CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on August 11, 2019, 06:55:05 PM
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This off season Penn State was hit with more transfers than perhaps any other team in the nation. They lost an all time great at QB, and the second RB picked in the draft. Further, their best offensive lineman left early for the NFL. The schedule is tough, with a night game against Iowa at their house on a "gold out," and a brutal stretch of games right in the middle. Crossover games against Purdue and Minnesota are no longer easy games.
This SHOULD be a bit of a rebuilding year then. However, Penn State's situation may not be as challenging as it first appears.
Special Teams:
Penn State should see some pretty major upgrades here. Everyone of note returns, they picked up one of the nation's best kickoff specialists from Virginia Tech, and increased depth should allow for stronger special team play. By all accounts this unit should be improved over last season, and special teams last season were pretty good.
Offense:
Wide receivers- Last year, Penn State's one year experiment with having a RB coach in charge didn't work out. The deep and senior-laden wide receiving core suddenly became unreliable, and seemed to drop nearly as many passes as they caught. Franklin fired the guy, and got himself a true wide receiver coach. Towards the end of the season, the senior wide receivers saw less and less time, eventually supplanted by young guys like KJ Hamler and Jahan Dotson. This summer, after losing his starting job, Juwan Johnson transferred to Oregon. He was supposed to be the best wide receiver on the roster just one year ago. This is a young unit, but should be an improvement over the previous year.
Tight Ends:
This should be the strength of the offense. I think everyone knows about freshman All-American Pat Freiermuth by now, but there are VERY good players behind him. Expect to see a lot of two TE sets.
This will be the best TE unit in the B1G.
Offensive Line:
The departure of Connor McGovern early to the NFL huts in a big way. If he had stayed, this would undoubtedly be one of the better lines in the B1G. Fortunately, Penn State has recruited well over the last few seasons, and, for the first time under Franklin, will have an actual 2 deep across the board. It's strange to think that the NCAA sanctions effected this unit until 2019, but they did. Overall, I expect the line to remain middle of the road in the B1G. I think they take a step back, mostly due to the ability of Trace McSorely to move in the pocket.
QB:
Sean Clifford is a fan favorite, mostly due to his absurd 399.7 QB rating from 2018. Although he is more of a pocket passer, he also has the ability to run if needed. Franklin even mentioned that Clifford beat McSorely's 40 time this summer. Most seem to agree he is a much more accurate passer than Trace, but he doesn't have the pocket presence and awareness that Trace had. I expect a step back here, but not as much as some think.
Note: This is technically still an open QB competition with Will Levis, and the BTN guys said that both guys looked good and neither one seemed ahead of the other. There is a slim possibility that Will Levis will start. I can't say much about him since he is fairly unknown. He is a gargantuan man and looks like a linebacker.
Defense will come later...
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Penn State has a very good defense. Clifford is a solid QB but they will miss McSorely's scrambling and make something happen out of a busted play ability and other intangibles such as toughness and fantastic luck. Penn State should win most of their games. I mean, they're a bit better than 7-5 I've seen in some pre-season guesstimates. Looking forward to the rumored white out on October 19th.
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Penn State has a very good defense. Clifford is a solid QB but they will miss McSorely's scrambling and make something happen out of a busted play ability and other intangibles such as toughness and fantastic luck. Penn State should win most of their games. I mean, they're a bit better than 7-5 I've seen in some pre-season guesstimates. Looking forward to the rumored white out on October 19th.
Is it rumored? I thought it was announced.
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Is it rumored? I thought it was announced.
It is indeed announced. It is even on the tickets.
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Penn State Running backs:
Penn State will likely split running back duties between:
1. Ricky Slade, who averaged 5.7 YPC last season and is a smaller, shifty back.
2. Journey Brown, a speedster who played sparingly last year.
3. Or two true highly touted freshman.
The running back position should be a strength again for this team, although perhaps not to the level of a Miles Sanders. As far as quality and depth goes, it is telling that former 4 star and Notre Dame transfer CJ Holmes made the transition to safety this off season.
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The Penn State defense should be very much improved from last season.
Defensive Ends: This group of defensive ends will make a strong case to be the best in the B1G. Yes, I know there is a lot of ridiculous talent in the B1G this year. Penn State led the B1G in sacks last season, and this group is even more talented this year. Gross-Matos was voted first team All-Big Ten in just his sophomore season. However, behind him there are 5 extremely talented players.
Jayson Oweh - A freak of an athlete and one of the fastest players on the team. He ran a 4.33 forty yard dash this summer. Did I mention he is 6'5 and 250 pounds? He had two sacks in 4 games as a true freshman, and was picked by most of the team to be the break out player.
Shaka Toney / Shareef Miller- Played in all 13 games last year, both tied for 12th in the B1G with 0.44 sacks per game. Shareef was constantly in the backfield of the opponents, and ended with 9 tackles for loss in B1G play.
Shane Simmons - An all world recruit that spent most of his redshirt freshman season injured. By all accounts he is healthy and he and Toney specifically singled out by James Franklin for praise.
Keep in mind that Penn State likes to rotate their guys, so all of these players should be a significant factor in 2019. The unit will be an improvement over 2018.
Defensive Tackles:
Penn State has two very good defensive tackles, but not a lot of proven depth behind them. True freshman PJ Mustipher was so talented that he played in all 12 games last season. He has drawn rave reviews so far this year. James Franklin remarked that he was a bit worried about the DT position, but now he isn't worried any more. PJ is the reason Franklin can relax a little bit.
Robert Windsor was a second team all B1G selection in 2018. He's a dang good player and should be one of the best DTs in the B1G again this year.
My concern is depth. Although Penn State has recruited well, I haven't heard much about anyone other than Windsor and Mustipher. No news is probably bad news. I think this unit takes a small step back in 2019.
More to come
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Cornerbacks:
This unit should also be among the best in the B1G. It is deep, and it is talented. John Reid was honorable All-B1G last season, despite still recovering from a significant injury in 2017. James Franklin says that he is finally back to his 2016 form. In fact, Franklin says he looks much better than 2016.
Tariq Castro-Fields actually was the better player last season, but hasn't gotten the accolades John Reid has. Perhaps it is because teams rarely throw in his direction.
A newcomer to watch is Keaton Ellis. Apparently he is the best player from Penn State's highly regarded freshman recruiting class. This unit should be better than the 2018 version.
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Linebackers:
I don't know what most observers would think of the 2018 squad, but I felt the linebackers were the weakest part of the defense. Even freak athlete, Micah Parsons, seemed to always be tackling people 7 yards downfield. However, the unit did improve over the course of the year, and return everyone. I expect this to be the most improved unit on the team, but perhaps not as dominating as most of the press is predicting.
Safeties:
Another deep unit in which a senior transferred for playing time elsewhere. One of the starters is Garrett Taylor, who was tagged as an honorable mention All B1G safety in 2018. The other safety position is up for grabs, but it should be between 2018 starter Lamont Wade and an incoming transfer, Jaquan Brisker. It is considered the most the most competitive position on the team. I expect this unit to be improved in 2019.
So, overall ranking compared to 2018:
Linebackers: ++
Safeties: +
Defensive End: +
Defensive Tackle: -
Wide receivers: ++
Tight Ends: +
Running Backs: -
Offensive Line: =
Quarterback: -
Special Teams: +
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nice write ups,didn't know PSU lead the Conf. in Sacks
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BBTZ, how long do you think Franklin will last: as long as he wants, or less?
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BBTZ, how long do you think Franklin will last: as long as he wants, or less?
If I recall, you are a Michigan fan, so I will put this in a Michigan context.
As far as coaching hot seats go, Franklin's seat is practically frozen compared to Harbaugh. I think most Michigan fans are happy with Harbaugh.
Franklin is well liked by most people associated with PSU.
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It starts with expectations. You could imagine what would happen to the coach who replaced Saban if the Tide had records of say 10-3, 11-2, 10-3 ....
... if you managed that at Iowa they'd name streets after you.
Mark Richt was 10-3 in his last two seasons. (One bowl win in that last year is technically not his.)
I think JH needs to make the playoff this season. If UM doesn't THIS year, when would they in the future? I suspect expectations at PSU are more rational, they can be 10-3 on average and JF will be in decent shape.
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It starts with expectations. You could imagine what would happen to the coach who replaced Saban if the Tide had records of say 10-3, 11-2, 10-3 ....
... if you managed that at Iowa they'd name streets after you.
