CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: 847badgerfan on December 22, 2019, 03:50:49 PM
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By now it's become pretty obvious that the West goes through Madison. They have won it 4 times in 6 years, while Iowa and NU have each won one. Next year is going to be interesting for sure.
UW Schedule:
Indiana
Southern Illinois (WTF)
Appy State
@ Michigan
Notre Dame (Lambeau)
Minnesota
Idle
@ Maryland
Illinois
@ Northwestern
@ Purdue
Nebraska
@ Iowa
Not liking 4 of the last 6 on the road. Opening up with Indiana could be tricky, but it's in Madison (probably on a Friday??).
Who are the contenders next season? Iowa? Minnie? Are the others ready to make a move?
Iowa's crossovers are Michigan State, @ Ohio State and @ Penn State - back-to-back-to-back.
Minnie's are @ Maryland, Michigan and @ Michigan State.
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Wisconsin has a great crossover, with the three worst B1G East teams (other than Rutgers). Iowa's crossover on the other hand is too tough, while Minny will take a Purdue sized step back after a breakout year. Thus paving the way for the Illinois duo to be the primary challengers for the Badgers in 2020.
The Illini are finally trending upward under Lovie Smith and his Santa beard, while Fitz will no doubt have the Wildcats back in the mix, after suffering a down year.
Nebraska with Frost will be the B1G West's version of the Wolverines under Harbaugh, annually favored to win their division in the preseason, but then trailing off into the middle of the pack once the season gets underway.
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Wisconsin has a great crossover, with the three worst B1G East teams (other than Rutgers). Iowa's crossover on the other hand is too tough, while Minny will take a Purdue sized step back after a breakout year. Thus paving the way for the Illinois duo to be the primary challengers for the Badgers in 2020.
The Illini are finally trending upward under Lovie Smith and his Santa beard, while Fitz will no doubt have the Wildcats back in the mix, after suffering a down year.
Nebraska with Frost will be the B1G West's version of the Wolverines under Harbaugh, annually favored to win their division in the preseason, but then trailing off into the middle of the pack once the season gets underway.
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs2.quickmeme.com%2Fimg%2F62%2F62d0de702d0b4bc73ad97530dee86442febfdeea0c876d906cbdbb76043018ab.jpg&hash=7fe403eda1ccf1f7ba7ac73387307570)
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Fans always focus too much on the cross-overs. The West division has always been won by the team with the best intra-division record.
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We should wait to write the epitaph after the 2019-20 season ends. In short, if we were to write it today, Iowa is in deep trouble for 2020.
There will be a new QB with very little experience. Tristan Wirfs and AJ Epenesa are likely to turn pro after their junior year. Chauncey Golston is a junior and had a better season than AJ Epenesa, and if Chauncey turns pro it will be another big blow. There are a few other seniors, but this was not a senior dominated roster this year. It's just that some of the key underclassmen players are leaving, and the Big Ten schedule which was daunting in 2019, is more daunting in 2020.
My belief is that Wisconsin, which outperformed my 2019 expectation, will again be atop the BTW in 2020. I see Minnesota coming on, but Minnesota has not had the recruiting success to overcome the Badgers.
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it's the Badgers until proven otherwise
but, ya gotta keep one eye on Fleck after this season
Iowa just does what Iowa does. If they are discounted pre-season they could be even more dangerous
Interesting to see if Northwestern will bounce back. I assume they will and have a solid season
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My vague memory is that it's Wisconsin and 1 or 2 other teams who "come out of nowhere" in effect to compete. Maybe Nebraska is primed? They seem to be forgotten.
We've seen NW, Minny, and Iowa compete when not really expected to be there. Even Illinois is showing some moxie, and Purdue had one year better than expected. I don't know what Wisconsin's worst year since the divisions has been, but my guess is they were second anyway.
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My vague memory is that it's Wisconsin and 1 or 2 other teams who "come out of nowhere" in effect to compete. Maybe Nebraska is primed? They seem to be forgotten.
We've seen NW, Minny, and Iowa compete when not really expected to be there. Even Illinois is showing some moxie, and Purdue had one year better than expected. I don't know what Wisconsin's worst year since the divisions has been, but my guess is they were second anyway.
Tied for 2nd, both times they didn't win it.
The only school that is recruiting "better" than Wisconsin right now is Nebraska, but that's how it's always been anyway.
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I don't know what Wisconsin's worst year since the divisions has been, but my guess is they were second anyway.
Pretty good guess.
They tied for 2nd last year at 5-4 with Purdue and Iowa. Northwestern ran away with it at 8-1.
