CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ohio1317 on November 10, 2019, 10:30:44 AM
-
Teams with 1st loss Week 11:
Alabama
Penn State
Teams with 2nd loss Week 11:
Wake Forest
San Diego State
Teams with 1st win Week 11:
none
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
4: Clemson, Baylor, LSU, Ohio State/Minnesota
While we lost a few more undefeated teams, we still have at least one left in 4 conferences.
Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 35.38% (46 of 130)
Week 2: 38.01% (32 of 84)
Week 3: 32.69% (17 of 52)
Week 4: 34.29% (12 of 35)
Week 5: 21.74% (5 of 23)
Week 6: 11.11% (2 of 18)
Week 7: 25% (4 of 16)
Week 8: 16.67% (2 of 12)
Week 9: 10% (1 of 10)
Week 10: 22.22% (2 of 9)
Week 11: 28.57% (2 of 7)
Week 11 Thoughts:
-Our biggest events this weekend were certainly the two games between undefeateds. LSU put an explanation mark on their re-emergence this year and beat Alabama on the road. Barring a complete collapse, they will be in the SEC title game vs. Georgia. Alabama for its part, probably needs some help for the CFP bowls. They might get in with 1 loss and not as SEC champs, but LSU probably would have had the stronger argument there. I do expect them to still be about #4 this week from the committee, but a 1-loss PAC-12 and/or Big 12 champ could well pass them by the end. It might take till the final week (where one of them would have a good win and Alabama wouldn't be playing), but I would lean to things playing out that way if either conference ends that way. I also think Alabama might need a bit of help against Ohio State if the Buckeyes lose. Penn State and Minnesota are both still probably in if they win out (including against the Buckeyes). If it came down to a 1-loss Ohio State and 1-loss Alabama, neither of whom were conference champs, I could see the committee going either way (how they both looked down the stretch would matter too).
-Our other undefeated game also ended with an upset. People don't realize it, but for a long time, Minnesota was a powerhouse. They have several national championships, a lot of Big Ten ones, and still have a slight winning record against Nebraska in what was a long series before it disappeared decades ago (although went from a series dominated by Minnesota to one by Nebraska). They have been middle of the pack or worse for a long time though. Their win against Penn State is their biggest in a long time in several ways. This should push them way up the rankings for one. For another (probably bigger deal), they have a 2 game lead vs. Wisconsin in the west. Their remaining schedule includes games vs. both Iowa and Wisconsin so they are definitely not in the Big Ten championship yet, but if they can win either one in addition to beating a down Northwestern, they are in.
-Baylor keeps finding ways to win. There was nothing but field goals in regulation, but the Bears came back and then beat TCU in triple overtime. Next week they'll have the likely game of the week vs. Oklahoma. If they win that or beat Texas, they pretty much lock themselves into the Big 12 championship (although they shouldn't sleep on Kansas this year).
-Wake Forest's loss leaves Clemson alone on these lists from the ACC. If the tigers make the CFP, the next best ACC team will be in the Orange Bowl and, as things stand right now, it will not be a highly ranked team (although still time to move up some).
-Group of 5 Cotton Bowl Bid: The Mountain West had two late very close games with its 1-loss teams. Boise State came through in overtime while San Diego State lost. This guarantees now that at least one team entering the Mountain West Championship Game will have more than 1-loss. If you are a potential 2-loss American conference champ, Appalachian State, or maybe Louisiana Tech that is very much what you want to see (although both losing would have been better).
Looking at the others, Appalachian State beat South Carolina this week which keeps them at least somewhat in this race, but it would have been a bigger deal if they hadn't lost the week before. They still stand a chance, but based on ranking already out there and remaining schedules, they might need 3 loss champs from both the Mountain West and American (or at least lesser looking 2 loss teams).
In the American, everything stood pat although East Carolina gave a bit of a scare for the 2nd week in a row to a top team (this week SMU, last Cincinnati).
Week 12 Thoughts:
-Our undefeated teams play in the following games: 1-loss Oklahoma @ undefeated Baylor, undefeated Ohio State @ Rutgers, undefeated Minnesota @ Iowa, Wake Forest @ undefeated Clemson, undefeated LSU @ Ole Miss
-Our winless teams play in the following: 4-5 Eastern Michigan @ winless Akron (Tuesday), 5-5 FCS Incarnate Word @ winless New Mexico State, winless Rice @ 3-5 Middle Tennessee. New Mexico State will likely be favored to win this week and we will hopefully finally be able to move another team off this list.
1-loss Oklahoma @ undefeated Baylor: The Bears keep winning and now is the biggest test. If they win this, they should jump very high up the rankings and will be taken as a serious CFP bowl contender. Oklahoma for their part, also must absolutely win it to stay in that race. Both teams stand a high chance of being in the Big 12 Championship, but neither can assume they are if they lose here.
