CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Drew4UTk on August 02, 2019, 08:36:36 PM
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Sportsbooks and handicappers take all the fun out of a simple determination of who's better than their opponent for the week in question. They make the game as even as possible, and basically make it a game of chance. Stupid. Yeah, i get there is a lot more to it than that and that the wagers push the lines and all, but....
there is a way to beat it consistently. i mean, if you're into that kinda thing.
With sportsbooks opening in a state near you if not your state and as a result of the Supreme Court of this Land's decision in May 2018, it's gonna be a lot more common a discussion. I don't mind the conversation- it hones my own skill and influences my own--- activities. BUT. we are a site (cfb51) that intends to avoid capture by corporate servers and routers, and so you guys can continue to post during down time at work. I mean, we all do it (i 'did'- since retired... sorta)... I've made the site as mobile friendly as i can and i'm always open to thoughts to make it better... but please, hold your ideas on that until mid January, else i'll goof things up here and make the beginning of the season uncomfortable for all of us when i juggle code....
there is another place i also run... just launched. it focuses on sports betting, and primarily NCAAF, NCAAB, and NFL... I'm looking to lasso those who do this and create a 'group think' and in effort to game the house... to anticipate when the lines cross suitable and such. it's NOT that i outright support it; it's that i see an opening to expand, and to protect this site. they are two totally different websites on two totally different URL's and SSL's, and with intent to protect this site from conversations that could blacklist us on corporate type servers/routers/switches/hubs. So if we talk this talk, we should do so over there.
Also, there is a little game on this new site that my group (around 190 of us, friends and friends of friends) has/have played for a long time. We just call it 'the pool', but.... I called it "The Group of Twelve Evaluation" on this other site. If you have any interest in this, check out this article:
https://www.cfb51-line.com/2019/08/02/group-of-twelve-lite-version/ (https://www.cfb51-line.com/2019/08/02/group-of-twelve-lite-version/)
.... the 'LITE" version will run as long as there is any interest. We're gonna use the full version to keep up with each other across the expanse we've all escaped to- and to share metrics and methods, as always. Again, I don't like sportsbooks- so i combat them.. I DO love a good "pick'em", though. this particular one may gain you a paying contract to contribute articles and after something of an evaluation of your ability- and IF that skill is shared with the group. and, on aside, the forum over there is a taste of what the forum here will look something like in January as software evolves... evolves some more... continuously evolves.. gotta love it.
consider this an invite... and, if you want access just ask. i got a stack of free season passes :) .... also, feel free to share your invitation with who you like.
at any rate- check out the link and submit your 'group of 12 lite' picks and we'll compare them if anyone wants to... we can do that here so long as certain words aren't used. the evaluation is at the bottom of the article... a word salad in a text sandwich. don't judge.
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Indy sportsbooks open by Labor Day.
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tennessee went legal july 1... without a plan and without a printed regulation.. how? beats the hell out of me.
it will be only online.. zero bricks and mortar, and with some sort of geoIP locator, which anyone should know is easy to defeat.. one thing they know this far: a license will be in the $12M range.
at some point the feds are going to get involved. or, and better: there will be pacts between states.
one plan involves BW3's- really. betting while you eat. and drink.
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I've read the IN regs. Lot of tape to take bets on site. Online will also be allowed, they will use tech to verify location. Mostly casinos and OTBs have been issued licenses. It will be pretty cost prohibitive to try and run a sports bar and have a licensed book.
If you bet online you basically have to register with the state.
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https://www.cfb51-line.com/2019/08/02/group-of-twelve-lite-version/
Check the link and take the evaluation at the bottom? I gotta make sure it works in a live version!!! Thank y'all!!!
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I used to be pretty decent at handicapping, but now I just don't have the time to follow CFB closely enough to understand anything beyond Purdue, and my bias with Purdue gets in the way of fair analysis. So I'm afraid I wouldn't be much help.
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the 'weekly letter' - it amounts to a 'game of skill' weekly pool. the reward is handsome depending on participation. of course the 'prize' isn't just given away.... instead the person or group with the best picks writes an article, it could say as little as "well, i just picked em" or it could be answering questions pre-provided... and then they would receive payment for their 'contribution'.
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Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!
