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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 27, 2019, 05:08:07 PM

Title: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 27, 2019, 05:08:07 PM
Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-4-11387/). 

Votes through @MrNubbz (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=17) , 16 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/4HAyeO5.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/cFis1bk.png)
Rankings so far this year graph:
(https://i.imgur.com/uNuRvmB.jpg)
Change from beginning of year (aka COTY prediction chart):(https://i.imgur.com/5YLLQEP.jpg)
Vote distribution:

(https://i.imgur.com/XnFrl2m.jpg)
Schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/9kdIQzl.png)




Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: LittlePig on September 28, 2019, 10:49:38 PM
1. OSU
2. Wisc
3. PSU
4. Iowa
5. Mich
6.  MSU
7.  Minn
8.  NW
9.  Indy
10.  Neb
11.  MD
12.  Purdue
13.  ILL
14.  Rut
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Hawkinole on September 28, 2019, 11:25:36 PM
1. Wisconsin 1, 2, 2, 4, 8 - Two good defenses faced each other; one good offense; one offense sucks which is not the Badgers. Badgers won.
2. Ohio State 2, 1, 1, 1, 2 - They looked good, but while Nebraska has talent they are not a sound team.
3. Penn State 3, 4, 4, 3, 7 - Penn State now leads the Maryland series 40-2-1.
4. Iowa 4, 5, 6, 6, 9 -  Thoroughly dominated a second rate opponent.
5. Michigan 5, 3, 3, 2, 1 - Rutgers is the tonic that cures many illnesses.
6. Michigan State 6, 6, 5, 5, 5 - Won despite themselves. The best of the second class of the conference.
7. Northwestern 10, 7, 9, 7, 4 - Another loss; but they will be in every game because of this defense.
8. Minnesota 11, 11, 11, 12, 6 - Just keeps on barely winning.
9. Maryland 7, 8, 7, 9, 12 - Started out the year great; now doing their usual dance toward the bottom.
10. Indiana 12, 12, 12, 13, 10 - This team is dangerous; but cannot seem to pull the big ones out.
11. Nebraska 8, 10, 10, 11, 3 - Lots of ball insecurity. Lots of ball insecurity.
12. Illinois 9, 9, 8, 8, 13 - Deserved a respite after last week.
13. Purdue 13, 13, 13, 14, 11 - More of the same for Purdue.
14 Rutgers 14, 14, 14, 10, 14 - Could do better at scheduling opponents when they aren't pissed.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: MichiFan87 on September 28, 2019, 11:33:18 PM
1. Ohio State - The only question is if/when this team will have a letdown....
2. Wisconsin - Not dominant today but still better than the rest.
3. Michigan - I know it was against the worst team in the league, but they played much better today.
4. Iowa - We'll find out how good they are next week.
5. Penn State - This team still struggled with Pittsburgh so I'm still skeptical.
6. Michigan State - Fortunate to win today, and their pass defense looks somewhat vulnerable.
7. Minnesota - Not sold on them, but they do appear to have a good offense.
8. Northwestern - Good defense and bad offense, as usual.
9. Indiana - Probably overrating them but surprisingly competitive today.
10. Nebraska - I need to see them beat a decent team.
11. Maryland - I'm feeling vindicated for ranking them so low before the season.
12. Purdue - Give them credit for almost coming back, but they looked brutal on defense.
13. Illinois - Probably going to be another long year.
14. Rutgers - As bad as ever.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: iahawk15 on September 29, 2019, 07:02:43 AM
1) Ohio State (2)
2) Wisconsin (1)
3) Penn State (4)
4) Michigan State (3)
5) Michigan (5)
6) Iowa (6)
7) Minnesota (8)
8) Maryland (7)
9) Nebraska (9)
10) Northwestern (11)
11) Indiana (12)
12) Purdue (10)
13) Illinois (13)
14) Rutgers (14)



Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 29, 2019, 09:31:31 AM
1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Iowa
4. Penn State
5. Michigan State
6. Minnesota
7. Michigan
8. Northwestern
9. Indiana
10. Nebraska
11. Illinois
12. Purdue
13. Maryland
14. 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: MaximumSam on September 29, 2019, 09:52:23 AM
1. Ohio State: Giving them the top spot this week because Wisconsin looked mortal.  Humming right along, though the grind will catch up to them eventually.  Still amazing how much better the back seven has looked compared to last year.

2. Wisconsin: Offense was in fits and starts against Northwestern after incinerating Michigan.  But championship teams have more than one way to win, and the defense poured it on.

3. Penn State: Big leap up.  I was bearish on them, but they made a statement by obliterating Maryland.  If the offense can be consistent they've got something.

4. Iowa: Whipped a bad team, which is what good teams do.

5. Michigan: Ditto.  Can they be better than good?  Very interested to see how their offense does next week.

6. Michigan State: Dropped a bit after nearly losing to Indiana.  The defense is strong, Lewerke is good, but their inability to run the ball consistently keeps them in danger.

7. Minnesota: I mean, yeah?  Fairly convincing first three quarters for the Gophs, who seem intent on making every game interesting.

8. Indiana: Giving them a bit of a mulligan on games without Penix.  I'd want a mulligan for any games I had to play without Penix.

9. Nebraska: I'm sure that hurt but most games won't be that.

10. Northwestern: Looked like trash up to yesterday, and now not trash.  

11. Purdue: Health is important.

12. Illinois: Can they steal a couple this season?

13. Maryland: Looked utterly incompetent against PSU.  Not sure what they are.

14. Rutgers: Real sure what they are.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: FearlessF on September 29, 2019, 09:54:13 AM
1. OSU
2. Wisconsin
--
3. PSU
4. Iowa
5. MSU
--
6. Northwestern
7. Michigan
8. Nebraska
9. Minnesota
10.Purdue
11. Maryland
--
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutger


nothing changed from last week
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 29, 2019, 11:54:48 AM
1 Buckeyes
2 Nittany Lions
3 Badgers 
.
4 Hawkeyes 
5 Spartans 
6 Wolverines 
.
7 Golden Gophers 
8 Wildcats 
9 Hoosiers
.
10 Terrapins 
11 Cornhuskers 
12 Fighting Illini 
13 Boilermakers 
.
14 Scarlet Knights 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on September 29, 2019, 02:23:54 PM
1. Ohio State - Looking like a national champion contender at the moment.

2. Wisconsin - Struggled a bit against NW, but not enough to move them down.

3.  Iowa - Quietly chugging along...

4.  Michigan State - Not going to ding them for a fluke loss to ASU, but that defense looked vulnerable.  

5.  Michigan - I still think they got unfairly treated by the media.  Joe Paterno always said that you're never as bad as you look when you lose, and you're never as good as you look when you win.   That applies in back to back weeks.

6.  Penn State - I thought they would lose to Maryland, but I underestimated just how bad Maryland's offensive line was.  I knew it wasn't good, but even Buffalo's O-Line played better...  Pitt's O-Line completely dominated PSU...  I don't know what to think of this team yet.

7.  Minnesota - I feel like maybe I've been under rating them?

8.  Nebraska - No real shame in losing to OSU the way they are playing.

9.  Northwestern - More competitive against Wisconsin than Michigan was.  Like always, continues to improve from game to game.

10.  Indiana - The only real blemish on their record is the blowout loss to OSU.  Right now that doesn't look so bad.  They could have easily beaten Michigan State with a bit of luck.  This team may be sneaky good.

11.  Maryland - They have more talent at the skill positions than Michigan does.  Unfortunately that doesn't matter, because their offensive line may be one of the worst in college football.  Their coaching is also probably the worst in the B1G.  Teams are supposed to be improving, not getting worse.  And why wouldn't you try quick plays to take pressure off of your oline?  If this team had followed the Buffalo or Pitt playbook, they could have given Penn State all sorts of problems.  Locksley seems like a good man, but I don't think he's a good head coach.

12.  Illinois -

13.  Purdue - Injuries on a thin depth chart are not a good thing.  I am rooting for Purdue to succeed, just not next week!

14.  Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: TyphonInc on September 30, 2019, 12:28:27 AM
1. Ohio State (+1) - Been Dominate each week, maybe I'm still over valuing Nebraska
2. Wisconsin (-1) -Tested, but won.
3. Penn State (--) - Making Maryland look like Rutgers.
4. Iowa (--) - Big Game this week
5. Michigan (+1) - Big Game this week
6. Michigan State (-1) - it's still a win
7. Maryland (--) - There years Jekyll and Hyde?
8. Northwestern - 
9. Minnesota - nice road win
10. Nebraska - Not ready yet. Hoping they can get a couple back back recruiting classes.
11. Indiana -
12. Purdue -
13. Illinois -
14. Rutgers - worst of the worst
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Temp430 on September 30, 2019, 07:22:43 AM
1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Iowa
4. Penn State
5. Michigan State
6. Michigan
7. Northwestern
8. Minnesota
9. Nebraska
10. Indiana
11. Purdue
12. Maryland
13. Illinios
14. Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: fezzador on September 30, 2019, 08:57:35 AM
1) Ohio State
2) Penn State
3) Wisconsin
4) Iowa
5) Michigan
6) Michigan State
7) Minnesota
8) Nebraska
9) Maryland
10) Northwestern
11) Indiana
12) Purdue
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on September 30, 2019, 09:58:42 AM
1. Ohio State - Looking the best so far
2. Wisconsin - They always seem to have trouble with Northwestern. Reminds me of OSU vs Purdue
---

3. Iowa - Looking the best of the next group of teams
4. Penn State - Big win over one of the rivals. Interesting to see if it was Penn St being that good or UM being that bad.
5. Michigan State - Struggled with Indiana but showed some offense.
6. Michigan - Took out their frustrations on Rutgers
7. Minnesota - They are getting good as winning the close games.
---
 
8. Northwestern - Too banged up at this point, but put up a good fight.
9. Nebraska - Again, not sure if they are this bad or tOSU is that good.
10. Indiana - Hung around with MSU. They showed some fight.
11. Purdue - Loosing their 2 best players hurts in a winnable game.
12. Illinois
13. Maryland - What happened to that offense?
14. Rutgers - Finally moving on from the Chris Ash disaster.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 30, 2019, 10:18:24 AM
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on September 30, 2019, 09:58:42 AM
14.                - Finally moving on from the Chris Ash disaster.

Probably to another disaster. End the experiment. NOW.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on September 30, 2019, 11:01:32 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 30, 2019, 10:18:24 AM
Probably to another disaster. End the experiment. NOW.
Is that even possible?

Shoulda pushed for VT or UVA....
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: SFBadger96 on September 30, 2019, 11:52:06 AM
1) Ohio State: until someone proves differently.
2) Hmmm...Wisconsin: because it has the better win to date, and it's shaky win was better than Penn State's shaky win.
3) Penn State: delivered an in-conference beat down to remind everyone who's who in the East.
4) Iowa: don't everyone go sleeping on the Hawkeyes; they are looking good.
5) Michigan: done with last week's overreaction; Big Blue reminded everyone that it has better athletes than most of the conference.
6) Michigan State: another shaky one, though.
7) Minnesota: winning matters, I guess, but this has to be one of the most unimpressive 4-0 teams in the Power 5.
8) Northwestern: as usual a solid effort against the Badgers...still another loss.
9) Nebraska: ouch.
10) Maryland: that's going to leave a mark.
11) Indiana: points for putting in a decent showing?
12) Purdue: it was close...it was a loss.
13) Illinois: unimpressive against Idle.
14) Rutgers: sigh.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 30, 2019, 12:10:13 PM


Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: MaximumSam on September 30, 2019, 01:00:34 PM
SP+ Rankings

1. OSU (2)
2. PSU (7)
3. Wisconsin (8)
4. Michigan (13)
5. Iowa (20)
6. MSU (21)
7. Indiana (29)
8. Minnesota (33)
9. Nebraska (39)
10. Maryland (46)
11. Illinois (56)
12. Purdue (63)
13. Northwestern (69)
14. Rutgers (97)
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: MrNubbz on September 30, 2019, 01:07:38 PM
1)tOSU - yay
2)UW tough out saturday vs a feisty Wildcat squad
3)Iowa - still undefeated and has looked solid
4)Penn St could move up when going thru the meat of the order
5)Michigan - could be getting some traction
6)MSU - O-Line problems/injuries
7)Gophs - haven't lost
8)N'Western - scrappy but like N.O.B pointed out banged up
9)UNL - they'll get back on the horse
10)Indiana - tough loss
11)Purdue
12)Maryland - but have to get it together
13)Illinois
14)NJ State
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 30, 2019, 04:18:32 PM
Results posted, votes through @MrNubbz (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=17) , 16 voters.  

We have a lot more agreement this week.  At this point every spot has at least half of us voting for the same team except #9, #10, #11.  

The big move this week was Maryland slumping from #7 with a 7.29 average all the way down to #11 with a 10.57 average.  Interestingly, PSU did not get a corresponding improvement as we are nearly universally agreed that tOSU and UW are the top-2 so there just wasn't much room for PSU to move up.  

Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin convincingly beating Nebraska, Maryland, and Michigan respectively over the past two weeks has opened up a sizable gulf between the top few teams and everybody else.  It will be interesting to see how Iowa/Michigan plays out this week.  If Iowa wins they solidfy their place as one of the league's top-4.  If Michigan wins they are probably our 4th best team and the gap between the top-3 and #4 appears to be humongous.  
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 30, 2019, 04:28:36 PM
Comparing the divisions based on our rankings:

As of now, we collectively think that the B1G-E is better at five out of seven levels.  

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: ELA on September 30, 2019, 10:04:01 PM


Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: LittlePig on October 01, 2019, 08:10:45 AM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 30, 2019, 04:28:36 PM
Comparing the divisions based on our rankings:

  • tOSU > UW:  B1G-E
  • PSU > IA:  B1G-E
  • M > MN:  B1G-E
  • MSU > NU:  B1G-E
  • UNL > IU:  B1G-W
  • UMD > PU:  B1G-E
  • IL > RU:  B1G-W
As of now, we collectively think that the B1G-E is better at five out of seven levels. 


Another way to look at it

Average rank of East = 7.12
Average rank of West = 7.88

I predict the east-west race will be the same as always.  In terms of win-loss record, the east will end up. winning by only 1 game in the regular reason.  Then the East will once again win the CCG.

There really has only been 1 year so far, 2017,  when the east actually dominated the regular season win-loss record.    All other seasons have been virtual ties, with the ties broken by the East winning the championship game.  The East is always stronger at the top.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 01, 2019, 01:58:33 PM
Quote from: LittlePig on October 01, 2019, 08:10:45 AM
Another way to look at it

Average rank of East = 7.12
Average rank of West = 7.88

I predict the east-west race will be the same as always.  In terms of win-loss record, the east will end up. winning by only 1 game in the regular reason.  Then the East will once again win the CCG.

There really has only been 1 year so far, 2017,  when the east actually dominated the regular season win-loss record.    All other seasons have been virtual ties, with the ties broken by the East winning the championship game.  The East is always stronger at the top.
That is a fair point.  Here are the gaps in average ranking for all of those that I listed above:

They are mostly pretty close.  The major exceptions are at #3 where we feel that Michigan is MUCH better than Northwestern and #4 where we feel that MSU is much better than Northwestern (as evidenced by MSU beating NU by 21 in Evanston).  

From the look of things right now, I think that the B1G-E Championship race is more fluid.  Ohio State is the clear leader but I feel that PSU, M, and MSU are all good enough that they *COULD* beat the Buckeyes on the right day.  In the West it looks like the UW/IA game is the beginning and end of the Championship race.  


Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 01, 2019, 03:08:41 PM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 01, 2019, 01:58:33 PM
That is a fair point.  Here are the gaps in average ranking for all of those that I listed above:
  • tOSU >  UW:  B1G-E by 1.07
  • PSU > IA:  B1G-E by 0.40
  • M > MN:  B1G-E by 2.00
  • MSU > NU:  B1G-E by 2.80
  • UNL > IU:  B1G-W by by 0.60
  • UMD > PU:  B1G-E by 1.40
  • IL > RU:  B1G-W by 1.40

They are mostly pretty close.  The major exceptions are at #3 where we feel that Michigan is MUCH better than Northwestern and #4 where we feel that MSU is much better than Northwestern (as evidenced by MSU beating NU by 21 in Evanston). 

From the look of things right now, I think that the B1G-E Championship race is more fluid.  Ohio State is the clear leader but I feel that PSU, M, and MSU are all good enough that they *COULD* beat the Buckeyes on the right day.  In the West it looks like the UW/IA game is the beginning and end of the Championship race. 



My problem with this analysis is your drawing the conclusions in bold based on the numbers. It assumes a linearity that you can't really assume.

Although there is agreement on the pecking order, you can't immediately assume that the gaps between spots are as large as you make out. 

Now, if you asked people to create a power ranking on a 100-point scale, you get enough granularity to start making quantitative judgements that you cant make here. But you don't have enough information in a 14-point scale to determine where the gaps exist or do not exist.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 01, 2019, 03:20:58 PM
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 01, 2019, 03:08:41 PM
My problem with this analysis is your drawing the conclusions in bold based on the numbers. It assumes a linearity that you can't really assume.

Although there is agreement on the pecking order, you can't immediately assume that the gaps between spots are as large as you make out.

Now, if you asked people to create a power ranking on a 100-point scale, you get enough granularity to start making quantitative judgements that you cant make here. But you don't have enough information in a 14-point scale to determine where the gaps exist or do not exist.
To an extent, I think that you are right.  I do think that I have partially accounted for your point by using the ranking average not the ranking.  Ie, if you just look at the rankings, Iowa is fourth, one spot behind #3 Penn State and one spot ahead of #5 Michigan.  However, when you look at the ranking averages you can see that Iowa is close to PSU (just 0.40 behind) and substantially ahead of Michigan (up by 0.67).  

In general, I think that if we collectively believe that two teams are REALLY close then about half of us will have one ahead of the other and the other half vice-versa such that their ranking averages will be VERY close.  For example, Ohio State is ranked #1 by 16 of our 17 voters while Wisconsin has one #1 vote, 14 #2 votes, and two #3 votes.  I read that to mean that we are pretty strongly convinced that tOSU is better than Wisconsin.  That said, it could be true that the 14 of us who voted tOSU #1 and UW #2 all think that it is REALLY close in which case you are right, the averages do not reflect how close we collectively think the two teams are.  
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on October 01, 2019, 03:39:04 PM
But OSU/UW is the opposite. The fact that it's basically unanimous that OSU is #1 and UW is #2 might mean they're only "1 spot apart", or it might mean that there's a 3-spot gap between where OSU is and where UW is. 

Your biggest gap is MSU->NU. Given the troubles with Michigan State's offense, I'm not sure that I'd personally rate the gap between the schools to be larger than the gap between OSU and UW. 

When we do the tiers in basketball we somewhat account for this, because some years we end up with an "empty" tier showing gaps. Many of the people doing power rankings deliberately insert lines between groups of teams that are their "tiers", where maybe the difference between #5 and #8 is small, but the difference between #8 and #9 is very large. 

I do agree with your point that using a collected average helps SOMEWHAT, but I still think it's a bridge too far for this analysis. ESPECIALLY if you're trying to pick and choose east vs west. We may collectively feel that UM and MSU are close, and MN and NU are slightly worse but close to each other, and that will artificially inflate the difference between average between the two groupings. If you're comparing two teams that are next to each other in the rankings it can show where the tier groupings lie, but then when you're arbitrarily looking at one team in the east vs the next available team in the west, you're making logical jumps outside of what this power ranking is supposed to be showing.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: fezzador on October 01, 2019, 04:38:59 PM
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on September 30, 2019, 11:01:32 AM
Is that even possible?

Shoulda pushed for VT or UVA....
There's a ton of schools out there that would have a better addition than RU.  Even freakin' Iowa State would have been a better add.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: ELA on October 03, 2019, 04:21:57 PM
Updated Massey composite computer ranking, with 89 rankings (last week in parenthesis)