CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 04, 2019, 06:14:35 PM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-5-11486/).
Votes through me, 17 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/khLJSWW.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/zNd2tPF.png)
Graph of rankings so far this year:
(https://i.imgur.com/zak2A3s.jpg)
Change so far this year (aka COTY prediction graph):
(https://i.imgur.com/CoT7K8Q.jpg)
Vote distribution graph:
(https://i.imgur.com/mgcECLU.jpg)
Schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/SD1nD4H.png)
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1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Michigan State
7. Minnesota
8. Northwestern
9. Maryland
10. Nebraska
11. Indiana
12. Illinois
13. Purdue
14. Rutgers
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1. OSU
2. Wisc
3. PSU
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4. Mich
5. Iowa
6. MSU
7. Minn
8. MD
9. INDY
10. Neb
11. NW
12. Pur
13. ILL
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14. Rut
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1. Ohio State: Leaving them here for now due to beating a good team, though they looked very mortal at times. The start of that game reminded me of 2015, though the main difference was that Ryan Day didn't keep trying to run the same play all game. Some nice calls that sprung some big plays to widen a pretty tough game. The defense looked a bit rickety at times, though the final stats weren't bad. Well see what SP says.
2. Wisconsin: Whipped a bad team. Will know more next week.
3. Penn State: Paved a short handed Purdue team, but my goodness. Their defense has been special, and they are forcing their way into a top three instead of a top two.
4. Michigan State: Came to play against OSU. The defense is strong, and they get enough offense to beat teams. If they could get a more consistent running game, they'd be right in the mix.
5. Michigan: Offense still DOA, but the defense is rounding into form. Don Brown is coaching his tail off, and the youngsters are making some plays. Still, you have to score.
6. Iowa: Not quite dynamic enough to make Michigan pay, but they went on the road and played some defense.
7, Minnesota: Chugging right along. Are they getting better? Still waiting for them to play a team with a pulse.
8. Indiana: I can't remember where I placed them last week. They could squeeze into the top six.
9. Nebraska: Got mucked up by Northwestern, but got the win.
10. Northwestern: Mucking people up, but can't get a win.
11. Purdue: I suppose
12. Maryland: Well they won a game
13. Illinois: No more Lovie feeling
14. Rutgers: :(
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1 Ohio State
2 Penn State - Why is everyone sleeping on these guys?
3 Wisconsin
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4 Michigan
5 Michigan State
6 Iowa
7 Minnesota
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8 Nebraska
9 Maryland
10 Northwestern
11 Indiana
12 Purdue
13 Illinois
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14 Rutgers
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Hey friends. I usually don't participate here because I think rankings cause nonsensical angst.
But we're like three rankings in and I already have nonsensical angst. I can't throw stones without participating (that would be super rude), so here we go.
1. OSU - Is this a question? Are we actually talking about OSU looking not great? This is something CFB does, making us see small flaws that happen across a 12-game season and think, is this a thing to worry over? OSU played the No. 2 SP+ defense. It got 7.1 yards per play. It played a not-good offense. It held it to 4.5 yards per play, which is what the No. 125 offense in the land is putting up. Maybe OSU is vulnerable to a top-6 team. But it would still be favored by nine over UW on a neutral field.
Gap
2. UW - Smushing Kent State is good. Defense is superb. Offense has some ups and downs. I think UW could give OSU a game on the right day, but a No.2 by a slight margin.
3. PSU - Just rolling along, mushing so-so and bad teams. They're No. 3 in yards per play allowed and top-10 in offensive yards per play. Schedule helps, but they're doing what's needed.
4. Michigan - This might be prisoner of the moment. Wolverines trail MSU and Iowa in SRS, but lead in FPI. Haven't seen SP+ yet. Michigan just beat Iowa, and there doesn't feel like a ton of separation. MSU has two losses.
5. MSU (I guess) - Sitting ahead of Iowa because they were feistier against a better team, not averaging 3.6 yards per play with four turnovers in a winnable game.
6. Iowa - see pervious two entries
7. Minnesota - What the hell do I do with you? You're 5-0 with an atrocious schedule. And you played unimpressive. This is a placeholder.
