CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: MaximumSam on September 28, 2019, 07:14:11 AM
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Woke up ready for a great day. The kids are at grandma's. No soccer. Football all day. Some sort of football party downtown for the Buckeye game. Those are always a mixed bag. At any football party, I am watching football. I don't want to small talk, or talk about work, or your family, or my family. I imagine people think I'm quite the hermit at those things. Still, there's booze and football and I'll partake.
Noon
Northwester at Wiscy, ABC
Middle Tennessee at Iowa, ESPN2
Rutgers at Michigan, BTN
3:30
Indiana at MSU, BTN
Minny at Purdue, ESPN2
7:30
OSU at Nebraska, ABC
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I'm 0-3 in my football pool picks after last night. That's a bloodbath. I picked Michigan to win today. It will be interesting to see how they come out after the beatdown. It will also be interesting to see how Wisconsin comes out, after administering said beatdown.
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Woke up ready for a great day. The kids are at grandma's. No soccer. Football all day. Some sort of football party downtown for the Buckeye game. Those are always a mixed bag. At any football party, I am watching football. I don't want to small talk, or talk about work, or your family, or my family. I imagine people think I'm quite the hermit at those things. Still, there's booze and football and I'll partake.
Enjoy your day Max. You deserve it.
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Thanks buddy!
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I'm making mussels with toasts, onion soup and steak with fries for tonight. Butcher opens at 9AM. I'm sure I can get some good choices. Leaning toward flat iron, if they have it.
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Run was humid this am. Stupid South. Have a more open morning than usual, farmers market trip should happen.
Random Sat AM question: if you were given the chance to watch your teams game from other angles, either the sky cam madden view, All-22 or maybe that angled overhead cam, would you use it and which would you prefer? Assume it has the same or similar commentary/replays/graphics.
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In Charlotte for the weekend for my friends' baby shower (the friend who moved from San Diego at the beginning of this year). He's a Boilermaker, and the couple who joined at the TCU game two weeks ago flew down here too.
Going that after the shower is over, we can find a sports bar and watch the minny game.
Who tf makes a couples baby shower? When did that become a thing?
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I'm making mussels with toasts, onion soup and steak with fries for tonight. Butcher opens at 9AM. I'm sure I can get some good choices. Leaning toward flat iron, if they have it.
I like flat iron. Great cut. Beautiful flavor and very tender. Good choice!
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Who tf makes a couples baby shower? When did that become a thing?
News to me, and if I were invited to one, I wouldn't go. I'd answer "NO" before the question was done.
Get off my lawn.
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Run was humid this am. Stupid South. Have a more open morning than usual, farmers market trip should happen.
Random Sat AM question: if you were given the chance to watch your teams game from other angles, either the sky cam madden view, All-22 or maybe that angled overhead cam, would you use it and which would you prefer? Assume it has the same or similar commentary/replays/graphics.
I dunno if I'd do it to actually watch a game in interested in. I wouldn't mind watching a college game from all 22 just to see the whole field.
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I like flat iron. Great cut. Beautiful flavor and very tender. Good choice!
I used to scoff at the cut because a butcher told me it was just a roast cut differently. That butcher was very wrong.
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I dunno if I'd do it to actually watch a game in interested in. I wouldn't mind watching a college game from all 22 just to see the whole field.
I think it would make me dizzy. Probably not interested in watching a game like that. Breaking down film? Sure. But I'm not a coach.
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News to me, and if I were invited to one, I wouldn't go. I'd answer "NO" before the question was done.
Get off my lawn.
Pretty sure all the husbands (including the father to be) plan to just hang out in another room and drink beer lol.
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This is the first weekend since August where we haven't had something going on Saturday. Feels kind of nice. At least until I get into the PE exam prep work.
Going over to a friend's house later on to make homemade ravioli. Some kind of pistachio filling. He's originally from a small town two hours south of Lincoln, and as such he's a giant Husker fan despite not getting any of his degrees from UNL. Will go over there later in the afternoon, so we can bounce back and forth between the Gophers and Michigan State, then the Huskers later on in the evening.
I don't know when guys at the showers became a thing. I was told to stay away from the ones involving my now-Mrs. However I was dragged to my brother's wedding shower, and after the introductions my dad and I discreetly went to the kitchen and washed dishes.
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Northwestern at Wiscy, ABC 41-13 UW
Middle Tennessee at Iowa, ESPN2 34-10 UI
Rutgers at Michigan, BTN 47-13 UM
3:30
Indiana at MSU, BTN 27-23 UI
Minny at Purdue, ESPN2 27-23 Purdue
7:30
OSU at Nebraska, ABC 37-13 OSU
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Pretty sure all the husbands (including the father to be) plan to just hang out in another room and drink beer lol.
Well ... that sounds OK then.
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Frost was just asked on Gameday "where is the team at in 'the process'?"
"Well, we are where we are. Somewhere between where we were and where we're gonna be."
Thanks, coach. :smiley_confused1:
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I think it would make me dizzy. Probably not interested in watching a game like that. Breaking down film? Sure. But I'm not a coach.
The dizzy part is fair. I don't know that one needs to be a coach, but I think if one watched a game in a different way, it would change the understanding of things. This is how I see each view, pluses and minuses.
Standard view
Good: We're used to it, stable-ish camera, you know how far the ball goes downfield on a given play.
Bad: On any given play, we have no real sense of what is happening for most of the defense and really a lot of the offense. The O-line is flattened, the back end is a mystery.
All-22
Good: You get a real sense of the space and what's going on all over. Like is no receiver is open, you know that. If every defender is in the box, you can see it rather than have to count.
Bad: You are very far away and lose some of the detail. It's actually not a moving camera, so that doesn't hurt, but you might have to squint, and it removes some of the character.
Skycam madden view (up and behind QB)
Good: You have a sense of how run games work. Like you see holes, you see defenders, you see some of what the QB sees on passing plays. It solves the O-line fattening.
Bad: The camera moves some and people don't like that. You also don't have a great sense of how far downfield the ball goes, which is a big annoyance.
Overhead
Good: You see things developing like plays. There's a sort of cleanness to it.
Bad: That cleanness costs a lot of details, as its just dots pushing other dots, plus the vertical is just lost.
