CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: MaximumSam on October 29, 2017, 04:54:29 AM
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1. Ohio State (Beat PSU 39-38, next up Iowa) It would be really difficult to describe the frustration I had watching this game as a Buckeye fan. An amazing array of just terrible mistakes from the Buckeyes (gave up two long kickoff returns, two fumbles, and 10 soul crushing penalties) plus watching them get two interceptions called back that turned into PSU touchdowns. To some extent, it almost feels like a fluke victory and I should leave them at #2. But they outgained Penn State 529-283, and that's no fluke. What a game.
2. Penn State (Lost to OSU 39-38, next up at MSU) Well, someone had to lose. The defense couldn't hold up, but the offense and special teams were quite good. Not sure there is another team in the B1G that can move the ball like OSU, so they should be all right, even though they don't have much time to lick their wounds beofre they face another tough test on the road.
3. Wisconsin (Beat Illinois 24-10, next up at Indiana) Unimpressive against hapless Illinois. Even the Badgers are getting bored of their own schedule.
4. Michigan State (Lost to Northwestern 39-31 in 3OT, next up Penn State) Didn't get to see any of this game. The stats are...what the hell. Two hapless offenses decide to have a shootout. Neither team rushed the ball all that well, but they combined for 107 passes. Um, ok. Sparty better get that fixed up because Penn State will love to throw fifty times.
5. Michigan (Beat Rutgers 35-14, next up Minnesota) Now this is a Harbaugh game. Over 300 yards rushing, and the quarterback was efficient, not terrible. Brandon Peters is the new man at QB, and if they can run the ball and play defense, he will win a lot of games. After so many muddy looking games, this one is a keeper for the Wolverines, even if just against Rutgers.
6. Northwestern (Beat MSU 38-31 in 3 OT, next up at Nebraska) Northwestern with their yearly climb out of the hole. Spunky team that defies all labels and definitions besides being spunky.
7. Iowa (Beat Minnesota 17-10, next up Ohio State) Peak Iowa game. Iowa does not defy labels.
8. Indiana (Lot to Maryland 42-39, next up Wisconsin) I mean, I have to put them somewhere. They are about to go 0-6 in the conference, but they are competitive in every game against a brutal schedule. And they lost to Maryland despite outgaining them by over 100 yards. Whatevs.
9. Nebraska (Beat Purdue 25-24, next up Northwestern) A Nebraska that doesn't throw picks can win a few games.
10. Purdue (Lost to Nebraska 25-24, next up Illinois) Fading, really, really need to beat Illinois.
11. Maryland (Beat Indiana 42-39, next up at Rutgers) Nice win against the Hoosiers. Ran the ball very well and the offense is getting back to what they want. Defense not holding up their end.
12. Minnesota (Lost to Iowa 17-10, next up at Michigan) Just don't have much on offense. Not going to get easier against Michigan.
13. Rutgers (Lost to Michigan 35-14, next up Maryland) Defense needs to regroup if they want a puncher's chance against the Terps
14. Illinois (Lost to Wisconsin 24-10, next up @Purdue) Blech
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Power rankings are geting harder and harder. Last minute 1-point victory at home for OSU. 2 OT victories in a row for NW. I am tempted to press the reset button until next week. Last year I did not move PSU up to #1 until weeks after they beat OSU. Fair is fair. I am not changing my top 4 until next week. I want to see how OSU, PSU and MSU play next week.
1. PSU
2. Wisc
3. OSU
4. MSU
5. NW
6. Iowa
7. Mich
8. Neb
9. MD
10. Pur
11. Indy
12. Minn
13. Rut
14. ILL
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1) Wisconsin - who can compete with this bored behemoth?
2) OSU - looked the better team, but all those errors will come back to bite them at some point
3) PSU - Don't see another loss on their schedule.
4) MSU - Want to punish them for losing to NW, but not sure I can drop them more.
5) M*ch - I guess
6) Iowa - gonna come out guns a blazin' next week as the Bucks come to visit.
7) Northwestern
8 ) Maryland -
9) Nebraska -
10) Minnesota - rowing in circles
11) Indiana -
12) Rutgers - Personally I hate not having this delinquent rabble anywhere but last; but actual if B1G teams want to suck worse so be it.
13) Pur-don't - new coach more of the same suck-a-tude.
