| Maryland Terrapins (2-1, 4-2) at #19 Iowa Hawkeyes (2-1, 5-1) |
| NOON - Iowa City, IA - espn2 |
| These aren't your older brother's Hawkeyes. Remember "Talk to Your Kids About Undefeated Iowa?" Even the strongest Iowa deniers can't deny this team, in fact the pollsters are holding them down more than most of the metrics are. They are #19 in the AP Poll, but the Massey composite computer ranking has them #12, Sagarin says they are top 10. Wisconsin's loss in Ann Arbor last week re-opened the door for the Hawkeyes to get another crack at a Big Ten championship in Indianapolis, after that 2015 team fell seconds short. Their defense has been in the running all year to be the conference's second best, but since that Wisconsin game, the offense has been close on it's heels. Nate Stanley exploded last week in a rout of the Hoosiers, with 320 yards and 6 touchdowns, giving him 12 in Big Ten play, second only to Dwayne Haskins, and Stanley is doing it in an offense averaging just under 32 pass attempts per game. However it's averaging 9.4 yards per attempt, best in the conference. Like I said, not your older brother's Iowa. Can he repeat that against a Maryland defense that has also been surprisingly stout against the pass? First the stats, then the caveat. The Terps are allowing a conference best 46.8% opponents completion percentage, with a conference high 8 interceptions, while ranking #2 in yards per attempt (6.1), yards per game (157.0) and opponents passer rating. The caveat. Did you see Rutgers' stat line last Saturday. When you've played 2 of your 3 games against the worst two passing offenses in the conference, that helps things. Or is it Maryland making them look that bad? This week will go a long way towards sorting that out. Maryland has had their own passing woes, and while they did tally 3 passing touchdowns last week it was (a) against Rutgers and and (b) on a day where overall they were still just 9-20 (45%) for 85 yards (4.3 ypa), but with 3 touchdowns. Two of the touchdowns were from outside the red zone too, which really makes that yards per attempt look ugly. Ty Johnson and Anthony McFarland did what they always do, put up silly numbers on limited carries. They are going to find it much tougher sledding against an Iowa defense that is more susceptible through the air than on the ground. Matt Canada isn't going to ask Kasim Hill to beat Iowa throwing the ball, he isn't going to throw for 250 yards, but it's that completion percentage that needs to climb for Maryland to pull the upset. He needs to pick up some 3rd and 6s, and give those backs another shot at breaking their chunk plays. The Terps are averaging a horribly low 14.0 first downs per game, worst in the Big Ten, third worst nationally. Their offense is all boom or bust, a huge touchdown run, or a three and out. |
| IOWA 34, MARYLAND 24 |
| Illinois Fighting Illini (1-2, 3-3) at #23 Wisconsin Badgers (2-1, 4-2) |
| NOON - Madison, WI - FS1 |
| The drubbing in Ann Arbor sort of confirmed what we had thought, but couldn't really say, due to them pulling out the big road win in Kinnick, that something is just off about this Wisconsin team. They can still run the ball, but for a third year starter Alex Hornibrook has not really improved as a passer. He makes better and better decisions, but that arm is simply not what you want under center for a Big Ten title contender. More concerning is that the defense doesn't even begin to resemble what they had a year ago. Michigan ran all over them for 320 yards on 6.7 ypc, and did it without really threatening to stretch the field vertically. Their only completed pass of longer than 17 yards was to a tight end. So Michigan fought Wisconsin in a phone booth, and won. Those are the fights Bucky never loses. Nothing gets you right faster than the Illini rolling into town though. Last week I discussed that as bad as Rutgers is, Illinois not only beat them, but beat them soundly, and a path to a bowl still remained. I did also caution that aside from the turnover battle, the numbers in that Illinois-Rutgers game were disconcertingly equal. Well, those fears were realized last week, when Purdue closed the book once and for all on whether this Illinois team was decent enough to threaten for a bowl. After forcing Purdue to punt after picking up only 9 yards, the Illini breezed down the field, 77 yards in only 6 plays, gaining 5+ yards on each of those plays, save an incompletion. Illinois managed 83 yards and no points over the remainder of the afternoon, and got run out, 46-7. Their running game, which had carried the load in Big Ten play, was completely shut down by a Purdue defense that Nebraska ran for 6.6 ypc against the week prior. Illinois' leading rusher was quarterback A.J. Bush