CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on November 08, 2017, 03:12:32 PM
-
Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-3, 4-5) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-5, 4-5)
NOON - Minneapolis, MN - FS1
Nebraska is playing better, gutting out a much needed win two weeks ago in West Lafayette, but unable to do so last weekend against Northwestern, falling in overtime. The Gophers appear to be going in the opposite direction, thanks to a complete lack of offense. The gophers put together three touchdown drives in the fourth quarter against Michigan State a month ago. Aside from that, since halftime of the loss at Purdue, Minnesota has scored four offensive touchdowns (two against Illinois, one each against Iowa and Michigan) over 17 quarters against Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa and Michigan. It will be interesting to see if the Huskers' 3rd ranked passing offense tries, and if so, is successful against the Gophers 2nd ranked passing defense; or if they try to rely on their 13th ranked run offense to exploit Minnesota's 12th ranked run defense, fresh off allowing TWO different Michigan backs to put up over 190 yards each on the ground. The fortunate thing for Minnesota is that they return to the New Brick House, where they have averaged 25 ppg in Big Ten play, as opposed to 12.3 ppg on the road. Nebraska might be happy to get back out on the road though, currently on a 3 game home losing streak, and 4 out of 5, back to Northern Illinois. Based on some quick research it seems like the last time the Huskers had a 3 game losing streak in Lincoln was a four game streak including the final 3 games of 1968 against Kansas, Missouri and Kansas State, and the opener against USC in 1969. That 1968 season convinced Bob Devaney to promote offensive assistant Tom Osborne to offensive coordinator for 1969. I think it's a safe bet to assume 2017 will lead to some coaching overhauls too. The bright side for Husker fans? Only two years after the 1968 season that led to those changes, the Huskers won their first national title in 1970.
MINNESOTA 24, NEBRASKA 23
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-3, 4-5) at #14 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-2, 7-2)
NOON - State College, PA - BTN
Just over a week later, the outlook looks very different for the Nittany Lions. Penn State followed up a blown 4th quarter in Columbus, with a loss in East Lansing that all but killed any shot they had at a second consecutive Big Ten title, and a first ever trip to the College Football Playoff. That three game gauntlet now behind them, perhaps no team in the conference as an easy a three game finish as Penn State, with Rutgers, Nebraska and Maryland. Penn State had been stout against the run all year, and the issues they had in the secondary had been masked by their ability to cause turnovers...until the last two weeks. J.T. Barrett and Brian Lewerke combined to go 66-95 for 728 yards and 6 touchdowns with only one pick. That issue may rear it's head again next week against Tanner Lee, but won't be much of a concern against a Rutgers team averaging a Big Ten low 5.1 passing ypa on a Big Ten low 20 attempts per game. The Scarlet Knights have won 3 out of 4, but have done so by winning a defensive struggle, and running the ball against two of the conference's worst run defenses. Saquon Barkley's Heisman candidacy is likely on life support, but he's one monster game away from staying in what appears to be a wide open field behind Baker Mayfield right now. Rutgers' defense is just the defense to give him that game, last in the Big Ten defensively both in rushing ypc allowed and ypg allowed, at 5.5 ypc and 223 ypg. Rutgers is playing better. They can play with, and beat when things break right, the other teams at the bottom of the conference, but as losses to Michigan and Ohio State by a combined 91-14 show, they still don't have enough, particularly in the trenches, to hold up against the Big Ten's top teams.
