CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2019, 02:20:42 PM
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1. Can Ohio State remain Ohio State without Urban? Can Fields really be THAT guy? Can they stop getting gashed on D?
2. Is this Michigan's year? Does rumbling start if they don't win the B1G?
3. How far does PSU drop from recent performance? A bit, some, a lot, none?
4. Can Purdue remain an over achiever?
5. Is Nebraska "back"?
6. Wisconsin? Will their new Fun and Gun offensive style work in the Big Ten?
7. Can Rutger win back their S?
8. Florida and Texas, are they "back" or just middlin'?
9. Can Coach MB bring UNC back to 6 wins already?
10. Can anybody else make the Final Two aside from Bamer and Clemmons?
11. Can the Dawgs hold a lead on Bammer?
12. Arkansas, Colorado, USC, Tennessee, UCLA, FSU, Miami ..... how the mighty ...
13. I don't hear much about UDubb. Is that a question?
14. Can Syracuse sustain? Cincinnati? Army?
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Purdue is unlikely to be viewed as an overachiever this year.
With the hype [and the salary] surrounding Jeff Brohm, Purdue would need to hit about 9 wins to truly "overachieve", and IMHO that's highly, highly unlikely. After all, he brought in a top-25 recruiting class, right? Should be time for a "breakout" season!
Everyone is hanging on when the true "breakout" will occur, without necessarily understanding the depths this team is climbing out of. Recruiting is improving, but that top-25 class is true freshmen. It's one thing when you have to play true freshmen because they're just amazing talents. It's another when they're young and green but you can't keep them off the field because the upperclassmen ahead of them aren't B1G-caliber to begin with.
I put my O/U for Purdue this year at 6.5 wins. I see 7-5 as my "goal", but will be satisfied if we're a strong 6-6. Unlike ELA, I don't see Purdue starting 4-0. I'm hopeful for 3-1, but I could just as easily see 1-3.
If Purdue goes 8-4, that to me is overachieving, but I don't think the collective "wisdom" of the national media sees that as anything but minor improvement. And 7-5, which is somewhat achievable but could easily be missed, certainly won't be an overachievement to the media.
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1. Can Ohio State remain Ohio State without Urban? Can Fields really be THAT guy? Can they stop getting gashed on D?
2. Is this Michigan's year? Does rumbling start if they don't win the B1G?
3. How far does PSU drop from recent performance? A bit, some, a lot, none?
4. Can Purdue remain an over achiever?
5. Is Nebraska "back"?
6. Wisconsin? Will their new Fun and Gun offensive style work in the Big Ten?
7. Can Rutger win back their S?
8. Florida and Texas, are they "back" or just middlin'?
9. Can Coach MB bring UNC back to 6 wins already?
10. Can anybody else make the Final Two aside from Bamer and Clemmons?
11. Can the Dawgs hold a lead on Bammer?
12. Arkansas, Colorado, USC, Tennessee, UCLA, FSU, Miami ..... how the mighty ...
13. I don't hear much about UDubb. Is that a question?
14. Can Syracuse sustain? Cincinnati? Army?
1. Probably not. They will still be an elite program, but Urban was perhaps the best coach in the business. I know Fields has all of the physical tools, but the mental game takes time. I don't even think he's been announced as the starter yet.
2. I think the odds are very good. They return a lot of talent. But it seems like we say that every year...
3. I'm thinking they will be on par with last year. 8 to 9 wins.
4. Yes.
5. Yes, and I think Scott Frost is the best coach in B1G. I see the west becoming very good, very quickly.
6. I don't know. I kinda liked their old style...
7. Utge is still working on their R, let's not get ahead of ourselves.
8. Middling. But don't we have this conversation every single year? At least since Mack Brown and Urban were in town...
9. Don't know enough to comment.
10. Eight Ball says yes.
11. Don't know enough to comment.
12. Arkansas is not mighty....
13. Don't know enough to comment.
14. Was Syracuse good, or was the ACC that bad? I think the latter.
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6. I don't know. I kinda liked their old style...
