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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 22, 2019, 05:13:43 PM

Title: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 22, 2019, 05:13:43 PM
Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-12-12216/). 

Votes through me, 16 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/MkarrJG.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/FZn8dDc.png)
Graph of rankings so far this year:
(https://i.imgur.com/1OLgnq3.jpg)
Change since the beginning of the year (aka COTY Prediction table):
(https://i.imgur.com/Tc8cTu8.jpg)
Vote distribution:
(https://i.imgur.com/wWx2L0Y.jpg)
Schedule/performance table:
(https://i.imgur.com/u0OVDxR.png)
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 23, 2019, 05:45:26 PM
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Minnesota
4. Iowa
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan
7. Illinois
8. Nebraska
9. Indiana
10. Purdue
11. Michigan State
12. Northwestern
13. Maryland
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: TyphonInc on November 23, 2019, 05:48:37 PM
Barring an upset I'm going to stick with this.

1) Ohio State
2) Wisconsin (+1)
3) Penn State (-1)
4) Michigan

5) Iowa
6) Minnesota

7) Indiana
8) Michigan State (+1)
9) Illinois (-1)

10) Purdue
11) Nebraska
12) Maryland
13) Northwestern
14) Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: LittlePig on November 23, 2019, 08:17:43 PM
Hmm...
I think this weekend just did enough to confirm my order I had last week.  Ok, PSU did play OSU closer than anybody else but benefited from a couple turnovers.  I still don't believe there is enough to elevate PSU to #2.  Mich confirmed that Indy is not one of the top teams.  ILL's bubble finally burst this week after a magical run.
P.S.  Is MD even trying anymore? 


1. OSU
2.  Wiscy
3.  Minn
4.  PSU
5. Mich
6.  Iowa
7.  Indy
8.  ILL
9.  MSU
10. Pur
11.  Neb
12.  NW
13.  MD
14.  Rut
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: MichiFan87 on November 23, 2019, 08:20:17 PM
1. Ohio State - Of course.
2. Michigan - I think they can win next weekend. I'll be there....
3. Penn State - Played OSU better than anyone else to be sure.
4. Wisconsin - Not sure they'll beat the Gophers, but they're still dominant at home.
5. Minnesota - Losing to Iowa is still a bad look.
6. Iowa - Another good but unimpressive win.
7. Michigan State - Got a convincing win against a bad team as expected.
8. Indiana - Today's game convinced me more than ever that they've just taken advantage of a weak schedule.
9. Illinois - They kept it close in Iowa City to be sure.
10. Nebraska - Can they beat Iowa???
11. Purdue - Better than the rest, still...
12. Maryland - Now they're officially terrible
13. Northwestern - Still winless in BigTen play
14. Rutgers - As always
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: RibEye on November 23, 2019, 11:20:25 PM
Unchanged from last week:

1. OSU - Margin of victory probably should have been greater against PSU
2. Michigan - Out of the playoff hunt obviously but I'm not sure there are four better teams currently
3. Wisconsin - Expect them to represent the West in the CCG
4. Minnesota
5. Penn State - Out gained in 6 of 11 games this season
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
8. Illinois
9. MSU
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Maryland
13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers

With unbalanced conference schedules, records can be deceiving. I ranked them based on who I would least want to play on a neutral field.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: Hawkinole on November 23, 2019, 11:58:52 PM
1. Ohio State

2. Minnesota
3. Wisconsin
4 Michigan
5. Penn State
6. Iowa

7. Indiana
8. Illinois
9. Michigan State
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Maryland
13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers


I flipped Michigan and Penn State. I suspect Wisconsin falls to 5th next week, but we will see. There is a strong argument for flipping Purdue and Nebraska. I have not reached that point based on this week. In the head-to-head, Purdue defeated Nebraska (at Purdue).

We finally have a meaningful rivalry game in rivalry week in the BTW.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 24, 2019, 08:00:21 AM
1 Buckeyes
2 Wolverines
3 Nittany Lions
4 Badgers
5 Golden Gophers
6 Hawkeyes
7 Fighting Illini
8 Hoosiers
9 Spartans
10 Boilermakers
11 Cornhuskers
12 Northwestern
13 Terrapins
14 Scarlet Knights
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: MaximumSam on November 24, 2019, 08:01:35 AM
1. Ohio State: Game of fumblerooski meant the defense had to really carry the load late in the game, and they aced that call.  Offensive game plan made people think of 1998 MSU, but still - they outgained PSU by nearly 200 yards and the game was close due to two very poorly times fumbles which resulted in a 14-0 swing in the score.  On to Michigan.

