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The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: rolltidefan on August 28, 2019, 10:43:27 AM
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breakdown your team/game, make some picks, get some convo going on this board.
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aTm vs texas state - snoozer win for aTm
ole miss @ memphis - ole miss with a 'shocker' win
uk vs toledo - uk wins, no one notices
msu vs la lafayette - msu wins, barely
ut vs ga state - tenn los... wins. :57:
usc @ unc - good game, usc wins
arky vs portland st - uh, arky?
uga @ vandy - uga wins both the attendance battle and game convincingly
lsu vs ga south - coach o eats a kid, lsu wins by default
auburn vs oregon - au balls out, wins easy
mizz @ wyoming - mizz but closer than it should be.
bama vs duke - tua puts up 500 yds passing with top 2 rbs out for first half, bama coasts.
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UT vs Georgia State Panthers
The win should be a given. However, UT is a mystery and certainly an enigma right now. Pruitt is in his second year, and team culture was looking better up until last week when the police were called on a starting DB for apparent stupidity....
yeah, i know- not fair to gauge off of one kids actions...
anyway, it's not that there is threat of loss, but the keys are going to be in 'how' they play. if they don't cover the spread (21pts) there are still issues atop that hill. it should be a walk in the park... a decent game speed scrimmage. I nice little exercise before they face BYU the following weekend, which is going to be tougher.
there have been plenty of transfer portal moves... UT just picked up a former 5 star michigan player this week. they picked up a decent QB last week or the one before... both cleared to play immediately.
man, the climb back to respect is a hard one.
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Georgia
Offense-
Strengths---
Quarterback- Jake Fromm enters his junior season and is the number 2 QB returning this year in terms of QB rating behind only Tua.
Offensive line could be the best in the country and there is depth.
Running Back--Swift, Herrien, Cook, White, McIntosh. We all know what Swift can do. Herrien could be a starter on alot of teams. Much has been made of the return of Zamir "Zues" White and the players are excited about what he can do. James Cook could have a breakout type of year. He's added good weight and will be a weapon in the passing game.
Weaknesses--
Quarterback depth. If Fromm goes down with an injury for any length of time it could spell trouble. Top backup is a short gunslinger type with a little experience. QB3 had surgery on his brain 60 days ago and is not yet cleared.
TE depth- Charlie Woerner should be one of the better TE's in the league this year, but behind him are John Fitzpatrick(rFr) and grad transfer Eli Wolf from Tennessee. The rest of the players are extremely green as far as in game snaps.
Unknowns
Offensive coordinator-Coach Coley takes over for the departing Jim Chaney who is now back at Tennessee for another go around. It'll be interesting to see what new nuances he brings to the offense. Hopefully, he brings more creativity to the offense. Word is we may see more hurry up, a little more passing, RB's more involved in passing game.
Wide Receiver---There is talent there, but it's unproven. Demetris Robertson should be poised for a breakout year. Newcomer George Pickens is going to be a stud at some point.
Defense
Strengths
Defensive Back- Even with Deandre Baker moving on to the NFL this should be a strength of the defense. This is a deep, talented group this year.
Outside Linebacker-Remember this name: Nolan Smith. Kid is going to be a stud. He may not start, but will play a ton. There is depth at this position.
Nose--Jordan Davis could become a household name this year. He was missing from the Sugar Bowl and it showed. When this guy is in UGA is a different defense.
Weaknesses--
DL Depth could be considered a weakness here. It's a veteran group, but the depth is very young.
Unknowns
Defensive coordinator-Dan Lanning takes over the defense, of course, Kirby will have his hands all over it.
Special teams
Strengths- 3 words-- Respect the Specs! Rodrigo Blankenship is one of the top kickers in the country. Big leg, accurate.
Unknowns
Who is going to return kicks and punts? A few names have been mentioned but we'll have to wait until game 1 to figure out who the mainstays will be as far as returners.
Week 1 game vs. Vanderbilt
On paper this should be a win going away for Georgia, but it's week 1 and it's on the road.
Vandy has a new QB, but they do have one of the better RB's in the SEC in Ke'Shawn Vaughn. They also have a few nice weapons in the passing game. I would expect that the defense will force Vandy to be one dimensional and look to confuse the young QB. I picked UGA to win going away something like 34 or 38 to 17.
