CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: MaximumSam on November 11, 2017, 07:35:17 AM
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It's cold. The dogs' water was frozen this morning. They just got neutered so they have cones on. Entertainment is watching them try to eat and drink with those things on.
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Today would be a great day for some chili. But what type of beans to use?
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A pretty stocked day of football today. A noon kick for OSU-MSU. 3:30 gets us Iowa-Wiscy, and you can flip over to Georgia-Auburn. 7 gets us Bammer-Miss St. and 8 brings us ND-Miami and Sooners-TCU.
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Mid 20s this am, and we still have leaves that won't fall. Kids playing tennis w their friends this morning at new facility on this side of town.
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Thank you Veterans!!
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No real cooking going on today for me.
I'm participating in the local chamber business expo starting at 10AM, for a couple of hours. My firm is doing a STEM demo for kids there, to demonstrate flooding and flood control using models we built. The kids should like it. Last year we demonstrated how to make a homemade water filtration system and that went over big.
Tonight we are celebrating the boys' birthdays at a Japanese place where they cook in front of you. It's about a 15 year running tradition so that's that.
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do they also shoot streams of Sake at you?
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brewed chili two weeks ago, put a small can of kidney beans in it
turned it into chili soup
beef roast in the crock pot this morning - daughter set it up last night - lots of garlic, white, yellow and red onions, mushrooms and carrots
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warmer here this morning, had been in the teens overnight most of the week
37 already this morning
Tito's and zing zang on the deck cooling for bloodys soon
gotta make a run to the butcher for porterhouse T-bones this morning and some oysters for stew
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Lots of beef going down in the Fearless household this weekend!
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Thank you Veterans!!
This^^^^^^^^^
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gotta buddy stopping by Sunday night for dinner, he usually brings the beef, but this time he's in charge of the Bombay Sapphire gin
I'm feeling porterhouse!
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and I have not forgotten the veterans
deeply respect ALL of them
:PDT_Armataz_01_37:
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OSU has two starting LBs out. Booker and Baker
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Was wearing shorts on Sunday. Got up to jog this morning, saw the wind chill was 7 degrees, went for the treadmill instead, and now have a fire going.
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This would be much better at the old OB.
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I notice some important games are to be played today in CFB (which is relatively unimportant compared with other things in life). I might make some chili myself.
ESPN Gameday is on in the background here. I almost never "listen" to them and all I'm hearing is a lot of noise about obvious stuff. "We" here have better discussions by far IMHO.
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OSU has two starting LBs out. Booker and Baker
Kind of mysterious. They were just awful last week but not ideal to have them be out right before game time.
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Was wearing shorts on Sunday. Got up to jog this morning, saw the wind chill was 7 degrees, went for the treadmill instead, and now have a fire going.
Well if ya got a fire going it almost demands a Hot Toddy or at least a beer
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I am gonna get some chili going as soon as I can get motivated to rehydrate some chilies.
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I have yet to use the fireplace in our new house. I did hang a tv over the fireplace, but now I'm wondering if the whole thing will fall apart if I try to use it.
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I have yet to use the fireplace in our new house. I did hang a tv over the fireplace, but now I'm wondering if the whole thing will fall apart if I try to use it.
We decided not to do that solely because my wife likes to lay in front of the fire when we watch TV.
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I notice some important games are to be played today in CFB (which is relatively unimportant compared with other things in life). I might make some chili myself.
ESPN Gameday is on in the background here. I almost never "listen" to them and all I'm hearing is a lot of noise about obvious stuff. "We" here have better discussions by far IMHO.
Cfb51 podcast?
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It snowed last night here in the Twin Cities, but the sun is out and it's gonna be a great day. Considering that the forecast called for a 5th bad weather tailgate as late as Wednesday, this is an improvement.
Pictures of us and the Broken Chair are on my FB page.
MnDOT does a bridge in a bag as part of our STEM outreach. It's pretty neat.
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Kind of mysterious. They were just awful last week but not ideal to have them be out right before game time.