Then you won't be disappointed. It's not changing.
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Then you won't be disappointed. It's not changing.
Yeah, where the hell did that question come from?
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Oh. I thought I read Wisconsin was going to open up their offense and really air it out this year.
My bad.
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The play calling will change a bit due to the QB change, but the offense is still a pro-set. PC has added some RPO, given that the QB's in the house can move a little bit.
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Twas a joke. Ha ha.
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It's no joke, they are going to ride JT
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Unless Fields is a disaster (let's say a 50th percentile QB), OSU should be the favorite. Michigan should once again come into that game with a chance to win the East, though.
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Twas a joke. Ha ha.
Kinda seemed like it had to be...
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Unless Fields is a disaster (let's say a 50th percentile QB), OSU should be the favorite. Michigan should once again come into that game with a chance to win the East, though.
not sure I agree.
Ohio State lost arguably the best coach it's ever had and definitely the best QB it's ever had. 4/5 OL's gone. It's top 3 WR's gone. Lost the chain moving RB in Mike Weber. Dobbins gets all the praise, but Weber was the better back imo.
Fields is hugely talented, but really not sure he's a fit for Day's offense. Think there could be some hiccups there.
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Ohio State lost arguably the best coach it's ever had
Tongue-in-cheek respons: "False. They lost the certain and obvious singular best coach in OSU's history."
Having said that, the roster is still arguably the best in america, and their coach is highly unlikely to be so much of a demotion as to mess that up. Meyer leaving isn't going to matter much until we're 2, 3, or 4 years out.
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Fields is hugely talented, but really not sure he's a fit for Day's offense. Think there could be some hiccups there.
That's what I said. If there are hiccups there (if Fields is a problem), then OSU won't stay the favorite.
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not sure I agree.
Ohio State lost arguably the best coach it's ever had and definitely the best QB it's ever had. 4/5 OL's gone. It's top 3 WR's gone. Lost the chain moving RB in Mike Weber. Dobbins gets all the praise, but Weber was the better back imo.
Fields is hugely talented, but really not sure he's a fit for Day's offense. Think there could be some hiccups there.
I tend to agree with you on most of this. I think they’re really going to miss a running back with Mike Weber’s style. I also think the quarterback will eventually be pretty damn good but he does not have the benefit of the year in the offense like Haskins did. I expect a pretty bumpy ride this year. On a positive note I feel pretty good about the defense if you can believe that.
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OSU should have the talent to blow out most opponents. It hinges on those games that are competitive and which way the ball bounces.
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The play calling will change a bit due to the QB change, but the offense is still a pro-set. PC has added some RPO, given that the QB's in the house can move a little bit.
(Small nerdy hill for me to die on)
RPOs don’t rely on mobile QBs. Some do, most don’t. UW has run at least some RPOs since 2009 or 2010. Digging back I’ve seen them run by Tolzien, Stave and Hornibrook.
All RPOs often are is plays that are one part run (by a back) one part pass. No dual-threat needed.
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not sure I agree.
Ohio State lost arguably the best coach it's ever had and definitely the best QB it's ever had. 4/5 OL's gone. It's top 3 WR's gone. Lost the chain moving RB in Mike Weber. Dobbins gets all the praise, but Weber was the better back imo.
Fields is hugely talented, but really not sure he's a fit for Day's offense. Think there could be some hiccups there.
I read all this, and I just can’t stop thinking about last year, when everything aligned for Michigan except if you squinted and thought “Huh, that Mich offense isn’t THAT good, and OSU does one thing stupid well ...”
OSU just has that squint benefit of the doubt for me. Maybe I’ll be wrong.
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I think some are discounting Fields' abilities as a pure passer, still. The key I think is how comfortable he is with the system, and that will grow, and whether he can stay healthy (by not running much). He's a large dude, not super fast or shifty, and needs to avoid hits from LBs I think.
The fact they have some early practice games should help a lot.
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Speaking of preseason polls ....
