CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: MaximumSam on November 12, 2017, 07:33:02 AM
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1. Wisconsin (Beat Iowa 38-14, next week Michigan) An utter destruction of the Hawkeyes only marred by two pick sixes, Wisconsin put together their best performance of the season. Now they get their toughest test of the season in a Michigan defense that may force them to pass. Regardless, they answered the bell again.
2. Penn State (Beat Rutgers 35-6, next week Nebraska) Putting them here mostly because they are consistently good every week, even if their line play limits them. They play enough defense to keep them in games and make enough plays to win games.
3. Ohio State (Beat MSU 48-3, next week Illinois) As weird a team as I can remember. They were straight out bad against Oklahoma and worse against Iowa. They casually pantsed Michigan State like they were playing Michigan Technical College. I don't know what to expect from them on a week to week basis, but they still can win the B1G.
4. Michigan State (Lost to OSU 48-3, next week Maryland) Per Dantonio: “We didn’t separate with our receivers. We didn’t throw the ball accurately. We couldn’t protect the quarterback. We couldn’t run the football. Defensively, we didn’t tackle well. We didn’t pressure their quarterback enough and couldn’t stop the run." They'll be ready to play next week though.
5. Michigan (Beat Maryland 35-10, next week @Wisconsin) They've readjusted after the Penn State debacle and now are a competent running team with a not terrible quarterback. Will they look that way on the road against a good defense? I'm not sure, but look forward to watching.
6. Iowa (Lost to Wisconsin 38-14, next week Purdue) The new TeamChaos was completely inept against Wisconsin. They will probably now go back to being Iowa and win a 17-10 game against Purdue next week.
7. Northwestern (Beat Purdue 23-13, next week Minnesota) The Spunky Cats win again. Could put them higher, though it' tough to really sort any of these top 7 teams any more.
8. Purdue (Lost to Purdue 23-13, next week @Iowa) Now in desperation mode to catch a bowl game
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9. Minnesota (Beat Nebraska 54-21, next week Northwestern) Suddenly competent on offense? Needs a win Saturday to get a bowl game.
10. Rutgers (Lost to PSU 35-6, next week @Indiana) Man, if they had beaten Eastern Michigan, they would be playing Indiana for a bowl game.
11. Maryland (Lost to Michigan 35-10, next week @MSU) Weren't blown off the field, so they have that going for them.
12. Indiana (Beat Illinois 24-14, next week Rutgers) Another team playing for a bowl game. Need to beat Rutgers and Purdue.
13. Nebraska (Lost to Minnesota 54-21, next week @PSU) Look like they've given up
14. Illinois (Lost to Indiana 24-14, next week at OSU) Blech
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http://btn.com/2017/11/12/big-ten-power-rankings-ohio-state-moves-to-no-2-in-post-week-11-list/
I tend to agree with these most weeks. Straightforward with no weird biases.
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Iowa
7. Michigan
8. Rutgers
9. Purdue
10. Indiana
11. Maryland
12. Minnesota
13. Nebraska
14. Illinois
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8. Purdue (Lost to Purdue 23-13, next week @Iowa) Now in desperation mode to catch a bowl game
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Purdue looks a bit high considered they lost Saturday to Purdue.
1. Wisconsin - still don't know how good they are considering they played Iowa in a week Iowa used up their whole offense last Sat. However they've never been tested yet.
2. PSU - even though they are ranked 13ish? now on a day when things are clicking I feel like they could steamroll any team in the country. I also feel that any team in the top 30 could beat them.
3. OSU - Urbz was angry. OU and Auburn have to lose for them to get into the playoffs IMO (unless they utterly destroy UM and Sconnie).
