CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 06, 2019, 05:34:23 PM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-1/).
Votes through SFBadger (18 voters):
(https://i.imgur.com/OLoWNRE.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/TlbdVqq.png)
Rankings and change graph:
(https://i.imgur.com/Fmk1IdY.png)
Preseason -> Current change (ie, COTY graph):
(https://i.imgur.com/LhR1rqO.png)
Vote Distribution:
(https://i.imgur.com/m6r5JJZ.png)
Schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/VWQlkuF.png)
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Maryland
4. Penn State
5. Michigan Stste
6. Iowa
7. Michigan
8. Northwestern
9. Indiana
10. Nebraska
11. Minnesota
12. Illinois
13. Purdue
14. Rutgers
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Gonna have to shake these up.
1. Wisconsin: Utter domination two weeks in a row moves them to star pupil. Haven't played a good team, but who has? Defense has been great, we knew they could run, and now they pass. B1G is on notice.
2. Ohio State: Very strong effort against Cincinnati. While they haven't quite put everything together on offense, they have a pretty wide number of things they can do and will be difficult to defend. Also they play defense again.
3. Iowa: Quietly going about their business.
4. Michigan: Tough team to rank. They probably should have lost, but Army can make you look bad. What is clear is the offense is not where they need it to be to be a contender. But that's been true for them for a while and they are still tough to beat.
5. Maryland: Too high? Too low? They beat the snot out of Syracuse. This team can move the ball. Very interested to see them against a team that plays defense.
6. Michigan State: Got their offense going. An MSU that plays offense is damned good. But I'm gonna need more proof before I move them up.
7. Penn State: Final score looks nice, but they looked kinda bad for much of the game. Buffalo is no joke, but they were outgained and better teams beckon.
8. Minnesota: Hardly dominant, but going across the country and getting a win is nothing to sneeze at.
9. Nebraska: Not showing to be much better than last year.
10. Purdue: Nice win. Still shaky.
11. Northwestern: See what they have cooked up next week.
12. Illinois: 2-0
13. Indiana: Ditto
14: Rutgers: sad face
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1. OSU
2. Wisc
3. MD
4. MSU
5. PSU
6. Iowa
7. Mich
8. NW
9. Neb
10. Pur
11. ILL
12. Indy
13. Minn
14. Rut
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1. Ohio State
2. Maryland
3. Wisconsin
4. Penn State
5. Iowa
6. Michigan State
7. Michigan
8. Illinois
9. Minnesota
10. Northwestern
11. Purdue
12. Nebraska
13. Indiana
14.
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1) Ohio State (2)
2) Wisconsin (4)
3) Penn State (3)
4) Michigan (1)
5) Maryland (8)
6) Michigan State (5)
7) Iowa (6)
8) Northwestern (7)
9) Minnesota (9)
10) Purdue (11)
11) Nebraska (10)
12) Indiana (13)
13) Illinois (12)
14) Rutgers (14)
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Oh no ya don't 847
1. Wisconsin - 400 yds passing?Ruh-Roh
2. Ohio State - consistent
3. Maryland - Explosive,will be ranked
4. Penn State - 1st half malase,pulled away later
5. Iowa - solid,get ready for the Cyclones
6. Michigan - a wins a win,Army kicker had the leg though
7. Michigan State - could move up if they stay healthy,2-0 ASU next week,hope MD showered after agreeing to those threads.
8. Indiana - Buckeyes next week
9.Illinois
10. Minnesota
11. Purdue
12. Nebraska
13. N.U.
14.N.J.State
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1 Ohio State - was expecting a dog fight. Nope.
2 Penn St - That D will keep them in the mix.
3 Wisconsin - I can't see them tripping over any of the B1G West road apples. Even King Barry's nightmare crossover scenario wont keep 'em out of the CCG.