1-loss Georgia @ Auburn: The deep south's oldest rivalry. If Georgia loses this, it sets up some interesting scenarios for committee. What if a 2 loss Georgia won the SEC and LSU and Alabama ended with 1 a piece? My personal guess is Georgia wouldn't be in, but expect a lot of talk about those scenarios if Auburn pulls this off. The even bigger deal is that if Georgia loses here, it needs to win against Texas A&M if wants to go to Atlanta (or have Florida lose).
Undefeated Minnesota @ Iowa: The Golden Gophers are now going to get national respect and their first game after that will be a tough one. The two compete for the Floyd of Rosedale, a pig trophy that proves Minnesota has the best combination of rivalry trophies out there (they also have the ax with Wisconsin). Just as important here, win this game and Minnesota can lock up the Big Ten West before playing Wisconsin. All they would need else would be to beat Northwestern. Lose this one, and (if Wisconsin wins too), it all comes down to the season finale.
Undefeated Clemson @ Wake Forest: This game would have felt so much bigger if Wake hadn't lost fairly badly last week. Still, it's looking more like every game is a must win for Clemson, so a slip up can't happen here.
1-loss Louisiana Tech @ Marshall (Friday): This is Louisiana Tech's toughest remaining game. Win this and they are likely going to the Conference USA championship game. From there, they need to hope for absolute chaos to give them a shot at the Cotton Bowl.
1-loss Alabama @ Mississippi State: The tide are probably not going to be SEC champs, but are still in national title hunt. They need to show the committee, it absolutely has to include them though which means blow outs the rest of the way are almost a must. It might or might not be enough, but how the games look is important here.
Indiana @ 1-loss Penn State: For as much excitement may have been lost losing to Minnesota, everything is still in front of Penn State. If they win out, they are almost certainly in the CFP as a 1-loss Big Ten champ. This week though cannot be a let down vs. an Indiana team who is better than most the nation realizes. If Penn State loses this, they still won't get to Indianapolis even with a win over Ohio State the following week so they need this now to keep everything on tract. Indiana meanwhile was already bowl eligible in October which is not something they can say too often.
1-loss Cincinnati @ South Florida: Starts a tough final three games for the Bearcats. Win 2 of them and they are in the American championship (or just beat Temple actually). They want a lot more than that though.
1-loss Memphis @ Houston: The Tigers are tied for first in the American West with Navy and SMU and it has beat both of them (so has potential tie breakers). If they lose this game though, they no longer control their destiny.
1-loss Navy @ Notre Dame: Both teams are actually competing to be in the Cotton Bowl (although from different sides). Notre Dame is out with a loss here. Navy is not out, but even if they get the help they need in the American, they might need a bit of help if win the conference with 2 overall loses.
UCLA @ 1-loss Utah: UCLA has been trending up. Utah should be favored decently, but a possible trap set-up here with Utah coming off big win and move into first place in their division.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, SEC: 1, total: 5
Clemson
Baylor
Minnesota
Ohio State
Louisiana State
1-loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 4, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, total: 12
Cincinnati
Louisiana Tech
Oregon
Utah
Navy
Georgia
Memphis
Boise State
Oklahoma
Appalachian State
Southern Methodist
Alabama
Penn State
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, independents: 1, total: 3
Rice
Akron
New Mexico State
-
Minnesota also has the $5 and broken bits of chair trophy.
-
I am fairly confident three teams will be in the playoff - OSU, LSU, Clemson. OSU of course has two tougher games, PSU and @ UM. LSU has a pretty easy ride to the CG, as does Clemson of course. I'd also note having 3 teams undefeated at year's end is rare indeed (though it happened in 2018).
-
Minnesota also has the $5 and broken bits of chair trophy.
a a little Jug with Michigan
-
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJHJB4eUYAMHcfW?format=jpg&name=small)
-
[img width=500 height=280.994]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJHJB4eUYAMHcfW?format=jpg&name=small[/img]
I don't get why the SEC is #2 with one undefeated team and the Big 12 and ACC are tied for #3 with one undefeated team each.
If it's because LSU is better than Baylor or Clemson, then the ACC (with Clemson) ought to be #3 and the Big 12 (with Baylor ) at #4.
-
I don't get why the SEC is #2 with one undefeated team and the Big 12 and ACC are tied for #3 with one undefeated team each.
If it's because LSU is better than Baylor or Clemson, then the ACC (with Clemson) ought to be #3 and the Big 12 (with Baylor ) at #4.
The SEC is just a little bit more than every other conference...so their one is actually 1.1 I'd guess.
-
1.5 at least
-
At this point the only potential remaining game between undefeated teams is the B1GCG.
-
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJLUaQkX0AEXf2_?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
-
Akron is getting smoked by Eastern Michigan.
They have zero chance of collecting a win this year, at this point. Ohio and Miami will absolutely demolish them.
Let the "Zips" jokes rain down like hell fire.
