CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 18, 2019, 05:37:00 PM
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Link to last week's results (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-7-11710/).
Votes through @medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) , 15 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/toFh1Qn.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/pEDLDFc.png)
Graph of rankings and change so far this year:
(https://i.imgur.com/kijeYGR.jpg)
Change so far this year (aka COTY prediction graph):
(https://i.imgur.com/fWt4sfN.jpg)
Vote distribution:
(https://i.imgur.com/h5cue8J.jpg)
Schedule/performance table:
(https://i.imgur.com/qNS1JPr.png)
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Best to put this here!
My apologies to OSU you obviously are still the top dog and were not the team looking at next week
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I'd prefer to give Illinois credit. They played fantastic up front, on both sides.
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prefer what you will
Illinois isn't good
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- OHIO STATE (1) - although I didn't watch
- PENN STATE (3) - concerned a little bit going forward about Clifford's happy feet once rattled
- WISCONSIN (2) - well then
- MICHIGAN (4) - not going to drop you for being a dropped ball away from OT in a night White Out
- MINNESOTA (6) - they seem to be legitimately improving week to week
- IOWA (5) - sort of a sleep walk
- MICHIGAN STATE (7) - bye week
- INDIANA (8) - Tom Allen job saving bowl bid seems within reach
- ILLINOIS (13) - the last 6 quarters they have looked like a Top 25 team
- PURDUE (9) - why not?
- NORTHWESTERN (10) - if it didn't happen on Saturday, does it count?
- NEBRASKA (11) - bye week
- MARYLAND (12) - from national darling to being thankful Rutgers was their Rush Week partner in a month
- RUTGERS (14)
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Minnesota
6. Iowa
7. Michigan State
8. Indiana
9. Nebraska
10. Purdue
11. Illinois
12. Northwestern
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers
I shuffled the deck.
Ohio State was dominant, again, so up they go. Ohio State finishes the year with consecutive weeks against Penn State and Michigan. As good as Ohio State is, even Ohio State could stumble. Not to mention that that the Buckeyes get the pissed-off Badgers next Saturday.
Penn State defeated a resurgent Michigan team which I'd like to see pepper Notre Dame next week. Penn State just had two consecutive weeks of competitive games, so I don't think they are quite at the level of Ohio State.
I had to move Minnesota up because Iowa had so little ground offense until the very end of the game, today. And this has been the case three consecutive weeks. Minnesota has one more patsy next week in Maryland, a team I don't understand. After next week the meat of the Gopher's schedule starts; so they need to enjoy this elevation while they can.
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I think I have no choice but to treat the ILL-Wisc game as a fluke. Otherwise I will go insane.
1. OSU
I was ready to rank OSU #1 even before Wiscy lost
2. Wisc
Wiscy still has dominant blowout wins over Mich and MSU
3. PSU
Close wins over Iowa and Mich does not make me think that PSU is in another tier. Although PSU looked really good against Mich in the 1Q.
4. Mich
Just a little better than Iowa, little worse than PSU.
5. Iowa
Defense is great. Offense just can't finish drives.
6. Minn
Just not convinced.
7. MSU
May just be an average team.
8. Indy
Could they be good?
9. Pur
Looking decent last 2 weeks.
10. ILL
Ok, I will give them a little bump for their big win.
11. Neb
12. NW
13. MD
14. Rut
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1. Ohio State: Yet to be more than slightly bothered in a game, so a pretty clear top team. The number of ways they can score on offense is probably intimidating to defensive coordinators. Still, their tackles were banged up and they looked shaky at times pass blocking, and Fields isn't the swiftest passer in the pocket. Defensively, they are good. But they did look a bit wobbly stopping the run against Northwestern, and here comes Wisconsin.
2. Wisconsin: A crazy result, considering how bad Illinois had been on defense this year. Michigan ran for nearly twice what Wisconsin put up. Still, Wiscy controlled the game, should have won, but somehow had two turnovers in their last two possessions to give away the game. Such is football. Here comes OSU.