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UGA opens against Vandy, and though i wouldn't suggest a loss- i DO think Vandy will press them more so than expected.
That Vandy TB is the complete package- suggesting the playcalling supports his abilities, it lends credit that vandy can be closer to 'mid season form' faster than teams with cobwebs to shake loose. UGA has new components to exercise with a new OC, who, if he has any sense, keeps the O steadily moving with high percentage passes and power runs. IF they get cute, they open the door for an upset.
I'm thinking Vandy has the capability of scoring 17~24 on UGA D... I'm thinking UGA has the capability of hanging 31~41 on Vandy, which would indicate from a vantage bereft of 'intangibles', Vandy on a good day scores 24 and UGA on a bad day scores 31 and takes the win.... but those damn intangibles favor Vandy, who has gained some swagger over the past few seasons and has always stiffened up against top teams (well... except for Bama... Bama crushed an overconfident Vandy after they ran their mouths the week prior)....
I imagine this game will end up in the 35-24 range in favor of UGA. I really don't think it will be an outright UGA route... every time i suggest that about UGA, though, they prove me wrong and go on a spree.
Point is, UGA won't see mid-season form until.... mid season. They will likely be in elite company when they reach it. And... Vandy isn't that bad a team, and IF they build on the backfield making those offensive calls, they can hang with UGA this early in the season.
bama will roll, BUT... Coach Cut has had all summer to prepare, and he's cagey. He perhaps has something planned for the youngish Bama secondary, and may score more than anyone expects.
I'm really fascinated with Auburn/Oregon. My sensibilities say Auburn, but i have a funny tickle about Oregon. I think this may be the best game of the week. we may even see OT.
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UGA opens against Vandy, and though i wouldn't suggest a loss- i DO think Vandy will press them more so than expected.
That Vandy TB is the complete package- suggesting the playcalling supports his abilities, it lends credit that vandy can be closer to 'mid season form' faster than teams with cobwebs to shake loose. UGA has new components to exercise with a new OC, who, if he has any sense, keeps the O steadily moving with high percentage passes and power runs. IF they get cute, they open the door for an upset.
I'm thinking Vandy has the capability of scoring 17~24 on UGA D... I'm thinking UGA has the capability of hanging 31~41 on Vandy, which would indicate from a vantage bereft of 'intangibles', Vandy on a good day scores 24 and UGA on a bad day scores 31 and takes the win.... but those damn intangibles favor Vandy, who has gained some swagger over the past few seasons and has always stiffened up against top teams (well... except for Bama... Bama crushed an overconfident Vandy after they ran their mouths the week prior)....
I imagine this game will end up in the 35-24 range in favor of UGA. I really don't think it will be an outright UGA route... every time i suggest that about UGA, though, they prove me wrong and go on a spree.
Point is, UGA won't see mid-season form until.... mid season. They will likely be in elite company when they reach it. And... Vandy isn't that bad a team, and IF they build on the backfield making those offensive calls, they can hang with UGA this early in the season.
bama will roll, BUT... Coach Cut has had all summer to prepare, and he's cagey. He perhaps has something planned for the youngish Bama secondary, and may score more than anyone expects.
I'm really fascinated with Auburn/Oregon. My sensibilities say Auburn, but i have a funny tickle about Oregon. I think this may be the best game of the week. we may even see OT.
Vandy also has a new O coordinator and a brand new QB whoever that may be. Rest assured UGA D will try and take away the run first and force the new unnamed QB to beat them. Can he is the question. Vandy's defense could be worse than last year's team that averaged giving up almost 200 yds per game on the ground and lost a ton in the secondary. Alot of experts are predicting Vandy to take a step back this year. Vaughn, Pinkney and Lipscomb are nice skill guys. Vaughn is maybe one of the most underrated backs in the country. But your intangibles comment is kind of a head scratcher to me. I don't think there is ANY evidence to say that one team will be in mid season form over the other.
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the mid season comment is based on the choreography that UGA traditionally relies on to add teeth to their bite. they can certainly power through, based on tendencies of HC-Smart, but they want to run plays on precise routing and timing. If this is the case with UGA this season, it'll be week three or four before we see what they are truly capable of. I expect by then they won't be an easy target for anyone, even in December...
vandy is vanilla as they come- especially breaking in new skilled positions... but... that vanilla lends well to instant production. i don't mean to suggest they will be 'mid season', but... they will be about as good in week one as they're going to get.
as usual, i have a helluva time expressing what i'm trying to say.
