I think that the Leos will survive this one.This is the middle of a brutal stretch for Penn State. Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, a possible undefeated Minnesota, followed by a possible 7-2 Indiana, and then an easy game with Ohio State.
| #6 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0, 7-0) at Michigan State Spartans (2-2, 4-3) |
| 3:30 - East Lansing, MI - ABC |
| On paper, this looks like one Penn State shouldn't struggle with. Sounds a lot like 2017 and 2018, when Michigan State pulled off a pair of last minute upsets. The difference is that the early gains the Spartan offense seemed to have made, have leveled off, and the defense, which looked beyond reproach, does not look up to its 2018 standard recently. Yes, they shut down Northwestern. Everybody does. In their other three Big Ten games, they have given up 34.3 ppg (#11 in Big Ten) on 7.2 ypp (#14 in Big Ten). Is it arguable that Ohio State, Indiana and Wisconsin are the three best offenses in the Big Ten? It is. But is Penn State also in that conversation? Maybe So while those numbers might be opponent inflated, it seems unlikely to drop substantially this week. What Michigan State can do, to help slow down that Nittany Lions offense, is get to Sean Clifford with just four. Clifford looked lights out early last week, but the more Michigan pressured him, the more he seemed to resort to first look, then run. Over the first five drives, as Penn State accumulated the 21-0 lead, Clifford was 8-12 for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns. For the rest of the game, he had one play where he threw a bomb to K.J. Hamler on a coverage mismatch, and was otherwise 5-12 for 22 yards. Hamler had a big day, but aside from him there was only one reception by a Nittany Lion receiver (Jahan Dotson). Obviously the recipe is to stop Hamler, and force someone else beat you, but as last week showed, that is not easy to do. But that's sort of how Michigan State has been able to beat Hamler. Two years ago they focused on shutting Saquon Barkley down, and held him to 63 rushing yards and 96 total yards. Last year, they wanted to force Trace McSorley to be one dimensional, and held him to 2.8 ypc. But I'm not sure Michigan State has the personnel to do that this year. Josiah Scott, the Spartans #1 cornerback in 2017, who missed most of last year with injury, has not looked good the last month. The safety play from Xavier Henderson has fallen off as the competition has stepped up. And last week, Penn State got plenty of pressure on Shea Patterson, and he did a good job avoiding it, and making plays downfield. Brian Lewerke has escapability, but the ability to make the play downfield is questionable. His completion percentage remains right at 50%, and that has led to a third down conversion rate of just 30.9% in Big Ten games, third worst in the conference. And now they have to do it against a defense that is leading the Big Ten in conference play at 4.3 sacks per game, and is third in 3rd down defense. |
| PENN STATE 31, MICHIGAN STATE 17 |
Great write up, only a few comments off the top of my head.
#6 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0, 7-0) at Michigan State Spartans (2-2, 4-3) 3:30 - East Lansing, MI - ABC On paper, this looks like one Penn State shouldn't struggle with. Sounds a lot like 2017 and 2018, when Michigan State pulled off a pair of last minute upsets. The difference is that the early gains the Spartan offense seemed to have made, have leveled off, and the defense, which looked beyond reproach, does not look up to its 2018 standard recently. Yes, they shut down Northwestern. Everybody does. In their other three Big Ten games, they have given up 34.3 ppg (#11 in Big Ten) on 7.2 ypp (#14 in Big Ten). Is it arguable that Ohio State, Indiana and Wisconsin are the three best offenses in the Big Ten? It is. But is Penn State also in that conversation? Maybe So while those numbers might be opponent inflated, it seems unlikely to drop substantially this week. What Michigan State can do, to help slow down that Nittany Lions offense, is get to Sean Clifford with just four. Clifford looked lights out early last week, but the more Michigan pressured him, the more he seemed to resort to first look, then run. Over the first five drives, as Penn State accumulated the 21-0 lead, Clifford was 8-12 for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns. For the rest of the game, he had one play where he threw a bomb to K.J. Hamler on a coverage mismatch, and was otherwise 5-12 for 22 yards. Hamler had a big day, but aside from him there was only one reception by a Nittany Lion receiver (Jahan Dotson). Obviously the recipe is to stop Hamler, and force someone else beat you, but as last week showed, that is not easy to do. But that's sort of how Michigan State has been able to beat Hamler. Two years ago they focused on shutting Saquon Barkley down, and held him to 63 rushing yards and 96 total yards. Last year, they wanted to force Trace McSorley to be one dimensional, and held him to 2.8 ypc. But I'm not sure Michigan State has the personnel to do that this year. Josiah Scott, the Spartans #1 cornerback in 2017, who missed most of last year with injury, has not looked good the last month. The safety play from Xavier Henderson has fallen off as the competition has stepped up. And last week, Penn State got plenty of pressure on Shea Patterson, and he did a good job avoiding it, and making plays downfield. Brian Lewerke has escapability, but the ability to make the play downfield is questionable. His completion percentage remains right at 50%, and that has led to a third down conversion rate of just 30.9% in Big Ten games, third worst in the conference. And now they have to do it against a defense that is leading the Big Ten in conference play at 4.3 sacks per game, and is third in 3rd down defense. PENN STATE 31, MICHIGAN STATE 17
Great write up, only a few comments off the top of my head.Yeah, I don’t see Penn State scoring 31 on any defense with a pulse.
1. I don't anticipate Penn State scoring 31 points against a very good defense.
2. Remember that 10 of Penn State's sacks came in a single game against Purdue, who was starting a freshman QB. Penn State has struggled to get pressure with just 4 guys all year.
3. Penn State may be a good B1G Ten offense this year, but that's because the B1G has some pretty terrible offenses. I would certainly rank PSU behind the 3 teams you mentioned above, and maybe lower.
4. Apparently rain is becoming a possibility. If that happens, it does neutralize any speed advantage Penn State might have.