Jr., who tallied 24 yards on a whopping 2.2 ypc. If anything can help a Wisconsin defense which now ranks 11th in the Big Ten in rush defense both per game and per carry, it might be this. Of course getting healthy would help too. Isaiah Loudermilk is certainly still out, if D'Cota Dixon was as close to returning against Michigan as it seemed he was, then you would think he would be back. Although Scott Nelson, on that back line with him is out either way with a targeting suspension. The gap between Illinois and Rutgers is large, but so is the gap between Illinois and whoever is #12. For whatever issues Wisconsin has defensively, Illinois' are worse, although these are the two worst teams in conference play in terms of ypp allowed. S&P+ suggests Wisconsin's numbers (#63 in defense) are much more misleading than Illinois' (#111), and in spite of the dreadful performance we saw out of Hornibrook on Saturday night, Connelly still has the Badgers' offense ranked #5 nationally. Since 2009, Wisconsin has only lost once to a conference opponent that finished with a losing record, and very rarely were they even challenged. The one consistent with the program has been the ability to put the boot down on inferior competition. |
| WISCONSIN 41, ILLINOIS 20 |
| Northwestern Wildcats (3-1, 3-3) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-4, 1-6) |
| NOON - Piscataway, NJ - BTN |
| I used to have the rule where I didn't break down FCS games, just picked a score. I may have to implement that rule for Rutgers. At least with the cupcake September games, generally none of them play multiple Big Ten teams, and there's always something to say once. To come up with something to say each and every week for Rutgers is an impossible task. They are awful. The worst Big Ten team I've ever seen, and it's not even close. Northwestern could bring back one of their garbage late 70s teams for a 40th reunion, and they could probably beat this Rutgers team...right now. Who is even going to these games anymore? So I'll focus on the Wildcats, who almost suffered a terrible hangover from their big win in East Lansing by giving Nebraska their first win of the season. But they were able to get one key stop, and take advantage of a struggling Cornhusker defense. So seeing the offense come alive was nice, but the defense which played well in spurts against Michigan and Michigan State, allowed way too many extended drives against Nebraska. They allowed 5 different drives of over 50 yards, allowing what had been the worst time of possession team in the Big Ten, and still is, in Nebraska to give their defense rare extended breaks. As has been the story all year for Northwestern though, they made a living off of penalty disparity, getting called for only 1 for 5 yards, while Nebraska raked up 90 yards in penalties. That's nothing new, as Northwestern's net +50.0 penalty yards per game. Minnesota (+38.0) and Rutgers (+20.5) are the only other schools even better than +15. I'd say something to work on is to try and get the running game on track against a Rutgers defense that is worst in the Big Ten in run defense by either 6.1 ypc or 252.0 ypg metric. But Nebraska HAD been the second worst, and jumped up this week thanks to how completely they shut the Wildcats down, with 32 yards on 23 carries. At this point Northwestern might just be what they are, and that's a team that is going to have to pass the ball all afternoon long. In fairness they were playing from behind last week, but Clayton Thorson's 65 attempts and 455 yards may not be totally out of whack with what they are from here out. You'd have to think here they will get up enough that they'll need to run the ball to run the clock, even if it's a three and out every time. This is simply not a team meant to stake a lead and then hold it. See the Michigan game. You always hear "this team doesn't want to play from behind," which sounds dumb, but it means in relation to how comfortable other teams are playing from behind. Every team, Northwestern included, would prefer that lead, but once they get it, their complete lack of a running game makes it much more tenuous than most. |
| NORTHWESTERN 37, RUTGERS 14 |
| #10 Penn State Nittany Lions (1-2, 4-2) at Indiana Hoosiers (1-3, 4-3) |
| 3:30 - Bloomington, IN - ABC |