4. Sparty - bad day at the office
5. Michigan - Don't think they'll win but will probably give OSU all they can handle.
6. Iowa - bad day at the office
7. NW - will get a decent bowl
8 Minnesota - usually plays teams tough.
9. Maryland - deserves a bowl game
10. Indiana
11. Rutgers
12 Purdue
13. Nebraska
14. Illinois
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1 Badgers
2 Buckeyes
3 Nittany Lions
4 Spartans
5 Hawkeyes
6 Wildcats
7 Wolverines
8 Rutgers
9 Inidana
10 Nebraska
11 Maryland
12 Minnesota
13 Purdue
14 Illinois
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1. Wisc
2-0 against top 7. Beat NW. Beat Iowa
2. OSU
2-1. Beat PSU, MSU. Lost to Iowa
3. MSU
3-2. Beat Mich, Iowa, PSU. Lost to NW, OSU
4. PSU
3-2. Beat Iowa, Mich, NW. Lost to OSU, MSU
5. NW
2-2. Beat Iowa, MSU. Lost to PSU, Wisc
6. Iowa
1-4 beat OSU. Lost to PSU, MSU, NW, Wisc
7. Mich
0-2. Lost to PSU, MSU
8. Neb
3-1 vs. Bottom 7. Beat Rut
9. Rut
3-1. Lost to Neb
10. MD
2-1. Lost to Rut
Edit
11. Indy
1-1
Edit
12. Pur
2-2. Beat Minn
13. Minn
2-2. Lost to Pur
14. ILL
0-everybody
The nebraska loss to Minn looks as fluky as the OSU loss to Iowa.
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1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Michigan
7. Iowa
8. Minnesota
9. Purdue
10. Maryland
11. Indiana
12. Rutgers
13. Nebraska
14. Illinois
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I like medina's take that there is a clear top 7 and bottom 7, and they should almost be treated and ranked as 2 different entities, with crossover games ignored, since there haven't been any crossover upsets yet anyway. That really, outside of your record listed below, your overall record is nothing more than a reflection of getting to/having to play more or less crossover games than other teams
I can also see why MSU is ranked #4 in SOS and #13 in SOR, which I believe is best in the nation among 3 loss teams
1. WISCONSIN (1) - 2-0 (W - NW, IA)
2. OHIO STATE (2) - 2-1 (W - PSU, MSU; L - IA)
3. MICHIGAN STATE (3) - 3-2 (W - IA, UM, PSU; L - NW, OSU)
4. PENN STATE (4) - 3-2 (W - IA, NW, UM; L - OSU, MSU)
5. NORTHWESTERN (6) - 2-2 (W - IA, MSU; L - UW, PSU)
6. IOWA (5) - 1-4 (W - OSU; L - PSU, MSU, NW, UW)
7. MICHIGAN (7) - 0-2 (L - MSU, PSU)
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8. NEBRASKA (11) - 3-1 (W - RU, IL, PU; L - MN)
9. RUTGERS (9) - 3-1 (W - IL, PU, MD; L - NEB)
10. MARYLAND (10) - 2-1 (W - MN, IN; L - RU)
11. PURDUE (8) - 2-2 (W - MN, IL; L - RU, NEB)
12. MINNESOTA (13) - 2-2 (W - IL, NEB; L - MD, PU)
13. INDIANA (12) - 1-1 (L - MD; W - IL)
14. ILLINOIS (14) - 0-5 (L - NEB, RU, MN, PU, IU)
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11. Pur
13. Minn
You do not have a #12 and you did not rank Indiana so I am assuming that you intended to vote Indiana as #12.
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I'm glad to see that my top-7/bottom-7 distinction is catching on (littlepig referenced top-7 records and ELA referenced my take specifically).
I do think, however, that HFA also needs to be taken into account. There have been 13 games between top-7 teams and the home team has won all but three:
- Penn State over Iowa by two in Iowa City
- Penn State over Northwestern by 24 in Evanston
- Michigan State over Michigan by four in Ann Arbor
I also think that scoring margin is relevant to a "Power Ranking" and most of the games between top-7 teams have been reasonably close. All of them were decided by nine or less points except:
- Wisconsin over Iowa by 24
- Ohio State over Michigan State by 45
- Penn State over Michigan by 29
- Penn State over Northwestern by 24
- Iowa over Ohio State by 31
Looking at those eight abnormal events and giving each team "+1" for a good one (road win or blowout win) and "-1" for a bad one (home loss or blowout loss) you get this:
- +4 Penn State: Two road wins, two blowout wins.
