CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: OrangeAfroMan on February 21, 2019, 12:49:38 PM
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It's early December, 1998. After a few top teams lose, here's the playoff matchups we're left with:
1 Tennessee vs 4 Ohio St
2 FSU vs 3 Kansas St
Who wins it all?
The teams:
#1 Tennessee, 12-0, SEC Champions
19th in scoring offense
8th in scoring defense
26th strength of schedule
The Vols faced five ranked teams in 1998, and needed some luck in two of them to attain their perfect season. A 1-point win @ 17 Syracuse to open the season was followed by a win vs #2 Florida by a FG. They easily won at #7 UGA before two close wins vs #10 Arkansas and in the SECCG vs #23 Miss State.
Following Peyton Manning's departure, UT went with a run-first offense, featuring RB Lewis. He got hurt and was replaced by two Travises - Henry and Stephens. All 3 RBs were effective in moving the chains, and new QB Martin was a rushing threat near the endzone (7 rush TD). He was an efficient passer and had 3 good WRs to throw to, led by Price (920 yds, 10 TD). Martin's job was to limit mistakes, and his 6 INT were few enough that it didn't cost the team any wins.
The defense, like the offense, keyed on the running game. Teams struggled to run on the Vols' big, active DL (under 100 ypg, 2.7 ypc). However, teams found success passing on them, over 200 yards per game.
The strengths of the special teams were Price's KR and Hall's FG kicking (80%).
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#2 FSU, 11-1, ACC Champions
29th in scoring offense
3rd in scoring defense
5th strength of schedule
The Noles began the year with a win over #14 A&M before an uncharacteristic conference loss @ unranked NC State. Then FSU went on a run of 10 straight wins, including over #18 USC by twenty, at #20 GT by 27, and blowing out #12 UVa by 31. A season-ending win vs #4 Florida solidified FSU as a playoff team.
QB Weinke was an efficient passer, with only 6 INTs all season, but he barely connected on half his throws. His #1 target was WR Peter Warrick (1200+ yds, 12 TD). The running game was supplied by a pair of RBs, neither of which carried the ball for even 5 ypc.
This FSU team was reliant on its defense and special teams. You couldn't pass on these Noles (41% completion percentage, 135 ypg). You couldn't run on them, either (80 ypg rushing, 2.3 ypc). Only one team all year (NC State) was able to score more than 2 TDs in a game). With a team like that, you hope your special teams can take advantage of field position, but all 4 aspects of FSU's special teams were very strong.
WR Coles KR, all 3 PRs had great averages, Janikowski's kicking (84%, 27 FG made), and Cottrell's punting (42 yd avg) - there were no hidden yards to eek out.
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#3 Kansas State, 11-1
1st in scoring offense
9th in scoring defense
41st strength of schedule
K-State spent the entire season in the top 5. The season was back-loaded, as the Wildcats only faced #14 Colorado before November's gamut of ranked foes. Wins vs #11 Nebraska and at #19 Mizzou were offset in the BigXIICG loss to #10 A&M. The loss in the finale didn't cost KSU a spot in the playoff, however.
KSU had a big offense, scoring 31+ points in every game except the win vs CU. It was a very balanced offense (253 ypg passing, 225 ypg rushing) and explosive. QB Bishop nearly won the Heisman, throwing and running the ball effectively (159 pass rating, 700+ yards rushing - 37 total TD). RB Hickson had 900 yards himself and 9 TD. Most passes were hauled in by 2 WR: McDonald (1000+ yds) or Lockett (928 yds).
The defense was stingy against both run and pass. Teams completed only 43% of their passes and couldn't average 100 yards rushing on the Wildcats. Nine of the first ten opponents couldn't score even 10 points on KSU.
Like FSU, KSU's special teams were special. Good KR averages, great kicking game (K-Gramatica), and perhaps the best punt returner ever in David Allen (4 PR TD in '98, 22 yds per return for the season)!
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#4 Ohio State, 10-1, Big Ten Co-Champs
12th in scoring offense
2nd in scoring defense
21st strength of schedule
A John Cooper-led squad that actually beat Michigan, the Buckeyes' only slip-up was against the other team from that state - unranked MSU, by 4. OSU handled all the ranked teams on its slate - at #11 WV, #21 Mizzou, #7 Penn State, and #11 Michigan, by 15 points. There weren't any close calls.
