| Last year Michigan State's high hopes began to wilt in the desert, making it the next stop on Big Ten revenge weekend. Arizona State still has plenty of weapons, that gave the Spartans defense fits last year, in spite of the low score. The difference is Michigan State's defensive line is a lot better, and Arizona State's offensive line is an absolute mess. It was already going to to be a point of weakness for the Sun Devils, and then injuries have exacerbated the situation. Across the board on Football Outsiders their line ranks in the bottom 30, including 5th worst in sack rate. Michigan State's defensive line ranks #2 in overall line yards, #5 in standard plays, and #1 in power success rate at 0.00%, meaning they have not allowed a 1st down conversion on a single 3rd or 4th and 2 or less. Also, while it was the Spartans trying to adjust to the trip and the climate last year, it's now on Arizona State. While the weather extreme won't be like last year, Arizona State does have a true freshman making his first career road start. He's going to be under pressure all night, so he's either going to have to play well over his head to make tons of quick decisions, on quick routes, or play a Houdini to create on his own. The Spartans made a clear choice to focus all efforts on N'Keal Harry last year, and let other guys beat them. It sort of served it's intended purpose, in spite of Harry's 6 catch, 89 yard effort. But the other wepons did make them pay, and Arizona State threw for 380 yards, led by Eno Benjamin who was totally shut down running, but had his best game of the season as a pass catcher, with 6 catches for 54 yards. Arizona State already resorted to that plan this year, due to their blocking troubles, with Benjamin only picking up 69 yards on 2.9 ypc against FCS Sacramento State, but catching 4 passes for 94 yards. They rank dead last in the FBS in team rushing yards among teams who haven't yet faced a Power 5 team. Arizona State's defense will serve as a very good barometer for whether Michigan State's offense is actually "fixed" or if last week was a mirage. The secondary is unproven, but the front seven, which gave the Spartans line as much trouble as anyone last year, looks to be even better, even without a singular talent like Renell Wren. If the Spartans can establish some running game, even if it doesn't quite look like last week, I just struggle to see how the Sun Devils score even as many as the 16 points they scored last year, with a better offense, at home. |