- +1 Wisconsin: One blowout win.
- 0 Michigan State: One road win, one blowout loss.
- 0 Ohio State: One blowout win, one blowout loss.
- -1 Iowa: One blowout win, one blowout loss, one home loss.
- -2 Northwestern: One blowout loss, one home loss.
- -2 Michigan: One blowout loss, one home loss.
- Penn State: Two close losses on the road do not completely erase two road wins including a blowout and a home blowout over Michigan.
- Wisconsin: The Badger's toughest conference road game this year will likely end up being at Indiana. If this season were a test I think the Badger's grade would be "incomplete". With zero challenging road games there simply is not enough information to adequately assess this team.
- Ohio State: The Buckeyes are probably the hardest of the top-7 to rank. Looking at the MSU game and the second half of the PSU game the Buckeyes are #1 and it isn't even remotely close. OTOH, looking at the Iowa game and the first half of the PSU game the Buckeyes are #7. If you average it all out, #3 sounds right.
- Michigan State: The Spartans ran into a hornet's nest in Columbus but I don't think that reflects on them so much as just their misfortune to be the next team on the schedule after what happened to the Buckeyes in Iowa City.
- Iowa: The Hawkeyes are a game and a half worse than the Wildcats against the top-7 (1-4 vs 2-2) and lost to Northwestern H2H but I am going to rank them ahead of Northwestern anyway because of HFA and MOV. Three of the Hawkeyes four losses were on the road and three of their losses were VERY close (2 points, 7 points, OT).
- Northwestern: The Wildcats are 2-2 against the top-7 but it is two OT wins at home as against a blowout loss at home and a nine point road loss.
- Michigan: I feel like Michigan should be higher but but they are going to have to beat somebody to get there.
- Nebraska: In spite of the catastrophe in Minneapolis, the Cornhuskers still appear to be the best of the bottom-7. They have convincing wins (by 22 at Illinois, by 10 over Rutgers) and road wins (at Purdue) that none of the other bottom-7 can match.
- Rutgers: I think Ash should get serious consideration for CotY.
- Maryland: The road win and home loss offset.
- Indiana: The Hoosiers are only 1-1 but both were on the road.
- Purdue: The Boilermakers are 2-2 with three home and only one road games.
- Minnesota: Like Purdue, the Gophers have played three at home and only one on the road.
- Illinois: It really doesn't matter where Illinois plays.
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1) Wisconsin - Lookin' good, Badgers. Looking real good.
2) Ohio State - could anyone tell if the Buckeyes were just a little pissed off?
3) Penn State - not quite playoff-caliber, but still in prime position for an NY6 bowl
4) Michigan State - did someone get the number of the truck that ran over Sparty?
5) Northwestern - Salty ole Northwestern.
6) Iowa - they're a better team than what we saw in Madison, they just ran into a jacked-up buzzsaw
7) Michigan - some signs of offensive life at least
8) Maryland - most schizophrenic team in the league
9) Minnesota - where did THAT come from?
10) Nebraska - hard not to like Riley, but he's just not passing muster in Lincoln. Maybe he's homesick for Corvallis.
11) Indiana - I guess
12) Purdue - Improved, but still a ways to go
13) Rutgers - Like Purdue, they have some fight, but still not very good
14) Illinois - Yuck
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- Wisconsin
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Michigan State
- Northwestern
- Iowa
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
- Purdue
- Rutgers
- Maryland
- Indiana
- Illinois
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I'm glad to see that my top-7/bottom-7 distinction is catching on (littlepig referenced top-7 records and ELA referenced my take specifically).
I do think, however, that HFA also needs to be taken into account. There have been 13 games between top-7 teams and the home team has won all but three:
- Penn State over Iowa by two in Iowa City
- Penn State over Northwestern by 24 in Evanston
- Michigan State over Michigan by four in Ann Arbor
I also think that scoring margin is relevant to a "Power Ranking" and most of the games between top-7 teams have been reasonably close. All of them were decided by nine or less points except:
- Wisconsin over Iowa by 24
- Ohio State over Michigan State by 45
- Penn State over Michigan by 29
- Penn State over Northwestern by 24
- Iowa over Ohio State by 31
Looking at those eight abnormal events and giving each team "+1" for a good one (road win or blowout win) and "-1" for a bad one (home loss or blowout loss) you get this:
- +4 Penn State: Two road wins, two blowout wins.