OSU had a big offense in 1998, averaging nearly 300 yards passing AND 200 yards rushing per game! QB Germaine was efficient and didn't turn the ball over much, and RB Wiley picked up where George and Pearson left off (1200+ yds, 10 TD). Backup RB Montgomery even averaged better than 6 ypc and had 7 TD himself. WRs Boston (1400 yds, 13 TD) and Miller (900 yds) caught passes for the dynamic offense.
The defense had stars aplenty on the back end, holding opponents to 48% completion percentage. DBs Plummer, Moore, and Clement held the back end up as the run D halted opponents to under 70 yards per game.
Aside from Boston's PR, the special teams were very average.
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The marquee players:
QB Michael Bishop, Kansas St - O'Brien Award, All-American
CB Antoine Winfield, Ohio St - Thorpe, AA
K Sebastian Janikowski, FSU - Groza, AA
HC Phillip Fulmer, Tennessee - AFCA, Robinson, Home Depot Coach of the Year
HC Bill Snyder, Kansas St - AP, Bryant, Camp Coach of the Year
WR Peter Warrick, FSU, AA
OL Rob Murphy, Ohio St - AA
KR David Allen, Kansas St - AA
LB Jeff Kelly, Kansas St - AA
LB Al Wilson, Tennessee, AA
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Buckeyes over the Noles.
Here's my other thought, first time in this exercise that the 4 included teams were also the 4 best teams.
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Is Chris Weinke hypothetically healthy
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Buckeyes over the Noles.
Here's my other thought, first time in this exercise that the 4 included teams were also the 4 best teams.
if Cooper's team actually beat Michigan, it had to be a great team
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Is Chris Weinke hypothetically healthy
No, he's out. Didn't play in the Fiesta Bowl, so he's not playing in the playoff.
FSU beat Florida with Outzen, and lost to Tennessee.
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It wouldn't have been the Wolverines.
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4 votes for the Noles?
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Torry Holt not impressed. He owned the Noles in his career. I digress.
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That's what proved how great Holt was - he burned an all-time great pass D.
To put it in perspective:
'98 OSU's pass D was genuinely elite, allowing 190 ypg and a 48.3 comp %.
What was '98 FSU's numbers for those? Try 135 ypg and a 41.2 comp%.
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Much, much better than an elite pass D. Wow, all around.
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I remember Holt scoring 5? TDs in the wild game they had in '97 vs FSU, the '98 game when they won 24-7, I recall Peter Warrick caught a TD bomb from Wienke right away, but the NCST controlled the game, Holt ran back a punt and then scored another long TD to put it away. That was a 3:30 window, I recall Nebraska was playing at Cal, Solich's first road game (24-3), back when you needed to order GamePlan to watch that ACC game.
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I like the votes in which all 4 teams get support.
Ohio State was probably better than Tennessee, but I'd assume the Vols luck their way to a win, like they did vs Syracuse and Arkansas. I think Michael Bishop was good enough to give a great FSU defense fits - he'd pass enough to make room for some running, and he'd run enough to create some passing windows.
After that, Tennessee's offensive style of run it right at you would be a disaster vs the K-State defense.
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As with 96, this is fascinating. I could see all four of these guys winning this and wouldn't peg any one as a clear favorite .
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Do we have a compendium of our theoretical winners versus who actually "won"?
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I'm keeping track of it.....let's just say Tom Osborne could open his own jewelry store if there had always been a playoff.
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IF he could win the Big one
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Nebraska had a decent run there. FSU had some amazing years as well.
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I'm guessing the most votes for the #4 seed, by far
wonder why?
12th in scoring offense
2nd in scoring defense
21st strength of schedule
Faith in John Cooper???
lost to unranked MSU, by 4.
QB Germaine and RB Wiley are huge historic names in the program
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I see you left A&M out of that hypothetical 4 team playoff but I can't say I disagree. But I just wanted to point out that was probably the best team we fielded over the last 20 years (sadly). We let Ricky Williams run all over us in Austin that year on his way to the Heisman and if it hadn't been for that slip-up we would have finished much higher and were being talked about as a MNC contender.