PENN STATE 40, RUTGERS 10
Indiana Hoosiers (0-6, 3-6) at Illinois Fighting Illini (0-6, 2-7)
NOON - Champaign, IL - BTN
I remember a time when I was in college where these were the conference's true basement, and their matchup aligned with Michigan State's bye week, so my roommates and I pulled out my old IU gear from freshman year and went all in on that ultimate Big Ten pillow fight. Over a decade later, it appears we are right back there. Illinois fans hoping that Lovie Smith could light a fire as an NFL coach like a Carroll or a Harbaugh have to be disappointed, as they've now guaranteed their sixth straight losing season, their first such streak since 1975-1980, which also spanned three coaches (Bob Blackman, Gary Moeller and Mike White). Indiana has played a monster of a schedule, but as their loss two weeks ago to a limping Maryland team proved, they have issues. Their defense had been holding up a young offense, but that too has collapsed in the last few weeks. It sounds like Peyton Ramsey, who was knocked out of the Maryland game, and didn't play against Wisconsin, might be available, but Richard Lagow was named the starter again. It's unclear how much of that is injury related, and how much is performance. As bad as the past month (plus) has been, the season is far from over at 3-6, considering how front loaded the schedule is, with Illinois, Rutgers and Purdue to finish. A three game winning streak to get back into a bowl is far from a stretch. Cam Thomas took a big step forward at quarterback for Illinois against Purdue, and if he continues to progress, he does give the program hope going forward. Lovie Smith is certainly not coaching like a guy coaching for his job now, having already given 16 different TRUE freshman starting experience this year. It's hard to say the future is bright, without a corresponding uptick in recruiting, particularly in state. Illinois' incoming 2018 class is currently ranked last in the conference, and their highest rated in state recruit is 27th in the state. 14 IN STATE kids ranked ahead of him are committed to Big Ten programs, and it's not like the helmet schools are coming in and raiding talent, it's 5 to Northwestern, 3 to Iowa, 2 each to Minnesota and Indiana, and then 1 each to Wisconsin and Penn State. Kind of shows you just where the program rates in the eyes of local kids right now.
INDIANA 28, ILLINOIS 21
#20 Iowa Hawkeyes (3-3, 6-3) at #8 Wisconsin Badgers (6-0, 9-0)
3:30 - Madison, WI - ABC
The week before what was supposed to be Wisconsin's stiffest test prior to Indianapolis, comes...perhaps Wisconsin's stiffest test prior to Indianapolis. The Hawkeyes are being viewed in a whole different light after mopping the floor with Ohio State a week ago. While Iowa is 6-3, all 3 losses have come to ranked teams, two on the road, and in overtime (Northwestern), on the last play of the game (Penn State), and by 7 (Michigan State). What remains to be seen though is if Iowa can take that Kinnick magic on the road with them. Getting big wins in Iowa City has never been the obstacle, it's getting them on the road. Two years ago the Hawkeyes came into Camp Randall and beat #19 Wisconsin to take the Heartland Trophy, and begin to get attention in a season that saw them reach the Big Ten title game, and as high as #3 in the national polls. Aside from Jack Cichy in the preseason, Wisconsin hasn't suffered the type of marquee injury that changes perceptions, but seemingly each week a new guy or two gets added, to the point now that the list is the most unfriendly in the conference, and now they've added perhaps the biggest name since Cichy to that list in WR Quintez Cephus, the team's leading receiver, and 7th in the Big Ten in receiving yardage. Only Rutgers passes at a lower frequency than Wisconsin, so it's not like losing Jonathan Taylor, but he's the one guy that could consistently stretch the field with Jazz Peavy already out. A.J. Taylor stepped up already in Cephus' absence late against Indiana last week, with 3 catches for a career high 63 yards, and even got a carry. But going from Cephus to Taylor costs them about 3 inches, with the 5'10" Taylor. As for the other Taylor, Jonathan, he has gone from making the Silver Football race interesting, to probably being the leader, after Barkley has disappeared from Penn State's offense, and Barrett had himself a massive clunker last weekend. He's leading the conference in rushing by about 40 ypg over Karan Higdon. To have any shot Iowa needs the Nathan Stanley from last week to return. The overall numbers for Wisconsin's pass defense look ok, at 191.3 ypg allowed, actually leading the conference at 5.6 ypa allowed. Take a closer look at opposition though. Against Clayton Thorson, Tanner Lee and Richard Lagow, the Badgers are surrendering 235.6 ypg; while Elijah Sindelar, Max Bortenschlager and Jeff George Jr. combined to average 129.3 ypg. I think Nathan Stanley certainly belongs more in that first group. The trouble is, he hasn't performed there week in and week out.
