CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Cincydawg on November 01, 2019, 10:10:23 AM
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Baylor of course remained undefeated in a close game last night, great for them. Minnesota hosts PSU in a game few think they will win, and Baylor is @ TCU and then hosts OU and Texas. As I mentioned before, I enjoy seasons (most of them have this) where a couple of teams get to 8-0 or so unexpectedly. Both teams have a solid shot at 10-2, and just need an upset to exceed that (and of course a near upset would drop them down, but 9-3 is still worth if they do that).
Some good coaching to win the games that they had a shot at winning, all of them, here I think.
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I already said this in another thread (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/remaining-undefeated-1-loss-and-winless-teams-after-week-9/), but here is my take on Baylor:
Baylor's near-loss against WVU reinforces the suspicion that a lot of us already held that Baylor isn't very good and their 5-0/8-0 record is mostly a product of a relatively weak schedule so far. WVU is a 1-4/3-5 team that already lost to:
- Mizzou by 31
- Texas by 11
- Iowa State by 24
- Oklahoma by 38
Baylor is now 5-0/8-0 but their wins have been:
- Over FCS Stephen F Austin
- Over middling CUSA UTSA
- Over perennial Bottom Ten resident Rice
- Over 3-2/5-3 ISU by two
- Over 2-2/5-2 KSU by 19
- Over 1-4/3-5 TxTech by a FG
- Over 2-3/5-3 OkSU by 18
- Over 1-4/3-5 WVU by a FG
Of Baylor's eight wins, only the KSU and OkSU wins really move the needle in any meaningful way. The rest are either very close or against crap opposition or both.
Their four remaining games represent a substantial step up in competition:
- AT 2-2/4-3 TCU
- vs 4-1/7-1 OU
- vs 3-2/5-3 TX
- AT 1-4/3-5 Kansas
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Minnesota, I think, is somewhat similar but I think they are more intriguing because they seem to be improving.
If you look at Minnesota's schedule and results as a whole it isn't very impressive. They have one score wins over the following:
- An FCS team (SDST)
- A sub .500 MWC team (Fresno)
- A decent (for the Sun Belt) Sun Belt team (GASO)
- A bad 1-4/2-6 B1G team (Purdue)
Then they have four blowouts of B1G teams with records of 0-5, 1-4, 2-3, 2-3.
What makes Minnesota intriguing, at least to me, is that the four blowouts are their last four games. If you look at those four:
- Their 35 point win over Rutgers is not quite as good as Michigan (52) but it is better than Iowa (30), same as IU (35), and about the same as UMD (41)
- Their 42 point win over Maryland is not quite as good as PSU (59) but it is better than IU (6), better than PU (26) and way better than RU (-41).
- Their 23 point win over Illinois is better than UW (-1), better than Michigan (17), better than UNL (4), and better than PU (-18).
- Their 27 point win over Nebraska is not quite as good as tOSU (41) but it is better than IU (7), better than ILL (-4), and better than NU (-3)
Over those last four games they aren't quite at tOSU/PSU's level but they look like they might be at Michigan/Wisconsin/Iowa's level or possibly even a little above that. If they are, then 11-1 and a B1GCG appearance with a CFP bid on the line is very much on the table.
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Yup, they are similar, benefiting from favorable initial schedule but also winning games they could have lost to teams roughly as good as they.
And now of course things start to get tougher. I still find it fun.
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Baylor reminds me of 2010 Michigan State. They got to 8-0, and ranked #8, but beat WMU, FAU, Northern Colorado, Illinois and Northwestern (with a 4th quarter comebac) for 5 wins. They had one legit win, over Wisconsin at home, but missed OSU on the schedule that year. Beat a 5-0 Michigan team, that was ranked #17, but wound up 7-5. Needed Little Giants to beat Notre Dame, who was #22, but wound up 7-5.
Then Iowa blew their doors off, turned around to beat a bad Purdue team by 4, and then a mediocre Penn State team to finish 11-1, before Alabama blasted them in the Citrus Bowl.
It was a good MSU team, but they missed OSU, survived several close calls, had a couple big early wins turn out to not be so good, and went 1-2 against the good teams they played (with the losses being 37-6 and 49-7)
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Yeah, UGA in 1980 had a similar kind of year, close calls they ended up winning against so-so teams and not playing Alabama, plus the final win over ND that was a bit of a fluke too.
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Baylor has got a good coach in Matt Rhule. TCU is their traditional rival so the game next week should be a good one.
Sic'em Bears!
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I can dream at least another week or so.
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I kind of enjoy both these teams because no one has jumped on the disrespect bandwagon just yet. Everyone is kind of like those are some nice stories but we don’t really yet trust it in terms of any kind of title race, but who knows? It’s sort of nice.
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as a Badger, yer not supposed to enjoy the boat rower
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I kind of enjoy both these teams because no one has jumped on the disrespect bandwagon just yet. Everyone is kind of like those are some nice stories but we don’t really yet trust it in terms of any kind of title race, but who knows? It’s sort of nice.
At least for me, I have no problem taking a wait-and-see approach with teams like this because they do have difficult games upcoming. Thus, I feel no need to denigrate them NOW because in a few weeks they'll either have earned respect or nobody will be talking about them anymore. It is different when people start saying that SMU or UCF (in past years) should be in the CFP because they have played similar schedules that aren't going to get any tougher.
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If they go 10-2, they will be in a level of discussion short of the playoffs.