8. Maryland - I kinda like IU and Neb better, but the numbers favor Md., even if the schedule means bowling will be harder
9. Indiana - Has Tom allen done a good job? No bowls is a sticking point, but they've been kinda feisty and not bottoming out. His bowl path looked tough, but the degradation of the bottom of the conference could save him.
10. Nebraska - The expected rise has not happened, but they have four wins and will be favored at least twice more. So a bowl would be real progress, even though it doesn't feel like it.
11. NW - Holy hell, they're 1-4, and the back half of the schedule means a bowl is ever so slightly possible
12. Purdue - Sorry about the QB, though the threat of losing Brohm is now very low.
13. Illinois - If they're smart, they'll go option. They're not, so they'll hire another recruiter to finally get the talent from Chi/Stl or maybe a Bear Raid guy
14. Rutgers - There is no hope
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1. Ohio State - I have them at 1 overall too.
2. Wisconsin.
3. Penn State, but I'm soft on this.
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota - congrats on being undefeated
7. MSU
8. Nebraska
9. Indiana
10. UMd
11. NW
12. Illinois
13. Purdue
14. Rutger
I thought the bottom of the SEC was bad.
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1. Ohio State - I have them at 1 overall too.
2. Wisconsin.
3. Penn State, but I'm soft on this.
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota - congrats on being undefeated
7. MSU
8. Nebraska
9. Indiana
10. UMd
11. Indiana
12. Illinois
13. Purdue
14. Rutger
I thought the bottom of the SEC was bad.
Which Indiana was supposed to be Northwestern?
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The second one, sorry. Thanks, I fixed it.
In national rankings, the jury is still out of course, but this is my top ten:
1. OSU
2. Bama
3. Oklahoma
4. LSU
5. UGA
6. Clemson
7. Wisconsin
8. Notre Dame
9. Florida
10. Texas
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1)tOSU
2)UW
3)PSU
4)Gophs - undefeated
5)Mich.
6)MSU
7)Iowa
8)Indiana
9)Nebraska
10)Terps
11)Northwestern
12)Illini
13)Purdue
14)NJ State
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1. Ohio State - I have them at 1 overall too.
Putting an SEC hex on us - Bastage
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Michigan State
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Minnesota
8. Nebraska
9. Indiana
10. Northwestern
11. Maryland
12. Illinois
13. Purdue
14. Rutgers
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1. OSU
2. Wisconsin
3. PSU
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4. MSU
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Nebraska
8. Minnesota
9. Northwestern
10. Maryland
11. Indiana
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12. Purdue
13. Illinois
14. Rutger
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1) Ohio State (1)
2) Wisconsin (2)
3) Penn State (3)
4) Michigan State (4)
5) Michigan (5)
6) Iowa (6)
7) Minnesota (7)
8) Maryland (8)
9) Nebraska (9)
10) Indiana (11)
11) Northwestern (10)
12) Purdue (12)
13) Illinois (13)
14) Rutgers (14)
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan State
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Minnesota
8. Maryland
9. Nebraska
10. Northwestern
11. Indiana
12. Illinois
13. Purdue
14. Lehigh
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1. Ohio State - Dominant again in their toughest game yet.
2. Wisconsin - Another dominant win over a bad team, as expected.
3. Michigan - Relieved to get the win but thought they team could've played better, especially with the pass offense and pass defense (too many 3rd and long conversions allowed)
4. Penn State - Next week they finally play a top 25 team. I'll give them their due if they win in Iowa City.
5. Minnesota - Finally dominated a worse team. We'll see if they can get to 8-0....
6. Michigan State - I thought they might be more competitive, but their defense got burned after forcing the early turnovers.
7. Iowa - I thought they were better before this weekend, but they didn't look that great on either side, and Michigan's offense simply couldn't blow it open.
