CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big XII => Topic started by: utee94 on October 07, 2019, 07:51:39 AM
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aka TX-OU or occasionally the Red River Shootout.
Here we are, another year. Horns are slowly improving from the absolute crap of the Charlie Strong era, while OU appears to replace its coaches as easily as it replaces its Heisman-winning QBs. Last year Texas won at the Cotton Bowl, OU won at Jerryworld, so I guess the "revenge" factor is in favor of the Longhorns, not that it really makes much difference.
I really don't see Texas winning this game. The secondary is just too thin, too many starters out, but even if we had every single starter for this game, the Texas defense is consistently ranked in the 100s for pass defense and that's not any different this year. They give up too many big plays and OU is a team specifically designed to take advantage of those mistakes.
I think the Texas offense is going to move the ball and score points. Tom Herman won't "turtle" for this game so I expect him to throw a lot of wild stuff out there. I'm hopeful Collin Johnson is back and reasonable healthy because Duvernay can't continue to do it all by himself. Our running back situation is pretty dire as well, but RoJo has been serviceable so far this year, hopefully he can keep that up.
Realistically, I think Texas probably needs to score on every offensive possession to win, and I don't see that happening. But here's hoping!
OK. Cool. Hook 'em!
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I really don't see Texas winning this game. The secondary is just too thin, too many starters out, but even if we had every single starter for this game, the Texas defense is consistently ranked in the 100s for pass defense and that's not any different this year.
I'm probably one notch (or two) above you on the optimism scale. Didn't we have 4 picks last Saturday? And our pass defense numbers will improve as we get further away from that LSU game.
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I'm probably one notch (or two) above you on the optimism scale. Didn't we have 4 picks last Saturday? And our pass defense numbers will improve as we get further away from that LSU game.
I think OU's offense is much, much better than LSU's. That's the real issue here.
But for sure those INTs were nice. D-line actually got a LITTLE bit of penetration to pressure the QB and the DBs actually played the ball well, for a change, so hopefully that continues.
And I do think Texas is considerably more battle tested than OU at this point, which will help. I just don't think it'll help enough. I definitely hope I'm wrong though!
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The eye test says Texas is a bit behind OU overall. However, the eye test is minus one factor.
OU hasn't been hit yet. They've played nothing but tomato cans. All they've seen is good things happen. Their OL is still a bunch of new guys. What happens when they get into a dogfight? Texas has been in dogfights with teams at least as good as the Sooners.
I'll wait and listen to today's injury report. Texas has a couple of starting DBs out, but frankly, their replacements are adequate for the Sooners (meaning, it wouldn't make much difference against that offense who was playing DB).
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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20191006/80ba8d6f55c5c99d1e03d3f3d2bc9b08.jpg)
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were doooooooomed
can we just send our band for the half time show
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Is this game considered to be something of a rivalry in that part of the country? Like say Clemson-South Carolina?
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Is this game considered to be something of a rivalry in that part of the country?
Who is this guy?
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Just asking a simple question. Maybe it's more akin to Virginia vs North Carolina, an interstate kind of a thing.
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So anyway, combined records of opponents:
OU 10-17
TX 16-11
But here is my concern - OU laid a whipping on TxTech, who just beat oSu, who Texas struggled with. Not saying we have no chance, but just sayin'...
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So anyway, combined records of opponents:
OU 10-17
TX 16-11
But here is my concern - OU laid a whipping on TxTech, who just beat oSu, who Texas struggled with. Not saying we have no chance, but just sayin'...
In this game anything can happen
records and ranking dont mean a thing
I think youll see a close game with neither team reaching 30 points
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My guess would be something like 45-31, OU winning, but I'm wrong very often of course, so LH fans can see this as a positive.
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Opening spread favors OU as a 10.5 point favorite. This is an interesting tidbit though:
https://twitter.com/KeganReneau/status/1180936554992275456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1180936554992275456&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FKeganReneau%2Fstatus%2F1180936554992275456%3Fs%3D19 (https://twitter.com/KeganReneau/status/1180936554992275456?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1180936554992275456&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FKeganReneau%2Fstatus%2F1180936554992275456%3Fs%3D19)
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so, Sooners by 7?
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My gut feeling is that it won't be as close as that, maybe more like the 45-31 that CD guessed at. But, the recent trend in the spread might indicate otherwise...