2. Michigan: With the offense no longer being a liability, Michigan finally looks right.  One area of concern - the rushing game has been substandard for two straight games.  Could be by design, hey they passed for a million yards both games and a good offense takes what is given.  Still, dropping back a bunch of times against Chase Young and company is not ideal.

3. Minnesota: Took down Northwestern and now get a home game with Wisconsin to decide the West.  

4. Wisconsin: Whupped Purdue to the tune of over 600 yards and over 400 yards rushing.  We have a live one next week and I am here for it.

5. Penn State: Were whipped in the first half but showed a ton of resolve in the second.  They have a backup quarterback, and turning to more of a zone read rush offense gave them some life and showed something they haven't been great at this year - moving the sticks consistently.  Keeping an eye on that.

6. Iowa: Turned back Illinois, which is actually an accomplishment this year.

7. Indiana: Not quite enough to keep it going against Michigan despite a strong start.  Injuries really hurt them in the game and they are still a strong squad.  They head to Purdue for a shot at 8-4.

8. Illinois: Actually quite competitive against Iowa in a pretty even games hurt by their 3 turnovers.  Thhey welcome Northwestern for a shot at a winning record for the first time in a while.

9. Nebraska: Not a season they would love, but they get Iowa at home for a shot at a bowl game.

10. Michigan State: Same except they get Maryland.

11. Purdue: Same except they can't get to guaranteed bowl status.  Do they still have those 5-7 bowl game qualifiers?  Might be an attractive choice, but that requires they beat the Hoosiers.

12. Northwestern: Looking to next year.

13. Maryland: Not sure where they go from here.  Can they keep going through this with Locksley?

14. Rutgers: Schiano part deux is on the way.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2019, 08:26:24 AM
Nice to see the three Is being competitive, especially Illinois.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: Badger1969 on November 24, 2019, 08:56:27 AM
1. Ohio St


2a. Wisconsin  ( this will all be settled out this week for 2 - 5 )
2b. Minnesota 
2c. Michigan
2d. Penn St.


6. Iowa
7. Indiana
8. Illinois 
9. Nebraska
10. Mich St
11. Purdue 


12. Northwestern 
13. Maryland 
14. Rutgers



Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: FearlessF on November 24, 2019, 10:56:02 AM
1. OSU
2. PSU
3. Minnesota
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
9. Illinois
10. MSU
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Maryland
----
13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: Cincydawg on November 24, 2019, 11:02:06 AM
1.  OSU   (LSU)

2-5  PSU Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota  could all beat each other about half the time I think  (Bama, UGA, Auburn, UF)

6-8  The three Is, able to give the 2-5s a fight  (Tenn, A&M, MSU)

9-11 Not very good  (Mizzou, Ole MIss, USCe)

12-14 Remarkably bad, but better than Arkansas (Vandy, Arky, UK)
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: iahawk15 on November 24, 2019, 02:46:15 PM
1) Ohio State (1)
2) Michigan (3)
3) Wisconsin (2)
4) Penn State (4)
5) Minnesota (5)
6) Iowa (6)
7) Indiana (7)
8) Illinois (8)
9) Purdue (9)
10) Nebraska (11)
11) Michigan State (10)
12) Maryland (12)
13) Northwestern (13)
14) Rutgers (14)
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: LittlePig on November 24, 2019, 04:14:41 PM
1.  OSU  (LSU)

2-5  PSU Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota  could all beat each other about half the time I think  (Bama, UGA, Auburn, UF)

6-8  The three Is, able to give the 2-5s a fight  (Tenn, A&M, MSU)

9-11 Not very good  (Mizzou, Ole MIss, USCe)

12-14 Remarkably bad, but better than Arkansas (Vandy, Arky, UK)
I get the sense you are trying to communicate that the SEC and Big Ten are similar,  but I am not sure if I am completing following what you are trying say.  Maybe if you actually listed the Big Ten teams you think are in each group, it would be easier to follow.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 24, 2019, 06:34:17 PM
1) Ohio State: not as dominant as I expected.
2) Penn State: expected loss; played reasonably well.
3) Minnesota: this weekend is huge.
4) Wisconsin: defense has to be better to beat Minnesota.
5) Michigan: upset minded.
6) Iowa: clearly.
7) ? Indiana, I guess: expected loss.
8) Illinois: expected loss.
9) Michigan State: everyone beats Rutgers.
10) Purdue: hung in there against the Badgers.
11) Northwestern: hung in there against Minnesota.
12) Nebraska: wow, Maryland sucks.
13) Maryland: wow, Maryland sucks.
14) State University of Doesn't Play Football.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2019, 08:18:38 PM
I get the sense you are trying to communicate that the SEC and Big Ten are similar,  but I am not sure if I am completing following what you are trying say.  Maybe if you actually listed the Big Ten teams you think are in each group, it would be easier to follow.
B1G > SEC