Consider this: If in early Dec. you have a 2 loss A&M squad that just beat KSU would you leave them out of the 4-team? We only lost to FSU (1st game of the season) and UT by a slim margin.
A&M in 1998: Narrowly lost to FSU in the season opener. Beat #2 Nebraska. Lost to Mack Browns First Texas Team (narrowly). Beat #1 KSU at a neutral site (cost them the chance to play). Lost to OSU in the Sugar bowl by 10. Beat Texas Tech, Missouri, OU. Finished #10 but could have probably finished a lot higher if we hadn't lost our starting QB in the Texas game and then lost to OSU.
I still kinda feel sad that A&M cockroached KSU out of their only shot at the MNC. Bill Snyder cried his eyes out after that one.
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I'm guessing the most votes for the #4 seed, by far
wonder why?
12th in scoring offense
2nd in scoring defense
21st strength of schedule
Faith in John Cooper???
lost to unranked MSU, by 4.
QB Germaine and RB Wiley are huge historic names in the program
Because they think they would win?
It's a Big Ten board, buddy.
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A&M was still behind 10-1 UCLA in the final BCS rankings, so no, they weren't going to be part of the playoff.
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Because they think they would win?
It's a Big Ten board, buddy.
OSU had one bad loss, and no CCG to elevate them into a higher ranking. Cooper was great against every team, sans Michigan. Like Superman with kryptonite. OSU was the best team that season.
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OSU had one bad loss, and no CCG to elevate them into a higher ranking. Cooper was great against every team, sans Michigan. Like Superman with kryptonite. OSU was the best team that season.
But he also had issues in bowl games, no? With OSU he was 2-7 in 9 bowl games pre-1998.
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That '98 UCLA team....it had a putrid defense. Allowed 250+ yards passing per game, 180+ rushing. Didn't create a bunch of turnovers, ether. It would have been the very worst defense of a national championship-caliber team ever. The 1998 Pac 10 should be ashamed of itself, having let those Bruins go undefeated in conference play.
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They were Twelving before the Big XII really even got going...
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Update on "What if" Playoff Voting:
Our Vote.................Real Life
'82 - Nebraska.........Penn St
'83 - Nebraska.........Miami
'84 - tie..................BYU
'85 - Oklahoma.......Oklahoma
'86 - Penn St..........Penn St
'87 - Miami.............Miami
'88 - ND.................ND
'89 - tie.................Miami
'90 - Miami............GT/CU
'91 - Washington....Miami/UW
'92 - Alabama........Alabama
'93 - FSU...............FSU
'94 - Penn St..........Nebraska
'95 - Nebraska........Nebraska
'96 - Florida............Florida
'97 - Nebraska........UM/Nebraska
'98 - tbd
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Notes:
Only two #1 seeds have received zero votes: 1982 Georgia & 1997 Michigan
Only one #4 seed has won the vote (so far): 1990 Miami
No vote has been unanimous. The closest have been:
'95 Nebraska - 94%
'91 Washington - 89%
Our playoff champions by seed:
#1 - 4 winners
#2 - 6 winners
#3 - 3 winners
#4 - 1 winner
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So, half the time, the actual outcome paralleled our opinions. That's not awful.
One could also ponder how often the "best team" fails to win a four team playoff.
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Update on "What if" Playoff Voting:
Our Vote.................Real Life
'84 - tie..................BYU
but, it wouldn't have been Michigan or BYU
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Not that it matters, because we're doing this for fun and majority rules, but the '86 vote bothers me. We voted for a massive, unlikely upset with a substantial turnover disparity would happen again. There's no reason to think that. For some reason, grown adults aren't able to ignore something that actually happened, even when told it should have no bearing on this activity.
No, Penn State would not have beaten Miami again if they played a rematch or 3 more games or 5 more games. But we saw it once, so that's how it has to be?
