CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Temp430 on September 30, 2019, 09:27:56 AM
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Michigan is about a five point favorite at home over the Hawkeyes which is a bit mystifying. Iowa has a good defense and we all saw what a good defense can do to the Wolverines in Madison. Michigan struggled at times in Week 1 against Middle Tennessee, a team Iowa shellacked last Saturday.
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Iowa hits. Hard. Hardest hitting team I've ever seen, year after year. Those boys bring it on defense, ever single play. This will be a tough game for both teams. Soreness will be the thing on Sunday.
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Iowa's defense is a paper tiger so far this season. The secondary is a MASH unit, the linebackers are merely OK, the DL is getting some pressure but not much for sacks or TFL. Due to injuries, DC Phil Parker has been relying heavily on the tried-and-true soft zone coverage / bend don't break.
Iowa's defense and Wisconsin's defense are night and day different. Iowa forces you to execute; Wisconsin doesn't allow you to execute.
On offense, Iowa has shown life against scrubs, but struggled against the only real defense they've seen (and yes, ISU does have a good defense). I don't have much faith they'll execute at an acceptable level against Michigan's defense.
We'll see what happens, but I'm leaning blue on this one.
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The Hawkeyes have won 7 of the last 11 in this series, dating back to 2002, including 5 of the last 6, starting in 2009.
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I think 5 points at home is a fair betting line
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This will be a good measuring stick for both teams.
This Iowa offensive line has the potential to be the best of the entire KF era, or at least the best since 2002. They get Alaric Jackson back at LT this week, who will be probably a 2nd round draft pick in the 2020 draft, and they've got a potential top 10 draft pick in Tristan Wirfs at RT. Linderbaum will be in the conversation for all B1G freshmen at center, and they have a ton of depth at both RG/LG.
On the other side of the LOS, Iowa has AJ Epenesa, who's seen double teams in every game so far because he's a freak athlete. He will also potentially be a top 10 draft pick. Cedrick Lattimore is playing the best football of his career at DT, and Davyion Nixon is also playing really well at DT. Gholston is a guy the coaches like a lot, but hasn't really flashed yet IMO. The question on DL is depth beyond the 4 starters, they haven't really needed to try the backups yet, but will need them at some point in the season. On defense, the big question is going to be if any of the previously injured guys in the secondary will be back this week - Matt Hankins is the one they really need back that would give them much more flexibility in the secondary.
Based on watching the Wisconsin game, I think Michigan is going to have a tough time winning at the LOS on both sides of the ball. If that ends up being the case, Iowa should be in it and have a shot to win the game. I'm curious to see, on the Michigan defensive side, how much of that Wisconsin game was poor scheme vs. personnel issues defensively. I would imagine Brian Ferentz will probably watch much of that Wisconsin/Michigan game to see where Michigan really struggled and test some of those same weak points this week. I think that's the big question that will determine who wins this one.
What Iowa really needs in this game is accuracy from Nate Stanley. In the Iowa State game, Iowa did a much better job of controlling the LOS in 2019 then they did in 2018, but they took too many FG's and didn't convert TD's. If Iowa could have converted a few of the those FG's into TD's, they could have easily scored 25-30 points and that would have been a much more comfortable win. In many cases, it was because Nate missed a pass here or there that could have kept a drive moving. This past week was one of the best games I can remember from Stanley in terms of his passes being on target, that will need to carry over to this week for Iowa to win the game in Ann Arbor.
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I think 5 points at home is a fair betting line
I concur. I would lean to giving the points and taking Blue if I had to.
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take Iowa. Michigan cannot seem to beat them in any game that matters. Harbaugh looks lost and checked out to me. The guy isn't the same game from the 49ers and Stanford. He's on meds and he's a completely different person. He was a great coach when he was an odd, crazy, psychotic asshole. Now he's just a soft spaced out weirdo climbing trees, taking his team on European vacations, and misquoting great philosophers and writers.