Mark Richt was 10-3 in his last two seasons. (One bowl win in that last year is technically not his.)
I think JH needs to make the playoff this season. If UM doesn't THIS year, when would they in the future? I suspect expectations at PSU are more rational, they can be 10-3 on average and JF will be in decent shape.
Historically, Penn State has had a big run about every 3 years. Under Franklin there seems to be more of a consistency from year to year. Penn State has been ranked for 40 straight weeks, which is something like 5th in the nation.
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Not time given on the Nitts'
It is indeed announced. It is even on the tickets.
No time or other indication given on the Nitts' schedule.
https://gopsusports.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=516 (https://gopsusports.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=516)
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Not time given on the Nitts'
No time or other indication given on the Nitts' schedule.
https://gopsusports.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=516 (https://gopsusports.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=516)
Yeah, it was announced back in April. Feel free to Google it.
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If I recall, you are a Michigan fan, so I will put this in a Michigan context.
As far as coaching hot seats go, Franklin's seat is practically frozen compared to Harbaugh. I think most Michigan fans are happy with Harbaugh.
Franklin is well liked by most people associated with PSU.
If Franklin can average 10 wins, he can stay at his job until retirement. Same with Harbaugh. But I only think one of these can pull it off. That's the one who's already averaging that. The one whose season average is between 8-12 and 9-13 is the one who was fortunate to delay his firing with a hail mary OC hire ... which worked out in the realm of best case scenario, until he was hired away ... and now this coach is yet to equally replace him.
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If Franklin can average 10 wins, he can stay at his job until retirement. Same with Harbaugh. But I only think one of these can pull it off. IMO, the one who can't is the one who deftly delayed his firing with a hail mary OC hire ... which worked out in the realm of best case scenario, until he was hired away ... and now this coach is yet to equally replace him.
You really think that Franklin's job was at risk? Because you'd probably be the only person I've ever met that feels that way. Granted, there's always a random internet tough guy that thinks Franklin could have taken a team with like 2 scholarship O-Lineman and win the B1G. But the majority of fans knew it was going to be a few years. Most of us were shocked it only took 3 years, to be frank.
JoMo was pretty good, but so was the talent that Franklin brought in.
Most of the people I have talked to would be happy with 9 wins this year. Tough schedule, young team, new QB.
Penn State isn't as spoiled as you might think. We had the dark years from 2000-2004, and then the sanction years. If you read my post above, you would see those sanctions STILL had an effect on PSU's depth all the way through 2018.
Should be a good season, I have about 45 days left until I start my heavy travel season. I hope to post more until that happens!
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If Franklin ever accomplishes one 10-win season without Joe Moorhead, he'll have done it for the first time. And I think it's a fair bet whether he'd still have his job if he didn't have the two 10-win seasons with Joe Moorhead.
In a hurry, yes, Franklin has to prove that this pattern isn't meaningful. Would bet he lasts 2-3 years max if none of them are 10-win regular seasons. And that's still just one 10-win season to stave off a fast firing, not the frequency it takes to average that and stave off all firings.
I think BO'B was the long-term coach PSU doesn't know it should wish it had.
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(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.tritondigitalcms.com%2F6616%2Fsites%2F847%2F2019%2F03%2F18121226%2FPSU-2019-Schedule-web-585x1024.jpg&hash=3a812b837348061bc3c75d2e71ffa244)
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If Franklin ever accomplishes one 10-win season without Joe Moorhead, he'll have done it for the first time. And I think it's a fair bet whether he'd still have his job if he didn't have the two 10-win seasons with Joe Moorhead.
In a hurry, yes, Franklin has to prove that this pattern isn't meaningful. Would bet he lasts 2-3 years max if none of them are 10-win regular seasons. And that's still just one 10-win season to stave off a fast firing, not the frequency it takes to average that and stave off all firings.
I think BO'B was the long-term coach PSU doesn't know it should wish it had.
Bill O'Brien was an amazing x and o's coach. However, he hated recruiting. PSU fans love the guy for all that he did, but he was never going to stay at PSU if an NFL coaching job opened up.
I don't know how I can be any more clear. Franklin's job was NEVER in jeopardy.
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I don't know how I can be any more clear. Franklin's job was NEVER in jeopardy.
I agree a good coach utilizes what's at his disposal.Franklin won a BIG Conference Title in 3 years.That right there buys him some time and he's a good recruiter in a talent rich state
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I agree a good coach utilizes what's at his disposal.Franklin won a BIG Conference Title in 3 years.That right there buys him some time and he's a good recruiter in a talent rich state
Urban would have sucked if all of his players were quadriplegics. Obviously he gets no credit because they were all able to walk.
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I don't know how I can be any more clear. Franklin's job was NEVER in jeopardy.
I didn't say that he was ever on the hot seat. I implied that he was "heading there," 2-3 years out, before hiring Moorhead, staved it off with Moorhead, and am implying that he's again "heading there" without Moorhead.
If Frankling had zero 10-win seasons to-date, he'd already be there -- the hot seat. And I'm expecting zero is how many he'd have without Joe Moorhead. Anyway, I don't know how long it will take until Franklin is fired, but I am betting that he won't retire in Happy Valley. Absent another hail mary coaching hire hit like Moorhead, I am skeptical he can do enough to stay.
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I didn't say that he was ever on the hot seat. I implied that he was "heading there," 2-3 years out, before hiring Moorhead, staved it off with Moorhead, and am implying that he's again "heading there" without Moorhead.
If Frankling had zero 10-win seasons to-date, he'd already be there -- the hot seat. And I'm expecting zero is how many he'd have without Joe Moorhead. Anyway, I don't know how long it will take until Franklin is fired, but I am betting that he won't retire in Happy Valley. Absent another hail mary coaching hire hit like Moorhead, I am skeptical he can do enough to stay.
That's kind of what he does...
And Moorhead was good, but Penn State's success has been more than just one man.
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Moorhead came aboard for the '16-17 seasons.The stalwarts of that offense were recruited by Franklin before Moorhead got there,McSorley,Barkley,Hamilton,Gesicki,Thomkins,Blacknail,.And Franklin brought Johnson(WR) & Sanders(RB)aboard with Moorhead.The Jimmy/Joe's were Franklins harvest.One can make the argument Moorehead was along for the ride.All those guys are on NFL rosters,save Johnson who's finishing up at Oregon
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That's kind of what he does...
And Moorhead was good, but Penn State's success has been more than just one man.
Getting ten wins without Moorhead will be doing that for the first time. So Franklin has to start there. Based on longterm fan expectations, he probably also has to (begin to) average a 10-win season. I suppose you are betting these things will happen.
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Moorhead came aboard for the '16-17 seasons.The stalwarts of that offense were recruited by Franklin before Moorhead got there,McSorley,Barkley,Hamilton,Gesicki,Thomkins,Blacknail,.And Franklin brought Johnson(WR) & Sanders(RB)aboard with Moorhead.The Jimmy/Joe's were Franklins harvest.One can make the argument Moorehead was along for the ride
No one has ever said Franklin can't recruit. He's a great recruiter. Not quite to the OSU level and also averaging out below Michigan, but certainly PSU is distinguished as a better recruiting power than any other Big Ten teams.
What I've said is that Franklin has never turned those great recruits into a 10-win season without Moorhead. We can also borrow from a thousand other threads on this board and say that "recruiting is necessary but not sufficient to win big." Highest level recruiting often sputters without highest level coaching.
With PSU, I'm arguing that Moorhead showed us the minimum level of OC quality necessary to make the machine go ... as well as the minimum necessary to overcome Franklin's clock mismanagement and routine in-game gaffes. And then stating that Franklin now has a lower level of OC quality than Moorhead and it's no longer enough.
I sense resistance to this and am surprised. My PSUCOM friends believe he's in the middle of a painfully slow exit, but perhaps that is a less representative group of Nit fans than I knew. Either way, we have no choice except this: We'll run the next 3 years as our experiment and meet back here to discuss.
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That's what he's hired for,Moorhead turned around a 6-5 fordham team to 10-1 one season in the patriot league.Nothing else on his resume screams Mike Leach/Bill Walsh.Franklin has still won a BIG Championship.So if/when Michigan under Harbaugh does the same who do we credit?That was a hell of an offensive cast to have.We'll see what Moorhead does with out Mullen's guys
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If Harbaugh were to do it with Gattis and fail to do it without him, then everyone should hold that against him. Of course, the difference there is that both of these coaches (Franklin and Harbaugh) probably are safe until retirement if they average 10-wins. And Harbaugh has done that with all of his coaching configurations, whereas Franklin only has done it with Moorhead.