4 Maryland - Can't have them any lower than third in the B1G East after they jail sexed the ACC's #2 overall.
5 Michigan State - Easily dispatched of second best team in own state.
6 Michigan - survive and move on
7 Iowa - Rolling into the CyHawk game hot
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8 Minnesota - road win out west
9 Nebraska - no Scott Frost year two magic
10 Northwestern - Need more data
11 Indiana - cute start
12 Illinois - comeback win over big bad UConn
13 Purdue - good bounce back win, but still lost to a mid-major week 1
14 Rutgers - Not, not good
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Knee Jerk Reactions:
1. Wisconsin - West looks to have it's champ
2. Maryland - Their 1 deep can compete with anyone, how is their 2 deep?
3. Penn State - didn't see the game, offense 17 minutes 45 points = explosive
4. Ohio State - methodical
5. Michigan State - it burns my eyes, make it stop.
6. Michigan - I got about 20 texts, on my way home from the Shoe, circle the wagon Jimmy, this is your year.
7. Iowa - It was just Rutgers
8. Nebraska - 1st half Nebraska I loved; 2nd half WTF it's like they wanted to be in the B12
9. Northwestern - enjoy your rest
10. Minnesota - OT late night win
11. Indiana -
12. Purdue - SEC SEC SEC
13. Illinois -
14. Rutgers - I hope they lose all there games from now till they are asked to leave.
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Knee Jerk Reactions:
14. Rutgers - I hope they lose all there games from now till they are asked to leave.
I'm to the point of not even acknowledging them. Just GTFO.
This will forever tarnish Big Jim's reputation. His other additions are fine (PSU, UMD, UNL) but this one just reeks.
Bring Chicago back. Even if they suck, there will be a bunch more Rhodes Scholars and a major CIC addition.
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/universities-by-number-of-rhodes-scholars.html
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Chicago back in the B1G?
Bugs Bunny would love it! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSZ1h-bydS4)
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1. OSU
2. Wisconsin
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3. PSU
4. MSU
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
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7. Maryland
8. Northwestern
9. Nebraska
10. Minnesota
11.Purdue
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12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutger
I swapped Wisconsin and Michigan from week one
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Chicago back in the B1G?
Bugs Bunny would love it! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSZ1h-bydS4)
Maybe he can go out and get UMass before he leaves. You know, corner that Boston TV market and all that.
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I'm to the point of not even acknowledging them. Just GTFO.
This will forever tarnish Big Jim's reputation. His other additions are fine (PSU, UMD, UNL) but this one just reeks.
Bring Chicago back. Even if they suck, there will be a bunch more Rhodes Scholars and a major CIC addition.
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/universities-by-number-of-rhodes-scholars.html
Chicago doesn’t make sense on any level.
Yes, Rutgers blows. But we all know why Jim did it. Money grab. The NYC/NJ media market is largest in USA. He wanted the B1G to get a cut and a footprint in that market.
I hated the move as much as the next guy, but I can see his reasoning behind it.
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1. (1) (2) Ohio State - Still dominant.
2. (4) (8) Wisconsin - Returning to dominance.
3. (2) (1) Michigan - I am not so sure they belong here.
4. (3) (7) Penn State - I am not so sure they belong here either.
5. (5) (5) Michigan State - A respectable performance over nobody.
6. (6) (9) Iowa - Shutout a team that put up 42 points a week ago.
7. (9) (12) Maryland - Impressive looking win, but they have started out strong and faded before.
8. (8) (13) Illinois - Better than they have been.
9. (7) (4) Northwestern - Didn't do much on Saturday.
10. (11) (3) Nebraska - They may come on late in the season. They aren't doing much early.
11. (12) (6) Minnesota - I am not sure in what order the bottom four should be. Another close win.
12. (13) (10) Indiana - Wiped out an FCS school. So what?
13. (14) (11) Purdue - A win, but not such a great win.
14. (10) (14) Rutgers - Rutgers has some pieces, but is missing others. It has quite a punter.
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14. has some pieces, but is missing others. It has quite a punter.
He gets lots of practice.
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5. Maryland: Too high? Too low? They beat the snot out of Syracuse. This team can move the ball. Very interested to see them against a team that plays defense.
Interesting.
That was the one thing they claimed would win the game for them.
Supposedly their DL has a few NFL talents.
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Interesting.
That was the one thing they claimed would win the game for them.
Supposedly their DL has a few NFL talents.
They were pretty average last year, still early but don't look that great.
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Yes, Rutgers blows. But we all know why Jim did it. Money grab. The NYC/NJ media market is largest in USA. He wanted the B1G to get a cut and a footprint in that market.
I hated the move as much as the next guy, but I can see his reasoning behind it.
Ya but their has to be interest and I'm not sure they're getting enough TV's tuned in to warrent the move
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1. Ohio State - Dominating Cincinnati is impressive.
2. Wisconsin - Looking strong so far, but we'll see how they do against good defenses.
3. Michigan - Army looked much better than they did against Rice, and they also had some breaks (namely, the defensive TD called back).
