CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: rolltidefan on November 04, 2019, 02:36:32 PM
-
#1 LSU @ #1 Alabama - guess who's back, back again... no clue why this is a 2:30 game, thanks for nothing cbs, but it should be a good one. i got $5 says this one doesn't end 9-6. lsu trying to "out alabama" alabama again with their dl/lb dropping like flies heading into the game. if they really want to test it, they need to get their qb hurt. high flying contest, scoreboard can't handle the chaos, lsu arises from the carnage with the ball last and the win.
vandy @ uf - uf gets back on winning track easily.
arky vs western kentucky - arky gets win#2.
mizz @ uga - mizzou with a chance to sneak out an upset. but uga wakes up enough to squeak out a win in the end.
usc vs app st - gonna be a dog fight, and usc takes another L.
tenn @ kentucky - the showdown of showdowns. game of the century. for all the marbles, winner takes 4th place in the east. stoops gets one last laugh before moving on to a bigger school this off season.
-
Divinity off the team. Sounds like he failed a drug test, must not be his first or he'd just be suspended. Bama will win anyway, Tua, no Tua, Divinity, no Divinity. Burrow may be as good as Tua, Alabama is still better everywhere else. 14+
Missouri has not been playing well away from home. Dawgs big.
-
LSU 27 Bama 24 A game worthy of eyeballs.
UGA 41 Mizzou 20
USC 24 App State 21
Arky 26 Directional Kentucky 16
Tenn 28 UK 20
-
You guys who think LSU is going to win this are all nuts. I'd like to know exactly what you're basing it on. They could play an uncharacteristic and improbable perfect game while Alabama wets the bed and take advantage of the puncher's chance that exists for the first time in this game since 2014, but it's still not likely and Alabama wins this game 8 or 9 times out of 10.
-
If LSU wins 15 times out of 100, we're not nuts because you're saying there is a possibility.
This LSU team looks impressive to me, and Coach O is a crazy ogre who can pull this out of the frying pan.
-
The Mizzou appeal of the PS ban is still lingering.
-
Coaching staffs may be pretty comparable. QBs appear to be comparable. That leaves 21 other guys on both sides of the ball, where Alabama is pretty much better, except for the Tigers freshman cornerback and maybe the safety.
Alabama's offense is also flat-out simpler, and that's a good thing. Because of the speed and athleticism of their WRs and the Tigers' penchant for not tackling this season, they turn easily executable plays into big gains and points. Tua doesn't have to have a great day, he just has to keep reading the defense well and hit the easy stuff. We could't stop it last year and this defense is not as good as last year.
On the other hand, Burrow is asked to do quite a lot in this offense. He needs to be on fire and his O-line too to do what they do. LSU's OL has not fared well against Alabama for a few years now. Burrow has had a lot of great days, but a "good" day won't keep pace with them. Auburn made him have a "good" day and the team scored just 23 points. Auburn and Alabama have comparable defenses in SP+ and FEI, 23 points won't get it done. There's more moving parts to what LSU does and it's more likely to bog down. Alabama runs fairly simple stuff with nuclear athletes, and seems much less likely to bog down.
This does seem like LSU's best chance in a few years, and as I say, I think they do have a puncher's chance. With some breaks, a near flawless game and Alabama crapping the bed, it can happen. I wouldn't call it likely.
-
So, you're saying there's a chance ...
-
Loser of the UA/LSU game is the winner... because they'll get to skip playing UGA and still make the playoff.
Curious if any Bama fans think playing Tua is a good idea?
Anyway, I expect Bama to handle LSU, Tua or no. The refs will not cover up the holes in LSU's pass protection in this game. Burrow may suffer.
Also, I think Mizz gives UGA all they want--but come up short.
.02
-
I don't think UGA will be too sturdy a test vs either one of these teams down the road.
I do think it's interesting how different these Bama and LSU squads are from the same schools 3-4 years ago. Neither is simply out-talenting everyone else, running the ball and beating you up and basically coming at you like Joe Frazier anymore. They're both opened up on offense, which inevitably loosens up their own defenses. I don't think 2012 Saban would like 2018/19 Bama's team style of play.
-
I didn't think UGA would stand up to Bama in the last two games very well, and they led both games right down to the finish.
I don't understand this UGA team though.
-
You guys who think LSU is going to win this are all nuts. I'd like to know exactly what you're basing it on. They could play an uncharacteristic and improbable perfect game while Alabama wets the bed and take advantage of the puncher's chance that exists for the first time in this game since 2014, but it's still not likely and Alabama wins this game 8 or 9 times out of 10.
6212 simulations at posting. LSU wins 4314 and Bama wins 1898.
http://www.ncaagamesim.com/FB_GameSimulator.asp?HomeTeam=Alabama&HomeYear=2020&AwayTeam=Louisiana+State&AwayYear=2020&hs=1&hSchedule=0 (http://www.ncaagamesim.com/FB_GameSimulator.asp?HomeTeam=Alabama&HomeYear=2020&AwayTeam=Louisiana+State&AwayYear=2020&hs=1&hSchedule=0)
-
I don't think UGA will be too sturdy a test vs either one of these teams down the road.
I do think it's interesting how different these Bama and LSU squads are from the same schools 3-4 years ago. Neither is simply out-talenting everyone else, running the ball and beating you up and basically coming at you like Joe Frazier anymore. They're both opened up on offense, which inevitably loosens up their own defenses. I don't think 2012 Saban would like 2018/19 Bama's team style of play.
2012 ALA2262 sure doesn't like 2018/19 Bama's team style of play.
-
These games usually come down to unpredictable things like turnovers, key penalties, third downs that are a yard short, a tipped pass that falls to the ground, or not.
-
6212 simulations at posting. LSU wins 4314 and Bama wins 1898.
http://www.ncaagamesim.com/FB_GameSimulator.asp?HomeTeam=Alabama&HomeYear=2020&AwayTeam=Louisiana+State&AwayYear=2020&hs=1&hSchedule=0 (http://www.ncaagamesim.com/FB_GameSimulator.asp?HomeTeam=Alabama&HomeYear=2020&AwayTeam=Louisiana+State&AwayYear=2020&hs=1&hSchedule=0)
fwiw, those sims have mac jones at qb, not tua.
-
I don't trust simulations done on a Mac at all ever.
-
I don't trust simulations done on a Mac at all ever.
:cool2:
-
I think LSU is 7 points better but Alabama's home field is worth 3 points and SEC refs are worth another 7 for the Tide so I have Bama 38 35.