CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on March 12, 2020, 07:11:12 PM
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Well this is a bit earlier than I expected to start this thread but the 2020-2021 season suddenly and unexpectedly ended today so on to next year.
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There seems to be some chatter about maybe granting seniors an extra year under the circumstances.
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Link to last season.
https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/2019-2020-b1g-basketball-thread/
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There seems to be some chatter about maybe granting seniors an extra year under the circumstances.
That would really mess up recruiting, no?
I know UW has no open spots for their one senior, who would probably stay if given the chance.
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That would really mess up recruiting, no?
I know UW has no open spots for their one senior, who would probably stay if given the chance.
Maybe scholarship exemption IF you return to your same school?
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Link to last season.
https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/2019-2020-b1g-basketball-thread/
Why is the 2019-2020 thread locked? We can still discuss that, no?
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Why is the 2019-2020 thread locked? We can still discuss that, no?
Nah, that season is dead to me.
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Living in the past.
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That would really mess up recruiting, no?
I know UW has no open spots for their one senior, who would probably stay if given the chance.
Roster limits are by nature arbitrary. One could expand if needed.
The weirder part would be the money side for smaller schools, like if you bumped the scholarship load for a year. Obviously the price point isn't actually a year of tuition, but it's not nothing either.
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There seems to be some chatter about maybe granting seniors an extra year under the circumstances.
I could see this if the season were shutdown a month or so ago, but the regular season is over
go get a job
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Get off my lawn.
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I don't think it makes sense to grant basketball (or hockey) players an extra year of eligibility just because the tournament was cancelled. For spring sports (softball, baseball, lacrosse, etc.) I would support that, because over half their seasons are cancelled, though.
Michigan loses Teske and Simpson, which is significant to be sure, but I think the team will be better and a BigTen contender next year with more depth. Austin Davis is getting his 5th year here. I hope Castleton will stay but wouldn't blame him if he transfers. I think Nunez will transfer and don't know about Bajema. Everyone else should be back.
The incoming players are Zeb Jackson, a highly rated combo guard, Hunter Dickinson, a highly rated center, Isaiah Todd is one of the top forwards in the country, Terrance Williams is another top 100 forward, and Jace Howard is Juwan's son, who got some other decent offers (Dayton, Saint Louis, San Diego State), but will presumably walk on. They're also the favorite for one of the top shooting guards, Josh Christopher.
My early expectation for the lineup is DeJulius, Christopher / Brooks, Wagner, Livers, and center is a tossup with Dickinson, Davis, and Castleton. I would expect Todd, Johns, and maybe Jackson to be other main rotation players. Regardless, I think the starters will play less than usual because there is so much depth, but we'll see....
The big non-con games so far are the return game to Oregon, and they're in the NYC tournament with Baylor, NC State, and Villanova.
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As a fan of a team who was GREAT this year, but figures to be quite mediocre next year, it just sucks that it's this year.
UNC fans probably feeling the exact opposite.
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I'll admit, considering that Purdue was likely going to not make the tourney this year, this cancellation doesn't bother me as much as it probably should have.
This year's tourney would have been an absolute crap shoot though as to who was going to win it all. The parity level was extreme this year.
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As a fan of a team who was GREAT this year, but figures to be quite mediocre next year, it just sucks that it's this year.
UNC fans probably feeling the exact opposite.
Husker hoops fans are thrilled it's finally over
Husker Rasslin fans feel cheated
ya take the good with the bad
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Minnesota fans can say that their team didn't miss the tourney this year, and therefore they are better than Wisconsin, who missed the tourney this year.
:57:
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I frankly think that Chris Holtmann will enter 2020-2021 squarely on the hot seat.
According to thestreet.com (https://www.thestreet.com/lifestyle/sports/highest-paid-college-basketball-coaches-14774331), he is the 22nd highest paid CBB coach at $3 Million per year. That isn't that far off from Tom Izzo (#9) and his $3.957 but the results are. Additionally, Ohio State spent $110 Million (~$180 in today's dollars) to build what is one of the largest home CBB arena's in the country. Per Fueled By Sports (https://www.fueledbysports.com/largest-college-basketball-arenas/), Value City Arena has the 12th largest capacity of among CBB arenas. The bottom line is that Ohio State didn't spend $110 Million on the arena and $3 Million annually on the coach to field mediocre teams and that is what we are doing.
In Holtmann's three years:
- 2017-2018: 25-9/14-3, tied for 2nd/3rd in the B1G one game behind the league champions. Despite their high seed they got bounced from the BTT in their first game then got a #5 seed in the NCAA. They got a ludicrously easy NCAA draw in which their path to the NC would have been 12, 4, 9, 3, 11 but they lost to a typically overrated Gonzaga team in the round of 32 so they didn't even make the S16.
- 2018-2019: 20-15/8-12, tied for 8th/9th in the B1G eight games behind the league co-champions. They got into the NCAA by the skin of their teeth after going 1-1 in the BTT. They got a #11 seed, and beat #6 ISU in their NCAA opener before losing to #3 Houston and, again, failing to make the S16.
- 2019-2020: 21-10/11-9, tied for 5th/6th/7th/8th in the B1G three games behind the league co-champions (all three of them).
I've seen where some Ohio State fans think next year will be better as the team will have more experience overall but I disagree. I think this WAS the "peak" year. I'm assuming that both Wessons will be gone and I expect to see this team take a step back. If they do, Holtmann has to go. 2019-2020 was fine for an off year but it is nowhere close to the peak that Ohio State is paying for.
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Minnesota fans can say that their team didn't miss the tourney this year, and therefore they are better than Wisconsin, who missed the tourney this year.
:57:
I feel bad for all of the seniors, from teams with a chance to make a run. But I really feel for Lamar Stevens, who stuck it out for 4 years, just to have it ripped away, and the whole Rutgers fan base, and the one bid league teams who haven't been in a while.
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Holtmann is pretty danged far from being in the hot seat. They finished 8th in KenPom this year, their best since 2013. He would have to have a disastrous season next year to be on the hot seat.
They should be pretty good next year. I also think they lose both Wessons. Unclear if they lose anyone else. They add Cal transfer Justice Sueing and Musa Jallow returns from his redshirt year. They should have a lot of guards and wings but not a lot of big men. Biggest question for me is development of Kyle Young and EJ Liddell. If they can add a solid three point shot OSU is a national title contender. If not not, may be hard get production offensively.
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I feel bad for all of the seniors, from teams with a chance to make a run. But I really feel for Lamar Stevens, who stuck it out for 4 years, just to have it ripped away, and the whole Rutgers fan base, and the one bid league teams who haven't been in a while.
Yeah that truly sucks. Rutgers is at least in good shape next year
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I frankly think that Chris Holtmann will enter 2020-2021 squarely on the hot seat.
According to thestreet.com (https://www.thestreet.com/lifestyle/sports/highest-paid-college-basketball-coaches-14774331), he is the 22nd highest paid CBB coach at $3 Million per year. That isn't that far off from Tom Izzo (#9) and his $3.957 but the results are. Additionally, Ohio State spent $110 Million (~$180 in today's dollars) to build what is one of the largest home CBB arena's in the country. Per Fueled By Sports (https://www.fueledbysports.com/largest-college-basketball-arenas/), Value City Arena has the 12th largest capacity of among CBB arenas. The bottom line is that Ohio State didn't spend $110 Million on the arena and $3 Million annually on the coach to field mediocre teams and that is what we are doing.
In Holtmann's three years:
- 2017-2018: 25-9/14-3, tied for 2nd/3rd in the B1G one game behind the league champions. Despite their high seed they got bounced from the BTT in their first game then got a #5 seed in the NCAA. They got a ludicrously easy NCAA draw in which their path to the NC would have been 12, 4, 9, 3, 11 but they lost to a typically overrated Gonzaga team in the round of 32 so they didn't even make the S16.
- 2018-2019: 20-15/8-12, tied for 8th/9th in the B1G eight games behind the league co-champions. They got into the NCAA by the skin of their teeth after going 1-1 in the BTT. They got a #11 seed, and beat #6 ISU in their NCAA opener before losing to #3 Houston and, again, failing to make the S16.
- 2019-2020: 21-10/11-9, tied for 5th/6th/7th/8th in the B1G three games behind the league co-champions (all three of them).
I've seen where some Ohio State fans think next year will be better as the team will have more experience overall but I disagree. I think this WAS the "peak" year. I'm assuming that both Wessons will be gone and I expect to see this team take a step back. If they do, Holtmann has to go. 2019-2020 was fine for an off year but it is nowhere close to the peak that Ohio State is paying for.
Solution.
OSU should fire him and pay the next guy less.
(I also didn't think we'd get in this early on "when is good good enough?" but here we are)
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(https://scontent-ort2-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/89095328_3586280324775462_7088042377503309824_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_oc=AQkGKL8RH29AWxSCYE_oZJ0Uw9u-AbORx8F7gLXhIaAALXQgT39xz4QOaihP-dUnIoEpp5igTS-QkarKQNB19Q3U&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-2.xx&oh=a71aaf299d13d150cee240578b9e01e5&oe=5E8F88B8)
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Wow, the NCAA doing something quick and correct?
https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1238515080456810499?s=19
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unconscionable
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Solution.
OSU should fire him and pay the next guy less.
(I also didn't think we'd get in this early on "when is good good enough?" but here we are)
I realize that you are joking, but as an alum I want to spend what it takes to get the BB program to the point where it is a regular contender. Ohio State has plenty of money and spending >$100 Million on the arena and ~$3 Million/year on the coach indicates that the AD agrees with me.
I would have said where they win a NC but that has a lot of luck attached. I would love it for my school to win a NC (would be their second as the only prior was 1960) but ultimately I would NOT be satisfied if we won a random lucky NC but otherwise did not regularly field contenders. OTOH, I would be satisfied with being a regular contender.
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Medina could have had what he wanteddl...in a year OSU would have been likely left out as a 5 seed
https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP/status/1238544064536023040?s=19
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Per the NCAA (https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings), tOSU is currently #16 in the NET rankings so if they had just straight up used that (possible given the chaos) the Buckeyes would have gotten a date with #1 Gonzaga.
I'm assuming a long weekend 16-team tournament would be:
- First Round: Tuesday
- Quarter-Finals: Thursday
- Semi-Finals: Saturday
- Championship: Monday
So using the current NET rankings from the NCAA's site that would have been:
Tuesday:
- #1 Gonzaga vs #16 Ohio State
- #8 Louisville vs #9 BYU
- #4 SDSU vs #13 Villanova
- #5 Baylor vs #12 Oregon
- #2 Kansas vs #15 Seton Hall
- #7 Michigan State vs #10 FSU
- #3 Dayton vs #14 Arizona
- #6 Dook vs #11 Creighton
Thursday Quarter Finals:
- Gonzaga/tOSU vs Louisville/BYU
- SDSU/Villanova vs Baylor/Oregon
- Kansas/Seton Hall vs MSU/FSU
- Dayton/Arizona vs Dook/Creighton
Saturday Semi-Finals:
- Gonzaga/tOSU/Louisville/BYU vs SDSU/Nova/Baylor/Oregon
- Kansas/Seton Hall/MSU/FSU vs Dayton/Zona/Dook/Creighton
Monday Championship:
- Gonzaga/tOSU/Louisville/BYU/SDSU/Nova/Baylor/Oregon vs Kansas/Seton Hall/MSU/FSU/Dayton/Zona/Dook/Creighton
In the B1G Maryland (#18), Wisconsin (#23), and Michigan (#24) would have been barely out.
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I realize that you are joking, but as an alum I want to spend what it takes to get the BB program to the point where it is a regular contender. Ohio State has plenty of money and spending >$100 Million on the arena and ~$3 Million/year on the coach indicates that the AD agrees with me.
I would have said where they win a NC but that has a lot of luck attached. I would love it for my school to win a NC (would be their second as the only prior was 1960) but ultimately I would NOT be satisfied if we won a random lucky NC but otherwise did not regularly field contenders. OTOH, I would be satisfied with being a regular contender.
Like a regular NC contender? Or Big Ten contender?
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I will shamelessly announce our sweet 16 appearance this year
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Get off my lawn.
I didn't think you were like that given our conversations, but you do appear to be sliding into that role.
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(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fedge.alluremedia.com.au%2Fm%2Fg%2F2016%2F06%2Fold-man-yells-at-cloud.jpg&hash=d7cb7a9b7154056dfaeab7674dacd7b4)
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Medina, I don't really get why you are so against Holtmann. If he were paid less then you would be happy with the results? After some rough years with Matta, I have been generally happy with Holtmann despite some rocky Januaries.
It takes some time to build the program, so expecting a team that missed the tournament for several years in a row to win a national title in year 2 or 3 seems like insane expectations. This is not a basketball blue blood. Ohio State basketball is basically Iowa football.
I think if Holtmann can get a few S16 runs, 1 Final Four and make the tournament all or most years, then that is a success. If Matta were just making the tourney every year, recruiting well, and not having half the team transfer I doubt he would've been let go. Even getting bounced first round most years. Besides you, I think most Buckeye fans just have different expectations.
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Medina, I don't really get why you are so against Holtmann. If he were paid less then you would be happy with the results? After some rough years with Matta, I have been generally happy with Holtmann despite some rocky Januaries.
It takes some time to build the program, so expecting a team that missed the tournament for several years in a row to win a national title in year 2 or 3 seems like insane expectations. This is not a basketball blue blood. Ohio State basketball is basically Iowa football.
I think if Holtmann can get a few S16 runs, 1 Final Four and make the tournament all or most years, then that is a success. If Matta were just making the tourney every year, recruiting well, and not having half the team transfer I doubt he would've been let go. Even getting bounced first round most years. Besides you, I think most Buckeye fans just have different expectations.
Ehhh, I think that might be a bit much.
OSU has had some very high-level basketball, though less consistent than an MSU. I'm not sure it has the pieces to become that next level because there's like five schools in that top echelon and the structure of the NCAA tournament means there's just not enough winning to go around.
I think that Holtmann plan is generally correct because you can't really spend your way up a level. It's not all that feasible.
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Holtmann is pretty danged far from being in the hot seat. They finished 8th in KenPom this year, their best since 2013. He would have to have a disastrous season next year to be on the hot seat.
They should be pretty good next year. I also think they lose both Wessons. Unclear if they lose anyone else. They add Cal transfer Justice Sueing and Musa Jallow returns from his redshirt year. They should have a lot of guards and wings but not a lot of big men. Biggest question for me is development of Kyle Young and EJ Liddell. If they can add a solid three point shot OSU is a national title contender. If not not, may be hard get production offensively.
Like a regular NC contender? Or Big Ten contender?
Max is a lot more optimistic about 2020-2021 than I am, and I think that is the biggest (maybe only) difference of opinion here.
I think we all know that teams/programs have peaks and valleys. If Max is right and 2020-2021 will be as good or better than this year then Holtmann is fine and the program appears to be heading in a good direction.
I am not optimistic about 2020-2021. The Wesson brothers averaged a combined 60 minutes, 23.2 points, and 13.2 rebounds per game. I do not think that can be replaced with 60 more productive minutes.
Going into 2019-2020 I saw it as a "peak" year. If I am right then at this time next year Holtmann will have gone four years without a league title or appearance in the tournament's second weekend. His only team to have seriously contended for a league title was his first, with Matta's recruits.
As far as expectations:
I expect tOSU to be at or above their long-term historical average. That means roughly top three in the B1G. Right now, I do NOT think that this program is in the top third of the league. I think that MSU, UW, and UMD are all clearly ahead of the Buckeyes while IL, IA, M, PU, and IU are all about equal. That puts our program right around the middle.
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Going into 2019-2020 I saw it as a "peak" year. If I am right then at this time next year Holtmann will have gone four years without a league title or appearance in the tournament's second weekend. His only team to have seriously contended for a league title was his first, with Matta's recruits.
As far as expectations:
I expect tOSU to be at or above their long-term historical average. That means roughly top three in the B1G. Right now, I do NOT think that this program is in the top third of the league. I think that MSU, UW, and UMD are all clearly ahead of the Buckeyes while IL, IA, M, PU, and IU are all about equal. That puts our program right around the middle.
I'd be interested to see if that got him canned. I doubt it, though it depended on what the step back was. If it was a comfortable 8 seed, probably fine. The issue with CBB is there are so many vectors to success. You've got conference finish (sometimes fickle), team quality, raw wins (oft tricky with schedule), NCAA (super fickle). OSU had a team that on balance to this point played like a top-10 team per KenPom, but the hardware wasn't there, thus we feel worse about it.
Sticking with the top-3 number, I wanted to look back Matta teams were top 3 46 percent of the times. JOB was 57, Ayers 25, Williams 0 and Miller 30.
The real question is about the value of change. Simply put, it's not a problem that can be bought out of. More expensive coaches include Tom Crean at UGA, Mick Cronin, Rick Barnes, Larry Krystkowiak, Archie Miller. Holtmann is right there with Painter and Frank Martin (one dance in eight years). In the end, you need to find a guy you believe in and give him the keys and time. And for better or worse, a guy dancing every year gets 6-8 years unless there's an issue behind the scenes.
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It's worth keeping in mind this was a rebuild job. OSU was 73rd and 76th on KenPom the two years before. It was sneaky because he had a couple talented seniors in Tate and Bates-Diop, but it was a very incomplete team. Last year they had very little talent or experience. This year they were more complete and talented but still very young, and they had a lot of missed time. Next year they will be much older. They will miss the Wessons but they won't miss having to depend on freshmen or going 6 deep.
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Nebraska didn’t waste any time adding more talent to its roster for next season as the Big Red picked up a commitment on Saturday morning from Western Illinois transfer Kobe Webster.
A grad transfer guard, Webster will be eligible immediately next season. The 6-foot guard, Webster was a three-year starter and averaged 17.1 points, 3.6 assists, and 3.2 rebounds in 33.7 minutes per game last season.
The commitment leaves Nebraska one scholarship over the 13-man limit, but attrition is expected as head basketball coach Fred Hoiberg will begin meeting with current members of the Husker team. The addition of Webster gives Nebraska additional backcourt depth in the event that point guard Cam Mack does not return next season. Mack announced Thursday that he was declaring for the NBA, but not hiring an agent so that he can retain his eligibility. Guard Dachon Burke indicated last week that he is focusing on graduation, meaning his future with the program could also be cloudy.
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Stockpiling Kobe's? Heh.
Lots of kids named Kobe in that age range. Kinda like we had lots of kids being named Michael or Jordan, 30 years ago.
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UW 2021 PG commit Chucky Hepburn led his team to the Nebraska state hoops title yesterday. Chose UW over hometown Creighton, OOS Minnesota and in-state Nebraska. Happy to have him coming in next year.
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great player
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UW 2021 PG commit Chucky Hepburn led his team to the Nebraska state hoops title yesterday. Chose UW over hometown Creighton, OOS Minnesota and in-state Nebraska. Happy to have him coming in next year.
Didn't do much in terms of taking over (shot badly), but ran everything well from what I watched.
Weird game. His team ended on like a 16-0 run in a 2-point win. The other team has a Top-30 2021 kid and a 2020 kid going to Stanford.
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double double in the Semi
took over the 2nd half
https://www.omaha.com/sports/high-school/class-a-chucky-hepburn-s-double-double-paces-bellevue-west/article_cf4b81a0-bdef-5d5a-b83f-3c11cbdd3422.html (https://www.omaha.com/sports/high-school/class-a-chucky-hepburn-s-double-double-paces-bellevue-west/article_cf4b81a0-bdef-5d5a-b83f-3c11cbdd3422.html)
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Five years ago today I was watching UW and MSU in OT at the United Center.
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Me too Maxam. Me too.
That great run, only to be derailed by Dook's officiating crew!!
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Man feel bad for Dayton
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Me too Maxam. Me too.
That great run, only to be derailed by Dook's officiating crew!!
I recall watching that game again and not thinking so much of the officials. None not the calls against UW was super egregious. And it didn’t seem like the badgers were getting knocked around that much.
Couldn’t corral Jone and just couldn’t quite keep up the shooting at a couple spots.
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Me too Maxam. Me too.
That great run, only to be derailed by Dook's officiating crew!!
So, basically what allowed Wisconsin to win the BTT then backfired?:57:
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Per the NCAA (https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings), tOSU is currently #16 in the NET rankings so if they had just straight up used that (possible given the chaos) the Buckeyes would have gotten a date with #1 Gonzaga.
I'm assuming a long weekend 16-team tournament would be:
- First Round: Tuesday
- Quarter-Finals: Thursday
- Semi-Finals: Saturday
- Championship: Monday
So using the current NET rankings from the NCAA's site that would have been:
Tuesday:
- #1 Gonzaga vs #16 Ohio State
- #8 Louisville vs #9 BYU
- #4 SDSU vs #13 Villanova
- #5 Baylor vs #12 Oregon
- #2 Kansas vs #15 Seton Hall
- #7 Michigan State vs #10 FSU
- #3 Dayton vs #14 Arizona
- #6 Dook vs #11 Creighton
Thursday Quarter Finals:
- Gonzaga/tOSU vs Louisville/BYU
- SDSU/Villanova vs Baylor/Oregon
- Kansas/Seton Hall vs MSU/FSU
- Dayton/Arizona vs Dook/Creighton
Saturday Semi-Finals:
- Gonzaga/tOSU/Louisville/BYU vs SDSU/Nova/Baylor/Oregon
- Kansas/Seton Hall/MSU/FSU vs Dayton/Zona/Dook/Creighton
Monday Championship:
- Gonzaga/tOSU/Louisville/BYU/SDSU/Nova/Baylor/Oregon vs Kansas/Seton Hall/MSU/FSU/Dayton/Zona/Dook/Creighton
In the B1G Maryland (#18), Wisconsin (#23), and Michigan (#24) would have been barely out.
Lunardi's fake bracket matches BracketMatrix, OSU at #17.
Normally the first team out is just robbed of a meaningful game or two, but here it would be the #7 KenPom team
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Normally the first team out is just robbed of a meaningful game or two, but here it would be the #7 KenPom team
That is the difference between the normal, 64/68 team CBB tournament and the 4-team CFP. The 65th/69th team has no realistic shot at the NC anyway so their exclusion is irrelevant in terms of the NC and only relevant in terms of, as you put it, one or two meaningful games.
Ohio State this year would have been well above the 65th/69th team but could very well have been the first team out in a 16 team tournament just depending on how they selected teams. I have no illusions that Ohio State could have won a typical tournament this year. There is no reason to believe that this year's Ohio State team could have gone six straight games without a major offensive lapse causing them to lose. However, in a reduced 16-team, four-game tournament, maybe.
Ohio State's path to a NC in a 16-team tournament based solely on the NET rankings would have been:
- Gonzaga
- Louisville/BYU
- SDSU/Nova/Baylor/Oregon
- Kansas/Seton Hall/MSU/FSU/Dayton/Dook/Creighton
I certainly do NOT think it would have been likely that Ohio State would have won that, but it also isn't impossible to imagine. Michigan beat Gonzaga and the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines twice. Louisville and BYU are good teams but not impossible. Ohio State demolished Nova and could conceivably beat SDSU, Baylor, or Oregon. Any of the potential CG opponents would be a tough game, but none would be completely impossible to win either.
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UW won the only championship it could possibly win this year, therefore, UW > OSU. Sweep too.
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It's sort of funny how conditioned we are by sport. Football, we are saying the #6 team had their chance, they didn't earn it. Basketball, we lament all of the good teams left out of a 16 team field
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So I was hoping to do this later, but no time like the present to look ahead.
Badgers are facing an expectations year. I don't like that, but I think I'll like the cut of this team. Lets look at who is leaving, coming back, joining up.
Leaving
SG Brevin Pritzl - Just an odd career. He was a four-star who missed his whole first year. Hardly mattered at all the next year, outside a small stretch where he got random minutes and didn't shoot, the skill he was supposed to be best out. Was bad enough to get benched as a sophomore, got the job back after injury and was OK. Settled into being a too-timid role player last year, and then down the stretch this year, especially after King left, suddenly became more cocky with his shot and could torch opponents out of games on occasion. Played bigger than his size and was a function third guard starter (almost 30 MPG post-king). A credit to development and he'll be missed.
Returning starters
PG D'Mitrik Trice - Still a little small and occasionally inefficient, he's become the floor general in a big way, especially late in the year. Had robust assist numbers after King departed and generally seemed to take command. I'll be interested to see if there's another step in Year 5, but if he can play like he did the last 10 games, he'll be set there.
SG Brad Davison - Efficent shooter who does a bit of everything and is a solid, not great defender. Nut punching and flopping are issues. If he cleans up his game a little, especially as a driver, he could be special, but he was pretty good in the latter half of the season, especially with lower usage, and I imagine more of that is coming.
PF Aleem Ford - Before last year, he kind of had a spot in the rotation because he could shoot somewhat and was the only combo forward who could switch on defense. But last year, he got a little better at everything, rebounding, cutting, post ups, finishing. Still wasn't great at a lot of things, but serviceable at many. He was a staple in the closing lineups and I'd bet will be again.
C Nate Reuvers - His offense dipped late, and his scoring was always a little over-reliant on weird pull-ups, fade-aways and some awkward post shots. Still, a ton of offense ran through him and he was pretty productive, plus he;s the more mobile center and a nice defensive anchor. More than anyone else, I think he has another level to go do, but he was pretty decent this year.
Returning reserves
C Micah Potter - Popped on the scene and was really good shooting, rebounding, finishing, rolling to the hoop and good at shot blocking. Defense was sometimes so-so. Guessing he and Reuvers are almost never both off the floor, and if they can pair will be a big thing. I'm a little wary he can't keep up that shooting, but he's still real valuable.
F Tyler Wahl - This kid is going to be a key reserve and maybe starter next year and a two-year starter after. He's the kind of versatile tough combo forward that tends to come through the program. He can shoot, though he wasn't very good at it last season, can do a little posting, nose for offensive rebounding. If he gets stronger and gets that shot under control, I could see him in the closing lineup, but he'll be solid.
Trevor Anderson - He played 12 minutes a game last season, and that feels just right for him. He comes in, helps with ball-handling, provides a little extra energy. He was supposed to be a pretty good shooter, and we didn't see that, so maybe that improves. He's less important to next year's team than the year after's should he get the sixth year after missing 12 and 26 games, plus a transfer year. Hopefully he gets that.
Returning non-reserve
C Joe Hedstrom - A guy who got a 4-for-5 walk-on deal, he played 14 minutes for a team that had only one big man, and as soon as it got a second promptly had knee surgery. I doubt he's a long term contributor and see three outcomes. 1. As an injured 7-foot 240 pounder who won't play, he either decides to give it up or transfers in hope of more PT, opening up a spot for a transfer, maybe SG, this offseason 2. He leaves after next year, opening a grad transfer spot 3. He sticks around for the duration, being a nice teammate and practice player. If he ever plays, the hope is he's an enforcer near the rim. We shall see.
Newcomers
Guard Lorne Bowman - A tall-ish point guard who might win Mr. Basketball in Michigan. Looks like a smooth operator and future starter. I'll be interested to see what kind of shooter he is (I think OK, but that position asks a lot of shooting at UW). I think he'll have a rotation role, probably a solid one.
G/F Johnny Davis - Another key player, he went from a good recruit to killing it his senior year. He also apparently can score at the rim and from 3. He'll come in as the only true "wing" on the roster, which could help with PT. Another guy I think will be in the rotation.
PF Ben Carlson - He's the most advanced of the true freshman bigs, but still has a lot to learn. He's a top-85 prospect and had a strong last year. With UW's front court depth, they could redshirt him, but they tend to want one more available body than needed (see Strickland, Tai), and you'd probably want one true big with his feet wet before a season where everyone leaves. I see a 50-100 minute season getting minutes here and there.
C Steven Crowl - Reports are he had a very good senior season and is a good passer. Still, I see him as more a redshirt because of his rankings and need for the weight room. Maybe he'll prove me wrong, but the team doesn't need any more bigs for next year, barring injury.
G/F Jordan Davis - An developmental wing mostly added for his brother. Maybe he becomes a good defender? Hopefully he can shoot down the road?
Biggest questions
The starting lineup?
UW has four starters returning, and unless Potter really jumps Reuvers, I'm betting he's in there. So that's Ford, Reuvers, Trice and Davison easy. The question is do they get good at pairing Potter/Reuvers and can Ford handle some wings, so they can go massive with Ford-Reuvers-Potter, or do they shy from that and go Wahl-Ford-Reuvers with Potter maybe subbing at center? I lean toward the latter, but if the former works, that's cool.
Which freshman plays most?
This is in part a question of readiness and in part of lineup flexibility. It's going to be Bowman or Johnny Davis. If Davison takes to the No. 3 guard role (the guard who guards opposing 3s) as Pritzl did last year, I can see more Trice-Bowman-Davison looks. If not, or if Davis is really good, I can see him giving the team some more traditional SF looks. I assume both will be in the top 9 of the rotation, maybe top 8 with Anderson behind them.
The closing lineup?
This I'm not so sure about. I know Trice, Davison and either Reuvers or Potter is in there. I'd bet Ford is in there. Maybe he's not if they go two big and three perimeter, but I'm guessing its the two guards, Ford and a center. After that, I could see Wahl for that defensive versatility, or I could see one of the freshmen if they'd advanced enough and can go three perimeter as UW often prefers.
Bonus - Is there any more roster movement?
Realistically, that means Hedstrom leaves and they add a transfer to add experience next season. If that happens, I'd like a shooting guard with an emphasis on shooting and tall enough to slide to the 3 if needed.
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I can't see Hedstom leaving just yet, but you never know these days. He's not a Big Ten player, in my opinion. Of course, I don't think Anderson is either, but you do.
The latter was often too "out of control" for me. He could not help settle the offense and everything seemed herky-jerky with him on the floor.
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Adam Zagoria of the NYT saying Seton Hall, UM, MSU, Maryland or Marquette are the likely landing spots for Harvard transfer Bryce Aiken, likely the top transfer on the market
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I can't see Hedstom leaving just yet, but you never know these days. He's not a Big Ten player, in my opinion. Of course, I don't think Anderson is either, but you do.
The latter was often too "out of control" for me. He could not help settle the offense and everything seemed herky-jerky with him on the floor.
I think Anderson is good enough to hold a back of the rotation role. He'll never start, but we've seen teams with a dearth of ball-handlers in our time (thinking of you last two Jordan Taylor years). If Bowman is as good as I hope, he's probably down a few minutes. The herky-jerky part was notable, but he ultimately could kinda run things and handle OK. Again, if he can get that 3-point percentage up, which I'm told is a skill, fine to have.
Basically, I think Anderson has an acceptable floor to get some minutes. And if he's down to like 5 a game, he'll accept that.
Hedstom, I doubt he has that floor. That might just be because he's a giant and if you can't kinda move or produce elsewhere, you're at best a blocker in the post, and I'm not sure he's even good there. Plus, with things so tight, he could open that transfer option. I could see the staff saying, "this is likely what you'll be, do you want to stay?"
Of course, if everyone returns, still probably not bad.
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Adam Zagoria of the NYT saying Seton Hall, UM, MSU, Maryland or Marquette are the likely landing spots for Harvard transfer Bryce Aiken, likely the top transfer on the market
Not gonna lie, I kinda love this part where the Ivy League forces kids out after 4. Gives them a taste of something else.
His profile is also interesting, often injured, high-usage point, good shooter from 3 and Ft line, very good getting to the line at lower levels. Should be a nice stopgap.
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Okay... So Purdue...
Graduating seniors:
Jahaad Proctor - G - GT from High Point. Brought in because we needed a guard after Carsen left early, and he had the ability to create off the dribble and also drain 3s off screens. Well, he didn't exactly become Carsen against B1G defenses. Not horrible, still a good addition, but never lit the world on fire.
Evan Boudreaux - F - GT from Dartmouth. Came in as the rare GT with two years of eligibility. Spent his first year at the 5, which was a bad position, and then due to injury and the emergence of Tre Williams ended up getting edged out. He ended up swapping to the 4 (his more natural position) this year. He looked good in the non-con, then slipped production-wise as conference play started, before something lighting a fire under his ass and causing him to really come on late in the year. Either way, he has a deficit of athleticism, but tries to make it up with effort and heart.
Tommy Luce - G - The Human Victory Cigar. The walk-on who was 7-0 against IU and 4-0 in Assembly Hall, the latter [at least] a first in Purdue history. I believe Purdue was 42-2 when Luce played. Crowd favorite. I can't imagine what we'll do without him...
Returning players:
Center: Matt Haarms (Rs Sr), Trevion Williams (Jr), Emmanuel Dowuona (Rs So). Haarms and Tre are your rotation here. There was some thought that you might see "twin towers" this year, but mostly it didn't happen because Dowuona wasn't really ready to play and I think Painter was worried about foul trouble. On top of that, it's VERY matchup-dependent to need twin towers. But both Haarms and Tre are seasoned players. Haarms has more of a PnR/PnP game, and plays better rolling to the basket rather than posting up. He's also the big-time defender and rim-protector. Tre is the opposite--the post up offensive guy who has good court vision to pass out of the post with some crafty back-to-the basket moves. But his deficits are his defense and his ability to deal with the strongest B1G centers since he's only 6'9". If he can't bully you with size, he runs out of options.
Forward: Only returning player is Aaron Wheeler (RS Jr). The 6'9" athlete impressed in limited minutes as a RS freshman, shooting well from 3 and was a good rebounder. His RS sophomore campaign was less impressive. He improved his rebounding, and his defense was adequate, but he went into a serious shooting slump and never used his athleticism to get to the rim. He doesn't appear to have the ball skills to create off the bounce, and when he got the ball in traffic he looked tentative and didn't go strong to the hoop. At the very least, his silver lining was that he managed to hit free throws when needed, which helped Purdue in a number of games. Nobody understands why he can't hit 3s any more, but at least he's hitting FTs.
Shooting Guard: Returning you have Sasha Stefanovich (RS Jr), Eric Hunter Jr (Jr)... Sasha is your 3pt specialist, who showed some crafty moves off the bounce from time to time. Hunter played backup PG to Nojel last year, and seemed to play a little better off the ball this year, and dramatically improved his scoring from his frosh to soph year. He's a jack-of-all-trades offensively, but without any elite individual skills. So we're trying to figure out what he is.
Point Guard: Returning you have Nojel Eastern (Sr) and Isaiah Thompson (So). Eastern is a big-body defensive specialist who has yet to have figured out his offensive game. And calling him a "point guard" is not really accurate, because he's kinda a guy who brings the ball up and initiates the offense but really doesn't participate after that... Isaiah Thompson came in unheralded as the younger brother of PJ, but became an offensive spark off the bench and started hitting 3s about mid-season. His offensive game is still in progress, and he's still undersized to be relied on to finish at the rim or really stand up defensively, but perhaps the off-season will help that.
New Players:
Redshirts: Mason Gillis (F) and Brandon Newman (G). Gillis had major injury problems during HS and is >2 years from meaningful action. We don't know what we're going to get from him, but there are high hopes since our only other 4 is Wheeler. So... We'll see. Newman came in as a very highly touted recruit behind a number of other guys... This one we have a lot higher expectations for, but conversely maybe slightly less need. Newman should be a shooter, and that *is* something we really need.
Incoming frosh: Jaden Ivey (SG), Ethan Morton (PG), Zach Edey (C). Edey is almost assuredly a redshirt. He's a project and there are multiple players ahead of him as a center. Ivey is a coach's son (mom is a coach at ND) and looks to be ready on day one. Morton at 6'6" with ability to score and distribute looks to also be ready from day one. Neither Ivey nor Morton are expected to RS.
Conclusion:
We'll see. This year was a disappointment because it didn't appear that the pieces fit. There are some good pieces coming in, but we still have a hole at the 4 spot and we need the shooters to show up like they didn't this year. TBD, I guess...
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Morton has become a bit of a local darling, by staying at his local HS, in a depressed steel town north of Pittsburgh, and has them rolling through the state playoffs. This is a school that has generally been so bad at sports over the past two decades, they opted to play out of their geographical section going forward, because they can no longer compete with Pittsburgh area districts.
I've been to the courthouse up in Butler, more buildings boarded up than open. Natural gas industry helped a little. Not sure if they could have beaten the Philly schools, but it's a shame well probably never get to see it now. He's probably the second most high profile basketball player from Western PA in my 14 years living here, behind only Dajuan Blair. And Blair had the advantage of playing for a city school, and committing to Pitt.
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The commitment leaves Nebraska one scholarship over the 13-man limit, but attrition is expected as head basketball coach Fred Hoiberg will begin meeting with current members of the Husker team. The addition of Webster gives Nebraska additional backcourt depth in the event that point guard Cam Mack does not return next season. Mack announced Thursday that he was declaring for the NBA, but not hiring an agent so that he can retain his eligibility. Guard Dachon Burke indicated last week that he is focusing on graduation, meaning his future with the program could also be cloudy.
Nebraska guard Jervay Green has entered the transfer portal, per a source.
Green, a 6-foot-3, 200-pound shooting guard originally from Denver averaged 8.2 points and 4.2 rebounds per game in his one season in Lincoln. Green appeared in 29 games, making 15 starts after seeing his minutes decline after he was taken out of the starting lineup.
Green, who came to Nebraska from Western Nebraska Community College, initially committed to former head coach Tim Miles, but stayed committed to the Big Red after head coach Fred Hoiberg was hired last spring.
The move puts Nebraska at the 13 scholarship limit following the commitment of Western Illinois transfer Kobe Webster over the weekend.
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The Hoosiers going forward:
Seniors lost:
- Devonte Green - One of the most "feast or famine" Hoosiers I think I've ever seen. He at least was interesting. Unfortunately, he was also pretty much the only outside threat IU had, albeit a wildly inconsistent one.
- De'Ron Davis - He finally seemed to find his niche as muscle off the bench in his senior year. He provided size and strength but not much else.
- Joey Brunk - Had some solid games but he looked like a guy that hadn't played much at Butler for most of the year. Smart player and used his basketball intelligence to make a lot of hidden contributions to the team but just not athletic enough for the Big Ten.
Possible Departees:
- Trayce Jackson-Davis (Freshman Forward) - Can't shoot outside of 5' and is only slightly less left hand dominant than Frederick Sykes. Still, his athleticism, strength, and rebounding will be intriguing and there's probably more than a few NBA teams that see a raw product they can mold. As of right now he's announced that he's staying but it would be irresponsible for him to not at least get an eval from the NBA.
- Damezi Anderson (Sophomore Forward) - Came to IU with a reputation as a shooter. Still haven't seen it. I'd say the likelihood that he transfers is about 70%.
- Justin Smith (Junior Forward) - His attitude and "uncoachableness" were obvious quite a bit throughout the season. Didn't seem to get along with his teammates or the coaching staff. Without having any inside info I would say that Smith and Green were the two most challenging players this year. I'm not sure where he stands academically but I could see him leaving either as a grad transfer or as a traditional transfer.
Impact Returnees:
- Al Durham (Junior Guard) - Streaky player and solid defender. All of the sudden a heretofore unseen chippiness emerged this year. I'm not sure what that's all about. He'll be a 10-12 ppg game player next year. Unfortunately, he can't consistently do what IU needs most; shoot from outside.
- Armaan Franklin (Freshman Guard) - Looks to be a very solid four year player going forward. Good defender, makes good decisions. Has potential to be a good shooter.
- Robert Phinisee (Sophomore PG) - Always solid. Rarely spectacular. Should keep improving as a shooter. Will probably be a 14-16ppg guy.
- Jerome Hunter (RS Freshman Forward) - Was rusty after coming off of basically two years of inactivity due to injuries and a scary blood clot disorder in his leg. Was a well regarded athletic 3 and D kind of guy coming out of high school. Hopefully he can still get there.
- Race Thompson (RS Sophomore Forward) - Came into his own as a high effort interior guy this year. Should continue that role next year.
Incoming Freshmen:
- Anthony Leal - 6'5" SG - Hometown kid - Highly regarded as a shooter. Could probably play some point. Highly intelligent and well coached in high school. May struggle a bit because he's not super athletic.
- Jordan Geronimo - 6'6" SF - Emerged as an under the radar guy after last summer. Very athletic and a developing shooter. Looks like he could eventually be a small ball PF.
- Trey Galloway - 6'4" SG - Coach's kid and plays like it. Has a bit of an old man game but is a sneaky athlete. Finishes old man moves with dunks and athletic reverse layups. Is a decent shooter but battled a wrist injury all year.
- Khristian Lander - 6'2" PG - He's currently in the class of 2021 but there's a 90% chance he reclassifies to graduate this year. #1 PG in his class and #11 overall player in the class of 2021. Hyper athletic and quick while still being a true PG. Not a great shooter. Shoots like a kid that has always been able to just get by people and get to the rim. That's going to have to change.
All in all, there are still some glaring weaknesses on this roster for next year; primarily shooting and a little more size. If TJD comes back as expected he and Thompson will be the only players over 6'8" on the roster. If they get in foul trouble then IU becomes very small. Small teams that can't shoot don't win. I would guess that there are at least two departures outside of the seniors this offseason and the shooting and size issues are addressed in the grad transfer market. Even with that, I have a hard time seeing IU doing anything other than being a mid to lower tier Big Ten team and hanging around the wrong side of the bubble... so pretty much the same as this year. If that comes to pass I'd expect Archie's seat to get very hot.
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I didn't think Michigan had any reason to explore the grad transfer market this year (especially if/when Josh Christopher commits as expected), but apparently they're a prime contender along with Arizona for Mike Smith from Columbia, who is the top rated option on Barttorvik's list. It was previously reported that Aiken from Harvard is also interested in Michigan:
http://www.barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&xvalue=grads&year=2020&minmin=0&top=353&start=20191101&end=20200501 (http://www.barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&xvalue=grads&year=2020&minmin=0&top=353&start=20191101&end=20200501)
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Wisconsin's only senior said he wouldn't come back even if he got the option. Didn't want to start on a PHD.
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Wisconsin's only senior said he wouldn't come back even if he got the option. Didn't want to start on a PHD.
Winston falls in the same boat, even though he hasn't come out and said it. MSU had a football player learn last fall that football and law school don't really mix.
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/03/17/simulating-2020-ncaa-tournament-an-attempt-stave-off-march-sadness/%3foutputType=amp
The Washington Post did a very deep dive in simulating the NCAA Tourney and your 2020 national champs are:
The Ohio State Buckeyes
I'm hanging a banner
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Wisconsin's only senior said he wouldn't come back even if he got the option. Didn't want to start on a PHD.
He could start a second Masters, preferably in engineering.
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Your defending champs, The Ohio State Buckeyes
Definitely leaving:
Andre Wesson, Forward: Elder Wesson developed into a pretty good shooter for the Buckeyes, hitting 42% from three this year. He was a flexible, dependable player who could do a lot of things (he even played center last year). He was not the most dynamic wing though, and couldn't really create much of his own offense.
Probably leaving:
Kaleb Wesson, Center: He explored the draft process last year, came back, lost weight and really focused on his three point shooting, also hitting 42% from three. It seems pretty likely he will explore the NBA for real this time. He was much more solid defensively, is a good rebounder, and his inside/outside game was tough on opponents. However, his post game never really got that great - it was somewhat inefficient and I wouldn't mind that next year we don't waste possessions on it.
Returnees:
Seniors
Kyle Young, F/C: Young can't seem to catch a break, missing the time the past two seasons with a broken leg, a sprained ankle, and appendicitis. But he's going to be the big man next year and I'm hopeful for a bit of a breakout next year. He was quite efficient on his offense close to the basket, and shot 63% from two. He is also a strong defender and rebounder. He will not post up as much as Kaleb, but the bigger issue is he can't shoot like Kaleb. He only shot 15% from three, and if that doesn't improve teams will ignore him away from the basket.
CJ Walker, PG: He had a bit of an up and down season, though by the end of the season he was playing quite well. PG play was a big part of the Buckeyes improvement this year, as it turns out it is handy to have a point guard. He had an o-rating over 100 his last seven games, and he looked much more comfortable attacking the basket. A senior point guard is a good thing.
Juniors:
Duane Washington, G: Seemed to up his game this year, playing as a secondary point guard and working to find open threes, where he shot 39%. He also worked on attacking the basket more, though that was kind of ugly and he only shot 41% from two. If he can get that number up he will really be something.
Luther Muhammad, G: Kind of an inverse Washington. His offensive game was pretty limited, but he has really blossomed into being a perimeter stopper. Would love to see him develop a post game or something that he can rely on offensively, right now all he does is shoot open threes.
Justice Sueing, F: A transfer from Cal, where he was a good player on a bad team. Will step in for Andre Wesson, and has the reputation as a much better offensive player. We shall see.
Musa Jallow, G/F: Took a redshirt this year after dealing with a foot injury. Not really sure what to expect from him - he didn't give them much his first two years, but at times looked quite talented.
Justin Ahrens, G/F: Struggled to find minutes this year, and didn't do anything but shoot threes. Really. He took 62 shots this year and 57 of them were threes.
Sophomores:
EJ Liddell, F: A talented player that the staff is excited about. He was somewhat limited to post stuff early on, but when Young got hurt he played a lot of minutes and his confidence grew. Developing an outside shot is key for him, not sure they can play he and Young at the same time if he can't shoot threes. More confident in his ability to develop a shot than Young's though.
DJ Carton, G: Obviously a big question mark here given he left the team for mental health reasons. If he comes back he is a very talented NBA lottery prospect, so it would be nice to have him back.
Alonzo Gaffney, F: Didn't play at all down the stretch due to mysterious reasons. Don't be surprised if he transfers. If he comes back, he's an athletic but raw player and I'm not sure what to expect.
Ibrahim Diallo, C: Another athletic but raw guy, though that was always the expectation. The hope is he becomes good enough to be able to come in at center next year and protect the rim.
New Guys:
Zeb Key, F: A three star prospect who has some old man game to him. Might catch some minutes because of them being thin near the basket.
Eugene Brown, F: A four star wing guy, will be tough to break through next year.
Possibly Seth Towns, F: Transfer from Harvard set to announce his destination soon. He's from Columbus and there has been a lot of smoke for him coming, but Duke recently got in the mix too.
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Your defending champs, The Ohio State Buckeyes
I've read that this quarantine thing can cause delusion.
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I've read that this quarantine thing can cause delusion.
Buddy it's science and now is not the time to question science
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Well, I'm a scientist and I always have questions. That used to be a good thing. :'(
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Welp. Sounds like Carton is leaving the Buckeyes.
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Why?
Seemed like he was going to be special. Greg Gard was on him early (first offer) and then everyone else started showing up, of course. That happens a lot to Coach Gard.
UW won't be a destination for him. They didn't even make his final 6 list, which was Marquette, Michigan, Indiana, Iowa, Xavier and Ohio State.
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Why?
Seemed like he was going to be special. Greg Gard was on him early (first offer) and then everyone else started showing up, of course. That happens a lot to Coach Gard.
UW won't be a destination for him. They didn't even make his final 6 list, which was Marquette, Michigan, Indiana, Iowa, Xavier and Ohio State.
Not really sure. Heard some thoughts he wants more minutes. Also read Nebraska might be in the mix
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Why?
Seemed like he was going to be special. Greg Gard was on him early (first offer) and then everyone else started showing up, of course. That happens a lot to Coach Gard.
Seems to happen a lot to Painter too.
One of our jokes on H&R is that Tom Izzo basically just sits around drinking Mountain Dew and eating Funyuns watching to see who Painter shows interest in, and then swoops in with all the lights and magic of Michigan State and snipes them out from under him.
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Not really sure. Heard some thoughts he wants more minutes. Also read Nebraska might be in the mix
here comes the Mayor!
I hope
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DJ Carton entered the NCAA transfer portal Thursday, he told 247Sports, and his availability did not take long for other 13 other schools to express interest in the now-former Ohio State freshman guard. According to 247Sports director of basketball recruiting Evan Daniels, Carton has interest from the following major programs: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Creighton, DePaul, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Seton Hall and USC.
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Some much needed good news
https://247sports.com/Article/Dan-Dakich-under-investigation-Scottsburg-high-school-basketball-coach-ESPN-145233895/ (https://247sports.com/Article/Dan-Dakich-under-investigation-Scottsburg-high-school-basketball-coach-ESPN-145233895/)
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nice
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Some much needed good news
https://247sports.com/Article/Dan-Dakich-under-investigation-Scottsburg-high-school-basketball-coach-ESPN-145233895/ (https://247sports.com/Article/Dan-Dakich-under-investigation-Scottsburg-high-school-basketball-coach-ESPN-145233895/)
While I am sure many parts of decaying rural Indiana are beset by "meth and AIDS and needles,” it's not polite to mention it on radio.
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It's not unique to the Hoosier state
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It seemed to become a little more than a formality before the season ended, and now it’s almost certain: Nebraska guard Dachon Burke will not return to the Husker men's basketball team.
Burke entered the transfer portal Saturday, a source confirmed to the Journal Star. The move comes four days after teammate Jervay Green did the same.
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I'm far from a Dakich fan but I get his point. Helicopter parents make being a HS coach close to impossible. School administrators don't help either.
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I'm far from a Dakich fan but I get his point. Helicopter parents make being a HS coach close to impossible. School administrators don't help either.
I mean, let's put it this way, the thing that got him going was legit. A school district fired a coach for what are probably not logical reasons (though knowing small-town high schools, maybe there's really logical season). There's a way to blast them, lots of good ways.
But invoking the social problems and jokingly threatening to lay hands will earn you some trouble.
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No doubt about it. He channeled his inner Bobby Knight. Love him or hate him, that don't fly today. Bobby would never make it.
Dakich is toast.
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I'm far from PC guy, but Dakich became a caracticure, and I can't wait to kick him out the door, whatever it takes. #BAMN as the kids say
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Seth Towns is headed to Columbus.
After some googling...
Towns is a 6'7'' wing originally from Columbus. He was the Ivy League's player of the year two years ago, when he averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds. His most eye popping stat is shooting 44 percent from three. His presence would give a lot more flexibility to OSU's lineup and might give them a much different starting 5, as he and Justice Sueing may both start.
There are concerns, though. He has played since March of 2018 due to knee injuries. Who knows what he looks like at this point. He is immediately eligible and may be in line for a sixth year due to missing two years due to injury.
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I'm far from PC guy, but Dakich became a caracticure, and I can't wait to kick him out the door, whatever it takes. #BAMN as the kids say
There was a time when he was one of my favorites. That time has long passed.
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There was a time when he was one of my favorites. That time has long passed.
I think that's kind of a shelf life with a lot of things that are transgressive and not PC.
Someone starts out refreshing because they tell it like it is. But that often grows grating if it can't keep up the facade of being insightful, or the person tries to keep pushing and thus gets annoying. (I'd argue this was deadspin and Clay Travis, among others)
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This is a good time for ESecPN and the others to trim the fat.
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Alonzo Gaffney also leaving the Bucks, apparently to pursue pro options. He looked lost the few minutes he played. Bucks currently at 13 scholarships, though if Kaleb Wesson leaves as expected, they might add another transfer.
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I think that's kind of a shelf life with a lot of things that are transgressive and not PC.
Someone starts out refreshing because they tell it like it is. But that often grows grating if it can't keep up the facade of being insightful, or the person tries to keep pushing and thus gets annoying. (I'd argue this was deadspin and Clay Travis, among others)
The problem is he stopped "telling it like it was", and just turned into yet another ESPN figure who created fights just to get clicks. I think he might still be engaged in a Twitter battle with Frank Kaminski
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There was a time when he was one of my favorites. That time has long passed.
I kind of agree. I still find him entertaining in those blowout games. But in an actual good game, he can't get out of the way and is distracting.
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I kind of agree. I still find him entertaining in those blowout games. But in an actual good game, he can't get out of the way and is distracting.
That's my Bill Walton take. When it's midnight, and I'm watching ASU-Cal, sure. But when it's an actual important game, pass.
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The problem is he stopped "telling it like it was", and just turned into yet another ESPN figure who created fights just to get clicks. I think he might still be engaged in a Twitter battle with Frank Kaminski
But was he actually different back then, or was it just new and different rather than staid?
I'm trying to recall if his in-game basketball acumen was decent or not. I honestly mostly tune out the commentary nowadays.
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But was he actually different back then, or was it just new and different rather than staid?
I'm trying to recall if his in-game basketball acumen was decent or not. I honestly mostly tune out the commentary nowadays.
It was. That was what set him apart IMO. Its hard to blame him when you see who ESPN has paid, and who they've she's over the past decade.
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Luke Yaklich hired by UIC. Good for him. No reason for that school not to be at/near the top of the Horizon League.
I was surprised that Saddi Washington decided to remain a Michigan assistant after getting offered the Western Michigan job, his alma mater. Not sure what he's holding out for, but if he's happy as an assistant then good for him to know that.
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Daniel Oturu of Minny announces for the NBA
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Luke Yaklich hired by UIC. Good for him. No reason for that school not to be at/near the top of the Horizon League.
They were a game away from the tournament this year. Not sure what they have coming back, but not the worst spot to jump into.
And yes, maybe Saddi just wants to be an assistant, lots of guys do, because getting a MAC job with no prior head coaching experience is pretty good.
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Luke Yaklich hired by UIC. Good for him. No reason for that school not to be at/near the top of the Horizon League.
I was surprised that Saddi Washington decided to remain a Michigan assistant after getting offered the Western Michigan job, his alma mater. Not sure what he's holding out for, but if he's happy as an assistant then good for him to know that.
Admissions.
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Admissions.
Do they hold their athletes to them? I also did not realize those numbers were so good. Interesting.
Also, looking at the STARZ in Illinois, it always seems like that talent is somewhat overstated.
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Unsurprisingly, Tillman going pro.
Just makes me more mad, he and Winston are probably my two favorite MSU players ever, were seemingly peaking at the right time, and just like that, never seen either again. This actually hurts more than Middle Tennessee.
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Do they hold their athletes to them? I also did not realize those numbers were so good. Interesting.
Also, looking at the STARZ in Illinois, it always seems like that talent is somewhat overstated.
Yes, they do, but to a lesser degree. But not to a lesser degree like some. Their standards are pretty close to the mothership's standards, which are high compared to most of the B1G.
Chicago talent is overrated. There a ton of street ballers, who, when tasked with playing as a teammate, fail. Not all, but so very many. Then you have the handlers and the baggage that comes with them.
It's very tough for the more selective schools to pull anyone out of the Chicago Public League. Of course, exceptions are there, but not very many.
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Unsurprisingly, Tillman going pro.
Just makes me more mad, he and Winston are probably my two favorite MSU players ever, were seemingly peaking at the right time, and just like that, never seen either again. This actually hurts more than Middle Tennessee.
Silver lining, their last tournament game was in a Final Four after gritting past an impossibly talented Duke team. They won't get MTSUed like Valentine and Forbes.
He's going pro and not just water testing?
(I had sort of similar feelings because I REALLY like this UW team, and found myself half angered they didn't get to try to do more, but looking at the fact that they couldn't lose to an Ivy league team in the first round to make the offseason more annoying. Granted, they only lose one senior, and he's a guy who only rounded into someone who I'd really miss the second half of his last year. But man he was fun for that half)
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Yes, they do, but to a lesser degree. But not to a lesser degree like some. Their standards are pretty close to the mothership's standards, which are high compared to most of the B1G.
Chicago talent is overrated. There a ton of street ballers, who, when tasked with playing as a teammate, fail. Not all, but so very many. Then you have the handlers and the baggage that comes with them.
It's very tough for the more selective schools to pull anyone out of the Chicago Public League. Of course, exceptions are there, but not very many.
A. I didn't know that. I assumed it was just a school that serviced locals and commuters, which can be uneven in terms of talent they bring in. But those numbers looked very not bad.
B. I didn't even mean overrated. I meant I looked at the ratings ands surprised how quickly it dropped off into 3-stars or that class of four-star outside the top 125. I thought Illinois as a state would at least rate better, and it doesn't even do that.
(This led to me wondering if Ben Brust, ranked 181st in the country, ended up the most successful Illinois product in college in his class. I think the answer is yes or sort of yes, given that Myers Leonard had one bad year, one good one and then jumped to the NBB)
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He's going pro and not just water testing?
Seems like he's gone. I mean he's married with two kids. Hard to blame him.
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A. I didn't know that. I assumed it was just a school that serviced locals and commuters, which can be uneven in terms of talent they bring in. But those numbers looked very not bad.
B. I didn't even mean overrated. I meant I looked at the ratings ands surprised how quickly it dropped off into 3-stars or that class of four-star outside the top 125. I thought Illinois as a state would at least rate better, and it doesn't even do that.
(This led to me wondering if Ben Brust, ranked 181st in the country, ended up the most successful Illinois product in college in his class. I think the answer is yes or sort of yes, given that Myers Leonard had one bad year, one good one and then jumped to the NBB)
Overrated by their handlers. It's sad. These thugs sell them on a promise, but no prayer. Then.. they are screwed. These kids could be great players, with real coaching. But, handlers.
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Where was Ethan Happ ranked?
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Illinois wings Alan Griffin and Tevian Jones to transfer. Griffin was a bit of a shock...was a nice piece off of the bench last season.
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Where was Ethan Happ ranked?
Tenth in a stacked Illinois class that included, a freshman consensus first All-American, a guy who woulda been good but for taking money at Kansas, a sophomore consensus first All-American, a guy who won Big Ten POY as a junior, a guy who rounded into a very good part of that Oregon team that upset UW last year, then a NW guy and some mid-major or P5 dropout folks. Behind Happ was at a two-time national defensive player of the year.
Happ was an odd one. On one hand, he was just short of a top-150 recruit, which is better than I remembered. I also can't quite pin down how big he was when he committed, but I know he was 6-7 and I think like 175 pounds off a 6-inch growth spurt. So it was some good projecting since he was two inches taller and 60 pounds heavier when he finally played.
He also has a weird career to look back on. His best play was as a sophomore and the first half of his senior season. He closed on a large dud efficiency-wise, which meant he somehow managed to come into a season as a projected conference POY/1st team AA, averaged 17.9/10.3/4.6 with a steal and 1.2 blocks a game at the center of an awesome defense, and not only did he miss both those marks, but there wasn't even much argument about it. Maybe he was always living on the edge in terms of the math of his game, but it slipped just enough to become annoying.
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Ringer NBA podcast was discussing rule changes. The two I kind of liked was a uniform three point line, which would eliminate corner threes and bring back mid-range game. Other interesting one was on shooting fouls, you shoot the FTs from where the foul occurred, to eliminate guys just trying to draw fouls on threes
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Have we discussed Elam ending on here yet? I'm a huge fan.
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I would also prefer a consistently rounded 3 point line and not just for aesthetic reasons. It seemed like every game there would be at least one turnover for Michigan because someone accidentally stepped out of bounds before shooting a 3pt shot from the side, and I saw that happen fairly often with other teams, too (maybe it will be reduced in the future, but I'm not sure). Making that change would make it more difficult for teams to get open 3 pt shots, but I'm fine with that.
I'm not sure what the solution is, but something should change with the bonus system. That said, the women's basketball rule with their quarters is even worse, and thankfully the men's game didn't adopt that proposed rule.
One idea that comes to mind is that for non-shooting bonus fouls, players get to attempt 3 FTs if they're fouled outside the 3pt line. This would disincentivize excessive fouling until the last minute to 30 seconds of the game.
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Have we discussed Elam ending on here yet? I'm a huge fan.
Yes, and I think we all are.
I think the only downside is the lack of the crazy endings. Bryce Drew and Jordan Poole never happen.
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Yes, and I think we all are.
I think the only downside is the lack of the crazy endings. Bryce Drew and Jordan Poole never happen.
I would love to see it in perhaps some of those noncon tourneys just to see what it looks like. I'm a fan but it would be a jarring change
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Ringer NBA podcast was discussing rule changes. The two I kind of liked was a uniform three point line, which would eliminate corner threes and bring back mid-range game. Other interesting one was on shooting fouls, you shoot the FTs from where the foul occurred, to eliminate guys just trying to draw fouls on threes
I wonder if that just bunches things up above the arc and has more folks looking to drive from the corner.
Perhaps it's because I root for 3-centric teams or because I'm a math dork, but I never really understood the fetishization of the mid-range jumper. It's a jump shot. It's a less valuable one, but one that complements a post game. It's perfectly nice, but it seems to often get talked up in just such a way.
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I don't think it's anything more than diversity. I like seeing players with different skill sets. Just like I'm not opposed to HRs, but I don't like an MLB made of of guys just hitting dingers or striking out, even if the numbers tell us it's smarter than trying to steal a base, or putting the hit and run on.
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Lincoln – The Nebraska men's basketball program will resume one of its oldest rivalries beginning next season, as the Huskers and Kansas State have signed an agreement to begin a three-year series starting in 2020-21.
The series will begin on December 19, 2020, with a neutral-site matchup at the Sprint Center in Kansas City before shifting to campus sites the following two seasons. The Wildcats will make their first-ever appearance at Pinnacle Bank Arena on Dec. 18, 2021, while the Huskers will visit Bramlage Coliseum on Dec. 17, 2022, to conclude the series.
"We are excited to renew this series with Kansas State," Nebraska Coach Fred Hoiberg. "There is more than a century of history between the two programs, and this is a matchup that our fans will look forward to over the next three seasons. The series upgrades our non-conference schedule as we build our program. Playing in the Sprint Center this December should also be a fun experience for our fans and student-athletes because of the number of Husker alums in the Kansas City area and the ability to make it a weekend trip around the holidays."
The series between the Huskers and Wildcats dates back to the 1905-06 season, as the schools were members of the Missouri Valley, Big Eight and Big 12 Conferences before the Huskers joined the Big Ten in 2011. The Wildcats lead the all-time series, 127-93, but the teams have not met since Feb. 23, 2011, a 61-57 Kansas State win in Lincoln. Nebraska's last win in the series was a 73-51 win at the Devaney Center in 2009.
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Livers is officially considering going pro, and it sounds like he's more likely to go than return even though he's not even projected to be drafted by anyone, though I do think he does have the potential to make it in the pros, if he improves his ability to drive and regains his 3pt shooting.
I don't get it, but it does explain why Michigan is looking at grad transfers.
It sounds like the other rotation players from last year should all be back, though, including Wagner.
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I kind of wonder if a lot of kids are going to go this route, simply because of the uncertainty regarding the start of next school year. Surprised to hear he's not projected anywhere. I'd take him as a fringe 1st/2nd round guy, and if he's still there mid-2nd I'd nab him in a heartbeat. When was POole taken last year? Like #30? I'd take Livers all day over Poole.
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UW's Potter said this to the Milwaukee paper looking ahead to next year: “It will be fun and we know it,” Potter said. “Obviously, we have to live up to the expectations. But our mentality is that we can do it. We proved we can do it through all of the adversity this season.”
I don't think he'd look at the NBA process, but a lot of folks do and he has some pop to his game. Hopefully for my nerves that's a sign he won't.
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PSU adds PG Sam Sessoms from Binghamton, who led the America East in scoring at 19.4 ppg. Not a great 3 point shooter though.
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Bucks in running for Jamarius Burton, a transfer guard from Wichita State. Would be redshirting next year
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Iowa's Cordell Pemsl leaving as a grad transfer. Averaged 2.8 and 3.2
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Ouch. Guard Luther Muhammad transferring. That's a significant problem.
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That's a head scratcher
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That's a head scratcher
I know. The guy started as a freshman and played tons of minutes. The rumors are he felt he couldn't expand his offensive game at OSU.
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Nebraska basketball picked up a huge addition on Saturday afternoon when former two-year Pitt starter, Trey McGowens, announced his commitment to transfer to the program. McGowens is expected to sit out the upcoming season, but would then have two years of eligibility.
This is the third transfer addition for Nebraska in this cycle, as the guard joins fellow guards Kobe King and Kobe Webster, both of whom have already made known their intentions to come to Lincoln for next season.
At Pitt, McGowens was a successful backcourt player, averaging 11.5 points a game each of his first two seasons. A former Top 100 player nationally, McGowens starred at Hargrave Military Academy before enrolling at Pitt.
The 6-foot-3, 175-pound guard will be expected to help out the Huskers in two years, after the Huskers lose Webster, a former three-year starter at Western Illinois, to eligibility.
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And now Bucks add guard Jimmy Sotos from Bucknell. Has to sit out year
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What is going on in Columbus? Seems weird.
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Woah, Matt Haarms in the transfer portal?
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Just read that. How long before Freddy calls?
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Woah, Matt Haarms in the transfer portal?
Dude... That shocked me so much that instead of typing "hammerandrails.com" into my Google address bar, I literally typed "wtf" because I was thinking of replying with "WTF" to you first...
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More recent interviews with Livers indicates he'd only stay in the draft with a guaranteed contract (ie. first round pick and limited 2nd rounders in some circumstances), which leads me to believe he'll be back since he's projected to go undrafted by pretty much everyone.
Now there are apparently informed rumors that Todd is just going pro and DeJulius will likely transfer, which would explain why Michigan is looking at grad-transfer point guards. I can't say I'm surprised (or even disappointed) if both turn out to be true, but we'll see...
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Now there are apparently informed rumors that Todd is just going pro and DeJulius will likely transfer, which would explain why Michigan is looking at grad-transfer point guards. I can't say I'm surprised (or even disappointed) if both turn out to be true, but we'll see...
Officially in the portal now
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Surprised at all of these. Dejulius was in line to be the starter next year wasn't he?
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Surprised at all of these. Dejulius was in line to be the starter next year wasn't he?
Yeah, a lot of these don't make sense
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Yeah, a lot of these don't make sense
Kobe King showing everyone the way.
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Several updates:
Colin Castleton is also leaving. The hope was he could develop into a similar player as Mo Wagner, but it just didn't happen since he wasn't getting stronger, he was a defensively liability, and he never gained any consistency on offense, either. I wouldn't be surprised if he's successful elsewhere, though, and at least gets a career in Europe.
Mike Smith just committed as the grad-transfer PG, which reduces depth concerns there with DeJulius' departure. It sounds like he's a decent shooter and passer, but we'll see. Jaaron Simmons was a MAC PoTY at Ohio before doing a grad-transfer at Michigan and he never played much as backup to Simpson's sophomore year (Brooks was originally the starting PG as a freshman in November that season, as well), so who knows.
Still waiting on Josh Christopher to officially commit, but insiders are confirming that it's likely to happen next week. That would make Michigan's backcourt pretty strong, with Zeb Jackson as a combo guard, as well.
I think Livers is still more likely to come back at this point.... I'm not even going to try to figure out what Todd is thinking.... Jace Howard is coming in as a preferred walkon afterall, so Michigan could still try to get another grad-transfer if either of them go pro or Christopher goes elsewhere.
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In hopefully the last roster change, Bucks add transfer guard Abel Porter from Utah State. He's immediately eligible and will play one season. Hopefully can provide depth at guard. Was initially a walk on and ended up staying the last two years.
Guards: CJ Williams, Duane Washington, Abel Porter.
Wings: Justice Sueing, Seth Towns, Musa Jallow, Justin Ahrens, Eugene Brown
Bigs: Kyle Young, EJ Liddell, Ibrahim Diallo, Zed Key
Expecting a starting lineup of Williams, Washington, Sueing, Liddell or Towns, and Young.
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Wisconsin transfer and portal news:
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Wisconsin transfer and portal news:
After Kobe King, he tempts fate.
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Meh. This is a happy team. I could see someone like Hedstrom thinking about. Sounds like he probably won't contribute much, but you never know.
I'd like to see the kid at least play a little though. I don't think people expected much from Kaminsky early on either.
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Meh. This is a happy team. I could see someone like Hedstrom thinking about. Sounds like he probably won't contribute much, but you never know.
I'd like to see the kid at least play a little though. I don't think people expected much from Kaminsky early on either.
A. We say that, and then one of the senior centers decides he's not happy topping out at 24 minutes a game. (I don't think this will happen, but that will be something weird to watch)
B. If they wanted a sit-out transfer (shooting guard ideally), Hedstrom departing would be kinda helpful. But I don't know if they do not do I know what he wants. If he couldn't get minutes when Potter was out, you're likely talking a best case of Jason Chappell.
C. On one homer board someone said linked Frank and Hedstrom. But here's the thing, Frank was a Big 10 8th man as a freshman. Joe couldn't get more work than being a filler before timeouts and he barely got that. In two years on campus, Joe has played 14 minutes. Frank was at that mark in his second game on campus.
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I think the comparison could be based on size only. That's what it is for me, anyway. This team is probably going to be favored to win the Big Ten again. I'm thinking they are happy.
It would be nice to get another big guy for 2021. We might see an incoming transfer after next year if they don't land one.
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Michigan loses out on Josh Christopher to ASU and then Isaiah Todd decommits and plans to go pro.
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I'm thinking Michigan dodged a bullet with that Christopher kid. I haven't read a whole lot about him, but none of what I read is any good. Lots of hangers-on and a demanding family who want to promote his "brand" and all that.
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Michigan loses out on Josh Christopher to ASU and then Isaiah Todd decommits and plans to go pro.
Highest percentage of CBs in the CB era, to not go that way
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I'm thinking Michigan dodged a bullet with that Christopher kid. I haven't read a whole lot about him, but none of what I read is any good. Lots of hangers-on and a demanding family who want to promote his "brand" and all that.
Mini-Lavar Ball
"I asked every college that we’ve spoken to, ‘OK, you guys have a platform. We have a brand,’ ” Laron Christopher recounted by phone on Sunday. “I told them, ‘We’re not going to stay (in college) forever, so we want to know how you’re gonna roll this out. How can we use your platform to increase our brand, as well as your brand? Both are important. They’re important to you, they’re important to us.’ A college shouldn’t be above a kid coming in and changing the direction of the school. I see that happening, wherever he chooses to play. I see that place being electric, and I see that place being exactly what he wants it to be.”
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Your kid ain't a brand.
This approach did wonders for Todd Marinovich, Ty Tryon, I ve lost interest in running down these folks.
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In retrospect, I'm kind of glad Todd and Christopher aren't coming. Michigan definitely needs to pursue another grad-transfer, ideally a big guard who can play the 2/3, though.
If Livers were to go pro, of course, they'd need another forward, but I don't think that's going to happen.
Otherwise, Zeb Jackson and Terrance Williams will have to be ready right away....
Hopefully this is all a lesson for Howard not to focus on the 5* guys and focus on the high-potential 3/4* types Beilein was great at getting.
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Hopefully this is all a lesson for Howard not to focus on the 5* guys and focus on the high-potential 3/4* types Beilein was great at getting.
This. You do need pros, but outside of Kentucky/Duke, where you can keep a constant pipeline, I don't think it's the path. Washington had two lottery picks this year, and wasn't going to make the tournament.
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Mini-Lavar Ball
"I asked every college that we’ve spoken to, ‘OK, you guys have a platform. We have a brand,’ ” Laron Christopher recounted by phone on Sunday. “I told them, ‘We’re not going to stay (in college) forever, so we want to know how you’re gonna roll this out. How can we use your platform to increase our brand, as well as your brand? Both are important. They’re important to you, they’re important to us.’ A college shouldn’t be above a kid coming in and changing the direction of the school. I see that happening, wherever he chooses to play. I see that place being electric, and I see that place being exactly what he wants it to be.”
I wouldn't think it too far fetched to assume Howard told him to pound sand after seeing that quote.
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Nebraska lands a commitment from point guard Trey McGowens, a transfer from Pitt who will have to sit out the 2020-21 season.
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DJ Carton picks Marquette. Luther Muhammad to Arizona St.
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DJ Carton picks Marquette. Luther Muhammad to Arizona St.
Not s surprise on DJ.
Wojo will let him launch 30 shots per game and won't demand he play defense. Then, off to the draft (DJ's plans - not my thoughts).
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Sounds like the G League is now signing top recruits for a decent amount of money, including Todd and someone else. Good for them. Hopefully it will reduce the amount of corruption in college basketball.
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The one and dones are going away in the next CBA anyway, just in time for MSU to lose out on a once in a lifetime recruit, unless he re-classifies, which apparently isn't totally out of the question.
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Also, I hate to defend the NCAA but the NBA created a rule, that the NCAA got blamed for, that hurt the NCAA, that the NBA is now getting credited with creating a new rule that allows players to circumvent the NBA rule that everyone hated in the first place
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I don't know that it's that big a deal for college basketball. Still, I would like to see the NCAA work with the idea that a decent amount of guys are going to get paid to play basketball. There is no reason to work against these people.
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Dejulius heads to Cincinnati
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I don't know that it's that big a deal for college basketball. Still, I would like to see the NCAA work with the idea that a decent amount of guys are going to get paid to play basketball. There is no reason to work against these people.
A decent amount do now. Dook, Kentucky, Kansas, etc. The pockets are deep in those places.
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Dejulius heads to Cincinnati
I'm not sure what their makeup is now that Cronin is at UCLA, but he plays like a Cincinnati guard. Not sure why he left UM, I was pissed MSU prioritized Loyer over him, I think he could be really good.
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DeJulius could be good, but he was quite inconsistent at both ends of the floor. On offense he took some bad shots, drove at the wrong time, and was reluctant to make the right pass, though he didn't turn it over much. Defensively, his effort wasn't predictable, which is especially noticeable when you play next to Simpson and Brooks.
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https://twitter.com/FredKatz/status/1251351851989184518?s=19
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MSU picks up a commitment from in state 4* SG Pierre Brooks out of Detroit, out of UM and Xavier. With two nearly identically ranked, identically sized, in state SGs in Pierre Brooks and Kobe Bufkin, the thought for some time was that Brooks would go to MSU and Bufkin to UM. I actually like Jaden Akins, who is a combo guard, with the ability to play on ball more than either Brooks or Bufkin, but is for some reason rated lower (I'm guessing size?) than either, quite a bit more. Not sure how this impacts MSU's chances with Akins. If they are still fully in on him, means they must like him quite a bit as a PG, considering how hard they are still recruiting Max Christie out of Chicago, as well as Emoni Bates, who seems a lock to be the #1 pick in the NBA Draft in 2023, the first year presumably they return to allowing kids to jump straight from high school, but may reclassify and play a year of college first.
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MSU picks up a commitment from in state 4* SG Pierre Brooks out of Detroit, out of UM and Xavier. With two nearly identically ranked, identically sized, in state SGs in Pierre Brooks and Kobe Bufkin, the thought for some time was that Brooks would go to MSU and Bufkin to UM. I actually like Jaden Akins, who is a combo guard, with the ability to play on ball more than either Brooks or Bufkin, but is for some reason rated lower (I'm guessing size?) than either, quite a bit more. Not sure how this impacts MSU's chances with Akins. If they are still fully in on him, means they must like him quite a bit as a PG, considering how hard they are still recruiting Max Christie out of Chicago, as well as Emoni Bates, who seems a lock to be the #1 pick in the NBA Draft in 2023, the first year presumably they return to allowing kids to jump straight from high school, but may reclassify and play a year of college first.
This reminds me, UW is trying to pull a three-star shooting guard out of Michigan to complete its class.
He's set to announce May 4, with some dust he might chose NW over Wisconsin, but Wisconsin seemingly having been some sort of favorites (he was waiting on in-state offers that have yet to materialize and likely won't)
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This reminds me, UW is trying to pull a three-star shooting guard out of Michigan to complete its class.
He's set to announce May 4, with some dust he might chose NW over Wisconsin, but Wisconsin seemingly having been some sort of favorites (he was waiting on in-state offers that have yet to materialize and likely won't)
Yeah, it's kind of weird how similar the 4 Power 5 type kids from Michigan are this year.
Kobe Bufkin is a 6'5" SG ranked #92 overall
Pierre Brooks is a 6'5" SG ranked #96 overall (MSU commit)
Jaden Akins is a 6'3" PG/SG ranked #99 overall
Julian Roper is a 6'3" SG ranked #137 overall
Looking at their film, as I said, I like Akins best of the four. I like his ability to play on or off the ball, the other 3 are clear #2s. My guess is Roper didn't get a UM/MSU offer because he's 2 inches shorter than Bufkin and Brooks, and can't play the 1 like Akins. Just a bad year to be a slightly shorter pure 2 in state.
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Michigan is definitely trying to get another grad-transfer at SG with Justin Kier from George Mason appearing to be the top option, and Michigan should have the best team next year of the schools he's reportedly considering.
Even if the rule passes to allow immediate eligibility for transfers, that probably won't help Michigan much with the number of credits that don't get transferred (same reason they almost never recruit JC players or non-graduate transfers, anyway), so I think it's smart to focus on grad transfers, regardless.
As for 2021 recruiting, Michigan has offered Akins but not Roper or Bufkin. If they take a grad transfer, they'll have 5 seniors next year along with the possibility that Wagner goes pro then, so whatever can be done for recruiting as restrictions on events start to get reduced will be more important.
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Some buzz Akins might drop for MSU sooner rather than later.
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This reminds me, UW is trying to pull a three-star shooting guard out of Michigan to complete its class.
He's set to announce May 4, with some dust he might chose NW over Wisconsin, but Wisconsin seemingly having been some sort of favorites (he was waiting on in-state offers that have yet to materialize and likely won't)
I'm hearing it will be NU (from an NU fan I know well). UW just offered another kid at the position over the weekend. Maybe coincidence, maybe not.
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NU has serious "need" which equates to plenty of minutes
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Apparently Kier is now deciding between Minnesota, Georgia, and North Carolina State. Looking at barttorvik's grad transfer list, there's only 58 grad transfers left, only a few of which have good offensive stats.
Franz Wagner officially decided to stay, though, not that there was much reason for him to consider going pro this year, though. Hopefully Livers will decide to become back sooner than later to eliminate the uncertainty there.
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I think he's done this in the past, because he has to interview for OSU to keep paying him, but heavy Thad Matta to Wake Forest rumors.
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There is no substitute for being able to shoot the basketball, and one of the best shooters regardless of level in college basketball over the past three years has been Trevor Lakes. Lakes, who starred at division II U Indy, and now he is headed to the Big Ten.
“I have committed to Nebraska,” Lakes informed 247Sports.
Under Fred Hoiberg, Nebraska has been very interested in getting old and staying old, and one way to do that is through the transfer option. Their success with transfers and the system employed by Hoiberg really spoke to Lakes.
At around 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds, Lakes is a forward who can come off of screens and is a high-volume shooter. His ability to knock in shots is something he feels he can accentuate with the Cornhuskers.
"(Hoiberg) showed me all of his play edits from guys who are similar to me," Lakes explained. "He sees me as a stretch four who can pick and pop. He says he will use me as a floor spacer in a variety of ways, and will make sure I am able to be open and get shots off."
Lakes only has one year of eligibility remaining, but he is not a graduate transfer. So depending on the vote regarding immediately eligible transfers in May, he could have the option of playing right away or being a sit one, play one sit out transfer.
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Worked pretty well for Duncan Robinson and Michigan
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the Huskers have needed shooters for a decade
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I think he's done this in the past, because he has to interview for OSU to keep paying him, but heavy Thad Matta to Wake Forest rumors.
Part of me thinks he was hanging around Butler until they hired someone. But they were pretty good this year so he might look around more.
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I think he's done this in the past, because he has to interview for OSU to keep paying him, but heavy Thad Matta to Wake Forest rumors.
...and they hired the ETSU coach
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You wonder if some teams are wary of scheduling a trip to Hawaii right now?
https://twitter.com/MattNorlander/status/1256284509944807431?s=19
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You wonder if some teams are wary of scheduling a trip to Hawaii right now?
https://twitter.com/MattNorlander/status/1256284509944807431?s=19
I think much of that was set before this? Maybe?
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Minnesota was set to get a Rice transfer who is a 6-8 guard with better highlights than I expected for someone so skinny.
But four days after committing, he backed out. Some theorizing the end of the free waiver plan had him wanting somewhere closer to home for waiver reasons. The only P5 within 100 miles of home is Northwestern, I think.
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Lincoln is close
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Lincoln is close
To?
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I'm hearing it will be NU (from an NU fan I know well). UW just offered another kid at the position over the weekend. Maybe coincidence, maybe not.
The Rivals UW GUY turned his pick to UW, so that's about all we need to know.
I still think they should go grad transfer for that spot and kick things down the road a year, but maybe if they get a more developmental player, that would fall into place. That backcourt is gonna be very green.
I know they offered a dunker with a Kansas offer, so that's super unlikely. There's a tall guy with a French background who also seems ideal.
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Michigan with another basketball transfer, although I can't say I've ever heard the name Cole Bajema before.
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He looked decent in the limited minutes he played (primarily at the end of blowout wins, of course), at least offensively, but he couldn't even get minutes over Nunez for whatever reason.
It's not surprising but strange that it took until May to figure this out, which is frustrating because now all the good grad-transfers are gone. I realize the redshirt requirement for regular transfers could be eliminated soon, but I'm still skeptical of if Michigan will be able to take any good transfers if those players aren't able to get their credits accepted.
The back court was already looking somewhat problematic and this just exacerbates that. Hopefully Livers will at least decide to return soon....
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The Rivals UW GUY turned his pick to UW, so that's about all we need to know.
I still think they should go grad transfer for that spot and kick things down the road a year, but maybe if they get a more developmental player, that would fall into place. That backcourt is gonna be very green.
I know they offered a dunker with a Kansas offer, so that's super unlikely. There's a tall guy with a French background who also seems ideal.
BTW, the guy picked NW. Nice pickup.
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Grad transfer would be good for that spot. Otherwise, bank it for 2022. Either option helps to balance the classes.
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Surprised nobody in here is talking about the NCAA actions against Kansas, Louisville, NC State, OkSU, South Carolina, USC, and TCU. They have all been served with notice of allegations...
Apparently there are (5) Level 1 infractions alleged against Kansas, including LOIC. Louisville with only (1) Level 1 infraction alleged.
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There's been some talk on it. Kansas is being really uncooperative, and quite arrogant.
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There's been some talk on it. Kansas is being really uncooperative, and quite arrogant.
So the NCAA is going to really hammer Oklahoma State, then?
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Grad transfer would be good for that spot. Otherwise, bank it for 2022. Either option helps to balance the classes.
I hope they go that way if it comes to it, but looking at some of the 2021 shooting guards they're eying, I'd take 'em.
Granted, if they can't get one of four or so guys, no need to take them just to take them.
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So the NCAA is going to really hammer Oklahoma State, then?
I'm sure Iona is about to get hammered for Louisville's issues.
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So the NCAA is going to really hammer Oklahoma State, then?
Does any of the oSu stuff translate to Underwood at Illinois?
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I'm sure Iona is about to get hammered for Louisville's issues.
I mean, they walked into that one
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I mean, they walked into that one
Yeah, I don't know what they thought was going to happen there.
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Lincoln - Nebraska men's basketball coach Fred Hoiberg will participate in the National Association of Basketball Coaches (NABC) Championship Webinar Monday afternoon.
Hoiberg's webinar on transition offense and spacing will take place at 1 p.m. (central). To sign up for Monday's online clinic for free or learn more about the NABC's Championship Webinar series, visit NABC.com.
Hoiberg's teams have ranked in the top-20 nationally in offensive tempo in three of his six seasons in the college game, including 16th this past season. During his five seasons at ISU,
his team ranked in the top 35 nationally in tempo four times, one of the main reasons his teams posted four straight 20-win seasons from 2012 to 2015 before going to the NBA.
Hoiberg's webinar is part of the NABC online series featuring coaches of all levels teaching different aspects of basketball. In all, the series has featured 89 coaches over the past month.
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So.. Zion Williamson got paid to go to Dook?
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is that a question?
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Eduardo Andre verbally committed to Nebraska early Tuesday morning, he tells 247Sports.
“Just speaking to coach [Fred] Hoiberg I feel like they are genuine about helping me in basketball and my development,” Andre said.
“I just feel like Nebraska is a good fit of all the schools recruiting me,” he added. “Watching Nebraska and the way they spread the floor out, run up and down and play fast. Just the way he plays I really like it and I think we have a chance to do something special up there.”
Andre, a 6-foot-10, 220-pound center that finished his high school career at Chandler (Ariz.) Compass Prep, picked Nebraska over Illinois, Maryland and Texas A&M. Although Andre was unable to take a campus visit due to the coronavirus, he did see Nebraska's campus and facilities via a Zoom call.
Andre is Nebraska’s third commitment in its 2020 class, joining Junior College standouts Teddy Allen and Lat Mayen. Nebraska also added three of the best guard transfers on the market in Trey McGowens, Kobe King and Kobe Webster.
A three-star prospect, Andre is oozing with upside and potential. Andre is mobile, runs the floor with ease, is equipped with good athleticism and has potential as a rim protector and rebounder.
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Nojel Eastern in the transfer portal?
Why?
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the Major has room for more good players in Lincoln!
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Nojel Eastern in the transfer portal?
Why?
Nojel's situation has always been weird. He's obviously got NBA aspirations, and his mom has been on the Purdue Rivals message board talking about it. I think there's always been a little concern on her end that Painter isn't using Nojel right.
My guess is that his mom doesn't think Painter is going to showcase his skill set in the right way to get him to the NBA. I think his mom has a vision for how he needs to be used if he's going to make it to the NBA, and Painter (being the bluntly honest type) is probably telling him that he doesn't believe that whatever Nojel is asking for will help the team win, or at the very least that he doesn't believe as a coach that's the best way to use Nojel's strengths.
I think he wants to be a PG and a scorer, and that's not showing in our system. And coming in we've got guys who can do that. He may not want "defensive stopper" to be bullet points 1, 2, and 3 on his resume.
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He was kind of a disaster shooting the ball last year. Forget the NBA just being g league or Euro guy you have to be able to score a bit.
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Holy Smokes... Apparently Painter went on Dakich's radio show, and he was not f'ing around (https://www.hammerandrails.com/2020/5/13/21257465/coach-painter-nojel-eastern-matt-haarms-comments) with regard to Haarms and Nojel transferring.
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told those kids to get going if they want out?
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told those kids to get going if they want out?
Essentially that if you want to make the NBA, you need to be able to be the big fish in the big pond. Trying to go be the big fish in a little pond ain't gonna help you, and if you can't beat out Trevion Williams or Eric Hunter / Isaiah Thompson at your own position, how are you going to take a spot from someone on the Pacers?
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I hear what he's saying but these guys aren't tin cans. A lot of people thought Eastern might develop into something. Say he goes somewhere and shows just enough offense to get drafted. If he sticks on an NBA roster that's like 560K for one year. That seems worth the effort to find a better pasture.
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This is strange all-around. Michigan has definitely had players go pro before they should've (Jordan Poole and Darius Morris) or transferred despite having great opportunities for playing time (David DeJulius and Colin Castleton this off-season all the way back to Ekpe Udoh), but I never begrudged a player for graduating and playing their 5th year elsewhere.... If anything, Beilein was sometimes too quick to encourage it (Max Bielfeldt was pretty good his last year with Indiana).
Sometimes a player's 5th year can go great (Jordan Morgan is a prime example) and other times it doesn't work out (the one grad transfer Michigan has brought in before this year, Jaaron Simmons, was an all-MAC player at Ohio but didn't do much behind Simpson on the 2018 team..... This of course makes me somewhat skeptical of how useful Mike Smith might be.
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Eastern made it clear in recruiting what he thought his role was, and most decent schools balked at that. Painter didn't, and to his credit, he kept his word...and it didn't pan out. A lot of times the kid gets it eventually, clearly Eastern didn't, and didn't think he had proven himself incapable of the offensive role he thought he earned.
The thing is, he's not an NBA starter. And if you aren't a starter in the league, they'd prefer you be really great at one thing, than the better all-around player. So IMO his best path path to the NBA is as a bench defensive stopper.
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Eastern made it clear in recruiting what he thought his role was, and most decent schools balked at that. Painter didn't, and to his credit, he kept his word...and it didn't pan out. A lot of times the kid gets it eventually, clearly Eastern didn't, and didn't think he had proven himself incapable of the offensive role he thought he earned.
The thing is, he's not an NBA starter. And if you aren't a starter in the league, they'd prefer you be really great at one thing, than the better all-around player. So IMO his best path path to the NBA is as a bench defensive stopper.
Although also, yikes, bad take here
"You might’ve got your degree from Purdue, but you’re not a Boilermaker if you walk out the door at the end and say, ‘Hey, I want to make the league.’"
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The two that stuck out:
"These guys are like, "Hey I wanna be a pro". I'm like, why don't we be all conference in college first? Why don't we try that out? So you'll get guys that average 4, 6, 9 or 10 pts and say, "Coach I want you to develop me into a pro." Well, why don't you work like a pro?"
And.
"I try to take a step back and look at it from their perspective. How did you better yourself? Are you going to play against better competition in the league that you went to? No.
Essentially he's saying that guys get NBA dreams but they're not good enough to earn the minutes at their own position. And that they think they'll suddenly become NBA draftable because they get more minutes against lower competition. More minutes doesn't help you if you're not good enough, and if you're good enough you'll earn the minutes at the highest NCAA conference level.
If Nojel wants to play professional sports, I recommend he try to pick up the tight end position. I honestly think he'd fit there very well.
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He's not wrong, but he's also not looking at it from the standpoint of the players. Haarms is going to have a career in some Euroleague. He's a decent enough player who got passed over - why would he stick around to be a backup center when he can start somewhere else? Eastern has NBA caliber athleticism and defense and a YMCA offensive game. He's got one more shot to show something and it doesn't seem like Purdue was going to let him show it. I get the point that it's unlikely for him to show it, but the stakes are pretty high to simply give up.
It definitely sucks for coaches. Roster building was already difficult in basketball and now seems hard to have any confidence in what you have year to year.
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I haven't listened to the entire interview yet. It can be found here: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/256-the-dan-dakich-show-podcas-31136070/ (https://www.iheart.com/podcast/256-the-dan-dakich-show-podcas-31136070/)
From what I've read in the comments on H&R, most of these statements are the more "extreme" excerpts from a ~30 minute interview where Painter talked much more kindly of both Haarms and Eastern.
I'm hoping to get a chance to listen later today.
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Georgetown leading scorer Mac McClung transferring. Mentioning because he's another who talked to NBA and agent, then transferred. Explicitly, the NBA wants to see him as a point guard, while he played more of an off guard at Georgetown
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Eastern going to Michigan?
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Eastern going to Michigan?
Apparently. I don't get this at all, even if he's immediately eligible.
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https://twitter.com/MattNorlander/status/1260972201102229504?s=20
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Tampering? Is that a thing in the NCAA?
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WTFF?
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Is Michigan playing at Purdue next season? I'm watching
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Is Michigan playing at Purdue next season? I'm watching
If Michigan has the same double-plays as 2018-2019 but the single-plays are reversed on location then Michigan will be at Purdue next year (and they'd be a double-play again the following season if he has to sit out).
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Michigan just added Chaundee Brown from Wake Forest as well, who is also not a grad-transfer so the future of the sit-out rule looms large.
That said, now there's some supposedly informed speculation that Nojel Eastern may not actually have been offered a spot. He hasn't officially joined the team yet, so we'll see what happens there.
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Michigan just added Chaundee Brown from Wake Forest as well, who is also not a grad-transfer so the future of the sit-out rule looms large.
That said, now there's some supposedly informed speculation that Nojel Eastern may not actually have been offered a spot. He hasn't officially joined the team yet, so we'll see what happens there.
Well that would be pretty weird
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Well that would be pretty weird
To clarify, now I understand that Eastern would probably just go pro if he weren't immediately eligible, which makes more sense.
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Ah gotcha
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Weird. I read a Detroit Free Press article talking about Nojel potentially being a big benefit to Michigan but ONLY if he has to sit out a year--I understand their scholarship picture for 2021-22 is wide open and they may not want to sign a 6-7 man class, so having an experienced upperclassman would help.
If Nojel ends up not transferring and staying in the draft, given that he doesn't have a degree, he's making a huge mistake for his future.
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Weird. I read a Detroit Free Press article talking about Nojel potentially being a big benefit to Michigan but ONLY if he has to sit out a year--I understand their scholarship picture for 2021-22 is wide open and they may not want to sign a 6-7 man class, so having an experienced upperclassman would help.
If Nojel ends up not transferring and staying in the draft, given that he doesn't have a degree, he's making a huge mistake for his future.
I mean, his NBA future probably isn't there barring a late jump.
Does that extra year really hurt him? Shoot, next year they've got like two guys at his actual position (combo forward) and still are kinda thin at guard. (I know he says he's a guard, which is cute)
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I mean, his NBA future probably isn't there barring a late jump.
Does that extra year really hurt him? Shoot, next year they've got like two guys at his actual position (combo forward) and still are kinda thin at guard. (I know he says he's a guard, which is cute)
Yeah, I don't think he has an NBA future. That said, given 1 or 2 years to work, if he can develop any offensive game, he could have a shot. This draft? Not a shot, and he hasn't shown enough that I think even G league or summer league teams would try to pick him up.
I think if he wants to go to Michigan, he'd have trouble earning minutes this year based on their known depth. Next year it would be more wide open.
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Josh Langford is going to try to give it a go one more time.
We'll see. Two foot surgeries, and a year and a half of missed basketball? Not sure what he's got, particularly defensively.
The crazy thing was when he got hurt going into Big Ten play in 18-19, he was both our leading scorer and best perimeter defender, easily the best player on the team. I don't think anyone saw just how much Winston and McQuaid would elevate their game.
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Josh Langford is going to try to give it a go one more time.
We'll see. Two foot surgeries, and a year and a half of missed basketball? Not sure what he's got, particularly defensively.
The crazy thing was when he got hurt going into Big Ten play in 18-19, he was both our leading scorer and best perimeter defender, easily the best player on the team. I don't think anyone saw just how much Winston and McQuaid would elevate their game.
That is a humongous wildcard for MSU and the B1G. He could theoretically come back at or above where he was when he left in which case he might be the best player in the league or he could just basically be a practice squad guy.
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Apparently the sit-out rule isn't going to change this year (TBD for next year and beyond), however the insiders think there's reason to think Chaundee Brown should get a waiver. We'll see.
The extended NBA draft deadline is also annoying. I still link Livers should and will return, but that's still uncertain.
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Apparently the sit-out rule isn't going to change this year (TBD for next year and beyond), however the insiders think there's reason to think Chaundee Brown should get a waiver. We'll see.
The extended NBA draft deadline is also annoying. I still link Livers should and will return, but that's still uncertain.
I think they sometimes give it for kids when the coach gets canned?
If he's eligible, he answers my questions about their backcourt depth. Not a great shooter but seems like a solid option.
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I heard that the NCAA is going to make Micah Potter sit out this year, because.
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UW got in late on a big four-star shooting guard who I was intrigued by, but then came an offer from Harvard and he's Ivy league bound.
When a kid is smart enough to get into Harvard and realize going to an Ivy is probably more important than playing high-major basketball, you just tip your hat to him.
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UW got in late on a big four-star shooting guard who I was intrigued by, but then came an offer from Harvard and he's Ivy league bound.
When a kid is smart enough to get into Harvard and realize going to an Ivy is probably more important than playing high-major basketball, you just tip your hat to him.
Cassius Winston did alright for himself
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Cassius Winston did alright for himself
Yep. He decided playing high major BB was more important than going to an Ivy league school. Good for him.
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For the Michigan fans... Has Nojel Eastern actually completed his transfer? The silence since the announcement seems strange.
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No news that I've heard. Livers is also still considering go pro, but there's no reason to think he should.
Michigan is in contention for Efton Reid who is currently a 2021 recruit but could graduate this summer. He's a center, though.
As an aside, I find it funny that Spike Albrecht got a job as a graduate assistant with Louisville of all places....
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For the Michigan fans... Has Nojel Eastern actually completed his transfer? The silence since the announcement seems strange.
He announced today he wasn't admitted
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So, DJ Carton got a waiver to play for Marquette this season.
Micah Potter wonders what he did wrong.
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He announced today he wasn't admitted
He said credits wouldn't transfer due to his major.
Purdue's roster for last year say his major was "selling and sales management", which isn't something that to me wouldn't transfer.
That makes no sense whatsoever.
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The General Studies major wouldn't work? Heh.
Might not have had the grades.
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Michigan has rarely taken transfers in the past, except graduate transfers. A lot of credits just don't transfer.
No update on Chaundee Brown's eligibility yet, either.
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Transfers are always weird. I lost a ton of credits transferring from IU to MSU. MSU had some transfer OL a couple years back not get admitted for similar reasons.
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Michigan has rarely taken transfers in the past, except graduate transfers. A lot of credits just don't transfer.
No update on Chaundee Brown's eligibility yet, either.
And quarterback?
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And quarterback?
Purdue doesn't have Ole Miss' academic reputation
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Purdue is thankful.
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Purdue is thankful.
Eh, there are plusses and minuses
West Lafayette doesn't have as much talent as you'll find in the Grove
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Ain't no Astronauts in the Grove.
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Ain't no Astronauts in the Grove.
Ole Miss' hasn't figured out how to land a spaceship on green cheese, that's why.
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and they never will
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I wonder if Freddy has contacted Eastern yet??
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Gotta be something wrong with this kid.
https://twitter.com/RobinWashut/status/1274010172139212800 (https://twitter.com/RobinWashut/status/1274010172139212800)
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Gotta be something wrong with this kid.
https://twitter.com/RobinWashut/status/1274010172139212800 (https://twitter.com/RobinWashut/status/1274010172139212800)
Yeah, that's not great.
I hope whatever his next step is puts him on a good track as a human.
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good luck to the young man
might need more than luck
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On a day when it was made known the Huskers would be without one expected arrival, news came that someone else is on the way.
Elijah Wood made public his commitment to Nebraska on Friday afternoon, reclassifying up to the 2020 recruiting class to join Fred Hoiberg's program immediately. The 6-foot-5 guard spent last year playing at Berkmar High School in Lilburn, Georgia. He helped his team reach the Georgia High School Associate Elite 8 while there. The year before he had attended Bethesda-Chevy Chase in Maryland, gaining recruiting traction along the way.
He had once been committed to Tulane, and later Rhode Island, but decommitted from the Rams at the end of April. “I’ve never cared about public opinions on my path because it’s always been unique,” he wrote at the time. “I see the bigger picture and never worried about my timing because I know the light is coming at the end of the tunnel.”
Indeed, he'd have plenty of options to consider.
Just two days after that change of plans, on May 1, the Huskers extended an offer to him as a 2021 recruit. Wood had at one point been planning to spend a year playing Hargrave (Va.) Military Academy. He had received offers along his recruitment from not just Nebraska, but also Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Auburn, Georgia, TCU, Florida, Kansas State and Ole Miss, among others.
With Wood joining the Huskers, the program now has again filled its allotment of 13 scholarships. The announcement of his addition came on the same day that Hoiberg issued a statement saying former Wisconsin standout Kobe King would not longer be attending Nebraska for "personal reasons."
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So King got Creaned?
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So King got Creaned?
Eric on the other board seemed to imply no. Unless there was some worry about a waiver, why would you cut a guy with Big Ten starting experience?
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Lincoln – The Nebraska basketball program added another backcourt performer on Wednesday, as Head Coach Fred Hoiberg announced the signing of Elijah Wood for the upcoming season. Wood, a 6-foot-6, 180-pound guard from Potomac, Md., has reclassified from the class of 2021, where he was going to attend Hargrave Military Academy.
"Elijah is a versatile guard who can play several spots in our system," Nebraska Coach Fred Hoiberg said. "He has the offensive skillset to create his own shot and the athletic ability to finish at the rim. He also will help us defensively, as he possesses the length and size to guard multiple positions."
Wood was ranked among the top-150 players in the country by both Rivals and 247 Sports and a four-star recruit by both websites in the spring of 2019, but fell out of the rankings after not playing AAU basketball after his junior year. He spent his senior year at Berkmar (Ga.) High School, helping Coach Greg Phillips' squad to a 18-10 record and a Class AAAAAAA quarterfinals appearance.
Wood, who originally signed with Rhode Island in the fall of 2019, played his sophomore and junior seasons at Bethesda-Chevy Chase High School. As a junior, he averaged 11 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.8 blocks per game. Wood reached double figures in 12 of 19 contests and dished out five or more assists eight times as a junior. During his sophomore year, he moved into the lineup and averaged 11.5 points, 5.3 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game. His season was highlighted by a 10-point, 11-assist double-double vs. Northwest.
Wood, who chose Nebraska over schools such as Florida, Mississippi, Providence and TCU among others, played AAU basketball with Team Thrill.
Wood joins a recruiting class which includes grad transfer Kobe Webster (Western Illinois), transfers Trey McGowens (Pittsburgh) and Trevor Lakes (University of Indianapolis), junior college transfers Teddy Allen (Western Nebraska CC) and Lat Mayen (Chipola College) and freshman Eduardo Andre.
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This is for 2022, but MSU just got the commitment of Emoni Bates, the #1 recruit in 2022.
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This is for 2022, but MSU just got the commitment of Emoni Bates, the #1 recruit in 2022.
Basically contingent on either reclassifying, or the NBA not getting rid of the one and done. If the next CBA eliminates it, and he stays 2022, no way he ever plays a game in college. It was always seen as all-MSU, but apparently his dad and Juwan Howard have been friends forever. Juwan had a kid transfer to go play with him in HS too. BIg get, but I still say better odds than not that he never plays college
https://twitter.com/JustinThind/status/1277660812258181120?s=20
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Yeah, if he can go pro directly, I'm sure he will.
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big get is an understatement. I don’t even follow hs b-ball or college b-ball and I know who this kid is.
The problem with college basketball is there is zero development and most of the 5* recruits honestly just wind up not being that good. I feel like it’s rare that a #1 overall kid is actually even that good in college or the pros these days.
Emoni Bates is the #1 hs player in any class, and he’d be the #1 pick in the next NBA draft if he was available to be drafted. A lot of people are saying he’s the best HS prospect since LeBron and is very similar to Kevin Durant.
I’ve seen him play on tv, and he looks absolutely fantastic. He needs a lot of physical development and to pack on muscle, but what 15-16 year old kid doesn’t lol- he’s not even a jr in high school yet.
If he goes to MSU as even a 1 and done he will get them to a final 4 imo.
I tend to think the NBA will get rid of the 1 and done rule though in the new CBA and allow draft prospects to come right out of HS like before and that Bates will be the #1 overall pick in 2022.
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The problem with college basketball is there is zero development and most of the 5* recruits honestly just wind up not being that good. I feel like it’s rare that a #1 overall kid is actually even that good in college or the pros these days.
I think one and dones are hard to deal with in general...
No matter how much talent you have, it means you need to get on campus, learn the coach's scheme, learn your defensive assignments/rotations, etc. Unless you're highly mature and intelligent, incorporating all that quickly enough to mentally be ready for the season is REALLY tough as a true freshman.
If you know you're going to be in the NBA after the season, it also gives you less motivation to really work on trying to be perfect for your college teammates too.
