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The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: Drew4UTk on October 29, 2017, 01:46:13 PM

Title: the tale of three programs
Post by: Drew4UTk on October 29, 2017, 01:46:13 PM
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“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of Run/Pass/Option purpose built offense, it was the age of confused routes and backs running apprehensively, it was the epoch of confidence, it was the epoch of disarray, it was a season of dominating defense, it was the season of excruciating penalties, it was the autumn of dominance, it was a autumn of loss, they have everything before them, they have everything behind them…”
Georgia has arguably the best starting Defense in the nation.  Tennessee is the epitome of porous.  Florida has a defensive line and a supporting cast that appear alien in comparison.

Georgia has, hands down, the best backfield in the game right now.  Tennessee has a great back that only scored some ganja in the last four games, and got penalized for it.  Florida has a bunch of suspensions with felonies hanging over their heads.

Georgia has a second year coach the team believes in and has assimilated fully into his vision.  Tennessee has a really ‘good guy’ in that position that can’t control his team nor draft a play on paper or in execution to save his life (or his job, at least).  Florida has a fisherman who is trying his level best to hold together not only his team but their entire fan base, and seems to be losing control.

Shall this continue?  Likely, no.  Y’all get the point.

This is a tale of superior Athletic directors in stark comparison to those better suited for managing a small chain of convenience stores.  Foley is a legend.  His decisions and process while directing the University of Florida ought to be taught to aspiring sports managers in classes across the land.  McGarity at Georgia no doubt learned from him while tenured under him.  The new guy on the daisy covered hill needs a crash course, and it can only be hoped that he took no lead from Hart or Hamilton.  This aspect of a program is crucial, and likely at least as important as the head ball coach.  Foley’s successor, though, well… As explained by Ulysses Everett McGill, “we’re in a tight spot, boys“.

These three teams have always been relevant in the SEC.  They’ve always been nationally relevant.  The match between UF and UT following re-alignment determined whether UGA had a shot at the SEC East Championship every single season, and was a perpetual circumstance where they rarely if ever controlled their own destiny.  Little did we know a damn fine DB who’s fame was suppressed by his own teammate Champ Bailey would return- after studying under arguably the best coach ever in Saban, to his roots and take them to a path divergent to the prior described tradition.  I disagreed with Richt being set sailing south, but… Both have gained from this decision by the mentor of Foley, McGarity.

Are we seeing a pattern?  Mentors.  I think the circumstance rates an inspection.

Foley, arguably the best AD ever to direct efforts at a major college, led with McGarity as his assistant for a sizable portion of his tenure.  Smart, a great DB for Georgia opposite maybe one of their greatest in Champ Bailey, turns coach in 99 and bounces around to ultimately land with Nick Saban- just to return to UGA as a first time HC, and takes it deep into the fourth quarter of the second major rivalry game to shutting both UF and UT out.  Not only did his team ‘win’, they destroyed UT and UF.  Kirby Smart and McGarity may be the cause for UT and UF searching for coaches, in the end- and is certainly something the UGA crowd will lock onto in effort to ridicule rivals.

Where is UT’s lineage?  Where is UF’s?  What was the thought process of either when they hired both AD’s and Coaches?  For some reason, images of coins being dropped in a perverse slot machine appears in my minds eye.  There is a chance, right?  The chances of a great AD and Coach dropping out that machine’s shoot register on a scale, I’m sure- but are nowhere near the odds of the same coming from not only careful study, but from the security of hiring alumnus.

Where does this leave us?

Tee Martin for HC of UT, and Tim Tebow for HC of UF-  Phil Fulmer as AD of UT, and Steve Spurrier as AD of UF.  I just had to type that.  It’s a funny thought, but not so far fetched on one side as the other.

When it’s all said and done, though, peeling off the bandaides and looking at the injuries of UT and UF will likely render a prognosis that they should follow the path presented by UGA if their intent is to contend, and not just make bank.
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 29, 2017, 06:26:00 PM
In what respect are you giving Foley so much credit?  As a PR leader and spokesman for the university, yes, he was a flat out jedi-ninja and he routinely owned our guy in every such phase imaginable over the years.  As a GM?  In football, Foley hired Zook, Urban, Muschamp, and McElwain.  One of those things is not like the other.  

Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Drew4UTk on October 29, 2017, 06:30:06 PM
He knew when and where to cut his losses. 
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 29, 2017, 06:37:04 PM
I mean, I guess, but that seems like a pretty low bar to clear.  
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Drew4UTk on October 29, 2017, 07:02:34 PM
there is actually, by my reckoning, a little bit more skill involved than meets the eye.  

you gotta figure, the contract has to be structured in a way that makes the cut less painful to the program but good enough a high caliber coach would still accept.  you also have to figure that most coaches fired from prominent positions such as these rarely resurface at schools near the caliber- ever.  their careers are pretty much shot afterward, except as assistants or coordinators.  the schools hire these coaches based on either a tremendous record or a tremendous upside they believe to exist but isn't proven- all of which fold into the bidding and the contract.  

Foley had a way with spotting the right man for the job, and an equally important talent of knowing when to cut them- not only in football, but all the sports in gainsville.  to add to this, he was sharp enough to fence off the boosters and/or leverage them to get what he needed.  

Missachamp was and is a nuisance to the game so far as i'm concerned.  by my reckoning he played THE prominent role at the demise of Texas- laying threats about the OC leaving his D on the field too long and costing him bonuses- leading to Brown firing the OC, and then messychump leaving anyway... his upside is he is a helluva defensive mind and coach... his downside is he's a vector for drama... I have no idea what happened with zook- it seemed a bad idea all around- but it didn't last long enough to cause major damage... and that's the crux of it- Foley lassoed and then structured these 'chance' hires in such a way they couldn't hurt the program but so much... even Meyer was a chance hire and structured similarly.  Had not Saban sent him home with a rupture, he'd still have a massive contract with UF i've little doubt. 

then..... UT.... the man-child Lame Kitten and his daddy.  then- Derrick friggin' Dooley- who had zero business ever being offered- the AD's Hamilton and Hart did more damage to UT than any coach.  By the time Dooley washed, the coffers were dry and the boosters were rabid- i personally believe the only coach who would come to UT was one of these 'diamonds in the rough' types (read: only one UT could afford) and even then their agents warned against them entertaining offers from the likes of Hart.  So.. because of the climate fostered by the AD's, there was (and still may be) little opportunity to bring in the real fix.  

Foley could have had his choice of available coach because of the way he's managed the program. Hart or Hamilton, not so much.  McGarity, son of Georgia and student of Foley, has likely hired his last head football coach... The contrasts between these schools athletic departments can't be greater.  
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: EastAthens on October 29, 2017, 10:42:06 PM
Kiffin to the Gators is an absolutely terrifying thought to me. 
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 30, 2017, 01:34:08 AM
In what respect are you giving Foley so much credit?  As a PR leader and spokesman for the university, yes, he was a flat out jedi-ninja and he routinely owned our guy in every such phase imaginable over the years.  As a GM?  In football, Foley hired Zook, Urban, Muschamp, and McElwain.  One of those things is not like the other.  


Maybe in that Florida winning the SEC All-Sports trophy was a forgone conclusion each and every year.  National championships in basically every sport in the last 10 years - football, basketball, tennis, swimming, soccer, track, volleyball.  Baseball won one with a manager he hired.....as a GM over an entire sports program, he was the best.  Hands down.
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Drew4UTk on October 30, 2017, 09:04:46 AM
Kiffin to the Gators is an absolutely terrifying thought to me.
ol' Lame Kitten has matured since his USCw day's, and... i may be fair to say he is a minion of Saban to a degree at this point.  Left with a good DC (shannon?) and the resources at UF, it is indeed frightening thought for foes. 
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Nashville4UGA on October 30, 2017, 09:40:28 AM
Let's not give McGarity too much credit here. He was told when to fire Richt and who to hire in his place by the liquor barrons in GA. 

UGA's other sports teams are in shambles for the most part. He is not popular with UGA fans....at.....all.  
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Drew4UTk on October 30, 2017, 11:17:21 AM
@Nashville4UGA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1621) , i was dumbfounded when he cut Richt.  