4. Iowa - Dominated the worst team in the league as expected.
5. Maryland - I appear to have severely underrated Maryland so far. I'm still not sure how good they are, but they've earned the benefit of the doubt for now.
6. Michigan State - Won convincingly but is Western Michigan any good? We'll find out more the rest of the way.
7. Penn State - Slow start before dominant second half, and I'm not sure Buffalo is that good this year.
8. Minnesota - QB play looked surprisingly good and they deserve credit for beating a MWC contender in their place.
9. Nebraska - Not a bad loss, but they did choke.
10. Purdue - Does beating Vanderbilt prove much? Meanwhile, Nevada got annihilated by Oregon.
11. Northwestern - Stanford doesn't look so good anymore, albeit their QB was out yesterday.
12. Indiana - They appear to have an offense like they did under Wilson.
13. Illinois - Not as dominant against another bad team.
14. Rutgers - Even Massachusetts is already proving to be awful so that win means nothing.
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(https://oi142.photobucket.com/albums/r89/mcwups1/PowerRankings_zpsznzq8yue.png)
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(https://oi142.photobucket.com/albums/r89/mcwups1/PowerRankings_zpsznzq8yue.png)
Ok, I'll bite. I remember that you use some kind of formula but can't remember the details of how it works.
Maybe you can refresh my memory and explain how your formula could result in Minnesota at #2 and OSU at #6.
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1. Ohio State - I still want to leave Michigan #1, but after last week I really can't.
2. Michigan - Army is a good team, I expected UM to have some problems. Also, the Gattis/Moorhead offense is fairly complex and takes a few games to be worked in. It's not time to panic yet, but if things don't improve quickly in their next game I am going to drop them big time.
On a side note, while watching the Army - Michigan game it was mentioned that UM hasn't won a B1G championship since 2004? I had no idea it had been that long. It made me think I have been overrating them for years due to their helmet status.
3. Maryland - They have had enough talent to compete with the big boys for awhile now. Unfortunately the depth isn't fully there yet. If they can stay healthy they could contend for the east.
4. Michigan State - Not quite sold on the offense, but I think this may be the best defense in the league.
5. Iowa - I actually think Rutgers may be better than last season, Iowa handled them anyway.
6. Wisconsin - Probably too low again...
7. Penn State - Defense struggled a bit, offense struggled for a half, youth & inexperience is real problem.
8. Nebraska - Ughhhh that was an epic collapse. Still, signs of improvement are there.
9. Northwestern - They would be lower, but I have come to expect more from the annual "most improved team in the B1G."
10. Minnesota
11. Purdue - Nice win
12. Indiana
13. Illinois - I think they may be too low on my list.
14. Rutgers
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Having missed the games this weekend for my annual golf trip into northern Michigan ( which was ruined a bit by me getting the flu for the first time in 20 years rrrgh), I had to watch some BTN football in 60 to get caught up.
By the way- it’s always fascinating to hear the scores and watch the games later- -they games are not how you think they will be. For example, Michigan was not as bad as I thought, and Ohio State was not as dominant as I thought.
Anyway, here goes; who I would bet $5 on if they played at a neutral site tomorrow
Wisconsin
Maryland
MSU
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Iowa
Purdue
Northwestern
Nebraska
Minnesota
Indiana
Illinois
Rutgers
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1. Ohio State - Opened up the play book a little, but still somewhat vanilla. Not sure is Cincy is a good as advertised, but we'll see.
2. Wisconsin - Looking good beating up on lesser competition, but are showing that they may be able to throw the ball downfield.
3. Michigan - Army will test many good teams. But it is concerning that UM's offense was not able to score more.
4. Penn State - Had some first half trouble with Buffalo, but got it together in the 2nd half.
5. Michigan State - Finally showed some offense against a bad team.
6. Maryland - Maybe should be higher. I figured that Syracuse was ranked way to high and the Terps showed it.
7. Iowa - Good win over a bad team
8. Northwestern - Bye week, not enough data
9. Indiana - They're 2-0.
10. Nebraska - Blew a good lead in the 4th qtr. Good teams don't do that.
11. Minnesota - Saved by the son of a former OSU great. :)
12. Illinois - Doing what they should against lesser competition.
13. Purdue - Hopefully Elijah Sindelar's shoulder will be ready for the next game after throwing the ball that much. Good win over an SEC Team.