For Purdue, we don't really get one-and-done kids. But our highest ranked recruit, Caleb Swanigan, was a 5* and ranked #19 in the country by 247 as a recruit. He was an All-American and went into the NBA--after his SOPHOMORE season.
His freshman season he was talented enough that you couldn't keep him off the floor but raw enough that he was a turnover machine, defensive liability, and generally helped the team but also hindered it. For every 2 steps forward, he took 1.5 steps back.
It wasn't until his sophomore season that he dominated.
A lot of one-and-dones are like that... The NBA knows their potential, so they're going to get drafted high regardless of what they do in college (look at Romeo Langford, for example--didn't do much and did it on a bad team, still drafted high). But they don't always help their TEAM win during that one year in college.
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Yeah, Kentucky and Duke have loaded up on them, and just have SO MUCH more NBA talent than everyone, they can sort of get by. But for everyone else, it almost seems to be a detriment. You look at the guys who have gone somewhere to be the absolute star, like Ben Simmons at LSU, or Anthony Edwards at Georgia, or Trey Young at Oklahoma, or Markelle Fultz at Washington, and it has been a total disaster. I think except for that Trey Young team (who only barely got in), none of those teams even made the tourney.
Give me an upperclassman PG, and get 2-3 NBA caliber players around him, but aren't lottery, and I'll take that every day
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Yeah, Kentucky and Duke have loaded up on them, and just have SO MUCH more NBA talent than everyone, they can sort of get by. But for everyone else, it almost seems to be a detriment. You look at the guys who have gone somewhere to be the absolute star, like Ben Simmons at LSU, or Anthony Edwards at Georgia, or Trey Young at Oklahoma, or Markelle Fultz at Washington, and it has been a total disaster. I think except for that Trey Young team (who only barely got in), none of those teams even made the tourney.
Give me an upperclassman PG, and get 2-3 NBA caliber players around him, but aren't lottery, and I'll take that every day
Bates is one of the rare breeds of one and dones who could take a team to the final 4.
He’s sooooo much more advanced than all those guys you just listed. His basketball iq and basketball skills and scoring skills are off the charts already. He’s like another LeBron imo. But with a way better outside and mid-range shot. That’s scary.
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Not B1G but five star forward Makur Maker commits to Howard. Kinda cool, hopefully he actually plays there.
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Sat down to watch the TBT and am patiently waiting for the cornhole match to end. #CovidSports
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Sat down to watch the TBT and am patiently waiting for the cornhole match to end. #CovidSports
I've never watched more on Sunday, non major PGA.
There's a guy named Seamus Power in 4th, so I'm on board for that.
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Big X looks like they just formed up in the parking lot and decided to give it a go
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Well, Nick Ward looks like he took his conditioning seriously
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Well, Nick Ward looks like he took his conditioning seriously
Dude's in beast mode.
Now time to watch some Elam ending.
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Dude's in beast mode.
Now time to watch some Elam ending.
I'm definitely trying to watch this Elam ending. It is a different kind of game ending stress
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Looks like Max Christie to MSU is close. Kobe Bufkin probably wishing he had jumped sooner
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Looks like Max Christie to MSU is close. Kobe Bufkin probably wishing he had jumped sooner
UW would have liked to get him, but they dropped out a while back. Not sure why, but it might have something to do with Howard Moore not being involved anymore??
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Michigan has two decent commits for 2021 now in Isaiah Barnes and Will Tschetter.... It's encouraging to see that Howard is focusing on 100-200 level recruits now, especially since Michigan will have at least 3 more openings.... Even in the scenario that college basketball is cancelled next year, only Eli Brooks would probably consider returning (Austin Davis and Mike Smith could hypothetically get 6th years, but I don't see that happening and/or them being interested but I could be wrong, of course), and that's before considering Chaundee Brown could be eligible this year, too.... Not to mention that Franz Wagner could go pro after next year, too, regardless, but time will tell... Either way, Michigan will probably get another grad transfer or two for 2021-2022, but there's plenty of time to figure that out, of course.
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Looks like Max Christie to MSU is close. Kobe Bufkin probably wishing he had jumped sooner
Committed to MSU over Duke and Villanova. MSU hasn't typically gone into Chicago, although Rolling Meadows isn't actually Chicago. Off the top of my head, Shannon Brown back in 2003 was the last one.
Hopefully they can get in state Jaden Akins and call it a day.
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Who knew the sim titles would pay off
https://twitter.com/B1Gsad/status/1280583509460029440?s=19
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Who knew the sim titles would pay off
https://twitter.com/B1Gsad/status/1280583509460029440?s=19
Didn't we win one of those? Hang a banner
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In the TBT we get the Ohio State team verses the Illinois plus Mike Daum team. Tomorrow at 4pm
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Who's ready to watch some Aaron Craft
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Mike Daum wore OSU out the when they played in the tourney a couple years ago
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Diebler...still got it
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Carmen was down 11 but went on a 24-8 run to go into halftime up 5
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Heartbreak in Columbus as the Carmen Crew go down
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Sounds like Xavier Tillman is returning for his senior year
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Livers returning for his senior year
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If there's a season (which I'm increasingly skeptical), Michigan should be pretty good. Not sure why it took Livers so long to decide to return, which is the smart move since he wasn't even projected to get drafted in the second round, but I'm glad that's decided. The only unknown left is if Chaundee Brown is immediately eligible, but it sounds like he will be.
Non-con games are the ACC Challenge (still TBD presumably due to the pandemic), UCF, @ Oregon, 2 neutral site games in NYC (Villanova, Baylor, NC State), and guarantee games vs Georgia State, Southern Utah, Oakland, Ball State, CS Northridge, and 1 TBD.
Mike Smith will get minutes at PG, be it as the starter or backup. Eli Brooks will play both guard spots and start at one of them. Zeb Jackson will presumably get some minutes behind them, but the question is if/how often Michigan goes bigger.... At worst, Adrien Nunez could play, but he'll probably be relegated to the bench this year (or maybe he takes a redshirt to grad-transfer elsewhere after next year).
Franz Wagner and Chaundee Brown presumably split time at SF. How much either of them can/will play at SG remains to be seen. Livers will be the primary PF, of course, and Brandon Johns will presumably back him up. Time will tell if Terrance Williams and/or Jace Howard get much time at either spot behind them.
Austin Davis will probably start the season as the top center, and time will if Hunter Dickinson can challenge him this year or just get backup minutes.
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If there's a season (which I'm increasingly skeptical), Michigan should be pretty good. Not sure why it took Livers so long to decide to return, which is the smart move since he wasn't even projected to get drafted in the second round, but I'm glad that's decided.
I think he just wanted an evaluation. Now that it's clear the NBA evaluations won't happen until after the early entrant deadline, he came back.
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Top Ohio recruit Malaki Branham commits to the buckeyes. Can't remember if we have a basketball recruiting thread
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https://twitter.com/umhoops/status/1287036846346629120?s=19
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2022 5* C Enoch Boakye from Canada commits to MSU over UCLA, Arizona and BYU. Rumors he is looking to reclassify to 2021 along with Emoni Bates, which would give MSU three top 20 recruits in the 2021 class.
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https://twitter.com/umhoops/status/1287036846346629120?s=19
That is ... a lot, even by UW standards.
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Brad Davison probably took half of them. Heh.
And he was a QB in HS. Did you know that?
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I knew that
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Minnesota's Marcus Carr withdrawing from the Draft and returning to school
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Wow, very much did not expect this
https://twitter.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/1289371145272094720?s=19
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Needless to say that I am thrilled Ayo is back. Kofi should be back too and they could be a really nice team with the pieces they added. Please let there be a season.
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Tillman staying in Draft, Henry returning.
Makes sense
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Garza returning for his SR season. I think this puts Iowa firmly in the top 10 even if he doesn't match what he did last year.
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As long as they figure out how to play a smidgen of defense, I'd say they have to be the preseason conference favorites.
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As long as they figure out how to play a smidgen of defense, I'd say they have to be the preseason conference favorites.
Yeah, not sure if that is even possible with this coaching staff. Still with all the scoring options they will have, not sure if they will need much defense.
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Michigan State basketball has filled its final scholarship from within, awarding it to redshirt junior Jack Hoiberg, the program announced Tuesday. The move was made possible by Xavier Tillman’s decision to remain in the NBA Draft, and it puts MSU back at the 13-scholarship limit for next season.
“I knew with Xavier (Tillman) leaving, there was a spot open, but you never really know if there’s a chance or maybe what the coaches were thinking,” Hoiberg said in a press release. “I had spoken to Coach about it in the past, but again, you never really know. It was really cool when he told me.”
The son of Nebraska head coach Fred Hoiberg, Jack Hoiberg joined MSU as a walk-on out of Hinsdale (Illinois) Central in 2017. The 5-foot-11, 175-pound guard has appeared in 28 career games, totaling 59 minutes.
Jack Hoiberg registered his only career start when MSU traveled to Nebraska last February, a gesture from Tom Izzo to Fred Hoiberg, who have become friends in recent years. The younger Hoiberg turned in four points, two assists and a rebound in the Spartans’ 86-65 win over his dad’s team.
“This was not given, he earned this,” Izzo said in a press release. “He has been unbelievable since he came here. Jack didn’t just have this given to him. He has worked so hard and he deserves it.”
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He was more consistent than Foster Loyer last year. Not much of an offensive threat, but he was competent when needed, and could play serviceable defense, whereas Loyer was an absolute liability on that side of the floor.
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I wish he was earning a ship in Lincoln
I understand playing for your old man could be rough, for both
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I wish he was earning a ship in Lincoln
I understand playing for your old man could be rough, for both
Unless you are in Iowa City, seems the thing to do there
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the coach in Iowa City seems calm and cool and easy to play for..... :57:
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Stockholm Syndrome
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the coach in Iowa City seems calm and cool and easy to play for..... :57:
Always under control. Steady Eddy.
I've seen him referred to as Frantrum. Kinda funny.
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(https://i.imgur.com/lvmrjVf.png)
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the coach in Iowa City seems calm and cool and easy to play for..... :57:
One of these times we're going to see him seize up or stroke out on the sidelines. I don't care if it's an act, that's not healthy behavior
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hoops version of Bo Pelini
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Recruiting train keeps rolling. MSU lands their top in state target in PG Jalen Terry
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Basically contingent on either reclassifying, or the NBA not getting rid of the one and done. If the next CBA eliminates it, and he stays 2022, no way he ever plays a game in college. It was always seen as all-MSU, but apparently his dad and Juwan Howard have been friends forever. Juwan had a kid transfer to go play with him in HS too. BIg get, but I still say better odds than not that he never plays college
https://twitter.com/JustinThind/status/1277660812258181120?s=20
Even if he never plays, free PR doesn't hurt
https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1299408759157125121?s=20
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https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1303695772530151428?s=20
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https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1303695772530151428?s=20
Someone spitballs thing that will not happen
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Someone spitballs thing that will not happen
Or the new Wake Forest coach is carrying a big stick.
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https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1303695772530151428?s=20
Wait... This wasn't satire? :smiley_confused1:
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Wait... This wasn't satire? :smiley_confused1:
Coaches have ideas. Weird ones.
One funny part is people who can't do math making jokes about how it would take so long. Thanks to powers of two, you'd add one weekend, plus one round of play-in games.
It's also a bad and stupid idea, but thankfully, it won't happen.
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By means of conference tournaments, nearly every team is already in.
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By means of conference tournaments, nearly every team is already in.
I wonder if letting everyone in just means punting on conference tournaments? It would have to. You couldn't design a thing more redundant.
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I wonder if letting everyone in just means punting on conference tournaments? It would have to. You couldn't design a thing more redundant.
It already is for the "locks", no?
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It already is for the "locks", no?
It is. But "locks" account for maybe 10 percent of the teams in the sport.
If the other 90 percent were also locks, you're just playing for an extra trophy, which is nice and all, but notably more redundant.
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https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1305880436195942405?s=20
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Harrison Ingram (5* PF) announces today at 4 PM ET. Rumor is it's down to Purdue, Stanford, and Michigan.
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Nebraska is set to host a college basketball bubble with several power five teams involved, according to a CBS report.
According to CBSSports’ Jon Rothstein, Nebraska will not participate in the Myrtle Beach Invitational bubble in Orlando, and will instead host its own bubble the first week of the season. The NCAA basketball season is slated to begin Nov. 25.
“Several power conference teams are expected to be included,” according to Rothstein’s tweet.
Nebraska had been slated to play in the Myrtle Beach Invitational in South Carolina, but Covid-19 scrapped those plans, with ESPN looking to host its events in a bubble in Orlando instead.
Lincoln would make for an ideal location for a bubble -- the University is slated to stop instruction at Thanksgiving, meaning that Lincoln would be quieter than normal. In the recently released Big Ten Football schedule, the Husker football team is slated to be on the road at Iowa the weekend of Nov. 28 meaning there would be plenty of hotels available as well.
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that would be fun seeing it in Lincoln
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the Hotels could use the business
I'm meeting my brother in Lincoln to watch football and help the local businesses this weekend
we're staying at the Graduate and will be at Buzzard Billy's Friday evening
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Harrison Ingram (5* PF) announces today at 4 PM ET. Rumor is it's down to Purdue, Stanford, and Michigan.
I didn't follow up. Ingram did something I'm not sure I've ever seen.
I've seen players talk about how important academics are and how they want to get a computer science degree, narrowing down between Purdue, the Illini, and Oregon, and somehow ending up playing for the Ducks.
But Ingram said that academics were really important to him, and instead of going to someplace like Kentucky, actually chose Stanford.
Hell, I can't even be mad that we missed out on him. If he actually isn't a 1-and-done or 2-and-done, and maybe gets a degree, then good for him.
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Nebraska basketball picked up a big 2021 commitment on Thursday as Mater Dei (Calif.) big man Wilhelm Breidenbach committed to the Big Red.
The 6-foot-9, 200-pound Breidenbach officially visited Nebraska last fall and chose the Big Red over offers from Cal, USC and Vanderbilt and interest from West Coast powers like Arizona.
Breidenbach, who can shoot from the outside, as well as play inside told 247Sports that he felt he was a good fit in Fred Hoiberg’s offense.
Breidenbach is ranked as the No. 92 overall prospect in the country according to the industry-generated 247Sports Composite, making him the No. 17 center in the country and the No. 6 player in the state of California.
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Trey McGowens has received an NCAA waiver to play immediately this season at Nebraska. The transfer from Pittsburgh was considered a major addition to Fred Hoiberg's program. The hope was just that he wouldn't have to sit out. He won't.
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Of course he got a waiver.
As a part of the deal, the NCAA will make UW's Micah Potter sit out this year.
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I didn't follow up. Ingram did something I'm not sure I've ever seen.
I've seen players talk about how important academics are and how they want to get a computer science degree, narrowing down between Purdue, the Illini, and Oregon, and somehow ending up playing for the Ducks.
But Ingram said that academics were really important to him, and instead of going to someplace like Kentucky, actually chose Stanford.
Hell, I can't even be mad that we missed out on him. If he actually isn't a 1-and-done or 2-and-done, and maybe gets a degree, then good for him.
I'm never going to begrudge a kid for choosing Stanford. Probably anyone here would loved to have gone there. I know I would.
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Trey McGowens has received an NCAA waiver to play immediately this season at Nebraska. The transfer from Pittsburgh was considered a major addition to Fred Hoiberg's program. The hope was just that he wouldn't have to sit out. He won't.
Probably helps with this too
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/30070468/sources-brycemcgowens-decommits-florida-state
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Let's see what the Mayor can do..........
I'm crossing my fingers
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Wisconsin’s incoming maybe point guard, maybe combo guard took a leave of absence a little bit ago to go Home for some personal reasons. There are some rumblings he might not return to the team, which would be unfortunate.
The hope was it is that he can be a bridge guard of sorts as they sit to enter this year with two senior starters. Hopefully the rumblings are just rumors.
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Bryce McGowens has emerged as one of the biggest names to show interest in Nebraska basketball since Fred Hoiberg took over as the head coach in 2019, and on Monday he solidified those thoughts by including the Huskers in his Top 5 he released on Twitter.
Nebraska was joined by Florida State — where McGowens had been committed until an early October change — as well as Georgia, LSU and Michigan.
He decommitted from the Seminoles on October 8th and has fielded a great deal of interest since that time.
Chase Clemmons, a cousin of McGowens and a rising 2023 guard, said Trey has been talking about getting the whole group together in Lincoln.
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Pat Chambers resigns
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ACC/B1G challenge getting schedules at least, for Dec. 8th and 9th. Buckeyes to play Notre Dame unofficially
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UM gets a commit from the #9 overall recruit in the 2021 class. Their highest rated commit in the 247 era
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Some OSU news:
OSU was supposed to open with Memphis in the Battle for Atlantis, which got moved to South Dakota and became the crossover classic. But OSU pulled out of the game because of the high COVID rates there and related quarantine rules.
Transfer Abel Porter has medically retired due to a heart condition. However, transfer Jimmy Sotos was approved to play, so he's the new backup PG.
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UW was supposed to play in Fort Myers this month.
We had intended to get tickets. Oh well.
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Wichita State expected to dump Gregg Marshall for being a giant turd, rumor is they would hire Thad Matta
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University of Nebraska men's basketball coach Fred Hoiberg announced Wednesday that Keisei Tominaga (pronounced Kee-sea Toe-may-nawga) has signed a National-Letter-of-Intent with the Husker program.
Tominaga, a 6-foot-2, 176-pound guard, is currently a sophomore at Ranger (Texas) College, which will begin its season in January of 2021. One of the top shooters in junior college basketball, he finished in the top-20 nationally in both 3-point percentage (47.9 percent) and 3-pointers per game (3.4 per game) in 2019-20.
"Keisei is one of the more unique signees in program history, and we are excited to add him to our team," Hoiberg said of the first Japanese player to sign with Nebraska men's basketball. "He's nicknamed 'the Japanese Steph Curry' and is truly an elite 3-point shooter with unlimited range and a quick release. Keisei will make an immediate impact not only with his shooting, but also in floor spacing, as it will help us create driving lanes for others."
Keisei comes from a basketball family, as his father, Hiroyuki, was a center on the Japan national team and played in the 1998 FIBA World Championship and played professionally in Japan for a decade.
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Wichita State expected to dump Gregg Marshall for being a giant turd, rumor is they would hire Thad Matta
Marta's name popped up with Georgia and Wake Forest over the past couple years. I think he just makes sure his name is involved so OSU has to keep paying him.
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Marta's name popped up with Georgia and Wake Forest over the past couple years. I think he just makes sure his name is involved so OSU has to keep paying him.
That probably was the case, though I think that ended in June
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University of Nebraska men's basketball coach Fred Hoiberg announced Wednesday that Wilhelm Breidenbach has signed a National-Letter-of-Intent with the Husker program.
A 6-foot-9, 210-pound forward from Santa Ana, Calif., Breidenbach plays for national power Mater Dei High School for legendary Coach Gary McKnight, who has won more than 1,150 games in his 38 years of coaching at the school.
Breidenbach is ranked No. 53 nationally by ESPN in the class of 2021, matching highest-ranked recruit the Huskers have signed coming out of high school dating back to 2007. He is also ranked No. 90 in the 247Sports Composite, which combines all of the major national recruiting services rankings.
The No. 10 center nationally by ESPN, he averaged 11.9 points and 8.0 rebounds per game in 2019-20, as Mater Dei went 25-8 and reached the CIF Open Division Regional semifinals.
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Purdue's Eric Hunter Jr. broke his tibia. Out 6 to 8 weeks.
Also, Ethan Morton (freshman guard) has Mono and will need a few more weeks to get back to game level.
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Purdue's Eric Hunter Jr. broke his tibia. Out 6 to 8 weeks.
Also, Ethan Morton (freshman guard) has Mono and will need a few more weeks to get back to game level.
Remember when people have a crap about mono?
Lace em up Lucy!
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Bryce McGowens, the No. 25 overall prospect in the 2021 247Sports Composite Rankings, has committed to Nebraska, he tells 247Sports.
The 6-foot-6 and 175-pound shooting guard out of Greenville (S.C.) Legacy Charter chose the Cornhuskers over his other finalist, Georgia.
McGowens becomes Nebraska's highest ranked recruit in the online recruiting service history, surpassing 2015 prospect Glynn Watson.
He is now their third commitment in the 2021 class and moves them up to the No. 24 overall class in the country.
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Basketball is coming! I hope! OSU says they are playing Illinois State on November 25th. That's nine days!
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Apparently the entire NCAA tourney will be in Indy.
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good for Indy
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Apparently the entire NCAA tourney will be in Indy.
This plan is outstanding
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if you live in Indy
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I hope they do expand their minds for venues. Beyond the four obvious ones. Some really cool and large HS venues in the area. Too bad the Wigwam isn't in playing shape.
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I think you do 8 pods of 8, with the 8 winners advancing to the Elite 8.
Not exactly traditional, but it only requires reshuffling once.
Good luck seeding teams with basically no OOC games
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I'm predicting they half or third Lucas Oil, and use the connecting Convention center for other courts. Won't be as interesting as sending some of the early rounds to Hinkle or Indiana Coliseum at State Fair Park, but makes it simple to organize and control team/player movements. Like a big damn club volleyball tournament.
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We have some openings (mid-draft) in our free fantasy college hoops league if anyone here is interested
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I think you do 8 pods of 8, with the 8 winners advancing to the Elite 8.
Not exactly traditional, but it only requires reshuffling once.
Good luck seeding teams with basically no OOC games
I like the idea of pods of 8.
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Not sure if we covered any Purdue recruiting news.
For 2021, Purdue hit on two top targets in Caleb Furst and Trey Kaufman. They're two of the Painter's highest-ranked recruits, so it's a pretty huge get. Both are "bigs", but one is more in a forward/center mold while the other is more of a wing/forward type player. There was some question of whether they'd avoid playing for the same school because they're close enough to the same position, but I think Painter was able to convince both that they had unique attributes allowing them to see the floor together, not compete for time.
For 2022, we just picked up Fletcher Loyer (brother of MSU's Foster Loyer), a shooting guard. He's not super-high rated (I think top 150), but it's in line with Painter's desire to pick up a deadeye shooter in every class. Size-wise he's closer to Ryan Cline, so he's got some height to see (and launch) over defenders.
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Not sure if we covered any Purdue recruiting news.
For 2021, Purdue hit on two top targets in Caleb Furst and Trey Kaufman. They're two of the Painter's highest-ranked recruits, so it's a pretty huge get. Both are "bigs", but one is more in a forward/center mold while the other is more of a wing/forward type player. There was some question of whether they'd avoid playing for the same school because they're close enough to the same position, but I think Painter was able to convince both that they had unique attributes allowing them to see the floor together, not compete for time.
Eh, if any school has proven, even in the modern game, they have figured out how to work multiple bigs together, it's Purdue. Not sure there should be any hesitation there on the part of recruits.
As for Loyer. IIRC, his brother is the state's all-time leader in both FT% and 3 pointers, and maybe like #2 in scoring? He has been unable (aside from one random BTT game against OSU where I think he scored 12 points on 4-5 from 3) to overcome his size. I think this kid is taller, but I don't think a single MSU fan was disappointed they didn't offer him. Maybe the height makes up for the slighty worse shooting numbers.
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Purdue opens tomorrow with Liberty.
Purdue has no seniors on the team this year. Not even a random walk-on. With Matt Haarms and Nojel Eastern now being at BYU and Howard, respectively, we have only 11 scholarship recruits on the roster.
Eric Hunter is out 6-8 weeks due to a leg injury. Mason Gillis is recovering from mono. Emmanuel Dowuona has apparently been dealing with breathing issues (cause hasn't been disclosed, but some think it was a summertime case of COVID that he's taking longer to recover from).
Which means we've got an 8-man rotation going into tomorrow's game.
Key returnees (leaving off Hunter due to injury and Dow because we have never seen enough of him to know what he can do):
Trevion Wiliams - Center: Everyone knows him by now. Widebody in the post, tremendous rebounder and really solid post scorer and passer. A little short for a center, but makes up for it by it being nearly physically impossible to move him off the block.
Aaron Wheeler - Forward: He had a disappointing RS Jr year last year, but he's got all the physical attributes. He's 6'9" and can leap out of the gym. Has a good shooting stroke from deep [although his 3pt shooting was terrible last year, it was good his RS Fr year]. Limits are a not very good handle and so far hasn't really showed consistent use of his athleticism to get to the rim. Plays a little timid at times.
Sasha Stevanovich - Shooting Guard: Deadeye shooter with one of the quickest releases I've ever seen. Able to shoot on the move and come of screens. Surprisingly tenacious defender.
Isaiah Thompson - Point Guard: Brother of PJ Thompson, but taller and more athletic. Held down the position well last year as a freshman, and hoping his growth continues.
Coming off redshirt:
Mason Gillis - Forward: Seems to be a forward in the Vince Edwards mold. Was a very solid recruit until injury took away most of his Jr and Sr years of basketball in HS, and thus he just wasn't ready to contribute last year. That he's now dealing with mono isn't a great sign, but he'd be expected to push Wheeler at the 4.
Brandon Newman - Combo guard: Pure scorer; redshirted because he wasn't ready defensively. Expected to start tomorrow, at the very least while Hunter is injured. He was a pretty solid pickup on the recruiting trail, so while we were all a bit disappointed that he even had to redshirt, hopefully the time spent developing his defense will be worth it.
Key incoming true freshmen:
Jaden Ivey - Guard: Son of current Notre Dame NCAAW head coach Niele Ivey, and we all know how Painter loves "coach's kids". Expected to contribute from day 1. Shot up the recruiting rankings AFTER his commitment to Purdue. Strong scorer, and known as eminently coachable and a team player.
Ethan Morton - Guard: A 6'6" point guard, with some of the best passing skills potentially ever. Painter once described Dakota Mathias as one of the best passer's he'd ever seen, and he's said that Morton might compare favorably to Dakota. Very much a jack-of-all-trades player, not selfish with the basketball but can score just fine on his own. Expected to be a regular contributor from day 1 as well.
Zach Edey - Center: Currently listed at 7'4" (!), was largely unknown a few years ago. Loved playing hockey and baseball, but just kept growing, and growing, and growing, to become too tall for those sports. So he's only played basketball a few years now. He played at IMG last season, and apparently the guy everyone thought was a project is looking like he's going to contribute early. He'll back up Trevion, and maybe won't really PUSH Tre for minutes, but if he can just contribute spot minutes when Tre is gassed it will be huge for the team.
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As for Loyer. IIRC, his brother is the state's all-time leader in both FT% and 3 pointers, and maybe like #2 in scoring? He has been unable (aside from one random BTT game against OSU where I think he scored 12 points on 4-5 from 3) to overcome his size. I think this kid is taller, but I don't think a single MSU fan was disappointed they didn't offer him. Maybe the height makes up for the slighty worse shooting numbers.
Did Foster play much? I was reading his role the past couple years was Winston's backup... Looking at stats, it seems his and Cassius' minutes split add up to almost exactly 40. I wonder if he just had bigger competition at the other guard positions and so he was the PG backup instead?
A lot of us were surprised that MSU didn't offer. Michigan, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Utah, and Mizzou rounded out his final 6 along with Purdue. So it's not like he's some unknown that didn't have any good offers.
I'm wondering if it was just flat out known up front that he wasn't interested in MSU. Maybe he is the type that just doesn't want to be known in the program as Foster Loyer's little [taller] brother.
Of course it's also possible that MSU just has their eyes on bigger targets.
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Did Foster play much? I was reading his role the past couple years was Winston's backup... Looking at stats, it seems his and Cassius' minutes split add up to almost exactly 40. I wonder if he just had bigger competition at the other guard positions and so he was the PG backup instead?
A lot of us were surprised that MSU didn't offer. Michigan, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Utah, and Mizzou rounded out his final 6 along with Purdue. So it's not like he's some unknown that didn't have any good offers.
I'm wondering if it was just flat out known up front that he wasn't interested in MSU. Maybe he is the type that just doesn't want to be known in the program as Foster Loyer's little [taller] brother.
Of course it's also possible that MSU just has their eyes on bigger targets.
He couldn't stay on the court. He shot the ball well enough, but if you pressured him, he panicked, turned it over, and defensively he was awful. I thought (particularly as Watts improved late in the season), they should have tried to buy him more minutes off ball when Watts was on the court. Winston was a subpar defender, so you couldn't play them together, but Watts was bigger, and a better defender, so you could afford to.
Izzo tried to sneak him in when there was a stoppage close to a TV timeout, to give him a minute or two, and work that into the TV timeout to give Winston a longer rest. And there were times it went so poorly MSU had to call a timeout because they couldn't afford to wait any longer. I know the game against Northwestern immediately comes to mind, and there were at least a handful of others. The Northwestern game, he came in, missed a 3, had a turnover, and allowed his man to score on 4 straight possessions, and the lead went from like 16 to 5 in like 90 seconds, and MSU had to call a timeout to get him out
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Schedule today
McNeese at Nebraska, Noon, BTN
NC A&T at Illinois, 2 pm, BTN
Illinois St. at OSU, 2 pm, ESPN
Old Dominion at MAryland, 2 pm
North Carolina Central at Iowa, 4 pm, BTN
Bowling Green at Michigam 4 pm, ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at MSU, 6 pm, BTN
Liberty at Purdue, 6 pm, CBSSN
Sacred Heart at Rutgers, 7 pm
Green Bay at Minnesota, 7 pm
Tennessee Tech at Indiana, 8 pm, BTN
Eastern Illinois at Wisconsin, 10 pm, BTN
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Schedule today
McNeese at Nebraska, Noon, BTN
NC A&T at Illinois, 2 pm, BTN
Illinois St. at OSU, 2 pm, ESPN
Old Dominion at MAryland, 2 pm
North Carolina Central at Iowa, 4 pm, BTN
Bowling Green at Michigam 4 pm, ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at MSU, 6 pm, BTN
Liberty at Purdue, 6 pm, CBSSN
Sacred Heart at Rutgers, 7 pm
Green Bay at Minnesota, 7 pm
Tennessee Tech at Indiana, 8 pm, BTN
Eastern Illinois at Wisconsin, 10 pm, BTN
This old man will not be watching anything but his eyelids by that time.
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OSU is going to have a lot different looking team this year. Kaleb Wesson has been the headliner for two years, and a ton of the offense ran through him. There is no one like him on the roster this year, so by default they should look a lot different, for better or for worse. Also gone is Andre Wesson, who provided a little bit of everything. DJ Carton and Luther Muhammad would have been big parts of the team, they are gone. So is Alonzo Gaffney. Who's left?
The starters
CJ Walker, PG: Played last year and was sort of ho hum until DJ Carton left the team, and he turned into a pretty good player. Having a veteran point guard is a good thing in the NCAA, and the question os whther he can keep up a strong level of play now that he is the guy, or just devolves into a league average guard.
Duane Washington, SG: A good scorer and shooter. Can he do anything else?
Justice Sueing, SF: A transfer from Cal who is eligible. Profiles as an athletic wing who likes to attack the basket. Questions are whether he can shoot threes and play defense. Should be a big part of the offense.
EJ Liddell, PF: A freshman last year, Liddell showed lots of flashes and plays with a lot of energy. He is strong in the post, but the question is whether he can play outside.
Kyle Young, C: Gets called the glue guy for no real reason. He's a good defender and rebounder, and traditionally has not shot the ball at all except to dunk. But the coaching staff keeps saying he can shoot threes. We shall see, the biggest issue with this team right now is that they have too many guys who want to be near the basket.
Reserves:
Seth Towns, SF: Transfer from Harvard who is not expected to play right away as he recovers from knee issues. Obviously, his health is a question mark. If he can play, he would be a big part of the team because he's a strong shooter and could open up the lane.
Musa Jallow, SG: Took a redshirt last year. Two years ago profiled as an athletic defender. Let's see if he can score.
Justin Ahrens, SG: Shoots threes and that's it.
Jimmy Sotos, PG: Transfer from Bucknell, was supposed to take a year off but through a round of craziness is now the backup PG.
Ibrahim Diallo, C: The only true center on the roster, it's now his third year in and you wonder if he will ever get on the court
Zed Key, PF: Freshman, though there does seem to be an expectation that he will get some minutes as a post guy who can score a bit.
Eugene Brown, SF: Freshman, haven't seen many takes that he will contribute this year
Meechie Johnson, PG: Freshman, won't immediately be part of the team. Reclassified so he could join the team this year, presumably to provide guard depth.
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This old man will not be watching anything but his eyelids by that time.
Seriously 10 pm tips should be illegal
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I don't get it. The people (EST) who want to watch won't, while the people (PST/MST) who can watch it also won't. There will be very few people in the CST who also won't watch but maybe the first half.
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9pm tip Central?
Have to be a good game to keep me from dozing off
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Have to fit them all on tv. IIRC there's no BTN overflow for basketball. 10PM on TV is better than 8PM and not
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I've got 3 big ten network channels on my IPTV lineup
this way I can watch the east division game and the west division game at the same time
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I've got 3 big ten network channels on my IPTV lineup
this way I can watch the east division game and the west division game at the same time
Yeah, for football. I don't think they use them for basketball
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WTF?
Hoops doesn't count??
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This is the first time in a long time Iowa fans have high expectations for the bball team. 2015-16 was a year that we didn't know how good they could be until the season started. This year could be one of the best years since Tom Davis roamed the court in the 80s/90s or could be the disappointing finish of 2015-16. Barring injuries (or 2020 terms, COVID), Garza doesn't have to do near as much as last year. I expect him to be somewhere around a 16/9 guy since he will have enough weapons on the outside. Still wouldn't be surprised that the three point shooters will make enough nervous Garza could easily average 25-30 again from the lack of the defenses collapsing. Should be a fun year.
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Ahrens and Key are the first off the bench
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Too early to get my hopes up....but this might be Pitino's deepest team. Given....they are playing Green Bay....but a 53-22 halftime lead is nothing to sneeze at.
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For all of the early season football weirdness, the favorites are all winning comfortably in hoops.
And I'm Mr. Traditional, but the new MSU uniforms are perfect
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He couldn't stay on the court. He shot the ball well enough, but if you pressured him, he panicked, turned it over, and defensively he was awful. I thought (particularly as Watts improved late in the season), they should have tried to buy him more minutes off ball when Watts was on the court. Winston was a subpar defender, so you couldn't play them together, but Watts was bigger, and a better defender, so you could afford to.
Izzo tried to sneak him in when there was a stoppage close to a TV timeout, to give him a minute or two, and work that into the TV timeout to give Winston a longer rest. And there were times it went so poorly MSU had to call a timeout because they couldn't afford to wait any longer. I know the game against Northwestern immediately comes to mind, and there were at least a handful of others. The Northwestern game, he came in, missed a 3, had a turnover, and allowed his man to score on 4 straight possessions, and the lead went from like 16 to 5 in like 90 seconds, and MSU had to call a timeout to get him out
He scored 20 tonight. Nobody is questioning his shooting. But unless he's playing mid major zone defenses, it doesn't translate
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Get decent matchup today. Nebraska v. Nevada and Clemson v. Purdue.
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Kenpom through 1 game.
8. Wisconsin
10. OSU
13. MSU
14. Iowa
16. Illinois
18. Michigan
24. Indiana
27. Purdue
28. Rutgers
29. Minnesota
47. Maryland
64. Penn State
69. Northwestern
109. Nebraska
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Nevada scouting report: Defense, defense, defense. Nevada played a lot of it in a 62-48 win over North Dakota State, holding the Bison to just 29.1% shooting from the floor. The Wolfpack has good size in its starting five, and its best scorer, long-term, may be freshman Tre Coleman, who came off the bench to score 13 points without missing a shot. Nevada is coached by Steve Alford, who generally had dynamic offenses at his last two stops, UCLA and New Mexico. The scoring punch may not quite be in place with this young team.
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Not quite enough for the Huskers
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tight contest to the end, but not on the winning side
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Illinois getting all they want from the mighty Bobcats
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Dosunmu is a bad man
-
Squeaked that one out....yeesh
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Zach Edey appears to be the real deal. 7'4" (the tallest player in Purdue history, as the TV announcers said several hundred times) and appears to be a mix of the best aspects of Isaac Haas and Matt Haarms. Moves really well for his size like Haarms (and unlike Haas), but isn't too willowy that he gets pushed around in the post (like Haas, unlike Haarms). And seems to rebound better than either.
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26-0 runs help
Granted Notre Dame is back to being a football school
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Izzo doing November Izzo things
https://twitter.com/JSWarno/status/1332881553433767943?s=19
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Buckeyes back on the court.
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Are the Buckeyes going to be playing all of their home games in the Covelli Center this year?
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Are the Buckeyes going to be playing all of their home games in the Covelli Center this year?
I was trying to figure out all he venues y'all have. What's supposed to be he home basketball arena?
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I was trying to figure out all he venues y'all have. What's supposed to be he home basketball arena?
The Schottenstein Center or Value City Arena.
St John's is the old basketball arena.
The Covelli is new, and is primarily for Wrestling, Volleyball and Gymnastics.
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Not a scintillating display of basketball there. Couldn't shoot or defend the 3.
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Turns out they were bumped for a hockey game, which is frankly absurd.
Why not make the hockey team play in the old rink, where the women play?
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I attended the first event at Covelli, and when they unlocked the door for the first time I b-lined for the restroom only to discover that one of the employees had dropped a deuce in the commode without flushing. GD bastards at OSU can't even provide a clean restroom in a brand new building that is literally unlocking its doors for the first time.
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Turns out they were bumped for a hockey game, which is frankly absurd.
Why not make the hockey team play in the old rink, where the women play?
So we're at four arenas? The Schott is Value City, right?
I'd assume it comes down to two things.
1. There are no fans, so as long as the TV setup fits, they could do it in the rec center.
2. Hockey has a crapload more junk to haul. You don't have to load a truck with pads and skates.
I'm trying to figure out, is the court from an old NCAA tournament? Women's tournament?
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So we're at four arenas? The Schott is Value City, right?
I'd assume it comes down to two things.
1. There are no fans, so as long as the TV setup fits, they could do it in the rec center.
2. Hockey has a crapload more junk to haul. You don't have to load a truck with pads and skates.
I'm trying to figure out, is the court from an old NCAA tournament? Women's tournament?
The old ice hockey rink just sticks out the side of St John's. It hardly qualifies as a fourth arena. It has seating, but the locker rooms and concessions are all in St John. There is an old indoor Track sticking out the other side of St John as well.
It is a pretty cool place to watch a game, and there is this certain spot in the back corner where you can peer through a wall and watch what goes on with the Zamboni between runs. Mostly a lot of cleaning and filling, but still interesting.
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Let's see. San Francisco beat Virginia. Richmond beat Kentucky. Makes me feel better about OSU getting all they wanted from UMass-Lowell and Michigan struggling with Oakland.
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it's early
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Let's see. San Francisco beat Virginia. Richmond beat Kentucky. Makes me feel better about OSU getting all they wanted from UMass-Lowell and Michigan struggling with Oakland.
San Francisco and Richmond are both legit. Richmond has three NBA caliber dudes. No depth, but great top end talent.
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Let's see. San Francisco beat Virginia. Richmond beat Kentucky. Makes me feel better about OSU getting all they wanted from UMass-Lowell and Michigan struggling with Oakland.
Sport, man. They're fun.
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5-1 foul differential at the first tv timeout, and an 11-3 deficit. Must be our annual December loss to Duke
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5-1 foul differential at the first tv timeout, and an 11-3 deficit. Must be our annual December loss to Duke
Looking a lot better now.
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5-1 foul differential at the first tv timeout, and an 11-3 deficit. Must be our annual December loss to Duke
never fear, it's 2020
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MSU winning a regular season game vs. Duke would be the most 2020 thing to date
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boy, I really liked 2020 for PSU football at 0-5 and then an 0-5 team beating Michigan
that's just scary
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Congratulations to the Spartans for their win over DOOK.
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Congratulations to the Spartans for their win over DOOK.
Umm, MSU is 4-13 vs. Duke. Better than Nov. 30, 2020, when MSU was 3-13 vs. Duke. Michigan State Spartans at Duke Blue Devils - 12/1/20 College Basketball Picks and Prediction - PickDawgz (https://pickdawgz.com/college-basketball-picks/2020-12-01/michigan-state-spartans-at-duke-blue-devils-12-1-20-college-basketball-picks-and-prediction) It is MSU's first win at Cameron Indoor Cattle Congress.
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Umm, MSU is 4-13 vs. Duke. Better than Nov. 30, 2020, when MSU was 3-13 vs. Duke. Michigan State Spartans at Duke Blue Devils - 12/1/20 College Basketball Picks and Prediction - PickDawgz (https://pickdawgz.com/college-basketball-picks/2020-12-01/michigan-state-spartans-at-duke-blue-devils-12-1-20-college-basketball-picks-and-prediction) It is MSU's first win at Cameron Indoor Cattle Congress.
I was born in 1975. When Mike Krzyzewski was named coach at Dook on March 18, 1980 I was a couple months shy of five years old. I have zero recollection of DOOK basketball prior to that and little or no recollection of his first few years there (as I'm not a DOOK fan and CBB is secondary to CFB for me).
That said, their success over the past (nearly) 40 years is astounding. Krzyzewski took his fourth DOOK team to the NCAA Tournament and since then they have only missed one (two if you include the COVID cancellation in 2020). They won two NC's while I was in HS (90/91 and 91/92), another shortly after I graduated from college (00/01), and two more since then (09/10 and 14/15). 4-13 isn't great but we are talking about DOOK here, celebrate the win!
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I'm not even sure this is possible, but Bill Walton calling a basketball game might even be more annoying than Dick Vitale.
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Bill is easily more annoying, especially if you've heard him call more than a dozen games
the schtick never changes
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Umm, MSU is 4-13 vs. Duke. Better than Nov. 30, 2020, when MSU was 3-13 vs. Duke. Michigan State Spartans at Duke Blue Devils - 12/1/20 College Basketball Picks and Prediction - PickDawgz (https://pickdawgz.com/college-basketball-picks/2020-12-01/michigan-state-spartans-at-duke-blue-devils-12-1-20-college-basketball-picks-and-prediction) It is MSU's first win at Cameron Indoor Cattle Congress.
Yes? So?
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Bill is easily more annoying, especially if you've heard him call more than a dozen games
the schtick never changes
Yeah, I like him doing Pac 12 games. They start at 11, so I never watch all of them, and I don't watch enough of them to get sick of him
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The last game was in the Covelli center because of a Hockey game.
Why is this game in the Covelli center?
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Nits! 3 at the buzzer to beat VCU!
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Jalen Suggs out with an ankle injury
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Jalen Suggs out with an ankle injury
That for all the world looked like a ruptured or torn Achilles at first. I felt bad for him. Then he ends up playing most of the second half. Nuts.
As an aside, I feel better about WVU after that loss than any of their first 3 wins. I hope this season gets to play out. A couple of tough whistles really took our big guys out of the game in the second half, but they played 40 minutes with the Zags.
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I was about to criticize Maui's abandonment of their high school looking floor but now see they aren't even playing in Maui this year. Lol. Interesting they are in North Carolina, the same state that once hosted a Rose Bowl during the War.
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That for all the world looked like a ruptured or torn Achilles at first. I felt bad for him. Then he ends up playing most of the second half. Nuts.
As an aside, I feel better about WVU after that loss than any of their first 3 wins. I hope this season gets to play out. A couple of tough whistles really took our big guys out of the game in the second half, but they played 40 minutes with the Zags.
Yeah, I thought it was going to be bad. That said, I'm shocked they ran him back out there, he looked to be at about 60%.
WVU is still a lot of fun to watch, that was a good game last night. I've in general been pleased with the level of play early on in the year.
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2nd longest streak is Creighton with 3
https://twitter.com/KevinPauga/status/1334511518273122304?s=20
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Looks like the ACC/B1G Challenge will be missing a game next week. UW's opponent (L'Ville) is on pause, effective today.
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The Nebraska's men's basketball game against Florida A&M scheduled for Sunday, Dec. 6, at 1 p.m. has been canceled due to a positive COVID-19 test among Florida A&M Tier 1 support staff personnel.
The game was canceled due to Big Ten Conference policy and out of an abundance of caution.
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I hope MSUs players enjoyed all those press clippings from the week, because this sucks.
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Detroit isn't showing any Mercy.
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Titans giving Sparty a scare
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Crusaders going Biblical on Purdue right now. But they're committing a lot of "sins" which might end up being a lot of foul trouble later in the game.
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Maryland looking like the only Big Ten team that felt like showing up tonight
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Wow, get a damn rebound Bucky. Ugh
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Crusaders going Biblical on Purdue right now. But they're committing a lot of "sins" which might end up being a lot of foul trouble later in the game.
Purdue has very little to be happy about with this game... Other than escaping with a W.
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a W is something
this coming from a Husker fan - an expert
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a W is something
this coming from a Husker fan - an expert
In basketball?
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not much to root for, I'm not to attached, but I'd like to see them have more "W"s
I have a bit of hope with Fred as the new coach
I'll root for anything Husker
just gotta be realistic with expectations
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Wow, get a damn rebound Bucky. Ugh
That was actually a pleasant basketball game to watch, and not only due to the favorable outcome. I've not been much more than a very casual viewer and rarely watch a full game.
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That was actually a pleasant basketball game to watch, and not only due to the favorable outcome. I've not been much more than a very casual viewer and rarely watch a full game.
No.
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Looks like the ACC/B1G Challenge will be missing a game next week. UW's opponent (L'Ville) is on pause, effective today.
ppd
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ppd
Yep. UW will play Rhode Island on Wednesday.
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Sounds like UM-NC State might be off too.
Wisconsin hockey had a positive test, so UW-MSU hockey is also off for this week
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Man Purdue
Edit: Miami goes on 31-10 run to end game and win by 4
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Man Purdue
Edit: Miami goes on 31-10 run to end game and win by 4
Huh.
My lesson from 2020 has been that if something doesn't bring me joy, it should go DIAF and I don't need it in my life.
Seems Purdue sports is rapidly getting there on all fronts.
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So we are down 1-0 with PU losing to Miami but as I type this:
- MN is up 81-77 on BC in the closing seconds of OT
- tOSU is up 75-72 on ND with about 3 minutes to go
- Iowa is up 88-79 on UNC with about 4 minutes to go
- PSU is drilling VaTech early
If those leads all hold up we'll be up 4-1 heading into the nightcap games of IL/DOOK and RU/Cuse.
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Buckeyes sneak a win against Notre Dame. Not their finest defensive effort, but it was encouraging to see them score 90, considering scoring is one of their biggest question marks. EJ Liddell had a big game, especially in the second half. Musa Jallow also played big minutes, which was surprising. Still no sign of Seth Towns.
Iowa and Minny did win. 3-1 B1G so far, with three games to finish tonight and five more tomorrow.
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Buckeyes sneak a win against Notre Dame. Not their finest defensive effort, but it was encouraging to see them score 90, considering scoring is one of their biggest question marks. EJ Liddell had a big game, especially in the second half. Musa Jallow also played big minutes, which was surprising. Still no sign of Seth Towns.
Iowa and Minny did win. 3-1 B1G so far, with three games to finish tonight and five more tomorrow.
Right now we are leading in all three. Would be great to get to 6-1 tonight! Fingers crossed!
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Huh.
My lesson from 2020 has been that if something doesn't bring me joy, it should go DIAF and I don't need it in my life.
Seems Purdue sports is rapidly getting there on all fronts.
Plus side: Brohm not leaving.
Also, looking at the KenPom projections, the conference is gonna be a bloodbath.
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Yep. UW will play Rhode Island on Wednesday.
Neither road not island.
Discuss.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eow061ZWEAEr6bo?format=jpg&name=small)
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I know this isn't a great Duke team but that was fun to watch.
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So the B1G is up 6-1.
Today's games:
- Maryland at Clemson-2
- Indiana at FSU -2
- GaTech at UNL, pick
- Pitt at Northwestern-3.5
- MSU at UVA-2
Are the other three? games rescheduled?
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Hell of a good night. There was a time about halftime of the OSU game where I thought we'd start 0-4. Wiscy and Michigan's games were cancelled due to COVID, not sure they are going to make them up or not.
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UW and L'ville are talking makeup.
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Did anyone see Coach K's comments on the season? What a poor, entitled loser. I mean....unless he said something along these lines BEFORE the season started.
Duke University (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/7234Z:US) head basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski says it’s time for the sport to step back and assess the wisdom of continuing to play games during the surge in Covid-19 cases.
“I don’t think it feels right to anybody,” Krzyzewski said Tuesday during a press conference following the Blue Devils’ 83-68 loss against the University of Illinois. “I mean, everyone is concerned.”
While Krzyzewski, the winningest college basketball coach of all time, didn’t call for the season to be immediately halted, he did say that it was time to consider the option.
The Blue Devils coach said that the decision to start the season before a vaccine wasn’t “well-planned” and was reached with the idea of playing as many games as possible before an uptick in cases.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-09/duke-basketball-s-krzyzewski-says-it-s-time-to-reconsider-season
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He's a rat. I'm thinking his back is going to start hurting soon.
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Did anyone see Coach K's comments on the season? What a poor, entitled loser. I mean....unless he said something along these lines BEFORE the season started.
Duke University (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/7234Z:US) head basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski says it’s time for the sport to step back and assess the wisdom of continuing to play games during the surge in Covid-19 cases.
“I don’t think it feels right to anybody,” Krzyzewski said Tuesday during a press conference following the Blue Devils’ 83-68 loss against the University of Illinois. “I mean, everyone is concerned.”
While Krzyzewski, the winningest college basketball coach of all time, didn’t call for the season to be immediately halted, he did say that it was time to consider the option.
The Blue Devils coach said that the decision to start the season before a vaccine wasn’t “well-planned” and was reached with the idea of playing as many games as possible before an uptick in cases.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-09/duke-basketball-s-krzyzewski-says-it-s-time-to-reconsider-season
I thought he said the exact opposite before the season.
After last night, and Louisville, Virginia and NC State all postponing, I think the whole ACC might have a back flare up soon
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UW looked sloppy late, but I'll take it. Need to check, but they might be moving away from two bigs, as I kinda assumed.
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UW looked sloppy late, but I'll take it. Need to check, but they might be moving away from two bigs, as I kinda assumed.
At least Louisville and NC State had the decency to cancel with enough time for Wisconsin and Michigan to find replacement opponents. MSU flew all the way to Charlottesville, just to find out there was no game. Granted I don't expect iso to give a Dabo Swinney type speech
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https://twitter.com/zacvoynow/status/1336792078026760201?s=19
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B1G 0-fer with Northwestern last to finish
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ACC ducked three big fish
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Iowa women overcame a 17-point 4th Qtr deficit with 8:49 on the clock, to defeat #24 Iowa State. Iowa has a freshman from the metro Des Moines area who was a 5* recruit scoring +30 - a freshman. Future looks bright. The present looks bright.
Photos: Iowa State at Iowa women's basketball | The Gazette (https://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/photo-gallery-iowa-state-cyclones-iowa-hawkeyes-womens-basketball-game-20201209) And some great photos.
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ACC ducked three big fish
Exactly.
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Greg Gard now saying he doesn't know if the L'Ville game will be rescheduled. Supposedly the resumed team activities today, and they do have open dates.
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Greg Gard now saying he doesn't know if the L'Ville game will be rescheduled. Supposedly the resumed team activities today, and they do have open dates.
To be honest, if they weren't going to do conference only, it should have been regional warm up games anyway. I did not expect any of these to get made up
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Yesterday sure was rough. I guess we had it coming after Tuesday being so great.
On Tuesday the B1G went 6-1 in Challenge Games but that big gap covers up the fact that one of the wins was decided in OT while another two were very close deep into the second half or even the final seconds.
On Wednesday the close games all went the other way and the B1G went 0-4:
- IU lost in OT.
- NU lost despite leading nearly the entire game including up to 0:08 to go.
- UNL lost by 11 despite the game being VERY close for the first ~32 minutes and the Cornhuskers holding a lead with less than eight minutes to go.
- UMD just plain lost.
Bottom line, our conference got some lucky breaks on the way to 6-1 on Tuesday and some unlucky breaks on the way to 0-4 on Wednesday and now leads this thing 6-5 with three games postponed. Assuming they get rescheduled they should be:
- Louisiville at Wisconsin
- NCST at Michigan
- MSU at UVA
Assuming they get played, one win gets us a tie in the Challenge, two or three gets us a win.
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Looking at the games with ranked teams, the BIG was 5-1 with the only loss was by two in OT:
#3 Iowa by 13 over #16 UNC
#4 MSU - #18 Virginia Canceled
#6 Illinois by 15 over #10 Duke
PSU by 20 over #15 VT
#20 FSU by 2 over IU
#21 Rutgers by 10 over Cuse
#22 OSU by 5 over ND
Now, it may be waaaaay to early to tell but this does bode well for the tourney (provided they play it this year).
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I like this guy. Maybe he'll want to come home in a few years when Izzo retires
https://twitter.com/CecilHurt/status/1337124098984587271?s=19
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I like this guy. Maybe he'll want to come home in a few years when Izzo retires
https://twitter.com/CecilHurt/status/1337124098984587271?s=19
I am about 75% sure he is a coach who only got his call up to the college ranks because someone wanted to land a recruit. But he has made very good on it.
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I am about 75% sure he is a coach who only got his call up to the college ranks because someone wanted to land a recruit. But he has made very good on it.
To Buffalo? Anyway
https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1337134444726153217?s=19
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To Buffalo? Anyway
https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1337134444726153217?s=19
Yeah, someone he coached in HS and then went to JUCO. The kid was the MAC POY his second year, Buffalo won the MAC, Hurley got a better job, Oats moved up. The kid was thrown off the team for stealing and Oats went to the tourney three of four years, twice with awesome teams, then had Bama kinda feisty in a rebuilding way last year.
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Yeah, someone he coached in HS and then went to JUCO. The kid was the MAC POY his second year, Buffalo won the MAC, Hurley got a better job, Oats moved up. The kid was thrown off the team for stealing and Oats went to the tourney three of four years, twice with awesome teams, then had Bama kinda feisty in a rebuilding way last year.
IIRC Hurley saw him while recruiting EC Matthews as an assistant at Rhode Island. So when Hurley got the Buffalo job, he hired Oaks as an assistant. And Matthews went to URI
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K and Duke cancelling all remaining nonconference games?
Scheduling them in the first place was dumb, but bowing out once you lose is...well, par for the course for him
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IIRC Hurley saw him while recruiting EC Matthews as an assistant at Rhode Island. So when Hurley got the Buffalo job, he hired Oaks as an assistant. And Matthews went to URI
Yup. The future MAC POY was a couple years older. Heart think sidelined him at Toledo.
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K and Duke cancelling all remaining nonconference games?
Scheduling them in the first place was dumb, but bowing out once you lose is...well, par for the course for him
Exactly, once he figured out Duke is a middle tier BIG team, well what's the point in going forward? Definitely using COVID as an excuse. Did any of his players or staff catch it because of these games? I've always wanted Duke to lose yet conflicted because I respected Coach K so this is bringing him down. Sadly, he will probably get his way too.
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Exactly, once he figured out Duke is a middle tier BIG team, well what's the point in going forward? Definitely using COVID as an excuse. Did any of his players or staff catch it because of these games? I've always wanted Duke to lose yet conflicted because I respected Coach K so this is bringing him down. Sadly, he will probably get his way too.
I used to respect him, that's over. Between the back thing last time he had a bad team, and then going all in on the one and done, while still selling the DUKE brand as somehow different than Kentucky? No thanks. At least Coach Cal knows what he is, and doesn't shy away. K is the same cat now, and pretends like he isn't.
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Iowa 105
ISU 77
12/13/2020 - NIU, then
12/19/2020 - #1 Gonzaga
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpJ2afwXMAIzcoc?format=jpg&name=small)
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[img width=361.81 height=281]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpJ2afwXMAIzcoc?format=jpg&name=small[/img]
A real struggle. Liddell is out with mono, not a lot of punch from this team.
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[img width=273.429 height=281]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpJ2afwXMAIzcoc?format=jpg&name=small[/img]
Yikes, I didn't watch. Did CSU score a bunch of late points to make a blowout look close or did tOSU look THAT bad?
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Yikes, I didn't watch. Did CSU score a bunch of late points to make a blowout look close or did tOSU look THAT bad?
No, it was like a 3 to 5 pt game the entire time.
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No, it was like a 3 to 5 pt game the entire time.
Ugh.
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Oakland had a dude who reminded me of Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Along Came Polly. Anything within half court was within range. And he hit more of them than you'd expect...which was still a low percentage. It resulted in some bad basketball and a game where you allow 90 points and still win by 20
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Oakland had a dude who reminded me of Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Along Came Polly. Anything within half court was within range. And he hit more of them than you'd expect...which was still a low percentage. It resulted in some bad basketball and a game where you allow 90 points and still win by 20
Everyone has played with the guy who hits just enough bad shots that it gives him the confidence to keep taking them. He’ll miss 4 in a row but when that fifth one falls he’s like, “See? I can hit that.”
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Ugh.
fwiw OSU pretty much had the lead the whole time.
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Everyone has played with the guy who hits just enough bad shots that it gives him the confidence to keep taking them. He’ll miss 4 in a row but when that fifth one falls he’s like, “See? I can hit that.”
He actually hit more than he should have. I think they showed he was 10-12 against Oklahoma State, and I think he was still like 9-16 today.
They reminded me of Brad Underwood's first couple Illinois teams. They'll hit some bad shots, create a bunch of turnovers, but give you a ton of run-outs and open shots. MSU scored 109, won by 20, and didn't seem to play that well. They just kind of let Oakland do their thing.
Im not sold on how this OOC slate prepped them. They played against a ton of zone, and Detroit and Oakland played as loose as AAU teams.
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He actually hit more than he should have. I think they showed he was 10-12 against Oklahoma State, and I think he was still like 9-16 today.
They reminded me of Brad Underwood's first couple Illinois teams. They'll hit some bad shots, create a bunch of turnovers, but give you a ton of run-outs and open shots. MSU scored 109, won by 20, and didn't seem to play that well. They just kind of let Oakland do their thing.
Im not sold on how this OOC slate prepped them. They played against a ton of zone, and Detroit and Oakland played as loose as AAU teams.
Yeah, if he’s shooting at that clip it might be hard to make the case he is taking bad shots.
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UNI canceled their remaining OOC games, including UW this week. UW managed to get Loyola (Chicago) on the schedule for tomorrow.
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UNI canceled their remaining OOC games, including UW this week. UW managed to get Loyola (Chicago) on the schedule for tomorrow.
UW has been pleasingly nimble on this front.
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(https://i.imgur.com/tbchT4H.png)
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A real struggle. Liddell is out with mono, not a lot of punch from this team.
They are a mediocre team without Liddell. They have some talent, but they were getting destroyed on the boards. However, that freshman Key stepped up pretty well. He looked promising.
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DJ Carton shot the ball well tonight. Marquette looks much better than expected. Did we finally find the K disciple who can take his throne?
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We get OSU at Purdue tonight. Probably no Liddell for OSU, and it should be interesting to see OSU try to guard Purdue's big guys.
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DJ Carton shot the ball well tonight. Marquette looks much better than expected. Did we finally find the K disciple who can take his throne?
As soon as he gets Market really good, he'll blow out of town like the rest.
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UW had a solid win over Loyola last night. I fell asleep with about 10 to play. These 8PM Eastern starts (or later) are tough on people who get up early.
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As soon as he gets Market really good, he'll blow out of town like the rest.
Bunch of Mar-quitters.
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Purdue started poorly with turnovers, but settled down. Up 38-33 at the half. Not the cleanest game on either side, but I'll take a lead at the half any time.
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If OSU would stop giving up uncontested layups they'd be in better shape. High level basketball analysis here.
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Ugh. Not sure what to make of OSU. They really struggled to find offense tonight. OTOH they were missing four guys. Hope springs eternal I guess.
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OTOH I see so much potential in Purdue, but when or if they actually put it together is hit or miss.
But, 1-0 in conference.
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So what about tiers?
I'm thinking that Ohio State isn't as good as their record/ranking but other than that I don't have a lot to offer. With all the cancellations it is hard to tell for a lot of these teams.
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So what about tiers?
I'm thinking that Ohio State isn't as good as their record/ranking but other than that I don't have a lot to offer. With all the cancellations it is hard to tell for a lot of these teams.
Plus, what is home court actually worth?
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Plus, what is home court actually worth?
For Sasha Stefanovich, seems like quite a lot. He appears to brought his hot shooting at home and cold streaks on the road from last season into this year, even without fans.
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So what about tiers?
I'm thinking that Ohio State isn't as good as their record/ranking but other than that I don't have a lot to offer. With all the cancellations it is hard to tell for a lot of these teams.
I mean the Buckeyes are without Liddell and Towns right now. I think they'll be pretty good when they are available.
Agree with ELA that tiers may not make sense this year. Should we just do power rankings?
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I mean the Buckeyes are without Liddell and Towns right now. I think they'll be pretty good when they are available.
Agree with ELA that tiers may not make sense this year. Should we just do power rankings?
That might make more sense this year, who knows.
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The B1G looks to be rough sledding for everyone. While I'm definitely down on OSU this year from where I was, they are still a good team. But they could also finish 12th in the conference and be a good team.
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Clap
https://twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie/status/1339736589606346752?s=19
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Badgers look to be going throwback.
(https://i.imgur.com/E194NE3.jpg)
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Apparently the players designed them themselves
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They do kind of look like one of those Christmas ornaments that a kid makes at school, and brings home.
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Apparently the players designed them themselves
Yes, they did. Those 4 seniors.
I'd rather they gone with either "Wisconsin" or "Badgers", but not both.
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Our fandom probably keeps up from noticing or admitting this sometimes but every once in a while you get a game where the refs save you. Tonight was WVU’s night against Iowa St. Completely outplayed at home but was whistled for 11 fouls to ISU’s 29 and shot 37 FT to ISU’s 9 to pull it out 70-65. And yeah, several of them were weak calls and seemingly every block/charge went WVU’s way.
Oh well, I don’t blame officials for losses (even though I really want to sometimes) so I won’t apologize when we get a good whistle.
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I think we can admit singular calls, even large ones, they go our way. I think where we really struggle, is in admitting a favorable whistle over the course of a game. I know I can point to cases where a consistent style of whistle favor Michigan State, specifically cases where they let the teams play, which generally worked to Michigan state's advantage. there was a game where we beat the JJ sullinger Ohio State team that specifically comes to mind. But that's not admitting that the refs consistently favored Michigan State, simply that they consistently let a ton of contact go, which benefited Michigan State
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I think we can admit singular calls, even large ones, they go our way. I think where we really struggle, is in admitting a favorable whistle over the course of a game. I know I can point to cases where a consistent style of whistle favor Michigan State, specifically cases where they let the teams play, which generally worked to Michigan state's advantage. there was a game where we beat the JJ sullinger Ohio State team that specifically comes to mind. But that's not admitting that the refs consistently favored Michigan State, simply that they consistently let a ton of contact go, which benefited Michigan State
I think the refs on all of our teams' sides...
... when we're playing the Terps :57:
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Badgers putting in L'Ville early on. 30-8 with 7 left in the half.
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Bucks up 3-0. Should be 7-0, but perpetual whipping boy Harry Miller screwed up a block and got a holding call.
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Louisville is probably wishing they hadn't tried to make up this challenge game
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Gonzaga defense putting on a clinic
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I guess the Zags are really good.
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I guess the Zags are really good.
I think Jalen Suggs is playing himself into being the #1 pick.
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Challenge: Won
Eat it ACC
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I guess the Zags are really good.
Mark Few has built such a good program.
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I know the bad guys were missing their best player, but that was a helluva showing by Big Red.
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Challenge: Won
Eat it ACC
Do we know that for sure?
With Wisconsin's win the B1G is up 7-5.
Will M/NCST and/or MSU/UVA be played? If both are played and the B1G loses both that would result in a 7-7 tie, no?
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Do we know that for sure?
With Wisconsin's win the B1G is up 7-5.
Will M/NCST and/or MSU/UVA be played? If both are played and the B1G loses both that would result in a 7-7 tie, no?
I just wanted to bask. I was not doing math.
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Do we know that for sure?
With Wisconsin's win the B1G is up 7-5.
Will M/NCST and/or MSU/UVA be played? If both are played and the B1G loses both that would result in a 7-7 tie, no?
There has been zero talk of making up the MSU-Virginia game. I'm torn, they are a good challenge, and Michigan State has knocked them out of the tournament twice recently, but playing against them is just a painful watching experience
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We have a Seth Towns sighting
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Buckeyes get the win. Liddell is back, Towns got a couple minutes. Big contributions were by the freshmen, Key and Brown.
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NIce win in Cleveland over UCLA for the Buckeyes.
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Can we just count Purdue over Notre Dame as a Challenge win?
Really think this young Purdue team is starting to find themselves. It took toughness to respond after ND tied it up at 53. They could have folded. Really wish they could have avoided that foul-fueled Miami collapse. I think this team 2 weeks later mighty have pulled out that win.
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Can we just count Purdue over Notre Dame as a Challenge win?
Really think this young Purdue team is starting to find themselves. It took toughness to respond after ND tied it up at 53. They could have folded. Really wish they could have avoided that foul-fueled Miami collapse. I think this team 2 weeks later mighty have pulled out that win.
I mean, they went 0-3 vs. the Big Ten, so no? They just suck. Mike Brey is done
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Epo5NOvXUAAVQdd?format=jpg&name=large)
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MSU doing the anti-MSU think, and playing worse as the season progresses.
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At what point does Izzo admit this junior class is a bust?
Loyer and Kithier suck, taking Bingham over Williams over is a disaster. Thankfully Henry and Brown have outplayed their ratings, but they were the two lowest rates recruits in the class.
Loyer and Kithier getting the minutes they got tonight in a Big Ten game is unforgivable. MSU went from playing a crap lineup to playing a white flag lineup
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Northwestern dropping bodies. No one is safe.
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I just want to point out that Rutgers is alone atop the B1G standings at 2-0. On Wednesday the Buckeyes will host the league leaders in Columbus!
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Northwestern dropping bodies. No one is safe.
For some reason that building always gives us terrible problems. We lost there a few years ago, a couple years back we set the NCAA record for biggest comeback, and even last year I think we only won there by maybe five?
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For some reason that building always gives us terrible problems. We lost there a few years ago, a couple years back we set the NCAA record for biggest comeback, and even last year I think we only won there by maybe five?
Didn't MSU have an "and-one" year in the B1G a while back where the "one" was a loss to a sub .500 Northwestern?
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I think Jalen Suggs is playing himself into being the #1 pick.
Definitely a lottery pick. Dude couldn't miss even when contested. Still, Iowa shooters were way off all day 4-22 from 3 and 14-26 from the line. The stats show Iowa was outrebounded by 11 but it was really much worse than that, especially if you look at offensive boards. Correct any one of those and we have a different game. Barring injury or a bad timing COVID issue, this team can hang with anyone and should go deep in the tourney. Hopefully a rematch in March.
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Didn't MSU have an "and-one" year in the B1G a while back where the "one" was a loss to a sub .500 Northwestern?
They had a 14-4 year where they won the Big Ten by 4 games, but lost to NW and PSU. But they lost at home to Northwestern, with Kevin Coble and...?
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Now I remember how much I hated watching mid-aughts Wisconsin basketball
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I am a chord cutter so I didn't watch the game but listening to it, sounds like Purdue and Iowa actually played defense. Sure both went thru periods when shots just wouldn't drop but it sounds like the rest of the time the D was pretty solid. It also seems that Purdue learned the same lesson as ISU, if you get Garza to the bench because of foul trouble, he just comes back rested. He didn't blow up for 20 after taking a rest like he did against ISU but he did make a difference. I also hope Wieskamp can keep his current pace, if not, I am sure Bohannon will find his shot again.
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Now I remember how much I hated watching mid-aughts Wisconsin basketball
Badgers played like trash early and then just mashed. Hope that's a sign of the UW power that can be brought to bear.
Nebraska is interesting. They aggressively clog the paint and say, here's all the open shots you want, hit 'em. UW didn't for parts of last night, and then their offense relies on swishing some 25-footers. They're the kind of team you can hit 40 percent from 2 and 45 from 3 on the right night.
UW didn't do that, but it held the Huskers to just a miserable shooting night, and that'll kill you.
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Badgers played like trash early and then just mashed. Hope that's a sign of the UW power that can be brought to bear.
Nebraska is interesting. They aggressively clog the paint and say, here's all the open shots you want, hit 'em. UW didn't for parts of last night, and then their offense relies on swishing some 25-footers. They're the kind of team you can hit 40 percent from 2 and 45 from 3 on the right night.
UW didn't do that, but it held the Huskers to just a miserable shooting night, and that'll kill you.
the Huskers only know miserable shooting
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Here are the Worldwide leader's BPI rankings and "points above/below average" that they calculate each team to be:
- #2 Iowa, 13.9
- #10 Wisconsin, 11.4
- #11 Illinois, 10.9
- #17 Michigan State, 9.9
- #21 Indiana, 9.6
- #24 Michigan, 9.4
- #26 Ohio State, 9.3
- #34 Rutgers, 8.2
- #43 Purdue, 7.5
- #44 Penn State, 7.5
- #51 Northwestern, 6.5
- #52 Maryland, 6.5
- #56 Minnesota, 6.4
- #101 Nebraska, 3.3
I certainly do not agree with all of that but it is something to start from.
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First half winding down. Cold shooting for the Bucks and hot shooting for Rutgers. Rutgers is really good - they can attack the rim and shoot, and they play strong defense and have a legit rim protector.
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Here are the Worldwide leader's BPI rankings and "points above/below average" that they calculate each team to be:
- #2 Iowa, 13.9
- #10 Wisconsin, 11.4
- #11 Illinois, 10.9
- #17 Michigan State, 9.9
- #21 Indiana, 9.6
- #24 Michigan, 9.4
- #26 Ohio State, 9.3
- #34 Rutgers, 8.2
- #43 Purdue, 7.5
- #44 Penn State, 7.5
- #51 Northwestern, 6.5
- #52 Maryland, 6.5
- #56 Minnesota, 6.4
- #101 Nebraska, 3.3
I certainly do not agree with all of that but it is something to start from.
After half-watching the replay of the Iowa/Purdue game I'm not sure whether I trust that Iowa is fully "there". Iowa certainly didn't light it up offensively (their calling card because they suck defensively), and they were in their home arena. Purdue was in a lot of trouble matchup-wise, because Purdue's bigs are only really effective close to the basket while Garza has range, which isn't a good matchup for us. Outside of that, Iowa shot poorly [Purdue shot slightly worse], but the real difference was at the foul line. In the first half Iowa was in the bonus very early and that had a lot to do with their 10 pt halftime lead. I don't think overall they outplayed Purdue by very much elsewhere.
Iowa's certainly a good team, but #2 nationally? I don't buy it. I think there are more than a few teams that have the tools to completely expose them.
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Hell of a second half for the Buckeyes, who turned a ten point halftime deficit into a 12 point victory. They are close to being fully operational, as Seth Towns played more minutes off the bench and scored a couple baskets. But really, the main reason they won is that Rutgers came in shorthanded, the Buckeyes relentlessly attacked inside and got their bigs in foul trouble, and Rutgers' excellent guard Young got hurt. That left Rutgers short on bodies and they barely scored in the latter part of the second half.
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I'm sure the rotation will be shortened later in the year, but this is the deepest Buckeye team I've ever seen. Top end talent isn't amazing, but lots of quality players they can throw at you.
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I'm sure the rotation will be shortened later in the year, but this is the deepest Buckeye team I've ever seen. Top end talent isn't amazing, but lots of quality players they can throw at you.
It is something - every guy is pretty good, and no one is great. Towns has only played about eight minutes, but he's going to be a big part of the rotation by the end of the season if his health holds up. They were also missing two guys in Diallo and Johnson who won't be regular parts of the rotation but who will play. Diallo because he's tall, and Johnson because the backup point guard looks unsure of himself and they brought Johnson in early for that role.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ep9bxIFXcAAjHE8?format=jpg&name=large)
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Maybe Northwestern is actually good? Now they are up double digits on Indiana in Bloomington
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Maybe Northwestern is actually good? Now they are up double digits on Indiana in Bloomington
I guess we'll find out. Since Ohio State beat Rutgers, Northwestern is now alone in first place in the B1G and guess who Ohio State plays next? Northwestern in Evanston.
Per the BPI rankings that I posted above, the Wildcats are not very good (#11 in B1G, #51 nationally) but who knows. It is early and they now have a home win over #4 MSU by 15 and a road win over IU by 7 so maybe.
This Ohio State team "feels" like another borderline-tournament team (ie, barely in or barely out) but I could be wrong. If they come together nicely and improve they could move up and if they don't they could falter. The thing is that the last few years the Buckeyes have endured dreadful stretches at about this time of the year:
2019/2020:
- The Buckeyes were 9-0 and undefeated before losing to unranked Minnesota on 12/15.
- Then they won two more to get to 11-2 and #2 before losing to WVU on 12/29.
- That WVU loss on 12/29 was the first of four straight and six of seven in between wins over Kentucky on 12/21 and Northwestern on 1/26.
- That 1-6 stretch accounted for 22.5% of tOSU's games including 5% of the wins and 60% of the losses. Ie, outside of that the Buckeyes were 20-4. Additionally, the Buckeyes' other four losses were all understandable (@MN, @UW, @IA, @MSU) but the six losses within that stretch included vs UW, @UMD, @IU, @PSU, and vMN. At least some of those should have been wins.
2018/2019:
- The Buckeyes were 12-1 and #14 before hosting #8 MSU on January 5.
- They lost to MSU which is understandable, MSU was very good but then proceeded to lose their next four for a total of five straight and six out of seven between wins over High Point on 12/29 and Rutgers on 2/2.
- That 1-6 stretch accounted for 22.5% of tOSU's pre-B1G Tournament games including 3% of the wins and 46% of the losses. Ie, outside of that the Buckeyes were 17-7 heading into the B1G Tournament.
So you'll understand if I'm a little nervous heading into late-December and January.
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So today we have the New Mexico Bowl.
Which doesn't involve any team from the state of New Mexico. And will be played in Texas.
An I missing something here?
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Tomorrow's UW-MSU matchup will be interesting.
UW never plays well in EL, and they've been starting slow before turning it on. They've only had one game with nut-cutting time, and lost that, though it was kinda a mess everywhere down the stretch. I don't know much about the Spartans at this point, but UW is still figuring out its better lineups.
Looks like MSU is still playing crazy deep. That's interesting. Rocket Watts at point, also interesting.
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So today we have the New Mexico Bowl.
Which doesn't involve any team from the state of New Mexico. And will be played in Texas.
An I missing something here?
... in the basketball thread, maybe?
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The Basket Bowl thread?
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... in the basketball thread, maybe?
Oops
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So today we have the New Mexico Bowl.
Which doesn't involve any team from the state of New Mexico. And will be played in Texas.
An I missing something here?
Texas fought explicitly to not be any Mexico, new or old.
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Tomorrow's UW-MSU matchup will be interesting.
UW never plays well in EL, and they've been starting slow before turning it on. They've only had one game with nut-cutting time, and lost that, though it was kinda a mess everywhere down the stretch. I don't know much about the Spartans at this point, but UW is still figuring out its better lineups.
Looks like MSU is still playing crazy deep. That's interesting. Rocket Watts at point, also interesting.
Yeah, if I had to give Izzo one criticism it would be his inability to trim his rotation when the players don't make it blatantly obvious for him. The 2005 Final 4 team is the one major exception that comes to mind. Kithier and Bingham simply aren't planning out, but he won't close the book on two upperclassmen who do the right thing. I'm actually shocked Bingham didn't transfer. I think that may have been a win for both sides.
As for things that can improve, the defense. Watts isn't a true point guard, but he, with Brown, Langford and Henry should be the best set of perimeter defenders in the conference, and they simply are not. Hall has a long way to be Tillman as a defensive 4, but he's got the raw tools. And Bingham can at least be a rim protector. Loyer, Hauser and Kithier are all going to struggle defensively, but you've got 5 of your top 8, who all should be good to great defensive, being sub 50 in KenPim defense is inexcusable
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Yeah, if I had to give Izzo one criticism it would be his inability to trim his rotation when the players don't make it blatantly obvious for him. The 2005 Final 4 team is the one major exception that comes to mind. Kithier and Bingham simply aren't planning out, but he won't close the book on two upperclassmen who do the right thing. I'm actually shocked Bingham didn't transfer. I think that may have been a win for both sides.
As for things that can improve, the defense. Watts isn't a true point guard, but he, with Brown, Langford and Henry should be the best set of perimeter defenders in the conference, and they simply are not. Hall has a long way to be Tillman as a defensive 4, but he's got the raw tools. And Bingham can at least be a rim protector. Loyer, Hauser and Kithier are all going to struggle defensively, but you've got 5 of your top 8, who all should be good to great defensive, being sub 50 in KenPim defense is inexcusable
One thing I will say I love about UW: When it comes to play the best guys 35-39 minutes, they go ahead and just do it. I much prefer the complaint of, they didn't use the bench enough.
Also, I was watching highlights of the UW upset of MSU in Madison last season. Winston finished out his career, and I still think he's underrated. He was just a straight killer. He might be one of the players I least enjoyed UW playing. Neitzel was also up there.
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I'm not sure how this is even close right now. Bucky is shooting 63% from 3, and is on pace to force 20 TOs
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Heckuva first half
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42 all at the break? What the hell is going on in the Big Ten? Usually that's a score for the end of regulation between these two, not halftime.
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Bummed that last year's team didn't get a chance to finish. Too much experience walked out the door. This team is too sloppy with the ball, and can't figure out how to use their defensive tools for good.
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Watched the ending, great game in East Lansing. Wisconsin with 85 points wow!
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That was satisfying. Nip and tuck, tight to the end.
I'm smiling because preseason a lot of UW fans imagined this team would play super big, and I just assumed they'd play their normal and plug in freshman Johnny Davis in at the 3. They went with him and two guards for all of crunch time. Kid is gonna be a functional four-year starter.
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Davis might be a 2-3 year starter the way he's coming out of the gate.
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Davis might be a 2-3 year starter the way he's coming out of the gate.
He's got a few 8th year seniors ahead of him
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Really not sure who is coming back for another year right now. Trice, Ford, Davison and Anderson are not NBA players. Potter might be.
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Davis might be a 2-3 year starter the way he's coming out of the gate.
I assume the 2 would be if he got too excited and left early?
That kid is starting the next three years. And I kinda bet he'll finish this year top-5 in minutes.
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Really not sure who is coming back for another year right now. Trice, Ford, Davison and Anderson are not NBA players. Potter might be.
Trice and Ford are both in their sixth years out of HS. Kids like that almost never come back. Anderson has already said he'll be back. Davison would be big, since they missed on like six ambitious SG targets after the Roper kid went to NW.
Potter is five years in and probably should take his shot. I know on the other board, they said Nate is very out.
If Bowman wants to come back that'd be peachy, but I think they gotta grab a transfer somewhere in there. Front court looks reloaded and fierce. Backcourt feels a little light, though if they get Brad back, him, Davis, Anderson and the stud freshman should be passable with growing pains.
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I assume the 2 would be if he got too excited and left early?
That kid is starting the next three years. And I kinda bet he'll finish this year top-5 in minutes.
I was thinking he might be NBA material after 2-3 years. He looks really good for an 18 y/o. How he was not rated in the top 150 out of HS is beyond me.
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https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1342571284295643136?s=19
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https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1342571284295643136?s=19
Yeah. Some people on UW boards were like "Trice showed him!"
And I'm thinking, nah, it was fine for MSU. In fact, if there hadn't been a surprise injury, Trice would've lined up year for year with Winston.
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Tight finish in West Lafayette, but the Boilers edge the Terps 73-70.
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Wow. One of the greatest Gophers games I've ever seen.
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Buckeyes take on Northwestern today, in a game I thought would be a little more comfortable than it's looking right now
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Looks like the B1G will eat itself alive this season.
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Looks like the B1G will eat itself alive this season.
That's a lot of years.
UW projected at 12-6 the rest of the way, as a top-5 team in KenPom, with four top-20 games on the slate. Four other top-21 teams. Projections have all but three teams between 12-8 and 8-12.
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That's a lot of years.
UW projected at 12-6 the rest of the way, as a top-5 team in KenPom, with four top-20 games on the slate. Four other top-21 teams. Projections have all but three teams between 12-8 and 8-12.
Difference this year is the lack of non conference games to prove it. Wisconsin making that game up with Louisville is huge. Otherwise what do they have, a loss to Marquette? Michigan looks good, but when NC State cancelled, they had to play Toledo, so they've played nobody. If MSU had their typical Duke loss, I'd be nervous now.
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Difference this year is the lack of non conference games to prove it. Wisconsin making that game up with Louisville is huge. Otherwise what do they have, a loss to Marquette? Michigan looks good, but when NC State cancelled, they had to play Toledo, so they've played nobody. If MSU had their typical Duke loss, I'd be nervous now.
Tight, stupid loss to Marquette.
MSU is hit hard in the numerical stuff, but I think they'll be feisty when all said and done. They could be quite good and be battling for fourth this year.
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Some sloppy play by the Bucks in the first half, saved by Seth Towns hitting three threes.
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Another body for Northwestern :(
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Another body for Northwestern :(
SHOOT, I forgot this game was on.
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Can the Cats be stopped?
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First 3-0 Big Ten start for Northwestern since 1969
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Another body for Northwestern :(
Does tOSU have a tournament team this year?
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Does tOSU have a tournament team this year?
It's tourney quality but what's the cutoff line in the B1G? 10? 11? 12?
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The Northwestern game played out a lot like the Cleveland St game, only Northwestern was able to pull it out in the end.
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It's tourney quality but what's the cutoff line in the B1G? 10? 11? 12?
Eh, his year's Buckeye team is a lot better than a couple dozen teams that will make the tournament but that doesn't mean they are "tournament quality", IMHO. That is simply the inherent unfairness of the set-up. I don't think this team is "tournament quality" for a major conference team. I hope I'm wrong but I don't see it, at least not yet.
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Eh, his year's Buckeye team is a lot better than a couple dozen teams that will make the tournament but that doesn't mean they are "tournament quality", IMHO. That is simply the inherent unfairness of the set-up. I don't think this team is "tournament quality" for a major conference team. I hope I'm wrong but I don't see it, at least not yet.
Once I realized the reality of the two tier tournament (the TTT) I don't know if there's an inherent unfairness. There's an interesting structure that is, in its own way accidentally sort of genius and quite fair in a global sense. It came about by accident, but it really works well.
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Eh, his year's Buckeye team is a lot better than a couple dozen teams that will make the tournament but that doesn't mean they are "tournament quality", IMHO. That is simply the inherent unfairness of the set-up. I don't think this team is "tournament quality" for a major conference team. I hope I'm wrong but I don't see it, at least not yet.
Kind of early for bracketology. They did go undefeated in the noncon. ND kind of sucks but UCLA is 29th on KenPom and has a shot at winning the Pac12, so that could be a helpful victory.
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I saw someone suggest doing it WC style, where conferences get a pre-designated number of bids (like Federationsfor the WC) based upon their average number of bids over the past 5 years. You want to do a full round robin, go for it. You want to do a tournament, go for it.
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If Iowa doesn't figure out some sort of perimeter defense they will be in trouble. Once in a while teams have a great night shooting but when it's every night, it's a trend. Congrats to Minn, they played it right.
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If Iowa doesn't figure out some sort of perimeter defense they will be in trouble. Once in a while teams have a great night shooting but when it's every night, it's a trend. Congrats to Minn, they played it right.
don't get too down on your team the gophers got real lucky towards the end of that game. dude hits 8 3's and hasn't shown that all year
Iowa is still a great BB team and will be there at the end of the year. the BigTen is very deep and if any team has a off night the other team can sneak up and pull one out like Minnesota did on Xmas
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11 minutes in, no fouls on Minnesota. MSU can't shoot. Tourney streak is certain jeopardy
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Pitino did well in the transfer portal this offseason. Robbins is a beast
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Cockburn and Garza completely destroyed Robbins. He is eating MSU alive. This certainly bodes terribly for facing actual good big men
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Of course Maryland goes on the road and beats Wisconsin. #B1G
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Izzo needs to take his loyalty and shove it. The junior class is a bust, Langford looks like a guy who has been injured for two years. I appreciate program guys who do the right thing, but these guys are killing us. Hoggard is the best PG, Watts needs to go to the 2. These decisions are obvious to anyone without a personal relationship with the players.
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Of course Maryland goes on the road and beats Wisconsin. #B1G
#B1GEatsItselfAlive
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So strange.
(https://i.imgur.com/yTRIQ0d.png)
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don't get too down on your team the gophers got real lucky towards the end of that game. dude hits 8 3's and hasn't shown that all year
Iowa is still a great BB team and will be there at the end of the year. the BigTen is very deep and if any team has a off night the other team can sneak up and pull one out like Minnesota did on Xmas
Oh I'm not down on them at all. I still thing they are a final four team but when every game shows someone hitting more 3s than they did all year, it shows something. Thankfully Iowa has an offense that can keep pace so they will win most games since they have multiple players who can take over.
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#1 Gonzaga plays Dixie St tonight, which is currently my neighborhood team. This is Dixie St's first year of D1, and this is their first ever game against a ranked opponent. Should be quite the bloodbath.
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#1 Gonzaga plays Dixie St tonight, which is currently my neighborhood team. This is Dixie St's first year of D1, and this is their first ever game against a ranked opponent. Should be quite the bloodbath.
I swear I’ve made this joke on here before but Dixie St sounds like a fictional school out of a movie. Sounds like a team James Caan’s Eastern State Timberwolves would have played in The Program.
On another note, is it just me or is Gonzaga playing 5 games a week? Every time I turn on ESPN I see a Gonzaga score scroll across the screen.
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It's where Adam Sandler played in Waterboy.
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#1 Gonzaga plays Dixie St tonight, which is currently my neighborhood team. This is Dixie St's first year of D1, and this is their first ever game against a ranked opponent. Should be quite the bloodbath.
63-38 at the half. The Zags should obliterate the century mark in this one.
Is it the Zags or the Bulldogs? Court says both.
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Bucks play Nebraska tonight. I feel like for every team, Nebraska is a must win game. Which means that when Nebraska scores a win it's going to suck. Hopefully it's not tonight.
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I'll be watching
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It's a brick laying contest in the first half
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Nebraska is quite the basketball powerhouse.
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Nebraska is quite the basketball powerhouse.
Not this year, though they have help on the way
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I expected a win but I'm shocked with that score
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Nebraska is quite the basketball powerhouse.
I'd reply with a "F" you, but I agree
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Are Indiana and Penn State also in that must win category for the contenders?
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Are Indiana and Penn State also in that must win category for the contenders?
No. Penn State is 53rd on KenPom, 3 spots behind MSU. Indiana is 22nd. Northwestern is 13th in the conference at 54. Nebraska is last at 122. So there is some distance between them and everyone else.
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Based on early returns, I'd be quicker to drop MSU into that group than to move those 2 up. Izzo will probably get it figured out, but it looks ugly so far.
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Bonus Big Ten basketball.
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And Indiana gets their first win. Generally unimpressed with these teams, but time will tell.
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Purdue at illinois today. I think I'm going to avoid punishing myself and watching it. Terrible matchup for the Boilers to begin with, and I think we're too young to overcome that on the road.
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Looks like Shaka may have finally put it together in Austin. They might have the #2 team in the nation.
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Looks like Shaka may have finally put it together in Austin. They might have the #2 team in the nation.
Man the top five of the Big 12 is something
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Psht. Everyone knows that all of the best games are on Sunday.
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Well, hello Purdue
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MSU had more blocks in the first half than in their previous three games combined. And all 4 came from freshmen
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Good or bad three-point shooting can flip the script on a team that is otherwise playing good or bad. so if you said the only problem with this MSU team, is that they weren't shooting the ball well, whatever, that's mostly luck. But the way this team defends in the half court is inexcusable. The Bridges/Jackson was an elite interior defensive team, but I thought this had the chance to be the best perimeter defense that is oh had had in a while. Usually len gth plus athleticism equals success. But the footwork of these guys, is abysmal. They can't stop the ball drive, and they do not get in shooters faces
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As long as this is a 12 bid league, MSU should be ok
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Wisconsin PSU postponed, apparently due to COVID though it's a bit vague
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Gophers continue to impress at home.....and look lost on the road.
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My God
https://twitter.com/clubtrillion/status/1345963162525290496?s=19
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And no assist
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"The men’s basketball game between Nebraska and Purdue scheduled for Tuesday, Jan. 5, in West Lafayette, Ind., is being postponed. The universities mutually agreed to the postponement out of an abundance of caution surrounding the health and safety of the student-athletes, coaches and staff. The two schools will work with the Big Ten Conference to reschedule the game."
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Well crap. Purdue might have actually won that one.
Wonder which program it was... Or both?
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apparently, they don't want us to know
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apparently, they don't want us to know
Welp
https://twitter.com/mattcharboneau/status/1346242276578746376?s=19
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apparently, they don't want us to know
They could tell you, but then they'd have to kill you?
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https://twitter.com/JohnGasaway/status/1346257676616015877?s=19
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In the last two games WVU completely erased an 18 point lead against Oklahoma only to end up falling a little short to win it and, tonight, was down 19 to Ok St with under 12 minutes to play and this time completed the comeback.
Getting too old for this shit.
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PSU OSU postponed due to Lion Covid
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This team is even sloppy by MSU standards. This is a make or break week for the NCAA tourney. Rutgers and Purdue at home. Both decent to good teams, both at home. Have to get back to .500 in the league.
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What awful basketball. MSU can't hang onto the ball and Rutgers can't run offense.
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If MSU could hang onto the damn ball, they'd be up 20. Rutgers has no assists, 0-3 from 3, 0-6 on FTs. But MSU keeps handing them breakaways. 12 TOs in 16 minutes. Leading to basically all of Rutgers' points
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MSU maybe figured out the recipe against Rutgers, who was #1 in the Big Ten in 3 point shooting, but dead last in FTs.
They completely.sold out against the 3, and trusted their rim protection, figuring they'd either get the block or draw the foul, and Rutgers wouldn't convert.
The Knights made just three 3s, missed their first 8 FTs, en route to a 35% night, and had 8 shots blocked.
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MSU maybe figured out the recipe against Rutgers, who was #1 in the Big Ten in 3 point shooting, but dead last in FTs.
They completely.sold out against the 3, and trusted their rim protection, figuring they'd either get the block or draw the foul, and Rutgers wouldn't convert.
The Knights made just three 3s, missed their first 8 FTs, en route to a 35% night, and had 8 shots blocked.
On par with their game against IA. They were 4-12 at the line and lost by 2.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMyuv3wkTJs&ab_channel=ErnieMccracken
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Despite my indifference towards college hoops, if fans are allowed to attend NCAA Tourney games, beyond families, I think im going to aim to go. I'm sure I'm not alone in favoring a game at Hinkle. I go there for a Butler game usually vs Marquette so often, it is 100x better than an NBA arena or a freaking football stadia. In sure ncaa will order curtains up to block natural light which is stupid.
Games at Assembly, Mackey or even the IUPUI Pepsi Coliseum at State Fair aren't bad consolations, so long as you're not buried up high at Assembly Hall. Too bad the Wigwam is out of commission that would've been a cool spot. The other attractive big high school gyms can't support the college court size.
Guessing BIG fans will be well represented.
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OT in Madison!
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OT in Madison!
x2
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Hawkeye game wasn't much
changed to the Badger game - much better
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Good lord Cats.
40-7 Illinois run. From down 17 to up 16
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What a tale of two halves. I think Northwestern has 11 second half points.
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Welp
https://twitter.com/mattcharboneau/status/1346242276578746376?s=19
The Nebraska men's basketball team returns to action on Sunday afternoon, as the Huskers welcome the Indiana Hoosiers to Pinnacle Bank Arena.
Tipoff between the Huskers and Hoosiers is slated for 5 p.m. (central) and will be carried on BTN with Larry Punteney and Shon Morris on the call.
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tough battle by Purdue
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CJ Walker out for the Bucks. This is going to be rough.
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Well it was ugly but not for the Bucks. Though they may be in tough shape with Walker out and now Sotos apparently separating his shoulder.
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Yeah, I don't think Meechie is ready for big minutes. Maybe play Washington at PG and bump Jallow to the starting lineup?
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErT_OQpWMAAdzlb?format=jpg&name=large)
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What a tale of two halves. I think Northwestern has 11 second half points.
I didn't see the game but just looking at the point by half, I don't think I've ever seen a bigger difference:
Northwestern:
- 43 first half points
- 13 second half points
- 56 total
Illinois:
- 28 first half points
- 53 second half points
- 81 total
What an enormous difference. With two of the first half, Northwestern wins 86-56. With two of the second half, Illinois wins 106-26.
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Life in the B1G is rough. With the cancelation/postponement of the PSU game, the Buckeyes are now in the midst of a five game stretch where four of the five are road games against ranked teams:
- 1/3 @ #21 Minnesota, L 77-60
- 1/9 @ #15 Rutgers, W 79-68
- 1/13 vs nr Northwestern
- 1/16 @ #12 Illinois
- 1/23 @ #8 Wisconsin
Yikes!
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Yeah, I don't think Meechie is ready for big minutes. Maybe play Washington at PG and bump Jallow to the starting lineup?
I assume that's what they'll do, but man Washington as the main ball handler always feels like an adventure.
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I think UW loses at Michigan on Tuesday, but should be one worth tuning in for.
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How on earth could a loss to the wolverines be worth tuning in for? O0
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The University of Nebraska men's basketball program has paused full team activities due to positive COVID-19 results among its Tier 1 personnel. Tier 1 personnel include student athletes, coaches and any staff member whose job requires close regular contact.
Due to the pause, the Huskers' home game against Illinois (Wed., Jan. 13) has been postponed. The institutions will work with the Big Ten Conference to identify rescheduling options. At this time, no determination has been made on how the pause may impact scheduled games beyond Jan. 13.
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There’s an irony that in the off-season etc wondered about Michigan’s guard depth. It appears they solved that by only playing two guards and sliding forwards up to the 2 to fill out lineups.
At least that’s the sense I get from the stats.
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Update: Michigan is kicking Wisconsin to death
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Michigan pretty clearly playing the best ball in the conference right now
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36-3 run
I don't think I've seen a more dominating stretch of basketball ever in Big Ten play
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I had the Michigan game on in the background all evening. It’s rare that you see a 23 point victory but know it wasn’t nearly that close.
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Update: Michigan is kicking Wisconsin to death
I turned it to DDD after the 36-3 run. Couldn't take the pain anymore.
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Michigan not only is playing lights-out, but has about as favorable of a conference schedule as it gets. They get both Illinois and Iowa just once, and both are at home no less. Not sure what their toughest remaining road game is (probably a toss-up between Wisconsin, OSU, and Sparty) but after watching the complete domination of Wisconsin last night, it's entirely possible UM wins all three. The way they're playing, and even as brutal as this league is, I have a hard time seeing UM doing worse than 17-3 in B1G play. Maybe even 18-2.
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Michigan is playing solid on both ends of the floor. If I had one problem with their game last night was the 13 assists to 32 FG but if it's not broke, don't fix it. Howard has them playing well and has to be the leading candidate for COY. It's still early tho, it's hard to make many projections in this league 1/3 in to the conference season. Still if I had to rank the conference at this point it would be difficult. Since this is not official like FB:
1. Michigan
2. Iowa
3-8 depends on the day/week but in any order: Illinois, Wisconsin, OSU, Purdue, Minn, IU
09-11 MSU, Rutgers or Northwestern
12 Maryland
13 PSU
13.5 Nebraska
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What's even more impressive is that Michigan wasn't getting the preseason love that Illinois, Iowa, MSU, and Wisconsin were getting. In retrospect, MSU is clearly not playing up to the preseason hype; Wisconsin and Illinois are probably a smidge below expectations, Iowa is about where it's expected to be, but it's upstart Michigan that has taken the conference by the horns. I initially thought that 14-6 was going to win the conference - unless UM has some sort of mid-February meltdown, I have a very hard time seeing them losing six games.
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Agreed, preseason I would have had them somewhere in the middle. I thought the championship was going to be between IA and ILL with MSU and Wisky as the next possible. I figured there would be a surprise team to ruin it for one of them. Early I thought their schedule was soft (which still may hurt them come selection Sunday) but blowing out NW, Minn and Wisc showed they are for real.
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The B1G might have multiple teams represented in the Final Four this year. I don't know how long it's been since the last time that happened.
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The B1G might have multiple teams represented in the Final Four this year. I don't know how long it's been since the last time that happened.
2015 MSU and Wiscy I believe
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Mady Sissoko and Steven Izzo both test positive for COVID.
So far that's it, but we'll see. MSU has yet to be the cancelling party in either football or basketball, I wonder how many schools can say that. So far, game appears to still be on, but we'll see.
As for game impact, Izzo is nothing obviously, but Sissoko is MSU's biggest big man. Not the most skilled, doesn't play the most, but probably the best shot blocker, and if nothing else, is 5 fouls to use in trying to slow down Garza.
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MSU has yet to be the cancelling party in either football or basketball, I wonder how many schools can say that.
Your next opponent can say this too.
if nothing else, is 5 fouls to use in trying to slow down Garza.
Only difference than Shaq is Garza hits his FTs. Still MSU is Iowa's problem child. I could see Henry going for 30 since Iowa has trouble covering anyone who can shoot.
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Only difference than Shaq is Garza hits his FTs. Still MSU is Iowa's problem child. I could see Henry going for 30 since Iowa has trouble covering anyone who can shoot.
I don't mean hack a Garza; I just mean another big body who has 5 fouls to use up attempting to guard him. The more of those guys you have, the more comfortable you can be defending him aggressively.
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I understood what you meant, I just had to throw in a cheap plug for Garza. It does help to keep fresh bodies on him and even more if he has to work hard on the other end. I don't mean get him to the bench with foul trouble since generally then you just get a rested Garza in the final 10 minutes. Regardless, he will get his points, I think Iowa will struggle more against better perimeter defense. Also, IA is not a good rebounding team, in both of their losses those teams had a lot of 2nd chance points to go with personal best 3s.
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Audige is a one man wrecking ball here.
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I understood what you meant, I just had to throw in a cheap plug for Garza. It does help to keep fresh bodies on him and even more if he has to work hard on the other end. I don't mean get him to the bench with foul trouble since generally then you just get a rested Garza in the final 10 minutes. Regardless, he will get his points, I think Iowa will struggle more against better perimeter defense. Also, IA is not a good rebounding team, in both of their losses those teams had a lot of 2nd chance points to go with personal best 3s.
Ugh, and now game postponed.
MSU needs quality wins. A loss to Iowa doesn't move the needle, but a (unlikely) win sure helps.
Granted, McCaffrey can't beat MSU, but this felt like an exorcize the demons game. But I guess you never know.
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Northwestern seems to be trending in a southeasterly direction.
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Still annoyed we let that one slip at NU. The lack of point guards didn't seem to hurt much, though late in the game they were a bit discombobulated. Meechie wasn't worthless out there, and OSU is approaching goofy rotation numbers.
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Ugh, and now game postponed.
MSU needs quality wins. A loss to Iowa doesn't move the needle, but a (unlikely) win sure helps.
Granted, McCaffrey can't beat MSU, but this felt like an exorcize the demons game. But I guess you never know.
I just heard this but Iowa doesn't need another sudo-upset loss. Previously Izzo has had better or equal teams, not necessarily the case this year. He is just a better coach which still does overcome talent. At least it's just postponed and not canceled.
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The women announced a pause at the same time. Sounds like there could be a number of cases.
No clue how this gets resolved in time to play Indiana on Sunday.
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The women announced a pause at the same time. Sounds like there could be a number of cases.
No clue how this gets resolved in time to play Indiana on Sunday.
Now that is postponed too
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Due to some rearrangements, Purdue is playing their 4th straight road game and will also play 4 games in 8 days starting with this game against IU.
Next up:
PSU Sunday
@ OSU Tues
Mich Fri
I know Michigan has been the class of the conference, but they will get to face an exhausted Boiler team to steal another road win.
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Purdue has started the Big Ten playing 5 of 7 games on the road, and having played against 4 ranked teams. Frankly, I'm ecstatic that they are 4-3 at this point.
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The announcers highlighted that historically the premier recruits in the state of Indiana tend to find their way to Bloomington instead of West Lafayette...
...yet Purdue leads the historical series, has now won 8 straight against IU (including 4 straight on the road), and Archie Miller hasn't beaten Purdue as the coach of the Hoosiers.
Most would also be surprised to know that Gene Keady actually had the H2H edge against Bobby Knight. It's narrow (I think he was one game above .500), but I think most casual fans would have thought that Knight led.
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Purdue has started the Big Ten playing 5 of 7 games on the road, and having played against 4 ranked teams. Frankly, I'm ecstatic that they are 4-3 at this point.
Honestly getting to 5-5 by the end of the week would be pretty solid. Even if that included a loss to PSU, the loss would be redeemed by either a road win over OSU or a home win over Michigan, neither game which should be considered likely for Purdue to take the W.
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The announcers highlighted that historically the premier recruits in the state of Indiana tend to find their way to Bloomington instead of West Lafayette...
...yet Purdue leads the historical series, has now won 8 straight against IU (including 4 straight on the road), and Archie Miller hasn't beaten Purdue as the coach of the Hoosiers.
Most would also be surprised to know that Gene Keady actually had the H2H edge against Bobby Knight. It's narrow (I think he was one game above .500), but I think most casual fans would have thought that Knight led.
I don't think most Big Ten fans would be. Purdue has long been an elite regular season program. They just haven't had much success in the one event that casual fans follow.
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Wiscy-Rutgers play tonight in a battle of teams that could really use a get right game. Of course you don't get many of those in this conference, so it's hard to predict who will bounce back better. Should be a good one.
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Wiscy-Rutgers play tonight in a battle of teams that could really use a get right game. Of course you don't get many of those in this conference, so it's hard to predict who will bounce back better. Should be a good one.
Yeah, a loss here would piss me off. Not because Rutgers is bad but just because I’d like a win.
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Michigan is a basketball school now. How depressing.
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Pretty good lineup today with Bucks taking on the Illini at noon, then Michigan go to Minny at 2, then playoffs start at 4. Though watching the size free Buckeyes try to handle Kofi Cockburn will not be fun for me.
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UW got right last night. Wasn't pretty at all, let an early lead slip away. But they locked in down the stretch.