Pure speculation on my part, but I don't think this is injuries.
Related to their performance last week and likely attitude this week.
That MSU tight end could be lined up for a big day.
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Sparty with the ball. Should see quickly if the Bucks plan to play defense
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Malik Harrison out of position to let up a big run, but then gets a big sack
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Second sack, this time to actually force a punt. Don't think Sparty should abandon the run game.
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Man oh man
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Ohio St gashes MSU with a guy from their state, for a change.
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Sparty giving up 87 yards a game on the ground. OSU with 86 yards rushing on that drive.
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Rutgers took an early lead against PSU.
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OSU defense looks much better when they cover the first read of the quarterback
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IA ST up 14-0 on OK ST,Minny/UNL knotted up at 7
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Nice change - where the screen was covered, Barrett just runs up field
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Rutgers extends their lead over PSU.
The Gophers are beating the Huskers.
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Weber looks like he did some cocaine before the game
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Tonight we are celebrating the boys' birthdays at a Japanese place where they cook in front of you. It's about a 15 year running tradition so that's that.
Is it by chance Rokbonki's in Arlington Heights? That's one of my sister's all time favorite restaurants. I've eaten there a handful of times as well.
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So far, so good.
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It's hard to believe this team is the same team that played last week
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Man, the Gophers are really taking it to the Huskers now. 21-7
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I find Tvs over a fireplace a mistake solely because of the high viewing angle.
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MSU just had their first 1st down since their opening drive.
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I find Tvs over a fireplace a mistake solely because of the high viewing angle.
I don't mind the angle - it's tilted down so not much strain there. Also, the way the room is set up not really other options for putting it somewhere.
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Gophers running wild.
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Is that Weber or or did Zeke sneak back to OSU?
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Is that Weber or or did Zeke sneak back to OSU?
And folks act like Weber doesn't have speed.
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Lee is going to need to throw like Joe Ganz today.
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Is that Weber or or did Zeke sneak back to OSU?
It's amazing what the Offense looks like when they remember that they have running backs.
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So much in common w Billy Cs final yr in Lincoln.
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Definitely a penalty but it didn't look like he hit him in the head
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Unreal. Lead with an arm to the chest and they call that shit?
That rule just has to go.
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Ohio St is so hard to figure out.
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Ohio St is so hard to figure out.
You're telling me
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Iowa St and Ok St involved in a good game. ISU just tied it back up at 21. Almost halftime.
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Gt w zero completions and the lead at half.
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Will the real OSU please stand up.
Shit, MSU too.
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Tanner Lee still in locker room.. ?
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N has no chance w/o Lee. With him, merely some chance.
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Tanner Lee is "ill". Not really covering for him there.
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Hat tip for the wild speculation that Tanner Lee called out the Defense and was knocked out cold.
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Hat tip for the wild speculation that Tanner Lee called out the Defense and was knocked out cold.
If he did that.. he was correct. But, you don't do that.
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Will the real OSU please stand up.
Shit, MSU too.
To be fair, it's not the first time someone has forgotten their dignity in Iowa City.
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Lots of clunker games in the B1G today, so far. IU/UI is close, but I'm not sure anyone is looking.
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Iowa St goes back up 28-24. Cyclones' starting QB is out for the game though.
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Wabash v Depauw delivering in the Monon Bell game. The 124th edition.
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So, Diaco gonna be named the interim HC for UNL tomorrow, or what?
Can't see Riley making it through this one.
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Wabash v Depauw delivering in the Monon Bell game. The 124th edition.
A little North Coast Conference action?
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Diaco not necessarily covered in glory either today, or lately. He....talks too much. So much hot air from him over past tackling techniques this week. Really a clown show in Lincoln.
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I can't recall watching as much ACC football as I have this season. they've had some pretty good games this season.
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Diaco not necessarily covered in glory either today, or lately. He....talks too much. So much hot air from him over past tackling techniques this week. Really a clown show in Lincoln.
