| These are getting tougher to do, why anyone would gamble on them, I don't know. You always had the question of differing motivations which made these a bit wonkier than regular season games, but now you've got guys sitting out, with the redshirt rules, you've got coaches using it as a shot to give true freshmen some run, and depending on when a kid transferred, you can play a transfer who otherwise wasn't eligible all season. Last year you had a bowl game between West Virginia and Syracuse, where the Mountaineers' Heisman candidate quarterback didn't play, and the go ahead Syracuse touchdown was scored by Trishton Jackson, a transfer who technically became eligible at the end of the semester, and didn't burn the redshirt by playing in the bowl. So good luck predicting that game. Just listening to some of the Michigan State podcasts, the consensus seems to be to give Brian Lewerke one more run with the ones, and then give Lombardi (eh), redshirt freshman Theo Day, and true freshman Payton Thorne each a full a quarter. All I can do is call this as though the players who are able and willing to play will play, and the coaches coach it like a real game. Spartan fans seem to wish that Mark Dantonio was as open to change as Dave Clawson was, in reinventing his offense. Although in fairness, he also made changes on the fly, while retaining Warren Ruggiero as offensive coordinator. In 2016, the Deacons averaged 69.8 plays per game, in the bottom 30 of the FBS. Just two years later, in 2018, Wake Forest led the nation with 85 plays per game, and #3 at 2.89 plays per minute. Only Houston and Central Florida went faster. They repeated that in 2019. In 2018 they were just fast, now they are fast, but with improving efficiency. The Spartan run defense isn't what it was in 2018 or the early portion of 2019, but is still strong, and Wake Forest is only picking up 3.6 ypc on the ground, but that hasn't deterred the Wake Forest play calling, which is #50 in the nation in run play percentage, despite being just #85 in run yardage percentage. The loss of Sage Surratt, the team's best WR is a portion of that, and if quarterback Jamie Newman doesn't play, it could swing even more in their favor. I don't expect the Deacons to sustain drives, but the Michigan State defense, particularly late in the year, was way too susceptible to big plays. Michigan State ranked top 25 nationally in number of plays allowed over 10, 20 and 30 yards...then fell all the way to #65 in plays of over 40 yards. The Deacons also rank #12 nationally in turnovers created, whereas Michigan State is 0-6 when losing the turnover battle. Hmmmm, an offense that hits big plays, and dominates turnovers. If only we had seen the Spartans in a game like that recently... |