This team isn't where I hoped it would be, primarily because the returning leading scorer has been on the struggle bus and the other center has had some defensive issues. Gotta shore that up.
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UW got right last night. Wasn't pretty at all, let an early lead slip away. But they locked in down the stretch.
This team isn't where I hoped it would be, primarily because the returning leading scorer has been on the struggle bus and the other center has had some defensive issues. Gotta shore that up.
I don't know what to think of Rutgers. They have been great at times and I thought would be easily in the top four of the league. But Geo Baker seems a shell of himself, Ron Harper has fallen off, and who knows if they will defend on any given night.
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Yeah I think the Illini win big today. Just not a good matchup and too banged up and inexperienced at PG for this type of game. Should be a better game when these teams rematch in March.
I think Minny has a real shot today. That will be a great game.
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Yeah, I'm nervous the Buckeyes may not have many quality wins if these trends continue. ND turned out to be crap. Rutgers x2 is not looking great. Northwestern is probably an NIT team (if there is one). At least UCLA is looking good.
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I don't know what to think of Rutgers. They have been great at times and I thought would be easily in the top four of the league. But Geo Baker seems a shell of himself, Ron Harper has fallen off, and who knows if they will defend on any given night.
Ehh, the top four of this league is just real damn good, I think.
But yeah, they have all this size and these guards who can be good but are not all the time. Their coach is good and I'm not sure if they're "talented" or they're getting a lot from kind of misshapen toys. They were feisty and can dunk a lot, and if they'd been a little cleaner in some stuff, they would've beat a somewhat out of sorts Bucky.
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The announcers highlighted that historically the premier recruits in the state of Indiana tend to find their way to Bloomington instead of West Lafayette...
...yet Purdue leads the historical series, has now won 8 straight against IU (including 4 straight on the road), and Archie Miller hasn't beaten Purdue as the coach of the Hoosiers.
Most would also be surprised to know that Gene Keady actually had the H2H edge against Bobby Knight. It's narrow (I think he was one game above .500), but I think most casual fans would have thought that Knight led.
I’m actually very surprised by all of that
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Wow, things going very well so far in Urbana/Champaign for the Buckeyes!
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Cockburn is twice the size of Liddell, and thrice the size of everyone else.
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Whew.
Those last few minutes dragged on forever.
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Nice win by OSU. Bucks trying to bully their way into the top-4 discussion, and that's a good way to do it.
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Whew.
Those last few minutes dragged on forever.
It felt like time stopped.
In any event, heckuva nice win. OSU struggled with physicality last year, not so much this year. I was not optimistic because going against Illinois without a point guard or anything resembling a center seems like an uphill battle. But Liddell became the biggest matchup problem and turned in a great game. Not sure about being a top four team but better than I expected given how they played earlier in the season.
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It felt like time stopped.
In any event, heckuva nice win. OSU struggled with physicality last year, not so much this year. I was not optimistic because going against Illinois without a point guard or anything resembling a center seems like an uphill battle. But Liddell became the biggest matchup problem and turned in a great game. Not sure about being a top four team but better than I expected given how they played earlier in the season.
They're 14th in Kenpom, tied for fourth right now.
Granted, they've only had one game against another top-5 team thus far. They have five more. But they have one win.
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Man this conference. Minny putting the whomp on Michigan
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If they played the tournament in the Barn, Minnesota could win a national title.
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For the mid and low majors, if you have no fans in attendance, and you just want that ESPN paycheck to televise your championship game, why would you not just cancel the tournament and have the top two teams play each other
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For the mid and low majors, if you have no fans in attendance, and you just want that ESPN paycheck to televise your championship game, why would you not just cancel the tournament and have the top two teams play each other
Probably get some pushback from schools hoping to win the tournament and earn a berth.
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For the mid and low majors, if you have no fans in attendance, and you just want that ESPN paycheck to televise your championship game, why would you not just cancel the tournament and have the top two teams play each other
Does ESPN pay some pittance to stream the other games? Or televise them?
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Probably get some pushback from schools hoping to win the tournament and earn a berth.
Perhaps, but I can't imagine arguing against, keeping your revenue, while also advantaging your best team
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Flipped off the playoff game for a minute. UVA is beating Clemson 25-5 with 6:30 to play in the first half. Clemson is shooting 13% from the field.
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They're 14th in Kenpom, tied for fourth right now.
Granted, they've only had one game against another top-5 team thus far. They have five more. But they have one win.
What's crazy is they are sixth in offensive efficiency in the country, but looking at the roster you are trying to figure out who can score points. It feels like sorcery.
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Btw while this season is a grind, next season could be a dag basket of knives. I believe everyone gets a free year so every player can come back next year. The B1G is not heavy on NBA types - the Athletics current mock draft has 9 guys listed, but 8 in the second round. Teams like Wiscy and OSU could return every single guy.
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Btw while this season is a grind, next season could be a dag basket of knives. I believe everyone gets a free year so every player can come back next year. The B1G is not heavy on NBA types - the Athletics current mock draft has 9 guys listed, but 8 in the second round. Teams like Wiscy and OSU could return every single guy.
UW won't. They have two fifth year guys who did a year of prep school, one fifth-year guy who missed 1.5 years as a transfer, and a fourth-year guy who considered leaving last year. If they could get even Brad Davison back, it would be huge. Ford would also be nice if he felt like it.
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What's crazy is they are sixth in offensive efficiency in the country, but looking at the roster you are trying to figure out who can score points. It feels like sorcery.
They do a lot of stuff pretty well.
They're very good at not turning it over and getting to the line.
They're pretty good at offensive rebounding.
They're middling on 3s, better on 2s, but they hit their FTs, which is big when you get to the line so often.
The lineup is intersting. Liddle is efficent and Washington has been solid despite bad shooting. Young isS low-usage but super efficent. Sueing has been pretty good and the piece around them all work, plus some of the other low usage guys can hit 3s.
I'm not excited for them to come to Madison.
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Flipped off the playoff game for a minute. UVA is beating Clemson 25-5 with 6:30 to play in the first half. Clemson is shooting 13% from the field.
Virginia was offended that Clemson was #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency
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UW won't. They have two fifth year guys who did a year of prep school, one fifth-year guy who missed 1.5 years as a transfer, and a fourth-year guy who considered leaving last year. If they could get even Brad Davison back, it would be huge. Ford would also be nice if he felt like it.
Yeah, I think fewer guys are going to take advantage of it than you'd think. Those that do, may transfer to do so.
From a coaching perspective, you can only play so many guys, and some of them might struggle to figure out a rotation where 11 guys think they should play.
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UW won't. They have two fifth year guys who did a year of prep school, one fifth-year guy who missed 1.5 years as a transfer, and a fourth-year guy who considered leaving last year. If they could get even Brad Davison back, it would be huge. Ford would also be nice if he felt like it.
Nate? Not having a good year, but he's not coming back.
The NCAA will figure out a way to make Potter sit out another year.
Davison will be back, as will Anderson. Trice is 36 years old.
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I haven't tracked every team, just pointing out that it's going to be a weird year. OSU has three guys in CJ Walker, Jimmy Sotos, and Kyle Young who would otherwise be in their last year. Now, they...might be in their last year. OSU would only have one true point guard on the team next year, so Holtmann has a lot of motivation to tell Walker to stick around. Further, where are they going to go? No NBA team is interested in CJ Walker and for guys like Young and Walker do you want to have another year of college and basketball or maybe try to chase the G League or Euroball.
No doubt some guys will leave and some guys will get shoved out the door, but veteran teams might become really veteran teams next year. If everyone returned for OSU they would have 8 seniors. Wiscy (I think) starts five seniors and none of them have to leave.
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None of the UW seniors have announced intentions, except Nate Reuvers. He said he wasn't coming back before the season even started. Not sure where he thinks he's going, but it's not the NBA right now.
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None of the UW seniors have announced intentions, except Nate Reuvers. He said he wasn't coming back before the season even started. Not sure where he thinks he's going, but it's not the NBA right now.
Some people would rather travel Europe than add another degree right after their first. Wants to get away from the academy and have a real job!
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Nate? Not having a good year, but he's not coming back.
The NCAA will figure out a way to make Potter sit out another year.
Davison will be back, as will Anderson. Trice is 36 years old.
I think on the other board someone said Potter's is probably gonna jump because his stock is as high as it'll be.
Anderson, he'd be a Badger for 10 years. I'm hoping Brad makes that call, but I could see him looking to take a next step.
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I haven't tracked every team, just pointing out that it's going to be a weird year. OSU has three guys in CJ Walker, Jimmy Sotos, and Kyle Young who would otherwise be in their last year. Now, they...might be in their last year. OSU would only have one true point guard on the team next year, so Holtmann has a lot of motivation to tell Walker to stick around. Further, where are they going to go? No NBA team is interested in CJ Walker and for guys like Young and Walker do you want to have another year of college and basketball or maybe try to chase the G League or Euroball.
No doubt some guys will leave and some guys will get shoved out the door, but veteran teams might become really veteran teams next year. If everyone returned for OSU they would have 8 seniors. Wiscy (I think) starts five seniors and none of them have to leave.
I'm guessing a lot of guys might say $50,000 a year and no class is fine. Gotta remember, many aren't in college because it's a dream as much because it's the path. Walked will be 24 in March. Young could be more interesting.
I think it'll be much more interesting on the mid-major level and below. Most Big Ten starters can count on being able to play ball for decent money if they want. Less so at smaller schools.
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Wesson didn't even come back for one senior year, let alone two.
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Wesson didn't even come back for one senior year, let alone two.
He's got NBA dreams. Andre might have given it another go though.
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Nebraska basketball coach Fred Hoiberg announced Sunday that he tested positive for Covid-19 on Friday.
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Purdue at Ohio State tomorrow is interesting. Both are 5-3 and tied along with Illinois for 4/5/6 in the league. That is one half game behind third place Wisconsin and 1-1/2 games behind co-leaders Iowa and Michigan.
Both have very difficult next games. Purdue hosts the Wolverines while Ohio State travels to Madison.
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Wisconsin needs to get Reuvers going if it's going to make any noise. He is just in a bad funk right now.
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Nebraska basketball coach Fred Hoiberg announced Sunday that he tested positive for Covid-19 on Friday.
Took them awhile to get that test back from Chicago last March
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MSU has 3 more positive tests (walk on player and 2 staff members). Game next Saturday against Illinois is postponed
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Wisconsin needs to get Reuvers going if it's going to make any noise. He is just in a bad funk right now.
Yeah. Potter just isn't there fully on defense. But get center rolling, keep Trice as good as he's been, other guys chip in, should be a good team.
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Duke is unranked in The Associated Press men's basketball poll, falling from the Top 25 for the first time since Feb. 8, 2016.
The Blue Devils dropped to 5-3 overall and 3-1 in the ACC after losing to Virginia Tech. Their streak of 91 consecutive weeks in the Top 25 was second only to Kansas, which extended its record to 229 weeks. Gonzaga is now No. 2 at 87 weeks.
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Yeah. Potter just isn't there fully on defense. But get center rolling, keep Trice as good as he's been, other guys chip in, should be a good team.
Would have been nice for Jalen Johnson to have stayed home, instead of taking bait from Duke.
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Purdue at Ohio State tomorrow is interesting. Both are 5-3 and tied along with Illinois for 4/5/6 in the league. That is one half game behind third place Wisconsin and 1-1/2 games behind co-leaders Iowa and Michigan.
Both have very difficult next games. Purdue hosts the Wolverines while Ohio State travels to Madison.
Purdue is the type of team that could pretty much do anything here and it wouldn't surprise me. Win by 15? Sure. Lose by 15? Sure. Win the first half by 25, go down by 15 at the under 8 TO, then make it up to regain the lead and lose on a last-second buzzer beater OSU FG? Sure.
Such a young and inconsistent team. Flashes of greatness, flashes of crippling inexperience.
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From an Ohio State perspective, last time the Buckeyes were without Liddell, who is probably their best player and Seth Towns, who has slowly gotten more and more minutes. These guys combined for 37 points against Illinois, so having them should make a big difference. The Buckeyes will probably be without Sotos and Walker (#1 and #2 PGs) though who combined for 42 minutes against Purdue in the earlier meeting. I feel a little more confident about the missing PGs, since the Buckeyes were able to navigate the Illini chaos on Saturday.
The Buckeyes have been killing it from behind the arc the last few games, after being pretty awful the first few games of the Big Ten season. I think they're probably somewhere in the middle. If the Buckeyes don't shoot the lights out again, then I think this will be a very tense game and will go down to the wire. Purdue is a team that always seems to play the Buckeyes very tough.
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Wisconsin needs to get Reuvers going if it's going to make any noise. He is just in a bad funk right now.
Reuvers is neck and neck with Rocket Watts for biggest underachiever this year.
Sometimes going from Robin to Batman is hard
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Purdue is the type of team that could pretty much do anything here and it wouldn't surprise me. Win by 15? Sure. Lose by 15? Sure. Win the first half by 25, go down by 15 at the under 8 TO, then make it up to regain the lead and lose on a last-second buzzer beater OSU FG? Sure.
Such a young and inconsistent team. Flashes of greatness, flashes of crippling inexperience.
And that makes this two game set very interesting. Two wins are not impossible and that would put Purdue solidly in the top four in the league and in the running for the title. OTOH, two losses are also not impossible and that would set them back to .500 and clearly out of the running for the league title.
OhioState is in a similar situation. Beat Purdue then win in Madison and they are a serious contender, split and they are good, not great, lose both and there is a lot of work to do.
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Baylor looked pretty good tonight
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Baylor looked pretty good tonight
I tuned in mid 2nd, agree. Defensively really a problem from my amateur vantage. Bad beat for the betters of the world. Kind of a head scratcher whistle on the shot clock violation w 1.8 secs. Ball seemed turned over well before the 30sec hit zero. Enabled KU to get a 40footer off which they hit, versus a likely 70footer which they might not have even gotten off. BU wins by 8, number for many likely -8.5.
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1st half Baylor was very impressive, got the feeling they weren't as focused, especially on offense after halftime
seemed they were toying with Kansas, and Kansas is pretty good
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Standings and each team's games through this weekend with lines where posted on the Worldwide Leader's site:
- 6-1 Michigan: -10.5vsUMD, @PU
- 6-1 Iowa: vsIU,
- 5-2 Wisconsin: vsNU, vstOSU
- 5-3 Ohio State: -4.5vsPU, @UW
- 5-3 Illinois: -8.5vsPSU, @MSU
- 5-3 Purdue: +4.5@tOSU, vsM
- 4-4 Minnesota: vsUMD
- 3-4 Indiana: @IA, vsRU
- 3-5 Rutgers: @PSU, @IU
- 3-5 Northwestern: @UW, @PSU
- 2-4 Michigan State: vsIL
- 2-5 Maryland: +10.5@M, @MN
- 0-4 Penn State: +8.5@IL, vs RU, vsNU
- 0-5 Nebraska:
Co-leaders Michigan and Iowa will be easily favored so it will be hard for anyone to make up any ground.
The Badgers have two home games so that should help them keep on the pace. They will be a heavy favorite against the Wildcats and a favorite against the Buckeyes.
The Purdue/tOSU winner has a tough next game (vsM or @UW) but can really move up with a second win. The loser is in danger of falling out of the league title race for all practical purposes.
Illinois should win easily over PSU at home and if they can also win in East Lansing they can keep on the pace as well.
Minnesota should win at home to stay within three games of the leaders.
Indiana probably needs a win to have any prayer of staying in the league title chase. They are already three games behind the leaders and with a loss that would likely grow to 4.5 games out of first place.
Rutgers has fallen a long ways since they were 2-0 and in first place. Since then they are 1-5 and only their home loss to Iowa was close. PSU should be a good "get-right" game but after that the trip to Bloomington will be tough.
Northwestern started out 3-0 but since then they are 0-5 and now they have two road games coming up.
The Spartans have a bit of an unscheduled break due to COVID-19 and they need to use it to figure things out because right now they are in serious danger of seeing their tournament streak end this year.
Maryland is a bit of an enigma. Their two wins were in Madison and in Urbana so they can play at a high level. Their five losses were @PU, vsM, @IU, and vsIA so this team may be a lot better than their record. The schedule has to get easier, right?
Penn State has a chance to get off the mat with home games against Rutgers and Northwestern coming up. If they don't win either of those then they might not win this season outside of their games against:
Nebraska is winless and most of the games haven't even been close. Like the Spartans they are on an unscheduled COVID-19 break and when they come out of it they'll be hosting Penn State.
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Definitely more optimistic about OSU basketball than after the time they played Purdue. I remember thinking this team has no big people, and can't score. They still have no big people but they seem to have worked out the scoring. I have to think a team will try to put a bunch of pressure on them when they play with no point guard - we'll see if Purdue tries it.
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Definitely more optimistic about OSU basketball than after the time they played Purdue. I remember thinking this team has no big people, and can't score. They still have no big people but they seem to have worked out the scoring. I have to think a team will try to put a bunch of pressure on them when they play with no point guard - we'll see if Purdue tries it.
I thought Illinois did that and we handled it ok. Having Ahrens out there makes pressing a little scary as he can get a wide open 3 if you break it.
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Purdue has never really been a pressing team. Stifling halfcourt defense has always been their calling card.
If they wanted to pressure more, this might be the year to do it, because guard depth is stronger than most years. But I still haven't seen them press any more than one defender hassling the PG up the floor a bit... Never a full court trapping press.
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Purdue has never really been a pressing team. Stifling halfcourt defense has always been their calling card.
If they wanted to pressure more, this might be the year to do it, because guard depth is stronger than most years. But I still haven't seen them press any more than one defender hassling the PG up the floor a bit... Never a full court trapping press.
And the thing is, I don't think it works well to try it once in a while. There are teams that press all the time and they are really good at it because they practice it all the time. If you aren't one of those then doing it takes you out of your element and will probably backfire.
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And the thing is, I don't think it works well to try it once in a while. There are teams that press all the time and they are really good at it because they practice it all the time. If you aren't one of those then doing it takes you out of your element and will probably backfire.
Agreed 100%. Painter is NOT a coach that's just going to throw something out there that the team hasn't practiced extensively. It's one reason Purdue really never runs zone defense even when we're facing a team where it might match up better than man. He'd rather have his team perfect man defense to the point where they're stifling, than halfway practice man and halfway practice zone and be merely good at both.
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Reuvers is neck and neck with Rocket Watts for biggest underachiever this year.
Sometimes going from Robin to Batman is hard
They're both weird cases.
Watts strikes me as being a very good shooting guard who is just out of place running the show. BUT his assist to TO rate is not bad and his shooting has been abysmal.
Reuvers was gonna see his production drop this year no matter what because of rotation structures. But his 2-point shooting has fallen off a damn cliff, and his FT rate slipped a little. His rebounding has slipped a bit and even his shot blocking is down. And he's playing less.
It's annoying.
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Agreed 100%. Painter is NOT a coach that's just going to throw something out there that the team hasn't practiced extensively. It's one reason Purdue really never runs zone defense even when we're facing a team where it might match up better than man. He'd rather have his team perfect man defense to the point where they're stifling, than halfway practice man and halfway practice zone and be merely good at both.
And I completely agree with that approach. It is extremely rare for a team to be REALLY good at a lot of different things. It is much more practical to get to where you are REALLY good at a few things and then stick to those things. It will burn you from time to time, but I think your overall record will be much better that way.
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Hot shooting from deep continuing so far for the Buckeyes as they have 4 made threes and no other FGs so far. Purdue is getting what they want on the inside, though Williams just got his 2nd foul.
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Williams' propensity to foul is about the only thing really holding back his game.
He seems to spend a lot of the 1st half on the bench in a lot of games.
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Stories of the game so far...
- Purdue committing stupid fouls (fouling a 3pt shooter, Wheeler with an over the back followed by a bad charge the next possession, Williams taking himself out of the game with two early fouls).
- OSU splashing damn near everything from deep (and the opposite from Purdue).
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Fun first half. Buckeyes will need to make some adjustments to get some easier baskets, because I doubt the 3s will keep falling at this rate. Purdue may have found something with slashing guards and early offense there at the end of the half. They will have to be careful inside though with both bigs in foul trouble.
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At the half.
Purdue:
- 2pt FG: 10-14, for 71.4%
- 3pt FG: 2-12, for 16.7%
- Overall FG: 46.2%
OSU:
- 2pt FG: 2-7, for 28.6%
- 3pt FG: 9-22, for 42.9%
- Overall FG: 39.3%
It's not usually the case that you see a team's 3pt FG% higher than their overall FG% or higher than their 2pt FG%, but I guess if you're making them at 42.9%, might as well keep shooting them, right?
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Yeah usually those 2s come from Young, Key, and Liddell. They've had an unusually quiet first half. Obviously some credit goes to the Boiler defense for that.
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Watching OSU trying to defend Williams and Edey is painful. They are shooting a lot of threes and they are good looks, but you have to think Purdue tightens up there in the second half.
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Anyone know the OSU record for most made 3s in a game? I think they might make it there.
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Wow 5 fouls in the first 4 minutes of the half. Pretty bad way to start the 2nd.
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Anyone know the OSU record for most made 3s in a game? I think they might make it there.
Had a hard time finding it. As of 2015, it was 18.
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Refs not having their finest hour on these jump ball calls
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Had a hard time finding it. As of 2015, it was 18.
Yeah I took a quick glance. Not as easy to find as the football records for whatever reason.
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After a really fun first half, this 2nd half has been a trip to the dentist.
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Ah this is the OSU Purdue basketball I know and love
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Welp
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Purdue outplayed the Buckeyes.
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So, Purdue?
Not missing Nojel too mich
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So, Purdue?
Not missing Nojel too mich
It's the trade of not having his defensive presence vs playing 4 on 5 offensively.
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So, Purdue?
Not missing Nojel too mich
Man that dude. Decided to transfer, chose Michigan but couldn't get in. Then chose Howard, then opted out. Pretty much just wasted a year when he'd probably be getting some pretty good looks on Purdue this year.
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Purdue is a young talented team growing up. Much different team when the steady presence of williams is on the floor though. He opens it up. Edey will be a load in a year, but his transition to conference play has been rough.
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Man that dude. Decided to transfer, chose Michigan but couldn't get in. Then chose Howard, then opted out. Pretty much just wasted a year when he'd probably be getting some pretty good looks on Purdue this year.
I can't recall why he was mad enough at Purdue to leave. I suppose if Michigan had been able to take him, it wouldn't looked not bad right now.
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MSU winning on the road against Duke is making more and more sense by the day
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I can't recall why he was mad enough at Purdue to leave. I suppose if Michigan had been able to take him, it wouldn't looked not bad right now.
He was listening to bad advice... From his mom.
She thought he was NBA ready, and that Painter and his system wasn't showcasing him enough.
So he transferred to Michigan, then to Howard, then opted out to prepare for the NBA draft after Makur got injured.
We'll see how that works out for him.
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He was listening to bad advice... From his mom.
She thought he was NBA ready, and that Painter and his system wasn't showcasing him enough.
So he transferred to Michigan, then to Howard, then opted out to prepare for the NBA draft after Makur got injured.
We'll see how that works out for him.
He's a long, athletic defender, who is a net negative on offense, and has a weird impression of his own skill set. He dropped MSU, because they told him he wasn't a PG.
I see him having a few years in the G League, and coming up on 10 day contracts, and then settling in Europe
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He was listening to bad advice... From his mom.
She thought he was NBA ready, and that Painter and his system wasn't showcasing him enough.
So he transferred to Michigan, then to Howard, then opted out to prepare for the NBA draft after Makur got injured.
We'll see how that works out for him.
One of his last acts was chasing Wisconsin's second-leading scorer off the team and eventually out of the sport.
Also, the obsession with "showcasing" is always weird. NBA teams draft off potential so much. Getting showcased with his skill set is a great way to show teams where he's VERY weak.
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I wasn't able to see the PU/tOSU game last night but it looks like I'm better off for that, ugh.
The Buckeyes led nearly the entire game but fell short late. From the play-by-play:
- Back and forth for the first ~12 minutes until 21-21 with 7:24 to go in the first.
- 11-0 tOSU run in about two minutes gave the Buckeyes their largest lead at 32-21 with 5:21 to go.
- 10-5 PU run to close the first half at 37-31 Buckeyes.
- Back and forth for the first ~11 minutes of the second half such that the Buckeyes still led by five (50-45) from 9:27 until 8:17 left in the game.
- 7-0 PU run gave the Boilermakers their first lead since early in the first half at 52-50 with 6:19 remaining.
- 10-2 run gave the Buckeyes at six point lead at 60-54 with just 3:35 to go.
- 13-5 Boilermaker run to close the game at 67-65.
Everything from 60-54 Buckeyes with 3:35 to go:
- PU hit a three, 60-57 Buckeyes
- tOSU turnover.
- PU hit a bucket, 60-59 Buckeyes
- tOSU miss.
- tOSU ORB.
- Foul on PU.
- tOSU made FT, 61-59 Buckeyes
- tOSU missed FT.
- tOSU ORB.
- tOSU hit a three, 64-59 Buckeyes with 2:08 to go.
- PU hit a bucket, 64-61 Buckeyes with 1:48 to go.
- tOSU miss.
- tOSU ORB.
- tOSU turnover.
- PU three, 64 all with 0:52 to go.
- tOSU miss.
- PU three, 67-64 PU with 0:02 to go.
- PU Foul.
- tOSU made FT, 67-65 PU.
- tOSU missed FT (I assume this was intentional).
- PU rebound.
- Game, 67-65 PU.
That would have been incredibly frustrating to watch!
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Not great but also not as excruciating as the end of the Illinois game
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What was interesting was Jaden Ivey. I really like this kid.
Clearly he has the green light from Painter to shoot 3s, because he went 0-4 in the first half, despite the fact that his season 3FG% is 21.2%. Painter isn't going to give you minutes like that if you're doing the opposite of what he's told you.
But then in that last 3:35 he made his only two other 3pt attempts (one at 3:12 to get to 57-60 and then one with 5 seconds left to put Purdue ahead for good, 67-64, and made another 2pt jumper in between). Absolute daggers, all of them, from a true frosh.
As I've said, this team is young and inexperienced, and I think they'll be too inconsistent to actually challenge for the league title this year. But this is a team that could surprise someone in March, and I think the 2021-22 team, especially with the recruits coming in, is going to be the conference favorite.
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Really this is just mostly for my benefit but sharing it here:
Ohio State against B1G teams (record / team / tOSU record against / where / where remaining):
- 7-1 Michigan: 0-0, vs
- 6-1 Iowa: 0-0, @ vs
- 5-2 Wisconsin: 0-0, @
- 6-3 Purdue: 0-2
- 6-3 Illinois: 1-0 @, vs
- 4-4 Minnesota: 0-1 @
- 3-4 Indiana: 0-0, vs
- 3-5 Rutgers: 2-0
- 3-5 Northwestern: 1-1
- 2-4 Michigan State: 0-0, @ vs
- 2-6 Maryland: 0-0, @
- 0-5 Nebraska: 1-0 vs
- 0-5 Penn State: 0-0, @ vs(maybe, postponed)
So the Buckeyes are:
- 1-3 against teams .500 or better with five games remaining.
- 4-1 against teams <.500 with six or seven remaining.
The Buckeyes appear to have a ridiculously easy schedule relative to the league. The games not played are:
- @ 7-1 Michigan
- vs 5-2 Wisconsin
- vs 4-4 Minnesota
- @ 3-4 Indiana
- @ 0-5 Nebraska
- Possibly vs 0-5 Penn State
My guess:
- 5-4 current record
- 1-4 in the five games against M, IA, UW, and IL
- 1-2 in the three games against IU and MSU (I just can't see MSU as an easy game)
- 1-1 or 2-1 in the two or three games against UMD and PSU
- 8-11 or 9-11
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What was interesting was Jaden Ivey. I really like this kid.
Clearly he has the green light from Painter to shoot 3s, because he went 0-4 in the first half, despite the fact that his season 3FG% is 21.2%. Painter isn't going to give you minutes like that if you're doing the opposite of what he's told you.
But then in that last 3:35 he made his only two other 3pt attempts (one at 3:12 to get to 57-60 and then one with 5 seconds left to put Purdue ahead for good, 67-64, and made another 2pt jumper in between). Absolute daggers, all of them, from a true frosh.
As I've said, this team is young and inexperienced, and I think they'll be too inconsistent to actually challenge for the league title this year. But this is a team that could surprise someone in March, and I think the 2021-22 team, especially with the recruits coming in, is going to be the conference favorite.
He must. I was sure we would lose when Purdue had the ball and it was tied, given that we couldn't defend the big guys. That their final shot was that shot was crazy and shows the coach likes the kid a heck of a lot.
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He must. I was sure we would lose when Purdue had the ball and it was tied, given that we couldn't defend the big guys. That their final shot was that shot was crazy and shows the coach likes the kid a heck of a lot.
He has more faith in the kid than the fans did.
There is a thread on the Rivals Purdue board entitled "No No No.......YES!"
Purdue is now just 1 game down to OSU on the all time series record. If / When Purdue wins two more games against OSU, they will be back to having a winning record against every team in the Big Ten.
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UW has NW today. This always worries me. I’m also annoyed the game got moved up.
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He has more faith in the kid than the fans did.
There is a thread on the Rivals Purdue board entitled "No No No.......YES!"
Purdue is now just 1 game down to OSU on the all time series record. If / When Purdue wins two more games against OSU, they will be back to having a winning record against every team in the Big Ten.
That's what I find so great about it... On Hammer & Rails people were talking about cringing every time they see him pull up for 3. And as I pointed out, he's 21.2% from deep so far on the season. He went 0-4 in the first half.
But under 4 minutes to play, in clutch situations, on the road, as a true frosh, he swishes two daggers?
#money
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MSU going on pause is killing me. Signing in late, after I had written the football season off, completely checked me out of the football season. But I was giving hoops a go. I had always assumed a level of interest independent of MSU, as I had as a UM basketball fan through high school, but it's hard to care with MSU maybe, possibly done? I'm finding myself watching more NBA. I even bought League Pass.
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Badgers with a comfy win. Huge home game with OSU this Saturday. Nate still struggling. Kinda uneven game.
On to the next, another one in a stretch in which UW needs to run up some wins.
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MSU going on pause is killing me. Signing in late, after I had written the football season off, completely checked me out of the football season. But I was giving hoops a go. I had always assumed a level of interest independent of MSU, as I had as a UM basketball fan through high school, but it's hard to care with MSU maybe, possibly done? I'm finding myself watching more NBA. I even bought League Pass.
hang in there
try to keep it together
don't do anything crazy
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Matt Norlander had a piece today about conference tournaments, saying about 30% of the major college coaches he's talked to don't believe they should happen this year, with the quick turnaround, and that some are considering to opt out and quarantine, to ensure they are good to go for the NCAA tournament, 4 days later.
That could lead to a situation where a bunch of "safe" teams opt out, and then you have conference tournaments between nothing but bid stealers.
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so, you're saying Nebraska has a chance
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Matt Norlander had a piece today about conference tournaments, saying about 30% of the major college coaches he's talked to don't believe they should happen this year, with the quick turnaround, and that some are considering to opt out and quarantine, to ensure they are good to go for the NCAA tournament, 4 days later.
That could lead to a situation where a bunch of "safe" teams opt out, and then you have conference tournaments between nothing but bid stealers.
so, you're saying Nebraska has a chance
Nah, that's supposedly "major" college coaches.
I assume you won't see any 1-bid league teams opting out, because they're never "safe".
And at the major conference level, like the B1G, you might see "safe" teams opting out, but in a league as strong as the B1G this year you'll probably have a number of teams that would be on the bubble, not "bid stealers".
The on the bubble teams would be even more incentivized to play in the conference tourney to move from bubble to automatic bid. And even more incentivized not to have a bad loss to Nebraska on their resume.
This change would be good for one bubble team from each conference IMHO, and bad for all other bubble teams in case a bid stealer manages to get lucky enough to get through in other conferences.
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being on the bubble and taking a bad loss to Nebraska is worst case
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Bwahahaha
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsSdBAjUwAACi6a?format=jpg&name=medium)
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rough 2nd half for the Hawkeyes
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rough 2nd half for the Hawkeyes
They went 10 min or so without scoring.
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heck they had a stretch at the end of the first half they didn't score a basket
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My take on Purdue, ~halfway through the season:
Bigs:
Trevion Williams: As advertised. Scoring, rebounding, good passing. Despite not having quite the vertical size of some of the players in the conference at the 5 spot, he's got plenty of bulk to bang in the paint, a huge wingspan, giant hands to pass one-handed or corral rebounds, and some nifty postmoves. On the negative side, he gets a little cheap with his fouls, which has caused him to spend WAY too much time on the bench, particularly in the first half of games. Purdue to some point has been as "2nd half" team this year, and maybe that's based on the split between the minutes Tre gets per half... Grade: B+ - an "A" on the court, but knocked down because fouling takes him off it too often.
Zach Edey: 9 straight years for Purdue having a 7 footer on the roster, and he's the tallest player in Purdue history at 7'4". Coming into the year, it was thought he might be a major project. He only started playing basketball midway through high school, when the Canadian realized that he'd be too tall for hockey or baseball, his first choices. IMHO he has the highest ceiling of any of Purdue's 7 footers, because he's in between Haas and Haarms--more mobile than Haas but not as willowy as Haarms. In the non-con, he looked like an instant impact guy, but has hit a bit of a freshman wall as we've reached conference play. Still, he's been a serviceable replacement for the 5 when Tre is on the bench, and that's enough to expect out of him this year. Grade: B - on a curve due to his youth, he's met and slightly exceeded expectations
Overall: Purdue continues to be "Big Man U", with a Jr who will likely show up somewhere on the All-B1G list even if not first team (Garza will surely be there), and a promising backup who I guarantee teams will fear next year and beyond.
Forwards:
Aaron Wheeler: The RS Junior flashed a lot in the 2018-19 season in his first action, showing an unguardable 3 pt shot due to his height, a tenacity for grabbing rebounds, and opportunistic scoring with rebounds, put-backs, and the occasional "WTF how did he do that?" athletic plays out of nowhere. 2019-20 was a major step back as we all were hoping for a step forward. At 6'9" with the ability to leap out of the arena, we all hoped to see him develop a 3-level offensive game, but it turned into a zero-level offensive game as the 3pt shot completely left him. This year he's moderately improved, showing a little more bulk on his frame, a higher understanding of the offense and defense, and at least a return to making some shots from deep. Major strength is rebounding, particularly important when Edey is on the floor rather than Tre because Edey isn't a great rebounder despite his size. Grade: B- - He should be owning the position as an upperclassman, but is merely functional.
Mason Gillis: Gillis basically lost most of his Jr and Sr years in HS due to injury, and then spent a redshirt year because he wasn't quite ready to get on the court after spending so much time unable to play. All last year Painter said he was one of the hardest workers in practice, and that work paid off. He's an ultimate "glue guy" player. High BBIQ like Grady Eifert, but with a lot more strength and athleticism. Not quite the offensive game of someone like a Vince Edwards, but makes up for it in rebounding and effort plays. Grade: B+ - Nobody knew what they'd get with him away from the game so long, but he's been a bright spot.
Overall: The 4, ever since Vince Edwards graduated, has been Purdue's weakest spot on the floor, which hurts as having a competent 4 is a huge bonus for Painter's scheme. Next year Purdue brings in two big men, Caleb Furst and Trey Kaufman, both of whom can play the 4, and are very highly rated recruits (although one's more of a tweener 3/4 while the other is a tweener 4/5 from my understanding). So there's a chance that one of the true freshman starts most of next year, because neither Wheeler nor Gillis has shown a commanding ownership of the position thus far this year.
Shooting Guards / Wings:
Sasha Stefanovich: The RS Junior continues what he does best, splashing from deep. This year he's excised one of his biggest complaints from last year, a huge split between shooting percentage at home vs on the road. He leads the Big Ten in 3FG% and is 4th in made 3s per game. He has one of the quickest shooting releases I've ever seen, making him especially hard to guard coming off screens. He also shows a knack for drawing charges--likely leads the team. This year, much like Ryan Cline eventually developed, he's showing a little more "go to the rim" mentality. While it'll never be a huge part of his game, that teams need to respect it makes him even more dangerous. Grade: A - Does his job, does it better than anyone in the conference, and works defenses until they're exhausted trying to chase him around screens.
Brandon Newman: The RS Frosh sat out last year because apparently he'd never heard of defense, and Painter has changed that. He's a very good player now all over the court, with good length and athleticism, good shooting, and a reliable starter. He's had some absolute blow-up games, but also some games where he's disappeared. Grade: A- - All-around good player, and above expectations for a freshman.
Jaden Ivey: This true freshman is one of the most exciting players Purdue's had, with some of the fearlessness of Carsen Edwards in a much taller, longer, very athletic package. He's flashed really amazing ability to go to the rim, to finish through contact. He's done less well with his FT and his 3pt shooting, but as we saw against Ohio State, dude has ice in his veins as the clock starts winding down. His future is very bright. Grade: A - Has already shown an ability to bring things to the game FAR beyond what Purdue could ever expect out of a true frosh.
Overall: Very exciting position for the Boilermakers, but one that is probably a year away from being terrifying to the rest of the conference. They're growing up fast, though, and with guard play being incredibly important in March, this is a team that could show up at the right time and get farther in the tournament than they have any expectation to do.
Point Guards:
Eric Hunter Jr: I put him in the PG territory despite the fact that he's more of a SG. I do so because even though it's not his natural role, he's the team's best point guard. He plays the role out of necessity, but handles it well. Hunter is a decent 3 point shooter and opportunistic scorer, leads the team in assists, and is a surprisingly tenacious defender--also leads the team in steals. He's been a little up and down as a scorer, but he's steady enough all over the floor that he's second on the team in minutes per game. Grade: B+ - Scoring hasn't been as great as we'd like to see, and a few too many turnovers, but he's doing everything he needs to do to help this team at a position of need.
Isaiah Thompson: Sophomore and younger brother of PJ Thompson, Isaiah sadly seems to be in over his head at this point. Purdue fans were excited when he came in because he seemed like he could be a better version of PJ, who was very reliable, as he had a little more height and was more highly rated. But it hasn't really turned into production. He's slight, and doesn't really have the strength necessary at this level. He doesn't handle the press well bringing the ball up the court. He can shoot the three ball when left open, but he's not showing natural scoring ability--and doesn't have the toughness to go to the rim through contact. And his lack of strength hurts him on the defensive end. Grade: C- - He's good enough to get minutes, but as the natural PG still sits as Hunter's backup, with Ethan Morton potentially ready to jump him on the depth chart in the future.
Ethan Morton: True frosh, described by Painter as the best passer he's ever seen. Previous best passer Painter has had is Dakota Mathias, so this is high praise from Matt. He came into the season (also like Mathias as a frosh) recovering from a case of mono. His transition to the college game has not come naturally, so we don't really know what to make of him. In HS, he was a three-level scorer who was unselfish and would look for the opportunity to distribute. So far... We haven't seen it. I see him having a higher ceiling than Isaiah, and more naturally fit to the PG position than Hunter, but he's going to need some seasoning. I think if it weren't this COVID season, he very well may have redshirt this year. Grade: C - Still trying to find his feet and transition to the college game.
Overall: When your best player at a position isn't actually that a natural fit at that position, it's not a great sign. That said, EH Jr is a heck of a PG, and Matt Painter's motion offense doesn't require a PG in the mold of Cassius Winston to run. You need someone who can bring the ball up and initiate the offense--hence why Nojel Eastern was able to be our "PG" for 3 years. With Hunter, we're good enough at this position for 2020-21, but most Boiler fans are looking forward to Morton getting some time under his belt and taking over next year, allowing Hunter to be the backup PG while earning more minutes at SG where he's more naturally fit.
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Sasha out 17 days due to covid.
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https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1353022791596060678?s=19
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Purdue got pretty soundly beaten by the Wolverines yesterday.
Missing Sasha is a big blow against a team that talented, but even with him on the court I'll bet it turns a 17-point loss into a 9-10 point loss. I was fully expecting a loss even before hearing he was out, but I'm sure it made it even worse.
He's a very important part of the offense, sometimes more for what he does off the ball than what he does shooting threes. Hopefully against the weaker competition we'll be facing in the next few games, we can weather his absence.
And it goes without saying that we all hope he's not impacted by COVID symptoms or long-term damage.
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Oh great. So first you beat OSU, then you lose to Michigan?
If I didn't know better, I'd suspect that Painter was just trying to screw with me, specifically.
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Well if you'd asked me the odds before the games, I probably would have said that the likelihood of beating OSU on the road would be higher than beating Michigan at home. Michigan is just killing it this year.
But I like the "Matt Painter is trolling a random message board user" idea as well.
So, 6 in one, half a dozen in the other...
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Heh. More like half of one and six dozen of the other.
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good game in Norman, OK
Jayhawks down 6 under 6
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I tuned in to the BU/OkSU because I saw that the 🤠 Cowboys were up 50-48.
By the time I got the game on Baylor was up a few points and now they are up 65-51.
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Gophers just went down at home
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They didn't give the record but CBS said that this is the 168th meeting between the Buckeyes and Badgers who have been playing each other this sport since 1905.
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UW looking rocky early, though an odd kick out foul that wiped away a UW 3 changes things a bit.
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Not the most beautiful first half I've seen
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This is not pleasant, though OSU is hitting a lot of somewhat tough shots, so good on them. UW is not.
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I know how this ends :(
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UW got it down to four, missed open 3, foul to give up 2, missed open 3, short jumper.
Dunzo.
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Instant replay is an absolute soul killer to sports
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I know how this ends :(
Apparently not.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Esc_Rh1XcAA11Um?format=jpg&name=small)
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Nice win for the Bucks, CJ Walker came back and looked a bit more aggressive, which is good. Badgers were ice cold from three, which helped the cause.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Esc_Rh1XcAA11Um?format=jpg&name=small)
You missed a game in between this one and the game last weekend. You know, just as a FYI....
;)
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Yeah I only do the wins, and I miss some of them too.
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many top 25 teams upset today
guessing Florida St will move into the poll
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It certainly seems like this year is a bunch of random results, with only Gonzaga, Baylor, and maybe Michigan and Villanova being legitimately good. Everyone else is just whatever
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crazy season, similar to football
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https://twitter.com/totally_t_bomb/status/1353121340279164928?s=19
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crazy season, similar to football
Eh? Is it?
I don't think we'll get a Final 4 of Duke, Kentucky, UCLA and Kansas, which is basically what football gave us. Hell, the biggest names are the ones doing the worst
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https://twitter.com/totally_t_bomb/status/1353121340279164928?s=19
It is weird. Prior to the PU and UW games I would have ranked the likelihood of outcomes as:
- Win vs PU, lose at UW
- Lose both
- Win both
- Lose vs PU, win at UW
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Uh oh
https://twitter.com/michigandaily/status/1353171364908310528?s=19
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That OSU game was unpleasant. UW made a mess of things on offense, just not great (also that one stupid call).
UW even forced generally a lot of the shots they want, and OSU just hit em. The Buckeyes were 59.5 percent on 2s, 71 percent on 2s outside the paint. I'd be more mad, but not much counter to that.
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That OSU game was unpleasant. UW made a mess of things on offense, just not great (also that one stupid call).
UW even forced generally a lot of the shots they want, and OSU just hit em. The Buckeyes were 59.5 percent on 2s, 71 percent on 2s outside the paint. I'd be more mad, but not much counter to that.
That's probably the special sauce in OSU's offense - they are too small to consistently bang in the paint and at least early in the season weren't shooting the three well, but Liddell's midrange game carried them through. Seth Towns has some old man game too.
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That's probably the special sauce in OSU's offense - they are too small to consistently bang in the paint and at least early in the season weren't shooting the three well, but Liddell's midrange game carried them through. Seth Towns has some old man game too.
OSU is 10th nationally in long 2 shooting percentage. Bucks are 79th in how often the shoot those shots, which are generally considered bad. It's a nice bit of stat bending.
Liddell's lone 3 was also maddeningly well timed.
One update since I found the numbers
OSU was 47 percent at the rim, 70 percent on non-rim 2s, 31.1 percent from 3. Also got to the line at a slightly above average rate.
That rim number is just awful. Bleh.
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BTW has the B1G said anything about making up games? OSU isn't scheduled for a week, but PSU's schedule opened up because they were scheduled to play Michigan on Wednesday. Seems like a good place to put in a makeup game if they are trying to do that.
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To answer my own question, Bucks playing PSU Wednesday now
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Rutgers!
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Almost half way through the league season, gaps larger than one game in the standings are:
- First place Michigan (8-1) is 1.5 games ahead of second place Iowa (6-2).
- Fifth/sixth place PU and tOSU are 1.5 games ahead of seventh/eighth place MN and IU.
With those exceptions, every team is within a game or less of both the team ahead of them and the team behind them.
Michigan is on a pause due to COVID-19 and by the time they get back to playing they may have a prohibitive lead in the league.
Standings and games through next weekend:
- 8-1 Michigan, no games.
- 6-2 Iowa, @IL.
- 6-3 Wisconsin, @UMD, @PSU.
- 6-3 Illinois, vsIA.
- 6-4 Purdue, vsMN.
- 6-4 Ohio State, vsPSU, vsMSU.
- 4-5 Minnesota, @PU.
- 4-5 Indiana, no games.
- 4-6 Rutgers, vsMSU, @NU.
- 2-4 Michigan State, @RU, @tOSU.
- 3-6 Maryland, vsUW.
- 3-7 Northwestern, vsRU.
- 2-5 Penn State, @tOSU, vsUW.
- 0-5 Nebraska, no games.
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Cool, MSU just has to come off a 2 week break without practicing, and beat a pair of good teams on the road to salvage their tourney streak. Should be fun.
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Cool, MSU just has to come off a 2 week break without practicing, and beat a pair of good teams on the road to salvage their tourney streak. Should be fun.
The COVID-19 pause just sucked for MSU timing wise. They just missed two straight home games (IU, IL) and now they have two straight road games (RU, tOSU). Played as scheduled that is no big deal but with the pause knocking out the home games well, it sucks for MSU.
The Worldwide Leader's latest Bracketology lists MSU as one of the last four in, playing Stanford for an 11-seed.
At this point the teams closest to the cut-line are MSU and UMD followed closely by RU and IU.
I don't think this is a make-or-break week for the Spartans. A win in either game would help but a loss in either game would be a "good loss". After that MSU has back-to-back home games against Nebraska and Penn State. Those are close to "must-win" territory simply because either would obviously be a bad loss. IMHO, the four games after that will determine MSU's fate:
- vs Iowa on Saturday, February 13
- at Purdue on Tuesday, February 16
- at Indiana on Saturday, February 20
- vs Ohio State on Thursday, February 25
As I see it, those are four games that could plausibly go either way.
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Speaking of Bracketology, here are all of the B1G teams listed:
- #1 Michigan
- #2 Wisconsin, Iowa
- #4 Ohio State, Illinois
- #5 Minnesota
- #7 Purdue
- #10 Indiana (last four byes)
- #11 Rutgers (last four byes), Michigan State (last four in)
- First four out Maryland
- Not listed Northwestern, Penn State, Nebraska
FWIW, that allocation of teams/seeds would yield on average:
- 6.66 R64 winners
- 4 S16 teams
- 2.18 E8 teams
- 1.12 F4 teams
- 0.49 NCG teams
- 0.25 National Champions
If anybody wants to see the math behind that, I can show it.
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FWIW, chances to make the S16 by seed:
- 6 in 7
- a little under 3 in 5
- a little over 1 in 2
- a little under 1 in 2
- 1 in 3
- a little under 1 in 3
- a little under 1 in 5
- a little under 1 in 10
- 1 in 20
- a little over 1 in 6
- a little over 1 in 6
- a little under 1 in 7
- a little over 1 in 23
- a little under 1 in 70
- a little over 1 in 140
- hasn't happened
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SoS rankings nationally and within the B1G per BPI:
- #1 Penn State
- #2 Northwestern
- #4 Rutgers
- #9 Purdue
- #12 Maryland
- #14 Maryland
- #15 Indiana
- #19 Illinois
- #32 Ohio State
- #39 Wisconsin
- #40 Nebraska
- #46 Iowa
- #51 Michigan
- #78 Michigan State
Michigan State's is as low as it is simply because they have less conference games than the others to balance off their early OOC games. Right now four of their 12 games were against minor in-state schools (EMU, WMU, Detroit Mercy, Oakland) and another was against Nebraska.
I'm guessing that the cut-line in the B1G this year is going to be right around .500 overall. If you look at the four bubble teams (from above) their records (conference and overall) are:
- 4-5/9-7 Indiana (last four byes)
- 4-6/8-6 Rutgers (last four byes)
- 2-4/8-4 Michigan State (last four in)
- 3-6/9-7 Maryland (first four out)
Michigan State has 10 games left on the schedule plus four postponed games that may or may not be rescheduled plus the B1G Tournament. I'd rank the 10 remaining in order from most likely win to most likely loss as:
- vs UNL
- vs PSU
- vs tOSU
- @ UMD
- @ IU
- @ RU
- vs Iowa
- @ tOSU
- @ PU
- @ M
The four games that could potentially be rescheduled are (same order):
Then they will most likely start the BTT on Thursday (seeded 5-10) or possibly Wednesday (seeded 11-14). In theory it is better to be a top-10 seed and not start until Thursday but if they are close to the 10/11 line they would probably be better off to fall to #11. That gets them an easy Wednesday win over #14 then a Thursday game against #7.
Example based on current standings:
If the BTT started tomorrow, MSU would be the #11 seed, their games would be:
Wednesday vs #14 Nebraska
Thursday vs #6 tOSU (tOSU loses H2H tiebreaker with PU for 5/6)
Friday vs #3 IL (IL wins tie for 3/4 with UW based on record against PU)
Saturday vs #2 IA (or #7 or #10).
If they magically passed Maryland for the #10 slot their games would be:
Thursday vs #7 MN (MN wins 7/8 tie with IU based on record against M)
Friday vs #2 Iowa
Saturday vs #3 IL (or #6 or #11 or #14)
I don't think their games this week are "must win" because I think that they probably only need to win about five or six more games and the games this week are their sixth and eighth most likely wins.
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Nah, that's supposedly "major" college coaches.
I assume you won't see any 1-bid league teams opting out, because they're never "safe".
And at the major conference level, like the B1G, you might see "safe" teams opting out, but in a league as strong as the B1G this year you'll probably have a number of teams that would be on the bubble, not "bid stealers".
The on the bubble teams would be even more incentivized to play in the conference tourney to move from bubble to automatic bid. And even more incentivized not to have a bad loss to Nebraska on their resume.
This change would be good for one bubble team from each conference IMHO, and bad for all other bubble teams in case a bid stealer manages to get lucky enough to get through in other conferences.
Andy Katz asked Mark Few about it, and he would not commit to playing in the WCC tourney, basically saying they still need to evaluate a lot of factors.
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Andy Katz asked Mark Few about it, and he would not commit to playing in the WCC tourney, basically saying they still need to evaluate a lot of factors.
Almost no upside for the Zags to play in that, and if they get an outbreak right before the real tourney, considerable downside.
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Almost no upside for the Zags to play in that, and if they get an outbreak right before the real tourney, considerable downside.
Right, so is the WCC now a 2 bid league? How does the committee treat that?
I would say the only upside would be the WCC tournament is a week early (usually), so by skipping it, the Zags would enter the NCAA tourney on a 2 week break
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not sure a 2 week break is a good thing
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it's bad when it happens to MSU, but it would behoove the Zags.
not sure a 2 week break is a good thing
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Right, so is the WCC now a 2 bid league? How does the committee treat that?
I would say the only upside would be the WCC tournament is a week early (usually), so by skipping it, the Zags would enter the NCAA tourney on a 2 week break
Yeah, but how many conferences have a situation like the Zags?
KenPom only has 3 teams in the top 30 from non-power conferences. Zags at #1, Houston at #6, and Loyola Chicago at #21. The NET rankings have more, but I suspect that any conference losses for some of those teams will dramatically drop them down the rankings, as they'll be tier 3 or tier 4 losses.
I'd venture to say that anyone beyond 30 will probably be punished by the committee for not participating in the conference tournament. And any losses going forward for Loyola will probably drop them out of the top 30 in KenPom.
So we have maybe two potential bid-stealers, in the WCC and the American conferences? BYU wouldn't be a horrible auto-bid, and the American has quite a few teams in the top 100 of KenPom right now, so it's possible that Houston could get upset in their conference tourney, one of those teams make the auto-bid, and Houston still get in. The American isn't even what I'd call a one-bid league.
So I don't think it'll be a problem. There's maybe one or two teams in the entire country from one-bid leagues who can get in without an auto-bid.
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it's bad when it happens to MSU, but it would behoove the Zags.
Would it? I don't think it's good for anyone. I wonder if Gonzaga would try to schedule someone during that break, just as a one off?
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not sure a 2 week break is a good thing
I meant the only upside to playing in it. Sam had said it was almost all downside, which I agree with, but the one upside is not having that much down time.
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at least they would still be practicing
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at least they would still be practicing
Yeah, not all breaks are created equal. And hell, Gonzaga might get better competition in a split squad scrimmage than playing Santa Clara.
But I still think 2 weeks off would be a disadvantage, absent an injured player getting healthy
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Don't they generally get two bids? Seems like BYU pops up on the bracket most years.
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MSU podcast I was listening to wanted to remind everyone that Foster Loyer, as a junior, basically single-handidly beat Xavier Tillman and Duane Washington's team in the state championship.
That is all
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Yeah, but how many conferences have a situation like the Zags?
KenPom only has 3 teams in the top 30 from non-power conferences. Zags at #1, Houston at #6, and Loyola Chicago at #21. The NET rankings have more, but I suspect that any conference losses for some of those teams will dramatically drop them down the rankings, as they'll be tier 3 or tier 4 losses.
I'd venture to say that anyone beyond 30 will probably be punished by the committee for not participating in the conference tournament. And any losses going forward for Loyola will probably drop them out of the top 30 in KenPom.
So we have maybe two potential bid-stealers, in the WCC and the American conferences? BYU wouldn't be a horrible auto-bid, and the American has quite a few teams in the top 100 of KenPom right now, so it's possible that Houston could get upset in their conference tourney, one of those teams make the auto-bid, and Houston still get in. The American isn't even what I'd call a one-bid league.
So I don't think it'll be a problem. There's maybe one or two teams in the entire country from one-bid leagues who can get in without an auto-bid.
Testing your theory using the Worldwide Leader's BPI top-30:
The top-30 currently consists of:
- 6 B12, #1 Baylor, #8 TxTech, #13 TX, #17 OU, #19 WVU, #20 KU,
- 6 B1G, #3 IA, #7 M, #9 IL, #14 UW, #15 tOSU, #26 IU
- 5 SEC, #10 TN, #16 Bama, #21 UF, #24 Ark, #25 LSU
- 3 ACC, #4 UVA, #23 Cuse, #27 FSU
- 3 BigEast, #6 Nova, #11 Creighton, #28 UCONN
- 3 P12, #12 Colo, #29 Ore, #30 USC
- 1 WCC, #2 Gonzaga
- 1 American, #5 Houston
- 1 MVC, #18 Loyola-Chicago
- 1 MWC, #22 SDSU
The next three highest ranked team from each of those leagues is:
- B12, #60 OkSU, #108 TCU, #117 ISU
- B1G, #39 PU, #45 MSU, #51 MN
- SEC, #37 Mizzou, #44 Ole Miss, #65 UK
- ACC, #32 UNC, #40 VaTech, #43 NCST
- BigEast, #38 Seton Hall, #41 Xavier, #58 Providence
- P12, #34 UCLA, #35 Zona, #61 Stanford
- WCC, #33 BYU, #87 San Fran, #88 St. Mary's
- MVC, #47 Drake, #99 Bradley, #134 MizzouSt
- MWC, #36 Boise, #55 UtahSt, #81 ColoSt
It probably wouldn't make much difference because each of those leagues has at least one "bubble" team so either that team would win it and get in or they wouldn't and the winner would get in and that team would likely be left out.
Where it could cause a difference is in a league that has just one bubble team that is REALLY close to getting in already. Example:
Suppose SDSU sits out the MWC Tournament and in the Championship game UtahSt upsets #36 Boise. Boise may have already sealed their bid by getting to the CG so that would become a three-bid league:
- #22 SDSU because they are top-30,
- #36 Boise because the UtahSt loss wouldn't be THAT bad and the wins prior to that might move them up enough to get in anyway, and
- #55 UtahSt because they get the auto-bid by winning the league.
If that same upset happened in a normal year the MWC might end up as a 1-bid league. That game would be a semi-final instead of the CG and losing in the semi-final would likely bounce #36 Boise without getting UtahSt the auto-bid, they'd still have to play #22 SDSU for that.
I think the NCAA could just stipulate that if the regular season champion chooses NOT to play in their league tournament then the regular season champion gets the auto bid instead of the tournament champion. If they did that I assume that each league would mandate that each of their teams play in the league tournament.
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Almost no upside for the Zags to play in that, and if they get an outbreak right before the real tourney, considerable downside.
I mean, you also can’t let a conference get extra bids by letting teams bow out. Like the top of the Big Ten could all just say “nah” and let six teams battle it out.
I think you gotta say that anyone who doesn’t show for the conference tourney is out. Inelegant, but logical. If the Zags wanna throw game 1, that happens, but they need to show.
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I mean, you also can’t let a conference get extra bids by letting teams bow out. Like the top of the Big Ten could all just say “nah” and let six teams battle it out.
I think you gotta say that anyone who doesn’t show for the conference tourney is out. Inelegant, but logical. If the Zags wanna throw game 1, that happens, but they need to show.
Is that really a huge concern? How many leagues could actually get an extra team in by some lock teams forfeiting? Also, if a team doesn't want to play and claims COVID as the reason, who is going to argue?
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MSU-Iowa game which was postponed is now scheduled for next week.
They also moved MSU-Nebraska into the postponed MSU-UM slot, to open up the MSU-Nebraska scheduled slot to make room for another makeup
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Is that really a huge concern? How many leagues could actually get an extra team in by some lock teams forfeiting? Also, if a team doesn't want to play and claims COVID as the reason, who is going to argue?
Hmm, as pointed out, the WCC might need BYU to step out two.
I mean, maybe 10 conferences could game it. Maybe more? Granted, they might be trading spots with bubble teams that sit out.
I'd still say go or you're out. Or cancel the conference tournament. I'd be fine with that.
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Thursday @ Rutgers
Sunday @ Ohio State
Tuesday @ Iowa
Yeesh, well then. I'd take 1-2
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Hmm, as pointed out, the WCC might need BYU to step out two.
I mean, maybe 10 conferences could game it. Maybe more? Granted, they might be trading spots with bubble teams that sit out.
I'd still say go or you're out. Or cancel the conference tournament. I'd be fine with that.
Dude if everyone did that, then a lot of those "locks" would get squeezed out.
Hoist by their own petard.
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Using your example, BYU and Gonzaga sit out in order to get a third team in, but then everyone else tries the same thing.
The Zags are probably still safe, but BYU is going to get their bid busted.
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MSU-Iowa game which was postponed is now scheduled for next week.
They also moved MSU-Nebraska into the postponed MSU-UM slot, to open up the MSU-Nebraska scheduled slot to make room for another makeup
I'm still trying to figure out what MSU's schedule actually is. When I look at the worldwide leader it states:
This week:
- Thursday, January 28, @ Rutgers 7pm
This weekend:
- Sunday, January 31, @ Ohio State 1pm
Next week:
- Tuesday, February 2, @ Iowa TBD
- Wednesday, February 3, vs Nebraska 7pm
Next weekend:
Week of Monday, February 8 to Thursday, February 11:
- Tuesday, February 9, vs Penn State TBD
Weekend of Friday, February 12 to Sunday, February 14:
- Saturday, February 13, vs Iowa 230pm
The Spartans aren't actually playing games against Iowa and Nebraska on back-to-back days next week, right?
FWIW, next weekend (Friday, February 5 to Sunday, February 7) here are the rest of the B1G teams:
- Michigan: No game, was supposed to play MSU.
- Iowa at IU
- Wisconsin at IL
- Illinois vs UW
- Ohio State: No game.
- Purdue: No game.
- Minnesota: No game.
- Indiana vs Iowa
- Rutgers: No game.
- Maryland at PSU
- Northwestern: No game.
- Penn State vs UMD
- Nebraska: No game.
Oddly, there are a LOT of B1G teams not playing that weekend (currently eight including MSU). Unfortunately, none of them are teams that MSU had to postpone games with (IA, IU, IL) so at this point it doesn't look like there are any opportunities to reschedule.
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I'm still trying to figure out what MSU's schedule actually is. When I look at the worldwide leader it states:
This week:
- Thursday, January 28, @ Rutgers 7pm
This weekend:
- Sunday, January 31, @ Ohio State 1pm
Next week:
- Tuesday, February 2, @ Iowa TBD
- Wednesday, February 3, vs Nebraska 7pm
The Nebraska game got pushed back to 2/6, to allow MSU and Iowa to play Tuesday. Nothing like 3 consecutive road games against tourney teams to get your going coming out of a break.
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The Nebraska game got pushed back to 2/6, to allow MSU and Iowa to play Tuesday. Nothing like 3 consecutive road games against tourney teams to get your going coming out of a break.
Ah, now it makes sense, thank you.
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Yersh, felt like OSU completely dominated PSU in that half, yet only up four at the half.
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Dude if everyone did that, then a lot of those "locks" would get squeezed out.
Hoist by their own petard.
Absolutely.
But if 1-2 conferences did it, you knock out Purdue or something. If everyone did it, all your bubble teams are out. Wouldn't be good.
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Yersh, felt like OSU completely dominated PSU in that half, yet only up four at the half.
I can't watch here but this is pathetic. Losing to a quality opponent is one thing, but PSU does not even resemble quality.
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I can't watch here but this is pathetic. Losing to a quality opponent is one thing, but PSU does not even resemble quality.
That's overstating, they are 46th on KenPom, right in the mix of lower tietr B1G teams still good
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsyNLW7XcAAWR9x?format=jpg&name=small)
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https://twitter.com/clubtrillion/status/1354609948915716098?s=19
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That's overstating, they are 46th on KenPom, right in the mix of lower tietr B1G teams still good
The part where they traded buckets was fun. I was hoping PSU could make it more fun. Oh well.
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The part where they traded buckets was fun. I was hoping PSU could make it more fun. Oh well.
Such a weird game. Felt like OSU was great in the first half, yet they were only up 4 at the half. Felt like they were in disarray most if the second half, yet they got the win.
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Such a weird game. Felt like OSU was great in the first half, yet they were only up 4 at the half. Felt like they were in disarray most if the second half, yet they got the win.
A lot of solid players, good coach, a few big makes, you'll win some ballgames.
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Best case scenario for Maryland, would be for their county to pull a Santa Clara, and force them to play all their games on the road
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UW ran up a big lead and let it get interesting. That was weird.
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Here are the B1G's .500+ teams' records against each other:
- 2-0 Michigan: Beat UW at home and PU on the road. 6-1 against the sub .500 teams.
- 1-0 Iowa: Beat PU at home. 5-2 against the sub .500 teams.
- 2-2 Ohio State: Beat UW and IL on the road, lost 2x to PU. 5-2 against the sub .500 teams.
- 1-1 Illinois: Beat PU, lost to tOSU both at home. 5-2 against the sub .500 teams.
- 2-3 Purdue: Beat tOSU 2x, lost at IA and IL, lost at home to M. 4-1 against the sub .500 teams.
- 0-2 Wisconsin: Lost at M, lost at home to tOSU. 7-1 against the sub .500 teams.
Interesting that all six have lost at least once to a sub .500 team:
- Michigan lost at Minnesota.
- Iowa lost at Minnesota and vs Indiana.
- Ohio State lost at Minnesota and at Northwestern.
- Illinois lost at Rutgers and vs Maryland.
- Purdue lost at Rutgers.
- Wisconsin lost vs Maryland.
Minnesota stood out to me with their three wins over the B1G's .500+ teams. That is the most in the league (M, tOSU, PU, RU, and UMD have two each). The Gophers are 3-4 against the .500+ teams and 1-1 against the sub .500 teams. The Gophers' schedule so far has been brutal. Within the conference they have played:
- 8-1 M twice
- 6-2 Iowa twice
- 7-3 UW on the road
- 6-3 IL on the road
- 7-4 tOSU at home
- 2-4 MSU at home
- 3-7 UMD on the road
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The .500+ teams and Minnesota so far:
(https://i.imgur.com/l3PD3JH.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/n5AKGl0.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/RVfJ1HA.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/FaLq7Dh.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/5iY6LUV.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/yIFwdxj.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/H3oej62.png)
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(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/64/f8/6e/64f86ecbd5043e35510ca5fc67861f44.png)
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where's the canoe?
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Just opt out of the season, the players already have
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Kithier misses at the basket, they hit a turnaround. Loyer misses an open 3, they hit a 3 in transition. 10 point swing off of Rutgers simply hitting a more difficult version of a shot MSU just missed
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only down 6 at the half
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only down 6 at the half
It's ugly. Rutgers is playing poorly on both ends. MSU is playing abysmally on offense, and decent on defense. The result is MSU missing open shots, and Rutgers hitting enough contested ones when they don't turn it over.
Bingham is playing well, and I'm struggling to think of anyone else. Henry and Watts are actually negatives. I'm hoping Watts' benching works the right way.
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15-3 Rutgers run since the missed layup to cut it to 1
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Well that escalated quickly
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13 of 15 players have had COVID, a team captain was pictured partying at WMU. This team checked out long ago. Just go home, because you don't want to be here
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KenPom Power Rankings with about 10 games to go for everyone
1. Michigan (3)
2. Iowa (4)
3. Illinois (8)
4. Wisconsin (11)
5. OSU (14)
6. Indiana (23)
7. Rutgers (28)
8. Purdue (31)
9. Minnesota (34)
10. PSU (42)
11. Maryland (43)
12. MSU (61)
13. Northwestern (72)
14. Nebraska (125)
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This is really just the universe conspiring for Sparty to kick the hell out of OSU this weekend
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Izzo committed to taking Loyer/Kithier over Duane Washington/Trayveon Williams
https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1354959218164568073?s=19
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This is really just the universe conspiring for Sparty to kick the hell out of OSU this weekend
Take the name off the front of the jersey. Nebraska is the only team in the Big Ten worse than MSU
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I just can't believe that the Knights held the Spartans under 40.
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https://twitter.com/Wil__Hunter/status/1355178625310597120?s=19
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I'm trying to make sense of the standings given the highly variable B1G schedules that have been played so far. Here is what I have:
(https://i.imgur.com/Q3RejKm.png)
The .500+ and sub .500 teams are self-explanatory. For this purpose the top-10 includes Michigan down through 3-7 Maryland but does NOT include 3-7 Northwestern. I'm making a distinction between the two 3-7 teams on the basis of conference SoS. Maryland's 3-7 record came in eight games against the .500+ teams (2-6) and all 10 against the top-10 (3-7) while Northwestern has played only seven .500+ teams (1-6) and only eight against the top-10 (2-6).
Maryland and Minnesota appear to be better than their records because they have only played two games each against the sub .500 teams and Minnesota has only played one of the bottom-4 while Maryland hasn't played any.
It seems odd that Iowa has managed to play eight conference games while only playing once against the .500+ teams. Every other team has at least two such games and some other teams have a LOT more: Maryland has eight, Minnesota and Northwestern have seven, Rutgers has six, etc.
Wisconsin I am not so sure about. They are REALLY good against the bad teams. They are undefeated against the bottom-4 which puts them in good company with Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, and Purdue and they have the best record in the league against the sub .500 teams at 7-1 but their 0-2 record against the .500+ teams is concerning and their 4-3 record against the top-10 is a step below the Wolverines and Hawkeyes, tied with Ohio State.
BPI and KenPom apparently like PSU better than Maryland but at least within the league I just don't see it. Maryland has a better record (3-7 vs 2-6) and did it against better opposition.
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Standings and games through Thursday of next week:
- 8-1 Michigan:
- 6-2 Iowa: @IL, vsMSU, vstOSU
- 7-3 Wisconsin: @PSU, vsPSU
- 6-3 Illinois: vsIA, @IU
- 7-4 Ohio State: vsMSU, @IA
- 6-4 Purdue: vsMN, @UMD
- 5-6 Rutgers: @NU, vsMN
- 4-5 Minnesota: @PU, @RU
- 4-5 Indiana: vsIL
- 3-7 Maryland: vsPU
- 3-7 Northwestern: vsRU
- 2-5 Michigan State: @tOSU, @IA, vsUNL
- 2-6 Penn State: vsUW, @UW
- 0-5 Nebraska: @MSU
Iowa and Michigan State each have some seriously quick turnarounds coming up:
- Friday, 1/29: Iowa visits Illinois
- Sunday, 1/31: Michigan State visits Ohio State
- Tuesday, 2/2: Iowa hosts Michigan State
- Thursday, 2/4: Iowa hosts Ohio State
That could be a factor in Ohio State's game in Iowa City on Thursday.
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Race for the top-4 slots (and a bye into Friday of the BTT):
Michigan is a pretty sure bet at this point. That could change, obviously, but right now they are two games ahead of 5th place Ohio State and 2.5 games ahead of sixth place Purdue.
Iowa would get the #2 seed if the Tournament started today but their situation is fairly tenuous. They would win a tie with Purdue based on their H2H Home win over the Boilermakers but, as noted upthread, that is Iowa's only game so far against a team better than .500 in the B1G. They still have to travel to Ann Arbor, Madison, Champaign, and Columbus and they also host the Buckeyes so things could change quickly for the Hawkeyes.
Wisconsin would get the #3 seed if the Tournament started today but they are 0-2 against .500+ teams so they would lose any tie. They still have to travel to Iowa City, Champaign, and West Lafayette as well as host the Wolverines, Hawkeyes, and Illini so things could change quickly for the Badgers as well.
If the Tournament started today the Illini would get the #4 seed but they are only 1/2 game ahead of the Boilermakers and less than 1/2 game ahead of the Buckeyes. Ties:
- Illinois would win a tie with Purdue based on their home win over the Boilermakers and lose a tie with tOSU based on their home loss to the Buckeyes. They visit Columbus at the end of the regular season.
- Ohio State would win a tie with Illinois based on their win in Champaign but they play Illinois again in March. The Buckeyes would lose a tie with Purdue based on being swept by the Boilermakers.
- Purdue would win a tie with tOSU based on their sweep of the Buckeyes and lose a tie with Illinois based on their road loss to the Illini.
After Purdue there is a 1.5 game dropoff to the 7th place Scarlet Knights so for right now I would say that Michigan looks solid for one of the top-4 seeds (probably #1) while Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State, and Purdue are a five-team scramble for the other three.
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Updated Bracketology from the Worldwide leader:
- #1 Michigan
- #2 Iowa
- #3 Ohio State, Wisconsin
- #4 Illinois
- #6 Minnesota
- #7 Purdue
- #10 Indiana (last four byes)
- #11 Rutgers (last four byes)
- #12 Maryland (last four in)
We no longer have any teams among the first or next four out so our bubble teams are down to just IU and RU among the last four byes and UMD among the last four in.
FWIW, those seeds would typically yield:
- 6.6 R32 teams
- 3.91 S16 teams
- 2.1 E8 teams
- 1.0 F4 teams
- 0.53 NCG teams
- 0.27 National Champions
If you want to see the math behind that, I can show it.
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The positive for Purdue is their remaining schedule at this point is significantly easier than their first half conference schedule.
- One game against 0-5 Nebraska
- One game against 2-6 Penn State
- Two games against 2-5 Michigan State
- One game against 3-7 Northwestern
- One game against 3-7 Maryland
- One game against 4-5 Indiana (home)
- Two games against #21 4-5 Minnesota (home & away, obv)
- One game against #14 7-3 Wisconsin (home)
Obviously I think Minnesota is better than their record, but that means only one game in the next 10 for the Boilers against a team that is currently >.500 in the conference, and that's at home.
I do worry that two of the next four are against Minnesota, and Sasha Stefanovich's return is TBD. That's hard because we're without Sasha for tomorrow's game at home, and then when we have him back it'll be on the road. Very easy to go 0-2 against Minnesota given that split, and the fact that they've knocked off some big names. Purdue will be hoping that their inconsistency at least allows us to split against them.
But I think Purdue should be looking at the rest of the schedule and think that going 5-5 from here would be about the low point, with 7-3 or 8-2 not out of the realm of possibility.
Even 5-5 would be 11-9 in conference, and IMHO still solidly in the tourney.
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Even 5-5 would be 11-9 in conference, and IMHO still solidly in the tourney.
That would be EASILY in the tournament IMHO.
If you look at the Bracketology post that I did above, per the worldwide leader all of the teams from Purdue (6-4) up are in without even being on the bubble. The Bubble teams are all sub .500 in the league:
- 5-6 Rutgers
- 4-5 Indiana
- 3-7 Maryland
Given the strength of the league I would think that anything over .500 in the league will be easily in with teams at or a little below .500 on the bubble.
I'm analyzing my team about the same way that you are analyzing yours, currently 7-4:
- One game against 2-6 PSU (away): In theory this should be easy but the Buckeyes just barely beat them at home so who knows.
- Two games against 2-5 MSU: Based on MSU's performance against RU, these should be easy wins but I am certainly not confident that Izzo will not get this team together.
- One game against 3-7 Maryland (away): I think that Maryland is better than their record but oddly the Terps seem to be better away from home so who knows.
- One game against 4-5 Indiana (home): This should probably be a win but not easy.
- One game against 6-3 Illinois (home): The Buckeyes beat them at their place so they *SHOULD* get the sweep.
- Two games against 6-2 Iowa: I'm not convinced that the Hawkeyes are as good as their record, but they are a really good team even if not. Still, the road game will catch Iowa on short rest due to COVID rescheduling so that might help, we'll see.
- One game against 8-1 Michigan (home): This will obviously be a tough game but at least it is at home. It would be great to upset the rivals in such a great season for them.
The Buckeyes *SHOULD* finish at least 4-5 and that would equate to a final B1G record of 11-9. I am hoping for one of the top-4 seeds which will probably require more like a 6-3 finish for a 13-7 final record or better.
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Standings and games through Thursday of next week:
- 8-1 Michigan:
- 6-2 Iowa: @IL, vsMSU, vstOSU
- 7-3 Wisconsin: @PSU, vsPSU
- 6-3 Illinois: vsIA, @IU
- 7-4 Ohio State: vsMSU, @IA
- 6-4 Purdue: vsMN, @UMD
- 5-6 Rutgers: @NU, vsMN
- 4-5 Minnesota: @PU, @RU
- 4-5 Indiana: vsIL
- 3-7 Maryland: vsPU
- 3-7 Northwestern: vsRU
- 2-5 Michigan State: @tOSU, @IA, vsUNL
- 2-6 Penn State: vsUW, @UW
- 0-5 Nebraska: @MSU
Looking at each of the teams and what they have coming up:
Iowa:
I noted above that Iowa has only played one .500+ B1G team. That is about to change quickly. They are at Illinois (6-3) tonight and host tOSU (7-4) on Thursday with MSU (2-5) in between on Tuesday night. I have no idea what to expect. Honestly I feel like neither 3-0 nor 0-3 are completely out of the question and there is a HUMONGOUS difference between 9-2, second place, and likely Michigan's only serious contender vs 6-5 and in 5th or 6th place.
Wisconsin/Penn State:
Due to COVID issues these two have an unusual set of back-to-back games against each other. Wisconsin's specialty has been beating the not-so-good teams (they are tops in the league against the sub .500 teams) and they need to keep it up to keep on the pace with Michigan and (possibly) Iowa. For Penn State, we are getting to make-or-break time. The computers seem to still kinda like the Nittany Lions but they have fallen to 2-6 in the league, their only wins were home games against RU and NU, and they are ahead of only Nebraska in the standings. Somehow, someway they need to find some more wins if they want to get to the bubble.
Illinois:
The Illini are 1-1 in their two games against the B1G's .500+ teams with the win coming at home over Purdue almost a month ago. Between postponements (UNL, MSU), losses (vs UMD, vs tOSU), and non-quality opponents (@NU, vs PSU) the Illini haven't experienced a quality win in almost a month. Iowa is probably a better team but it is at home. Indiana is probably an inferior team but it is on the road. Considering that, I could see anything from 0-2 to 2-0.
Ohio State:
The Buckeyes have won five of their last six and with the way MSU looked last night and the fact that Iowa will be on a short-turnaround I could see them winning both of these to move to 9-4, into the top-4, and close to locking up a bid. OTOH, the Buckeyes barely survived PSU at home last time out and last I checked Izzo was still coaching in East Lansing so they could also lose both.
Purdue:
The Boilermakers' next two games are against sub .500 teams but these are some odd sub .500 teams who each own some pretty impressive wins so I hardly consider this an easy week for them. Just like Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio State I don't think that either 0-2 nor 2-0 is outside the realm of realisitc.
Rutgers:
Bracketologists generally concur that Rutgers is very close to the knife edge of the bubble (either barely in or barely out) so every game is critical. A loss to Northwestern would knock them out for now while a win over Minnesota would shore up their status for now. 1-1 moves them on another week at the edge.
Minnesota:
As I noted upthread the Gophers have played a brutal schedule and it doesn't get any easier with a pair of road games against probable (PU) and possible (RU) tournament teams.
Indiana:
Much like Rutgers, the Hoosiers are barely in or barely out depending on who you ask so every game is critical. A win over Illinois would certainly help!
Maryland:
The Terps are about to play their NINTH game against .500+ B1G teams. Compare that to Iowa who has only played one or M, UW, IL, and MSU who have only played two each. That is a tough schedule which explains why they are a 3-7 team that is apparently on the bubble. The problem is that they can't get too far below .500 themselves.
Northwestern:
Once upon a time the Wildcats were 3-0 and in first place in the B1G with wins over MSU, IU, and tOSU. Back then things looked good for them. Since then . . . seven straight losses. Can they get off the mat?
Michigan State:
The Spartans went 6-0 OOC including impressive (at the time) wins over ND and at Dook but then started league play 0-3 (@NU, vsUW, @MN). Then they rebounded to win two straight (@UNL, vsRU) in early January. Then they suffered a close loss at home to Purdue (55-54) on January 8 to fall to 8-4/2-4 then they were off for almost three weeks due to COVID. Last night they came back and it was ugly. Rutgers got their first ever win over MSU and allowed the fewest points they have EVER allowed in a B1G game by beating MSU 67-37. That was also Rutgers' largest ever MOV in a B1G game. Obviously being that "other team" for somebody else's records is never good. Following that up with two more road games in Columbus and Iowa City could be a rough road for Izzo's team.
Nebraska:
Earlier I had written that Nebraska was travelling to East Lansing next week but it appears that is off due to COVID so it looks like Nebraska will not play again until at least next weekend.
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With Illinois' win over Iowa the first place Wolverines now have a 1.5 game lead over second place.
Symmetrically, seventh place Rutgers is 1.5 games behind sixth place.
Between the first place Wolverines and the seventh place Scarlet Knights there are five teams all within one game of each other for second through sixth place.
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If UW could go ahead and sweep PSU, I'd be appreciative.
Badgers are No. 1 in the conference in remaining SOS by a hair over MSU (sorry ELA). Purdue, Maryland and Minnesota are on the other end there.
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Izzo committed to taking Loyer/Kithier over Duane Washington/Trayveon Williams
https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1354959218164568073?s=19
And more. MSU, with Bingham on the floor, would be #1 in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency by 3 points per 100 possessions. Obviously that's not how it works, but how Kithier keeps getting minutes is a head scratcher
https://twitter.com/Wil__Hunter/status/1355582506565840899?s=20
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Wisconsin out here just playing bad and trying to piss me off
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PSU has some pop in them
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ESPN trying to hype the Gonzaga game is hilarious.
If they were honest they'd say:
Gonzaga is playing a team that your local HS or Rec League team could beat, but watch to see if they score 1,000 points!
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I would have tipped my cap if the sound guy at Mackey would have just made the crown incessantly boo every call against Purdue, no matter how obvious.
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Important win for Purdue. In the first half, you could see the impact of not having Sasha on the floor offensively, and Minnesota started with red hot shooting. I was dreading a loss and then having to try to split at the Barn.
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ESPN trying to hype the Gonzaga game is hilarious.
If they were honest they'd say:
Gonzaga is playing a team that your local HS or Rec League team could beat, but watch to see if they score 1,000 points!
Pepperdine is No. 127 in KenPom, managed to score 34 points in the first half, and ever went up nine at one point.
Your rec team and and local high school team are deeply bad in comparison. There is perhaps a HS team or two in Ohio that could push a top150 college team, but that’s probably generous.
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Pepperdine is No. 127 in KenPom.
That is the point. Yes it was an exaggeration but not by much more than ESPN treating it as a serious challenge for Gonzaga.
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The difference between Duane Washington's skill set and what he thinks is his skill set is sometimes stark.
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when's the last time (the top 10 in all-time wins) Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, Temple, Syracuse, UCLA, Notre Dame, St. Johns, Indiana were all out of the top 20?
Jayhawks at #15 should drop out
UCLA @ 23 with a win over Oregon St. could move into the top 20
#11-#15 all-time Cincy, Utah, Arizona, Purdue, Western Kentucky are also out
#16 Illinios is in @ 19!!! and that win vs Iowa
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OSU has an amazing ability to have leads, but not big leads
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There is the Revenge Tour and then there is what Sparty is on, the Everyone Takes Revenge Tour
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtFiUPdUcAAmkKJ?format=jpg&name=small)
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OSU has an amazing ability to have leads, but not big leads
Yeah, they couldn't put it away for the longest time!
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That is the point. Yes it was an exaggeration but not by much more than ESPN treating it as a serious challenge for Gonzaga.
Yes, it is a massive exaggeration.
Granted, it is silly to treat it as a serious challenge to Gonzaga. It's got to be a weird beast calling those games. But you can't spend the whole game talking about the possible NBA futures of various Zags and then the bubble picture at large.
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Honestly, treating any of this as meaningful is comical. It's a random assortment of basketballish activity, to salvage what was lost by not playing a tournament last year.
Throw Pepperdine in the Big Ten, hell, they might win it
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My favorite part of all of this was running the PS3 sims, and my wife asking why I cared about fake football, and realizing I had more control over that "fake" football than I did over real football, that has made me realize how dumb this all is. Nobody cares about regular season basketball, bit could you imagine how quickly the plug would have been pulled on football if Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame had sucked? Basketball is built on Cinderella beating the establishment powers. Football is built on the establishment. When we have a tourney, and there is no Duke, no UNC, no Kentucky, no MSU, no Indiana, the narrative will turn very quickly to how illegitimate this season was
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If the B1G Tournament started tomorrow:
Wednesday:
- #11 Maryland vs #14 Nebraska
- #12 Northwestern vs #13 Michigan State
Thursday:
- #5 Purdue (wins tie with UW based on record vs tOSU) vs NU/MSU
- #6 Wisconsin vs UMD/UNL
- #7 Rutgers vs #10 Penn State
- #8 Indiana vs #9 Minnesota
Friday:
- #1 Michigan vs IU/MN
- #2 Illinois vs RU/PSU
- #3 Ohio State vs UW/UMD/UNL
- #4 Iowa vs PU/NU/MSU
Saturday:
- M/IU/MN vs IA/PU/NU/MSU
- IL/RU/PSU vs tOSU/UW/UMD/UNL
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My favorite part of all of this was running the PS3 sims, and my wife asking why I cared about fake football, and realizing I had more control over that "fake" football than I did over real football, that has made me realize how dumb this all is. Nobody cares about regular season basketball, bit could you imagine how quickly the plug would have been pulled on football if Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame had sucked? Basketball is built on Cinderella beating the establishment powers. Football is built on the establishment. When we have a tourney, and there is no Duke, no UNC, no Kentucky, no MSU, no Indiana, the narrative will turn very quickly to how illegitimate this season was
Things mean what one wants them to mean. I'll tell you, I genuinely care about it. Perhaps not who finishes where in the Top-25, but who wins conferences, who has a nice story, how a litany of teams do.
Plus its nice wallpaper while reading nonsense on twitter in the evening.
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Yeah, it can be as important or as unimportant as each wants. I don't want to diminish anyone's enjoyment.
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When we have a tourney, and there is no Duke, no UNC, no Kentucky, no MSU, no Indiana, the narrative will turn very quickly to how illegitimate this season was
Sounds like sour grapes from the blue bloods.
”Illegitimate?"
With 68 teams you can't get in, so the entire season is illegitimate?!?!
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An illegitimate tourney is a heck of a lot better than no tourney at all
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Sounds like sour grapes from the blue bloods.
”Illegitimate?"
With 68 teams you can't get in, so the entire season is illegitimate?!?!
I just said what I think the narrative will be.
Like how people were calling the Lakers the "Mickey Mouse champs", and that was just the postseason in a bubble. Last year when I thought the tournament was still going to happen, but with no fans, I was worried that if MSU made a run, it would always be "oh yeah, but that was the weird no fans year"
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If we cancelled the tourney everytime that Indiana didn't make it, then there would be a lot of cancelled tourneys.
They are the Tennessee/Nebraska of College Basketball.
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When we have a tourney, and there is no Duke, no UNC, no Kentucky, no MSU, no Indiana, the narrative will turn very quickly to how illegitimate this season was
I really don’t think so. It will be a story, sure, but I don’t think it will turn into “we shouldn’t have even played this season.” Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see it playing out that way.
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I don't want to cancel it. I think it would be a fun year to try and tinker with it as a one off. Like do 8 double elimination tournaments of 8, hosted by the top 8 seeds.
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If we cancelled the tourney everytime that Indiana didn't make it, then there would be a lot of cancelled tourneys.
They are the Tennessee/Nebraska of College Basketball.
ya couldn't just leave it at Tennessee, ya just had to throw down that forward slash
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Yes, it is a massive exaggeration.
Granted, it is silly to treat it as a serious challenge to Gonzaga. It's got to be a weird beast calling those games. But you can't spend the whole game talking about the possible NBA futures of various Zags and then the bubble picture at large.
I was making a comparison. Pepperdine is #122 in BPI and that is good for sixth in Gonzaga's conference, the WCC teams are:
- #2 Gonzaga
- #40 BYU
- #87 San Francisco
- #93 St. Mary's
- #106 Loyola Marymount
- #122 Pepperdine
- #144 Santa Clara
- #189 Pacific
- #215 San Diego
- #335 Portland
By comparison with the big boy leagues:
B1G:
- #124 Nebraska is the worst team, they are approximately even with Pepperdine and are ahead of four WCC teams.
- #79 Northwestern is second worst and they would be third best in the WCC. Same goes for third worst #65 MSU, fourth worst #61 UMD, fifth worst #56 MN, sixth worst #44 PSU, and seventh worst #42 Rutgers.
- #33 Purdue is seventh in the B1G. They would be second to Gonzaga in the WCC as would #3 IA, #7 M, #9 IL, #12 tOSU, #15 UW, or #29 IU.
B12:
- #232 KSU is the worst team, they aren't much worse than San Diego and would be 9th in the WCC.
- #136 ISU is second worst and they are better than four WCC teams.
- #106 TCU is third worst, tied with Loyola Marymount and would be tied for fifth in the WCC.
- #58 OkSU is the fourth worst team in the B12 and would be third best in the WCC.
- #27 Kansas is #6 in the B12, they would be #2 in the WCC behind only Gonzaga as would #8 TxTech, #16 Texas, #18 OU, or #21 WVU.
ACC:
- #131 Miami is the worst team, they are ahead of four WCC teams.
- #110 BC is second worst, they would be sixth in the WCC.
- #103 Wake is third worst, they would be #5 in the WCC.
- #85 Pitt is fourth worst, they would be third in the WCC as would #68 ND, #62 Clemson, #57 GaTech, #49 Louisville, and #47 NCST.
- #34 DOOK is the sixth best team. They would be second in the WCC behind only Gonzaga as would #6 UVA, #23 FSU, #25 Cuse, #26 UNC, or #31 VaTech.
BigEast:
- #125 G'Town is the worst team, they are ahead of four WCC teams.
- #115 DePaul is second worst, they are ahead of five WCC teams as is #114 Butler.
- #78 Marquette is the third worst, they would be third best in the WCC as would #74 St. Johns, #55 Providence, and #45 Seton Hall.
- #35 Xavier is fourth in the BigEast, they would be #2 in the WCC behind only Gonzaga as would #5 Nova, #11 Creighton, and #28 UCONN.
SEC:
- #134 aTm is the worst team, they are ahead of four WCC teams as is #132 Vandy.
- #111 UGA is third worst, they are ahead of five WCC teams.
- #88 USCe is fourth worst in the SEC. They would be fourth best in the WCC and almost tied for third best with #87 San Francisco.
- #70 Auburn is fifth worst in the SEC. They would be third best in the WCC as would #66 UK, #54 MissSt, and #53 Ole Miss.
- #39 Mizzou is sixth in the SEC, they would be second only to Gonzaga in the WCC as would #10 TN, #14 Bama, #20 UF, #22 Ark, and #24 LSU.
P12:
- #165 Washington is the worst team. They are ahead of three WCC teams as is #151 Cal and #145 WSU.
- #126 OrSU is the fourth worst team in the P12, they are ahead of four WCC teams.
- #86 ASU is the fifth worst team in the P12, they would be third best in the WCC as would #76 Utah, and #59 Stanford.
- #37 UCLA is fifth in the P12, they would be #2 in the WCC behind only Gonzaga as would #13 Colorado, #30 USC, #32 Oregon, and #36 Zona.
My point is simply that teams like Baylor, Iowa, Villanova, Virginia, Tennessee, and Colorado are well tested in conference. They play quality opponents all year long not just in a few early OOC games and then in the tournament. Gonzaga doesn't.
With the exception of BYU all of Gonzaga's conference opponents are against teams that would be among the worst in any of the power leagues. Hyping a game between Gonzaga and Pepperdine would be the equivalent of hyping a game between Iowa and Nebraska or Baylor and ISU or Virginia and Miami or Nova and G'Town or Tennessee and aTm or Colorado and OrSU. None of those games are serious challenges for the favorites and neither is Pepperdine for Gonzaga.
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Does the BTN not hype games between Iowa and Nebraska?
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Does the BTN not hype games between Iowa and Nebraska?
Yeah, that's what I was going to say. Why would they not try and sell what they are airing?
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Does the BTN not hype games between Iowa and Nebraska?
rasslin matches, yes
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DLINgxG7Fc&ab_channel=BigTenNetwork
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Purdue back in the rankings at 24...
Also KenPom #24, Sagarin #21, and NET #24.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DLINgxG7Fc&ab_channel=BigTenNetwork
loved Tim Miles
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OSU scratches into the top ten on KenPom, giving the B1G 4 in the top ten and 5 in the top 13
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rasslin matches, yes
If the TV title is on the line
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Interesting slate of games tonight for me as a Buckeye fan.
I've mentioned this before but right now there are five teams all within one game of each other for 2nd through 6th place in the league:
- 7-3 Illinois is in second
- 8-4 Ohio State is less than 1/2 game behind Iowa in third
- 6-3 Iowa is less than 1/2 game behind tOSU in fourth
- 7-4 Purdue is less than 1/2 game behind Iowa and only 1/2 game behind both IL and tOSU tied for fifth/sixth with
- 7-4 Wisconsin
Ohio State is idle tonight but the other four are playing. Based on their results the Buckeyes could end up anywhere between alone in second place (if they all lose) or tied with PU and UW for 4th/5th/6th (if they all win).
Aside from that, I find some interest tonight in the fact that several of their opponents are either in or approaching desperation time. Penn State and Michigan State have six league losses each while Maryland has seven so none of them can afford too many more.
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I sense Wisconsin will find a way to piss me off today.
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I was making a comparison. Pepperdine is #122 in BPI and that is good for sixth in Gonzaga's conference, the WCC teams are:
- #2 Gonzaga
- #40 BYU
- #87 San Francisco
- #93 St. Mary's
- #106 Loyola Marymount
- #122 Pepperdine
- #144 Santa Clara
- #189 Pacific
- #215 San Diego
- #335 Portland
...
My point is simply that teams like Baylor, Iowa, Villanova, Virginia, Tennessee, and Colorado are well tested in conference. They play quality opponents all year long not just in a few early OOC games and then in the tournament. Gonzaga doesn't.
With the exception of BYU all of Gonzaga's conference opponents are against teams that would be among the worst in any of the power leagues. Hyping a game between Gonzaga and Pepperdine would be the equivalent of hyping a game between Iowa and Nebraska or Baylor and ISU or Virginia and Miami or Nova and G'Town or Tennessee and aTm or Colorado and OrSU. None of those games are serious challenges for the favorites and neither is Pepperdine for Gonzaga.
So, I thought the point was that Pepperdine was bad, or then relatively bad. Or that it was bad that the game on TV was hyped by the folks broadcasting the game, which all networks do. I'm also still a little unclear where the rec league team shows up.
Anyway, I'm sure if ESPN was broadcasting some dog of a game, they wouldn't be like "Hey folks, this one is already over, so please don't watch." Sports are about optimism, even silly optimism.
Ahhh well, should be interesting to see how their season goes.
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Purdue #choked that one away
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Wisconsin is starting just OK, AKA to irk me
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Iowa ekes out a win over Sparty. They play OSU Thursday, which by Kenpom at least features two great offenses and two meh defenses. We might get an NBA all star game.
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Wisconsin is starting just OK, AKA to irk me
Update. Lead is big now. Would like them to maintain.
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Horribly reffed game made this one almost unwatchable. Illini squeaked one out in OT.
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Trent Frazer hit a 3 early in the game last night in front of the Indiana bench. He got a technical right away after it. It is being reported that he yelled "cash" after he hit the 3. If that is true that that is all he said.... I don't know what to say.
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Purdue had a 60-55 lead with 1:43 or so to play. At this point ESPN gave them a WP of over 80%. They didn't score again.
Note that Purdue was in the double bonus at this point as well.
Why I say they choked:
- Immediately gave up a 3. Not a choke. Good shot by Maryland. 60-58.
- Crossed half court with the ball and called a TO. Didn't really even attempt to get the ball into the paint, settled for a long Jaden Ivey 3 which was missed. Bad move.
- Quick foul by Eric Hunter. Bad move. Luckily Ayala only made one of the two FTs -- 60-59.
- Purdue with the ball, tries to burn the shot clock, doesn't even attempt to get the ball into the paint, and after taking 25 seconds or so settles for an off-balance fadeaway jumper by Ivey, which again missed. Bad move.
- Maryland crosses half-court and calls a TO with 0:16 left. Ayala drives and misses a layup as time is winding, down, and then surrounded by 3 Boilermakers he's able to secure his own rebound and is hacked by Ivey, sending him to the line. He makes both with 0:03 left. 60-61.
- Purdue misses the buzzer beater full court heave.
Credit to Maryland for making the 3-pointer and enough free throws to get it done. But I think Purdue went away from actually trying to keep scoring, and pulled the typical "playing not to lose" strategy.
Trevion Williams had 23 and 11, and was 5 of 6 from the line while Purdue was in the double bonus. Get the ball in the paint and either get an easy look or force them to foul. Instead Purdue just burned clock and then missed difficult shots.
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Sounds familiar to the OSU-Purdue game. Young teams are gonna have games like this sometimes.
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young teams need to be told by the coach, "under 2 minutes, NOBODY shots a jumper!"
Layups, dunks, or free throws
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settled for a long Jaden Ivey 3 which was missed. Bad move.
Who would have thought
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Who would have thought
Yeah, he made them before, but missed this time. Live/die by the 3.
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It's not "good decision if he makes them, bad decision if he misses" by comparing the ending of the OSU and MD games...
There was a big difference. Purdue was trailing in the OSU game, and leading in the MD game.
If you've got the lead, dare them to stop you in the paint, especially when that's our most reliable position.
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young teams need to be told by the coach, "under 2 minutes, NOBODY shots a jumper!"
Layups, dunks, or free throws
This would be a tough way to live. Jumpers make up a vast percentage of shots. If you force kids into something, it often isn’t gonna go well.
I mean, you gotta generate good shots and you gotta hit them. All you can do.
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Yeah, he made them before, but missed this time. Live/die by the 3.
I climb on my small high horse: living or dying by the 3 isn’t worlds different than living or dying by the driver or the post up. Not to mention FTs, which teams have the least control over.
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Rivals reporting Michigan-Illinois basketball is off for the 11th, Michigan-Wisconsin a few days later looking dicy.
Wonder if a game can be moved up.
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@bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , I have a question for you. This isn't a knock on PU, it is a data-driven question:
As an Ohio State fan I haven't seen much of PU and what I did see was in their two wins over tOSU so I'm surprised that they aren't higher in the standings. They sure looked better than my team. Here is the thing I noticed though: Purdue's two wins over Ohio State are BU FAR their best two wins in the league. The Boilermakers are:
- 0-1 against M
- 0-1 against IL
- 0-1 against Iowa
- 0-1 against Rutgers
Overall they are 2-4 against the B1G's .500 teams with the two wins over tOSU and the four losses listed above. So, as I see it, there are three main possibilities:
- Match-up issues: Purdue just matches up really well against tOSU and/or tOSU just matches up really poorly against PU. Ie, Purdue really isn't THAT good and tOSU really isn't THAT bad it is just a match-up issue specific to those two teams.
- Random chance: Maybe Purdue just happened to have great games both times out against tOSU and/or maybe tOSU just happened to have awful games both times out against PU. Ie, tOSU is actually the better team as evidenced by their better record in the B1G (overall, vs .500+, and vs top-11).
- Purdue is actually a better team than Ohio State but has had a relatively difficult schedule (11 of 12 B1G games against the top-11 teams) and has been a tad unlucky in some of those losses.
FWIW, I think it is probably mostly a mix of #1 and #2: Ohio State had difficulty with PU's size inside (#1) and both games were close (#2). In the game in West Lafayette the Boilermakers led the entire second half and at one point led by 14 but it was a six point game under 3 minutes and that is pretty much anybody's game. The game in Columbus was even closer with Ohio State leading for most of the game and holding a lead with under a minute to play before losing by just two points.
I'm curious your thoughts because if Purdue is as good as their wins over Ohio State indicate then they should finish well since there are no games remaining against teams with better records and only one game against a team that is close (vsUW). OTOH, if you ignore the two wins over tOSU, the Boilermakers do NOT look like a good team. Ignoring those they are 0-4 against .500+ and only 4-5 against the top-11.
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This would be a tough way to live. Jumpers make up a vast percentage of shots. If you force kids into something, it often isn’t gonna go well.
I mean, you gotta generate good shots and you gotta hit them. All you can do.
I'm talking about under 2 minutes with a lead
I'd practice it enough that it wouldn't seem forced.
hey, if a kid gets a great look at a 15 footer because the offense is busting the box, go ahead and take it. But it better be uncontested and the kid better have his feet set.
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Michigan is looking at possibly needing to make up 6 games. Who knows how the rest of this season plays out with other teams and possible postponements. It will be interesting to see how the regular season champion is determined if they are unable to make up enough games.
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I'm talking about under 2 minutes with a lead
I'd practice it enough that it wouldn't seem forced.
hey, if a kid gets a great look at a 15 footer because the offense is busting the box, go ahead and take it. But it better be uncontested and the kid better have his feet set.
It’s possibly my UW background. Their clock grinding stuff is about control and getting up a shot.
A pick and pop or pick and roll and replace generate good looks. I think at times, a slightly tough 3 can be a pretty make-able shot depending on the shooter. The worry with post ups or drives is folks can get handsy and that over gets overlooked when you’re up. Granted, my school is low on good drivers every year and worry the ball can be driven out of the post.
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@bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , I have a question for you. This isn't a knock on PU, it is a data-driven question:
As an Ohio State fan I haven't seen much of PU and what I did see was in their two wins over tOSU so I'm surprised that they aren't higher in the standings. They sure looked better than my team. Here is the thing I noticed though: Purdue's two wins over Ohio State are BU FAR their best two wins in the league. The Boilermakers are:
- 0-1 against M
- 0-1 against IL
- 0-1 against Iowa
- 0-1 against Rutgers
Overall they are 2-4 against the B1G's .500 teams with the two wins over tOSU and the four losses listed above. So, as I see it, there are three main possibilities:
- Match-up issues: Purdue just matches up really well against tOSU and/or tOSU just matches up really poorly against PU. Ie, Purdue really isn't THAT good and tOSU really isn't THAT bad it is just a match-up issue specific to those two teams.
- Random chance: Maybe Purdue just happened to have great games both times out against tOSU and/or maybe tOSU just happened to have awful games both times out against PU. Ie, tOSU is actually the better team as evidenced by their better record in the B1G (overall, vs .500+, and vs top-11).
- Purdue is actually a better team than Ohio State but has had a relatively difficult schedule (11 of 12 B1G games against the top-11 teams) and has been a tad unlucky in some of those losses.
FWIW, I think it is probably mostly a mix of #1 and #2: Ohio State had difficulty with PU's size inside (#1) and both games were close (#2). In the game in West Lafayette the Boilermakers led the entire second half and at one point led by 14 but it was a six point game under 3 minutes and that is pretty much anybody's game. The game in Columbus was even closer with Ohio State leading for most of the game and holding a lead with under a minute to play before losing by just two points.
I'm curious your thoughts because if Purdue is as good as their wins over Ohio State indicate then they should finish well since there are no games remaining against teams with better records and only one game against a team that is close (vsUW). OTOH, if you ignore the two wins over tOSU, the Boilermakers do NOT look like a good team. Ignoring those they are 0-4 against .500+ and only 4-5 against the top-11.
Fair question. I don't think Purdue is "better" than OSU, but rather that it's not the best matchup--and I believe in both games OSU was down a few players?
Regarding point #3, the truth is that the Purdue schedule was HEAVILY front-loaded, and IMHO they acquitted themselves well.
If you look at KenPom (#24) and Sagarin (#21), I think it's probably a fair assessment of where this team is. But 5 conference teams are in the top 11... And Purdue is not at that level.
I think if we broke down tiers, I might go with something like:
- Michigan, Illinois, Iowa
- Ohio State, Wisconsin
- Purdue, Rutgers
- Indiana, Maryland
Purdue's a good team and should do well the rest of the way, but I think it was really fortuitous in both matchup with OSU and *when* that matchup occurred with OSU having players out or IIRC just returned from being out.
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It’s possibly my UW background. Their clock grinding stuff is about control and getting up a shot.
A pick and pop or pick and roll and replace generate good looks. I think at times, a slightly tough 3 can be a pretty make-able shot depending on the shooter. The worry with post ups or drives is folks can get handsy and that over gets overlooked when you’re up. Granted, my school is low on good drivers every year and worry the ball can be driven out of the post.