3. Penn State: Had a good game plan and beat a good team. Watching the game and watching the stats seemed like two different experiences. I watched PSU break some big plays and come oh so close to a couple more. Also, they were outgained by Michigan by 140 yards. It feels like they've been outgained in most of their games. At some point, that will bite them. But not this night.
4. Michigan: Encouraged to see some fight in them. Nearly everyone was thinking they were ready to pack up and go home down 21, but they showed a sense of urgency and spirit that has been lacking in their big games. Their offense was acceptable, the defense stiffened, and they nearly caught a big one. But man, the schedule is just gonna get tougher.
5. Minnesota: Say hello to your first place Minnesota Golden Gophers.
6. Iowa: Quietly plugging along. They have no margin for error but are capable of beating Wiscy and Minny, which would plug them right back into the mix.
7. Michigan State: They got a bye to watch Penn State and remember to not try and cover Hamler with a safety or a linebacker.
8. Indiana: A close game with Maryland despite outgaining them by 150 yards. Also hurt their Penix again. Indiana is quietly good and has a couple games coming up where they can secure their bowl bid.
9. Purdue: This group is tough to rank except for Rutgers, but Purdue is still fighting and can beat you if you aren't on your game.
10. Nebraska: At some point this has to come together, right?
11. Illinois: How about that? The defense showed some life.
12. Northwestern: Still have a bit of life in them.
13. Maryland: Spirited effort.
14. Rutgers
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1 Ohio St - winning by wide margins
2 Penn St - Looks like Franklin has built up a "program" that can withstand personel loss
3 Wisconsin - caught looking ahead
4 Michigan - they are a tough out
5 Minnesota - great start, but will have to start rowing upstream after the Maryland game
6 Iowa - keeps losses against good teams close
7 Michigan St - doesn't keep losses against good teams close
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8 Indiana - clawed their way to the top of the scrap heap
9 Nebraska - can they beat an FBS team that isn't from Illinois?
10 Illinois - cracking the top 10 after Lovie and his Santa beard knock off the Badgers
11 Purdue - at least Brohm didn't go back to the 'Ville
12 Northwestern - the schedule lightens up quite a bit after Iowa
13 Maryland - has a lot of speed
14 Rutgers - they beat the Wolverines a few years back
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I'm pretty settled into these, and didn't see a lot to change my mind this week.
1) Ohio State (1)
2) Wisconsin (2)
3) Penn State (3)
4) Michigan (4)
5) Michigan State (5)
6) Minnesota (7)
7) Iowa (6) - I've finally seen enough to start moving them down. I don't think their G play is going to improve.
8) Indiana (8)
9) Purdue (9)
10) Nebraska (10)
11) Maryland (11)
12) Illinois (13) - I'll throw 'em a one week bump for the big upset.
13) Northwestern (12) - The vindictive side of me wants to drop them to last since I bet the under and their defense failed me in an epic manor.
14) Rutgers (14)
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Question - Has the spread between the top and bottoms of each conference widened this year, do you think, relative to the past 5 years or so?
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1. Ohio State - by a wide margin
2. Wisconsin - WTF was that?
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota
7. Michigan State
8. Indiana
9. Purdue
10. Nebraska
11. Illinois - WTF was that?
12. Northwestern
13. Maryland
14.
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It just occured to me how perfectly the point spread works out between PSU, Mich and Iowa.
First start with the assumption that home field is worth 3 points.
Mich beat Iowa by 7 in Ann Arbor. Mich is 4 points better than Iowa on neutral field.
PSU beat Iowa by 5 in Iowa city. PSU is 8 points better than Iowa.
PSU beat Mich by 7 in Happy Valley. PSU is 4 points better than Mich.
The math checks out! ( Just don't ask me about the ILL-Wisc game )
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Minnesota
6. Iowa
7. Michigan State
8. Indiana
9. Purdue
10. Nebraska
11. Illinois
12. Northwestern
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers
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Not to stir the pot- but how many of us would pick Penn State to beat Michigan on a neutral field if they played this weekend?
I would give you Penn State and 7.