-
Undefeated teams in the CFP rankings:
- #1 LSU
- #2 Ohio State
- #3 Clemson
- #8 Minnesota
- #13 Baylor
Top G5 Teams in the CFP rankings:
- #17 Cincinnati, AAC-East
- #18 Memphis, AAC-West
- #21 Boise State, MWC-Mountain
- #23 Navy, AAC-West
- #25 Appalachian State, Sun Belt-East
So at this point the AAC, MWC, and Sun Belt are all represented in the rankings. It still looks like the G5's bid is the AAC's to lose but if those three AAC teams each sustain a loss it would be possible for Boise State or Appalachian State to get into the mix.
Regarding the CFP, I believe at this time that the following teams all control their own destiny to the CFP:
- 9-0 LSU: If they win out they'll be 13-0 and SEC Champs and in the CFP
- 9-0 tOSU: If they win out they'll be 13-0 and B1G Champs and in the CFP
- 10-0 Clemson: If they win out they'll be 13-0 and ACC Champs and in the CFP
- 8-1 Georgia: If they win out they'll be 12-1 and SEC Champs and in the CFP
- 9-0 Minnesota: If they win out they'll be 13-0 and B1G Champs and in the CFP
- 8-1 Penn State: If they win out they'll be 12-1 and B1G Champs and in the CFP
- 9-0 Baylor: If they win out they'll be 13-0 and B12 Champs and in the CFP
That is it. Everybody else could, at least theoretically miss the CFP even if they win out from here. There are seven teams listed but only four can possibly win out because either LSU or Georgia must lose and two out of three of tOSU, PSU, and MN must lose.
-
What about Oregon at 12-1? Might they get chosen over a 12-1 Penn State, while Baylor/Clemson/LSU are 13-0?
-
What about Oregon at 12-1? Might they get chosen over a 12-1 Penn State, while Baylor/Clemson/LSU are 13-0?
If you figure that Penn State would have beaten Ohio State and probably revenged their loss to Minny in the B1GCG, I would think the committee would take Penn State
-
If you figure that Penn State would have beaten Ohio State and probably revenged their loss to Minny in the B1GCG, I would think the committee would take Penn State
I agree. Looking at the rankings right now, Oregon is #6 with a loss to #12 and zero wins over ranked teams. The only currently ranked team that they could possibly play is #7 Utah.
Penn State is #9 with a loss to #8 and wins over #15 and #20. Additionally, winning out would require beating #2 and either #8, #14, or #20. Even if Oregon's loss ends up better than Penn State's, the Nittany Lions at 12-1 would still have a HUGE advantage over Oregon in quality wins.
Additionally, most of the things that could degrade Penn State's loss and/or their hypothetical quality wins would improve other Penn State results. Ie, if Michigan beats Ohio State that would degrade PSU's hypothetical best win, but it would improve their hypothetical second best win so that is a wash. Even Indiana beating Michigan might be roughly a wash for PSU because it would likely result in Indiana being ranked.
-
What about Oregon at 12-1? Might they get chosen over a 12-1 Penn State, while Baylor/Clemson/LSU are 13-0?
Highly unlikely. As it stands Oregon needs some help getting in. They don't always win pretty, they lost the one game they absolutely needed to have as their signature win, and play a mediocre schedule. It sounds an awful lot like Bama, but even with their controversial selections to MNC games/playoff appearances (the ones where they didn't even win their own division), they have a proven track record that indicated that they at least belonged there. Oregon doesn't have that benefit. They need to absolutely slaughter Utah like 52-7 to get the committee to bite, and hope that Clemson loses somewhere (which is a distinct possibility, but they have been playing much better lately so it's not likely they'll get tagged until the postseason). They won't get in over a 12-1 B1G champ, they won't get in over a 12-1 SEC champ, and they might not get in over a 12-1 B12 champ or B1G/SEC runner-up. LSU can absolutely lose to Georgia in the SEC 'ship and still get in as the 4 seed (and there wouldn't be as much controversy because they'd have at least won their division)
-
...Bama, but even with their controversial selections to MNC games/playoff appearances (the ones where they didn't even win their own division)...
Two teams have made the CFP without playing in their CG. Both were division co-champs:
- In 2016 Ohio State lost by a FG on the road to PSU. The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions both finished 8-1 in the B1G. They were co-Champions of the B1G-E and PSU went to the B1GCG based on their H2H win.
- In 2017 Alabama lost 26-14 on the road to Auburn. The Tide and Tigers both finished 7-1 in the SEC. They were co-Champions of the SEC-W and Auburn went to the SECCG based on their H2H win.
In both cases the team that the CFP selected was a divisional co-champion who lost the tiebreaker due to a road loss. Back when we didn't have divisions everyone was accustomed to talking about co-champions. Now all of a sudden it seems like most people think co-champions no longer exist.
In both cases the H2H winner that went to the respective CG had multiple losses. Auburn lost 14-6 to Clemson and 27-23 to an LSU team that Bama beat 24-10. Penn State lost to Pitt and got annihilated by a Michigan team that Ohio State beat.