Obviously depends on the shooter. I'd be complaining less if Sasha got an open look rather than Ivey, even though he was the one that won the OSU game with his late 3-pointers.
And agreed regarding driving. Purdue typically hasn't had a "break down the opponent off the dribble" guy--especially when we have monsters clogging up the paint. Oddly Ivey is one of those "driving" guys.
But I look at this way... Tre doesn't have the highest percentage compared to past Purdue bigs, but is making over 52% of his shots. Ivey is making under 48% from 2, and under 19% from 3.
While you sometimes look at things from an "expected points" strategy over the course of a game, i.e. a 60% post player is taking the same value shot as a 40% 3 point shooter, I think when you get into that end-of-game-with-a-lead scenario that 60% post option is much more important to win probability. Because possessions are limited and getting ANYTHING out of it--even going 50% on shooting two free throws--is critical.
The big thing is to avoid an empty possession, and so you want your highest-probability shots, not your highest expected points shots.
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I just like the idea of having the option of drawing contact and getting to the foul line when up and in the bonus.
IMO, maybe from watching too much Big East Basketball back in the 80's, ya gotta recruit kids that can drive the lane, beat someone off the dribble
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Michigan is looking at possibly needing to make up 6 games. Who knows how the rest of this season plays out with other teams and possible postponements. It will be interesting to see how the regular season champion is determined if they are unable to make up enough games.
Nebraska really doesn't matter, but.... they've only played 5 conference games and postponed 6.
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Michigan is looking at possibly needing to make up 6 games. Who knows how the rest of this season plays out with other teams and possible postponements. It will be interesting to see how the regular season champion is determined if they are unable to make up enough games.
I assume that Ohio State will just be declared the champion again right?
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Fair question. I don't think Purdue is "better" than OSU, but rather that it's not the best matchup--and I believe in both games OSU was down a few players?
Regarding point #3, the truth is that the Purdue schedule was HEAVILY front-loaded, and IMHO they acquitted themselves well.
If you look at KenPom (#24) and Sagarin (#21), I think it's probably a fair assessment of where this team is. But 5 conference teams are in the top 11... And Purdue is not at that level.
I think if we broke down tiers, I might go with something like:
- Michigan, Illinois, Iowa
- Ohio State, Wisconsin
- Purdue, Rutgers
- Indiana, Maryland
Purdue's a good team and should do well the rest of the way, but I think it was really fortuitous in both matchup with OSU and *when* that matchup occurred with OSU having players out or IIRC just returned from being out.
FWIW, here is how I am looking at it:
(https://i.imgur.com/m6mA6Qt.png)
Note that Purdue is 2-4 against the .500+ teams with their only two wins coming against Ohio State while Ohio State is 4-2 with their only two losses coming against Purdue. That gives me pause in analyzing both of those teams. If those results are largely due to specific match-up issues or players out or anything else that is not expected to replicate then:
- Purdue looks pretty weak at 0-4 against .500+ teams and
- Ohio State looks great at 4-0 against .500+ teams.
I'll add that Ohio State's loss to Northwestern is the biggest outlier of the year so far in the league. I'm not saying that just as an OSU homer trying to write off a loss. I'm looking at the results and the other four losses to bottom-3 teams (NU, MSU, UNL) were:
- by .500 Rutgers (@MSU) - and it is at least arguable that this happened when MSU was a MUCH better team
- by sub .500 Indiana (vs NU)
- by each other (MSU @ NU and UNL vs MSU)
Ohio State's loss at NU is very different. The Buckeyes have a MUCH better overall record than RU, IU, MSU, and UNL. Also those four teams have abysmal records against the .500+ teams and sub .500 records against the top-11 while the Buckeyes are 4-2 against the .500+ teams and 5-3 against the top-11. This is pretty much the dictionary definition of an outlier.
Vis-a-vis Purdue:
This is what the Boilermakers have left:
- One against .500+ (vsUW)
- Four against the top-11 (vsUW, vsIU, @MN, @PSU)
- Three games against the bottom-3 (vsNU, vsMSU, @UNL).
That is a LOT lighter than what they have been through:
- Six against .500+ (vsM, @IL, @IA, 2xtOSU, @RU)
- 11 against the top-11 (vsM, @IL, @IA, 2xtOSU, @RU, @IU, vsMN, 2xUMD, vsPSU)
- One against the bottom-3 (@MSU)
Vis-a-vis Ohio State:
This is what the Buckeyes have left:
- Four against .500+ (vsM, vsIL, 2xIA)
- Seven against the top-11 (vsM, vsIL, 2xIA, vsIU, @UMD, @PSU)
- One against the bottom-3 (@MSU)
Compared to what they have been through:
- Six against .500+ (@IL, @UW, 2xPU, 2xRU)
- Eight against the top-11 (@IL, @UW, 2xPU, 2xRU, @MN, vsPSU)
- Four against the bottom-3 (2xNU, vsMSU, vsUNL)
Right now a LOT of how I feel about both PU and tOSU depends on whether I view those PU>tOSU games as non-replicable outliers (for whatever reasons) or as normal results.
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Note that Purdue is 2-4 against the .500+ teams with their only two wins coming against Ohio State while Ohio State is 4-2 with their only two losses coming against Purdue. That gives me pause in analyzing both of those teams. If those results are largely due to specific match-up issues or players out or anything else that is not expected to replicate then:
- Purdue looks pretty weak at 0-4 against .500+ teams and
- Ohio State looks great at 4-0 against .500+ teams.
Right now a LOT of how I feel about both PU and tOSU depends on whether I view those PU>tOSU games as non-replicable outliers (for whatever reasons) or as normal results.
Where I think you go wrong is in removing those results when trying to determine how good or bad PU or OSU look.
While there may be specific reasons why that matchup is good or bad for each team, it's true that there are ALWAYS specific teams that are better or worse matchups for any given team. You have to expect that.
It's like the old "well if you take the big plays away, that offense looked pretty pedestrian" canard...
Purdue's a decent team. Not a great team. Not a team that should be in contention for the league crown. But solidly top half of the B1G sort of team.
Ohio State is IMHO a better team than Purdue, despite the double H2H result. They may be non-replicable outliers, or they could [due to matchup] be replicable outliers.
Either way, Purdue to me looks like a team that I wouldn't be shocked to see them as 2-4 against the >.500 teams in the conference, and Ohio State is a team that I'm not shocked to see as 4-2 against the >.500 teams in the conference, regardless of which team those wins and losses come from.
Right now OSU is 1 game ahead in the B1G standings with a more difficult schedule left to play. But I think they're a stronger team, so I expect they'll probably finish the regular season still ahead in the B1G standings despite the more difficult remaining schedule.
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Where I think you go wrong is in removing those results when trying to determine how good or bad PU or OSU look.
Just to clarify, I threw that out there as an "if those results were outliers" thing, it isn't a deeply held belief.
While there may be specific reasons why that matchup is good or bad for each team, it's true that there are ALWAYS specific teams that are better or worse matchups for any given team. You have to expect that.
Fair point.
It's like the old "well if you take the big plays away, that offense looked pretty pedestrian" canard...
Purdue's a decent team. Not a great team. Not a team that should be in contention for the league crown. But solidly top half of the B1G sort of team.
I agree on both of those. If your offense is built on big plays then it doesn't matter they they aren't very good in the rest of their plays so long as they achieve enough of those.
Honestly, I came here asking this because as an Ohio State fan who hasn't seen much of Purdue other than them twice beating my team which is fourth in the standings and only 1/2 game out of second and owns wins over #2 and #5 (both on the road) I was internally thinking of Purdue as MUCH better than 7-5. Based on what I've seen (mostly just them beating tOSU twice) I more or less expected them to be 9-3 or better. They aren't so I came here basically wondering if that was because they aren't actually as good as they looked vs tOSU or because they aren't actually as bad as they have performed in their other 10 games (5-5, 0-4 against .500+).
Ohio State is IMHO a better team than Purdue, despite the double H2H result. They may be non-replicable outliers, or they could [due to matchup] be replicable outliers.
Well, we'll see. Honestly, I'm still not sure that the Buckeyes are all that good. The loss to Northwestern troubles me. None of the other good teams have done that. The close win at home over PSU troubles me a bit. OTOH, the road wins over IL and UW are obviously good so . . . we'll see.
Either way, Purdue to me looks like a team that I wouldn't be shocked to see them as 2-4 against the >.500 teams in the conference, and Ohio State is a team that I'm not shocked to see as 4-2 against the >.500 teams in the conference, regardless of which team those wins and losses come from.
I get where you are coming from here. Assume the following for a minute:
- Ohio State had held on to their late lead in Columbus over PU and won that game, and
- Purdue had mounted a comeback in Champaign and beaten Illinois, and
- Illinois had finished their comeback against Ohio State and beaten the Buckeyes in Champaign
If those three things had happened every team would have the same record that they have now but this wouldn't have been a question. tOSU and PU would be 1-1 against each other and PU would be 1-3 against the rest of the .500+ while tOSU was 3-1 against the rest of the .500+.
It is only a question for me right now because of the oddity of Purdue's ONLY .500+ wins and tOSU's ONLY .500+ losses coming against each other. That makes me wonder . . .
Right now OSU is 1 game ahead in the B1G standings with a more difficult schedule left to play. But I think they're a stronger team, so I expect they'll probably finish the regular season still ahead in the B1G standings despite the more difficult remaining schedule.
We'll see. Purdue has played a tough schedule so far (6x .500+ and 11x top-11) but Ohio State's hasn't been much easier (6x .500+ and 8x top-11). The difference is that Ohio State's overall schedule looks to be tougher because what the Buckeyes have left is a lot tougher (4x .500+ and 7x top-11 vs 1x .500+ and 4x top-11).
I definitely wouldn't count Purdue out of the race for the top-4 slots. They are in sixth now but I think that their remaining schedule is easier than #2-5 and they are only one game behind #4/5 and 1.5 games behind #2/3 so it could definitely happen.
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Honestly, I came here asking this because as an Ohio State fan who hasn't seen much of Purdue other than them twice beating my team which is fourth in the standings and only 1/2 game out of second and owns wins over #2 and #5 (both on the road) I was internally thinking of Purdue as MUCH better than 7-5. Based on what I've seen (mostly just them beating tOSU twice) I more or less expected them to be 9-3 or better. They aren't so I came here basically wondering if that was because they aren't actually as good as they looked vs tOSU or because they aren't actually as bad as they have performed in their other 10 games (5-5, 0-4 against .500+).
It's a weird year for Purdue. Fans came into this season thinking that this was the rebuilding year to get us to 21-22 and 22-23.
Purdue is the youngest team in the Big Ten.
- There are no seniors on this team. That would have been Matt Haarms and Nojel Eastern, who both transferred.
- You have true juniors Trevion Williams, and Eric Hunter, and RS juniors Aaron Wheeler and Sasha Stefanovich. Wheeler isn't really a starter at this point.
- The only sophomore getting minutes on the team is Isaiah Thompson, who I've previously lamented as an OK reserve, but doesn't have the size and strength to be a good PG at the B1G level at this point. There is another RS Soph big, Emmanuel Dowuona, but he has been out all season with "breathing problems" so hasn't seen a single minute on the court.
- Then you have the freshmen. RS Fresh Mason Gillis (starts at the 4), RS Fresh Brandon Newman (starts at one guard spot), Zach Edey (backup to Trevion), Jaden Ivey, and Ethan Morton.
We're starting two freshmen and two others are getting VERY solid rotation minutes.
This being a COVID season, didn't have anything near the same level of prep that a typical season would get.
Eric Hunter and Jaden Ivey both suffered foot/ankle injuries that took them out of commission at the beginning of the season, with both missing time. Ethan Morton had mono to start the season and didn't have the same level of prep time as the rest of the team.
What does it mean, when you put it all together? This is a very talented team, that is also very inexperienced and streaky. They're growing up before our eyes, and they're a MUCH different team in February than they were in November/December.
Long story short? Don't try too hard to analyze this Purdue team. Especially if you haven't watched much more than two games. Because they're not experienced and cohesive enough to do what they "should" do on a consistent basis. It's more of a rollercoaster.
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Tonight's lineup:
- #7, tied for 4th/5th B1G 8-4/14-4 Ohio State at #8, 3rd B1G 7-3/13-4 Iowa, 7pm ESPN
- tied for 8/9 B1G 4-6/11/6 Minnesota at 7th B1G 6-6/10-6 Rutgers, 9pm FS1
Iowa is favored by 5.5 over the visiting Buckeyes but the Hawkeyes are on a VERY short turnaround after a tough game against Michigan State Tuesday night. This could present a fortuitous opportunity for the Buckeyes. Also the Buckeyes are on a bit of a tear having won three straight and six of seven while Iowa may be in a bit of a slump having lost two of their last three and in the win they struggled mightily with an MSU team that tOSU defeated handily and Rutgers absolutely annihilated. It is difficult to tell how much of that is MSU improving but it isn't a good sign for Iowa.
If Ohio State wins:
- The Buckeyes would improve to 9-4 and alone in 3rd place with the most wins in the league (albeit, more losses than first and second place Michigan and Illinois).
- Iowa would fall to 7-4 and 5th place 1/2 game behind fourth place UW and 1/2 game ahead of sixth place Purdue.
If Iowa wins:
- Iowa would move into a tie with IL for 2nd/3rd and a tie with M, IL, tOSU, and UW for most wins in the B1G.
- Ohio State would fall to 8-5 and 5th place 1/2 game behind fourth place UW and 1/2 game ahead of sixth place Purdue.
Rutgers is favored by 6 over the visiting Gophers. The Scarlet Knights have won three straight including a road win in Bloomington and an absolute whipping of MSU. Minnesota has lost two straight and four out of five but none of the losses were particularly bad (@M, @IA, vsUMD, @PU).
If Minnesota wins:
- The Gophers improve to 5-6 and alone in 8th place barely behind seventh place 6-7 Rutgers and 1/2 game ahead of ninth place 4-6 Indiana.
- Rutgers would fall to 6-7 and alone in 7th place 1.5 games behind sixth place PU and barely ahead of MN.
If Rutgers wins:
- The Scarlet Knights would go above .500 in the B1G for the first time since early January and would still be in seventh place but only 1/2 game behind sixth place Purdue and 2.5 games ahead of eighth place Indiana.
- Minnesota would fall to 4-7 and tied with UMD for 9th/10th 1/2 game behind eighth place Indiana and 1/2 game ahead of 11th place PSU.
NCAA seeds (per worldwide leader):
- #2 Ohio
- #3 Iowa
- #7 Rutgers
- #8 Minnesota
Thus, the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes are playing for high-end seed positioning while the Scarlet Knights and Gophers are both pretty close to the bubble so the loser probably drops into bubble territory.
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No idea how OSU tries to guard Garza tonight. Poorly, I'd imagine.
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Does the B1G have any "locks" yet?
I don't think so, but that may depend on how many more games the Wolverines postpone and whether or not any of their postponed games get rescheduled.
First let me reiterate as I do every year around this time that I use a VERY literal definition of the word "lock". I know that at least @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) is on board with me in this, not sure about everybody else. My working definition of "lock" is this:
"A lock is a team that could lose all of their remaining regular season games then get the worst possible opponent in their league tournament opener and lose that too and they would STILL be almost certain to get in to the NCAA tournament."
Michigan just might be a lock already. They are currently 8-1/13-1. They were originally supposed to play 20 B1G games. If they played (and lost) all of them they would finish the regular season just 8-12/13-12 and if they went on to lose their B1G Tournament opener they would be only 8-13/13-13. Additionally, they would be on a 12 game losing streak and would only have two wins after January 12. The committee dropped "last 10" from their official considerations but you can't convince me that a finish THAT awful wouldn't be taken into consideration.
That said, none of Michigan's "postponed" games have been rescheduled and we really don't know how aggressive the league is going to be about getting those games played. Furthermore, I saw some chatter that Michigan's game against Illinois (2/11) is in danger of being postponed as well. If they don't play Illinois and don't make up any of the postponements then they will only end up playing 15 league games (or less if there are further cancellations either by them or by opponents) in which case their worst case scenario would be 8-8/13-8 even with a loss in the league tournament opener. That just might get them in.
Illinois, Ohio State, and Wisconsin each also have eight B1G wins. They aren't locks yet (per my above definition) but they are getting close. IMHO, the league is so strong this year that .500 might get a team in and anything over that (including BTT) would probably be a lock so my working theory is that any team that gets to 11 B1G wins is a lock because their worst case scenario even with all games played and a BTT loss would be 11-10 in league games. Iowa and Purdue are right behind that with seven wins each.
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Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of your definition of "LOCK". If you are mentioning a team possibly losing to Nebraska knocking them out as a reason not to have them be a lock, then I think it's way too tight. Nebraska is the only team I felt comfortable putting in that definition though, so it may make sense this year.
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Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of your definition of "LOCK". If you are mentioning a team possibly losing to Nebraska knocking them out as a reason not to have them be a lock, then I think it's way too tight. Nebraska is the only team I felt comfortable putting in that definition though, so it may make sense this year.
I get it. The chance of Michigan missing the tournament at this point are probably less than 1000:1 BUT I've always hated it when some site calls a team a "lock" then does an update and that team is no longer a lock. I stick with my very literal definition such that even if a team does have a horrible game and loses to Nebraska I don't have to pull a team out of "lock" because I already took that (however remote) possibility into consideration before I declared them to be a "lock" in the first place.
This year is a good example. The games remaining on Michigan's schedule right now are:
- vs IL, #12 AP, #7 BPI
- @ UW, #19 AP, #13 BPI
- vs RU, #40 BPI
- @ tOSU, #7 AP, #12 BPI
- @ IU, #29 BPI
- vs IA, #8 AP, #3 BPI
- @ MSU, #58 BPI
It isn't inconceivable that Michigan could lose all of those games. If they come back as rusty as MSU did they'll lose at least the first couple. The worst team on that list is #58 MSU but that is a road rivalry game and I think all of us would agree that the Spartans at least COULD become a much better team than they appear to be right now. None of those would be a particularly bad nor a particularly shocking loss.
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I get it. The chance of Michigan missing the tournament at this point are probably less than 1000:1 BUT I've always hated it when some site calls a team a "lock" then does an update and that team is no longer a lock. I stick with my very literal definition such that even if a team does have a horrible game and loses to Nebraska I don't have to pull a team out of "lock" because I already took that (however remote) possibility into consideration before I declared them to be a "lock" in the first place.
This year is a good example. The games remaining on Michigan's schedule right now are:
- vs IL, #12 AP, #7 BPI
- @ UW, #19 AP, #13 BPI
- vs RU, #40 BPI
- @ tOSU, #7 AP, #12 BPI
- @ IU, #29 BPI
- vs IA, #8 AP, #3 BPI
- @ MSU, #58 BPI
It isn't inconceivable that Michigan could lose all of those games. If they come back as rusty as MSU did they'll lose at least the first couple. The worst team on that list is #58 MSU but that is a road rivalry game and I think all of us would agree that the Spartans at least COULD become a much better team than they appear to be right now. None of those would be a particularly bad nor a particularly shocking loss.
Wow. That's a pretty brutal remaining schedule, to be honest.
Only <.500 teams are IU and MSU, and those are both on the road. Both are teams with talent, so could have a big night at any moment.
I completely agree that it's inconceivable that Michigan could go 0-7 in those games. I could see 3-4 / 4-3 against that slate easily though.
They'd still be in the NCAA field, but they could get hammered in their seed line with the way this regular season could potentially finish out for them.
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Wow. That's a pretty brutal remaining schedule, to be honest.
Only <.500 teams are IU and MSU, and those are both on the road. Both are teams with talent, so could have a big night at any moment.
I completely agree that it's inconceivable that Michigan could go 0-7 in those games. I could see 3-4 / 4-3 against that slate easily though.
They'd still be in the NCAA field, but they could get hammered in their seed line with the way this regular season could potentially finish out for them.
Per Torvik, it's the 7th hardest remaining schedule in the league because the Big Ten is brutal. Two hardest are OSU and UW.
OSU schedule by KenPom the rest of the way
@ No. 4
@ No. 42
No. 27
@ No. 37
No. 3
@ No. 62
No. 4
No. 5
UW
@ No. 5
@ No. 122
No. 3
No. 4
@ No. 75
No. 5
@ No. 23
@ No. 4
I'm not excited.
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Per Torvik, it's the 7th hardest remaining schedule in the league because the Big Ten is brutal. Two hardest are OSU and UW.
It would not be surprising at all to see one or both of those two stumble a bit in the standings. Per the way I am tracking things they are:
Wisconsin:
- 1-2 against the .500+ teams: Six left (vsM, 2xIL, 2xIA, @PU)
- 7-2 against the <.500 teams: Two left (@NU, @UNL)
- 5-4 against the top-11 (all but MSU, NU, UNL): Six left (vsM, 2xIL, 2xIA, @PU)
- 3-0 against the bottom 3: One left (@UNL)
Ohio State
- 4-2 against the .500+ teams: Four left (vsM, vsIL, 2xIA)
- 4-2 against the <.500 teams: Four left (vsIU, @UMD, @PSU, @MSU)
- 5-3 against the top-11: Seven left (vsM, vsIL, 2xIA, vs IU, @UMD, @PSU)
- 3-1 against the bottom 3: One left (@MSU)
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Always love ESPN broadcasts of B1G basketball so I can hear about Duke and North Carolina
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First team to 100 wins?
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Fun first half, despite Bucks getting boned by the refs in the first half. Definitely a game where you can't go cold.
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Big time win for the Buckeyes on the road against Iowa. Ahrens looked ice cold early then hit three threes that really helped the cause. They decided to collapse on Garza, which I suppose was fine, as Garza had 16 points, but it left a lot of open looks for the Hawkeyes. Still, not complaining. This team is so much better than I thought they were.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtbXf1FXUAUYmGt?format=jpg&name=small)
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Huge win for the Buckeyes, and I don't think it does anything to minimize Iowa. Playing games Tuesday and Thursday is rough!
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Fun game. Nice to win 7 of 8, though that Purdue loss was probably the most painful loss of the Holtmann era for me.
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With their loss at PSU last night, Maryland's path to the tournament is getting pretty narrow.
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With their loss at PSU last night, Maryland's path to the tournament is getting pretty narrow.
Ah great, always like visiting teams who are in must win situations
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Ah great, always like visiting teams who are in must win situations
Didn't seem to matter last weekend
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Didn't seem to matter last weekend
It is a little different on Monday, the Buckeyes are visiting the (possibility) desperate opponent.
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IMHO, this is the make or break week for the Spartans. In the eight days starting today they have:
- Vs Nebraska today
- Vs PSU Tuesday
- Vs Iowa next Saturday
Winning those three would get them to 11-7/5-7 and I think they would have a shot but any losses in there would be problematic because after that it gets tougher.
They do seem to have improved dramatically over the last three games:
- Curb-stomped at Rutgers
- Solidly defeated at tOSU
- Close loss at Iowa.
They are all losses but #2 was a MUCH better performance than #1 and #3 was much better than #2 so the trajectory is good.
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Badgers can't get in striking distance
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Badgers can't get in striking distance
Missed open 3s, generally played not great beyond that, catching good games from both Illinois' stars. I'm not the most upbeat about it.
I keep reading an in-game thread on a UW board, and man, it's inspiring me to be more sassy than I should be.
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Ayo was an ace today, and Cockburn remembered he is built like Shaq.
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Ayo was an ace today, and Cockburn remembered he is built like Shaq.
I don't think UW made them work hard enough, but they also balled. This was gonna be UW's second-hardest game left. They didn't play as well as I hoped, but when you miss like seven open 3s early when the game is close, well, you're often gonna lose on the road against top-10 quality teams.
I didn't mind them fighting back a little. Not maintaining the push was annoying, but it happens.
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This is the first MSU game I've watched since the WIN against Rutgers a month ago. Same stuff. MSU is always high in TOs, because they want to run. So the turnovers are sort of balanced out by the easy baskets. (Which Ken Pom doesn't really account for)
This team is just turnover prone, without the easy buckets
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This many turnovers + this big of a foul discrpancy + no points from Houser = a loss against any other team
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Due to some rescheduling b/c of Covid WVU will now play 6 games over the next two weeks starting today. Those 6 games are:
Vs. #23 Kansas- Won
@ #13 Texas Tech
Vs. #9 Oklahoma
@ #2 Baylor
Vs. #2 Baylor
@ #6 Texas
So, that should be fun.
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Due to some rescheduling b/c of Covid WVU will now play 6 games over the next two weeks starting today. Those 6 games are:
Vs. #23 Kansas- Won
@ #13 Texas Tech
Vs. #9 Oklahoma
@ #2 Baylor
Vs. #2 Baylor
@ #6 Texas
So, that should be fun.
That is more quality opponents than Gonzaga will have all year including the tournament.
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That is more quality opponents than Gonzaga will have all year including the tournament.
Yep. They Big Ten should let the Zags in as a basketball only member tomorrow.
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Really thought UW would be better than they are this year.
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Really thought UW would be better than they are this year.
It’s annoying because there’s no good reason other than guys who can play reasonably well are not. It’s like the opposite of Brevin Pritzl last year.
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I thought UNL would be better
hard to anticipate ANY team being this bad
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It's a screwed up year.
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Wiscy is still 11th on KenPom and T Rank. Not exactly slumming it. Nebraska, OTOH, yersh.
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Yep. They Big Ten should let the Zags in as a basketball only member tomorrow.
I never suggested that. Let's just be a little more realistic about their challenges and accomplishments. They have only a very few somewhat challenging league games and being undefeated isn't THAT big of an accomplishment since they simply don't face the level of opposition that Baylor or any major conference team faces.
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I never suggested that. Let's just be a little more realistic about their challenges and accomplishments. They have only a very few somewhat challenging league games and being undefeated isn't THAT big of an accomplishment since they simply don't face the level of opposition that Baylor or any major conference team faces.
Is someone not realistic about their challenges and accomplishments? I don't think anyone worth much is saying "Hey, what Gonzaga has done, being undefeated at this point, is more impressive than what Baylor has done." (Yes, I know Gonzaga leads the polls, which is in part because the polls are stupid and not built on accomplishments anyway)
It just seems like a hobbyhorse that doesn't go anywhere. They don't "accomplish" more because the structure of the sport makes it impossible. Perhaps that is their challenge. I'm sure if you offered them a chance to get challenged more and gain more accomplishments, they'd say sign us up. But that won't be offered.
I suppose I might have been too snarky, but nit-picking have-nots just draws that out of me.
Edit: I will say, your critiques on the bottom part of the tournament allowed me to crystalize what I think is good about it, and I appreciate that greatly.
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My roommate told me Iowa went up 13 in the first 7 minutes and I never went back to check on that game.
But Iowa lost and Archie gets a rather nice pelt to hang on the wall.
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My roommate told me Iowa went up 13 in the first 7 minutes and I never went back to check on that game.
But Iowa lost and Archie gets a rather nice pelt to hang on the wall.
Is Iowa in free-fall?
Not long ago they were closing in on a potential #1 seed. Now they have lost two straight and four out of five including getting swept by sub .500 IU and losing another home game (tOSU).
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Is Iowa in free-fall?
Not long ago they were closing in on a potential #1 seed. Now they have lost two straight and four out of five including getting swept by sub .500 IU and losing another home game (tOSU).
And the one win was at home, over the 13th place team, in a game that MSU missed a game tying shot in the final seconds.
You have to play a LITTLE defense Fran.
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Is Iowa in free-fall?
Not long ago they were closing in on a potential #1 seed. Now they have lost two straight and four out of five including getting swept by sub .500 IU and losing another home game (tOSU).
The weirdest part of today's game is their offense seemed to have failed them.
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Iowa is missing one of their better players in Frederick. Not much margin for error in this league.
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Is Iowa in free-fall?
Not long ago they were closing in on a potential #1 seed. Now they have lost two straight and four out of five including getting swept by sub .500 IU and losing another home game (tOSU).
2016 all over again. It's the Fran Fade I guess.
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Not sure about medina, but I think I am ready to put Illinois and Ohio State as locks.
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Not sure about medina, but I think I am ready to put Illinois and Ohio State as locks.
They are certainly awfully close if they aren't.
Illinois:
The Illini are 13-5/9-3. In theory the B1G is supposed to play 20 games meaning eight more for Illinois plus the BTT. If they were to play all of those their worst-case-scenario would be to end the season on a nine game losing streak and finish 13-14/9-12. I don't think that would get them in.
OTOH, with their February 11 game at Michigan now "postponed" there are only five more regular season games on their schedule and two of those are home games against NU and UNL. Additionally their five losses are all "good":
- Vs Baylor, neutral site by 13
- @ Mizzo by 3
- @ Rutgers by 3
- Vs Maryland by 3
- Vs Ohio State by 6
Even if they did lose all of those and their BTT opener they would finish 13-11/9-9. That just might be enough and obviously the chance of them losing home games to both NU AND UNL are pretty remote so they are at least REALLY close.
Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are 15-4/9-4 and, at least for now, they still have all their B1G games on the schedule. Thus, their worst-case-scenario would be to end the season on an eight game losing streak (including BTT opener) and finish 15-12/9-12. I'm not sure that would be enough in part because the Buckeyes' losses aren't quite as "good":
- @ Purdue by 7
- @ Northwestern by 1
- @ Minnesota by 17
- Vs Purdue by 2
The two Purdue losses aren't bad but the loss to Northwestern was to a weak opponent and the loss in Minneapolis is bad because the Buckeyes got drilled.
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Buckeyes a 1 seed on t rank right now, which is pretty crazy because we were questioning whether they would make the tournament earlier in the season.
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I'm not seeing OSU ending up as a 1. And I'm pretty worried about tonight's game.
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I'm not seeing OSU ending up as a 1. And I'm pretty worried about tonight's game.
Agreed on both. Maryland is getting pretty desperate and the Buckeyes are going to their place.
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Michigan's women's team can play Purdue apparently on Thursday but the men can't host Illinois?
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I'm not seeing OSU ending up as a 1. And I'm pretty worried about tonight's game.
I worry about every game but I'm most worried about staying awake with that 9 pm tip
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Giant cup of coffee before the game, and then a couple shots of Zzz-Quil after the game. O0
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Michigan's women's team can play Purdue apparently on Thursday but the men can't host Illinois?
It's quite weird how the Big Ten is taking care of them. That's never happened before
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Posting this here mainly so I can use the image... But thought some might think it's interesting.
(https://i.imgur.com/eCMnKl6.png)
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I see now that Illinois will travel to Nebraska on Friday for a make up. Safe to assume that might have been in motion for a bit and assumed that the Thursday game with Michigan would be moved. Illinois' game against MSU has been rescheduled to the 23rd. A home game against Nebraska will be moved to March apparently.
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Weird first half for OSU, where they struggled defensively and getting in the paint, but did get some threes.
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really tough to watch the Huskers miss easy/open shots
dunks, layups, 3 footers, 6 footers, 10 footers, 3 pointers and free throws
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Checking back Medina. I'm thinking even if the Bucks lose out, at 16-11 with 9 quad 1 wins, they would get in. Since Illinois can actually have a losing record, we can wait on them just a bit longer.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtwcJT6XcAE0kGD?format=jpg&name=medium)
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Checking back Medina. I'm thinking even if the Bucks lose out, at 16-11 with 9 quad 1 wins, they would get in. Since Illinois can actually have a losing record, we can wait on them just a bit longer.
I agree on Ohio State. Obviously finishing on a seven game losing streak wouldn't be ideal but none of those (BTT possibly aside) would be particularly bad and, as you noted, the Buckeyes have a slew of quality wins.
I'm actually thinking that Michigan and Illinois might be locks as well. Even if they actually did play 20 regular season B1G games their worst case scenarios would be:
- 13-13/8-13 for Michigan
- 13-14/9-12 for Illinois
Both of those would be close but I highly doubt that either, especially Michigan, will actually play all 20 Regular season B1G games. Right now (near as I can tell) the Illini have a grand total of 18 regular season B1G games played and scheduled while the Wolverines have 15. If that is all they play then their worst-case-scenarios are:
- 13-8/8-8 for Michigan
- 13-12/9-10 for Illinois.
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Home stretch KenPom
1. Michigan (3)
2. Illinois (4)
3. Iowa (5)
4. OSU (7)
5. Wisconsin (11)
6. Purdue (22)
7. Rutgers (24)
8. Indiana (26)
9. Penn State (30)
10. Minnesota (40)
11. Maryland (44)
12. MSU (62)
13. Northwestern (72)
14. Nebraska (128)
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Home stretch KenPom
1. Michigan (3)
2. Illinois (4)
3. Iowa (5)
4. OSU (7)
5. Wisconsin (11)
6. Purdue (22)
7. Rutgers (24)
8. Indiana (26)
9. Penn State (30)
10. Minnesota (40)
11. Maryland (44)
12. MSU (62)
13. Northwestern (72)
14. Nebraska (128)
If there's ever been a year to scrap the auto-bids and just allow the 68 best teams in, I've never seen it. We need to be flexible
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If there's ever been a year to scrap the auto-bids and just allow the 68 best teams in, I've never seen it. We need to be flexible
LOL I dig it.
How many spots will the B1G get? Maryland, MSU, Penn State, and Indiana are hovering around .500 overall and probably need a couple games over that line to get consideration for an at large bid.
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LOL I dig it.
How many spots will the B1G get? Maryland, MSU, Penn State, and Indiana are hovering around .500 overall and probably need a couple games over that line to get consideration for an at large bid.
I've generally seen 9-11 being a mark for being in the mix
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If there's ever been a year to scrap the auto-bids and just allow the 68 best teams in, I've never seen it. We need to be flexible
The phrasing of this makes me think you are saying this would be a chance to scrap auto bids, but I'm not 100 percent sure.
(I'm strongly against scrapping them, but that's another matter)
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The phrasing of this makes me think you are saying this would be a chance to scrap auto bids, but I'm not 100 percent sure.
(I'm strongly against scrapping them, but that's another matter)
It was a joke, because MSU is #62
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The phrasing of this makes me think you are saying this would be a chance to scrap auto bids, but I'm not 100 percent sure.
(I'm strongly against scrapping them, but that's another matter)
I'm not necessairly against scrapping them, but it is ridiculously unfair to mediocre power conference teams that ~20 tallest midgets that are vastly inferior to them will dance every year while they watch on TV.
Additionally, auto-bids for crap conferences make exactly half of the first round games into ridiculous mismatches in which those tallest midgets win less than once in five tries (that is for the 13's against the 4's and it gets worse from there).
I feel that the tournament should be expanded by 12 teams (to 80) such that those tallest midgets (roughly the bottom four seeds) effectively have a play-in against a superior but yet beatable opponent. That way there would be more upsets, better games, and less mismatches.
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It was a joke, because MSU is #62
And now I’m the dummy. This week has been sluggish.
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I'm not necessairly against scrapping them, but it is ridiculously unfair to mediocre power conference teams that ~20 tallest midgets that are vastly inferior to them will dance every year while they watch on TV.
Additionally, auto-bids for crap conferences make exactly half of the first round games into ridiculous mismatches in which those tallest midgets win less than once in five tries (that is for the 13's against the 4's and it gets worse from there).
I feel that the tournament should be expanded by 12 teams (to 80) such that those tallest midgets (roughly the bottom four seeds) effectively have a play-in against a superior but yet beatable opponent. That way there would be more upsets, better games, and less mismatches.
Eh. No team below an 8 seed has ever won the whole thing.
I don't see the benefit to mediocre P5 teams. They're not going to win the whole thing, while at best they might give a few top seeds a slightly more competitive game before exiting stage left.
If you want to scrap auto-bids entirely, that's one thing. Those tallest midgets, much like the mediocre P5 teams, aren't going to win it. But I don't see any advantage to expanding the field to give more mediocre P5 teams a bid.
IMHO it's more meaningful for those auto-bid leagues to get to at least come in and get curb-stomped in the R64--or maybe grab a pelt before getting curbstomped in the R32--than it is for some mediocre P5 team to get that bid. At least they won their conference tournament. A mediocre P5 team that might be <.500 in conference play and narrowly above .500 overall doesn't deserve that reward.
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I'm not necessairly against scrapping them, but it is ridiculously unfair to mediocre power conference teams that ~20 tallest midgets that are vastly inferior to them will dance every year while they watch on TV.
Additionally, auto-bids for crap conferences make exactly half of the first round games into ridiculous mismatches in which those tallest midgets win less than once in five tries (that is for the 13's against the 4's and it gets worse from there).
I feel that the tournament should be expanded by 12 teams (to 80) such that those tallest midgets (roughly the bottom four seeds) effectively have a play-in against a superior but yet beatable opponent. That way there would be more upsets, better games, and less mismatches.
This invokes some byes? Interesting. When I get a bit I’ll lay out my thoughts in a more structured way.
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This invokes some byes? Interesting. When I get a bit I’ll lay out my thoughts in a more structured way.
It does, and in my opinion that is a subsidiary benefit. For the first weekend instead of having Thursday/Saturday and Friday/Sunday sites with the two busiest days being weekdays when most people are at work I would have Thursday/Saturday/Monday and Friday/Sunday/Tuesday sites with the two busiest days being Saturday and Sunday as follows:
- Thursday/Friday: Two games per site, eight games per day, 16 games total to get down to 64 teams.
- Saturday/Sunday: Four games per site, 16 games per day, 32 games total to get down to 32 teams.
- Monday/Tuesday: Two games per site, eight games per day, 16 games total to get down to 16 teams.
As a fan you could watch nearly all of these games without needing to take any time off work.
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Eh. No team below an 8 seed has ever won the whole thing.
This is true, but there is a substantial drop-off in performance right at the 12/13 line approximately where the committee is forced to switch from taking the next best team to being forced to take the next least short midget.
I'll go into more detail later but there is a reason everyone filling out a bracket at least considers a 5/12 upset but almost nobody projects a 4/13 or greater upset. Additionally, I can prove that it is NOT because 4's are dramatically better than 5's (they aren't), but rather because 13's are dramatically worse than 12's.
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I'm not necessairly against scrapping them, but it is ridiculously unfair to mediocre power conference teams that ~20 tallest midgets that are vastly inferior to them will dance every year while they watch on TV.
Additionally, auto-bids for crap conferences make exactly half of the first round games into ridiculous mismatches in which those tallest midgets win less than once in five tries (that is for the 13's against the 4's and it gets worse from there).
I feel that the tournament should be expanded by 12 teams (to 80) such that those tallest midgets (roughly the bottom four seeds) effectively have a play-in against a superior but yet beatable opponent. That way there would be more upsets, better games, and less mismatches.
So, this is the way I kinda approach it. Rather than say, this is a field of 64 which must be more inclusive, what if it instead is actually a field of about 44"
I did the math on the 2019 NCAA tournament. If you're a team in the top seven league, you had like a 45 percent chance of getting in (that might be a little muddled because 22-13 Oregon was an auto bid). This, this seems fair. If you're in a better league, you've got a 60-65 percent chance. If you're in the Pac-12 or something, less than 25.
So you assemble your field with like six non-top-7 league teams in that top 44 (Belmont was a generous add). You have four leagues that snuck in second teams, maybe one as a non-bid thief. This feels right. I don't know that I need 17-15 IU.
Now, if we just went small boat, we have some byes, get to 32, then go from there. But instead of byes, we get byes were you have to play someone bad. It turns byes into TV content. Some of it isn't good, but occasionally it is. If you got a bye and didn't win, well that's on you. You give two thirds of the sport a feeling of having a seat at the table. You create some other questions of unfairness, but in the end "I went to a school where being slightly above mediocrity gets me in" and not making it, the unfairness toward that group is not so concerning, at least to me. (On the mid-major side, you have those rare, two good enough team small conferences or one powerhouse squeezing out some solid 8-seed type strength team)
If those kids or their coaches wanted to take advantage of the lower level of competition offered at mid-majors, they likely had the option and still could have the option. It just all kind of fits.
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Now, if we just went small boat, we have some byes, get to 32, then go from there. But instead of byes, we get byes were you have to play someone bad. It turns byes into TV content. Some of it isn't good, but occasionally it is. If you got a bye and didn't win, well that's on you. You give two thirds of the sport a feeling of having a seat at the table. You create some other questions of unfairness, but in the end "I went to a school where being slightly above mediocrity gets me in" and not making it, the unfairness toward that group is not so concerning, at least to me. (On the mid-major side, you have those rare, two good enough team small conferences or one powerhouse squeezing out some solid 8-seed type strength team)
That's my feeling.
I certainly don't want to see even worse P5 schools getting in. So if it's between actual byes and de facto byes, with a slim chance of fun, I'll take Option B.
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The NCAA Tourney is one of the greatest creations in sports history and I'm still annoyed they changed it to 68 teams from 64. Every team has a chance to earn their way into it. It's uber fair. It's the fairest. It's also the most fun. When you have the most fair and most fun postseason in sports, you don't go around changing things.
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some folks is just never satisfied
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This is true, but there is a substantial drop-off in performance right at the 12/13 line approximately where the committee is forced to switch from taking the next best team to being forced to take the next least short midget.
I'll go into more detail later but there is a reason everyone filling out a bracket at least considers a 5/12 upset but almost nobody projects a 4/13 or greater upset. Additionally, I can prove that it is NOT because 4's are dramatically better than 5's (they aren't), but rather because 13's are dramatically worse than 12's.
But what is the goal of the change?
- If you want more basketball, then fine. 80 teams, let the tallest midgets stay, and let some mediocre P5 teams in. But it won't be better basketball. You'll have two issues. First, the "bad basketball" of watching tall midgets get slaughtered doesn't go away. They just get slaughtered by mediocre P5 teams. Second, you actually increase the chances that the top seeds will get knocked out... But still not by teams with legit championship hopes. So you devalue the product by increasing the chance the top seeds aren't around for the S16, the E8, the FF.
- If you want better basketball, I can see getting rid of auto-bids and just taking the top 64 teams. It still has the problem above where the top teams have a higher chance of first round upsets than today, but at least you get rid of the slaughter of the tall midgets. So it's better in the sense that those first round games are maybe a little more competitivel.
- If you want the best basketball, just get rid of autobids, cut the field to 48, and give the top 4 seeds a first round bye. It won't be as exciting for fans rooting on Cinderella, and it won't ever happen because there's no way TPTB are going to forego the money of reducing the field size. But it'll be universally better basketball compared to what we have.
I just don't understand the value of going to 80 teams and letting in more mediocre power conference teams, though. What's the point?
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I imagine Coach K would be super cool with Duke having a 6-0 negative foul discrepancy against Clemson
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Imagine whining to the refs when they called you for 1 foul in 9 minutes.
Still, PSU +4 seemed like an easy bet
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Nothing to see here, just back to back home losses to Penn State
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But what is the goal of the change?
- If you want more basketball, then fine. 80 teams, let the tallest midgets stay, and let some mediocre P5 teams in. But it won't be better basketball. You'll have two issues. First, the "bad basketball" of watching tall midgets get slaughtered doesn't go away. They just get slaughtered by mediocre P5 teams. Second, you actually increase the chances that the top seeds will get knocked out... But still not by teams with legit championship hopes. So you devalue the product by increasing the chance the top seeds aren't around for the S16, the E8, the FF.
- If you want better basketball, I can see getting rid of auto-bids and just taking the top 64 teams. It still has the problem above where the top teams have a higher chance of first round upsets than today, but at least you get rid of the slaughter of the tall midgets. So it's better in the sense that those first round games are maybe a little more competitivel.
- If you want the best basketball, just get rid of autobids, cut the field to 48, and give the top 4 seeds a first round bye. It won't be as exciting for fans rooting on Cinderella, and it won't ever happen because there's no way TPTB are going to forego the money of reducing the field size. But it'll be universally better basketball compared to what we have.
I just don't understand the value of going to 80 teams and letting in more mediocre power conference teams, though. What's the point?
The point to me, is twofold:
First, as I've said, it seems ridiculously unfair to me that mediocre major conference teams get passed over by ~20 tallest midgets that are VASTLY inferior to said mediocre major conference midlings.
I'm not talking about league tournament cinderellas that won a conference with at least one tournament-quality team. That, at least in theory, could happen even in a power league. Back when we were the Big11Ten there was a year in which Illinois was the 11th place team and made it all the way to the CG. They didn't win (in part because this is a quality league with multiple quality teams and each successive upset is therefore both of a quality team (unlike in midget leagues) and successively harder both because the opponent is usually tougher and because piling upsets on top of one-another gets increasingly difficult for a myriad of reasons.
Looking at 2019 (the last tournament that was actually selected and played), there were 16 leagues with at least one team in the NCAA's NET rankings top 68. They ranged from the B12 and B1G in which about 80% of the teams were top-68 (8 of 10 and 11 of 14 respectively) down to the A10 where less than 10% of the teams were top-68 (1 of 14). I'm totally fine with those 16 league champions getting in. What I object to is the other 16, they and their highest ranked team were:
- AmEast, #71
- CAA, #76
- Ivy, #86
- CUSA, #91
- Summit, #104
- Horizon, #115
- SBT, #121
- BSKY, #124
- MVC, #127
- Patriot, #132
- BSouth, #144
- Southland, #154
- MAAC, #201
- NEC, #203
- SWAC, #205
- MEAC, #260
Even here, I don't really mind the Champions of the better of these leagues getting in. They are reasonably close to "tournament-quality" so who cares if the AmEast Champion, #71 gets in over the 9th place team in the B1G that is slightly better. However, it is ridiculous that the Champions of the MEAC, SWAC, NEC, and MAAC get in. Their best teams are probably worse than the worst team on most B1G teams' schedules. Including them is just silly and it inherently deprives a VASTLY superior team of an opportunity that they are obviously more qualified for and deserving of.
At the least, the play-in games should be for all four 16-seeds such that the worst eight teams in the tournament have to play them rather than the worst four and four others that are vastly superior to those tallest midgets. In 2019 that would have at least forced the #127 and lower tallest midgets into play-in's.
Second, it would make for MUCH more competitive basketball.
In the first round the top-12 seeds each win AT LEAST 1/3 of the time. The lowest among the top-12 are the 12 seeds who win almost 36% of the time (.357, 50-90). Here is how the 13-16 seeds do:
- #13 is .207 all-time against #4, 29-111
- #14 is .150 all-time against #3, 21-119
- #15 is .057 all-time against #2, 8-132
- #16 is .007 all-time against #1, 1-139
Ie:
- A 13 seed takes out a #4 less than once a year, about four times every five years
- A 14 seed takes out a #3 about twice every three years
- A 15 seed takes out a #2 about once every four years
- A 16 seed takes out a #1 once every 35 years
That isn't frequent enough to make those games interesting to me. When we fill out our bracket most of us just automatically advance the top-4 seeds then decide which 5/12 upset we want to go with. There is a reason for that. #12's have beaten #5's almost twice as frequently as #13's have won and #12's have as many wins as #13's and #14's combined.
Back up and look at the drop-off by seed:
- #10's have won 55 times in 35 years (55-85, .393)
- #11's have won 52 times in 35 years (52-88, .371)
- #12's have won 50 times in 35 years (50-90, .357)
- #13's have won 29 times in 35 years (29-111, .207)
- #14's have won 21 times in 35 years (21-119, .150)
- #15's have won 8 times in 35 years (8-132, .057)
- #16's have won once in 35 years (1-139, .007)
From 10 though 12 the drop-off is minimal from one seed to the next but note the HUMONGOUS drop-off from the 12 seeds to the 13 seeds. The 12 seeds are reasonably competitive, the 13 seeds are not. Why? In theory there are two possible explanations: Either the #13 seeds are substantially worse than the #12 seeds or the #4 seeds are substantially better than the #5's. Upthread I said that it was because the #13's are substantially worse and that I could prove it, here goes:
First off, it is plain obvious. #4's and #5's are nearly interchangeable just like #5's and #6's, #6's and #7's, etc.
Second, the last of the at-large teams (the play-in / last four in) are generally on the 11 or 12 line. In 2019 the at-large play-in games were for #11 seeds. Thus, the committee at that point switches from picking the next best tournament-quality team to being forced to take the least short of the remaining tallest midgets. The 12 seeds are still pretty good because the top few tallest midget conferences have at least one team each that is reasonably close to tournament-quality. However, the committee quickly runs out of those and starts putting in increasingly short tallest midgets. Here are the NET rankings by seed in the 2019 Tournament:
- #10: Range of 31-61, mean of 48, median of 50
- #11: Range of 32-73, mean of 73, median of 55.5
- #12: Range of 40-58, mean of 48.25, median of 47.5
- #13: Range of 68-103, mean of 80, median of 74.5
- #14: Range of 86-121, mean of 105.5, median of 107.5
Note the HUMONGOUS drop-off between the #12's and the #13's. THAT is why #13's win about half as often as #12's, not because #4's are substantially better than #5's.
Another proof, the next round:
When 10-12 seeds do win their first game (upsetting 5-7) they almost always have a tougher game in the second round (vs 4/13, 3/14, 2/15 and it is almost always 4, 3, 2 as demonstrated above). Despite that, their record is actually better in second round games:
- #10 is .393 in first round games against #7 (55-85) but improves to .418 in second round games against 2/15 (23-32).
- #11 is .371 in first round games against #6 (52-88) but improves to .423 in second round games against 3/14 (22-30).
- #12 is .357 in first round games against #5 (50-90) but improves to .420 in second round games against 4/13 (21-29).
All of the bottom four seeds stay the same or get worse in the second round except the #15's and the data-set there is too small to be useful:
- #13 is .207 in first round games against #4 (29-111) and stays the same .207 in the second round games against 5/12 (6-23)
- #14 is .150 in first round games against #3 (21-119) and declines to .095 in the second round against 6/11 (2-19)
- #15 is .057 in first round games against #2 (8-132) and improves to .125 in the second round against 7/10 (1-7). The problem here is that it is just one win in just eight tries so the data-set isn't large enough to rely on.
- #16 is .007 in first round games against #1 and declines to .000 in the second round against #9 (the one time it happened, they lost to a #9).
I *THINK* I can understand why 10-12 seeds get better in the second round. I *THINK* it is for two reasons:
- The overrated #10-12 seeds are underrepresented in second round games because they all lost in the first round, and
- The underrated 10-12 seeds are overrepresented in second round games because they are more likely to win in the first round.
The thing is that both of those things *SHOULD* apply to #13-#16 seeds as well. In addition, #13-16 seeds that do make it to the second round have two major advantages that *SHOULD* help their record in second round games:
- The games get easier even if the higher seed wins. A #12 that beats a #5 usually then has to play a #4 that is, at least in theory, even better than the team that they just beat. Same for a #11 that beats a #6 and gets a game against a #3 or a #10 that beats a #7 and gets a game against a #2.
- There is a VASTLY better chance that a #13-16 seed that does win their first round game will NOT get the chalk opponent. Consider:
- A #10 that beats a #7 has a 94% chance of getting a #2 in the second round and only a 6% chance of getting #15.
- A #11 that beats a #6 has a 85% chance of getting a #3 in the second round and only a 15% chance of getting #14.
- A #12 that beats a #5 has a 79% chance of getting a #4 in the second round and only a 21% chance of getting #13.
- A #13 that beats a #4 has a 64% chance of getting a #5 in the second round and a 36% chance of getting #12.
- A #14 that beats a #3 has a 63% chance of getting a #6 in the second round and a 37% chance of getting #11.
- A #15 that beats a #2 has a 60% chance of getting a #7 in the second round and a 40% chance of getting #10.
- A #16 that beats a #1 is obviously playing either #8 or #9 which are basically interchangeable. Admittedly, since this has only happened once this is insufficient data as well.
The point is that bottom-4 seeds that DO win in the first round always get an easier game in the second round and that second round game is significantly easier more than 1/3 of the time while 10-12 seeds to pull off a first round upset almost universally get a tougher opponent the next time out. In spite of that, #10-12 seeds improve from the first to the second round while #13-16 seeds decline, stay the same, or have insufficient data to make a determination.
The #12 seeds are reasonably competitive up until they run into a buzzsaw known as a #1 seed in the S16. In their S16 game a #12 seed could play a #1, #8, #9, or #16, of those:
- 85.71% of the time it is going to be a #1
- 9.29% of the time it is going to be a #8
- 5% of the time it is going to be a #9
- So far no #16 has gotten to the second weekend.
- #12 Seeds crash and burn in the S16. Their record there is an abysmal .048 (1-20).
- #11 Seeds that make the S16 play 2/7/10/15. Their record is .364 (8-14).
- #10 Seeds that make the S16 play 3/6/11/14. Their record is .348 (8-15).
Note that while the #12's crash and burn in the S16 because they invariably run into a #1, the #10 and #11 seeds that do make the S16 are still reasonably competitive even there. They win more than 1/3 of their games.
What about the #13-#16 seeds? Well we already know that no #16 has ever made the second weekend, no #13-#15 has ever won a second weekend game:
- #13 Seeds play 1/8/9/16. They are 0-6.
- #14 Seeds play 2/7/10/15. They are 0-2.
- #15 Seeds play 3/6/11/14. They are 0-1.
- #16 Seeds, if they made it, would play 4/5/11/13. They are 0-0.
In the 35 years of the 64+ team tournament there have been 560 #13-#16 seeds. They have had 560 chances to show us that they could win a S16 game and they have come up short EVERY SINGLE TIME. The #12 seeds have one S16 win. The #9 seeds have four and every other seed has at least eight. The #13-16 seeds have NONE.
The tallest midgets that make up the bottom of the tournament have absolutely no business being in a National Championship Tournament and 35 years of experience has demonstrated that beyond argument, as I have laid it out above. They flat out suck.
My personal preference is in this order:
- Go to a 32 team tournament. As @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) pointed out above no #9 or below has ever won a NC but it is actually worse than that. No #9 or below has ever even made it to the NC game. Six (4 #11's, 1 #10 and 1 #9) have made it to the F4 but they all lost in the semi-final. The top-32 have made it to and won the NC, the other 32 (or 36 as it is now) teams are all superfluous window-dressing.
- Put in some kind of threshold that a conference needs to meet to get an auto-bid. Maybe "have at least one team ranked in the top-64" or even "have at least one team ranked in the top-100". The first of those would have eliminated 17 tallest midgets in 2019 while even the second would have at least cleared out the worst 12.
- Keep the auto-bids for every conference but expand the tournament to 80 teams. Using the NET Rankings from 2019 that would have meant that (assumes the committee went exactly by NET Ranking) the top-65 teams would have gotten in (getting the #1 through #16 seeds and one of the #17 seeds) along with 15 tallest midgets ranging from #68 to #260. Each of the 15 tallest midgets would have been placed in a game against a legitimate tournament-quality opponent but none of them would have been unwinnable at the level of the #1/16 games now. Instead, you'd see upsets probably around 1/4 to 1/3 of the time in each of the 16/17, 15/18, 14/19, and 13/20 games then those winners would have been MUCH better than the current #13-#16 seeds so the first full round would be more entertaining because there would be a realistic chance of an upset in every game instead of only about half of them.
My personal preference is #1 followed by #2. I push for expansion to 80 teams instead because I am pragmatic and realize that the NCAA isn't going to reduce their field by more than half nor are they going to exclude some conferences entirely so my third option is the only viable one.
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MSU could be a Wednesday sleeper in the BTT
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The point to me, is twofold:
First, as I've said, it seems ridiculously unfair to me that mediocre major conference teams get passed over by ~20 tallest midgets that are VASTLY inferior to said mediocre major conference midlings.
I'm not talking about league tournament cinderellas that won a conference with at least one tournament-quality team. That, at least in theory, could happen even in a power league. Back when we were the Big11Ten there was a year in which Illinois was the 11th place team and made it all the way to the CG. They didn't win (in part because this is a quality league with multiple quality teams and each successive upset is therefore both of a quality team (unlike in midget leagues) and successively harder both because the opponent is usually tougher and because piling upsets on top of one-another gets increasingly difficult for a myriad of reasons.
Looking at 2019 (the last tournament that was actually selected and played), there were 16 leagues with at least one team in the NCAA's NET rankings top 68. They ranged from the B12 and B1G in which about 80% of the teams were top-68 (8 of 10 and 11 of 14 respectively) down to the A10 where less than 10% of the teams were top-68 (1 of 14). I'm totally fine with those 16 league champions getting in. What I object to is the other 16, they and their highest ranked team were:
- AmEast, #71
- CAA, #76
- Ivy, #86
- CUSA, #91
- Summit, #104
- Horizon, #115
- SBT, #121
- BSKY, #124
- MVC, #127
- Patriot, #132
- BSouth, #144
- Southland, #154
- MAAC, #201
- NEC, #203
- SWAC, #205
- MEAC, #260
Even here, I don't really mind the Champions of the better of these leagues getting in. They are reasonably close to "tournament-quality" so who cares if the AmEast Champion, #71 gets in over the 9th place team in the B1G that is slightly better. However, it is ridiculous that the Champions of the MEAC, SWAC, NEC, and MAAC get in. Their best teams are probably worse than the worst team on most B1G teams' schedules. Including them is just silly and it inherently deprives a VASTLY superior team of an opportunity that they are obviously more qualified for and deserving of.
At the least, the play-in games should be for all four 16-seeds such that the worst eight teams in the tournament have to play them rather than the worst four and four others that are vastly superior to those tallest midgets. In 2019 that would have at least forced the #127 and lower tallest midgets into play-in's.
Second, it would make for MUCH more competitive basketball.
In the first round the top-12 seeds each win AT LEAST 1/3 of the time. The lowest among the top-12 are the 12 seeds who win almost 36% of the time (.357, 50-90). Here is how the 13-16 seeds do:
- #13 is .207 all-time against #4, 29-111
- #14 is .150 all-time against #3, 21-119
- #15 is .057 all-time against #2, 8-132
- #16 is .007 all-time against #1, 1-139
Ie:
- A 13 seed takes out a #4 less than once a year, about four times every five years
- A 14 seed takes out a #3 about twice every three years
- A 15 seed takes out a #2 about once every four years
- A 16 seed takes out a #1 once every 35 years
That isn't frequent enough to make those games interesting to me. When we fill out our bracket most of us just automatically advance the top-4 seeds then decide which 5/12 upset we want to go with. There is a reason for that. #12's have beaten #5's almost twice as frequently as #13's have won and #12's have as many wins as #13's and #14's combined.
Back up and look at the drop-off by seed:
- #10's have won 55 times in 35 years (55-85, .393)
- #11's have won 52 times in 35 years (52-88, .371)
- #12's have won 50 times in 35 years (50-90, .357)
- #13's have won 29 times in 35 years (29-111, .207)
- #14's have won 21 times in 35 years (21-119, .150)
- #15's have won 8 times in 35 years (8-132, .057)
- #16's have won once in 35 years (1-139, .007)
From 10 though 12 the drop-off is minimal from one seed to the next but note the HUMONGOUS drop-off from the 12 seeds to the 13 seeds. The 12 seeds are reasonably competitive, the 13 seeds are not. Why? In theory there are two possible explanations: Either the #13 seeds are substantially worse than the #12 seeds or the #4 seeds are substantially better than the #5's. Upthread I said that it was because the #13's are substantially worse and that I could prove it, here goes:
First off, it is plain obvious. #4's and #5's are nearly interchangeable just like #5's and #6's, #6's and #7's, etc.
Second, the last of the at-large teams (the play-in / last four in) are generally on the 11 or 12 line. In 2019 the at-large play-in games were for #11 seeds. Thus, the committee at that point switches from picking the next best tournament-quality team to being forced to take the least short of the remaining tallest midgets. The 12 seeds are still pretty good because the top few tallest midget conferences have at least one team each that is reasonably close to tournament-quality. However, the committee quickly runs out of those and starts putting in increasingly short tallest midgets. Here are the NET rankings by seed in the 2019 Tournament:
- #10: Range of 31-61, mean of 48, median of 50
- #11: Range of 32-73, mean of 73, median of 55.5
- #12: Range of 40-58, mean of 48.25, median of 47.5
- #13: Range of 68-103, mean of 80, median of 74.5
- #14: Range of 86-121, mean of 105.5, median of 107.5
Note the HUMONGOUS drop-off between the #12's and the #13's. THAT is why #13's win about half as often as #12's, not because #4's are substantially better than #5's.
Another proof, the next round:
When 10-12 seeds do win their first game (upsetting 5-7) they almost always have a tougher game in the second round (vs 4/13, 3/14, 2/15 and it is almost always 4, 3, 2 as demonstrated above). Despite that, their record is actually better in second round games:
- #10 is .393 in first round games against #7 (55-85) but improves to .418 in second round games against 2/15 (23-32).
- #11 is .371 in first round games against #6 (52-88) but improves to .423 in second round games against 3/14 (22-30).
- #12 is .357 in first round games against #5 (50-90) but improves to .420 in second round games against 4/13 (21-29).
All of the bottom four seeds stay the same or get worse in the second round except the #15's and the data-set there is too small to be useful:
- #13 is .207 in first round games against #4 (29-111) and stays the same .207 in the second round games against 5/12 (6-23)
- #14 is .150 in first round games against #3 (21-119) and declines to .095 in the second round against 6/11 (2-19)
- #15 is .057 in first round games against #2 (8-132) and improves to .125 in the second round against 7/10 (1-7). The problem here is that it is just one win in just eight tries so the data-set isn't large enough to rely on.
- #16 is .007 in first round games against #1 and declines to .000 in the second round against #9 (the one time it happened, they lost to a #9).
I *THINK* I can understand why 10-12 seeds get better in the second round. I *THINK* it is for two reasons:
- The overrated #10-12 seeds are underrepresented in second round games because they all lost in the first round, and
- The underrated 10-12 seeds are overrepresented in second round games because they are more likely to win in the first round.
The thing is that both of those things *SHOULD* apply to #13-#16 seeds as well. In addition, #13-16 seeds that do make it to the second round have two major advantages that *SHOULD* help their record in second round games:
- The games get easier even if the higher seed wins. A #12 that beats a #5 usually then has to play a #4 that is, at least in theory, even better than the team that they just beat. Same for a #11 that beats a #6 and gets a game against a #3 or a #10 that beats a #7 and gets a game against a #2.
- There is a VASTLY better chance that a #13-16 seed that does win their first round game will NOT get the chalk opponent. Consider:
- A #10 that beats a #7 has a 94% chance of getting a #2 in the second round and only a 6% chance of getting #15.
- A #11 that beats a #6 has a 85% chance of getting a #3 in the second round and only a 15% chance of getting #14.
- A #12 that beats a #5 has a 79% chance of getting a #4 in the second round and only a 21% chance of getting #13.
- A #13 that beats a #4 has a 64% chance of getting a #5 in the second round and a 36% chance of getting #12.
- A #14 that beats a #3 has a 63% chance of getting a #6 in the second round and a 37% chance of getting #11.
- A #15 that beats a #2 has a 60% chance of getting a #7 in the second round and a 40% chance of getting #10.
- A #16 that beats a #1 is obviously playing either #8 or #9 which are basically interchangeable. Admittedly, since this has only happened once this is insufficient data as well.
The point is that bottom-4 seeds that DO win in the first round always get an easier game in the second round and that second round game is significantly easier more than 1/3 of the time while 10-12 seeds to pull off a first round upset almost universally get a tougher opponent the next time out. In spite of that, #10-12 seeds improve from the first to the second round while #13-16 seeds decline, stay the same, or have insufficient data to make a determination.
The #12 seeds are reasonably competitive up until they run into a buzzsaw known as a #1 seed in the S16. In their S16 game a #12 seed could play a #1, #8, #9, or #16, of those:
- 85.71% of the time it is going to be a #1
- 9.29% of the time it is going to be a #8
- 5% of the time it is going to be a #9
- So far no #16 has gotten to the second weekend.
- #12 Seeds crash and burn in the S16. Their record there is an abysmal .048 (1-20).
- #11 Seeds that make the S16 play 2/7/10/15. Their record is .364 (8-14).
- #10 Seeds that make the S16 play 3/6/11/14. Their record is .348 (8-15).
Note that while the #12's crash and burn in the S16 because they invariably run into a #1, the #10 and #11 seeds that do make the S16 are still reasonably competitive even there. They win more than 1/3 of their games.
What about the #13-#16 seeds? Well we already know that no #16 has ever made the second weekend, no #13-#15 has ever won a second weekend game:
- #13 Seeds play 1/8/9/16. They are 0-6.
- #14 Seeds play 2/7/10/15. They are 0-2.
- #15 Seeds play 3/6/11/14. They are 0-1.
- #16 Seeds, if they made it, would play 4/5/11/13. They are 0-0.
In the 35 years of the 64+ team tournament there have been 560 #13-#16 seeds. They have had 560 chances to show us that they could win a S16 game and they have come up short EVERY SINGLE TIME. The #12 seeds have one S16 win. The #9 seeds have four and every other seed has at least eight. The #13-16 seeds have NONE.
The tallest midgets that make up the bottom of the tournament have absolutely no business being in a National Championship Tournament and 35 years of experience has demonstrated that beyond argument, as I have laid it out above. They flat out suck.
My personal preference is in this order:
- Go to a 32 team tournament. As @bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) pointed out above no #9 or below has ever won a NC but it is actually worse than that. No #9 or below has ever even made it to the NC game. Six (4 #11's, 1 #10 and 1 #9) have made it to the F4 but they all lost in the semi-final. The top-32 have made it to and won the NC, the other 32 (or 36 as it is now) teams are all superfluous window-dressing.
- Put in some kind of threshold that a conference needs to meet to get an auto-bid. Maybe "have at least one team ranked in the top-64" or even "have at least one team ranked in the top-100". The first of those would have eliminated 17 tallest midgets in 2019 while even the second would have at least cleared out the worst 12.
- Keep the auto-bids for every conference but expand the tournament to 80 teams. Using the NET Rankings from 2019 that would have meant that (assumes the committee went exactly by NET Ranking) the top-65 teams would have gotten in (getting the #1 through #16 seeds and one of the #17 seeds) along with 15 tallest midgets ranging from #68 to #260. Each of the 15 tallest midgets would have been placed in a game against a legitimate tournament-quality opponent but none of them would have been unwinnable at the level of the #1/16 games now. Instead, you'd see upsets probably around 1/4 to 1/3 of the time in each of the 16/17, 15/18, 14/19, and 13/20 games then those winners would have been MUCH better than the current #13-#16 seeds so the first full round would be more entertaining because there would be a realistic chance of an upset in every game instead of only about half of them.
My personal preference is #1 followed by #2. I push for expansion to 80 teams instead because I am pragmatic and realize that the NCAA isn't going to reduce their field by more than half nor are they going to exclude some conferences entirely so my third option is the only viable one.
You still haven't made an argument why some 12th and 13th place teams in P5 conferences DESERVE spots though. You've just argued against the auto bid teams. Nobody disagrees, we all agree those bottom 16 teams aren't among the 64 best. But how does allowing every P5 team improve things?
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You still haven't made an argument why some 12th and 13th place teams in P5 conferences DESERVE spots though. You've just argued against the auto bid teams. Nobody disagrees, we all agree those bottom 16 teams aren't among the 64 best. But how does allowing every P5 team improve things?
For one thing it is my third option, but the only viable one.
Second, what it accomplishes is that it eliminates the noncompetitive games in the tournament. As I listed, #12 seeds and above all win at least 1/3 of the time. Those are fun games to watch because an upset is not unrealistic. We get excited about 5/12 because we know that #12 wins about 1/3 of the time. We don't get excited about 1/16 because we know that #16 basically never wins (once in 140 tries). By shunting those tallest midgets into what would effectively be four "play-in" games in each region we'd eliminate those slaughter games and replace them with two games each:
- First would generally be a tallest midget against a mediocre major conference team in the "play-in" round of 13/20, 14/19, 15/18, and 16/17 games. These would be MUCH more competitive than the current 1/16 through 4/13 games because the #13-16 seeds wouldn't be nearly as good as the #1-4's. then
- A generally MUCH better #13-#16 would take on #1-#4 in what would be a MUCH more competitive game than what we get now.
You would eliminate the four play-in games (that nobody except those eight fanbases care about anyway) and the 16 least competitive games of the first round and replace them with 16 competitive play-in games and 16 vastly more competitive first round games (1 vs 16/17, 2 vs 15/18, 3 vs 14/19, 4 vs 13/20).
It is only adding 12 games (add 32, subtract 20) but the 32 you add are MUCH more interesting than the 20 you delete.
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I am positive that a can of worms would not be opened up by removing the auto-bid from the HBCU conferences. O0
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Watching the fans at this Texas Tech game :34:
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This debate feels like it centers on a few things that Medina strongly holds which most other folks either disagree with or don't care about.
1. That it is deeply unfair for teams that missed opportunities presented to them be replaced by a different caste of teams with considerably less opportunity (well, that said schools are given a clean opportunity at all)
2. That chasing more competitive games for about half of two days is something that should be made a priority.
To the first, it's kind of a matter of what fairness means. Those extra teams get more leeway to squander opportunities. In exchange some people get no opportunity, unless their schedule was set up in an extremely particular way. If the system is gonna be rough on anyone, being rough on the teams that have the most control of their situation seems a very favorable outcome. If those coaches and players feel their middling ability to compete on their own level is egregiously unfair, they are free to transfer to or take jobs in a midget conference and dominate as their talent and rankings suggests they should.
To the second, I suppose most folks don't live and die on the question of, does this team win 20 percent of the time instead of 5, or 30 instead of 20? Most folks, based on how the thing is consumed, tend to say an upset by a quirky underdog is more interesting than a 7th place Big 12 team pulling off the upset. Losing more top-4 seeds in the opening two days isn't even really a huge goal to strive for. There's joy in the weirdness and the stories, and after two days, things are mostly taken care of.
That said, if one feels it's bad TV product or that 32 teams would be preferable, one only has to change one's habits slightly and we're in great shape. No one says a person has to watch the first two days. I find them to be excellent, but someone else might see them as less than great. So if one just tunes in Saturday, most of the top 32 are still there, give to take 1-3 tall midgets. And the tournament can be enjoyed in the more normal way, unless one just couldn't get past feelings about the selection process.
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Middling is in now. That wouldn't even be meddling. It would basically simply be to show up, not being Nebraska, and being a conference based on how good your football team is, and you're in.
Like I said earlier, MSU is 13th in the Big 10, and #62 in KenPom, So just don't be Nebraska, and you're in, without doing jack
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Middling is in now. That wouldn't even be meddling. It would basically simply be to show up, not being Nebraska, and being a conference based on how good your football team is, and you're in.
Like I said earlier, MSU is 13th in the Big 10, and #62 in KenPom, So just don't be Nebraska, and you're in, without doing jack
Being in the B1G and "not being Nebraska" is a MUCH more impressive accomplishment than winning the MEAC Tournament.
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Being in the B1G and "not being Nebraska" is a MUCH more impressive accomplishment than winning the MEAC Tournament.
So why play a season?
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Watching the fans at this Texas Tech game :34:
Chris Beard is now a one man superspreader event
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I like the auto-bids, but I can see why they would be infuriating to Medina's statistical brain.
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This debate feels like it centers on a few things that Medina strongly holds which most other folks either disagree with or don't care about.
1. That it is deeply unfair for teams that missed opportunities presented to them be replaced by a different caste of teams with considerably less opportunity (well, that said schools are given a clean opportunity at all)
2. That chasing more competitive games for about half of two days is something that should be made a priority.
IMHO that's how I read Medina's posts as well.
Regarding the first point, I have a fundamental disagreement that there is some deep lack of fairness for mediocre power conference teams to not be in the tournament.
Last year, for example, Purdue was sweating the bubble. We were a decent team in a brutally difficult conference. As a fan, of course I wanted my team to get into the tournament, but I didn't think that Purdue "deserved" a bid just because we were better than those tallest midgets. I knew Purdue wasn't a team with any chance to make a deep run, so it would have been a "we're just happy to be here" luxury. They certainly didn't do anything last season that would have been deserving.
So I don't see anything unfair about teams with no chance at a deep run who haven't accomplished anything not getting in, while teams with no chance of a deep run who HAVE accomplished something getting in. Maybe winning a 1-bid league's conference tourney isn't as difficult as going 9-11 in the B1G regular season, but all you can do is win the games in front of you.
What I do think is that college sports in general is a deeply unfair process to begin with. Players are secured via recruiting rather than a draft, so it makes it much more of a "haves vs have-nots" system rather than a parity system. As such, I think that one of the things that I like about the NCAAT is the fundamental fairness. Win your conference, you're in. That's it. Simple. You control your destiny. Win and you're in.
It may not happen often, but I find it FAR more entertaining to see some team I've never even heard of seeded at #14 beat a big-name #3. I root for it. Those kids are getting to play on the world stage for potentially the only time they'll ever get a chance in their lives. How is that not more meaningful than a mediocre power conference team in that same spot? I know nothing about UMBC other than them knocking off #1 UVA, but I'm going to have that in my head as a trivia question possibly the rest of my life. Would I care as much if that was a mediocre power conference team?
I like things the way they are.
I would do two things:
- Make the auto-bid the conference's regular season champion. I know this will never happen because the conferences make money from their conference tournaments, but it's always seemed like proving yourself the best over an 18 game conference schedule should be rewarded than getting a lucky run of a few games. This would also improve the quality of those tallest midgets.
- I agree with Medina that the play-ins, if they have to exist (I'd go back to 64 or at least 65), should all be the 16-seeds. I find it odd that 11-seed teams have to participate in play-in games. Those teams are FAR stronger than the 16 seeds. I think it was purely a money situation where the NCAA realized nobody would care about the play-in if they were only the 16s. At least if you have a couple major conference teams in the play-in, basketball fans might tune in for both games each play-in night rather than tuning in for zero games because nobody cares about the 16s.
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I know now the games are on ESPN+ and what not. But except for a couple exceptions, it's just the championship game that's on TV.
Personally I love championship week. I might like it more than the tournament itself. But if you want to retain that TV money, and still put your best team in a good situation, why not replace conference tournaments with conference championship games. Or even conference championship series. Have #1 play #2, where #1 has to win once, and #2 has to win twice.
Granted then you could have situation like the Big Ten last year where you have a three team tie, and a co-champ is out of it based on a tiebreaker
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Interesting thing I noticed from KenPom:
- The B1G has zero undefeated teams
- #3 Michigan - 13-1: Highest rated 1-loss team
- The B1G has zero 2-loss or 3-loss teams.
- #7 Ohio State - 16-4: Highest rated 4-loss team
- #4 Illinois - 13-5: Highest rated 5-loss team
- #5 Iowa - 13-6: Highest rated 6-loss team
- #22 Purdue - 13-7: Highest rated 7-loss team
- #27 Indiana - 10-8: Highest rated 8-loss team
- #30 Penn State - 7-9: Highest rated 9-loss team
- #44 Maryland - 10-10: Highest-rated 10-loss team
- The B1G has no teams with more than 10 losses
Seems the analytics certainly respect the toughness of schedules in the conference!
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So why play a season?
Come on, that is silly.
The B1G isn't always this strong, we need those early OOC games to know just how strong the league is. We also need them on a macro level to know the relative strength of all 30-some leagues.
Then within each league we need the conference games to know the relative strength of each team.
Only then can we determine which teams are tournament quality and which aren't.
Based on OOC games we now know that a whole bunch of B1G teams are and that Nebraska and Northwestern are possibly the only B1G teams that aren't. However, we are going to ignore that knowledge and hold multiple tournament quality B1G teams out so that we can give those spots to vastly inferior teams that won a tallest midgets competition.
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Come on, that is silly.
No it isn't. If you are saying the 12th and 13th best Big Ten teams are simply in, then what the hell are we doing? Basically don't be Nebraska, and you can play for a national title.
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Is someone not realistic about their challenges and accomplishments? I don't think anyone worth much is saying "Hey, what Gonzaga has done, being undefeated at this point, is more impressive than what Baylor has done." (Yes, I know Gonzaga leads the polls, which is in part because the polls are stupid and not built on accomplishments anyway)
It just seems like a hobbyhorse that doesn't go anywhere. They don't "accomplish" more because the structure of the sport makes it impossible. Perhaps that is their challenge. I'm sure if you offered them a chance to get challenged more and gain more accomplishments, they'd say sign us up. But that won't be offered.
I suppose I might have been too snarky, but nit-picking have-nots just draws that out of me.
Edit: I will say, your critiques on the bottom part of the tournament allowed me to crystalize what I think is good about it, and I appreciate that greatly.
You answered your own question vis-a-vis anyone worth much. YES, poll voters have them ahead of Baylor, that is flat out ridiculous.
The structure of the sport makes it such that Gonzaga will obviously never have the SoS in conference that Baylor or any other major conference team has. However, that structure does not require Gonzaga to play ANY low-level OOC games. These are Gonzaga's OOC games this year:
- Kansas, #25 BPI
- Auburn, #73
- WVU, #19
- Iowa, #3
- NWST2x #299
- UVA, #6
- NAU, #309
- Dixie State, #330
Obviously Kansas, WVU, Iowa, and UVA are high-end and Auburn was intended to be but when your in-league schedule is complete crap there is no need to schedule #299, #309, and #330 OOC. Gonzaga's OOC should be a LOT better than any Power Conference contender because their league schedule is obviously a lot worse.
You said:
"if you offered them a chance to get challenged more and gain more accomplishments, they'd say sign us up. But that won't be offered." Their AD chose to schedule four OOC games against absolute crap teams. That is THEIR choice. They could have chosen legitimate opponents but they chose not to. That is on them.
Gonzaga is 4-0 against AP ranked teams, the B1G teams have played and are:
- 10 Maryland 4-6
- 9 Northwestern 2-7
- 8 Purdue 4-4
- 8 Minnesota 4-4
- 7 Iowa 4-3
- 7 Indiana 2-5
- 6 Ohio State 5-1
- 6 Illinois 3-3
- 6 Wisconsin 3-3
- 6 Michigan State 2-4
- 6 Penn State 2-4
- 5 Nebraska 0-5
- 5 Rutgers 1-4
- 4 Michigan 3-1
So in the entire B1G only Michigan hasn't played more AP teams than Gonzaga and that is only because they are in the midst of an interminable COVID-19 pause. Note also that while Gonzaga will not play another ranked team unless and until they make it deep into the tournament, every B1G team has ranked teams left on their schedule and will play more ranked teams if they go far enough in the BTT. Using my school as an example:
- 6 The Buckeyes have already played 6 AP teams (5-1)
- 3 The Buckeyes have three more currently ranked teams on the schedule (vs #3 M, vs #15 IA, vs #6 IL)
Thus the Buckeyes will have more than twice as many games against ranked teams as Gonzaga before the BTT and they could potentially get to 3x in the BTT and that isn't anything special by the Buckeyes it is just typical of life in a big boy conference.
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Zags have been flip flopping with Baylor at the top of the KenPom rankings all season. The gap between them and third ranked Michigan is about the same as Michigan and 20thh ranked Texas Tech.
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No it isn't. If you are saying the 12th and 13th best Big Ten teams are simply in, then what the hell are we doing? Basically don't be Nebraska, and you can play for a national title.
For one thing, I'm not saying the 13th best B1G team is in. Right now MSU happens to be in 13th place but they aren't the second worst team, that would be Northwestern. I'd only include down to #12 MSU and the Spartans (#63 in BPI), Terrapins (#61), and Gophers (#57) are all borderline so they could play their way out depending on how the rest of the season goes.
Second, I already explained that you need the season to get the data to determine how strong conferences are relative to each other and to determine how strong teams within those conferences are relative to each other. Maybe next year the B1G will not be so strong and will have four or five "obviously out" teams instead of only one or two like this year.
Right now the best team in the MEAC is #212 Morgan State while the worst team in the B1G is #128 Nebraska. Why is Morgan State likely to get in while Nebraska is basically hopeless? Nebraska is a better team by a wide margin. Northwestern, Michigan State, Maryland, and Minnesota are even more vastly superior to Morgan State yet Morgan State has an easier path to the tournament than any of them.
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MEAC would probably welcome Minny to join their conference.
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Latest Bracketology from the worldwide leader:
- #1 Ohio State, Michigan
- #2 Illinois
- #4 Iowa
- #5 Purdue, Wisconsin
- #6 Rutgers
- #9 Minnesota
- #10 Indiana
On the Bubble:
- Indiana is one of the 'last four byes"
- Penn State is one of the "first four out"
- Maryland is one of the "next four out"
Based on historical performance those seeds should yield:
- 6.54 teams in the second round
- 4.01 teams in the S16
- 2.31 teams in the E8
- 1.26 teams in the F4
- 0.66 teams in the NC
- 0.36 National Champions
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Nebraska and Morgan State both have to do exactly the same thing in order to get in at this point. Win their Conference Tournament.
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Only then can we determine which teams are tournament quality and which aren't.
Based on OOC games we now know that a whole bunch of B1G teams are and that Nebraska and Northwestern are possibly the only B1G teams that aren't. However, we are going to ignore that knowledge and hold multiple tournament quality B1G teams out so that we can give those spots to vastly inferior teams that won a tallest midgets competition.
What is "tournament quality"?
Because if it's "has a legitimate shot at getting to the F4 or winning the championship", anyone past the 9-10 seed is out. Nobody past the 11 has EVER made it to the F4. The 9 seed has made it once, the 10 seed once, and almost inexplicably the 11 seed has made it 4 times.
Heck, anyone past the 4 seed is a damn moon shot for the championship. In the history of the 64-team tournament, the 4, 6, 7, and 8 seeds have only won the championship once each.
So what's the point of replacing a bunch of tallest midgets with a bunch of disappointing normals?
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Northwestern blew that game twice
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One way to look at it is that the Conference Tournaments are part of the NCAA Tournament, only when those rounds are over they award mulligans to a certain number of teams based on their regular season result, and then call them "at large" bids while reseeding the remaining rounds.
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Nebraska and Morgan State both have to do exactly the same thing in order to get in at this point. Win their Conference Tournament.
That is hardly equivalent. Morgan State is the best team in theirs, Nebraska would be too. Nebraska has almost zero chance in the BTT and Morgan State's chances would be even worse.
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So what's the point of replacing a bunch of tallest midgets with a bunch of disappointing normals?
I'm actually not in favor of that. My proposal here (the plausible one) is to leave the tallest midgets but effectively make them play play-in games against mediocre normals in the new 13/20, 14/19, 15/19, and 16/17 games.
I agree with you that nine's and below aren't going to win and I'd personally be thrilled with no auto-bids and a 32 team tournament but that isn't going to happen.
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Well a 32 team tourney might be less likely than the other proposals, but none of them are probably "going to happen."
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You answered your own question vis-a-vis anyone worth much. YES, poll voters have them ahead of Baylor, that is flat out ridiculous.
The structure of the sport makes it such that Gonzaga will obviously never have the SoS in conference that Baylor or any other major conference team has. However, that structure does not require Gonzaga to play ANY low-level OOC games. These are Gonzaga's OOC games this year:
- Kansas, #25 BPI
- Auburn, #73
- WVU, #19
- Iowa, #3
- NWST2x #299
- UVA, #6
- NAU, #309
- Dixie State, #330
Obviously Kansas, WVU, Iowa, and UVA are high-end and Auburn was intended to be but when your in-league schedule is complete crap there is no need to schedule #299, #309, and #330 OOC. Gonzaga's OOC should be a LOT better than any Power Conference contender because their league schedule is obviously a lot worse.
You said:
"if you offered them a chance to get challenged more and gain more accomplishments, they'd say sign us up. But that won't be offered." Their AD chose to schedule four OOC games against absolute crap teams. That is THEIR choice. They could have chosen legitimate opponents but they chose not to. That is on them.
We agree, polls are silly. This is good
I respect you a great deal, but please, I don't need to see really long lists that tell me playing in a Big Ten schedule means you play more high level games than a WCC schedule. I know that's the case. I will always know that's the case. It will be the case in March, May, September. That is the structure of the sport.
Now, you point out correctly, I said they would take on all comers. I suppose I didn't imagine a world where they just eschew home games altogether. I suppose they could've done that. They won't, in part because people alas respond to incentives, and particularly persnickety outlooks do not make incentives. The main way to do that would be to drop them seed lines, but we were talking about fairness, and that leads to some high-end unfairness. Also, in normal years, selling tickets has some value, and you can't just pay to chase the standards of someone who is likely to be unsatisfied barring a home game free slate.
Anyway, since we're talking impossible things like not playing home games, might as well have every Big Ten team schedule them. Helps Big Ten SOS. Helps Gonzaga SOS. Makes for good TV. Say seven home games, seven away. You wipe out a big chunk of of the Zags' bad non-conference opponents and get a good game on everyone's slate. I'm all for this.
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I'm actually not in favor of that. My proposal here (the plausible one) is to leave the tallest midgets but effectively make them play play-in games against mediocre normals in the new 13/20, 14/19, 15/19, and 16/17 games.
I agree with you that nine's and below aren't going to win and I'd personally be thrilled with no auto-bids and a 32 team tournament but that isn't going to happen.
On Saturday, you have a 32-team tournament. You have teams that were either in that Top 32, or midgets or mediocre normals that a top-32 team couldn't beat. Sounds peachy.
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Wisconsin won a kinda crappy game.
I think they're one win from being a lock, but they're only gonna be favored once the rest of the way and face four top-5 KenPom teams and a game at Purdue in the final six.
Efff.
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We agree, polls are silly. This is good
I respect you a great deal, but please, I don't need to see really long lists that tell me playing in a Big Ten schedule means you play more high level games than a WCC schedule. I know that's the case. I will always know that's the case. It will be the case in March, May, September. That is the structure of the sport.
Now, you point out correctly, I said they would take on all comers. I suppose I didn't imagine a world where they just eschew home games altogether. I suppose they could've done that. They won't, in part because people alas respond to incentives, and particularly persnickety outlooks do not make incentives. The main way to do that would be to drop them seed lines, but we were talking about fairness, and that leads to some high-end unfairness. Also, in normal years, selling tickets has some value, and you can't just pay to chase the standards of someone who is likely to be unsatisfied barring a home game free slate.
Anyway, since we're talking impossible things like not playing home games, might as well have every Big Ten team schedule them. Helps Big Ten SOS. Helps Gonzaga SOS. Makes for good TV. Say seven home games, seven away. You wipe out a big chunk of of the Zags' bad non-conference opponents and get a good game on everyone's slate. I'm all for this.
I get where you are coming from but I think that Gonzaga has built up enough of a "brand" to be realistically able to avail themselves of H&H series with power conference opposition. Even if they haven't, they could easily AT LEAST get H&H series against other typical mid-major powerhouses. Four of their OOC games this year were against not only teams that were not that good, but against some of the absolute worst teams in the entire sport. Some of that may have been pandemic issues this year but I've noticed this about their schedule in other years as well.
I don't know about you, but as an Ohio State fan, I'd be disappointed if my team scheduled 300+ opponents OOC and my team (like yours) has the legitimate excuse that they get PLENTY of tests in conference so they don't need extra tests OOC beyond the Challenge and a few games here or there. Gonzaga doesn't have that excuse so, to me, scheduling the absolute dregs of the sport OOC is . . . inexcusable.
What to do about it? Well, if it were me, I would take it into serious consideration when seeding them in the tournament. Even if they finish undefeated, there will be a whole lot of major conference teams that are not undefeated but that have a LOT more quality wins than they do. I'm not saying I would seed teams exclusively by "number of wins against quality opponents" but I also wouldn't do it exclusively based on winning percentage against quality opponents. I'd balance the two and IMHO, the balance has leaned too heavily in Gonzaga's favor for quite some time.
I have the same issue looking at the B1G right now. Michigan is probably our best team and I'm not saying this to pick on them (even though I am an Ohio State guy) but at some point their lack of games and thus wins due to this interminable COVID pause has to be considered. Their winning percentage of 1.000 against the B1G's .500+ teams and their winning percentage of .857 against the B1G's best 12 (all but NU and UNL) are both best in the league but:
- Their two wins against .500+ B1G teams is tied for 5th/6th/7th/8th/9th/10th in the league with PU, IA, RU, IU, and PSU and trails tOSU (5), IL MN, and UMD (3 each).
- Their six wins against the top-12 is tied for 4th/5th/6th with UW and RU and trails IL and tOSU (8 each) and PU (7).
I'm not saying that Michigan isn't a great team, just that they are going to have to get back to actually playing games and proving it if they are going to maintain their assumed status as the B1G's #1 contender come Tournament time.
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Wisconsin won a kinda crappy game.
I think they're one win from being a lock, but they're only gonna be favored once the rest of the way and face four top-5 KenPom teams and a game at Purdue in the final six.
Efff.
Your team is a bit of an enigma to me. They are perfect against the league's worst two teams and a very respectable 7-2 against the league's >.500 teams. That is better than all but Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue (6-1 each). However, they are an abysmal 1-3 against the .500+ teams. That is tied with PSU (2-6) and only better than MSU (1-5), NU (1-8), and UNL (0-3).
Being consistent about beating bad and mediocre teams isn't nothing. If it were easy, every good team would do it every time out and they don't. As noted, Wisconsin is one of the best in the B1G at it. However, they haven't been very good against their equals. OTOH, Wisconsin's three losses to .500+ teams were to the top three in the standings (M, IL, tOSU) and two of the three were on the road (M, IL). They have five games left against the .500 teams and three of the five are at home:
Wisconsin's near-annual top-4 B1G finish is in serious jeopardy. They are in fourth now and only a game behind #3 and also #2 but as of right now they would lose a tie with either of them so they are effectively 1.5 games from moving up and only 0.5 games ahead of #5 and #6. Since it seems unlikely that they'll be able to catch the Buckeyes or Illini it will likely hinge on their two games against Iowa and their game in West Lafayette.
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Rough finish for the Boilers in Minneapolis...
Credit to Marcus Carr for being a stone cold killa at the end. Purdue shut him down in the first meeting, so I'm sure he was motivated.
Certainly not a bad loss, but with a late lead feels like a missed opportunity given the way the team was playing--led the game from late in the first half until the last minute.
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How did Bwarbs change his name? And why weren't we consulted for suggestions? It really should have been voted upon, imo.
I'd have ran "Bwarb Wire" up the flag pole, in order to see if anyone would have saluted it.
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How tough is the B1G this year? Here is the worldwide leader's BPI SOS ranking within the B1G:
- #1 PSU
- #2 NU
- #4 RU
- #5 IL
- #6 UMD
- #7 IU (that is six of the top 7 nationally)
- #9 PU
- #16 MN (the B1G is still at half, eight of the top 16 toughest schedules)
- #22 tOSU
- #30 Iowa
- #31 UW
- #32 UNL
- #36 MSU
- #68 Michigan
Note that the three with the weakest SOS so far have played the fewest league games. Michigan has only played nine (second least), Michigan State has only played 11 (tied for third least), and Nebraska has only played eight (least).
Michigan has by far the weakest SOS and that is largely because they have played so few league games. Additionally, two of their nine league games played so far were against the worst two teams (vsNU, @UNL) and they have only played two games against the top half of the conference (vsUW, @PU). Their other five league games were against the middle with two each against 6-7 MN and 4-8 UMD and a home game against PSU.
Record against the B1G's .500+ teams:
- 1.000 Michigan, 2-0
- .714 Ohio State, 5-2
- .714 Illinois, 5-2
- .429 Iowa, 3-4
- .429 Purdue, 3-4
- .400 Minnesota, 4-6
- .400 Wisconsin, 2-3
- .375 Rutgers, 3-5
- .286 Indiana, 2-5
- .273 Maryland, 3-8
- .222 Penn State, 2-7
- .182 Northwestern, 2-9
- .167 Michigan State, 1-5
- .000 Nebraska 0-5
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Your team is a bit of an enigma to me. They are perfect against the league's worst two teams and a very respectable 7-2 against the league's >.500 teams. That is better than all but Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue (6-1 each). However, they are an abysmal 1-3 against the .500+ teams. That is tied with PSU (2-6) and only better than MSU (1-5), NU (1-8), and UNL (0-3).
Being consistent about beating bad and mediocre teams isn't nothing. If it were easy, every good team would do it every time out and they don't. As noted, Wisconsin is one of the best in the B1G at it. However, they haven't been very good against their equals. OTOH, Wisconsin's three losses to .500+ teams were to the top three in the standings (M, IL, tOSU) and two of the three were on the road (M, IL). They have five games left against the .500 teams and three of the five are at home:
Wisconsin's near-annual top-4 B1G finish is in serious jeopardy. They are in fourth now and only a game behind #3 and also #2 but as of right now they would lose a tie with either of them so they are effectively 1.5 games from moving up and only 0.5 games ahead of #5 and #6. Since it seems unlikely that they'll be able to catch the Buckeyes or Illini it will likely hinge on their two games against Iowa and their game in West Lafayette.
The thing is, they're not consistent. They're just putting up a consistent-ish output with inconsistent play. It's ... not ideal.
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I get where you are coming from but I think that Gonzaga has built up enough of a "brand" to be realistically able to avail themselves of H&H series with power conference opposition. Even if they haven't, they could easily AT LEAST get H&H series against other typical mid-major powerhouses. Four of their OOC games this year were against not only teams that were not that good, but against some of the absolute worst teams in the entire sport. Some of that may have been pandemic issues this year but I've noticed this about their schedule in other years as well.
I don't know about you, but as an Ohio State fan, I'd be disappointed if my team scheduled 300+ opponents OOC and my team (like yours) has the legitimate excuse that they get PLENTY of tests in conference so they don't need extra tests OOC beyond the Challenge and a few games here or there. Gonzaga doesn't have that excuse so, to me, scheduling the absolute dregs of the sport OOC is . . . inexcusable.
What to do about it? Well, if it were me, I would take it into serious consideration when seeding them in the tournament. Even if they finish undefeated, there will be a whole lot of major conference teams that are not undefeated but that have a LOT more quality wins than they do. I'm not saying I would seed teams exclusively by "number of wins against quality opponents" but I also wouldn't do it exclusively based on winning percentage against quality opponents. I'd balance the two and IMHO, the balance has leaned too heavily in Gonzaga's favor for quite some time.
You amen some good points. And at best, I have quibbles.
They used to do H&H series but they they kind of ascended. There used to be the appeal of maybe a good win. That's kind of gone. And if you're gonna take money for a road loss, a major will pay better. Hell, a major is easier to beat too. They got a home-and-home with Washington. If you look at the schedules, all the bad games are at home. Maybe it's because they want the home fans to see the backups, but I'm just guessing there's some blend of money and opportunity in there. It's a small school, small fanbase, no TV money. The recently did have an H&H with A&M and of late a nice series with Washington.
So, Ohio State had Nos. 340, 322, 288 and 261 last year. A year before, 337, 278, 259 and 233. UW usually has a smattering of awful teams too, Coppin, Savannah and Grambling a few years back. Both our schools do it for the same reason Gonzaga does: It saves money and those teams will accept crappy schedule demands. Our schools could buy and sell Gonzaga's athletic department several times over. They could pay for better, but they don't because it's easier. (I think some of it is because they fixed the scheduling bug that made a 180ish team worlds better for SOS than a 320ish team rather than just mildly better. Though UW got just murdered for a set of 300s teams in the last RPI year)
I can buy underseeding the Zags, though it has two externalities. It means that unless a top 6-7 conference takes you, you will be locked out of those higher seeds unless you break the bank financially or play no home non-confernce games. You’d basically have to break the financial structuring of the sport to break through. The other issue is one of fairness, not to the Zags, but to their opponent. If you really drop them say to a six or a 7, you’ve got say 2 seed OSU or 3 seed Illinois an underdog in the second round by 8-10 points. That at least has to be factored in.
(Out of curiosity, I looked at the NET. At the moment, they’ve actually got Baylor beat in Quad 1 and 2 wins. Obviously won’t hold, but interesting)
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Dixie State hung 67 on Gonzaga in their blowout loss.
That's nearly double the offensive output that Michigan State had against Rutgers.
"So what's your point?" you ask.
I don't know.
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You amen some good points. And at best, I have quibbles.
They used to do H&H series but they they kind of ascended. There used to be the appeal of maybe a good win. That's kind of gone. And if you're gonna take money for a road loss, a major will pay better. Hell, a major is easier to beat too. They got a home-and-home with Washington. If you look at the schedules, all the bad games are at home. Maybe it's because they want the home fans to see the backups, but I'm just guessing there's some blend of money and opportunity in there. It's a small school, small fanbase, no TV money. The recently did have an H&H with A&M and of late a nice series with Washington.
So, Ohio State had Nos. 340, 322, 288 and 261 last year. A year before, 337, 278, 259 and 233. UW usually has a smattering of awful teams too, Coppin, Savannah and Grambling a few years back. Both our schools do it for the same reason Gonzaga does: It saves money and those teams will accept crappy schedule demands. Our schools could buy and sell Gonzaga's athletic department several times over. They could pay for better, but they don't because it's easier. (I think some of it is because they fixed the scheduling bug that made a 180ish team worlds better for SOS than a 320ish team rather than just mildly better. Though UW got just murdered for a set of 300s teams in the last RPI year)
It annoys me that Ohio State does that (and Wisconsin and most others) but at least B1G teams have the excuse.
I can buy underseeding the Zags, though it has two externalities. It means that unless a top 6-7 conference takes you, you will be locked out of those higher seeds unless you break the bank financially or play no home non-confernce games. You’d basically have to break the financial structuring of the sport to break through. The other issue is one of fairness, not to the Zags, but to their opponent. If you really drop them say to a six or a 7, you’ve got say 2 seed OSU or 3 seed Illinois an underdog in the second round by 8-10 points. That at least has to be factored in.
FWIW, I wouldn't drop this year's undefeated Gonzaga THAT far. Per NET rankings they have seven "quad one" wins. At least for now that is better than all but Ohio State. Looking at the top-16 (so roughly top-4 seeds), the Quad-1 records (sorted by wins) are:
- 8-3 Ohio State
- 7-0 Gonzaga
- 6-0 Baylor
- 6-4 Illinois
- 5-3 Bama
- 5-5 WVU
- 4-5 Iowa
- 4-5 TxTech
- 4-3 Tennessee
- 3-1 Michigan
- 3-2 Virginia
- 2-0 Houston
- 2-2 Villanova
- 1-3 Colorado
- 0-1 Loyola-Chicago
- 0-0 Colgate
I would weight "number of quality wins" a little higher and "winning percentage in quality games" a little lower. For right now it is irrelevant because Gonzaga is near the top in both. The thing is that, of course, Gonzaga isn't going to climb there like the other schools are.
Quad-1 games are:
- Home against top-30 opponents
- Neutral against top-50 opponents
- Road against top-75 opponents
For Gonzaga the only potential league games that would qualify as of current rankings are:
- H/N/R against BYU (#27)
- R against St Mary's (#65)
They already played BYU twice and at St. Mary's so they can't get any more until the WCC Tournament where they could only possibly get two more and that would require them somehow playing both BYU and St. Mary's which is pretty unlikely.
For a B1G team:
- H/R/N against M, IL, tOSU, IA, UW, PU, RU
- R/N against PSU, UMD, IU
- R against MN
Obviously a B1G team that finishes well is going to pick up a LOT more quad-1 wins than Gonzaga no matter what Gonzaga does.
Illinois and Baylor have six Q1 wins each and lots more opportunities.
WVU, OkSU, Bama, and Mizzou have five Q1 wins each and lots more opportunities.
UMD, KU, RU, IA, TxTech, OU, and TN have four Q1 wins each and lots more opportunities.
All of this is just to say that I wouldn't seed them below every team that ends up with more Q1 wins. I'd just balance Q1 % with Q1 wins so as of right now they'd still be a #1 seed to me because they are still top-4 in both quantity and %. At the end of the season, we'll see. I'll add, however, that if they were to lose an WCC game, I wouldn't seed them any higher than #2 because if you are truly one of the top-4 teams in the country and you only have a MAXIMUM of 3 quality games in your league, you need to win those three.
(Out of curiosity, I looked at the NET. At the moment, they’ve actually got Baylor beat in Quad 1 and 2 wins. Obviously won’t hold, but interesting)
FWIW:
Baylor is a goofy outlier right now due to covid. The rest of the B12 all have between 9-11 Q1 games except:
- Texas has 8
- TCU has 7
- ISU has 8
Baylor only has six and is so low because they, like Michigan, are on a COVID pause. Here are the games they have "postponed":
- vs TCU #100
- @ OU #19, Q1
- vs TxTech #14, Q1
- @ WVU #16, Q1
- vs WVU #16 Q1
So there are four Q1 games "postponed".
We have the same thing going on in the B1G due to Michigan's COVID pause. Here are the B1G teams by Q1 (sorted by # of Q1 games):
- 14, Maryland, 4-10
- 11, Ohio State, 8-3
- 11, Northwestern, 2-9
- 10, Illinois, 6-4
- 10, Rutgers, 4-6
- 10, Penn State, 3-7
- 9, Iowa, 4-5
- 9, Purdue, 3-6
- 9, Minnesota, 3-6
- 9, Indiana, 2-7
- 8, Michigan State, 2-6
- 7, Wisconsin, 3-4
- 6, Nebraska, 0-6
- 4, Michigan, 3-1
So the two schools with the biggest COVID issues have the fewest Q1 games which makes sense.
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Rough finish for the Boilers in Minneapolis...
Credit to Marcus Carr for being a stone cold killa at the end. Purdue shut him down in the first meeting, so I'm sure he was motivated.
Certainly not a bad loss, but with a late lead feels like a missed opportunity given the way the team was playing--led the game from late in the first half until the last minute.
If Purdue is willing to give back any late game miracle wins, I can see what I can do about reversing this late game loss
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After going three weeks without a game or practice I'm thinking Michigan gets shellacked in Madison on Sunday.
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After going three weeks without a game or practice I'm thinking Michigan gets shellacked in Madison on Sunday.
I would guess you are right. Look at what happened to MSU in Picastaway when they came back.
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yup, look how bad UNL was after their extended break
;)
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I would guess you are right. Look at what happened to MSU in Picastaway when they came back.
The Big Ten gave UM extra prep time after quarantine, they added a third road game to MSUs first week back
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This weekend's games:
Friday:
- Illinois at Nebraska, 9pm BTN
Saturday:
- Indiana at Ohio State, noon, ESPN
- Iowa at Michigan State, 2:30pm, FOX
- Northwestern at Rutgers, 5pm
Sunday:
- Michigan at Wisconsin, 1pm, CBS
- Nebraska at Penn State, 3pm, BTN
- Minnesota at Maryland, 7pm
For the first time in quite a while it actually looks like all 14 B1G teams are going to play a game this weekend. They vary in stature, of course, but as this odd season begins to wind down these games are getting bigger for various reasons.
CORRECTION: I thought all 14 teams were playing because there are seven games but in fact Nebraska is playing twice (Fri/Sun) while Purdue is taking the weekend off).