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We'll run the next 3 years as our experiment and meet back here to discuss.
If JH is there you'll have 3 more September Heismans :cheer:.John Cooper had a boat load of 10 win seasons,hardly an indicator of leadership.In big games he got boat raced more often than not.Again all that talent is playing on Sundays.In 3 years will find out if Moorhead was all that
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If JH is there you'll have 3 more September Heismans :cheer:
Maybe! We can even discuss that in the Michigan thread both now *and* in three years.
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And how many immediate transfers at QB has Franklin had?When has Harbaugh done it with his own guy?5 years in he should have molded some one by now
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We don't have to keep including Harbaugh in the conversation. If you insist, we can. Even happy to have two conversations. The conversation about Franklin goes well here. And conversations about Michigan fit in this other 18-page thread (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/2019-michigan-offseason-thread/340/).
I do think it's a weird question, though -- to imply a roster should be denigrated if it includes transfers. "Roster building" means building the best roster you can under the circumstances. And in the 2010s, that sometimes meant capitalizing on new transfer rules. If coaches excel with finding outside transfers, that shouldn't be demeaned. It's either worth ignoring or hailing -- somewhere in between.
There aren't any consequences. At least with the way Michigan has done it there haven't been any downsides. With QBs, for example, it's not like the transfers are repelling future recruits (every class has included a 4-star so far and 2021 has a commitment from 5-star JJ McCarthy, the best prospect Harbaugh has recruited yet). Also ... Harbaugh did recruit Dylan McCaffery, and it looks like a hit.
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That rich you made the comparisons with Franklin/Harbaugh that I have pointed out IMO are rather slanted.Kind of a small window you're squishing Franklin thru because they're not on a roll right now.You think Franklin needed Moorhead,I think Moorhead needed Talent.I know Harbaugh needs QB transfers.Plus I'm a Buckeye I took a blood oath to give the Skunk Weasels and their minions a thrashing when ever the opportunity arises.Or at least a good Dutch Rub
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I think Franklin needed both Moorhead and talent. I think Moorhead needed both himself and talent. And this explains why both have struggled since they parted.
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Put that thing out,you'll burn your fingers.They stuggled last year,the year before they blew Michigan's doors off and lost two very close games on the road to OSU/MSU.Not sure were you are finding this long string of failure from Franklin.It may come but hasn't really yet,and M has hardly established any dominance to warrant bombast.Deep down your queezy with PSU/MSU hanging around
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You're right. For Moorhead, that's just one year. For Franklin, though, read it as "when apart" and include the pre-Moorhead years to equal 23-16. Obviously, though, Franklin could shut this down by winning 10 games this year and doing it again in 2020.
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I think one can think both that James Franklin isn't on the hot seat and that Ricky Rahne isn't the answer at OC.
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You're right. For Moorhead, that's just one year. For Franklin, though, read it as "when apart" and include the pre-Moorhead years to equal 23-16. Obviously, though, Franklin could shut this down by winning 10 games this year and doing it again in 2020.
There's a sappy old saying "Don't look at whole in the donut,look at the whole donut".You have this obssession with picking the wings off of the Franklin Bug.The last 3 years Franklin's teams have beat Ohio State and lost 2-1 pt games,39-38 in 2017 and 27-26 last season.The wheels would have to really fall off of the cart.When Franklin has won the East and beat the Buckeyes non of which Harbaugh has on his resume.
Along your line of thinking MD @ MSU should be moving along.Hell a strong argument can be made that Herman got tOSU over the top - which I really believe.Congrats to URBZ and JF for hiring the right guys.Penn State would have a hard time dismissing a HC who has a better record vs tOSU than anyone not named Dantonio.End of Rant
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Let's see what Franklin does for a couple more years before writing him off. At the time of his hire I was underwhelmed but he's done good things since.
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I think one can think both that James Franklin isn't on the hot seat and that Ricky Rahne isn't the answer at OC.
Isn't that my message so far? I said that Franklin isn't on the hot seat -- of course then I go one step further to say he'll eventually progress to the hot seat with this OC ... but still.
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Home Boy we gotta get in shape for the season
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Penn State would have a hard time dismissing a HC who has a better record vs tOSU than anyone not named Dantonio.
Let's be clear about what I've said: I never predicted Franklin would be fired today, after this year, or next year. Instead, I'm predicting that JF's seasons with JoMo are bad predictors of JF's future seasons. Right now his program looks closer to an average of the other years.
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There's also this:
Franklin versus MSU: 1-4
Franklin versus Michigan: 1-4
And both those plus the OSU series would have zero total PSU wins without Moorhead.
My prediction is that PSU won't get better in these games and this will cost Franklin his job ... years from now.
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What JH's resume w/o QB transfers? - this is fun.Still 1-4 but with the Caveat of a Conference Championship,but I repeat my self
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Again:
(1) there's a much better thread for Michigan stuff than this
(2) needing a stream of suitable transfers and always getting them is not the same as needing a stream of suitable coordinators and only ever getting one ... who has since left.
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According to you,both are a necessary means to an ends under said circumstance.Left out about 6 sunday starters on the offensive side of the ball left also.No this thread's fine it's where the froth was wrought :040:
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Isn't that my message so far? I said that Franklin isn't on the hot seat -- of course then I go one step further to say he'll eventually progress to the hot seat with this OC ... but still.
Well, maybe, but if the only issue is the coordinator, not too hard to fire one and hire another. Rahme was basically his guy who kind of deafaulted to after Moorhead left, but Moorhead was an inspired hire, going down to Fordham.
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Yes. That's my stated condition. "Unless he finds another JoMo ..." Maybe that was likely the first time or maybe it was unlikely. Maybe Franklin can do it a second time and maybe he can't.
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Yes. That's my stated condition. "Unless he finds another JoMo ..." Maybe that was likely the first time or maybe it was unlikely. Maybe Franklin can do it a second time and maybe he can't.
A few thoughts on this:
1. Have you looked at how many quality assistant coaches James Franklin has had? Gattis, for one. It is no fluke he found JoeMo, that's what he does.
2. IMO, Franklin has overachieved or met expectations every year. Granted, there have been a couple of heart breaking losses to Ohio State and MSU in there, but there have also been a couple of games that PSU won that could have gone either way.
3. The only possible exception to #2 was last year. However, the big underachieving unit last season was the wide receivers. Franklin responded by hiring a great WR coach in the off season. This year the wide receivers should be a strength. If there is a problem, Franklin addresses it.
You keep trying to draw comparisons between Harbaugh and Franklin, but they are different style coaches. Franklin is a CEO type coach, a player's coach, and great with the media. Harbaugh is none of those things. Harbaugh is an X's and O's guy, and a no-nonsense coach. About the only thing they do similar are the unconventional methods they use to get an advantage. Did you know that PSU is going to be on an HBO "hard knocks" style program? Sound familiar?
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(a) Franklin has made many good hires but the majority of his PSU OC hires have been sub-JoMo, which isn't good enough. It's common with helmet schools for "very many nice things" to still be less than what's necessary.
(b) I'd say Franklin's 2-8 record versus MSU and Michigan is a problem that he doesn't seem to be correcting.
(c) I don't mean to draw Harbaugh comparisons (except in the head to head record) and have continuously tried to pry that part of the conversation to another thread.
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(a) Franklin has made many good hires but the majority of his PSU OC hires have been sub-JoMo, which isn't good enough. It's common with helmet schools for "very many nice things" to still be less than what's necessary.The Head Coach is the CEO,and you seem bark at the fact he hired a good coach,signed good players and implemented both to win the BIG.The fact seems lost on you that although Franklin hasn't got back there in 2 years,Harbaugh's never been there in 4
(b) I'd say Franklin's 2-8 record versus MSU and Michigan is a problem that he doesn't seem to be correcting.Physician heal thyself - I'd say Harbaugh going 1-7 the last two games to end the season is worse or 2-6 vs OSU/MSU not as telling but should be your focus
(c) I don't mean to draw Harbaugh comparisons (except in the head to head record) and have continuously tried to pry that part of the conversation to another thread.Of course you wouldn't because in light of it your silly assertations they swirl the drain.You obviously don't recall the "Christ coming to cleanse the Temple" mindest when JH landed in AA.They didn't pony up 7-8-9 mil per so peeps could pop off citing a better record than Franklin and 10-3 seasons.OHH,QB whisperer they said look what he did with Andrew Luck/Alex Smith.Yet 4 years in and his starting QB's of note were transferes in '15,'18 and now seems to escape your omnipotent ogling.Your attacks on Franklin don't pass the say-it-out-loud Test.Say your posts out loud and see how they sound.
