CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Anonymous Coward on July 13, 2017, 06:46:44 PM
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I tend to consider a lot of B.C.'s stuff to be appointment reading. Now that his school-by-school intros are done, he's compiling them into conference outlooks and power rankings. His Big Ten version is fresh off the modem.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/7/10/15932520/big-ten-football-2017-power-rankings-ohio-state (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/7/10/15932520/big-ten-football-2017-power-rankings-ohio-state)
(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lqIc9lD9KlYTiR8J8WHclc9qXcQ=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8814395/Untitled.png)
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His Michigan preview:
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/7/7/15910358/michigan-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster-jim-harbaugh (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/7/7/15910358/michigan-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster-jim-harbaugh)
Fair and thorough. It also gave us a chance to remember that Don Brown is a good guy to hire for the job he is best at:
(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EShOOvgLMQPnpIul2bCon6duiAw=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8786875/MichiganDefRadar.png)
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Also, buried in these reminders of last year I was surprised how much Spartan hope I found. If we ignore the offseason from hell, I'd look at these graphs and scratch my head wondering why they finished at the bottom rather than the middle of the conference. My fading memories of last year have me guessing that they were actually a medium-level team that concentrated nearly all of its boneheaded plays into a few worst-possible moments, rather than spreading them out so they'd impact the season less. This adds circumstantial fuel to the "lockerroom cancer" hypothesis.
(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IGHTbKnWMG6nEE-wa-L8kE2RhAY=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8811883/BigTen2016.png)
(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PE6otgW5V5JrR-Ryzxvi7jJyNm8=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8811887/BigTenDefense.png)
(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/LuLbC_HiJR-ocRSeeT3LgGjP2ps=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8811885/BigTenOffense.png)
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So everyone except Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota are expected to be better than last year? As measured by S&P+, at least?
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I think so. With Maryland up and Michigan down being the highest-magnitude movers.
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I'm lost on images. I clicked "Add image to post" and a window popped up. I dragged dude (annonymous coward)'s image into that window and it showed up there. Now what? How do I get it here?
Looking at those rankings, here is what I see:
Four really good teams (tOSU, PSU, M, UW).
BIG GAP
Six good-but-not-great teams (NU, IU, UNL, MSU, IA).
BIG GAP
Four bad teams (UMD, ILL, PU, RU).
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Click on the Insert Image button above and you get something like this:
[img][img] with your cursor in the middle.
To post I just drag an image from a web page between the [img] "bookends."
I'm lost on images. I clicked "Add image to post" and a window popped up. I dragged dude (annonymous coward)'s image into that window and it showed up there. Now what? How do I get it here?
Looking at those rankings, here is what I see:
Four really good teams (tOSU, PSU, M, UW).
BIG GAP
Six good-but-not-great teams (NU, IU, UNL, MSU, IA).
BIG GAP
Four bad teams (UMD, ILL, PU, RU).
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Click on the Insert Image button above and you get something like this:
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Bimg%5D%26nbsp%3B+%26nbsp%3B+with+your+cursor+in+the+middle.%26nbsp%3B+%3Cbr+%2F%3E%3Cbr+%2F%3E%3Cbr+%2F%3ETo+post+I+just+drag+an+image+from+a+web+page+between+the+%5Bimg%5D+%26quot%3Bbookends.%26quot%3B%3Cbr+%2F%3E%5B%2Fquote%5D%3Cbr+%2F%3E%3Cbr+%2F%3Etestes%2C+testes+1+.+.+.2+.+.+.3%3Cbr+%2F%3E%5Bimg%5Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fcdn.vox-cdn.com%2Fthumbor%2FlqIc9lD9KlYTiR8J8WHclc9qXcQ%3D%2F800x0%2Ffilters%3Ano_upscale%28%29%2Fcdn.vox-cdn.com%2Fuploads%2Fchorus_asset%2Ffile%2F8814395%2FUntitled.png&hash=946b2a2251366af262981dd67481d641)
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I'm sure it is just operator error, but I found the "Insert Image button" above as opposed to the "Add Image" text below and I tried exactly what you said. I dragged the image into the spot between the bookends and . . . nothing happened.
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Am I the only one who thinks Michigan is going to be way better than most predict? I know they lost a lot, but it's not like the cupboards are bare.
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Click on the Insert Image button above and you get something like this:
[img][img] with your cursor in the middle.
That's right. Or at least that's what worked for me. My inserted images were offline, and I didn't drag (like at the last site) or upload a picture (as I'm told we can now do off our desktop). I just copy/pasted the URL to the image in between those brackets and 'presto!'
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Am I the only one who thinks Michigan is going to be way better than most predict? I know they lost a lot, but it's not like the cupboards are bare.
This is a fun year, because there's a wealth of young talent and basically zero expectations. It won't have a NC-type ceiling, but Michigan will be in the mix.
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Am I the only one who thinks Michigan is going to be way better than most predict? I know they lost a lot, but it's not like the cupboards are bare.
The problem is two-fold. 1) Michigan does not just lose a lot. They lose freakin' EVERYBODY. Last year's team was senior laden not only in the starters but in many of the back-ups too. 2) Their schedule is a lot harder this year. Last year, 7 of their first 9 games were at home with the road games being @Rutgers and @MSU (which admittedly we did not know how badly they were going to suck last year, but the end result is still the point). This year, they start off with a neutral game with Florida (in Texas), along with games @Maryland, @PSU, & @Wisconsin, along with the annual slugfest with OSU.
They are still going to be decent to very good, but it's looking a lot more like an 7-8 win year versus a 10 win year.
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If 7 or 8 is the national expectation, this should be even more fun than I was thinking. :- )
Meanwhile, I think you understate what returns. I'm not waxing about unproven recruits. There was a large mass of high performing, high snap count back-ups who return. I mean...Rashan Gary, Mo Hurst, Bryan Mone, and Winovich, as examples, were technically back-ups. That's insane.
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If 7 or 8 is the national expectation, this should be even more fun than I was thinking. :- )
Meanwhile, I think you understate what returns. I'm not waxing about unproven recruits. There was a large mass of high performing, high snap count back-ups who return. I mean...Rashan Gary, Mo Hurst, Bryan Mone, and Winovich, as examples, were technically back-ups. That's insane.
I think seven or eight is too low but we'll see. One thing that I think helps Michigan immensely is that two of their four likely toughest games are the last two weeks of the regular season. Their young and green new starters will not be so young and green by the time they play Wisconsin and Ohio State in late November.
If the Wolverines were playing UF, PSU, UW, and tOSU in the first four weeks I would expect them to do no better than 2-2 and probably 1-3 or 0-4.
As it is, I expect Michigan to lose between two and four games so my prediction would be anywhere from 8-4 up to 10-2 with 9-3 as the figure I would pick if forced to commit to a prediction of record.
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That's exactly how I see it.
Florida is an fascinating first opponent for this particular season. Neither team is likely to be its best out the gate, probably overrated as far as Week 1 power is concerned**, and the winner is likely to get some brownie points it doesn't deserve. If Michigan wins that, it is highly likely to go to Beaver Stadium at 6-0.
It wouldn't be a very strong 6-0; however, the team should probably change a lot over those six weeks, and should be getting closer to its version of peak form.
**(though the preseason rankings seem off for both Michigan and Florida in week one power, I think they look good in terms of potential across the full season)
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It is an interesting first game for both the Gators and the Wolverines. Michigan's defense will have 11 new starters but if Florida's offense isn't any better than it was last year that really shouldn't matter much.
Both teams will have a lot of new starters and this is a game that could be crucial depending on how things go down the road. So far in the playoff era a single loss hasn't been decisive for any P5 team so long as that loss did not prevent them from winning an undisputed league title. However, no 2-loss team has made the playoffs. Thus, the loser of the UF/M game has literally zero margin for error.
If Michigan wins the Flordia game, avoids upsets, and goes 2-1 through their other toughest games of @PSU, @UW, vtOSU then they should be a playoff contender but if they lose the Florida game then they would probably have to go undefeated the rest of the way.
The other thing that makes this interesting is that the winning team could end up sputtering and that would look really bad for the winner. It isn't impossible to imagine the UF/M winner going 7-5 while the loser goes 10-2. That would look really bad for the losing team's conference.
On the subject of Florida I really don't know what to expect. They have an odd schedule. They have a ton of tough looking opponents but almost all are at home and none are true road games. Florida's schedule:
- 7 home games (No. Colorado, UT, Vandy, LSU, aTm, UAB, FSU)
- 2 neutral games (Michigan in Dallas, Georgia in Jacksonville WLOCP)
- 3 road games (UK, Mizzou, USCe)
It is a tough schedule but at the same time that is probably the easiest road slate of any P5 team in the country.
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I'm sure the coaches are using different motivational words with the team, but nearly zero-point-zero Michigan fans are even hypothesizing about M in the CFP for 2018. Not in the cards. It's not the right year.
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Big Ten favorites since 2011
Here are the past six Big Ten preaseason favorites — as predicted in the annual Cleveland.com Big Ten media poll — as well as the team that actually took home the trophy.
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2016
Preseason favorite: Ohio State
Actual champion: Penn State
2015
Preseason favorite: Ohio State
Actual champion: Michigan State
2014
Preseason: Michigan State
Actual: Ohio State
2013
Preseason: Ohio State
Actual: Michigan State
2012
Preseason: Michigan
Actual: Wisconsin
2011
Preseason: Nebraska
Actual: Wisconsin
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Cleveland.com has to be the only site to go 0-for-6 over that stretch.
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Cleveland.com has to be the only site to go 0-for-6 over that stretch.
I mean, they don't pick it exactly. They just poll media members because the conference doesn't do one. Same as the SEC or ACC.
More interesting is how each happened. OSU was the pick three of four years and fell short. The only time they weren't was because everyone got really high on MSU, and that didn't change until OSU threw all over MSU late in the year.
Wisconsin's 2012 title was so dumb, it was basically unpredictable. 2011 was basically a big what if until Wilson showed he could burn the world down (and even that was tight).
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I'll take 8th