Illinois (#4 NET, #7 BPI) at Nebraska (#167 NET, 130 BPI):
With Nebraska at 0-8 in the league this certainly looks like a mismatch but the Cornhuskers have been reasonably competitive at home. In their four previous B1G home games they (most recent to earliest):
- Lost to Wisconsin by 13
- Lost to Indiana by 8
- Lost to Michigan State (pre-Spartan COVID pause) by 7
- Lost to Michigan by 11
Yes, they are all losses but those are some really good opponents and none of those losses were complete blowouts. Illinois should win (and likely move to "lock" status but they shouldn't overlook the Cornhuskers.
Indiana (#45 NET, #27 BPI) at Ohio State (#7 NET, #12 BPI):
In a quirky bit of scheduling, this is Ohio State's easiest remaining home game. Other than this they have home games against the league's best teams (M, IA, IL) and road games against teams they probably should beat, but teams that are dangerous nonetheless (PSU, MSU). The Buckeyes are on an absolute tear and in a little over a month they have gone from possible Tournament team to possible #1 seed by going 8-1 since losing in Minneapolis way back on January 3. Those eight wins have included four road wins over ranked teams (#15 RU, #14 IL, #10 UW, #8 IA) which is the main reason that the Buckeyes are now in the mix for a #1 seed. If they want to stay in that mix they most likely HAVE to win this game because there are tougher games ahead.
From Indiana's perspective a win here would REALLY help their Tournament chances. ESPN has them as a #10 seed right now, just on the right side of the bubble but they are an 11-8/6-6 team that just can't seem to stay on the right side of .500 in the league. They started 0-2 in the league then won two to get to .500. Since then they've lost a game or two to fall one or two below .500 then won the necessary one or two to get back to .500 then lost again. Most recently they fell to 4-6 with back-to-back close losses to RU and IL at home then won back-to-back close games to get back to 6-6 where they are now.
Of note, Indiana's last four games have all ben decided either in OT or by four or less points or both so at least Indiana fans are getting their entertainment dollar's worth!
Iowa (#8 NET, #4 BPI) at Michigan State (#85 NET, #63 BPI):
I see this game as a potentially monumental turning point for both teams:
The Spartans looked abysmal coming out of their COVID pause. Scheduling didn't help, but they got absolutely annihilated in Picastaway then lost soundly in Columbus but after that they put up a respectable fight against these Hawkeyes in Iowa City before winning two straight home games (UNL, PSU). The question is whether or not Izzo's team can get a quality win. They only have one Q1 win (Rutgers on 1/5/21). That obviously isn't going to be enough to get them to the Tournament but they have LOTS of opportunities coming up:
- 2/13 vs IA, #8 NET, Q1
- 2/16 @ PU, #24 Q1
- 2/20 @ IU, #45 Q1
- 2/23 vs IL, #4 Q1
- 2/25 vs tOSU, #7 Q1
- 2/28 @ UMD, #43 Q1
- 3/7 vs M, #3 Q1
All seven games left on MSU's schedule (assuming none of the postponed games get rescheduled) are Q1 games. That is a blessing and a curse, of course but if they are going to extend their (and Izzo's) remarkable stretch of NCAA Tournament appearances they are either going to have to do some serious damage in these games or else have a monster weekend in the BTT.
Less than a month ago the Hawkeyes walked off the court in Evanston after their fifth straight league win. The only league loss was an OT game in Minneapolis and their only other loss was a neutral site loss to the #1 team in the country. The Hawkeyes were 12-2/6-1 and looked to be a probable #1 seed. Since then they are 2-4. What is worse is that their last six games, in theory, should have been relatively easy. Four of them were at home where they went 2-2 while going 0-2 on the road. Ie, they haven't won a road game since beating Northwestern on January 17. Will this be a mid-season funk that they come roaring back from or is this a midseason fade that just keeps declining?
Northwestern (#88 NET, #80 BPI) at Rutgers (#28 NET, #37 BPI):
Did you know that Northwestern started the conference season 3-0? If that seems like a long time ago, it was. They beat #4 MSU and #23 tOSU at home along with Indiana in Bloomington. They had also gone 3-1 OOC with the only blemish a one-point loss to Pitt so things looked pretty good. When they walked off the court the day after Christmas after beating the Buckeyes they were 6-1/3-0. Unfortunately for the Wildcats that was 10 games and 10 losses ago. Since then they have lost by blowout, they have lost by heartbreaker at the end, and they have lost in OT but the common thread is that they have lost. Can they get off the mat a win a B1G game? Well their last regular season game is at home against Nebraska so they probably can but they'd rather not wait that long.
For their part, the Scarlet Knights are a lot like Indiana. They just can't seem to break free of .500 in the league. They started 3-1 but then lost five straight to drop to 3-6 before winning four straight (7-6) and in their most recent outing they lost in Iowa City to fall back to .500 at 7-7. In theory Rutgers could make the Tournament even with a loss here but it would be a heck of a lot easier with a win here.
Michigan (#3 NET, #8 BPI) at Wisconsin (#18 NET, #14 BPI):
The Wolverines haven't played a live game since January 22, that was three weeks ago as I am writing this and it will be 23 days by the time their game with Wisconsin tips off. We all know that the Spartans set records for futility in their COVID return in Picastaway and frankly Madison is a tougher place to play and the Badgers are a better opponent. OTOH, the Wolverines appear to be a better team than the Spartans. I guess I should use the past tense "appeared" since nobody outside of Ann Arbor has seen a Wolverine play BB in nearly a month. Who knows what they look like now?
For the Badgers this game provides a much needed opportunity to get a quality win. Wisconsin is just 3-4 in Q1 games. The only B1G teams with less Q1 wins are the Spartans, Wildcats, and Cornhuskers. That is not company you want to keep if you plan on going to the Tournament.
Nebraska (#167 NET, #130 BPI) at Penn State (#31 NET, #47 BPI):
The Nittany Lions simply have to win this game. The Worldwide leader currently lists them among the "next four out" and you can't move up from there by losing to non-tournament teams like Nebraska. Penn State probably needs to pull off a few upsets to make it regardless but if they lose this they'll need multiple miracles down the stretch. They just can't afford to lose.
Minnesota (#49 NET, #56 BPI) at Maryland (#43 NET, #60 BPI):
The worldwide leader currently lists Minnesota as a #9 seed and Maryland as one of the next four out so they are both pretty close to the bubble. Both teams have played brutal schedules. The Terrapins are 4-10 in their 14 Q1 games while the Gophers are 4-6 in their 10. Both have quality wins but too many losses. Maryland is just 10-10 overall and 4-9 in the B1G while Minnesota is 13-7/6-7. This will be an important win for the winner and a difficult loss for the loser either way because they both really need wins.
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Huskers actually looked like a basketball team tonight
improvement
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Thank God for Ayo. Huskers put up a battle.
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Me earlier today: UW only winning by 15 in Nebraska seemed like a sign things are still off.
Me after seeing that score: This damn sport and league.
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Buckeye and Hoosiers at noon. I always circle this one because Buckeye fans really wanted Archie Miller and were mad at Gene Smith for slow playing moving on from Thad Matta. Another strong center for the short guys to try and guard.
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Huskers actually looked like a basketball team tonight
improvement
They've been getting close. I keep thinking they'll tag somebody in Lincoln. They've got UMD, RU, and PU left . . .
Thank God for Ayo. Huskers put up a battle.
Me earlier today: UW only winning by 15 in Nebraska seemed like a sign things are still off.
Me after seeing that score: This damn sport and league.
I told you:
Illinois (#4 NET, #7 BPI) at Nebraska (#167 NET, 130 BPI):
With Nebraska at 0-8 in the league this certainly looks like a mismatch but the Cornhuskers have been reasonably competitive at home. In their four previous B1G home games they (most recent to earliest):
- Lost to Wisconsin by 13
- Lost to Indiana by 8
- Lost to Michigan State (pre-Spartan COVID pause) by 7
- Lost to Michigan by 11
Yes, they are all losses but those are some really good opponents and none of those losses were complete blowouts. Illinois should win (and likely move to "lock" status but they shouldn't overlook the Cornhuskers.
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An ESPN tip for Buckeyes/Hoosiers, so looking forward to hearing about Duke for much of the game
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How did they not call a travel on that Sueing drive? I swear he took at least 4 steps 😂
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How did they not call a travel on that Sueing drive? I swear he took at least 4 steps 😂
And did it again... Mighty have only been 3 1/2 that time though lol...
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They certainly were eagle eyed calling travels on Zed Key. Trying to figure traveling calls in basketball will wear you out.
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They certainly were eagle eyed calling travels on Zed Key. Trying to figure traveling calls in basketball will wear you out.
A lot easier in the NBA. You pretty much have to jog full court with the ball above your head for them to call it.
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NCCA team reveals top 16 seeds. 1 seed for Michigan and OSU, 2 for Illinois, 4 for Iowa.
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Buckeyes rolled to an easy win today.
These next 5 games will be very interesting to see how good they really are.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuIOVblWYAEfnNx?format=jpg&name=small)
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These next 5 games will be very interesting to see how good they really are.
The final five for the Buckeyes are an odd mix where I feel like they are all basically toss-ups.
Two road games against mediocre teams (MSU, PSU) and three home games against the best the conference has to offer (M, IA, IL).
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Medina, are Illinois and Ohio State your only 2 locks so far? I'm assuming Michigan would join them with a win tomorrow.
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Would love to see a locks, probably in, bubble, out breakdown.
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Would love to see a locks, probably in, bubble, out breakdown.
I was planning on starting that Monday, after this weekend's games.
Medina, are Illinois and Ohio State your only 2 locks so far? I'm assuming Michigan would join them with a win tomorrow.
I mentally created a new category of "Probably a Lock" for Michigan this year.
Assuming they actually played 20 RS B1G games, lost out, and lost their BTT opener, they would finish 13-13/8-13 and that would not get them in so, by my very literal definition, not a lock.
OTOH, as a practical matter at this point it seems extremely unlikely that Michigan will play anywhere close to 20 RS B1G games. They are probably a lock because they may only play 15 RS B1G games in which case their worst-case-scenario is 8-8/13-8 which is probably good enough.
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OSU looked the part today. They go to PSU Thursday. The UM Wiscy game tomorrow will be interesting. Michigan faces Rutgers later this week. Wins all around and we are looking at a heck of a tilt next Sunday as OSU plays Michigan.
As far as tourney probabilities.
The NCAA released their top 16 today.
3. Michigan (1)
4. OSU (1)
5. Illinois (2)
13. Iowa (4)
Since that, Iowa blasted MSU. Going by T-Ranketology, B1G teams have the following odds to make the tourney (seed listed first):
1. Michigan - 100%
1. OSU - 100
2. Illinois - 100
2. Iowa - 99.9
3. Wiscy - 100
6. Purdue - 96.9
7. Rutgers - 87.0
9. Minny - 90.0
11. Indiana - 53.4
PSU - 14.9
Maryland 13.5
MSU - 3.2
NW - 0.2
Nebraska - 0.0
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Michigan looking fresh, taking care of the Badgers
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Michigan looking fresh, taking care of the Badgers
turning point is when Davison elbowed Smith in the chops. how can one player have so many of these types of plays and still allowed on the court.
man if I was his teammate I would have a thing or two to say to him about how it makes the rest of the team look
Saw Reuvers get a touchy foul right afterwards.
We will see how much the staff likes him if they allow him back again next year
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Ouch, Huskers finally bite somebody, and put a real damper on PSU's tourney hopes.
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Good for the Huskers, but Penn State really needed a win today.
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Ouch, Huskers finally bite somebody, and put a real damper on PSU's tourney hopes.
Yeah, I was thinking that the Lions had a difficult but plausible path to the Tournament before that but not now.
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When did college basketball switch to quarters?
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When did college basketball switch to quarters?
Women have played quarters a couple years. Men still on halves unless someone is doing something screwy.
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turning point is when Davison elbowed Smith in the chops. how can one player have so many of these types of plays and still allowed on the court.
man if I was his teammate I would have a thing or two to say to him about how it makes the rest of the team look
Saw Reuvers get a touchy foul right afterwards.
We will see how much the staff likes him if they allow him back again next year
I mean, the turning point was when the very good defense locked down the not very good offense.
They'll take him back if he wants to come back. They don't have a ton of seasoned guard depth. I'll leave the speculation about how much he's liked mostly as that. Speculation. It was a mostly mundane collision in a physical game of basketball. Not much difference than when a Badger caught an arm to the face later on.
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I mean, the turning point was when the very good defense locked down the not very good offense.
They'll take him back if he wants to come back. They don't have a ton of seasoned guard depth. I'll leave the speculation about how much he's liked mostly as that. Speculation. It was a mostly mundane collision in a physical game of basketball. Not much difference than when a Badger caught an arm to the face later on.
i can respect your view from your perspective. I saw both facials and only Davidsons (from what I saw) looked to have been thrown outside of the normal path to the basket.
Smith was on the side and not only did he lean into Smith but Brad also pointed his left elbow 90* to maximize his chances of connecting with the defender. I am sure he was not trying to hurt the player but rather trying to get a contact call for a shot at free throws.
However it woke the sleeping giant up and then there was a smothering defense that came after that and Michigans offense woke up.
the league is a physical one and often I feel this hurts a little come the tournament time as some refs will call a different game.
no doubt the Big Ten will be a conference with a lot of teams in the dance
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Good for the Huskers, but Penn State really needed a win today.
Huskers needed it more
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Women have played quarters a couple years. Men still on halves unless someone is doing something screwy.
Ah, the ESPN ticker got me again! lol
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However it woke the sleeping giant up and then there was a smothering defense that came after that and Michigans offense woke up.
Do you think that if he'd just hit a layup, that Michigan would've simply stayed slumbering? It was like 3-4 possessions into the half.
(For the play itself, it looks like he's holding the ball a bit odd, and ends up popping him. It was annoying because he ended up missing the layup. Oh well)
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Fro was watching women's basketball.
(https://media.tenor.com/images/6bb7798b51685ad34bbcd3ab2b6446c9/tenor.gif)
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Would love to see a locks, probably in, bubble, out breakdown.
My take (remember, I use a quite literal definition of "lock"):
Locks:
Ohio State 17-4/11-4:
The Buckeyes' worst case scenario is now 17-10/11-10. Additionally, the Buckeyes have a national best eight Q1 wins. Other teams would catch up if the Buckeyes lost out, but eight Q1 wins would still be very good even at the end of the season. The Buckeyes are in even if they lose out.
Michigan 14-1/9-1:
The Wolverines REALLY impressed me with that second half in Madison. I fully expected that they would come out a little sluggish/rusty after nearly a month off and they did. They fell behind by as much as 14 and trailed by 12 (39-27) at the half. it didn't matter. Michigan absolutely dominated the second half to the tune of 40-20. they locked down Wisconsin's offense and scored almost at will on Wisconsin's defense, impressive. Michigan's theoretical worst case scenario is 14-12/9-12 which might not get them in, but that would require them to actually play (and lose) 10 more regular season games and there just isn't enough time for that. Per the worldwide leader they only have five more RS games scheduled (six total with a BTT game) so their probable worst case scenario is about 14-7/9-7 and that would get them in.
Should be in:
Illinois 14-5/10-3:
The Illini's worst case scenario is theoretically 14-13/10-11 and it actually looks like they might play all of those games. That might get them in anyway but it would be close so for now I'll leave them here with the caveat that they are, at most, one win from clinching a bid. Ie, if they beat NU at home tonight, they are absolutely a lock.
Iowa 15-6/9-5:
The Hawkeyes' worst case scenario is 15-13/9-12 which might not get them in. At this point it looks like their home game against UNL might not get rescheduled (I'm not sure, just going by espn schedules) in which case their worst case is 15-12/9-11 which would be really close if not in. One more win and confirmation that the UNL game will not be rescheduled or two more wins and they are absolutely a lock.
Wisconsin 15-7/9-6:
The Badgers' worst case scenario is 15-13/9-12 and I do not think that would be enough considering that they are just 3-5 in Q1 games and 5-2 in Q2 games. It looks like they will play all 20 RS B1G games so I think they need two more wins to lock up a bid.
Purdue 13-8/8-6:
The Boilermakers' worst case scenario is 13-15/8-13 so they need more wins. It looks like they'll only play 19 RS B1G games so 10 B1G wins would probably guarantee them a spot, they need two more wins IMHO.
Rutgers 12-7/8-7:
The Scarlet Knights would be in if the Tournament started today but they still have some work to do.
Work to do:
Minnesota 13-8/6-8:
Per Lunardi, the Gophers would be a #10 seed with one of the "last four byes" if the Tournament started today. That is in, but by the skin of their teeth.
Indiana 11-9/6-7:
Like the Gophers, Lunardi has the Hoosiers as a #10 seed with one of the "last four byes" so in by the skin of their teeth.
Maryland 11-10/5-9:
Lunardi currently lists Maryland as the first team out so they could make it, but they have work to do. In their favor is the fact that all 10 of their losses are Q1 and that they have played what appears to be a nation leading 14 Q1 games. Working against them is that they are just barely over .500. They have an easier schedule down the stretch with Nebraska (home), Northwestern (road), Penn State (home) plus a road game at Rutgers and a home game with MSU. Winning out isn't implausible.
Needs a miraculous finish or a BTT win:
Michigan State 10-8/4-8:
It is weird to see the Spartans here. I'm a 45 year old guy and I was in college when Izzo took over and the last time MSU didn't go to the Tournament. Given how great they have been for the past two decades and Izzo's reputation for tuning November/December/January mediocrities into March/April Champions I'm not going to count them out until I absolutely have to. That said, Izzo is rapidly running out of time for anything but a potential auto-bid by winning the BTT.
The Spartans have lost five of seven wrapped around an extended COVID-19 pause and the only two wins were home games against PSU and UNL. In 2021 they have just four wins and only one (vs RU) was a quality win with the other three coming against UNL2x and PSU (home). Obviously this does not add up to a tournament resume. They are now #95 in the NET rankings and #73 in the BPI with just a 2-7 record in Q1 games. That said, they have six games left on the schedule (theoretical possibility for eight if postponed games are rescheduled) and all six are Q1. If they were to win out they'd enter the BTT at 16-8/10-8 and 8-7 in Q1 games and already a lock.
The issue, like I said, is that they are running out of time. I thought based on giving Iowa quite a game in Iowa City on February 2 that they were turning the corner but then they got drilled by Iowa at home on February 13 so now it doesn't look like it. They are at Purdue tonight and at Indiana this weekend and if they lose both of those I think they will fall into "need to win BTT" territory.
Penn State 7-10/4-9:
Prior to their home loss to Nebraska this weekend I thought that the Nittany Lions had a plausible path to an at-large bid. If they'd have won their home games (UNL, tOSU, PU, MN) then either stolen a road game (IA, UMD) or won one or two in the BTT I think they'd have been good. Now I think they need a miraculous finish pretty close to winning out.
Need to win BTT:
Northwestern 6-12/3-11:
The Wildcats only have five games left on the schedule so even if they won out they would hit the BTT at 11-12/8-11 so I think they'd need to win it.
Nebraska 5-12/1-9:
The Cornhuskers have six games left on the schedule so even if they won out they would hit the BTT at 11-12/7-9 so I think they'd need to win it.
Anybody have any disagreement or agreement?
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Lunardi's latest:
- #1 M, tOSU
- #2 IL
- #3 IA
- #5 UW
- #6 PU
- #7 RU
- #10 MN, IU
The Gophers and Hoosiers are listed as "last four byes" while Maryland is the first team out and there are no other B1G bubble teams.
FWIW, those seeds would typically result in:
- 6.44 teams in the R32
- 4.04 teams in the S16
- 2.45 teams in the E8
- 1.26 teams in the F4
- 0.71 teams in the NC
- 0.39 National Champions
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This week's games (Tues-Thurs):
Tuesday:
- 5-12/1-9 Nebraska at 11-10/5-9 Maryland (7pm, BTN): The Terps are barely out and need a win here not so much because the win would help but because the loss would hurt.
- 10-8/4-8 Michigan State at 13-8/8-6 Purdue (7pm, ESPN): The Spartans need to find themselves and start winning while PU just needs win volume to secure their bid and work on their seed.
- 6-12/3-11 Northwestern at 14-5/10-3 #5 Illinois (9pm, BTN): The Illini can, IMHO, lock up a bid tonight.
Wednesday:
- 13-8/6-8 Minnesota at 11-9/6-7 Indiana (9pm, BTN): Two of the B1G's three most bubbly teams (the other is UMD) going H2H. This is a huge game for both teams.
Thursday:
- 15-6/9-5 #11 Iowa at 15-7/9-6 #21 Wisconsin (7pm, ESPN3): Both are closing in on locking down a bid and working on their seed.
- 17-4/11-4 #4 Ohio State at 7-10/4-9 Penn State (8pm, BTN): In theory the Buckeyes should win big but remember that Ohio State just barely beat PSU in Columbus and it isn't altogether farfetched to think that they might be looking ahead to this weekend.
- 12-7/8-7 Rutgers at 14-1/9-1 #3 Michigan (9pm, FS1): The Wolverines are on Trap Game watch just like the Buckeyes because they play each other this weekend. That is a massive game with both teams as projected #1 seeds and both in the top-4 of the rankings.
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Thanks medina for putting that together. Hard to argue with it. I might bump MSU up a category if they can pull out this game against Purdue.
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Thanks medina for putting that together. Hard to argue with it. I might bump MSU up a category if they can pull out this game against Purdue.
With MSU's loss they are rapidly approaching "need to win BTT" territory.
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1997:
- Bill Clinton was sworn in to his second term as President.
- All games were broadcast in something called "Standard Definition" although we didn't call it that because there wasn't any HDTV so it was just the normal thing.
- Tom Izzo was in his second year as MSU's head coach following Jud Heathcote who was something of a legend in East Lansing having won the 1979 National Championship and made numerous NCAA Tournament appearances including in four of his last five years before retiring. Izzo was still a young new coach (then 42) so nobody knew if he would even work out at MSU (missed NCAA first two years) let alone that he would become a future hall of famer and completely overshadow his predecessor and mentor.
- Gonzaga was still a relatively unknown small school somewhere in the Pacific Northwest. (They were one-and-done in the 1995 NCAA Tournament and missed the next three (1996, 1997, 1998) before kicking off their current run with an E8 appearance in 1999).
- I was still a student at Ohio State.
The point is, it was a LONG time ago. This was also the last time there was an NCAA Tournament without Michigan State.
Longest ever NCAA Tournament streaks:
- 30 Kansas, 1990-present
- 27 North Carolina, 1975-2001
- 24 Dook, 1996-present
- 22 Michigan State, 1998-present
- 21 Gonzaga, 1999-present
- 19 Wisconsin, 1999-2017
- 18 Indiana, 1986-2003
- 17 Kentucky, 1992-2008
- 15 UCLA, 1967-1981
- 14 Texas, 1999-2012
- 14 Cincinnati, 1992-3005
- 14 Arizona, 1985-1998 (part of 25 straight but portions were later vacated)
Active Streaks in Bold, B1G teams in Italics.
Michigan State currently holds the fourth longest ever NCAA Tournament streak and the third longest active streak. At this point, however, that streak is in very serious jeopardy of ending next month.
The most obvious path for the Spartans, at this point, would be to win the BTT. That may soon become the only path. My question for this post is can the Spartans keep their streak alive without winning the BTT?
At present the Spartans are:
- 10-9 overall
- 4-9 in the B1G
- 2-8 in Q1 games
- 2-1 in Q2 games
- 2-0 in Q3 games
- 4-0 in Q4 games
- #93 in the NET Rankings
- #76 in BPI
- #71 in KenPom
- #25 in SoS Rank (per BPI)
- #62 in SoR Rank (per BPI, a ranking of the difficulty of attaining this record against this schedule)
Things do not look good.
OTOH, all of us have seen Izzo turn November/December mediocrities into March/April Champions and there is talent on the roster so I'm not ready to write the epitaph for their streak yet, but time is running out fast.
Here is what the Spartans have left in the RS (with current NET Ranking and Quadrant value):
- at Indiana on 2/20, #50, Q1
- vs Illinois on 2/23, #4, Q1
- vs Ohio State on 2/25, #6, Q1
- at Maryland on 2/28, #36, Q1
- vs Michigan on 3/7, #3, Q1
So three home games against the third, fourth, and sixth best teams in the Nation and two road games against top-50 opponents, YIKES!
Then there is the B1G Tournament. As it stands right now the Spartans are in 11th place so they would play a Wednesday game. If the BTT started today they would play
- Nebraska on Wednesday (#141, Q3)
- Purdue on Thursday (#27, Q1).
- Ohio State on Friday (#6, Q1).
- Their Saturday opponent would be the winner of Illinois (#4, Q1) vs either Wisconsin (#19, Q1) or Minnesota (#52, Q2 but would improve to Q1 if Minnesota beat both UW and IL to get there).
- Finally, their Sunday opponent would be either Michigan (#3, Q1) or Iowa (#7, Q1), or Rutgers (#29, Q1), or Maryland (#36, Q1), or Penn State (#38, Q1), or Indiana (#50, Q1), or Northwestern (Q2).
Michigan State's theoretical Best-Case-Scenario without winning the BTT would be to win their last five RS games which would probably move them out of playing on Wednesday in the BTT then go 3-1 in the BTT in which case all four games would likely be Q1 so their final record for the committee to consider would be:
- 18-10 overall
- 12-10 in B1G games (includes 3-1 in BTT)
- 10-9 in Q1 games
- 2-1 in Q2 games
- 2-0 in Q3 games
- 4-0 in Q4 games
That would EASILY get them in so they aren't finished yet but, like I said, they are rapidly running out of time. Each additional loss gets them closer to needing to win the BTT. Ie, if they lose their next three (at IU, vs IL, vs tOSU) then their Best-Case-Scenario short of winning the BTT drops to:
- 15-13 overall
- 9-13 in B1G games (includes 3-1 in BTT)
- 7-12 in Q1 games
- 2-1 in Q2
- 2-0 in Q3
- 4-0 in Q4
IMHO, that is borderline but might sneak them in partially because the committee may decline to make alternative brackets based on MSU winning (auto-bid) or losing (needs an at-large) the B1GCG. Anything less than that, IMHO, is clearly out as they would be just .500 overall and well below that in both B1G and Q1 games.
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Current B1g NCAA Tournament appearance streaks:
- 22 Michigan State (1998-present)
- 5 Purdue (2015-present)
- 4 Michigan (2016-present)
- 2 Ohio State (2018-present)
- 1 Wisconsin (2019-present)
- 1 Iowa (2019-present)
- 1 Maryland (2019-present)
- 1 Minnesota (2019-present)
- n/a Northwestern, last was 2017
- n/a Indiana, 2016
- n/a Nebraska, 2014
- n/a Illinois, 2013
- n/a Penn State, 2011
- n/a Rutgers, 1991
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An amazing run.
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With MSU's loss they are rapidly approaching "need to win BTT" territory.
That game was an old-school Spartan/Boiler rock fight. Ugly but fun to watch.
It was a game that I don't think any Boiler fans felt comfortable until the final moments. Purdue led almost the entire game, but every time they'd separate, MSU would come back to almost tied.
Although the ESPN win probability graph shows it being on the Boiler side of the ledger the entire game (even late in the 1st half when MSU briefly led), MSU's last run dropped the win% to only 57% with 5:31 to play. Hardly a settled affair at that point.
In the end, what it really came down to was MSU's inability to stop Purdue in the paint. Particularly Trevion Williams, who finished with 28, but Zach Edey had 10 (4-8 from the field plus 2 FT), and a number of Ivey & Hunter's points were at the rim too.
I think MSU had the right gameplan for Trevion, as they manhandled him off the low block numerous times. It's the same strategy used against Isaac Haas a couple years back. But Tre was on fire and he didn't have any trouble scoring from a little farther out than usual.
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That game was an old-school Spartan/Boiler rock fight. Ugly but fun to watch.
It was a game that I don't think any Boiler fans felt comfortable until the final moments. Purdue led almost the entire game, but every time they'd separate, MSU would come back to almost tied.
Although the ESPN win probability graph shows it being on the Boiler side of the ledger the entire game (even late in the 1st half when MSU briefly led), MSU's last run dropped the win% to only 57% with 5:31 to play. Hardly a settled affair at that point.
In the end, what it really came down to was MSU's inability to stop Purdue in the paint. Particularly Trevion Williams, who finished with 28, but Zach Edey had 10 (4-8 from the field plus 2 FT), and a number of Ivey & Hunter's points were at the rim too.
I think MSU had the right gameplan for Trevion, as they manhandled him off the low block numerous times. It's the same strategy used against Isaac Haas a couple years back. But Tre was on fire and he didn't have any trouble scoring from a little farther out than usual.
I keep seeing results like this where MSU looks decent and thinking "Ah, here is Izzo's typical late season improvement, they'll be a Tournament team for sure."
I thought that after they pushed Iowa in Iowa City too.
Maybe this time they have found themselves and we'll see a more typical Izzo team from here on out. Maybe they'll get a win in Assembly Hall in Bloomington this weekend then come home and beat both Illinois and Ohio State (next week, Tues/Thurs) or at least split those two while looking competitive.
The concern for them is that they are running out of time. The games in Iowa City and West Lafayette were competitive losses to very good teams but also since they returned they got absolutely drilled in Picastaway (67-37) and again at home by Iowa (88-58). At this point there isn't much margin for error remaining.
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That streak thing reminds me first of how lucky I was a Wisconsin fan to have seen most of it, and also that even if this season ends up being a disappointment in Madison, if they make the tournament, that matters in its own notable way.
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The Gophers took advantage of MSU being a non-entity that spring to win their last Big Ten title, get a #1 seed, and go to the Final Four in Indianapolis.
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Maryland beats Nebraska and the Hoosiers beat Minny last night. Minnesota has yet to win on the road.
Fun night tonight - Iowa at Wiscy, OSU at PSU, Rutgers at Michigan
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Maryland beats Nebraska and the Hoosiers beat Minny last night. Minnesota has yet to win on the road.
It is crazy. The Gophers are 13-1 at home including wins over both Michigan and Ohio State. That is not only a Tournament resume but a HIGH seed resume. Then they are 0-7 on the road.
Fun night tonight - Iowa at Wiscy, OSU at PSU, Rutgers at Michigan
I agree. I mentioned this upthread, but I think that both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines should be on "Trap Game" watch tonight based on their upcoming H2H game this weekend. It isn't crazy to think that one or both of them could be peeking ahead at a MONSTER AP top-4 match-up of two projected #1 seeds.
The Gophers took advantage of MSU being a non-entity that spring to win their last Big Ten title, get a #1 seed, and go to the Final Four in Indianapolis.
*
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The Gophers took advantage of MSU being a non-entity that spring to win their last Big Ten title, get a #1 seed, and go to the Final Four in Indianapolis.
*
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If North Carolina can still have their banners up from what they obtained during their academic fraud, the U should have their banners up as well.
Besides, I have a whole stack of newspapers from that time documenting the craziness.
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UNC (and Dook and KY and KU and ...) get to play by a different set of rules.
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If North Carolina can still have their banners up from what they obtained during their academic fraud, the U should have their banners up as well.
Besides, I have a whole stack of newspapers from that time documenting the craziness.
No one is saying they can't hang the banners. Just that opposing fans will sass them about it. :)
(That team was quite good from what I've read)
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Year after year Iowa and Wisconsin always field more white players than you typically see in a college basketball game.
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racists
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I'm wondering if we need to start worrying about the Badgers. Gotta beat Northwestern and probably squeeze out at least one more. They will probably be an underdog in their last 4 games.
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Good Win by the Bucks. PSU is always scrappy vs. OSU.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EujxiXtXEAMmaUh?format=jpg&name=small)
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Didn’t watch most of the game, but early on, shooting was just trash. Weird kind of season for them this year. Oh well.
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Top 5 tilt for UM/OSU Sunday. I read somewhere that's a first.
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I'm wondering if we need to start worrying about the Badgers. Gotta beat Northwestern and probably squeeze out at least one more. They will probably be an underdog in their last 4 games.
I think they'll make the tournament but their woeful record against quality opponents is concerning to say the least. The Badgers are just 2-5 against the .500+ B1G teams and they are even sub .500 against the league's top-12 (6-7 against all but NU/UNL).
The Badgers are now in sixth place and they are 0-5 against the five teams ahead of them in the standings:
- 0-2 against Michigan
- 0-1 against Illinois, home game remaining
- 0-1 against Ohio State, no more games
- 0-1 against Iowa, road game remaining
- 0-0 against Purdue, road game remaining
They are in sixth place because they are near-perfect against teams behind them (9-2 with losses @PSU and vsUMD both balanced off by wins against those teams).
Remaining games:
- @ Northwestern on 2/21, beat them 68-52 at home
- vs Illinois on 2/27, lost 75-60 to them in Champaign
- @ Purdue on 3/2, haven't played them yet
- @ Iowa on 3/7, lost to them 77-62 at home.
That looks likely to result in a 1-3 finish but they are 15-8/9-7 so that would get them to the BTT at 16-11/10-10. So long as they beat Northwestern, I agree with you that they probably only need one additional win to get in (and maybe not even that). Any of those last three regular season games or a BTT game would do it.
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If the BTT started today:
Wednesday:
- #11 Penn State vs #14 Nebraska
- #12 Michigan State vs #13 Northwestern
Thursday:
- #5 Purdue vs MSU/NU
- #6 Wisconsin vs PSU/UNL
- #7 Rutgers* vs #10 Minnesota
- #8 Indiana* vs #9 Maryland
Friday:
- #1 Michigan vs IU/UMD
- #2 Illinois vs RU/MN
- #3 Ohio State vs UW/PSU/UNL
- #4 Iowa vs PU/MSU/NU
Saturday:
- M/IU/UMD vs IA/PU/MSU/NU
- IL/RU/MN vs tOSU/UW/PSU/UNL
Sunday:
M/IU/UMD/IA/PU/MSU/NU vs IL/RU/MN/tOSU/UW/PSU/UNL
*Note that Rutgers and Indiana are tied at exactly .500. Rutgers wins that tie because they won the only game between the two, in Bloomington.
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(https://i.imgur.com/uYR2T39.jpg)
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Top 5 tilt for UM/OSU Sunday. I read somewhere that's a first.
I can't wait, this game is HUGE! Not only is it a top-4 AP match-up and a rivalry game and a game between two projected #1 seeds, but it is also just about the last chance to derail Michigan's regular season B1G Title hopes.
Regular season title race:
Michigan is firmly in first place at 10-1 and, at present, they only have four games left on their schedule so their absolute worst case scenario (assuming nothing gets rescheduled) is 10-5. If they beat Ohio State that improves to 11-4.
There are really only two other contenders:
- 11-3 Illinois and
- 12-4 Ohio State
The Illini and Buckeyes are both projected to play the initially planned 20 league games but that includes playing each other in Columbus in the final game of the season for both teams. If either IL or tOSU wins out, they would finish 17-3 (IL) or 16-4 (tOSU). So for either of them to claim at least a share of the title, the Wolverines (on their 15 game schedule) would have to finish no better than 12-3.
If the Buckeyes lose this weekend they will be practically (although not technically mathematically) eliminated because the only way to get even a share after losing to Michigan would be for Michigan to lose out (finish 11-4 or .733) while Ohio State won out (finish 15-5 or .750).
The Illini have perhaps a little better starting point since they only have three losses but they have two disadvantages vis-a-vis the Buckeyes:
- They don't get a crack at the Wolverines themselves so they need other teams to take them out, and
- The tOSU/IL game at the end of the season is in Columbus.
Since either Ohio State or Illinois needs Michigan to lose two games, one of them almost has to be this weekend at Ohio State. Otherwise the Wolverines would have to lose at least two out of their last three:
- @ IU on 2/27
- vs IA on 3/4
- @ MSU on 3/7
If the Buckeyes beat Michigan and Illinois wins their game this weekend (@MN) then we have a three-team race for the Championship. If Illinois or Ohio State lose then it is a two team race at best and if both lose then, at least practically, Michigan clinches.
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This weekend should be exciting. All 14 B1G teams have league games and nearly every team is within +/-1 game of at least one other team so a lot of movement in the standings is possible.
Saturday:
- 10-9/4-9 Michigan State at 12-9/7-7 Indiana, noon ESPN
- 15-5/11-3 #5 Illinois at 13-9/6-9 Minnesota, 330pm
- 14-8/9-6 Purdue at 5-14/1-11 Nebraska, 530pm BTN
Sunday:
- 15-1/10-1 #3 Michigan at 18-4/12-4 #4 Ohio State, 1pm CBS
- 13-10/7-9 Maryland at 12-8/8-8 Rutgers, 3pm
- 7-11/4-10 Penn State at 16-6/10-5 #11 Iowa, 5pm
- 15-8/9-7 #21 Wisconsin at 6-13/3-12 Northwestern, 7pm BTN
What is at stake:
- MSU@IU: The Spartans need to start winning to have any chance of extending their NCAA Tournament streak without winning the BTT. The Hoosiers need wins to stay on the right side of .500 for NCAA purposes.
- IL@MN: This might look like a mismatch and it probably would be in Champaign but in Minneapolis the Gophers are REALLY tough. They already have wins over the other two B1G title contenders . . .
- PU@UNL: All about win volume and avoiding what would obviously be a bad loss for the Boilermakers.
- M@tOSU: Covered in a post upthread, this is HUGE not only for these two and IL (B1G title chances) but nationally as well.
- UMD@RU: Both are close to the bubble making this a critical game for both.
- PSU@IA: IMHO, if the Nittany Lions lose this they fell into the "need to win BTT" category. Iowa just needs the win to keep up.
- UW@NU: Wisconsin would be in a heap of trouble with a loss here considering what they have coming.
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Other teams with a mathematical chance to win the B1G Regular Season Title:
Iowa 10-5:
The Hawkeyes are in fourth place and have four games left on the schedule but two of the four are against teams ahead of them in the standings. Their remaining games are:
- vs PSU on 2/21
- @ tOSU on 2/28
- @ M on 3/4
- vs UW on 3/7
That takes them to 19 games and assumes that their home game against UNL does NOT get rescheduled. If they were to win out they would finish 14-5. Assuming Michigan plays only 15 games, here are all of the things Iowa would need (in addition to winning out):
- Michigan to lose at least two other games (finish 11-4 or worse)
- Illinois to lose at least three more games (finish 14-6 or worse)
- Ohio State to lose at least one other game (finish 14-6 or worse)
It is a mathematical possibility but not a practical one.
Purdue 9-6:
The Boilermakers are in fifth place and have four games left on the schedule. Assuming nothing gets rescheduled and PU wins out, they still would need all of the following to get at least a share of the B1G title:
- Michigan to lose out (finish 10-5)
- Illinois to lose at least four of their last six (finish 13-7 or worse)
- Ohio State to lose their last three (finish 13-7)
- Iowa to beat both M and tOSU but lose at least one of vsPSU or vsUW (finish 13-6 or 12-7)
It is a mathematical but not a practical possibility.
All other teams are mathematically eliminated because they have at least seven losses so they couldn't catch the Wolverines even if they won out and the Wolverines lost out.
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So is Purdue a lock with a win over Nebraska tomorrow?
Currently they're 14-8, 9-6 in conference. A win over Nebraska would get them to 15-8 and 10-6.
Remaining schedule would be @PSU, vWIS, vIU. There's not a bad loss in that group. First BTT game also likely not a bad loss, as they'd be getting into the conference tourney at a >.500 record so they'd be somewhere in the 7-8 seed most likely.
Losing out after tomorrow would be 15-12 and 10-10. They'd drop a few seed lines, but I think they'd be solidly on the right side of the bubble, yeah?
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So is Purdue a lock with a win over Nebraska tomorrow?
Currently they're 14-8, 9-6 in conference. A win over Nebraska would get them to 15-8 and 10-6.
Remaining schedule would be @PSU, vWIS, vIU. There's not a bad loss in that group. First BTT game also likely not a bad loss, as they'd be getting into the conference tourney at a >.500 record so they'd be somewhere in the 7-8 seed most likely.
Losing out after tomorrow would be 15-12 and 10-10. They'd drop a few seed lines, but I think they'd be solidly on the right side of the bubble, yeah?
How many B1G games are they going to play? I've got 19 (15 so far plus @UNL, @PSU, vsUW, vsIU) so I think yes. Beating Nebraska then losing out (including BTT opener) would be the 15-12/10-10 as you suggested and I think that would be in especially because that season sweep of the Buckeyes just keeps looking better and better. Back when Purdue beat the Buckeyes they were #20 (5-0) and #15 (11-3) but the Buckeyes have won seven straight since losing a second time to the Boilermakers and are now #4 and 18-4.
Assuming the home game against Nebraska doesn't get rescheduled (and lost), I think Purdue is in with a win in Lincoln tomorrow.
Assuming no more games are rescheduled, here is what I have (abbreviated version):
Locks:
- 15-1/10-1 Michigan
- 18-4/12-4 Ohio State
- 15-5/11-3 Illinois
- 16-6/10-5 Iowa
Should be in:
- 14-8/9-6 Purdue
- 15-8/9-7 Wisconsin
Work left to do:
- 12-8/8-8 Rutgers
- 12-9/7-7 Indiana
- 13-10/7-9 Maryland
- 13-9/6-9 Minnesota
Needs a miraculous finish and/or BTT Title:
- 10-9/4-9 Michigan State
- 7-11/4-10 Penn State
Cannot reach Tournament without winning BTT:
- 6-13/3-12 Northwestern
- 5-14/1-11 Nebraska
Additional thoughts on the teams closest to the bubble:
Rutgers:
The Scarlet Knights are 12-8/8-8 with four games plus the BTT to go. They have two home games (UMD, IU) and a road game at Nebraska left. They should be favored in all three of those and if they win those three I think they are in.
Indiana:
The Hoosiers are 12-9/7-7 with four games plus the BTT to go. They have a tougher remaining road with home games against the two Michigan schools and road games against RU and PU. I'm not confident that 2-3 (BTT loss) gets them there. It might, but I wouldn't be confident unless they can get three more wins.
Maryland:
The Terps are 13-10/7-9 but they have played a brutal schedule and what they have left is manageable. They could win out to the BTT (@RU, vsMSU, @NU, vsPSU). That would clearly get them in. Any combination of four more wins probably gets them in.
Minnesota:
The Gophers are 13-9/6-9 with four games left (vsIL, vsNU, @PSU, vsRU). They are two completely different teams at home and on the road. At home they are a #1 seed (see wins over both tOSU and M) and on the road . . . they aren't even an NIT team. If that continues they should finish 3-1 to enter the BTT at 16-10/9-10. I think they'd still need a win or maybe two in the BTT.
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https://247sports.com/college/michigan/Article/Three-games-rescheduled-for-Michigan-mens-basketball-Illinois-MSU-Iowa-161184221/Amp/
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The Game Basketball Style KenPom
1. Iowa (3)
2. Michigan (4)
3. OSU (5)
4. Illinois (6)
5. Wisconsin (15)
6. Purdue (21)
7. Rutgers (25)
8. Indiana (28)
9. Maryland (33)
10. PSU (38)
11. Minnesota (41)
12. Northwestern (68)
13. MSU (69)
14. Nebraska (117)
Whoeee that top 4
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MSU is playing all of their makeup games.
They have 7 games in the next 15 days, being UM (twice), OSU, Illinois, Indiana (twice) and @Maryland.
At least you can't accuse Izzo of pulling a Harbaugh or K and using the pandemic to get out of playing games in a down year.
If MSU even goes 2-5 through that, I'll be shocked.
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MSU is playing all of their makeup games.
They have 7 games in the next 15 days, being UM (twice), OSU, Illinois, Indiana (twice) and @Maryland.
At least you can't accuse Izzo of pulling a Harbaugh or K and using the pandemic to get out of playing games in a down year.
If MSU even goes 2-5 through that, I'll be shocked.
The quick turnarounds could be an issue for not only the two Michigan schools that are catching up but also for some of their opponents that have games shoehorned into the schedule.
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If MSU wins a title, this is our Tim Tebow speech we carve into the arena
https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1363205558342471685?s=19
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When it looked like Michigan would only play 15 games my thinking was that Ohio State's best chance at a league title was to win out (including a win over Michigan tomorrow) thus finishing 16-4 and for Michigan to lose one additional game to finish 12-3. Both 16-4 and 12-3 are .750 so that would have resulted in a split title.
With Michigan now scheduled to play 17 B1G games the math for tOSU and Illinois (the only serious contenders) is as follows:
- If Michigan finishes 15-2 or better (one more loss), nobody can catch them.
- If Michigan finishes 14-3 only Illinois can catch them, and only by winning out to finish 17-3.
- If Michigan finishes 13-4 (three more losses) then Illinois or Ohio State can beat them by also finishing with four or less losses (16-4).
- If Michigan finishes 12-5 (four more losses) then Illinois, Ohio State, or Iowa can catch them by finishing with five or less losses (15-5).
I'm not sure if this makes Ohio State's chances better or worse. They are better because one of the extra games is against Illinois and because Michigan is going to have a slew of quick turnarounds. They are worse because Ohio State now cannot catch the Wolverines unless they lose at least three of their last six.
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When it looked like Michigan would only play 15 games my thinking was that Ohio State's best chance at a league title was to win out (including a win over Michigan tomorrow) thus finishing 16-4 and for Michigan to lose one additional game to finish 12-3. Both 16-4 and 12-3 are .750 so that would have resulted in a split title.
With Michigan now scheduled to play 17 B1G games the math for tOSU and Illinois (the only serious contenders) is as follows:
- If Michigan finishes 15-2 or better (one more loss), nobody can catch them.
- If Michigan finishes 14-3 only Illinois can catch them, and only by winning out to finish 17-3.
- If Michigan finishes 13-4 (three more losses) then Illinois or Ohio State can beat them by also finishing with four or less losses (16-4).
- If Michigan finishes 12-5 (four more losses) then Illinois, Ohio State, or Iowa can catch them by finishing with five or less losses (15-5).
I'm not sure if this makes Ohio State's chances better or worse. They are better because one of the extra games is against Illinois and because Michigan is going to have a slew of quick turnarounds. They are worse because Ohio State now cannot catch the Wolverines unless they lose at least three of their last six.
Have they announced how they are determining a champion?
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Have they announced how they are determining a champion?
I'm fairly certain that the rule is simply winning percentage so number of games is irrelevant except in that it relates to the percentage. Ie, if Ohio State wins out to finish 16-4 while Michigan loses to Ohio State and one other game to finish 14-3 the Wolverines win because:
- 14/17=.824 while
- 16/20=.750
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Illini are punishing the Gophers.
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I couldn't find any actual rule on the matter. The other way they could do it is like baseball standings, a half game up for a win and down for a loss. If they do that Illinois could potentially win out and catch them, I think. Illini looking the part today.
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- IL@MN: This might look like a mismatch and it probably would be in Champaign but in Minneapolis the Gophers are REALLY tough. They already have wins over the other two B1G title contenders . . .
Nevermind, apparently Illinois is immune to Minnesota's home court advantage!
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Not a good day for the B1G's bubble teams. Indiana and Minnesota took their 8th and 10th losses respectively today.
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Announcer just said Jaden Ivey isn't afraid of big games when Purdue is playing Nebraska, and he's not afraid of the Big Ten Network...
Umm... Nebraska is at the bottom of the league and BTN is the network that has to show B1G games when no bigger networks (ESPN/Fox/CBS) picks them up.
I realize why a BTN announcer has to say that... But c'mon, man!
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LoL
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In general, late in the first half I'm giving credit to Nebraska's defense. They're playing hard and making life hard on the Purdue offense. Purdue is finally hitting some 3s which is a big difference so far.
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Nebraska not going away. 40-37 Boilers at the half.
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For the second time this year WVU erases a 19 point second half lead to win a game. Beats Texas 84-82. You can’t turn off a Mountaineer game this year. They can’t hold a lead but they are also never out of a game. They are now 5-3 in games this year where they have trailed by at least 10 points at some point in the game.
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For the second time this year WVU erases a 19 point second half lead to win a game. Beats Texas 84-82. You can’t turn off a Mountaineer game this year. They can’t hold a lead but they are also never out of a game. They are now 5-3 in games this year where they have trailed by at least 10 points at some point in the game.
I watched that ending, exciting!
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(https://www.pilotonline.com/resizer/360H9YqfV7N1_51xPkyr1NiCb1o=/415x632/top/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tronc.s3.amazonaws.com/public/G2QR7XWWJJHOVGZPIZH7TU7DXA.jpg)
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SkiCat, Forever, and I saw Huggy on a Sunday morning walking down the sidewalk in the Little Apple wearing a linen suit. Not white, but much lighter than the pic above.
Looking GOOOOD!!!
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(https://www.pilotonline.com/resizer/360H9YqfV7N1_51xPkyr1NiCb1o=/415x632/top/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tronc.s3.amazonaws.com/public/G2QR7XWWJJHOVGZPIZH7TU7DXA.jpg)
The night he wore that suit WVU played Cincinnati and shot something like 1-22 from 3 point range and only scored 39 points in a lopsided loss. He hasn’t worn it since.
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I fondly remember the motley crew Huggy recruited to Cincinnati, maybe exemplified by Art Long, who was charged with punching a police horse.
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He had some characters.
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Huggins and Cincinnati were the perfect marriage. Big mean street ballers.
They'd take the ball at gunpoint in the full court press, and then dunk on you in transition, balls in the face.
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No Musa Jallow for the Buckeyes
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No Musa Jallow for the Buckeyes
(https://www.dynastynerds.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Next-Man-Up-e1579311662296.jpg)
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Man a cracker of a first half. 45-43 Michigan led by some blistering three point shooting.
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Did one of the Wolverines have his hair cut like a Michigan helmet? Did I see that right?
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Heck of a game in Columbus. Neither team has been able to break free so far although both have seemed on the verge.
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Oh well, it was a good game :(
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Oh well, it was a good game :(
That behind the back pass to nowhere was a catastrophe for Ohio State. At that point tOSU was down three and had the ball. Then that pass went to nowhere, Michigan picked it up, got a bucket and a foul and all of a sudden it was a six point game.
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(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/3e/d8/6c/3ed86cdfe9af6d5e03c04bacdb4b4a99.jpg)
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That behind the back pass to nowhere was a catastrophe for Ohio State. At that point tOSU was down three and had the ball. Then that pass went to nowhere, Michigan picked it up, got a bucket and a foul and all of a sudden it was a six point game.
It’s crazy in a close, hard fought game how a play like that can be so deflating. Being down 6 feels like being down 12.
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It’s crazy in a close, hard fought game how a play like that can be so deflating. Being down 6 feels like being down 12.
Exactly. I think there was a little under 2 minutes and it was a three point game. That is anybody's game. If Ohio State scores a bucket or a three it becomes a tie or a one point game. Instead turnover plus bucket plus foul plus made FT results in a six point game that, as you said, feels like it might as well be 12.
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Obviously it's hard not to latch onto the Sueing play, but overall the Buckeyes only turned it over 9 times. They shot well and played about as well as I could've expected. The game against Iowa broke their way late, while this one broke against them.
Now to see if they can avoid a let down against a desperate Sparty team. Still have to get some more wins to stay in the top 4.
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Wisconsin thumped NW, which is bad. I'm not sure UW wins another game scheduled (maybe not another game), but avoiding that loss should mean a trip to the tournament.
Not sure what to make of this team. Will be interesting if more or fewer than the expected two seniors return.
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I think it's time to Davison to move on. He's become a liability.
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B1G Regular Season Title Race:
The Buckeyes, Hawkeyes, and Boilermakers all still have a mathematical chance but it is only theoretical. Purdue and the IA/tOSU loser would need Michigan to lose all of their last five games while the tOSU/IA winner would need Michigan to lose at least four out of their last five.
Thus, the only team still practically chasing the Wolverines is Illinois. The Illini's chances frankly took a big hit when Michigan won in Columbus because the Illini can't get there by themselves, they need help.
Michigan is 11-1 with five games to go. Illinois is 12-3 with five games to go. Illinois is scheduled to play 20 games while Michigan is scheduled to play 17 so there is no mathematical possibility of a tie. If the Illini and Wolverines end up with the same number of losses, Illinois wins because they will have more wins and thus a superior winning percentage. Thus, here is what needs to happen:
- If Michigan goes 4-1 or better in their last five they finish 15-2 or better and win the league no matter what.
- If Michigan goes 3-2 in their last five they finish 14-3. Illinois could win the league but only by winning out to finish 17-3.
- If Michigan goes 2-3 in their last five they finish 13-4. Illinois could win the league by going 4-1 or better to finish 16-4 or better.
- If Michigan goes 1-4 in their last five they finish 12-5. Illinois could win the league by going 3-2 or better to finish 15-5 or better. Also, either Iowa or Ohio State could be in the mix by winning out.
- If Michigan goes 0-5 in their last five they finish 11-6. Illinois could win the league by going 2-3 or better to finish 14-6 or better. Also, Iowa, Ohio State, and Purdue could potentially be in the mix.
How good (or not) is Wisconsin? Wisconsin is 10-7 which is great but they are 0-5 against B1G teams with .500 or better records in the league. That 10-7 consists of:
- 0-2 against 11-1 Michigan
- 0-1 at 12-3 Illinois - home game remaining
- 0-1 vs 12-5 Ohio State
- 0-1 vs 11-5 Iowa - road game remaining
- 0-0 vs 10-6 Purdue - road game remaining
- 1-0 @ 8-9 Rutgers (Wisconsin's best win)
- 1-1 against 8-9 Maryland
- 1-0 vs 7-8 Indiana
- 1-0 vs 6-10 Minnesota
- 1-0 @ 5-9 Michigan State
- 1-1 against 4-11 Penn State
- 2-0 against 3-13 Northwestern
- 2-0 against 1-12 Nebraska
If Wisconsin wins again before the BTT, that win will be their best of the year so far.
At their current 10-7/16-8 the Badgers would clearly be in if the Tournament started today but they have a serious deficiency in the "signature win" category. Their best win is an absolute demolition of Louisville at home but that happened before Christmas. Since we flipped our calendars to 2021 the Badgers' wins have come almost exclusively against teams that will NOT be Dancing. That is a concern particularly if Wisconsin loses out to finish 10-11 in games against B1G opponents and 16-12 overall. My guess is that would still be enough to get them in, but not by much and they'd be looking at a REALLY tough match-up in the second round.
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I didn't see it mentioned but with Iowa's 74-68 win over PSU, Luka Garza surpassed Roy Marble to become Iowa's all time leading scorer. Theoretically, barring injury or COVID cancelations, with four regular season games, BTT and NCAA he could finish 4th or 5th all time in the BIG. A caveat, he would still have an option to return to IA next year (highly unlikely) which would put him firmly in the grasp of Calbert Cheaney at 2613 (Garza is now at 2126).
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If the BTT started right now:
Wednesday:
- #11 Michigan State vs #14 Nebraska
- #12 Penn State vs #13 Northwestern
Thursday:
- #5 Purdue vs PSU/NU
- #6 Wisconsin vs MSU/UNL
- #7 Rutgers* vs #10 Minnesota
- #8 Maryland* vs #9 Indiana
Friday:
- #1 Michigan vs UMD/IU
- #2 Illinois vs RU/MN
- #3 Ohio State vs UW/MSU/UNL
- #4 Iowa vs PU/PSU/NU
Saturday:
- M/UMD/IU vs IA/PU/PSU/NU
- IL/RU/MN vs tOSU/UW/MSU/UNL
Sunday:
- M/UMD/IU/IA/PU/PSU/NU vs IL/RU/MN/tOSU/UW/MSU/UNL
* Maryland and Rutgers are tied for 7th/8th at 8-9. The first tiebreaker is H2H but they split the season series with each team winning the road game. The next tiebreaker is "best win" (in the B1G rulebook it is defined as record against the best team, then the next, etc but I call it "best win" because that is effectively what it is.). Neither team has a win over Michigan and both teams are 1-0 against Illinois and 0-season against tOSU and Iowa. That brings us to Purdue where the Terrapins are 1-1 and the Scarlet Knights are 1-0 so Rutgers wins.
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I didn't see it mentioned but with Iowa's 74-68 win over PSU, Luka Garza surpassed Roy Marble to become Iowa's all time leading scorer. Theoretically, barring injury or COVID cancelations, with four regular season games, BTT and NCAA he could finish 4th or 5th all time in the BIG. A caveat, he would still have an option to return to IA next year (highly unlikely) which would put him firmly in the grasp of Calbert Cheaney at 2613 (Garza is now at 2126).
Man, I remember watching those Iowa teams with Marble, Armstrong and Horton. That was a fun team.
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I think it's time to Davison to move on. He's become a liability.
Ehhh, given the roster next year. I'd take him back. Like, I'd take a few other seniors ahead of him, but given the realities, I'd take him.
He does several things well and UW is already gonna be adding one grad transfer guard. Might as well keep Brad around. If one of the young guys is better, they'll play. If they're not better, well, it's better to have a better player out there.
The Bowman thing kinda threw a wrench into any succession plan.
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Man, I remember watching those Iowa teams with Marble, Armstrong and Horton. That was a fun team.
They were, Dr. Tom Davis did wonders with George Raveling's recruits. If it wasn't for a blown 22pt halftime lead against UNLV they could have won the NC.
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I can't remember why he left Iowa.
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I can't remember why he left Iowa.
Pushed out. Team had gone to only two tournaments in five years, winning a game in each. From a newspaper story from the time: "The program had recorded four straight 20-win seasons, and recent recruiting classes were solid. But fan apathy had taken root, several high-profile in-state recruits went to other schools and his most recent team was ousted in the first round of the 1998 National Invitation Tournament."
They let him coach one more year for some reason and his last team made the Sweet 16. Iowa has yet to return to the second weekend and missed the tournament 13 of the next 20 years.
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Pushed out. Team had gone to only two tournaments in five years, winning a game in each. From a newspaper story from the time: "The program had recorded four straight 20-win seasons, and recent recruiting classes were solid. But fan apathy had taken root, several high-profile in-state recruits went to other schools and his most recent team was ousted in the first round of the 1998 National Invitation Tournament."
They let him coach one more year for some reason and his last team made the Sweet 16. Iowa has yet to return to the second weekend and missed the tournament 13 of the next 20 years.
This somes it up perfectly. The fans were bored of getting to the 2nd round consistantly with an occasional 2nd weekend. Steve Alford was supposed to take them to the next level but instead caused more controversy and even lost in the 1st round to a 15 seed. Davis was not a good recruiter for anyone outside of Iowa but he was always respectful and had class (something Alford had never learned). If Iowa doesn't make it to the 2nd weekend this year, you can probably guess McCaffery's seat will get warm.
The reason he was there one more year was due to his contract. Instead of letting him go, they just didn't renew it. That team lacked talent but made up for it with motivation. They gave eventual champ UCONN all they could handle.
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I remember that UConn game, it was fantastic
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Two Iowa NCAA Tournament moments stick out to me. The first one was years ago in the early 90s during Duke’s glory years. Duke and Iowa were playing in the second round of the NCAA’s. Duke had a fast break that culminated in Laettner dunking on some dude from Iowa, but they called a charge. Even though they called a charge Laettner and one his teammates (Brian Hill, maybe) high fived and celebrated the dunk while the Iowa kid picked himself up off the floor. It still felt like a momentum changing play for Duke even though they got called for a foul and the basket didn’t count. Duke went on to roll them.
In 2006, WVU and Iowa were placed in the same region and were playing in Detroit. Iowa was a 3 seed and WVU the 6 seed. Iowa played Northwestern St in the early game and, figuring Iowa was the next likely opponent, I was watching with a little extra interest. Iowa was up 2 with just a few seconds left and NW St had the ball. The possession was going nowhere and some kid just threw up a fall away prayer from the deep corner and it was cash. My buddy and I (who were both blowing off work) started cheering and clinked beer bottles at WVU’s good luck at avoiding a 3 seed.
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In 2006, WVU and Iowa were placed in the same region and were playing in Detroit. Iowa was a 3 seed and WVU the 6 seed. Iowa played Northwestern St in the early game and, figuring Iowa was the next likely opponent, I was watching with a little extra interest. Iowa was up 2 with just a few seconds left and NW St had the ball. The possession was going nowhere and some kid just threw up a fall away prayer from the deep corner and it was cash. My buddy and I (who were both blowing off work) started cheering and clinked beer bottles at WVU’s good luck at avoiding a 3 seed.
I remember it being a deal because IIRC Kansas was the marquee name in Detroit that year, and they got upset in the first round too. So your two biggest draws both got upset before the weekend.
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I remember Iowa knocked out a really good Tubbs OU team
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We have a game going on in East Lansing...
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Donnie Marshall is quite terrible at his job
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Illinois can't score and can't get stops. Terrible performance.
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If MSU is ever +15 in FTs ON THE ROAD, and whining to the officials, I promise you, I will be embarrassed
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Aw nuts Sparty is good again
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We might have an NIT run in us
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That was weird.
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Aw nuts Sparty is good again
I suspected this might happen
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Gonna be an interesting couple of weeks for seeding 2-6. I suspect UW will win maybe one more game. Illinois, @Iowa and @Purdue.
They might not even win one.
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I suspected this might happen
Aaron Henry I believe has played 79 minutes over the past two games. I don't know if that's sustainable with this every other day makeup schedule
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Gonna be an interesting couple of weeks for seeding 2-6. I suspect UW will win maybe one more game. Illinois, @Iowa and @Purdue.
They might not even win one.
Sagarin predictor ratings:
- Home Court Advantage: 2.01
- Wisconsin: 87.94
- Illinois: 90.85
- Iowa: 91.94
- Purdue: 86.83
Sagarin's predictor is simple: add HCA to the home team's rating, and then higher rating wins.
- vIllinois: Illinois even with Wisconsin having HCA is 0.9 higher... Very close.
- @Iowa: With Iowa having the HCA and higher rating, this one should be less close. Iowa is now 6.01 higher.
- @Purdue: Wisconsin has the higher rating but since the margin is smaller than HCA, Purdue is 0.9 higher... Also very close.
Sagarin's method can also turn rating differences into a Win%. I don't have his equation, but looking at his site there's a game scheduled with a 0.86 difference in rating for a win percentage of 53% to the favorite. When you get up to a rating difference of 6.04, it's a Win% of 71% to the favorite.
Wouldn't be surprised to see them win anywhere between 0 and 2 games inclusive out of that stretch. Both the Illinois and Purdue games project to be toss-ups, so a good or bad bounce this way or that could mean two wins or zero wins.
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Aaron Henry I believe has played 79 minutes over the past two games. I don't know if that's sustainable with this every other day makeup schedule
Should probably rest him tomorrow
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Sagarin predictor ratings:
- Home Court Advantage: 2.01
- Wisconsin: 87.94
- Illinois: 90.85
- Iowa: 91.94
- Purdue: 86.83
Sagarin's predictor is simple: add HCA to the home team's rating, and then higher rating wins.
- vIllinois: Illinois even with Wisconsin having HCA is 0.9 higher... Very close.
- @Iowa: With Iowa having the HCA and higher rating, this one should be less close. Iowa is now 6.01 higher.
- @Purdue: Wisconsin has the higher rating but since the margin is smaller than HCA, Purdue is 0.9 higher... Also very close.
Sagarin's method can also turn rating differences into a Win%. I don't have his equation, but looking at his site there's a game scheduled with a 0.86 difference in rating for a win percentage of 53% to the favorite. When you get up to a rating difference of 6.04, it's a Win% of 71% to the favorite.
Wouldn't be surprised to see them win anywhere between 0 and 2 games inclusive out of that stretch. Both the Illinois and Purdue games project to be toss-ups, so a good or bad bounce this way or that could mean two wins or zero wins.
The way UW has played since January, I expect bad bounces/inconsistent play. Would love to be wrong.
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This kid from Stewartville is A) heading to Michigan next fall on a basketball scholarship, and B) putting in a strong bid to replace Sir Christopher Lee as The Most Interesting Man In The World.
https://www.kare11.com/article/sports/stewartvilles-will-tschetter-stands-out-on-and-off-the-court/89-bf88d582-4be7-4426-a51b-85f3eacee78e?fbclid=IwAR2ApEpgnMaaBAihZE5RU9cNy341pU7LuGISsAKqY2f4yNkJto1TWX-axjM
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Was listening to a podcast that noted that Duane Washington took over 20 unofficial visits to MSU over his sophomore and junior year, and MSU offered...Foster Loyer. :91:
In fairness, Loyer was offered earlier, so it was probably Gabe Brown who got that scholarship, but still.
Between that, and deciding to take Marcus Bingham over Trevion Williams in the same class, we are where we are
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Hearing that Illinois Ayo out with a broken nose for at least two games. Maybe more (possibly up till BTT).
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I fondly remember the motley crew Huggy recruited to Cincinnati, maybe exemplified by Art Long, who was charged with punching a police horse.
Best one by far was Donald Little. He tied his roommate up to a lawn chair and beat him and burned him. Real hard nose player.
(https://mediaassets.wcpo.com/photo/2015/03/26/Bob_Huggins_Donald_Little_1427366157921_15607401_ver1.0_640_480.jpg)
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Hearing that Illinois Ayo out with a broken nose for at least two games. Maybe more (possibly up till BTT).
And miss what will likely be his last game at home :'(
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The race for the last #1 seed:
In my opinion, barring some pretty big surprises the #1 seeds will be Baylor, Gonzaga, Michigan and then one of Ohio State, Iowa, or Illinois.
Espn's Bracketology currently has:
- Gonzaga
- Baylor
- Michigan
- Ohio State
And they have Iowa as the #2 seed in Gonzaga's region while Illinois is the #2 seed in Baylor's region. Their other two #2 seeds are Alabama and Villanova.
NCAA NET Rankings:
- 22-0 Gonzaga, 7-0 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 7-0 Q4
- 18-0 Baylor, 6-0 Q1, 1-0 Q2, 5-0 Q3, 6-0 Q4
- 16-1 Michigan, 6-1 Q1, 4-0 Q2, 4-0 Q3, 2-0 Q4
- 16-6 Illinois, 7-5 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 2-0 Q4
- 17-6 Iowa, 6-5 Q1, 5-1 Q2, 1-0 Q3, 5-0 Q4
- 17-3 Houston, 2-1 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 9-1 Q3, 2-0 Q4
- 18-5 Ohio State, 9-4 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 3-0 Q4
- 15-3 Villanova, 2-1 Q1, 4-2 Q2, 8-0 Q3, 1-0 Q4
- 18-6 Alabama, 6-4 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 5-1 Q3, 1-0 Q4
ESPN's BPI rankings:
- Gonzaga
- Baylor
- Iowa
- Houston
- Michigan
- Villanova
- Illinois
- Ohio State
KenPom rankings:
- Gonzaga
- Baylor
- Michigan
- Iowa
- Houston
- Illinois
- Ohio State
First I'll discuss the other teams theoretically in the mix:
- Alabama is a #2 seed in ESPN's bracketology, #9 in NET, #14 in BPI, and #10 in KenPom.
- Villanova is a #2 seed in ESPN's bracketology, #8 in NET, #6 in BPI, and #8 in KenPom.
- Houston is #3 seed in ESPN's bracketology, #6 in NET, #4 in BPI, and #5 in KenPom.
One of those three could potentially end up ahead of the highest out of tOSU/IL/IA, but I think they'd probably need to win out and have tOSU/IL/IA cannibalize each other and/or all take upset losses. None of them will have an opportunity to improve their standing as much as the three B1G teams. Their remaining schedules and the BTT will provide LOTS of opportunities for quality wins and some of those will be against each other where one of the two has to win.
I admit that in the H2H games one of the two has to lose as well, but we are talking about six teams for one spot so the one losing doesn't help nearly as much as the other one winning hurts.
Remaining schedules for the three B1G teams, Ohio State:
- at MSU
- vs Iowa
- vs Illinois
- B1G Tournament
Illinois:
- vs Nebraska
- @ Wisconsin
- @ Michigan
- @ Ohio State
- B1G Tournament
Iowa:
- @ Michigan
- @ Ohio State
- vs Nebraska
- vs Wisconsin
- B1G Tournament
IMHO, if Ohio State beats Iowa and Illinois they are a near-lock for the last #1 seed. That would complete season sweeps of both the Hawkeyes and the Illini which would make it difficult for the committee to put either of them ahead of the Buckeyes and I do not think that any other team has sufficient remaining opportunities to catch up and pass tOSU with those two wins.
If the Buckeyes lose one or both of those games that hurts the Buckeyes but helps the Illini and/or Hawkeyes so from the perspective of Bama/Villanova/Houston that is pretty much a wash.
Iowa and Illinois both have great opportunities with their games at Michigan. At this point that is probably a win/win situation for the Illini and Hawkeyes because they aren't going to drop much (if at all) for losing in Crisler Arena and if they happen to win it will be the best win of the year so far by any team.
Based on all of this, I feel fairly confident at this point that the B1G will get two #1 seeds this year.
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Michigan put a whooping on Iowa
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Michigan put a whooping on Iowa
Makes Ohio State's close loss look great!
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Always love to see the refs go to replay to blow a call
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Always love to see the refs go to replay to blow a call
Gentlemen's game, you don't allow uncalled slop
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This is the MSU offense We have seen all year. Both inept, and giving up easy transition points the other way
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Props to Justin Ahrens for being completely unable to make a layup
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HUmmel is really overselling this. The teams are engaged, and the game is close, but I'm seeing stagnant offense more than great defense. There are a couple of great individual efforts bailing out some mediocre half court sets.
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Joey Hauser not redeeming himself among the faithful after Liddell hit like 8 FTs in a row over the past 2 minutes
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Wrong time for the Bucks to have "Holtman's annual month long swoon"
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Wrong time for the Bucks to have "Holtman's annual month long swoon"
Yes, that time was when they played my team, not after.
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Battle for the double-bye is heating up...
3. Ohio State: 12-6 - games remaining -- vIA, vIL
4. Iowa: 11-6 - games remaining -- @OSU, vUNL, vWI
5. Purdue: 11-6 - games remaining -- vWI, vIU
6. Wisconsin: 10-7 - games remaning -- vIL, @PU, @IA
Any of OSU, Iowa, or Purdue winning out from here would guarantee top 4, as OSU/Iowa play each other so one of the two will finish with at least 7 losses.
Purdue has the easiest remaining schedule, with both games at home. But Wisconsin is always a tough out, and this game may be IU's spoiler opportunity if the lose to UM and MSU in their next two. At that point they're probably in "need to win BTT" mode for the tourney, so if they are in trouble, they may bring everything for their rival. What may hurt Purdue, however, is only having 19 games. If there is no clear H2H advantage in a multi-team tie, I think it might go to win%, which with a constant number of losses and one less game obviously hurts the Boilers.
I'd say OSU has the next easiest schedule, which given that they're facing the current #2 and #4 teams in the league, is still daunting. But at least they have both at home, and only two remaining games. Beating IA and losing to IL still gives them a pretty solid shot at the double-bye, as Iowa could lose two more and Wisconsin finishing undefeated from here on out is not the most likely scenario IMHO. They would have H2H over both IA and WI. Losing to Iowa and beating IL is less solid, as that takes away the H2H tiebreaker over IA, and if both IA and PU win out, OSU would automatically drop to 5th.
3rd easiest is Iowa, IMHO. They're on the road at OSU, but HCA isn't as strong this year as most year, UNL should be an easy win, and then they face WI at home. If they get past OSU that gives them a lot more margin for error, as they have H2H over Purdue as well in the team's only meeting if it comes down to a tie between just the two. Obviously losing to OSU would hurt them much more, as they would then be 0-2 against OSU and on the outside looking in if both OSU and PU win out.
Wisconsin has the worst current record of the three, the hardest remaining schedule, and three games remaining. I'm just going to assume they have to win all three to even have a shot, and even then it would likely come down to tiebreakers. But... That would deal both Purdue and Iowa a loss, so the worst case if WI wins out is T-4th. Then it's just a matter of how those tiebreakers play out.
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Purdue radio legend Larry Clisby died today at the age of 74 after battling cancer.
Dakich just got choked up talking about it on the Illinois/Wisconsin broadcast.
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The state of Indiana, between Peyton Manning and Isaac Haas, is responsible for the two biggest overreaching rule changes in sports history.
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The state of Indiana, between Peyton Manning and Isaac Haas, is responsible for the two biggest overreaching rule changes in sports history.
Explain?
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Explain?
The Colts whined until the NFL decided to enforce Illegal Contact, and the hook and hold is a result of the Isaac Haas elbow injury. Two totally unnecessary rules
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I like how they act like it's amazing D'Mitric Trice was shockingly underrecruited based on his name, as though Travis Trice was some legend. His older brother was also lightly recruited. Dayton was his only D1 offer until MSU offered late after they lost out on another recruit (maybe Tracy Abrams?), and only then because they had seen him playing on Brenden Dawson's AAU team. And he was a serviceable PG, who blew up in the last month of his senior year.
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Wow, what an ending!
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Wow, what did Trice have? Like 19 points in about 2 minutes?
Glad to get a win there without Ayo.
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UW is NOT a tourney team. Something is wrong. Very wrong.
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UW is NOT a tourney team. Something is wrong. Very wrong.
I mean, they’re going to go to the tournament. This season has been so odd because four or three veterans who you expected to at least be decent Big Ten players have been some variation of garbage for two months now.
feels like the surprisingly bad shooting has compounded into pressing. When you were not consistently hitting makeable open shots, everything else kind of goes to hell
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UW is NOT a tourney team. Something is wrong. Very wrong.
What's wrong is everyone is really good.
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What's wrong is everyone is really good.
So, this is a part of it, but just a part. Everyone is very good, but UW is also good enough to not go 0-7 against the top 4. Maybe that number should b 1-6 or 2-5, but they should be good enough to pull one of those out.
They've been able to close in at points 2-3 of those seven games. Today's they rallied after just a garbage first 35 or so minutes. Mix in getting incinerated for a half against Maryland and a kinda of wonky loss to Penn State, they possess the ability to be in a better station than thy are.
If nothing else, they have five scholarship seniors and four are not playing up to snuff. Here's where they are:
Brad Davison - He's a low-ceiling guy, but he's mostly been an efficent off-guard. This year, he's gone to hell in terms of 2-point shooting and it's dragged him down. A lot of pressing, too much trying to draw contact, plus some uncalled contact that links to his style of foul-drawing wearing thin. It's been not ideal.
Nate Reuvers - Third-team all-conference last year, he was expected to pair with Micha Potter for 40 minuets of decent to good to sometimes very good Big Ten center. He's been solid enough on defense, the reason he was expected to play more, but his offense has been a mess. He's shooting 46 percent from 2, 26.9 from 3, few free throws. He was supposed to be a post anchor for much of games.
Potter - He's been good statistically, but he's seemed to move away from effective/assertive post play of late. He's also at 32.8 on 3s in conference play, which is bad because he takes mostly very open ones and can hit them. His defense was bad early last year, and might be worse this year. If he was solid, he could stay on the floor most of the game.
Aleem Ford: I always assumed he’d be inconsistent, but after a really nice finish last year, he’s just been unimpressive. His shooting has been highly spotty. I thought he could go either way, but he’s gone the wrong one, which hurt when his backup, future starter Tyler Wahl, scuffles.
So UW is playing worse than its ability in a tougher conference. Like all manner of Wisconsin teams have issues, but this one has been a bit more ragged in some key areas.
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So, this is a part of it, but just a part. Everyone is very good, but UW is also good enough to not go 0-7 against the top 4. Maybe that number should b 1-6 or 2-5, but they should be good enough to pull one of those out.
They've been able to close in at points 2-3 of those seven games. Today's they rallied after just a garbage first 35 or so minutes. Mix in getting incinerated for a half against Maryland and a kinda of wonky loss to Penn State, they possess the ability to be in a better station than thy are.
If nothing else, they have five scholarship seniors and four are not playing up to snuff. Here's where they are:
Brad Davison - He's a low-ceiling guy, but he's mostly been an efficent off-guard. This year, he's gone to hell in terms of 2-point shooting and it's dragged him down. A lot of pressing, too much trying to draw contact, plus some uncalled contact that links to his style of foul-drawing wearing thin. It's been not ideal.
Nate Reuvers - Third-team all-conference last year, he was expected to pair with Micha Potter for 40 minuets of decent to good to sometimes very good Big Ten center. He's been solid enough on defense, the reason he was expected to play more, but his offense has been a mess. He's shooting 46 percent from 2, 26.9 from 3, few free throws. He was supposed to be a post anchor for much of games.
Potter - He's been good statistically, but he's seemed to move away from effective/assertive post play of late. He's also at 32.8 on 3s in conference play, which is bad because he takes mostly very open ones and can hit them. His defense was bad early last year, and might be worse this year. If he was solid, he could stay on the floor most of the game.
Aleem Ford: I always assumed he’d be inconsistent, but after a really nice finish last year, he’s just been unimpressive. His shooting has been highly spotty. I thought he could go either way, but he’s gone the wrong one, which hurt when his backup, future starter Tyler Wahl, scuffles.
So UW is playing worse than its ability in a tougher conference. Like all manner of Wisconsin teams have issues, but this one has been a bit more ragged in some key areas.
I mean, yes, they have been having some struggles. But compared to last year, Wisconsin is currently 12th on KenPom at +23.10, verses last year at 22 with a +18.95. Last year they had losses to Richmond and New Mexico, and were blown out by Minnesota, Purdue, and NC State. They finished on a great winning streak, but a team can't be defined by how good they are during a winning streak.
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Minnesota may just have fallen into "Need to win BTT" territory.
Their resume is strange with great wins and bad losses.
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I mean, yes, they have been having some struggles. But compared to last year, Wisconsin is currently 12th on KenPom at +23.10, verses last year at 22 with a +18.95. Last year they had losses to Richmond and New Mexico, and were blown out by Minnesota, Purdue, and NC State. They finished on a great winning streak, but a team can't be defined by how good they are during a winning streak.
The bolded is true, and the balance of the year is better. And maybe it's just a case of trading non-conference losses for conference wins. Still, watching this team, there's just an element of a lot of these guys being less effective.
Three of the seniors mentioned are posting worse season-long efficiencies than last year. One is posting his worst since he was forced into the lineup as a freshman who should've redshirted. Another is posting a career worst efficiency. I don't think they're world beaters, but this is a dip. (The last senior is mostly fine on offense, even if I think he has more to offer from 3. He's just not adapted on defense nearly as well as expected)
In any case, the ranking part kinda points to where we are. UW is 12th, 2.6 points behind that top 4. They're just a hair ahead of Purdue, three ahead of Rutgers and 4.5 or more ahead of the bottom seven. They're going to need an upset to avoid 10-10 in the league. Even if we argue they're schedule is better (for now it ranks worse), they're having trouble on the margins.
I'll put it this way. I've seen some not-great UW teams be very competitive with some really good teams in conference. I think this UW team has played a certain level of well, but just from watching, a batch of players are simply underperforming what they're capable of. If they were performing better, they might well have the same record, but they'd be more competitive than they've been with that top echelon.
(Today was a good example, against a very good but not unreal defense missing a top player, they scored on two of their first 16 possessions at home. Illinois is good, but it ain't that good. The OSU game is another good example. OSU is not very good on defense. Wisconsin scored at a worse rate than 15 of OSU's conference opponents. It's just been odd and ragged)
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Minnesota may just have fallen into "Need to win BTT" territory.
Their resume is strange with great wins and bad losses.
They have three top-7 KenPom wins, plus No. 14 Purdue and went 1-2 vs Neb/NW.
Rick has earned his firing.
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Maybe this is starting to show that Gard<Ryan?
When you have the culture Bo Ryan built, it takes a while for it to fall apart if the new guy can't sustain.
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Maybe this is starting to show that Gard<Ryan?
When you have the culture Bo Ryan built, it takes a while for it to fall apart if the new guy can't sustain.
That is indeed a distinct possibility.
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Maybe this is starting to show that Gard<Ryan?
When you have the culture Bo Ryan built, it takes a while for it to fall apart if the new guy can't sustain.
Oh. I don't know that was ever really a question. Bo won 73 percent of his games, finished top-4 in the league every year. There were some things his teams were absurd at every single year. Bo is very likely gonna make the Hall of Fame. Those streaks were gonna be hard to maintain, no matter what. If Gard is even 80 percent the coach Bo was, he should be in Madison for at least another decade.
And in truth, there were plenty of rough days in the Ryan era. Plenty of scoring droughts, plenty of bad shots. Some players who didn't develop, some trying seasons. I remember chats in college if the Badgers were destined to just always leave us wanting in March, a team that couldn't overachieve when it counted. Bo's first really high-lever team lost to a 7 seed. His second to an 11 seed it couldn't bully. I remember when I felt relief to compete in a loss to a higher seed in the tournament
UW is in the midst of a disappointing year, and even in that, the team has done some things very well. Next year will be a different beast, and the year after.
There's a possibility this is the start of the end, but I'll play wait and see. Something isn't going well, but we're a long way from it falling apart, at least for now. If the bad times are winning a Big Ten title (by overachieving), starting top-10 and still having a top-20 KenPom team, ehhh, we got a long way to fall. And the secret is, UW in its natural state ain't good. So you ride with someone who seems pretty good until the engine falls out.
(I always remember the downward trend of the football program. Two years of declining wins with a new coach. Much disappointment. The last team hated each other and almost lost to an FCS team. They won 40 games the next four years, two legit conference titles and a fluky third. This year's problems are this year's. And when you pile up enough this years that don't work out, you change. The prediction and long-terms guessing, I've watched too much to think on it. Shoot, I watched Matt Painter. I watched OSU win 25 games with a roster I was mostly told was going to get Matta fired had he been allowed to coach it)
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I mean, they’re going to go to the tournament. This season has been so odd because four or three veterans who you expected to at least be decent Big Ten players have been some variation of garbage for two months now.
feels like the surprisingly bad shooting has compounded into pressing. When you were not consistently hitting makeable open shots, everything else kind of goes to hell
They will not another game.
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They will not another game.
Though missing a word, what you suppose is quite possible.
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It's hard to type that word right now.
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Maryland on pace to go 15-20 from 3 at the under 4.
Not a bad recipe
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No legs. Playing 7 games in 2 weeks is ridiculous. This is MSU's third game since Maryland's last one.
My guess is the Big Ten assumed MSU was done, but knew they got good ratings, so they might as well run them into the ground, while Michigan coasted in at a cool 17
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No legs. Playing 7 games in 2 weeks is ridiculous. This is MSU's third game since Maryland's last one.
My guess is the Big Ten assumed MSU was done, but knew they got good ratings, so they might as well run them into the ground, while Michigan coasted in at a cool 17
Which, between this and the football rules changes, get your money I guess, but don't pretend like the purpose of the conference is anythign other than to suck from the UM/OSU teet
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Well, the day isn't a total loss. Sounds like dan dakich may have finally gotten fired
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Well, the day isn't a total loss. Sounds like dan dakich may have finally gotten fired
???
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Wrong time for the Bucks to have "Holtman's annual month long swoon"
I was hoping that Michigan was just that good and that Michigan State was just that improved or desperate or whatever.
With Iowa no whipping Ohio State in Columbus this is starting to look like Holtman's annual month long swoon.
At this point I do not expect the Buckeyes to win another game this year. This game already feels over. I expect the Buckeyes to lose at home to Illinois then go one and done in both tournaments unless they are seeded highly enough in the NCAA that it isn't possible to lose the opener in which case I expect 1-4 from here (in all, finishing either with six straight losses or 1-6 in their last seven.
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#1 seed my ass. This Buckeye team is more 3 more losses from from ending their season.
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B1G is rough guys. Bucks hit some cold shooting and that ain't going to cut it.
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???
He's off Twitter after making some sexist comments on his radio show on Friday. Apparently they stemmed from him searching his name, yet again, on Twitter. He is filth, and I'm glad that him making money off his hot takes resulted in him getting fired for them
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He's off Twitter after making some sexist comments on his radio show on Friday. Apparently they stemmed from him searching his name, yet again, on Twitter. He is filth, and I'm glad that him making money off his hot takes resulted in him getting fired for them
(https://i.imgur.com/7vM3emR.jpg)
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Fairly confident of the top five seeds:
- Michigan
- Illinois
- Iowa
- Purdue
- Ohio State
Ohio State will lose on Thursday of the BTT to the 12/13 winner, count on it.
That will give the #4 seed (probably Purdue because they lose a tie with Iowa) a relatively easy BTT opener.
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Fairly confident of the top five seeds:
- Michigan
- Illinois
- Iowa
- Purdue
- Ohio State
Ohio State will lose on Thursday of the BTT to the 12/13 winner, count on it.
That will give the #4 seed (probably Purdue because they lose a tie with Iowa) a relatively easy BTT opener.
And TTUN can laugh all the way to the title game knowing they were the team to break the Buckeyes.
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(https://i.imgur.com/7vM3emR.jpg)
I liked your theory that he was talking about Ann Arbor. Lmao
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Nebraska junior guard Teddy Allen announced via a release on Monday morning that he has left the Nebraska basketball program effective immediately.
“I would like to thank Coach Hoiberg and his coaching staff for allowing me to come back to Nebraska and have the opportunity to play basketball in the best conference in the country” Allen said in the release. “I appreciate the support I’ve received from everyone in the program. I am thankful for the love I have received from my teammates and the relationships we have built over the last year. I also want to give a special thank you to the Husker fans for their encouragement and support.
“After a lot of thought over the last few days, I have made the decision to focus on getting fully healthy in preparation for the next step in my basketball journey. I will continue to stay at Nebraska for the spring semester and work toward graduation. I am looking forward to what the future holds, as I explore my options.”
Allen scored 41 points less than a week ago against Penn State, falling one point short of setting the program record for scoring in a single game. Allen appeared in 22 games for Nebraska this season, totaling eight, 20-point games and averaging 16.5 points and 4.7 rebounds per game.
Allen aggravated a wrist injury in the game against Penn State, and followed up the game against the Nittany Lions with a quiet five-point effort in a loss to Illinois. Allen played just 10 minutes and went scoreless in Nebraska's win over Minnesota on Saturday in Lincoln. After that game, Nebraska head coach Fred Hoiberg said he liked the group he had on the floor, which didn't include Allen.
“That other group that was out there was giving us great minutes and playing with a great rhythm,” Hoiberg said of Allen’s decreased minutes. “It wasn’t anything more than that.”
The departure is the latest move for Allen, who starred for Boys Town in Omaha and signed with West Virginia out of high school. Allen left West Virginia and transferred to Wichita State, but he never appeared in a game for the Shockers, as he was dismissed from the team and ended up at Western Nebraska CC last season, where he averaged more than 31 points per game to lead the nation.
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B1G Regular season Championship and BTT seeds in detail:
The B1G Regular season Championship is now mathematically down to just two teams and practically down to just Michigan. The mathematical contenders:
- 13-1 Michigan, 3 remaining games (vsIL on Tuesday, vsMSU on Thursday, @MSU on Sunday).
- 14-4 Illinois, 2 remaining games (@M on Tuesday, @tOSU on Saturday).
Any Michigan win OR Illinois loss mathematically clinches it for Michigan. Ie, the ONLY way Illinois can get the title is if they win out AND Michigan loses out. Obviously if Michigan beats Illinois on Tuesday in Ann Arbor it is over.
BTT seeds:
- Almost certainly Michigan. Illinois only if they win out AND Michigan loses out.
- Illinois unless they get the #1. Even if Illinois loses out they will finish 14-6 which would be no worse than tied with Iowa. The Illini are 1-0 against the Hawkeyes so they win that tie and can do no worse than the #2 seed.
After that it gets a lot more complicated so I'll go by team in order of current record:
- 12-6 Iowa (vs UNL, vs UW) 14-6, 13-7 or 12-8: The Hawkeyes
- 11-6 Purdue (vs UW, vs IU) 13-6, 12-7, or 11-8:
- 12-7 Ohio State (vs IL) 13-7 or 12-8:
- 10-8 Wisconsin (@PU, @IA) 12-8, 11-9, or 10-10:
- 9-9 Maryland (@NU, vs PSU) 11-9, 10-10, or 9-11:
- 9-9 Rutgers (@ UNL, @ MN) 11-9, 10-10, or 9-11:
- 7-10 Michigan State (vs IU, @ M, vs M) 10-10, 9-11, 8-12, or 7-13:
- 7-10 Indiana (@ MSU, @ PU) 9-10, 8-11, or 7-12:
- 6-12 Minnesota (@ PSU, vs RU) 8-12, 7-13, or 6-14:
- 5-12 Penn State (vs MN, @ UMD) 7-12, 6-13, or 5-14: Probably #12. #11 only if they win out and MN loses out. #13 only if they lose out and NU wins out.
- 4-13 Northwestern (vs UMD, vs UNL) 6-13, 5-14, or 4-15: Probably #13. Could be overtaken by UNL if they lose out or overtake PSU but only if they win out and PSU loses out because NU would lose a tie with PSU.
- 2-14 Nebraska (vs RU, @ IA, @ NU) 5-14, 4-15, 3-16, or 2-17: They will be the #14 seed unless they beat Northwestern and win at least one other game plus one additional game for any win that NU has.
The really messy ones are #3-10.
Iowa:
- 14-6: #3 seed either as a 3/4 tie loser with IL or alone.
- 13-7: #3 seed if tOSU loses to IL and PU loses at least once. #4 seed if tOSU or PU win out. #5 seed if tOSU and PU both win out.
- 12-8: #4 seed if PU loses out, #5 seed otherwise.
Purdue:
- 13-6: #3 seed if Iowa loses a game, #4 seed if not.
- 12-7: #3 if Iowa and tOSU lose out. #4 seed if IA or tOSU lose out. #5 if neither tOSU nor IA loses out.
- 11-8: #5 if Wisconsin loses at least once, #6 if Wisconsin wins out.
Ohio State:
- 13-7: #3 if Iowa and PU each lose at least once. #4 if either IA or PU loses at least once. #5 if IA and PU both win out.
- 12-8: #3 if IA and PU both lose out. #4 if either IA or PU loses out. #5 if neither IA nor PU lose out.
Wisconsin:
- 12-8: #5 if PU loses out, #6 if PU wins at least one.
- 11-9: #6 if UMD loses at least one game, #7 if UMD wins out.
- 10-10: #6 if UMD loses out and RU loses at least once and MSU loses at least once. #7 if one of those things doesn't happen. #8 if two of those things don't happen. #9 if none of those things happen.
I tried to do the rest but it gets inordinately complicated.
If the BTT started now:
Wednesday:
- #11 Minnesota vs #14 Nebraska
- #12 Penn State vs #13 Northwestern
Thursday:
- #5 Ohio State vs PSU/NU
- #6 Wisconsin vs MN/UNL
- #7 Rutgers vs #10 Indiana (Rutgers wins 7/8 tie with UMD based on record against PU)
- #8 Maryland vs #9 Michigan State (MSU wins 9/10 tie with IU based on H2H)
Friday:
- #1 Michigan vs UMD/MSU
- #2 Illinois vs RU/IU
- #3 Iowa vs UW/MN/UNL
- #4 Purdue vs tOSU/PSU/NU
Saturday:
- M/UMD/MSU vs PU/tOSU/PSU/NU
- IL/RU/IU vs IA/UW/MN/UNL
Sunday:
- M/UMD/MSU/PU/tOSU/PSU/NU vs IL/RU/IU/IA/UW/MN/UNL
My guesses in bold.
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The really messy ones are #3-10.
Iowa:
- 14-6: #3 seed either as a 3/4 tie loser with IL or alone.
- 13-7: #3 seed if tOSU loses to IL and PU loses at least once. #4 seed if tOSU or PU win out. #5 seed if tOSU and PU both win out.
- 12-8: #4 seed if PU loses out, #5 seed otherwise.
Purdue:
- 13-6: #3 seed if Iowa loses a game, #4 seed if not.
- 12-7: #3 if Iowa and tOSU lose out. #4 seed if IA or tOSU lose out. #5 if neither tOSU nor IA loses out.
- 11-8: #5 if Wisconsin loses at least once, #6 if Wisconsin wins out.
Ohio State:
- 13-7: #3 if Iowa and PU each lose at least once. #4 if either IA or PU loses at least once. #5 if IA and PU both win out.
- 12-8: #3 if IA and PU both lose out. #4 if either IA or PU loses out. #5 if neither IA nor PU lose out.
If Iowa, Purdue, and OSU all finish with 7 losses, I believe there's no H2H tiebreaker at all, and Purdue drops to #5 due to win percentage because they have one less game.
However, if the bolded scenario happens, wouldn't Purdue and Ohio State have H2H as primary tiebreaker, and Purdue is 2-0 against OSU?
I would think that if Purdue and OSU are the only teams matched with 7 losses, H2H would take precedence over win%, and thus Purdue would get the 4.
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If Iowa, Purdue, and OSU all finish with 7 losses, I believe there's no H2H tiebreaker at all, and Purdue drops to #5 due to win percentage because they have one less game.
However, if the bolded scenario happens, wouldn't Purdue and Ohio State have H2H as primary tiebreaker, and Purdue is 2-0 against OSU?
I would think that if Purdue and OSU are the only teams matched with 7 losses, H2H would take precedence over win%, and thus Purdue would get the 4.
As I understand it, it is based on win percentage. Thus, Purdue will NOT have any tie with any team because they are going to end up with 19 games and no other team that will end up with 19 games can tie them.
One at a time (I think I had a mistake above but fixed it between when I posted originally and when you posted):
Iowa, Purdue, and OSU all finish with 7 losses:
- 13-7 Ohio State (wins tie with Iowa based on record against IL)
- 13-7 Iowa
- 12-7 Purdue (not tied, lower winning percentage).
Bolded scenario:
- 14-6 Iowa: #3 seed.
- 13-7 Ohio State: #4 seed, no tiebreakers because no tie, tOSU's winning percentage is higher.
- 12-7 Purdue: #5 seed.
AFAIK, the rules are based solely on winning percentage and the tiebreakers are ONLY activated if two teams finish with the same winning percentage. Thus tiebreakers are irrelevant for Purdue because they can't tie any other team. They will be 1/2 game ahead of other teams with the same number of wins and 1/2 game behind other teams with the same number of losses.
Example, Iowa and Purdue both go 1-1, Ohio State loses:
- 13-7 Iowa .650
- 12-7 Purdue .632
- 12-8 Ohio State .600
There are no ties so it is irrelevant whether Purdue would win or lose a tie with either Iowa or Ohio State.
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Ahh, I think you're right. I just read that the 2021 seeding is based on the 2020 rules and tiebreakers.
And therefore a team that is 13-6 is not tied with a team that is 14-6. They'd be 0.5 games back.
This is of course ridiculous, because all the 2020 tiebreaking procedures were based on the idea of every team playing a full schedule, which they should have anticipated may not occur going into the 2020-21 season...
But it is what it is... I guess all Purdue needs to do is just keep winning. 13-6 beats 13-7.
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Ahh, I think you're right. I just read that the 2021 seeding is based on the 2020 rules and tiebreakers.
And therefore a team that is 13-6 is not tied with a team that is 14-6. They'd be 0.5 games back.
This is of course ridiculous, because all the 2020 tiebreaking procedures were based on the idea of every team playing a full schedule, which they should have anticipated may not occur going into the 2020-21 season...
But it is what it is... I guess all Purdue needs to do is just keep winning. 13-6 beats 13-7.
Barring something unexpected, any team that Purdue could tie in either the win or loss column will have 20 games as opposed to Purdue's 19 so it is pretty simple:
- If Purdue is tied in the win column they win (because less losses)
- If Purdue is tied in the loss column they lose (because less wins)
Purdue controls their own destiny for a top-4 seed because nobody behind can catch them. I would not even be too worried with a loss because Ohio State is in full-on Holtman-annual-monthlong-swoon mode and will lose to Illinois so even if Purdue splits their last two (vsUW, vsIU) they'll still get the #4 seed at 12-7 because Ohio State will finish 12-8. Even if Ohio State breaks out of the funk (they will not, it takes a month based on past seasons' experience) that still would simply mean that Purdue would get the #5 seed and play the #12/13 winner (probably PSU) on Thursday then beat Ohio State on Friday. Purdue might actually be better off with the #5 seed and an extra win (PSU) before beating Ohio State to advance to a semi-final match-up with Michigan.
The semi-final with Michigan is probably a great deal for Purdue as well because I see it as a win/win deal. Everyone will expect Purdue to lose and, if they do, the loss will not hurt them but a win would be a HUGE quality win to push up Purdue's seed plus it would get them into the B1GCG which would be another game that really couldn't hurt their seed and could help their seed even more.
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Huskers playing defense
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Huskers playing defense
This could be catastrophic for Rutgers' tournament chances.
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if anyone with a vote was watching
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Our bubble teams are not closing well. In the last week or so:
- Rutgers lost at Nebraska
- Minnesota lost at home to Northwestern
- Minnesota lost at Nebraska
Here are all 14 teams conference records along with a breakdown into:
- Record against the .500+ teams (M, IL, IA, PU, tOSU, UW, UMD)
- Record against the <.500 teams (RU, MSU, IU, MN, PSU, NU, UNL)
- Record against the top-12 (all but NU, UNL)
- Record against the bottom-2 (NU, UNL)
(https://i.imgur.com/6P0ows9.png)
Wisconsin and Purdue seem to be our most consistent teams. At 9-1 and 8-2 respectively against the sub .500 teams they are among the best in the league. They are also both perfect against the bottom two (4-0 for UW, 2-0 for PU) and not so good against the .500+ teams. Purdue is not bad there at 3-4 (0.429) but Wisconsin is dreadful, 1-7 or 0.125. That is third worst in the league ahead of only Northwestern and Nebraska.
Illinois' 2-2.5 game lead over their pursuers (IA, PU, tOSU) appears to be a function of two things:
- They do appear to be better than the aforementioned IA, PU, and tOSU. Illinois is second best in the league behind only Michigan against the .500+ teams (IA 3rd, tOSU 4th, PU 5th). The Illini are also second best in the league behind only Michigan against the top-12 (IA/tOSU 3rd/4th, PU 5th).
- They have played a slightly easier schedule than the Hawkeyes, Boilermakers, and Buckeyes. Illinois has played only six games against .500+ teams compared to seven each for IA and PU and eight for tOSU. Similarly, Illinois has played all four possible games against the bottom two compared to two each for PU and IA and three for tOSU.
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Looking at tonight's games:
14-4 Illinois at 13-1 Michigan, 7pm, ESPN:
Michigan is probably going to win the B1G Regular Season Title regardless (because all they need is one win in their last three games OR one Illinois loss in Illinois' last two games) but they can end the suspense with a win tonight.
If Michigan wins:
The Wolverines clinch the title and the #1 seed in the BTT while the #2 seed stays in range for Iowa and Purdue. Either the Hawkeyes or Boilermakers would still need to win out and for tOSU to beat Illinois this weekend but at least it would still be possible.
If Illinois wins:
The Illini clinch at least the #2 seed in the BTT and remain at least mathematically alive for the Regular Season Title although they would still need to win in Columbus and for the Spartans to sweep the Wolverines.
7-10 Indiana at 7-10 Michigan State, 8pm BTN:
Indiana can't get to .500 in the league because they are only going to play 19 games but if they win this they can at least get within a half a game (by also beating Purdue). If they lose this their NCAA chances go nearly on life support. Michigan State can get to .500 in the league but only if they win this then sweep the Wolverines so this game is pretty important for them as well. Furthermore, Lunardi currently lists the Spartans and Hoosiers as the first and third teams out so the winner probably moves in (at least temporarily) while the loser will obviously have work to do.
10-8 Wisconsin at 11-6 Purdue, 9pm, ESPN2:
Both teams look to be safely in the tournament so this game is all about seeding. Wisconsin has lost three of their last four, and hasn't had a quality win since winning at Maryland over a month ago. Purdue has won three straight and four of five since suffering a heartbreaking 1-point loss at Maryland a month ago today. They finish the season with a home game against their arch-rivals on Saturday so finishing on a five-game winning streak is looking more and more likely.
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Per Lunardi:
- #1: Michigan, Illinois
- #2: Iowa, Ohio State
- #5: Purdue
- #6: Wisconsin
- #8: Maryland
- #9: Rutgers
First Four Out:
- #1 Michigan State
- #3 Indiana
Putting eight teams in those seeds would typically result in:
- 6.14 in the R32
- 3.76 in the S16
- 2.55 in the E8
- 1.34 in the F4
- 0.73 in the NC
- 0.4 National Champions
Here is the math behind that although I'm pretty sure only @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) (if even him) will care:
(https://i.imgur.com/vrDEClN.png)
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I care. Thank you.
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I care. Thank you.
Ok then I'll explain it in case it doesn't already make sense.
For your projected #6 seed Badgers use the #6 seed line:
- A #6 has a 62.86% chance of winning their NCAA opener (against #11).
- A #6 has a 30% chance of also winning their R32 game to get to S16 (against 3/14) - NOTE this is cumulative, a #6 has a 30% chance of getting to the S16 by winning both their first and second NCAA games.
- A #6 has a 10% chance of winning their S16 game to get to E8 (against 2/7/10/15)
- A #6 has a 2.14% chance of winning their E8 game to get to the F4 (against 1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16)
- A #6 has a 1.43% chance of winning the semi-final to get to the Championship
- A #6 has a 0.71% chance of winning the National Championship
Summing things up for the league as a whole:
- Our two #1 seeds have a 99.29% chance each of winning their opener against #16 so cumulatively that should result in 1.9857 teams in the R32
- Our two #2 seeds have a 94.29% chance each of winning their opener against #15 so cumulatively that should result in 1.8857 teams in the R32
- Our one #5 seed has a 64.29% chance of winning their opener against #12 so that should result in 0.6429 teams in the R32
- Our one #6 seed has a 62.86% chance of winning their NCAA opener against #11 so that should result in 0.6286 teams in the R32
- Our one #8 seed has a 48.57% chance of winning their NCAA opener against #9 so that should result in 0.4857 teams in the R32
- Our one #9 seed has a 51.43% chance of winning their NCAA opener against #8 so that should result in 0.5143 teams in the R32
- The sum of the above is 6.1429
. . .
- Our two #1 seeds have a 15.71% chance each of winning the NC so cumulatively that should result in 0.3143 National Championships
- Our two #2 seeds have a 3.57% chance each of winning the NC so cumulatively that should result in 0.0714 National Championships
- Our one #5 seed has a 0% chance of winning the NC - NOTE: I realize that this isn't technically correct. Their chance is actually something marginally better than 0.00% but in the whole history of the 64-team bracket, none of the 140 #5 seeds have ever done it.
- Our one #6 seed has a 0.71% chance of winning the NC (it has happened once out of 140 #6 seeds since expansion to 64 teams).