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For once, it's Iowa's defense I'm more concerned about. Iowa has a real, live passing game now and has some legit B1G-quality receivers in Brandon Smith, Tyrone Tracy, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette. Wieting and Beyer are capable TEs that aren't quite on the same level as Hock and Fant were, but both of them very well could hear their name called in a future NFL draft weekend. The running game hasn't exploded yet, but it is getting better, and true freshman Tyler Goodson already seems to be showing signs that he's more than good enough to play on Sundays. And with Alaric Jackson back, the OL should be able to both buy Stanley some time to throw, and create some holes for the running game.
The defense is competent and does a good job of limiting the big plays, but the secondary is still on the mend and the LB squad is still pretty green. The DL is high-quality, but can ill-afford injuries or other mishaps. Phil Parker may want to dial up a few extra blitzes this Saturday and put some pressure on Patterson, because if he gets time to throw, the DB's are going to be torched because Iowa hasn't seen receivers anywhere near this talented yet. Michigan isn't an elite defensive team, but it's still a sound one, and is good enough to keep Iowa out of the end zone on a consistent basis. For comparison, Iowa seems to be slightly better at throwing the ball than Wisconsin, but is clearly inferior at running the ball. Despite this, Iowa is still a run-first team and I fully expect Michigan to stack the box with 8 guys consistently and dare Iowa to throw. Stanley is a good QB and rarely makes mistakes, but also makes relatively few big plays. I think the Wolverines will be patient and wait for that one big mistake and try to cash in.
Really and truly, I think the keys to victory are going to be very similar for both teams. Limit the penalties, limit the turnovers, and use good defense to set up good field position. Michael Sleep-Dalton is a welcome addition to Iowa and has shown himself a plenty competent punter, so I expect lots of long fields for both teams (I have no idea how good Michigan's punter is). It may come down to a late kick. First to 25 probably wins.
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This will be my noon game,Auburn vs FLA will be @ 3:30,MSU vs tOSU at 7:30.Beer,some buddies and football.Hope life doesn't bother me next saturday
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take Iowa. Michigan cannot seem to beat them in any game that matters. Harbaugh looks lost and checked out to me. The guy isn't the same game from the 49ers and Stanford. He's on meds and he's a completely different person. He was a great coach when he was an odd, crazy, psychotic asshole. Now he's just a soft spaced out weirdo climbing trees, taking his team on European vacations, and misquoting great philosophers and writers.
C'mon Mdot put some steel in your spine
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(https://i5.walmartimages.com/asr/1f7b78d8-c251-4f21-ab9c-4bc5824690c1_1.c7d11be42cf788cc01af4ff4e6e3752f.jpeg)
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I concur. I would lean to giving the points and taking Blue if I had to.
I'm leaning the other way - taking Iowa and the points
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Michigan 31
Iowa 17
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do you feel Wisconsin is just that good, or Michigan matches up much better with Iowa, or Michigan will play much better after a couple weeks and at home?
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Is that Steel reserve any good?
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do you feel Wisconsin is just that good, or Michigan matches up much better with Iowa, or Michigan will play much better after a couple weeks and at home?
I have a hard time seeing Iowa losing by multiple scores. I also have a hard time seeing Michigan losing by multiple scores. Unless one team is uncharacteristically sloppy, it's going to be a tight one and I won't be one bit surprised if it's settled by a late FG attempt.
31 points to Michigan is a little generous... the two teams combined might not score much more than that.
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Is that Steel reserve any good?
yes sir
tastes a little like Bud Fat, with more alcohol content
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31 points to Michigan is a little generous... the two teams combined might not score much more than that.
way too generous. Michigan hung 52 up on Rutgers. BFD. Rutgers sucks.
Michigan won't score more than 21 on Iowa. And they'll be lucky to even get to 21. First one to 17 wins.
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I will state it more simply. Iowa has a better defense than Michigan. Iowa has an adequate offense, which I believe is in equipoise with Michigan.
I don't think Iowa has had a turnover this year. Certainly, no interceptions. Michigan has turned it over.
If it comes down to the kicking game . . . I don't think Iowa has had a kicking game this good since 1985 with Reggie Roby and Rob Houghtlin. We know how that Michigan-Iowa game turned out. A superior kicking game probably makes about 3-5 points difference. It was the difference between a win and a loss for Iowa, over Iowa State.
