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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: 847badgerfan on December 09, 2019, 09:46:21 AM

Title: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 09, 2019, 09:46:21 AM
May as well get this one going. UW opens as a 3 point favorite, which means absolutely nothing to me.

I guess I need to study up on the Ducks, and how they managed to jump 7 spots yesterday to their current #6 rating.
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: FearlessF on December 09, 2019, 09:50:01 AM
the Ducks beat the feathers out of the Utes.  And the Utes were very good.  Great defense
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: SFBadger96 on December 09, 2019, 12:39:09 PM
Oregon's record doesn't look all that different from Wisconsin's. It lost to a good Auburn team in a close game, had a stupid loss to Arizona State (see, e.g., Illinois), a close win against a significant conference rival at Washington (a good, but not great team; see, e.g., Iowa, but not as good), and put the hurt on a good Utah team (see, e.g., Michigan and Minnesota). Oregon didn't struggle much this season, but also didn't play as tough a schedule as Wisconsin. 

Should be a really good game. And I really, really, really want to avenge the 2012 loss.
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 09, 2019, 12:49:33 PM
The Badger front should average five pancakes per snap.
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: MaximumSam on December 09, 2019, 01:31:07 PM
FancyStats haven't loved Oregon (16th in SP+) but I have been impressed when I've seen them.  
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: MarqHusker on December 09, 2019, 02:34:43 PM
They, the ducks,  have a highly touted OL.  In other words some nerds out there say it is one of the best.


Oregon has been weird this year, I've watched them a bunch.  Pretty balanced offense, not as prolific as years past.  Defense is also better than in years past..  They left about 20 points on the field vs Auburn.  I don't know how they lost that one.    This should be one of the more interesting matchups.

I think the committee launched them on the heels of pasting Utah and winning a conference, nothing more than that.
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 09, 2019, 02:44:24 PM
I always like to check in on other team boards to get a feel for their thoughts.

On 247, they think the Ducks will destroy the Badgers, because the Badgers have a crappy QB and no downfield threat at WR. Apparently never heard of QC, and don't they realize that Coan is above 70% on completions, has 17 TD's to 4 INT's, and a QBR of 83.1 (8th in the country). Incidentally, the Duck QB is ranked 26th in the country.

I'm pretty sure the Oregon coaches aren't this dumb. 
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 09, 2019, 04:43:40 PM
Oregon has gone much more with size and physicality on their O-line and defense.  

Thus is a great matchup!  I am going to out early and say higher scoring game with the Badgers by a td.  
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: MrNubbz on December 10, 2019, 01:31:34 PM
Oregon didn't struggle much this season, but also didn't play as tough a schedule as Wisconsin.

Should be a really good game. 
Good Post,this should be a great gamee to watch
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: bayareabadger on December 10, 2019, 08:05:53 PM
The Badger front should average five pancakes per snap.
Probably not true this time around.

Oregon's defense is basically on pr with UW's from an advanced stats point. Top-10 in points allowed per game, 16th in yards per play allowed, 13th in YPC allowed, 11th in defensive points per drive. Their D-line was solid but not special in terms of runs of 5 or more yards (49th) and short yardage stop rate (29th).

Interestingly Oregon's O-line is supposed to be very good, but is mostly just decent to good. Their QB doesn't always play up to his talent, but is special when he does (his WRs are bad).

UW's OL is good not great. Though they are 35th in percent of carries that get 5 or more yards and 4th in short yardage conversions. 
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: Benthere2 on December 11, 2019, 04:33:54 PM
Wisconsin finally started playing like I expected them to towards the end of the year  not sure what happened with Illinois but they totally looked like the better team in the OSU rematch but/until that 2nd half.  it kind of emphasized  that OSU is the real deal and basically got hosed by the committee

If Wisconsin plays like it can, this will be a easy win
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: ELA on December 12, 2019, 11:03:28 AM
Not sure if this was otherwise out there, but the ESPN College Football podcast had the Peach Bowl CEO on, and he said that after selecting the 4 CFP teams, they went to the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton Bowls, who had potential automatic tie ins, as to who they would select.

That seems kind of weird to me.  I don't care per se, but it basically tells you that the bowls are still selecting the teams, not the rankings.  Wisconsin was kept ahead of Penn State, because that's who the Rose Bowl wanted.  Georgia was kept ahead of Florida(?) because the Sugar Bowl wanted them.  And if the Cotton Bowl had wanted Appalachian State, would the committee have then jumped them over Memphis?
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 12, 2019, 12:10:33 PM
Those bowls are not required to take the highest ranking team. It is a guide only. I don't think the playoff wonks changed any rankings to favor UW in this case.