WISCONSIN 28, IOWA 16
Michigan Wolverines (4-2, 7-2) at Maryland Terrapins (2-4, 4-5)
3:30 - College Park, MD - BTN
D.J. Durkin had a rough go of it last year against his former boss, falling in Ann Arbor 59-3. I'm obviously not expecting a repeat of that, but it's tough to see a path to victory for Maryland. Granted the full year yo-yo for the banged up Terps continues, as a week after they salvaged some bowl hopes with an upset win over Indiana, they turned around and fell to Rutgers. You'd like to see Michigan open it up a bit, after relying almost exclusively on the run game during Peters' first game and a half as the quarterback. Michigan can probably win with that formula again, but you'd have to think that over the final two weeks they need to be much more diverse. There's probably no secondary better to get some confidence against than Maryland and their 261.2 ypg allowed, to go with conference worst 7.3 ypa and 13 passing touchdowns allowed. Maryland may have figured something out under center with Ryan Brand, the dual threat Air Force transfer who played his high school ball in Detroit, but didn't get a sniff from the Wolverines. He was 8-12 passing against Rutgers, and didn't get a chance to show what he can do with his legs. He might be a more natural fit for an offense that was designed for either Tyrrell Pigrome or Kasim Hill to be under center. This offense simply never looked comfortable without them, even when Bortenschlager played well. This should be a good test for the Michigan defense, which last time they played an offense with a pulse, was getting dissected by Trace McSorley and Saquan Barkley. The Terps offense isn't great, 12th in the Big Ten in total offense, but Michigan has otherwise only faced the 7th, 8th, 9th, 13th and 14th ranked offenses in the conference. And what Maryland has, that those other struggling offenses don't is pretty good weapons at all skill positions. Ty Johnson and D.J. Moore are far better than anything Purdue, Rutgers or Minnesota will throw at you. The key to stopping Michigan is to get them behind the sticks, where they've struggled badly all year on 3rd down, but Maryland doesn't have the front to do that. If Michigan can stay ahead of the chains, it should be another grind out victory. It will be interesting to see how Harbaugh balances the sure thing, with knowing he needs to prepare to do more the next two weeks.
MICHIGAN 33, MARYLAND 20
Purdue Boilermakers (2-4, 4-5) at #25 Northwestern Wildcats (4-2, 6-3)
7:00 - Evanston, IL - espn2
Footballs have funny shapes and take funny bounces. Purdue is a couple late blown games against Rutgers and Nebraska away from being 6-3 themselves, while Northwestern has needed three straight overtime victories, or they could easily be 3-6. Instead the Wildcats are ranked, although their Indianapolis hopes are all but dashed, save a shocking Wisconsin collapse. Now they are playing for bowl positioning, and the thought of already being bowl eligible after the way they started the season is impressive itself, although considering bad Septembers have been their MO recently, maybe it shouldn't be. Playing meaningful games in November is not something Purdue fans have gotten to enjoy in some time. They haven't beaten ranked team since 2011, and that was an overrated Illinois early, before they had time to slide out. They haven't beaten a ranked team in November since toppling #10 Iowa in 2003, the week before losing to Ohio State in overtime, which cost them a share of the Big Ten title. So it's not hyperbole to say this would be the program's biggest win since 2003. It would also prevent a likely tougher game in Iowa City from being a must win. I agree with the Purdue poster who felt that David Blough was the better of the two options under center for Purdue, but Sindelar alone is better than the constant rotation. Granted if the receivers keep up with their dropsies, it won't matter. But the way Northwestern is gritting out wins right now, it might not matter anyway. Perhaps the biggest reason for their turnaround has been offensive line play, aided by better play calling. They were giving up the most sacks in the Big Ten, but over the last two weeks, they've given up a total of 1. Clayton Thorson has shown much more comfort in the offense too, dinking and dunking defenses to death. Purdue might be more equipped to defend that, surrendering more deep passes than consistent short passes, but the way Northwestern is playing right now, as they seem to every year as the season gets later, it's tough to pick against them. Particularly if Justin Jackson can build on his 154 yard rushing day from last week, after getting held down by Iowa and Michigan State in the previous two games.