| The concerns about how Penn State's offense would continue to roll with Barkley off to the NFL, and Moorhead off to Mississippi State, seem to have been warranted. That seems harsh for an offense that currently ranks 4th in scoring offense, 3rd in total offense, and 1st in yards per play. But they ran wild over a horrible Illinois team, for 63 points and nearly 600 yards. Their 26 points against a struggling Ohio State defense doesn't look so good anymore, particularly when they couldn't hold a 12 point lead with under 7 minutes to go. What they did get in that game seemed to be 100% McSorley willing them to. Repeat last week against a banged up Michigan State team, except replace McSorley with Miles Sanders. Sanders had a 78 yard run untouched to set up one touchdown, and a 48 yard man ball run where it seems like a broke a tackle from every defender on the field to score their other touchdown. They mustered only 14 first downs, under 26 minutes of possession, and with the ball twice late with a chance to ice the game, they had back to back three and outs to open the door for the Spartans. Now Michigan State is probably vying with Iowa to be the second best defense in the conference this season, and while Ohio State has taken some criticism, it's that their defense might not be national championship caliber. They are still probably a top 5 defense in the conference. Indiana is none of these things. Part of the problem is they aren't forcing field goals. More or less, the days of shut down defense in college football, absent your total talent gap game, is gone. So you have to force turnovers and make teams settle for 3. Indiana is allowing 4.8 touchdowns per game. The only other teams with numbers that bad reside at the bottom of all of the defensive stats, Illinois, Rutgers and Nebraska. Indiana is wholly in the middle, but they aren't forcing field goals in the red zone, surrendering touchdowns on an absurd 13 of 16 trips (81.3%). Nebraska has a terrible 5% defensive success rate in the red zone, but even they are only allowing touchdowns on 60% of trips. The Hoosiers were looking towards another season in a recent run where they challenged all the big boys, but couldn't beat them. Until they ran into the Iowa buzz saw last weekend, and Nate Stanley announced his own 3rd party candidacy against Dwayne Haskins and Jonathan Taylor in the Silver Football race. This is a chance for the Penn State offense to get back up off the mat. Both defense should be well prepared as Peyton Ramsey reminds me of a poor man's Trace McSorley. I think McSorley is willing to go down field a little more, and Ramsey might be a touch more accurate, but both will run if you let them, and both have a lot of gunslinger in them, such that interceptions are there to be had. The Nittany Lions defense is playing well, their offense just dumped on them one too many times last week. You hold Ohio State to 27 and Michigan State to 21 in back to back weeks, you expect to finish that 2-0, certainly not 0-2. Penn State needs to stay on schedule and stay out of the 3rd and longs they kept putting themselves in last week. That means more from Miles Sanders. His overall numbers last week, 17 carries, 162 yards, 9.5 ypc, look quite good. Then you remember he has 2 carries for 126 yards, and things look a little different. Over the final 35 game minutes, after his touchdown run to give Penn State a 14-7 lead, he had 10 carries for 17 yards for the balance of the game. That's how to not hold a lead. I suspect this looks more like his Illinois performance, where he got stronger as the game went on. |
| PENN STATE 34, INDIANA 26 |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-3, 3-3) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-4, 0-6) |
| 3:30 - Lincoln, NE - BTN |
| Nebraska is getting close. The offense seems to be there, the defense just needs to catch up. It's unclear how a team and a program that has never gone through anything like this before will respond to the way they dropped last week's game. Will they take it as a positive as to how close they are getting, or is it one more gut punch in a season where they are entering the second half winless? The answer to that question will likely determine how this game goes. I'm also for now going to assume Shannon Brooks is playing? He was expected to be healthy this week, and bolster a Minnesota offense that sorely needs him, but was arrested last week for misdemeanor domestic assault against his male roommate. The way P.J. Fleck laid out the situation sure sounded like he was laying the groundwork for him to play. He noted he was back with the team, that there were no injuries, there have been no charges, and the victim was a male roomate, not a female. If you can pair him with freshman Mohamed Ibrahim, you really have a very dangerous backfield, and can run an offense more like what Fleck wants to ideally run, rather than one where Zack Annexstad is throwing the ball 30 plus times per game, as he had the previous two weeks. Ibrahim had 62 carries on 4.8 ypc two weeks ago against a very stout Iowa run defense, then had career bests 157 yards and 2 touchdowns last week against Ohio State, doing so on nearly 7 yards