I was told the Rose would have been happy with either PSU or UW (a Tournament of Roses committee member told me - a PSU alum). They went with the higher-ranked team, which they are happy with, regardless.
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: Cincydawg on December 12, 2019, 12:12:52 PM
I always like to check in on other team boards to get a feel for their thoughts.

On 247, they think the Ducks will destroy the Badgers, because the Badgers have a crappy QB and no downfield threat at WR. Apparently never heard of QC, and don't they realize that Coan is above 70% on completions, has 17 TD's to 4 INT's, and a QBR of 83.1 (8th in the country). Incidentally, the Duck QB is ranked 26th in the country.

I'm pretty sure the Oregon coaches aren't this dumb.

Coan is more of a System Quarterback though, so it doesn't count.
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 12, 2019, 12:16:19 PM
Yep. 

UW has system QB's, system RB's, system WR's, system TE's, system OL's, system DL's, system LB's, and system DB's.

They even have system kickers and system punters.
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: CWSooner on December 12, 2019, 12:17:44 PM
Not sure if this was otherwise out there, but the ESPN College Football podcast had the Peach Bowl CEO on, and he said that after selecting the 4 CFP teams, they went to the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton Bowls, who had potential automatic tie ins, as to who they would select.

That seems kind of weird to me.  I don't care per se, but it basically tells you that the bowls are still selecting the teams, not the rankings.  Wisconsin was kept ahead of Penn State, because that's who the Rose Bowl wanted.  Georgia was kept ahead of Florida(?) because the Sugar Bowl wanted them.  And if the Cotton Bowl had wanted Appalachian State, would the committee have then jumped them over Memphis?
I'm pretty sure that the Cotton Bowl was obligated to take the highest-ranked (per CFP rankings) G5 conference champion.
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: Cincydawg on December 12, 2019, 12:23:24 PM
System long snappers too.

I find, in general, fans of the other team generally are rather confident about the upcoming bowl games.

Half of them, more or less, will be wrong.

Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: ELA on December 12, 2019, 12:41:00 PM
I'm pretty sure that the Cotton Bowl was obligated to take the highest-ranked (per CFP rankings) G5 conference champion.
Right, but I believe that's the case across the board.  So if the Rose Bowl had wanted Penn State, they would have been ranked ahead of Wisconsin.  If Sugar had wanted Florida, they would have been ranked ahead of Georgia.  He mentioned they consulted the Cotton Bowl too, so I'm wondering if they verified which G5 champ they wanted.  So if they wanted Boise State, would Boise have magically jumped over Memphis in the rankings?
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: ELA on December 12, 2019, 12:43:00 PM
Those bowls are not required to take the highest ranking team. It is a guide only. I don't think the playoff wonks changed any rankings to favor UW in this case.

I was told the Rose would have been happy with either PSU or UW (a Tournament of Roses committee member told me - a PSU alum). They went with the higher-ranked team, which they are happy with, regardless.
I think ranking their preferred team higher makes the optics better though.  He confirmed that the committee consulted the bowls before completing their rankings.  There would be no other reason to do so.


Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to go to the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference. There is, however, a caveat to that clause in the contract.

“If the next-highest ranked team is in a ‘cluster’ of teams, meaning there is another team or teams from the same conference ranked within several spots of each other, the Tournament of Roses will select the team from that cluster that will result in the best possible matchup for the Rose Bowl Game,” said Rose Bowl Management Committee Chair Scott Jenkins.

In a cluster situation, the Tournament of Roses will take into account factors, in no particular order, such as: the last time a team played in the Rose Bowl Game, head-to-head results, regular season schedule, overall record, opponents played, past playoff or bowl appearances and performance, and historical matchups.

It should be noted that it is the strong preference of the Tournament of Roses, Pac-12 and Big Ten Conferences, that the highest-ranked available team in each conference be selected as the replacement team.

Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: FearlessF on December 12, 2019, 01:49:55 PM
I think ranking their preferred team higher makes the optics better though.  He confirmed that the committee consulted the bowls before completing their rankings.  There would be no other reason to do so.


that's just awesome
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: SFBadger96 on December 12, 2019, 02:16:57 PM
It's almost as if programs have systems. And successful programs have successful systems.