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nubbz:
1) that's a scary amount of large, red font
2) BBTZ created this thread to discuss PSU and Franklin. Try not to focus so much on coaches and teams that aren't Franklin or PSU. I can tell you want to talk about Harbaugh. So do I. It'll be fun! But it doesn't belong here and is distracting from the conversation BBTZ and I are having. BBTZ just accused the thread of having too many Harbaugh comparisons. Can we please stay on topic? That's a better use of our time.
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I'm beginning to think you're stirring up a Fire Franklin Frenzy in a last ditch effort to shanghai PSU recruits.I agree with BBTS if Frankilin's seat is getting warm Booger's in danger of simultaneous combustion
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You think that I have that power -- to type things to ~20 friends at cfb51 and have that affect the national recruiting landscape? This just isn't that influential of a message board, and I don't think Michigan and OSU are overly worried about PSU's recruiting.
Also, I never said Franklin is on the hot seat now. I've even said the opposite. What I have said is that, assuming he wants to retire in State College, he's not on track and isn't showing signs of getting on track.
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And yet he's still reached higher heights and beat the defending CC .BBTS didn't start the thread for the reasons you responded,certainly not to beat Franklin's rep like a dusty rug.Nor did he remotely hint that he agreed with the one sided yammering.
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nubbz:
1) that's a scary amount of large, red font
did you take that from the Husker prick squad?
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I think that Nubbz and AC should dook it out.
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Only if it's about IPAs
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Don't drink it A.C you're still a young man.I think Brutus should quit smoking Hippy Lettuce - not there's anything wrong with that
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Isn't that my message so far? I said that Franklin isn't on the hot seat -- of course then I go one step further to say he'll eventually progress to the hot seat with this OC ... but still.
OK, just so I'm clear --
Franklin took Vanderbilt to bowl games. He then outperformed expectations every year at PSU. Last year was a tough year in which PSU lost 3 very close games. Therefore, the entire past decade of extraordinary coaching accomplishments is off the table?
That's tough man.
And yes, Franklin has struggled against MSU, UM, and Ohio State. PSU has only just recently risen to the point in which those games should be competitive.
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(1) You have repeated that statement, that Franklin has overachieved each year. I worry my silence has led you to believe I agree, so I should clarify that I do not. I feel strongly that PSU's star was higher with BO'B and that Franklin underachieved in his first two years and that he also underachieved in 2018 (this time relative not to a BO'B extrapolation but relative to what JoMo could have done with the same pieces)
(2) the 2016, 2017, and 2018 versions of MSU have been described as a 7-6 caliber team with high variance (landing with respectively 3, 9, and 7 wins [rather than 7/7/7] on the whim of random chance) around here. PSU has been above that level all of these years.
(3) how have we gotten this far into the conversation without seeing if you agree with this statement: "In terms of clock management and 4th down management, James Franklin may well be** the worst in-game decision-maker in the Big Ten."
**(i.e., in a group of the worst 2-4 at this aspect of
Coaching)
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(1) You have repeated that statement, that Franklin has overachieved each year. I worry my silence has led you to believe I agree, so I should clarify that I do not. I feel strongly that PSU's star was higher with BO'B and that Franklin underachieved in his first two years and that he also underachieved in 2018 (this time relative not to a BO'B extrapolation but relative to what JoMo could have done with the same pieces)
(2) the 2016, 2017, and 2018 versions of MSU have been described as a 7-6 caliber team with high variance (landing with respectively 3, 9, and 7 wins [rather than 7/7/7] on the whim of random chance) around here. PSU has been above that level all of these years.
(3) how have we gotten this far into the conversation without seeing if you agree with this statement: "In terms of clock management and 4th down management, James Franklin may well be** the worst in-game decision-maker in the Big Ten."
**(i.e., in a group of the worst 2-4 at this aspect of
Coaching)
For #3, you do realize that Franklin has more 4th quarter comebacks than any other coach in the B1G over the last 3 years, right? However, I will admit that there's room for improvement.
For #1, I have no idea how you can possibly think that Franklin underachieved in his first two years. He only had something like 45 players on scholarship!! I think he had 3 o-lineman on scholarship when he came in. How on earth can you say he was underrated facing that kind of challenge?
For #2, MSU is a really good team and has a habit of stepping up in big games. Even so, I agree that PSU has had more talent the last 3 years. Probably explains PSU's better record.
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In further news, according to Phil Steele, Penn State is the 127th youngest team out of 130 teams.
Side note: Purdue is the youngest team, ranked 130.
Phil Steele Breakdown (https://philsteele.com/2019/07/01/2019-two-deep-class-breakdown/)
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Here's my game by game prediction for the season:
Idaho: 99% win
Buffalo: 95% win
Pitt: 75% win
Maryland: 75% win
Purdue: 70% win
Iowa: 25% win
Michigan: 60% win
Michigan State: 40% win
Minnesota: 60% win
Indiana: 90% win
Ohio State: 25% win
Rutgers: 95% win
I'm expecting an 8 or 9 win season overall. The talent is there to win 10+ games, but the team is so young I expect some growing pains.
If you're wondering why I give PSU the edge against Michigan, it's partially due to home field advantage, and partially because I like how Penn State matches up defensively. Also I'm a homer, so there's that...
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I am, without sarcasm, genuinely happy you are so satisfied. My fingers are crossed the fan base *unanimously* shares that satisfaction.
I am also, without sarcasm, sincerely hopeful that no matter what records James produces in the upcoming years that I am proven fully incorrect as PSU keeps him until he asks to retire.
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I am, without sarcasm, genuinely happy you are so satisfied. My fingers are crossed the fan base *unanimously* shares that satisfaction.
I am also, without sarcasm, sincerely hopeful that no matter what records James produces in the upcoming years that I am proven fully incorrect as PSU keeps him until he asks to retire.
I'm sure there are some out there not happy with Franklin. But they are an extreme minority at the moment.
"No matter what records" -- nice.
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Depth chart was released yesterday.
All of my predictions were fairly adequate, with a few interesting notes:
1. Defense Ends: I somehow forgot that Shareef Miller was an early NFL departure. Other than that, the preview remains the same.
2. 4 Running Backs are listed as co-starters. However, Franklin did say that Ricky Slade will get the start and the bulk of most reps. Interesting that the freshman are so good that it looks like both will burn their red shirts this year.
3. Penn State's former doctor filed a lawsuit saying that Franklin pressured him into clearing guys before he felt comfortable, and it cost him his job. That's going to be hard to sell given that the guy that replaced him is even MORE conservative with letting players back on the field. He was the team doctor during the Paterno and BOB years. Oh, and the new guy is local, as opposed to being 2-3 hours away.
I will keep an open mind, but on the surface it is pretty weak sauce. No specifics, no documentation, just a vague complaint that Franklin was harassing him about clearing kids to play football. Are we talking sprained pinkies, or are we talking concussions? Was this any different than Harbaugh calling the Michigan team doctor and asking him to review his guys again before the game? I'll take a wait and see approach for now.
Also, it sounds like PSU's legal team is willing to fight this, and they are notorious for settling anything.
4. The graduate transfer Weston Carr isn't even on the 3 deep at the WR position. He was a Div II all-american. I'm starting to think Penn State's WR unit may be better than I thought.
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The doctor thing is interesting. Seems ... Game of Thronesy. The guy (Lynch) who made this claim against Franklin and got kicked out was a Penn State grad (not a guy we should expect to be biased away from the program). And the guy (Sebastianelli) who replaces him was a Paterno loyalist. Sebastianelli actually *used* to have the job before Lynch replaced him. BO'B appeared to have a distaste for Paterno loyalists and removed him. Franklin has a different relationship with Paterno loyalists and has rehired him.
That doesn't of course mean that Lynch's allegations are correct. But, correct or not, the backstory seems unusually dramatic and political.