per carry. Now he gets to run on a Nebraska front that ranks 3rd worst in the Big Ten in run defense both by 218.8 ypg allowed and 5.7 ypc allowed. Their stats look that bad through 4 games, where one is Northwestern's inept ground game. And yes, before you start thinking Nebraska's run defense has turned a corner, Northwestern, and their 2.0 ypc in conference play is horrifically bad. Indiana (2.9 ypc) is the only other school under 3.5. Sitting there also at just 3.5 is Minnesota, so the continued development of Ibrahim, and the return of Brooks is very welcomed for an offense that is more dependent on the pass than any Minnesota team I can recall. Maybe back to the Cory Sauter days in the mid-90s. The Huskers continue to have no problems offensively. In this current 10 game losing streak, Nebraska has scored at least 28 points 4 times. The problem is 10 of their last 11 Big Ten opponents have scored at least 31. The one that didn't? Nebraska's lone win in that stretch. I do know Frost wants his team to be more efficient running the ball. At 4.6 ypc, his offense is even yet clicking at full pace. Last year, his UCF team was #18 in the nation at 5.2 ypc. May not seem like a huge difference, but 4.6 is fairly average, 5.2 is top 15%. A lot of that production needs to come from Martinez, who was supposed to be more of a running threat this year. His passing ability, aided by a WR group that some thought might be the best in the conference, is ahead of where I expected it at this point, but his running hasn't been nearly consistent enough. He showed it big time against Colorado, but aside from that he's totalled just 173 yards (43.3 ypg) on just 3.4 ypc. I expect more of that this week against a Gopher defense that is really struggling against the pass, allowing a Big Ten worst 68% opponents completion percentage, just 1 interception, and an 8.7 ypa that ranks 13th. They've allowed a 300 yard passer and a 400 yard passer over the past two weeks. Nebraska is going to get a Big Ten win this year, and this seems like the second safest best after Illinois, I'm just nervous about the fragility of the program right now, and how they respond after the way last week ended. And Minnesota looked pretty good, particularly running the ball, and now add Brooks back to the mix likely. They played well enough to beat most teams not named Ohio State last week. |
| MINNESOTA 38, NEBRASKA 25 |
| #2 Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 7-0) at Purdue Boilermakers (2-1, 3-3) |
| 7:30 - West Lafayette, IN - ABC |
| The easy narrative is that Ohio State has been a team that plays to it's competition. However, after seeing Penn State lose again, and seeing TCU drop 3 of 4 going into a date with Oklahoma this week, the question is if you play to the level of your competition, but your competition hasn't been very good, where does that leave you? For all of the concerns, both ways, about the defenses in this tilt, Ohio State is 2nd in the Big Ten in scoring defense in Big Ten play, and Purdue is 4th. Even adjusted on a per play basis, they come in 6th and 7th. So while Ohio State fancies itself a national title contender, and Purdue got back to a bowl last year with defense, and neither seems to be at that level right now, the hyperbole about their defensive struggles seems a bit much. What seems to be absolutely the case is that neither defense has faced on offense like they one they'll face Saturday night. The Boilermakers and Buckeyes are the two schools averaging over 500 yards per game in the conference, and Dwayne Haskins is putting up numbers at the quarterback position we've never seen in Columbus. That's the issue, is that these defenses have been mediocre while facing largely bad offenses. Yes, Ohio State played Penn State, but their other three Big Ten opponents have the three worst offensive ypp averages in the conference. Likewise, Purdue played Nebraska, but Northwestern (without a healthy Thorson yet) and Illinois? Yuck. As explosive as Ohio State's offense has been, the scary thing is that they've done it while being almost one dimensional. Who that is scary for remains to be determined. Is it Ohio State fans, who know you don't win titles averaging 3.8 ypc. Or is it for opposing fans who see what the Buckeyes offense has been doing without opponents having to key on the run, but knowing that with J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber, it's unlikely to continue. Some of it starts up front, where PFF grades Ohio State's offensive line 2nd in the conference, but my eyes haven't seen that. Isaiah Prince seemed to be getting beat regularly when I'd pay attention to him last week. For Purdue the task is protecting David Blough. On the season, they've done a commendable