14. Rutgers - Working hard to secure their spot at the bottom.
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1) Ohio State
2) Wisconsin
3) Maryland (?!?!)
4) Michigan State
5) Iowa
6) Penn State
7) Michigan
8) Minnesota
9) Nebraska
10) Northwestern
11) Purdue
12) Indiana
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
To me, 1&2 are on their own level, jury's still out on #3 but they've looked impressive so far, 4-7 are fairly interchangeable, 8-12 are jockeying for bowls, and 13-14 bring up the rear.
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I really think Illinois is starting to turn the corner. I'm no Lovie fan, but he's got an experienced and mature team now.
Last year, they lose that game to UCon.
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Illinois may be improved, but I think they need to win at least 5 games for Lovie to stick around another year. EMU isn't an automatic but it's a should-win. They don't have Rutgers or even Indiana from the East so it's hard for me to see them doing much better than 4-8 this year. The West has gotten tougher.
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They do get ________ this season, in Champaign, but not Indiana.
They also get UNL, UM, UW and NU at home. If they can somehow start 4-0, those apathetic fans will start showing up to games.
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I had to double-check that, and you're right. They do get RU at home so that's a likely win. So that's a good base of 4 wins. They go on the road for Purdue and Minn, and get Northwestern at home. I think they can go 1-2 against those guys.
So 5-7 is very possible for the Illini, anything more would be gravy.
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They do get ________ this season, in Champaign, but not Indiana.
They also get UNL, UM, UW and NU at home. If they can somehow start 4-0, those apathetic fans will start showing up to games.
LOL, you are sticking to your pledge about ______ ! I admire that!
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Out of curiosity, I can't seem to put my finger on UMD's sudden offensive explosiveness. It might be smoke and mirrors (putting nearly 80 on Howard isn't all that hard, and it's possible that Cuse may be taking a step back this year), but it's not like Coach Locks has a proven track record of coaching success. The Terps are rarely hurting for playmakers, but they always seem to have had a hard time getting out of their own way.
Did Locks get some new coordinators? Or is he taking more of a "hands off" approach and letting his assistant coaches do their thing? Whatever it is, they're looking good so far. It'd be interesting to see when they play a team with a good defense (and maybe Cuse still does).
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Out of curiosity, I can't seem to put my finger on UMD's sudden offensive explosiveness. It might be smoke and mirrors (putting nearly 80 on Howard isn't all that hard, and it's possible that Cuse may be taking a step back this year), but it's not like Coach Locks has a proven track record of coaching success. The Terps are rarely hurting for playmakers, but they always seem to have had a hard time getting out of their own way.
Did Locks get some new coordinators? Or is he taking more of a "hands off" approach and letting his assistant coaches do their thing? Whatever it is, they're looking good so far. It'd be interesting to see when they play a team with a good defense (and maybe Cuse still does).
It's because they have a legit quarterback for the first time in a while. I love me some CJ Brown and especially high school state champion wrestler Perry Hills (and who doesn't dig Piggy, the ultimate team player), but they weren't complete QBs. That's the single most important difference.
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Illinois may be improved, but I think they need to win at least 5 games for Lovie to stick around another year. EMU isn't an automatic but it's a should-win. They don't have Rutgers or even Indiana from the East so it's hard for me to see them doing much better than 4-8 this year. The West has gotten tougher.
They do get ________ this season, in Champaign, but not Indiana.
They also get UNL, UM, UW and NU at home. If they can somehow start 4-0, those apathetic fans will start showing up to games.
I was going to point out the same thing @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) pointed out, they do get Rutgers and at home, on November 2. That helps. In spite of that, Illinois has a tough schedule for a bottom-feeder because their next two easiest conference opponents (per last weeks Power Rankings) are #12 Purdue and #10 Minnesota and both of those games are on the road. They do get #8 Nebraska and #9 Northwestern at home but those might be too good of opponents for them to beat even at home. I don't know, those two haven't looked good so far.
Illinois' B1G schedule by last weeks Power Ranking:
- #2 Michigan, Home: Too tough, even at home
- #3 Wisconsin, Home: Too tough, even at home
- #5 Michigan State, Away: Probably too tough, especially on the road but with MSU's offensive woes you never know.
- #6 Iowa, Away: Too tough especially on the road.
- #8 Nebraska, Home: This will likely be a must-win for Illinois to go bowling.
- #9 Northwestern, Home: See above
- #10 Minnesota, Away: I'd like Illinois' chances a lot better against the Gophers at home.