14) Illinois
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Finally seeing some upsets, which makes this more difficult.
1. Ohio State - After yesterday's win, they deserve to be at the top.
2. Penn State - That said, Penn State still deserves to be here because it was close and have played a better schedule than...
3. Wisconsin - Still undefeated but unimpressive yesterday from what I saw.
4. Michigan - Finally found a QB and a running game. Occasional busts on defense are concerning, though. Too more games to gain confidence before UW and OSU.
5. Michigan State - Upset yesterday after pulling out a series of close wins.
6. Northwestern - Still inconsistent and generally plays to the level of their competition.
7. Iowa - See above, though that Iowa State looks impressive in retrospect.
8. Maryland - It's too bad they have the toughest schedule in the league, because they're clearly better than the rest.
9. Indiana - Tough schedule and playing teams tough, but Virginia is still their decent win.
10. Nebraska - At least they keep beating the bottom teams.
11. Rutgers - I hadn't really watched them all season, but they looked somewhat better than I expected.
12. Purdue - It turns out they still can't struggle in close games, but at least their more interesting to watch this year.
13. Minnesota - They play teams close, but they've still only beaten...
14. Illinois - Still winless and just looking terrible.
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Pen State
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Michigan
7. Iowa
8. Indiana
9. Maryland
10. Nebraska
11. Minnesota
12. Purdue
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois
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1) Ohio State
2) Penn State
3) Wisconsin
4) Northwestern
5) Michigan State
6) Michigan
7) Maryland
8) Indiana
9) Nebraska
10) Iowa
11) Minnesota
12) Rutgers
13) Purdue
14) Illinois
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1) Ohio State
2) Penn State
3) Wisconsin
4) Northwestern
5) Michigan State
6) Michigan
7) Iowa
8) Maryland
9) Indiana
10) Minnesota
11) Nebraska
12) Purdue
13) Rutgers
14) Illinois
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I'm having a bit of trouble understanding the love for Wisconsin. Among the first six voters (through Fezz), half of the voters have the Badgers ahead of either PSU, tOSU, or both:
- Ty has them #1
- little has them #2, ahead of Ohio State
- Temp has them #2 ahead of Penn State
Why?
Ranking based on these six votes, Wisconsin has played:
- #5 Northwestern: They did not win as convincingly as Penn State
- #8 Maryland: They did not win as convincingly as Ohio State
- #9 Nebraska: They did not win as convincingly as Ohio State
- #12 Purdue: They did not win as convincingly as Michigan
- #14 Illinois: They did not win as convincingly as Iowa
Granted, this analysis is obviously limited by Wisconsin's weak schedule but they simply have not dominated that weak schedule in the way that I would expect either the Buckeyes or Lions to do.
Among those top-3 there isn't much to go on:
- The only H2H was won by one point by the home team which is hardly dispositive.
- PSU and UW both played Northwestern with PSU looking better.
- tOSU and UW both played Maryland with tOSU looking better.
- tOSU and UW both played Nebraska with tOSU looking better.
- PSU and tOSU both played Indiana and looked about the same.
Thus, my rankings:
- Ohio State: because they beat
- Penn State: because they look to be the equal of Ohio State while Wisconsin does not.
- Wisconsin: because nobody behind them has made a good enough case to move up.
- Michigan State: because they beat
- Michigan: because I think they are better than
- Iowa: because they were competitive in their losses
- Northwestern: because their big wins over MSU and Iowa were both at home in OT
- Nebraska: because I think they are better than
- Maryland: because they beat
- Indiana: because, in spite of their 0-5 record, they have been more competitive than
- Purdue: because, in spite of their loss, I still think they are better than
- Rutgers: because they look better than
- Minnesota: because everybody looks better than
- Illinois: because 14th is the lowest ranking I can give out
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1 Ohio St
2 Penn St
3 Wisconsin
4 Northwestern
5 Michigan St
6 Iowa
7 Michigan
8 Nebraska
9 Maryland
10 Indiana
11 Rutgers
12 Purdue
13 Minnesota
14 Illinois
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trouble understanding the love for Wisconsin.
They did not win as convincingly as
Well, as you know.... the Badgers aren't built to run up a huge amount of points and win convincingly
doesn't mean that the Badgers wouldn't win a contest vs Ohio St. or Penn St.