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The doctor thing is interesting. Seems ... Game of Thronesy. The guy (Lynch) who made this claim against Franklin and got kicked out was a Penn State grad (not a guy we should expect to be biased away from the program). And the guy (Sebastianelli) who replaces him was a Paterno loyalist. Sebastianelli actually *used* to have the job before Lynch replaced him. BO'B appeared to have a distaste for Paterno loyalists and removed him. Franklin has a different relationship with Paterno loyalists and has rehired him.
That doesn't of course mean that Lynch's allegations are correct. But, correct or not, the backstory seems unusually dramatic and political.
Bold: Conjecture and only due to your personal bias. Your obvious distaste for PSU is clouding your judgement.
Italics: BOB didn't like Sebastianelli because he had numerous disagreements with him. A big part of that was because Sebastianelli was super conservative when it came to injuries. However, BOB did not have the power to remove him. He was removed because ALL of Penn State athletics was moved to the Penn State Hershey Medical Center, in a plan that long predated BOB. Obviously being 2-3 hours away isn't convenient, so Penn State is going the local route again.
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BBTS - seems this Sean Clifford has impressed some of the diehards.What say you
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Distaste? PSU is my ... alma mater. Except that my Michigan fandom overrides the others, I root for PSU and enjoy when they do well. The distinction (and heart of our recent conversations) is that I don't expect Franklin to be good enough. This is not the same thing as distaste. For whichever missteps, Franklin is likable and so is PSU.
In any event, I never specified behind-the-scenes goings-on. I just painted broad brush strokes that, whether the deeper details/motivations are true or not, look on the outside to be Game of Thronesy. Because even if it isn't actually a thick plot, it looks like one.
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BBTS - seems this Sean Clifford has impressed some of the diehards.What say you
I think I mentioned in my preview that he had a 399.7 QB rating last year...hahaha
In all honesty I think he will do well. Unfortunately he follows one of Penn State's all time greats, so even a great performance will probably be a slight downgrade.
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Distaste? PSU is my ... alma mater. Except that my Michigan fandom overrides the others, I root for PSU and enjoy when they do well. The distinction (and heart of our recent conversations) is that I don't expect Franklin to be good enough. This is not the same thing as distaste. For whichever missteps, Franklin is likable and so is PSU.
In any event, I never specified behind-the-scenes goings-on. I just painted broad brush strokes that, whether the deeper details/motivations are true or not, look on the outside to be Game of Thronesy. Because even if it isn't actually a thick plot, it looks like one.
Like I said, I have a "wait and see" attitude at the moment. We don't have enough information to draw any conclusions.
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I'm working it both ways. "Wait and see" in terms of serious judgment. "Game of Thrones" in terms of surface appearances.
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If Penn State can over come the Sandusky scandal they can over come this latest mole hill. Sounds more like a disgruntled former employee but the NCAA and PSU need to investigate and report the facts.
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This kerfuffle makes me wonder if FSMB (federation of state medical boards) shouldn't have a keener eye on the doctors for every big time sports team.
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A quick note before the season begins:
James Franklin believes this is his best defense ever. Pretty crazy considering the 2014 defense was #2 in nation. He did caveat his comment by saying that things could go different in an actual game.
He is very confident in every single position on defense. Penn State will need an excellent defense to help a young offense. If things go well PSU might get 10 wins.
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It's not a crazy statement.
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It's not a crazy statement.
I am really hopeful that the improvements on special teams and defense will offset the pretty big losses on offense.
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Just the opposite of Michigan who's defense is a shadow of last years
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Just the opposite of Michigan who's defense is a shadow of last years
You and I talk about this a lot.
No one knows what Michigan's defense will be yet but "Shadow of 2018" sounds like hyperbole. In 3 seasons at Michigan, Don Brown still hasn't had anything below a Top 5 defense. Maybe this will be his first (I am betting it will be lower), but that drop is more likely to only go as far as, let's say, #10 nationally than, let's say, #20. And that's if the big drop happens at all. Again, I'm betting it will, but in 2017 the defense lost far more (11 NFLers on defense, 8 of those were drafted defensemen from the nation's #1 defense in 2016) and Brown still turned that 1 returning starter into a Top 5 defense ... and this time his job is (in theory) less hard than it was that time because he lost a lot less going into 2019 than going into 2017.
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Because M losses Marshall,Mone,Gary,Winovich - up front,Bush behind them,Long - Gone.Didn't that DB Kinnel lead the team in tackles?-Gone.Watson another DB was tied for team lead in interceptions - gone.Not being facetious when I say last years Buckeye offense might put up 100 on the new comers.Sorry I'm not buying.M is fortunate that it seems to be a lean year for conference offenses.So they shouldn't find themselsves looking thru their earholes too much.M Fans better hope JH keeps his mitts off the offense - that's where you're hanging your hat.I'm just not listening to the carnival barking about Don Brown's defense this season.Because any defensive stats will be fattened up on inept offenses
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Because M losses Marshall,Mone,Gary,Winovich - up front,Bush behind them,Long - Gone.Didn't that DB Kinnel lead the team in tackles?-Gone.Watson another DB was tied for team lead in interceptions - gone.Not being facetious when I say last years Buckeye offense might put up 100 on the new comers.Sorry I'm not buying.M is fortunate that it seems to be a lean year for conference offenses.So they shouldn't find themselsves looking thru their earholes too much.M Fans better hope JH keeps his mitts off the offense - that's where you're hanging your hat.I'm just not listening to the carnival barking about Don Brown's defense this season.Because any defensive stats will be fattened up on inept offenses
If there is one thing I have learned over time, a "ranked" defense doesn't mean much. I have found that typically highly ranked defenses tend to play ball control, "3 yards and a cloud of dust" football. It's easy to make your defensive stats look good when the opposing offense gets half of the possessions they normally would.
1994 Penn State is a great example. It was, perhaps, the best offense in college football history. I think they averaged less than 2 minutes per scoring drive. This gave opposing offenses more possessions, and more opportunities to score. Pundits claimed that the Penn State defense was average, but a closer look at the stats showed that Penn State's defense was actually pretty darn good. Especially when considering that the defense was typically on 2nd and 3rd string players shortly after halftime.
Similarly, a closer look at Michigan's 2018 stats shows that their defense was good, but not great. Certainly not top 5. More like top 20, POSSIBLY top 10, if you're feeling generous.
Gattis is from the Moorhead offensive school, and should provide a big play, quick strike offense. This means more possessions for opponents, and more points scored against. They will have more blowout wins and more time for the second string as well. I expect their defensive ranking to drop, but it is quite possible they will put a better defensive product on the field.
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I see what you are saying,the old "there are lies,damn lies and statistics".This could be M's year because of the offense coming to fruition and other squads thinning out.Get while the gettings good
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Because M losses Marshall,Mone,Gary,Winovich - up front,Bush behind them,Long - Gone.Didn't that DB Kinnel lead the team in tackles?-Gone.Watson another DB was tied for team lead in interceptions - gone.Not being facetious when I say last years Buckeye offense might put up 100 on the new comers.Sorry I'm not buying.M is fortunate that it seems to be a lean year for conference offenses.So they shouldn't find themselsves looking thru their earholes too much.M Fans better hope JH keeps his mitts off the offense - that's where you're hanging your hat.I'm just not listening to the carnival barking about Don Brown's defense this season.Because any defensive stats will be fattened up on inept offenses
You keep doing this. Yes those 2018 players were awesome. But "awesome in 2018" doesn't mean "better than 2016's." The guys lost off the 2016 team were both better in total quality and total number of guys.
Coloring the Michigan back-ups in red and starters in black:
From 2016 to 2017, Michigan lost:
- Jabrill Peppers (drafted 1st Rd)
- Taco Charlton (drafted 1st Rd)
- Chris Wormley (drafted 3rd Rd)
- Jourdan Lewis (drafted 3rd Rd)
- Delano Hill (drafted 3rd Rd)
- Ben Gedeon (drafted 4th Rd)
- Ryan Glasgow (drafted 4th Rd)
- Jeremy Clark (drafted 6th Rd)
- Matt Godin (UDFA)
- Channing Stribling (UDFA)
- Dymonte Thomas (UDFA)
From 2018 to 2019, Michigan lost:
- Devin Bush (drafted 1st Rd)
- Rashan Gary (drafted 1st Rd)
- Chase Winovich (drafted 3rd Rd)
- David Long (drafted 3rd Rd)
- Tyree Kinnell (UDFA)
- Brandon Watson (UDFA)
- Bryan Mone (UDFA)
- Lawrence Marshall (UDFA)
(...)