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1. Ohio State - Not even really debatable now.
2. Penn State - I still think they might be overrated, but they have good wins now.
3. Minnesota - I guess? We'll find out in November.
4. Michigan - Still too many dumb mistakes.
5. Wisconsin - Just inexplicable all around.
6. Iowa - They actually have a shot at winning the West
7. Michigan State - Still don't think they can beat a top 25 team.
8. Indiana - We'll see how good they really are in the next few weeks.
9. Purdue - Record aside, they are playing better of late.
10. Nebraska - Still better than the rest.
11. Illinois - Big upset, but they still lost to Eastern Michigan and Nebraska.
12. Maryland - At least they were competitive this week.
13. Northwestern - I can't give them the benefit of the doubt anymore.
14. Rutgers - As always
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1) Ohio State
2) Penn State
3) Wisconsin
4) Michigan
5) Michigan State
6) Iowa
7) Minnesota
8) Indiana
9) Nebraska
10) Maryland
11) Purdue
12) Illinois
13) Northwestern
14) Rutgers
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Not to stir the pot- but how many of us would pick Penn State to beat Michigan on a neutral field if they played this weekend?
I would give you Penn State and 7.
I'd pick PSU over meatchicken again. I saw it as a Dominant 1st half and survived a cruise control 2nd half.
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1. OSU
2. PSU
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3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. MSU
6. Iowa
7. Minnesota
8. Nebraska
9. Indiana
10. Maryland
11. Purdue
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12. Illinois
13. Northwestern
14. Rutger
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Minnesota
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Michigan State
8. Indiana
9. Nebraska
10. Purdue
11. Northwestern
12. Illinois
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers
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1. Ohio State - Still looking like the best team in the Conf. However, the competition takes a major step up this week.
2. Penn State - 2 best wins in the Conf this year so far.
3. Wisconsin - Still may be better than Penn State, but didn't show it Sat. But keeping them in the upper tier.
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4. Michigan - Found some offense in the 2nd half. Had the receiver held on the 4th down pass, they would have had a chance to win in OT.
5. Minnesota - I have to put them here for now. But we will find out if they are for real starting in a couple of weeks.
6. Iowa - 2 close losses to teams that are slightly better. But if they don't find an offense, they could be looking at more close losses.
7. Michigan State - Bye week.
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8. Indiana - Good win for them.
9. Nebraska - Bye week
10. Purdue - Gave Iowa a good game minus their best player.
11. Illinois - Biggest win for the program in years. Let's see if they can use this going forward.
12. Northwestern - I have a feeling they will be moving up in the next few weeks. Their schedule to this point has been brutal.
13. Maryland - Not good.
14. Rutgers - Maybe football just isn't their thing.
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SP+
1. OSU (1)
2. Wisconsin (7)
3. PSU (8)
4. Michigan (14)
5. Minnesota (15)
6. Indiana (22)
7. Iowa (24)
8. MSU (28)
9. Nebraska (46)
10. Maryland (47)
11. Purdue (50)
12. Illinois (70)
13. Northwestern (74)
14. Rutgers (107)
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6. Indiana (22)
9. Nebraska (46)
Frosty's Huskers are DOOMED in Lincoln this Saturday
I'm going to the game anyway!