Anyway, I'm always curious. I kinda like skycam, maybe all-22, but I'm a nerd.
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Landscape guys finishing up rear patio. Pavers looking good.
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Frost was just asked on Gameday "where is the team at in 'the process'?"
"Well, we are where we are. Somewhere between where we were and where we're gonna be."
Thanks, coach. :smiley_confused1:
Great coach speak. He's no Spurrier of course, but nobody else is anyway.
Dumb questions merit trite responses. Unless you are SOS.
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Probably missing out on most of the early games before heading up to my brother’s place for a USC @ Washington watch party he’s hosting with his USC Grad school buddies. Bringing cat and doggie treats so the pets aren’t left out of all the fun.
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News to me, and if I were invited to one, I wouldn't go. I'd answer "NO" before the question was done.
Get off my lawn.
😂😂. Amen.
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Frost was just asked on Gameday "where is the team at in 'the process'?"
"Well, we are where we are. Somewhere between where we were and where we're gonna be."
Thanks, coach. :smiley_confused1:
They get get these questions all the time,repeatedly.They are coaches not orators or talk show hosts
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In Charlotte for the weekend for my friends' baby shower (the friend who moved from San Diego at the beginning of this year). He's a Boilermaker, and the couple who joined at the TCU game two weeks ago flew down here too.
Going that after the shower is over, we can find a sports bar and watch the minny game.
Who tf makes a couples baby shower? When did that become a thing?
I'd mail a gift or check cross country,maybe fly when a child is born but for a little fru-fru,fluffy get together I dunno.Unless he's a fellow brewer and was breaking out his Oktoberfest
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I'd mail a gift or check cross country,maybe fly when a child is born but for a little fru-fru,fluffy get together I dunno.Unless he's a fellow brewer and was breaking out his Oktoberfest
Well, on the bright side we got to hang out with them for an extended time last night, will do so after the shower today, and possibly even tomorrow before we have to head to the airport. So we didn't fly out here *just* for the shower. That would be silly.
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Okay - you get your man card back ;D
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Maryland cancelled classes early for this
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Maryland cancelled classes early for this
They cancelled Friday classes? For what?
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Pretty sure all the husbands (including the father to be) plan to just hang out in another room and drink beer lol.
I told Mrs. 847 about this and she said the same thing I did, with an F bomb in between "no" and "way". Heh. At least I know I'm safe.
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I can't imagine going to a shower. My daughter's wouldn't allow it.
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Saw Penn St go up 14-0 the it was the nodded off.Clifford looked pretty good.Anyone else catch the game?
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Michigan with a competent drive
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Saw Penn St go up 14-0 the it was the nodded off.Clifford looked pretty good.Anyone else catch the game?
Yep. PSU whipped them all over the field all game
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Man Rutgers really wandered into a Wolverine nest.
The Maize and Blue are playing with their Hairballs on fire!
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What season is Wisconsin representing with those retros?
Not bad.
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Can’t get the Michigan game (up 14-0 anyway) so I’m mixing it up with the Iowa, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M-Arkansas games.
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Michigan needed that passing last week
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I don't have the slightest idea what Rutgers' QB saw there
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Should have fake pumped might have got some extra yds
Badgers 7
Wildcats 3 starting the 2nd
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I think that's a 1896 UW logo, not sure if those were actual uni looks.
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Iowa 24
MTSU 0.
Michigan just scored again UM 21 RU 0
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When can we expect the Wisconsin Effect to set in?
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More like the Army effect.
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Both @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) and I were high on TX A&M, top 5 coming into this season, expecting to see the better FSU teams of Jimbo’s time, but they just aren’t that good. Certainly not better than their #23 ranking. Arkansas opening up all kinds of running and passing lanes against a D that should be better. Aggie offense just going through the motions. Up 14-10 on the Razorbacks.
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Northwestern giving Wisconsin all they want
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Coan doesn't seem as comfortable today for whatever reason.
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NW looks almost serious.
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When can we expect the Wisconsin Effect to set in?
It doesn't apply when the other team is a bottom feeder from the MAC.
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Northwestern giving Wisconsin all they want
They almost always do. I wasn't buying UW -24. Not a chance in this series, which is tied 14-14 in the last 28 games.
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Arky 24. A&M 21
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Good now that the rube Bert is gone
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UW catches a break that guy had no impact on the return play,now a UW TD unbelievable
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A&M v Ark a nice game.
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What season is Wisconsin representing with those retros?
Not bad.
They look like Target employees
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Pitt losing to Delaware 13-10 in the 3rd
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Five players in the backfield. How does this happen?
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They almost always do. I wasn't buying UW -24. Not a chance in this series, which is tied 14-14 in the last 28 games.
I hate this effin series.
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Offense is on a mulligan but Wisconsin's defense is quality
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Toledo's tied up BYU @ 21 with 10min left and UW pix 6,that's it there.2nd defensive score of the day for UW
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I think that's a 1896 UW logo, not sure if those were actual uni looks.
Wisconsin's unis look pretty good, IMO.
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They look like Target employees
State Farm.
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Pitt losing to Delaware 14-10. Pitt has like 17 players injured today, including pickett, their starting RB and almost all of the DL. They could lose this.
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Wildcats TD
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Ugly game in Madison. No offense at all.
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Michigan 52-0,how fooking bad is Rutgers
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Wisconsin's unis look pretty good, IMO.
This is completely ignorant of me, but these unis are what I imagine UW-Lacrosse or UW-Whitewater looking like. In my mind, for whatever reason, all the D-III teams wear old-timey uniforms. There's no reason for me to think this, and I know it's 100% incorrect, but that's what in the ole noggin.
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Michigan 52-0,how fooking bad is
MAC bottom-feeder bad. End the experiment, NOW.
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Florida signs a home-and-home vs Utah, 2022-3. Pretty random.
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MAC bottom-feeder bad. End the experiment, NOW.
But RU gets 0.2% of the NYC market!!!!!!!!
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Wildcats TD
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I hate this effin series.
Ditto. Screw NU.
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Now Fitzgerald rightfully deserves to get PASTED BY FANS/MEDIA
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Toledo beats BYU
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TA&M goes in frony of the Pigs
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I like Wisconsin and Northwestern are both wearing throwbacks against each other.
Neither uni is like "ah wow", but since both teams are doing it works.