Ohio St. did not win convincingly vs Penn St. - so should Penn St be ranked ahead of Ohio St.?
Northwestern hasn't been very convincing in their wins. Iowa and MSU might be better teams than Northwestern, we will never know for sure
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Michigan
7. Iowa
8. Indiana
9. Maryland
10. Nebraska
11. Minnesota
12. Purdue
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois
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trouble understanding the love for Wisconsin.
They did not win as convincingly as
Well, as you know.... the Badgers aren't built to run up a huge amount of points and win convincingly
doesn't mean that the Badgers wouldn't win a contest vs Ohio St. or Penn St.
Ohio St. did not win convincingly vs Penn St. - so should Penn St be ranked ahead of Ohio St.?
Northwestern hasn't been very convincing in their wins. Iowa and MSU might be better teams than Northwestern, we will never know for sure
"Well, as you know.... the Badgers aren't built to run up a huge amount of points and win convincingly" -
eh, I've seen similarly built (but, I believe better) Wisconsin squads run up huge amounts of points.
"doesn't mean that the Badgers wouldn't win a contest vs Ohio St. or Penn St." -
Any given Saturday, anything can happen. It could certainly happen, but the Badgers have given me no reason to believe that it will or, even if it does, that they are actually better.
"Ohio St. did not win convincingly vs Penn St. - so should Penn St be ranked ahead of Ohio St.?" -
My answer is maybe. I feel strongly that H2H should not be an end-all-be-all in Power Rankings and that the best team does NOT always win. Furthermore, a one point win by the home team is about as non-convincing of a H2H result as is possible. Thus, I would certainly be open to ranking Penn State ahead of Ohio State but there would have to be a reason.
Ohio State and Penn State currently have the H2H result and only one common opponent. The Buckeyes beat Indiana 49-21 in Bloomington while the Nittany Lions beat the Hoosiers 45-14 in Happy Valley. Neither of those, IMHO, lean strongly one way or the other. By the end of the season the Buckyes and Lions will have seven common opponents (the other five B1G-E teams plus Iowa and Nebraska). If Penn State does substantially better than Ohio State in most of those match-ups I'll seriously consider ranking the Lions ahead of the Buckeyes even if the Buckeyes end up with the same or a better record.
"Northwestern hasn't been very convincing in their wins. Iowa and MSU might be better teams than Northwestern, we will never know for sure" -
True, and reflecting that I ranked the Wildcats behind both the Hawkeyes and the Spartans.
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S&P
1. OSU (1)
2. Wisconsin (6)
3. PSU (7)
4. MSU (21)
5. Michigan (26)
6. Iowa (43)
7. Purdue (49)
8. Indiana (55)
9. Minnesota (66)
10. Northwestern (71)
11. Nebraska (73)
12. Rutgers (89)
13. Maryland (92)
14. Illinois (109)
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Sorting the top-3:
There are only 10 voters but there is universal agreement that the top three are the Buckeyes, Badgers, and Nittany Lions. There is disagreement, of course, over the order of those three but there isn't any debate that those are the top-3.
I've been criticized for it in the past and that is fine, but one thing that I generally weigh more heavily than others is common opponents. It is odd this year, however, that there aren't many yet. At the end of the regular season those three teams will have a number of common opponents:
- Ohio State and Penn State will have their H2H plus seven common opponents (the other five B1G-E teams plus Iowa and Nebraska)
- Ohio State and Wisconsin will have six common opponents (UW's three B1G-E opponents and tOSU's three B1G-W opponents)
- Penn State and Wisconsin will have six common opponents (UW's three B1G-E opponents and PSU's three B1G-W opponents).
That will be plenty of data for me to feel reasonably confident in my pre-B1GCG arrangement of those three teams. The odd part is that there are VERY few common opponents among those three teams so far:
- Ohio State and Penn State have their H2H and . . . Indiana. Neither is terribly convincing as the home team pulled out a narrow win in the H2H and both teams did about the same against Indiana (PSU won by three more points but they were at home where Ohio State was on the road so you could make the argument for either and it is close either way).
- Ohio State and Wisconsin have two common opponents. The Buckeyes beat both the Terps and the Cornhuskers more convincingly than the Badgers. That is why I have Ohio State ahead, for now, but I'm not completely convinced because those are not good teams and in both cases the Badgers won reasonably comfortably.