- #12 Purdue, Away: I'd like Illinois' chances a lot better against the Boilermakers at home.
- #14 Rutgers, Home: Should win.
The Illini are 2-0 and should beat EMU this weekend. If they do, they'll only need three B1G wins to go bowling. The problem, as I see it, is that I only see one probable B1G win (Rutgers). Thus, they basically need to win two out of @UNL, @NU, vMN, vPU and I think that is a very tall order.
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On a side note, while watching the Army - Michigan game it was mentioned that UM hasn't won a B1G championship since 2004? I had no idea it had been that long. It made me think I have been overrating them for years due to their helmet status.
You have been, they are not really a helmet anymore, just living on reputation. There are High School Football players this year who were not yet born the last time Michigan won a Conference Title and only a few college seniors were alive the last time Michigan won an NC. ;)
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It's because they have a legit quarterback for the first time in a while. I love me some CJ Brown and especially high school state champion wrestler Perry Hills (and who doesn't dig Piggy, the ultimate team player), but they weren't complete QBs. That's the single most important difference.
Thank you for clarifying, I was wondering as well. I haven't done rankings yet and Maryland is tough to rank. At this point we are still early in the season so I try not to overreact too much to the first couple games but Maryland has looked like a B1G-E contender so far.
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I had to double-check that, and you're right. They do get RU at home so that's a likely win. So that's a good base of 4 wins. They go on the road for Purdue and Minn, and get Northwestern at home. I think they can go 1-2 against those guys.
So 5-7 is very possible for the Illini, anything more would be gravy.
Akron is horrible. In their other game so far they lost to UAB.
UCONN is horrible. In their other game so far they struggled with FCS Wagner.
EMU is horrible. In their two games so far they struggled with Coastal Carolina and lost to Kentucky.
Rutgers is horrible. We all know this.
I'm with you, they NEED five wins. Beating the four above teams simply doesn't prove anything and is something that any random guy hired to coach Illinois aught to do without breaking a sweat. IMHO, if they go 4-8 their coach should be fired because it would be difficult for the replacement to be worse.
They need a minimum of five wins because that is the minimum to have defeated at least one opponent with a pulse.
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Thank you for clarifying, I was wondering as well. I haven't done rankings yet and Maryland is tough to rank. At this point we are still early in the season so I try not to overreact too much to the first couple games but Maryland has looked like a B1G-E contender so far.
It's just my opinion, of course. Josh Jackson isn't going to win the Heisman, but he can do everything that a D1 team needs from the quarterback.
Let's see how they do at Temple; like one of the Iowa posters pointed out, the Terps have started out hot a few times recently and then faded away. Last year Temple came to College Park and beat the tar out of a 2-0 team. So I agree that it's too soon to annoint them as a contender.
It's nice to be in the rankings though; first time since Fall of 2013 (a one-week stay, ended by a 0-63 game at Florida State).
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13. Purdue - SEC SEC SEC
12. Illinois -
Did you mean the order in which you listed them:
Or did you mean the numbers you used:
?
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9. Northwestern - enjoy your rest
9. Indiana
Also, you have two #9's. Did you mean the order in which you listed them:
- #9 Northwestern
- #11 Indiana
Or did you mean something else?
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(https://oi142.photobucket.com/albums/r89/mcwups1/PowerRankings_zpsznzq8yue.png)
I did it this week, but could you kindly number your rankings in future weeks please? It makes it a lot easier for me to avoid errors when entering votes.
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Wisconsin
Maryland
MSU
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Iowa
Purdue
Northwestern
Nebraska
Minnesota
Indiana
Illinois
Rutgers
See my post to @mcwterps above, please kindly number your rankings in future weeks.
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See my post to @mcwterps above, please kindly number your rankings in future weeks.
You should probably request that ty not number his posts, eh?
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You should probably request that ty not number his posts, eh?
LoL. After this week it might be easier if he didn't.
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- Ohio State - 1,1 - Did pretty much what they were expected to do.
- Wisconsin - 4,3 - beating the snot out of bottom-feeders, we'll find out a lot more next game.
- Penn State - 3,4 - I'm not overly concerned about the slow first half, it happens.
- Michigan - 2,2 - I overlooked last week's sub-par performance but two in a row justifies moving them down.
- Maryland - 8,11 - I'm trying not to overreact so I moved them up another three spots.