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aTm vs texas state - snoozer win for aTm
Not much to glean from this game, other than #12 will be aTm's highest ranking this year.
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My upset of the week...
UNC. 31. USC. 24.
UGA 47. Vandy 20.
Auburn 27. Oregon. 22.
UGA OL is going to open holes often for Swift and company. It won't be close.
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You rang?
Well, I'm not nearly as well versed on the preseason as normal but I'll throw out a few things:
Auburn - If Nix can stay healthy, I really like this team to have a big year. However, the schedule is so brutal, the upside seems limited. I do think they'll be significantly better than general expectations but might not be a really good team until a month into the season--which is ok given the schedule. The Oregon game is basically a litmus test for their identity and not much else (win or lose, it figures to have zero impact on any big goals for AU) so, I expect the bulk of this first game to be an effort to establish Nix as the true QB1.
Alabama - If the injury bug sticks around, it could be an issue as general attrition takes it toll over the season... As usual, they look solid in almost every facet of the game. Two caveats--I wouldn't be surprised if special teams costs them a lone game somewhere along the line and second, given the ending to last year, I'm not certain this team can really feel re-established until they get a late-season shot at redemption. But given the depth of talent, I can't see it creating any ID crises over the year.
Georgia - If this isn't their year... when will it be? Their offseason was pitch-perfect, including the noise from other schools. Barring injury, I think this is the Dawgs' best team in decades.
aTm - Is that Terry Bowden's offense? Sure looks like it. This team drops two heartbreakers but wins two shockers and throws the division into chaos.
Haven't really looked over anybody else... Just glad the best sport is back!
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I caught some of the UF-Miami game, and while I agree we shouldn't conclude too much based on an early game, it's the data we have. Neither team looked good. The one with the fewest mistakes came out on top. Both would lose to a good team playing decently with that level of play.
Franks did not look "comfortable" to me and made mistakes. This leads me to think UF is over rated, but more data are certainly in order.
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wheeee….. 16 freshmen on the two deep says it all. Young is the key word of the day for the Hogs. QB play should be better, running backs will be strong, if the Oline does even a little better than last year. Lost the only senior WR for the season, the rest? young.... TE should be good, if they are used in this scheme at all.
The word from the hill is the Defense will be salty, we'll see. Nobody is picking better than 6 wins and I think that is a little high. I do think CCM is building a solid foundation for a real contender, the last recruiting class was the best in years. Just wait till next year! :)
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You rang?
Well, I'm not nearly as well versed on the preseason as normal but I'll throw out a few things:
Auburn - If Nix can stay healthy, I really like this team to have a big year. However, the schedule is so brutal, the upside seems limited. I do think they'll be significantly better than general expectations but might not be a really good team until a month into the season--which is ok given the schedule. The Oregon game is basically a litmus test for their identity and not much else (win or lose, it figures to have zero impact on any big goals for AU) so, I expect the bulk of this first game to be an effort to establish Nix as the true QB1.
Alabama - If the injury bug sticks around, it could be an issue as general attrition takes it toll over the season... As usual, they look solid in almost every facet of the game. Two caveats--I wouldn't be surprised if special teams costs them a lone game somewhere along the line and second, given the ending to last year, I'm not certain this team can really feel re-established until they get a late-season shot at redemption. But given the depth of talent, I can't see it creating any ID crises over the year.
Georgia - If this isn't their year... when will it be? Their offseason was pitch-perfect, including the noise from other schools. Barring injury, I think this is the Dawgs' best team in decades.
aTm - Is that Terry Bowden's offense? Sure looks like it. This team drops two heartbreakers but wins two shockers and throws the division into chaos.
Haven't really looked over anybody else... Just glad the best sport is back!
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I agree, Eltigre. I said on the Big Ten board this is the best Dawg team of my lifetime and I'm 60 years old. We will see what happens with injuries (a Fromm injury takes us out of the conversation) but we have over half a dozen quality 5 stars that will not start. That has never happened at UGA. For the last couple of years, I have been saying we were still behind the Tide as far as depth goes but I believe this roster is just as deep as theirs. We will start to see tonight.