I get it, don't get me wrong- richt's issue by my reckoning is he was perpetually almost good enough... a ball bounce this way, an injury not happen, and he goes to rep the east at least 3 out of 5- but.... having built a formula 'almost' good enough kinda causes pause when it comes time to 'trash' that formula and start again... his being 'almost' wasn't going to change in the SECe.  Having a 'bad' formula is a LOT easier to identify and repair.  He didn't have that, but instead something that showed promise season in and season out- except for a ball bouncing funny, or an injury.... 

turns out McGarity was right- not only for Richt, who bounced back admirably, but also for UGA- whom you can imagine I don't like too much being a Tennessee fan, but (now) just like Bama- in order to retain my 'man card of objective integrity', has to be acknowledged as 'one helluva great job' done by Smart, and something to be jealous about.  

i should have emphasized my comment in response to @MikeDeTiger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1588) 's comment paraphrased "why?" when I said "Foley knew how to fence off boosters and then turn around and use them to his advantage when needed".  McGarity, according to what you've said (and which i have no reason to doubt due to your proximity being far greater than mine) ought to try that, no? 
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Nashville4UGA on October 30, 2017, 12:17:58 PM
All i am saying is that McGartity didn't really try anything, we was told. He was nothing more than a puppet in the case of hiring Kirby. The "powers" that be had to act in order to get "their" guy before he ended up at South Carolina. 
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 30, 2017, 01:48:23 PM
Maybe in that Florida winning the SEC All-Sports trophy was a forgone conclusion each and every year.  National championships in basically every sport in the last 10 years - football, basketball, tennis, swimming, soccer, track, volleyball.  Baseball won one with a manager he hired.....as a GM over an entire sports program, he was the best.  Hands down.
I thought we were talking about football here.  3 of his 4 hires were duds by Florida standards.  
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 30, 2017, 09:56:34 PM
Okay, but not all duds are the same.  Not to defend these guys, but Zook and McElwain won 2/3 of their conference games, and Muschamp was over .500.  Foley didn't hire any Shulas, Dooleys, or Orgerons.  

And no, as we've seen, 2/3 of your conference games isn't good enough at Florida.  Now, Butch Jones is well under .500, has been there well over 3 years, and still has his job.  I'm not sure what UT is thinking.

Foley's good hire wasn't just good, it was epic.  2 MNCs, three 13-1 seasons out of four.  But even with that success, the job was too much for Meyer.  Makes what Spurrier did all the more amazing - 12 years in the pressure cooker that is Gainesville.  It takes a coach that is harder on himself than the fans could ever be to thrive for the long haul at UF.  A guy like Saban or Spurrier.  I don't know if the OSU gig is any easier, I guess time will tell.
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 30, 2017, 09:57:14 PM
And no, we're not just talking football here.  It's the athletic director, not the football director.
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Nashville4UGA on October 31, 2017, 12:31:22 PM
F.  Makes what Spurrier did all the more amazing - 12 years in the pressure cooker that is Gainesville.  
Spurrier is the one that created the pressure cooker in Gainsville.
The 20 years prior to Spurrier arriving UF was averaging 6.5 wins and 4.5 losses per year.  (5-15 vs UGA) It wasn't like they were a great program prior to him arriving.
in the 12 years he was the coach at UF he brought that up to an average of 10 wins/2 losses. (11-1 vs UGA)  And his offenses were just destroying defenses. 2 MNC appearances, 1 championship, 6 SEC titles.  
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 31, 2017, 12:52:44 PM
I'm pretty sure Drew is talking about football, thus all the other sports are irrelevant.

The only reason Muschamp and McElwain reached the records they did is because the east has been a tire fire since 2010.  Objectively, they did not put high-quality Florida teams on the field, sans probably 2012.  

Mind you, I'm not knocking Foley for the hires.  Actually it fits my belief that hiring football coaches is HARD, and you're not going to get it right at least as often as you hit a home run.  Fact is there just aren't many top level coaches out there.  Of the ones that exist, how many are interested in your particular gig?  Of those, how many are available when you are looking?  And beyond all of that, "fit" is a huge in cfb.  i.e., Bill Snyder is legitimately one of the best coaches in the game.  Could he do what he does better at a place like Florida with more resources?  I'm not so sure, and there are not shortage of similar examples that ended in failure.  It's almost a total crapshoot.  