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Using the schedule/performance chart that I post each week, here are the teams' rankings based on how they did against the teams they played. Ie, MSU, IU, NU, and UNL have played Ohio State. MSU did the best, losing by 24. IU and UNL were tied for 2nd/3rd losing by 41, and NU was 4th, losing by 49:
- vs tOSU: 1 MSU, 2/3 MSU, 2/3 UNL, 4 NU
- vs UW: 1 ILL, 2 NU, 3 M, 4 MSU
- vs PSU: 1 IA, 2 M, 3 PU, 4 UMD
- vs M: 1 UW, 2 PSU, 3 IA, 4 ILL, 5 RU
- vs MN: 1 PU, 2 ILL, 3 UNL, 4 RU
- vs IA: 1 M, 2 PSU, 3 PU, 4 RU
- vs MSU: 1 UW, 2 tOSU, 3 IU, 4 NU
- vs IU: 1 tOSU, 2 MSU, 3 UMD, 4 RU
- vs NU: 1 tOSU, 2 MSU, 3 UW, 4 UNL
- vs UNL: 1 tOSU, 2 MN, 3 NU, 4 ILL
- vs PU: 1 PSU, 2 MN, 3 IA, 4 UMD
- vs UMD: 1 PSU, 2 PU, 3 IU, 4 RU
- vs ILL: 1 MN, 2 M, 3 UNL, 4 UW
- vs RU: 1 M, 2 UMD, 3/4 MN, 3/4 IU, 5 IA
The more I look at this the more I think that maybe that Michigan/Wisconsin result is just one of those weird and inexplicable things that randomly happen in this sport that can't really be explained or projected.
Looking at Michigan:
- They are the best so far against Rutgers, beating them by 52. Maryland was second with a 41 point win.
- They are the best so far against Iowa, beating them by 7. PSU was second with a five point win. Granted Michigan did it at home and PSU did it on the road so the difference could be attributed solely to HFA.
- They are second best against Penn State, losing by 7. IA was second best, losing by 5 but again HFA could more than explain that because M did it in Happy Valley while IA did it in Iowa City.
- They are second best against Illinois, beating them by 17. MN was best, beating them by 23. Even here though, HFA arguably explains the difference. Michigan beat Illinois by 17 in Champaign which, theoretically, is 20 on a neutral field while MN beat them by 23 in Minneapolis which, theoretically, is 20 on a neutral field.
- They were the second worst against Wisconsin, losing by 21. MSU was worst, losing by 38.
So Michigan has five B1G opponents. Against four of them (RU, IA, PSU, and ILL) they appear to be one of the best teams in the league. Against the other one (UW), they appear to be one of the worst teams in the league.
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Kinda weird to say that NU and UI are the two defenses to bottle up the UW offense this season, when UM and MSU are the other two opponents.
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this season is getting weirder as we go
wait til PJ Barnum rows his boat to Indianapolis
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Lol, it never occurred to me that the Mich-Wiscy result could be considered a fluke. That was such a dominant performance by Wisconsin, leading I think 38-0 in the 3Q.
Time will tell, I guess. Right now I am confident that Wisconsin is much better than Michigan. Which is why the ILL-Wisc game makes my head spin.
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1) Ohio State: until someone proves differently. And that's not looking real likely.
2) Penn State: solid win; keeps winning.
3) Wisconsin: damn, it does not feel good to be a Badger.
4) Michigan: beating good teams on the road is hard. Still deserve to be here.
5) Iowa: not inspiring, but no one below deserves higher.
6) Minnesota: three solid wins in a row (even if Rutgers is awful); still unbeaten, and still untested.
7) Michigan State: Unfair to move down during an idle week? Deal with it.
8) Nebraska: Idle
9) Illinois: BIG upset, and losses to only teams above them. Still not good.
10) Northwestern: Ouch. But that's playing Ohio State for you.
11) Indiana: wins are good. Close wins against Maryland aren't inspiring.
12) Purdue: close doesn't count.
13) Maryland: still better than Rutgers.
14) Rutgers: still gross.
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Lol, it never occurred to me that the Mich-Wiscy result could be considered a fluke. That was such a dominant performance by Wisconsin, leading I think 38-0 in the 3Q.
Time will tell, I guess. Right now I am confident that Wisconsin is much better than Michigan. Which is why the ILL-Wisc game makes my head spin.
I think so too. Yeah, that was a bad [and head-scratching] loss to Illinois.
But every team has those from time to time, like Ohio State getting absolutely clobbered by Purdue last year. OSU was still the best team in the conference by far last year IMHO, and Purdue was nowhere close. But, one team gets hot, gets some turnovers and/or big plays, and boom, you have 49-20. In that game last year it was largely that Ohio State kept getting into the red zone and coming up empty. They moved the ball without a problem between the 20s, but stalled out when it came to putting points on the scoreboard.
