CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: OrangeAfroMan on October 07, 2019, 01:38:43 AM
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Interested to see how ole Joe Burrow fares against a big-boy defense.
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Interesting to what the LSU defense throws at a freshman QB with a porous OL.
This might get ugly.
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Interested to see how long it will take LSU fans to get Trask's phone number.
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Interesting to what the LSU defense throws at a freshman QB with a porous OL.
This might get ugly.
Mullen did a masterful job against a great DL with an OL that can't run block. He didn't shy away from running the ball - getting 2 yards at a time or no gain, etc. - just sort of keeping the defense honest. The OL is decent at pass pro, and he can work with that. Florida is a different offense without the running of Franks.
Perine busting a long TD run was sort of a bonus, but it goes to show why you keep running the ball "enough" while it's ineffective. I don't know why LSU's defense would be any bigger a task than Auburn's was.
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LSU is a 13.5 point favorite. Wow...why did we bother beating Auburn?
I'm not going to sit here and say Florida will win or that LSU won't score plenty, but I'm amazed that the pedestrian, defensive team is once again being looked down upon vs the high-scoring machine that hasn't played anyone lately. LSU has a sound offensive plan, I'm sure...but how will they fare when they get punched in the mouth and the Plan A doesn't work with ease?
I don't doubt Burrow's ability and the home crowd will help if the offense faces a valid resistance...but LSU's Plan B is an unknown. They haven't had to go to it yet this year.
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I'd probably take Florida and the points, but I'd take LSU to win, something like 28-20 or so.
And I think LSU will be creative on blitzing and perhaps confuse the Gator QB. That's what I'd do anyway. UGA did it in the second half against the Vols, I don't know why they waited exactly. Maybe they figured Mauer would not be that accurate passing.
The Gator QB of course has more experience now, so he's not exactly raw.
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Odd rash of injuries and defections has left LSU pretty thin in the defensive backfield. Safety Todd Harris lost for the year against NW St. CB Flott injured last week against Utah St. and won't be available. CBs Kelvin Joseph and Kenan Jones entered the transfer portal, both would have played this year.
Kary Vincent struggled so far this year after playing very well last year, so last week they moved him to more of a safety role which looked to suit him better. The shuffle allowed Fulton to move to a slot corner position where teams have been lining up their best WR on us. The result was nice, but can they do it now with all the injuries?
With Flott out and assuming Jones is red-shirted, LSU is down to Stingley, Fulton and Ward for scholarship CBs. Hope nobody gets hurt.
That includes the UF QB. I really hope they're not rolling the dice with that kid's knee. If he gets hit and hurts it, that's not gonna be a good look.
Good news is we may be getting some defensive starters back who have been out since the Texas game. They're not 100% and may not even play, but the staff says a couple of them are "available" this week.
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Everybody is dinged up of course. Florida lost their starting QB, a situation which would flush the season for many teams.
UGA without Fromm would be in trouble.
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Florida wouldn't have put Trask back in the Auburn game if he was hurt-hurt. And the guy behind him will play vs LSU as well - as planned. He's not a run-first guy with a limited playbook, either. He'd be fine if pressed into full-time duty. We have actual QB depth!
Trask is decent at knowing to get the ball out quickly on a blitz, but his biggest weakness is feeling pressure around him. He holds the ball when there isn't a blitz and hasn't been scooting up when there's a big open area in the front of the pocket. The DL gets behind him and causes fumbles because he doesn't feel it yet.
But he's a new starter and if that's his biggest problem, he's doing something right. IF - big if - LSU is one-dimensional, and either can't run or abandons the run, that will play into Florida's hands. We're among the national leaders in both sacks and picks.
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There is I guy I see on the running track who has an LSU hat on, sometimes I walk with him a bit, he knows his football. He's pretty confident while saying it's obviously not a sure thing, and he was also surprised at the size of the spread. We both figured maybe 31-21. He said he was not sold on Auburn this season and wasn't surprised they struggled on offense and had TOs.
I usually run/walk/jog, I've been out of it traveling and it's tough getting back. Nice day today at least.