So maybe he gets shown the door too?
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Who knows? I suppose if Riley is let go, somebody has to take the reins.
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Acc delivering early here
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Iowa St now up 42-34 on Ok St with 8:38 to play. A Cyclones victory here puts them in really good shape to make the Big 12 CCG.
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Army beat Dook
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GT beats VT
Taquon marshall: 2/8 140 yards. 2TDs 1INT (which was a pick 6).
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This ______ State U Big 12 defense optional crap sucks.
That ain't football.
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Okst skill players are elite.
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I had a funny feeling that was gonna happen. Just run the damn ball.
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What happened badge?
They are still on ISU/OkSU here
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ESPN news. It beats having to find fox business channel last week at the USC bar to find wazzu v Stan.
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I'm a cord cutter, don't get that
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Most penalized teams? Not calling anything today. (oh, wait.....)
Want to score 80+ vs Maryland? Run the ball twice, and throw to the TE on 3rd down. We can't stop the run, and we don't cover TE's. Easy.
On another note, Harbaugh being a dick as usual. Poggi only gets a carry because it's against Maryland, where his father was a bitch HC at HS.
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Kinda ready to see Jack Coan behind center. I'm sure he can throw picks too.
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I'm sorry, pocket passing statues are a liability in football.
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I'm sorry, pocket passing statues are a liability in football.
No doubt. Especially against the better defenses.
So far this game is living up to my expectations. Lots and lots of defense.
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I'm sorry, pocket passing statues are a liability in football.
Really all depends on the QB. For the most part, in college they are a liability because typically in college 99% of the QBs just aren't advanced enough to dissect things at the line of scrimmage and change up plays or protections or WR's routes on the fly. You'd think it'd be easier seeing as how college defenses are far less complex than NFL defenses....but the number of college QBs who can do this is basically zero.
Best style of offense to play in college in my opinion is the spread with tempo with very simple play calling system and a mobile QB.
Give me the pocket passer who is a coach in the field. Problem is those are a dying breed in college football.
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Auburn up 16-7
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Peters seems to have a better feel for the game than Speight. He still looks young and skinny like he needs like 10-15 lbs on that frame. Maybe not quite physically there just yet, but I hope the job is his going forward. I really do not want to see Wilton Speight again unless absolutely necessary. Think you've got to roll with Peters next two games and the bowl game and see what you've got, even if Speight can come back.
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4 - straight 3 & outs for IA.Good Game
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The Badger defense is looking good today. Looking really good.
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Holding receivers, helmet to helmet on the QB, holding our DE's....let Michigan play refs.
Stick to your guns.
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Bert took it again on his 3 chins
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Bert took it again on his 3 chins
I don't think he survives this season.
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Long stopped running on that INT return for some inexplicable reason. Second time he's done that on both of his INT returns this season. Wonder if he's still dealing with that groin injury.
Something is up with Nordin. That kid was blasting 50 yarders like it was nothing. Lately he's been missing extra points and easy chip shot field goals like its his fuggin job. Didn't like Harbaugh reaming him a new ahole on the sideline in front of his teammates. I think that's probably the worst thing you can do to a Frosh kicker. Taking a chance his confidence goes right into the tank and once that happens a kicker is basically worthless.
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Bert took it again on his 3 chins
Couldn't happen to a bigger douche. I don't know how in the hell you leave Wisconsin for that job. I'm only leaving Wisconsin for an SEC job if it's Bama, Florida, Georgia, or LSU. He was insane for leaving.
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Iowa with 20 yards of offense at halftime after putting up nearly 500 against the Buckeyes
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In other words Iowa offense regressing to the mean (though 20 yes isn't really their mean).
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Though Josh Jackson has another pick six. Iowa has 14 yards of offense and 14 points.
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23-7 Auburn over Georgia after Georgia muffs a punt
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UGA poops the bed anytime they're #1.
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That last catch DJ Moore had with the defender holding him around the waist the entire time just proves my point even further.