Wisconsin had more 1st downs than Illinois, and had a MUCH better 3rd down conversion rate. Had over 100 more total yards. Dominated time of possession, holding the ball for over 40 minutes. Wisconsin had a 75% completion rate (24 of 32), while Illinois was 9-21 (43%) passing the ball. That's... not great.
But Wisconsin was also -2 in the turnover margin, and had too many drives end in FG (or missed FG in one case). They had 60 penalty yards to only 15 for Illinois.
Let a team that "shouldn't have a chance" hang around into the 4th quarter, and crazy things happen. This was just one of those weeks.
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Lol, it never occurred to me that the Mich-Wiscy result could be considered a fluke. That was such a dominant performance by Wisconsin, leading I think 38-0 in the 3Q.
Time will tell, I guess. Right now I am confident that Wisconsin is much better than Michigan. Which is why the ILL-Wisc game makes my head spin.
It felt that way to me as well, but I'm trying to look at both in context to figure that out.
Even if Wisconsin is comfortably better than Michigan, are they really THAT much better? I don't think so. Watching that M/UW game, the Badgers looked light years ahead. As you pointed out, it was worse even than the final score indicated. However, that just doesn't fit with Michigan's other performances. Otherwise they appear to be pretty good.
Wisconsin is just a Jeckyll and Hyde right now. In four B1G games they were great in two and not good at all in two:
- Against Michigan the Badgers won by 21 in a game that wasn't even that close. That is way better than PSU (beat them by only 7), Iowa (lost to them by 7) and Illinois (lost to them by 17).
- Against Michigan State the Badgers won by 38. That is considerably better than tOSU (beat them by 24), better than Indiana (lost to them by 9), and better than Northwestern (lost to them by 21).
- Against Northwestern the Badgers won by 9. That isn't even close to as good as tOSU (beat them by 49). It is also not as good as MSU (beat them by 21) and only slightly better than Nebraska (beat them by 3).
- Against Illinois the Badgers lost by 1. That is the worst of any B1G team against the Illini. Minnesota (by 23), Michigan (by 17), and Nebraska (by 4) all beat them.
In the two games against schools from Michigan the Badgers have looked like EASILY the best team in the conference. Their wins over M and MSU were MUCH stronger than PSU's and tOSU's wins over the Wolverines and Spartans. In their other two games the Badgers look decidedly pedestrian.
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(L)ike Ohio State getting absolutely clobbered by Purdue last year. OSU was still the best team in the conference by far last year IMHO, and Purdue was nowhere close. But, one team gets hot, gets some turnovers and/or big plays, and boom, you have 49-20. In that game last year it was largely that Ohio State kept getting into the red zone and coming up empty. They moved the ball without a problem between the 20s, but stalled out when it came to putting points on the scoreboard.
That game was a year ago yesterday. I was at an Eagles Concert in Cleveland so I missed it. I got out of the concert and checked my phone. It showed the score (ugh!) and a stat. The stat showing was that Dwayne Haskins was 49/73 (67%, not bad) for 470 yards (one of the highest yardage totals in tOSU history) with 2 TD's and one INT (2:1 TD:INT isn't terrible). I sent my brother a text that asked: "How the hell do you throw for 500 yards and only score 20 points?" The bold/underlined portion of your post is the answer.
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That game was a year ago yesterday. I was at an Eagles Concert in Cleveland so I missed it. I got out of the concert and checked my phone. It showed the score (ugh!) and a stat. The stat showing was that Dwayne Haskins was 49/73 (67%, not bad) for 470 yards (one of the highest yardage totals in tOSU history) with 2 TD's and one INT (2:1 TD:INT isn't terrible). I sent my brother a text that asked: "How the hell do you throw for 500 yards and only score 20 points?" The bold/underlined portion of your post is the answer.
Exactly, and it's a big reason the Badgers lost. If you look at their stats, they average 74% touchdowns in the red zone through the year. They got 40% (2 of 5) on Saturday. The only other game that they were poor at converting TDs in the red zone was, surprise surprise, Northwestern, where they converted 1 of 2 (50%) red zone trips for a TD.