In 2015, they tied for 2nd with Northwestern at 6-2, while Iowa took the division at 8-0
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Tied for 2nd, both times they didn't win it.
The only school that is recruiting "better" than Wisconsin right now is Nebraska, but that's how it's always been anyway.
It's simple really. Nebraska throws out a lot more nets than either Wisconsin or Iowa. The more nets you cast, the more fish you're likely to get.
Wisconsin and Iowa are 2 of the choosiest schools when it comes to recruiting, both are looking for a certain type of player and it works for them because the parts all work well together. Nebraska's got some very good individual parts, but Frost needs to figure out how to get the most out of his talent. I don't think he's gotten there yet.
I really think he's better off taking a page from the Badgers and Hawks and look for some hungry players. A three-star with a chip on his shoulder and is willing to redshirt to learn the system often works out far better than hotshot Joey Fourstar.
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Pelini liked the 3 star kids with huge chips on their shoulders
he almost won enough games
he came under fire for not recruiting stars
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UNL really should have kept him., in hindsight. I liked the Riley hire, but, hindsight. Man, he really set the program back.
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I liked the Riley hire too, but it turned out to be a disaster.
Leo Durocher could have said, "I told ya so!"
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All those 2 stars that Nebraska recruits get reclassified as 3 stars, with the helmet bump.
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Isn't Nebraska still paying Pelini to coach the Penguins?
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Pelini liked the 3 star kids with huge chips on their shoulders
he almost won enough games
he came under fire for not recruiting stars
I thought perhaps he was fired because of his gameday personality. He certainly won plenty of games. The optics Pelini displayed during games looked awful, and he drew bad publicity for the university.
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Pelini was fired for not winning championships
It seemed that he had reached his peak
if Bo would have won 8 or 9 games a season with class and handled the press and the fans and the politics with class, perhaps he would still be there. I doubt it.
When a coach isn't winning enough, we look for things we don't like to justify his firing.
Everything becomes questionable, sideline demeanor, recruiting, press relations, everything
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Riley is a good coach, just WAY too soft.
no discipline, kids running the program
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I thought perhaps he was fired because of his gameday personality. He certainly won plenty of games. The optics Pelini displayed during games looked awful, and he drew bad publicity for the university.
I had that feeling as well. Nebraska probably could have lived with Pelini's 9 wins each year, if he wasn't such an A*Hole.
They thought they could find a nice guy who could just as easily win 9 games a year, without being a jerk to everyone. And that's how they ended up with Riley.
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Pelini's game day persona is his most entertaining attribute.
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In the six years that the B1G-W has existed:
(https://i.imgur.com/BQ7m3cT.png)
Wisconsin has finished (reverse chronological from this year back):
- Tied for first, won the tie
- Tied for 2nd/3rd/4th behind NU
- First
- First
- Tied for 2nd/3rd behind IA
- First
In six years the B1G-W has yet to win the CG:
- UW lost to tOSU in 2014
- IA lost to MSU in 2015
- UW lost to PSU in 2016
- UW lost to tOSU in 2017
- NU lost to tOSU in 2018
- UW lost to tOSU in 2019
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Ed Zachery
Riley wasn't hired to be the greatest coach for the next 2 decades and take them back to greatness, Riley was hired to win 8 or 9 and be a good guy until the next great coach came along. (Scott Frost)
Eichorst couldn't handle Pelini and made a hasty change.
Eichorst was soft.
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In the six years that the B1G-W has existed:
(https://i.imgur.com/BQ7m3cT.png)
Interesting chart. This is the type of chart the conference must have been looking at when scheduling Iowa-Wisconsin as the last game of the year in 2020 and 2021. It reverts back to Iowa-Nebraska, and Wisconsin-Minnesota in 2022.
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Isn't Nebraska still paying Pelini to coach the Penguins?
nope, rumor that a booster of substance dropped the cash to buy out Pelini and Riley
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https://twitter.com/RyanBurnsMN/status/1209124538082111488
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Yeah, I had not groked that the West has yet to win the conference title game. The SEC has slightly more balance than that.
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I am not a fan of Friday night games, with one exception; I am okay with a Black Friday game. Nebraskans have trained us well.
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I enjoy some Thursday night games early in the year when it's Duke playing Wake Forest or some such.
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I am not a fan of Friday night games, with one exception; I am okay with a Black Friday game. Nebraskans have trained us well.
I HATE Friday night games. (With the exception of Black Friday, since there is no high school games being played then.)