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Well I just wrote a bunch of stuff on my phone and then it got magically deleted. There's 15 minutes I'm never getting back.
Basically the key matchup for me is LSU OL vs. Florida DL. That will determine the pace of the game and maybe the winner.
Gators wear jorts.
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Turnovers might determine the outcome (duh). The guy with the LSU cap on says their defense is getting healthy now for the first time.
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They were healthy for Georgia State and they started healthy for Texas. So this wouldn't technically be healthy for the first time, although I think he's overstating it a bit.
One of the guys hurt in the UT game is back for sure and looks fine. Two others "may play" according to the coach, but all indications say they're not 100% if they do play. A fourth guy is still definitely out.
We also lost a CB for this week, tho he wasn't hurt in the Texas game. It's going to be a bit before I'd term the defense "healthy," or, back to its original lineup.
We can go with the guys we have. They just need to tackle and not do stupid stuff.
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We get DE Zungia back. He was dressed vs Auburn, but never actually went in.
If I was LSU, I'd strickly run between the tackles, because our edge guys are stupid-good. I'd shy away from throwing Henderson's way and focus on throwing on Marco Wilson. He hasn't been as good since he's been back as he was before. And if #29 Jaewan Taylor is on the field, throw his way every time - he couldn't cover a sneeze.
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More concerning than the guys we're missing on D is that WR Marshall is out for a while. There's definitely other guys who physically fit the profile, but there's just something "extra" about that unit when Jefferson, Chase, and Marshall are all on the field at the same time. Can't cover three guys like that all at once. Jefferson and Chase are still Jefferson and Chase, but it hasn't been the same since Marshall broke his foot. Other guys have catches in his place, but it's not the same stress on a defense. There's a sort of chemistry those three appeared to have together and with Burrow that probably can't be replaced.
Against a pass defense like Florida, I'd rather have Marshall back and healthy than any of the guys on D.
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I put my faith in some random guy wearing an LSU hat.
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At least he's realistic. I've seen some LSU fans who think we're going to win like 42-17.
I guess that could happen if Florida does a lot of dumb stuff (see: Auburn) and LSU plays a perfect game, but a good contest, relatively low scoring, with some sloppiness and turnovers seems like a safer bet. Also fits more with the history of this series.
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I chat with him because he is realistic (in my experience). He's on the heavy side and is just walking, but he's out there walking. He likes to talk football but seems not to know much outside LSU and who they are playing. And yes, Florida could turn the ball over 4 times to 1 and it could get out of hand. And that could bounce the other way.
I'm interested in how well the Gators are able to generate some offense.
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While tracking defensive numbers for a formula I do and write about on another site, I noticed Florida has 12 INTs through their first 5 games. That's outstanding. Not sure about their schedule, but that's good regardless.
I wonder why their fans keep saying they can't run the ball. Perine had 130 and a TD against Auburn. Auburn's front is legit and their line is likely better than LSU's.
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I recall Perine had one long run to finish, right? Otherwise he might have been mostly contained for the day.
I figure turnovers are more random things than something a team can really emphasize. If you have one great cover corner, the other team usually doesn't throw that way.
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Florida hasn't gotten any kind of consistent push in the running game all year, including against FCS teams. Perine had an 88 yarder, otherwise he had like 20 carries for 50 yards.
Florida uses the run as a change-up only. Not expecting to get yards, but doing it solely to keep the defense honest. That's what impressed me so much about Mullen and the play-calling - being willing to call enough runs, knowing they're unlikely to yield the yardage you want - just to keep things going.
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Not the game I expected, although the score was ballpark. I figured Florida would harass Burrow more and that LSU would not allow so many sustained drives.
We don't have the pass rush to be an NC caliber team, but I like everything else about this team so far.
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that one was wide open, huh?
what i like most about both of these teams is they don't seem to stop playing when it looks as if the play is over. they dig in and press. that is the way it's supposed to be played, but in today's hurry up it seems as if teams are more want to go down and get back up and to the LoS to start again than they are to fight through.