8. Nebraska - Assuming Martinez will be back....
9. Indiana - I guess.... We'll find out in the next few weeks.
10. Maryland - They can still salvage their season in the next few weeks but not sure they will.
11. Northwestern - Still good defense and bad offense.
12. Purdue - Only this high by default.
13. Illinois - They weren't even competitive this week.
14. Rutgers - Pretty much clinched it at this point. I'm not sure they'll even beat Liberty.
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1. Ohio State - What else is there to say? The Goliath of the B1G
2. Wisconsin - Jonathan Taylor is incredible.
3. Michigan - Rising up the rankings again. They need to develop an offense soon if they want to stay this high.
4. Iowa - I think if they had played Michigan at home they would have won. That game could have gone either way.
5. Michigan State - They may be the 3rd best team in the conference, but at this point they have two losses. Honestly, spots 3-5 are so close...
6. Penn State - I know that everyone is putting them at #3, but I think that's a mistake. The Penn State offense has struggled against good to average defenses, they will struggle mightily against a strong Iowa defense. Especially at night in Kinnick. The defense looks good, but they are vulnerable to the big play. They will lose Saturday night.
7. Minnesota - That was a complete game. Confidence is a dangerous thing, and the improvement from week to week is noticeable. I'm not a believer yet, but I'm getting close...
8. Nebraska - No shame in losing to OSU, and I probably shouldn't be penalizing them so much for an overtime loss to Colorado. Still, something doesn't quite seem right about this team yet...
9. Indiana - I still feel like this may be a sneaky good team.
10. Northwestern - Unlike in years past, they keep finding ways to lose the close games.
11. Maryland - This team is so confusing. Is Rutgers really THAT bad? Maybe Maryland is better than we think, but had a two week brain fart.
12. Purdue - There are a LOT of very good young players on this team. Unfortunately, half of them are injured. Still, I love the fight they showed against PSU. David Bell is the real deal, and they've got a freshman defensive lineman that may be the best player Penn State has seen all year.
13. Illinois -
14. Rutgers -
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6. Penn State - I know that everyone is putting them at #3, but I think that's a mistake. The Penn State offense has struggled against good to average defenses, they will struggle mightily against a strong Iowa defense. Especially at night in Kinnick. The defense looks good, but they are vulnerable to the big play. They will lose Saturday night.
BBTS: All you would need to do is add "DOOOOOMED!" to your vocabulary, and you could sandbag with the Texicans. ;)
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- OHIO STATE (1) - nothing left to say
- WISCONSIN (2) - bye week
- PENN STATE (3) - Franklin starting to prove me wrong
- MICHIGAN (6) - All defense, zero offense Pt I
- IOWA (4) - Pt II
- MICHIGAN STATE (5) - Pt III
- MINNESOTA (7) - undefeated, but their 5 opponents rank as follows in Massey composite: FCS, #73, #94, #93, #108
- INDIANA (8) - bye week
- MARYLAND (9) - truly everyone gets right against Rutgers
- NEBRASKA (10) - is the offense officially a concern?
- NORTHWESTERN (12) - if they just had a LITTLE offense
- PURDUE (11) - an yet a 5-2 finish to get into a bowl is not unfathomable
- ILLINOIS (13) - you'd think Minnesota would be kinder to the opponent who beat the Gophers last year to jump start them
- RUTGERS (14) - just keeps getting worse
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1) Ohio State
2) Wisconsin
3) Penn State
4) Michigan
5) Iowa
6) Michigan State
7) Minnesota
8) Nebraska
9) Indiana
10) Maryland
11) Northwestern
12) Purdue
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
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1. Ohio State - Still rolling.
2. Wisconsin - Not much of a test playing Kent St, but did what they needed to do.
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3. Penn State - Looking good against bad teams. We'll know more next week.
4. Michigan State - Great Defense, just not much depth. Also, Lewerke played what I thought was a very good game. His ability to throw the ball on target impressed me.
5. Michigan - Good Defense, but still looking like offense is a foreign concept.
6. Iowa - Decent offense that was exposed by a good defense. However, they will win some games.
7. Minnesota - Really not sure they belong in this group. But here for now as they have beaten everyone on their schedule to this point.
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8. Nebraska - Losing Martinez hurts. Hopefully he is not out long.
9. Maryland - Looked good against Rutgers, but who doesn't?
10. Northwestern - Actually put up a good fight with all of the injuries they have to deal with. This team shows a lot of heart and is a reflection of their coach.
