CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big XII => Topic started by: CWSooner on December 03, 2019, 09:48:58 PM
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This is from an OU-homer board, so take it with however large a grain of salt you feel appropriate.
Granted, step one is beating a tough Baylor team on Saturday, but as to the Utah versus Big XII Champ debate, here is how the Sagarin system (considered by most to be the best of the ranking algorithms) sees things:
Conference Strength (simple mean):
1. SEC - 80.1
2. Big XII - 79.9 (Naturally, how many of the talking heads have opined that the Big XII should be in the conversation for strongest conference? Yeah, zero, of course.)
3. Big Ten - 78.0
4. PAC 12 - 76.5
5. ACC - 72.7
Overall Rating:
OU - 93.9 (6th)
Utah - 90.9 (9th)
Baylor - 88.1 (15th)
Record versus Top 25:
OU - 4-1
Baylor - 4-1
Utah - 1-1
Record versus Top 50:
OU - 6-1
Baylor - 6-1
Utah - 3-1
Overall Schedule Strength:
OU - #22 (74.9 avg opp)
Baylor - #42 (72.8 avg opp)
Utah - #54 (70.5 avg opp)
Conference Quartile Strength (for 10-team leagues 3, 5/6, 8 - for 12-team leagues 3/4, 6/7, 9/10 - for 14-team leagues 4, 7/8, 11):
Big XII - 83.2 --- 82.1 --- 73.1
SEC - 90.9 --- 76.8 --- 72.9
Big Ten - 90.6 --- 76.4 --- 67.7
PAC 12 - 82.9 --- 75.1 --- 69.6
ACC - 73.7 -- 71.5 --- 69.5
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the Utes aren't getting in if the Boomers win
too much helmet to overcome
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the Utes aren't getting in if the Boomers win
too much helmet to overcome
Yup.
B12 was a tough conference this year no doubt. It's just not sexy to talk about how strong Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, or Iowa State might be.
But if OU beats Baylor, it won't be SOS or relative conference strength that puts the Sooners into the CFP. Like Fearless said, it'll be the helmet.
Disney paid $6 billion for the CFP. Their Selection Committee knows that OU turns on a lot more TV sets than Utah does. Just that simple.
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the Utes aren't getting in if the Boomers win
Nor should the Utes get in if Baylor wins. After all, Baylor will have beaten the mighty Boomers.
But moreover, compare some of the above data, Baylor vs. Utes.
PAC 12 shouldn't be getting in either way. Baylor would manhandle Utah. People vote is tainting this - computer vote would go with Baylor every time, especially with a defeat of OU.
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Utah's defense appears to be legitimately good. I think a Baylor/Utah game would be a pretty low-scoring battle.
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I really hope we don't have to watch Clemson/LSU mudstomp Utah in the 1st round. Oh, the humanity.
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I'm not sure Clemson is capable of mud-stomping ANY good teams, so even if they match up against Utah, you'll still get your wish.
This year's Clemson team is NOT last year's Clemson team. The ACC is about as unwatchable as any football I've ever seen. Texas 5-A high school playoff football is played at a higher level than the ACC.
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Which conference is stronger?
One with 4 highly ranked teams, 2 OK teams, and 6 pretty bad teams, or
One with 1 highly ranked team, 9 OK teams, and 2 bad teams?
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I really hope we don't have to watch Clemson/LSU mudstomp Utah in the 1st round. Oh, the humanity.
wouldn't it likely be the Buckeyes with the #1 seed
are you saying you'd rather the Sooners or Baylor Bears get mudstomped?
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Which conference is stronger?
One with 4 highly ranked teams, 2 OK teams, and 6 pretty bad teams, or
One with 1 highly ranked team, 9 OK teams, and 2 bad teams?
What aspect of strength are we dealing with? How hard it is for a team to negotiate its own conference schedule, or how tough an opponent the mediam team from that conference would be?
You've got two 12-team, hence two-divisions, with CCGs, conferences here. That changes the consideration from a 10-team conference with a round-robin schedule and a CCG involving the top two teams.