I have missed 1, and exactly 1 Buckeye game in the last 26 years. It was this years Friday game in Evanston. *shudders*
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Pelini was fired for not winning championships
It seemed that he had reached his peak
if Bo would have won 8 or 9 games a season with class and handled the press and the fans and the politics with class, perhaps he would still be there. I doubt it.
When a coach isn't winning enough, we look for things we don't like to justify his firing.
Everything becomes questionable, sideline demeanor, recruiting, press relations, everything
Riley is a good coach, just WAY too soft.
no discipline, kids running the program
Ed Zachery
Riley wasn't hired to be the greatest coach for the next 2 decades and take them back to greatness, Riley was hired to win 8 or 9 and be a good guy until the next great coach came along. (Scott Frost)
Eichorst couldn't handle Pelini and made a hasty change.
Eichorst was soft.
Frank Solich went 9-4, 12-1, 10-2, 11-2, 7-7, 9-3, was a gentleman in the class of Tom Osborne, and got fired before the Alamo Bowl in 2003. Overall, he went 56-19, averaging 9.33 wins/year. It seems that he was fired because Nebraska was not beating Oklahoma and Texas with any regularity.
Then Nebraska inexplicably hired Bill Callahan, coming off a 4-12 season as HFC of the Oakland Raiders. He went 5-6, 8-4, 9-5, 5-7. Overall, 27-22, averaging 6.5 wins/year. Bill Callahan is not head coaching material. He's not a flaming jackass like Bo Pelini, but it seems that he can't relate to or gain the consistent support of his players.
Bo Pelini went 1-0 (2003 Alamo Bowl), then, following the disaster that was Bill Callahan, 9-4, 10-4, 10-4, 9-4, 10-4, 9-4, 9-3. He never won a conference title, but his divisional finishes were: Big 12N: T-1st, 1st, T-1st; B1G Legends: 3rd, 1st, T-2nd; B1G West T-2nd. His overall record was 67-27, averaging 9.6 wins/year.
So Pelini was the most successful post-Osborne HFC and stayed the longest. But it seems to me that he basically forced the Nebraska admins to fire him. The first leaked audiotape was effectively a kick to the nuts of the University of Nebraska.
In that first one, after many fans left during the 3rd quarter of a comeback win over tOSU, he said: "Our crowd. What a bunch of f***ing fair-weather f***ing—they can all kiss my ass out the f***ing door. 'Cause the day is f***ing coming now. We'll see what they can do when I'm f***ing gone. I'm so f***ing pissed off."
He also had numerous heated/furious/out-of-control confrontations with officials, some of them resulting in penalties. After a loss to Iowa--during which he had lost control and been penalized--at the end of the 2013 season, he remained defiant in the post-game presser, referring to his penalty as "chicken shit." He also declared, "If they want to fire me, go ahead . . . I don't apologize for anything I have done." He did apologize later.
From afar, I thought that Pelini was a weekly embarrassment to the University of Nebraska. But his behavior didn't keep him from winning at a decent clip, and it didn't queer the deal with the move to the Big Ten. Still, it seems to me that Nebraska fired him more for his bad behavior than his reasonable level of success, "only" winning 9.6 games/year. (This is more or less consistent with your last post quoted.)
In the second audiotape, 2 days after he was fired, meeting with his former team in a high school, he said: "It wasn't a surprise to me. It really wasn't. I didn't really have any relationship with the AD. The guy — you guys saw him (Sunday) — the guy's a total p----. I mean, he is. He's a total c---." I think there's some insight into his character. Not many schools would have had him coach after a tirade like that. Youngstown State did, of course, but he's a hometown boy.
I wonder how things might have worked out between Pelini and Nebraska had they hired him after the 2003 Alamo Bowl rather than going on a 41-day coaching search that resulted in Callahan coming to Lincoln. Would he have lasted as long as he did? Or would Nebraska's standards have still been high, so high that Frank Solich hadn't met them, resulting in less patience with Pelini's antics than the University showed from 2008-2014?
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All good questions. I'm of the kind that believes that Pelini's termination (reasons well summarized above) was akin to what I see a lot in my professional career.....we've seen enough, you've worn out your welcome, and frankly this is time to go our separate ways. This wasn't one thing, and by all accounts, Pelini was really good on the 'off the field' circuit, and was affable, approachable, well received out in the community. Between the lines though, we all saw it, or heard it, and that became enough, over time.
Not that I must defend myself here, but I was pretty consistent with my views, in sum: firing Solich led me to never donate again, I went 14 years between attending a home game, I loathed Stevie Pedey, BC was an absolute fish out of water, I hated his WCO, never thought he would succeed, be a fit, etc. Riley was (football wise) Billy C 2.0, and his recruiting was an abomination. Having said that, 9 win seasons are not a birthright, and there's nothing that says Nebraska has to be a football power indefinitely, I don't expect 60-3 five year runs to occur again, let alone 50-13.
