CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on October 30, 2017, 09:02:46 AM
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MSU opens only +7.5?
Am I crazy or does that feel WAY too low?
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Vegas anticpating that PSU will be pretty banged up after the last 2 weeks? We did have a lot of players get hurt vs. OSU.
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I dunno,. Michigan State is a good team. I think they can D up with Penn State a little bit. But not sure they have enough offense make it a great game.
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MSU opens only +7.5?
Am I crazy or does that feel WAY too low?
It all depends on how PSU responds. That was a tough loss. To lose like that by 1 point on the last poession. Can be soul crushing and hang around in the psyche of the team for awhile. Especially in a game of that magnitude. PSU won that they would've basically been a playoff lock and just rolling. Most important thing for them is not letting Ohio State beat them twice.
I think they are going to have a little bit of a hangover and Sparty will keep it close but PSU will pull away late due to having some offensive fire power that MSU lacks.
I think that line is about right. I expect PSU to win but it'll be pretty close.
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MSU opens only +7.5?
Am I crazy or does that feel WAY too low?
Yes, I don't know how this isn't minimum 11 point spread. I have a feeling by the time the game starts it will be 9-10. maybe it's the Dantonio factor, that dude is a baller as a DOG.
MSU has a pretty pathetic offense, however, I would imagine they are looking at 10-17 points again.
With that being said, the Penn St offensive line has really struggled, at least looking at Barkleys running numbers, most teams have held him in check. he's had some monster plays, but there isn't that consistent run game.
so, it comes down to Mcsorely again, and he's been pretty dang good the past 2 years. my early feel is Penn St rebounds, and wins something like 31-13.
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To lose like that by 1 point on the last poession.
Technically it was the 3rd to last possession... Last possession OSU needed a 1st down before doing the victory line up. 2nd to last possession PSU did a 4 and out from the 41 with a minute 48 and 2 time outs on the clock. 3rd to last possession OSU took it's 1st lead of the game.
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MSU opens only +7.5?
Am I crazy or does that feel WAY too low?
Yes, I don't know how this isn't minimum 11 point spread. I have a feeling by the time the game starts it will be 9-10. maybe it's the Dantonio factor, that dude is a baller as a DOG.
MSU has a pretty pathetic offense, however, I would imagine they are looking at 10-17 points again.
With that being said, the Penn St offensive line has really struggled, at least looking at Barkleys running numbers, most teams have held him in check. he's had some monster plays, but there isn't that consistent run game.
so, it comes down to Mcsorely again, and he's been pretty dang good the past 2 years. my early feel is Penn St rebounds, and wins something like 31-13.
Really the offense looked quite a bit better moving the ball, they just need to finish drives. Three drives in, probably should have been 21-0, but they fumbled at the 5, and got way too conservative, kicking on 4th and inches, when Northwestern's defense had done nothing to slow them down. Hopefully that was a big step forward, and the next step obviously is finishing those drives.
I pointed out in the SOC thread to have 200 yards in the 1st quarter, and only be up 7-0 was a very ominous sign, and that it reminded me a lot of the Illinois game last year.
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Penn St.
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This game has the makings of a nasty tilt.MSU @ home after a tough loss.Lions finish facing the beasts of the east 2nd straight on the road.Both squads lost by an ice cold dagger wanting to right the ship & conquer a piece.Fur's gonna fly
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MSU opens only +7.5?
Am I crazy or does that feel WAY too low?
At least one numerical system (S&P+) has MSU as only a 4.5-point dog. PSU's success rate (measure of ability to move downfield) got smashed by OSU. Part of the reason it was so close was the ST stuff, which isn't consistent. Mix in that and MSU's quiet rise, plus the location, drives down the line.
(Also puts a dent in a lot of the "soft factor" theories)
MSU is a beautiful half-team right now. No. 6 on D, 95 on O.
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The stat has been repeated all week. Michigan State is 10-3 against the spread and 6-7 outright the last 13 times they've been a touchdown or more underdog. And if there is a setup for that to repeat itself, it's here. The Spartans are coming off a game where they missed opportunity after opportunity to put their foot on Northwestern's throat early, while Penn State may have a massive letdown after letting perhaps the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff birth gag away in the final quarter in Columbus. Lost in the shuffle has been that while Saquon Barkley continues to be a special teams threat, he hasn't really been a huge factor in the offense in over a month. He's always a threat to break the big play, but on a down to down basis, he's been downright bad. He had 56 rushing yards against Indiana; 75 against Northwestern, with all but 23 coming on one play; 108 against Michigan, with all but 39 coming on one play; and 44 against Ohio State with all but 8 coming on one play. Over those four games, he has 158 yards on three long runs; and 125 over his other 69 (1.8 ypc). Teams are loading up against him, and forcing McSorley to beat them. Might not be the best for Barkley's Heisman candidacy, but for Penn State's offense, that's worked just fine. McSorley has had a QBR of 93.2 and 90.1 over Penn State's last two games. Michigan State tried to do the same last week against Northwestern, and while they held Justin Jackson to 41 yards on 2.4 ypc, Clayton Thorson went wild, completing 69% of his passes for 356 yards. Penn State has proven more than happy to take what defenses will give them. At only 70.6 ypg allowed, the Spartans run defense has done just fine, but the disappearance of the pass rush against Northwestern exposed a lot of the holes in the secondary, particularly at the safety position. Thorson didn't attack the corners, Scott and Layne, too much, he simply found mismatches on safeties, particularly Morrisey, and exploited it again and again. Penn State has far more weapons, and McSorley showed against Michigan just what he'll do against that defensive strategy. I'd be hard pressed to think Dantonio will use the same strategy, after seeing it fail so miserably last week, but he doesn't have many options back there. The cornerback position is good, but there are only two trustworthy guys back there, and only three worth playing, and safety is a mess. It's on the front to get back to getting pressure. The secondary didn't play any worse last week, they simply didn't have what had previously been a great pass rush, helping them. Penn State's offensive line hasn't been good in recent weeks, but Northwestern's had arguably been the worst in the conference. I think Penn State might get off to a sluggish start in a noon letdown game, but unless Michigan State suddenly rediscovers how to run block, I don't like their chances of Lewerke in a gunslinging contest with McSorley.