So I don't really hold the hires against Foley.  My question is what makes him better at it than anyone else?  Hitting 1 out of 4 hires doesn't seem like a high benchmark for a place like Florida.  Meyer is an obvious bright spot, though it wasn't a long term solution.  When 75% of your hires are lackluster, I think it means you're not really any better at that part of the job than anyone else.  Drew has offered that he was better than others at knowing when to cut bait.  I agree, that's something.

I'm just spitballing and thinking out loud.  Foley's greatest acumen was always in the other areas that are not hiring football coaches, and those are huge.  In fact, given that hiring coaches is such a crapshoot, I wonder if I woudn't rather have the guy who's a brilliant CEO and okay at hiring people than a guy that's great at hiring (still going to hit with low frequency) and just an okay CEO for the dept.  

Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 31, 2017, 06:12:57 PM
Whether this was wrong or right for Florida remains to be seen, but it's hard to believe Tennessee has been beaten to the coaching market by Florida.  

UT is UTing this all up again.  

Still time to prove me wrong, but it looks like they're on track to remain champions of life.  

No, I'm not throwing stones.  I'm well aware that we just hired the worst coach in Ole Miss history.  

Which is really saying something.  
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Drew4UTk on October 31, 2017, 09:29:53 PM
Tennessee just can't get out of their own way...  I love 'em, but man- they make it tough.  

I've said elsewhere and I'll say again: this is it- if they whiff here, UT falls off to the wastelands of has-been programs.  They are rivaled only by Nebraska, who also has an opportunity to right the ship. It's fortunate for Nebraska that they are in the geographic void they're in- people will call themselves Huskers no matter their waning helmet status or not.  The two programs parallel each other to a huge degree in my mind.  When they fired Solich I thought "that was the dumbest...." and then UT hired Dooley.  They took that dubious prize right away from Nebraska. 

I can forgive them Kiffin 'the hire', but I can't forgive them the way they let him run things.  Kiffin was 'hot' at that point and everyone believed him another Meyer type- UT was mighty proud of themselves when he landed.  I CANNOT and WILL NOT forgive them Dooley.  Just. Plain. Stupid. by any measure.  I can forgive them Butch to a degree, as they had burned through some serious cash at that point, after basically giving Kiffin the keys to the vault and turning around- without and logic whatsoever- doing the same thing with dooley- they were broke and had an AD with a really bad (deserved) reputation nobody trusted or wanted to deal with.  CBJ was about as good as they could muster.  and, as far as program health, it's hella better now than it was.. seriously, it was that bad.  

that's ALL on the AD.  
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 31, 2017, 11:24:18 PM
I'm holding off judgement on Smart as a success until after next year, when he doesn't have 2 stud RBs.  If the OL is that good, they'll win next year.  If the D is that legit, they'll win next year.  We'll see.
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Nashville4UGA on November 01, 2017, 10:45:53 AM
I'm holding off judgement on Smart as a success until after next year, when he doesn't have 2 stud RBs.  If the OL is that good, they'll win next year.  If the D is that legit, they'll win next year.  We'll see.
Don't worry, there's more stud RB's coming. 
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2017, 01:44:19 PM
I'm holding off judgement on Smart as a success until after next year, when he doesn't have 2 stud RBs.  If the OL is that good, they'll win next year.  If the D is that legit, they'll win next year.  We'll see.
UGA is flat out loaded at RB in the years to come.  The key will be the OL as usual as to how well that plays out.  (They had those two studs last year and they didn't do much.)
UGA is as loaded at RB as they are at QB.  This kid out of NC is going to be hard to red shirt next year, and about as hard to rotate and get enough carries.  And they signed another one out of Florida highly rated.
Then Swift and Herrien and the boxer's son ain't bad neither, at all.  I thought Herrien was really coming along well but he simply can't get the touches.  Michel had SEVEN carries last Sat.  Seven.  In a run dominated offense up 21-0 before half the crowd sat down and Michel gets 7 carries.

Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2017, 01:44:44 PM
I should add perhaps that he needed breathers after those long runs he had.
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Drew4UTk on November 01, 2017, 02:09:58 PM
in my humble opinion, UGA is about as solid a team as can be asked for- lacking only one quality that keeps them slightly outside the lone team truly elite this year (because they actually raised the bar)- and that is superior depth.  depth they have, but not at bama levels- compared to any other team, they are only shades lighter than the black black soul of Bama.

and with teams like bama and UGA, that is where they get you- though it seems to me UGA leverages their tools more than bama does.  

what i mean by this is: both teams have receivers that demand attention, else they'll light you up.  so, you do what most teams do and cover them... by doing so, and in the case of uga, they'll push a TE across center requiring a LB to pick him up, which if the mismatch it is in most cases, then that's the end of the story... but if it's not- they'll streak a back down the center seam of the field- forcing a LB to make a choice 'either TE or RB', which w/ Fromm's ability to check, means at least five.  this opens up the outside to 50/50 passes as is popular to call them this season due to man coverage protecting against yet another popular moniker this season 'run pass option'... with a team like uga, they operate with a fully functioning offense- the backs will plow you and if you leave a gap they're gone long gone.. the TE will cross center in a heartbeat and the backs will feign protection and then streak- a LB no matter how good will bite on one else be burned by the other... when the safeties fade and the LB's lean back on a play, Fromm will footloose your ass... it's the 'true balance' they have that makes them so dangerous on offense.  understand i don't suggest bama can't do the same- they certainly can as they are truly balanced as well- it's just they simply 'don't' ... saban would rather just lean on a D for three quarters until they fade into mush- relying on his superior depth- he can do exactly as uga does, he just chooses another route.  

by the way, uga laid off the gas on uf let there be no doubt.  their play selection eased after running 21 in the first 1/4.  just like they did MSU, they pounce early and discombobulate the DC, making him realize the entire field must be guarded at all times- he can't sell out on a run or a pass, else..... 7.  

these backs mentioned are something to behold and to sound anything approximating derogatory of them is disingenuous, but i will sit tight on my assessment that those backs get those passages not only because of the Oline, but because leaving one of those receivers in a 50/50 is more like leaving them in a 80/20, and pulling a LB to cover the possibly streaking RB or picking up the possibly crossing TE is a guarantee those backs (or Fromm) will get five yards at a minimum.  it's not the stars, though they are bright, it's instead the entire unit.  

both bama and uga's d speak for themselves.  
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: bamajoe on November 01, 2017, 04:38:14 PM
I am just a fan and don't really know whether Georgia or Alabama is the better team. I do have a different theory about a potential match up between the two teams. Drew really likes Georgia's receivers and Fromm's ability to get the ball to them. I suspect that success has a great deal to do with their running attack. Georgia has not needed to pass thus far this year and on six of the eight games Fromm has thrown 15 or fewer passes. If Georgia can continue to run the ball then Fromm can complete his ten passes and Georgia can move on.

I suspect Bama will do a Leonard Fornette on Georgia's running backs and Fromm will come under pressure for the first time. Can he deliver? We'll see.

BTW, congratulations to Georgia for being number 1. It's been a long time. If you beat us more power to you.
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2017, 05:10:23 PM
Alabama would be about a 6 point favorite over UGA (neutral field) at this time.  

The obvious concern for UGA is what happens if their rushing attack is really stoned and Fromm has to win it.  Mizzou of all people did a pretty good job at this, but Fromm was able against their secondary to "light it up" in relative terms, but Bama is obviously a lot better than Mizzou.  I think UF tried to stone the rushing attack and ended up out of position when Michel got some room, no one was back to head him off.

I rather suspect UGA would have to pass with success to beat Bama.  I think the reverse is also true.  The UGA defense is somewhere in the same general universe as that at Bama.  The LBs are fast and aggressive and Roquan Smith has been a man on a mission.

Here's to hoping they both meet 12-0 and get it on.

Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 01, 2017, 05:30:41 PM
I can't believe I'm going to agree with bamajoe, but there you have it.  The world is ending.  



On an LSU site I frequent, a formula was put together some years ago which is basically an adjusted ypa....we use it to look at the QBs, since QBR is one of the more mercurial stats, starting with the fact that nobody knows what the units are (i.e. a QBR was 99....okay.....99 whats exactly?)  In our case, the number means yards.  More specifically, how many yards is a QB worth when the offense calls his number?  It's not as simple as YPA, but it is a modified YPA, basically.  With my Excel ninja skills, I've been tracking the #s lately on my pimped-out spreadsheet. 



