CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 28, 2019, 04:21:25 PM
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B1G-East:
- 5-0 Ohio State: Has earned a mulligan and can lose any game other than Penn State and still be guaranteed a spot in Indianapolis.
- 5-0 Penn State: Has earned a mulligan and can lose any game other than Ohio State and still be guaranteed a spot in Indianapolis.
- 3-2 Michigan: Needs a lot of help. With their loss to PSU, Michigan's shortest route to Indianapolis is for PSU to lose exactly two divisional games (including tOSU), tOSU to lose exactly one B1G game (by definition this would be divisional because tOSU is done with B1G-W opponents), and the Wolverines to win out. That would create a three-way tie at 7-2 between the Wolverines, Nittany Lions, and Buckeyes. The Wolverines would ultimately win that tie because the H2H2H would be tied 1-1 and Michigan would win based on a better divisional record than the other two.
- 3-2 Indiana: Needs a lot of help. Their situation is slightly worse than Michigan's because both of Indiana's losses were within the division (tOSU, MSU). Thus, they pretty much need tOSU to lose three games and PSU to lose once in addition to beating PSU themselves.
- 2-3 Michigan State: The Spartans are probably mathematically eliminated. In theory they could finish 6-3 and tied for the B1G-E with the tOSU/PSU winner but they lost to both of those teams so they would need other teams that they defeated to also be involved in that tie and that is unlikely in the extreme.
- 1-4 Maryland: The Terps are officially mathematically eliminated because they can do no better than 5-4 while the tOSU/PSU winner can do no worse than 6-3.
- 0-5 Rutgers: eliminated.
B1G-West:
- 5-0 Minnesota: The Gophers have earned at least one mulligan. They can lose any one game or any two games other than UW and IA and still be guaranteed a spot in Indianapolis.
- 3-2 Wisconsin: The Badgers are not out of this race yet. As long as they get back to winning and Minnesota loses to somebody, the Ax game could well be for the B1G-W crown.
- 3-2 Iowa: Same as Wisconsin. Note that the Badgers and Hawkeyes are both off this week. Next week they play each other while Minnesota plays Penn State. So long as PSU beats Minnesota, the IA/UW winner will regain control of their B1GCG chances.
- 2-3 Nebraska: The Cornhuskers aren't technically eliminated but they need all kinds of help mostly in the form of Minnesota tanking.
- 2-3 Illinois: A few weeks ago I described Illinois' bowl chances as "remote". Now they look pretty good for a bowl and they actually have a theoretical chance at a B1G-W Championship. That said, the B1G-W chances are remote. They lost to Nebraska with whom they are tied and Minnesota. The Gophers are three games ahead of them with four games to go so they would need a LOT of help.
- 1-4 Purdue: The Boilermakers are technically alive as they could theoretically finish 5-4 but that would be no better than tied with Minnesota whom they lost to so they would still need a lot of things to break their way over and above Minnesota tanking.
- 0-5 Northwestern: The Wildcats are mathematically eliminated because they can't catch Minnesota.
Bowl position:
- 8-0 Ohio State: clinched
- 8-0 Penn State: clinched
- 8-0 Minnesota: clinched
- 6-2 Michigan: clinched
- 6-2 Indiana: clinched
- 6-2 Wisconsin: clinched
- 6-2 Iowa: clinched
- 4-4 Michigan State: The Spartans only need two wins and they still have Rutgers and Maryland on the schedule so they should make it but Illinois in two weeks hardly looks like a gimmie and Michigan in three weeks looks beyond their abilities so if they suffer an upset . . .
- 4-4 Illinois: The Illini only need two wins and they still have Rutgers and Northwestern on the schedule so they should make it but their other two remaining games (@MSU, @IA) are tough so they likely can't afford an upset.
- 4-4 Nebraska: The Cornhuskers only need two wins and they still have Purdue and Maryland on the schedule so there is a good chance but both of those games are on the road so it is far from a done deal. If they lose one of those they will have to knock off either Wisconsin or Iowa to make it.
- 3-5 Maryland: The Terps need three more wins and their four remaining games are vsM, @tOSU, vUNL, @MSU. I just don't see it. Even with wins over Nebraska and Michigan State they would still need a massive upset of either Ohio State or Michigan.
- 2-6 Rutgers: The Liberty win merely held off Rutgers' inevitable bowl ineligibility. They would need to win out to make it including wins over both the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions. Not happening.
- 2-6 Purdue: The Boilermakers would need to win out including a win in Madison. Not happening.
- 1-6 Northwestern: The Wildcats haven't scored a TD in almost a month. Do you think they are going bowling?
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B1G-East:
- 5-0 Ohio State: Has earned a mulligan and can lose any game other than Penn State and still be guaranteed a spot in Indianapolis.