I wish OSU and TTUN would do it that way. Both wear normal or both wear alts. I hate seeing all these Highlights of UofM playing 13 red/black/white/gray teams.
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MAC bottom-feeder bad. End the experiment, NOW.
+1
Although, for the 1st time ever (well since being in the B1G) Rutgers has three teams ranked (Mens/Womans soccer and Field Hockey) I know on a football board (as it should be) how a school performs in football matters most. On top of football, my knock on Rutgers was not only do they suck in Revenue sports, they sucked at all sports. But today, they have three teams that don't "suck". (Let's see how they hold up in conference play.)
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That's how you start a game Tar Heels. 7-0
EDIT: And that's how you answer on D Tar Heels still up 7-0
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MSUs offense continues with unforced errors. Another missed FG, dropped TD with nobody around.
Could easily be 17-0 now
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Every single time we drop 8...
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Minnesota has playmakers now. I guess that’s something that changed overnight under Fleck? Three of their WRs have NFL size and speed in open space. Up 14-10 on Purdue and driving.
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ND Virginia has been a banger so far
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I'm still on the UNC Clemson game.
Sweeney calls time out, Refs blow the whistles. Carolina stands up and starts walking off, 3 Clemson players procede to gang slam the the UNC QB, with the Ref blowing a whistle in their face. Players smile and shrug, no penalty. UNC team and coaching staff justifiably flipping their sh!t.
EDIT: TD UNC 14-7
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Penix is really, really good
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This reminds me of the Northwestern game a couple years. Should have been up big early, let them hang around l, and then their offense woke up.
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So now we are down 4 starting OL? Should go well
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Tanner Morgan lighting it up for the Gophers.
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So now we are down 4 starting OL? Should go well
Yeah, that looked about right.
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Sindelar and Moore both gone for Purdue. So is Washington, our backup RG behind the already injured McCann. I hate to be a downer, but I'm pretty sure this season is toast.
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So now we are down 4 starting OL? Should go well
Gave Lewerke what he needs to make that sweet throw!
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Minnesota has playmakers now. I guess that’s something that changed overnight under Fleck? Three of their WRs have NFL size and speed in open space. Up 14-10 on Purdue and driving.
They've had good running backs prior to Fleck. But it's the WRs that have been shining. Tyler Johnson was a hometown kid that was gifted to Fleck when he got here.
Rashod Bateman was a kid out of Georgia that he offered in his junior year.....before his homestate Bulldogs came callling. He stuck with his commitment to Fleck.
Chris Autman-Bell out of Illinois had one scholarship offer....Western Michigan. And then Fleck came to Minnesota and offered CAB a scholly to the Gophers.
If anyone didn't know....Fleck played WR at Northern Illinois and had a brief, injury riddled career in the NFL. There's no reason to think that he's going to have trouble bringing in good looking receivers.
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Fleck can recruit WR. He's got cred there, having played it and made the NFL for a brief (correct??).
He's doing a good job recruiting to his system. I'll give him credit for that (and only that).
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Ceiling is 5 weeks for Purdue. I don't think we'll get there.
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Josiah Scott has played like crap today. Typical IU dink and dunk us to death. I hate this matchup every year.
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I swear, every game I watch looks scripted.
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I have never seen PI called on a less catchable pass.
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Hell of a game
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Wow Spartans might score to quickly here.Great Game.Run back & forth Sparty
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MSU gonna rely on their kicker
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Got to leave a little time or they could start playing some D
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MSU gonna rely on their kicker
Same guy we voted as the conferences best
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Clemson should drop NC was unranked
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Wow, Hoosiers.
That was the worst hook and ladder play that I have ever seen.
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Clemson should drop NC was unranked
I wonder if Mack Brown is second-guessing himself for going for 2 at the end.
I think a bad spot on a UNC 1st-down run at midfield, about midway in the 4th quarter, was a critical turning point. Looked like it should have been spotted close to the line to gain, for 2nd and inches. Instead, it was 2nd and a long 1 that UNC came about a foot short of converting on 4th down. Clemson took that possession and scored the go-ahead, ultimately game-winning TD.
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Same guy we voted as the conferences best
He was until 2 weeks ago.
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Wow. What a game. Would have been way more impactful had Indiana won.
But...the Brass Spittoon? What the lol?
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Memorial Stadium in Lincoln has had a very handsome renovation.
And the Sea of Red is impressive.
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Nightmare start for Miss St at Auburn. Down 21-0 only 6 minutes into first quarter; starting QB knocked out.
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Wow. What a game. Would have been way more impactful had Indiana won.
But...the Brass Spittoon? What the lol?
It's the Big Ten. Every week is a new stupid trophy, and I love all of them.
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Wonderful start for Nebraska.
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BUCKEYES
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That wasn't a DPI penalty in the end zone. No contact prior to the ball hitting the WR.
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Of course OSU picks off a pass and scores as I login to share this, but.....
great atmosphere for Nebraska, but this is a blowout win for the Buckeyes, right?
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7-0 Bucks
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I know ESPN is hyping this Neb-OSU game as a really big matchup but I just don’t see it being close by halftime. The Buckeyes have so much more talent than Nebraska can handle. 45-10 Ohio State wins this.
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PI huh?
Okay.
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It's the Big Ten. Every week is a new stupid trophy, and I love all of them.
If you were tasked with ranking them... ?
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I know ESPN is hyping this Neb-OSU game as a really big matchup but I just don’t see it being close by halftime. The Buckeyes have so much more talent than Nebraska can handle. 45-10 Ohio State wins this.
Yeah, definitely presenting the game with plenty of hoopla, but the same thing occurred to me.....all that hoopla is for a blowout.
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UCF up on UConn 28-0 still in the 1st
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Nightmare start for Miss St at Auburn. Down 21-0 only 6 minutes into first quarter; starting QB knocked out.
https://twitter.com/CFBgifer/status/1178090176511381514?s=19
And the MSU Bulldog took a wicked hit, to add insult to injury...
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UM it's 7-0 don't see any blow outs yet
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Long night for the Defense.
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Slick looking drive for the Bucks
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What I hate about these fast paced Offenses is not being able to get a replay every down.
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This series is straight out of Bernie Bierman's playbook
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Well sometimes it's better to be lucky than good
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With a pick like that there is no way UNL could won tonight.