All said, though, i still don't have either team pegged. UF is perhaps better than I thought, and improving as they weren't as sloppy the last two weeks. LSU is holding steady and they're as good as i figure- which is contingent on UF's D being as good as i think too.. but back to that "not sure about either" thing.
i flipped around between the Iowa/PSU game and the USC/ND game.... and this after watching parts of the RRSO and UGA/USCe, and Bama/aTm... who in the world would ever have thought watching the B1G would be more like watching early century SEC and the SEC more like watching '05-'15 or so BigXII? and the ACC? Horrid, except for Clemson they don't know how to score- and then I watched some of the UL/WFU game, and it turns out? they do...
My personal opinion right now has LSU in the lower third of the top tier handily...
1- Bama +/- tOSU, Clemson,
2- OU, LSU +/- Wisconsin
3- UGA, UF, Texas, ND +/- Auburn
that would be my top ten... i'll be accused of being an SEC homer, but... it's not like i'd have any love for the west. LSU sharing space with Wisconsin is a good thing. I'm thinking Wiscy is really that good this season.
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Yeah, I think Florida's defense isn't a good as advertised, but the team, overall, is better. The Gators weren't getting a lot of respect, aside from the defense.
It would have been fun if we tied it up at 35.....
Good effort by both sides. They were a little chippy, but these are big-boy teams. Losing Greenard stunk. No idea how we allowed those big runs over and over - that was from out of nowhere.
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that would be my top ten... i'll be accused of being an SEC homer, but... it's not like i'd have any love for the west. LSU sharing space with Wisconsin is a good thing. I'm thinking Wiscy is really that good this season.
Yeah, if you removed the helmets and names from the teams and there were no preseason rankings, Wisconsin would be ranked #1 and it wouldn't be close.
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I'd flip OU up to the top tier, and Clemson down. OU appears to play defense now, which....giving Lincoln Riley a defense really ought to be illegal. Clemson just doesn't move me until further notice. Thrashing FSU is nice, but I mean c'mon...FSU is a name only at this point.
I'm sure not having Greenard most of the game was a definite minus for Florida, but that's likely still a very good defense. The coverage in particular was by far the best LSU has seen this year. Unless you've poured over the film this year (and why would you if you're not an LSU fan) you might miss in the back and forth that this was BY FAR the hardest LSU has worked for its yards and points to date. They had to mix the playcalling more by necessity, and had to work their way down the field for basically the first time this year.
I think Florida has some depth issues, but the starting defense is still very good imo. Our OL did well and while Grantham didn't blitz as much as his reputation, they did at times but the OL picked it up each time. 0 sacks allowed and 0 QB hurries allowed against Florida is good. Punting only twice against Florida is good.
I'm not even mad at the tackling or coverage. Trask is just better than I expected. He and the receivers just made plays. The only cure for guys like that is a superb pass rush, and we just don't have it. I know LSU fans, pundits and internet doofuses like us will talk a lot about LSU's "suspect pass defense" but honestly, just watch the film. They've cleaned up a lot of tackling woes from the Texas game and they almost always have as good of position/coverage as you could ask for. We just don't have the pass rush to help them out and a good QB and good receivers are going to win some plays with enough time. I've said it before and I'll say it again: LSU is just an elite pass rush away from being as good as anybody.
We'll see how UGA responds to this weekend, but I've been slowly losing some confidence in them. Not enough to make them not the favorites in the east, but Florida's stock is rising after last night. They went toe to toe with a very good LSU team in a hostile environment, really the game hinged on about two plays LSU made that Florida could not. Stingley's INT and a goal line stand is what separated this game from covering the spread to being tied and going to OT. The Cocktail Party is shaping up to be great. Maybe between now and then Kirby Smart will remember that he has one of the best QBs on his roster and start being more aggressive. I would've thought that after UGA's recent games against Alabama, holding leads and trying to sit on them late, Smart would've abandoned that philosophy and adopted a more aggressive "hell with you, we're gonna keep coming" mentality, but UGA so far seems determined to slow the game down, minimize the number of plays (WHY? when you have better recruits and Jake Fromm, go ahead and maximize the number of plays to lessen the chances of a something wonky happening) and take a "safe" approach. I just don't think that's the era we're in right now with the SEC.