- 5-0 Penn State: Has earned a mulligan and can lose any game other than Ohio State and still be guaranteed a spot in Indianapolis.
- 3-2 Michigan: Needs a lot of help. With their loss to PSU, Michigan's shortest route to Indianapolis is for PSU to lose exactly two divisional games (including tOSU), tOSU to lose exactly one B1G game (by definition this would be divisional because tOSU is done with B1G-W opponents), and the Wolverines to win out. That would create a three-way tie at 7-2 between the Wolverines, Nittany Lions, and Buckeyes. The Wolverines would ultimately win that tie because the H2H2H would be tied 1-1 and Michigan would win based on a better divisional record than the other two.
- 3-2 Indiana: Needs a lot of help. Their situation is slightly worse than Michigan's because both of Indiana's losses were within the division (tOSU, MSU). Thus, they pretty much need tOSU to lose three games and PSU to lose once in addition to beating PSU themselves.
- 2-3 Michigan State: The Spartans are probably mathematically eliminated. In theory they could finish 6-3 and tied for the B1G-E with the tOSU/PSU winner but they lost to both of those teams so they would need other teams that they defeated to also be involved in that tie and that is unlikely in the extreme.
- 1-4 Maryland: The Terps are officially mathematically eliminated because they can do no better than 5-4 while the tOSU/PSU winner can do no worse than 6-3.
- 0-5 Rutgers: eliminated.
B1G-West:
- 5-0 Minnesota: The Gophers have earned at least one mulligan. They can lose any one game or any two games other than UW and IA and still be guaranteed a spot in Indianapolis.
- 3-2 Wisconsin: The Badgers are not out of this race yet. As long as they get back to winning and Minnesota loses to somebody, the Ax game could well be for the B1G-W crown.
- 3-2 Iowa: Same as Wisconsin. Note that the Badgers and Hawkeyes are both off this week. Next week they play each other while Minnesota plays Penn State. So long as PSU beats Minnesota, the IA/UW winner will regain control of their B1GCG chances.
- 2-3 Nebraska: The Cornhuskers aren't technically eliminated but they need all kinds of help mostly in the form of Minnesota tanking.
- 2-3 Illinois: A few weeks ago I described Illinois' bowl chances as "remote". Now they look pretty good for a bowl and they actually have a theoretical chance at a B1G-W Championship. That said, the B1G-W chances are remote. They lost to Nebraska with whom they are tied and Minnesota. The Gophers are three games ahead of them with four games to go so they would need a LOT of help.
- 1-4 Purdue: The Boilermakers are technically alive as they could theoretically finish 5-4 but that would be no better than tied with Minnesota whom they lost to so they would still need a lot of things to break their way over and above Minnesota tanking.
- 0-5 Northwestern: The Wildcats are mathematically eliminated because they can't catch Minnesota.
Bowl position:
- 8-0 Ohio State: clinched
- 8-0 Penn State: clinched
- 8-0 Minnesota: clinched
- 6-2 Michigan: clinched
- 6-2 Indiana: clinched
- 6-2 Wisconsin: clinched
- 6-2 Iowa: clinched
- 4-4 Michigan State: The Spartans only need two wins and they still have Rutgers and Maryland on the schedule so they should make it but Illinois in two weeks hardly looks like a gimmie and Michigan in three weeks looks beyond their abilities so if they suffer an upset . . .
- 4-4 Illinois: The Illini only need two wins and they still have Rutgers and Northwestern on the schedule so they should make it but their other two remaining games (@MSU, @IA) are tough so they likely can't afford an upset.
- 4-4 Nebraska: The Cornhuskers only need two wins and they still have Purdue and Maryland on the schedule so there is a good chance but both of those games are on the road so it is far from a done deal. If they lose one of those they will have to knock off either Wisconsin or Iowa to make it.
- 3-5 Maryland: The Terps need three more wins and their four remaining games are vsM, @tOSU, vUNL, @MSU. I just don't see it. Even with wins over Nebraska and Michigan State they would still need a massive upset of either Ohio State or Michigan.
- 2-6 Rutgers: The Liberty win merely held off Rutgers' inevitable bowl ineligibility. They would need to win out to make it including wins over both the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions. Not happening.
- 2-6 Purdue: The Boilermakers would need to win out including a win in Madison. Not happening.
- 1-6 Northwestern: The Wildcats haven't scored a TD in almost a month. Do you think they are going bowling?
How does Ohio State losing exactly one game create a three-way tie where they are 7-2?
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Yeah, I think UM is effectively eliminated at this point in the East. Obviously if they win out and go 3-0 against rivals, then you'd have to say it is Harbaugh's best season. Lots to play for, just not a division title.