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My gut and my heart are at odds.
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were doooooooomed
can we just send our band for the half time show
Heh!
I was waiting for it.
Didn't know I'd have to wait until the 5th reply, though!
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Maybe Cousin Fred will swing by to taunt us. I'd like that.
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(https://imagesvc.timeincapp.com/v3/mm/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn-s3.si.com%2Fs3fs-public%2Fsi%2Fmultimedia%2Fphoto_gallery%2F0812%2Foklahoma.covers%2Fimages%2F890227.jpg&w=800&q=85)
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Charles' son Casey still playing for Texas?
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Apparently, in the spirit of sportsmanship, OU will counter Texas' injured secondary by having both their starting Tackles injured. Not to be outdone, they've also suspended their starting Kicker indefinitely.
Now, this being OU, and possessing a roster of 44 Texas high school players, I'm sure this is simply an opportunity to replace All-American players with Ultra-All-American players. However, the gesture is noted.
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Apparently, in the spirit of sportsmanship, OU will counter Texas' injured secondary by having both their starting Tackles injured.
Offensive I presume?
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Offensive I presume?
Well, I was personally offended. Can't speak for the rest of the :snowflakes
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Yes, offensive tackles you yuck-yucks.
And Riley said they were both "highly unlikely" or something like that. So, if you want to believe a Sooner is telling the truth, then...
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Well, I was personally offended.
Nice one. Forward to Leslie Nielson.
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I'm the most out-of-the-loop on both teams as I have ever been, it's been a weird beginning of the season for me and I haven't taken the time to really catch up on off-field information and have only been able to watch two longhorn games in their entirety so far.
However, the hate is strong and I'm ready to devote the full 3+ hours it takes to watch every second of Saturday's game, from a hotel room or sports bar or SOMEWHERE since it's my last trip of the year. Hopefully i don't miss any more games, as my schedule is much more favorable to game-day Saturdays moving forward, but I've been fan-slacking lately.
What I do know is OU sucks.
Always has... always will.
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Yes, offensive tackles you yuck-yucks.
Really? We are gonna put the hurt on Mr. Hurts.
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(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/tulsaworld.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/ff/6ff2f72e-56e6-5ca8-8e22-0bdf4d93813e/5d9c093ada3a2.image.jpg?resize=1200%2C780)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOamsw24IvE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOamsw24IvE)
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Lulz.
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0U has outscored its opponents by 172 points thus far.
Texas has outscored opponents by 76.
We are dead meat.
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DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMEEEEEEEDDDDDDDDD DDDDDDDDDDDDD
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What is the line on this one? OU by 8 or so?
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What is the line on this one? OU by 8 or so?
11 last I looked
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No underdog ever wins with that spread.
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No underdog ever wins with that spread.
Wow, you really don't know Texas/OU.
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No underdog ever wins with that spread.
youre right there is no way the Horns can win
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No underdog ever wins with that spread.
If by "never" you mean 4 and 6 years ago then sure. And the Horns did 11 points better than the spread just last year.
2018: Texas was an 8 point underdog, won the game 48--45 (11 points better than the spread)
2017: Texas was a 9 point underdog, lost the game 29-24 (4 points better than the spread)
2016: Texas was 13.5 point underdog, lost the game 45-40 (8.5 points better than the spread)
2015: Texas was a 16.5 point underdog, won the game 24-17 (23.5 points better than the spread)
2014: Texas was a 16.5 point underdog, lost the game 31-26 (11.5 points better than the spread)
2013: Texas was 13.5 point underdog, won the game 36-20 (29.5 points better than the spread)
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Hey utee dont let facts ruin the picture
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I mean I'm no good at math, but over the last 6 RRS at the Cotton Bowl, Texas is averaging beating the spread by 14.67 points.
But for sure the Horns have no chance to win as an 11-point dog this year. No way no how.
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Fairly certain that if Texas had scheduled Northwest Louisiana instead of LSU, we'd be ranked #7 right now and the spread would be OU -5.
I'm glad that did not happen. Texas knows what they have and how to play. OU still doesn't know (not their fault - UCLA shouldn't be a laugher).
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Hey utee dont let facts ruin the picture
At least somebody here got my "point". I guess it was too obscure. I can be obtuse at times as well.