NORTHWESTERN 28, PURDUE 17
*****BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK*****
#12 Michigan State Spartans (5-1, 7-2) at #13 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1, 7-2)
NOON - Columbus, OH - FOX
Two weeks ago it felt like reality had finally set in. The Buckeyes had seized control of the East Division, and Michigan State couldn't win every close game forever, and was about to begin a three game slide with Penn State and Ohio State to follow. But the Spartans bounced back and upset Penn State, while Ohio State, who had decimated all of the unranked teams on the schedule, were annihilated in Kinnick. So we are back to sort of where we have been more often than not since 2013, with the winner of MSU-OSU controlling their own destiny. Ohio State limps back home to the friendly confines of the Shoe, but in this series, that might not be the best thing. The Buckeyes have won six straight in East Lansing, their last loss coming in 1999; while Michigan State has won the last three played outside Spartan Stadium, two in a row in Columbus, plus the 2013 Big Ten Championship Game. One thing this series has frequently produced over the past six matchups, three wins by each, is defensive struggles. The winning team has failed to break 17 in 4 of those 6 matchups, including a 10-7 Michigan State win in 2011. J.T. Barrett had his coming out party against Michigan State in 2014, lighting the Spartans up deep over and over, which hasn't really been his game since. That might be a good thing, because unlike the last three incarnations of Dantonio's defense, this one excels guarding the deep ball. It's been the underneath stuff, particularly exploiting the tackling deficiencies that has proven most successful. Ohio State's secondary leaves much to be desired. It was thought the nation's best defensive line would help cover some of that up with an unrelenting pass rush. Instead the Buckeyes are only tied for 5th in the conference in sacks. For all the run game struggles, the Spartans line has done a good job keeping Lewerke upright, and when they haven't he has quickly developed a sense of when to bail. The playcalling, even in adverse weather, last week shows the level of confidence in the Michigan State run game. The offensive line is generating nothing, and when they do, L.J. Scott has repeatedly put the ball on the ground. For better or worse, the Spartans' three headed backfield is down to just Scott, with Gerald Holmes barely playing with an injury, and Madre London relegated to spot duty, not even registering a touch last week. If Scott avoids fumbles, he's the only one of the three that can make something of the nothing his line is providing. For Ohio State, Barrett needs to get back to being Barrett. Dantonio's plan is likely going to be to take away the backs and force Barrett to beat them, as has been the plan against Ohio State since Meyer arrived. The Spartan front seven is stout against the run, and for as bad as the back four are in tackling, the front seven has been that good. The problem is they lack the athleticism to get out in space. Even in the loss last week, Ohio State averaged 5.4 ypc. As well as Barrett had been playing, 4 picks seems tough to repeat.
OHIO STATE 34, MICHIGAN STATE 26
-
pillow fight in Minneapolis :'(
-
All picks in
-
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DOS1iZzUIAALZo_.jpg)
-
Great slate of grid iron gushing goin' on starting tonite with Huskies/Cardinal.Tomorrow with IA.ST/OK.ST,MSU-tOSU,VTech-GTech,IA-UW,Geo-Aub to name a few.My head's doing a Linda Blair.The conundrum is coffee or beer I could be divorced before it's all over.Nevermind I'll just watch the Browns
-
Bloodys and beer back for me tomorrow morning
Skers/Gophs kick at 11am
might have some Bailey's in my coffee around 7am to warm up