Mind. Blown.
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 29, 2019, 10:38:20 AM
I'm really looking forward to this one. UW has been to 3 Rose Bowls this decade and has not won. They really need this one as a program.
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: FearlessF on December 29, 2019, 10:51:35 AM
get that nasty defense off the bus and it's a big win
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 29, 2019, 11:01:31 AM
I worry about the corners being able to cover those speedy Oregon WR's. I do have a lot of confidence in the front 7 and I don't think Oregon will be able to run the ball much. Hopefully they can get pressure on that QB, to take some heat off the corners.

The Badgers on offense just need to grind them down and use play-action to hit in the passing game. Don't get too cute. No trick plays. Just grind.
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: FearlessF on December 29, 2019, 11:04:31 AM
Ed Zachery

If the corners are having trouble covering, send them on the blitz!
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 29, 2019, 11:59:44 AM
I like The Badgers in this one. If the LBs are healthy- throw some zone in the backend- take away the run, and make Oregon work down the field slowly. 
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: 847badgerfan on December 29, 2019, 12:01:33 PM
All the LB's are good to go in this one. Losing Burks and Orr (more so) really hurt in Indy.
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: Honestbuckeye on December 29, 2019, 12:27:27 PM
All the LB's are good to go in this one. Losing Burks and Orr (more so) really hurt in Indy.
Exactly why I said that.  The difference was notable.  I think if the badgers can avoid giving up big plays in the pass game, it turns this into a Wisconsin favorable pace.   

Get those LBs on Herbert fast so they have only quick passes, and be in zone to eliminate YAC.  

I feel like Wisconsin can move the ball and score at a decent pace.
Title: Re: Rose Bowl: #6 Oregon (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin (10-3)
Post by: ELA on December 29, 2019, 03:20:49 PM


ROSE BOWL
#8 Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) vs. #6 Oregon Ducks (11-2)
New Years Day @ 5:00 - Pasadena, CA - ESPN
For the Badgers to kick off the 2020 right, both teams need to reverse some recent Pasadena trends.  Oregon hadn't won a Rose Bowl since the third version of the game, back in 1917 against Penn, until winning their last two.  Wisconsin, who had gone 3-0 in the 90s, lost three consecutive Rose Bowls this decade.  As non-playoff Rose Bowls go in this CFP era, this is about as good as it gets.  You've got a pair of top 10 teams, the Pac 12 champ, and the Big Ten runner up, both with things to prove, neither one disappointed to be here.  To the winner, you can say you had a really good year, save one fluky result.  Oregon would love to get that Arizona State game back, and just had a bad break against Auburn.  Wisconsin would love that Illinois game back, and simply wasnt quite as good as an elite Ohio State team.  You've also got a pair of singular talents in Oregon's Justin Herbert and Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor, who, if you told me preseason, would have been in New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation, would not have surprised me at all.  Taylor finished third in the nation in rushing, although both his total yardage and yards per carry were career lows.  He improved in other areas though, to be a more complete back, becoming a bigger red zone threat, not just a home run hitter, and developed as a weapon in the passing game.  Herbert has always been more about his NFL potential than his actual production.  He actually had a lower Total QBR than Jack Coan,  but did improve across the board from 2018.  A big part of that was improvement from his receivers, who led the nation in dropped passes in 2018, but were rated by PFF as the #15 group this year, even with the loss of starting tight end Jacob Breeland to a season ending injury.  Part of that was a scheme which emphasized downfield passing much less this year.  In this case, that might play into what Wisconsin's defense does best, tight coverage to limit completions, but are susceptible to the big play.  Only LSU held opponents below Wisconsin's 50.7% opponents completion percentage, but Bucky was 67th nationally in yards per completion allowed, and only three Big Ten teams allowed more 50+ yard passes.  Time of possession doesn't matter much anymore, and you certainly would be hard pressed to find two programs with a wider mindset towards it, but this isn't quite the explosive Oregon offense we were used to the last time they were on top.  Granted they still aren't looking to grind it out, ranking in the bottom 20 of the FBS in terms of third downs faced per game.  Wisconsin is the second best third down defense in the country.  If the Wisconsin defense can win first and second down, they'll win this game, because they dominate third down, and Oregon doesn't tend to even get there.  This Duck offense is rolling right now, as we saw against Utah.  Wisconsin looks a lot like Utah to me, although I don't see it getting ugly.
OREGON 27, WISCONSIN 26