CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 08, 2017, 05:55:17 PM
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I covered the B1G-E here (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=1303.0) and I covered the B1G-W here (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=1305.0). Now for the rest of the P5:
ACC-Atlantic:
Clemson leads at 6-1 with only one game to play (because they have two OOC games down the stretch). They are tied in the loss column with NCST and they beat NCST H2H. If they win their last ACC game (vFSU, this weekend) they win the ACC-Atlantic. If Clemson loses to FSU then NCST can win the ACC-Atlantic by winning out (@BC, @Wake, vUNC).
All other ACC-Atlantic teams are eliminated.
ACC-Coastal:
Miami has all but clinched. The Hurricanes are 6-0 and their closest competitors are the two Virginia Schools at 3-2. Virginia Tech cannot get to the ACCCG because they already have a H2H loss to the Hurricanes. Thus, the only way for Miami to miss the ACCCG is if they lose their last two ACC games (vUVA, @Pitt) and for Virginia to win their last three (@Lou, @Miami, vVaTech). One more Miami win or Virginia loss clinches it for the Hurricanes.
B12:
I think there might be a theoretical possibility of a 3-loss team sneaking into the B12CG but I highly doubt it so I will confine my analysis to the five teams with two or less conference losses:
- 5-1 Oklahoma vsTCU this weekend
- 5-1 TCU @OU this weekend
- 4-2 OkSU @ISU this weekend
- 4-2 ISU vOkSU this weekend
- 4-2 WVU @KSU this weekend
As I see it, OkSU, ISU, and WVU face elimination every weekend. The Oklahoma/TCU winner takes firm control especially if ISU (which beat them both) loses to OkSU.
P12-N:
5-1 Washington travels to 5-2 Stanford this weekend. A Huskies' win would eliminate Stanford.
5-2 WSU travels to Utah this weekend then has a week off before the Apple Cup.
5-2 Stanford has to beat Washington this weekend to stay in the race. They'll still need help due to a H2H loss to WSU.
Oregon, California, and OrSU are already eliminated.
P12-S:
6-1 USC has all but clinched because they have wins over the two Arizona schools which are both 4-2. Utah, UCLA, and Colorado are all eliminated. One more USC win or one more loss by each of the Wildcats and Sundevils clinches the P12CG for the Trojans.
SEC-E:
Georgia became the first P5 school to officially mathematically clinch their spot in their CG last weekend when their win and Kentucky's loss wrapped up the SEC-E.
SEC-W:
Alabama can clinch this weekend with at win (@MissSt) and an Auburn loss (vUGA). A Bama win eliminates MissSt no matter what happens in the Auburn/UGA game.
LSU, aTm, Ole Miss, and Ark are already eliminated. (We covered LSU at length last week. LSU is eliminated because the best they can do is a 6-2 tie with Bama and Auburn. Auburn would win that based on divisional record. MissSt could theoretically also be in that tie but that does not help LSU because they lost to MissSt.
MissSt is in the race. If they win out to finish 6-2 they will win the division as long as Auburn loses twice and with UGA and Bama still on Auburn's schedule that is certainly possible.
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The ACC should be booted from the P5, on account that they don't have a team called The Wildcats.
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Nice summary, thanks.
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Most likely CGs?
USC-Washington
TCU-OU
Miami - Clemson
Georgia - Bama/Auburn/Troy! Some Alabama based team...
Wisconsin - MSU/OSU
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I agree most likely, but a ton of football to be played
fun to speculate
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You da man, Medina. Thanks much.
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The "most likely CGs" look mostly like what was expected preseason, do they not?
Maybe FSU was somewhere in that. Some thought Oklahoma State would make a run, and they did. The SEC was thought to be UGA-Bama with Auburn making a run. Ohio State was the fav up here and Wisconsin was probably on the other side preseason.
CFB is predictable.
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I don't think anyone expected MSU or Miami to be anywhere near their CGs.
TCU was underrated in the preseason, but that tends to be the case in spite of all of their recent and consistent success. So that's one isn't all that alarming.