Mullen didn't play it safe last night, he went for it nearly every chance he could, however that looked, and UF may be gaining ground on UGA simply by nature of the game right now.
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One thing that pops out to me on LSU is the defensive side. Dave Aranda's crew is giving up a lot more points than I'm used to seeing.
What's going on there?
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Yeah, if you removed the helmets and names from the teams and there were no preseason rankings, Wisconsin would be ranked #1 and it wouldn't be close.
Ohio State in Columbus looms in 2 weeks, and they can't afford any letdown at Illinois this week.
I'm starting to believe in them. They look really good, especially on defense. Kudos to Jimmy Leonhard.
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UGA just showed us how important good play from the QB is- Fromm was out of sync all afternoon.
go back and watch the last three UGA drives. Fromm took the snap, turned toward the right side of the field, and attempted passes he shouldn't have been attempting- meanwhile, on the left side of the field, there was a receiver WIDE OPEN every. single. time. I kept waiting for him to turn and discover that- thinking that receiver was a safety dump 'when all else failed' but he never aimed at him. He never even looked- instead opting for difficult throws he usually makes- but being out of sync for whatever reason he couldn't.... all the while, the top of the field and ten to fifteen yards of open field was wide. slam. open. it's perplexing.
judging on 'drive' alone, which i define as 'effort beyond the design of the play', LSU AND UF have it. What i mean by that is: a swing pass to the outside at shallow depth is intent to gain around 5~7 yards and is contingent on the CB and/or LB pulling off the receiver and attacking the ball- the RB being the target as the DL's close in on the pocket and after the RB feigns block... it's generally a good play to screen on aggressive D's, if for nothing else to keep them honest and reluctant to attack the QB.. 5~7yards is the goal.
problem: both LSU and UF RB's missed the memo that they're supposed to go down when hit either open field or by the 'gang', and fight through. MOST teams do just that- it's a 'go to work' mentality meaning "job is accomplished; reset". Those yards after contact are substantial, and NOT only in the described play, but by all players... QB's picking up blocks... Players pushing from behind. the level of EFFORT is substantial and a reason for both these teams success thus far. They're not relying on scheme alone- they're MAKING the plays happen. They're capable of finesse, but they're 'powering' too.
that shows me a team that has fully 'bought in' and putting effort into every play, which is demonstrative of superb coaching.
that's why these teams will win now and in the future. There is a lot to look forward to with these programs... and I love it when LSU wins, because I get to see more of Coach O 'talking' to the media... "dem boys gone play dare heart out durn foobah playhah don quit on dat fiel till hear dang whistle meanin time expihe. i love dem some fight but gotta figah what do bout dem sho fieldage plays and gonna figuh dat out come sat-day wif dat tuff game 'head.."
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One thing that pops out to me on LSU is the defensive side. Dave Aranda's crew is giving up a lot more points than I'm used to seeing.
What's going on there?
See above. No pass rush. Front 4 just not good at it and Aranda has disappointed me overall in his willingness to get creative. Now in his 4th year, a consistent theme is that 1) LSU hasn't had pass rushers in the interior of the line like our great teams of a decade ago, 2) Our defense is still amazing at everything else and looks amazing when Aranda uses blitzes, stunts, or anything confusing to offset that deficiency, and 3) Aranda is mostly unwilling for whatever reasons to do that. We started out that way against Texas in the first half, held them to 7, abandoned it in the second half, Texas scored every drive. We waited until into the 3rd quarter to start sending extra pressure on Florida....Florida scores 21 in the first half, did not score again after applying more pressure.
Your old axiom is 1) run the ball 2) stop the run 3) pressure the QB. LSU doesn't do #3.
It's actually quite something, the completion % and YPA lsu has allowed the last two years when you consider they are getting zero help up front.
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Ohio State in Columbus looms in 2 weeks, and they can't afford any letdown at Illinois this week.
I'm starting to believe in them. They look really good, especially on defense. Kudos to Jimmy Leonhard.