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UGa is one of those teams that I have always liked from afar ( the other ones being Auburn and Clemson ). I’d really like to see them get over that last “yard” and win it all. I think they are going to be in the mix again this year and it would be great if another SEC team not named Bama could win the CFP.
Auburn is a weird team. They swing back and forth between firing their coach and giving him a raise and extension. I never feel good about a team playing a true freshman at QB so I don’t give them much of a shot.
A&M could win 10+ or 8 and still be a really great team. I’m pegging us at 9 wins. I think we’ll know all we need by the time Bama rolls into town having already played Clemson, Auburn, and Arkansas.
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I guess I should have given thought to the Tennessee game hosting Georgia State, and Arkansas hosting Portland State.
Holy Cow.
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Tennessee losing now 21-17 to a 2-10 team last year. Not a good look for the Vols even if they win.
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Gas scores again.
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34-23 Georgia State ahead, pat coming. The Vols are dead.
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UNC ahead late, got the score wrong. Good call.
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UNC botches running out the clock.
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Can Auburn come back?
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The can, and did, rather miraculously really. I didn't watch much of the game but don't think Auburn is better than Oregon.
I thought the Vols would find "something" and manage to edge GS. Nope. That team has psyche issues still, worse now than before the game. They might mail it in, Pruitt may have to just play youngsters and build for the future. The seniors are not a happy group at all. Nor are their fans.
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So, what did we learn, if anything, from Week One versus our preseason expectations? I'd say most met expectations, but some obviously looked worse.
Nobody looked better than I expected. Arkansas is a mess, as is Tennessee, who obviously looked worse losing a "gimme game". UK is clearly a step back from last year and Ole Miss is not good either. Mizzou is a shocker also in a bad way. I thought they could be 8-0. The lower part of the SEC looked pretty bad really.
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I have a different take on Mizzou. First, I don't see why so many people were so high on them in the first place. Kelly Bryant isn't some great QB. Sure, he's probably better than whoever else Mizzou has, but he was the weak link on Clemson's team. Mizzou isn't bad, but they were never going 8-0 in conference play, either. A good, solid 5-3 or something made more sense to me.
Secondly, losing at Wyoming isn't as bad as it looks. It's the highest FBS stadium in elevation, so the Cowboys automatically have a cardio advantage over anyone who they host. A good Texas team almost lost or did lose (I forget) up in Laramie to start a season a few years back.
So at the same time, I was both lower on Mizzou than most, but also don't count the Wyoming loss that harshly against them.
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For the conference as a whole:
Good wins: vs Oregon, vs Miami
Bad losses: vs GA State, @ Wyoming
Normal wins: vs Duke, vs Toledo
Uninspiring wins: vs Louisiana, vs Portland St.
Normal losses: N.Carolina, Memphis
Impressive win, but not a quality win: vs GA Southern
*Georgia beat Vandy up, which I would consider a "normal win" for UGA and a "normal loss" for Vandy - about what was expected.
LSU holding GA Southern to a FG is impressive. Their option attack routinely puts points on the board vs anyone, even in big losses. Was anyone surprised Ole Miss lost? I wasn't. Memphis has a decent program and Ole Miss is the same Ole Miss, without its cheating, 5* players. MSU probably disappointed a lot of people in their win.
All of this is based on a sample size of one game, and a team or two that did well will still fall short of preseason expectations, and conversely, a couple of teams that were underwhelming in week 1 will surpass their expectations by season's end. Thus is the world of 21 year olds in a pressure cooker.
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my internet is back.... likely going to lose it again if this storm hits...
speaking of storms- Auburn stormed back! I like that they kept fighting, and i think Nix is the real deal. UT- uh... wow. that QB is terrible... he hasn't improved even a little since he's been there. i knew Coach Pruitt had a job to do, but.... that is just astounding. he'll be lucky to make it until November, now, and unless he knocks off at least two teams not favored, he better pack his bags.
Mizzou? Is that you?
UGA- that is def you.
That xfer portal... i wager it's about to light up with UT players and in their arrogance under the belief they'll be better somewhere else.