11. Indiana - Bye week.
12. Illinois - From what I understand, most of their points were scored by the defense. Kind of a good news/ bad news thing.
13. Purdue - Another team dealing with too many injuries.
14. Rutgers - Have they thought about taking up a different hobby?
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14. Lehigh
LoL, not Lake Forest?
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3. Michigan - Relieved to get the win but thought they team could've played better, especially with the pass offense and pass defense (too many 3rd and long conversions allowed)
4. Penn State - Next week they finally play a top 25 team. I'll give them their due if they win in Iowa City.
5. Minnesota - Finally dominated a worse team. We'll see if they can get to 8-0....
6. Michigan State - I thought they might be more competitive, but their defense got burned after forcing the early turnovers.
7. Iowa - I thought they were better before this weekend, but they didn't look that great on either side, and Michigan's offense simply couldn't blow it open.
I'm curious about how you arrived at this. It looks entirely possible to me either that Michigan is our third best team or that Iowa is out seventh best team, but I can't agree with both simultaneously. The two teams looked pretty even to me on Saturday. Michigan had the two missed FG's, but they won the turnover battle 4-1. Each team had ~260 yards of offense.
IMHO, if Michigan is #3 then Iowa has to be #4 and if Iowa is #7 then Michigan has to be #6. Like I said, I'm not questioning Michigan at #3 or Iowa at #7, I'm questioning the combination.
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LoL, not Lake Forest?
Nah. NU is Chicago's Big Ten team already.
PSU needs a credible rival, so I came up with Lehigh. Could always go with Columbia. New York market and all that.
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I'm questioning the combination.
That one struck me as odd too.
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That one struck me as odd too.
So far we have 16 voters. Twelve have Iowa one spot behind Michigan. The others:
- Brutus has Michigan #4 and Iowa #6 with MSU in between.
- @bayareabadger has Michigan #4 and Iowa #6 with MSU in between.
- Nubbz has Michigan #5 and Iowa #7 with MSU in between.
- @MichiFan87 has Michigan #3 and Iowa #7 with PSU, MN, and MSU in between.
I can see the logic of putting MSU between Michigan and Iowa because all three look similar to me but I don't get the logic of having three teams in between two that I see as pretty equal.
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- Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1 - I thought the Buckeyes would win, I didn't think they would do that.
- Wisconsin - 2,2,2,2,4,3 - State of Kent is terrible!
- Penn State - 3,3,3,3,3,4 - Wow!
- Michigan - 5,5,4,4,2,2 - Nice win but I honestly considered leaving them behind Iowa. I didn't see a lot of separation between those two teams.
- Iowa - 4,4,5,6,5,6 - If only they had just a little bit of offense.
- Michigan State - 6,6,7,7,7,9 - Given what is behind them, I don't see any shame in losing in Columbus by 24.
- Northwestern - 7,9,9,10,9,7 - Close again.
- Nebraska - 9,8,6,9,6,8 - It was close but they got the win.
- Minnesota - 10,10,10,8,13,10 - Undefeated! This week's game is HUGE because it is their biggest test before hosting PSU at which point they could be 8-0.
- Maryland - 8,7,8,5,8,11 - Playing Rutgers makes everybody look good. We'll see how they do with Purdue and Indiana the next two weeks. I hate to move them down for a win, but Nebraska and Minnesota looked better to me.
- Indiana - 11,11,11,13,12,12 - They need wins to keep bowl dreams alive.
- Purdue - 12,12,12,11,10,5 - Bowl eligibility is in serious jeopardy.
- Illinois - 13,13,13,12,11,13 - Ugh.
- Rutgers - 14,14,14,14,14,14 - Still Rutgers.
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So far we have 16 voters. Twelve have Iowa one spot behind Michigan. The others:
- Brutus has Michigan #4 and Iowa #6 with MSU in between.
- @bayareabadger has Michigan #4 and Iowa #6 with MSU in between.
- Nubbz has Michigan #5 and Iowa #7 with MSU in between.