I do a modified YPA formula for QBs and defenses for another site for a piece we do. Obviously schedules are extremely dissimilar in this sport, but it makes for good conversation anyway. Wisconsin's DPI (defensive productivity index) right now is an amazing 1.45 ypp play allowed. It probably won't stay that way, elite defenses usually finish a year in the 3's, but I've only seen elite defenses dip down into the 2's in the middle of the season. In all the years I've been tracking it, I've never seen a 1.45 at the halfway mark. Remarkable. Missouri is leading the SEC with a 3.34 right now, and Clanga finished last year with about a 3.49 (iirc), if that gives you some reference.
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football being a strategic game as one of the aspects, which is aside from players but contingent on those players production, something i'd point out:
John Madden said: (paraphrased) "when an offense resorts to trickeration it tips the defense their coach has no confidence in their ability to move the ball".
LSU got hot on pressure right after UF got cute. if it were a chess match instead of a football game, UF had just got it's queen boxed by a couple knights and exposed the King. not a death-punch, but.... close enough. they were in a shootout, which is where it seemed LSU was happy to draw them which is to rely on Offense as the defense. UF fought hard imHo, but they couldn't survive the onslaught.
.... and that is SEC West football in a box. Instead of epic defensive showdowns the intent is to focus on Offensive threats to draw games into shootouts and race the clock instead of control it. some coaches have confidence enough in their offense to do that i'm thinking. it only takes one terrible mismatch on the field to exploit it- or it takes several dimensions of offense to keep the D perpetually off balance in my opinion.
I'm surprised Mullen was drawn away from his teams strength and goaded into shooting- he should have used offense (arm chair after the fact analysis) to slow the game down instead of having Frisk slinging like he was... full tilt games are a blast to watch, but they're reckless too- and can allow multiple scoring opportunities between opponents which absolutely forces the team behind outside of their comfort zone and to a place they cannot re-assume their comfort level of play. Coach O pulled Mullen right in- and won the 'strategy' part of this game. it unraveled for certain with that cute reverse/end around pass attempt. That's when LSU sent the dogs after Frisk and UF lost hope.
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LSU definitely wanted the game to be fast paced and high scoring, but it played into Florida's hands about as well as it could. Florida did slow the game down with time-consuming methodical drives, ending in points, none of which LSU wants.
LSU did not a want a rock fight where Florida could hang around and pull something out at the end. They wanted a boatrace because they figured they would have more drives for points than Florida. They thought they could get some stops and go up by 2+ TDs and take Florida way out of their comfort zone. The thought was right, LSU's defense just couldn't get off the field when they needed to and LSU wasn't ready for that.
The real back and forth wasn't just on the scoreboard, but described in the TOP stat. LSU kept trying to force the issue with a faster pace but Florida kept slowing it down, successfully, and with points. LSU only punted twice, but if they'd scored after moving the ball on the first drive--or even hit the FG try--it would've been headed more into the territory LSU wanted it. They couldn't convert and the game got perpetually stalemated between LSU's pace and Florida's.
It's still quite an adjustment as a fan. Once LSU gets a lead at the end of a game I'm so used to seeing defense close it out and the offense run the clock out. Staying balls out and throwing for first downs is not the way I'm accustomed to seeing LSU try to end games they're winning. This offense is what it is. Their play selection on the back end wasn't just bravado with the weaker teams....it's how this offense is built and called now. When you're up by 6 on Texas at their place near the end, it's 3rd and 17, and you don't just run and punt, but throw a strike that converts for points, and when you have the lead against UF with a weaker OL and the defense has finally gotten home a couple times, but you keep running the same offense.....it just is what it is now.
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See above. No pass rush. Front 4 just not good at it and Aranda has disappointed me overall in his willingness to get creative. Now in his 4th year, a consistent theme is that 1) LSU hasn't had pass rushers in the interior of the line like our great teams of a decade ago, 2) Our defense is still amazing at everything else and looks amazing when Aranda uses blitzes, stunts, or anything confusing to offset that deficiency, and 3) Aranda is mostly unwilling for whatever reasons to do that. We started out that way against Texas in the first half, held them to 7, abandoned it in the second half, Texas scored every drive. We waited until into the 3rd quarter to start sending extra pressure on Florida....Florida scores 21 in the first half, did not score again after applying more pressure.