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How are UGA fans feeling about Eason doing well in game 1 for Warshington? Good for him? Who cares?
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Unfortunately for UTenn I think they haven't hit bottom yet. They remind me so much of A&M under Fran/Sherman. We lost to Ark St under Sherman and Fran nearly got beat by Army, Fresno, a host of other FCS teams while managing to get plastered 77-0 by OU who was falling down in the 3rd quarter just to run out the clock. I really think the team has already quit under Pruitt.
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How are UGA fans feeling about Eason doing well in game 1 for Warshington? Good for him? Who cares?
I'm happy for him personally, same with Fields. They were both very talented players obviously and deserve their shot. Neither said anything bad about UGA.
Fields had some wide open WRs to hit, and he hit them. I knew he could throw a nice pass. Eason has NFL potential in every respect. I'm still somewhat surprised that boring ol' Fromm could bench them both.
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Fromm reminds me of AJ McCarron's 2-year stint as Bama's starter. Year 1, don't screw up, be efficient...and both did. Year 2, okay, we'll let you go win a few games for us, but be as efficient....and both did. However, we get to see what Fromm can do in a 3rd year as starter.
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He's not flashy obviously, and flashy "sells". He somehow beat out two flashier QBs who are now starting elsewhere at programs in the hunt.
I have seen his draft status all over the place, to the extent that matters beyond a curiosity. With the OL and RBs they have, a half decent QB should be able to do pretty well.
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Right, any one of us could be passable at QB with RBs averaging 6+ yards per carry.
But UGA has been Smart - they could have easily messed things up and put Eason back in or let Fields take over...but they didn't mess with what's worked. So many times, when things are working, teams throw a wrench (albeit talented wrenches) in their own cogs and muck things up.
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what else is there to say besides the sec (at least the bottom half) took one on the chin this weekend.
au with a good comeback win, but it also highlighted a lot of areas for much needed improvement.
bama sluggish, but found rythm quickly.
didn't catch much of uga/vandy, but heard uga looked great early, then coasted.
didn't catch aTm or lsu either. scoreline looks about right, though.
tenn... lol.
usc disappointed, imo.
ole miss definitely disappointed. blew that one.
mizzou, i didn't buy them as a great team, but i expected them to at least beat wyoming. wyoming isn't a gimme, but still.
arky/msu/uf/uk all won, but unconvincingly.
overall, uga is still clear fav in east. in west, bama is there, with lsu/aTm/au looming. we'll know soon enough for aTm.
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How are UGA fans feeling about Eason doing well in game 1 for Warshington? Good for him? Who cares?
I'm happy for Eason, he was a good teammate and handled things the right way after his injury and losing his starting spot. Hope he continues to light it up out there at Washington and goes on to make millions in the NFL.
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Right, any one of us could be passable at QB with RBs averaging 6+ yards per carry.
But UGA has been Smart - they could have easily messed things up and put Eason back in or let Fields take over...but they didn't mess with what's worked. So many times, when things are working, teams throw a wrench (albeit talented wrenches) in their own cogs and muck things up.
UGA's offense isn't built necessarily for Fromm to have to throw the ball 30-40 times. Fromm isn't flashy, but he does put us in plays that give us the best chance at success. Takes care of the ball and is a good leader. Not to say Eason wasn't or Fields wouldn't have been. Fields belongs in a spread offense like he is now. He did and by all accounts was going to struggle with the complexities of a Pro style offense.
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The Dawgs offense looked awesome for the first three series, nearly all running plays for 7-8-9 yards a clip. I think at that point they decided to "work on things". They started misfiring a bit, got behind the sticks and kicked three FGs, which isn't the end of the world. They had two nice long passes called back on a phantom holding penalty and a fumble at the end. Of course, we're talking Vandy, but UGA did about what I expected. They should be able to line up and blow lesser opponents off the ball and run effectively, whether they can do that with good defenses is yet to be seen, I suspect not.
They had some penalties on defense that hurt, some were dumb and some were just enthusiasm and later hits OB. Being on the road in a hostile environment didn't happen.
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Teams that looked better than expected:
Nobody, I think.
Teams that looked worse than expected:
Mizzou, Tenn
Teams that showed some possible red flags:
Florida, Miss State, USCe, Arkansas