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circa 1995, we used to just be a bunch of guys at the bar... face to face... around 2003~4 or so, when text messaging became a capability of most phones, 'our' guy started running it through that- reaching out to the guys who had moved away and bringing them back in- which turned even more efficient when 'group' messages became a thing. one particular bowl season had every single one of us participate. it wasn't over in a week as the usual one, but... seeing as how the entry was significant ($250)- i think out of 12 bowls four people got 10 right and the rest were in the 7~8~9 range. there was a few upsets that year and then some wild choices as folks tried to be the odd player... and i think one went to OT to make it even more tricky... those four walked away with almost $12k each (the strangest thing about this one was those four didn't have duplicate entries- but they chose the same number of wins- everyone missed the tie)... there was another regular week where someone i know really well turned $50 into $7.4k, and went to St. Croix for a couple weeks for basically $50... turns out that was a waste of money- St. Croix ain't all that.... most often, though, there are splits 10+ways, and a lot of smack talk in between... the best thing about it is the simple turn- no lines, no o/u, no other goofy metrics- just winners and ties. no 2nd or 3rd, but 1st splits w/o tie breakers. simple entries, simple choices. Of course cfb51-LINE doesn't pay the 'winners' for winning... we pay the winners a commensurate amount for explaining how they come to make those choices, so it can be shared with the community and used for their(all members) own individual purposes (presumably for legal sports wagering). we select the 'winner' who demonstrates skill in the ability to pick winners, and pick their brains on how- so we can share it to the publisher and with some credibility.
i'm guessing somewhere around 50 folks will be in on week one. that is from the 'old' crew, who will likely be playing the 'old' game, as well as seeking advice from the 'weekly letter' and, perhaps, write-for-pay if they do well with the 'group of 12' evaluation....
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Prolly turned the most profit when my parrot picked them - truth
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Prolly turned the most profit when my parrot picked them - truth
Is your parrot related to CFN's Clucko the Chicken?
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Sports betting will be legal and operational in Iowa on August 15.
Nothing is going to happen in Minnesota anytime soon. The tribes that currently run casinos in this state want exclusivity on sports gambling, but in order to do so they need to re-open and renegotiate their gaming compacts. Since they make too much money from the status quo, and they are opposed to the state getting into the game, there's no push in the Legislature to change it up.
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Is your parrot related to CFN's Clucko the Chicken?
Clucko actually beat the field one year
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there's a group of about 50 of us that participate in a "pick 6" weekly
NCAA football and NFL football - maybe 50 games available to pick from. picked games Weighted 6-1. Can also pick over.under on NFL games, This is vs the spread.
The same guys usually end up in around the top ten each season.
Do you want me to invite those folks?
Mostly guys from the midwest - run by a Hawkeye and Cyclone fan
This is all run via email
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yessir @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) !!!! the point is to make it simple and effective, fun and lucrative... there are no hidden trip wires. you pick 12, that simple. those who choose the most correct split... could be one guy, could be 3/4 the field. keeping that from happening will be my job and by choosing the 12 games less likely to be easily chosen.
y'all can check the link, (it's also in the right sidebar for now 'group of 12') and dry run the game to see how it works.. i basically plop it in a spreadsheet that calculates it based on the key (actual results for the week) and spits out who did best.
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Clucko actually beat the field one year
I remember that!
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yessir @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) !!!! the point is to make it simple and effective, fun and lucrative... there are no hidden trip wires. you pick 12, that simple. those who choose the most correct split... could be one guy, could be 3/4 the field. keeping that from happening will be my job and by choosing the 12 games less likely to be easily chosen.
y'all can check the link, (it's also in the right sidebar for now 'group of 12') and dry run the game to see how it works.. i basically plop it in a spreadsheet that calculates it based on the key (actual results for the week) and spits out who did best.
I checked it, but didn't know I could dry run
Should I invite a few of the guys in my group?
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if you choose the games at the bottom (it has the game and a drop down with three choices) it will send a copy of your picks to you and to me, and i record them- while you have a recording of them too... then, we wait for the results to actually happen.
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i can call it done, now. it looks decent on a computer, but focus was on mobile. if you've been there you may need to hold shift hit refresh to clean it up. (or dump the cache on your phone/tablet).
you DO have to register... there is no way around it. it will take like 30 seconds tops.
as said, I'd appreciate you guys sharing it with friends... ought to be a fun little exercise, testing your ability to pick 'em and make a few bucks!!
https://www.cfb51-LINE.com (https://www.cfb51-line.com/)
the second product on the top... the Week ZERO Newsletter is where the 'game' resides. it's $10 to get in... you can also, if you'd like, scroll down to the LITE Version, which is the same games to be chosen, but free to access. It will demonstrate how its played or tell you how you would have done in real competition.
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I invited a couple guys.....
Beau and Loren, they run the pick 6 contest I'm in. Hopefully they will register and perhaps invite some others.
92 members in their pool this season