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Fairly certain that if Texas had scheduled Northwest Louisiana instead of LSU, we'd be ranked #7 right now and the spread would be OU -5.
I'm glad that did not happen. Texas knows what they have and how to play. OU still doesn't know (not their fault - UCLA shouldn't be a laugher).
No doubt, not only did Texas get a great early test, but that weekend-- from the pre-parties to the tailgate parties to the gameday atmosphere on campus and within the stadium, plus the game itself-- was an incredible amount of fun. A win would have been better, but we got to see a heck of a game and that's really the whole point.
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At least somebody here got my "point". I guess it was too obscure. I can be obtuse at times as well.
Guess I missed it. Sorry.
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Anyone going to Dallas this year for it? Just curious, I might be going next year if things align the way I want them to.
I just love how this game brings out the fan-frenzy from people of all ages, like this story:
"Herman told reporters his first memory depicting the sheer intensity of UT versus OU was as a grad assistant. He said he remembered looking out the window of the Texas bus to see an 80-year-old woman and an 8-year-old boy both giving him the double bird.
Yes, you read that right. Herman was flipped off by an 80-year-old lady and a child." :86:
https://www.kvue.com/article/sports/ncaa/longhorns/red-river-showdown-history-behind-the-texas-oklahoma-rivalry/269-2ae1103e-2409-44c4-96fa-a3df41f24da7 (https://www.kvue.com/article/sports/ncaa/longhorns/red-river-showdown-history-behind-the-texas-oklahoma-rivalry/269-2ae1103e-2409-44c4-96fa-a3df41f24da7)
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Won't be there this year, the schedule just didn't allow it. We're definitely going next year though, since our oldest will still be in middle school and missing a day is still not that big of a deal.
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Yes, you read that right. Herman was flipped off by an 80-year-old lady and a child." :86:
I'm sure Herman had it coming
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At least somebody here got my "point". I guess it was too obscure. I can be obtuse at times as well.
Horns are humor-challenged this week.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DtGDODNV4AENmHU.jpg)
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Horns are humor-challenged this week.
This isn't true. We've been laughing at sooners since Sunday.
Sunday of 1894, that is!
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Horns are humor-challenged this week.
It's how they feel NEXT week that is important.
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Either the Sooners win and everyone talks about how Jalen Hurts and Alex Grinch will propel them into the CFP, and how this win proves it,...
or
Texas will win, and everyone will talk about how the Sooners will win in the Big 12 CFP, and how Jalen Hurts and Alex Grinch will propel them into the CFP.
(but I'd still prefer Texas win)
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Either the Sooners win and everyone talks about how Jalen Hurts and Alex Grinch will propel them into the CFP, and how this win proves it,...
or
Texas will win, and everyone will talk about how the Sooners will win in the Big 12 CFP, and how Jalen Hurts and Alex Grinch will propel them into the CFP.
(but I'd still prefer Texas win)
Yup. And your statement would still be true even if Texas has beaten LSU in week 2. Texas has a lot of years of mediocre-to-terrible football to overcome, in the public's eye.
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Texas has a lot of years of mediocre-to-terrible football to overcome, in the public's eye.
And in reality as well.
Kinda like USF has a lot of terrible football to overcome, even though they were going undefeated 3 years ago.
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Obviously, OU could lose and still make the CFP, not so for Texas (probably). A Texas win would help LSU's optics. This is the time of year where "we" start pulling for teams we already beat to do better. The Cincy win over UCF helps Ohio State, for example, if this comes down to the usual beauty pageant thing.
Of course, a P5 that is 13-0 is almost certainly a lock (Clemson), so that is a good approach as well.
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And in reality as well.
Kinda like USF has a lot of terrible football to overcome, even though they were going undefeated 3 years ago.
Yeah my comment about "in the public's eye" is specifically addressing the droog's comments about what people will be saying in the case of a Texas win, or a Texas loss. That's reflective of the "public's eye."
"In reality" is subjective depending on your fandom and point of view. For Texas fans, sure, there's recent history of terrible football that I want-- and expect-- the coaching staff to overcome. Rival programs probably don't want that to happen. And other folks don't really care.
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Does it help the OU program if somehow Texas tuned into Texas Tech in football? I don't think so, the fan base might be amused for a while.
If I could somehow turn say Florida into, well, Tennessee, would I? Of course I would. But after 20 years or so, I might wish they were a little better, say 4-8.