Still, this is a dangerous game. Michigan is looking for a big win, something that has proven elusive. And, unlike the game they played against the Badgers, this one is at home.
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Michigan 31
Iowa 17
You read my mind
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do you feel Wisconsin is just that good, or Michigan matches up much better with Iowa, or Michigan will play much better after a couple weeks and at home?
Michigan is gradually getting over some injuries. Playing at home is a thousand times better than Camp Randal or Kinnick for that matter. Looking ahead, I'd hate to be Penn State playing a night game in Kinnick the following week no matter if Iowa wins or loses to Michigan.
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I will state it more simply. Iowa has a better defense than Michigan. Iowa has an adequate offense, which I believe is in equipoise with Michigan.
I don't think Iowa has had a turnover this year. Certainly, no interceptions. Michigan has turned it over.
If it comes down to the kicking game . . . I don't think Iowa has had a kicking game this good since 1985 with Reggie Roby and Rob Houghtlin. We know how that Michigan-Iowa game turned out. A superior kicking game probably makes about 3-5 points difference. It was the difference between a win and a loss for Iowa, over Iowa State.
Still, this is a dangerous game. Michigan is looking for a big win, something that has proven elusive. And, unlike the game they played against the Badgers, this one is at home.
Some disagreements:
1) I don't believe Iowa has a better defense than Michigan. At least not yet.
2) Iowa has one turnover (Brady Ross fumble vs Miami, OH)
3) Reggie Roby graduated in 1982
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Iowa might have a better defense then Michigan, but it would need to be a completely healthy defense. Not one down 3 of it's top 5 corners, including their best overall corner (IMO) in Hankins.
Given the current state of Iowa's defensive backfield, my biggest concern in this game is UM coming out in a lot of 3/4 WR sets, because Iowa just doesn't have the healthy bodies this week to match up well with that, unless both Hankins/Brents magically get healthy.
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If this was in Iowa City I'd take Iowa. I think Michigan gets it done at home. I'm also suggesting by this that Wisky is that good.
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I feel the Hawks win a tight one because of better QB play.
That is the only place I see a clear advantage.
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Playing at home matters. But I think turnovers are a problem for Michigan. This strikes me as a very close game with the scoring in the teens. I think Iowa pulls it out because it wins the turnover battle.
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Iowa might have a better defense then Michigan, but it would need to be a completely healthy defense. Not one down 3 of it's top 5 corners, including their best overall corner (IMO) in Hankins.
Given the current state of Iowa's defensive backfield, my biggest concern in this game is UM coming out in a lot of 3/4 WR sets, because Iowa just doesn't have the healthy bodies this week to match up well with that, unless both Hankins/Brents magically get healthy.
I was at the Rutgers - Iowa game, and sat in the North End Zone. I was very impressed by Michael Ojemudia. By my eye he is in the Josh Jackson/Desmond King area in terms of cover. Hankins played most of that game, as well, but I didn't really notice. Rutgers was 10 of 27 passing for 47 yards. All of Iowa's cover people did well. Ojemudia really impressed me.
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Iowa 27, Michigan 20
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I believe Phil Parker is a genius when it comes to coaching DB's but I am a little worried that Iowa's secondary is going to get torched in this game.
4 of the top 6 DB's are either out or just coming back from injuries. This limits the schemes Iowa can play and forces Parker to play some untested freshmen. CB DJ Johnson and safety Jack Koerner both look vulnerable if they are forced to play a lot.
Iowa had some success last year with the 4-2-5 alignment, but Iowa does not have enough DB's to play it, so odds are they will be playing a traditional 4-3 a lot on Saturday. A good passing team.could exploit this.
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Some disagreements:
1) I don't believe Iowa has a better defense than Michigan. At least not yet.
2) Iowa has one turnover (Brady Ross fumble vs Miami, OH)
3) Reggie Roby graduated in 1982
I would also add that probably the year 2000 when Jason Baker was the punter and Nate Kaeting was the PK may have been the best combos of kickers that Iowa has ever had. Both went on to NFL sucess.
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Some disagreements:
1) I don't believe Iowa has a better defense than Michigan. At least not yet.