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: Temp430 on November 25, 2019, 07:05:34 AM
1. Ohio State
2. Minnesota
3. Penn State
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
8. Illinois
9. Purdue
10. Nebraska
11, Michigan State
12. Maryland
13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on November 25, 2019, 08:10:16 AM
1. Ohio State - Some untimely fumbles made this a lot closer than it should have been. But turnovers are part of the game. They need to get those cleaned up before The Game!
---

2. Minnesota - We'll find out Sat if they belong here. 
3. Penn State - Played well, just didn't have the horses to pull it off.
4. Wisconsin - Gave up some yards to Purdue early, but the outcome was never in doubt. 
5. Michigan - Good showing against IU. Now comes their test. 
6. Iowa - Good win at home. 
---

7. Indiana - Best of the rest
8. Illinois - Definitely a much improved team. 
9. Purdue - Really, not a bad season considering all of the injuries this year. Their freshmen are getting a ton of experience early and should help them in the next couple of seasons.
10. Michigan State - Did what they should against Rutgers. 
11. Nebraska - Took out some of their frustrations against MD.
12. Northwestern - Actually showed some offense, that's an improvement. 
13. Maryland - Just mailing it in now.
14. Rutgers - Still being Rutgers.

Like everyone else, I am having a hard time sorting 2-6. But this looks as good an order as I can come up with. This weekend will help with Wis and Minn. 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on November 25, 2019, 09:46:28 AM
1.  Ohio State
2.  Minnesota
3.  Penn State
4.  Wisconsin
5.  Michigan
6.  Iowa
7.  Illinois
8.  Indiana
9.  Michigan State
10.  Purdue
11.  Nebraska
12.  Maryland
13.  Rutgers 
14.  Northwestern
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: HawkFrenzy on November 25, 2019, 10:15:23 AM

13. Maryland - Just mailing it in now.



"Our goal was to try to make them quit, and I think we did a good job at that," quarterback Josh Jackson (https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4037603/josh-jackson) said after the Terrapins rolled to a surprisingly easy 63-20 victory. (Edit to give source: from ESPN Recap (https://www.espn.com/college-football/undefined))

This was after the Syracuse thumping. How ironic.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 25, 2019, 11:32:53 AM
Rankings based on comparative average performance against the eight B1G teams that each B1G team has played:


Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 26, 2019, 09:09:33 AM
7. Indiana
9. Illinois
10. MSU
10. Purdue
I read this as:


Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 26, 2019, 09:30:08 AM
A closer look at some of the more hotly disputed slots:

First Maryland/Northwestern for 12th/13th:


I don't even see this as being close.  Both are obviously bad teams, but Northwestern has been competitive for the most part while UMD just hasn't.  As I see it, NU is substantially better.  Question to you guys who have UMD ranked ahead of NU:  What are you seeing to justify that?
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 26, 2019, 09:30:21 AM

Second Indiana/Illinois for 7th/8th:

I see this one is being REALLY close.  There will be two more common opponents after this weekend:

In their other three games each, IU played pretty much as expected against tOSU, better than expected against PSU, and worse than expected against UMD.  Illinois played pretty much as expected against MN and IA but they have that great win over Wisconsin.  

In my rankings I'll give it to IL this week based on their win over Wisconsin.  
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 26, 2019, 09:51:21 AM
Finally, the 2-5 conundrum.  So far there are 15 voters and 2-5 are all within 0.5:


In all the years I have been doing this compilation I don't think there have ever been four teams that close this late in the season.  

It is close for a reason.  In games against each other, the home team has won by one score with the exception of Wisconsin's big win over Michigan.  

Only two have played #1 (PSU, UW).  Both lost in Columbus, PSU was closer than UW*.  

All four have won all games against everybody else in the conference except:

That is just really tough to sort out.  

*Wisconsin and Penn State vs Ohio State:
Looking at final scores, the Badgers lost by 31 while the Nittany Lions only lost by 11.  Actually watching the games, they felt completely different:

The tOSU/Wisconsin game felt like a close game for most of the first three quarters.  Ohio State led by only 10 at the half, by only a FG early in the third quarter and by only 10 until late in the third quarter.  Then it turned into a blowout with Ohio State scoring 21 points in the last 22 minutes to turn a competitive 10 point game into a 31 point wipe out.  