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More on the B12 race:
The B12 race is the most wide-open for two reasons. First, they have no divisions so it is just the best two. Second, There are five teams with one or two losses and another two teams still mathematically eligible with three losses.
Standings and (for the mathematically eligible teams which others they beat/lost to, and have yet to play):
- 5-1 Oklahoma: Beat UT, KSU, OkSU. Lost to ISU. vTCU and vWVU remaining.
- 5-1 TCU: Beat OkSU, WVU, KSU, UT. Lost to ISU. @OU remaining.
- 4-2 OkSU: Beat UT, WVU. Lost to TCU, OU. @ISU, vKSU remaining.
- 4-2 ISU: Beat OU, TCU. Lost to UT, WVU. vOkSU, @KSU remaining.
- 4-2 WVU: Beat ISU. Lost to TCU, OkSU. @KSU, vUT, @OU remaining.
- 3-3 Texas: Beat ISU, KSU. Lost to OU, OkSU, TCU. @WVU remaining.
- 3-3 KSU: Beat NOBODY. Lost to UT, TCU, OU. vWVU, @OkSU, vISU remaining.
- 1-5 TTech
- 1-5 Baylor
- 0-6 Kansas
TexasTech and Baylor have defeated only Kansas. They play each other this weekend. All three (TTech, Baylor, KU) are mathematically eliminated.
The Oklahoma/TCU game this weekend is probably a preview of the B12CG because those two teams have the best records and the easiest remaining schedules.
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Miami started the preseason at 18 in the AP, Louisville was at 16 and Clemson and FSU were in the top ten. So in their division Miami was the top ranked team unless I missed somebody. VaTech was 21.
Michigan State was well off the list.
MSU is the only real surprise in the apparent/possible CG list. They obviously had a bad year last season.
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Miami started the preseason at 18 in the AP, Louisville was at 16 and Clemson and FSU were in the top ten. So in their division Miami was the top ranked team unless I missed somebody. VaTech was 21.
Michigan State was well off the list.
MSU is the only real surprise in the apparent/possible CG list. They obviously had a bad year last season.
Yeah, but they always start the year ranked and generally they don't live up to it.
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They did not start ranked in 2016 or 2015, and the point is, they were reasonably expected to win their division this year. I read quite a bit about it because Richt is there and it peaked my interest.
For the most part the teams expected to win look as if they are going to win this year, which likely is unusual to this degree.
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Or 2014. Or 2013.
I'm not going back further.
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I guess we can split hairs but that was not my point. Because they almost always are historically. Sometimes it's deserved and sometimes it's the helmet. Their 376 fans will remind you of it when they are.
They were ranked in week 2 last year. I doubt they achieved any rankings in the few years prior because they sucked. But, like many other helmet schools, the voters are always anxious to rank them.
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There are certain schools that get top shelf recruits while others fight over the table scraps, and the pre season rankings reflect this.
The table scraps often play with a chip on their shoulder though, in an effort to prove that they're not table scraps.
The top shelf recruits, conversely, are only thinking about the NFL for the most part.
So often times the teams full of table scraps will beat the teams full of top shelf recruits.
That's one of the many dynamics that make it all so wildly entertaining.
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What is the Mac's "most likely CG"?
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"Champions of Life Bowl".
I like it.
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What is the Mac's "most likely CG"?
ex-Husker Fearless Frankie vs Riley Husker slayer Northern Illinois?
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Q) How do you keep Michigan fans from attending your sporting event?
A) Hold it in Indianapolis.
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So, the Pac 12 is almost officially out of the Playoff this season. That clarifies a slot of course, and a Miami win over ND (which I don't expect) would open another. Of course, opening four slots looks comfortable at the moment, but there is a lot of potential for more 2 loss conference champs to happen.
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Remaining playoff contenders barring a two loss malestrom, which would be entertaining:
UGA Alabama
Miami Clemson
Oklahoma TCU (play today of course)
Wisconsin
Notre Dame
The field is narrowing, as is expected. UGA would remain viable with a loss today, as would Miami and Wisconsin and Alabama. The rest would go to 2 losses with a loss, unless I erred.
