| The Group of Five representative in the New Years Six has gone 3-2 during the first five years of the current setup, and disparate motivations are often cited as a reason for that. As far as SP+ goes, Memphis was the correct choice, finishing ranked #13, making them the highest rated mid-major in the six year period, and quite comfortably. So is Penn State ready? Because three times already, a worse Group of 5 team has pulled this game out. If you are looking to other intangibles where Memphis might have the advantage, for the first time all year, the Tigers will not have a decided special teams advantage. Memphis ranks #3 nationally in SP+ special teams, but Penn State sits at #7, so that's a wash. Memphis' offense against Penn State's defense should also be a lot of fun, both ranking #8 in SP+ respectfully. The Nittany Lions' defense hasn't been quite as good down the stretch though, nearly letting Michigan come back from 21 points down, and it was a dropped pass, not a defensive stand, that allowed them to hold on. The held Ohio State to "only" 28 points, but Ohio State played fast and loose with the ball. Indiana scored 27 on them, and Minnesota scored 31, even though they went into a shell in the fourth quarter. It's that Minnesota game that has me the most concerned, I still see Gopher receivers running free all over the field. The Tigers look to run a similar look, hitting deep strikes down field. The Gophers were #6 nationally at 15.9 yards per completion. Memphis will be the second highest that the Nittany Lions secondary has faced, #11 nationally at 14.7, so you'd hope they would have tightened that up, or it could be more of the same. It totally negates whatever advantage Penn State has up front if the secondary can't hold up a little. But whatever advantage Memphis' receivers might have, Penn State should be able to control the ground game on their side of the ball against a Memphis defense that was very average within the AAC. And when it comes to discipline, woah boy. The Tigers are one of the most penalized teams in the nation, and now you mix in a bowl game, with an in flux coaching staff? I think Memphis gets their yards through the air, but lacks enough balance offensively to move the sticks consistently, and shoot themselves in the foot too often to pull off the upset. |