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Time to bench Martinez?
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I know ESPN is hyping this Neb-OSU game as a really big matchup but I just don’t see it being close by halftime. The Buckeyes have so much more talent than Nebraska can handle. 45-10 Ohio State wins this.
wait...people actually thought this was going to be close? Lol. Nebraska is nowhere near ready to challenge Ohio State. They gave up 34 to Colorado and 38 to Illinois. How many points you think they'll give up to Ohio State? At least 45.
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Someone give Fowler some clean undies. JC
Secondary is very strong for OSU.
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Don't understand how Martinez's mechanics have changed to this year where he is airmailing balls.
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Tackling is overrated
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I wonder if Mack Brown is second-guessing himself for going for 2 at the end.
I think a bad spot on a UNC 1st-down run at midfield, about midway in the 4th quarter, was a critical turning point. Looked like it should have been spotted close to the line to gain, for 2nd and inches. Instead, it was 2nd and a long 1 that UNC came about a foot short of converting on 4th down. Clemson took that possession and scored the go-ahead, ultimately game-winning TD.
I hated Brown’s decision. With 1:14 left you aren’t guaranteeing yourself a win with the two but you are all but guaranteeing yourself a loss if you miss. The risk doesn’t match the reward. With 14 seconds left, sure do it. But with that much a time a FG beats you either way. Just kick the XP. Reminded me of Gundy’s decision to go for 2 against Oklahoma last year. Time on the clock matters.
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If Nebraska takes a knee from here on out at least the clock won't stop.
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What is Nebraska's largest margin of defeat under Frost?
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What is Nebraska's largest margin of defeat under Frost?
46 points. 56-10 loss to Michigan last year in Frost's 3rd game.
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Can LaVonte David come back and "tackle" Justin Fields?
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We made 18 dozen ravioli. They're tasty.
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well, that was rough
Corngrats to the Buckeyes
great performance on the road
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What do you think Nebraska needs to do? Is it mostly recruiting; or coaching staff?
I know the defense is weak. But this offense which is great seems not to care about ball security. Nebraska could in some ways be competitive; if they could hold onto the ball
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Without knowing the number, anyone with the under on UCLA-Arizona has to be feeling good.
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I keep missing osu v N games and keep missing...nothing.
I was just thinking the same about UCLA v AZ. Couple nice late night games.
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What do you think Nebraska needs to do? Is it mostly recruiting; or coaching staff?
I know the defense is weak. But this offense which is great seems not to care about ball security. Nebraska could in some ways be competitive; if they could hold onto the ball
Let's not kid around, osu is 3 to 4 TDs better than this team any day this season. The turnovers by Nebraska this past decade plus are incredible. Stats don't lie. They repeatedly put themselves in dire straits w/o regard to opponent.
Presently, they still have a big deficit on the roster. I'm more encouraged now than I've been in a very long time, , Riley was much of a zero as Callahan but I had no expectations of a competitive 4th qtr tonight. However, you go minus 3 in 17 minutes? Really. ESPN/ABC fooled a lot of people this week.
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I keep missing osu v N games and keep missing...nothing.
I was just thinking the same about UCLA v AZ. Couple nice late night games.
Come on back to the B12 my friend. At least we only beat y'all by 1 or 2 most years.... ;)
Anyway, sorry, just making light. I expected that one to be closer.
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I hated Brown’s decision. With 1:14 left you aren’t guaranteeing yourself a win with the two but you are all but guaranteeing yourself a loss if you miss. The risk doesn’t match the reward. With 14 seconds left, sure do it. But with that much a time a FG beats you either way. Just kick the XP. Reminded me of Gundy’s decision to go for 2 against Oklahoma last year. Time on the clock matters.
Agree, I find myself really pulling for Mack Brown this season and this was a heartbreaking loss. Tie the game up if you can, you've played pretty well against the defending national champs and you're at home. This was a baffling decision to me.
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I'll defend Mack Brown on the decision. Clemson crushed that play though. Like they had 18 guys on d.
Why agree to play more football against a superior opponent? They also likely felt good about the way their offense was going.
Clemson of course had 117 to break a tie.
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I'll defend Mack Brown on the decision. Clemson crushed that play though. Like they had 18 guys on d.
Why agree to play more football against a superior opponent? They also likely felt good about the way their offense was going.
Clemson of course had 117 to break a tie.
Why try for 2 when Clemson has 18 guys on D? :)
Bottom line-- You're at home. Get the XP, tie the game, and see what happens in OT.
Clemson already had 59 minutes to do more damage and failed. As the home team I like my chances to tie it up, hold them off, and put it into OT.
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I like the one play odds from the 3, with the ball, vs 2 series vs Clemson at the 25.
Makes me want to issue a grant to research OT games involving large dogs.
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Agree, I find myself really pulling for Mack Brown this season and this was a heartbreaking loss. Tie the game up if you can, you've played pretty well against the defending national champs and you're at home. This was a baffling decision to me.
If you play more football against a better team, your odds of losing go up. Their odds of finding themselves go up. You don't let the defending champs hang around.
Lets put it this way, if you told Mack he needs to win a coin toss and get one defensive stand before the game, he'd take it.
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On UNC: right call, wrong play. Don't let the result affect the opinion of the decision. The thinking behind going for 2 is sound.
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OSU should get some first place votes, but the polls take care of themselves if you keep winning. Not everyone will.
Does this "refocus" Clemson or is it a sign they have lost something?
I'd probably tie the game and try in OT. There is perhaps more credit in an OT loss than a one point RT loss (??). But he sent a sign he trusted his players.
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Bottom line-- You're at home. Get the XP, tie the game, and see what happens in OT.
Clemson already had 59 minutes to do more damage and failed. As the home team I like my chances to tie it up, hold them off, and put it into OT.
Agreed Clemson was not playing like the better team they were flat and uninspired all game and NC had the mojo.The longer it went on they felt uncertain and were getting exposed.They'd lose to plenty of top ten teams
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One close win against a mediocre (or worse) team doesn't mean you aren't still pretty good (OSU 2002).
In a few weeks, it might be forgotten as an event (largely).
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Pat Fitzgerald who I consider a good coach didn't help his team yesterday.The funny thing was this week he made a statement about the criticism coming from the fans/media.This Saturday he deserved it.You take those easy points when you can and go for two when the situation demands it.Specially the last time he went for 2 vs the Badgers.By not taking the XP he made it a 2 possession scoring problem instead of 1
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On UNC: right call, wrong play. Don't let the result affect the opinion of the decision. The thinking behind going for 2 is sound.
The result isn’t affecting my opinion. I was listening on the radio while driving and as soon as they said UNC was going for 2 I told my wife (who didn’t care), “Just kick the XP, too much time left.” It’s risk/reward. If UNC gets the 2 point conversion I don’t know what their win probability jumps up to but it isn’t as high as their loss probability if they fail. Like I mentioned earlier, getting the 2 doesn’t guarantee the win but missing it basically guarantees a loss because at that point you are pinning your hopes on an onside kick and we know the success rate for that isn’t very good.
The more time the opposing team has to get the ball back and kick a GW FG the worse it makes the decision. With 1:14 left that is still too much time. If a team is going to do that they should do it when the game is going to hinge on that one play. The win probability equals (or basically equals) the loss probability. WVU’s decision last year to go for 2 against Texas with 16 seconds left makes much more sense than UNC doing the same thing with 1:14 left.
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If you think the 2 points is good say 35% of the time (against a Clemson), it's not the money bet, and as you say, a minute plus left simply makes Clemson try and drive the field using 4th downs as needed to get in FG range, and you lose 24-22. The odds of that have to be around 50%, perhaps higher, Clemson under the gun and with four downs to use.
If you kick it, they still will try and drive but would punt on fourth down early in the series if it happened. Then maybe you even get the ball back with 15 seconds left.
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The result isn’t affecting my opinion. I was listening on the radio while driving and as soon as they said UNC was going for 2 I told my wife (who didn’t care), “Just kick the XP, too much time left.” It’s risk/reward. If UNC gets the 2 point conversion I don’t know what their win probability jumps up to but it isn’t as high as their loss probability if they fail. Like I mentioned earlier, getting the 2 doesn’t guarantee the win but missing it basically guarantees a loss because at that point you are pinning your hopes on an onside kick and we know the success rate for that isn’t very good.
The more time the opposing team has to get the ball back and kick a GW FG the worse it makes the decision. With 1:14 left that is still too much time. If a team is going to do that they should do it when the game is going to hinge on that one play. The win probability equals (or basically equals) the loss probability. WVU’s decision last year to go for 2 against Texas with 16 seconds left makes much more sense than UNC doing the same thing with 1:14 left.
That seems like short term thinking.
The goal is to win the game. The idea that after you miss, the probability is lower implies there's value in a better win probability with 1:00. But there probably isn't a ton unless you're talking about delaying things.
The time part is also immaterial. "The more time the opposing team has to get the ball back and kick a GW FG the worse it makes the decision." This doesn't make sense. If UNC is up 1, Clemson's last drive is exactly the same. It's just doing it under duress rather than in a more relaxed scenario.
UNC played to win, as a 27-point underdog. They said high-risk, high-reward is a better play. They didn't make it, and lost as was expected. Such is life.
(Wisconsin's mighty six-loss Rose Bowl team had a moment like that. Their defense had held 12-0 OSU to 211 yards. Their QB strung together a marvelous drive to get the TD to make it 14-13. They played safe, OSU O got 25 in 4 plays. A bad QB-led offense couldn't get more than 4 yards and it was done)
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https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi?request=1&score_differential=-1&quarter=4&minutes=1&seconds=14&field=team&yds_from_goal=25&down=1&yds_to_go=10
For what it’s worth if you go to this site and input Clemson getting the ball back, down 1, at their own 25, with 1:14 to go it still gives them over a 32% chance to win the game. So, again, it isn’t like UNC getting the 2 would seal the deal but missing the 2 really in effect sealed the loss. And it’s actually probably a little higher than that because the scenario generator is built for pro football where the clock doesn’t stop for 1st downs.
The limitations of the situations you can input make it impossible to input an onside kick scenario in there but we know onside kicks have a success rate of about 15% and then even if UNC recovers it they then have to get in FG range and make the kick.
So getting the conversion gives you about a 68% win probability but missing it puts your loss probability somewhere around 90%. That doesn’t make sense to me.
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In a final drive, Clemson trailing would have four downs immediately versus being tied. If they start at their 25, if tied, they punt if they are 3 and out, if behind they have to go for it on fourth down no matter what. They might take a holding penalty and end up 4th and 5 at their own 30, if they are tied, the punt the ball, if behind they go for it.
As they reach midfield, the calculus shifts to near even, but again they might end up 4th and 20 at the 50 with 20 seconds left. They punt, if tied.
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I'm on the side that like's MAck's going for 2 with less than 2 minutes on the clock
unfortunately, the only "right" decision for Mack is the one that wins the game. There very well may not have been a decision that can beat Clemson yesterday.
when going for an upset vs a superior opponent, I take the shot to take the lead, put the pressure on Clemson to score.
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I like the signal he sent to his players, in retrospect I would have gone for one.
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Memorial Stadium in Lincoln has had a very handsome renovation.
And the Sea of Red is impressive.
the Sea of RED was most impressive down 48-0 with less than 4 minutes to go in the 3rd.
there was probably more than 40,000 fans in the stands, the announcers remarked, saying you would not see this in most stadiums around the country.
I'd say, you would see that in ANY stadium in the country
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I’m all for going for it if the opponent really doesn’t have enough time to respond. If one play is all that separates you from a win or a loss then, yeah, go for 2. That wasn’t the case yesterday.
Even if UNC had gotten the 2 and held Clemson I would have said the play there was to kick the XP.
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I take the easy XP and roll the dice from there.Again Clemson wasn't grinding NC down a tie game late and there is a tightening in their throat.Pisses me off that ND is in their Conference but not for Football.At least they would have a signature game on their schedule
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Ehhh, can we stop with the silly, IMPRECISE percentages being thrown out here?? A pro football win probability thing or numbers pulled out of your butt aren't helping the conversation.
I don't think many of you know how win probability works. NO, if UNC kicks the XP and stops Clemson from scoring and makes it to OT, their win probability doesn't go to 50% or probably anything close to 50%. So get that out of your head.
It has to do with expectation vs what's happened and how that works. Clemson came into the game as a heavy favorite - a 94.1% chance to win (which they did). They're still a heavy favorite if the teams go to OT, because they're tied. I'm not going to pretend it's still 94%, but it's 60-70%, which means UNC has a 60-70% chance of losing in OT (yes, pulled from my butt, but actually based on something - Clemson's worst win% during the game when they were tied was 68%). Looking it up, teams get the 2-pt conversion ~40% of the time. So one could argue the odds are similar for UNC either way. Now, do you try the one-play, anything-can-happen route or risk Clemson's depth coming into play in overtime and possibly multiple OTs? Or risk Clemson's funky day being righted and they start curb-stomping you as they were supposed to?
You take the one-play shot. You stop tempting fate and try to steal the win.
This might help - think of a baseball player who underachieves the first half of the season. He's a career .280 hitter and in his prime, but at the all-star break, he's only hitting .240. Now, you know about regression to the mean, you know the law of averages points to him being truly better than that, and he is. BUT - HE IS NOT GOING TO HIT SO WELL THE 2ND HALF OF THE SEASON THAT HE GETS HIS AVERAGE UP TO .280 FOR THE SEASON. He is likely to hit .280 for the rest of the season, thus bringing it up from .240, but only to around .260 by the end of the season.
For this one game, UNC battled Clemson equally, but this doesn't magically undo the discrepancy between the teams when they kicked off to start the game. Clemson still has all those same advantages they did when the game started and they had a 94.1% chance of winning.
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https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi?request=1&score_differential=-1&quarter=4&minutes=1&seconds=14&field=team&yds_from_goal=25&down=1&yds_to_go=10
For what it’s worth if you go to this site and input Clemson getting the ball back, down 1, at their own 25, with 1:14 to go it still gives them over a 32% chance to win the game. So, again, it isn’t like UNC getting the 2 would seal the deal but missing the 2 really in effect sealed the loss. And it’s actually probably a little higher than that because the scenario generator is built for pro football where the clock doesn’t stop for 1st downs.
The limitations of the situations you can input make it impossible to input an onside kick scenario in there but we know onside kicks have a success rate of about 15% and then even if UNC recovers it they then have to get in FG range and make the kick.
So getting the conversion gives you about a 68% win probability but missing it puts your loss probability somewhere around 90%. That doesn’t make sense to me.
You forgot to adjust for the line. Clemson actually has a 56.78 percent chance of winning down 1 in that spot.
And if it's tied, that percentage is 85.36. Kick, and you have a less than 15 percent chance of winning.
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Hell, look at is as a pure sample-size problem and think logically:
1 play is the smallest sample size you can have.
The smaller the sample size, the more wonky your date is.
Clemson is a much better team than UNC.
So for UNC to have its best chance at winning, it wants the smallest possible data set (of plays) to determine the outcome of the game - because UNC beating Clemson is the wonky outcome in this scenario. The more plays the game takes, the less wonky an outcome you're likely to produce. OT takes at least 8 plays, and very probably more, perhaps many more.
One play, for a win, as the underdog, you do it Every time, you do it.
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yup
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Ehhh, can we stop with the silly, IMPRECISE percentages being thrown out here?? A pro football win probability thing or numbers pulled out of your butt aren't helping the conversation.
Can you stop with your silly, IMPRECISE assertions that your POV tops that of others who cherry pick their arguement like you do yours.You obviously don't know how things would have turned out if UNC goes for the tie.We obviously know how things turned out when they didn't.See how that works.There was nothing in Clemsons body of work yesterday afternoon that guaranteed go ahead or winning.No one is blasting Mack Brown's decision just suggesting they would have tried a different plan of attack.It's all right to have conlicting views with out condescending drivel
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I just did it funny how much the result changes the discussion. Had they succeeded with the 2pt and won the game, I doubt many of the people second guessing the decision would still be analyzing it.
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Around here, we analyze everything.
The NW 2 pointer decisions were bizarre to me though.
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Can you stop with your silly, IMPRECISE assertions that your POV tops that of others who cherry pick their arguement like you do yours.You obviously don't know how things would have turned out if UNC goes for the tie.We obviously know how things turned out when they didn't.See how that works.There was nothing in Clemsons body of work yesterday afternoon that guaranteed go ahead or winning.No one is blasting Mack Brown's decision just suggesting they would have tried a different plan of attack.It's all right to have conlicting views with out condescending drivel
This approach basically implies we will always be second-guessing for our own amusement. It implies that if he kicked and they lost in OT we would then argue he should've gone for it.
And to that point, Clemson had an edge of about 1.1 yards per play, which would be something in the day's body of work to suggest Clemson was more likely to win.
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I just did it funny how much the result changes the discussion. Had they succeeded with the 2pt and won the game, I doubt many of the people second guessing the decision would still be analyzing it.
I agree with it if there are mismatches or the element of surprise go for it.I'm just not a big proponent see the Widcats vs UW.I'd call it a ballsy call if they made it and am not saying it doesn't have it's place
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This approach basically implies we will always be second-guessing for our own amusement. It implies that if he kicked and they lost in OT we would then argue he should've gone for it.
And to that point, Clemson had an edge of about 1.1 yards per play, which would be something in the day's body of work to suggest Clemson was more likely to win.
I was just defending your take that's all :-[.And the guys I watched with in real time said go for the tie,I realize the scenarios
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You forgot to adjust for the line. Clemson actually has a 56.78 percent chance of winning down 1 in that spot.
And if it's tied, that percentage is 85.36. Kick, and you have a less than 15 percent chance of winning.
NW & UNC both lost yesterday going for multiple 2 pt convertions,you can dig up all the damn stats you want Many feel they were detrimental and yesterdays limited samples proved prophetic - just sayin'
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both teams were going to lose if they kicked and took the one point conversions
so there
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both teams were going to lose if they kicked and took the one point conversions,so there
Thanx ,now can you help me with the lottery numbers?
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sure, but past performance is not indicative of future results
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Oh no you don't,not while you have the mystic goggles & chrystal ball
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You forgot to adjust for the line. Clemson actually has a 56.78 percent chance of winning down 1 in that spot.
And if it's tied, that percentage is 85.36. Kick, and you have a less than 15 percent chance of winning.
Good point. I didn’t include the line because I didn’t initially see the relevance but I can see why they take that into account. I guess for me if UNC is tied with about a minute to go they are no longer a 27.5 point underdog but I concede that if still viewed that way then maybe the 2 was the best option.
I personally probably wouldn’t have done that but it may not have made a difference anyway.
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Ohio State is just a machine at this point. How they take a transfer QB that’s basically a rs frosh with little to no experience and then have the guy playing like a seasoned vet that can win the Heisman is so impressive. I’m envious of that offensive system that Meyer brought with him and Day has tweaked and expanded and made his own.
Meanwhile the “QB whisperer” at Michigan is going on year 5 and he still hasn’t developed a QB worth a shit.
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I personally probably wouldn’t have done that but it may not have made a difference anyway.
Correct well put at that point they've been an equal on home field.Now I'll have to wait until some celestial being tells me how things really would have unfolded going for the P.A.T.
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Meanwhile the “QB whisperer” at Michigan is going on year 5 and he still hasn’t developed a QB worth a shit.
Honestly I think he got lucky to have Andrew Luck and then stumbling onto the jerkoff in SF.
Couldn't develop Alex Smith either. He got good when Andy Reid got hold of him.
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Meanwhile the “QB whisperer” at Michigan is going on year......
Well they put up some points yesterday albeit vs the league's dregs.Yesterday Maryland,Rutgers & UNL got out scored 159-7,that's just not going to help much with the computer composite points moving forward
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Honestly I think he got lucky to have Andrew Luck and then stumbling onto the jerkoff in SF.
Couldn't develop Alex Smith either. He got good when Andy Reid got hold of him.
Stop it,we want him sticking around a few more years.Watch the meathead turn it around and go on a run now
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NW & UNC both lost yesterday going for multiple 2 pt convertions,you can dig up all the damn stats you want Many feel they were detrimental and yesterdays limited samples proved prophetic - just sayin'
How did they prove prophetic?
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Honestly I think he got lucky to have Andrew Luck and then stumbling onto the jerkoff in SF.
Couldn't develop Alex Smith either. He got good when Andy Reid got hold of him.
This is to a degree inaccurate. Harbs got Smith to be good enough to stay in the league. He was close to career backup when he arrived. Reid did make him better.
But that fact doesn't take away from the fact the QB play at UM has been pretty not good outside last season and the first one.
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How did they prove prophetic?
They (2 pt.Con.)weren't wrong in hindsight,and your numbers could be skewed,are those team?Conference?National?
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Urban Meyer made Alex Smith pretty good.
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They (2 pt.Con.)weren't wrong in hindsight,and your numbers could be skewed,are those team?Conference?National?
So I have the logic right, you're saying, at the times they were tried, there were some people who felt they were bad ideas. And they were missed and the teams in turn lost, and therefore they proved prophetic?
(The numbers use some kind of high end math, there might be some NFL history in there)
If the answer to the question above is correct, then we get into the finer points of counterfactuals. But I want to make sure I understand correctly.
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Urban Meyer made Alex Smith pretty good.
Made him the #1 pick in the draft. Still blows my mind the 49ers took Smith over Aaron Rodgers. Imagine how different that franchise would’ve been had they just taken Rodgers.
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Can you stop with your silly, IMPRECISE assertions that your POV tops that of others who cherry pick their arguement like you do yours.You obviously don't know how things would have turned out if UNC goes for the tie.We obviously know how things turned out when they didn't.See how that works.There was nothing in Clemsons body of work yesterday afternoon that guaranteed go ahead or winning.No one is blasting Mack Brown's decision just suggesting they would have tried a different plan of attack.It's all right to have conlicting views with out condescending drivel
Not all POVs are on equal footing. Let's not pretend otherwise.
We don't know what might have happened, I don't recall anyone ever saying that. All you can do or I can do or a HC can do is make prudent decisions that will give the team the best chance to win. That's the whole point of this discussion.
I can pick a stock at random and spend my life savings on it and it may double in a year, but that doesn't make random chance a sound investment idea. Just as hope isn't a strategy, neither is luck.
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I just did it funny how much the result changes the discussion. Had they succeeded with the 2pt and won the game, I doubt many of the people second guessing the decision would still be analyzing it.
How about if they kicked the XP and it got blocked?
Entire Earth: THEY SHOULD'VE GONE FOR 2 THERE!
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Made him the #1 pick in the draft. Still blows my mind the 49ers took Smith over Aaron Rodgers. Imagine how different that franchise would’ve been had they just taken Rodgers.
They woulda messed up Rodgers. He needed some mechanics tweaking. (Of note, his last offense at Cal was just insane, even though his stats were just good)
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How about if they kicked the XP and it got blocked?
Entire Earth: THEY SHOULD'VE GONE FOR 2 THERE!
That happened to FSU like 2-3 weeks ago. Some bad team had them in OT and shoulda gone for it and didn't and missed an XP
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sure, but past performance is not indicative of future results
:57: oh my
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They woulda messed up Rodgers. He needed some mechanics tweaking. (Of note, his last offense at Cal was just insane, even though his stats were just good)
Yeah, it's easy to be wary of a QB who had a 2,000 rusher behind him.
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They woulda messed up Rodgers. He needed some mechanics tweaking. (Of note, his last offense at Cal was just insane, even though his stats were just good)
Idk. The kind of pure talent he has- that’s hard to mess up. He probably wouldn’t be as good as he became in GB- but I have zero doubts he’d still have been a hell of a lot better than Checkdown Alex.
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Not all POVs are on equal footing. Let's not pretend otherwise.
Who's POV ran afoul of your omnipotent,elevated insight.At least 3 of us here would have went for the XP.The 3 guys I watched the game with thought the same though we did admire Mack's audacity.We thought Clemson looked haggered and hanging on the ropes not NC.Tigers seemed ineffective and flustered.We're not piling on after the fact just not the route some wouldn't have taken
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On UNC: right call, wrong play. Don't let the result affect the opinion of the decision. The thinking behind going for 2 is sound.
I think this is right. Right decision, wrong play-call.