- Iowa - 5,6 - Looking good, now don't screw up the CyHawk game!
- Michigan State - 7,9 - Still great D, one game of offensive competence against a MAC team is not enough to make me a believer.
- Minnesota - 13,10 - Solid win.
- Nebraska - 6,8 - We'll see.
- Northwestern - 9,7 - n/a
- Purdue - 10,5 - Nice bounce-back.
- Illinois - 11,13 - 2-0.
- Indiana - 12,12 - 2-0.
- Rutgers - 14,14 - Still Rutgers.
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Tougher this week...
1) Ohio State: until someone knocks them off.
2) Penn State: sure, it's two nobodies, but beat downs both weeks.
3) Wisconsin: also two nobodies, and two beat-down shutouts.
4) Michigan: I know Army can be a handful, but at home in double OT? Now the Michigan fans are really fretting. And will have ample opportunity to fix all of that when Blue visits Madison in two weeks.
5) Iowa: beating up on lowly conference mates who showed life last week. Solid.
6) Michigan State: found some offense.
7) Maryland? Really? I think so. Two very impressive performances--and Syracuse isn't supposed to suck. Maybe should be higher.
8) Northwestern: benefited by taking the week off?
9) Minnesota: wins are good and traveling to California isn't necessarily easy, even in Fresno.
10) Purdue: beating the SEC is nice. Still thinking about that loss last week.
11) Nebraska: ouch. That was worse than Purdue's collapse last week.
12) Illinois: wins are nice.
13) Indiana: yup, wins are nice.
14) Rutgers: losses aren't.
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Results posted, votes through @SFBadger96 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=51) .
Update on SoS/HFA:
It appears that the schedule strongly favors a tOSU/UW B1GCG. Looking at the rankings there is a BIG gap between #7 Iowa and #8 Minnesota. In fact #7 Iowa is closer to #3 UMD and almost as close to #2 UW as they are to #8 MN. Similarly, #8 MN is essentially tied with #9 NU and #10 UNL and the Gophers are closer to 13th than they are to 7th.
Looking just at the top-seven teams then (because if we are right then the B1G contenders shouldn't have any trouble with #8-14 anyway).
Among the top-7:
- #1 tOSU plays five of the other six missing #7 Iowa. Only one game is on the road (#5 M).
- #2 UW plays four of the other six missing #3 UMD and #4 PSU. Only one game is on the road (#1 tOSU).
- #3 UMD plays four of the other six missing #3 UW and #7 Iowa. Two of the four are on the road (#1 tOSU, #6 MSU).
- #4 PSU plays five of the other six missing #2 UW. Four of the five are on the road (#1 tOSU, #3 UMD, #6 MSU, #7 IA).
- #5 M plays the other six. Three of the six are on the road (#2 UW, #3 UMD, #4 PSU).
- #6 MSU plays five of the other six missing #7 Iowa. Three of the five are on the road (#1 tOSU, #2 UW, #5 M).
- #7 Iowa plays three of the other six missing #1 tOSU, #3 UMD, and #6 MSU. Two of the three are on the road (#2 UW, #5 M).
The Buckeyes and Badgers each only play one road game against a fellow top-half B1G team. The others play two (UMD, IA), three (M, MSU), or four (PSU) road games against teams currently ranked in the top-half of the B1G.
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Ok, I'll bite. I remember that you use some kind of formula but can't remember the details of how it works.
Maybe you can refresh my memory and explain how your formula could result in Minnesota at #2 and OSU at #6.
I don't recall exactly what mcw's methodology is, but I remember this comes up every year. The methodology is all over the map early in the season due to small sample size, but as we get through the season it gets better. But I like his approach as it at least gives a more objective ranking--whether his weighting of the various factors is right or wrong, it's definitely not groupthink.
I think of it as similar to the basketball RPI. Early in the season, there's SO much noise because of small sample size, but as you start getting into the meat of conference play, it converges to much more accurately represent each team's true strength.
In basketball, I think guys like Sagarin, KenPom, and Torvik build into the early season numbers some weight based upon a team's previous season, which fades as the new season matures. That tends to smooth out some of the "weird" results of a purely numbers-based approach. I don't think @mcwterps1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1590) has any sort of smoothing functions based on previous year's finish in his formula.
So, I usually view his rankings as an oddity until we start getting 5-6 weeks into the season, at which point the noise starts to diminish and you can look for areas perhaps where his ranking pushes teams above or below "conventional wisdom" and then try to figure out whether mcw is right or conventional wisdom is right.