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I dunno could happen if they win out.....maybe depending on what PSU did
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Interesting, to me, how OSU-PSU is virtually (and perhaps actually) for the East, sort of like UGA-UF.
I missed how OSU could lose one game and ve 7-2.
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How does Ohio State losing exactly one game create a three-way tie where they are 7-2?
With their loss to PSU, Michigan's shortest route to Indianapolis is for PSU to lose exactly two divisional games (including tOSU), tOSU to lose exactly one B1G game (by definition this would be divisional because tOSU is done with B1G-W opponents), and the Wolverines to win out. That would create a three-way tie at 7-2 between the Wolverines, Nittany Lions, and Buckeyes. The Wolverines would ultimately win that tie because the H2H2H would be tied 1-1 and Michigan would win based on a better divisional record than the other two.
I think he means OSU loses one OTHER conference game AND Michigan.
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With their loss to PSU, Michigan's shortest route to Indianapolis is for PSU to lose exactly two divisional games (including tOSU), tOSU to lose exactly one B1G game (by definition this would be divisional because tOSU is done with B1G-W opponents), and the Wolverines to win out. That would create a three-way tie at 7-2 between the Wolverines, Nittany Lions, and Buckeyes. The Wolverines would ultimately win that tie because the H2H2H would be tied 1-1 and Michigan would win based on a better divisional record than the other two.
I think he means OSU loses one OTHER conference game AND Michigan.
Yes, this exactly. I stated that Michigan needs to win out which obviously includes beating tOSU.
I guess I should have made clear that the "exactly one game" meant "in addition to losing to Michigan". The reason I had that "exactly" in there is that Michigan would need Ohio State to finish 7-2 NOT 6-3 because Michigan would lose a two-way tie with just Penn State but win a three way tie with PSU and tOSU. Ie, tOSU tanking and PSU losing twice doesn't get Michigan to the B1GCG.
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Maryland
@ Rutgers
Penn State
@ Michigan
If we ASSUME the first two are Ws, OSU needs to lose the last two and for Michigan to win out, and Penn State also has to lose two more. Somehow.
@ Minnesota (possible)
Indiana
@ OSU
Rutger
So, PSU would need to lose @ Minny and against UI and then beat Ohio State.
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Maryland
@ Rutgers
Penn State
@ Michigan
If we ASSUME the first two are Ws, OSU needs to lose the last two and for Michigan to win out, and Penn State also has to lose two more. Somehow.
@ Minnesota (possible)
Indiana
@ OSU
Rutger
So, PSU would need to lose @ Minny and against UI and then beat Ohio State.
That wouldn't work for Michigan. It would create a three-way tie at 7-2 but PSU would be 2-0 H2H2H while Michigan was 1-1 and tOSU was 0-2. Penn State wins that.
The least unlikely scenario that would get Michigan to the B1GCG is this:
- Michigan wins out (including beating tOSU)
- Ohio State loses to . . . Maryland?
- Penn State loses to Ohio State and Indiana
The Buckeyes, Nittany Lions, and Wolverines would all be 7-2:
- tOSU: Lost to Maryland and Michigan
- PSU: Lost to tOSU and Indiana
- M: Lost to PSU and UW
The H2H2H is tied up 1-1 (tOSU>PSU>M>tOSU)
The next tiebreaker is divisional record which would be:
- 8-1 Michigan
- 7-2 Ohio State
- 7-2 Penn State
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We can really stop talking about it because this scenario requires a Buckeye loss to either Rutger or Maryland.
OSU - PSU winner will take the East.
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Yeah, I think my confusion is irrelevant, fortunately. Thanks.
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We can really stop talking about it because this scenario requires a Buckeye loss to either Rutger or Maryland.
OSU - PSU winner will take the East.
Yeah, I think my confusion is irrelevant, fortunately. Thanks.
Yes, the short versions are these:
B1G-East:
Barring a VERY unlikely series of upsets, the tOSU/PSU winner goes to Indianapolis.
B1G-West:
Everybody is waiting on Minnesota to start losing. If they do, then the UW/IA winner will probably go to Indianapolis. If not then obviously Minnesota will go.
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Go Gophers!
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Yes, the short versions are these:
B1G-East:
Barring a VERY unlikely series of upsets, the tOSU/PSU winner goes to Indianapolis.
B1G-West:
Everybody is waiting on Minnesota to start losing. If they do, then the UW/IA winner will probably go to Indianapolis. If not then obviously Minnesota will go.
That's what I need, the Cliff notes version. Thanks. :singing:
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Minny schedule:
Penn State
@ Iowa
@ NW
Wisconsin
2-2 would be a great result there I think, and 10-2 would be an exceptional regular season.
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Minny schedule:
Penn State
@ Iowa
@ NW
Wisconsin
2-2 would be a great result there I think, and 10-2 would be an exceptional regular season.