Your old axiom is 1) run the ball 2) stop the run 3) pressure the QB. LSU doesn't do #3.
It's actually quite something, the completion % and YPA lsu has allowed the last two years when you consider they are getting zero help up front.
He's still running the 3-4, correct? I mean, I know it's a 3-4 but it doesn't look like a 3-4 most of the time when he's got LB's lined up with their hands in the dirt and all that.
Is the NT and DE's the problem here, or is it the LB's?
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He's still running the 3-4, correct? I mean, I know it's a 3-4 but it doesn't look like a 3-4 most of the time when he's got LB's lined up with their hands in the dirt and all that.
Is the NT and DE's the problem here, or is it the LB's?
the rush LB doesn't play with a hand in the dirt.
"problem" is maybe not the term I'd use, but for this particular ailment, it's the entire front 4. They're great at run stuffing, and they're great two-gappers, when Aranda lets the LBs work to that end behind them. The issue is Aranda keeps prefers to use his LBs in other ways most of the time, the rush LB basically has one move and doesn't often beat a tackle, let alone demand a double team, and the 3 down linemen just aren't the type to shed blocks and penetrate the backfield. They're much more of the occupy blockers ilk. This just isn't a front 4 that's going to cause a lot of disruption by themselves, which is what we've been seeing the last 2+ years.
The NT did push the pocket back very well most of last night. Aranda kept taking him out of the game on 3rd and long. It was infuriating. He'd be a driving force between two good defensive plays, then he'd come out, Florida would convert.
The unit looks best to me when Aranda blitzes a LB or a safety from tricky angles or uses well designed stunts. The front 4 eats so much space that those other guys have a lot of room to work. It's just not something we do much. Me personally, if a team like Florida is going to eat us up in man coverage anyway, I'd rather go straight man, let our great DBs earn their schollys, and let the front 7 attack more. In a game like last night's, it really couldn't go any worse. Our coverage was good and we made tackles, so if they're gonna hit completions anyway and we limit the damage, I'd rather take more chances on getting negative plays since the risk of attacking more is something we were pretty much experiencing anyway. Indeed, when Aranda finally took some chances, we got a few key stops.
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Orgeron has repeatedly stressed the need for linemen who can get after the QB. He just hasn't recruited any so far.
They exist, they've just all been going to Alabama for the last several years. They've had quite a few two-gappers who were still excellent at shedding blocks and penetrating. It's a misnomer that a two-gap guy doesn't get after the QB. They're just more rare.
Before LSU looks like a vintage LSU defense, they'll have to get that guy on the interior of the line who is a brutal run stuffer and also a pass rush terror. We've been okay with our rush LBs on the edge, but you can account for that most of the time. If you can get consistent pressure from two different spots, you've really got something.
IMO a rather limited pass rush is what separates LSU from the top teams. If they had that--or Aranda can find a way to manufacture it--this really is a very good defense despite the problems we see discussed.
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Orgeron has repeatedly stressed the need for linemen who can get after the QB. He just hasn't recruited any so far.
That's not how Aranda's D worked in Madison, and I guess it's the same in Baton Rouge.
The front 3 are there to eat space and let the LB's do their work. I've noticed over the years that it's tough to get higher rated DL kids in that system, because the "glory" isn't there for them. It's still like that today in Madison, under Leonhard (and for the year before him, Wilcox).
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I'm okay with that as long as the LBs are actually allowed to go do the dirty work. They patrol the flats and leverage run options and stuff like that while the line stays in a lot of cage rushes and such.
It's not a scheme I care for. It's great for not allowing many big plays but I'd happily trade a few of those per game for more pressure and havoc in the pocket and getting off the field more. Stats say we'd be better off in the long run with more negative plays, more 3 and outs, but giving up the odd long ball.
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That nose tackle is a beast. And 18 was good, but LSU is missing that Mingo/Key-type guy.
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Chaisson doesn't have much experience playing football. He started late in high school and got injured for the season in the opener against Miami last year. He's physically gifted but still pretty new to this. Some NFL team will probably take a flier on him and after a couple seasons he'll be better than he ever was in college.