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I find it more fun to beat a rival when they're good.
But if the choice is beating a rival when they're bad, or LOSING, then I'm gonna go with the wins.
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Obviously, OU could lose and still make the CFP, not so for Texas (probably).
Oh noes. It just occurred to me that it is better for the Big 12 if Texas takes a dive.
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hopefully, the front office and the Big 12 refs aren't aware
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This isn't true. We've been laughing at sooners since Sunday.
Sunday of 1894, that is!
Heh!
Anyone can laugh at the hated rival, so congratulations on being like the rest of humanity.
But you can't see any humor about yourselves, like Cincy's facetious comment about no big underdog possibly winning the RRS.
Sort of like Germans in that regard, perhaps.
They've never been able to see anything funny about themselves.
And a bunch of 'em migrated to Texas in the 19th century, founding towns like New Braunfels and Fredericksburg.
Coincidence? I think not!
;)
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hopefully, the front office and the Big 12 Texas refs aren't aware
FIFY!
;)
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Texas refs get paid too
it's how they got to be rich and arrogant
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Lulz, anyone that thinks Texas gets special treatment from the refs isn't watching B12 football.
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Getting close to 24 hours before kickoff, temps should be in the 50s and sunny at 11 AM tomorrow. Going to be a heck of a game.
I'm usually already in Dallas by now so this is weird.
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I think I'm ready to do home-and-home.
This game would be so much fun in Austin. And likely would not be at 11am.
But never Jerry World.
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I think I'm ready to do home-and-home.
This game would be so much fun in Austin. And likely would not be at 11am.
But never Jerry World.
thats funny
when I first joined this forum I suggested a home and home and I was strongly attacked
as being crazy
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crazy talk
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Y'all don't go to the games anyway, why would you care whether it's in Austin or Dallas?
I never want it to leave the Cotton Bowl, it's the best game and best atmosphere in all of sports.
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Y'all don't go to the games anyway, why would you care whether it's in Austin or Dallas?
Excuse me?
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I never want it to leave the Cotton Bowl, it's the best game and best atmosphere in all of sports.
I'm not going to argue the point, because I used to share the same view. And it is still a great tradition. But the Cotton Bowl has been outgrown by DKR, and the pre-game festivities in Austin (thanks to CDC) are pretty nice.
And I've never been to Norman. I've even been to Stillwater, but not Norman.
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I want it to stay in the Cotton Bowl until that grand old relic crumbles to dust.
Maybe make it home-and-home then.
I heard a podcast yesterday that included OU and UT mediots. A point of discussion was what it would take in the way of improvements to the Cotton Bowl, short of demolishing it and starting over, to keep the RRS game there "forever."
It was a sobering discussion.
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I want it to stay in the Cotton Bowl until that grand old relic crumbles to dust.
I suspect in 2025 it's over. Realignment.
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Not gonna be any more realignment, at least not from any major schools. There's no point to making any further moves, nothing to gain, and a lot to lose.
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I want it to stay in the Cotton Bowl until that grand old relic crumbles to dust.
Maybe make it home-and-home then.
I heard a podcast yesterday that included OU and UT mediots. A point of discussion was what it would take in the way of improvements to the Cotton Bowl, short of demolishing it and starting over, to keep the RRS game there "forever."
It was a sobering discussion.
Amen, brutha.
The renovations they've made to the Cotton Bowl over the past 10-15 years have been great. Capacity is up around 92K. Upper deck endzone seating is easy to access, endzone concourses are wide open and fantastic. Major improvements to entrance and egress.
And this year they're going to have 20+ beer vendors inside the stadium, so you don't even have to duck out to the Fair to get your suds at halftime.
I won't say anything is going to last "forever" but the city of Dallas continues to do its share to keep the game planted in the Cotton Bowl. I don't see it leaving any time in the next decade and a half.
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Not gonna be any more realignment, at least not from any major schools. There's no point to making any further moves, nothing to gain, and a lot to lose.
What is that they say, "archived"?
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What is that they say, "archived"?
I'm confident in my prediction. Archive away. All of the reasons for Texas and OU to stay will still exist in 2025, and few of the reasons to leave in 2010 or 2011 will exist. The B12 is financially in better shape than the ACC and the PAC, and the revenue gap to the SEC and B1G won't get any worse than it currently is and will begin moving the other direction, as the cable subscriber model dies off.