- Our one #7 seed has a 0.71% chance of winning the NC (one in 140)
- Our one #8 seed has a 0.71% chance of winning the NC (one in 140)
- Our one #9 seed has a 0% chance of winning the NC - same note as above
- The sum of the above is 0.40.
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Didn't expect this score from the Illini at half without Ayo.
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Didn't expect this score from the Illini at half without Ayo.
Between Nebraska without Allen last night and Illinois without Dosunmu tonight, I'm suddenly nervous that Armond Franklin is out for Indiana. Although the countermove to give Foster Loyer season ending shoulder surgery is why Izzo is in the HOF
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Ayo going down might be the best thing to happen to Illinois, as he should be back by the tourney and everyone is really thriving without him.
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MSU shot their wad last week. Absolutely no legs. Seeing UM tonight, and even both Iowa (even though they won) and OSU on Sunday, I'm wondering just how much this money grab to make up all these games was. Everyone looks awful
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MSU-Indiana now a combined 2-20 from three.
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Huskers played their 12th game in a month last night
legs seemed ok
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Huskers played their 12th game in a month last night
legs seemed ok
I'm just saying, when every missed shot is short, and you are playing your 5th game in 10 days, you can usually point to something.
Ita not something you see in getting up and down the court, you see it in the jump shots, usually.
A bunch of the contenders have looked awful offensively over the past few days.
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Sucking is what these next two-ish hour will do for me. That damn building in W/L.
Randomly, one of Bo's most petty moments that sticks with me happened there.
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Illinois stuffs Michigan into a trash can
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Illinois stuffs Michigan into a trash can
Making a really strong case for a #1 seed!
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Well that was surprising. Should help with staying on that 1 seed line.
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Horizon league - Wright State goes down, Cleveland State in third OT
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This MSU team deserves to enjoy Frisco.
Henry splits a pair of FTs, then Hauser misses the front end.
Hoosiers hand you 6 points, and you settle for 2.
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I'm just saying, when every missed shot is short, and you are playing your 5th game in 10 days, you can usually point to something.
Ita not something you see in getting up and down the court, you see it in the jump shots, usually.
A bunch of the contenders have looked awful offensively over the past few days.
I was gonna make a joke about this because I think the tired legs is a very playing the results kind of thing, but looking at the final shooting numbers, well, MSU might have bad shooters whose legs are also tired.
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Wisconsin played generally well in Mackey outside the continued inability to hit open 3s, which is kinda important when your team is four-out and everyone has a decent jumper.
They lost by 4, had not that many looks I was mad at and hit 24 percent from outside. Oh, and they caught that giant going nuts and 11 points on three 3-point attempts and one free throw trip from a guy who was shooting 22 percent from 3 and 41.6 percent from the line.
I'm not really mad because the fight was really, really there, but if they did one thing they're supposed to be good at well OR Wheeler doesn't discover his groove, they coulda actually gotten a win they really, really needed.
(And the giant kid probably could've been chased from the game is Nate Reuvers, who in theory can shoot, could take advantage of a couple goddamn pick and pops. Christ)
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I was gonna make a joke about this because I think the tired legs is a very playing the results kind of thing, but looking at the final shooting numbers, well, MSU might have bad shooters whose legs are also tired.
And in fairness I said that pretty early into the MSU Indiana game. And it was more seeing that, after a good deal of the Michigan Illinois game, the Illinois Wisconsin game, and the Iowa Ohio State game, over the weekend. All of which seem to suffer from poor shooting, compared to what I had seen earlier. It was not an MSU specific thing
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And in fairness I said that pretty early into the MSU Indiana game. And it was more seeing that, after a good deal of the Michigan Illinois game, the Illinois Wisconsin game, and the Iowa Ohio State game, over the weekend. All of which seem to suffer from poor shooting, compared to what I had seen earlier. It was not an MSU specific thing
Wisconsin's non-sensical lack of depth in 2015 has made me believe that unless you're super up and down, tired legs is maybe sometimes an illusion to explain natural swings of the game.
Shoot, if it is a thing, UW needs to figure out why it's had tired legs for a damn month.
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If UW would like to shock me and win another game, I'm good with that.
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If UW would like to shock me and win another game, I'm good with that.
I honestly felt like they played more than well enough to win last night. But if you're gonna miss 10-plus open 3s on the road in Mackey, I got nothing.
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Where are you at with seniors/moving on?
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Where are you at with seniors/moving on?
The lack of seniors moving on is killing social security
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ESPN+ night in the Horizon last night. Four quarterfinal games, #1 Cleveland State survived in 3OT, #2 Wright State blew an 18 point second half lead and lost in OT, #3 Oakland won in OT, and Detroit Mercy lost by 1
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The lack of seniors moving on is killing social security
Well... not this past year really.
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just noticed basketball has started a playoff like football. about time, need to determine champs on court, not on paper. though i am concerned with the number of teams in it. don't want some small time team running around ruining a good teams chances, like a modern cinderella.
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Where are you at with seniors/moving on?
I still think any that want to come back should be welcomed. If all wanted to come back, that might be an issue. I’d take Trice or Potter back in a heartbeat. I’d take Reuvers back begrudgingly (he’s better than he’s played and would be a good bridge). I’d take Davison because if he leaves they’ll have to bring in a transfer in his place, and he already knows the system, is probably better than most transfers they’d get and is more likely to bounce back than not. Anderson is in his natural state a fourth guard, so that’s just a luxury. If he’s playing more than that, it means the new guys are bad.
Basically, having any back is better than not, just because of the inexperience next year. If they play the same minutes, it means the new guys weren’t better, which means a team without senior would’ve been worse.
I still think Brad and Anderson are the only ones who might come back. And I’d take both. I’d also take Brad over anderson, but Anderson seems more likely to return.
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If UW would like to shock me and win another game, I'm good with that.
my exact thoughts on the Huskers
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Three teams in the NET rankings.
| Rank | Overall | Road | Neutral | Home | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 |
| 6 | 18-7 | 6-4 | 0-1 | 12-2 | 6-6 | 6-1 | 1-0 | 5-0 |
| 10 | 17-8 | 4-6 | 2-1 | 11-1 | 6-8 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
| 21 | 17-8 | 5-6 | 2-1 | 10-1 | 7-7 | 6-0 | 2-1 | 2-0 |
I don't see much of a difference between these resumes. No argument with #6 being ahead of the other two... Better road record, 12 wins over Q1/Q2 which is respectable. But it seems to me that #21 and #10 should either be identical, or #21 ahead... More Q1 wins and better win% against Q1, more Q2 wins, better road record, and less feasting on Quad 4 cupcakes with only 2 games instead of 5. Only blemish is the single Q3 loss.
NET doesn't take into account blue blood status, so it can't be that.
What am I missing?
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Even though MOV is capped at 10, there has to be a lot of it baked into the efficiency ratings. Because if you look at Michigan State, just based on what is on the net sheet, it doesn't make any sense why they are so low. The only thing is how many of their losses have been ugly, and how many of their winds have been closed
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Three teams in the NET rankings.
| Rank | Overall | Road | Neutral | Home | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 |
| 6 | 18-7 | 6-4 | 0-1 | 12-2 | 6-6 | 6-1 | 1-0 | 5-0 |
| 10 | 17-8 | 4-6 | 2-1 | 11-1 | 6-8 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
| 21 | 17-8 | 5-6 | 2-1 | 10-1 | 7-7 | 6-0 | 2-1 | 2-0 |
I didn't check out the three teams and I'm not familiar with all the inner workings of NET rankings but could it be because not all Q1 games are equal?
Playing #1 on the road or #30 at home are both Q1 games but for these three teams one of those would be a big upset if they won and one a big upset if they lost. I think that the rankings factor that in.
Happens in football too. People talk about "ranked wins" and it can be a good shorthand but it can also be misleading because there is a big difference between, #1 on the road and #25 at home and there is an even bigger difference between #26 on the road and #115 at home.
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The home stretch continues to batter our bubble teams.
With Minnesota's loss at PSU I think it is safe to say that they now can't make the tournament without winning the BTT. Unless the BTT gets moved to the Barn, I don't see that happening.
Maryland's loss to PSU isn't as final but it could be problematic for the Terps.
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I didn't check out the three teams and I'm not familiar with all the inner workings of NET rankings but could it be because not all Q1 games are equal?
Playing #1 on the road or #30 at home are both Q1 games but for these three teams one of those would be a big upset if they won and one a big upset if they lost. I think that the rankings factor that in.
Happens in football too. People talk about "ranked wins" and it can be a good shorthand but it can also be misleading because there is a big difference between, #1 on the road and #25 at home and there is an even bigger difference between #26 on the road and #115 at home.
6 was Iowa, 10 was Kansas, and 21 was Purdue (hence why I was looking at it). I didn't download the team sheets for each, so it's quite possible this is the case...
It could be that Purdue was cleaning up on low-Q1 wins and losing to high-Q1 opponents while the other two were doing the opposite.
But that would also mean that the quality of Iowa and Kansas' losses would be worse too, because if they're beating the high-Q1 opponents they need low-Q1 losses to balance.
The only thing that would make sense, then, is if their schedules were much less favorable and they were playing more high-Q1 games than Purdue, whose schedule would be more dominated by low-Q1 games, giving them less chance to excel. But that would seem to be belied by one of the other teams being Iowa, who faces a pretty similar strength of schedule to Purdue--and the B1G being stronger than the B12 would seem that both teams have tougher slates than Kansas this year.
Or, of course, margin of victory might play a role. Again I haven't looked closely at that.
I find it interesting... KenPom has Purdue at 14 and Sagarin at 15, but Bart Torvik has them at 21, right where they are in the NET. Interestingly Torvik has Kansas at 23 and KenPom at 19, so in both rankings Purdue is ahead, while Sagarin has Kansas at 10. The Massey Composite as of Feb 28 (so not reflecting the Purdue win over Wisconsin) has Kansas at 13 and Purdue at 19.
Being a numbers geek, I find it interesting.
Obviously NET is a records-based ranking. KenPom and Torvik are efficiency-based. I'm not sure on Sagarin.
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Wisconsin gets the good news that Lorne Bowman Will re-join the basketball program for next season. He was supposed to be a freshman this year, but left school due to some kind of family situation and maybe homesickness impacted by the pandemic isolation.
He might not have had that much impact on this season, other than allowing them to bench a struggling shooting guard more frequently if the freshman was as good as hoped. But his absence did have a rather profound effect on some of their off-season plans, as it likely means they will need at least one extra transfer.
Anyway, glad to have a player who I hope and think will be good in the mix.
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This is fantastic news. I hope it comes to pass when the time comes.
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6 was Iowa, 10 was Kansas, and 21 was Purdue (hence why I was looking at it). I didn't download the team sheets for each, so it's quite possible this is the case...
It could be that Purdue was cleaning up on low-Q1 wins and losing to high-Q1 opponents while the other two were doing the opposite.
But that would also mean that the quality of Iowa and Kansas' losses would be worse too, because if they're beating the high-Q1 opponents they need low-Q1 losses to balance.
The only thing that would make sense, then, is if their schedules were much less favorable and they were playing more high-Q1 games than Purdue, whose schedule would be more dominated by low-Q1 games, giving them less chance to excel. But that would seem to be belied by one of the other teams being Iowa, who faces a pretty similar strength of schedule to Purdue--and the B1G being stronger than the B12 would seem that both teams have tougher slates than Kansas this year.
Or, of course, margin of victory might play a role. Again I haven't looked closely at that.
I find it interesting... KenPom has Purdue at 14 and Sagarin at 15, but Bart Torvik has them at 21, right where they are in the NET. Interestingly Torvik has Kansas at 23 and KenPom at 19, so in both rankings Purdue is ahead, while Sagarin has Kansas at 10. The Massey Composite as of Feb 28 (so not reflecting the Purdue win over Wisconsin) has Kansas at 13 and Purdue at 19.
Being a numbers geek, I find it interesting.
Obviously NET is a records-based ranking. KenPom and Torvik are efficiency-based. I'm not sure on Sagarin.
Within the B1G, here are the sheets I have for Iowa and Purdue:
(https://i.imgur.com/Ghz1pjT.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/8gaiuGB.png)
Iowa's league schedule looks slightly tougher I think but it is pretty close:
- Michigan: Both played once but Iowa was on the road. Tougher for Iowa.
- Illinois: Both played once on the road. Even.
- Iowa: Purdue played on the road. Tougher for Purdue.
- Purdue: Iowa played at home. Tougher for Iowa (These two, the H2H balance out as tougher for Purdue).
- Ohio State: Both played twice. Even.
- Wisconsin: Iowa played on the road, Purdue played at home. Tougher for Iowa.
Like I said, that does look tougher for Iowa to me, but not by much.
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What the hell is up with the NCAA tourney this year???
- First Four is Thursday, all the games?
- R64 is Fri/Sat instead of the traditional Thurs/Fri
- R32 is Sun/Mon
- S16 is Sat/Sun
- E8 is Mon/Tue
- F4 is Saturday
- NC is Monday
Is this some COVID adjustment?
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What the hell is up with the NCAA tourney this year???
- First Four is Thursday, all the games?
- R64 is Fri/Sat instead of the traditional Thurs/Fri
- R32 is Sun/Mon
- S16 is Sat/Sun
- E8 is Mon/Tue
- F4 is Saturday
- NC is Monday
Is this some COVID adjustment?
Not certain but every game is in Indiana so they may have had to dance around some logistics or something.
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B1G Regular Season Championship Race and BTT seeding races update:
Illinois stayed alive in the B1G Championship race by winning at Michigan but they can only win the title if they beat Ohio State in Columbus this weekend AND the Wolverines get swept by the Spartans. Any one of those three results are reasonably likely, the combination of all three is a remote possibility.
For each team I'll list their current record and what they have left, then below that I'll list their possible outcomes:
13-2 Michigan, vs MSU, @MSU:
- 15-2: League Champion and BTT #1
- 14-3: League Champion and BTT #1
- 13-4: Second place and BTT #2 unless tOSU beats ILL
15-4 Illinois, @tOSU:
- 16-4: League Champion and BTT #1 if MSU sweeps M, otherwise second place and BTT #2
- 15-5: BTT #2
12-6 Iowa, vs UNL, vs UW:
- 14-6: BTT #3
- 13-7: BTT #3 if PU and tOSU both lose. BTT #4 if either PU or tOSU lose. BTT #5 if both PU and tOSU win.
- 12-8: BTT #4 if tOSU loses. BTT #5 if tOSU wins.
12-6 Purdue, vs IU:
- 13-6: BTT #3 if IA loses at least once. BTT #4 if IA wins out.
- 12-7: BTT #3 if IA and tOSU lose out. BTT #4 if either IA or tOSU loses out. BTT #5 is neither IA nor tOSU loses out.
12-7 Ohio State, vs IL:
- 13-7: BTT #3 if IA and PU lose at least once each. BTT #4 if either IA or PU loses at least once. BTT #5 if both PU and IA win out.
- 12-8: BTT #4 if IA loses out. BTT #5 if IA wins at least once.
10-9 Wisconsin, @ IA:
- 11-9: BTT #6
- 10-10: * see below
9-10 Maryland, vs PSU:
- 10-10: * see below
- 9-11: * see below
9-10 Rutgers, @MN:
- 10-10: * see below
- 9-11: * see below
8-10 Michigan State, @M, vsM:
- 10-10: * see below
- 9-11: * see below
- 8-12: BTT #9 if PU beats IU. BTT #10 if IU beats PU.
7-11 Indiana, @PU:
- 8-11: BTT #10 if MSU gets swept by M. BTT #11 if MSU beats M at least once.
- 7-12: BTT #11
6-12 Penn State, @UMD:
- 7-12: BTT #12
- 6-13: BTT #12 if RU beats MN. BTT #13 if MN beats RU.
6-13 Minnesota, vsRU:
- 7-13: BTT #11 if UMD beats PSU. BTT #12 if PSU beats UMD.
- 6-14: BTT #12 if UNL beats NU. BTT #13 if NU beats UNL.
5-13 Northwestern, vs UNL:
- 6-13: BTT #12 if RU beats MN. BTT #13 if MN beats RU.
- 5-14: BTT #14 if UNL beats IA. BTT #13 if IA beats UNL.
3-14 Nebraska, @ IA, @NU:
- 5-14: BTT #13
- 4-15: BTT #14
- 3-16: BTT #14
The group closest to .500 is the most complex because up to four teams could mathematically finish 10-10 (UW with a loss @IA, UMD with a win vs PSU, RU with a win @MN, and MSU with a sweep of M). Three of them could finish 9-11 (UMD with a loss vs PSU, RU with a loss @MN, and MSU if they split with M).
Here is how that would all the 10-10 ties would break down:
- 10-10 tie for 6th/7th between UW and UMD: Maryland wins based on their superior record against IL.
- 10-10 tie for 6th/7th between UW and RU: Wisconsin wins, 1-0 H2H.
- 10-10 tie for 6th/7th between UW and MSU: Wisconsin wins, 1-0 H2H.
- 10-10 tie for 6th/7th/8th between UW, UMD, and RU: UW is 2-1 H2H, UMD is 2-2, RU is 1-2.
- 10-10 tie for 6th/7th/8th between UW, RU, and MSU: UW is 2-0 H2H, MSU is 1-2 H2H, RU is 1-2 H2H. UW gets the #6 seed. Rutgers gets the #7 seed based on their superior record against IL if IL beats tOSU. If tOSU beats IL then MSU gets the #7 based on their superior record against M.
- 10-10 tie for 6/7/8 between UW, UMD, and MSU: UMD is 2-1 H2H, UW is 2-1 H2H, MSU is 0-2 H2H. UMD gets the #6 seed based on their superior record against IL, UW gets the #7, MSU gets the #8.
- 10-10 tie for 6/7/8/9 between UW, UMD, RU, and MSU: UW is 3-1 H2H, UMD is 3-2 H2H, RU is 2-3 H2H, MSU is 1-3 H2H. Thus #6 UW, #7 UMD, #8 RU, #9 MSU.
- 10-10 tie for 7/8/9 between UMD, RU, and MSU: UMD is 2-1 H2H, RU is 2-2 H2H, MSU is 1-2 H2H,
- 10-10 tie for 7/8 between UMD and RU: Rutgers wins based on their superior record against PU.
- 10-10 tie for 7/8 between UMD and MSU: Maryland wins based on H2H (1-0).
- 10-10 tie for 7/8 between RU and MSU: MSU wins based on their superior record against M.
I think that is all of them.
Now for the potential 9-11 ties:
- 9-11 tie for 7/8/9 between UMD, RU, and MSU: UMD is 2-1 H2H, RU is 2-2 H2H, MSU is 1-2 H2H.
- 9-11 tie for 8/9 between UMD and RU: Rutgers wins based on their superior record against PU.
- 9-11 tie for 8/9 between UMD and MSU: Maryland wins based on H2H (1-0).
- 9-11 tie for 8/9 between RU and MSU: MSU wins based on their superior record against M.
I think that is all of them.
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FWIW, if the BTT started today:
- 13-2 Michigan
- 15-4 Illinois
- 12-6 Iowa (wins tie with PU based on H2H)
- 12-6 Purdue
- 12-7 Ohio State
- 10-9 Wisconsin
- 9-10 Rutgers (wins tie with UMD based on record against PU)
- 9-10 Maryland
- 8-10 Michigan State
- 7-11 Indiana
- 6-12 Penn State
- 6-13 Minnesota
- 5-13 Northwestern
- 3-14 Nebraska
Wednesday:
- #11 Penn State vs #14 Nebraska
- #12 Minnesota vs #13 Northwestern
Thursday:
- #5 Ohio State vs MN/NU
- #6 Wisconsin vs PSU/UNL
- #7 Rutgers vs #10 Indiana
- #8 Maryland vs #9 Michigan State
Friday:
- #1 Michigan vs UMD/MSU (potentially a third straight game against the Spartans, yay)
- #2 Illinois vs RU/IU
- #3 Iowa vs UW/PSU/UNL
- #4 Purdue vs tOSU/MN/NU
Saturday:
- M/UMD/MSU vs PU/tOSU/MN/NU
- IL/RU/IU vs IA/UW/PSU/UNL
Sunday:
- M/UMD/MSU/PU/tOSU/MN/NU vs IL/RU/IU/IA/UW/PSU/UNL
I'm not liking that for Ohio State at all. Their first opponent would either be NU whom they went 1-1 against or MN whom they went 0-1 against. Then if they won that, their second opponent would be PU whom they went 0-2 against. If they managed to win both of those their next opponent would likely be Michigan.
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If OSU has trouble with Minnesota at this point, oh no. That Minnesota team is like penicillin for the swoons
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If OSU has trouble with Minnesota at this point, oh no. That Minnesota team is like penicillin for the swoons
Minnesota is also just plain weird. They are the only team in the whole league that actually has a better record against the .500+ B1G teams than they do overall:
- 4-6 The Gophers are .400 against the .500+ teams
- 2-7 The Gophers are .222 against the sub .500 teams
In fact the Gophers are better against the .500+ teams than they are against the worst two teams in the league (1-2 or .333 against NU and UNL). That said they do appear to be collapsing right now. Back on February 11 they beat the Boilermakers (a great quality win) and since then they have lost six straight including five to teams behind Purdue in the standings and back-to-back losses to NU and UNL.
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Weird stylistic nit to pick...
I don't like the phrases "wins out" or "loses out" when a team only has one game remaining... Something about it implies "losing every remaining game" in the sense that there are multiple. I realize winning out or losing out when there is only one game remaining still makes sense, but it's not how I'd use the phrase when it's a single event.
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LINCOLN — The Big Ten announced Thursday morning it will allow up to 8,000 fans per game at its men's basketball tournament and 2,500 fans at its women's tournament next week in Indianapolis.
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Villanova PG Collin Gillespie out for season with a torn MCL. Man that sucks.
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Weird stylistic nit to pick...
I don't like the phrases "wins out" or "loses out" when a team only has one game remaining... Something about it implies "losing every remaining game" in the sense that there are multiple. I realize winning out or losing out when there is only one game remaining still makes sense, but it's not how I'd use the phrase when it's a single event.
I think I only did that where I was referring to two teams and one of them has two games remaining. I agree generally but it was basically just to save me some typing where two teams had a combined three games remaining so I said, for example, "if PU and IA both win out" meaning if PU wins their one remaining game and Iowa wins their two remaining games.
After tonight I will update and all 14 teams will have exactly one game remaining so there will be no need for "win out" or "lose out" or other references such as "win at least one" and "lose at least one", it will simply be based on win/lose the one remaining game.
Ten of the 14 teams have only two possibilities now (Ie, Illinois finishes 16-4 if they beat Ohio State this weekend and 15-5 if they lose to Ohio State this weekend. The four teams playing tonight (M, MSU, IA, UNL) each have three possible final records and after tonight they will each be reduced to two with the current worst eliminated for the winners and the current best eliminated for the losers.
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9-2 run for UM to end the half after the inexplicable flagrant foul on Aaron Henry, for having the audacity to not control his elbows while getting fouled while trying to make a layup
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LINCOLN — The Big Ten announced Thursday morning it will allow up to 8,000 fans per game at its men's basketball tournament and 2,500 fans at its women's tournament next week in Indianapolis.
I won't try to attend this but I will be looking to score some tickets for a round at Hinkle.
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B1G Regular Season Championship Race and BTT seeding races update:
Illinois stayed alive in the B1G Championship race by winning at Michigan but they can only win the title if they beat Ohio State in Columbus this weekend AND the Wolverines get swept by the Spartans. Any one of those three results are reasonably likely, the combination of all three is a remote possibility.
For each team I'll list their current record and what they have left, then below that I'll list their possible outcomes:
13-2 Michigan, @MSU:
- 15-2: League Champion and BTT #1
- 14-3: League Champion and BTT #1
15-4 Illinois, @tOSU:
12-6 Iowa, vs UW:
- 14-6: BTT #3
- 13-7: BTT #3 if PU and tOSU both lose. BTT #4 if either PU or tOSU lose. BTT #5 if both PU and tOSU win.
12-6 Purdue, vs IU:
- 13-6: BTT #3 if IA loses. BTT #4 if IA wins.
- 12-7: BTT #3 if IA and tOSU lose. BTT #4 if either IA or tOSU lose. BTT #5 is neither IA nor tOSU loses.
12-7 Ohio State, vs IL:
- 13-7: BTT #3 if IA and PU lose. BTT #4 if either IA or PU loses. BTT #5 if both PU and IA win.
- 12-8: BTT #5.
10-9 Wisconsin, @ IA:
- 11-9: BTT #6
- 10-10: * see below
9-10 Maryland, vs PSU:
- 10-10: * see below
- 9-11: * see below
9-10 Rutgers, @MN:
- 10-10: * see below
- 9-11: * see below
8-10 Michigan State, @M, vsM:
- 9-11: * see below
- 8-12: BTT #9 if PU beats IU. BTT #10 if IU beats PU.
7-11 Indiana, @PU:
- 8-11: BTT #10 if MSU gets swept by M. BTT #11 if MSU beats M at least once.
- 7-12: BTT #11
6-12 Penn State, @UMD:
- 7-12: BTT #12
- 6-13: BTT #12 if RU beats MN. BTT #13 if MN beats RU.
6-13 Minnesota, vsRU:
- 7-13: BTT #11 if UMD beats PSU. BTT #12 if PSU beats UMD.
- 6-14: BTT #12 if UNL beats NU. BTT #13 if NU beats UNL.
5-13 Northwestern, vs UNL:
- 6-13: BTT #12 if RU beats MN. BTT #13 if MN beats RU.
- 5-14: BTT #14 if UNL beats IA. BTT #13 if IA beats UNL.
3-14 Nebraska, @NU:
- 4-15: BTT #14
- 3-16: BTT #14
The group closest to .500 is the most complex because up to three teams could mathematically finish 10-10 (UW with a loss @IA, UMD with a win vs PSU, and RU with a win @MN). Additionally, three teams could finish 9-11 (UMD with a loss vs PSU, RU with a loss @MN, and MSU with a win over M).
Here is how that would all the 10-10 ties would break down:
- 10-10 tie for 6th/7th between UW and UMD: Maryland wins based on their superior record against IL.
- 10-10 tie for 6th/7th between UW and RU: Wisconsin wins, 1-0 H2H.
- 10-10 tie for 6th/7th/8th between UW, UMD, and RU: UW is 2-1 H2H, UMD is 2-2, RU is 1-2.
- 10-10 tie for 7/8 between UMD and RU: Rutgers wins based on their superior record against PU.
I think that is all of them.
Now for the potential 9-11 ties:
- 9-11 tie for 7/8/9 between UMD, RU, and MSU: UMD is 2-1 H2H, RU is 2-2 H2H, MSU is 1-2 H2H.
- 9-11 tie for 8/9 between UMD and RU: Rutgers wins based on their superior record against PU.
- 9-11 tie for 8/9 between UMD and MSU: Maryland wins based on H2H (1-0).
- 9-11 tie for 8/9 between RU and MSU: MSU wins based on their superior record against M.
I think that is all of them.
So after Thursday night's games the #1 (Michigan), #2 (Illinois), and #14 (Nebraska) seeds are clinched but the other 11 are are tbd.
Iowa and Purdue control their own destinies for top-4 seeds and not having to play until Friday.
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Watching Purdue Indiana descend into the announcers just killing the refs on every possession
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UW is locked into 6th. Likely to finish 2.5 games out of fifth. That fact is annoying to me
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Purdue TCOB today. Now I don't have to work about the IL/OSU or IA/WI games, at least not for the double bye.
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Purdue TCOB today. Now I don't have to work about the IL/OSU or IA/WI games, at least not for the double bye.
You should still probably root for Wisconsin tomorrow because as #3 your Boilermakers would avoid Michigan until the CG but as #4 you would likely meet them in the semi-final.
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This ESPN broadcast is rough. It looked like Kyle Young got absolutely hammered with no call. The refs whistle a touch foul on OSU. There is no replay of anything, and Dick Vitale is babbling on about his foundation and god knows what the whole time.
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Cockburn makes Liddell look like a little kid.
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This ESPN broadcast is rough. It looked like Kyle Young got absolutely hammered with no call. The refs whistle a touch foul on OSU. There is no replay of anything, and Dick Vitale is babbling on about his foundation and god knows what the whole time.
I was listening to the radio broadcast for part of it, much better.
However, on the radio they stated that Ohio State was locked into the #5 seed due to Purdue's win. I think that will probably be correct but I do NOT think it is locked in.
If Ohio State beats Illinois and Iowa loses to Wisconsin the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes would tie for 4th/5th at 13-7.
- First tiebreaker is H2H, they split so move on.
- Second tiebreaker is record against the best team. Both are 0-season against Michigan.
- Third tiebreaker is record against the next best team. Ohio State would be 2-0 against Illinois while Iowa is 0-1 against the Illini.
As I read that, Ohio State would win that tie and get the #4 seed.
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This is terrible. This is a top ten matchup and great game, and the play by play guy can barely get Vitale to pay attention to it.
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Buckeyes' shot selection as they have collapsed down the stretch has been awful.
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Quite a game. Tough finish for OSU, but it was gonna come down to something close, I suppose.
Ayo is pretty good, I guess.
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Updated for RU>MN, PU>IU, and IL>tOSU:
- 15-2 or 14-3 Michigan.
- 16-4 Illinois.
- 14-6 Iowa if they beat UW, 13-6 Purdue if Iowa loses.
- 13-6 Purdue if IA beats UW, 13-7 Iowa if they lose.
- 12-8 Ohio State.
- 11-9 or 10-10 Wisconsin.
- 10-10 Rutgers if UW wins or UMD loses. 10-10 Maryland if they win and UW loses.
- 10-10 Rutgers if UW loses and UMD wins. 10-10 Maryland if they and UW both win. 9-11 Maryland if they lose.
- 9-11 or 8-12 Michigan State.
- 7-12 Indiana.
- 7-12 or 6-13 Penn State.
- 6-14 Minnesota if NU loses. 6-13 Northwestern if they win.
- 6-14 Minnesota if NU wins. 6-13 Northwestern if they win.
- 4-15 or 3-16 Nebraska.
BTT match ups, Wednesday:
- #11 Penn State vs #14 Nebraska
- #12/13 Northwestern vs Minnesota
Thursday :
- #5 Ohio State vs NU/MN
- #6 Wisconsin vs PSU/UNL
- #7 Rutgers or Maryland vs #10 Indiana
- #8 Rutgers or Maryland vs #9 Michigan State
Friday:
- #1 Michigan vs RU or UMD / MSU
- #2 Illinois vs RU or UMD / IU
- #3 Iowa or Purdue vs UW/PSU/UNL
- #4 Purdue or Iowa vs tOSU/NU/MN
Saturday:
- M / RU or UMD / MSU vs PU or IA /tOSU/NU/MN
- IL / RU or UMD / IU vs IA or PU /UW/PSU/UNL
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I have not watched much college basketball this year, which is pretty common for me. I do get into the tournaments though.
But I turned on the television after my round of golf to see Ohio State with a four point lead with over three minutes to play. From there- all I can think is “how did this Ohio State team win 18 games“? They are terrible.
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Buckeyes' shot selection as they have collapsed down the stretch has been awful.
Yeah Duane Washington really lost the game by just taking a bunch of bad shots for no reason
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Yeah Duane Washington really lost the game by just taking a bunch of bad shots for no reason
I have to recount the ending for myself and those who didn't see it, what a mess.
- 4:42, Washington made a layup to give Ohio State a four point lead at 65-61.
- 4:42-3:48 Illinois and Ohio State traded threes. Liddell hit tOSU's with 3:48 to go to regain the four point lead, 68-64.
- 3:46, tOSU called timeout.
- 3:46-3:32, tOSU got a defensive stop.
- 3:32, tOSU got a rebound so they had a four point lead and the ball.
- 3:32-2:33, due to back-to-back ORB's and an Illinois turnover, Ohio State had four opportunities to extend the lead. Aherns missed a three then Washington missed a three, then Washington missed a layup, then Washington missed again.
- 2:33-2:13, tOSU fouled the Illinois shooter who made one of two to make it 65-68.
- 2:13-1:54, tOSU had a chance to expand on the three point lead but Young missed a three.
- 1:54-1:33, Illinois hit a three to tie it up at 68.
- 1:33-1:09, tOSU had a chance to go back ahead but Washington missed a three.
- 1:09-0:44, Illinois made a layup, got fouled, and made the FT to take a three point lead 71-68.
- 0:44-0:25, Liddell missed a shot, tOSU had to foul, and Illinois made both FT's to take a five point lead 73-68.
- O:25-0:05, due to back-to-back ORB's, tOSU had three chances to cut the lead.Washington, Aherns, and Liddell each missed a three.
- 0:05, Illinois got the RB and that was that.
By my count Ohio State missed their last 10 shots:
- Five by Washington
- Two by Aherns
- Two by Liddell
- One by Young
Watching in real time it seemed like maybe one or two of the ten were actually good looks.
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This OSU team is fascinating to get a handle on.
They lost three top players from last year's team, plus one of the top young guys quit midseason. The replacements were fine, but nothing super notable. They were preseason No. 23, No. 10 in KenPom. So you expect good, not great.
They scuffle out of the gate, start conference play 5-4. Defense isn't good. Not much size. Offensive ability is there. They beat Illinois on the road, lose to Purdue at home. They were as low as No. 24 in KenPom at one point, but were 18 after that loss.
Then they beat Wisconsin to kick off winning seven in a row, including a shootout with Iowa, and rise to 6 in KenPom, No. 4 in the AP poll (polls are dumb). And then one bad loss, two toss-up type games against top-10 teams and Iowa where they rally after halftime but then lose the rope.
And in the end, you have a sort of flawed team (that defense) that is for the most part better than expected, and maybe better than the players it has, but after zenith landed with a thud. Like in the preseason, if I told OSU fans they'd be borderline top-10, great offense, top 2-3 seed, fifth in the conference, they'd take it. And if I told them that on Jan 20 they'd take it (maybe as late as right before the Iowa game?). But because of the timing, it feels just much worse.
But, of course, this sport has the tournament that will leave a taste in your mouth about the team for the next few years. So that's where a lot of the final impression is made.
(I'm reminded of Wisconsin teams that would start 5-0 and then catch OSU. Like the challenge of OSU wasn't different, but it felt different at 5-0 when they lost)
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I have to recount the ending for myself and those who didn't see it, what a mess.
- 4:42, Washington made a layup to give Ohio State a four point lead at 65-61.
- 4:42-3:48 Illinois and Ohio State traded threes. Liddell hit tOSU's with 3:48 to go to regain the four point lead, 68-64.
- 3:46, tOSU called timeout.
- 3:46-3:32, tOSU got a defensive stop.
- 3:32, tOSU got a rebound so they had a four point lead and the ball.
- 3:32-2:33, due to back-to-back ORB's and an Illinois turnover, Ohio State had four opportunities to extend the lead. Aherns missed a three then Washington missed a three, then Washington missed a layup, then Washington missed again.
- 2:33-2:13, tOSU fouled the Illinois shooter who made one of two to make it 65-68.
- 2:13-1:54, tOSU had a chance to expand on the three point lead but Young missed a three.
- 1:54-1:33, Illinois hit a three to tie it up at 68.
- 1:33-1:09, tOSU had a chance to go back ahead but Washington missed a three.
- 1:09-0:44, Illinois made a layup, got fouled, and made the FT to take a three point lead 71-68.
- 0:44-0:25, Liddell missed a shot, tOSU had to foul, and Illinois made both FT's to take a five point lead 73-68.
- O:25-0:05, due to back-to-back ORB's, tOSU had three chances to cut the lead.Washington, Aherns, and Liddell each missed a three.
- 0:05, Illinois got the RB and that was that.
By my count Ohio State missed their last 10 shots:
- Five by Washington
- Two by Aherns
- Two by Liddell
- One by Young
Watching in real time it seemed like maybe one or two of the ten were actually good looks.
Now you got my nerd brain curious
3:32-2:33, due to back-to-back ORB's and an Illinois turnover, Ohio State had four opportunities to extend the lead. Aherns missed a three then Washington missed a three, then Washington missed a layup, then Washington missed again.
Aherns 3 - Spot up, which is good, but a bit deep and with a defender not super close, but there. There's 10 seconds on the clock. I'd grade the shot as fine, unless you want Washington creating with like 6 on the clock.
Washington 3 - Came after the guard went under the screen. I don't know how he is off the bounce, but I'm inclined to let good shooters shoot in that spot. I'd say a better than OK shot.
Washington layup - He attacks on the reset. Just him on Cockburn. Puts it high to get it over the guy, but can't get it down. Not my favorite shot, but I understand the thought of, "We just missed two 3s, I need to be aggressive." I'd say not a super shot, but not going there would be pretty conservative. Interesting note, Washington's man sees he's beat and starts fading back toward Young, in the lane of a kickout, Heady play.
Washington layup - Another in the school of "we need to be aggressive and shoot close to the rim. Illinois ignores Young on the pop. Interestingly, no help really comes, so Washington tries to create some contact and flip it in over a guard he's stronger than, but the contact yields nothing and the shot is pretty wild.
2:13-1:54, tOSU had a chance to expand on the three point lead but Young missed a three.
This 3 is very open because Cockburn is guarding young and helping all the way off. Young seems to fade a little, which isn't ideal, but this is a very good shot with 10 on the clock.
1:33-1:09, tOSU had a chance to go back ahead but Washington missed a three.
Hmmm, I don't think this is a super shot. The defender doesn't get a hand up, which is often a green light. But the defender is close, close but unprepared and off-balance. It's sort of a "tough shot that sometimes goes in and might be better than anything else you get in the next 12 seconds" kind of shot.
0:44-0:25, Liddell missed a shot
As a shot type itself, this is a bad kind of shot. Fadeaway, mid post, ehh. That said, OSU has lived this year on shots that math deems less than good. If that's a pet shot for Liddell, I understand it more. He's got a big edge in height and weight, so he clears some space. Trying to press the size edge is tricky because Cockburn is cutting off one side and Ayo is lurking on the other. I'd call it a bad shot unless it's one that he really works, but it might be.
I wouldn't get too deep into the last three shots because you're almost never gonna take a good shot down 5 with under 25 seconds left.
So I'd say four good, three bad. OSU is a weird one on this because they kinda break the defensive math of basketball. And they were a little more down to earth on that front today, though I don't know if that was about defensive approach or just some regression.
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You should still probably root for Wisconsin tomorrow because as #3 your Boilermakers would avoid Michigan until the CG but as #4 you would likely meet them in the semi-final.
Eh. I'm not sure whether I'm more scared/excited for another crack at Michigan or at Illinois. Illinois might be a worse matchup because Cockburn is more capable of handling Purdue's size in the paint than Dickinson IMHO.
Either way, I don't care. It's house money at that point. A loss isn't terrible and a win is huge.
I'd like to see either game. We played both early in the season and the team has grown quite a bit since. It would be a good barometer before the tourney.
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I didn't find Washington's late drives to be good shots at all, mostly because there was still time to work for something good instead of just wild shots near the basket. As far as OSU it really felt like they gave the game away, and if they hadn't would be near a 1 seed, which is still crazy to me.
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I didn't find Washington's late drives to be good shots at all, mostly because there was still time to work for something good instead of just wild shots near the basket. As far as OSU it really felt like they gave the game away, and if they hadn't would be near a 1 seed, which is still crazy to me.
The first one, he blows past his guy and forces help. I suppose if the answer is if the other team has Cockburn, you don't want a guard trying to score at the rim, but I don't know that OSU has a player I'd want trying to score at the rim over that dude.
The second one, he's trying to score 1-on-1 with 11 on the clock. I get the theory, a thicker guard should be able to hit that. But he didn't take it well and should've just kicked out for the Young 3.
I think at some point, if you want to win big games, you're gonna have to hit some tough shots (or hell, some of the not tough ones they got). Like the go-ahead shot for Illinois wasn't pretty tough, but the kid just hit it. Also, the defensive miscue that allowed a 53.8 percent 3-point shooter to be wide open of the game-tying shot was real bad. That Young-Liddell pairing is a real tough set against the style of frontcourt Illinois has and they kinda lost a man while worrying about Cockburn.
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I wouldn't get too deep into the last three shots because you're almost never gonna take a good shot down 5 with under 25 seconds left.
Good point and I was thinking of eliminating them from my list on the theory that the game was pretty much over once Illinois made the two FT's to make it a five point game at 0:25.
Exclusive of those last three, Ohio State missed seven straight shots between 3:48 and 0:30.
- 1-4 would have pushed tOSU's lead to seven or eight with between 2:33-3:32 to go.
- 5 would have pushed tOSU's lead to six with 1:54 to go.
- 6 would have given tOSU a three point lead with 1:09 to go.
- 7 would have cut Illinois' lead to one with 0:30 to go.
My point is that tOSU was oh-so-close which is what made this loss so painful. Any of 1-6 would have given Ohio State a nearly 100% chance to win and even #7 would have at least left Ohio State to shoot a three for a tie at the buzzer.
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And in the end, you have a sort of flawed team (that defense) that is for the most part better than expected, and maybe better than the players it has, but after zenith landed with a thud. Like in the preseason, if I told OSU fans they'd be borderline top-10, great offense, top 2-3 seed, fifth in the conference, they'd take it. And if I told them that on Jan 20 they'd take it (maybe as late as right before the Iowa game?). But because of the timing, it feels just much worse.
This is a very fair point. In the preseason I certainly was NOT expecting tOSU to be a top-4 seed.
My breakdown of the season is slightly different:
- 8-3 / 2-3 in first 11 games through January 3. In retrospect none of the OOC wins were terribly impressive and the first five league games were not either with home wins over RU and UNL and road losses to PU, NU, and MN.
- 10-1 from January 9 to February 18. This was an incredible run with a multitude of impressive wins and the only loss was a one possession deal to PU.
- 0-4 since February 18. On one hand none of these were truly bad losses: Only IA was by more than five points and three were to top-10 teams with the other to a Tom Izzo team that appears to be rounding into tournament shape. OTOH, they won tougher games in that 10-1 stretch.
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Last four games of the regular season today.
A little bit of everything on the docket. Do you want the slugfest between two ranked opponents? #5 Iowa hosts #25 Wisconsin. Do you prefer the "throw out the records" in-state rivalries? The Wolverines head to E Lansing. Are you in the mood for the hilariously bad pillow fight between two cellar dwellers? The Huskers head to Evanston to battle it out for the "Real NU." Is the potential of a catastrophic upset what tickles your fancy? The Leos head on over to Maryland.
How wacky would the brackets get if all four games end in upsets?
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Big Sky bracket
Wednesday, March 10
Game 1
No. 9 Sacramento State vs. No. 8 Northern Colorado – 9 a.m. MT
Game 2
No. 10 Northern Arizona vs. No. 7 Portland State – 12 p.m. MT
Game 3
No. 11 Idaho vs. No. 6 Montana – 3 p.m. MT
Thursday, March 11
Game 4
No. 1 Southern Utah vs. Game 1 Winner – 11 a.m. MT
Game 5
No. 5 Montana State vs. No. 4 Idaho State – 2 p.m. MT
Game 6
No. 2 Eastern Washington vs. Game 2 Winner – 5 p.m. MT
Game 7
No. 3 Weber State vs. Game 3 Winner – 8 p.m. MT
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Holman era at Ohio State so far:
2017/2018:
- 24-7/15-3 regular season.
- 2nd place in B1G, 1 game out of first.
- One-and-done in BTT, lost to 7th place PSU.
- NCAA 2nd round. #5 seed beat #12, lost to #4.
- Final KenPom, 16.
2018/2019:
- 18-13/8-12 regular season.
- 8th/9th place in B1G, 8 games out of first.
- 1-1 in BTT, beat 8/9 IU, lost to 1/2 MSU.
- NCAA 2nd round. #11 seed beat #6, lost to #3.
- Final KenPom, 42.
2019/2020:
- 21-10/11-9 regular season.
- 5th/6th/7th/8th place in B1G, 3 games out of first.
- BTT canceled.
- NCAA canceled.
- Final KenPom, 8.
2020/2021:
- 18-8/12-8 regular season.
- 5th place in B1G, 3.5 or 4.5 games out of first.
- BTT TBD
- NCAA TBD
- Final KenPom TBD, current 7.
Edited to add final KenPom courtesy of @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572)
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Holman era at Ohio State so far:
2017/2018:
- 24-7/15-3 regular season.
- 2nd place in B1G, 1 game out of first.
- One-and-done in BTT, lost to 7th place PSU.
- NCAA 2nd round. #5 seed beat #12, lost to #4.
2018/2019:
- 18-13/8-12 regular season.
- 8th/9th place in B1G, 8 games out of first.
- 1-1 in BTT, beat 8/9 IU, lost to 1/2 MSU.
- NCAA 2nd round. #11 seed beat #6, lost to #3.
2019/2020:
- 21-10/11-9 regular season.
- 5th/6th/7th/8th place in B1G, 3 games out of first.
- BTT canceled.
- NCAA canceled.
2020/2021:
- 18-8/12-8 regular season.
- 5th place in B1G, 3.5 or 4.5 games out of first.
- BTT TBD
- NCAA TBD
KenPom final ranks:
18: 16
19: 42
20: 8
21: currently 7
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Joe Wieskamp hurt his ankle for the Hawkeyes, which would be a big blow if it is a serious injury
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good game in Iowa City
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Huge energy building in Wisconsin - Iowa, so the refs made sure to snuff it out by looking at the monitor for five minutes
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Pretty weak foul call to end the game for Trice there.
... but I'll take it.
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A very ref oriented ending there
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https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1368648483331141634?s=19
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refs gotta protect those top seeds for march madness
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Very this year-type game for UW. Showed grit, competitive right to the end. UW has played pretty well the past two games. A bucket here, call there. I bet if Brad Davison throws up a 3 like Bohannon did, it's coming back on a flop warning, but that's me being petty.
In any case, just a weird, weird year UW has played gritty in a lot of games. Dropped a few it shouldn't managed to not have one big upset. It's still a top-15 KenPom team and I think has the ability to be dangerous. But the wins have been so hard to snatch. Such is life, I suppose. There's a roster reset coming, so you enter a new era of sorts.
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Update: Wisconsin's Greg Gard unloads on the hook and hold, Big Ten refs, the extra close eyes on Davison.
UW fans have been calling on him to work the refs more, which is often kinda silly. But he had some strong, strong words today. Teammates backed Davison too. So at least there's some fire there.
(I usually don't talk officiating. I think there were a couple calls that I'd deem, "unnecessary" down the stretch. Like, they were on the light side and the sort I would say you don't call down the stretch of a tight game like that. Combine that with not looking at a shoulder to the face in that final minute, and I just felt like the chance for a better finish was taken out of play)
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NOt confirmed, but the UM-MSU ref had to be French, the way he let the German Wagner do whatever he wanted without repercussion in the final minute.
ONe non call shove led to an MSU three, and the other uncalled shove led to a missed UM three. So, much like France, the good guys bailed him out in the end.
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They really should make Illinois co-champs
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They really should make Illinois co-champs
They are a half game ahead in the standings
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MSU has 3 AP Top 5 wins in the past 2 weeks.
Nobody else in the country has more than 1 all season
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They also *ALMOST* pulled within 20 spots of Penn State in KenPom
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If MSU wins the 8/9 game on Thursday then they will play Michigan on Friday. It will be Michigan's third straight game against MSU and MSU's third game out of four against Michigan.
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They really should make Illinois co-champs
Subscribe
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They really should make Michigan play the road game at Illinois that they opted out of for no reason
FIFY
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I dont think that is true ELA. I dont think Illinois was ever to host Michigan. Michigan just delayed their home game where Illinois beat them by 20+.
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Michigan is not playing at PSU and games against Indiana and Northwestern, if I recall correctly.
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Final:
- 14-3 Michigan
- 16-4 Illinois
- 14-6 Iowa
- 13-6 Purdue
- 12-8 Ohio State
- 10-10 Wisconsin (wins tie with RU based on H2H)
- 10-10 Rutgers
- 9-11 Maryland (wins tie with MSU based on H2H, not that it matters because they are in the 8/9 game anyway so the tiebreaker just determines jersey color)
- 9-11 Michigan State
- 7-12 Indiana (wins tie with PSU based on H2H)
- 7-12 Penn State
- 6-13 Northwestern
- 6-14 Minnesota
- 3-16 Nebraska
Wednesday:
- #11 Penn State va #14 Nebraska, 9pm on BTN
- #12 Northwestern vs #13 Minnesota, 630pm on BTN
Thursday :
- #5 Ohio State vs NU/MN, 2pm on BTN
- #6 Wisconsin vs PSU/UNL, 9pm on BTN
- #7 Rutgers vs #10 Indiana, 630pm on BTN
- #8 Maryland vs #9 Michigan State, 1130am on BTN
Friday:
- #1 Michigan vs UMD/MSU, 1130am on BTN
- #2 Illinois vs RU/IU, 630pm on BTN
- #3 Iowa vs UW/PSU/UNL, 9pm on BTN
- #4 Purdue vs tOSU/NU/MN, 2pm on BTN
Saturday:
- M/UMD/MSU vs PU/tOSU/NU/MN, 1pm on CBS
- IL/RU/IU vs IA/UW/PSU/UNL, 330 on CBS
Sunday:
- M/UMD/MSU/PU/tOSU/NU/MN vs IL/RU/IU/IA/UW/PSU/UNL, 330pm on CBS
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ev7LWevWEAgkmtk?format=jpg&name=medium)
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I'd like to beat Maryland, to secure being safely out of the First Four, and then I'd be good to be done after that, and get rested up
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@ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , I miss the BTT game that you used to run. If you were running it this year I think I'd be leaning toward Northwestern's and Penn State's leading scorers.
My theory for Northwestern is that Minnesota seems to be in melt-down mode so they should get at least two games and Ohio State has lost four straight while Northwestern has been pretty good lately so it is entirely possible that Northwestern could play three games (MN, tOSU, PU) and who knows, with that momentum they just might knock off the Boilermakers and get four games.
My theory for Penn State is that they have an easy first game so, IMHO, they have the greatest likelihood to play at least two games and a single upset (UW) would get them three (UNL, UW, IA). Anything after that would just be gravy.
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Top seeded mid majors dropping like flies. Not sure if that's just a continuation of a chaotic year, or a bunch of flukey results that are going to lead to some really bad lower seeds in the tournament.
Would have also led to a very mid major heavy NIT had they not abandoned the regular season champ AQ rule for this year
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Am I the only one who didn’t realize the NCAA Tournament schedule this year was different? Instead of the first four days being Thursday-Sunday this year they are Friday-Monday. Then, the Sweet 16/Elite 8 games are being played Saturday-Tuesday.
I had already set my schedule around Thursday and Friday of next week. I might have to call an audible.
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Yeah, I mentioned that last week. I have no idea why it has changed for this year.
I'm not what you'd call a traditionalist, but it seems to me there was a certain perfection in the old schedule. The goal for teams is to make it to the S16 and then to the F4. Making it into the R32 or E8 are both great, because you've won a game, of course. But the two biggies are S16 and F4.
On Thursday/Friday you were fighting to make it to the weekend and then Sat/Sun you were fighting to make it to the next weekend. R64 is to be honest supposed to weed out the pretenders while giving you the occasional "WTF?!" upset, but R32 being on the weekend when people are off work was perfect to see who makes it to the S16.
I'm just hoping Purdue will be in the Fri/Sun schedule for the first rounds. Something would just be weird about them [hopefully] making it to the R32 and then watching it on a Monday.
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It throws off the whole Thirsty 32.
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Yeah, I mentioned that last week. I have no idea why it has changed for this year.
I'm not what you'd call a traditionalist, but it seems to me there was a certain perfection in the old schedule. The goal for teams is to make it to the S16 and then to the F4. Making it into the R32 or E8 are both great, because you've won a game, of course. But the two biggies are S16 and F4.
On Thursday/Friday you were fighting to make it to the weekend and then Sat/Sun you were fighting to make it to the next weekend. R64 is to be honest supposed to weed out the pretenders while giving you the occasional "WTF?!" upset, but R32 being on the weekend when people are off work was perfect to see who makes it to the S16.
I'm just hoping Purdue will be in the Fri/Sun schedule for the first rounds. Something would just be weird about them [hopefully] making it to the R32 and then watching it on a Monday.
I'm of the opposite opinion just for watchability reasons:
- R64 is 32 games, 16 per day, 4 per site.
- R32 is 16 games, 8 per day, 2 per site.
- S16 is 8 games, 4 per day, 2 per site.
- E8 is 4 games, 2 per day, 1 per site.
- F4 is 2 games, 2 per day, 2 per site.
- NC is 1 game, 1 per day, 1 per site.
The busiest two days are the first two (R64) with 16 games per day. By playing that on Thursday/Friday I think they lose a lot of viewers. I'm at work. I usually watch a bunch in the evenings but that is in. If that were Saturday/Sunday I would probably spend all day watching BB.
Even the second weekend, the S16 is four games per day, they can't get those all in prime-time. Some are necessarily during the workday. Again, if that were Sat/Sun, I'd probably watch all eight games but with it being during the week I usually only see the four that are after work.
It would be better for me as a fan but also I think they would make more cash because they'd have more viewers.
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I get that, but to me the R32 and E8 games are more meaningful and interesting than the R64 and S16 games... They deserve more of a showcase, and it's harder to showcase on the weekday.
For the R64, I think you may underestimate the number of people who turn those two days into a "long weekend", either officially or not. Businesses say that productivity on those two days hits the floor. I don't know that you'll see those same people taking Monday off [officially or unofficially] at the start of a new week to watch R32 games. I know I'll be working, but since I WFH the TV will certainly be on while I am.
I could maybe understand the S16 being on the weekend and the E8 being Mon/Tues, because you can play the entire E8 in prime time. But it certainly seems less special than being on the weekend, to me.
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I’m much more likely to take a Thursday-Sunday 4 day weekend than Friday-Monday. I can’t really even pinpoint a reason why. There’s just something about a new week and hitting the ground running, blah, blah, blah. Idk. Typically, not even with just the NCAA Tournament, if I’m going to extend a weekend I get it started early as opposed to keeping it going on the back end.
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I can't figure out if the move is related to logistics from every game being in Indiana, or their obsession with putting things on Mondays. I hate it.
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I still don't understand why anyone would have put the damn CFB NCG on a Monday?!
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I’m much more likely to take a Thursday-Sunday 4 day weekend than Friday-Monday. I can’t really even pinpoint a reason why. There’s just something about a new week and hitting the ground running, blah, blah, blah. Idk. Typically, not even with just the NCAA Tournament, if I’m going to extend a weekend I get it started early as opposed to keeping it going on the back end.
No way. The Friday-Monday combo is a veteran move. That way you have a short week, followed by a four day weekend, then another short week. Stretches the benefits of two vacation days to like half a month.
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No way. The Friday-Monday combo is a veteran move. That way you have a short week, followed by a four day weekend, then another short week. Stretches the benefits of two vacation days to like half a month.
Nah, I get that logic and I’ve done it a few times but Monday just has a different feel to it. If it’s a holiday weekend like Memorial Day or Labor Day I’ll gladly take Friday off and stretch it into a 4 day weekend, but I hate burning a vacation day on a Monday. If you go somewhere Monday is the travel day back. So, it’s not like you are doing anything enjoyable and then you know you have the rest of the work week still in front of you.
The times I’ve taken a Monday off for a long weekend I always kinda wished I just went ahead and worked.
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Last look at this with the BTT starting tomorrow but I thought a few things were interesting:
(https://i.imgur.com/vQMBeIu.png)
The two teams that jump out to me are Minnesota and Wisconsin and for the exact opposite reason.
Minnesota:
Look at their record against seven teams that finished .500 or better (M, IL, IA, PU, tOSU, UW, RU). They were 4-8 or .333. That isn't great but it is about the same as three of the four teams that finished 10-10 or 9-11 (Wisconsin is excluded, see below, Rutgers was 2-6 or .250, Maryland was 4-7 or .364 and MSU was 4-8 or .333 same as MN). Based on how well they performed against the better half of the conference, Minnesota should have roughly a .500 league record and they should be on the bubble. They aren't because the Gophers were actually worse against the bottom half of the conference than they were against the top half. The only other school to do that was Michigan but that was mostly a sample-size issue because they only had three losses and two of them were to bottom-half teams (MN, MSU).
It is just odd that the Gophers were good enough to beat Michigan, Iowa, Purdue, and Ohio State and yet bad enough to lose to Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, and Indiana.
Wisconsin:
The Badgers were the exact opposite. They were great against the bottom half of the conference. They went 9-2 against the seven teams that finished below .500. That is third best in the league and only 1/2 a game behind Illinois and Purdue (both 10-2). Based on their ability to dominate the lesser teams in the league, Wisconsin should be in the top-4 and not playing until Friday but it didn't work out that way because they were dreadful against the top half. They were:
- 0-2 against Michigan
- 0-2 against Illinois
- 0-2 against Iowa
- 0-1 at Purdue
- 0-1 against Ohio State at home
- 1-0 at Rutgers
The Badgers were 0-8 against teams that finished ahead of them in the standings as their only win over a team that finished .500 or better was against the 10-10 Scarlet Knights.
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Nah, I get that logic and I’ve done it a few times but Monday just has a different feel to it. If it’s a holiday weekend like Memorial Day or Labor Day I’ll gladly take Friday off and stretch it into a 4 day weekend, but I hate burning a vacation day on a Monday. If you go somewhere Monday is the travel day back. So, it’s not like you are doing anything enjoyable and then you know you have the rest of the work week still in front of you.
The times I’ve taken a Monday off for a long weekend I always kinda wished I just went ahead and worked.
NERD!
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Nah, I get that logic and I’ve done it a few times but Monday just has a different feel to it. If it’s a holiday weekend like Memorial Day or Labor Day I’ll gladly take Friday off and stretch it into a 4 day weekend, but I hate burning a vacation day on a Monday. If you go somewhere Monday is the travel day back. So, it’s not like you are doing anything enjoyable and then you know you have the rest of the work week still in front of you.
The times I’ve taken a Monday off for a long weekend I always kinda wished I just went ahead and worked.
I agree with you as far as enjoyment of the vacation day. But I think that is evened out with only having a four day week when it's over
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No way. The Friday-Monday combo is a veteran move. That way you have a short week, followed by a four day weekend, then another short week. Stretches the benefits of two vacation days to like half a month.
Actually for me, if I take vacation on Friday and Monday, I have to include Saturday and Sunday so that would be four days of vacation instead of two.
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I was all excited to take Thursday off. Now I want to take Friday off, but my job loads that up with meetings.
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A little more on odd records:
(https://i.imgur.com/whW6C7X.png)
What I have done here is ranked all 14 B1G teams by their winning percentage against the top half of the teams in the league (those .500 and better, M, IL, IA, PU, tOSU, UW, RU) in the "Rk vs .500" column and then ranked them all again based on their winning percentage against the bottom half of the league (those under .500, UMD, MSU, IU, PSU, NU, MN, UNL) in the "Rk vs >.500" (should be <.500) column. Note that ties are scored as the average of the rank that the teams are tied for:
- MN and MSU are tied for 7/8 against the .500+ so both got 7.5
- IU and PSU are tied for 10/11 against the .500+ so both got 10.5
- IL and PU are tied for 1/2 against the <.500 so both got 1.5
- MSU, IU, and PSU are tied for 9/10/11 against the <.500 so all three got 10
Finally, the "Difference" column is the difference between the two rankings.
Unsurprisingly, most teams that are relatively very good against the top half are also relatively good against the bottom half. For example, Illinois is tied for 1/2 against the bottom half and second against the top half. Similarly, most teams that are relatively bad against the top half are also relatively bad against the bottom half. For example, Nebraska is 14th against the bottom half and 12th against the top half.
Half of our teams (MSU through PSU above) fall within 2.5 ranking places against the top and bottom halves of the conference. Another three (PU, M, tOSU) fall within 3-3.5 ranking places against the top and bottom halves and that is still reasonably close. The odd ones are the top four on the list above:
Wisconsin, 13th against the top half, 3rd against the bottom half:
As presented upthread, the Badgers were extremely good against the bottom half of the league, trailing only IL and PU but extremely bad against the top half of the league, better than only Northwestern.
Northwestern, 14th against the top half, 6th against the bottom half:
The Wildcats were surprisingly good against their peers in the bottom half of the league but flat awful against the top half. Northwestern was actually 5-2 (.714) against the bottom half of the league, they were:
- 1-0 against Maryland (home)
- 1-0 against Michigan State (home)
- 1-1 against Indiana
- 0-1 against Penn State (away)
- 1-0 against Minnesota (away)
- 1-0 against Nebraska (home)
That is a very good record even against those teams. In the rankings it falls right between Iowa (8-3 or .727) and Ohio State (7-3 or .700). Iowa and Ohio State are tournament locks while Northwestern's only chance is to win the BTT. That is because while Northwestern was just as good against the bottom half as Iowa and Ohio State, the Wildcats were dreadful against the top half. They split with the Buckeyes but went 0-10 against the rest of the teams that finished 10-10 or better.
Maryland, 6th against the top half, 12th against the bottom half:
The Terps were reasonably good against the top half of the league, going 4-7 or .364. That is just behind Purdue (3-4 or .429) and just ahead of Minnesota and Michigan State (both 4-8 or .333). Their problem was that they didn't back that up by taking care of the teams that they should have beaten. They were only 5-4 or .556 against the bottom half of the league. That is just behind MSU, IU, and PSU (all 5-3 or .625) and ahead of Minnesota (2-6 or .250).
Minnesota, tied with MSU for 7/8 against the top half, 13th against the bottom half:
As presented upthread, the Gophers were respectable against the top half of the league. Their record of 4-8 or .333 was tied with Michigan State just behind Maryland (4-7 or .364) and just ahead of Rutgers (2-6 or .250). Michigan State, Maryland, and Rutgers are all at least bubble teams while Minnesota's only chance at the NCAA would be to win the BTT. Their problem was that they were flat awful against their peers in the bottom half of the conference. Their record against the top half was actually better than their record against the bottom half (2-6 or .250). Thus, a team with great quality wins over Michigan, Iowa, Purdue, and Ohio State will miss the tournament. It is because they also have losses to Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, and Indiana.
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Tonight's games:
9-14/6-13 #12 Northwestern vs 13-14/6-14 #13 Minnesota, 6:30pm, BTN:
On February 8th and 11th the Gophers won back-to-back home games against Nebraska and Purdue to move to 13-7/6-7 and a spot on the bubble. Since then they have lost seven straight and that is not solely because the competition stiffened or the venue moved from home to away. Within their current skid are three home losses (IL, NU, RU) and, of the seven teams they have lost to, only Illinois is better than Purdue.
Northwestern's path to #12 has been unusual. They won their first three league games including two wins over ranked (at the time) teams so just before NYE they were 3-0 and in first place in the B1G. Then they lost 13 straight to drop to 6-14/3-13 in late February. At that point it appeared that the only question for Northwestern was whether they or Nebraska would finish in the league's cellar. Then they won three straight including a win over Minnesota in Minneapolis and a nice win over bubble team Maryland at home.
This game seems to pit Northwestern's strength (beating bad teams) against Minnesota's weakness (losing to bad teams) so I like the Wildcats.
In the prior meeting (only one this year) the Wildcats won by a dozen in Minneapolis. The Gophers did lead by 14 due to holding the Wildcats to an anemic three points in more than eight minutes of play from tip-off until 11:44 to play (that is on pace to score just 15 in the entire game). After that the Wildcats caught up and the game was fairly competitive most of the way until the Wildcats pulled away at the end.
The winner will find 18-8/12-8 #5 Ohio State waiting for them tomorrow.
10-13/7-12 #11 Penn State vs 7-19/3-16 #14 Nebraska, 9pm, BTN:
Penn State comes into this having won two straight and three out of four but Nebraska has won two of their last four as well which is remarkable when you consider that they only won three league games all year and two of them were within the last four. Both teams may be playing above where they were earlier in the season but Penn State started out higher and should win.
The teams met twice in the regular season with each team winning by a single possession (one and three points) on the other teams' home floor.
On February 14 Nebraska led nearly the entire second half in State College before a furious PSU comeback put the Nittany Lions briefly on top but Nebraska scored with 12 seconds remaining to eek out a 62-61 win. Penn State's nearly successful comeback is remarkable. With nearly nine minutes remaining the Cornhuskers led 60-49 and appeared to be cruising for an easy win. They didn't score again until they got the aforementioned go-ahead bucket with 12 seconds left. In the intervening eight and a half minutes the Nittany Lions outscored the Cornhuskers 12-0 to take a 61-60 lead.
Just over a week later on February 23 the teams played again, this time in Lincoln. This game was competitive throughout with neither team able to break free of the other and Nebraska missed a three near the buzzer that would likely have sent the game to OT if it had been made. PSU hung on for the 86-83 win.
The winner will find 16-11/10-10 #6 Wisconsin waiting for them tomorrow.
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a win for Hoiberg's huskers would give them a bit more hope for next season
they could use more hope
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a win for Hoiberg's huskers would give them a bit more hope for next season
they could use more hope
Let's just get him through a game without looking like he's going to die on the bench. Baby steps
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that was almost a year ago, hopefully he's healthy
but, I gotta agree
with his close view of how poorly his team plays, it's a wonder he has survived
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First dribbles of Nebraska hoops I've seen all year.
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First dribbles of Nebraska hoops I've seen all year.
Did you watch enough Marquette to know what's up with Carton. That's a weird one.
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Top 2 seeds in the MAAC went down tonight. The last place team in the Patriot is now in the title game. Anecdotally, I can't remember this many mid and low major top seeds going down early. The caliber of the 13-16 seeds, on paper, is worse than normal.
Or this is just a preview of how not chalk the NCAA tourney is going to be
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First dribbles of Nebraska hoops I've seen all year.
I see the NBA "travelling" rules have made their way to college?
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And Bo Borowski decides to start doing Bo Borowski things
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Did you watch enough Marquette to know what's up with Carton. That's a weird one.
I watched about 2.3 total Marquette games this season. They could have been 18-2 and it wouldn't have changed my viewing habits. I'm a total cliff's notes fan of hoops. I know that guy dunks a lot, that's about all I know. Think he is the osu transfer.
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Top 2 seeds in the MAAC went down tonight. The last place team in the Patriot is now in the title game. Anecdotally, I can't remember this many mid and low major top seeds going down early. The caliber of the 13-16 seeds, on paper, is worse than normal.
Or this is just a preview of how not chalk the NCAA tourney is going to be
As Medina likes to point out, those 16 teams aren't winning often anyway, so maybe we get 16-0. Just wait and see, I suppose.
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I think this is the first time I've seen PSU since I watched that 14-13 type game they had w UW.
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And Bo Borowski decides to start doing Bo Borowski things
How is everyone else feeling about him? He's become a damn thing with UW fandom.
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I watched about 2.3 total Marquette games this season. They could have been 18-2 and it wouldn't have changed my viewing habits. I'm a total cliff's notes fan of hoops. I know that guy dunks a lot, that's about all I know. Think he is the osu transfer.
He was very talented and really good at some stuff at OSU. I thought he'd step in and just run things.
He managed to be inefficient and not particularly high-scoring. There were issues with Howard, but he was very efficent for how much he shot.
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And then there were twelve.
Congratulations Minnesota and Penn State.
Goodbye Nebraska and Northwestern.
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How is everyone else feeling about him? He's become a damn thing with UW fandom.
It seems like he has replaced Eaves, who replaced Valentine, who replaced Hightower, as the most hated
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He was very talented and really good at some stuff at OSU. I thought he'd step in and just run things.
He managed to be inefficient and not particularly high-scoring. There were issues with Howard, but he was very efficent for how much he shot.
Haven't gotten to watch much Marquette this year. Looks like the biggest difference is he shot 40% from three for OSU, and that dropped to 28% at Marquette on double the shots. Which when you look at the raw numbers, he's made 9 more three pointers this year compared to last on 57 more attempts. That ain't great.
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Haven't gotten to watch much Marquette this year. Looks like the biggest difference is he shot 40% from three for OSU, and that dropped to 28% at Marquette on double the shots. Which when you look at the raw numbers, he's made 9 more three pointers this year compared to last on 57 more attempts. That ain't great.
Yeah. 28 percent from 3. It's weird because he went up to 57 percent from 2 as one of the top options. And he's still not got the turnovers under control.
He was a dude UW really wanted and I thought would torment the Big Ten for at least one year before trying the pros.
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On tap today:
15-12/9-11 #8 Maryland vs 15-11/9-11 #9 Michigan State, 11:30am, BTN:
In the only prior meeting, less than two weeks ago, the Terps jumped out to an early lead and never looked back, leading the entire way and winning by 18, 73-55 in College Park. To be fair to the Spartans, this was during the "catch-up" phase of their schedule when they were playing games at a blistering pace and they may have simply been exhausted. Over their last seven games, the Spartans went 5-2 including wins over #2 Michigan, #4 Ohio State, and #5 Illinois. Their only losses over that stretch were the loss at Maryland and a loss at Michigan. In their own last seven games the Terps won five straight to start looking solidly like a tournament team but then lost back-to-back games to two of the league's worst teams (NU, PSU) to finish back on the bubble.
The winner will find 19-3/14-3 #1 Michigan waiting for them at 11:30 tomorrow.
18-8/12-8 #5 Ohio State vs 14-14/6-14 #13 Minnesota, 2pm, BTN:
In the only prior meeting on January 3 the Gophers led nearly the entire game and won by 17, 77-60 in Minneapolis. The Buckeyes enter this game on a four game losing streak so that obviously is not good. On the other hand, three of the four losses were to AP top-10 teams (M, IA, IL) and the fourth was to a surging Michigan State so maybe softer opposition is what the Buckeyes need. Minnesota entered the BTT looking listless after a seven-game losing streak but beat Northwestern last night so who knows.
The winner will find 18-8/13-6 #4 Purdue waiting for them at 2 tomorrow.
14-10/10-10 #7 Rutgers vs 12-14/7-12 #10 Indiana, 630pm, BTN:
These two teams met twice previously with Rutgers winning both. The Scarlet Knights won 74-70 in Bloomington on January 24 and 74-63 in Piscataway exactly a month later. Rutgers is on a bit of a skid having lost three of their last five including a bad loss to Nebraska while Indiana has lost five straight and six out of seven.
The winner will find 20-6/16-4 #2 Illinois waiting for them at 630 tomorrow.
16-11/10-10 #6 Wisconsin vs 11-13/7-12 #11 Penn State, 9pm, BTN:
Due to various COVID issues, these two teams played twice within four days on January 30 and February 2. Each team won their home game with PSU winning 81-71 in Happy Valley and UW winning 72-56 in Madison. Wisconsin enters this contest on a troubling skid having lost three straight, five out of six although all of those losses were to highly ranked opponents (M, IA, IL, PU, IA). Penn State appears to be surging having won three straight and four out of five although their opponents haven't been nearly as tough as Wisconsin's recent opponents.
The winner will find 20-7/14-6 #3 Iowa waiting for them at 9 tomorrow.
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I'm skittish because OSU has been getting by Minnesota lately, but I also see a couple guys that killed us in the first game may be out.
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Duke dropping out of the ACC for COVID
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Duke dropping out of the ACC for COVID
That should end that streak, I guess.
MSU’s rally has been impressive.
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That should end that streak, I guess.
MSU’s rally has been impressive.
Nah, they picked up their one upset win yesterday. So now, still needing three more, they can claim this doesn't count, because they didn't get a chance to finish
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Current NCAA Tournament appearance streaks:
- #1 Kansas, #1 all-time, 1990-present, 30 straight, will extend.
- #2 DOOK, #3 all-time, 1996-present, 24 straight, will end.
- #3 Michigan State, #4 all-time, 1998-present, 22 straight, will likely extend.
- #4 Gonzaga, #5 all-time, 1999-present, 22 straight, will extend.
- #5 Cincinnati, 9 straight, possibly ending.
- #5 North Carolina, 9 straight, will extend.
- #7 Villanova, 7 straight, will extend.
- #8 Kentucky, 6 straight, likely to end.
- #8 Virginia, 6 straight, will extend.
- #10 Purdue, 5 straight, will extend.
Purdue may move as high as #7 (DOOK, Cincy, and Kentucky all missing).
Michigan State needs two more to tie DOOK for the 3rd longest all-time streak and five more to tie UNC for the second longest all-time streak.
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Good thing there wasn't a tournament last year, because Purdue needed a couple really difficult wins in the BTT to keep their streak alive.
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Nah, they picked up their one upset win yesterday. So now, still needing three more, they can claim this doesn't count, because they didn't get a chance to finish
Yesterday?
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To borrow a turn of phrase from an old boss with very salty language, Maryland is just out here shitting all over the floor
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Yesterday?
Yeah, they upset Louisville yesterday
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I miss mcws take on how bad Maryland is getting screwed by the refs in a game where they are 4-17 from the field, but have a 14-2 advantage in FTA
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Yeah, they upset Louisville yesterday
Ahh. I thought you were referencing MSU and got real turned around.
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Fully aware of everything, that was the worst 10 minutes of basketball I've seen out of Michigan State all season. their offense consisted of swinging the ball around the outside and trying to jack up threes.
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I think I saw MSU is 1-6 when Borowski officiates, 14-5 when he doesn't.
Trending towards 1-7
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https://twitter.com/BigTenNetwork/status/1370060631949209600?s=19
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Not that you deserve to get to the free throw line when you're offense is consisting of swinging the ball around the perimeter with zero movement.
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I think I saw MSU is 1-6 when Borowski officiates, 14-5 when he doesn't.
Trending towards 1-7
UW is like 14-2/2-9 or something like that
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Maryland can probably win without scoring again. They may have been able to win without scoring it all in the second half
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Duke dropping out of the ACC for COVID
Now they are saying their season is over. Anyone think they would have done this if they were 22-2 and looking at a top 2 seed? I am sure they can field five healthy players next week.
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Dook is a sham program.
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Where does this leave MSU and their streak?
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OSU makes more interesting than necessary
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OSU makes more interesting than necessary
Crazy, I saw they were comfortably ahead and next time I checked they were in a dogfight.
I looked and they went from up 14 with 3 to go to up one in the closing seconds.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwOqqdZW8AULbQd?format=jpg&name=small)
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Hope that took the legs out of them before tomorrow morning...
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Hope that took the legs out of them before tomorrow morning...
Just a good warm-up to work the kinks out and be fully prepared for tomorrow's game ;)
In all seriousness, I remember looking into this a number of years ago and most teams did tend to perform best in their second game. Basically our theory was:
- Rusty, getting acclimated in game 1.
- Top of game in game 2.
- Tired in game 3.
- Really tired in game 4.
Back in the 11-team tournaments we found that the best performing team relative to seed was #6. They had the perfect situation:
Game one was against the worst team in the league and usually out of 11 teams one of them is just awful so game one was almost always a cake walk. In all the years of 11 team Big11Ten tournaments, #11 only beat #6 once.
Game two was against a better, but not too much better opponent in the #3 seed.
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I wonder... What does the 4/5 matchup look like historically?
Obviously those two teams should be as close to evenly matched as nearly any other in the tournament, but the 5 has a game under their belt while the 4 does not.
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I wonder... What does the 4/5 matchup look like historically?
Obviously those two teams should be as close to evenly matched as nearly any other in the tournament, but the 5 has a game under their belt while the 4 does not.
Well . . . that hasn't happened the way I thought it would based on #6's dominance of #3 in the old set up.
- 2019: didn't happen, #5 Maryland lost to #13 Nebraska.
- 2018: #5 Michigan beat #4 Nebraska and won the whole tournament.
- 2017: #5 Michigan State lost to #4 Minnesota.
- 2016: didn't happen, #5 Iowa lost #12 Illinois.
- 2015: didn't happen, #5 Iowa lost to #13 Penn State.
12 team tournaments (so #5 played #12 on Thursday)
- 2014: #5 Ohio State beat #4 Nebraska.
- 2013: #5 Michigan lost to #4 Wisconsin.
- 2012: #5 Indiana lost to #4 Wisconsin.
Since we expanded to 12 and then 14 teams the #5 has advanced to play #4 five times with #4 holding a 3-2 lead.
Note that when #5 was playing the worst team in the league on Thursday they went 3-0 against #12 and 1-2 against #4 on Friday.
Since expanding to 14, the #5 has had a better opponent and has gone 3-3 against the 12/13 winner on Thursday (including #5 Ohio State's win over #13 today) then 1-2 against #4 on Friday.
This surprised me because #6 was well over .500 against #3 in the old 11-team tournaments. I'm not sure why but I'll throw out two guesses:
- #6 in the 11-team tournaments opened with the worst team in the league and it was the opener for both teams so #6 was rarely pushed in their Thursday opener. Now #5 opens with a better team that already had their opener the day before, it is a much tougher and more draining game.
- Maybe it was just easier for #3 to overlook #6 than it is for #4 to overlook #5?
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5 games is a pretty small sample size, so it's probably no use trying to draw conclusions or a narrative from it, especially if it's a narrow 3-2 advantage to the higher seed.
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What was the series in the 11 team 4-5 game on equal rest? It might all just be a small sample size nothing.
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5 games is a pretty small sample size, so it's probably no use trying to draw conclusions or a narrative from it, especially if it's a narrow 3-2 advantage to the higher seed.
I know I went to Indy a couple times to watch UW take back-to-back 4-5 losses.
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What was the worst seed to win the Tournament?
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What was the worst seed to win the Tournament?
I do not recall offhand but I do remember that Illinois was the only #11 seed to ever win a game back during the Big11Ten era and they won three, advancing all the way to the CG before losing.
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The Wolverines won it as an 8 seed in 2017.
(https://progressmichigan.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/homer-simpson-doh1.gif)
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In fact the Wolverines have three of the bottom four seeds to win it all.
Their 8 seed is the record in 2017
Iowa won it as a 6 seed in 2002
Michigan won it as a 5 seed in 2018
and Michigan won the inaugural BTT as a 4 seed in 1998
Every other time the champion has been a 3 or better.
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Ok, found it, here is the B1G media guide which has all the tournament history. Where applicable I'm including vacated results because we care here how the seeds performed not whether or not they subsequently had to vacate the win.
Link:
https://bigten.org/documents/2020/11/9//2020_21_Media_Guide.pdf?id=6836
The Big11Ten Tournament started in 1998 and continued as an 11-team tournament for 14 years from 1998-2011. In those 14 years:
- #6 went 13-1 against #11 - This makes sense because the worst team in the league is typically terrible.
- #6 went 8-5 against #3 - This is the stand-out stat because #3 is a better team and should win most of the time.
- #4 and #5 went 7-7 against each other.
The sample size issue is very real. In the 4/5 game:
- #4 won the first five (1998-2002) then
- #5 won five straight (2003-2007) then
- #4 won one (2008) then
- #5 won two (2009-10) then
- #4 won the last one on equal rest (2011)
And the other question was lowest seed to win it:
That would be #6 Iowa in 2001 in Chicago, they:
- Beat #11 Northwestern 72-55 on Thursday, then
- Beat #3 Ohio State 75-66 on Friday, then
- Beat #7 Penn State 94-74 on Saturday, then
- Beat #4 Indiana in the CG on Sunday.
That was an odd year because both #2 Michigan State and #3 Ohio State lost their openers on Thursday. That cleared a path for the Hawkeyes then #4 Indiana took out #1 Illinois in the other semi-final which gave the Hawkeyes a very unusually easy path to the Championship. I'm not knocking Iowa, they still had to take advantage and they did but 11-3-7-4 is a remarkably light path.
Seeds below #6 to make the CG:
- #11 Illinois in 1999 lost to #1 MSU.
- #9 Iowa in 2002 lost to #2 tOSU.
- #8 Ohio State in 2003 lost to #2 IL.
- #10 Illinois in 2008 lost to #1 UW.
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Wisconsin's lead looks pretty secure and if it holds up, the bracket tomorrow will be 100% chalk.
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And the other question was lowest seed to win it:
That would be #6 Iowa in 2001 in Chicago, they:
- Beat #11 Northwestern 72-55 on Thursday, then
- Beat #3 Ohio State 75-66 on Friday, then
- Beat #7 Penn State 94-74 on Saturday, then
- Beat #4 Indiana in the CG on Sunday.
That was an odd year because both #2 Michigan State and #3 Ohio State lost their openers on Thursday. That cleared a path for the Hawkeyes then #4 Indiana took out #1 Illinois in the other semi-final which gave the Hawkeyes a very unusually easy path to the Championship. I'm not knocking Iowa, they still had to take advantage and they did but 11-3-7-4 is a remarkably light path.
Seeds below #6 to make the CG:
- #11 Illinois in 1999 lost to #1 MSU.
- #9 Iowa in 2002 lost to #2 tOSU.
- #8 Ohio State in 2003 lost to #2 IL.
- #10 Illinois in 2008 lost to #1 UW.
I had searched it out upthread while you were typing this, and it was #8 Michigan in 2017.
They beat #9Illinois in R2
They beat #1Purdue in OT in the quarterfinals.
They beat #4Minnesota in the semifinals.
They beat #2Wisconsin in the final.
Wasn't that the year that their plane crashed en route to the BT BBT?
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Wisconsin's lead looks pretty secure and if it holds up, the bracket tomorrow will be 100% chalk.
Not looking great at the moment.
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I do not recall offhand but I do remember that Illinois was the only #11 seed to ever win a game back during the Big11Ten era and they won three, advancing all the way to the CG before losing.
The semifinal win over OSU was a fantastic game.
For the first 8 tournaments, MSU never had to play a Thursday game, and Illinois never failed to advance to Saturday. Both streaks were broken in the same tournament (2006), when MSU was a 6 seed, and had to play Thursday. Beat #11 Purdue, and then beat #3 Illinois on Friday.
This year is the first in the 24-year history of the tournament that Michigan State is not playing on Friday
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I had searched it out upthread while you were typing this, and it was #8 Michigan in 2017.
They beat #9Illinois in R2
They beat #1Purdue in OT in the quarterfinals.
They beat #4Minnesota in the semifinals.
They beat #2Wisconsin in the final.
I was only looking at the 11-team tournaments so I didn't include #8 Michigan in 2017.
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In the 11-team era most of the league's teams took a turn in the cellar:
- 6 Penn State, 02, 03, 04, 05, 07, 10
- 3 Northwestern, 00, 01, 08
- 2 Indiana, 09, 11
- Ohio State, 98
- Illinois, 99
- Purdue, 06
Since then the teams in the cellar (#12 then #14) have been:
- 4 Rutgers, 15, 16, 17, 18
- 2 Penn State, 12, 13
- 2 Nebraska 20, 21
- Purdue, 14
- Northwestern, 19
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Well, I was wrong. The Badgers won a game. And almost didn't.
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Well, I was wrong. The Badgers won a game. And almost didn't.
I was so relaxed until the last couple possessions. I figured if you can get it to fouling Davison range, you’re probably set. And they just kept flubbing it.
In the plus side, they should only have one “lose and it’s humiliating” game left, barring upsets. So we’re close to the found money portion of the season.
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This fan-less season has brought me more around to this. The caliber of play, the way the game is called, college basketball is not a good product at all anymore. I'll never quit on it, but, and similar to college football, I'm more addicted to the "vibe" and my love for MSU than I am to the product on the court.
https://twitter.com/Graham_Couch/status/1370065774862303235?s=20
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This year is the first in the 24-year history of the tournament that Michigan State is not playing on Friday
Even after considering how good MSU has been over that stretch, that is an amazing run. It is shocking that they managed to either pull or avoid the Thursday upset for 24 straight years, amazing.
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Virginia is out, COVID.
ACC is a mess.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwQNzicXIAIL0xN?format=jpg&name=small)
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Virginia is out, COVID.
ACC is a mess.
They might be ineligible for the NCAA tournament as well. You need 7 days of negative tests before you are allowed to even travel to Indianapolis
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Virginia is out, COVID.
ACC is a mess.
They might be ineligible for the NCAA tournament as well. You need 7 days of negative tests before you are allowed to even travel to Indianapolis
Oh man I was hopeful we were out of the woods for teams in the tourney. Would be crushing to be knocked out that way.
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- Michigan State announces basketball team will now be called 'MSU Spartans Presented by Rocket Mortgage'
- https://sports.yahoo.com/michigan-state-basketball-team-msu-spartans-presented-by-rocket-mortgage-223057968.html?ncid=twitter_yahoosport_dw14wrbb51g
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- Michigan State announces basketball team will now be called 'MSU Spartans Presented by Rocket Mortgage'
- https://sports.yahoo.com/michigan-state-basketball-team-msu-spartans-presented-by-rocket-mortgage-223057968.html?ncid=twitter_yahoosport_dw14wrbb51g
On arena signage
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On tap today:
19-3/14-3 #1 seed Michigan vs 16-12/9-11 #8 seed Maryland, 1130am on BTN:
Michigan -8.5
Michigan went 2-0 in regular season meetings.
18-8/13-6 #4 seed Purdue vs 19-8/12-8 #5 seed Ohio State, 2pm on BTN:
Ohio State -1.
Purdue went 2-0 in regular season meetings.
20-6/16-4 #2 seed Illinois vs 15-10/10-10 #7 seed Rutgers, 630pm on BTN:
Illinois -8.
Rutgers won the only regular season meeting at home in December.
20-7/14-6 #3 seed Iowa vs 17-11/10-10 #6 seed Wisconsin, 9pm on BTN:
Iowa -4
Iowa went 2-0 in regular season meetings.
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Juwan Howard looking like he was trying to fight someone on Maryland
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Purdue has no answers for, uh, Kyle Young
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So, Howard’s story is he came down the sideline to argue an out of bounds call and Turgeon started pointing out to the refs he was out of the coaches’ box.
Howard said he sort of asked Turgeon, “Come on, are you really trying to make a big deal of me being out of the box?” Then Turgeon said something like “You can’t talk to me” or “don’t talk to me” and, as, Howard described it “Rushed at me.”
Howard said when Turgeon rushed him he reacted in a way he shouldn’t have and instincts kicked in. He apologized for his actions. Take it fwiw.
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Purdue solved Kyle Young by clocking him in the head
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I'm at work so can't watch but color me concerned. The Buckeyes are up by six right now (about 4 to go) but led by 18 at the half so Purdue has been chipping away at Ohio State's advantage all second half and at this rate it will be a very close ending.
I'm also worried because the Buckeyes have had trouble holding late leads lately:
- Against Minnesota yesterday the Buckeyes were up 14 with just over 2 minutes to play and barely escaped.
- Against Illinois last week the Buckeyes took a 68-64 lead with 3:48 to play and never scored again en-route to a 73-68 loss.
- Against MSU the Buckeyes took a 63-60 lead with 3:16 to go then got outscored 11-4 down the stretch to lose 71-67.
- Against Michigan the Buckeyes last lead was with about seven minutes to go but they were within one as late as the four minute mark and they had the ball down three with about 2:30 to go then imploded with a dumb turnover, fast break, and foul to make it a six point game.
-
And now the lead is two. According to ESPN, Ohio State's win probability has dropped from 96% at halftime to just 68% now.
-
Ugh:
With 5:26 to go the Buckeyes scored to extend their lead to nine at 70-61. They haven't scored since and now it is 70-68 with about 90 seconds to go.
-
Ugh:
With 5:26 to go the Buckeyes scored to extend their lead to nine at 70-61. They haven't scored since and now it is 70-68 with about 90 seconds to go.
Kyle Young out with a concussion
-
Now tied and Ohio State hasn't scored in four and a half minutes
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Ohio State hit two FT's with 0:24 to go, their first points in over five minutes.
Now Purdue called time (possibly a mistake given the recent flow) and gets to play for the win or OT at their option.
-
If this extra five minutes approximates the last five, Purdue is going to win by nine.
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Can we get a meme of Washington's face on the weak @ss foul out call on Liddell? Priceless.
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Finally!
-
If this extra five minutes approximates the last five, Purdue is going to win by nine.
These Buckeyes cofound me. They play like the best team in the country for 35 minutes. And like a tier 3 team for the other 10.
I really hate 'Tressel Ball' that this team plays with the lead.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwT2JX0WYAU1yOt?format=jpg&name=small)
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I would be surprised if Young is available tomorrow against Michigan
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These Buckeyes cofound me. They play like the best team in the country for 35 minutes. And like a tier 3 team for the other 10.
I really hate 'Tressel Ball' that this team plays with the lead.
I was looking at it that way as well. Dividing the first and second halves by four to make them comparable to the five minute OT, I get this:
- The average for each five minutes of the first half was tOSU 12.25, PU 7.75.
- The average for each five minutes of the second half was tOSU 5.75, PU 10.25.
- OT was tOSU 15, PU 6.
Great first half, amazing OT, WTH second half.
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I would be surprised if Young is available tomorrow against Michigan
I'm not sure that the Buckeyes have anything to play for at this point. Gonzaga, Michigan, Baylor, and Illinois seem locked in as the #1 seeds.
Right now Lunardi has tOSU, Iowa, Alabama, and Houston as the #2 seeds with tOSU in Gonzaga's region (indicating that they are the last #2 but that was before the PU win). Lunardi has Iowa in Baylor's region. I agree with what appears to be his underlying assumption that they will keep the four B1G #1 and #2 seeds separated.
I don't think that the Buckeyes could overtake any of the projected #1's so the only thing TBD is whether they are #2 in Gonzaga's bracket or #2 in Baylor's bracket. I'm not sure that it makes much difference or even which I prefer.
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I'm not sure that the Buckeyes have anything to play for at this point.
???
A win over rival TTUN.
A B1G title.
???
Seems like a lot to play for by me.
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I don't even care about their seed. They aren't winning the NCAA tourney, so every game we get is something I'll take.
-
???
A win over rival TTUN.
A B1G title.
???
Seems like a lot to play for by me.
I get all that and agree, I just meant in terms of NCAA Tournament.
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Watching Okie State-Baylor. Okie State could make a hell of a run for a team banned from the postseason
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Nobody of substance has confirmed, but there is talk on Twitter that Livers maybe has broken foot. Hopefully it's false info.
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Keeping it classy....
The University of Maryland told the Big Ten that Michigan basketball coach Juwan Howard (https://247sports.com/Player/Juwan-Howard-59352) allegedly threatened Terps coach Mark Turgeon (https://247sports.com/Coach/Mark-Turgeon-1241) during a verbal altercation (https://247sports.com/college/maryland/Article/Juwan-Howard-claims-self-defense-Turgeon-says-otherwise-about-verbal-skirmish-162278744/) that broke out during the second half of the teams' game in Friday's Big Ten quarterfinal, a source with knowledge of the situation told InsideMDSports.
Howard, according to Maryland's communications with the conference, said to Turgeon: "I'll f*****g kill you," during a screaming match that saw both coaches move toward one another at midcourt and resulted in Howard's ejection in the Wolverines' eventual 79-66 win.
"This has been going on for three games. I've been doing this for 34 years and I've called the conference office. I called the commissioner about what transpired in the first two games. And I said I wasn't gonna take it the third game. And so I stood up for my team, I stood up for me," Turgeon said afterward, referring to complaints Maryland had made about Howard making disrespectful comments to Maryland's bench during the first two meetings between the two teams this season.
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Nobody of substance has confirmed, but there is talk on Twitter that Livers maybe has broken foot. Hopefully it's false info.
Unfortunately true. Out indefinitely, though not sure how long that will be.
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Wisconsin losing wasn't odd, but the way it happened was. Iowa delivering a horrendous 3-point shooting game. Super tight game after UW let a small lead slip. Then the Badgers turn it over 5 times in the final 7 minutes (in the last 10-11 real possessions).
They had 3 up to that point. This season has been annoying on the late game front. Like, I don't need a sweep there, but in nine games against the best teams, five were close, and I'd like to win ONE! Oh well, on to the dance.
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I think UW is probably one and done.
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I think UW is probably one and done.
Should that happen, it'll annoy me because they will be favored.
Unless they end up a few seeds lower than Lunardi thinks, I'd be annoyed with a 1-and-done, basically accepting of a second-round loss, and if they want to surprise, I'd be OK with it.
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Ended up missing the game yesterday in real-time, so went into internet quarantine and waited until I could watch on the DVR. Then it was time to start making dinner, so didn't have a chance to log in here since.
Overall I actually came away from that game pretty pleased. While obviously a win and an opportunity to advance and hang a BTT banner is the goal, Purdue came into the game a 1 point underdog and I knew it was going to be a fight.
But if you're not going to win the damn thing, at least you want to go into the real tourney right.
Positive takeaways:
- Trevion Williams is back. He's seemed to be in a bit of a slump of late, and the first half was looking like it was continuing. He's the engine that can propel Purdue farthest in the tournament. During his slump we've had tremendous performances from Edey, but Tre is the guy with experience and when he's on, is unstoppable. Double him and he'll rack up assists (5 yesterday), leave him single covered and he'll eat you alive in the paint.
- The team fought back from the early deficit. Obviously you never want to see a team down 18 at the half, but they never stopped fighting and proved to themselves that you CAN fight back. They've been doing that all year, but "win or go home" is a bigger stage. To force OT is huge.
- They lost in the end. In a way, this is a good thing. Only a handful of Purdue players have played in a collegiate tournament, and the most experienced were redshirt on a team that made it to the S16 and/or playing on the team that made it to the Elite Eight. The freshmen needed to understand that it doesn't matter if you fight back to force OT--you need to come out with that same intensity and do the things you did to come back in the next 5 minutes--a team like OSU isn't going to roll over and let you just walk all over them.
- This loss will stop them from getting big-headed. They'd won 5 in a row and the loss will hopefully humble them and make them work harder going into next week. Especially since some of the reasons for the loss, such as poor FT shooting, are entirely in their own control.
- They're healthy and don't have to play any games--or potentially expose themselves to COVID, between now and next week. In a normal season this is not as big of an issue, but the BTT is the appetizer and the NCAAT is the main course. Would hate to see them have to withdraw or forfeit due to COVID exposure--as may be happening to a few other teams right now.
Regarding the last point--sorry to see what happened to Kyle Young. I think everyone can see that it was a basketball play and not intentional, but as a fan of a team that has been snakebit by injury in both football and basketball over the years, I hate to see that. Seems like a hell of a competitor. A concussion may take him out for the remainder of the BTT, which sucks for OSU, but I hope he's healthy and ready to go next week.
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Rock fight in first half
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Ugg. OSU fouled TTUN elbow with his face?
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Lunardi has Purdue as a 4, facing my wife's alma mater UCSB, in the first round as the 13...
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Rock fight in first half
I don't follow the refs. They have been allowing heavy weight punches get thrown all game, then they turn on the ticky tack meter in the last 3 minutes. And it's been both ways, TTUN's Wagner got called for a hand touch well after the shot was released. Towns getting called for being in the same zip code as Johns.
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Late game Buckeyes are inexplicable
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Luckily bailed out my inexplicable call from Michigan
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwYrfgiWQAIopxs?format=jpg&name=small)
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3 straight days, 3 straight double leads disappear, in the last 3 minutes.
How does this team fall apart so bad at the end?
Liddell today, misses an open dunk, turns it over to a 7 footer, and dribbles it out of bounds. What should have been a cruise to a double digit win, was an answered prayer for a TTUN miss at the end.
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Luckily bailed out my inexplicable call from Michigan
???
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???
Meant to say by Michigan, referring to letting Mike Smith dribble out the clock instead of giving the ball to Dickinson
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Late game Buckeyes are inexplicable
They are just giving the fans their money's worth!
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Meant to say by Michigan, referring to letting Mike Smith dribble out the clock instead of giving the ball to Dickinson
Yah I, the coaches, and announcers at the game and back in the studio were all confused with that.
I watched the replay, and it more confusing because OSU does OSU and switches Liddell off and has Sueing guard Dickinson after the high pick. I thought game over right there.
But Buckeyes do a great prevent defense, Sueing goes almost into a %45 degree lean trying to keep Dickenson from going to wear he wanted. Liddell sagged on defense showing the Buckeyes hand that they were going to crash on the 7 footer, so Smith took a decent open shot to try and win.
Looking at stats Dickerson is shooting 60%, and Smith is shooting 45% from behind the arc. I think the Buckeyes prevented option 1, and TTUN with with their 2nd best play, he was just a bit off.
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Is Ohio State the only B1G team to beat each of the other 13 B1G teams?
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In this entire tournament only three games were different from chalk and Ohio State was involved in all three:
- #5 Ohio State played #13 Minnesota instead of #12 Northwestern.
- #1 Michigan played #5 Ohio State instead of #4 Purdue in the semi-final.
- #2 Illinois will play #5 Ohio State instead of #1 Michigan in the Championship.
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Rick Pitino and Iona headed to the big dance
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Georgia Tech and Georgetown headed to the tourney
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Lot of bid stealers making me less confident about MSU
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https://twitter.com/ChrisHoltmann/status/1370851475539263494?s=20
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Wisconsin is starting to settle into a 7 seed in the projections. Who knows how it actually falls?
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BTT Championship KenPom
1. Michigan (2)
2. Illinois (3)
3. Iowa (5)
4. OSU (7)
5. Wisconsin (11)
6. Purdue (13)
7. Maryland (31)
8. Rutgers (34)
9. PSU (35)
10. Indiana (46)
11. MSU (56)
12. Minny (57)
13. Northwestern (70)
14. Nebraska (94)
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwZXNXWXEAAvbmq?format=jpg&name=medium)
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Illinois is the 10th #2 seed to play in the B1GCG. The previous nine went 7-2:
- 2-1 vs #1
- 3-1 vs #4
- 1-1 vs #8
- 1-0 vs #9
Ohio State is the 3rd #5 seed to play in the B1GCG. The previous two went 1-1 against #3.
B1G Championship games:
- 1 over 2, 2007
- 1 over 3, 2005, 2012, 2015, 2019
- 1 over 6, 2010, 2011
- 1 over 10, 2008
- 1 over 11, 1999
- 2 over 1, 2004, 2006
- 2 over 4, 2000, 2013, 2016
- 2 over 8, 2003
- 2 over 9, 2002
- 3 over 1, 2014
- 3 over 5, 2009
- 4 over 3, 1998
- 5 over 3, 2018
- 6 over 4, 2001
- 8 over 2, 2017
Oddly, #2 has never previously met #5 in the BTT.
In 22 previous CG's:
- #1 is 9-3 in 12
- #2 is 7-2 in 9
- #3 is 2-6 in 8
- #4 is 1-4 in 5
- #5 is 1-1 in 2
- #6 is 1-2 in 3
- #8 is 1-1 in 2
- #9 is 0-1 in 1
- #10 is 0-1 in 1
- #11 is 0-1 in 1
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Today's game:
22-6/16-4 #3 ranked #2 seed Illinois vs 21-8/12-8 #9 ranked #5 seed Ohio State, 3:30 pm on CBS:
These teams played twice in the regular season with each winning on the other team's home floor.
On January 16 Ohio State won in Champaign, 87-81. Ohio State led nearly the entire game including by as much as 18 but the Illini got it to a one possession game late before tOSU made the FT's to win by six.
The second meeting, on March 6, was close the whole way. Illinois' largest lead was 10 while Ohio State's was five. Ohio State led 68-64 with 3:48 to go but the Illini outscored the Buckeyes 9-0 the rest of the way to win by five, 73-68.
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I'm just here to see Musa Jallow guard both Ayo and Cockburn
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Let's Go Bucks!
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Not liking how this game is getting called, Illinois is way more physical than OSUB but OSU is getting ticky tack calls while the Noise is just hammering away Ayo looks out of control, but getting whistles to save him.
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A truly horrid start for the Bucks as they began 1-15. But they hung in. Pretty fun first half.
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A truly horrid start for the Bucks as they began 1-15. But they hung in. Pretty fun first half.
As awfully as Ohio State started, it is miraculous that this is even a game.
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So... I've seen Illinois do this the whole Tourney, it feels illegal, but never gets called.
Either Illinois big guy does this; in the paint looks like he is fighting for position, but then the guard starts streaking in the lane. The center brings arms down, makes kinda a cage around the defender, and does what I would call a moving screen to keep the other teams big from being able to slide over and help defend.
And they do it all the time. It's Never called. My question is this legal, and if so why doesn't everyone else do it?
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What a freaking good game
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OT!!!
Let's Go BUCKS!
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Wow!
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Man, that's a charge if anyone else does it.
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Gah late game OSU always disappoints
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Bracket time
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A real bummer with no Appy State Michigan first round game
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Hawkeyes draw the last 2 seed in Gonzaga's bracket
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Hawkeyes draw the last 2 seed in Gonzaga's bracket
Bama winning the SEC knock the Buckeyes to a 3 seed?
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Hmmm, I clearly can't be mad at all if UW doesn't make the second weekend. I don't know how I feel about how they should fare against UNC. If they want to win, that would be cool.
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Full bracket
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
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I gotta say, If Duane Washington Jr. can keep playing like that, OSU might have a better shot than I thought. What a gamer.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EweY_oTWYAYZNmz?format=jpg&name=medium)
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WVU got as good a draw as I could possibly hope for, probably the best draw I can ever remember them getting. I really thought Ok St would be a 3 and WVU a 4. Still not exactly sure how that didn’t happen.
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Hoping to go 3-1 against OSU.
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Congrats Illini.
Mich hope to see y’all in E8.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EweyUoAWQAAILOE?format=jpg&name=small)
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Hoping to go 3-1 against OSU.
Hoping PurDon't goes 2-2 against the Buckeyes. 😈
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Hoping PurDon't goes 2-2 against the Buckeyes. 😈
I'd obviously prefer 2-2 to 3-1 but frankly I'll be very happy if Purdue and Ohio State both make the E8.
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Ok so the real question, if all the games are played in Indy, why are the regions still directional?
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Gotta let someone complain about being sent out 'west.'
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i haven't looked at the brackets but I did see Iowa is #2 in the west playing grand canyon, hope theres no jet lag
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Well, someone's gotta have a long bus ride to B-town or WLaf.
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I'd obviously prefer 2-2 to 3-1 but frankly I'll be very happy if Purdue and Ohio State both make the E8.
