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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ohio1317 on November 05, 2019, 01:01:27 AM
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Teams with 1st loss Week 10:
Appalachian State
Southern Methodist
Teams with 2nd loss Week 10:
Florida
UAB
Teams with 1st win Week 10:
none
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
4: Clemson, Baylor, Alabama/LSU, Ohio State/Minnesota/Penn State
We dropped 2 this week with Appalachian State and SMU's losses removing the final undefeated teams from the Sun Belt and American.
Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 35.38% (46 of 130)
Week 2: 38.01% (32 of 84)
Week 3: 32.69% (17 of 52)
Week 4: 34.29% (12 of 35)
Week 5: 21.74% (5 of 23)
Week 6: 11.11% (2 of 18)
Week 7: 25% (4 of 16)
Week 8: 16.67% (2 of 12)
Week 9: 10% (1 of 10)
Week 10: 22.22% (2 of 9)
Week 10 Thoughts:
-Week ended up being fairly eventful in several ways. For the PAC-12, the big news was both Utah and Oregon winning big games. This keeps them both with 1 loss and if either win out, stand at least a decent chance at CFP bowls (although probably need help). First CFP committee rankings this week will show how committee thinks of top of the PAC-12.
-Georgia beating Florida puts them firmly in control of the SEC East and and in position to challenge for CFP spot.
-Our biggest moves this week might have been with the Group of 5 Cotton Bowl spot. Both our last 2 undefeated teams lost this week with both Appalachian State of the Sun Belt and SMU of the American going down. Where teams are ranked Tuesday will reveal a lot, but here are my thoughts for the moment.
The 1-loss teams from Conference USA and Sun Belt (Louisiana Tech and Appalachian State) likely need a lot regardless of how they do the rest of the way. If Appalachian State beats South Carolina, it would help a lot, but I still think you are probably talking 3 loss teams winning both the American and Mountain West to put either of them in serious discussion (at the very least, weaker 2-loss teams).
That leaves the 1-loss teams in the American and Mountain West as the biggest contenders. The Mountain West has 1 on each division so they could be on course for a championship game and if you are a fan of a different conference team, you prefer at least one to enter the Mountain West Championship Game with more than 1 loss. The American has four 1-loss teams, but 3 of them are in 1 division. If you are rooting for a team outside the American, you really want Cincinnati to lose on that side to set them up (or someone else if they lost twice) as possible multi loss champions which would be easier to pass over.
Week 11 Thoughts:
-We have 2 games between undefeated teams this week and there will be, at most, only one more after this week in the regular season. They are undefeated LSU @ undefeated Alabama and undefeated Penn State @ undefeated Minnesota.
-Our other undefeated teams play in the following: Maryland @ undefeated Ohio State, undefeated Baylor @ TCU, and undefeated Clemson @ NC State
-Only one winless team plays this week and they are very unlikely to win: Winless New Mexico State @ Ole Miss.
Undefeated LSU @ undefeated Alabama: Obviously the game of the week. It will be #1 vs. #2 in both the AP and Coaches even if the committee ends up sliding Ohio State in over one of the two. Winner is highly unlikely to drop 2 more and thus this is almost certain to represent the SEC West. This game does not just matter for the winner though. The loser of this game will still be very much in the national conversation, but without a chance at a conference championship, they probably can't afford for it to get too out of hand.
Undefeated Penn State @ Undefeated Minnesota: The Golden Gophers started this year looking like they were a bad team who found ways to win. Lately they have been looking pretty good. If they win this, they control destiny in the Big Ten West and can even afford to lose to either Wisconsin or Iowa and still get to Indianapolis. If they lose though, the Iowa/Wisconsin winner controls their destiny again. On the other side, if Penn State wins this, it removes the biggest hurdle before a possible huge Ohio State/Penn State game two weeks later.
Undefeated Baylor @ TCU: Baylor is not a big favorite here, but they haven't been all season. With the PAC-12 top teams fairing well lately and Oklahoma's loss, the Big 12 very much benefits from the Bears continuing to win.
Missouri @ 1-loss Georgia: Obviously the bulldogs are big favorites, but Missouri does actually control their destiny in the SEC East. Win this and they return to conversations.
1-loss Appalachian State @ South Carolina: Appalachian State blew a lot of the meaning this game would have had with their loss last week, but there still a small chance for them with enough chaos in the American and Mountain West. They need this one though.
1-loss Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech almost came through against Notre Dame last week. Nice for the ACC having Wake slowly move up ranking though and this could either push them a bit more or push them out.