- +1 Wisconsin: One blowout win.
- 0 Michigan State: One road win, one blowout loss.
- 0 Ohio State: One blowout win, one blowout loss.
- -1 Iowa: One blowout win, one blowout loss, one home loss.
- -2 Northwestern: One blowout loss, one home loss.
- -2 Michigan: One blowout loss, one home loss.
- Penn State: Two close losses on the road do not completely erase two road wins including a blowout and a home blowout over Michigan.
- Wisconsin: The Badger's toughest conference road game this year will likely end up being at Indiana. If this season were a test I think the Badger's grade would be "incomplete". With zero challenging road games there simply is not enough information to adequately assess this team.
- Ohio State: The Buckeyes are probably the hardest of the top-7 to rank. Looking at the MSU game and the second half of the PSU game the Buckeyes are #1 and it isn't even remotely close. OTOH, looking at the Iowa game and the first half of the PSU game the Buckeyes are #7. If you average it all out, #3 sounds right.
- Michigan State: The Spartans ran into a hornet's nest in Columbus but I don't think that reflects on them so much as just their misfortune to be the next team on the schedule after what happened to the Buckeyes in Iowa City.
- Iowa: The Hawkeyes are a game and a half worse than the Wildcats against the top-7 (1-4 vs 2-2) and lost to Northwestern H2H but I am going to rank them ahead of Northwestern anyway because of HFA and MOV. Three of the Hawkeyes four losses were on the road and three of their losses were VERY close (2 points, 7 points, OT).
- Northwestern: The Wildcats are 2-2 against the top-7 but it is two OT wins at home as against a blowout loss at home and a nine point road loss.
- Michigan: I feel like Michigan should be higher but but they are going to have to beat somebody to get there.
- Nebraska: In spite of the catastrophe in Minneapolis, the Cornhuskers still appear to be the best of the bottom-7. They have convincing wins (by 22 at Illinois, by 10 over Rutgers) and road wins (at Purdue) that none of the other bottom-7 can match.
- Rutgers: I think Ash should get serious consideration for CotY.
- Maryland: The road win and home loss offset.
- Indiana: The Hoosiers are only 1-1 but both were on the road.
- Purdue: The Boilermakers are 2-2 with three home and only one road games.
- Minnesota: Like Purdue, the Gophers have played three at home and only one on the road.
- Illinois: It really doesn't matter where Illinois plays.
I think you just took a good take, and improved upon it. I was trying to make a reason to move Penn State up, and you gave it to me there.
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Lol, just when the rest of us catch up to Medina in his analysis, he goes ahead and takes it to yet another level.
Well done, Medina, I learn so much from your posts.
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You do not have a #12 and you did not rank Indiana so I am assuming that you intended to vote Indiana as #12.
Fixed it. I put indy at #11 and Pur at #12. I remember at the time being very confused where to put Indy, and kept moving them up and down.
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S&P+
1. OSU (1)
2. Wisconsin (3)
3. Penn State (8)
4. Michigan (16)
5. Michigan State (39)
6. Purdue (43)
7. Iowa (55)
8. Northwestern (62)
9. Indiana (65)
10. Minnesota (70)
11. Nebraska (90)
12. Rutgers (96)
13. Maryland (106)
14. Illinois (112)
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Lol, just when the rest of us catch up to Medina in his analysis, he goes ahead and takes it to yet another level.
Well done, Medina, I learn so much from your posts.
LoL, thanks.