We also similarly run a team's opponents' numbers and come up with a defensive productivity # for that team.  Since it's a modified YPP, the lower the better for the defense.  In said formula, off the top of my head, if a team is down in the low 4's, you're probably looking at an elite defense.  For example, coming into November of 2015, Alabama's defense rated a low 4 number....4.1 or 4.2 maybe, I forget.  And that week, Florida actually carried the SEC banner with an even 4.0....feel free to speculate about discrepancy of schedule....east/west and all that.  



All that to say.....UGA this year has thus far posted a 3.47 in the formula.  I've been doing this a few years, and that's a ridiculously good number for a defense.  I mean, really, really good.  



and yet.....



Alabama is blowing that out of the water with a downright insane 2.85.  Two point eight five.  Alabama's defense is allowing an adjusted average of less than 3 ypp, and statistically speaking, the gap is somewhat wide between 2.85 and 3.47.  I've been doing it long enough to say over half a yard per play is significant.  



It could be sos effect, because the SEC is really bad right now compared to the last decade, but I'm just telling you, those numbers are eye-catching.  



Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Nashville4UGA on November 01, 2017, 06:09:02 PM

It's nice to be #1 and all, but I'd rather it happen at the end of the season. 
Just keep winning! 

However, I think with the first playoff poll that came out the committee  probably got it right for now. 
I'm not saying I think that Georgia is better than Alabama, but as of now they do have the better resume. Not Alabama's fault that the teams on their schedule thus far have been pretty miserable. 

Alabama probably wins on a neutral field, but the gap is closing on them. 

Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2017, 06:54:22 PM
It sounds like a Bama-UGA final score might be 6-4 in 3 OTs.
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2017, 09:32:22 PM
How certain is it that Jones is gone in your opinion?

99.999%?  

What does Vol Nation think if CBJ somehow survives this year?  Do you think at some point the preponderance of fan opinion on this buries other considerations?  What are the large donors thinking?

If Jones indeed is a DMWing, should they not emulate Florida and get it over with?  The season, well, is shot.  I somehow had not realized they were 0-5 in conference play. Shazaam.  But they COULD win out, plausibly, and be 7-5, or 6-6 and make a bowl game.

Is it worth hanging on to CBJ to reduce the buy out and go to some bowl game at 6-6?  Or do you get in line now?
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Drew4UTk on November 01, 2017, 09:51:20 PM
I don't want to be one of those guys who say's he know's someone, but..... 

I'll say just that.  

and what I'm hearing is exactly nothing.  Not a single murmur.  Everyone seems to have a notion of finality, and it seems a foregone he's being launched, yet there is nothing coming out of that office she's willing to share.  Still, I can't believe there is nothing going on, and the silence could just as easily be attributed to certainty as anything... read: they know what they're doing and they've secured the loose ends already. 

on top of all of this, though, i wouldn't be too surprised if they kept him another season.  they have a record of acute stupidity that they'll want to be protecting from competitors. 
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2017, 06:48:54 AM
Let's imagine the Vols keep CBJ for next year.  What are the ramifications of that aside from the obvious?

Will ticket sales plunge, or just drop some?  Will donations plunge or just ebb?  These decisions end up being about money, really, and if they can save say $10 million and lose say $8 million, they come out ahead in a sense.

Another factor is recruiting of course.  CBJ has created at least the image of a program on the upswing attractive to recruits.  If folks start decommiting and that side looks bad, it would be more pressure to change, though changing also can impact recruiting obviously.

The third factor is how well CBJ is "liked" by "management", the reverse of the UF situation where apparently Mac was not liked much.  

And I suppose a fourth factor is how many programs in the SEC may be seeking a new HC in January.  Supply and demand.
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Drew4UTk on November 02, 2017, 09:57:44 AM
despite UT's record over the last decade, they are still a top ten revenue machine.  they started this season ranked under no merit of their own - riding the coat tails of players and coaching staffs much greater than them.  i reckon that is what we call helmet factor.  

performance over the last twenty years would place UT in a crowded room of schools- what they have going for them is there is little else in Tennessee to get excited over if you're an organized sports fan. Tennessee football is it... UT faced a real threat when the Oiler's moved in, but that didn't last too long.  I wager there are 20 UT licensed items sold to every one Titan item.  so... the legacy is all they have at this point, and they are in a real threat of losing it forever, or at least having to do some real convincing to change that.  

