CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 12, 2019, 12:10:49 PM
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ACC-Atlantic:
- Clemson has clinched and will be in the ACCCG
ACC-Coastal (still the most exciting division in the P5):
- 5-2 Virginia: The Cavaliers only have one conference game left but it is against a 2-loss VaTech team so if they lose they'll need a lot of help.
- 3-2 VaTech: The Hokies lost to Dook but beat Miami and UNC with Pitt and Virginia left on the schedule. They control their own destiny and if they win out they will win the division outright but if they lose to Virginia they are out and if they lose one of their other two games (@GaTech, vsPitt) they would need help.
- 3-2 Pitt: The Panthers lost to UVA and Miami but they beat Dook and haven't played UNC or VaTech. If they win out they would get in with a VaTech win over UVA.
- 4-3 Miami: The Hurricanes lost to VaTech and UNC but their other loss (GaTech) will not hurt them in tiebreakers. They beat Virginia and Pitt and have not yet played Dook. If they win out they'll need VaTech to beat Virginia and lose to some other team and Pitt and UNC to lose one game each.
- 3-3 North Carolina: The Tar Heels can get into a tie if they win out and VaTech beats Virgina but loses some other game. The problem for the Tar Heels is that they lost to both UVA and VaTech so they would need a complicated tiebreaker that somehow favored them and I'm not seeing it.
- 2-3 Dook: The Blue Devils lost to UVA, Pitt, and UNC but they beat VaTech and have not yet played Miami. They need all kinds of help but they could theoretically get into at least a tie.
- 1-5 GaTech is mathematically eliminated.
SEC-East:
- 5-1 Georgia: The Bulldogs just need to win one of their last two conference games (@Auburn, vsaTm) and they'll have a spot in Atlanta.
- 5-2 Florida: The Gators need to beat Mizzou and hope Georgia collapses.
- 3-3 Tennessee: The Volunteers are mathematically eliminated. They could theoretically get into a tie with Georgia and Florida if the Bulldogs and Gators both collapse but it wouldn't help the Volunteers because they lost to both of those teams.
SEC-West:
- 5-0 LSU: The Tigers obviously control the division and they have a game to give. As long as they don't collapse they'll be in Atlanta.
- 5-1 Bama: The Tide could still get there but they would need LSU to lose two of their last three.
- 4-2 Auburn: The Tigers would need the other Tigers to collapse.
- 3-2 aTm: The Aggies have a shot at LSU but they would still need LSU to also lose one of their other two remaining games and even then they'd need more help because Bama only has one loss and beat the Aggies.
P12-North:
- 6-0 Oregon: The Ducks only need either one win or one OrSU loss to clinch the division.
- 3-3 Oregon State: The Beavers need to win out (vASU, @WSU, @Oregon) and for the Ducks to also lose their other two games (vsZona, @ASU).
P12-South:
- 5-1 Utah: The Utes are in control but they have no margin for error because they lost to the Trojans.
- 5-2 USC: If the Utes lose a game then the Trojans control their own destiny.
- 4-2 UCLA: After their woeful start this is pretty surprising but the Bruins actually control their own destiny. They have games remaining against both Utah and USC and if they win out (their other game is Cal) they will win the division.
- 2-4 ASU: The Sun Devils are mathematically eliminated because even if they win out to finish 5-4, they would need Utah and USC lose out to also finish 5-4. The problem is that if that happend the Bruins would pick up two wins giving them six so that doesn't work for the Sun Devils.
- 2-4 Arizona: The Wildcats have the same problem that the Sun Devils have.
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I could see the Utes barfing up the UCLA game, like they did USC.
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I somehow managed to completely forget the divionless B12 in my earlier post, here is the situation in that league:
- 6-0 Baylor: Would almost clinch a B12CG spot with a win over Oklahoma this weekend. With that win they would be 7-0 and could do no worse than 7-2. Only Oklahoma (5-2) and Texas (4-2) could catch them and they would own the H2H tiebreaker over Oklahoma. In theory they could still finish in a three-way tie*
- 5-1 Oklahoma: Would almost clinch a B12CG spot with a win over Baylor this weekend. With that win they would be 6-1 and own H2H victories over Baylor, Texas, and ISU. They would, however, lose a 6-3 tie with either KSU or OkSU or both.
