as his primary backup. Not sold on Watson and Groshek is just gonna be himself (which is good).
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also, don't sleep on the younger McCaffrey in Lincoln
would be something cool to see if both McCaffrey brothers had a breakout year of sorts.
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I'd like to see it. I think Martinez is pretty good, so if McCafferey beats him out, this means good things for Frost's offense
would make for a good story on 10/30/2021
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I'd like to see it. I think Martinez is pretty good, so if McCafferey beats him out, this means good things for Frost's offense
would make for a good story on 10/30/2021
I would love to see Nebraska rise to prominence again.
Also, they should be playing Penn State during rivalry week.
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agreed, on both counts
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Since tOSU put you both in your place - seems reasonable :D
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yuck it up while you can
your time is coming!
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Taking a look at these with all the COVID and other craziness. Looks like the biggest change here is McCaffery leaving Michigan, as well as Noah Vedral transferring to Rutgers and Tauli Tagovailoa transferring to Maryland and I think being eligble.
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Don't forget about Coan going down to injury, indefinitely. Mertz is the starter now.
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Martinez is starting ahead of McCafferey
apparently a slim margin
Former Husker Noah Vedral is the co-No. 1 at quarterback on Rutgers’ depth chart.
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Seems like Rocky will get first crack at it. We didn't really get much positive or negative out of camp from him. Did get a lot of positive from Payton Thorne, so I guess it's something that Rocky held him off.
If Theo Day is #3, I'm guessing he transfers.
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Purdue has selected a starting QB, finally...
Of course, they didn't name a starting QB. Apparently they've selected internally and nobody will know who it is until Saturday.
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Harbaugh is coaching Purdue now?
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Purdue has selected a starting QB, finally...
Of course, they didn't name a starting QB. Apparently they've selected internally and nobody will know who it is until Saturday.
Mizzou did that.
He was benched before the first game was over. I hate when coaches do that.