It's just not factual that 2018 to 2019 lost more talent. It's still a LOT of talent. But it's obviously less than 2016 to 2017 ... and despite those bigger losses, Don Brown still accomplished a Top 5 defense nationally.
I'm just not listening to the carnival barking about Don Brown's defense this season.Because any defensive stats will be fattened up on inept offenses
You can call it Carnival Barking if you like, but Don Brown has the national results and has had them every year. Not many DCs can say they've ever had two defenses ranked #1 in the nation let alone Top 5 defenses after four regular seasons in a row.
Besides, every top defense in America adds its performance against inept offenses into its national ranking. Every one of them. No one plays Alabama every week.
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If there is one thing I have learned over time, a "ranked" defense doesn't mean much. I have found that typically highly ranked defenses tend to play ball control, "3 yards and a cloud of dust" football. It's easy to make your defensive stats look good when the opposing offense gets half of the possessions they normally would.
1994 Penn State is a great example. It was, perhaps, the best offense in college football history. I think they averaged less than 2 minutes per scoring drive. This gave opposing offenses more possessions, and more opportunities to score. Pundits claimed that the Penn State defense was average, but a closer look at the stats showed that Penn State's defense was actually pretty darn good. Especially when considering that the defense was typically on 2nd and 3rd string players shortly after halftime.
That effect is elided if you use efficiency stats that weight defensive performance per drive, per position the offense puts them in, and play-by-play. These also tend to be opponent adjusted. If we wanted to be snarky, we could say that counting stats are for suckers. S&P+ and FEI, as the most famous examples, are more holistic and avoid more biases of incomplete interpretation.
Similarly, a closer look at Michigan's 2018 stats shows that their defense was good, but not great. Certainly not top 5. More like top 20, POSSIBLY top 10, if you're feeling generous.
I've been quoting all of the Don Brown regular seasons on the basis of S&P+. Michigan finished the regular season in the Top 5 and fell to #9 after the bowl game (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadef/2018).
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Watson tied for team interception lead - don't care where he was drafted.Marshall/Mone were the nose tackles don't care were they were drafted.Michigan is missing a ton of talent that you,youself were espousing robustly last season.And Aubrey Solomon a former 4*-5* transfered out.Now they're not all that?but the guys who couldn't beat them out or filling in will effectively replace them?Not buying but your offense appears rather loaded so there's that
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You keep focusing on Watson, Mone and Marshall. Literally zero of them were starters. Aubrey Solomon was also not a starter.
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I remain surprised that this conversation is going nowhere. Why are you so closed to the "nuance" that the guys we lost from 2018 were AMAZING but the ones lost from 2016 were EVEN BETTER?
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I join this fascinating discussion only to add that averaging 9-win seasons is pretty good for job security. See Brian Kelly at Notre Dame. He is actually closing in on the record for most wins by any head coach at Notre Dame (side note, he already has the most losses)--now it will take a couple more years because of the vacated wins (which are now losses) in 2012/2013. One championship game appearance, and one college football playoff appearance (with beat downs both times) have been enough. It's probably helped that USC has been down, somewhat helping him protect his record in rivalry games, but if 9 wins is enough at ND, it's going to be enough in most places.
Harbaugh's warm-ish seat is similar to Cooper's, in that all it would take is a couple of wins against Ohio State and a Big Ten Championship or two to cool it back down.
Also, expectations are everything on this. Michigan's expectations for Harbaugh have always been higher than PSU's for Franklin. PSU was emerging from a very dark place as a program, which tempered expectations (although I'm sure they recently built way back up), whereas Michigan's problems came from two bad hires in a row--and Urban Meyer, which did not temper expectations. Harbaugh is supposed to deliver at the highest heights; Franklin merely needs to make PSU a player in the Big Ten East again (which he has done).
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(1) How do fans feel about Kelly? I paid less attention when the series dropped off but am anticipating a quote that goes something like "not, per se, terrible." Which isn't to downplay his two great seasons, just to emphasize that he's always seemed to have more headwinds against him than other ND coaches with winning seasons
(2) I wouldn't say Michigan is back to historic expectations. So Harbaugh is still benefiting quite a bit from picking up what we see as a "spiraling toward bottomed-out" program after Rodriguez and Hoke. Harbaugh's job expectations will shift after the first season with an OSU win and conference championship. Until then, he's kind of on a rebuilding easy street. "Win 10 games and usually beat MSU" and his seat is cool.
Afterwards? Hard to say, but I doubt the fan base (and AD?) will stay as realistic as they have been (so far) once Harbaugh gets out of this rebuilding phase and enters maintenance mode.
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Fans don't love Kelly, but they don't hate him enough to get the admin to send him packing. That's the thing about averaging pretty good seasons, with an occasional great one. Typically that's good enough.
Kelly benefited from four bad hires (only three of whom coached) before him, but the death of the video operator was a big issue, as were his tantrums, early. Playing for a national championship in year 3 helped him a lot, though getting crushed in it tempered that a bit. Curiously, I don't get the sense that the sanctions wiping out all the wins in 2012/13 did much damage to him, but maybe I just haven't been following closely enough. 2016 was bad, but a 4-win season would be bad for any coach. However, making the playoff last year bought him at least a couple more years (barring something stunning). Only four coaches have been at ND longer than Kelly, and you've heard of them: Rockne (13 seasons), Leahy (11), Parseghian (11), and Holtz (11). His .704 win percentage is behind them, Layden, and Devine.
If Kelly can get a national championship, they will make a statue of him. If not, he will be remembered as the worst of all worlds (except the Willingham and Weis worlds): good enough to keep his job, not good enough to take ND where it expects to go.
He's 57 now, going into a year ranked in the top 10, with two very tough games on the schedule (at Georgia, at Michigan), so the likelihood of another CFB playoff berth this year is low, but expectations are for a 9-to-10 win season, which is easily good enough to keep him around. That schedule also sets the Irish up for a great season, because outside of those two games, the only other ranked opponent (preseason) on the calendar is at #25 Stanford. A couple of big road wins, and the Irish could definitely be in the playoff again.
But I also think that Notre Dame's fan base is in danger of permanently lowered expectations. It's been a long time since 1988, and a lot of great coaches have done well at places other than Notre Dame. All the new alumni over the last 20+ years have only heard of ND's greatness, they haven't witnessed it. This is especially true because literally every time the Irish have been close over that time, the last game was a blowout loss:
2000 (Bob Davie's best year): blowout loss to Oregon State in the Fiesta Bowl;
2002 (Willingham's big start): blowout loss to NC State, to finish on a three-game slide;
2005 (Weis's first year, the year of the Bush Push): 14-point loss to the Buckeyes in the Fiesta (and most people remember that it felt like a blowout);
2006: blowout loss to LSU in the Sugar Bowl (immediately after a blowout loss at USC);
2013 (MNC): just a whuppin--it was probably worse than the 28-point loss looks on paper;
2018 (CFB): another beat down; at least Clemson did the same to Alabama the next week.
That's a lot of hard landings. Winning the Hawaii, Sun, Pinstripe, and Music City Bowls doesn't heal much. The Citrus over LSU was nice, but still, not close to the big games other programs are winning.
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That was a high effort response - Thanks! I will say that I expected Kelly's decade to go differently. He always had the talent and the top assistants. But going 1-3 (the one win has been forfeited) versus Rodriguez and Hoke in night games felt hard to overcome. And yet he did. Another reason to wonder what the series could have looked like if continued through '15, '16, and '17.
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I remain surprised that this conversation is going nowhere. Why are you so closed to the "nuance" that the guys we lost from 2018 were AMAZING but the ones lost from 2016 were EVEN BETTER?
:character0029: Ask yourself the same about Franklin/PSU.Pot/kettle what's Don Brown 0-6 the last two games of the year,just win baby.But you're quick to point out what Franklin is against M or with out Moorhead.The 2016 group was the 85 Bears next to last years squad that I know but you were also excited about last years squad.0-6 with out evidence of remotely replacing what was lost - IMO.Well at least Brown has that offenseto fall back on like Franklin had Moorehead
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You keep focusing on Watson, Mone and Marshall. Literally zero of them were starters. Aubrey Solomon was also not a starter.