PENN STATE 28, MICHIGAN STATE 17
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ELA's prediction sounds pretty spot on, that score seems legit.
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I hope so.
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Lewerke coming into his own quite nicely, and I'll put our WRs up against anyone's in the Big Ten, all with 2+ years left.
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If LJ comes back with the right mindset, the offense could be special next season. Defense equally so.
Chemistry is so friggin important.
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Well, dantonio has my vote for BIG coach of the year thus far, even if they lose in Columbus next week, which right now they'd prob only be a 3-5 point dog (great for dantonio).
Defense seems pretty legit. 1 game from going back to Indy, you gotta like their chances.
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Well, dantonio has my vote for BIG coach of the year thus far
Probably by default. Not sure anyone else is really in the discussion. If Purdue hadn't dropped the Rutgers and Nebraska games, maybe Brohm.
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Poor 3-9 Sparty last year now controls thier own destiny in the Big Tem East. Good luck next week.
Go Green, Go White!
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That was MSUs 8th win over an AP top 10 team in the last five years. Only Alabama has more.
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I think what is shocking is how seemingly thin their roster is after the purge.Could be the Fav to win the east next season
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That was MSUs 8th win over an AP top 10 team in the last five years. Only Alabama has more.
Pretty amazing stat when you think about it. Not sure there is a coach who gets his team up and playing harder than Dantonio. Heck of a coach. I'd love to see Caldwell get fired and Mark coaching the Lions. He runs pro style schemes on offense and defense. I doubt he'll ever leave MSU but I really do think he's one of the few college coaches who would be successful in the NFL.
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More often than not (and everyone knows the nots), Dantonio teams bring it in big games. That record against top 10 teams is amazing.
Put up the damn statue.
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I think what is shocking is how seemingly thin their roster is after the purge.Could be the Fav to win the east next season
They start three seniors and 6 juniors. Almost the whole roster returns next year, and more than half the starting lineup could still be around in 2019
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Numbers had the game closer than most expected. Then MSU has a little turnover luck, and boom, glory.
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another monsoon, another MSU victory.
Is Dantonio a witch doctor? how does he get every game in this type of weather?
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another monsoon, another MSU victory.
Is Dantonio a witch doctor? how does he get every game in this type of weather?
I'm still confused, Michigan was trailing against MSU, but would have come back and won, if not for the weather. MSU was trailing PSU, but only came back because of the weather. Funny how that works.
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Monsoon in Columbus in 2015, Ann Arbor in 2017, freakish and improbably last minute win in Ann Arbor in 2015, and eternal lightening delay last weekend.
Dantonio must be doing something supernatural.
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I'm still confused, Michigan was trailing against MSU, but would have come back and won, if not for the weather. MSU was trailing PSU, but only came back because of the weather. Funny how that works.
Both teams passed for 400 in the weather. Both teams dropped some crucial passes - perhaps due to weather, who knows. Neither team made a clear weather related turnover. In short, weather didn't mean squat. Tougher team won. Just like the tougher team won in that other weather game.
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Both teams passed for 400 in the weather. Both teams dropped some crucial passes - perhaps due to weather, who knows. Neither team made a clear weather related turnover. In short, weather didn't mean squat. Tougher team won. Just like the tougher team won in that other weather game.
I hate to say it, but you are spot on. Penn State just did not look like they wanted to play. O-line was terrible, defense looked slow to react.
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I hate to say it, but you are spot on. Penn State just did not look like they wanted to play. O-line was terrible, defense looked slow to react.
I do think there is something to sitting out that delay in your own locker room vs. a visitor locker room. Granted it's not like it's Purdue's, but sti:91:ll.
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I do think there is something to sitting out that delay in your own locker room vs. a visitor locker room. Granted it's not like it's Purdue's, but sti:91:ll.
Someone alert The Madman.
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I'm still confused, Michigan was trailing against MSU, but would have come back and won, if not for the weather. MSU was trailing PSU, but only came back because of the weather. Funny how that works.
Damn you're agreeable today had to point that out to some fanboys.Then they brought up how the weather saved Sparty 2015 in C-Bus.Then I had to point out MSU was short 2 good lineman and a starting QB.Got pissy questioning my allegiance.Told 'em to put that thing out before they burned a hole in their shirts