FWIW, for a Purdue/Ohio State tournament match-up here is what would have to happen first:
#4 Purdue:
- Beat #13 North Texas
- Beat the 5/12 Villanova/Winthrop winner
- Beat 1/8/9/16 Baylor/UNC/UW/Hartford
#2 Ohio State:
- Beat #15 Oral Roberts
- Beat #7/10 Florida/VaTech
- Beat 3/6/11/14 Arkansas/TxTech/UtahSt/Colgate
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FWIW, for a Purdue/Ohio State tournament match-up here is what would have to happen first:
#4 Purdue:
- Beat #13 North Texas
- Beat the 5/12 Villanova/Winthrop winner
- Beat 1/8/9/16 Baylor/UNC/UW/Hartford
#2 Ohio State:
- Beat #15 Oral Roberts
- Beat #7/10 Florida/VaTech
- Beat 3/6/11/14 Arkansas/TxTech/UtahSt/Colgate
(https://i.imgur.com/72JxtjK.png)
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At least MSU has a chance to pick up a rare win in Mackey. Purdue's team should show up and taunt them, like a WWE opponent in a TV match leading up to a pay-per-view showdown
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The Mackey crowd can relentlessly boo the refs after every call and not just half
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B1G schedule
Thursday, March 18
- MSU v. UCLA, 9:57 pm, TBS
Friday, March 19
- Illinois v. Drexel, 1:15 pm, TBS
- OSU v. Oral Roberts, 3 pm, CBS
- Wisconsin v. North Carolina, 7:10, CBS
- Purdue v. North Texas, 7:25, TNT
- Rutgers v. Clemson, 9:20, TBS
Saturday, March 20
- Michigan v. Mt. St. MAry's/Texas Southern, 3 pm, CBS
- Iowa v. Grand Canyon, 6:25, TBS
- Maryland v. UConn, 7:10, CBS
- MSU (if they win their first game) v. BYU, 9:40, CBS
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B1G seeds and what they should accomplish based on past results for those seeds:
- #1: Michigan, Illinois
- #2: Iowa, Ohio State
- #4: Purdue
- #9: Wisconsin
- #10: Maryland, Rutgers
- #11: Michigan State
What this group should accomplish:
- 6.15 teams in the R32
- 3.91 teams in the S16
- 2.62 teams in the E8
- 1.36 teams in the F4
- 0.69 teams in the NC
- 0.39 National Champions
The math by round:
R64:
- #1's win 99.29%, we have two so should win 1.99.
- #2's win 94.29%, we have two so should win 1.89.
- #4's win 79.29%, so Purdue should win 0.79.
- #9's win 51.43%, so Wisconsin should win 0.51.
- #10's win 39.29%, we have two so should win 0.78.
- #11's win 37.14%, we have 1/2 so should win .37.
R32:
- #1's win 85.71%, we have two so should win 1.71.
- #2's win 63.57%, we have two so should win 1.27.
- #4's win 47.14%, Purdue should win 0.47.
- #9's win 5%, Wisconsin should win 0.05.
- #10's win 16.43%, we have two so should win 0.33.
- #11's win 15.71%, we have 1/2 so should win 0.08.
S16:
- #1's win 69.29%, we have two so should win 1.39.
- #2's win 45.71%, we have two so should win 0.91.
- #4's win 15%, Purdue should win 0.15.
- #9's win 2.86%, Wisconsin should win 0.03.
- #10's win 5.71%, we have two so should win 0.11.
- #11's win 5.71%, we have 1/2 so should win 0.03.
E8:
- #1's win 41.43%, we have two so should win 0.83.
- #2's win 20%, we have two so should win 0.40.
- #4's win 9.29%, Purdue should win 0.09.
- #9's win 0.71%, Wisconsin should win 0.01.
- #10's win 0.71%, we have two so should win 0.01.
- #11's win 2.86%, we have 1/2 so should win 0.01.
National Semi-Finals:
- #1's win 25%, we have two so should win 0.5.
- #2's win 8.57%, we have two so should win 0.17.
- #4's win 2.14%, Purdue should win 0.02.
- #9's and below have never won at this level.
National Championship:
- #1's win 15.71%, we have two so should win 0.31.
- #2's win 3.57%, we have two so should win 0.07.
- #4's win 0.71%, Purdue should win 0.01.
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B1G schedule
Thursday, March 18
- MSU v. UCLA, 9:57 pm, TBS
:34:
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(https://i.imgur.com/72JxtjK.png)
HA!watch the Boiling Bwarbs get to that point and the Bucks bow out.And ELA you never know that could turn into Hearns/Hagler
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HA!watch the Boiling Bwarbs get to that point and the Bucks bow out.And ELA you never know that could turn into Hearns/Hagler
I think the yawn has more to do with the start time than the match up.
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The Mackey crowd can relentlessly boo the refs after every call and not just half
The Badgers are headed there. They are 4-42 all time at that joint.
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Archie Miller gone...no surprise
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(https://i.imgur.com/72JxtjK.png)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/Gqts9avyPdE2pNGBFo2zomfYbzqDeE_V5Kjjp_f9x1M_4JwgFZTHsGrPY5IgAGPbaG6rQDDZede3gfTuTOtzpMmo-DxWuy_88AyHe2iTPFulhKUqrfMVByaFS-d5veZS-Ek1S766bdRU6US-MzlZKccd5KVkGPTpO-kh4g)
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Archie Miller gone...no surprise
Throw a blank check at Brad Stevens. When he says no, do the same for Chris Beard.
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Little Pitino out too
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Throw a blank check at Brad Stevens. When he says no, do the same for Chris Beard.
Beard is the one I *don't* want to see at IU, because I think he's a hell of a coach. And his style of play is a thorn in Purdue's side.
Scuttlebutt is that he's divorced and his ex and their daughters live in the TTech area, and aren't interested in moving. It may mean he's not going to leave TTech until the kids are older.
I realize it's hard to turn down a "blue blood", but he has no personal ties to IU that I'm aware of, he's making PLENTY of money and is loved at TTech, and he is a UT alum.
The only reason to go to IU is because it's a blue blood. There are handfuls of reasons for his career, family, bank account, personal history, etc to remain at TTech.
Why give up a massive salary at TTech where he's successful and loved and calls it home, to be potentially the next failure in a 20 year list of failures at IU since Bobby Knight?
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"I realize it's hard to turn down a former 'blue blood' "
FIFY :violent-smiley-007:
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A HC going from Texas Tech to Indiana? The Knight inversion?
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Why give up a massive salary at TTech where he's successful and loved and calls it home, to be potentially the next failure in a 20 year list of failures at IU since Bobby Knight?
"I realize it's hard to turn down a former 'blue blood' "
FIFY :violent-smiley-007:
LoL, Rivalry, love it!
In all seriousness though, could we all set aside and IU homerism/haterism for a minute and try to look at that program objectively?
What are they today? Can they get back to Knight's glory days when IU was in the small handful of BB Royalty? What should the standard be for an IU coach?
In Knight's 30 years in Bloomington the Hoosiers won three NC's, 11 league titles, and had 24 NCAA tournament appearances (Note that this is more impressive than it sounds because half of Knight's tenure was before the tournament expanded to 64).
Since then:
Mike Davis, 7 years, 2000-2006:
1 league title
4 NCAA appearances
Kelvin Sampson, 2 years, 2006-2008:
0 league titles
1 NCAA appearance
Dan Dakich (interim)
Tom Crean, 9 years, 2008-2017:
2 league titles
4 NCAA appearances
Archie Miller, 4 years, 2017-2021:
0 league titles
0 NCAA appearances
The Purdue fans do have a point. In the 21 years since Knight's firing the Hoosiers have three league titles (one every seven years) and nine NCAA appearances (roughly every other year). Both of those are WAY off from Knight's pace of roughly four NCAA appearances every five years (including before expansion) and a league title roughly every three years.
Was Knight simply lightning in a bottle or can Indiana get back to (or at least close to) those heights?
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Reports that Purdue assistant Micah Shrewsberry will be the next HC at Penn State.
This isn't a shock to Purdue fans. When Shrewsberry came from his assistant job with the Celtics under Brad Stevens [he'd previously been an assistant at Butler] it was largely seen as a 1-2 year "rental" for Shrewsberry to re-acclimate to the college game and then find a head coaching gig.
Good for him... I wish him success. I just limit the ceiling on those wishes for 2nd place finishes in the B1G--right behind #1 Purdue lol.
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In all seriousness though, could we all set aside and IU homerism/haterism for a minute and try to look at that program objectively?
<snip>
The Purdue fans do have a point. In the 21 years since Knight's firing the Hoosiers have three league titles (one every seven years) and nine NCAA appearances (roughly every other year). Both of those are WAY off from Knight's pace of roughly four NCAA appearances every five years (including before expansion) and a league title roughly every three years.
Was Knight simply lightning in a bottle or can Indiana get back to (or at least close to) those heights?
Go back the last 5 years (2016-2020). IU has out-recruited Purdue every single one. IU has been probably the top consistent recruiter in the B1G--they haven't been #1, but they've been right in that 2-3 range in conference pretty much every one of those years.
Indiana is a basketball state, with a lot of talent and development at the HS level. Indiana is still the biggest name in the state, despite doing very little since Mike Davis had a good run with Knight's recruits.
If this is what they do when they're middling, can you imagine what they can do if they have a coach who can actually get the most out of those recruits?
That's the helmet / blue blood effect. When you still recruit far beyond your on-court success, you're just one good coach away from actually putting it all together. Granted they're in the best conference in college basketball, so there are a lot of speed bumps in the way of that success. Purdue has a "lifer" at HC who is really starting to come into his own and starting to recruit commensurate with the team's success. Juwan Howard looks to be legit. Chris Holtmann is a great coach. Illinois is great.
But recruiting is key, and IU is still enough of a name there to recruit far above their on-court success. If you pair on-court success, they could even move UP in recruiting.
If IU gets the right coach, I think you start looking at 1A / 1B being MSU and IU, and who knows how many years Izzo has left in him?
That's why I don't want them to get the right coach!
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Good point @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) .
Recruiting success without the performance to justify is a strong indicator that they are still a "name" program even if not at the level they once were.
247 recruiting rankings w/in B1G:
- 2020: #2 behind M
- 2019: #6 behind tOSU, MSU, UMD, MN, UNL
- 2018: #2 behind UMD
- 2017: #3 behind tOSU, IL
- 2016: #3 behind MSU, UMD
- 2015: #5 behind tOSU, IL, MSU, UNL
- 2014: #3 behind tOSU, UMD
- 2013: #1
- 2012: #1
- 2011: #6 behind tOSU, IL, RU, MSU, M
That obviously should translate to better results.
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Thank god Kelvin Sampson couldn't stay off the telephone
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Reports that Purdue assistant Micah Shrewsberry will be the next HC at Penn State.
This isn't a shock to Purdue fans. When Shrewsberry came from his assistant job with the Celtics under Brad Stevens [he'd previously been an assistant at Butler] it was largely seen as a 1-2 year "rental" for Shrewsberry to re-acclimate to the college game and then find a head coaching gig.
Good for him... I wish him success. I just limit the ceiling on those wishes for 2nd place finishes in the B1G--right behind #1 Purdue lol.
His kid is a really nice player. He's just a sophomore. It will be interesting to see if he wants to play for dad at Penn State or go somewhere else. He's a high major player for sure.
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What's the Indiana pecking order, from top to bottom? If Indiana is 1, who is 2? Purdue or Notre Dame?
How does the mid major scrap heap shake out? Is Indiana State the tallest midget, for having once had Larry Bird? Ball State? Iupui? Iupufw? One of the others?
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Indiana, Purdue, Butler, Notre Dame would be my order.
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Indiana, Purdue, Butler, Notre Dame would be my order.
Agreed 100%.
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Indiana, Purdue, Butler, Notre Dame would be my order.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ehutv4JXkAAKQs2.jpg)
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Indiana, Purdue, Butler, Notre Dame would be my order.
Butler over ND? In what sense?
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Butler over ND? In what sense?
ND is a football school. It's also in South Bend, not Indianapolis. Nobody there even cares about basketball very much, so why should Indy fans care?
Butler is a basketball school, in Indy. It's got the scrappy underdog vibe, which makes sense to anyone who has watched the movie "Hoosiers" and laments that Indiana HS basketball went to a class-based championship so "the small school can't win it all".
Notre Dame is very popular amongst people in Indiana who didn't attend college. They root for Notre Dame [football] in the fall, but they root for IU [basketball] in the winter. The only people who care about Notre Dame basketball are alums... And it's not a big enrollment.
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Certainly feels like Butler has been a lot stronger in recent history
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FWIW, for a Purdue/Ohio State tournament match-up here is what would have to happen first:
#4 Purdue:
- Beat #13 North Texas
- Beat the 5/12 Villanova/Winthrop winner
- Beat 1/8/9/16 Baylor/UNC/UW/Hartford
#2 Ohio State:
- Beat #15 Oral Roberts
- Beat #7/10 Florida/VaTech
- Beat 3/6/11/14 Arkansas/TxTech/UtahSt/Colgate
I sure would love the hell out of it if the E8 ends up round 4 of Purdue-OSU. All 3 were good games that came down to the final possessions of regulation.
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ND is a football school. It's also in South Bend, not Indianapolis. Nobody there even cares about basketball very much, so why should Indy fans care?
Butler is a basketball school, in Indy. It's got the scrappy underdog vibe, which makes sense to anyone who has watched the movie "Hoosiers" and laments that Indiana HS basketball went to a class-based championship so "the small school can't win it all".
Notre Dame is very popular amongst people in Indiana who didn't attend college. They root for Notre Dame [football] in the fall, but they root for IU [basketball] in the winter. The only people who care about Notre Dame basketball are alums... And it's not a big enrollment.
So they're third in terms of general attention/feeling/goodwill?
I ask because back when I lived in the state, I still always got the sense that a mid-major was not going to get much attention just because of what it was. On the one hand, you ask why should Indy fans care about ND? But do they care all that much about Butler? Or do just Butler people care, and Indy people only care when they do something crazy and there's a bandwagon to get on? I suppose ND is probably in the same boat, give or take better name recognition.
(I also wasn't sure if you meant as a coaching job, which is itself another interesting question)
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Certainly feels like Butler has been a lot stronger in recent history
Notre Dame had a long run where it could hold its own, and it's recent drop off started a bit before Butler's. Butler was on average a bit stronger, and the title game trips are big, but Brey carved out a pretty strong run for while. Granted, it was less interesting for a range of reasons.
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There's a decent amount of Butler fans in Indy, but after IU, in terms of volume, Purdue is easiliy next both in central IN and statewide for hoops fans.
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I don't know that Butler still counts as a mid major, now that they are in the Big East. They also finished tenth out of eleven teams this year, which I didn't know but just looked up.
Notre Dame of course big timed the Big East for the ACC, which is an even better basketball conference. Obviously that wasn't a football inspired move.
So considering all of that it is surprising that Butler would have a leg up on the Domers in helmetiness.
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What's the Indiana pecking order, from top to bottom? If Indiana is 1, who is 2? Purdue or Notre Dame?
How does the mid major scrap heap shake out? Is Indiana State the tallest midget, for having once had Larry Bird? Ball State? Iupui? Iupufw? One of the others?
IU, Purdue, Butler, ND
Mid majors: Ball State, Indiana State, Valpo, IUPUI, Evansville. Fort Wayne is a distant last. Most people forget there's even a school there. I'm thinking purely in terms of yearly strength of program and tradition. In fact, I'd argue that Indiana Wesleyan is more well known and followed than Fort Wayne and probably for good reason. They're an elite NAIA basketball school. Don't be surprised if they make a move to NCAA D2 or even D1 in the next 10 years. They just added football and they have really taken advantage of the adult online education trend. I have a masters and my principals licensure from there and I just finished their superintendents licensure program.
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Indiana, Purdue, Butler, Notre Dame would be my order.
Mine too.
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I wonder if it's different now that Butler has had much more high level success, but during my year at Indiana, there were a lot of legitimate IU/Butler or PU/Butler fans.
They existed in totally different realms, so it wasn't an issue. There were 100% IU fans in my dorm...who also owned and wore Butler gear. Butler played Detroit that year in a MidCon tourney game, and it was a hell of a good time. That was post Mike Miller buzzer beater, and in 2001 they won a 7-10 game before getting smacked by Zona, so they were a "threat" yet. I wonder if there is less of that now that they've had more major success
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Butler is still a distant third behind IU and Purdue. In general they are viewed as a likeable little brother. We like to see them do well and when they do manage to beat IU or Purdue, we're angry of course. But we also always know that they're still little brother and it won't happen too often.
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It's starting to dawn on me that a stunning number of us have lived in Indiana at one point or another.
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Butler is still a distant third behind IU and Purdue. In general they are viewed as a likeable little brother. We like to see them do well and when they do manage to beat IU or Purdue, we're angry of course. But we also always know that they're still little brother and it won't happen too often.
And I think that's sort of true everywhere. I know when EMU was good in the 90s, everyone in Michigan sort of got on board. I was in Pittsburgh when Robert Morris got jobbed out of a 2-15 upset of Villanova, same deal. But 99.9% of the time, nobody knows how those schools are doing. It seemed to me that there were a good number of actual IU/BU or PU/BU fans.
Like I said though, Butler's profile in 2002 was very different than it is now.
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I lived in a Holiday Inn in Logansport for over a year
does that count?
this was 1995-96 - Mike Alstott was making a run for the Hypesman
Coach Keady was in the middle of a 3-peat in the Big 10.
Bobby Knight was about 25 years in and his son Pat was a team capt
the Hoosier's football team sucked
Larry Brown and Reggie Miller had the PAcers knocking on the door
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IU, Purdue, Butler, ND
Mid majors: Ball State, Indiana State, Valpo, IUPUI, Evansville. Fort Wayne is a distant last. Most people forget there's even a school there.
Perfect, thanks.
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Charlton Heston's character in Planet of the Apes was from Ft Wayne.
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Conferences by percent of teams in the top-68 of the final (pre tournament, obviously) NET rankings:
- 71.4%, B1G, 10 of 14
- 70%, B12, 7 of 10
- 64.3%, SEC, 9 of 14
- 60%, ACC, 9 of 15
- 54.5%, B-East, 6 of 11
- 41.7%, P12, 5 of 12
- 36.4%, MWC, 4 of 11
- 35.7%, A10, 5 of 14
- 30%, WCC, 3 of 10
- 27.3%, AAC, 3 of 11
- 20%, MVC, 2 of 10
- 10%, Patriot, 1 of 10
- 9.1%, B-West, 1 of 11
- 9.1%, B-South, 1 of 11
- 8.3%, MAC, 1 of 12
- 7.1%, C-USA, 1 of 14
The other 15 league's (not counting the Ivy) had no teams in the top 68 of the final NET rankings. Their highest ranked was as follows:
- 71 Horizon
- 74 Southland
- 75 Solon
- 86 ASUN
- 90 OVC
- 107 WAC
- 114 B-Sky
- 115 AmEast
- 123 Summit
- 127 NEC
- 128 SBT
- 135 CAA
- 138 MAAC
- 170 MEAC
- 201 SWAC
My new proposal:
- No auto-bid unless your conference has at least one team in the top 128 of the final NET rankings.
- Eliminate play-in games, go back to 64 teams.
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How can the HBCUs be so hilariously bad at basketball?
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Gophers sacked Richard Pitino yesterday, and he's hired this morning at New Mexico.
Pitino was a nice enough guy, but he was .350 in league play, and his 16-17 team was soooo bad that I lost interest in college basketball entirely.
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I know how you feel
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Gophers sacked Richard Pitino yesterday, and he's hired this morning at New Mexico.
Pitino was a nice enough guy, but he was .350 in league play, and his 16-17 team was soooo bad that I lost interest in college basketball entirely.
New Mexico is a basketball school.
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New Mexico is a basketball school.
Being at the old Mountain West tournament at The Pit when Colorado State shocked BYU and the Reid brothers with a last second 30 footer is one of my favorite memories at a sport event. The entire place exploded. Loudest gym I've ever been in, hands down.
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How can the HBCUs be so hilariously bad at basketball?
Money, resources, structural organization. The schools that are the best schools don't invest much (I don't think). The less well-run ones, well, there's inconsistency all around.
When I was much younger I ended up at a HS football game between a school from one of the hardest parts of a Bay Area city vs a school from a wealthy suburb. I thought "these kids are def tougher." They didn't score until 8 seconds left and down 52. The tougher school didn't even have rosters handy. The other school had two kids just charting punts.
Resources and organization make programs.
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Practically PSU's whole team is in the portal. OSU definitely interested in the big guy, Harrar.
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Perfect, thanks.
Evansville feels like it is 3,000 miles away from me in suburban Indy. I've never been, only part of State I've never been in 12+ as a resident.
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Im actually starting to think Brad Stevens to Indiana could happen, but the timeline this year is so screwed up. I can't imagine Indiana waiting until early June to make a hire
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Evansville feels like it is 3,000 miles away from me in suburban Indy. I've never been, only part of State I've never been in 12+ as a resident.
My freshman year roommate at IU was from that area. Never heard a reason to visit.
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Evansville feels like it is 3,000 miles away from me in suburban Indy. I've never been, only part of State I've never been in 12+ as a resident.
Looks kind of awesome.
Right on the river, forested area, maybe some hill country nearby...
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Practically PSU's whole team is in the portal. OSU definitely interested in the big guy, Harrar.
I'd like UW to be too.
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There are two golf courses around Evansville I'd like to play. The architect who designed our home lives in Evansville, good dude, and they make a ton of baby formula there. Don't know much else. Once the redneck autobahn (as some call it) is complete (I-69) I'll probably head down there. Kind of pokey going b/t Indy and B-town this year and next on State 37 due to the construction. I spent some of self-quarantine taking exploratory drives around the state this winter, didn't quite have a full day to kill heading to Evansville and back.
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Looks kind of awesome.
Right on the river, forested area, maybe some hill country nearby...
I'm originally from southern Indiana, kind of between Bloomington and Terre Haute. I've spent some time in Evansville. It's not a bad town but it's just kind of midwest bland.
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I am just now learning that Purdue has a John Wooden statue?
WTF?
Sure, he played there, but that's not what he's known for. I'm pretty sure MSU isn't putting up a statue of Carol Hutchins whenever she retires. At least I hope not
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Wasn't he the first ever 3 time AA college player? I mean he wasn't merely passing through Purdue. Wooden's childhood wasn't too far to the south near Martinsville, I'm not surprised he's lionized in his native state.
Although I doubt there's a Greg Popovich statue up in Merrillville, IN.
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https://purduesports.com/sports/2018/5/17/trads-johnwoodenstatue-html.aspx?id=535
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Wasn't he the first ever 3 time AA college player? I mean he wasn't merely passing through Purdue. Wooden's childhood wasn't too far to the south near Martinsville, I'm not surprised he's lionized in his native state.
Although I doubt there's a Greg Popovich statue up in Merrillville, IN.
Yeah, and Carol Hutchins was from Lansing, led MSU to a national title as a player while being an All-American.
But she's known for being the all time winningest Division 1 coach...at a different school.
It's an almost exact comparison. Just feels weird.
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Michigan State has a Magic Johnson statue? Sure he played there, but that isn't what he is known for.
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Yeah, and Carol Hutchins was from Lansing, led MSU to a national title as a player while being an All-American.
But she's known for being the all time winningest Division 1 coach...at a different school.
It's an almost exact comparison. Just feels weird.
It feels like an embodiment of the idea that everything is local. Like Purdue wanting to honor one of its greatest players who also just happened to be the most successful coach of all time seems fine.
And if MSU wanted to build a statue of her as a player, that would make sense.
I like that his is in old school shorts holding the ball in an old timey manner. If the statue was older, I’d find that weird.
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Michigan State has a Magic Johnson statue? Sure he played there, but that isn't what he is known for.
He's not known for being a basketball player? And it's not like he played for MSU, and then went to a different college and was even more successful.
If the statue was built in 1955, sure. I don't have a problem with it, it just seems weird. Like, hey, remember this great UCLA coach, well what if I told you before that, he also played for a different school?
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Then you really aren't going to like the unveiling of the Bobby Knight statue at OSU.
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Columbus area had some funny ones, actually.
Denison had this placard of Woody Hayes. Sure, he coached there, but that isn't what he was known for.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQwj_hhWkAMnayV.jpg)
Ohio Wesleyan has this placard commemorating the location of the first OSU Football game. Sure it was also the location of the first Ohio Wesleyan Football game, but that isn't what it was known for.
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/f2/3c/be/f23cbe4c4feb956e9cb04f9bf6b47a06.jpg)
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I'm glad this one is no longer standing in Madison.
The story behind the dick-shaped sculpture at Camp Randall Stadium · The Badger Herald (https://badgerherald.com/artsetc/2014/09/02/story-behind-dick-shaped-statue-camp-randall-stadium/)
(https://i.imgur.com/6yb4vsX.jpg)
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Reminds me of...
(https://i0.wp.com/something2offer.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Road-Trip-Attraction-Concrete-Filed-of-Corn-Dublin-Ohio-fb.jpg?fit=750%2C536&ssl=1)
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we don't even have anything THAT corny in Iowa - the tall corn state
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Reminds me of...
(https://i0.wp.com/something2offer.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Road-Trip-Attraction-Concrete-Filed-of-Corn-Dublin-Ohio-fb.jpg?fit=750%2C536&ssl=1)
I have a co-worker from the town of the world's largest teapot
(https://i.imgur.com/BCirPiY.png)
And then there's this on Eastern Michigan's campus
(https://i.pinimg.com/236x/2d/be/f2/2dbef21f10e1976976338823411bb2f7--detroit-michigan-water-tower.jpg)
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Nebraska's capital building is the largest penis of the plains.
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truth
or of the prairie
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The University of Michigan has reached out to Rhode Island transfer Fatts Russell, according to ESPN college basketball insider Jeff Borzello, who reported on Thursday through sources the talented guard has heard from several major programs about his services for the upcoming 2021-22 season.
"He's heard from Oregon, Gonzaga, Michigan, Maryland, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Penn State and Arizona State since entering the portal last night," Borzello tweeted. "First-team All-Atlantic 10 last season, third-team this season."
Russell led Rhode Island in scoring this season, averaging 14.7 points per game as a slashing guard. He started 22 of 23 games as a veteran backcourt player and also pitched in 4.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.9 steals per game.
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UNL needs to stop it with the transfers and just build a program already.
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UNL needs all the talent they can get, by whatever means possible.
if you haven't noticed, recruiting to Lincoln, NE isn't as easy as some other places. Especially for hoops.
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It's not easy to recruit anywhere if you're not Dook, UNC, KY, Kansas.
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Gonzaga, Michigan, Maryland, Arkansas, and Oklahoma all recruit pretty well compared to UNL
if they are interested in the kid, I'm not going to be upset that Hoiberg has his nose in there.
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I'm a firm believer in chemistry. Some coaches allow current players to interact with recruits to get a feel for fit.
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Chemistry has been lacking sorely at UNL in both locker rooms, basketball & Football
hopefully, getting better soon
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Revolving doors do not help anything. That is why fit is so important.
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First game is a good one, and I could listen to Avery Johnson talk about anything. Put him on more games please.
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Second game. Also good.
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Second game. Also good.
Close? Yes. Good? Eh
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MSU-UCLA pushed back from 9:57 to 10:19, because why not?
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Appy St is a rather chilly 1-21 from 3 point range.
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Close? Yes. Good? Eh
Heh not a barn burner, though I like when a team is totally stymied by the other team's defense and then just figure it out and light it up
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Appy St is a rather chilly 1-21 from 3 point range.
I'm glad you pointed this out.
ApSt has really closed the gap in the past few minutes and when I checked they are a dreadful 4-27 on 3's. Thus, they are 3-6 since starting 1-21. If they can keep shooting 50% they just might win this game.
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I wish the Assembly Hall TV broadcast would return to the low pitch perspective of old.
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I'm glad you pointed this out.
ApSt has really closed the gap in the past few minutes and when I checked they are a dreadful 4-27 on 3's. Thus, they are 3-6 since starting 1-21. If they can keep shooting 50% they just might win this game.
Up 1 now. They were 0-18 from 3 in the first half and played as poorly as anyone I’ve seen all season.
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Up 1 now. They were 0-18 from 3 in the first half and played as poorly as anyone I’ve seen all season.
5 of the last 13. Positively on fire.
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App St actually went up by 6 but Norfolk responded with a 7-0 run. One point game with under 3 to play.
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Norfolk up 1 with 8.6 to play. App St ball.
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Norfolk holds on. Dammit. Messed up my 4 team parlay. Lol.
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Man, Izzo really went after Gabe Brown as they were walking to the locker room and Brown was having none of it.
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https://purduesports.com/sports/2018/5/17/trads-johnwoodenstatue-html.aspx?id=535
It's much better than that semi-creeping looking one in downtown Indy where it's John Wooden surrounded by a bunch of legs.
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Neither team got into the bonus in the first half, the refs realized they needed their screen time. So now each team has four fouls five minutes into the second half
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The lesson tonight is do not get off to big first half leads
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First game is a good one, and I could listen to Avery Johnson talk about anything. Put him on more games please.
The B team of Nessler and Johnson doing the Bloomington games is certainly the better crew of the two.
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MSU is over hedging everything defensively. Almost comically so.
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Ick. Need to adjust my brackets before this starts. Thought MSU could make a run.
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Ick. Need to adjust my brackets before this starts. Thought MSU could make a run.
I did too!
The way they finished the year I thought they were primed for March.
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I've put my bracket eggs in Georgetown's basket for the same reason
besides, Ralphie is a cow
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No Kyle Young for Buckeyes today
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No Kyle Young for Buckeyes today
Hopefully he is not needed against Oral Roberts. I'm more concerned about his availability against UF/VaTech and (hopefully) beyond.
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Hopefully he is not needed against Oral Roberts. I'm more concerned about his availability against UF/VaTech and (hopefully) beyond.
Hey man Oral Roberts can fill it up
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I did too!
The way they finished the year I thought they were primed for March.
They certainly improved. But after that 2nd half comeback in Bloomington to start the season save, they went 0-3 away from East Lansing, with three double digit losses.
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Ick. Need to adjust my brackets before this starts. Thought MSU could make a run.
Yep. Only had them to the R32, but I've revised it to BYU in all brackets. I'm not a UCLA believer this year.
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Yep. Only had them to the R32, but I've revised it to BYU in all brackets. I'm not a UCLA believer this year.
I was going to change mine either way at the end of last night. UCLA already had no depth, and then Juzang got hurt late. MSU looked dead. They airballed two shots well short late. I think BYU will handle things now
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Love the Nat light bleeding in at Hinkle.
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As soon at things start, I often find myself rooting about my bracket. I didn't remember it started last night with MSU.
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If I were playing a pickup game and choosing I would probably choose every player on Arkansas before I chose the first player on Colgate.
Colgate up 8 early.
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Man the basketball has been a bit janky but can't complain about the games so far. Fun.
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Man, Izzo really went after Gabe Brown as they were walking to the locker room and Brown was having none of it.
Really ugly look for Izzo last night. Spartans blow 11 pt halftime lead, Spartan players bickering with each other during TOs, Izzo gets into with player at halftime, Izzo throws tantrum during postgame presser.
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2pm update:
- #7 UF and #10 VaTech in a dogfight with about 5 to go
- #14 Colgate still leading #3 Arkansas with about 15 to go
- #1 Illinois up 18 on #16 Drexel at the half
- #11 UtahSt and 6 TxTech close early
Only surprise so far is Colgate leading Arkansas. That could potentially be great for tOSU as it would remove the largest hurdle between the Buckeyes and the E8.
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Florida can put it away here
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Update: they did not put it away
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Update: they did not put it away
Provided that Ohio State beats Oral Roberts, UF and VaTech going to OT is probably a good thing for the Buckeyes.
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Provided that Ohio State beats Oral Roberts, UF and VaTech going to OT is probably a good thing for the Buckeyes.
I'm not sure who I'm even rooting for. Florida has better players and a big guy, but seem kind of disorganized.
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This Florida Mann could be a problem
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The killer for Colgate:
They hit a three with 5:30 to go in the first half to take a 14 point lead at 33-19. That turned out to be their largest lead of the game.
They hit another three 1:48 into the second half.
In the intervening 7:18 of game time they got outscored 19-0.
That is almost one fifth of the game. In the other 80% of the game Colgate outscored Arkansas 68-66 but going ice-cold for almost eight minutes made this a 17 point blowout win for the Razorbacks.
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Abmas is as advertised
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Abmas is as advertised
Sure is, already 18 points in just the first half!
Buckeyes better get their act together or they are going to be the ninth #2 ever to lose to #15.
Talk about a game of streaks:
- First 1:30, 7-0 Oral Roberts
- 18:30-16:29, 10-0 Ohio State, 10-7 tOSU
- 16:29-9:17, 13-8 Ohio State, 23-15 tOSU
- 9:17-3:29, 17-3 Oral Roberts, 32-26 OR
- Last 3:29, 7-4 Ohio State, 36-33 OR
Yikes, getting held to three points in almost six minutes is a killer. That turned an eight point lead into a six point deficit.
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4pm update:
Completed:
- #1 Illinois easily over #16 Drexel. #1's are now 140-1 all time.
- #3 Arkansas pulled away late over #14 Colgate. #3's are now 120-21 all time.
- #6 TxTech over #11 UtahSt. #6's are now 89-52 all time.
- #7 Florida over #10 VaTech in OT. #7's are now 86-55 all time.
Ongoing:
- #2 Ohio State down 3 to #15 Oral Roberts at the half.
- #1 Baylor up 1 with 7 to go in the first half over #16 Hartford.
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Buckeyes still trailing now at the U8 timeout.
Color me nervous.
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Welp, this is interesting.
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Buckeyes going to OT.
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guys have to stop going for the step back 3 when you don't need 3. drive to basket, draw foul or get a higher % shot. this has happened so many times in conf and ncaa tourny so far.
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They are trying to keep it interesting
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Dag, Bucks gave it away at the end of regulation and that is all she wrote
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Ouch, missed two FT's down three with 0:38 to go.
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Buckeyes are done :(
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Welp. Buckeyes so, so cold all day. I blame Purdue.
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Wow, that just happened. Hopefully the rest of the league does better.
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What a face plant by Ohio State. How does Oral Roberts outmuscle you all game?
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What a face plant by Ohio State. How does Oral Roberts outmuscle you all game?
Buckeyes only have three big guys and one of them was hurt
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#15's are now 9-132 all time. The Buckeyes are the ninth #2 to lose an opening round game after:
- MSU to MTSU in 2016
- G'town to Fla Gulf Coast in 2013
- Dook to Leigh in 2012
- Mizzou to Norfolk St in 2012
- ISU to Hampton in 2001
- USC-e to Coppin St in 1997
- Zona to Santa Clara in 1993
- Syracuse to Richmond in 1991
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poor shot selection at end of regulation cost osu the game. they're getting to basket and eitehr getting good looking shot or fouled every time.
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Ohio State hasn't made it to the second weekend in almost a decade, something needs to change.
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Ohio State hasn't made it to the second weekend in almost a decade, something needs to change.
Shoot no way. This was the most fun I've had watching the team since...I dunno but it's been a while.
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Ohio State hasn't made it to the second weekend in almost a decade, something needs to change.
bama's only made it to the first weekend a couple times in last decade. be careful what you change. lol
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It was not very kind of the NCAA to make Big Ten teams play in Mackey... Most of them only experience losing inside those walls lol...
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It was not very kind of the NCAA to make Big Ten teams play in Mackey... Most of them only experience losing inside those walls lol...
Have to play in Mackey and Kyle Young got the club from from Trevion Williams. Purdue is on the list.
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It was not very kind of the NCAA to make Big Ten teams play in Mackey... Most of them only experience losing inside those walls lol...
they were trying to give them a chance to actually win there.
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Looking at the advanced numbers, OSU shot pretty well from 2, mashed on the boards.
Buckeyes shot badly from 3 and really badly from the line. OR was bad from 3, but better and shot more. OR also hit its FTs.
Game likely won on protecting the ball. OR turned it over on 7.7 percent of its possessions. Ohio State worse than one fifth of them.
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That free throw defense always gets you
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I blame and hate Purdue.
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Didn’t watch the game but I only saw Ohio State for a few brief moments in two separate games this year and during the time I wash them they looked worse than awful. The fact that they were to see tells me that everybody sucks this year
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(https://i.imgur.com/wdGVLUQ.jpg)
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Ohio State, which is good at offense and bad at defense, turned in it's fourth-worst offensive day today.
ORoberts is good at offense and bad at defense, and Ohio State held the Eagles to their sixth-worst offensive day in 27 games. Sports are stupid as hell.
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Congratulations to Oral Roberts, they played the game they needed to win.
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Michigan and maybe Indiana are supposed to be the Buckeye rivals. Purdue has an ability to inconveniently cause problems for the Buckeyes. Knocking out a glue guy like Kyle Young is brutal for the tournament. Let's quietly avoid football conversation. Ugh...Mackey!!!
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Wisconsin is looking good, Purdue not so much.
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Purdue had better stop spotting teams so many 1st half leads.
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The only Big Ten team I want to root for at this point is Illinois.
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This is the Wisconsin that was Big Ten preseason favorite
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YYYEEEEEEEAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH BADGERS!!!!!
(I'll analyze in a bit. For now, that's it)
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Huge steal and dunk by Williams there.
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Love the UNT old school Dallas Mavs jersey color scheme .
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Love the UNT old school Dallas Mavs jersey color scheme .
I thought the North Texas kid was going to make that. As soon as he shot it I called bank from my couch.
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Choke
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Ugh, looking like the B1G wasn't what we thought it was.
-
Tourney losses happen. Teams get hot, things happen in single elimination. What's ugly about the 3 Big Ten losses is that all three were in OT. We played even for 40 minutes. Then in extra time, the supposedly deeper, tough team, got outplayed.
Conference not looking good. And in fairness, our only real OOC competition was the Challenge...and the ACC looks to actually be worse.
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See Purdue you were on the list
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Tourney losses happen. Teams get hot, things happen in single elimination. What's ugly about the 3 Big Ten losses is that all three were in OT. We played even for 40 minutes. Then in extra time, the supposedly deeper, tough team, got outplayed.
Conference not looking good. And in fairness, our only real OOC competition was the Challenge...and the ACC looks to actually be worse.
Good point about OT. All three losses in OT is just miserable luck.
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So, UW did about everything I could've reasonably asked of them for the tournament. They delivered the kind of game they can, plus a little more. UNC also helped them out by being stunningly limited and mildly sloppy.
Now, if they want to do something I can unreasonably ask, that would be super cool.
I also forgot my annual preamble to the tournament. But it's low-key chaos. Teams that are really good get popped for no reason. Sudden holes are discovered by the most random of opposition. Shots fall or don't there are no mulligans. If you're a team that usually gets good seeds and Izzo isn't your coach, you'll be disappointed more often than not. That's the math. Much of the capacity to leave folks feeling good is wrapped up in lower seeds. And lower seeds will upend some folks.
It's to a degree silly to judge a full season by such a wonky event, but I suppose that doesn't tamp the elation when things go right, or the angst when they don't.
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Winthrop blending in w the floor border.
Every year I have to post this, NCAA looking to solve a problem that didn't exist with these stupid floors.
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Winthrop blending in w the floor border.
Every year I have to post this, NCAA looking to solve a problem that didn't exist with these stupid floors.
I have always agreed with this. I miss the unique floors. I liked being able to recognize games taking place in the same location. That's sad, in this weird tournament, the fact that they're using the courts that they have been for the past couple of years, actually serves to remind me that this is actually the tournament
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So it appears the ACC is complete garbage. And considering that comprised the majority of our good non-conference games, I guess that's why we are sitting where we are now.
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Tourney losses happen. Teams get hot, things happen in single elimination.
Great reason not to expand the college football playoff.
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Great reason not to expand the college football playoff.
Depends on what your goal is.
But even given that, The margins are much smaller in basketball than they are in football
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Great reason not to expand the college football playoff.
I do like the fact that the entire football season isn’t dictated by what happens in the postseason. Two of the best and most beloved teams in WVU history were 88 and 93. Both were beaten soundly in their bowls, but those seasons are looked on fondly. The journey to get there is still appreciated. They were still great seasons. The fact that they ended in disappointment didn’t destroy the memory of the whole season.
It’s not like that in basketball. Huggs’ second best team at WVU is probably the 2016 team that got upset in the first round by Stephen F. Austin. If you bring up that team to 9 out of 10 WVU fans they will shrug their shoulders and say, “Meh, they choked when it counted.”
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Am I the only one thinking about Phil Simms and Jeff Hostetler right now?
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Am I the only one thinking about Phil Simms and Jeff Hostetler right now?
My wife asked the same question on our last date night
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My wife asked the same question on our last date night
Lmao
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I also forgot my annual preamble to the tournament. But it's low-key chaos. Teams that are really good get popped for no reason. Sudden holes are discovered by the most random of opposition. Shots fall or don't there are no mulligans. If you're a team that usually gets good seeds and Izzo isn't your coach, you'll be disappointed more often than not. That's the math. Much of the capacity to leave folks feeling good is wrapped up in lower seeds. And lower seeds will upend some folks.
I get this and it is why I use past history to project performance.
It is overly simplistic to just say that #1's should make the F4, #2's should make the E8, #3's and #4's should make the S16, and #5's through #8's should make the R32. Instead, I use past performance. It is of very limited utility when looking at one team but when looking at the nine B1G teams it should work reasonably well.
A highly seeded team getting upset can be compensated for by a low seed pulling off an upset.
If Wisconsin and Rutgers take out Baylor and Houston then the embarrassing tOSU and Purdue upsets will be made up for.
Several pages ago I posted the number of teams from our conference that should make it to each round:
What this group should accomplish:
- 6.15 teams in the R32
- 3.91 teams in the S16
- 2.62 teams in the E8
- 1.36 teams in the F4
- 0.69 teams in the NC
- 0.39 National Champions
The math by round:
R64:
- #1's win 99.29%, we have two so should win 1.99.
- #2's win 94.29%, we have two so should win 1.89.
- #4's win 79.29%, so Purdue should win 0.79.
- #9's win 51.43%, so Wisconsin should win 0.51.
- #10's win 39.29%, we have two so should win 0.78.
- #11's win 37.14%, we have 1/2 so should win .37.
R32:
- #1's win 85.71%, we have two so should win 1.71.
- #2's win 63.57%, we have two so should win 1.27.
- #4's win 47.14%, Purdue should win 0.47.
- #9's win 5%, Wisconsin should win 0.05.
- #10's win 16.43%, we have two so should win 0.33.
- #11's win 15.71%, we have 1/2 so should win 0.08.
S16:
- #1's win 69.29%, we have two so should win 1.39.
- #2's win 45.71%, we have two so should win 0.91.
- #4's win 15%, Purdue should win 0.15.
- #9's win 2.86%, Wisconsin should win 0.03.
- #10's win 5.71%, we have two so should win 0.11.
- #11's win 5.71%, we have 1/2 so should win 0.03.
E8:
- #1's win 41.43%, we have two so should win 0.83.
- #2's win 20%, we have two so should win 0.40.
- #4's win 9.29%, Purdue should win 0.09.
- #9's win 0.71%, Wisconsin should win 0.01.
- #10's win 0.71%, we have two so should win 0.01.
- #11's win 2.86%, we have 1/2 so should win 0.01.
National Semi-Finals:
- #1's win 25%, we have two so should win 0.5.
- #2's win 8.57%, we have two so should win 0.17.
- #4's win 2.14%, Purdue should win 0.02.
- #9's and below have never won at this level.
National Championship:
- #1's win 15.71%, we have two so should win 0.31.
- #2's win 3.57%, we have two so should win 0.07.
- #4's win 0.71%, Purdue should win 0.01.
We are already guaranteed to come up short in the first round even if Michigan, Iowa, and Maryland all win.
To match what our seeds should accomplish we then need four wins in the R32. That would be a lot more likely with a #2 seed and a #4 seed than a #9 and 10.
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Man, you guys are still talking about basketball? smdh...
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Ohio State, which is good at offense and bad at defense, turned in it's fourth-worst offensive day today.
ORoberts is good at offense and bad at defense, and Ohio State held the Eagles to their sixth-worst offensive day in 27 games. Sports are stupid as hell.
seems like scores are down across the board for the tournament.
also, nd didn't make tourney, and clemson/tosu both got tossed in round 1. cfb playoff teams not doing so well in roundball tourney. should i be worried?
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seems like scores are down across the board for the tournament.
also, nd didn't make tourney, and clemson/tosu both got tossed in round 1. cfb playoff teams not doing so well in roundball tourney. should i be worried?
They are a two seed so I see them as a lot like Ohio State, probably not good enough to win it all but good enough that they could get hot and make the final Four but yet suspect enough that they could get cold and lose an opening round game.
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Hm, so Pac 12 basketball huh?
I guess moral victory for taking UCLA to OT, instead of getting slaughtered like Tennessee and Georgetown did
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Watching Florida State attack the rim, and dominate the paint is so much more enjoyable than watching 5 out basketball
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I'm watching this big bearded guy for Eastern Washington just wear out Kansas
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Watching Florida State attack the rim, and dominate the paint is so much more enjoyable than watching 5 out basketball
I watchedbNorth Carolina try to do that yesterday, and let me tell you, I did enjoy it
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I get this and it is why I use past history to project performance.
It is overly simplistic to just say that #1's should make the F4, #2's should make the E8, #3's and #4's should make the S16, and #5's through #8's should make the R32. Instead, I use past performance. It is of very limited utility when looking at one team but when looking at the nine B1G teams it should work reasonably well.
A highly seeded team getting upset can be compensated for by a low seed pulling off an upset.
If Wisconsin and Rutgers take out Baylor and Houston then the embarrassing tOSU and Purdue upsets will be made up for.
I tend to think about these in terms of individual rather than conference elements for whatever reason. I think it might be because a team like Iowa (or maybe Ohio State) sees a 2 seed and thinks "maybe final four" not, "one in three chance we won't make the second weekend." That second stat is a little wild.
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I watchedbNorth Carolina try to do that yesterday, and let me tell you, I did enjoy it
It's certainly the "wrong" way to play. Just like trying to generate a run in baseball is, but I still find both more enjoyable than what the numbers tell us is the way to play.
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It's certainly the "wrong" way to play. Just like trying to generate a run in baseball is, but I still find both more enjoyable than what the numbers tell us is the way to play.
I tend to think it's about doing something well. Like, if you can slash and bully ball well, it's fun as hell, but it's harder to get there. But even a mediocre version of it is hard on the eyes. (If UNC had more skilled bigs or especially guards, they would be fun)
Granted, I've spent 15 years watching a version of five-out and respecting the value of a late clock pick and pop 3 because my less-talented teams just kinda had to do it. And since then, the whole sport has started doing certain things more like Bo Ryan, for better or worse.
I think the spread offense in college/HS is a kinda interesting counterpart. A college spread has a higher ceiling than a power run/WCO or option team, but each is beautiful in its own way. It's a little different because power ball on the hard wood isn't really an underdog tactic exactly, it's just more unusual nowadays. But there are some parallels. (HS is different because the best teams are almost always spread, but if you're middling or bad in terms of talent, you're much better off going power to get the most out of the pieces. Bad HS spreads are BAD to watch)
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I'm watching this big bearded guy for Eastern Washington just wear out Kansas
I think this crystallized something for me about the tournament and the enjoyably factor. We have our annual discussion of the midgets, and i think this sort of speaks to it.
Kansas won by 9. It wasn't heavily threatened for the final five or so minutes. But there's something inherently more interesting about some random school with weird looking brothers (or something like that) pushing Kansas as compared to 17-15 IU or something. Colgate leading Arkansas when it did makes for a more enjoyable game of ball, even if the upsets are perhaps less frequent.
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Hm, so Pac 12 basketball huh?
I guess moral victory for taking UCLA to OT, instead of getting slaughtered like Tennessee and Georgetown did
And Oregon is likely underseeded Vs VCU and USC favored later tonight. Quite possible all 5 Pac 12 berths earning tournament wins. Colorado looked amazing but I doubt that lasts Vs a very athletic and outsized Florida St team next round.
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And Oregon is likely underseeded Vs VCU and USC favored later tonight. Quite possible all 5 Pac 12 berths earning tournament wins. Colorado looked amazing but I doubt that lasts Vs a very athletic and outsized Florida St team next round.
A team that made like 20 threes vs. a team that made zero.
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I tend to think about these in terms of individual rather than conference elements for whatever reason. I think it might be because a team like Iowa (or maybe Ohio State) sees a 2 seed and thinks "maybe final four" not, "one in three chance we won't make the second weekend." That second stat is a little wild.
Yeah, the percentage chance thing isn't terribly useful for one team in one year. I use it for a conference with a bunch of teams in or for one team over a number of years.
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Eastern Washington was a different bunch. They had the brothers, who were unique looking dudes. I also noticed the guys on the bench seemed to never sit down. I didn’t watch the entire game but watched all of the first half and they were standing every time I saw them.
They also did the old school “De-Fense! (Clap, clap) De-Fense! (Clap, clap)” cheer. I’ve seen fans and cheerleaders do that but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team do it. And they did it every possession. It looked like something out of a Disney movie that you would laugh at because it doesn’t happen in real life.
I also noticed whenever Kansas was inbounding the ball the entire bench was bouncing up and down waving their arms like you would if you were guarding the inbounder. Idk. Definitely unique. I wondered if with the lack of fans this year if that was their way of generating excitement and energy.
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I also noticed whenever Kansas was inbounding the ball the entire bench was bouncing up and down waving their arms like you would if you were guarding the inbounder. Idk. Definitely unique. I wondered if with the lack of fans this year if that was their way of generating excitement and energy.
Yes, and I loved it. It would be annoying under normal circumstances.
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I've noticed a bunch of hollering and cheering this tournament. Yeah, it would be cringe worthy, much in the way I think about how annoying it is in college softball.
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I've noticed a bunch of hollering and cheering this tournament. Yeah, it would be cringe worthy, much in the way I think about how annoying it is in college softball.
Everything about college softball is irritating. From that, to watching it, to the fact that it gets more coverage than better women's sports, because it's viewed as the women's equivalent of one of the big four men's sports. Just in general the fact that NCAA softball and basketball get more attention than volleyball and soccer, tells me people aren't watching
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Everything about college softball is irritating. From that, to watching it, to the fact that it gets more coverage than better women's sports, because it's viewed as the women's equivalent of one of the big four men's sports. Just in general the fact that NCAA softball and basketball get more attention than volleyball and soccer, tells me people aren't watching
I wonder how much of that is scheduling. Spring needs more filler. Volleyball and soccer run against the CFB juggernaut. Plus, the viewing experience of volleyball is mildly less is a bit more foreign to some folks.
FWIW, UW trying to win a women's hockey title tonight. Men's bracket is out tomorrow.
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VCU forfeits due to COVID. Oregon rolls.
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I tell my daughter all the time softball is the only team sport I know of where you are allowed to talk trash and not be penalized for it. Teams often have organized cheers directed at a specific opposing player. I honestly don’t think it’s meant to be mean spirited but it’s common and just seems to be an accepted part of the game.
If a pitcher is a high or low with a pitch they have a cheer for that. If the a runner steals a base they have a cheer directed at the pitcher for falling asleep. If the catcher comes up and looks back a runner on a base they have this cheer where they basically say, “She won’t throw it, she’s too scared, she’s too scared.”
When I coached I told my girls they couldn’t have a cheer directed at the other team, only ones meant to support our team. It made my daughter so mad. Lol.
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UVA goes down.
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So.......why do women play softball? What is it about a baseball that they can't do? I always found it odd.
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UVA goes down.
The ACC's disaster continues. So far:
- #10 VaTech lost to #7 UF
- #9 GaTech lost to #8 Loyola
- #8 UNC lost to #9 Wisconsin
- #7 Clemson lost to #10 Rutgers
- #4 UVA lost to #13 Ohio
- #11 Syracuse beat #6 SDSU
- #4 FSU beat #13 UNC-Greensboro
2-5
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First round and play-in for our league:
- #11 MSU lost to #11 UCLA
- #2 Ohio State lost to #15 Oral Roberts
- #4 Purdue lost to #13 North Texas
- #1 Illinois beat #16 Drexel
- #9 Wisconsin beat #8 UNC
- #10 Rutgers beat #7 Clemson
- #1 Michigan beat #16 Texas Southern
- #2 Iowa beat #15 Grand Canyon
- #10 Maryland beat #7 UCONN
6-3 isn't bad but the problem is that we have two minor upset wins and two bad upset losses.
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Abilene Christian takes out Texas. Keeps the Big 12 from going 7-0 in the first round.
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Second round games:
- #1 Illinois-7 vs #8 Loyola
- #1 Michigan-5 vs #8 LSU
- #2 Iowa-4 vs #7 Oregon
- #10 Maryland +4.5 vs #2 Alabama
- #9 Wisconsin +6 vs #1 Baylor
- #10 Rutgers +8 vs #2 Houston
Three favorites and three underdogs. Good luck Illini, Wolverines, Hawkeyes, Teresa, Badgers, and Scarlet Knights!
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First round by seed:
- #1's went 4-0 over #16's
- #2's went 3-1 over #15's
- #3's went 3-1 over #14's
- #4's went 2-2 vs #13's
- #5's went 3-1 over #12's
- #6's went 2-2 vs #11's
- #7's went 2-2 vs #10's
- #8's went 2-2 vs #9's
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Abilene Christian takes out Texas. Keeps the Big 12 from going 7-0 in the first round.
Sorry for partying.
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I tell my daughter all the time softball is the only team sport I know of where you are allowed to talk trash and not be penalized for it. Teams often have organized cheers directed at a specific opposing player. I honestly don’t think it’s meant to be mean spirited but it’s common and just seems to be an accepted part of the game.
If a pitcher is a high or low with a pitch they have a cheer for that. If the a runner steals a base they have a cheer directed at the pitcher for falling asleep. If the catcher comes up and looks back a runner on a base they have this cheer where they basically say, “She won’t throw it, she’s too scared, she’s too scared.”
When I coached I told my girls they couldn’t have a cheer directed at the other team, only ones meant to support our team. It made my daughter so mad. Lol.
That's pretty much all women's sports. Chatty and catty.
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I tell my daughter all the time softball is the only team sport I know of where you are allowed to talk trash and not be penalized for it. Teams often have organized cheers directed at a specific opposing player. I honestly don’t think it’s meant to be mean spirited but it’s common and just seems to be an accepted part of the game.
If a pitcher is a high or low with a pitch they have a cheer for that. If the a runner steals a base they have a cheer directed at the pitcher for falling asleep. If the catcher comes up and looks back a runner on a base they have this cheer where they basically say, “She won’t throw it, she’s too scared, she’s too scared.”
When I coached I told my girls they couldn’t have a cheer directed at the other team, only ones meant to support our team. It made my daughter so mad. Lol.
Bless you for this.
I have a somewhat engrained memory of being at a HS basketball game that was out of hand and in the last 70 seconds or so, when we all kinda just wanted to hit the road, some parent screaming to he kid on the team that was ahead "SHOOT IT." And I'm not the biggest stickler for "class" or whatever, but that irked me. That person was an adult.They don't need stupid bloodlust to rub it in.
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Loyola outplaying the Illini so far.
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I wonder how much IU offering Moser.
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Illini need to get some stops. Defense looking ragged
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I'm thinking this is the last time I'll see this UW team this season. Hopefully they show some fight.
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I'm thinking this is the last time I'll see this UW team this season. Hopefully they show some fight.
I think they got a shot. Baylor has been a bit messy to end the season. Wiscy should get good looks and just have to hit them
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Ugh
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Illini did get jobbed a bit by getting a top ten team on KenPom in the second round
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idk what kenpom is, but I noticed some closer-than-the-seedings-suggest betting lines on games today. Illinois was one of them. And they lost. So there's that.
B1G basketball - fun stuff. Meh, OSU paved the way for my Gators to reach the Sweet 16, but nobody cares. We just want our new QB to play well in the fall.
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idk what kenpom is, but I noticed some closer-than-the-seedings-suggest betting lines on games today. Illinois was one of them. And they lost. So there's that.
B1G basketball - fun stuff. Meh, OSU paved the way for my Gators to reach the Sweet 16, but nobody cares. We just want our new QB to play well in the fall.
So, if I gave you a choice between Florida winning 5 titles in basketball or one in football over the next 10 years which would you choose?
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Of course, if Wisconsin wasn't planning on playing defense it doesn't matter
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Of course, if Wisconsin wasn't planning on playing defense it doesn't matter
Ehhh, Baylor can stress them a lot of ways. The turnovers to points is irritating, but the Bears are a hard solve. They pick, they roll, you have to pay attention to the guards, you have to rotate, the forwards create havoc or the other guards are open.
They have two 2021 top-30 draft prospects and two other good guards. Plus some nice complementary forwards.
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Illini did get jobbed a bit by getting a top ten team on KenPom in the second round
Baylor caught a top-12 KenPom team, and alas, it's working out.
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I tell my daughter all the time softball is the only team sport I know of where you are allowed to talk trash and not be penalized for it.
"Hey,Ump you're missing a good game"
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Baylor, ALWAYS with an answer. Dang, they're pretty good.
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B1G seeds and what they should accomplish based on past results for those seeds:
- #1: Michigan, Illinois
- #2: Iowa, Ohio State
- #4: Purdue
- #9: Wisconsin
- #10: Maryland, Rutgers
- #11: Michigan State
What this group should accomplish:
- 6.15 teams in the R32
- 3.91 teams in the S16
- 2.62 teams in the E8
- 1.36 teams in the F4
- 0.69 teams in the NC
- 0.39 National Champions
Based on our initial seeds we "should" put almost four teams in the S16.
We now only have four teams left so all four would need to win to approximate what we "should" accomplish.
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So, if I gave you a choice between Florida winning 5 titles in basketball or one in football over the next 10 years which would you choose?
That's easy. And I think 99/100 Gators agree with me.
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Late game Syracuse giving me Ohio State flashbacks
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If Rutger pulls this off, with Badge give them their 'S' back?
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Wouldn't it be funny for Rutgers to be the B10's saving grace? lol
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Obviously that Purdue game was a gutshot. I thought Purdue had a puncher's chance at another S16, and to get bounced like that just hurts.
That said, there's a lot of missing context if you just look at a 4 getting upset by a 13.
The epitaph on this season reads: "Ahead of schedule"
Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, was expecting Purdue to come into a stacked conference, finish 4th in the regular season, and be a 4 seed in the tourney.
Purdue fans were simply hoping to MAKE the tourney. 2019-20 looked to be on the wrong side of the bubble, with a few BTT wins probably needed to get Purdue into the dance, but it ended up being moot as the tourney was canceled.
- Then we lost Matt Haarms and Nojel Eastern to transfer, our only seniors.
- We missed on Hunter Dickinson and our consolation prize was a gigantic Canadian that found basketball late in life because he grew too tall for hockey and baseball, and then our other backup (Emmanuel Dowuona) missed the entire season for medical reasons.
- Our 4 spot was to be manned by Aaron Wheeler, a RS Jr whose previous season was highly underwhelming, and Mason Gillis, a RS frosh who hadn't played much competitive basketball in 2 years because of injury issues.
- That left a number of freshmen who we knew were going to play significant minutes out of necessity, and we just hoped they'd survive and learn.
And what happened? 4 of those freshmen won Big Ten Freshman of the Week honors, some multiple times. Edey was a force. Jaden Ivey looks like a game-changer. Gillis and Newman... Well they survived well enough to be consistent role players.
This team wasn't expected to do much... They dramatically exceeded those expectations.
So the season ended on a sour note... That sucks. It really sucks. But given the perspective, the season was more successful than any of us thought coming in. And the future looks VERY bright.
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Wouldn't it be funny for Rutgers to be the B10's saving grace? lol
Profoundly funny.
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How the hell did Purdue lose to this team?
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Oral Damn Roberts
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Oral Damn Roberts
Ohio State and Florida played for titles in football and basketball in the same year.
Now ORU has eliminated both.
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Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, was expecting Purdue to come into a stacked conference, finish 4th in the regular season, and be a 4 seed in the tourney.
Unfortunately Purdue didn't, our league wasn't stacked. I think it was @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) who pointed out that most of our OOC success was against the ACC which turned out to be hot garbage.
In retrospect Purdue finished fourth in a meh league.
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Unfortunately Purdue didn't, our league wasn't stacked. I think it was @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) who pointed out that most of our OOC success was against the ACC which turned out to be hot garbage.
In retrospect Purdue finished fourth in a meh league.
So, the metrics still say the Big Ten on balance was the best conference. Maybe that's because they kicked the hell out of the ACC, but those metrics likewise adjust for competition.
I assume you're using the lack of playing to expectations as some evidence of this, and in the end, I think that might be missing the forest for the trees a bit. Even though we have the adjusted numbers about how far teams will go, in the end, having more high seeds builds a mechanism to disappoint. All the success is wrapped up in smaller conferences. The second-best conference (the Big 12) lost 3 seeds in the first and second rounds and is waiting to see on OK State. I guess one could say the Pac-12 is better than we thought, but I think in the end, the Big Dance is just too jagged and weird to be a great indicator of conference strength.
The Big Ten was still, on balance, stacked. It turned around and didn't do well in the dance, but that happens. And sometimes the league ain't that strong and gets a couple of teams rolling deep into the tournament. It's just weird like that.
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Oh well.
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It wouldn’t be WVU if they didn’t get the best draw I can ever remember, that got even better when Illinois lost, and then crap out out in the 2nd round against an 11 seed.
Sigh.
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Re: The Big Ten - the strength of the league wasn't that they were better than everyone else, it was that they had a lot of good teams. Sparty and UCLA was a pretty even matchup, and bully for them. But UCLA came in 4th in the PAC and Sparty came in 9th in the B1G. Does the amount of good teams skew with the stats? Perhaps, I'm no expert there. Definitely inflated the SOS, which in turn made the B1G resumes good.
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Anyone ready to hire Porter Moser yet?
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Anyone ready to hire Porter Moser yet?
Why risk getting hired just to be fired?
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Anyone ready to hire Porter Moser yet?
Someone should, though if he fails, the full length of his kinda boom or bust resume will be brought up.
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Someone should, though if he fails, the full length of his kinda boom or bust resume will be brought up.
Rick Majerus was an ass, but he was a hell of a coach, and I don't discount what he may have learned working under him in between head coaching stints.
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Obviously the Big Ten hasn't shown well in this tournament... But with some of these upsets, do we really believe it's all that strong of an indictment of the league?
I haven't watched most of them closely, except obviously the Purdue game. Credit goes to UNT's gameplan, because they did a great job keeping Purdue's bigs from establishing themselves. But beyond that, did they really "outplay" Purdue? I don't think so... I think they out shot Purdue. Purdue pulled off the "look like you forgot what time the game starts for the first 20 minutes and then come out after halftime a completely different team", and that has plagued them all year.
UNT was 50% from 2pt and 42.9% from deep. Purdue was 41% from 2pt and 30% from deep. Purdue outrebounded UNT 39 to 32, with a massive lead in ORB of 20 compared to 8, and all other statistical categories were pretty close.
It came down to getting the ball through the hoop, and when you have a terrible shooting day while your opponent is making everything, it's not going to end well.
Even with UNT having the right gameplan, I'll bet if you put those two teams into a simulation, Purdue wins 8 of 10.
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First round through 36 tournaments (1985-2021 skipping 2020):
- 143-1, 99.31%
- 135-9, 93.75%
- 122-22, 84.72%
- 113-31, 78.47%
- 93-51, 64.58%
- 90-54, 62.50%
- 87-57, 60.42%
- 70-74, 48.61%
- 74-70, 51.39%
- 57-87, 39.58%
- 54-90, 37.50%
- 51-93, 35.42%
- 31-113, 21.53%
- 22-122, 15.28%
- 9-135, 6.25%
- 1-143, 0.69%
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So, the metrics still say the Big Ten on balance was the best conference. Maybe that's because they kicked the hell out of the ACC, but those metrics likewise adjust for competition.
I assume you're using the lack of playing to expectations as some evidence of this, and in the end, I think that might be missing the forest for the trees a bit. Even though we have the adjusted numbers about how far teams will go, in the end, having more high seeds builds a mechanism to disappoint. All the success is wrapped up in smaller conferences. The second-best conference (the Big 12) lost 3 seeds in the first and second rounds and is waiting to see on OK State. I guess one could say the Pac-12 is better than we thought, but I think in the end, the Big Dance is just too jagged and weird to be a great indicator of conference strength.
The Big Ten was still, on balance, stacked. It turned around and didn't do well in the dance, but that happens. And sometimes the league ain't that strong and gets a couple of teams rolling deep into the tournament. It's just weird like that.
I get all of this and I want to point out a couple things.
First, I'm not comparing to chalk, I'm comparing to past performance of teams with those seeds. You have a good point, when comparing to chalk the high seeds are almost always going to disappoint and the low seeds are almost always going to impress.
Second, given the single elimination format of the tournament there are always going to be teams that get hot/cold and over/under perform. Looking at nine teams that should balance out. Ie, if tOSU and Purdue lose first round upsets as 2/4 seeds that is fine if MSU and Maryland go far as 11/10 seeds.
In the case of the B1G this year we saw some of that. Maryland and Rutgers winning first round games mostly made up for Ohio State and Purdue.
Based on past performance of seeds, our league should have put 6.15 teams in the R32 and we got 6 so that is only down 0.15, no big deal.
I'm anticipating that dropping off a lot in the next few rounds. Based on past performance of seeds, our league should put 3.91 teams in the S16. Welp, we've already missed that. We have none in and three playing for spots today. Best-case-scenario is that we get three which is 0.91 below expectations.
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Obviously the Big Ten hasn't shown well in this tournament... But with some of these upsets, do we really believe it's all that strong of an indictment of the league?
My answer is individually no but collectively yes.
So far our league has suffered six tournament losses:
- MSU lost in OT after having led by 14 and the #11 that they lost to is still playing.
- tOSU lost in OT after having led by 8 and the #15 that they lost to also beat #7 to advance to the S16.
- Purdue lost in OT.
- Illinois lost to a #8 seed that was apparently closer to their KenPom than we thought.
- #9 Wisconsin was reasonably competitive with #1 Baylor before losing.
- #10 Rutgers led nearly the entire second half including by double digits before losing by three to #2 Houston.
Three were in OT and another was by one possession. Ie, we are basically four bad bounces from flipping that script completely.
Those aren't terrible losses individually but collectively our league should have done better.
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Even with UNT having the right gameplan, I'll bet if you put those two teams into a simulation, Purdue wins 8 of 10.
Every time I hear this about basketball, I feel queezy considering the exact same thing would happen in an expanded football playoff.
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Oral Damn Roberts
FWIW:
Oral Roberts is only the second ever #15 to advance to the second weekend and they'll have a chance to make history.
No #13 or lower has ever won a second weekend NCAA Tournament game. Three chances remain this year:
- #15 Oral Roberts if they beat #3 Arkansas.
- #13 Ohio if they beat #5 Creighton today and #3/6 Kansas/USC.
- #14 Abilene Christian if they beat #11 UCLA today and #2/10 Alabama/Maryland.
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My answer is individually no but collectively yes.
So far our league has suffered six tournament losses:
- MSU lost in OT after having led by 14 and the #11 that they lost to is still playing.
- tOSU lost in OT after having led by 8 and the #15 that they lost to also beat #7 to advance to the S16.
- Purdue lost in OT.
- Illinois lost to a #8 seed that was apparently closer to their KenPom than we thought.
- #9 Wisconsin was reasonably competitive with #1 Baylor before losing.
- #10 Rutgers led nearly the entire second half including by double digits before losing by three to #2 Houston.
Three were in OT and another was by one possession. Ie, we are basically four bad bounces from flipping that script completely.
Those aren't terrible losses individually but collectively our league should have done better.
The only point I'd make about OSU and Purdue is that we can't use "they were in OT" and calling them bad bounces... Neither team should have been in OT against undermatched seed lines, if the seeding was anywhere near accurate. And if the seeding was accurate, Illinois was terrible.
MSU was a play-in game, so I'll give that one the bad bounce treatment. That could easily have gone the other way. Rutgers overperformed to be within 3 of Houston, so that's a positive. Wisconsin blew the doors off UNC, so that's also overperforming.
OSU and Purdue escaping round one wouldn't flip the script, unless you look at it PURELY from a W/L perspective. And I know you're more astute than that. When you're a 2 or 4 seed, you're simply supposed to win, and win handily. A close win isn't a good look at all. Sure beats a close loss though, for the fan!
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Tournament performance over time by teams.
I'll do Purdue because we seem to talk a lot about their Tournament woes and Ohio State because they are my team:
Purdue has been to six straight Tournaments:
- #4 seed in 2021, lost opener.
- #3 seed in 2019, lost in E8.
- #2 seed in 2018, lost in S16.
- #4 seed in 2017, lost in S16.
- #5 seed in 2016, lost opener.
- #9 seed in 2015, lost opener.
Comparing what those seeds typically accomplish to what Purdue actually accomplished:
- Purdue made three R32's, should be 4.51, down 1.51.
- Purdue made three S16's, should be 2.49, up 0.51.
- Purdue made one E8, should be 1.11, down 0.11.
- Purdue made zero F4's, should be 0.56, down 0.56.
- Purdue made zero NC's, should be 0.23, down 0.23.
- Purdue won zero NC's, should be 0.08, down 0.08.
Ohio State has been to three straight Tournaments:
- #2 seed in 2021, lost opener.
- #11 seed in 2019, lost in R32.
- #5 seed in 2018, lost in R32.
Comparing what those seeds typically accomplish to what Ohio State actually accomplished:
- Ohio State made 2 R32's, should be 2.01, down 0.01.
- Ohio State made zero S16's, should be 1.13, down 1.13.
- Ohio State made zero E8's, should be 0.58, down 0.58.
- Ohio State made zero F4's, should be 0.28, down 0.28.
- Ohio State made zero NC's, should be 0.11, down 0.11.
- Ohio State won zero NC's, should be 0.04, down 0.04.
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The only point I'd make about OSU and Purdue is that we can't use "they were in OT" and calling them bad bounces... Neither team should have been in OT against undermatched seed lines, if the seeding was anywhere near accurate. And if the seeding was accurate, Illinois was terrible.
MSU was a play-in game, so I'll give that one the bad bounce treatment. That could easily have gone the other way. Rutgers overperformed to be within 3 of Houston, so that's a positive. Wisconsin blew the doors off UNC, so that's also overperforming.
OSU and Purdue escaping round one wouldn't flip the script, unless you look at it PURELY from a W/L perspective. And I know you're more astute than that. When you're a 2 or 4 seed, you're simply supposed to win, and win handily. A close win isn't a good look at all. Sure beats a close loss though, for the fan!
I do get that. Obviously, Ohio State winning in OT as a #2 wouldn't be a great look, but I didn't credit/debit the conference for Illinois winning big (29 points) in their first round game either.
I'm only looking at W's and L's because I want to be objective. What if Illinois had pulled their starters sooner against Drexel and "only" won by 14? So what?
I don't think we care because the format suggests that we shouldn't. Look, if Purdue won six NCAA Tournament games each by one point in double OT they'd be the National Champions and nobody would say "yeah but they only beat the #16 seed by a point".
Another example is Thad Matta's first great Ohio State team (Oden, Connelly). They BARELY survived a #8 in the second round then won three more games before losing in the NC. I don't think anybody thinks less of that team because they almost lost in the second round.
The nature of the format is that close doesn't count for anything either way.
More specifically to this year, suppose tOSU and Purdue had pulled their openers out in OT then beaten Florida/Villanova in the second round. We wouldn't be talking about the too-close wins over Oral Roberts and North Texas, we'd be talking about the wins over Florida/Villanova, being in the S16, and upcoming games against Arkansas/Baylor. Nobody would care that our teams "almost" lost their openers.
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Hawks down 10 at the half
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Oregon is going to score 100 and that’s probably lowballing it.
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"Hey,Ump you're missing a good game"
When I used to umpire high School Baseball/Softball. I have responded to this comment by saying where is it because it certainly isn't on this field.
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Rick Majerus was an ass, but he was a hell of a coach, and I don't discount what he may have learned working under him in between head coaching stints.
That's true, but two tournaments in 10 years at Loyola will be a thing if it falls flat.
Ironically, there's no good hook like this with Archie. He just didn't work.
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Those aren't terrible losses individually but collectively our league should have done better.
I think this was kinda my thought. They should've done better in the dance, but the dance is a generally middling arbiter of conference strength. It's still fair to say it was a tough conference. Tough conferences flounder in the dance every year. It's part of the thing.
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Every time I hear this about basketball, I feel queezy considering the exact same thing would happen in an expanded football playoff.
I mean, we have it happen during the extended "playoff" that is the regular season. That is until we stack teams up by loss number, make our tie-breaking choices and see how it shakes out. (I still want to make jokes about that A&M team)
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I wish the ruling body had the balls to go all uncompromised computers back in 1998.
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I'm not sure any team in the country would win more than 1 against Gonzaga in a best of 7.
This feels like an A+ game from Oklahoma, who has some big wins this year...and they are down 12.
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anyone else disappointed in the Big Ten?
seems like the conference is not representing to the true strength.
do we have two teams left and they have to win today to go to the sweet 16
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good luck terps.
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Ohio State hasn't made it to the second weekend in almost a decade, something needs to change.
Now Iowa is working towards their 3rd decade. Tom Davis' final season was 1999, the last time Iowa made it to 16. Fans wanted a change because that wasn't enough and we got one. Be careful what you want, you just may get it.
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Now Iowa is working towards their 3rd decade. Tom Davis' final season was 1999, the last time Iowa made it to 16. Fans wanted a change because that wasn't enough and we got one. Be careful what you want, you just may get it.
That's what I say to all the clowns who want Greg Gard fired.
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Now Iowa is working towards their 3rd decade. Tom Davis' final season was 1999, the last time Iowa made it to 16. Fans wanted a change because that wasn't enough and we got one. Be careful what you want, you just may get it.
I get this and Holtman has only been in Columbus for four years including the canceled tournament in 2020 so I'm certainly not advocating for a change right now.
That said, ignoring 2020, Holtman has achieved a #2, a #5, and a #11 seed with two R32 losses, an R64 loss, no B1G titles (regular season or Tournament). That isn't "fire him now" futility, but it also isn't "give him a ten year extension and make him one of the highest paid coaches in America" success either.
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anyone else disappointed in the Big Ten?
seems like the conference is not representing to the true strength.
do we have two teams left and they have to win today to go to the sweet 16
There were very few OOC matchups for the conference, except with the ACC. And that appears to be the one P5 conference that's worse.
When the inputs are bad, and there's no opportunity to adjust, this is what you get.
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seems like the conference is not representing to the true strength.
what makes you believe this isn't the "true" strength?
hard to tell if a conference is good if there are no non-con games to weigh
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Tournament performance over time by teams.
I'll do Purdue because we seem to talk a lot about their Tournament woes and Ohio State because they are my team:
Purdue has been to six straight Tournaments:
- #4 seed in 2021, lost opener.
- #3 seed in 2019, lost in E8.
- #2 seed in 2018, lost in S16.
- #4 seed in 2017, lost in S16.
- #5 seed in 2016, lost opener.
- #9 seed in 2015, lost opener.
Comparing what those seeds typically accomplish to what Purdue actually accomplished:
- Purdue made three R32's, should be 4.51, down 1.51.
- Purdue made three S16's, should be 2.49, up 0.51.
- Purdue made one E8, should be 1.11, down 0.11.
- Purdue made zero F4's, should be 0.56, down 0.56.
- Purdue made zero NC's, should be 0.23, down 0.23.
- Purdue won zero NC's, should be 0.08, down 0.08.
Ohio State has been to three straight Tournaments:
- #2 seed in 2021, lost opener.
- #11 seed in 2019, lost in R32.
- #5 seed in 2018, lost in R32.
Comparing what those seeds typically accomplish to what Ohio State actually accomplished:
- Ohio State made 2 R32's, should be 2.01, down 0.01.
- Ohio State made zero S16's, should be 1.13, down 1.13.
- Ohio State made zero E8's, should be 0.58, down 0.58.
- Ohio State made zero F4's, should be 0.28, down 0.28.
- Ohio State made zero NC's, should be 0.11, down 0.11.
- Ohio State won zero NC's, should be 0.04, down 0.04.
It's simple.
Purdue is one of the elite teams in college basketball. Not exactly blue blood status, but a team that for the last 40 years (Gene Keady + Matt Painter) has always been seen as say a top 25 program.
Purdue hasn't been to the Final Four since 1980, the year before Keady took over. Big Dog getting hurt wrestling with a teammate between the S16 and E8 games, and not looking the same. 2000 running into Wisconsin for the 4th time that season. 2010 Hummel tearing his ACL against Minnesota when Purdue looked like a lock for a 1 seed. 2011 Hummel tearing his ACL again right before the season on what was supposed to be Purdue's revenge tour. 2018 Purdue coming in as a 2 seed and having Haas break his elbow in the R64. 2019 Purdue leading the eventual NC Virginia Cavaliers as the clock ticked 00:00 in the E8 game--but they had a miracle shot in the air and made it after the buzzer to tie.
The reason that Purdue is considered sub-par in the tournament is that any program with that history SHOULD have gone to a F4 in the last 40 years... And we haven't.
You bring up the last 6 tournaments, where we've performed roughly to seed. Maybe a tiny bit below seed, but certainly not overperformed our seed.
Here's a list of some of the teams that have made a F4 in those 6 tournaments:
- #7 seed MSU (2015)
- #10 seed Syracuse (2016)
- #7 seed USCe (2017)
- #11 seed Loyola-Chicago (2018)
- #5 seed Auburn (2019)
In 40 years Purdue has squandered high seeds and never had that great low-seed run, to make the F4.
Can't we just have nice things ONE year?
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There were very few OOC matchups for the conference, except with the ACC. And that appears to be the one P5 conference that's worse.
When the inputs are bad, and there's no opportunity to adjust, this is what you get.
How does it impact the two B1G teams left?
So far, our teams are 6-7. #1 seed Michigan and #10 seed Maryland remain, their paths:
#1 Michigan plays #8 LSU tonight at 710. If they win, they'll face the winner of #4 FSU vs #5 Colorado in the S16. If they win that, they'll get one of:
- #2 Alabama
- #10 Maryland
- #11 UCLA, or
- #14 Abilene Christian
In the E8.
#10 Maryland plays #2 Alabama tonight at 845. If they win, they'll face the winner of #11 UCLA vs #14 Abilene Christian in the S16. If they win that they'll get one of:
- #1 Michigan
- #4 FSU
- #5 Colorado, or
- #8 LSU
In the E8.
If either were to win the E8 game and advance to the F4 they would play one of:
- #1 Gonzaga
- #3 Kansas
- #5 Creighton
- #6 USC
- #7 Oregon, or
- #13 Ohio
In the F4.
Michigan is a better team and they have an easier match-up tonight but if Maryland can get past Alabama they would get a much easier S16 match-up.
Ideally, they'll play each other in the E8 and our league will be 10-8 heading into the F4 to finish:
- 10-9 with a semi-final loss, or
- 11-9 with a CG loss, or
- 12-8 with an NC.
If both win tonight we only need one more win to finish .500 in Tournament games.
If only one wins tonight then we need that one to make the F4 to finish .500 in Tournament games.
If both lose tonight we finish a pathetic 6-9 as a league.
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So we are down to Michigan and Maryland, each of which still has the possibility of being eliminated in the Thirsty 32. Helluva showing...
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Pretty clear that the NCAA tourney is just the undercard to the Pac 12 tourney
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Pretty clear that the NCAA tourney is just the undercard to the Pac 12 tourney
Those guys came to play
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The Wolverines aren't looking so hot in the early going.
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There were very few OOC matchups for the conference, except with the ACC. And that appears to be the one P5 conference that's worse.
When the inputs are bad, and there's no opportunity to adjust, this is what you get.
I mean, every year, even with good inputs, this thing is random as hell. Crappy conferences do well. Good conferences do crappy. That's just the beast.
IIRC, the Big Ten had a year it was so bad it managed four bids (OSU might have been on probation). It had three teams in the Elite 8 and two in the final four. The next year, it was considered notably stronger and I think got no one past the second round. The tournament is not a a great reflection of anything but which league did better in the tournament.
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There were very few OOC matchups for the conference, except with the ACC. And that appears to be the one P5 conference that's worse.
Not sure why, ELA, but that made me laugh a lot. Pithy comment...
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Entertaining, fast paced shootout between LSU & Michigan to finish out first half. Wolverines have weathered the best of LSU’s shooting percentage; doors blown open second half. Meanwhile, these halftime commentaries are horrible. Wally Sczcerbiak looks like he’s devolving into a Werewolf. Needs a Scooby snack.
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Entertaining, fast paced shootout between LSU & Michigan to finish out first half. Wolverines have weathered the best of LSU’s shooting percentage; doors blown open second half. Meanwhile, these halftime commentaries are horrible. Wally Sczcerbiak looks like he’s devolving into a Werewolf. Needs a Scooby snack.
I think he looks like a Dick Tracy villain
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Heh I went to Miami when Wally was there. My favorite memory was when he came back to Miami (while he was in the NBA) to work out at the rec center and they wouldn't let him in because he wasn't a student.
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(https://detroit.cbslocal.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/15909782/2012/06/wally.jpg?w=1024&h=576&crop=1)
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Heh I went to Miami when Wally was there. My favorite memory was when he came back to Miami (while he was in the NBA) to work out at the rec center and they wouldn't let him in because he wasn't a student.
You gotta be kidding.
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You gotta be kidding.
LOL I'm not - I worked in the food court so I was watching him get more and more exacerbated. He was easily the most famous Miami athlete at the time and here was this lady giving him shit. Actually, the problem might have been he didn't have his ID, which is also funny because everyone in the building knew who he was.
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That’s a great story. It would be even better if his name was on a building somewhere, albeit on a sign about a mile long.
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Alabama is beating Maryland.... in Basketball?
(https://media4.giphy.com/media/eaECZB7V6GACc/200.gif)
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The only decent game today was Michigan-LSU?
Bummer
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Wow, USC basically doubling KU at the half.
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How many upsets were there compared to normal?
- There are three #1 seeds in the S16, the average was 3.43.
- There are two #2 seeds in the S16, the average was 2.54.
- There is one #3 seed in the S16, the average was 2.11.
- There is one #4 seed in the S16, the average was 1.89.
- There are two #5 seeds in the S16, the average was 1.34.
- There is one #6 seed in the S16, the average was 1.2.
- There is one #7 seed in the S16, the average was 0.77.
- There is one #8 seed in the S16, the average was 0.37.
- There are no #9 seeds in the S16, the average was 0.2.
- There are no #10 seeds in the S16, the average was 0.65.
- There are two #11 seeds in the S16, the average was 0.63.
- There is one #12 seed in the S16, the average was 0.6.
- There are no #13 seeds in the S16, the average was 0.17.
- There are no #14 seeds in the S16, the average was 0.06.
- There is one #15 seed in the S16, the average was 0.03.
- There are no #16 seeds in the S16 and there never have been.
In total, about three top-4 seeds are missing, there are about 2.5 extra #11's and below, and there is about 0.5 extra #5-#10 seeds.
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The 2020 cancelation had an interesting impact on some of the longer current consecutive NCAA appearance streaks.
Longest current consecutive NCAA appearance streaks:
- 31, Kansas, 1990-present.
- 23, Michigan State, 1998-present.
- 22, Gonzaga, 1999-present.
- 10, North Carolina, 2011-present.
- 8 Villanova, 2013-present.
- 7 Virginia, 2014-present.
- 6 Purdue, 2015-present.
- 5 Iona, 2016-present.
- 5 Michigan, 2016-present.
Had there been a 2020 NCAA Tournament Kansas, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Villanova, Virginia, and Michigan would easily have made the field. Had there been a 2020 Tournament their streaks would all be longer by one. That leaves UNC, Purdue, and Iona.
North Carolina:
The Tar Heels were knocked out of the 2020 ACC Tournament by losing to Syracuse. That loss dropped them to 14-19 so they had zero chance at a 2020 bid and, had there been a 2020 Tournament, their streak would have ended at 9.
Iona:
The Gaels were knocked out of the 2020 MAAC Tournament by losing to St Peters. That loss dropped them to 12-17 so they had zero chance at a 2020 bid and, had there been a 2020 Tournament, their streak would have ended at 4.
Purdue:
The Boilermakers finished the 2019/2020 Regular Season at 16-15 and never played a BTT game due to cancelation. They could have made it with a solid run in the BTT, but it was far from guaranteed.
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Purdue:
The Boilermakers finished the 2019/2020 Regular Season at 16-15 and never played a BTT game due to cancelation. They could have made it with a solid run in the BTT, but it was far from guaranteed.
(https://i.imgur.com/D4yTGYf.png)
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It's simple.
Purdue is one of the elite teams in college basketball. Not exactly blue blood status, but a team that for the last 40 years (Gene Keady + Matt Painter) has always been seen as say a top 25 program.
Purdue hasn't been to the Final Four since 1980, the year before Keady took over. Big Dog getting hurt wrestling with a teammate between the S16 and E8 games, and not looking the same. 2000 running into Wisconsin for the 4th time that season. 2010 Hummel tearing his ACL against Minnesota when Purdue looked like a lock for a 1 seed. 2011 Hummel tearing his ACL again right before the season on what was supposed to be Purdue's revenge tour. 2018 Purdue coming in as a 2 seed and having Haas break his elbow in the R64. 2019 Purdue leading the eventual NC Virginia Cavaliers as the clock ticked 00:00 in the E8 game--but they had a miracle shot in the air and made it after the buzzer to tie.
The reason that Purdue is considered sub-par in the tournament is that any program with that history SHOULD have gone to a F4 in the last 40 years... And we haven't.
You bring up the last 6 tournaments, where we've performed roughly to seed. Maybe a tiny bit below seed, but certainly not overperformed our seed.
Here's a list of some of the teams that have made a F4 in those 6 tournaments:
- #7 seed MSU (2015)
- #10 seed Syracuse (2016)
- #7 seed USCe (2017)
- #11 seed Loyola-Chicago (2018)
- #5 seed Auburn (2019)
In 40 years Purdue has squandered high seeds and never had that great low-seed run, to make the F4.
Can't we just have nice things ONE year?
I went back to the beginning of the Keady era and, per wiki assuming I grabbed it right, since then Purdue has had:
- 3 #1 seeds
- 3 #2 seeds
- 5 #3 seeds
- 3 #4 seeds
- 3 #5 seeds
- 5 #6 seeds
- 1 #7 seed
- 1 #8 seed
- 4 #9 seeds
- 2 #10 seeds
Based on past history by those seeds, that "should" have produced:
- 21.32 R32's, actual 22
- 11.78 S16's, actual 10
- 6.06 E8's, actual 3
- 3 F4's, actual 0
- 1.58 NC games, actual 0
- 0.78 NC's, actual 0
My counts could be off slightly, I'm trying to read from a long text table.
I think this puts it in perspective and we are ultimately only talking about a few bounces here and there:
- Purdue has very slightly overperformed in R64 games even with this year's loss.
- Purdue is only down 1.78 S16 appearances from what we would expect, not a big difference.
- Purdue has less than half the number of E8's that we would expect but it is 3 vs ~6 so only a deficit of ~3.
- Purdue is short three F4's. A few bounces here or there . . .
- Purdue is short 1.58 NC Games, a few bounces . . .
- Purdue is short <1 NC.
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Wrong damn OSU is playing right now.
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A decided lack of barn burning in this game
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Ongoing rant - Loyola missed a wide open 3. Announcer says that's not a great shot even though it was open and the shooter is good at 3s. What?
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Ongoing rant - Loyola missed a wide open 3. Announcer says that's not a great shot even though it was open and the shooter is good at 3s. What?
Some people just don't like the idea of long jumpers. I think we here had a discussion at some point about not taking a 3 when you're trying to hold a lead.
And it gets wonky. Like, if they're giving up open shots there, they're probably not giving up open shots elsewhere.
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Some people just don't like the idea of long jumpers. I think we here had a discussion at some point about not taking a 3 when you're trying to hold a lead.
And it gets wonky. Like, if they're giving up open shots there, they're probably not giving up open shots elsewhere.
The guy's rationale was Loyola's offense is about moving the ball, not taking shots early in the possession. This is true, but it isn't a legitimate reason to bypass a wide open three from a good shooter. You move the ball on offense to generate good shots, not because you get extra points for passing the ball.
In any event, there can be good reasons it was a bad shot. Basketball advanced stats are ridiculous these days - the guy might be a good shooter from a spot up look, but a bad one off the dribble. Or he may be bad at threes from that spot on the floor, though good at other spots. I feel announcers should be (1) entertaining and/or (2) help you understand the game you are watching. Too often it is just a guy talking while the game is going on, sometimes actively telling you things that make no sense.
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The guy's rationale was Loyola's offense is about moving the ball, not taking shots early in the possession. This is true, but it isn't a legitimate reason to bypass a wide open three from a good shooter. You move the ball on offense to generate good shots, not because you get extra points for passing the ball.
In any event, there can be good reasons it was a bad shot. Basketball advanced stats are ridiculous these days - the guy might be a good shooter from a spot up look, but a bad one off the dribble. Or he may be bad at threes from that spot on the floor, though good at other spots. I feel announcers should be (1) entertaining and/or (2) help you understand the game you are watching. Too often it is just a guy talking while the game is going on, sometimes actively telling you things that make no sense.
As a Wisconsin fan who has watch uncountable numbers of middling shots thrown up after ball movement and watched fans BEG for shots to go up early when they're open, this makes me chuckle.
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Ongoing rant - Loyola missed a wide open 3. Announcer says that's not a great shot even though it was open and the shooter is good at 3s. What?
I think announcers these days are most glorified 'yes' men. Had he made the three, he would have been saying it's a great shot.
Same with fouls, even if it's a bad call they will look for any reason to say yes the ref is right.
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Definitely some barn burning in Creighton Gonzaga
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I feel like the Zags are playing with their food a bit. Like they're not smashing Creighton, but winning comfortably, and Creighton isn't doing much to cause that.
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IU hiring Mike Woodson, career NBA guy and Bob Knight guy.
He was fired after being just OK with the Hawks, had one very good season with the Knicks after being a mid-season promotion, then got fired.
I don't get it.
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IU hiring Mike Woodson, career NBA guy and Bob Knight guy.
He was fired after being just OK with the Hawks, had one very good season with the Knicks after being a mid-season promotion, then got fired.
I don't get it.
Also hiring Thad Matta as some sort of basketball AD or something. Pretty clearly influenced by Michigan and Juwan Howard.
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Not exactly scintillating basketball, but Michigan with an 11 point lead at the half. FSU looks totally lost on offense. Teams combined to go 2-14 from 3. Hopefully fewer bricks in the second half.
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After two blowouts, we got a good little game here. Will UCLA foul?
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WOW
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UCLA with a heck of an overtime. To face Michigan for a final four spot. Buckeyes have beat both teams so I consider them an honorary final four team.
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After two blowouts, we got a good little game here. Will UCLA foul?
UCLA’s defense in that buzzer beater was as bad as it gets. You have to get within 5 feet of an opposing player to have a chance to foul. That was as easy a look as you can get in that situation. Didn’t cost them though.
After a few rough years in both football and basketball the Pac 12 needed a tournament like this.
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At least we got one good game today
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The E8 will be:
- #1's, three B1G, WCC, B12
- #2, AAC
- #3, SEC
- #6, P12
- #11, P12
- #12, P12
The three lowest seeds are all from the Pac. Good for them.
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The E8 will be:
- #1's, three B1G, WCC, B12
- #2, AAC
- #3, SEC
- #6, P12
- #11, P12
- #12, P12
The three lowest seeds are all from the Pac. Good for them.
How does this year's E8 compare to the average since expansion?
- 3 #2's, average is 2.77
- 1 #2, average is 1.83
- 1 #3, average us 1.03
- 0 #4's, average is 0.6
- 0 #5's, average is 0.26
- 1 #6's, average is 0.4
- 0 #7's, average is 0.29
- 0 #8's, average is 0.23
- 0 #9's, average is 0.11
- 0 #10's, average is 0.23
- 1 #11's, average is 0.23
- 1 #12's, average is 0.03
No #13's or below have ever made the E8.
There are a few more upsets than normal but the bigger difference is that the upsets have been by lower seeds than normal. #11 UCLA is the ninth #11 to ever make the E8 and #12 Oregon State is only the second #12 or below to ever make the E8.
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(https://www.printyourbrackets.com/images/ncaa-elite-8-bracket.png)
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West Coast (flashes hand signals)!
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Pac 10 and SWC showed up!
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SWC!SWC!SWC!
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I was in middle school for the first year of the Big XII. I remember SWC football, but I have zero recollection of SWC basketball. I remember those great Arkansas teams, but that was after they jumped ship
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I was in middle school for the first year of the Big XII. I remember SWC football, but I have zero recollection of SWC basketball. I remember those great Arkansas teams, but that was after they jumped ship
The pigs had some very good teams in the SWC as well. But overall the SWC wasn't much of a roundball conference, for men at least. Texas made some fun tourney runs around 89/90 with Tom Penders as the coach. Lots of offense, zero defense.
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Nolan Richardson and 40 minutes of hell
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Nolan Richardson and 40 minutes of hell
I remember it all too well. I really hated that guy.
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For as many upsets as we saw earlier in this tournament, the first two F4 spots were claimed by a #1 seed from the B12 and a #2 seed from the AAC.
Tonight we have #1 seeds from the B1G and WCC playing a #11 and a #6 from the Pac.
Since expansion the average F4 has consisted of roughly 2.5 #1 and #2 seeds and 1.5 #3 seeds and below. If both #1 seeds win tonight we'll have the highest seeded F4 since all four #1 seeds made it which has only happened once (2008).
#11 UCLA would be only the fifth #11 to ever make the F4 and no team seeded below #11 has ever done so.
#6 USC would be only the fourth #6 to ever make the F4.
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As an Ohio State guy it is difficult for me to root for Michigan but man does it look bad for the B1G if two #1's and two #2's result in zero F4 slots.
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The F4 is set and here is how it compares to all of the prior F4's since expansion:
- 2 #1's, average was 1.66
- 1 #2, average was 0.8
- 0 #3's, average was 0.49
- 0 #4's, average was 0.37
- 0 #5's, average was 0.2
- 0 #6's, average was 0.09
- 0 #7's, average was 0.09
- 0 #8's, average was 0.14
- 0 #9's, average was 0.03
- 0 #10's, average was 0.03
- 1 #11's, average was 0.11
- 0 #12's and below, no #12 or below has ever made the F4.
So we have more #1's and more #2's than average. That may seem surprising after we had more upsets than usual in the first two rounds but it actually makes sense. The early round upsets only took out one #1 (Illinois) and two #2's (tOSU and Iowa). What those early round upsets did for the other top seeds was to clear an easier path for them:
- #1 Gonzaga's path was 16-8-5-6. #2 Iowa and #3 Kansas lost in the second round while #4 UVA lost in the first round.
- #1 Baylor's path was 16-9-5-3. #2 tOSU and #4 PU both lost in the first round.
- #2 Houston's path was 15-10-11-12. #1 Illinois, #3 WVU, and #4 OkSU all lost in the second round. Thus, Houston's path was essentially this: https://youtu.be/j3CANELyPo0
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What this group should accomplish:
- 6.15 teams in the R32
- 3.91 teams in the S16
- 2.62 teams in the E8
- 1.36 teams in the F4
- 0.69 teams in the NC
- 0.39 National Champions
The Big Ten's big flop is now complete. We were well behind all throughout the tournament and now our four of the top eight seeds have all been eliminated. Ugly.
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Don't you just love the upsets while crowning a champ?!? :96:
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won't matter if the Zags win it
also won't matter if Baylor wins
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Well Gonzaga is the #1 overall seed, so if Baylor were to win, that would represent an upset, and therefore wouldn't be acceptable to some.
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to some
first of all this is just crowning a tournament champ, not a season champ
to me, a #1 vs #2 game to decide a champ is acceptable
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Yeah, as long as we wind up with Gonzaga-Baylor, the rest was just noise anyway
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Definitely shows the difference in football and basketball. Gonzaga and Houston wouldn't even be allowed in the college football playoffs.
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That's about as false as an equivalent can get. Sheeesh.
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That's about as false as an equivalent can get. Sheeesh.
Nope. Looking at who has been invited to the playoffs, it is 100 percent accurate
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Nope. Looking at who has been invited to the playoffs, it is 100 percent accurate
But you are implying that it is because they are excluded for an arbitrary and illegitimate reason. They aren't.
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An undefeated Houston may not be invited in football
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Yikes, I'm thinking that CBS is going to hate this F4.
Problem #1 is that none of these teams have particularly large fan bases. That will reduce viewers/ratings.
Problem #2 is that there is very limited geographic diversity. We have two teams from Texas and two West coast teams. That will reduce viewers/ratings.
Problem #3 is that there isn't even the geographic diversity that we could theoretically in the semi-finals. Instead of two Tx vs west coast games we have a Tx game and a west coast game. That will reduce viewers/ratings.
My guess is that this year's ratings will be dismal.
Past ratings/viewers:
https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/ncaa-final-four-ratings-history-most-watched-games-cbs-tbs-nbc/
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poor poor pitiful CBS
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But you are implying that it is because they are excluded for an arbitrary and illegitimate reason. They aren't.
I'm not implying anything. I'm pointing out clear differences between the two systems. Whether you like one or the other is up to you.
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An undefeated Houston may not be invited in football
While Gonzaga Football has been undefeated since 1941, it is due in large part to the fact that that's the last time that they fielded a team.
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An undefeated Houston may not be invited in football
An undefeated Houston football faced a tougher road than Houston basketball did in this tourney
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Don't you just love the upsets while crowning a champ?!? :96:
I HATES THEM!
Eff Miami-Nebraska in ‘83. Eff OSU-UF in 2006. Eff ASU-OSU in ‘96. Bama deserved that title in 2014!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Nope. Looking at who has been invited to the playoffs, it is 100 percent accurate
You're omitting so much here.
Gonzaga was a mid-major about 15 years ago. Let's correlate them with Boise State in football. Great records, ranked, but not respected come the postseason.
You're completely ignoring that Gonzaga, through the freedom that is OOC basketball scheduling, annually played top teams and winning enough of the time that they earned respect come postseason. It'd be as if Boise State actually kept having 12-1 seasons for a decade while scheduling USC, Michigan, and Texas A&M OOC.
If you're not going to acknowledge that, I'll just stop.
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If UCLA wins its semifinal, how legit a champion is Houston (if it wins out)? Literally beat a 1-seed and all the rest double-digit seeds.
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Comparing to football, mulltiplying by 4, that'd be akin to say, Clemson, beating Alabama in the playoff, but not having beaten anyone else in the top 25 OR others receiving votes. Wait, didn't Clemson do that one year? :57:
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An undefeated Houston football faced a tougher road than Houston basketball did in this tourney
If UCLA wins its semifinal, how legit a champion is Houston (if it wins out)? Literally beat a 1-seed and all the rest double-digit seeds.
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Comparing to football, mulltiplying by 4, that'd be akin to say, Clemson, beating Alabama in the playoff, but not having beaten anyone else in the top 25 OR others receiving votes. Wait, didn't Clemson do that one year? :57:
Houston's path in this tournament has been ridiculously easy this year, similar to Michigan's path to the CG a few years ago.
That said, it happens. This is the format, everyone knows that. Some #2 seeds face 15-7-3-1-1-1. Houston's path in @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) hypothetical would be 15-10-11-12-1-11. We accept it because each of those lower seeds got there, they must have been pretty good. UCLA didn't just appear in the F4 by decree. They earned that spot.
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So UCLA earned the NC if they win it all?
Finished 4th in their conference.
Had a losing record on the road.
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The same people who yell and scream that the playoff teams must win their conference and/or division also defend the above. It's gross.
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UCLA will have earned a tourney championship
nothing more
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You're omitting so much here.
Gonzaga was a mid-major about 15 years ago. Let's correlate them with Boise State in football. Great records, ranked, but not respected come the postseason.
You're completely ignoring that Gonzaga, through the freedom that is OOC basketball scheduling, annually played top teams and winning enough of the time that they earned respect come postseason. It'd be as if Boise State actually kept having 12-1 seasons for a decade while scheduling USC, Michigan, and Texas A&M OOC.
If you're not going to acknowledge that, I'll just stop.
Well I didn't write a treatise on the subject. But we all know the system - in basketball, every single team has a path to play for a national championship. This is clearly not the case in football, where you know before the season begins that roughly two thirds of the teams can't get into the playoffs even if they win all their games. I don't know why that needs context or is even controversial.
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Thou shall win six (possibly seven) consecutive games. That's the pact if you want to compete for the title.
1s needn't apologize for often 'ducking' other 1s.
Why not nitpick the titles from small field eras or one bid eras, when the brackets were more regional. Or, when teams that felt snubbed out of a high seed and went to the NIT instead.
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So UCLA earned the NC if they win it all?
Finished 4th in their conference.
Had a losing record on the road.
.
The same people who yell and scream that the playoff teams must win their conference and/or division also defend the above. It's gross.
Why is it gross? They got told if you went out and beat a bunch of good teams when it counted, they will win the thing that they give you when you get the good teams when it counts.
People bring up the winning the conference thing because there is a scarcity of spots. No one has some great moral quandary about teams who are in second, third or even fourth place getting into a large field. And honestly, the only thing that really tweaked people was when a third-place team got in, and zero other first place teams got in.
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Why is it gross? They got told if you went out and beat a bunch of good teams when it counted, they will win the thing that they give you when you get the good teams when it counts.
People bring up the winning the conference thing because there is a scarcity of spots. No one has some great moral quandary about teams who are in second, third or even fourth place getting into a large field. And honestly, the only thing that really tweaked people was when a third-place team got in, and zero other first place teams got in.
Don't forget the third place team got in ahead of the second place team that beat them. Where the basketball tourney has a set criteria that resolves all things by playing actual games, the football system...doesn't. There is no criteria beyond people declaring the four "best" teams.
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Why is it gross? They got told if you went out and beat a bunch of good teams when it counted, they will win the thing that they give you when you get the good teams when it counts.
This is why it is gross.
The selectivity of when to really try to win. When to really play hard or play at your peak. This is how you get Super Bowl champs who go 9-7. This is why the NBA has to threaten teams who sit their best players whenever. It's specifically designed to extract meaning from regular season games. What sense does that make??
meaningful season > meaningful playoff
(even if by sheer volume alone)
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I'm hoping for a UCLA championship.
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This is why it is gross.
The selectivity of when to really try to win. When to really play hard or play at your peak. This is how you get Super Bowl champs who go 9-7. This is why the NBA has to threaten teams who sit their best players whenever. It's specifically designed to extract meaning from regular season games. What sense does that make??
meaningful season > meaningful playoff
(even if by sheer volume alone)
This is how I view it. Every playoff expansion necessarily dilutes the importance of regular season games.
In basketball we have a system in which the playoff is very large so individual regular season games are nearly meaningless. They matter in the aggregate, of course, but if you look at one game in isolation it is nearly meaningless.
In football pre-BCS we had no playoff so individual regular season games were hugely important. One bad day at the wrong time prevented numerous great teams from winning the big prize.
Then we went to the two-team playoff that was the BCS. Individual games still mattered a lot, but somewhat less because there was a much better chance of getting a second chance.
Now we have a four-team playoff so some games, for some teams are basically meaningless. Still, individual games are very important, note that Ohio State has missed the CFP because of a single loss in both 2015 (MSU) and 2018 (PU).
When we expand to an eight-team playoff it will further dilute the importance of individual regular season games. That is unavoidable.
All of that said, I do not think that there is necessarily anything wrong with favoring very different systems for very different sports. No matter how much you love the 64/68 team CBB playoff, it simply isn't possible in CFB where you can only play once a week and the game is hell on players physically. It would be crazy to ask CFB players to play up to six or seven more games in a massively expanded playoff.
Personally, I like having a meaningful regular season in CFB and a huge tournament in CBB.
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The issue with football is that assigning the title "champion" was always, and is still, a fairly arbitrary process. A beauty pageant.
OAM wants to ensure that the best team is the champion. But pre-BCS, was that always the case? How many times did an undefeated team from a weak major conference be awarded the MNC while a 1-loss team, though superior and would probably win on a neutral field, was passed over?
Yes, it means that every game matters in the regular season... But it doesn't mean the best team will be champion. Because pollsters as a group tend to group teams first by number of losses, and then try to determine relative ranking within that group. Then they have other arbitrary conventions... We all know that losing a game in September hurt your chances far less than losing a game in November, as it related to the poll-based MNC or BCS selection. Why does that make sense?
Now we're at 4 teams, but it's still a beauty pageant. And yes, every game matters--unless you're a helmet team in the SEC, in which case you get one mulligan.
Does every game matter? Well it depends... On whether the committee decides whether it matters or not. Based on no objective or known criteria, rather based on their whim which seems to change year-to-year.
The only reason we have the BCS or the CFP is because fans want an objective champion--and they're not getting it. It's still a damn beauty pageant.
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The other part is what constitutes a "meaningful" regular season? If you had a playoff of all conference champions, conference games would be pretty danged meaningful, whereas now only conference games from certain conferences are meaningful.
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The other part is what constitutes a "meaningful" regular season? If you had a playoff of all conference champions, conference games would be pretty danged meaningful, whereas now only conference games from certain conferences are meaningful.
That's why I say 5+1+2... 5 P5 conference champions, tallest midget, and 2 at-large.
This means that no matter what, winning your conference is important. That means every conference game is important, because losing a tiebreaker to another team in your division means you're not going to your CCG, you can't win your conference. It also gives an incentive to schedule tough OOC, because an OOC loss doesn't end your chances of getting into the playoff, as long as you recover and win your conference.
But you don't want to exclude conference non-champs , because then you'll have NO incentive whatsoever to schedule tough OOC. Those would just be purely paycheck games, whereas today they're resume games too. So... You have 2 at-large spots for the best P5 non-champs. That way if Alabama needs a mulligan because they lost to Miss St and didn't make the CCG, but they smoked a great team or two in the OOC, they might build the resume to earn that at-large bid.
Granted, one of these years you'll get a 3-loss national champion. So be it. Is that *really* that bad?
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That's why I say 5+1+2... 5 P5 conference champions, tallest midget, and 2 at-large.
This means that no matter what, winning your conference is important. That means every conference game is important, because losing a tiebreaker to another team in your division means you're not going to your CCG, you can't win your conference. It also gives an incentive to schedule tough OOC, because an OOC loss doesn't end your chances of getting into the playoff, as long as you recover and win your conference.
But you don't want to exclude conference non-champs , because then you'll have NO incentive whatsoever to schedule tough OOC. Those would just be purely paycheck games, whereas today they're resume games too. So... You have 2 at-large spots for the best P5 non-champs. That way if Alabama needs a mulligan because they lost to Miss St and didn't make the CCG, but they smoked a great team or two in the OOC, they might build the resume to earn that at-large bid.
Granted, one of these years you'll get a 3-loss national champion. So be it. Is that *really* that bad?
Meaning is always eye of the beholder. I’ve seen a lot of Wisconsin-Minnesota games that are “meaningless” in the pursuit of a title.
Seems like most games are in that bucket. Yet 90 percent of teams don’t give up like I’m told SEC teams do in bigger bowls after losses. Weird.
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The other part is what constitutes a "meaningful" regular season? If you had a playoff of all conference champions, conference games would be pretty danged meaningful, whereas now only conference games from certain conferences are meaningful.
In my earlier post I tried to address this question by diverting into a discussion of "meaningful" as relates to individual games or the season as a whole. Here is what I said:
"In basketball we have a system in which the playoff is very large so individual regular season games are nearly meaningless. They matter in the aggregate, of course, but if you look at one game in isolation it is nearly meaningless.
In football pre-BCS we had no playoff so individual regular season games were hugely important. One bad day at the wrong time prevented numerous great teams from winning the big prize."
You just said that if all conference champions got bids, conference games would be "pretty danged meaningful" but I have a multitude of issues with that:
First, all OOC games or about 25-33% of regular season games would become not just less meaningful, but almost completely meaningless because they would only matter for seeding.
Second, not all conference games would be "pretty danged meaningful", only some would. Ohio State's loss in a non-divisional game to Purdue a few years ago cost the Buckeyes a CFP spot. That is iron clad proof that the tOSU/PU game was VERY meaningful. Note, however, that since it was a non-divisonal game, the loss would have been nearly meaningless if conference Champions got auto bids. In spite of that loss, tOSU still controlled their own CG destiny, got to the CG, and won the league.
Similarly, in the B12 it is nearly impossible for any single loss to exclude a team from the CG. Thus, with auto bids each individual B12 game would be effectively meaningless.
Even within divisions, an individual loss only knocks a contender out of the CG if the team that they lose to has 0 or 1 losses. Otherwise it doesn't matter.
Third, giving an auto bid to every tallest midget would be flat out ridiculous. I'm sorry but winning the Sun Belt, MAC, or even AAC is not even remotely comparable to winning the SEC, B1G, or B12.
That's why I say 5+1+2... 5 P5 conference champions, tallest midget, and 2 at-large.
This is where I am. I'm not actually in favor of playoff expansion, I just consider it inevitable and I think this is the best plausible solution.
It doesn't completely eliminate the value of OOC games like @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) 's proposal but it does massively expand the number of teams "in the race" deep into the season because any team with a mathematical shot at their CG has at least a theoretical shot at an NC.
The only thing I'll add to @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) 's proposal is that if it were up to me:
- The first round would be hosted by the top four league champions in mid or late December, and
- After the first round the match-ups would be determined by seed irrespective of titles.
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This means that no matter what, winning your conference is important. That means every conference game is important, because losing a tiebreaker to another team in your division means you're not going to your CCG, you can't win your conference. It also gives an incentive to schedule tough OOC, because an OOC loss doesn't end your chances of getting into the playoff, as long as you recover and win your conference.
I agree with your entire post except the bolded section because:
Second, not all conference games would be "pretty danged meaningful", only some would. Ohio State's loss in a non-divisional game to Purdue a few years ago cost the Buckeyes a CFP spot. That is iron clad proof that the tOSU/PU game was VERY meaningful. Note, however, that since it was a non-divisonal game, the loss would have been nearly meaningless if conference Champions got auto bids. In spite of that loss, tOSU still controlled their own CG destiny, got to the CG, and won the league.
Similarly, in the B12 it is nearly impossible for any single loss to exclude a team from the CG. Thus, with auto bids each individual B12 game would be effectively meaningless.
Even within divisions, an individual loss only knocks a contender out of the CG if the team that they lose to has 0 or 1 losses. Otherwise it doesn't matter.
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The only thing I'll add to @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) 's proposal is that if it were up to me:
- The first round would be hosted by the top four league champions in mid or late December, and
- After the first round the match-ups would be determined by seed irrespective of titles.
Illustration of how this would work in a crazy season:
Suppose that Bama and Clemson are the consensus top two all year but Bama loses a fluky game to Auburn (like the kick-6) and misses the SECCG while Clemson goes to the ACCCG but loses a similarly fluky game to a three-loss FSU.
Further suppose that Bama beat FSU in an early OOC game and that Auburn lost an OOC game to Clemson and a conference game, then they lose the SECCG to a three-loss UF.
Finally suppose that 12-1 tOSU wins the B1G (but had a blowout loss to a bad B1G-W team) 11-2 OU wins the B12, 11-2 Oregon wins the P12, and that a 12-1 Cincinnati team that got blown out by tOSU is the highest ranked G5 Champ.
Thus, the eight playoff teams (and seeds) would be:
- 11-1 Bama, at-large
- 12-1 Clemson, at-large
- 12-1 tOSU, B1G Champ
- 11-2 Oklahoma, B12 Champ
- 11-2 Oregon, P12 Champ
- 10-3 Florida, SEC Champ
- 10-3 FSU, ACC Champ
- 12-1 Cincinnati, tallest midget
Bama and Clemson can't host in the first round since they are non-champions so the first round games would be:
- #8 Cincinnati at #3 tOSU (highest seeded champ hosting lowest seeded team)
- #7 FSU at #4 Oklahoma (2nd highest seeded champ hosting 2nd lowest seeded team)
- #2 Clemson at #5 Oregon (3rd highest seeded champ hosting 3rd lowest seeded available opponent)
- #1 Bama at #6 Florida (4th highest seeded champ hosting the only remaining team)
Suppose the even numbered teams all won, second round games would be:
- #2 Clemson vs #8 Cincinnati
- #4 Oklahoma vs #6 Florida
Alternatively , if the odd numbered teams won, second round games would be:
- #1 Bama vs #7 FSU
- #3 tOSU vs #5 Oregon
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You're omitting so much here.
Gonzaga was a mid-major about 15 years ago. Let's correlate them with Boise State in football. Great records, ranked, but not respected come the postseason.
You're completely ignoring that Gonzaga, through the freedom that is OOC basketball scheduling, annually played top teams and winning enough of the time that they earned respect come postseason. It'd be as if Boise State actually kept having 12-1 seasons for a decade while scheduling USC, Michigan, and Texas A&M OOC.
If you're not going to acknowledge that, I'll just stop.
So here's the thing, you're taking your rubric, a hero's journey of meritocracy, and applying it to Gonzaga. But here's the think, it doesn't really fit.
The first year they broke through, back in 1999, they took on Nos. 8, 15, 22, 24, plus a Memphis team that was a few years removed a coach that went to six tournaments in 11 years in some wasteland conferences (Washington State was in there, but also bad). Few's first team played Nos. 1, 9, 11, plus four other Pac-12 teams and a Big 12 team.
15 years ago was what? 2006? By then, they'd had three regular seasons that ended in the Top-10 and 1-2 that started there.
That's not as if they scheduled impossibly. They scheduled reasonably for their station, given the way the sport operates. In the end, it actually got harder to schedule. Fewer wanted to pay a team to kick their ass. Gonzaga couldn't pay most good teams to leave a valuable home game for a potential loss. They did home and homes with Memphis, just to stay afloat.
Now, Gonzaga always had the advantage that CBB offers, access. Access to a postseason where no one can say the other team isn’t trying. If this was college football, they’d be in the NIT every year and people would say “If you win another one in a row, we might just let you in.” Boise will never have that. They’ll just have a run of either second-tier bowls or first-tier ones where people explain the other team just didn’t care.
And in truth, the main way Gonzaga got over the doubt was they just actually broke through and played for a title. The just went out and did their thing. Folks moved the goal posts, and many probably still are. Now, Boise can do it for 1,000 years, and they’re never getting into a four-team playoff. That’s how it is. They’ll complain the system is against them (it is) and they’ll complain they deserve it at some point (pretty unlikely).
But to bring it back, there was no time Gonzaga took on the equivalent of USC, A&M and Michigan. They took on the equivalent of Florida State and BYU if one of those teams had its stuff together. And Boise took on just those two last full season, granted, neither had its stuff together. This idea Gonzaga sought the respect of the skeptics just ain’t the case. They tried to build toward and inclusive postseason and fielded good teams until things came together in that random tournament.
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In football pre-BCS we had no playoff so individual regular season games were hugely important. One bad day at the wrong time prevented numerous great teams from winning the big prize.
Then we went to the two-team playoff that was the BCS. Individual games still mattered a lot, but somewhat less because there was a much better chance of getting a second chance.
....
Personally, I like having a meaningful regular season in CFB and a huge tournament in CBB.
So, this got me thinking, could a system like the old one survive to this day?
Like, we didn't really even have sports websites before the BCS. Our knowledge base about everything was so much more limited. I'm thinking a little biblically, but if we had the perspective we have now, the advanced numbers, the ability to see so much ball, would we really just kind of settle with agreeing a team line 2012 Notre Dame was the best (had it caught a better bowl matchup), or been fine when 2002 Miami is easily awarded a title over undefeated OSU.
I mean, it made every season a grind to finish undefeated. That has plusses and minuses (hi BYU). It also meant poll logic (team lost. must move down, team won, can move up, but needs space to open most often, etc) was king. And I think most of us don't totally like poll logic and if it really mattered anymore, me might be mad.
(There's also the tradeoff of "meaning." A team like 2002 USC was out five games in. If the rest doesn't count, someone who had title dreams might well treat the rest of the season like Dan Mullen treated the bowl. On the flip side, as much as the end of OSU's regular season in basketball didn't "mean" much, people still seemed to have feelings on it. Strong ones.)
Anyway, this isn't to argue one side or another. I like elements of both. Just think about some of the quirks from any system.
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I HATES THEM!
Eff Miami-Nebraska in ‘83. Eff OSU-UF in 2006. Eff ASU-OSU in ‘96. Bama deserved that title in 2014!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Um,no Eff You :character0029: 😎
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You're omitting so much here.
Gonzaga was a mid-major about 15 years ago. Let's correlate them with Boise State in football.
You're the one omitting so much,Gonzaga began making the tournament back in the 1990's.I know - they were my go to underdog when I was wagering.So I looked them up and this got spit out - Gonzaga's NCAA Tournament streak began in 1999 with Elite Eight appearance. This year's NCAA Tournament appearance marks 22 straight for the Zags. We can only hope GU will make history by taking home a national championship title.The Bulldogs entered the tournament in 2021 as the 20th undefeated team ever.
.It would have been the 23rd straight but last yrs was obviously canceled.You make the Elite 8,you've gained respect.You make the tournament 22 straight,you've continued to earn it.UNLV,Georgetown,Villanova,Louisville,Marquette all say hello
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Um,no Eff You :character0029: 😎
Listen man, I'm just out her defending the integrity of the regular season. Someone has to.
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That particular season worked out fine ;D .The Bowls were actually more interesting/entertaining.The season can't get here soon enough or last longer
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The issue with football is that assigning the title "champion" was always, and is still, a fairly arbitrary process. A beauty pageant.
OAM wants to ensure that the best team is the champion. But pre-BCS, was that always the case? How many times did an undefeated team from a weak major conference be awarded the MNC while a 1-loss team, though superior and would probably win on a neutral field, was passed over?
Yes, it means that every game matters in the regular season... But it doesn't mean the best team will be champion. Because pollsters as a group tend to group teams first by number of losses, and then try to determine relative ranking within that group.
Well.....I think that I'm technically advocating for ensuring a team we know isn't the best doesn't win the NC. Yes, I want the team with the best combination of best-playing/best resume to be crowed champion. And no, that's not always going to happen - it didn't before and it doesn't now.
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But what I've repeatedly warned against in this topic is allowing in teams we KNOW aren't that team with the best combination of gameplay and resume. Advocates for an expanded playoff want a larger group of teams to "have a chance," but their chance was the regular season. They don't need a 2nd chance, they've been given 12 (in a normal year).
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To understand it better, let's say the top teams are guilty of possibly being "the best" team (yes, that abstraction we may never well know). I simply don't want any "innocent" teams to possibly be found guilty of being "the best" (ie- champion), just as we don't want anyone innocent being executed by the state in real life.
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Now I say all of this WHILE insulting the pollsters, who nearly always rank teams by number of losses and helmet recognition. Some have gotten better in the past decade, but it's still an idiotic herd of sheep for the most part. A committee is better than 80 head coaches that don't watch other teams play and hand the task off to an intern. I don't know why it's so hard to get a group of people that can put a loss into context in degrees of good/bad rather than treating it like a bullet wound that kills you.
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But again, to edit the bold above, I want to play the odds and make the potential NC come from an exclusive, small group that is most very likely the best team. So no, for me, including the Sun Belt champ isn't a worthwhile exercise. All of these 5 champs plus 3 at-large is just going to include teams you don't want in there now, like teams that didn't win their division. No, it's not fair for G5 programs and instead of throwing them the bone of an annual, public beatdown, the NCAA (or whoever) should simply stop the lie and give them their own NC or something.
Coastal Carolina, 2020 G5 National Champions is a lot better than Coastal Carolina is the 8 seed in a newfangled playoff and gets to face Alabama in the Sugar Bowl! The line is -43 points.
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Yet 90 percent of teams don’t give up like I’m told SEC teams do in bigger bowls after losses. Weird.
Shut up. It's not about conference affiliation, it's about losing all of your highest season goals at the end of the regular season. Don't be a douche.
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You're the one omitting so much,Gonzaga began making the tournament back in the 1990's.I know - they were my go to underdog when I was wagering.So I looked them up and this got spit out - Gonzaga's NCAA Tournament streak began in 1999 with Elite Eight appearance. This year's NCAA Tournament appearance marks 22 straight for the Zags. We can only hope GU will make history by taking home a national championship title.The Bulldogs entered the tournament in 2021 as the 20th undefeated team ever.
.It would have been the 23rd straight but last yrs was obviously canceled.You make the Elite 8,you've gained respect.You make the tournament 22 straight,you've continued to earn it.UNLV,Georgetown,Villanova,Louisville,Marquette all say hello
Uhh, okay.
My estimate pulled from the top of my head was 7 years off.
My bad.
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In a system I advocate for, you can whip up any craziness you want, but it won't change anything. Conference championships SHOULD be a big deal and amazing and great and wonderful.
But the moment we had the SEC split into divisions, that started going out the window. Once conferences got so bloated that you didn't come close to playing everyone else, it went nearly totally out the window.
Now what matters? What do people remember? For the big-boy programs, it's did you make the playoff? Alabama happens to win the SEC a lot, but they'll take that playoff spot over another SEC crown every day of the week. So would I. So should you.
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I'm a college football fanatic, and I couldn't tell you if MSU won the B1G any of those years they were so good with Dantonio. I think they must have when they made the playoff, but I wouldn't be money on it. I don't know which years Wisconsin won the B1G, if OSU was above them and made the playoff. Hell, they may not have ever happened!
And think about the PAC-12. I know Oregon won it in when they spanked FSU....in the playoff. But how many of us could list the last 5 PAC-12 champs? I couldn't, because they don't make the playoff (UW did that one year, I know).
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Conference champs was a big deal until it wasn't.
Yes, much of the time, the best team in the country doesn't win their conference.
To pretend otherwise is sticking your head in the sand.
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I'm a college football fanatic, and I couldn't tell you if MSU won the B1G any of those years they were so good with Dantonio. I think they must have when they made the playoff, but I wouldn't be money on it. I don't know which years Wisconsin won the B1G, if OSU was above them and made the playoff. Hell, they may not have ever happened!
And think about the PAC-12. I know Oregon won it in when they spanked FSU....in the playoff. But how many of us could list the last 5 PAC-12 champs? I couldn't, because they don't make the playoff (UW did that one year, I know).
Okay... So let me see if I have this straight...
Your goal is to protect the sanctity of the regular season, the most meaningful regular season of any sport. You desperately want to make sure that nothing about the regular season--defined as every game mattering--is diluted.
And yet at the same time you--as a college football fanatic--can't be bothered to really remember anything about a team's regular season performance in any given year unless that team makes the playoff? And even then, you don't recall whether a team was the conference champion--only that they made the playoff, so they probably were?
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Yes, that's what having a playoff has done, in my experience.
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But what I've repeatedly warned against in this topic is allowing in teams we KNOW aren't that team with the best combination of gameplay and resume. Advocates for an expanded playoff want a larger group of teams to "have a chance," but their chance was the regular season. They don't need a 2nd chance, they've been given 12 (in a normal year).
Now I say all of this WHILE insulting the pollsters, who nearly always rank teams by number of losses and helmet recognition. Some have gotten better in the past decade, but it's still an idiotic herd of sheep for the most part. A committee is better than 80 head coaches that don't watch other teams play and hand the task off to an intern. I don't know why it's so hard to get a group of people that can put a loss into context in degrees of good/bad rather than treating it like a bullet wound that kills you.
Yet... I can count 2 times that the committee has put in teams that we know aren't the best.
- 2014 FSU - Everyone knew that FSU team was flawed, hence why they were 13-0 and seeded behind two 12-1 teams. They'd squeaked by a bunch of weak teams in a middling conference by the skin of their teeth. But there is NO way they'd leave out a 13-0 team from a major conference, especially after what they'd done the year before, so FSU had to be put in even though their flaws were obvious.
- 2015 MSU - We all knew it based on their roster. They simply never had the talent level of a CFP contender. Like FSU, they squeaked by a bunch of teams, including an Iowa team in the CCG that got completely smoked in the Rose Bowl... They got in because they managed to beat OSU by 3 points in the regular season and have the H2H tiebreaker, even though OSU spent the year crushing everyone else on their list while MSU squeaked by.
Personally I could probably add 2018 and 2020 Notre Dame to that list, because they're a has-been. A paper tiger who trades on their name and their ancient history. But they get the benefit of the doubt, because they're Notre Dame, so they're in that elite group due to their helmet despite getting curb-stomped every time they step up to the big boy table. Nobody was going to keep an undefeated ND out in 2018, just like FSU in 2014, even if we knew they didn't belong there.
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Shut up. It's not about conference affiliation, it's about losing all of your highest season goals at the end of the regular season. Don't be a douche.
I don’t think I will shut up. I feel like I’ve seen UW lose a lot of Big Ten title games, at least one with a playoff spot on the line.
The damndest thing, they seemed to bring it.
But setting that aside, what happens if your highest goals are done early on. What if you have high goals and two losses, how soon is the art of explaining away motivations going to grow and expand? Eventually we’d hear the Dan Mullen speech in early November. “It was title or bust for this team, so with no title, we’re playing to get ready for next year.”
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Yes, that's what having a playoff has done, in my experience.
Most of his best years, including the majority of his conference titles and lone title game loss came pre-playoff.
This playoff forgetfulness is a powerful thing.
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To me, the lack of certainty on how to get into the postseason is the biggest problem. Regular season games are important, sort of. Giving the committee leave to weigh recruiting rankings as important as winning games gives the whole enterprise a bit of an off flavor.
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Yet... I can count 2 times that the committee has put in teams that we know aren't the best.
- 2014 FSU - Everyone knew that FSU team was flawed, hence why they were 13-0 and seeded behind two 12-1 teams. They'd squeaked by a bunch of weak teams in a middling conference by the skin of their teeth. But there is NO way they'd leave out a 13-0 team from a major conference, especially after what they'd done the year before, so FSU had to be put in even though their flaws were obvious.
- 2015 MSU - We all knew it based on their roster. They simply never had the talent level of a CFP contender. Like FSU, they squeaked by a bunch of teams, including an Iowa team in the CCG that got completely smoked in the Rose Bowl... They got in because they managed to beat OSU by 3 points in the regular season and have the H2H tiebreaker, even though OSU spent the year crushing everyone else on their list while MSU squeaked by.
Personally I could probably add 2018 and 2020 Notre Dame to that list, because they're a has-been. A paper tiger who trades on their name and their ancient history. But they get the benefit of the doubt, because they're Notre Dame, so they're in that elite group due to their helmet despite getting curb-stomped every time they step up to the big boy table. Nobody was going to keep an undefeated ND out in 2018, just like FSU in 2014, even if we knew they didn't belong there.
Now all you have to do is propose replacements for these teams and support their inclusion over these that you've listed.
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Baylor with a first half bludgeoning of Houston
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When did Baylor get good at basketball? Hopefully their players treat women better than the football team did.
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When did Baylor get good at basketball? Hopefully their players treat women better than the football team did.
They went to Elite 8s in 2010 and 2012, and have been to two more Sweet 16s since/
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Baylor with a first half bludgeoning of Houston
I don't know where Gonzaga is in relation to Baylor, but damn Baylor is good.
The fact Wisconsin was in striking distance for much of the first half and parts of the second is in retrospect remarkable.
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I just hope UCLA doesn't ruin basketball nirvana
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Now all you have to do is propose replacements for these teams and support their inclusion over these that you've listed.
2014: Baylor or TCU.
2015: OSU.
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Ultimately Houston's easy path caught up with them. In their region:
- The #1, #3, and #4 seeds lost in the second round.
- The #5, #6, and #7 seeds lost in the first round.
They got to the final four by beating 15, 10, 11, 12 but then they ran into a #1 and got clobbered.
I don't mean that to knock them. I wish my #2 seed team had beaten their #15. Houston beat the teams they needed to beat to get to the F4, good for them.
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If Baylor wins it all, my wife will be in the money on her bracket--first time she's ever done a bracket challenge.
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Painter was recruiting Tyger Campbell pretty hard. But Painter seemed to have a reputation for not letting guards be guards.
I think post-Carsen and post-Ivey, he's shedding that reputation.
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Good first half. Gonzaga shooting mostly layups and open threes, but UCLA has Johnny Juzang.
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They went to Elite 8s in 2010 and 2012, and have been to two more Sweet 16s since/
that's what having a playoff has done, in his experience :D
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There isn't a Gonzaga in college football because the bowls aren't the tournament.
Boise State COULD'VE been a Gonzaga with tougher scheduling and a halfway-decent bowl slot. You're in a horse-shit conference if the champ goes to the Las Vegas bowl every year. That's on them.
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If Boise kept going 11-1 every year (they didn't) AND gradually went to better bowls over time (they didn't), and won most of those bowls (not all), they'd eventually be a playoff participant.
But Boise hasn't been as good as it needed to be and all of the other infrastructure hurdles that made it moot anyway.
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The point is, whenever Gonzaga started to matter, they were initially seeded poorly and after outperforming their seedings over many years, started to get seeded more highly. That's not some sort of big reveal.
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There isn't a Gonzaga in college football because the bowls aren't the tournament.
Boise State COULD'VE been a Gonzaga with tougher scheduling and a halfway-decent bowl slot. You're in a horse-shit conference if the champ goes to the Las Vegas bowl every year. That's on them.
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If Boise kept going 11-1 every year (they didn't) AND gradually went to better bowls over time (they didn't), and won most of those bowls (not all), they'd eventually be a playoff participant.
But Boise hasn't been as good as it needed to be and all of the other infrastructure hurdles that made it moot anyway.
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The point is, whenever Gonzaga started to matter, they were initially seeded poorly and after outperforming their seedings over many years, started to get seeded more highly. That's not some sort of big reveal.
This isn't rocket science. Gonzaga can market getting to the playoffs. In football, this simply isn't possible. Either you like this or you don't.
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Heck of a game between Gonzaga and UCLA
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Well holy hell
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Wow. Just wow.
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This isn't rocket science. Gonzaga can market getting to the playoffs. In football, this simply isn't possible. Either you like this or you don't.
Market to whom?
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Boise State COULD'VE been a Gonzaga with tougher scheduling and a halfway-decent bowl slot. You're in a horse-shit conference if the champ goes to the Las Vegas bowl every year. That's on them.
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If Boise kept going 11-1 every year (they didn't) AND gradually went to better bowls over time (they didn't), and won most of those bowls (not all), they'd eventually be a playoff participant.
But Boise hasn't been as good as it needed to be and all of the other infrastructure hurdles that made it moot anyway.
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The point is, whenever Gonzaga started to matter, they were initially seeded poorly and after outperforming their seedings over many years, started to get seeded more highly. That's not some sort of big reveal.
Yep. That speaks to it. If you're stuck in a conference you can't get out of, you'll never break in. And frankly, unless you're in an auto-bid conference, there's no chance. No matter how you schedule, how undefeated you go, etc.
Gonzaga made an Elite 8 their second tournament ever. Five years later, they were a 2 seed. Their best win was against 20-12 Maryland. The only lost two games, both to very excellent teams.
This story you are spinning isn't really true or comparable at all. I'm sorry.
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Market to whom?
Players
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that's what having a playoff has done, in his experience :D
As I understand @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) ,I agree with his point.
A playoff does tend to suck all of the oxygen out of the room so to speak. It draws so much attention that everything else becomes secondary and can easily get lost and forgotten.
Purdue basketball is a perfect example of this. As @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) pointed out upthread the Boilermakers are an elite program since ~1980 when judged based on regular season performance. In spite of that, basically nobody outside of Purdue fans sees them that way because to everyone else they are a program that hasn't been to the F4 in four decades.
The same playoff-centric focus is developing in football. You have a distinct top three of Bama then Clemson then tOSU. After that there is a drop-off then it is debatable between Oklahoma (lots of appearances, no CFP wins) and a group of teams with a single CFP win each. Finally you have the teams that have one or two appearances and are 0-1 or 0-2. After that, on a national level, who cares?
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Oddly enough, the national champion in football or in basketball is one of the least meaningful, to me, things about the sport.
The CFP is irrelevant to a Purdue fan. I care about it in the same way a Camry owner cares about the Nurburgring lap times of Ferraris and Lambos...
The tournament is great entertainment, but all my brackets are busted by the final weekend anyway. One if these years it'll be relevant because Purdue will be there, but my tournament interest typically wanes once Purdue is eliminated.
Then they put the national championship games for both sports on a Monday, a work day, and [for a West coaster] right in the middle of dinner prep / consumption time. Inconvenient for watching sports, to say the least...
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Importance is in the eye of the beholder.
If you are a Midwestern guy who cares more about the MAC than the SEC, then in your world the MAC CCG is more important than the SEC CCG.
If you are a Buckeye fan who would rather beat Michigan than win the Big Ten Title, then THE GAME is more important than the Big Ten CCG.
If you like the Rose Bowl better than the NCG, then the Rose Bowl game is more important than the NCG from your vantage point.
Conversely if you let the woke sports media lead you around by the short and curlies to the point where you quit watching CFB because your favorite team is never in the playoff hunt, then that's a "you" problem.
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Importance is in the eye of the beholder.
If you are a Midwestern guy who cares more about the MAC than the SEC, then in your world the MAC CCG is more important than the SEC CCG.
If you are a Buckeye fan who would rather beat Michigan than win the Big Ten Title, then THE GAME is more important than the Big Ten CCG.
If you like the Rose Bowl better than the NCG, then the Rose Bowl game is more important than the NCG from your vantage point.
Conversely if you let the woke sports media lead you around by the short and curlies to the point where you quit watching CFB because your favorite team is never in the playoff hunt, then that's a "you" problem.
Rational point.
Rational point
Rational point.
WTF? Being against an expanded playoff is now woke? Says who? Go bitch and moan and boycott over a guy kneeling during a song, snowflake.
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Then they put the national championship games for both sports on a Monday, a work day, and [for a West coaster] right in the middle of dinner prep / consumption time. Inconvenient for watching sports, to say the least...
Don’t worry, it’s worse timing out my way
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Gonzaga made an Elite 8 their second tournament ever. Five years later, they were a 2 seed. Their best win was against 20-12 Maryland. The only lost two games, both to very excellent teams.
This story you are spinning isn't really true or comparable at all. I'm sorry.
They didn't make the Elite 8 their 2nd tourney ever. And yes, 5 years later, they were a 2 seed. So my crime again was being off by a few years, yet what I said happened did happen.
Gonzaga got 2 rounds further than expected (by seeding) their first 2 trips, so their seeding improved. Except the first time they were a high seed (2) they pooped the bed in the 2nd round.
Theen they went about 8 years with 6+ losses, so that time frame becomes irrelevant to the discussion.
When they get back to very few losses, they were a 1 seed for the first time and abruptly lost in the 2nd round. Basically, if you look at it, you see how much of a crapshoot the seeding process seems to be, and that it's possible Gonzaga benefitted from their first 2 Cinderella runs way after the fact.
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The two sports' situations are too different to really compare. If I initiated that, then that's my bad.
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To me it boils down to college football is way too far on the side of actually letting the best team be national champion, and college basketball being way too far on the entertainment side.
Where you fall, is how important each is to you. And I think the end result of basketball is closer to producing a true champion than college football is to producing an entertaining race to get there. At least when it was two teams, there was entertainment in the fact that one fluky loss could end you, and a team that wasn't actually the best, could get enough breaks to get there. Going from 2 to 4 has eliminated those things more or less, and has sucked too much of the entertainment out of the national championship chase.
I think we could comfortably go to 8, and I still don't think you would see a bunch of fluky national champions. How many upsets have we seen in the CFP? Let alone a team pulling off three of those in a row. I think that would strike a good balance between entertainment and allowing the best team to win it. A 5-1-2 model. I kind of like the idea of working in some sort of group of five tournament to determine who gets that one bed, even if that is not plausible. Maybe you get rid of their conference championship games, and have the two best group of five teams play each other during championship weekend?
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They didn't make the Elite 8 their 2nd tourney ever. And yes, 5 years later, they were a 2 seed. So my crime again was being off by a few years, yet what I said happened did happen.
They didn't?
The first tournament the Bulldogs ever made was in 1995. The second was in 1999. I'm looking at a couple reference sites, they seem to say Gonzaga was one of the last 8 teams in the field?
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To me it boils down to college football is way too far on the side of actually letting the best team be national champion, and college basketball being way too far on the entertainment side.
Where you fall, is how important each is to you. And I think the end result of basketball is closer to producing a true champion than college football is to producing an entertaining race to get there. At least when it was two teams, there was entertainment in the fact that one fluky loss could end you, and a team that wasn't actually the best, could get enough breaks to get there. Going from 2 to 4 has eliminated those things more or less, and has sucked too much of the entertainment out of the national championship chase.
I think this split is interesting because it points to the fact that both systems, especially old CFB are a little prone to flukiness, with CFB's being understated. In a tournament setting, we have so many teams, we see the upsets, and seasons actually end, rather than sort of bleeding out slowly.
A year like 2014 is a great example. We saw how it played out in real life, a couple weird things came together to get OSU in, OSU was the hot team. If it's two teams, you have all the fluky stuff that kept FSU unbeaten and the fluky losses that would've kept TCU/OSU/Baylor out, as the SEC mulligan, the forgiveness of one fluky loss built in, would've put a Bama team that likely would've rocked FSU as it did ND two years prior. And if it was the really old system (pre-bowl coalition), lord knows who FSU would've played? They would've controlled the cards, with Bama in the wings?
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Conversely if you let the woke sports media lead you around by the short and curlies to the point where you quit watching CFB because your favorite team is never in the playoff hunt, then that's a "you" problem.
Setting aside the sort of circular question of the "woke" media, I think by and large, we as a people do often get caught up in so much of the hubbub. That's always been part of the sport, where rankings, a deeply silly exercise done by people we mostly have low opinions of, draw a great deal of attention and outrage.
Medina mentioned "A playoff does tend to suck all of the oxygen out of the room," and it strikes me as something that says more about the viewer than the actual process. I can watch CFB 3-5 nights a week most of the season. I can consume coverage from the one schlub who covers Miami (Ohio), from the blog that covers the Sun Belt, from the Columbus Dispatch, from a stats nerd I like, from my friends on a Big Ten Message Board.
I consume relatively little in the way of ESPN analysts unless the coverage is vetted as interesting by someone I trust (emphasis on interesting, not anger triggering, which is what a lot of people direct others to). I don't need to. I have all the CFB info I want and more, and I don't need to go to Herbie or Finebaum for it.
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To me it boils down to college football is way too far on the side of actually letting the best team be national champion, and college basketball being way too far on the entertainment side.
Where you fall, is how important each is to you. And I think the end result of basketball is closer to producing a true champion than college football is to producing an entertaining race to get there. At least when it was two teams, there was entertainment in the fact that one fluky loss could end you, and a team that wasn't actually the best, could get enough breaks to get there. Going from 2 to 4 has eliminated those things more or less, and has sucked too much of the entertainment out of the national championship chase.
I think we could comfortably go to 8, and I still don't think you would see a bunch of fluky national champions. How many upsets have we seen in the CFP? Let alone a team pulling off three of those in a row. I think that would strike a good balance between entertainment and allowing the best team to win it. A 5-1-2 model. I kind of like the idea of working in some sort of group of five tournament to determine who gets that one bed, even if that is not plausible. Maybe you get rid of their conference championship games, and have the two best group of five teams play each other during championship weekend?
Don't you do the simulation where every conference champion makes it? I kind of like that - maybe have some byes for the top teams, throw in some at large teams to make the numbers right.
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Players
So Gonzaga is reeling in great classes with their sales pitch? Why don't you go look that up and get back to me.
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To me it boils down to college football is way too far on the side of actually letting the best team be national champion, and college basketball being way too far on the entertainment side.
Been sayin' it for years.
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They didn't?
The first tournament the Bulldogs ever made was in 1995. The second was in 1999. I'm looking at a couple reference sites, they seem to say Gonzaga was one of the last 8 teams in the field?
Yes, I found conflicting sites. Ugh.
Had to actually see the evidence on youtube.
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Importance is in the eye of the beholder.
If you are a Midwestern guy who cares more about the MAC than the SEC, then in your world the MAC CCG is more important than the SEC CCG.
My problem with how things are now is that the NCAA or whoever perpetuates this lie that the MAC champ is eligible (and thus, is safe to yearn for) the national championship. But in reality, they're not.
All I want to happen is for that lie to end.
Any expansion to the playoff (or the current model as-is) including a 'best' G5 team continues to perpetuate the lie. There's no need.
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To me it boils down to college football is way too far on the side of actually letting the best team be national champion, and college basketball being way too far on the entertainment side.
Where you fall, is how important each is to you. And I think the end result of basketball is closer to producing a true champion than college football is to producing an entertaining race to get there. At least when it was two teams, there was entertainment in the fact that one fluky loss could end you, and a team that wasn't actually the best, could get enough breaks to get there. Going from 2 to 4 has eliminated those things more or less, and has sucked too much of the entertainment out of the national championship chase.
I think we could comfortably go to 8, and I still don't think you would see a bunch of fluky national champions. How many upsets have we seen in the CFP? Let alone a team pulling off three of those in a row. I think that would strike a good balance between entertainment and allowing the best team to win it. A 5-1-2 model. I kind of like the idea of working in some sort of group of five tournament to determine who gets that one bed, even if that is not plausible. Maybe you get rid of their conference championship games, and have the two best group of five teams play each other during championship weekend?
So let's look at NCAA tournament history.
Since the move to a 64 [65 or 68] team field, we have 35 tournaments.
There are >300 teams in CFB. If you assume that the level of "elite" teams is anywhere near the same ratio as it is in CFB, where we're letting 4 teams into the playoff as "elite", somewhere around the 12 mark would make sense as "legitimate" champs per OAM, right?
So, here's what we've got:
- 22 were won by the #1 seed
- 5 were won by the #2 seed
- 4 were won by the #3 seed
- 1 was won by the #4 seed (1997)
- 1 was won by the #6 seed (1988)
- 1 was won by the #7 seed (2014)
- 1 was won by the #8 seed (1984)
88% of the tournaments were won by the top 3 seeds. Two of the three most egregious examples of "unworthy" champs were over 30 years ago.
In the 2014 tournament, UConn as the 7 seed beat the 10, the 2, the 3, and the 4 to make the Final Four. Not exactly a "broken bracket" except not facing the #1 in the Elite Eight. UConn then beat a 1 seed (Florida) to advance to the title game, where they faced 8th-seeded Kentucky. So even in the only recent year that an "unworthy" team won it, it wasn't because they faced a road to the title like Houston would have had this year. And it's not like UConn was a terrible team. They'd flirted with top-10 rankings early in the season, faced a couple losses to fall out of the ranking, but finished (pre-tourney) at 18th in the AP and 20th in the Coaches poll.
I think the system is doing a pretty damned good job of crowning a champion. Is it the "best" team? We don't know, but it's not like we're regularly seeing unworthy teams win it.
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Why even have an occasional 18th-ranked team win the national championship? What's the argument FOR that?
3rd in their conference
Never ranked above 9th
Lost to UL 3 times
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And that's the team we're putting down in the annals as the season's champion. Awesome.
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Rational point.
Rational point
Rational point.
WTF? Being against an expanded playoff is now woke? Says who? Go bitch and moan and boycott over a guy kneeling during a song, snowflake.
I didn't mention anything at all about playoff expansion or National Anthem protests in my post, you maniac.
Switch to decaf. Or layoff the Meth.
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Both? - that's a tall order
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The CFP is irrelevant to a Purdue fan. I care about it in the same way a Camry owner cares about the Nurburgring lap times of Ferraris and Lambos...
Ya well us Corolla owners do
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Wow. Just wow.
Well holy hell
What'd I miss besides the Game?
Edit:just saw it,dayum
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Why even have an occasional 18th-ranked team win the national championship? What's the argument FOR that?
3rd in their conference
Never ranked above 9th
Lost to UL 3 times
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And that's the team we're putting down in the annals as the season's champion. Awesome.
The argument for it is that the NCAA Tournament has a clear and objective path to inclusion in the field--winning your conference--and everyone else has to win the beauty pageant to get a bid.
Whereas in football you can lose, miss your conference championship, and get put into the field over a team that actually won something who is excluded.
When someone takes that and says "yeah, well, the NCAA tournament is all about excitement and not crowning a champion" I will retort and say the NCAA tournament does BOTH well. If, in the last 30 years, that UConn team is the worst example of a champion, I'd say they're doing a pretty good job.
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So let's look at NCAA tournament history.
Since the move to a 64 [65 or 68] team field, we have 35 tournaments.
So, here's what we've got:
- 22 were won by the #1 seed
- 5 were won by the #2 seed
- 4 were won by the #3 seed
- 1 was won by the #4 seed (1997)
- 1 was won by the #6 seed (1988)
- 1 was won by the #7 seed (2014)
- 1 was won by the #8 seed (1984)
88% of the tournaments were won by the top 3 seeds. Two of the three most egregious examples of "unworthy" champs were over 30 years ago.
Tonight's CG will be won by a #1 seed so now it is 23 of 36 (64%) won by #1 seeds and 32 of 36 (89%) won by top-3 seeds. The other four are the four for which you included years, one each by a #4, #6, #7, and #8 seed.
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That all sounds great, if you don't multiply by 4, like you should. I don't find the fact that the basketball national champion has been a top 12 team 90% of the time impressive at all.
Yes, I prefer the football method of the NC being a top 4 team 100% of the time.
I'm surprised at how so few (if anybody) are advocating for an expanded 8-team CFP which includes GULP the top 8 teams. Even that would be far superior to basektball's system, in terms of competition.
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That all sounds great, if you don't multiply by 4, like you should. I don't find the fact that the basketball national champion has been a top 12 team 90% of the time impressive.
Yes, I prefer the football method of the NC being a top 4 team 100% of the time.
I'm surprised at how so few (is anybody) advocating for an expanded 8-team CFP which includes GULP the top 8 teams. Even that would be far superior to basektball's system, in terms of competition.
As judged by the committee.
Admittedly, I trust them more than the pollsters, but we don't know what goes on in the room where they decide who gets in... They could be reading chicken entrails for all we know.
In 2014, there was a legitimate debate as to who the #4 team should be. You had two co-champions from the B12 because they didn't have a CCG, and you had 12-1 B1G champ OSU who was on their 3rd-string QB who had started all of one game. Then that 4-seed won it all.
Heck, if the committee knows who the best teams are, why has the #1 seed only won 28% of the CFPs we've played--a number equal to the number of #4 seeds who have won it?
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Through 36 tournaments this is how each seed has done at reaching each level:
(https://i.imgur.com/Dok44ad.png)
This is the percentage of the total of that seed to reach that level, not the percentage of those that got there to win, example:
- 99.31% of all #1 seeds have won their R64 game.
- 85.42% of all #1 seeds have won their R32 game to get to the S16.
- . . .
- 15.97% of all #1 seeds have won the NC.
Here are the records by round by seed:
(https://i.imgur.com/Ad9uWjc.png)
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That all sounds great, if you don't multiply by 4, like you should. I don't find the fact that the basketball national champion has been a top 12 team 90% of the time impressive at all.
Yes, I prefer the football method of the NC being a top 4 team 100% of the time.
I'm surprised at how so few (if anybody) are advocating for an expanded 8-team CFP which includes GULP the top 8 teams. Even that would be far superior to basektball's system, in terms of competition.
There are 350 schools that play D1 basketball.
There are only 130 schools that play FBS football.
That must be factored in as well.
A top 4 team in a football tournament is roughly equivalent to a top 12 team in the basketball tourney, so the appropriate comparison is to all 3-seeds and better.
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As judged by the committee.
Admittedly, I trust them more than the pollsters, but we don't know what goes on in the room where they decide who gets in... They could be reading chicken entrails for all we know.
In 2014, there was a legitimate debate as to who the #4 team should be. You had two co-champions from the B12 because they didn't have a CCG, and you had 12-1 B1G champ OSU who was on their 3rd-string QB who had started all of one game. Then that 4-seed won it all.
Heck, if the committee knows who the best teams are, why has the #1 seed only won 28% of the CFPs we've played--a number equal to the number of #4 seeds who have won it?
so, in hoops there are 4) #1 seeds.
How many times has the #1 overall seed won in basketball?
will the Zags win it tonight?
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That all sounds great, if you don't multiply by 4, like you should. I don't find the fact that the basketball national champion has been a top 12 team 90% of the time impressive at all.
Yes, I prefer the football method of the NC being a top 4 team 100% of the time.
I'm surprised at how so few (if anybody) are advocating for an expanded 8-team CFP which includes GULP the top 8 teams. Even that would be far superior to basektball's system, in terms of competition.
so, you'd be fine with a basketball tournament simply being a final 4 with the top 4 overall seeds?
I'd be ok with that. That would be similar to football
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so, you'd be fine with a basketball tournament simply being a final 4 with the top 4 overall seeds?
I'd be ok with that. That would be similar to football
That wouldn't be similar to the football tournament at all.
A top 4 in football is like a top 11-12 in basketball. To get it to the "top 4 team basketball team equivalent" in football, you'd only have one football team in the tourney. Maybe 1.3 teams, if you don't want to round.
So I guess you'd have Alabama versus the best 27 players on Clemson's team.
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so, in hoops there are 4) #1 seeds.
How many times has the #1 overall seed won in basketball?
will the Zags win it tonight?
Not sure how many times the overall #1 seed has won it all, nor do I care.
My argument is that we have, whether in football or basketball, very limited information. Even if we are supposed to be "experts", like the CFP committee or the tournament selection committee. They are not infallible and should not be treated as such.
If they were infallible, we wouldn't have a playoff at all. The committees could just decide, after the season has concluded, who the best team is and crown them. That's how we used to do it in CFB, except "the committee" was pollsters.
OAM said since the CFP, we know that national champion will come from the top 4 teams in the nation. I split hairs on that because we only know that the champion will come from the 4 teams the committee has told us are the top 4 teams, and I suggest they're not infallible because the #1 seed has won the exact same number of CFP championships as the #4 seed. It is very limited sample size, so this could just be a statistical oddity and not mean anything. But you can also argue if the difference in quality is close enough that the #4 team is winning at that rate, the #5 team is just as close.
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Not sure how many times the overall #1 seed has won it all, nor do I care.
My argument is that we have, whether in football or basketball, very limited information. Even if we are supposed to be "experts", like the CFP committee or the tournament selection committee. They are not infallible and should not be treated as such.
If they were infallible, we wouldn't have a playoff at all. The committees could just decide, after the season has concluded, who the best team is and crown them. That's how we used to do it in CFB, except "the committee" was pollsters.
OAM said since the CFP, we know that national champion will come from the top 4 teams in the nation. I split hairs on that because we only know that the champion will come from the 4 teams the committee has told us are the top 4 teams, and I suggest they're not infallible because the #1 seed has won the exact same number of CFP championships as the #4 seed. It is very limited sample size, so this could just be a statistical oddity and not mean anything. But you can also argue if the difference in quality is close enough that the #4 team is winning at that rate, the #5 team is just as close.
Maybe, maybe not. Here is an example from BB:
The #9 seed has a slightly better than .500 record against the #8 seed in first round games (74-70). One could look at that and conclude that the committee is clueless because their superior #8 seeds haven't even won 50% of the time against their inferior #9 seeds.
I would point out, however, that the #8 seeds do vastly better the rest of the way:
In R32 games:
- #8's are 14-56 (.200) against #1's
- #9's are 6-67 (.083) against #1's and 7-67 (.095) overall
S16 games:
- #8's are 8-6
- #9's are 4-3, same % but half the attempts.
E8 games:
- #8's are 5-3 (.625)
- #9's are 1-3 (.250)
F4 games:
- #8's are 3-2 (.600)
- #9's are 0-1
Championship games:
- #8's are 1-2
- #9's have never made it.
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That wouldn't be similar to the football tournament at all.
A top 4 in football is like a top 11-12 in basketball. To get it to the "top 4 team basketball team equivalent" in football, you'd only have one football team in the tourney. Maybe 1.3 teams, if you don't want to round.
So I guess you'd have Alabama versus the best 27 players on Clemson's team.
go ahead and add the football teams outside the Power 5 conferences. That's all that happens in basketball.
Bama, Clemson, Ohio st., Oklahoma, and Notre Dame are still going to be the top 5 year in and year out. Harvard's football team isn't going to be in the top for anymore likely than Harvard's basketball team is going to be a #1 seed.
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go ahead and add the football teams outside the Power 5 conferences. That's all that happens in basketball.
Bama, Clemson, Ohio st., Oklahoma, and Notre Dame are still going to be the top 5 year in and year out. Harvard's football team isn't going to be in the top for anymore likely than Harvard's basketball team is going to be a #1 seed.
I did. There are 130 FBS schools in football.
There are 350 D1 basketball schools. Almost 3x as many.
So you have to compare a top 4 in football, to around a top 12 in basketball.
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well, you can, but the top 4 is the top 4, regardless of how many teams
if football had 350 schools, Bama would still be in the top 4, regardless
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well, you can, but the top 4 is the top 4, regardless of how many teams
if football had 350 schools, Bama would still be in the top 4, regardless
You're making an adequate argument for having a ZERO team football tournament, which is fine with me. Go back to the old bowl system and call it a day.
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fine by me
it would also be fine by me to have a 4 team basketball playoff similar to football
if that's what Orangeman wants to assure s cinderella doesn't sneak in with a couple upsets
any team outside the top 20 in football or basketball really isn't relevant to the national championship award
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fine by me
it would also be fine by me to have a 4 team basketball playoff similar to football
if that's what Orangeman wants to assure s cinderella doesn't sneak in with a couple upsets
any team outside the top 20 in football or basketball really isn't relevant to the national championship award
I'd say any team outside the top 6 or 8 in football isn't legitimately going to challenge for the NC.
And the numbers posted on this thread suggest that ALMOST any team outside the top 12 in basketball isn't legitimately going to challenge for the NC, either.
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Maybe, maybe not. Here is an example from BB:
The #9 seed has a slightly better than .500 record against the #8 seed in first round games (74-70). One could look at that and conclude that the committee is clueless because their superior #8 seeds haven't even won 50% of the time against their inferior #9 seeds.
I would point out, however, that the #8 seeds do vastly better the rest of the way:
True. I'm not saying seeding doesn't work at all. You should expect better seeds to be superior teams. I think some of those #9 results fall victim to the same complaint that my cherry-picking of #4 in the CFP winning it all compared to #1 has--small sample size.
My argument isn't really about seeding at all--it's about equity. I don't think the CFP is a good process for selecting the field, nor do I think it does anything more than the polls or BCS to create a "real" champion. It's just a larger beauty pageant than what came before it.
But if I can sow doubt that the CFP committee consistently picks the best 4 teams, and can use the argument that their consensus worst team of the 4 wins the whole dang thing as often as their consensus best team, I'll use that limited sample size to make my point :72:
go ahead and add the football teams outside the Power 5 conferences. That's all that happens in basketball.
Bama, Clemson, Ohio st., Oklahoma, and Notre Dame are still going to be the top 5 year in and year out. Harvard's football team isn't going to be in the top for anymore likely than Harvard's basketball team is going to be a #1 seed.
Well, that's not ALL that happens in basketball. Half the field is auto-bids, mostly teams that have absolutely zero shot to win it, but the other half of the field is at-large selections. IIRC there are around 33 conferences, which would mean that 35 teams are at-large selections. That's a much bigger number than in football, even proportionately to the size of the sport.
The difference is that teams have an objective path to getting into the tournament in basketball, whereas in football teams have to both perform on the field and hope that performance is enough to win a beauty pageant that nobody has explained the clear rules to, but always seem to favor the helmets.
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might not be clear rules to the beauty pageant, but programs at that level have a decent idea of what they need to do on the field.
If they are in doubt they can upgrade their non-con schedule
and yes they favor helmets. in 2008 when Dabo arrived at Clemson, the Tigers were not cornsidered a helmet. They are today, so there is also a path to obtain helmet status.
It's earned on the field of play.
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might not be clear rules to the beauty pageant, but programs at that level have a decent idea of what they need to do on the field.
If they are in doubt they can upgrade their non-con schedule
and yes they favor helmets. in 2008 when Dabo arrived at Clemson, the Tigers were not cornsidered a helmet. They are today, so there is also a path to obtain helmet status.
It's earned on the field of play.
No guarantee Clemson remains what it is now when Dabo leaves. They are just the latest shiny new toy.
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that's for sure
now if we could just get Saban to retire
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and yes they favor helmets. in 2008 when Dabo arrived at Clemson, the Tigers were not cornsidered a helmet. They are today, so there is also a path to obtain helmet status.
It's earned on the field of play.
:96: Blasphemahhhhh!!!!!
I'm glad you agree with me.
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No guarantee Clemson remains what it is now when Dabo leaves. They are just the latest shiny new toy.
I think Clemson will continue to get BOTD unless/until they poop the bed badly a couple times. They already have the easiest path to the playoffs every year, playing through by far the weakest conference.
That doesn't mean they're not a very good team, they've beaten Alabama and other really good teams in the playoff plenty enough.
But they also have the greatest margin for error in the regular season due to the conference they play in.
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Well, that's not ALL that happens in basketball. Half the field is auto-bids, mostly teams that have absolutely zero shot to win it, but the other half of the field is at-large selections. IIRC there are around 33 conferences, which would mean that 35 teams are at-large selections. That's a much bigger number than in football, even proportionately to the size of the sport.
The difference is that teams have an objective path to getting into the tournament in basketball, whereas in football teams have to both perform on the field and hope that performance is enough to win a beauty pageant that nobody has explained the clear rules to, but always seem to favor the helmets.
FWIW, there were 31 leagues in 2020/2021. That is one less than usual because the Ivy League sat the year out due to COVID-19.
Of the 31 leagues:
- Five had at least 1/2 of their teams in the top 68 of the final NET Rankings (B1G, B12, SEC, ACC, Beast)
- Another five had less than 1/2 but at least 1/4 of their teams in the top 68 of the final NET Rankings (P12, MWC, A10, WCC, AAC).
- The MVC had two of their 10 teams in the top 68 of the final NET Rankings.
- Another five had exactly one of their 10-14 teams in the top 68 of the final NET Rankings (Patriot, B-West, B-South, MAC, C-USA).
- The other 15 leagues had no teams ranked in the top 68 of the final NET Rankings. This is a range from three conferences whose best team was ranked in the 70's down to the SWAC whose best team was #201.
Those figures are fairly similar to the previous tournament (2019) when:
- Five leagues had at least 1/2 of their teams in top 68 of the final NET Rankings (B12, B1G, SEC, ACC, B-East).
- Another three had less than half but more than a quarter of their teams in the top 68 of the final NET Rankings (AAC, P12, SoCon).
- Another five had exactly two of their 9-12 teams in the top 68 of the final NET Rankings (ASUN, WCC, MWC, MAC, OVC).
- Another three had exactly one of their 9-14 teams ranked in the top 68 of the final NET Rankings (WAC, B-West, A10).
- The other 16 leagues had no teams ranked in the top 68 of the final NET Rankings. This ranged from two leagues with a team ranked in the 70's to four leagues without a team ranked in the top 200.
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I think Clemson will continue to get BOTD unless/until they poop the bed badly a couple times. They already have the easiest path to the playoffs every year, playing through by far the weakest conference.
That doesn't mean they're not a very good team, they've beaten Alabama and other really good teams in the playoff plenty enough.
But they also have the greatest margin for error in the regular season due to the conference they play in.
this implies it's not about what conference or 50+ seasons of performance
if BYU or Boise St. go undefeated in conference a few times, earn their place in the 4-team playoff, and THEN take down Bama, or Clemson, or Ohio St, or a top 4 Sooner team, they will earn helmet status just as easily as Clemson.
same goes for any team in the SEC or Big Ten, such as Purdue or Indiana. Win the Big 12 or SEC, get to the playoff, and THEN beat some top 4 teams a few seasons. It's there for them.
it's not easy, but it's not easy for Ohio St. or Clemson, or Bama
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I'm surprised at how so few (if anybody) are advocating for an expanded 8-team CFP which includes GULP the top 8 teams. Even that would be far superior to basektball's system, in terms of competition.
Just to clarify where I am coming from:
My inclusion of the "tallest midget" (highest ranked non-P5 Champion) is NOT because I think they deserve the spot or because I think they'd have any chance of winning. I include them in my proposal for three reasons:
- The P5/BCS was threatened with litigation and/or Congressional anti-trust investigation for excluding the non-P5 leagues. The same thing would happen if we expanded to an eight team playoff without including a path for the non-P5. Ie, it is a pragmatic consideration, we have to include them whether or not you or I or the P5 commissioners want to.
- Placing them in against one of the country's best teams is going to illustrate the gap between the top of the G5 and the top of the P5. I believe that gap is humongous. For example, in 2019 Ohio State was one of the best P5 teams. Coincidentally, Cincinnati was one of the best non-P5 teams. When they played that year the Buckeyes won 42-0. A string of blowout wins by high seeded P5 Champions over the best G5 team will quiet down the ridiculous G5 complaints. Instead of UCF winning an exhibition bowl and declaring themselves National Champions, they'll get smoked by BAMA/Clemson/tOSU and the gap will be visible to all.
- Since I would seed the playoff and have the top four league Champions host the first round, including the top G5 Champion would be a reward for the #1 league Champion.
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sure, the #1 overall seed almost gets a bye, without getting a bye
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One fact that gets VERY little attention is that expanding the playoff actually makes it LESS likely that a non Helmet (or at least near-helmet) team will win the NC.
Look at the BYU example. We all know that their NC was a ridiculous joke, but they have that trophy in their case. It took a lot of luck and a bunch of clueless poll voters, but it happened.
Consider a team like Purdue:
Pre-BCS:
To win an NC the Boilermakers would have needed an undefeated season including a Rose Bowl win. That is difficult, but not impossible even for a team that isn't actually THAT good. Maybe they hit a year where they upset one of tOSU or Michigan. Maybe they don't play the other. Maybe the best team in the Pac is suspended from postseason games so they get a weaker RB opponent.
BCS era:
To win an NC the Boilermakers needed an undefeated season and one postseason upset. Again, not easy but stranger things have happened.
CFP era:
Now they MIGHT be able to get in with a loss, but they would have to be B1G Champions so they'd need AT LEAST an 11-1 regular season then three straight wins over increasingly good teams. They have no chance without actually building up their program to a level they probably could never achieve.
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My argument isn't really about seeding at all--it's about equity. I don't think the CFP is a good process for selecting the field, nor do I think it does anything more than the polls or BCS to create a "real" champion. It's just a larger beauty pageant than what came before it.
I think there is a middle ground between @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) and others insisting that we include only the "best" teams and @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) and others insisting that we provide a clear path and thus give every team a chance.
On a theoretical level, I agree with OAM. In theory, I think that the playoff should consist only of the best "x" teams where "x" is the number of teams included.
That said, the problem is that interleague play is so limited that we really have only a limited idea as to the relative strength of the SEC and B1G in a given season.
We saw this happen this year in CBB. Pre-tournament the ratings all said that the B1G was far-and-away the best league and that the Pac wasn't very good. The tournament showed us that the B1G and ACC were overrated while the Pac was underrated.
The same thing can and does happen in football.
In BB we handle this by going to the extreme of reserving a spot for every league champion no matter how ridiculous their inclusion is. 36 tournaments have amply demonstrated that those bottom 10+ league champions don't actually contribute anything to the NC race.
In football we go to the opposite extreme and don't technically reserve spots for any league Champions.
I think that both sports would be better served by reserving spots for league champions but making that conditional on the strength of the league in question. In BB I'd like to see the auto bids limited to something like:
- The top-20 highest ranked league Champions, or
- The champions of each league that has at least one team in the top-100 or 128 of the final rankings.
That way there would be auto bids for all decent league champions but we wouldn't need to include champions from the worst leagues.
In football I think that the 5+1+2 proposal handles it. Entry would be within each program's (if not each team's) control. If you are a G5 that doesn't make it because another G5 Champ is ranked higher, schedule some decent OOC games! If the P12 is underrated their Champions will have an opportunity to prove that because they'll still get a bid, etc.
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this implies it's not about what conference or 50+ seasons of performance
if BYU or Boise St. go undefeated in conference a few times, earn their place in the 4-team playoff, and THEN take down Bama, or Clemson, or Ohio St, or a top 4 Sooner team, they will earn helmet status just as easily as Clemson.
same goes for any team in the SEC or Big Ten, such as Purdue or Indiana. Win the Big 12 or SEC, get to the playoff, and THEN beat some top 4 teams a few seasons. It's there for them.
it's not easy, but it's not easy for Ohio St. or Clemson, or Bama
Clemson definitely has some helmet status, they've earned it. I think we've all acknowledged over the years that there are degrees of helmetosity and it can wax and wane over time.
All helmet status really gets you, with respect to the playoffs, is the BOTD from the committee. In days past, it gave you BOTD with the poll voters. BOTD gives you the nod over someone else, with everything else being generally equal.
It'd be interesting to me, though, to see what happens if say, Clemson loses one game in the ACC, and Ohio State loses one game in the B1G, but they each win their CCGs, and the other three major conferences all produce an undefeated conference champ. Is Clemson's new helmet shinier than Ohio State's long-standing one?
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Clemson definitely has some helmet status, they've earned it. I think we've all acknowledged over the years that there are degrees of helmetosity and it can wax and wane over time.
All helmet status really gets you, with respect to the playoffs, is the BOTD from the committee. In days past, it gave you BOTD with the poll voters. BOTD gives you the nod over someone else, with everything else being generally equal.
It'd be interesting to me, though, to see what happens if say, Clemson loses one game in the ACC, and Ohio State loses one game in the B1G, but they each win their CCGs, and the other three major conferences all produce an undefeated conference champ. Is Clemson's new helmet shinier than Ohio State's long-standing one?
Right now, I think tOSU would get that nod, but it isn't because tOSU has a longer standing as a helmet, it is because tOSU beat Clemson last time they played. If you had asked thus question prior to the 2020 tOSU/Clemson game I'd have said that Clemson would get the nod.
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Back to BB, who is everyone rooting for tonight and why?
I'm rooting for Baylor because I am unapologetically a major conference elitist.
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I picked the Zags in my bracket so I'm going with them, even though I'm hopelessly out of the money
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Back to BB, who is everyone rooting for tonight and why?
I'm rooting for Baylor because I am unapologetically a major conference elitist.
Baylor. Wife's bracket will finish 7th in our bracket challenge with a Baylor win, and top 10 is in the money.
First time she's ever done a bracket, and she's certainly tickled that she did way better than me lol...
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One fact that gets VERY little attention is that expanding the playoff actually makes it LESS likely that a non Helmet (or at least near-helmet) team will win the NC.
Look at the BYU example. We all know that their NC was a ridiculous joke, but they have that trophy in their case. It took a lot of luck and a bunch of clueless poll voters, but it happened.
Consider a team like Purdue:
Pre-BCS:
To win an NC the Boilermakers would have needed an undefeated season including a Rose Bowl win. That is difficult, but not impossible even for a team that isn't actually THAT good. Maybe they hit a year where they upset one of tOSU or Michigan. Maybe they don't play the other. Maybe the best team in the Pac is suspended from postseason games so they get a weaker RB opponent.
BCS era:
To win an NC the Boilermakers needed an undefeated season and one postseason upset. Again, not easy but stranger things have happened.
CFP era:
Now they MIGHT be able to get in with a loss, but they would have to be B1G Champions so they'd need AT LEAST an 11-1 regular season then three straight wins over increasingly good teams. They have no chance without actually building up their program to a level they probably could never achieve.
I think your bolded section is correct, and that's partly what I was trying to point out with breaking down the tournament seeds who have actually won the whole thing.
I think OAM doesn't like the fact that UMBC can come into the tournament as a 16 and upset 1-seeded Virginia. It's too much "excitement" over "competition". He'd rather have Cinderella languishing in her wicked stepmother's service than let a commoner attend the ball and catch the eye of the prince.
But in reality, it doesn't really happen. What really happens is that Cinderella gets to the ball, if she's lucky she gives the prince a handie in a bathroom thinking that'll make him like her, but at the end of the night she goes back to her sad, lonely life as a peasant.
We love the excitement of the NCAA tournament. We love watching high seeds get knocked out by teams you have to look up on Wikipedia to find out in what state their campus is even located. But by the NC, Cinderella has been sent home and only the nobility remains.
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No guarantee Clemson remains what it is now when Dabo leaves. They are just the latest shiny new toy.
I mean, they might be worse at cheating but the money is still gonna be there
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You're making an adequate argument for having a ZERO team football tournament, which is fine with me. Go back to the old bowl system and call it a day.
I honestly wonder what such a thing would look like in the modern media landscape. The world and how we consume sports it’s just so different from the bowl coalition days and before that.
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I think your bolded section is correct, and that's partly what I was trying to point out with breaking down the tournament seeds who have actually won the whole thing.
I think OAM doesn't like the fact that UMBC can come into the tournament as a 16 and upset 1-seeded Virginia. It's too much "excitement" over "competition". He'd rather have Cinderella languishing in her wicked stepmother's service than let a commoner attend the ball and catch the eye of the prince.
But in reality, it doesn't really happen. What really happens is that Cinderella gets to the ball, if she's lucky she gives the prince a handie in a bathroom thinking that'll make him like her, but at the end of the night she goes back to her sad, lonely life as a peasant.
We love the excitement of the NCAA tournament. We love watching high seeds get knocked out by teams you have to look up on Wikipedia to find out in what state their campus is even located. But by the NC, Cinderella has been sent home and only the nobility remains.
That is certainly an interesting way to put it!
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While we are talking about it - I think the 64 team tourney is absolute perfection and they don't need to touch it. Since they seem intent on touching it, it would be fun if instead of this first four crap, they picked some bubble teams and had them play for a spot in the tourney, but before they seeded it. So UCLA/MSU could still be played, and the winner put into the tourney, but not as a weird UCLA/MSU 11 seed on your bracket.
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So then do it in a best of seven series with double elimination rounds, and consolation brackets. Lots of consolation brackets.
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While we are talking about it - I think the 64 team tourney is absolute perfection and they don't need to touch it. Since they seem intent on touching it, it would be fun if instead of this first four crap, they picked some bubble teams and had them play for a spot in the tourney, but before they seeded it. So UCLA/MSU could still be played, and the winner put into the tourney, but not as a weird UCLA/MSU 11 seed on your bracket.
While I agree, the whole thing was a compromise, with some coaches and conferences who wanted to go to 96. The coaches were under some weird belief that it would be hard to fire them if they could go to tournaments. Instead all that would happen is nobody would care about a 13-18 12th place finish that wound up as a 15 seed, just like AD stopped caring about bad bowl bids. All it would have meant was that most of those terrible conference champions were weaned out before we even got to 64, and would get to watch Duke play terrible power 5 teams
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While I agree, the whole thing was a compromise, with some coaches and conferences who wanted to go to 96. The coaches were under some weird belief that it would be hard to fire them if they could go to tournaments. Instead all that would happen is nobody would care about a 13-18 12th place finish that wound up as a 15 seed, just like AD stopped caring about bad bowl bids. All it would have meant was that most of those terrible conference champions were weaned out before we even got to 64, and would get to watch Duke play terrible power 5 teams
What would the format be with 96? That would be 24 seeds in each region and 9-24 would have to play a first round game while 1-8 got byes, right. So pods would be:
- 1, 8, 9, 16, 17, 24: 9/24 and 16/17 first round
- 2, 7, 10, 15, 18, 23: 10/23 and 15/18 first round
- 3, 6, 11, 14, 19, 22: 11/22 and 14/19 first round
- 4, 5, 12, 13, 20, 21: 12/21 and 13/20 first round
So your rounds would be:
- 32 games to get from 96 down to 64 teams. 16 games per day, four games per site.
- 32 games to get from 64 down to 32 teams. 16 games per day, four games per site
- 16 games to get from 32 down to 16 teams. 8 games per day, two games per site.
- 8 games to get from 16 down to 8 teams. 4 games per day, two games per regional site.
- 4 games to get from 8 down to 4 teams. 2 games per day, one game per regional site.
- 2 games to get from 4 down to 2 teams. 2 games per day, two games at F4 site.
- 1 game.
If we were to expand, I think 80 makes more sense because I don't think many fans would take time off to watch 9/24 through 16/17 games and those would presumably be Thursday/Friday.
I think 80 makes more sense because the field wouldn't be as badly diluted and because you'd only have 8 games per day in the first round so the bulk of them could be in prime time.
My thinking is that with 80 teams the first round would be interesting and easy enough to watch that you'd get general buy in but with 96 teams and twice as many first round games I think casual fans would just ignore it and wait for the "real" tournament to start once it was down to 64 teams.
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Hell of a start for Baylor. You know it's interesting, by recruiting rankings this is a big time school against a plucky upstart, but Baylor is definitely the plucky upstart.
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enjoying the game so far
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enjoying the game so far
I was enjoying it more when Baylor was up 19!
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Another year of the Championship won by a major conference team.
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I think OAM doesn't like the fact that UMBC can come into the tournament as a 16 and upset 1-seeded Virginia. It's too much "excitement" over "competition". He'd rather have Cinderella languishing in her wicked stepmother's service than let a commoner attend the ball and catch the eye of the prince.
Why does everyone seem to have to go here?
No, I don't give 2 shits about the pseudo good vs evil cartoony bullshit narratives in sports. I care about the sports themselves. And this makes me some kind of heartless dickhead.
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Cool.
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IMHO, it is difficult for a team to switch back and forth between levels of competition.
Gonzaga's Nov/Dec schedule was very strong. They opened with Kansas and by December 26 they had also played Auburn, WVU, Iowa, and Virginia.
Then for two and a half months from 12/26 through late March their idea of a tough game was . . .
BYU.
I think it is difficult to re-adjust to playing quality opponents after playing crap for so long.
Congratulations Baylor!
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IMHO, it is difficult for a team to switch back and forth between levels of competition.
Gonzaga's Nov/Dec schedule was very strong. They opened with Kansas and by December 26 they had also played Auburn, WVU, Iowa, and Virginia.
Then for two and a half months from 12/26 through late March their idea of a tough game was . . .
BYU.
I think it is difficult to re-adjust to playing quality opponents after playing crap for so long.
Congratulations Baylor!
I dunno, I think playing Baylor does that more than anything else. Baylor did to them what they did to every other team, which was get ridiculous pressure up front and rebound everything.
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I dunno, I think playing Baylor does that more than anything else. Baylor did to them what they did to every other team, which was get ridiculous pressure up front and rebound everything.
That is certainly a factor but Gonzaga was the favorite and they didn't just lose, they looked like they didn't belong. I think not playing a quality opponent for three months is a factor in that.
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Zags just had an off night
it happens
Baylor is solid and played a great game. Got a great start and kept the foot pedal down
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That is certainly a factor but Gonzaga was the favorite and they didn't just lose, they looked like they didn't belong. I think not playing a quality opponent for three months is a factor in that.
But they whipped Creighton, whipped USC, and but for UCLA being unable to miss long jumpers, would have whipped them too. Conversely, the entire B1G couldn't go a game without playing a tough opponent, then flamed out in the tourney. I just think Baylor is an unusually good team and the Zags got behind and could never quite make up the distance. I didn't at all think they looked like they shouldn't be there.
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But they whipped Creighton, whipped USC, and but for UCLA being unable to miss long jumpers, would have whipped them too. Conversely, the entire B1G couldn't go a game without playing a tough opponent, then flamed out in the tourney. I just think Baylor is an unusually good team and the Zags got behind and could never quite make up the distance. I didn't at all think they looked like they shouldn't be there.
I guess that is the fundamental weakness of a single elimination tournament. It is entirely possible that Gonzaga just had an off night or Baylor just had a great night. If this was a seven game series we'd find out. It isn't, so the one game result is the only thing we get.
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Yep, the champ was identified because they were hot and the undefeated team of greatness gets a poop sandwich for their efforts.
A brilliant system football should copy.
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Yep, the champ was identified because they were hot and the undefeated team of greatness gets a poop sandwich for their efforts.
A brilliant system football should copy.
So you're saying the undefeated team of greatness (UCF) should get declared national champion too?
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Or the undefeated Buckeyes in 2006, rather than the one loss Florida team that got hot at the right time?
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You guys aren't very good at what you're trying to do. :57:
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Yep, the champ was identified because they were hot and the undefeated team of greatness gets a poop sandwich for their efforts.
A brilliant system football should copy.
I will leave the joke making to someone else, and instead point this out. This system, for all its many flaws ended with the two best teams, based on the full season, playing against each other. Then one of them won.
there are other outcomes you can complain about, but this season’s outcome is literally on track with how the more selective system send it. This is just about no way it’s focused on the “hot” team.
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Yep, the champ was identified because they were hot and the undefeated team of greatness gets a poop sandwich for their efforts.
A brilliant system football should copy.
the same thing happens in a single game elimination 4-team tournament in football
football has already copied this
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You guys aren't very good at what you're trying to do. :57:
I just quibble with your "undefeated team of greatness" comment about Gonzaga.
They were ranked #1 in the country, playing in the West Coast Conference with a KenPom strength of schedule of 72nd overall--which includes all of their tourney games.
They did play a pretty good OOC slate, but prior to the tourney they hadn't played anyone decent since December. The best team they played to make it to the title game in the tourney was a 5 seed, and they almost lost to the 11 seed in the Final Four.
And then literally the best team they played all year beat the snot out of them.
Maybe the "undefeated team of greatness" was simply a veteran-laden team who overperformed early-season when other teams were still gelling after a COVID-disrupted year, and then by the time other teams were getting better, they had no more ceiling.
So you're saying that the undefeated team of greatness with a few good early OOC wins and then coasting through a sh!t conference, should have been crowned champion, but you don't allow the same for a UCF team from a sh!t conference that beat a B1G team OOC, and closed the season wonderfully with their final 3 games to beat a then-ranked USF team, beat a then-ranked Memphis team, and then finish beating #7-ranked Auburn in a Big Six bowl game.
What makes 2020 Gonzaga any more special than 2017 UCF?
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imagine if 2017 UCF would have been invited to the 4-team tourney?
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imagine if 2017 UCF would have been invited to the 4-team tourney?
They probably would have gotten beat just like Gonzaga, and OAM would feel sad for the undefeated team of greatness that didn't get their championship...
Right, OAM? :57:
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I just quibble with your "undefeated team of greatness" comment about Gonzaga.
What makes 2020 Gonzaga any more special than 2017 UCF?
Yeah.
I get it.
The "undefeated team of greatness" was tongue-in-cheek, akin to 2017 UCF.
I think we just sarcasmed 360 degrees.
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the same thing happens in a single game elimination 4-team tournament in football
football has already copied this
It's trying to, that's for sure.
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I will leave the joke making to someone else, and instead point this out. This system, for all its many flaws ended with the two best teams, based on the full season, playing against each other. Then one of them won.
there are other outcomes you can complain about, but this season’s outcome is literally on track with how the more selective system send it. This is just about no way it’s focused on the “hot” team.
Go back and tell us how many times the top 2 seeds ended up in the final.
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Go back and tell us how many times the top 2 seeds ended up in the final.
I generally agree with you, but the CG participants are almost always REALLY good teams. Since expansion (36 tournaments) they have been:
- 37 #1 seeds, 51.4%
- 12 #2 seeds, 16.7%, cumulatively 68%
- 11 #3 seeds, 15.3%, cumulatively 83%
- 3 #4 seeds, 4.2%, cumulatively 87.5%
- 3 #5 seeds, 4.2%, cumulatively 91.7%
- 2 #6 seeds, 2.8%, cumulatively 94.4%
- 1 #7 seed, 1.4%, cumulatively 95.8%
- 3 #8 seeds, 4.2%, cumulatively 100%
While I generally agree with you that we don't need tallest midget crap league champs, as a practical matter they haven't been a factor in BB despite 36 years of opportunity.
Note:
- No 16 seed has ever made the second weekend.
- No 13 or below has ever won a second weekend game.
- No 12 or below has ever made the third weekend.
- No 9 or below has ever made the CG.
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When it comes to actually winning the tournament, the highly seeded teams are even more dominant:
- #1's have won 23 of 36 tournaments, 63.9%
- #2's have won 5 of 36 tournaments, 13.9%, cumulatively 77.8%
- #3's have won 4 of 36 tournaments, 11.1%, cumulatively 88.9%
- #4's, #6's, #7's, and #8's have won 1 of 36 tournaments each, 2.8% each.
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Go back and tell us how many times the top 2 seeds ended up in the final.
You were. It talking about all those times. You were talking about this time.
And shoot, if you go back to the old way where one loss sinks you, as Medina pointed out, the chance of the “best” team making it goes down to a degree. Just different flavors of random.
(I have something longer I aim to say off something Median posted, but am tied up at work at the moment)
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I'd think we'd all embrace 'different flavors of random' with Bama and Clemson around.
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When it comes to actually winning the tournament, the highly seeded teams are even more dominant:
- #1's have won 23 of 36 tournaments, 63.9%
- #2's have won 5 of 36 tournaments, 13.9%, cumulatively 77.8%
- #3's have won 4 of 36 tournaments, 11.1%, cumulatively 88.9%
- #4's, #6's, #7's, and #8's have won 1 of 36 tournaments each, 2.8% each.
So technically, every NC has been from the top half of the seedings.
I wonder how long it would take for that to remain true in a 128-team tournament. I have no doubt that in 1,000 years, we'd have had a 64-seed or two win it all.
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So technically, every NC has been from the top half of the seedings.
I wonder how long it would take for that to remain true in a 128-team tournament. I have no doubt that in 1,000 years, we'd have had a 64-seed or two win it all.
Honestly, I doubt it. As I pointed out above, no 13 seed or below has ever won a second weekend game. Eventually, I'm sure that will happen probably because either:
- A 13 will get there and knock off a #8 or #9 that either took out #1 or took out a #16 that did, or
- A 14 will take out a 2, 7, or 10, or
- A 15 will take out a 3, 6, or 11, or
- A 14 and 15 will both make it to the same S16 game and one of them will have to win. Two #15's and two #14's have made it to the S16 so given enough chances eventually we'll see a 14/15 S16 match-up. *
That said, making the E8 is not the same thing as winning the tournament. In theory it is half way there but in practice the games tend to get tougher not easier. 11's have made the F4 but they have never even made it to the CG, let alone won it.
In 36 years there have been 144 of each seed so there have been 576 #13-#16 seeds and they are 0-576 at making the E8. Maybe in another 36 years one or a few will make the E8, so what. They still won't be National Champions.
Edit to fix math on 14/15 matchup.
*Oops!
I made a mistake. There haven't been 36 14's and 15's there have been 36 tournaments so 144 of each seed. Thus two of each (14's and 15's) to make the S16 so that is 1.39% so if I have the math right this time there is a 0.02% chance of both the #14 and the #15 making the same S16 game. Ie, it should happen once every 5,184 opportunities and there are four opportunities every year so it should happen once every 1 296 years.
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Honestly, I doubt it. As I pointed out above, no 13 seed or below has ever won a second weekend game. Eventually, I'm sure that will happen probably because either:
Note: OAM was talking about *if* it were expanded to 128 teams...
Hence the 13-16 seeds wouldn't be tall midgets, they'd be short P5 teams.
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One fact that gets VERY little attention is that expanding the playoff actually makes it LESS likely that a non Helmet (or at least near-helmet) team will win the NC.
Look at the BYU example. We all know that their NC was a ridiculous joke, but they have that trophy in their case. It took a lot of luck and a bunch of clueless poll voters, but it happened.
So, I think this kind of cuts to the crux of it.
The old system chase the undefeated-est team, which meant randomness abounds. Is relying on UCLA upsetting USC on the season's final week to swing a season that much different than a 13 upsetting a 4? Either one sacrifices some degree of finding "the best" for entertainment. Honestly, a tournament is more equitable because the ground rules are simpler. Win the games in front of you. CFB's old system couldn't even codify that.
And the idea of letting in the one small conference school isn't to make it more likely they'll win a title. It's to give them the ability to, even if that's just proof they never will. Sixteen seeds never beat one seeds, but there's a value in being there. There's a value in playing it out for everyone involved.
(OAM's 9-7 worries are interesting, but not all that actually concerning. In the NFL, the gap from the third-best team to the 13th best team is not unbelievably wide. In CFB, it very much is. And it's not like basketball, where the right two players and a hot shooting night can swing things. Football is wonky, and if anything, we've had the opposite problem)
Anyway, I don't know if a bigger playoff is the answer. I know the old system would likely be untenable in the modern landscape. But some of the concerns strike me as conflicting laments.
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Anyway, I don't know if a bigger playoff is the answer. I know the old system would likely be untenable in the modern landscape. But some of the concerns strike me as conflicting laments.
I don't think it is because I think it unavoidably dilutes the regular season but I think it is inevitable because there will always be pressure to expand for a multitude of reasons including:
- Controversy over 2/3, then 4/5, then 6/7, then 8/9 etc, and
- Pressure for inclusion to give small conference teams a chance,
- Financial pressure for more profitable playoff games.
Also, when (and I think it is when, not if) we expand, I think that the comissioners will be either actually or effectively forced to provide a path for non P5 teams by litigation or Congressional oversight or the credible threat of one or both of those. I mentioned this upthread and I'm curious as to @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) s thoughts.
Thus my preference is a 5+1+2 model including:
- The five P5 Champions, and
- The highest ranked non-P5 Champion, and
- The next two highest ranked teams.
Then I'd add the following stipulations:
- The four highest ranked league Champions host the first round (Quarter-Finals) in mid/late December.
- The semi-finals are slotted by seed (highest remaining seed plays lowest remaining seed) in the bowls at roughly NYD without regard to league titles.
This isn't what medinabuckeye would do if he was King, it is a pragmatic proposal that I feel is the best plausible solution once expansion inevitably happens.
Goals:
- Keep all regular season as meaningful as possible. This proposal accomplishes that by keeping OOC games meaningful because being seeded higher substantially increases the odds of winning a quarter-final and it keeps league games meaningful because you have to be a league champion to host a quarter-final.
- Prevent teams from having a reason to rest their starters and take a loss. Example, let's say that Bama and UF are undefeated and #1/2 heading into the SECCG. If everybody else has a loss or two then both are not just already in the CFP, but they are likely to be the top two seeds. My proposal still keeps the SECCG meaningful because the winner gets to host some hapless tallest midget in their quarter-final while the loser is going to have to travel across the country to play a P5 Champion.
- Try to promote both regional and national interest in the game. For all contenders (which would include all teams mathematically in their conference race) there is both regional competition (for the league title and a spot) and national competition (for seeding because there would frequently be a humongous difference between being the last team in and traveling to Tuscaloosa or being the 4th league champion and hosting your opponent).
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I would also say any at large team must have 9 wins over P5 opponents
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Also, when (and I think it is when, not if) we expand, I think that the comissioners will be either actually or effectively forced to provide a path for non P5 teams by litigation or Congressional oversight or the credible threat of one or both of those. I mentioned this upthread and I'm curious as to @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) s thoughts.
When it comes to this aspect of it, I's simply suggest the NCAA or whatever ruling body stop the lie that G5 can win a NC and either make them an in-between of P5 and FCS or relegate them to FCS.
I'm perfectly content with having things stay how they are and the best G5 team win a NC every year. But it would be theirs and not THE NC.
If that was done, you wouldn't venture into the murky waters of gov't oversight in sports.
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I would also say any at large team must have 9 wins over P5 opponents
That is an interesting thought. All non-champions would have at least one P5 loss. Assuming they played 10 P5 opponents (either eight conference and two OOC or nine conference and one OOC) this rule would only allow that one loss (9-1).
I'm not sure how I feel about it. I agree with what I assume to be your underlying theory but I'd rather see NC contenders play OOC games against high-end G5 teams than against P5 bottom feeders.
Using tOSU as an example, would you rather have them play Boise or Kansas?
When it comes to this aspect of it, I's simply suggest the NCAA or whatever ruling body stop the lie that G5 can win a NC and either make them an in-between of P5 and FCS or relegate them to FCS.
I'm perfectly content with having things stay how they are and the best G5 team win a NC every year. But it would be theirs and not THE NC.
If that was done, you wouldn't venture into the murky waters of gov't oversight in sports.
That would be fine by me, but I don't think it would be fine with the G5 so I do not think this would be a possible solution.
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So the G5 would rather continue along with the lie, knowing full well they're never getting the carrot?
Hell, I'd rather actually have a shot at a middle-ground NC than pretend that I have any shot at the real one. I feel like the G5 programs are in purgatory. Sure, they'd like to get into heaven, but those gates are locked.
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the G5 is more interested in the money than a shiny carrot
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Has it ever happened that two brothers got canned after the same season?
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So the G5 would rather continue along with the lie, knowing full well they're never getting the carrot?
I would guess that while some of their fans and administrators realize this, a lot do not. There are probably a lot of UCF fans/alums/etc who think "hey, upsets happen, we could beat Alabama in a one time game".
That is where the playoff really crushes their chances. If they could get in to a one game NC against Bama/Clemson/tOSU, they just might win. Given enough chances eventually they would. However, the chances of them winning consecutive games against Bama/Clemson/tOSU are basically zero and their chances of winning three straight against Bama/Clemson/tOSU in an eight-team playoff are zero.
Hell, I'd rather actually have a shot at a middle-ground NC than pretend that I have any shot at the real one. I feel like the G5 programs are in purgatory. Sure, they'd like to get into heaven, but those gates are locked.
As a fan, I agree with this. It is a lot more fun to root for YSU who has won and may again win the FCSNC than to be a fan of say Akron who has zero chance of winning an NC. I chose that comparison specifically because Akron used to be FCS and back when they were, YSU was one of their big rivals and they were a serious contender for the FCSNC.
Note, however that Akron actively sought to move up because . . .
the G5 is more interested in the money than a shiny carrot
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Has it ever happened that two brothers got canned after the same season?
While two other brothers won their conference (and one a national title)
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I would guess that while some of their fans and administrators realize this, a lot do not. There are probably a lot of UCF fans/alums/etc who think "hey, upsets happen, we could beat Alabama in a one time game".
That is where the playoff really crushes their chances. If they could get in to a one game NC against Bama/Clemson/tOSU, they just might win. Given enough chances eventually they would. However, the chances of them winning consecutive games against Bama/Clemson/tOSU are basically zero and their chances of winning three straight against Bama/Clemson/tOSU in an eight-team playoff are zero.As a fan, I agree with this. It is a lot more fun to root for YSU who has won and may again win the FCSNC than to be a fan of say Akron who has zero chance of winning an NC. I chose that comparison specifically because Akron used to be FCS and back when they were, YSU was one of their big rivals and they were a serious contender for the FCSNC.
Note, however that Akron actively sought to move up because . . .
Couple things.
First, I think their previous chance in a one off is hoping they don't even okay Bama. They go undefeated, and find a way to play 2011 Notre Dame, or the like.
Second, I strongly agree. If I were an Appalachian State fan, I would be pissed. I think being a small conference basketball school where the conference tourney is a big deal, and then hey, who knows, is fun. Hell, I love watching mid major tourney basketball. Once those start, I watch nearly no regular season high major games. But who cares about winning the Sun Belt in football?
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So the G5 would rather continue along with the lie, knowing full well they're never getting the carrot?
Hell, I'd rather actually have a shot at a middle-ground NC than pretend that I have any shot at the real one. I feel like the G5 programs are in purgatory. Sure, they'd like to get into heaven, but those gates are locked.
Almost assuredly.
You’d rather get crushed as a 16 seedy than win the NIT.
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Almost assuredly.
You’d rather get crushed as a 16 seedy than win the NIT.
FCS schools are still D1. I get it for large schools who are not FCS powers, but does Appalachian State make more money off whatever the Sun belts TV deal is, and New Orleans bowl bid, than being an FCS power? I legitimately don't know
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FCS schools are still D1. I get it for large schools who are not FCS powers, but does Appalachian State make more money off whatever the Sun belts TV deal is, and New Orleans bowl bid, than being an FCS power? I legitimately don't know
I think they make more but also spend more?
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When a program moves up from FCS, it's for the potential for more money, on a long-enough timeline. But along with that move up comes more money put into the program and an emphasis on it. Needing to get those 15,000+ butts in seats, etc.
Why not remain in FCS and funnel attention and money into your football program and be the big fish in the small pond? Win championships! Don't acquire a glass ceiling over yourself.
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When a program moves up from FCS, it's for the potential for more money, on a long-enough timeline. But along with that move up comes more money put into the program and an emphasis on it. Needing to get those 15,000+ butts in seats, etc.
Why not remain in FCS and funnel attention and money into your football program and be the big fish in the small pond? Win championships! Don't acquire a glass ceiling over yourself.
I think there are non-football reasons.
It would certainly be more fun for football fans of YSU to root for the FCSNC YSU team, but I would guess that most casual fans don't know or care who the FCSNC is. OTOH, if you play a game against a major school, people see your name. Does that increase applications? Increased applications lead to greater selectivity, higher academic rankings, and higher tuition. I would guess that is a motivator here.
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When a program moves up from FCS, it's for the potential for more money, on a long-enough timeline. But along with that move up comes more money put into the program and an emphasis on it. Needing to get those 15,000+ butts in seats, etc.
Why not remain in FCS and funnel attention and money into your football program and be the big fish in the small pond? Win championships! Don't acquire a glass ceiling over yourself.
I'm not sure, the numbers can be opaque and difficult to parse, but for a lot of FCS programs I think they can get more guaranteed money by joining a FBS conference pretty much no matter what.
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There have been 36 tournaments since expansion in 1985. Only two have been won by teams from outside the major conferences and one of those is now in a major conference:
- Louisville won it all in 1986 as a member of the Metro Conference. They are now in the ACC.
- UNLV won it all in 1990 as a member of the Big West Conference. They are now in the MWC.
It has been more than 30 years since a team from outside the major conferences won it all.
Championships by CURRENT league of the winner:
- 13, ACC
- 7, B-East
- 6, SEC
- 4, B1G
- 3, B12
- 2, P12
- 1, MWC.
Championships by team:
- 5, Duke
- 4, UNC, UCONN
- 3, Villanova, Kentucky
- 2, Kansas, Louisville, Florida
- 1, Zona, Arkansas, Baylor, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Syracuse, UCLA, UNLV, Virginia.
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There have been 36 tournaments since expansion in 1985. Only two have been won by teams from outside the major conferences and one of those is now in a major conference:
- Louisville won it all in 1986 as a member of the Metro Conference. They are now in the ACC.
- UNLV won it all in 1990 as a member of the Big West Conference. They are now in the MWC.
It has been more than 30 years since a team from outside the major conferences won it all.
Championships by CURRENT league of the winner:
- 13, ACC
- 7, B-East
- 6, SEC
- 4, B1G
- 3, B12
- 2, P12
- 1, MWC.
Championships by team:
- 5, Duke
- 4, UNC, UCONN
- 3, Villanova, Kentucky
- 2, Kansas, Louisville, Florida
- 1, Zona, Arkansas, Baylor, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Syracuse, UCLA, UNLV, Virginia.
I don't know that we would still consider the Big East a major conference in this context.
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I don't know that we would still consider the Big East a major conference in this context.
They are in CBB. They are typically ranked among the top conferences and two of their teams have won a combined three of the last seven tournaments.
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They are in CBB. They are typically ranked among the top conferences and two of their teams have won a combined three of the last seven tournaments.
Well, yes, they are a good basketball conference. But does being good equate to being major? The AAC has been "better" than the ACC at times in football, but they aren't a major conference. Given the economics of college sports, I don't know that I would consider a group of good basketball programs a major conference. If Gonzaga wins a couple titles in the next few years, does that mean their conference is major?
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I consider the BE as a major in basketball.
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Well, yes, they are a good basketball conference. But does being good equate to being major? The AAC has been "better" than the ACC at times in football, but they aren't a major conference. Given the economics of college sports, I don't know that I would consider a group of good basketball programs a major conference. If Gonzaga wins a couple titles in the next few years, does that mean their conference is major?
For your Gonzaga hypothetical, no. Note above that I referenced BOTH Championships and conference ranking. IMHO, conference ranking is more important. The B1G hasn't won a title in more than 20 years but is indisputably "Major" because they are consistently ranked as one of the top conferences.
Gonzaga is a great program individually but that alone does not make for a major conference.
On the AAC football example, there are two loosely related differences:
First, in CFB the P5 control the CFP so if you aren't part of that then you aren't major.
Second is consistency. Being better than one of the five once in a while is great, but unless you can maintain it for many years, you can't overtake them.
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There have been 36 tournaments since expansion in 1985. Only two have been won by teams from outside the major conferences and one of those is now in a major conference:
- Louisville won it all in 1986 as a member of the Metro Conference. They are now in the ACC.
- UNLV won it all in 1990 as a member of the Big West Conference. They are now in the MWC.
It has been more than 30 years since a team from outside the major conferences won it all.
Championships by CURRENT league of the winner:
- 13, ACC
- 7, B-East
- 6, SEC
- 4, B1G
- 3, B12
- 2, P12
- 1, MWC.
Championships by team:
- 5, Duke
- 4, UNC, UCONN
- 3, Villanova, Kentucky
- 2, Kansas, Louisville, Florida
- 1, Zona, Arkansas, Baylor, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Syracuse, UCLA, UNLV, Virginia.
Well damn, the big, fat lie isn't only in football, but in basketball, too. Except that in basketball, the bait is much sweeter and thus, more misleading.
I did not know that.
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For your Gonzaga hypothetical, no. Note above that I referenced BOTH Championships and conference ranking. IMHO, conference ranking is more important. The B1G hasn't won a title in more than 20 years but is indisputably "Major" because they are consistently ranked as one of the top conferences.
Gonzaga is a great program individually but that alone does not make for a major conference.
On the AAC football example, there are two loosely related differences:
First, in CFB the P5 control the CFP so if you aren't part of that then you aren't major.
Second is consistency. Being better than one of the five once in a while is great, but unless you can maintain it for many years, you can't overtake them.
Either way, I believe UConn was in the AAC when they won their last championship
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Well damn, the big, fat lie isn't only in football, but in basketball, too. Except that in basketball, the bait is much sweeter and thus, more misleading.
I did not know that.
The lie is ... that if you compete on the field of play, you might not win?
The flexibility of this complaint is still odd.
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The lie is pretending that the have-nots have a chance. They do, but only by definition. The results have shown a natural separation, and that's the important part. Everyone covering their eyes, pretending there isn't a natural separation.
There are separations in each conference. And there's a national separation.
All I'm advocating for is to recognize it exists and to set up the system that way. If San Jose State, Memphis, and Buffalo aren't on equal footing with Ohio St, USC, and Texas, then stop pretending they are by having them in the same system.
If SJST, Memphis, and Buffalo were on actual equal footing, THEN I wouldn't make sense. And from the basketball results over 30 years, it looks like they should do the same there....that a ticket to the dance isn't worth very much at all. It's just that the hopeful keep pretending there's hope, when actually there is none.
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The lie is pretending that the have-nots have a chance. They do, but only by definition. The results have shown a natural separation, and that's the important part. Everyone covering their eyes, pretending there isn't a natural separation.
Of the final four participants, three had never won a national championship before and the fourth was an 11 seed with a long and glorious basketball history. It is utter baloney to say the "have-nots" don't have a chance.
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The lie is pretending that the have-nots have a chance. They do, but only by definition. The results have shown a natural separation, and that's the important part. Everyone covering their eyes, pretending there isn't a natural separation.
There are separations in each conference. And there's a national separation.
All I'm advocating for is to recognize it exists and to set up the system that way. If San Jose State, Memphis, and Buffalo aren't on equal footing with Ohio St, USC, and Texas, then stop pretending they are by having them in the same system.
If SJST, Memphis, and Buffalo were on actual equal footing, THEN I wouldn't make sense. And from the basketball results over 30 years, it looks like they should do the same there....that a ticket to the dance isn't worth very much at all. It's just that the hopeful keep pretending there's hope, when actually there is none.
The argument seems to be, if you have not won the whole shebang, then you should not be a part of the proceeding. It's odd, because if such a team does win, you'd be telling us how it's a case of a team like those 9-7 New York Giants, just hot at the right time.
This is college sports. It's unbalanced by nature. I guess you could split it up into two, three or four different titles, but why would you? I don't think anyone is pretending one half isn't better than the other, they just don't care. And the weirdest part is the only ones who seem to really care are the ones that seem so frightfully offended to just put those small schools into an arena where the natural separation would take its course. If the big teams don't need to be protected from the small teams, why in the hell does it matter?
If 36 years of winning is all we need to upend a system, why stop at this level? Every conference has imbalance. Three SEC teams have never won a conference title, throw em out. Shoot, UF didn’t win one for its 52 years in the SEC, and needed seven more years to win one without cheating. Vandy is never gonna win the SEC, and if you tried to throw them out, they’d pitch a damn fit.
I mean, “a ticket to the dance isn't worth very much at all”? That’s ridiculous. Go to any of the athletes at your school and ask if it’s worth something to go to state, even if they’re gonna get wiped. It’s pretty obvious what the answer is.
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Their feelings and the reality of the situation are two very different things.
And yes, I suppose I would support a evolving conference or top tier of programs. No, Vanderbilt has no business playing football in the SEC. They're a charter member (1933) and have won nothing. They're spending $300 million on sports upgrades to continue winning nothing.
No, it's not some great travesty. It's not a big deal at all. But I don't see the EVIL in it, as you may. Why not have an ever-shrinking top level? I don't see the problem with exploring that.
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Their feelings and the reality of the situation are two very different things.
And yes, I suppose I would support a evolving conference or top tier of programs. No, Vanderbilt has no business playing football in the SEC. They're a charter member (1933) and have won nothing. They're spending $300 million on sports upgrades to continue winning nothing.
No, it's not some great travesty. It's not a big deal at all. But I don't see the EVIL in it, as you may. Why not have an ever-shrinking top level? I don't see the problem with exploring that.
College football appears to have that right now. Even the haves are mostly left out of the conversation, and this season the same handful of programs will likely be in the postseason again. As a fan of one these teams, I suppose that is nice, but it doesn't feel very healthy for the sport.
On a side note we might, possibly, get a little variety with the extra COVID season perhaps benefiting the have not teams.
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Idk, we have 2 dominant programs that are fluid in their ways.
Anytime I think "yawn, boring dominance by the kings" I think of the 70s. I believe the top 10 teams in the 70s are the top 10 programs, all-time (or not far off). Anyway, did Bo or Woody ever really deviate from their modus operandi? I don't believe so. Bear Bryant reluctantly fell in line and ran the wishbone, didn't he? Not a big departure from 3-yards and a cloud of dust + dominant defense.
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But now, we have Saban tossing out his entire offensive system for something that will put up points. That passes a lot. That scores quickly. And he's remained on top while doing so. THAT is the amazing part to me.
But a game here or there, and things could be very different. Clemson's had close calls. Honestly, the world should be thankful Auburn has been as tough vs the Tide as they have, otherwise Alabama would have colonized Mars by now, so to speak.
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We have FBS, FCS, Div II, Div III....is NAIA still around? I don't see the absurdity of having another level between FBS and FCS.
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NAIA is still around
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Idk, we have 2 dominant programs that are fluid in their ways.
Anytime I think "yawn, boring dominance by the kings" I think of the 70s. I believe the top 10 teams in the 70s are the top 10 programs, all-time (or not far off).
Not far off, top 10 by winning percentage from 1970-1979:
- .877 Oklahoma
- .863 Bama
- .848 Michigan
- .820 Nebraska
- .814 Penn State
- .811 Ohio State
- .805 Notre Dame
- .803 USC
- .770 Texas
- .763 Arizona State
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NAIA is still around
My hometown team just won the NAIA national championship. Then their star player declared for the draft. Which, well...
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But now, we have Saban tossing out his entire offensive system for something that will put up points. That passes a lot. That scores quickly. And he's remained on top while doing so. THAT is the amazing part to me.
Amazing what you can do when your backups are better than the other team's starters...
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We have FBS, FCS, Div II, Div III....is NAIA still around? I don't see the absurdity of having another level between FBS and FCS.
The National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics (NAIA) announced that two-time defending national and 10-time defending Great Plains Athletic Conference champion Morningside College will host a first-round playoff game on Saturday, April 17.
The game between the Mustangs (8-0) and Carroll College of Montana (3-1) will be held at Bishop Heelan Memorial Stadium due to the Sioux City Relays occurring at Elwood Olsen Stadium. Kickoff is 1 p.m. and gates will open at 12 p.m.
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We have FBS, FCS, Div II, Div III....is NAIA still around? I don't see the absurdity of having another level between FBS and FCS.
The problem is that just creates a new bottom. We split into 1A and 1AA for that reason. So is it absurd? No. Does it just lead to us asking why Vandy, BC, Oregon State, Kansas, etc... are still playing with the helmets in a few years? Probably
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We have FBS, FCS, Div II, Div III....is NAIA still around? I don't see the absurdity of having another level between FBS and FCS.
I don’t think anyone is saying it’s an absurd idea. It just address is a problem that is so fine and narrow but not that many people see it as a problem.
Maybe we could just cut it off at the small top group they can actually contend for a national title. Say, the top 25 or 30 teams. Some kind of national league for football.
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I don’t think anyone is saying it’s an absurd idea. It just address is a problem that is so fine and narrow but not that many people see it as a problem.
Maybe we could just cut it off at the small top group they can actually contend for a national title. Say, the top 3 or 4 teams. Some kind of national league for football.
FIFY
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FIFY
We’ll make it like the Cincinnati Catholic league in HS football.