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I got you Medina
My rankings are based on offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency , turnovers, strength of opponent, home or away bonus if they win.
It's the only way I can wrap my head around the "neutral field" question.
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Also, you have two #9's. Did you mean the order in which you listed them:
- #9 Northwestern
- #11 Indiana
Or did you mean something else?
Updated.
The order I had listed is what I want.
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Chicago doesn’t make sense on any level.
Yes, Rutgers blows. But we all know why Jim did it. Money grab. The NYC/NJ media market is largest in USA. He wanted the B1G to get a cut and a footprint in that market.
I hated the move as much as the next guy, but I can see his reasoning behind it.
And his moved backfired. They initially got into the media market at a greatly reduced rate, and have since been moved to a sports tier.
A quick google search and I'm not finding the numbers I want, so this is 5 year old foggy memory stuff.
The state of Ohio paid the most for BTN, 4.4 million subscribers at .80 cents each. (3.5 million a month)
[I think some smaller states may have paid more per subscriber, but Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Michigan were all lower per subscriber than Ohio.]
New York Media Market was a penitence, 6.9 million subscribers at .03 cents each. (just 200k a month)
After a couple years, Comcast went ahead and dropped the BTN network off 1st tier and put it on a sports tier, making it significantly less than the already paltry sum they were getting.
Again Don't quote my numbers as fact, but I think they are pretty close. And again were meant to show that Big Ten didn't get the New York Media Market.
Simple Fact Rutgers has not delivered the media market they promised. They have not used Big Ten Money to improve their lot in either Athletics or Academics. They are by far the weakest School in the Big Ten with in any metric used. ('cept maybe AAU membership over Nebraska I guess. But Rutgers gets to include their Medical Campus and Nebraska doesn't.)
EDIT: It was only Nebraska, that paid more per subscriber.
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You should probably request that ty not number his posts, eh?
Heh, Mine was a lazy copy and paste job I didn't finish editing. I'll do better in the future ... probably.
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1) Maryland - Best win so far
2) Wisconsin - Very impressive so far
3) Ohio State - 2 wins over possible bowl teams
4) Michigan - Army is a decent team, but gotta get things together soon
5) Penn State - A little shaky, but got things done
6) Michigan State - So far, so good. We'll see when they play someone
7) Iowa - Not sold yet. CyHawk time.
8) Minnesota - Miracle win, but a good one over a quality team
9) Nebraska - Can't move them lower yet, but I want to
10) Northwestern - Stanford doesn't look as forgivable now
11) Purdue - Remains unpredictable. New chaos team?
12) Indiana - Too early to say
13) Illinois - I'm tempted to move them higher, but need to see more
14) Rutgers - Did they really beat Michigan once?
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Try sticking around for awhile
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Try sticking around for awhile
Ditto.
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Really recently Mario,RoadDawg,Honest Buckeye and ABBA have all resurfaced.Watch Buckeye Rob and Bama Buckeye make a cameo
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do we need more Buckeyes?
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Really recently Mario,RoadDawg,Honest Buckeye and ABBA have all resurfaced.Watch Buckeye Rob and Bama Buckeye make a cameo
What you talkin about Willis? I have never left.
dont post as much but read it often. I find that even the mildest opinions are often attacked, so it is not as much fun. But- still here.
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14) Rutgers - Did they really beat Michigan once?
(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/.zbsf8QC8XKkiRQa4vk6lw--~A/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAwO2lsPXBsYW5l/http://media.zenfs.com/en_US/Sports/AP_NCAAF/201410042213800281245-p5.jpg)
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I don't really do rankings because I'm not informed enough to accurately judge other teams; however, the conference picture should be much more clear after week 5. Barring nail biting wins by the home team the Michigan/Wisconsin and Penn State/Maryland games should inform the relative strength of four of the early front runners. I'm sure my Wolverine counterparts agree that they wish this tilt was at home instead of on the road.