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10 votes, here are the results:
| Team/Poster | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range | LW AVG | LW Rank | Chg Avg | Chg Rank |
| UW | 1.20 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.45 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 |
| tOSU | 2.30 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4.36 | 4 | 2.06 | 2 |
| PSU | 2.70 | 3 | 0.95 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3.09 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 |
| MSU | 4.00 | 4 | 0.67 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2.36 | 2 | (1.64) | -2 |
| NU | 5.40 | 5 | 1.07 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 6.09 | 7 | 0.69 | 2 |
| Iowa | 5.90 | 6 | 0.57 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 4.64 | 5 | (1.26) | -1 |
| M | 6.50 | 7 | 0.85 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 6.00 | 6 | (0.50) | -1 |
| RU | 10.00 | 8 | 1.70 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 10.36 | 10 | 0.36 | 2 |
| MD | 10.20 | 9 | 1.14 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 11.64 | 12 | 1.44 | 3 |
| MN | 10.40 | 10 | 2.17 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 12.09 | 13 | 1.69 | 3 |
| UNL | 10.50 | 11 | 2.27 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 8.82 | 8 | (1.68) | -3 |
| PU | 10.80 | 12 | 1.69 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 9.27 | 9 | (1.53) | -3 |
| IU | 11.10 | 13 | 1.29 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 10.82 | 11 | (0.28) | -2 |
| ILL | 14.00 | 14 | - | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 14 | - | 0 |
Take a look not just at the rankings but at the averages. It is interesting (at least to me) that #8 through #13 are essentially tied. #8 Rutgers is closer to #13 Indiana than they are to #7 Michigan. #13 Indiana is closer to #8 Rutgers than they are to #14 Illinois.
Here is the Schedule/Performance Chart:
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
| . | Team | UW | tOSU | PSU | MSU | NU | Iowa | M | RU | MD | MN | UNL | PU | IU | ILL | Team | . |
| 1 | UW | n/a | miss | miss | miss | L by 9, A | L by 24, A | 11/18, A | miss | L by 25, A | 11/25, H | L by 21, H | L by 8, A | L by 28, H | L by 14, H | UW | 1 |
| 2 | tOSU | miss | n/a | L by 1, A | L by 45, A | miss | W by 31, H | 11/25, H | L by 56, H | L by 48, A | miss | L by 42, H | miss | L by 28, H | 11/18, A | tOSU | 2 |
| 3 | PSU | miss | W by 1, H | n/a | W by 3, H | L by 24, H | L by 2, H | L by 29, A | L by 29, A | 11/25, H | miss | 11/18, A | miss | L by 31, A | miss | PSU | 3 |
| 4 | MSU | miss | W by 45, H | L by 3, A | n/a | W in OT, H | L by 7, A | L by 4, H | 11/25, H | 11/18, A | L by 3, H | miss | miss | L by 8, A | miss | MSU | 4 |
| 5 | NU | W by 9, H | miss | W by 24, A | L in OT, A | n/a | L in OT, A | miss | miss | L by 16, H | 11/18, A | L in OT, H | L by 10, A | miss | 11/25, H | NU | 5 |
| 6 | Iowa | W by 24, H | L by 31, A | W by 2, A | W by 7, H | W in OT, H | n/a | miss | miss | miss | L by 7, A | 11/24, H | 11/18, A | miss | L by 29, A | Iowa | 6 |
| 7 | M | 11/18, H | 11/25, A | W by 29, H | W by 4, A | miss | miss | n/a | L by 21, A | L by 25, H | L by 23, A | miss | L by 18, H | L in OT, H | miss | M | 7 |
| 8 | RU | miss | W by 56, A | W by 29, H | 11/25, A | miss | miss | W by 21, H | n/a | L by 7, H | miss | W by 10, H | L by 2, A | 11/18, H | L by 11, H | RU | 8 |
| 9 | MD | W by 25, H | W by 48, H | 11/25, A | 11/18, H | W by 16, A | miss | W by 25, A | W by 7, H | n/a | L by 7, H | miss | miss | L by 3, A | miss | MD | 9 |
| 10 | MN | 11/25, A | miss | miss | W by 3, A | 11/18, H | W by 7, H | W by 23, H | miss | W by 7, A | n/a | L by 33, A | W by 14, H | miss | L by 7, A | MN | 10 |
| 11 | UNL | W by 21, A | W by 42, A | 11/18, H | miss | W in OT, A | 11/24, A | miss | L by 10, A | miss | W by 33, H | n/a | L by 1, H | miss | L by 22, H | UNL | 11 |