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WVU is going to find a way to lose to KState again. I can feel it.
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Absolute pathetic effort by Michigan this 2nd half. LB Mike McCray absolutely sucks in pass coverage. Safeties Tyree Kinnel and Josh Mettellus absolutely suck in man coverage. So naturally their coach Don Brown puts them in man coverage all game long. Makes sense. His scheme works well against pro style teams and teams that are over matched and don't have athletes on offense. Spread teams with athletes? HAVE TO CHANGE THE GOD DAMN SCHEME. Ohio State will shred his defense if he doesn't change it up.
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There's the real Chris Evans. Go sideways instead of straight ahead. Why isn't this kid playing that "super-back/slot WR" role that Meyer made famous? THAT is what he is. Not a running back. So stop trying to make him a running back Jeem.
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Hey what do you know, you send Evans on a pass route out of the backfield and get him in space and he takes a little catch and goes 20 yards.
Jeem is so smart he's fuckin stupid.
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Another BS PI
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Donovan Peoples Jones got interfered there but I'm starting to fear the kid might be Steve Breaston. Can get open deep basically whenever he wants because he's such a freak athlete but can't make the tough contested catch down the field.
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Another BS PI
Are you on meth? DPJ was raped on that play.
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Are you on meth? DPJ was raped on that play.
Are you?!?
How do you think he got THAT WIDE OPEN???!!
He pushed off, and the ball got there at the same time.
BS
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If only Chris Evans was like 225-230 and not 190. Way too small and slight, goes down way too easy, but boy oh boy does he have moves for days when he's got space. Such a smooth athlete.
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Are you?!?
How do you think he got THAT WIDE OPEN???!!
He pushed off, and the ball got there at the same time.
BS
No, I don't do drugs. The evil refs aren't holding your team back. Your team just sucks.
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Georgia down 40-10
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Georgia down 40-10
Holy shit. I've been to into this Michigan game to pay attention.
Maybe the problem wasn't Richt? I don't remember Richt really getting blown out like that in big games. His MO was to lose big ones close.
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You must be blind then.
The guy couldn't even see the play that threw the flag!
Randy's buddy.
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You must be blind then.
The guy couldn't even see the play that threw the flag!
Randy's buddy.
There is no conspiracy against Maryland with the refs. Please take off the tin foil hat. It was clearly PI. Defender never turned his head to play the ball and he basically tried to tackle DPJ as soon as DPJ went up for the ball and it was well before the ball ever got there.
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No, I don't do drugs. The evil refs aren't holding your team back. Your team just sucks.
Ha!
Our 5th string QB has strung together more offense vs Michigan than your last few opponents.
Having the refs on your side just adds salt to the wound.
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2 most penalized teams!?!?
FIRST PENALTY ON MICHIGAN IN THE GAME AT 2:00 MARK!
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It bugs me what Terps has become. There is a faction on WVU's board that is the exact same way. They've never seen a game that WVU was treated fairly by the officials.
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It bugs me what Terps has become. There is a faction on WVU's board that is the exact same way. They've never seen a game that WVU was treated fairly by the officials.
Uh, it's not me bud.
DJ said he is done sending shit to the office.
It's pointless. Every time, they say they were wrong, but it does nothing after the fact, and they keep throwing the flags.
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I don't think WVU will lose to a KSU team on QB number 4? but they might.
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Couldn't happen to a bigger douche. I don't know how in the hell you leave Wisconsin for that job. I'm only leaving Wisconsin for an SEC job if it's Bama, Florida, Georgia, or LSU. He was insane for leaving.
Ironic statement there...
You'd leave if the big money didn't like you, and a lot of it did not like him. He still had his boss' support, but that was starting to show signs as time went on.