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#2 Penn State
Won @ #2 Alabama by 20. Did not allow any opponent to score 20 points all season. Unremarkable passing game, but really differientiated itself both running the ball and stopping the run. Opponents only ran for 70 yards per game. PSU ran for an average of 241, led by DJ Dozier. Defense also intercepted 20 passes.
well, they were a #2 seed. Great defense
I wanted to vote for the Sooners but their reg season loss to the Canes nixed that
and, it is a Big Ten board
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Thinking back, I do almost like the old preBCS system better.
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I like the old way + 1, when needed. After the dust of the bowls has cleared, if there are still 2 P5 undefeateds, they play. For whatever reason, a potential game not set in stone has never seemed realistic, and I don't know why that is. A game that may be played or may not need to be played...you secure the venue, and if you don't need it, you pay some buyout or something. They keep the deposit. Who cares?
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#2 Penn State
Won @ #2 Alabama by 20. Did not allow any opponent to score 20 points all season. Unremarkable passing game, but really differientiated itself both running the ball and stopping the run. Opponents only ran for 70 yards per game. PSU ran for an average of 241, led by DJ Dozier. Defense also intercepted 20 passes.
well, they were a #2 seed. Great defense
I wanted to vote for the Sooners but their reg season loss to the Canes nixed that
and, it is a Big Ten board
445 total yards to 162.
22 first downs to 8.
What are the odds Miami would have 7 turnovers again?
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about the same as the odds of going 22 to 8 on first downs
not good
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Turnovers are more fluky than talent/dominance. You're telling me a team outgained by 300 yards and won is LIKELY to win a rematch?
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nope, just saying it is not likely to end 22 to 8 in first downs
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Could be 25 to 5, you’re right.
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you'll learn that I'm mostly right
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Isn't everyone? Just ask them.
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you are correct, sir
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Turnovers, to me, are the key element in most upsets. I recall Bama lost to Ole Miss a few years back but had 5 TOs to none. And I view them as mostly random. A team built on turnovers to achieve a gaudy record might find that well going dry later in the year.
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That OSU loss to MSU was a historic upset. Until then, it was loudly wondered whether '98 was the best OSU team ever. I think it's entirely fair to say they were better than the other 3, with MSU making them out of luck in a BCS world but irrelevant in a CoFoPO.
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https://www.toledoblade.com/sports/ohio-state/2018/11/09/college-football-michigan-state-spartans-ohio-state-buckeyes-1998/stories/20181109006
Michigan State punted near its own goal line as the clock approached the eight-minute mark of the third quarter. Ohio State, leading 24-9, was going to have a short field to stretch its advantage to three possessions.
With that lead that late and about to receive a punt, you would have thought the game was over.
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should have been if it was a great team
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My uncle, an OSU alum, was up in Michigan on business, and stuck around Saturday to go to a fairly big UM-PSU game. I think both were top 15ish. He didn't actually have tickets to OSU, and it was a 3:30, after the noon UM-PSU game, so he went to the game, then game back to my parents house to watch OSU-MSU. It was such a weird feeling, because none of us were MSU fans, but obviously we were all rooting against OSU, as UM fans, and just fans of the upset, but didn't want to actually do so, because you could see the devastation slowly taking over his face. Then he had to pack it up and drive 3 hours back to Ohio.
That game was obviously an upset, but was only as big an upset because of how schitzo MSU was. That was WAY too good a team to go 6-6. They beat OSU, jumped out 42-3 in the 2nd quarter on a top 25 Notre Dame team, but got destroyed by Oregon and PSU, and had bad losses to Minnesota and Colorado State. But the core of the team that finished top 5 the next year was there, they just lacked consistency. But their A game was really good.
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I watched that game too (from Seattle), and I remember thinking that the "new" coach over there in East Lansing was really on to something. As for the 1999 team, I wonder what would have happened had MSU (rightfully) gotten that Orange Bowl bid over Michigan. I'm thinking Saban stays.
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I watched that game too (from Seattle), and I remember thinking that the "new" coach over there in East Lansing was really on to something. As for the 1999 team, I wonder what would have happened had MSU (rightfully) gotten that Orange Bowl bid over Michigan. I'm thinking Saban stays.
He probably wouldn't have taken the LSU job, but he would have been gone, likely to the NFL within a year or 2.