Wyoming @ 1-loss Boise State: Wyoming hasn't been bad and Boise State has struggled a bit of late. It is not a foregone conclusion the broncos are going to the Mountain West Championship Game.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American Athletic: 0, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 3, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 0, total: 7
Clemson
Baylor
Minnesota
Ohio State
Penn State
Alabama
Louisiana State
1-loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 4, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 0, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 12
Cincinnati
Louisiana Tech
San Diego State
Oregon
Utah
Navy
Georgia
Wake Forest
Memphis
Boise State
Oklahoma
Appalachian State
Southern Methodist
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, independents: 1, total: 3
Rice
Akron
New Mexico State
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Missouri is under suspension (they were appealing it), so they cannot participate in any post season games, including the CG.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/missouri-football-in-limbo-as-program-waits-for-ncaa-to-rule-on-its-bowl-ban-appeal/ (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/missouri-football-in-limbo-as-program-waits-for-ncaa-to-rule-on-its-bowl-ban-appeal/)
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There is no change this week to the remaining potential games between undefeated teams. As @ohio1317 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=27) covered above, there will definitely be two this week:
- LSU at Bama
- PSU at Minnesota
Then, after that there will be one more potential game between undefeated teams this season, either:
- 11/23 PSU at tOSU, or
- 12/7 tOSU vs Minnesota (B1GCG)
Undefeated teams in the polls (using AP here until the CFP comes out tonight):
- #1 LSU
- #2 Bama
- #3 Ohio State
- #4 Clemson
- #5 Penn State
- #11 Baylor
- #13 Minnesota
Now we are down to a contiguous block of five undefeated P5 teams at the top and two more undefeated P5 teams a little behind that. At least one of the top-5 will lose this week (LSU/Bama) and with Minnesota playing Penn State either Penn State will lose and Minnesota will move way up or Minnesota will cease to be undefeated.
Last week I stated that nine teams controlled their own destiny with regard to the CFP:
- Seven P5 undefeated teams
- Two 1-loss SEC teams
Now that is down to eight because Florida has lost control.
Regarding the undefeated teams that are NOT already in the top-5:
#11 Baylor:
The Bears' OOC was atrocious and they have yet to play Oklahoma so their best wins are KSU and ISU (two 3-2 B12 teams). Coming up they have TCU (2-3 in the B12), OU (4-1), TX (3-2), and Kansas (1-5). Oklahoma is obviously the big one but TCU and Texas are both somewhat up-and-down teams that could either take out Baylor or get blown out by Baylor just depending on which of their teams show up.
#13 Minnesota:
The Gophers' OOC wasn't quite as bad as the Bears but it wasn't good and they have somehow managed to play five B1G opponents without playing any that are better than .500 in the league. That is about to change in a big way. Three of Minnesota's last four opponents are ranked #18 or better and have records of 6-2 or better. In the next two weeks Minnesota hosts 8-0 #5 Penn State then travels to 6-2 #18 Iowa.
The next two weeks will tell us what we have been waiting to find out about the Bears and Gophers. If they both win their next two, they will almost certainly both move up into the contiguous block of undefeated P5 teams at the top (or at least VERY close to it).
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-Our biggest moves this week might have been with the Group of 5 Cotton Bowl spot. Both our last 2 undefeated teams lost this week with both Appalachian State of the Sun Belt and SMU of the American going down. Where teams are ranked Tuesday will reveal a lot, but here are my thoughts for the moment.
The 1-loss teams from Conference USA and Sun Belt (Louisiana Tech and Appalachian State) likely need a lot regardless of how they do the rest of the way. If Appalachian State beats South Carolina, it would help a lot, but I still think you are probably talking 3 loss teams winning both the American and Mountain West to put either of them in serious discussion (at the very least, weaker 2-loss teams).
That leaves the 1-loss teams in the American and Mountain West as the biggest contenders. The Mountain West has 1 on each division so they could be on course for a championship game and if you are a fan of a different conference team, you prefer at least one to enter the Mountain West Championship Game with more than 1 loss. The American has four 1-loss teams, but 3 of them are in 1 division. If you are rooting for a team outside the American, you really want Cincinnati to lose on that side to set them up (or someone else if they lost twice) as possible multi loss champions which would be easier to pass over.
In the AP poll, the G5 teams are ranked as follows:
- #17 Cincinnati, 7-1, AAC-East
- #19 Memphis, 8-1, AAC-West
- #21 Boise State, 7-1, MWC-Mountain
- #23 SMU, 8-1, AAC-West
- #24 SDSU, 7-1, MWC-West
- #25 Navy, 7-1, AAC-West
- ORV UCF, 7-2, AAC-East
- ORV LaTech, 7-1, CUSA-West
- ORV ApSt, 7-1, SunBelt-East
Cincinnati:
The Bearcats' only loss was to Ohio State but it wasn't close (42-0) and they inexplicably struggled with a horrible ECU team last weekend. That said, they already defeated the AAC-East's second place team (UCF) so they easily control their own destiny to the AACCG. What is left on their schedule, however, is not as easy as one might think:
- 11/9 vs 0-5/2-7 UCONN, should be an easy win
- 11/16 at 2-2/4-4 USF, this could be tricky
- 11/23 vs 2-2/5-3 Temple, this could be tricky
- 11/29 at 4-1/8-1 Memphis, this could be a preview of the AACCG because Cincy and Memphis are in opposite divisions.