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So with Peters not really being developed at all and the coaches not testing him or putting anything on his plate to prep him for the last two games that actually matter, DPJ still struggling to connect on the deep ball, and Higdon limping off....ZERO shot they beat Wisconsin next week. It's going to be a blood bath. I do think Michigan's defense is better suited vs a team like Wisconsin vs one that runs a wide open spread. I say that bc Don Brown refuses to adjust scheme and puts slow ass Mike McCray in man coverage on RBs and safeties Josh Mettellus and Tyree Kinnel in man to man on WRs and all 3 of them get burned play after play after play. Offenses like PSU/OSU that spread it out tend to burn those guys more in pass coverage than your traditional pro style offense.
Michigan's D will show up and keep them in the game. Michigan ass awful offense is going to get destroyed and make sure they lose the game though.
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NU and Purdue scoreless after 1 quarter
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Thorson rushing TD
PAT is good
Purdue 0
NU 7
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I don't think WVU will lose to a KSU team on QB number 4? but they might.
I'm shocked they found a way to win that. That game went exactly like I thought it would.
Lose turnover battle- check
Lose ST battle- check
Lose field position battle- check
That's Bill Snyder's old family recipe.
The only thing I didn't count on was WVU prevailing with all that happening. But you're right. Facing a 3rd string QB probably helped. Whatever. I'll take it.
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96-yard drive capped by 'Cat TD pass with :16 left in the 2nd quarter
Purdue 0
NU 14
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The Northwestern D was like a brick wall on that 4th and inches near the goal line.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/cOo3aeD9Jzxh6/giphy.gif)
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Halftime score:
Purdue 0
NU 14
go 'Cats!
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Miami just taking it to ND right now. Wow.
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Yeah, I thought ND would handle them.
So Miami's kicker has tied the all-time school record for FGs made, with Carlos Huerta. All the more amazing when you take into account that Huerta, by my count, played for about 19 years for the Canes.
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'Cat FG
Purdue 0
NU 17
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What's going on, down in Starkville?
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Does Brian Kelly think he's playing Madden? Dude is on his own 30 yard line and he's going for it on 4th down? I don't care if it's 4th and 1. Punt it. You don't get that the game is over. Miami would have only 30 yards to go for a TD and they'd be guaranteed 3. He's lucky the refs gave him that TO bc they weren't about to make it.
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Holy shit. I've been to into this Michigan game to pay attention.
Maybe the problem wasn't Richt? I don't remember Richt really getting blown out like that in big games. His MO was to lose big ones close.
The last big, BIG game UGA played was a few years back. Bama came to town, and it was notable because it was the first regular season game Bama was an underdog for in like 6 years or something like that.
UGA gets down 38-3 at home before losing 38-10. So Richt wasn't immune to getting killed. UGA also lost 27-3 that year to Florida. Lost 35-7 vs USCe in 2012. 42-10 to LSU in the SECCG in 2011. 2 blowout losses in 2009 - 45-19 and 41-17 to UTK and UF, respectively.
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another 'Cat FG
Purdue 0
NU 20
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Can the top 3 teams all go down? Looks like a possibility at this point. Btw, Appy St won a basketball game 135-34 today.
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Miami up 20-0 on ND with 6 mins left in the 2nd QTR.
Miami defense absolutely smothering ND. Wimbush being forced to throw by the Miami defense and he just hasn't been able too. His arm is very erratic. His footwork is awful.
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Miami up 20-0 on ND with 6 mins left in the 2nd QTR.
Miami defense absolutely smothering ND. Wimbush being forced to throw by the Miami defense and he just hasn't been able too. His arm is very erratic. His footwork is awful.
I'll be honest, I thought ND would smoke them.
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I'll be honest, I thought ND would smoke them.
I thought ND would win. Didn't think they'd smoke them though. ND was running over everyone. Wimbush didn't have to throw. The run game has been stuffed. Without it Wimbush hasn't been able to throw the ball. His arm is pretty bad IMO. Stuff the run and ND is a completely different offense and team.
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Boiler TD and converted PAT
Purdue 7
NU 20
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After 3 quarters:
Purdue 7
NU 20
- go 'cats!