I had said before the season and still believe Ms "D" is not that special.If the Wolverines are going to win it'll have to be thru the air.A quick peek has Iowa's defense ranked no 5 Nationally and Ms at 22 https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22 (https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22).Four of the Top Ten Defenses in the Country(statistically) are in the BIG.UW,tOSU,Iowa,MSU.Penn St's is @ 14
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I had said before the season and still believe Ms "D" is not that special.If the Wolverines are going to win it'll have to be thru the air.A quick peek has Iowa's defense ranked no 5 Nationally and Ms at 22 https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22 (https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22).Four of the Top Ten Defenses in the Country(statistically) are in the BIG.UW,tOSU,Iowa,MSU.Penn St's is @ 14
Total defense is a not good number. It’s too pace reliant.
If we just change to yards per play, Michigan is 21st and Iowa is 37th. (FEI ratings weirdly match that)
By SP+, UM is 6th, Iowa 22nd. By points per drive, Iowa is 6th, Michigan 34th.
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Iowa had some success last year with the 4-2-5 alignment, but Iowa does not have enough DB's to play it, so odds are they will be playing a traditional 4-3 a lot on Saturday. A good passing team.could exploit this.
Shea hasn't proven to be a good passing team to this point
I like Iowa with the "W"
because Stanley is better than PAtterson
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It is kind of surprising to see Iowa's defense ranked so high in total yards. It has typically played a bend-don't-break philosophy where they give up a lot of yards between the 20's but don't allow a lot of big plays or TD's.
So usually Iowa will end up in the top 20 in scoring defense but not for total yards.
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Iowa gave up a bunch of nothing to MTSU and Rutgers, gave up 2 big plays to ISU (granted this is with a depleted secondary) and let Miami OH dink-and-dunk on them.
Iowa has a good defense, but for some reason it's really been struggling with making plays behind the LOS. It's been good at keeping stuff in front of them and putting pressure on the QB, but those hurries better start translating to sacks and interceptions because even a blind squirrel is going to find a few nuts every now and then.
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A.J. EPENESA isn't getting sacks?
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Nope - he's been getting double-teamed a lot as a lot of teams are game-planning around him specifically.
Maybe he'll erupt this weekend on a bigger stage.
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gee, my neighbors thought for sure he would lead the nation in sacks by a wide margin and then easily become the #1 pick in the NFL draft
I'm rooting for him to have 4 or 5 sacks this Saturday
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I would expect Michigan to double Epenesa, especially since it doesn't sound the rest of the DL is anything special. If Michigan can hold up well in pass protection, Patterson should be able to have a good game like he did against Rutgers. Michigan will still run it enough to keep the LBs honest.
Defensively it sounds like Michigan matches up rather well, too. Apparently Iowa's interior OL isn't that great either, which mitigates Michigan's lack of DT depth. Iowa's RBs are decent but not great, so I think the defense can contain that pretty well. I'm primarily concerned about giving up any big pass plays.
Otherwise, the biggest concern is turnovers. Obviously, Michigan has had some bad ones before last week and also hasn't really been able to force many this year.
It should be a close game. I'll say Michigan wins 27-23.
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Total defense is a not good number. It’s too pace reliant.
If we just change to yards per play, Michigan is 21st and Iowa is 37th. (FEI ratings weirdly match that)
By SP+, UM is 6th, Iowa 22nd. By points per drive, Iowa is 6th, Michigan 34th.
Well I looked those up on a whim but usually go by the eye test and your last stat can be pretty telling.But my view was more in line with the Hawks Offense facing that marginal defense,nothing like Ms 3 previous seasons.Not real sure of Iowas O-Line however
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Iowa has a good defense, but for some reason it's really been struggling with making plays behind the LOS. It's been good at keeping stuff in front of them . . .
And this is typical for a Phil Parker Iowa defense.
A.J. EPENESA isn't getting sacks?
Perhaps he is saving himself for the NFL.
It should be a close game. I'll say Michigan wins 27-23.
It would be a negative world without at least some optimism for Michigan, from a Michigander.