Consider last year’s preseason Top 25, where 11 teams ranked in the preseason did not finish the year in the Top 25. Those programs included the likes of: No. 7 Wisconsin, No. 8 Miami, No. 10 Auburn, No. 12 Michigan State, No. 13 Stanford, No. 15 USC, No. 16 TCU, No. 17 Virginia Tech, No. 18 Mississippi State, No. 19 Florida State and No. 25 Oklahoma State.
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The lowest-ranked team in the preseason AP poll to reach the College Football Playoff was No. 19 Oklahoma in 2015. It’s also worth noting that 15 of the 20 qualifiers for the playoff thus far began the season ranked in the top 10. That means, on average, one team outside the top 10 will reach the CFB Playoff.
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I think it's too easy for a #15 to #25 team to fall out of the rankings, to the extent that it stops being noteworthy. To that end, I'm copy/pasting from a thread I saw yesterday about Top 10 teams that have dropped out of the Top 25 recently.
Begin copy/paste:
Past teams that finished unranked:
2018: #4 Wisconsin, #8 Auburn, #9 Miami (Fla.)
2017: #3 Florida St.
2016: #10 Notre Dame
2015: #6 Auburn, #8 USC, #9 Georgia
2014: #4 Oklahoma, #9 South Carolina
2013: #5 Georgia, #10 Florida
2012: #1 USC, #10 Arkansas
2011: #8 Texas A&M
2010: #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #9 Iowa
2009: #3 Oklahoma, #9 Oklahoma St.
2008: #7 LSU, #9 Clemson, #10 Auburn
2007: #10 Louisville
(Last time it happened to U-M was 2005.)
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Four teams appeared on that list twice since 2007 - Auburn, Oklahoma, Florida, USC.
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Oklahoma surprises me
the others do not
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Oklahoma has had some uneven years. But the thing is, you generally have to have done something pretty food the season before, to be in the Top 10, to then fall out of the Top 25.
Our one year to be "honored" on this list was after we went undefeated, won the B12, and played for the national championship. The next season, we'd lost the most accurate passing QB in P5 college football history, one of our best WRs in Longhorn history, and had a trainwreck of a season for those and various other reasons. But you still have to have done something pretty good, to even be on this list, so there's that...
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I recall somewhere that the top 3 preseason almost always end up top ten (FSU was an exception one year). As noted, to be top three you have to have a great season the year before.
The top ten usually ends up ranked, but those last 7 get sketchy, as noted. With 130 teams, it's a lot better than a random shot of course, but my GUESS is one could take last year's final top 25 and be just as good as the preseason (not that they differ much anyway).
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Re Utee's comment, The 2009 pre-season #3 OU team, coming off a 24-24 loss to Florida in the NC Game, lost Heisman-winner Sam Bradford for nearly the whole season. He went out with a separated shoulder in a 14-13 loss to BYU in the opener, came back and was reinjured in a 16-13 loss vs. Texas, and that was it for his season.
There was another strange factor that year--we didn't have a reliable FG kicker. K Jimmy Stevens ran hot-and-cold. We missed a medium-length FG try at the end that would have beaten BYU. We eschewed 3 (IIRC) red zone FG attempts against Nebraska and failed to score every time in a 10-3 loss.
We had a what seemed to be a dead-solid pick-six off Colt McCoy (Texas), but Colt made a great open-field, ultimately game-saving, tackle on our DB.
A 41-13 loss to Texas Tech in the 11th game was the only loss by more than one score. 20-21 at Miami, was the other one.
A bad (8-5) season coming off of 2008, but one that was close to being much better.
Is this tale of woe reasonably typical of teams that start highly ranked and end up unranked?
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I'd guess most top ten teams that flail have an injury story combined with some tough narrow losses. I think FSU when they were #3 was just way over ranked and a mediocre team. That was an unusual meltdown.
The UGA teams on the list had some narrow losses and injuries, but really had lost too much the year before to be that highly ranked. I do NOT think that is the case this year. The OL looks to be outstanding, baring injury, and there is depth also.