[starts Jumping Around in his apt with the shades down]
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Kelly coaches like he's playing Madden. You're getting your ass kicked.Kneel and go into the half and make adjustments. What does he do though? Pull his starting QB and throw out his back up QB with no time outs and try to run the 2 min. Back up QB throws a pick 6. 27-0 at half. This game is over. Goodnight ND.
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'Cat FG
Purdue 7
NU 23
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Miami looks like a team without a real QB or offense. If Richt had himself a Matt Stafford or Jacob Eason this Miami team would be pretty special because that defense is pretty filthy.
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Kelly coaches like he's playing Madden. You're getting your ass kicked.Kneel and go into the half and make adjustments. What does he do though? Pull his starting QB and throw out his back up QB with no time outs and try to run the 2 min. Back up QB throws a pick 6. 27-0 at half. This game is over. Goodnight ND.
More often then not that strategy has worked pretty well for him at all three coaching stops.
In fact, that's what got him where he is today.
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Bama beefed a FG that would've given 'em the lead.
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Purdue TD ... 2-point conversion is no good
Purdue 13
NU 23
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Bulldogs beefed it.
TD Tide.
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Mississippi State gonna Mississippi State.
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Final score:
Purdue 13
Northwestern 23
go 'Cats! :)
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AZ may run for 500+ tonight. ASU/UCLA trying to run 200 plays.
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AZ may run for 500+ tonight. ASU/UCLA trying to run 200 plays.
Arizona is this year's fun team.
QB stats:
GT completed 3 passes, 2 for TDs and one for a pick 6 and won
Army threw 1 pass for 41 yards and won
Navy's backup (or 3rd string?) QB threw 1 pass it was picked and he had a 98.4 QBR. Rushing for 285 might of had something to do with that rating tho and also won.
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A lot of good, quality teams got their asses handed to them today. Hmmph.
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So chippy at the rose bowl. A blk punt td, and asu ties it.
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Iowa had 11 more yards than it had points last week, and UW won comfortably despite two pick-sixes.
Three option teams I enjoy won key games.
I enjoyed yesterday.
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a good football day yesterday
if I could only block out the collapse vs the Gophers
corngrats to the boat rowers
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Arizona is this year's fun team.
QB stats:
GT completed 3 passes, 2 for TDs and one for a pick 6 and won
Army threw 1 pass for 41 yards and won
Navy's backup (or 3rd string?) QB threw 1 pass it was picked and he had a 98.4 QBR. Rushing for 285 might of had something to do with that rating tho and also won.
Funny story about that.
He started for the injured starter, so that sort of makes him the No. 2. But he's not on the depth chart at QB. He's a starting wingback, who came into yesterday with 454 yards on 10.3 a carry. Their listed No. 2 QB only played to run three times and set up the game-winning field goal. Their listed No. 3 is a kick returner.
What's even weirder is the kid who ran for all those yards was the fourth stringer last year who had to get pulled out of the student section in the opener.
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Well if there were any doubts about Butch Jones/Bret Bielema's futures they were sealed yesterday.MSU/OSU & UW/IA turned into clunkers.OK ST/IA ST & VTech/GTech held up their ends
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A lot of good, quality teams got their asses handed to them today. Hmmph.
Yeah you can never predict these things. Schedule looked primed to be the best Saturday of the year, and instead 5 of the 7 games between ranked teams were blowouts. Next week as of now we have no such matchups...so expect all kinds of fun.
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Week 11 Tournament projections
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
2 CLEMSON
NOON - espn2
25 BOISE STATE
3 MIAMI
1:30 - ESPN
9 OHIO STATE
8 NOTRE DAME
3:00 - ABC
15 CENTRAL FLORIDA
5 WISCONSIN
4:30 - espn2
TROY
1 ALABAMA
6:00 - ESPN
11 USC
7 GEORGIA
7:30 - ABC
TOLEDO
4 OKLAHOMA
9:00 - espn2
12 TCU
6 AUBURN
10:30 - ESPN
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The playoff has changed cfb in an interesting way. It has fundamentally changed rooting interests into something much more similar to the CBB model than the old CFB model. Allow me to explain:
In CBB if your team is a bubble team your rooting interest is generally to always root for the favories/higher ranked teams because upsets by fellow bubble teams are bad for your teams chances.