We could have a two loss team in the top four this year.
Most likely two loss team? Maybe Oklahoma. Michigan State? Most likely CG loser to make it? SEC or ACC?
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Most likely CCG loser would be a 1 loss Bama, but they have some injury issues right now and could lose before the CCG.
I think Georgia is going to lose today.
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hey, if we have a couple 2 loss teams in the final four, the committee will have to make some choices and hopefully give huge credit to SoS
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UGA is in a "pick'em" game today where variables like turnovers may decide the outcome.
Punting could get important.
If Iowa State beats OkSU today, they may make the B12 CG.
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Yep, safe to say Washington's loss killed the Pac-12's playoff hopes. As for the conference title race itself, there is now a 3 way tie between UW, WSU, Stanford. If WSU wins out they're in the CCG. UW needs to win out AND a Stanford loss to Cal to make the CCG. Stanford needs to beat Cal AND another WSU loss to make it.
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Too bad the Rose Bowl is a playoff game this year, as both the Big Ten and Pac 12 champ are not making the playoffs.
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I don't know why Wisconsin can't make it. Maybe they don't, but they could.
I also am seeing a better chance of a two loss team sneaking into the mix now.
All of us here are wary about putting too much emphasis on one outcome. Ohio State goes from the Iowa game to the MSU game in one week. It happens. Could they make the playoff still? Two percent chance?
Oklahoma still looks good, and they have the QB to make a run. Clemson looks solid, also with a good QB. Alabama is solid but perhaps not the granite rock they had appeared to be. Wisconsin keeps winning.
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Yeah now that Notre Dame and the Pac 12 are likely out, and now that Georgia is likely to be a 2-loss team without a Conference Title, the Big Ten Champion could maybe sneak into the mix.
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A 13-0 P5 conference champion will ALWAYS be selected, every time, unless all four others are also 13-0.
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Q) How do you keep Michigan fans from attending your sporting event?
A) Hold it in Indianapolis.
Oh ST isn't exactly money away from the 'Shoe.Or in it for that matter
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The Buckeyes s/b ranked ahead of ND and Miami s/b ranked above Clemson, otherwise I agree with the latest playoff ranking.
The Buckeyes need the following to happen to take the #4 position by the end, and make the playoff:
1) Buckeyes must win out impressively - no signs of significant weakness.
2) Alabama, Miami and Oklahoma win out.
3) Wisconsin must beat Michigan this weekend.
That should do it, the Buckeyes will earn the 4th spot.
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The Buckeyes s/b ranked ahead of ND and Miami s/b ranked above Clemson, otherwise I agree with the latest playoff ranking.
The Buckeyes need the following to happen to take the #4 position by the end, and make the playoff:
1) Buckeyes must win out impressively - no signs of significant weakness.
2) Alabama, Miami and Oklahoma win out.
3) Wisconsin must beat Michigan this weekend.
That should do it, the Buckeyes will earn the 4th spot.
Realistically, I think you are right. I think if those things happen Ohio St is probably in. But, I'll say this. If that were to happen, depending on how other games shake out, I think that an 11-2 Clemson team would have a pretty compelling argument over an 11-2 Ohio St team.
There's a good chance that Clemson could end the year with more wins over ranked teams and more wins over teams with winning records.
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Realistically, I think you are right. I think if those things happen Ohio St is probably in. But, I'll say this. If that were to happen, depending on how other games shake out, I think that an 11-2 Clemson team would have a pretty compelling argument over an 11-2 Ohio St team.
There's a good chance that Clemson could end the year with more wins over ranked teams and more wins over teams with winning records.
You could be right, but they would both have 2 losses and Ohio State would be a conference champion, Clemson would be a non-champion. Additionally, no team has ever lost past the 3rd playoff ranking (last night) and then made the playoff. I don’t see the ACC getting two teams, unless Clemson wins the Championship, and they have two 1 loss teams. Still a lot of football to be played, Ohio State could eliminate themselves just by struggling against Illinois this weekend (Illinois has a better record vs the Buckeyes than most B1G teams). Focus is required for the rest of their games, like the 2nd half of the Penn State game - no room for error.