- Penn State and Wisconsin have just one common opponent, Northwestern. The Nittany Lions won more convincingly and did it on the road while the Badgers got NU at home but it is only one game. I need to see more to be confident.
The way the schedule is set-up, common opponents will be added rapidly over the last four weeks.
This weekend:
- Ohio State will play Iowa, PSU already did
- Wisconsin will play Indiana, tOSU and PSU already did
November 11:
- Ohio State will play MSU, PSU will already have played them
- Penn State will play Rutgers, tOSU already did
- Wisconsin will play Iowa, PSU and tOSU will already have played them
November 18:
- Ohio State will play Illinois, Wisconsin already did
- Penn State will play Nebraska, tOSU and UW already did
- Wisconsin will play Michigan, PSU already did
Final weekend:
- Ohio State will play Michigan, PSU and UW will already have played them
- Penn State will play Maryland, tOSU and UW already did
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1. OSU
2. Wisc
3. PSU
4. NW
5. MSU
6. Iowa
7. Mich
8. Neb
9. MD
10. Pur
11. Indy
12. Minn
13. Rut
14. ILL
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Last week in parenthesis
1. OHIO STATE (3) - less because of the actual head to head win, and more because the stats show the game probably wouldn't be as close if they played again
2. PENN STATE (1) - I think they are really good , but it's Halloween and they don't have a top 25 win, so it's hard to say how good
3. WISCONSIN (2) - Northwestern and Nebraska postponed the inevitable by a week
4. MICHIGAN (5) - maybe based more on my anticipation that they'll be better going forward without O'Korn
5. MICHIGAN STATE (4) - disappointing, but you aren't going to win every toss up game
6. NORTHWESTERN (7) - people seem to be greatly overreacting to OT home wins, that on their own would show, if anything, they'd be expected to lose neutral field against Iowa and MSU
7. IOWA (8) - much needed win to hopefully swing momentum
8. MARYLAND (10) - still cannot figure them out at all
9. INDIANA (6) - so much for being victims of schedule
10. NEBRASKA (12) - well if nothing, they certainly haven't given up on this coaching staff
11. PURDUE (9) - air coming out of the sails for 2017 in a hurry
12. MINNESOTA (11) - so apparently Demry Croft is awful
13. RUTGERS (13) - they aren't terrible, but they aren't good
14. ILLINOIS (14) - at least kept it respectible
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Week 9 composite computer rankings (102 computers - last week in parentheses)
1. Georgia (3)
2. Alabama (1)
3. Notre Dame (4)
4. PENN STATE (2)
5. OHIO STATE (7)
6. Clemson (5)
7. WISCONSIN (8)
8. Central Florida (10)
9. Oklahoma (13)
10. TCU (6)
11. Miami (9)
12. Oklahoma State (11)
13. Washington (12)
14. Virginia Tech (14)
15. USC (18)
16. Mississippi State (23)
17. Auburn (20)
18. Iowa State (25)
19. NC State (15)
20. MICHIGAN (21)
21. MICHIGAN STATE (16)
22. Stanford (19)
23. Memphis (-)
24. Washington State (17)
25. LSU (24)
26. Iowa (29)
30. Northwestern (39)
51. Maryland (63)
54. Nebraska (70)
65. Purdue (60)
67. Indiana (55)
68. Minnesota (62)
89. Rutgers (85)
105. Illinois (106)
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We only have 12 voters (on the old board we used to regularly get around 30) but here are the results:
| Team/Poster | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range | LW AVG | LW Rank | Chg Avg | Chg Rank |
| tOSU | 1.25 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2.36 | 2 | 1.11 | 1 |
| PSU | 2.17 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1.09 | 1 | (1.08) | -1 |
| UW | 2.58 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2.64 | 3 | 0.05 | 0 |