They played and filled out the defense and believe Solomon was counted on moving forward
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:character0029: Ask yourself the same about Franklin/PSU.Pot/kettle what's Don Brown 0-6 the last two games of the year,just win baby.But you're quick to point out what Franklin is against M or with out Moorhead.The 2016 group was the 85 Bears next to last years squad that I know but you were also excited about last years squad.0-6 with out evidence of remotely replacing what was lost - IMO.Well at least Brown has that offenseto fall back on like Franklin had Moorehead
You're jumping around a lot. It's hard to get used to.
With where Michigan is as a program, they aren't judged based on OSU anymore. They are judged based on hitting 10 wins and how they do against the conference's other teams in this tier. That's PSU, MSU, and UW. When Harbaugh came in Michigan was -- head to head -- well below all of those. Now the program has climbed to be -- head to head -- above all of those. And the climb continues.
Franklin has similar expectations to keep (to win ~10 games on average and be better than MSU head-to-head and equal or better than Michigan head-to-head.
I've been consistent in this talking point. Now you may disagree with me that these are the best standards to judge Harbaugh and Franklin, but if that's how you feel and if you want a coherent conversation, the thing to say is "I disagree with those standards," rather than continually change the conversation to say whatever is on your mind that second.
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They played and filled out the defense and believe Solomon was counted on moving forward
Sure. But the point remains that the 2016 to 2017 transition lost even more depth and starting talent than the 2018 to 2019 transition.
It's just math. We can count and compare the starters lost. We can count and compare the "starters plus depth guys" lost. We can count and compare the sacks, TFLs, tackles, PBUs and INTs lost.
In. Every single. One of. These. Comparisons. The 2016 to 2017 transition lost more guys/talent/production than the 2018 to 2019 transition.
Which shouldn't be surprising. Because although 2018's defense was pretty good, the 2016 defense was probably bar-none the best in Michigan history and 11 of those guys (10 starters) went to the NFL.
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You're jumping around a lot. It's hard to get used to. Just following your lead I noticed you couldn't help yourself commenting on my remark to BBTS - you got a response
With where Michigan is as a program, they aren't judged based on OSU anymore. Nor is PSUs HC to be judged by a Michigan fan whose present coach hasn't won a BTC and the coach he's cracking on has.My view of M's defense isn't anymore slanted than anything you've presented in these 7 pages
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But I still haven't really gotten a response. Because I can't tell if you think Michigan's 2019 defense lost more than the 2017 defense. I can ask nicely. Hey Nubbz, please say what you think on this? It'll be good to understand your point. Because if your point isn't to compare whether 2017 lost more than 2019 but just to say 2019 lost a lot, then we always agreed and this conversation was not worth having.
My point meanwhile has been that 2019 lost a ton. Interestingly, though, 2017 lost even more and still finished in the Top 5. Take that and mix it with the fact that all of Michigan's defenses have been consistently in this range, and it makes a defensive drop out of the Top 15 seem possible (because anything is possible) but also improbable as far as predictions go.
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Also of course it doesn't matter at all how I (a rando Michigan fan) judge PSU. However, it is quite common for masses of other people to judge PSU on their ability to beat Michigan on the field. As well as how often PSU beats other teams "in their tier," like MSU and UW. And a majority of those people are not me. Heck, significantly less than 50% of them are even Michigan fans.
This isn't actually about you or me. This is an emotionless fun thing where we try to predict PSU's future with the best arguments we have.
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What masses?how many of you are in there,Sheez .I hear alot more crap about Harbaugh's income and lack of correlating results.Than the supposed lynch mob headed to Happy Valley.You're putting the cart before the horse and I won't even mention what's in it.I've been telling what I think all along,DB's trajectory is at least the same as JF's at least.I'm not chewing my cud twice.
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PSU fans, Michigan fans, MSU fans, Wisconsin fans ... very many Big Ten and national CFB fans evaluate a program like PSU for how well it does against peers. This should not be a worldview-shattering thing for you to read. Very many college football fans likewise evaluate Michigan for how it does against PSU and MSU and ditto on down the line.
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many evaluate Michigan for how it does against tOSU
hopefully their peer
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Nubbz, I'm also interested: What cart am I putting before the horse? Is this the Franklin thing or the Michigan defense thing?
If the Franklin thing: yeah, of course I am. That's what it means to make a multi-year guess.
If it's the Michigan defense thing: I'm confused. You seem to be guaranteeing that Michigan's defense will drop a lot.. That's an example of putting a cart before the horse. And all I've said is "maybe not" and have supported my "maybe not" by pointing out that the defense has lost even more than this (2016) and put together a better defensive national ranking (2017) than what you were predicting for 2019.
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many evaluate Michigan for how it does against tOSU
No doubt. And that makes good sense to them because it makes good sense historically. But Michigan's AD (and most of its fans) clearly aren't doing that anymore. It's a trying to be smart and humble thing. Because Michigan is coming from the post-Carr doldrums. And, from that perspective, saying things like "welp, still worse than Alabama" is too pixelated of a view to notice whether there's good progress.
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Michigan is fortunate as only a few squads will expose that sliding unit.But their offense will be such a bastard that no one will take notice.Franklin isn't going anywhere he'll recruit Pa and the East very well and Harbaugh can't hang his hat on hired guns under center forever.Of course maybe the new immediate portal may work for him at QB as it doesn't appear he's going to develop one.And Brown meh,he did well with Hoke's recruits
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We're friends so it's cool but we should point out the double standard here -- that you're calling it "putting the cart before the horse" when I make my prediction about Franklin but not when you make your prediction about Franklin. Let's make the obvious correction: both are guesses about whether Franklin will last as long as he likes. Both equally put the cart before the horse.
As for this "hired gun" QB thing: I take it you aren't impressed with Dylan McCaffery. You don't need to be, but it's funny that you're confident he can't be special. The coaches and fans like him a lot. He seems to be developing well for a sophomore and looked sharp in tough moments when Shea was injured last year. As an added bonus, he has good speed and instincts as a runner.
Then for Brown doing well with Hoke's recruits. Yes he did. He took Hoke's kids and made them the #1 defense in the country in 2016. That doesn't seem to impress you, either. But it surely isn't a reason to knock the guy. He has also kept the defense at that "Top 5 nationally" level with his and Harbaugh's recruits. I know you've heard of Devin Bush, Rashan Gary, David Long, Lavert Hill, etc., and it's not like Michigan ever stopped recruiting well.
Whether it's with his guys or his predecessors, Don Brown's record so far makes him the best DC Michigan has had since ... well that's not an easy question but you'd definitely have to go back before 2000 to get the answer.
Maybe you're just a tough guy to impress.
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Nothing Harbaugh's developed has been special not that he can't be.Let's cut to the chase - for some half cocked reason you seem to think it's open season on PSU and it's coach.I've responded in kind about M.Everything I've posted here about JH/DB came from.....Michigan Boards.....and some from Mike Valenti.I've pointed out that when Joe Moorehead arrived the talent arrived ahead of him,courtesy of who?.When he got to Miss St Dan Mullen left him the same thing.We'll find out what old Joe is made of in a couple years.Any way you kept harping Franklin didn't do squat w/o Moorehead just the same as JH hasn't done squat w/o QB transfers.A coach utilizises what's at his disposal.So what JF hasn't won the BTC in alsmost 3 years.JH has yet to get there,you can't or don't want to see the irony.And I don't want to hear about DB and statistics 0-6 is the one foisted the most over on MLIVE,Stadium and Main or MGO at the end of last season.I'm beginning to think your henpeck/heresy is just what you want to unfold.Pa is a talent rich state and the HC of it Fagship University can recruit.That's an obstacle to M Football and really the rub isn't it?Let's pick this up after the season
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Football is definitely fun. No doubt this conversation will come up across the season and we'll enjoy saying the same things at each other all over again. It'll be a hoot. ;) Cheers!
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Linebackers:
I don't know what most observers would think of the 2018 squad, but I felt the linebackers were the weakest part of the defense. Even freak athlete, Micah Parsons, seemed to always be tackling people 7 yards downfield. However, the unit did improve over the course of the year, and return everyone. I expect this to be the most improved unit on the team, but perhaps not as dominating as most of the press is predicting.