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Don't get me wrong, I still love the idea of being in the same conference and division as OU, A&M, and Arkansas. And a move by Texas and OU to the SEC West is realistically the only way that would happen. But at this point, there's just no impetus to make a move anymore.
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I never want it to leave the Cotton Bowl, it's the best game and best atmosphere in all of sports.
Put down the Tito's and get out of the Sun you're not making any sense
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Put down the Tito's and get out of the Sun you're not making any sense
Utee was right. It is the best game and venue in CFB.
Oh, yeah. One more thing.
BOOMER!
;)
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Don't get me wrong, I still love the idea of being in the same conference and division as OU, A&M, and Arkansas. And a move by Texas and OU to the SEC West is realistically the only way that would happen. But at this point, there's just no impetus to make a move anymore.
Don’t misunderstand me. I really like being in the SEC. But I could see a few schools leaving their current conference and making a new one before I see OU and Texas joining the sec West.
Can you say SWC reincarnated? What would that look like?
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Here's the solution, which must not have occurred to the Horn and Aggie leadership: Texas and Texas A&M should play an annual OOC game, as the Sooners and Horns did for almost 70 years.
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Here's the solution, which must not have occurred to the Horn and Aggie leadership: Texas and Texas A&M should play an annual OOC game, as the Sooners and Horns did for almost 70 years.
Hey I got an idea
why not play them on Thanksgiving
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One good idea deserves another.
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Congrats to the Sooners on what I think is a really good win. OU out-coached and outplayed Texas in all aspects. It was a convincing win even if the score ended up only a TD apart.
I was actually surprised and impressed with the Texas defense, they gave up a lot of yards but that was mostly by design. They forced a couple of turnovers to get stops, and got a few more stops that took some grit to achieve. I was expecting OU to score into the 40s and the Texas defense held up better than I had hoped.
The Texas offense, on the other hand, looked lost for most of the game and performed well below expectations. I'll ceetainly credit the Sooner defense with causing those problems. Texas just had no answer for the multiple fronts and stunts that OU was delivering. And the o-line got absolutely abused by the defensive front that they had dismissed earlier this week as "nothing special."
Guess what, Texas-- 9 sacks and pathetic pass protection combined with mostly pathetic rush blocking proves that YOU are nothing special.
Now how about you shut your freaking mouths, stop talking when you've proven nothing, and get your effing shinebox. You got schooled today and it is woefully embarrassing to you, to the rest of your team, and every Longhorn alumnus and fan. Just shut up and get to work. You have a long long long way to go.
End transmission.
/rant
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Don’t misunderstand me. I really like being in the SEC. But I could see a few schools leaving their current conference and making a new one before I see OU and Texas joining the sec West.
Texas, OU, and Arkansas all have new AD's. A&M would be good to come back to the gang but it will never happen.
However, it sure seems to make more sense for Arkansas to join up with Texas/OU. And I bet Nebbie would look favorable if the TV payola can at least match Big 10. Nebbie is never going to find their place in Big 10. I'm talking 5 years from now, mind you.
A little more time for the prejudices of yesterday to further dissipate.
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Here's the solution, which must not have occurred to the Horn and Aggie leadership: Texas and Texas A&M should play an annual OOC game, as the Sooners and Horns did for almost 70 years.
Aggies have a burr in their saddle, and its called Longhorn Network.
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Texas, OU, and Arkansas all have new AD's. A&M would be good to come back to the gang but it will never happen.
However, it sure seems to make more sense for Arkansas to join up with Texas/OU. And I bet Nebbie would look favorable if the TV payola can at least match Big 10. Nebbie is never going to find their place in Big 10. I'm talking 5 years from now, mind you.
A little more time for the prejudices of yesterday to further dissipate.
OU doesn't have a new AD. We've still got Joe Castiglione, the guy who hired Bob Stoops.
Nebraska is happy in the B1G, and it's not because of football or football money. It's because of the academic cachet and the research money to which they now have access. I don't think they will ever be back, and the longer they are away, the less likely that they would even think about returning to the Big 12.
I think the ideal pair to come back to the Big 12--for geographic reasons--would be Arkansas and Missouri. But I don't think it will ever happen.
Also, as Utee has posted, the factors that drove realignment a decade ago are no longer present to the same degree.