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Well I looked those up on a whim but usually go by the eye test and your last stat can be pretty telling.But my view was more in line with the Hawks Offense facing that marginal defense,nothing like Ms 3 previous seasons.Not real sure of Iowas O-Line however
The Iowa O-Line is very deep, and has been very good this year. In fact its been a sore point for me for at least the past 2-3 years but this year the O-Line is a marvel.
Alaric Jackson was expected to be a 1st round pick at left tackle is back after 4-weeks after a knee strain in the Rutgers game. The O-Line seemed just as good without him. He won't be a 1st rounder now. I am guessing Iowa won't work Jackson in there a lot.
Excluding tight ends I think about 8-players are getting regular time on the O-Line. If you attend in person, you will see what you can't see very well on television. Tristan Wirfs is one of the manliest, strongest, biggest men I have seen in a football uniform. He has mostly played left tackle after Alaric Jackson was injured, but was the starting right tackle. He was thought to be a first rounder coming into the season and has done everything to make that appear spot-on.
The O-Line is best at pass protection, but has been giving the RBs some space this season that hasn't been there the past two or three years.
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well, if this post regarding the O-line is spot on, Michigan is in a heap of trouble and my prediction should come true
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Iowa's interior OL is a step down from the OT's, but I'm not worried about the O-line. At. All.
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Iowa's interior OL is a step down from the OT's, but I'm not worried about the O-line. At. All.
Michigan held Iowa to 1 yard net rushing.
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Michigan held Iowa to 1 yard net rushing.
Had a funeral to attend to today, and didn't see it, but I understand Michigan blew apart Iowa's O-Line. And Iowa caught a turnover bug.
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I concur. I would lean to giving the points and taking Blue if I had to.
I figured there would be more offense.
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Michigan held Iowa to 1 yard net rushing.
I thought Iowa ran the ball OK; not sure why they completely abandoned it in the second half.
8 sacks is obviously unacceptable, and everyone gets to share some blame there. A couple on the OL, a couple on the RB's, a couple on Stanley holding the ball too long.
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The Iowa O-Line is very deep, and has been very good this year. In fact its been a sore point for me for at least the past 2-3 years but this year the O-Line is a marvel.
Alaric Jackson was expected to be a 1st round pick at left tackle is back after 4-weeks after a knee strain in the Rutgers game. The O-Line seemed just as good without him. He won't be a 1st rounder now. I am guessing Iowa won't work Jackson in there a lot.
Excluding tight ends I think about 8-players are getting regular time on the O-Line. If you attend in person, you will see what you can't see very well on television. Tristan Wirfs is one of the manliest, strongest, biggest men I have seen in a football uniform. He has mostly played left tackle after Alaric Jackson was injured, but was the starting right tackle. He was thought to be a first rounder coming into the season and has done everything to make that appear spot-on.
The O-Line is best at pass protection, but has been giving the RBs some space this season that hasn't been there the past two or three years.
this post unfortunately was not spot on
not a knock on Hawkinole
but, a knock on the O-line
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Michigan’s D will be dangerous if they continue to get this kind of production out of Cam McGrone at LB and Dax Hill at S/NB. When Josh Ross comes back, replace Glasgow with Ross and that LB crew will be legit af. It could really go to the next level if one of the frosh- Chris Hinton or Mazi Smith could kick it up a notch and start giving Michigan some production at DT.
Unfortunately the season is a lost cause because that offense is so incredibly shitty.
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Iowa's failure to score points is partially on poor offensive game planning, and partially on Michigan's defense. It's not like Iowa wasn't able to move the ball at all - it did a pretty good job of moving between the 20s, but Michigan's defense clamped down once Iowa's offense got to M's 30.
Iowa's offense also seemed out of sync for much of the game - Alaric Jackson finally returned, but that might not have been necessarily a good thing because it might have messed up the OL chemistry. I know Michigan's defense is good, but Iowa shot itself in the foot way too many times with silly penalties and poor decisions. I used to think the pass protection was a strength, but it's not nearly as strong as I thought it was - even when I thought it was obvious Michigan was going to blitz, Iowa still failed to pick it up a good chunk of the time.
It was a disappointing performance, but I do think a lot of that was lack of mental preparation. Much of that can be corrected this week.