I watched some of the highlights and Brandon Smith appeared quite a bit,very solid.Looked him up and he was the No 1 rated ILB in the Nation according to 247 and NO 1 rated player in VA.Great get and just a FR jeebis paired with Parsons (who the Buckeyes went all in for) and those LB's are stout/athletic/solid
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I watched some of the highlights and Brandon Smith appeared quite a bit,very solid.Looked him up and he was the No 1 rated ILB in the Nation according to 247 and NO 1 rated player in VA.Great get and just a FR jeebis paired with Parsons (who the Buckeyes went all in for) and those LB's are stout/athletic/solid
Brandon Smith (LB) was SUPER impressive. Also very impressive:
Jordan Stout (Transfer - kickoffs and FG) - 13 touchbacks and 1 50+ yard field goal
Devyn Ford (Freshman RB)
However, we can't take too much from this game, given the opponent.
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Unless the angle was very low over midget opposition, I think it's safe to call a 50+ yard FG "opponent invariant."
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Unless the angle was very low over midget opposition, I think it's safe to call a 50+ yard FG "opponent invariant."
Technically correct is the best kind of correct.
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Feels like sarcasm, but I am expecting you agree with me that a 50+ yard FG is always special. This hasn't been a yes-sir thread. Maybe agreement just looks weird.
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Feels like sarcasm, but I am expecting you agree with me that a 50+ yard FG is always special. This hasn't been a yes-sir thread. Maybe agreement just looks weird.
Just saying that I technically should have put a caveat on my Stout topics, but I didn't. He's a difference maker and will certainly improve the changes for Penn State to have a good season!
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Good article below on Pat Narduzzi at Pitt who Penn St plays in two more weekends.
Pitt is a program I’ve never been able to understand. Walt Harris leads them to the BCS - fire him. Wannstedt reels in 10 win seasons and top 25 recruiting - get rid of him. Narduzzi is mediocre compared to both of them (28-25 record) and just weaseled a contract extension through 2024.
https://triblive.com/sports/tim-benz-pitt-is-stuck-in-the-middle-with-pat-narduzzi/
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Pitt's a tough sell not really an ideal collegiate venue
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Pitt has always seemed like a good example of a failed helmet. Take a program that's any amount smaller than "too big to fail" (a good definition for a helmet program), mix it with helmet-level ego, and you get a weird collage of success/mediocrity/failure mixed with weirdly elevated expectations.
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Pitt's a tough sell not really an ideal collegiate venue
Is the campus itself the problem?
I've read glowing descriptions of the modern, revived city of Pittsburgh.
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Haven't been to Pittsburgh in at least 15 years but the campus is urban and they play in the Steelers Stadium.ELA could prolly tell you more,but they don't get great crowds.Like the "U" I'm guessen'.Tough for a City to support a pro and college programs.Hell just look at LA.
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Pitt has always had a way of shooting themselves in the foot. They did win their division last season, despite going 7-7. I know many Pitt fans were hoping that this year they would see some improvement, but that UVA game was ugly.
They had a mediocre year in 2016, but beat the national champs and the Big Ten champs.
They stopped Penn State's hope of a Big East football conference, and a few years later barely managed to end up in the ACC somehow.
Pitt was ranked #1 once, I believe Marino was their QB. Their final game was against Penn State. They jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but ended up losing 48-14. This was their only hope at truly becoming a helmet school. They have not sniffed that kind of greatness since. Here's a great highlight if you have 9 minutes. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ulj5NSiaD8)
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ulj5NSiaD8)
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Wannstedt reels in 10 win seasons and top 25 recruiting - get rid of him. Narduzzi is mediocre compared to both of them (28-25 record) and just weaseled a contract extension through 2024.
Wannstedt 42-31 in 6 seasons
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Wow. Epic collapse.
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Wannstedt 42-31 in 6 seasons
Wannstedt was 26-12 in his last three seasons. Pitt was establishing higher footing than their usual 7-6 equilibrium. Not to mention yielding top 25 rankings in both the polls and recruiting. And Wannstedt, a local boy, was a good face for Pitt who’d somewhat cut into Ohio State and Penn State taking their first pick of Western Pennsylvania’s high school talent.
The AD couldn’t see it that way at the time, instead opting for risky hires that didn’t amount to anything. I guess it’s like what Anonymous Coward pointed out - Pitt’s internally reinforced mediocrity is what happens when a non-helmet acts like a helmet.
FWIW I think Pitt did well in hiring Chryst and Narduzzi in the sense those are safe and responsible hires, but Narduzzi’s contract extension is almost as senseless as what Auburn gave to Gus.
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Just pulling this up to compare our preseason musings to what actually happened on the field.
The only position I feel I missed on was the secondary. The safety play was good against the run, but really struggled against the pass. And when I say struggled, I mean they were terrible. For example, the cotton bowl had a big play from Memphis in which it appeared CB John Reid was out of position. In reality, the safety was out of position.
The wide receivers (with the exception of KJ Hamler) also didn't meet my expectations.
Outside of Micah Parsons, Penn State's linebackers were just OK.
Other than that, I think my preview was fairly accurate.
Amusing the see the banter earlier in this thread. :)
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I've read glowing descriptions of the modern, revived city of Pittsburgh.
I interviewed there in 1980, a long time ago, and everyone told me how much the city had improved. To me, it was a dump, outside a bit of downtown, so I wondered what it was like "before". I was back briefly around 2002 and it seemed about the same to me, old, kind of dirty, a bit run down, but I know every city has nice and bad places.
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Wannstedt was 26-12 in his last three seasons. Pitt was establishing higher footing than their usual 7-6 equilibrium. Not to mention yielding top 25 rankings in both the polls and recruiting. And Wannstedt, a local boy, was a good face for Pitt who’d somewhat cut into Ohio State and Penn State taking their first pick of Western Pennsylvania’s high school talent.
The AD couldn’t see it that way at the time, instead opting for risky hires that didn’t amount to anything. I guess it’s like what Anonymous Coward pointed out - Pitt’s internally reinforced mediocrity is what happens when a non-helmet acts like a helmet.
FWIW I think Pitt did well in hiring Chryst and Narduzzi in the sense those are safe and responsible hires, but Narduzzi’s contract extension is almost as senseless as what Auburn gave to Gus.
I think the big thing with Wannstedt was he was there for 6 years and never won the conference and the administration just didn’t see any reason why that couldn’t or shouldn’t have happened in 6 years. Especially considering when he took over Pitt seemed to be in pretty good shape following Harris.
In that time their fans saw WVU, Louisville, and Cincinnati all go to BCS bowls and finish top 10. The straw that broke his back (and Bill Stewart’s back) was UConn winning the conference in 2010. It was so understood that shouldn’t have happened him and Stew got ran out of town and Edsall got the Maryland job because if it.
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I saw some bands in Pittsburgh, and the show was on the 6th floor of a building with no elevator. The line to get in went all the way down to the ground floor. So you had to climb six flights of stairs at the snail's pace of standing in line.
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not on my short list
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Is the campus itself the problem?
I've read glowing descriptions of the modern, revived city of Pittsburgh.
I've been here since 2006, and I'm shocked at the transformation even since then. My wife and I always say we had kids at the just wrong time to really enjoy all it has, compared to 20 years ago. It certainly still has the old steel town "feel" though, so you have to be ok with that. I was speaking to my cousing who works in the hospitality business in Boston, after going to school in Connecticut, and she was saying when she got out of college in 2007, everyone was flocking to Boston as the up and coming town, but in the last couple years, it's becoming Pittsburgh, because of how cheap housing and entertainment are, so you have a lot of younger professionals moving there, because they can afford more that a shared studio apartment.
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I saw some bands in Pittsburgh, and the show was on the 6th floor of a building with no elevator. The line to get in went all the way down to the ground floor. So you had to climb six flights of stairs at the snail's pace of standing in line.
Hope it was more than just a local Polka Gig
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Hope it was more than just a local Polka Gig
Just barely.
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I've been here since 2006.........
Is Blue Lou's/Mario's still there?We use to drink yards of Beer served in those long hand blown glass beakers set in a wood rack.How about the Gandy Dancer?They use to have good Food
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Is Blue Lou's/Mario's still there?We use to drink yards of Beer served in those long hand blown glass beakers set in a wood rack.How about the Gandy Dancer?They use to have good Food
There are multiple Mario's now, I haven't been to one in probably 8 years.
The weird thing about Gandy Dancer is that it is the casual dining attached to Grand Concourse, but growing up in Ann Arbor, Gandy Dancer was THE fancy establishment for dining in Ann Arbor until the more recent restaurant explosion, and the two are owned by the same company, which operates only 5. Those two, plus seafood places in Grand Rapids, St. Clair, and Southfield.