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We showed more promise in losing to LSU than we have shown since. Why can't we put together a complete game?
Look... OU is a good team alright? But mostly due to studs, kinda like your high school team. CD Lang, Jalen Hurts. Texas doesn't have that. Texas has good players, but for Texas, it's either put together a complete game or bust - against teams like OU.
Now today Texas decides that the offense will sputter. WTH? And no, don't give me that OU has a great defense - I don't wanna hear it. OU has a good enough defense, and that's that.
Sam was flat, his receivers were flatter, and we still keep forcing the issue with Keontay Ingram. We lost 3-1/2 quarters wasting time on him. Did any of you catch how blitzing sooners ran right passed his ass straight to Sam?
Texas defense gave up some points, but OU is a volatile offense. They did enough to win, and likely would have done better if Texas offense could have been a tad more potent.
I'm ready for Texas to have a solid 60-minute showing on a Saturday. Haven't seen it in a while. WTF Herman?
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OU doesn't have a new AD. We've still got Joe Castiglione, the guy who hired Bob Stoops.
Sorry, I keep thinking about Boren. He's the one who took front and center for OU. Nobody knows that Italian guy from Adam.
And don't act like utee knows anything. He only swells up.
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Sorry, I keep thinking about Boren. He's the one who took front and center for OU. Nobody knows that Italian guy from Adam.
And don't act like utee knows anything. He only swells up.
Maybe you know Utee personally, but I don't. I haven't seen this swelling up thing. :57:
Re your previous post, I have this to say about Sam Ehlinger.
He sometimes lets being The Texas Longhorn Quarterback go to his head, which makes him say young-stud-stupid things like his comments on "horns down."
But he's a tough son-of-a-gun and a very good college QB. He put his team on his shoulders today, but that wasn't enough. We sacked him 9 times, hitting him hard every time, because he doesn't go down easy. And we hit him hard a bunch of other times too. And every time he got up and headed back to the huddle to come at us again. We'd be proud to have him if he were our QB.
Too bad he's a Horn. You guys should be glad you have him. He's your best QB since Six-Shooter.
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Also, as Utee has posted, the factors that drove realignment a decade ago are no longer present to the same degree.
You mean, before everyone signed "GOR" contracts, like we have now?
"as Utee has posted".... please, shut yo ass
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Too bad he's a Horn. You guys should be glad you have him. He's your best QB since Six-Shooter.
I'm proud and glad to have Sam because he loves his school, and it's his life dream. And yes, he's tough and all.
But overall, he's a notch below where Texas' next QB better be.
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You mean, before everyone signed "GOR" contracts, like we have now?
"as Utee has posted".... please, shut yo ass
:57:
I think it has to do with cable TV no longer driving the train moreso than grants of rights.
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I think it has to do with cable TV no longer driving the train moreso than grants of rights.
When those GOR's come up for renewal, we'll see who/what's tooting the horn up in the locomotive.
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GOR is irrelevant, no different than the exit penalties that preceded it. If Texas or OU wanted to leave today, it's nothing more than a negotiation to leave. Same as the exit penalties that preceded it.
Facts are that Texas and OU no longer have the impetus to leave that they did, or more correctly THOUHT they did, a decade ago. OU is realizing they have an easy path to the CFP and the money is close enough not to matter, and the delta will only diminish as the cable subscriber model vanishes.
And Texas never wanted to leave in the first place, TPTB rightly understand that they absolutely must maintain mindshare within the state og Texas, and bailing to a far flung conference like the PAC or B1G is completely out of the question. The SEC is the only one that could make any sense. For a while, 7-8 years ago, I thought it was likely to happen. But now there's just no need for it.
More's the pity 'cause like I said, having OU, A&M, and Arkansas all on the schedule again, would be a lot of fun.
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Bear in mind, when I say "realignment", I don't necessarily imply Texas leaving the Big XII. But all things aren't staying the same.
Big Ten - 14 teams with 5-6 helmets
SEC - 14 teams with 7-8 helmets
ACC - 15 teams with 2-3 helmets
Pac 12 - 12 teams (imagine that) with 3-4 helmets
Big 12 - 10 teams with 2 helmets
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Bear in mind, when I say "realignment", I don't necessarily imply Texas leaving the Big XII. But all things aren't staying the same.