- @MichiFan87 has Michigan #3 and Iowa #7 with PSU, MN, and MSU in between.
I can see the logic of putting MSU between Michigan and Iowa because all three look similar to me but I don't get the logic of having three teams in between two that I see as pretty equal.
My biggest trouble with ranking those two would be which would win on a neutral field. Iowa looked like it could do it, but so did Michigan. So, I had to choose Michigan as being higher, by a nose. I think Iowa wins, in Iowa City.
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Wisconsin - 2,2,2,2,4,3 - Close win, but Northwestern will do that to better teams.
That, or State of Kent not being close. Heh.
And yes, to your point, NU is generally a wrench in the spokes for teams.
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My biggest trouble with ranking those two would be which would win on a neutral field. Iowa looked like it could do it, but so did Michigan. So, I had to choose Michigan as being higher, by a nose. I think Iowa wins, in Iowa City.
Agreed.
That, or State of Kent not being close. Heh.
And yes, to your point, NU is generally a wrench in the spokes for teams.
Oops, forgot to update from last week because I just didn't have anything to say about Kent. Fixed.
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Wolverines trail MSU and Iowa in SRS, but lead in FPI. Haven't seen SP+ yet.
SP+
2. Ohio State
6. Wisconsin
7. Penn State
17. Michigan
18. Michigan State
21. Iowa
26. Minnesota
28. Indiana
36. Maryland
39. Nebraska
70. Northwestern
71. Illinois
72. Purdue
98. Rutgers
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Results posted, votes through @medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547) , 17 voters.
Changes this week:
- Michigan and Michigan State are each up one spot
- Iowa is down two spots
- Nebraska is up one spot
- Maryland is up two spots
- Northwestern is down three spots
It feels like we overreacted to both the IA/M and the UNL/NU results. In both cases those teams were ranked close to each other before the game and in both cases the home team won by one score.
We have a pretty interesting slate of games this weekend with a number of the games between teams that are adjacent or at least within four spots. This weekend's games:
- #1 Ohio State is off
- #2 Wisconsin v #5 Michigan State
- #3 Penn State at #6 Iowa
- #4 Michigan at #13 Illinois
- #7 Minnesota v #8 Nebraska
- #9 Maryland at #12 Purdue
- #10 Indiana v #14 Rutgers
- #11 Northwestern is off
The five games in bold are between teams ranked within four spots of each other.
Several teams are in near must-win situations wrt going bowling this year:
#9 Maryland: The Terps are 3-2 so they only need three more wins but the balance of their schedule includes Michigan, @tOSU, and @MSU so a win here is almost vital.
#10 Indiana: The Hoosiers are also 3-2 so they also need three more wins. Also like Maryland, they have a number of games left that they are very unlikely to win. I can't see a path to a bowl game for the Hoosiers that includes losing to Rutgers.
#12 Purdue: The Boilermakers have an easier remaining schedule than the Terps and Hoosiers but they also only have one win so they need to find five more. That is going to be VERY tricky if they don't get one of them against Maryland this weekend.
Finally, this is Minnesota's greatest challenge before hosting Penn State on November 9. If they manage to beat the Cornhuskers this weekend, they should win at Rutgers next weekend then go home and beat Maryland. After that they have a week off, then host Penn State on 11/9. Could you imagine Gameday in Minneapolis for a Gophers/Nittany Lions tilt where both teams are 8-0?
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Could you imagine Gameday in Minneapolis for a Gophers/Nittany Lions tilt where both teams are 8-0?
Possibly. It depends on where Florida/Georgia are sitting, come that day.
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Possibly. It depends on where Florida/Georgia are sitting, come that day.
Good news:
WLOCP is actually a week earlier, 11/2.
Bad news:
LSU @ Bama is the same day, 11/9.
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Good news:
WLOCP is actually a week earlier, 11/2.
Bad news:
LSU @ Bama is the same day, 11/9.
The only way I could actually see Gameday going to Minneapolis for the PSU/MN game is if:
- Minnesota wins out to that game, and
- Penn State wins out to that game (or loses no more than one), and
- LSU loses to Florida this weekend, and
- LSU loses to Auburn on 10/26.