- AACCG (assuming they make it), likely Navy, Memphis, or SMU
Memphis:
The Tigers already beat both SMU and Navy so they control their own destiny to the AACCG. That said, both NAVY and SMU still have only one loss each so the Tiger have no room for error. They are off this weekend then:
- 11/16 at 1-4/3-6 Houston, should be an easy win
- 11/23 at 2-2/4-4 USF, this could be tricky
- 11/29 vs 4-0/7-1 Cincy, this could be a preview of the AACCG
Boise State:
The Broncos' lone loss was OOC at BYU. Additionally, they already defeated Air Force. They control their own destiny in the MWC-Mountain but they still have to play two 1-loss MWC-Mountain teams (Wyoming this weekend and UtahSt 11/23) so they do not have much room for error.
SMU:
The Mustangs' loss to Memphis deprived them of control in the AAC-West but they only need one Memphis loss to get right back into the lead for the AACCG.
SDSU:
The Aztecs' loss was non-divisional so they control their own destiny in the MWC-West but their last three MWC games are against the teams currently second, third, and fourth in the division so they do not have much room for error.
Navy:
The Midshipmen lost to Memphis so they need the Tigers to lose but if that does happen then the Navy/SMU game in a couple weeks could be for the AAC-West title. If Navy wins the AACCG it could create a problem for the committee. The Midshipmen have one game (Army) after everybody else is done and assigned to a bowl. If Navy were to get the G5 bid then lose to Army, the second highest ranked G5 Champion would have a very legitimate beef.
UCF:
Aside from having two losses overall, the problem for the Knights is that they lost to Cincy so they need help to get back into the AAC-East race.
LaTech:
The problem for LaTech is that, as a member of CUSA they are not going to get many opportunities to prove themselves.
ApSt:
The Mountaineers, as members of the SunBelt, have the same problem that LaTech has but they scheduled USCe this weekend and that will help if they win. However, even if they do win the USCe game, their other problem is that with their loss to GaSo, they no longer control their own destiny in the SunBelt-East.
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G5 teams in the newly released CFP rankings:
- #20 Cincy, 7-1, AAC-East
- #21 Memphis, 8-1, AAC-West
- #22 Boise St, 7-1, MWC-Mountain
- #24 Navy, 7-1, AAC-West
- #25 SMU, 8-1, AAC-West
The G5 spot definitely looks like it is the AAC's to lose but they could certainly lose it.
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I hope Cincy runs the table, though that of course will make Fickle's seat hot in reverse.
OSU would have an outstanding win if they did so. It would be interesting if OSU goes 12-0 and blows out PSU and UM and then is upset in the CG.
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Akron's last realistic shot at a W was at Bowling Green, and they got blown out 35-6.
Eastern Michigan is their next game. While the Eagles are 4-5 with a win over the Illini, they are also 1-4 in Mac play, which shows a strong downward trend in their performance.
If the Zips can't beat the EMU's at home, then they will probably have to eat the big bad bagel; barring a monumental upset vs either Miami on the road or Ohio U at home.
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Rice and NMSU should play each other. Both are in bordering states. Both are scary bad right now. Both have fallen off quite a bit in prestige over the last couple of decades, with Rice going from the SWC heyday to CUSA's skin suit made up almost entirely out of FCS call ups. NMSU is a team without a seat after the Conference realignment game of musical chairs, their FBS status clinging on for dear life.
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Rice and NMSU should play each other. Both are in bordering states. Both are scary bad right now. Both have fallen off quite a bit in prestige over the last couple of decades, with Rice going from the SWC heyday to CUSA's skin suit made up almost entirely out of FCS call ups. NMSU is a team without a seat after the Conference realignment game of musical chairs, their FBS status clinging on for dear life.
Border States? Ok that's true, but...
Lol, Rice is almost a 800 mile drive from NMSU. They are nowhere close to each other.
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Nothing is "near" NMSU except UTep and New Mexico, both of which they already play annually.
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Akron's last realistic shot at a W was at Bowling Green, and they got blown out 35-6.
Eastern Michigan is their next game. While the Eagles are 4-5 with a win over the Illini, they are also 1-4 in Mac play, which shows a strong downward trend in their performance.
If the Zips can't beat the EMU's at home, then they will probably have to eat the big bad bagel; barring a monumental upset vs either Miami on the road or Ohio U at home.
Yeah, in early October I was thinking EMUs coach would look good keeping his colors and state, but they've been dismal since then.
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I presume if Bama nips LSU close, and LSU finishes out the season 11-1, they would be in the discussion as well (and vice versa). A close road loss to a top 3 team ....
I personally think a CG win should count for more than "half a game". I'd take a 12-1 CG winner over an 11-1 at large 95% of the time. Clemson would be the 5% this year.
The other side of course is the 12-1 CG loser, which I think should rarely get into the playoff.