Big Ten - 14 teams with 5-6 helmets
SEC - 14 teams with 7-8 helmets
ACC - 15 teams with 2-3 helmets
Pac 12 - 12 teams (imagine that) with 3-4 helmets
Big 12 - 10 teams with 2 helmets
BC we have visited this subject ad nauseum
nobody is going to do anything without the networks permission
they call the shots
so no more realignment will take place unless it makes economic sense
to them
robbing Peter to pay Paul does not make economic sense automatically
When the networks want realignment they will let us know
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When the networks want realignment they will let us know
And they're going to.
Next time you refute, have a refute.
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And they're going to.
Next time you refute, have a refute.
Well until they do all the rest is just pie in the sky jibber jabber
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And everything else we say here matters?
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As far as conference realignment goes I was thinking more in terms of "Post Cable", and post-networks. I think you will always have networks as long as you can throw up an antenna and get an over the air signal but millions of people are cutting the cord to cable just like I did last month. Right now you can subscribe to any number of streaming services for a much less cost and get pretty much the same thing.
But now just imagine something like the LHN. The LHN, produced and broadcast by ESPN and carried by cable/satellite companies. I'm pretty sure UT has a world class production studio on campus, and with the ability to stream a show online why exactly does UT need ESPN? Right now ESPN is just a middle man using their production and broadcast ability in exchange for money for UT. So if UT, or OU, or A&M were to cut out the middle man and produce their own network and broadcast their own games it could be much more profitable.
Networks are simply a middle man sucking up revenue and their model is disappearing. It might take another 10 years, heck it might take 20 but I think cable networks will disappear just like the landline and standard shift transmissions.
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Don't be wishing standard transmissions away, Gigem! :96:
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Like I said, as long as you can throw up an antenna and get a signal you'll still have networks. The only question is how long will the pay networks be able to stay in business?
Some school, somewhere, will figure out they don't need to give up anything to get broadcasted except what it takes to run the production and I'd posit that most helmet schools already have most of the facilities and hardware to do it on their own. Heck, back in the early 2000's A&M had to reschedule a game (maybe Tx St?) due to Hurricane Rita from a Saturday to Thursday. The athletic dept urged people not to travel to the game and they put the game on a smaller channel like Fox Sports SW and our radio announcers did the tv broadcast. It turned out OK I thought.
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The nice thing for the broadcast networks is that sports still fit their broadcast model. Since people want to watch sports live-action, and the broadcast model is based on advertising revenue scaled by how many eyeballs are watching that particular event, sports are one of the few entertainment options that still fit the eyeball model well.
How many of you know (and are sick of) the Dr. Pepper Fansville commercials? Most of us have seen those over and over. On the flipside, I have no idea what commercials run in my family's favorite scripted broadcast shows. We always FF right through them.
So the broadcast model is going to stick around for a while. The cable subscriber model-- or what I also refer to as the forced subsidy model-- on the other hand, is already dying off. Cable networks are already dropping the BTN in some of the B1G footprint. And cord cutters are skipping out on cable/DirectTV/Dish in ever-increasing numbers. The value in that model is diminishing rapidly. So the revenue from conference networks that rely on that model-- specifically the BTN and SECN--can only follow suit and diminish accordingly.
I see the college football revenue model sliding back to where we were 10-15 years ago with Tier1 and Tier2 contracts dominating. Since the Tier1 and Tier2 broadcast models won't have room for every single football game that's currently being broadcast via the cable subscriber (forced subsidy) model, as Gigem points out, there will be a lot of other streaming options available to the conferences, and/or individual schools, depending on how the contracts are written up.
Those revenue models aren't going to drive realignment. Something else might, like a split from the NCAA due to pay-for-play or other macro issues. But in that case, I believe the idea of conferences as we currently know them will change dramatically. I think it's likely some football-only and/or basketball-only alliances are formed, while the non-revenue sports remain regional, or BECOME more regional than they currently are in cases where schools are playing WAY out of their regions (WVU, Rutgers, etc.).
Just my thoughts. Could be wrong of course.