I agree and it *MIGHT* get them to Indianapolis. It depends on which two they lose. If they beat the Iowa/Wisconsin winner then they go. If they lose to the Iowa/Wisconsin winner then they'll need the Iowa/Wisconsin winner to lose another game.
Iowa remaining schedule:
- @ Wisconsin
- vs Minnesota
- vs Illinois
- @ Nebraska
Wisconsin remaining schedule:
- vs Iowa
- @ Nebraska
- vs Purdue
- @ Minnesota
As a practical matter, if the Iowa/Wisconsin winner beats Minnesota they are unlikely to lose another game. Thus, for all practical purposes I would put it this way (note, this isn't mathematical, other things *COULD* happen, this is just the very likely outcome):
- If Minnesota beats the UW/IA winner, they go.
- If the UW/IA winner beats Minnesota, they go so long as Minnesota loses at least one other game.
- Everybody else's chance is probably <2%.
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So if I had to guess my bowl projections would be
1. CFP - OSU 13-0
2. Rose - PSU 11-1
3. Citrus - Wiscy 10-3
4. Outback - Mich 9-3
5. Holiday- Iowa 9-3
6. Gator- Minn 9-3
7. Pinstripe - Indy 8-4
8. Redbox - MSU 7-5
9. Detroit- Neb 6-6
10. Whatever the bowl in Texas is - ILL 6-6
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Georgia might get paired with Wisconsin this year.
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So if I had to guess my bowl projections would be
1. CFP - OSU 13-0
2. Rose - PSU 11-1
3. Citrus - Wiscy 10-3
4. Outback - Mich 9-3
5. Holiday- Iowa 9-3
6. Gator- Minn 9-3
7. Pinstripe - Indy 8-4
8. Redbox - MSU 7-5
9. Detroit- Neb 6-6
10. Whatever the bowl in Texas is - ILL 6-6
Problem is the whole 5 teams in 6 years or whatever. I doubt MSU goes back to the Redbox. I think all 3 projections I've seen for them this week say Pinstripe.
One said MSU-FSU in the Pinstripe. Talk about your all time apathy bowls. Two programs who have been in the CFP already, coming off a disappointing year, with lame duck coaching staffs, playing in freezing cold NYC, in the middle of the afternoon, two days after Christmas.
Yikes.
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In order for the PSU/tOSU winner to miss the B1GCG, that team would have to lose two other games.
In Ohio State's case that would most likely be Michigan and Maryland.
In Penn State's case that would most likely be Minnesota and Indiana.
I think the PSU example is more likely because I think that Indiana has a better shot against PSU than Maryland has against Ohio State. However, the B1G-E representative in Indianapolis would still probably be either Penn State or Ohio State anyway. Here is the hypothetical:
- Penn State loses to Minnesota (11/9) and Indiana (11/16) but beats Ohio State (11/23) and Rutgers (11/30). Penn State finishes 7-2/10-2.
- Ohio State loses to Penn State with UMD, RU, and M TBD and finishes somewhere between 6-3/9-3 and 8-1/11-1.
- Michigan finishes somewhere between 3-5/6-6 and 7-2/10-2 (it really doesn't matter as you will see).
Now the results:
- If Ohio State wins their other three games they finish 8-1/11-1 and win the B1G-E outright despite the loss to PSU. Nobody can catch them, they go to Indianapolis.
- If Ohio State goes 2-1 in their other three games they finish 7-2/10-2 and tied with PSU. Ohio State can't win this tie* so Penn State goes to the B1GCG.
- If Ohio State goes 1-2 or 0-3 in their other three games they finish behind PSU (and possibly also Michigan).
- If Michigan wins out they finish 7-2/10-2 and tied with Penn State. Michigan can't win this tie* so Penn State goes to the B1GCG.
The tie:
The potential tie is either:
- A two-way tie between PSU and tOSU, or
- A two-way tie between PSU and M, or
- A three-way tie between PSU, tOSU, and M
The first tiebreaker is H2H (or H2H2H as appropriate) and PSU would be:
- 1-0 against Ohio State, or
- 1-0 against Michigan, or
- 2-0 against Ohio State and Michigan
Thus, they can't lose the tie.
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Indiana cannot go to the Pinstripe or Redbox bowls this year.
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Indiana cannot go to the Pinstripe or Redbox bowls this year.
I guess if Iowa loses to both Minny and Wiscy, then Indiana can move up to the Gator Bowl and Iowa can drop down to the Redbox. Iowa has been to the Gator and Pinstripe bowls recently, so no need for Iowa to go back to those 2.
Sounds like MSU is resigned to the fact its their turn to go to the Pinstripe, so I am just going to assume they are locked into the Pinstripe unless they upset Michigan.