| MSU | 4.67 | 4 | 0.49 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3.91 | 4 | (0.76) | 0 |
| NU | 5.08 | 5 | 1.24 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 6.18 | 6 | 1.10 | 1 |
| M | 5.67 | 6 | 1.07 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5.55 | 5 | (0.12) | -1 |
| Iowa | 6.83 | 7 | 1.11 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 7.45 | 7 | 0.62 | 0 |
| MD | 8.67 | 8 | 0.98 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 10.45 | 10 | 1.79 | 2 |
| UNL | 9.17 | 9 | 1.03 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 10.36 | 9 | 1.20 | 0 |
| IU | 9.33 | 10 | 1.23 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 7.27 | 8 | (2.06) | -2 |
| PU | 11.50 | 11 | 1.09 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 10.45 | 11 | (1.05) | 0 |
| MN | 11.67 | 12 | 1.07 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 11.00 | 12 | (0.67) | 0 |
| RU | 12.42 | 13 | 0.79 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 12.27 | 13 | (0.14) | 0 |
| ILL | 14.00 | 14 | - | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 14 | - | 0 |
And here is my schedule/performance chart:
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
| . | Team | tOSU | PSU | UW | MSU | NU | M | Iowa | MD | UNL | IU | PU | MN | RU | ILL | Team | . |
| 1 | tOSU | n/a | L by 1, A | miss | 11/11, A | miss | 11/25, H | 11/4, H | L by 48, A | L by 42, H | L by 28, H | miss | miss | L by 56, H | 11/18, A | tOSU | 1 |
| 2 | PSU | W by 1, H | n/a | miss | 11/4, H | L by 24, H | L by 29, A | L by 2, H | 11/25, H | 11/18, A | L by 31, A | miss | miss | 11/11, A | miss | PSU | 2 |
| 3 | UW | miss | miss | n/a | miss | L by 9, A | 11/18, A | 11/11, A | L by 25, A | L by 21, H | 11/4, H | L by 8, A | 11/25, H | miss | L by 14, H | UW | 3 |
| 4 | MSU | 11/11, H | 11/4, A | miss | n/a | W in OT, H | L by 4, H | L by 7, A | 11/18, A | miss | L by 8, A | miss | L by 3, H | 11/25, H | miss | MSU | 4 |
| 5 | NU | miss | W by 24, A | W by 9, H | L in OT, A | n/a | miss | L in OT, A | L by 16, H | 11/4, H | miss | 11/11, A | 11/18, A | miss | 11/25, H | NU | 5 |
| 6 | M | 11/25, A | W by 29, H | 11/18, H | W by 4, A | miss | n/a | miss | 11/11, H | miss | L in OT, H | L by 18, H | 11/4, A | L by 21, A | miss | M | 6 |
| 7 | Iowa | 11/4, A | W by 2, A | 11/11, H | W by 7, H | W in OT, H | miss | n/a | miss | 11/24, H | miss | 11/18, A | L by 7, A | miss | L by 29, A | Iowa | 7 |
| 8 | MD | W by 48, H | 11/25, A | W by 25, H | 11/18, H | W by 16, A | 11/11, A | miss | n/a | miss | L by 3, A | miss | L by 7, H | 11/4, H | miss | MD | 8 |
| 9 | UNL | W by 42, A | 11/18, H | W by 21, A | miss | 11/4, A | miss | 11/24, A | miss | n/a | miss | L by 1, H | 11/11, H | L by 10, A | L by 22, H | UNL | 9 |
| 10 | IU | W by 28, A | W by 31, H | 11/4, A | W by 8, H | miss | W in OT, A | miss | W by 3, H | miss | n/a | 11/25, H | miss | 11/18, A | 11/11, H | IU | 10 |
| 11 | PU | miss | miss | W by 8, H | miss | 11/11, H | W by 18, A | 11/18, H | miss | W by 1, A | 11/25, A | n/a | L by 14, A | W by 2, H | 11/4, A | PU | 11 |
| 12 | MN | miss | miss | 11/25, A | W by 3, A | 11/18, H | 11/4, H | W by 7, H | W by 7, A | 11/11, A | miss | W by 14, H | n/a | miss | L by 7, A | MN | 12 |
| 13 | RU | W by 56, A | 11/11, H | miss | 11/25, A | miss | W by 21, H | miss | 11/4, H | W by 10, H | 11/18, H | L by 2, A | miss | n/a | L by 11, H | RU | 13 |
| 14 | ILL | 11/18, H | miss | W by 14, A | miss | 11/25, A | miss | W by 29, H | miss | W by 22, A | 11/11, A | 11/4, H | W by 7, H | W by 11, A | n/a | ILL | 14 |
| . | Team | tOSU | PSU | UW | MSU | NU | M | Iowa | MD | UNL | IU | PU | MN | RU | ILL | Team | . |
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
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Thank you for the chart.