If all of those things happened then the Bama/LSU game wouldn't really be a big deal while PSU/MN theoretically would.
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Good news:
WLOCP is actually a week earlier, 11/2.
Bad news:
LSU @ Bama is the same day, 11/9.
There you have my brain fart of the day.
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#12 Purdue: The Boilermakers have an easier remaining schedule than the Terps and Hoosiers but they also only have one win so they need to find five more. That is going to be VERY tricky if they don't get one of them against Maryland this weekend.
Yep. Do or die for the Boilers this week. It'll be hard enough to get 5 more wins even if EVERYTHING goes our way. But if we lose to Maryland, then we need 5 of the remaining six with road trips to both Iowa and Wisconsin. That's getting into <<<<1% probability territory IMHO.
Heck, FPI (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/2509/purdue-boilermakers) has Illinois as the only remaining game Purdue will be favored in.
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SP+
1. OSU (2) (Though almost a virtual tie with Bammer for #1)
2. Wiscy (6)
3. PSU (7) (Just a tick behind Wiscy, and both ahead of Clemson)
4. Michigan (17)
5. MSU (18)
6. Iowa (21)
7. Minnesota (26)
8. Indiana (28)(!)
9. Maryland (36)
10. Nebraska (39)
11. Northwestern (70)
12. Illinois (71)
13. Purdue (72)
14. Rutgers (98)
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Yep. Do or die for the Boilers this week. It'll be hard enough to get 5 more wins even if EVERYTHING goes our way. But if we lose to Maryland, then we need 5 of the remaining six with road trips to both Iowa and Wisconsin. That's getting into <<<<1% probability territory IMHO.
Heck, FPI (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/2509/purdue-boilermakers) has Illinois as the only remaining game Purdue will be favored in.
Not sure how FPI would rank it, but I figured the rough ranking of most likely wins for Purdue is:
- vs ILL
- vs UMD
- vs IU
- vs UNL
- @ NU
- @ IA
- @ UW
Agreed, that is tough no matter what and with a loss on Saturday it is basically over.
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Here they are... Oddly it doesn't like Nebraska much...
vs Maryland 35.3%
@ #17 Iowa 8.6%
vs Illinois 68.5%
vs Nebraska 41.3%
@ Northwestern 31.3%
@ #8 Wisconsin 4.2%
vs Indiana 37.2%
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1) Ohio State: until someone proves differently.
2) Wisconsin: because it still has the better win to date, and it's shaky win was better than Penn State's shaky win.
3) Penn State: solid conference win, even if a weak opponent.
4) Michigan: big win; still has better athletes than most of the conference.
5) Iowa: definitely not a pushover.
6) Michigan State: expected loss for a team in this position.
7) Minnesota: finally a solid win; still unbeaten.
9) Nebraska: wins count.
8) Northwestern: good effort; weak offense.
10) Maryland: still way better than Rutgers.
11) Indiana: idle.
12) Purdue: bad.
13) Illinois: really bad.
14) Rutgers: gross.
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Updated Massey composite computer ranking, with 94 rankings (last week in parenthesis)
- OHIO STATE (1)
- Alabama (2)
- Clemson (4)
- LSU (6)
- WISCONSIN (9)
- Auburn (3)
- PENN STATE (7)
- Georgia (5)
- Oklahoma (8)
- Florida (14)
- Oregon (13)
- Notre Dame (10)
- Texas (15)
- Baylor (-)
- IOWA (12)
- MICHIGAN (-)
- SMU (19)
- Missouri (20)
- MICHIGAN STATE (16)
- Cincinnati (25)
- Boise State (18)
- Memphis (-)
- Washington (11)
- Arizona State (22)
- Wake Forest (24)
- 33. Minnesota (38)
- 52. Maryland (61)
- 55. Nebraska (52)
- 60. Indiana (55)
- 80. Northwestern (78)
- 91. Purdue (86)
- 108. Illinois (93)
- 121. Rutgers (118)
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FWIW:
I added in @SFBadger96 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=51) 's vote. I am not posting updated results because his vote didn't change any of the rankings but it will be included in the week-6 totals going forward.