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well put utee
but until all this future hocus pocus actually happens the networks call the shots
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Well sure, but none of the recent expansion-mania was caused by the broadcast network partners. It was driven by the conferences themselves, the B1G and the SEC wanting to expand their cable subscriber footprints for the sake of their conference networks and the forced subsidy revenue model. If anything, those moves put the broadcast network partners in a position of LESS power, because the B1G and the SEC were able to gain incremental revenue by selling those Tier3 rights in a way that the networks had no control over, and their T1/T2 deals decreased as a % proportion of total conference revenue, further decreasing their power over the conferences.
The expansion moves have been conference driven, not network driven.
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utee its not so much what has happened in the past that of note instead its what is not happening now
If the networks wont adjust the payout calculation to fit expansion then it wont happen
I strongly suspect thats why the Big12 still only has 10 teams
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utee its not so much what has happened in the past that of note instead its what is not happening now
If the networks wont adjust the payout calculation to fit expansion then it wont happen
I strongly suspect thats why the Big12 still only has 10 teams
Definitely. The B12 has been flat-out told not to expand. The payouts won't increase. There's not one realistic add that could possibly add value to the conference's inventory, and so the conference hasn't expanded. The only additions that could bring value to the conference are unrealistic and won't happen.
But inventory and intellectual property aren't the only things that might drive conference realignment. In fact, compared to what college football is potentially facing with respect to pay-for-play, injury liability, anti-trust, collusion litigation, etc.-- incremental revenue from Tier3 forced subsidy networks is starting to look like small potatoes in the grand scheme of economic drivers.
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If the networks wont adjust the payout calculation to fit expansion then it wont happen
I strongly suspect thats why the Big12 still only has 10 teams
And you would be right. Well, at least that's why you don't see Houston and Cincinnati in the conference...
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Yup.
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Long term I have always felt that UH would add more to the conference than TCU. Not that UH is playing great this season but neither is TCU at this point.
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Long term I have always felt that UH would add more to the conference than TCU. Not that UH is playing great this season but neither is TCU at this point.
TCU had a good run some years back, and for some reason the sports media favorably latched onto them. Obviously they are not a helmet school, but they have obtained some helmet value in the Patterson reign. If they don't hold to same level of performance however, they will drop off the stage like a rock.
UH is a love/hate thing. One minute they are winning some games, drawing a decent crowd, fielding some good players, etc. The next minute you find yourself sitting in Minute Maid surrounded by empty bleachers and a damn train horn going off into the dead silence.
You hate to add UH to a conference because they can embarrass the hell out of you on a moment's notice.
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There used to be bad feelings between the UT administration and UH
not sure if they still exist
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TCU had a good run some years back, and for some reason the sports media favorably latched onto them. Obviously they are not a helmet school, but they have obtained some helmet value in the Patterson reign. If they don't hold to same level of performance however, they will drop off the stage like a rock.
UH is a love/hate thing. One minute they are winning some games, drawing a decent crowd, fielding some good players, etc. The next minute you find yourself sitting in Minute Maid surrounded by empty bleachers and a damn train horn going off into the dead silence.
You hate to add UH to a conference because they can embarrass the hell out of you on a moment's notice.
I think TCU is getting a lot of semi-helmet respect based on belief in their coaching staff's competence and consistency. Maybe sort of like KSU did in the early 2000s when Snyder had them running well? Even with some bad teams sprinkled in there, everyone knew that Snyder was a very good coach, working with less talent but coaching them up, and would typically be a tough out for anyone on their schedule. It seems like TCU is currently viewed similarly.
Houston hasn't had the consistent coaching, so they're not getting the consistent fan support, nor are they getting any BOTD from the mediots.
As long as Patterson stays, TCU will remain a decent program. But long term, I don't think either one is a "better add" than the other, because unless they find another Patterson, TCU will always be a stepping-stone program, and quite obviously that's what Houston is, as well.
From a booster perspective, TCU has always had the more "monied" boosters, because it's a legacy situation of generational wealth, while Houston is a commuter school. So TCU typically had more power in the state legislature than Houston did. That speaks to how TCU is able to play in the power-political circles of Texas, while UH has usually struggled to do so.
Anecdotally, of the 4 UH grads I know well, 3 of them root for other Texas teams that they grew up pulling for (1 Texas, 1 A&M, 1 Tech) because they only went to Houston out of necessity/convenience. The 4th one is extremely wealthy and a large Houston supporter, but I just don't know how much strong fan/booster support Houston will ever be able to generate since so many of its grads seem to identify with other schools as their primary fanship.
Just some of my observations anyway.