The tOSU/PSU game felt like a blowout early.  The Buckeyes led 14-0 at the half (bigger than the lead over UW) and 21-0 early in the third quarter (again bigger than at the same time against UW).  Then PSU scored 17 points in a four minutes to turn what looked like it was shaping up to be a complete blowout into a competitive four point game.  After that Ohio State scored the final TD to achieve the 11 point final margin.  

As I see it:

Thus, I think the order for 2-5 should be:

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 26, 2019, 09:58:39 AM

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: FearlessF on November 26, 2019, 10:36:24 AM
I read this as:
  • 7 Indiana
  • 8 Illinois
  • 9 Michigan State
  • 10 Purdue



I did it again and once again you are correct
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 26, 2019, 04:35:19 PM
Results posted, votes through me, 16 voters.  

Changes this week:


The changes for PSU, MN, UW, and M are not as big as they appear.  None of those teams' average rankings changed by more than 0.84 but they are all so close that even minuscule changes in average ranking can result in big changes in ranking position.  

Sometimes it helps to look a little deeper:
Michigan fell a spot to fifth despite the fact that their average didn't change.  Minnesota improved slightly and passed them.  The odd thing about Michigan is that they actually have the most 2nd place votes but they have zero third place votes.  As I mentioned not long ago wrt Minnesota, it is very unusual to have a void in between groups of votes.  In this case I think I can see why:  If you look at the season as a whole without weighting recency it is pretty much impossible to justify ranking Michigan second.  They got flat out obliterated by Wisconsin so you almost have to rank the Badgers higher than the Wolverines.  My supposition here is that the five people who voted Michigan #2 ( @MichiFan87 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=24) , RibEye, @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) , @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) , and @iahawk15 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=874) ) must be effectively arguing that Michigan is an improved team.  There is some pretty good justification for that.  Ever since falling behind 21-0 at PSU the Wolverines have been on an absolute tear.  The other 11 voters are obviously unconvinced by the recent tear so they have the Wolverines fourth, fifth, or sixth.  

Sorting out the 2-6 conundrum this weekend:

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 26, 2019, 04:41:02 PM
This weekends' games by Power Ranking:


Should be a fun weekend!

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: Hawkinole on November 26, 2019, 07:22:25 PM
I enjoy reading the charts each week.

I do not understand vote distribution. If you have time, please explain "vote distribution."
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 26, 2019, 10:59:12 PM
I enjoy reading the charts each week.

I do not understand vote distribution. If you have time, please explain "vote distribution."
It is the number of votes at each spot for each team represented graphically. Unfortunately, sometimes it is hard to read:

Far left, Ohio State is represented by gray dots on a red line. Ohio State has all 16 votes for #1.

Next, at #2 the top vote-getter is Michigan represented by yellow dots on a blue line. They have five votes for #2.

Next Minnesota is represented by yellow dots on a maroonish line and has four votes for #2.

You can't see it, but Penn State is represented by white dots on a blue line and also has four votes for #2.

Finally, Wisconsin is represented by white dots on a red line and has three votes for #2.

5 (M) + 4 (MN) + 4 (PSU) + 3 (UW) = 16 so all second place votes are accounted for. 

Next at #3 MN and PSU are again tied with six votes each while UW has four and 6+6+4=16.

At #4 UW has half of the votes (8), M has three, PSU & MN have two each while IA has one. Once again all 16 voters are accounted for because 8+3+2+2+1=16.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: ELA on November 27, 2019, 07:45:58 AM



Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: ELA on November 27, 2019, 07:53:04 AM
Updated Massey composite computer ranking, with 113 rankings (last week in parenthesis)





Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 29, 2019, 08:52:01 AM
I added in @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's vote and since things are so close it changed the order a bit.  




Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: LittlePig on November 29, 2019, 09:07:05 AM
I added in @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's vote and since things are so close it changed the order a bit. 


  • PSU is now alone in 2nd
  • MN/UW are now tied for 3rd/4th
  • NU is now alone in 12th
  • UMD is now alone in 13th



You might as well just say that PSU, Minn and Wisc are in a virtual tie for 2nd.

I would think whoever wins the Minn/Wisc would gain enough votes to separate themselves from PSU. 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 29, 2019, 12:41:10 PM
You might as well just say that PSU, Minn and Wisc are in a virtual tie for 2nd.

I would think whoever wins the Minn/Wisc would gain enough votes to separate themselves from PSU.
Yep, and Michigan and even Iowa are not all that far behind. 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 13
Post by: FearlessF on December 01, 2019, 10:34:55 AM
1. OSU
2. PSU
3. Wisconsin
4. Minnesota
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
9. Illinois
10. MSU
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Maryland
----
13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers