CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on August 22, 2019, 08:47:35 AM
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Just a quick update on where the votes are so far:
- 1.72 Michigan Range 1-3
- 1.78 Ohio State Range 1-5
- 4.89 Penn State Range 3-9
- 5.06 Michigan State Range 3-10
- 5.89 Wisconsin Range 2-10
- 5.89 Iowa Range 2-11
- 6.72 Nebraska Range 1-10
- 7.11 Northwestern Range 3-11
- 7.50 Minnesota Range 4-10
- 9.11 Purdue Range 5-11
- 10.83 Maryland Range 8-13
- 11.56 Indiana Range 10-12
- 13.00 Illinois Range 12-14
- 13.94 Rutgers Range 13-14
On First Place: Michigan and Ohio State are thisclose together. I think half of the new votes have caused these two to swap. Michigan currently leads but when I drop the high and low Ohio State will take over because Michigan is only up by one point and Ohio State has lower low votes (5th vs 3rd).
While there is a LOT of debate about the order, nearly all of us agree that the Wolverines and Buckeyes are the top two. Out of 18 voters so far, only three do not have both of those two teams in their top-2.
There is almost no debate at the bottom. 17 of 18 voters have Rutgers last and the other voter has them 13th. There is almost as much unanimity regarding Illinois. 16 of 18 of us have them 13th with the other two votes for 12th and 14th. We are also pretty much agreed on Indiana. 12 of 18 voters have them 12th with the other six all ranking them 10th or 11th.
Outside of the top two and bottom three where there is a pretty strong consensus, we seem to be very unsure. The other nine teams all have voting ranges of at least five (Maryland, 8-13) and as many as nine (Iowa 2-11 and UNL 1-10).
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan State
5. Penn State
6. Northwestern
7. Nebraska
8. Iowa
9. Minnesota
10. Indiana
11. Purdue
12. Maryland
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
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Taking a complete shot in the dark:
1) Ohio State
2) Michigan
3) Michigan State
4) Penn State
5) Wisconsin
6) Northwestern
7) Iowa
8) Nebraska
9) Minnesota
10) Purdue
11) Maryland
12) Indiana
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
The East has 4 teams that range from very good to potentially great, and 3 teams that would be happy just to make it to the postseason
The West doesn't seem to have an obvious killer, but has 6 legitimate contenders to go to Indy in December.
I'm sort of giving Brutus and Bucky the benefit of the doubt because they've been there several times, even though both seem to have some unknowns going into the season.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2019/08/106056/the-five-most-dangerous-defenders-ohio-state-will-face-this-year
For consideration.
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- Ohio State - There are obviously a lot of question marks but this team has recruited better than any of the others over the past five years and they are two-time defending B1G Champions and seven-time defending Divisional Champions. At this point I think they are #1 by default until either they look really shaky or someone else looks really good.
- Michigan - The last couple games of last season the Wolverines looked lost but maybe those issues can be readily solved. If so, they could move to #1.
- Wisconsin - Until I see something to make me think otherwise I assume that UW will be the best in the B1G-W.
- Penn State - There are questions marks here too but I think that #4 is not unreasonable.
- Purdue - The Boilermakers have a rough schedule so even if they are the fifth best team in the league their final ranking may not look like it.
- Iowa - Can the Hawkeyes get back to Indy?
- Northwestern - They have a good thing going in Evanston.
- Nebraska - How will Scott Frost's second year shake out?
- Michigan State - This is the only team in the league that I believe is fully capable of both beating Ohio State or Michigan and losing to Rutgers or Illinois. They have done nothing substantial to fix their offensive issues so I expect the offense to be so comically inept that they just might lose 3-0 to Rutgers and the typically elite defense means that they just might beat tOSU or M 14-10.
- Minnesota - How will the Gophers fare this year?
- Maryland - If the Terps can avoid the injury bug that bit them last year maybe they'll be better than this?
- Indiana - For some reason the Hoosiers just always seem to look like they are a year or two away but then a year or two later they still look a year or two away.
- Illinois - Will there be decent football in Champaign anytime soon?
- Rutgers - The inverse of Ohio State, #14 until proven otherwise.
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Best guess to start:
Michigan
Wisconsin
Penn State
MSU
Ohio state
Northwestern
Nebraska
Maryland
Iowa
Minnesota
Purdue
Indiana
Illinois
Rutgers
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Penn State
4. Michigan State
5. Northwestern
6. Iowa
7. Nebraska
8. Maryland
9. Minnesota
10. Wisconsin
11. Purdue
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutger
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Sandbagging?
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Nebraska
Wisconsin
Michigan
Minnesota
Ohio State
MSU
NW
Purdue
PSU
Maryland
Iowa
Indiana
Illinois
Rutger
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Best guess to start:
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Penn State
- MSU
- Ohio state
- Northwestern
- Nebraska
- Maryland
- Iowa
- Minnesota
- Purdue
- Indiana
- Illinois
- Rutgers
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Penn State
4. Michigan State
5. Northwestern
6. Iowa
7. Nebraska
8. Maryland
9. Minnesota
10. Wisconsin
11. Purdue
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutger
I just want to point out for anyone who thinks these votes are typically biased in FAVOR of the voter's team, usually the opposite is the case. HonestB is an Ohio State fan who has the Buckeyes 5th. Everybody else (a Michigan fan, an Iowa fan, a Wisconsin fan, and another tOSU fan) so far has tOSU at #1.
847badgerfan is obviously a Badger fan and he has his Badgers #10. The other voters so far have them:
- #2 by a tOSU fan
- #3 by a Michigan and a tOSU fan
- #5 by an Iowa fan
With only a few rare exceptions I see a LOT more "sandbagging" in these rankings than the stereotypical kool-aid drinking "my team is #1" that you might expect.
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Sandbagging?
Hello Pot, this is the Kettle . . .
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Nebraska
Wisconsin
Michigan
Minnesota
Ohio State
MSU
NW
Purdue
PSU
Maryland
Iowa
Indiana
Illinois
Rutger
Your guess is as good as mine, but I'd personally pump the brakes on the Nebraska hype train. They'll be improved, but I think they're a year away from being serious B1G contenders (though they should be in the mix for the West this year).
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Hello Pot, this is the Kettle . . .
I predict Ohio State will lose- hard fought games/ to each of those teams I have in front of them and possibly to the two teams I have rank behind them.
I think people are underestimating the level of change that has occurred in Columbus but in the long run I do think Day will prove to be a fantastic coach
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- OHIO STATE - if Haskins had returned, no brainer, but Fields still gives me some pause
- MICHIGAN - defense probably takes a half step back, but if Charbonnet is ready out of the gate, oh boy, that offense!
- PENN STATE - more overall talent than last year...except at QB, so how much does that matter
- IOWA - the early NFL defections keep this from being a REALLY special year in Iowa City
- WISCONSIN - testament to the program that i still have them this high with so little returning
- NORTHWESTERN - at least their traditional slow start is forgiveable when you have Stanford, MSU, UW, Nebraska, OSU, Iowa in your first seven games
- MICHIGAN STATE - I fail to see much difference from last year, other than better health luck, because the depth chart remains thin
- MINNESOTA - Fleck might be slowly changing my mind
- PURDUE - passing game should be lights out, but still probably a year away on defense, and thin in the running game
- NEBRASKA - I'm lower than everyone on them, but 4-10 is so closely bunched that the defense even slightly exceeding my expectations could send them to Indy
- INDIANA - QB competition is very interesting, Ramsey simply isn't developing
- MARYLAND - Locksley will certainly upgrade the talent going forward, what he does with it going forward is the question
- ILLINOIS - with Canada gone from College Park, Illini might have my favorite offense to watch in the conference
- RUTGERS - crazy fact, John McNulty becomes the first second year Rutgers OC since...well, himself, from 2004-2008
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I have no favorites here, so I'm not sand bagging. I might be slightly trolling though.
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- OHIO STATE - if Haskins had returned, no brainer, but Fields still gives me some pause
- MICHIGAN - defense probably takes a half step back, but if Charbonnet is ready out of the gate, oh boy, that offense!
- PENN STATE - more overall talent than last year...except at QB, so how much does that matter
- IOWA - the early NFL defections keep this from being a REALLY special year in Iowa City
- WISCONSIN - testament to the program that i still have them this high with so little returning
- NORTHWESTERN - at least their traditional slow start is forgiveable when you have Stanford, MSU, UW, Nebraska, OSU, Iowa in your first seven games
- MICHIGAN STATE - I fail to see much difference from last year, other than better health luck, because the depth chart remains thin
- MINNESOTA - Fleck might be slowly changing my mind
- PURDUE - passing game should be lights out, but still probably a year away on defense, and thin in the running game
- NEBRASKA - I'm lower than everyone on them, but 4-10 is so closely bunched that the defense even slightly exceeding my expectations could send them to Indy
- INDIANA - QB competition is very interesting, Ramsey simply isn't developing
- MARYLAND - Locksley will certainly upgrade the talent going forward, what he does with it going forward is the question
- ILLINOIS - with Canada gone from College Park, Illini might have my favorite offense to watch in the conference
- RUTGERS - crazy fact, John McNulty becomes the first second year Rutgers OC since...well, himself, from 2004-2008
Iowa reloads at TE, so that's actually not a huge concern. While Fant and Hock obviously will be missed, Beyer and Wieting should be plenty competent. I fully expect some improvement in RB and (especially) WR production.
The biggest concerns besides that are punting and defensive line depth. If the DL stays healthy, going to Indy is certainly attainable.
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1. Michigan: Has question marks, but maybe the fewest question marks of the bunch. Defense lost a lot but silly to expect them to be bad on defense. Seems like worse case is 2017 level "really good" there. Offense the question is obviously how the new look goes, but it probably ain't getting worse than what they were last year and should likely be a lot more explosive.
2. Ohio State: Loads of talent, loads of questions. New head coach - total mystery. New defensive coaching staff - less of a mystery on what they will try to do but a big question on whether they will be able to do it. New quarterback who only has had limited playing time with a different team. New OL. So we'll see. There is a sense that I could coach this team to 10-2, so anything less than that would be disappointing.
3. Michigan State: Kind of difficult team to judge. Outstanding defense and putrid offense last year. Dantonio reshuffled the deck, but like throwing a dart in the ocean as to what that will mean. They have a good roster, the defense should be strong, and if they have a functional offense they should be a very tough out.
4. Penn State: Kind of like OSU - lots of talent, but a lot of new faces and a lot of questions on what they are doing and whether they can do it. I'm bearish on the offense, but they should be good enough to 9-3ish and certainly have the talent to do better than that.
Here comes the B1GW
5. Minnesota: Hey, I don't know. Fleck has a good history, they had a few guys who looked like real players, and so to the extent I have to pick a team to be five I'm picking them.
6. Nebraska: The Scott Frost Experience is here, and Nebraskans certainly hoping for the year 2 UCF had.
7. Wisconsin: How could I honestly put them any lower? If they get their passing game figured out they could be a very good team.
8. Iowa: It's Iowa. They could be good, or average, and probably not worse than that.
9. Northwestern: Only to the extent that the football might bounce a little harder for them this year.
10. Purdue: Again, could be good, but lots of youth and a grinder of a division.
11. Maryland: Not really sold on the Locks.
12. Indiana: Sneaky sort of team that might be a tough out if their offense gets it together.
13. Illinois: Quietly improving their roster, but are they any good.
14. Rutgers: Someone is always last.
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1. OSU
2. Michigan
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3. MSU
4. PSU
5. Iowa
6. Wisconsin
7. Minnesota
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8. Nebraska
9. Purdue
10. Northwestern
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11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutger
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Iowa reloads at TE, so that's actually not a huge concern. While Fant and Hock obviously will be missed, Beyer and Wieting should be plenty competent. I fully expect some improvement in RB and (especially) WR production.
The biggest concerns besides that are punting and defensive line depth. If the DL stays healthy, going to Indy is certainly attainable.
Yeah, but I think at the end of my 2018 countdown, when I do the WAY, WAY, WAY too early top 25 for the following year I had Iowa top 5 nationally. I still have them top 20, and the best team in the West, but I thought the were primed for their best team since 2002
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It's just as well that you didn't. Iowa's not the best at living up to lofty expectations.
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I don't know what's crazier -- that just before signing day Michigan flipped Alaric Jackson but afterward Drevno got cold feet about sending him an LOI or that despite many calling him the Big Ten's best OT, he might not even be Iowa's best OT.
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It's just as well that you didn't. Iowa's not the best at living up to lofty expectations.
IIRC I had both Michigan and Iowa in my preseason Top 5 in the first one of those I ever did (2005).
It wasn't way out of line, the Preseason AP Poll had Michigan #4 and Iowa #11.
Both teams got upset the 2nd game of the season, and both finished unranked at 7-5. That'll humble you in a hurry trying to do a preseason ranking.
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1. OSU
2. Michigan
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3. PSU
4. MSU
5. Iowa
6. Wisconsin
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7. Nebraska
8. Northwestern
9. Minnesota
10.Purdue
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11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutger
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1. Michigan - This should be Michigan's best offense since at least 2010 and possibly even 2006 or 2003. The defense won't be as good as it as been but still certainly good enough, especially with so many opponents with inexperienced and/or mediocre-at-best QBs.
2. Ohio State - I think this is the year they finally fall off but still probably win 10 games. Not sold on Fields based on what I saw last year.
3. Iowa - I honestly don't know what to make of the middle of the league. Iowa has a very tough away schedule, to be sure.
4. Nebraska - UCF went undefeated in Frost's second year, and they get their toughest games at home this year, so I think they should do substantially better.
5. Purdue - I'm probably overrating them, but they should be this good if they find some consistency between games. They have a tough schedule though.
6. Minnesota - I don't necessarily get their game plan, but they finished last year strong and return a lot.
7. Northwestern - Had a lot of close wins last year. I think it's going to be a reversion to the mean this year.
8. Penn State - Their offense underachieved last year, so I don't see much reason to think it won't be worse this year.
9. Wisconsin - I know they had a lot of injuries last year, but I'm skeptical of their QB play.
10. Michigan State - The offense looks like it's still going to be terrible if not worse. The defense is certainly strong though.
11. Indiana - Looks like it will be another 5-7 season unless they can pull an upset off.
12. Illinois - Maybe good for one upset this year if Peters plays well for them. I'd be equally unsurprised if they got upset in a non-con game.
13. Maryland - Such a terrible hire given his record and reputation at New Mexico.
14. Rutgers - Until proven otherwise. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they lost to Liberty.
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PURDUE - passing game should be lights out, but still probably a year away on defense, and thin in the running game
Oddly enough, I think the opposite might be true.
I think they're going to have more defensive depth and talent than they have had in a while. The secondary should be a lot better, and having George Karlaftis should help to boost the pass rush [from a woeful lack thereof last year]. Good LB corps too. I think we're deeper there than usual. We're still somewhat young at some spots, but at least we have some depth in said youth.
Offense is a concern. Sindelar has a cannon for an arm and talent to throw to, but has shown some troubles with decision-making in the past. And the cannon doesn't get a lot of use if the offensive line can't protect him, which is another concern. Unlike Blough, Sindelar has NEVER shown very good mobility in the pocket to avoid the rush and throw on the run. The running game is thin, yes, but it's more the OL concern that they won't be able to open holes for the RB than which RB is carrying the ball.
The story of the 2019 Boilermakers hinges on the offensive line, and unless it comes together, that passing game will be short circuited. But I don't think that's what you meant by "lights out".
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My first draft
1. OSU
2. Mich
3. Iowa
4. MSU
5. Minn
6. PSU
7. NW
8. Purdue
9. Wisc
10. Neb
11. INDY
12. MD
13. ILL
14. Rut
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Northwestern
4. Iowa
5. Penn State
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan State
8. Nebraska
9. Minnesota
10. Purdue
11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois
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1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Nebraska
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Minnesota
7. Penn State
8. Wisconsin
9. Iowa
10. Indiana
11. Purdue
12. Maryland
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
I actually have no idea what will happen and I think this entire thread ought to be pinned so we all know how ridiculous either I am, or the rest of you appear. I guarantee the teams will prove most of us are substantially, wrong.
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You are probably right. The challenge is, some do this to predict how it ends up, and some, myself included, do it based on things now.
So, for exampl, I think it highly likely OSU would get whipped by many of these teams if the played tomorrow, because serious lack of experience at QB. But it is not uncommon for that to change after the season progresses, for that position to improve dramatically and therefore the team is much tougher to beat.
This year, especially in the west, should be a riot to watch.
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I have no idea, but based on talent level and how things looked at the end of last year.
1. OSU
2. Michigan
3. PSU
4. MSU
5. Iowa
6. Wisconsin
7. Minnesota
8. Purdue
9. Nebraska
10. Northwestern
11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutger
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1. Michigan
2. Iowa
3. OSU
4. MSU
5. Minnesota
6. Wisconsin
7. PSU
8. Nebraska
9. Purdue
10. Maryland
11. Northwestern
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Northwestern
4. Iowa
5. Penn State
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan State
8. Nebraska
9. Minnesota
10. Purdue
11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois
Welcome aboard HG,and I like your list just fine
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Northwestern
4. Iowa
5. Penn State
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan State
8. Nebraska
9. Minnesota
10. Purdue
11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois
Welcome
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Northwestern
4. Iowa
5. Penn State
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan State
8. Nebraska
9. Minnesota
10. Purdue
11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois
Welcome!
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1. Michigan - I really like the Gattis hire. I think Michigan has the most overall veteran talent, and now finally the coaching to put them over the hump.
2. Ohio State - Most overall talent, not exactly veteran talent though. I put them #2 because I don't know if I buy into the new coach and the new QB.
3. Iowa - Poised to win the west.
4. Nebraska - This position is due to the respect I have for Scott Frost. I think he is the best coach in the B1G.
5. Michigan State - Capable of beating everyone ranked above them, I'm not sure if they have the ability to do it week after week.
6. Penn State - Defense should be the best or among the best in the B1G, offense is questionable.
7. Minnesota
8. Purdue
9. Northwestern
10. Wisconsin - Way too low, but I don't know who I move. I expect them to be much better than this.
11. Indiana
12. Maryland
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
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1 Buckeyes
2 Wolverines
3 Badgers
4 Nittany Lions
5 Spartans
6 Cornhuskers
7 Wildcats
8 Hawkeyes
9 Terrapins
10 Golden Gophers
11 Boilermakers
12 Hoosiers
13 Fighting Illini
14 Scarlet Knights
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4. Nebraska - This position is due to the respect I have for Scott Frost. I think he is the best coach in the B1G.
many folks praying morning and night that you are correct
I think it's possible
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If his coaching prowess is on par with his ability to emote like a woman in a post game presser, then Husker Nation is going to have to build their team a much bigger trophy case.
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It seems like "power rankings" and "preseason" are somewhat antithetical, as we don't know how strong the teams really are until they start playing.
It also seems like there's a mix here between posters attempting to guess team strength and other posters attempting to guess how teams will finish, record-wise.
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Right on. Where ha e I heard that before?
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It seems like "power rankings" and "preseason" are somewhat antithetical, as we don't know how strong the teams really are until they start playing.
It also seems like there's a mix here between posters attempting to guess team strength and other posters attempting to guess how teams will finish, record-wise.
The first few are always a little odd. It straightens itself out in a few weeks.
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Right on. Where ha e I heard that before?
Here?
Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37)
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Re: B1G Power Rankings, Preseason (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-preseason/msg149252/#msg149252)
« Reply #28 on: August 23, 2019, 05:28:31 AM »
- Like (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=like;topic=11011;msg=149252)
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You are probably right. The challenge is, some do this to predict how it ends up, and some, myself included, do it based on things now.
So, for exampl, I think it highly likely OSU would get whipped by many of these teams if the played tomorrow, because serious lack of experience at QB. But it is not uncommon for that to change after the season progresses, for that position to improve dramatically and therefore the team is much tougher to beat.
This year, especially in the west, should be a riot to watch.
;)
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I don't know. I really don't.
I do know, Durkin had several top 25 classes in a row, and this should be the year for a breakout.
Just run the ball.
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Just a quick update on where the votes are so far:
- 1.72 Michigan Range 1-3
- 1.78 Ohio State Range 1-5
- 4.89 Penn State Range 3-9
- 5.06 Michigan State Range 3-10
- 5.89 Wisconsin Range 2-10
- 5.89 Iowa Range 2-11
- 6.72 Nebraska Range 1-10
- 7.11 Northwestern Range 3-11
- 7.50 Minnesota Range 4-10
- 9.11 Purdue Range 5-11
- 10.83 Maryland Range 8-13
- 11.56 Indiana Range 10-12
- 13.00 Illinois Range 12-14
- 13.94 Rutgers Range 13-14
On First Place: Michigan and Ohio State are thisclose together. I think half of the new votes have caused these two to swap. Michigan currently leads but when I drop the high and low Ohio State will take over because Michigan is only up by one point and Ohio State has lower low votes (5th vs 3rd).
While there is a LOT of debate about the order, nearly all of us agree that the Wolverines and Buckeyes are the top two. Out of 18 voters so far, only three do not have both of those two teams in their top-2.
There is almost no debate at the bottom. 17 of 18 voters have Rutgers last and the other voter has them 13th. There is almost as much unanimity regarding Illinois. 16 of 18 of us have them 13th with the other two votes for 12th and 14th. We are also pretty much agreed on Indiana. 12 of 18 voters have them 12th with the other six all ranking them 10th or 11th.
Outside of the top two and bottom three where there is a pretty strong consensus, we seem to be very unsure. The other nine teams all have voting ranges of at least five (Maryland, 8-13) and as many as nine (Iowa 2-11 and UNL 1-10).
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Here it is ranked by the standard deviation:
(https://i.imgur.com/wgt7vkY.png)
The teams we are the least sure of are four B1G-W teams:
- Wisconsin: votes range from 2-10
- Iowa: votes range from 2-11
- Nebraska: votes range from 1-10
- Northwestern: votes range from 3-11
Then there is MSU where I think most of us feel like their defense will be one of the best in the league (if not nation) while the offense will likely be one of the worst in the league (if not nation).
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Votes through @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) , 18 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/7JUJY4f.png)
Drop the high and low vote for each team:
(https://i.imgur.com/PUi1drY.png)
Schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/9lwxGvv.png)
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A word on the charts and then on schedules:
The first graph is displayed to illustrate that while we do a ranking, the gaps are far from uniform. Depending on whether or not you drop the high and low, either Ohio State or Michigan is #1 and the other is #2 but really, they are effectively tied either way. Then you have a big gap, then PSU/MSU are effectively tied, etc.
The second graph shows a distribution of the votes. You can really see here that from #3 to #11 we really have no consensus at all.
Personally, I think the Schedule/Performance Chart is the most useful thing I have displayed here. Later in the season I rely on it heavily in making my vote. Ie, I believe that a team that is 0-3 with close losses to #1, #2, and #3 should probably be ranked #4 or #5 or possibly even higher if the losses were on the road. On the other hand, a team that is 3-0 with close wins over #14, #13, and #12 should probably be ranked #11 or #10 or possibly even lower if the wins were at home.
One thing that I think people often fail to consider is that HFA is not the same for all teams. What I mean is that if you are one of the top teams, you want the other top teams at home (where you'll get the HFA that you might need to beat them) and the bad teams on the road (because you should beat them no matter where the game is played). Conversely, if you are one of the bottom teams you want the opposite.
If you look at the chart there is a diagonal line of cells with "n/a" in them running from top-left (tOSU/tOSU) to bottom right (RU/RU). What would be theoretically best for each team is to have as many home games as close to that diagonal line as possible.
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More thoughts on schedules: I thought this was interesting:
- #1 plays at #2 (tOSU at M, 11/30)
- #2 plays at #3 (M at PSU, 10/19)
- #3 plays at #4 (PSU at MSU, 10/26)
- #4 misses #5 but plays at #6 (MSU at UW, 10/12)
- #5 plays at #6 (IA at UW, 11/9)
- #6 plays at #7 (UW at UNL, 11/16)
- #7 hosts #8 but plays at #9 (UNL at MN, 10/12)
- #9 plays at #10 (MN at PU, 9/28)
That is a whole lot of games where the theoretically superior team is on the road against a theoretically slightly inferior team and where HFA is likely to be the difference.
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1) Michigan
2) Ohio State
3) Wisconsin
4) Penn State
5) Iowa
6) Michigan State
7) Nebraska
8) Purdue
9) Northwestern
10) Minnesota
11) Maryland
12) Indiana
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
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Here it is ranked by the standard deviation:
(https://i.imgur.com/wgt7vkY.png)
I prefer this ranking
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1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Nebraska
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Minnesota
7. Penn State
8. Wisconsin
9. Iowa
10. Indiana
11. Purdue
12. Maryland
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
I actually have no idea what will happen and I think this entire thread ought to be pinned so we all know how ridiculous either I am, or the rest of you appear. I guarantee the teams will prove most of us are substantially, wrong.
I am now more optimistic for Iowa's 2019 chances. Michigan transfer WR Oliver Martin was declared eligible to play this season. The past 4-5 years Iowa has been a bit down in the WR department. QB Nate Stanley's senior season should now be a bit better.
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FWIW:
@Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) 's vote changed things only slightly:
- After dropping the high and low, tOSU and M are now tied for first/second.
- Wisconsin passed Iowa for 5th place moving Iowa back to 6th.
I use the scores AFTER dropping the high and low votes for my continuing chart so if there are no additional votes we will start out with a tie for first place.
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My most accurate preseason prediction was how ridiculous my projections would look.
My two best projected teams in the BTW were the two worst in the BTW in my final rankings. I thought Michigan would break through. No, Michigan did not break through.
I got Rutgers right.
As a group we were better; but as a group we thought the BTE had the 4-best teams which did not turn out to be correct.