Pre-playoff in CFB if your team was on the BCSNCG or NC "bubble" your rooting interest was always to root for upsets because you needed highly-ranked teams to lose in order to clear a path.
Looking at Ohio State right now, they are basically a playoff "bubble team". They aren't in, and obviously would not be in the CFP if the season ended today. However, they aren't completely out because there is at least a theoretical chance that they could make the top-4. If you are a fan of a bubble team and you want them in the playoff then your rooting interest is for:
- The higher ranked team in the SEC (because Bama winning out would eliminate Auburn and UGA as competitors.
- The better record team in the ACC (because Miami winning out would eliminate Clemson as a competitor.
- Upsets in the B12 (because Ohio State can't pass Oklahoma without Oklahoma losing at least once.
- Anybody who plays Notre Dame (because the Irish at 10-2 are a competitor but at 9-3 or 8-4 they aren't.
My thoughts on the field at this point:
IMHO, the following teams all control their own destiny:
- #1 Bama: If they win out they'll stay #1 and take out #6&7.
- #2 Clemson: If they win out they'll stay at least #2 and take out #3.
- #3 Miami: If they win out they'll move up to at least #2 by taking out #2 Clemson.
- #4 Oklahoma: If they win out they'll move up to at least #3 because either Miami or Clemson will lose. Additionally winning out would take out #12 TCU.
- #5 Wisconsin: This latest poll makes clear what the rest of us have been telling badge all along. If the Badgers win out they'll move up to at least #4 because either Clemson or Miami will necessarily lose.
- #6 Auburn: If they win out they'll move up to at least #4 because either Clemson or Miami will necessarily lose and winning out would take out #1 and #7.
- #7 Georgia: If they win out they'll move up to at least #4 because either Clemson or Miami will necessarily lose and winning out would assure that #1&6 are taken out.
Teams that need help but are still theoretically alive:
- #8 Notre Dame: The Irish probably need a lot of help because conference championships are a stated consideration of the committee and Notre Dame can't win one. They do have a tough SoS but they need at least one upset somewhere and they have to be concerned about being passed by a hypothetical 11-2 conference champion such as Ohio State, USC (unlikely because they beat them H2H), TCU, OkSU, WSU, or Michigan.
- #9 Ohio State: I believe that Ohio State's situation is probably better than Notre Dame's because the Buckeyes can win a P5 Conference Championship Game and be a P5 Champ and the Irish can't.
- #10 Penn State: The Nittany Lions need all kinds of help because they can't get to the B1GCG unless Ohio State loses out.
- #11 USC: The Trojans need help because they probably can't pass Notre Dame unless the Irish lose again.
- #12 TCU: The Horned Frogs control their own destiny to a B12 Championship but they likely need a lot of help because that wouldn't get them past the B1GCG winner without an upset somewhere.
- #13 OkSU: The Cowboys need a lot of help because they can't even get to the B12CG without somebody upsetting TCU.
- #14 WSU: The Cougars control their own destiny to the P12 Championship but they need help because that will not be enough without a rash of upsets elsewhere.
- #18 Washington: The Huskies need all kinds of help because they can't get to the P12CG unless Stanford loses to Cal (hey, WSU did so I guess it could happen).
- #24 Michigan: The Wolverines need all kinds of help because they can't get to the B1GCG unless both PSU and MSU lose again. What makes that unlikely is that PSU's and MSU's remaining opponents are Maryland (home and away), Rutgers (away), and Nebraska (home).
There is almost no scenario in which any team outside of those 16 could make the playoff.
The teams that need help and Auburn are all basically facing elimination each game from here on out because a 3-loss team is extremely unlikely to make it.
Each of the six teams that control their own destiny and are not named Auburn could lose a game and still get back into the mix with enough upsets elsewhere.