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- OHIO STATE (1) - yikes, and I thought Cincinnati might be the best Group of 5 team this year
- PENN STATE (3) - Buffalo had a lot of transfers, but still might be the most talented MAC team
- WISCONSIN (5) - won't learn anything for two weeks
- MICHIGAN (2) - being stimied by Army's offense is one thing, but Patterson looks totally lost out there
- IOWA (4) - a win in Ames probably moves them up a slot
- MARYLAND (8) - well, just in case the East wasn't scary enough
- MICHIGAN STATE (7) - it was just WMU, but the MSU offense looked awful against equally terrible defenses last year
- NORTHWESTERN (6) - just how much they struggled offensively against Stanford is far more concerning after seeing Stanford-USC
- MINNESOTA (9) - yeah, it was close, but Fresno State is really good, that was a MUCH tougher game
- NEBRASKA (10) - for all I had wrong, my continued skeptism about Nebraska's defense look warranted
- INDIANA (11) - haven't learned anything
- PURDUE (12) - watching Nevada get bludgeoned 77-6 can't have felt good
- ILLINOIS (13) - should not have scored just 7 points in the 2nd half against a pathetic UConn defense
- RUTGERS (14) - Rutgers just keeps piling up staggeringly bad passing lines the last couple years
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MICHIGAN STATE (7) - it was just WMU, but the MSU offense looked awful against equally terrible defenses last year
I think that this is a good and a fair point. Over on the offseason (now season) thread (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/2019-michigan-state-offseason-thread/14/) I compared MSU's offensive performances last season to the other teams that played their opponents and it was PATHETIC. For example:
- The 6 that MSU scored on Oregon was the worst any team did against the Ducks all year.
- The 6 that MSU scored on Nebraska was the worst any team did against the Cornhuskers all year.
- The 6 that MSU scored on Ohio State was tied for second worst any team did against the Buckeyes all year, better only than Rutgers.
- The 13 that MSU scored on Arizona State was the second worst any team did against the Sun Devils all year, only better than UTSA.
This year looks to be better so far:
- MSU scored 51 on WMU, the Broncosl other opponent only scored 13
- MSU scored 28 on Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane's other opponent only scored 16.
These numbers don't look great and it is only two games so I'm taking a wait-and-see approach for now but this looks substantially better than last year. Last year's MSU offense was worse than bad, it was comically incompetent. So far this year's version doesn't look great to me but it looks at least better.
The scary thing about MSU is that they don't need their offense to be world-beaters. They just need something resembling a decent offense to be right in the thick of the B1G-E race.
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- OHIO STATE (1) - yikes, and I thought Cincinnati might be the best Group of 5 team this year
Who to say they are still not the best Group of 5 team this year? ;D
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If Rutger ever leaves the Big Ten, it'll likely be because they self-demoted to FCS. We probably can't remove them forcefully if we wanted to, and I don't see any signs that even a few administrators want to, let alone a unified front willing to take on the deluge of lawsuits for the sake of sports.
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NEBRASKA (10) - for all I had wrong, my continued skeptism about Nebraska's defense look warranted
should have watched the first half!
:91:
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Busy week, getting in late:
Rank. Team (Preseason, Week 1, ...)
1. OSU (1,1)
2. Wisconsin (6,3)
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3. Michigan (2,2)
4. Iowa (5,6)
5. MSU (3,5)
6. PSU (4,4)
7. Maryland (11,9)
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8. Minnesota (7,8)
9. Nebraska (8,7)
10. Purdue (9,10)
11. Northwestern (10,11)
12. Illinois (13,12)
13. Indiana (12,13)
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14. Rutger (14,14)
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FYI:
I added in the votes of Abba, @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , and @@Anonymous Coward who voted after I posted the results. I am not posting a new results sheet but those votes are counted in the totals going forward.
There were no substantial changes. The exact order of #11-#13 changed pretty much with each new vote and is now:
- #11 Purdue
- #12 Indiana
- #13 Illinois
That said, these three teams are essentially tied for 11th-13th.
Also, Maryland and Penn State are now tied for 3rd/4th.
Ignoring the minor differences, our rankings basically show five tiers:
- Tier 1: tOSU, UW
- Tier 2: PSU, UMD, M, MSU, IA
- Tier 3: MN, NU, UNL
- Tier 4: PU, IU, IL
- Tier 5: RU
The maximum difference within a tier is from PSU/UMD to IA in tier-2 (1.32) while the minimum gap between two tiers is between the bottom of tier-3 and the top of tier-4 (1.52).
The biggest gap is between tier-2 and tier-3. With the exception of @mcwterps1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1590) , we are unanimously in agreement that tOSU, UW, UMD, PSU, M, MSU, and IA make up the top half of the conference while MN, NU, UNL, IU, PU, IL, and RU make up the bottom half.