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Realistically, I think you are right. I think if those things happen Ohio St is probably in. But, I'll say this. If that were to happen, depending on how other games shake out, I think that an 11-2 Clemson team would have a pretty compelling argument over an 11-2 Ohio St team.
There's a good chance that Clemson could end the year with more wins over ranked teams and more wins over teams with winning records.
I think that a 2-loss non-Champion could hypothetically beat out a 2-loss Champion but I do not think it would happen in this scenario. In this scenario Clemson would have wins over:
- Auburn: Currently #6 but in this scenario they lose to Bama to finish 9-3 and probably ranked around #12ish.
- NCST: Currently #19 and should win their last two (@Wake, vUNC) to finish 9-3 and probably ranked around #15ish.
- VaTech: Currently unranked but should win their last two (vPitt, @UVA) to finish 9-3 and probably ranked around #20ish.
- USCe: Currently unranked and with a loss to Clemson would finish 8-4 and probably unranked.
I do not see any other teams on Clemson's schedule with a realistic potential to finish ranked except #3 Miami but in this scenario Clemson would lose to Miami. Clemson's other loss is to a Syracuse team that is currently 4-6.
Ohio State's losses are to:
- Oklahoma: Currently #4 and would move up to at least #3 in this scenario.
- Iowa: Currently unranked but should win their last two (vPU, @UNL) to finish 8-4 and possibly ranked.
Ohio State would have wins over:
- Penn State: Currently #10 but should win their last two (vUNL, @UMD) to finish 10-2 and top-10.
- Michigan State: Currently #17 but should win their lat two (vUMD, @RU) to finish 9-3 and probably ranked around #15ish.
- Michigan: Currently #24 and in this scenario they lose at least one more (vtOSU) so probably finish unranked.
- Wisconsin: Currently #5 but in this scenario they lose at least one more (vtOSU, B1GCG) and probably finish barely top-10.
You can certainly argue that Clemson has a tougher schedule but I think that would be debatable and not anywhere near a large enough gap to make up for not being a Conference Champion.
I think Clemson, as a 2-loss non-Champion would have a much better argument against a hypothetical 11-2 B1G Champion Wisconsin.
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I think Clemson, as a 2-loss non-Champion would have a much better argument against a hypothetical 11-2 B1G Champion Wisconsin.
To flesh out this example, suppose:
- Bama wins out, gets an obvious CFP spot as 13-0 SEC Champion
- Clemson wins their last two regular season games (vCitadel, @USCe) but loses to
- Miami wins out, gets an obvious CFP spot as 13-0 ACC Champion
- Oklahoma wins out, gets an obvious CFP spot as 12-1 B12 Champion
- Michigan suddenly gets hot, wins their last two (@UW, vtOSU)
- Wisconsin loses their other remaining regular season game (@MN)
- Ohio State gets into the B1GCG anyway based on a multi-team tiebreaker with Michigan and either PSU or MSU or both
- Wisconsin beats Ohio State in Indianapolis to finish 11-2 and B1G Champion
- Everybody else (ie ND and the P12) basically falls out of the running to leave that last playoff spot between 11-2 non-Champion Clemson and 11-2 B1G Champion Wisconsin
Wisconsin would have MAYBE two wins over ranked teams:
- Ohio State: Currently #9 but in this scenario loses twice more to finish 9-4 and likely around #20ish.
- Iowa: Currently unranked but should win their last two (vPU, @UNL) to finish 8-4 and probably ranked.
Wisconsin's losses would be to:
- Michigan: Currently #24 but in this scenario wins out to finish 10-2 and probably ranked around #12ish.
- Minnesota: Currently 5-5 so not a "good" loss no matter what MN does in their other game (@NU).
I'm still not sure that the committee would view SoS as being enough to override a conference Championship.