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good post Medina. I still think tOSU will be (rightly) punished in a 2 loss team beauty contest for getting trucked by OU at home and by an otherwise punchless Iowa team.
As we saw last year, winning a P5 conference championship doesn't necessarily afford you any special exemptions.
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good post Medina. I still think tOSU will be (rightly) punished in a 2 loss team beauty contest for getting trucked by OU at home and by an otherwise punchless Iowa team.
As we saw last year, winning a P5 conference championship doesn't necessarily afford you any special exemptions.
I hope this is not interpreted as me simply being a homer because it is not meant that way at all, but I'm not so sure. As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast".
My impression so far is that the committee has been VERY forgiving of bad losses and that they are a LOT more interested in whom you beat than in the details of your losses.
2014:
- Ohio State got in despite a 14 point home loss to an unranked team that finished 7-6.
- Alabama lost to a 4-loss team.
- Oregon lost to a 4-loss team.
Baylor's loss (by 14 at WVU) was arguably better than Ohio State's and TCU's loss (by 3 at Baylor) was clearly better than Ohio State's.
2015:
- Michigan State got in despite losing to a sub .500 Nebraska team.
- Oklahoma got in despite losing to a sub .500 Texas team.
2016:
- Clemson got in despite losing to an 8-5 Pitt team.
I don't mean this to argue for Ohio State. I just wanted to point out that when evaluating teams with one loss, a bad loss hasn't hurt teams too much with the committee.
I also think it is fairly likely that a 2-loss team will make it this year.
There are only six remaining P5 teams with one or less losses:
- 10-0 Bama
- 9-1 Clemson
- 9-0 Miami (only plays 11 regular season games due to cancelled game)
- 9-1 Oklahoma
- 10-0 Wisconsin
- 9-1 Georgia
If:
- Bama wins out, and
- Miami wins out, and
- Oklahoma wins out, and
- Ohio State (or theoretically Michigan, MSU, or PSU) beats Wisconsin in the B1GCG
Then:
There will only be four undefeated or one-loss P5 teams:
- 13-0 SEC Champion Bama
- 13-0 ACC Champion Miami
- 12-1 B12 Champion Oklahoma
- 12-1 non-champion Wisconsin
In that scenario I think it is unlikely that Wisconsin would make the playoff. Bama, Miami, and Oklahoma would all obviously be in and the fourth spot would be between:
- 12-1 non-champion Wisconsin
- 11-2 B1G Champion Ohio State (or theoretically Michigan or Penn State)
- 10-2 Notre Dame (assuming they win out)
- 11-2 P12 Champion USC or WSU or Washington
At that point those two bad losses are a problem for Ohio State but everybody in this group has problems. In this scenario:
- Wisconsin played a weak schedule, isn't a conference champion, and lost H2H to Ohio State.
- Ohio State has two blowout losses.
- Notre Dame has a blowout loss (to Miami).
- USC has a blowout loss (to Notre Dame).
- WSU played a weak schedule and got blown out by Cal and Arizona.
- Washington played a weak schedule.
If I were on the committee that would be a tough call for me. I think it would end up being between Notre Dame and Ohio State and I don't know how that would get decided.
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Honestly I think OSU getting trucked in the playoffs last year hurts them as much or more. In a close call, why should they get a break?
But, if they finish as B1G champs, and the only other options are the Pac 12 champs or a 2 loss non-champ Clemson, or ND, not sure what they would do with that.
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Honestly I think OSU getting trucked in the playoffs last year hurts them as much or more. In a close call, why should they get a break?
But, if they finish as B1G champs, and the only other options are the Pac 12 champs or a 2 loss non-champ Clemson, or ND, not sure what they would do with that.
I heard that speculation too. OSU became the first non-conference champ to get in last year, and they laid an egg. Why should they get the same benefit of the doubt to be the first 2 loss team to get in?
But they sort of got the benefit of the doubt in 2014, and that worked out ok.