| 12 | PU | W by 8, H | miss | miss | miss | W by 10, H | 11/18, H | W by 18, A | W by 2, H | miss | L by 14, A | W by 1, A | n/a | 11/25, A | L by 19, A | PU | 12 |
| 13 | IU | W by 28, A | W by 28, A | W by 31, H | W by 8, H | miss | miss | W in OT, A | 11/18, A | W by 3, H | miss | miss | 11/25, H | n/a | L by 10, H | IU | 13 |
| 14 | ILL | W by 14, A | 11/18, H | miss | miss | 11/25, A | W by 29, H | miss | W by 11, A | miss | W by 7, H | W by 22, A | W by 19, H | W by 10, A | n/a | ILL | 14 |
| . | Team | UW | tOSU | PSU | MSU | NU | Iowa | M | RU | MD | MN | UNL | PU | IU | ILL | Team | . |
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
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Week 11 composite computer rankings (102 computers - last week in parentheses)
1. Alabama (2)
2. Clemson (4)
3. WISCONSIN (5)
4. Miami (7)
5. Georgia (1)
6. Notre Dame (3)
7. OHIO STATE (11)
8. PENN STATE (6)
9. Oklahoma (8)
10. Auburn (14)
11. Central Florida (9)
12. USC (13)
13. Oklahoma State (16)
14. TCU (10)
15. Washington (12)
16. MICHIGAN (19)
17. Washington State (21)
18. Mississippi State (20)
19. NC State (24)
20. MICHIGAN STATE (15)
21. Virginia Tech (17)
22. Stanford (25)
23. IOWA (18)
24. Memphis (22)
25. LSU (-)
27. Northwestern (27)
61. Purdue (55)
63. Minnesota (71)
67. Indiana (74)
69. Maryland (66)
73. Nebraska (61)
82. Rutgers (81)
110. Illinois (105)
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I those sort of echo what we've been saying. A 35 spot gap between #7 and #8? Then you have 5 teams in 12 spots? It's one thing to do that higher in the rankings, where it's essentially only P5 teams, but to do that down there, interspersed with all teams. That just a giant "who knows" from #8 to #13.
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1) Wisconsin - Team of playoff destiny.
2) PSU - both loses were on the road and close
3) OSU - Wish the buzz saw team showed up each week.
4) MSU - I'm as shocked as the rest of you on last weeks score
5) Meat Chicken
6) Northwestern
7) Iowa
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8 ) Nebraska
9) Minnesota
10) Indiana
11) Rutgers - these losers beat all of these losers below them.
12) Purdue
13) Maryland
14) Illinois
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The votes from 8-13 are so close that Ty's vote rearranged most of them.
Pvs rank, Team, new rank (with Ty's vote)
- 8, Rutgers, 8
- 9, Maryland, 11
- 10, Minnesota, 9/10
- 11, Nebraska, 9/10
- 12, Purdue, 12
- 13, Indiana, 13
They are still all basically tied a Rutgers average vote is now 10.09 and Indiana's is now 11.00 so they are all close in that window.
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It just occured to me that, except fir NW, the top 7 teams in the power rankings match the top 7 teams in attendance
And except for Neb, the bottom 7 teams in power rankings match the bottom 7 teams in attendence.
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It just occured to me that, except fir NW, the top 7 teams in the power rankings match the top 7 teams in attendance
And except for Neb, the bottom 7 teams in power rankings match the bottom 7 teams in attendence.
So basically, people like watching good teams...except in Chicago where they have other options; and people don't like watching bad teams...except in Nebraska where they have no other options?
:hee20hee20hee:
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So basically, people like watching good teams...except in Chicago where they have other options; and people don't like watching bad teams...except in Nebraska where they have no other options?
:hee20hee20hee:
So basically, people like watching good teams...except in Chicago where they have other options; and people don't like watching bad teams...except in Nebraska where they have no other options?
:hee20hee20hee:
Yeah. Lots of people show up at Soldier Field for some reason. Probably the same people who like train wrecks or something.