If you want to put away an inferior team, you need 7 in the red zone, not 3.
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- Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 - No debate at least until Saturday at noon.
- Penn State - 3,3,3,3,3,3,3,4 - Weird game.
- Wisconsin - 2,2,2,2,2,2,4,3 - WTF was that? It happens, happened to Ohio State last year (Purdue) and the year before (Iowa).
- Michigan - 4,4,5,5,4,4,2,2 - 0-2 against teams above this, 3-0 against teams below this.
- Iowa - 5,5,4,4,5,6,5,6 - Close but they got the W.
- Minnesota - 6,9,10,10,10,8,13,10 - Undefeated but I still don't completely trust that.
- Michigan State - 7,6,6,6,7,7,7,9 - Two blowout losses to the B1G's best teams.
- Northwestern - 8,7,7,9,9,10,9,7 - Ouch.
- Purdue - 9,12,12,12,12,11,10,5 - They do seem improved but is it going to be enough to go bowling?
- Indiana - 10,11,11,11,11,13,12,12 - Close but they got the W.
- Nebraska - 11,8,9,8,6,9,6,8 - off.
- Maryland - 12,10,8,7,8,5,8,11 - What happened to this season? Haven't I asked that about this team in previous seasons as well?
- Illinois - 13,13,13,13,13,12,11,13 - For 20 minutes they completely dominated and outscored Michigan 25-0. Then they went and pulled the biggest upset of the year so far. So are they the team that dominated Michigan for ~20 minutes and beat Wisconsin or are they Illinois?
- Rutgers - 14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14 - Still Rutgers.
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Results posted, votes through @medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) , 15 voters.
It seems oddly unfair that we dropped Northwestern three spots for getting blown out by the team that is now unanimously #1.
Other than that, not too much change:
- UW and PSU traded #2 and #3.
- Nebraska was up 1.5 spots on an off week mostly due to Northwestern sinking.
- Purdue was up 0.5 spots.
- Illinois was up two spots for their upset of Wisconsin.
- Maryland was down a spot.
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Award me a boobie prize since my rankings were exactly in-line with the group, which must be my first time in hx, as I might be considered an historical outlier.
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I know I'm late, but I have 2 minutes...
1. Ohio State - No doubt about it now
2. Wisconsin - I don't know what to say about that Illinois game, but they have been so dominant..
3. Penn State - The home atmosphere and the refs helped PSU tremendously. Not sure they would beat UM on a neutral field. Michigan State has their number, if they can win they will move up.
4. Michigan - Their season is not lost. If they win out I think they end up in the Rose Bowl. I think they will beat ND.
5. Minnesota - Undefeated, but I'm still not sure if they belong with the teams at the top of the B1G.
6. Michigan State - Just like Michigan, they have had a brutal schedule, but they are a good team.
7. Iowa -
8. Indiana - This team is good enough to win their next 2 games. They could be 7-2 when they visit Penn State in 4 weeks. With the rise of Minnesota and Indiana, Penn State's upcoming schedule looks MUCH more difficult than it did earlier in the season.
9. Nebraska -
10. Purdue -
11. Illinois - Can't justify putting them higher than this, but if they play the rest of the season like they did against Michigan and Wisconsin they will keep moving up.
12. Northwestern -
13. Maryland - This is the worst coached team in the B1G. They have REALLY good players on both sides of the ball, and yet the coaching is so bad...
14. Rutgers - I'm actually feeling pity for them right now.
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FWIW:
I did enter @Big Beef Tacosupreme (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1529) 's vote and his input will be included in the totals going forward but I did not redo the compilation because there was no major change.
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3. Penn State - The home atmosphere and the refs helped PSU tremendously. Not sure they would beat UM on a neutral field
Yeah, PSU got some bad calls going their way, but so did Michigan. On the drive setting up their 3rd TD, there was an end run that set up 1st and goal (I think) that had a blatant hold that sprung the runner that didn’t get flagged at all.