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Scott Frost made it very clear that he thought Solich and Pelini were good coaches, Callahan and Riley did NOT do things the right way at Nebraska
Pelini was his own worst issue obviously. While Osborne was the AD he survived. When Eichorst came into the AD spot there was a lack of respect there that couldn't be overcome.
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Tressel jokes that he has to give Pelini a pretty wide berth on game day. That he just becomes completely maniacal.
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might not be a joke
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Scott Frost made it very clear that he thought Solich and Pelini were good coaches, Callahan and Riley did NOT do things the right way at Nebraska
Pelini was his own worst issue obviously. While Osborne was the AD he survived. When Eichorst came into the AD spot there was a lack of respect there that couldn't be overcome.
Riley was odd because he’s a pretty good coach, but not at that job and probably not at that time in his career.
Callahan is a good assistant and was hired in one of the greatest moves of institutional hubris we’ve seen.
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Callahan is a good O-line coach
that should of been his position in Lincoln
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AS we've noted many times, firing a coach might be needed, but you can go through a few before finding a good one again. The issue with lesser programs is that when they find a good one, everyone else notices too. Look at Appy State, they found a good one, and may have another.
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I just don't understand firing a "decent" coach, a Solich or Pelini, if you don't have a better coach lined up to take the job.
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It's a delicate line. Didn't Auburn get into a mess 10-15 years ago with talking to a coach about taking the job while another coach was still employed? Maybe Tuberville was the incumbent coach?
In Nebraska's case, they probably shouldn't have fired Solich, but you have to fire Pelini. He was just out of control and not representing the university well.
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Ya Pelini just twisted off too much.If it was just the one time when the fans left early,I could understand.To him that was not showing support/faith in the players/program by the so called best fans in CFB.After that however he almost seemed like a primma donna looking for attention.Or maybe he just wanted out but wouldn't get the benefits if he just stepped down,thus forcing them to fire him
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Anyway 2020 could tell a lot about the future of UNL football fortunes.IMO Frost is the guy I just think it's gonna take time.Wasn't T.O. there like 17 yrs before winning it all?Might take that slow,steady climb to get back there re-establishing their brand and the recruiting base.
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Brash as it may be, he sorta had a point. They haven't been very good since he left.
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Penn State has hired away Minnesota’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, Kirk Ciarrocca.
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Penn State has hired away Minnesota’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, Kirk Ciarrocca.
Ooh, a new item for PJB's poster. Assistants making lateral moves to other teams in conference: 1!
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Kirk's next stop might be the NFL
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Ooh, a new item for PJB's poster.
Who's PJB?
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Barnum
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Thanks for the assist, Fearless. I wasn't sure if the board was ready for the abbreviation yet or not.
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I suppose it's better than being referred to as PBJ?
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Insult to PB&J sammiches. PJ Barnum it is.
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Didn't Fleck have a flattop at WMU? Or am I mixing him up with Butch Jones?
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Jones was at Central Mich and had a flat top.Then he coached for Rocky Top
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lol make fun of a coach that goes 10-2 = jealousy
we get it you guys dont like him, I dont particularly like some coaches of your squads
but name calling is a bit childish behavior
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(https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/4f01445f480f7c45bb88f6f6acdd45a5060fd679/c=0-50-1050-1450/local/-/media/DetroitFreePress/2014/11/14/usatsi8056797115794393lowres.jpg?width=534&height=712&fit=crop)
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10-2 is very credible (unless you are Nick Saban), all the more so for a Minnesota. They were fun to watch. I'll be interested to see if Illinois and Indiana can continue to progress. Sometimes, a program like Purdue looks to be on the verge and then, isn't.
At least Rutger is predictable.
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lol make fun of a coach that goes 10-2 = jealousy
we get it you guys dont like him, I dont particularly like some coaches of your squads
but name calling is a bit childish behavior
it's a bit childish, just poking fun at the guy's delivery
obviously PJ can flat out coach
not jealousy for me, although I'd trade the Husker's woeful record for 10-2
Billy C. (Callahan) and obviously Pelini were easy to dislike. Not sure I remember all the names folks had for Bo.
Mike Riley was likeable, especially for opposing fans
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Definitely not jealousy for me. Very pleased with the man in charge for UW right now.
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Oh it's just some good natured ribbing. I enjoy having personalities like him and Harbaugh in the conference.