- 4-2 Texas: The shortest path for the Longhorns is to win out (@ISU, @Baylor, vsTxTech) and for Oklahoma to beat Baylor. In that case the Longhorns would finish tied with Baylor and they would win that tie. See three-team tiebreaker below for the event of a three-way tie at 7-2 between TX, OU, and Baylor.
- 3-3 KSU: The Wildcats have that nice H2H win over Oklahoma but it isn't going to matter unless Oklahoma starts losing. The problem is that KSU has losses to Baylor, Texas, and OkSU so they need a lot of help.
- 3-3 OkSU: The Cowboys would need a lot of help. They can't do any better than a tie with Baylor and they lost to Baylor. They also lost to Texas but they haven't played OU yet. In theory they could get in, but it would require multiple losses by both Texas and Oklahoma.
- 3-3 Iowa State: The Cyclones have losses to Baylor, Oklahoma, and OkSU so they would need even more help than the Cowboys.
- 2-4 TCU: In theory the Frogs could make it but it would require an epic collapse by Oklahoma along with unlikely losses by Texas, OkSU, and ISU.
- 2-4 Texas Tech: I think that the Raiders are mathematically eliminated because they can't catch Baylor and could only possibly tie Oklahoma. They already lost to Oklahoma so they would lose a two-way tie but realistically if they ended up tied with OU at 5-4 there would almost have to be other teams involved in that tie.
- 1-5 WVU and Kansas: These two are definitely mathematically eliminated because they can do no better than 4-5.
*Three team scenario and tiebreaker:
The scenario:
- Texas wins out (@ISU, @Baylor, vsTxTech) and finishes 7-2/9-3
- Oklahoma loses exactly one of their three remaining games (@Baylor, vsTCU, @OkSU) and finishes 7-2/10-2
- Baylor loses exactly one other game (in addition to losing to Tx) and finishes 7-2/10-2
The B12's first tiebreaker is H2H2H. Texas would be 1-1 with a win over Baylor and a loss to Oklahoma.
If Oklahoma beats Baylor then:
- Oklahoma is in (2-0 H2H2H)
- Texas is in (1-1 H2H2H)
- Baylor is out (0-2 H2H2H)
If Baylor beats Oklahoma then:
The H2H2H would be all tied up at 1-1 each (OU>TX>Baylor>OU).
The next tiebreaker is record against the next best B12 team, then the next, then the next, etc. At this point it is too early to determine that. Each team's other loss would be to:
- OU's other loss would be to KSU, currently 3-3.
- Texas' other loss would be to TCU, currently 2-4.
- Baylor's other loss would be to Kansas, currently 1-5.
KSU has the best current record AND the easiest remaining schedule so the most likely outcome is that the three teams would be compared based on their records against KSU which would eliminate Oklahoma and send the Longhorns and Bears to the B12CG.
I really hate this tiebreaker and the B1G uses it as well. It is trying to reward good wins but the problem, IMHO, is that by doing that it inherently penalizes "good" losses. Ie, in this scenario, Baylor's "other" loss would be to a woeful Kansas team. That, to me, is a LOT worse than Oklahoma's and Texas' losses to TCU and KSU.
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The SEC could get locked down Saturday, right? I hope.
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The SEC could get locked down Saturday, right? I hope.
Your Bulldogs can clinch the SEC-E and they don't even need any help. Actually, there are two ways the Bulldogs could clinch this weekend:
- Win at Auburn, or
- Florida losing at Mizzou
Either way Georgia clinches a spot in Atlanta because:
- If Georgia wins they move to 6-1 and can do no worse than 6-2. That would be no worse than tied with Florida and Georgia won the H2H with the Gators, or
- If Florida loses they move to 5-3. At that point the worst case scenario for the Bulldogs would be a tie with Florida and/or Tennessee and Georgia beat both the Gators and the Volunteers so they would win any potential tie.
The SEC-W theoretically could get locked down on Saturday but it would require both and LSU win (at Ole Miss) and a Bama loss (at MissSt). An LSU win alone does not quite clinch it because LSU could still theoretically finish 6-2 (with home losses to Arkansas and aTm) and behind a 7-1 Bama.
Other teams with the potential to clinch this weekend:
Oregon can clinch the PAC-N with either a win (vsZona) or an Oregon State loss (vsASU).
Utah could clinch the PAC-S with both a win (vsUCLA) and a USC loss (@Cal).