UT's legacy gave them facilities as good as any in the nation- that will continue to draw recruits so long as the recruiters stay out of their own way- it may not bring 4 and 5 stars who have their choice of schools, but it will bring good players for the foreseeable future- with facilities like they have, and the fact they're going to at least play contenders several times every year and all the exposure that brings, they'll have decent recruiting classes.  

i don't see them packing out that stadium if CBJ stays.  that is a big impact to image.  if there aren't at least 85k in Neyland, the place looks empty.  that impacts image maybe more than anything else. 

i've said it here and i will again- this is their crossroads in my opinion- retain CBJ or hire badly, and the hole they've already dug doubles or triples in complexity to exit, while connecting with a roundhouse that started from the floor five feet behind them will make UT considered an elite program all over again, even without production.... having the legacy allows them that. 
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2017, 10:40:48 AM
It will be fascinating to see what happens IF CBJ survives this season.

And what happens if he doesn't.  Lane Kiffin? 

Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: HighCountry3 on November 02, 2017, 12:57:07 PM
I just don't see Kiffin returning. I can see some fans being happy about it, but I don't see the boosters being excited about it at all. 
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Cincydawg on November 02, 2017, 04:30:44 PM
The Kiffin comment was not serious.  Maybe for Florida.  Maybe Mullen ends up in Knoxville.

Scott Pruit at Alabama might be a thought.  Mike Bobo?

Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 08, 2017, 02:34:36 AM
Before people start getting too down on Florida - the Gators were down 28 scholarship players vs Mizzou.  Suspensions + injuries.  
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2017, 01:18:46 PM
No doubt that contributes to the bad season thus far, in addition to the coaching situation.

I think folks realize they will be talented next year, but whether they can find a decent QB remains the key issue I think.

First year coaches often are putting together pieces rather than winning.
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: Drew4UTk on November 08, 2017, 01:28:02 PM
how many commits have dropped since the change, @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) (from UF)?  

I can tell you there have been at least three prominent commitment drops from UT, and the coach isn't even gone yet... then, there will certainly be an exodus from the program afterward if they don't hire a huge draw... UT fans need to brace for the loss of Kelly, both QB's, Fil-Aimes and Chandler off the offense just as the beginning.  Some school will luck out hugely even if UT is fortunate and only loses half the mentioned players- and it won't be UT.  the hire is going to be HUGE for UT. 

imHo it won't be near as big a concern for UF, and that's why i brought that^ up.  there is confidence with UF players, staff, alumna and general fanbase that UF will hire well.   that confidence is sorely lacking at UT.    
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 08, 2017, 04:46:58 PM
All I've seen with recruiting is one guy said his was opened back up, but he quickly deleted that message.  The rest has been the the #3 QB in the country posted about staying committed and 4-5 others posted the same hashtag message, whatever it was.  

So that looks good, so far.  Hell, depending who we get, it could help recruiting, lol.
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2017, 04:58:23 PM
I don't know if the OSU gig is any easier, I guess time will tell.
Ask him today. Today is not easy.
Title: Re: the tale of three programs
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 08, 2017, 05:02:35 PM
how many commits have dropped since the change, @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) (from UF)?  

I can tell you there have been at least three prominent commitment drops from UT, and the coach isn't even gone yet... then, there will certainly be an exodus from the program afterward if they don't hire a huge draw... UT fans need to brace for the loss of Kelly, both QB's, Fil-Aimes and Chandler off the offense just as the beginning.  Some school will luck out hugely even if UT is fortunate and only loses half the mentioned players- and it won't be UT.  the hire is going to be HUGE for UT.

imHo it won't be near as big a concern for UF, and that's why i brought that^ up.  there is confidence with UF players, staff, alumna and general fanbase that UF will hire well.   that confidence is sorely lacking at UT.    
What will make it even harder for schools firing their coaches is the new early signing period. When Urbs got to OSU he went and plucked a few "commits" from other programs (including mine) that would not have happened with the early signing period that is in place now.