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Do you think Wisconsin has "maxed out"? Or could they find themselves in the playoff realistically? I know it's possible and their aim. A Rose Bowl is a good result for them.
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I think if BAylor and Minnesota can have 10 win seasons, Wisconsin can certainly have a few things fall their way and make the playoff with a conference championship
like, you know, Ohio St. is on probation
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I can see Wisconsin going 12-0 if the schedule breaks in their favor fairly easily (like one year in a decade), but the OSU thing looms large.
OSu can't be THIS good every year though. Right?
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right
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They were one drive away in 2017. I think it could happen, but everything has to break right (the committee does not give mulligans to schools like mine).
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Usually, if you win a P5 conference with one or fewer losses, you will be "in".
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They were one drive away in 2017. I think it could happen, but everything has to break right (the committee does not give mulligans to schools like mine).
I don't think that is entirely true because of this:
Usually, if you win a P5 conference with one or fewer losses, you will be "in".
I well know that there are exceptions but it isn't all about helmets. My school has a helmet as big as any around here and missed the CFP with one loss in:
- 2018 with a loss to PU and a B1G Championship
- 2015 with a loss to MSU and no B1G Championship
Do you think Wisconsin has "maxed out"? Or could they find themselves in the playoff realistically? I know it's possible and their aim. A Rose Bowl is a good result for them.
I definitely don't think Wisconsin has "maxed out". They aren't THAT far from a CFP appearance:
- 2019: UW was a stupid upset (IL) and a near-upset (B1GCG) from the CFP
- 2017: UW was REALLY close. They only lost the CG by six and a win there would have had them 13-0 and obviously in.
It could definitely happen. Winning the CFP, however, is a much taller order. Back in the BCS era and prior, I think that UW had a chance at winning a NC. A team like UW needed a lot of luck. They would have needed things to break their way in the regular season then either one upset (BCS) or the appropriate level of chaos (pre-BCS) to win an NC.
I think that the playoff has made it much less likely. In the BCS era all that a UW team needed once they got there was one win over a top team. Pre-BCS they might not have even needed that. There were years in which the PAC Champion wasn't all that good. Now you need two wins over VERY good teams. So far in the CFP era that has only happened for Ohio State once and Clemson and Bama twice each.
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right
W-R-0-0-0-N-N-G
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So, I agree Wisconsin could make the playoffs, but likely would not be favored.
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Of course they can. Wisconsin, Penn St and Michigan St have each proven on multiple occasions that they can knock off the Buckeyes and win Big Ten Titles. They are right on the doorstep.
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So, I agree Wisconsin could make the playoffs, but likely would not be favored.
You could probably say that about any non-SEC, non-Clemson team that makes it.
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Of course they can. Wisconsin, Penn St and Michigan St have each proven on multiple occasions that they can knock off the Buckeyes and win Big Ten Titles. They are right on the doorstep.
LoL, I see what you did there, well played!
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LoL, I see what you did there, well played!
Well... Those hqve been the primary adversaries in the Big Ten title race over the past two decades.
The Wolverines have only competed for preseason Big Ten Titles this century/millennium, save one or two seasons under Lloyd.
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so,.... it wouldn't be Michigan?
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It "could" be Michigan, but if we are going to venture that far out on the weeds then we might as well toss in Indiana and Michigan.
MSU has already made it to the playoffs, while PSU and Wisconsin have been right on the cusp.
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If you are saying that Wisconsin and PSU have been on the cusp of making the playoffs, you could argue that Iowa and Michigan have also been on the cusp of making the playoffs.
In 2015, Iowa went into the Big Ten CCG with a 12-0 record and ranked #4 in the CFP. Iowa lost the CCG to MSU 16-13, when MSU scored the winning TD with 42 seconds left. If Iowa stops MSU on that last drive, Iowa goes to the playoffs instead of MSU.
In 2016, Mich lost in OT to OSU. If Mich would have won that game, odds are good they would have made the playoffs if they go on to win the CCG. Heck, Mich also lost to Iowa in 2016 on a last second FG. If Mich wins that game, they also have a chance to make the playoffs.
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The difference is Michigan has always been at least 2 games away. Iowa and Wisconsin have been one possession away.
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Ya Pelini just twisted off too much.If it was just the one time when the fans left early,I could understand.To him that was not showing support/faith in the players/program by the so called best fans in CFB.After that however he almost seemed like a primma donna looking for attention.Or maybe he just wanted out but wouldn't get the benefits if he just stepped down,thus forcing them to fire him
You're overthinking it, Mr. Nubbz.
He is a flaming jackass. End of story. If it hadn't been fans leaving before a comeback win it would have been something else.