Considering the examples you offered, they are probably going to be rated about the same if "mean strength" is the metric. But they present different problems to teams trying to work their way through their schedules.
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wouldn't it likely be the Buckeyes with the #1 seed
If Ohio St. draws LSU or Clemson in the 1st round, they'll be gone.
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If Ohio St. draws LSU or Clemson in the 1st round, they'll be gone.
I agree concerning LSU but Clemson Im not so sure about
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I think Ohio State is the most complete team out there. I think having a mobile QB gets even more important when you face elite level opponents. He can extend plays 2-3-4 times a game and turn an 8 yard loss into a potential gain. Even Trevor Lawrence does this some.
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I think Ohio State is the most complete team out there. I think having a mobile QB gets even more important when you face elite level opponents. He can extend plays 2-3-4 times a game and turn an 8 yard loss into a potential gain. Even Trevor Lawrence does this some.
That's what I'm thinking too. Ohio State seems to have an offense as good as anybody's, plus the best defense of any teams who are likely to join the Buckeyes on the CFP.
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Buckeyes definitely look really good on both sides of the ball.
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The OSU defense ranks very high in every statistical ranking. One might argue they have not played a high powered offense of course. Folks claim the B12 has no defense as you well know, but UGA gave up a lot of points to OU in the RB. In an offensive styled league, defenses are going to be statistically poor even if they are very good.
UGA hasn't played a higher powered offense either (but is about to see one). LSU did face a pretty solid defense in Auburn.
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I think Ohio State is the most complete team out there.
I agree with this. But "complete" still won't beat the juggernauts.
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I agree with this. But "complete" still won't beat the juggernauts.
If Ohio State isn't the juggernaut, then who is? 2-loss Alabama ain't backing its way into the tournament, not this year anyway, and Clemson struggled with North Carolina.
You talkin' about LSU as the juggernaut?
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I think the Top Three are exactly that, and Clemson isn't as bad as folks started to think after UNC. I see OSU as having all the pieces to win the NC, which doesn't mean they will of course, a lot of randomness happens in elite level CFB. I think OSU would be favored over any other team going.
LSU has given up a LOT of points obviously at times. Clemson of late has been blowing out mediocre competition. They have that one near miss. The field after that gets increasingly flawed. Duh.
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Yeah I don't know, Clemson has been blowing out TERRIBLE competition. I don't think I've ever seen a conference as bad as the ACC is right now, at least not in the BCS/CFP era.
Maybe the fact that they've "been there before" will help them out. They certainly aren't going to be challenged in the ACC CCG so we know they're in.
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Yes, they have been playing rather poor opponents, but they have looked good doing it. I THINK they are competitive. We'll see.
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Yup, that's why they play the games!
Although honestly, I couldn't tell you the last time I watched a CFP game. Maybe once in the 5 years or so that it's been around? We're always camping during the week between Christmas and New Year's when they tend to be played.
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I don't watch much of any other sport, baseball is becoming a bit of an exception, but I would watch part of a game a week in summer if I am lazy.
DOING just about anything is better than WATCHING just about anything.
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Well there you have it, Utah is out of the discussion.
It's OU's spot to take now, free and clear. Can they avoid the upset?
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Yeah, it's pretty settled other than seeding obviously. In most years it will not be so clear and obvious.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ELSkp5wWkAE4SOQ?format=jpg&name=900x900)
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Lately, facts have not mattered much to ESPN where Georgia is concerned.
Besides, anybody knows that any SEC team can beat its equivalent team in the Big 12. No proof is necessary. It just goes without saying.
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Huh, my recollection, which is bad, is different. I could have sworn UGA lost to Texas last year.
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I mean, these guys aren't reporting on holy wars in the Middle East, but it seems like some basic ability to fact-check should be required for their jobs.
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Maybe UGA did actually win, and it was reported incorrectly earlier this year.
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Hey man, beating your fine Georgia team is the only good thing Texas has done in decade. Please just let us have it...
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I'm just covering all the possible alternatives.
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fake news