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https://twitter.com/3YearLetterman/status/1178295674254835712?s=19
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Who's POV ran afoul of your omnipotent,elevated insight.At least 3 of us here would have went for the XP.The 3 guys I watched the game with thought the same though we did admire Mack's audacity.We thought Clemson looked haggered and hanging on the ropes not NC.Tigers seemed ineffective and flustered.We're not piling on after the fact just not the route some wouldn't have taken
Why is one of us basically pouting and bitching and the other is having a conversation? Reflect on that, then we'll talk. 6 random dudes doesn't negate my opinion provided with valid supports.
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Any and every time my POV has had less support and/or fewer facts to back it up. You know, evidence.
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If the Final Four ends up being Alabama, OU, OSU, and UGA, it will be "interesting".
You could throw UDubb in there for anyone also.
But not Missouri and Clemson.
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If the Final Four ends up being Alabama, OU, OSU, and UGA, it will be "interesting".
You could throw UDubb in there for anyone also.
But not Missouri and Clemson.
You lost me. Particularly with Missouri.
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If Missouri somehow played Clemson, the QBs would both have played for Clemson last year. (Mizzou is on probation).
OU QB played for Bama, etc. UDubb QB started for UGA two years back. UGA is a kind of "QB U" these days. Cradle of QBs?
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Georgia = Where QB's go to transfer elsewhere?
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That would be another way of putting it. If you can't beat out Jake Fromm, don't come.
As good as Fields has looked this year, it's interesting, and has some tongues wagging etc.
It could be that Fields is better for OSU and Fromm is better for UGA. I think Eason has NFL talent but not the "head for the game" that Fromm has. It will be interesting to see where Fromm is drafted, projections are all over the place.
The UGA backup QB was a former walk on who left for a year and returned with a ship.
He's apparently pretty decent.
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If Missouri somehow played Clemson, the QBs would both have played for Clemson last year. (Mizzou is on probation).
OU QB played for Bama, etc. UDubb QB started for UGA two years back. UGA is a kind of "QB U" these days. Cradle of QBs?
Gotcha. Wasn’t following at all. Now I am. Brain on vacation.
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Why is one of us basically pouting and bitching and the other is having a conversation? Reflect on that, then we'll talk. 6 random dudes doesn't negate my opinion provided with valid supports.
Look in the mirror pal you weren't conversing with anyone when you blasted in with your bombastic "Ehhh, can we stop with the silly, IMPRECISE percentages being thrown out here??"The rest of us were having a conversation which you couldn't help interjecting your carnival barking self correcting the proletariat
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Almost 68.0795% of percentages are imprecise.
In fact, 70,419% are inaccurate.
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Almost 68.0795% of percentages are imprecise.
In fact, 70,419% are inaccurate.
Thank You CD a voice of truth and reason.......for an SEC Fan
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And 4 out of 5 doctors...
...is 80%.
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These drugs ads plaguing the air waves get on my nerves. Music playing.
"Do you have a mole on your body somewhere? You could be suffering from idiosympathic symptonoma (IS), but Erudity is here to HELP! Just one pill every day and it can cure most IS in nearly 80% of patients!
Don't take eriduty if you are allergic to erudity or its ingredients, tell your doctor if any body parts fall off while taking it, It could leave you unable to sleep or talk and cause you to die young. Some patients have reported massive renal failure.
So, talk to your doctor about ERUDITY, the miracle cure for what ails you!
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George Dickel 12 or Yuengling worx too - I don't have it.Or maybe I don't notice it - something along those lines
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I always love that line.
"Don't take this medicine if you're allergic to it."
Umm... I've never taken this medicine, that's why I'm going to ask my doctor about it. So I don't know if I'm allergic to it.
If I was allergic to it, I'd probably already know, from taking it. Which means I've probably already asked my doctor about it, which was how I got a hold of it the first time.
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Are you afraid of responsibility? If you are, then you have hypengyophobia.
How about cats? If you're afraid of cats, you have ailurophasia.
Are you afraid of staircases? If you are, then you have climacaphobia. Maybe you have thalassophobia. This is fear of the ocean, or gephyrobia, which is the fear of crossing bridges. Or maybe you have pantophobia. Do you think you have pantophobia?
What's pantophobia?
The fear of everything.
THAT'S IT!
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Are you afraid of responsibility? If you are, then you have hypengyophobia.
How about cats? If you're afraid of cats, you have ailurophasia.
Are you afraid of staircases? If you are, then you have climacaphobia. Maybe you have thalassophobia. This is fear of the ocean, or gephyrobia, which is the fear of crossing bridges. Or maybe you have pantophobia. Do you think you have pantophobia?
What's pantophobia?
The fear of everything.
THAT'S IT!
(https://media.giphy.com/media/wL8dslmj94UNO/giphy.gif)
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Are you afraid of responsibility? If you are, then you have hypengyophobia.
How about cats? If you're afraid of cats, you have ailurophasia.
Are you afraid of staircases? If you are, then you have climacaphobia. Maybe you have thalassophobia. This is fear of the ocean, or gephyrobia, which is the fear of crossing bridges. Or maybe you have pantophobia. Do you think you have pantophobia?
What's pantophobia?
The fear of everything.
THAT'S IT!
Ok, Dr. Lucy.
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Week 5 NCAA Tournament projections
| | APPALACHIAN STATE | | |
| 3 | | GEORGIA | | |
| | NOON - espn2 | | |
| . | | | |
| | TOLEDO | | |
| 2 | | CLEMSON | | |
| | 1:30 - ESPN | | |
| . | | | |
| 10 | | FLORIDA | | |
| 8 | | WISCONSIN | | |
| | 3:00 - ABC | | |
| . | | . | |
| 18 | | CENTRAL FLORIDA | | |
| 4 | | OHIO STATE | | |
| | 4:30 - espn2 | | |
| . | | . | |
| | FLORIDA ATLANTIC | | |
| 1 | | ALABAMA | | |
| | 6:00 - ESPN | | |
| . | | . | |
| 9 | | NOTRE DAME | | |
| 7 | | AUBURN | | |
| | 7:30 - ABC | | |
| . | | . | |
| 16 | | BOISE STATE | | |
| 5 | | LSU | | |
| | 9:00 - espn2 | | |
| . | | . | |
| 13 | | OREGON | | |
| 6 | | OKLAHOMA | | |
| | 10:30 - ESPN | | |
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FAU playing Alabama, yay.