job, 36th in the nation in adjusted sack rate allowed, but recently, they haven't, rising by over 2% to nearly 7%. May not seem like a big deal, but that's the difference between #36 and #80. Bill Connolly's metrics, which are finally live this week for OL production are VERY favorable to the Boilermakers. The one issue, 3rd and longs. Purdue is top 25 by several of his metrics, and are top ten in 4 of his 9, but while their sack rate on standard downs is only 1.4%, good for #9 in the nation, on passing downs that plummets to 10.5%, #98. Whether that's due to Blough holding the ball too long, or a philosophy of quick routes, that evaporates on 3rd and long, that's an issue for Purdue. Ohio State's defensive issues seem to be that they were 100% reliant on having a line so dominant that they could cover up for back end deficiencies with pressure, and with 7 man drops. It's been good, but it hasn't been insanely good, substantially due to injuries. That's allowed the holes in the back to be exposed. Each of the past 2 seasons Ohio State lost a road game to an unranked conference opponent. They've actually won 8 in a row against ranked conference opponents, dating back to the 2015 Michigan State loss. If you are looking for the 2016 Penn State or 2017 Iowa result for 2018, this seems like the best bet, although College Park is tricky, and Michigan State very well might be unranked in 3 weeks when they go to East Lansing. I still think it will look a lot more like the previous two weeks, with Purdue playing even with Ohio State for a half, and the Buckeyes pulling away with an unrelenting offense. |
| OHIO STATE 38, PURDUE 21 |
| ***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK*** |
| #6 Michigan Wolverines (4-0, 6-1) at #24 Michigan State Spartans (2-1, 4-2) |
| NOON - East Lansing, MI - FOX |
| I've gone back and forth all week on this one. On paper, Michigan looks better, maybe substantially better. But that is about par for the course. Michigan has been favored in 6 of the last 9 matchups, and they've lost 4 of those times they were favored. The Spartans have won 8 of 10 outright, and covered in all 10. So that's been a decade straight where Michigan has not performed up to the pregame expectations. This week Michigan is favored for the 7th time in 10 games, by 7 points. Michigan doesn't care if they make it 11 straight years losing against the spread if they get the W. Michigan State shouldn't care about that number either, there's no "Defeat with Dignity" here. Granted there's also no referendum on them if they don't win. That certainly isn't the case for Michigan, which has to get a win here and/or in Columbus to prevent the offseason roars from becoming deafening. But they also can't make this game about that, this team is too good. Last weekend's craziness has ensured Michigan controls their own destiny when it comes to the College Football Playoff. So while beating Michigan State and Ohio State is important, that's not what defines the second half of this season. It's a season split between six cakewalk games and six massive tests to Harbaugh's program. Through the first three of those tests, Michigan is 2-1. What looked impossible in the preseason looks a little different now. Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State for sure do not look as formidable as they did preseason, and while it seems weird to say this about the #2 team in the nation, neither does Ohio State. The Spartans circled the wagons last week and pulled out a shorthanded stunner in Happy Valley, their 5th win in the last 6 games in the "rivalry," after losing 8 of the previous 10. If there's one thing Mark Dantonio has figured out, it's how to get his teams up for their three huge divisional games. Michigan State got slightly more creative with the playcalling than they had in previous weeks, trying to generate something from an offense that was down a starting running back, starting fullback, both starting guards, and was playing with one healthy scholarship receiver. They didn't get a ton of offense, but they got just enough. I doubt Michigan makes the same mistakes, leaving Felton Davis in single coverage far too often. Granted I kind of hope we see another battle between an MSU wide receiver and a UM cornerback like the show that Aaron Burbridge and Jourdan Lewis put on in 2015. Nobody is doing anything against this Michigan defense right now though. Michigan State's defense has been mostly up to the task too. They played better against the pass last week, the emergence of Khari Willis at safety has really helped there. Josiah Scott, the Spartans' best cornerback, who has missed the entire season, left some hints on social media that he'd be dressing, but if he's been practicing at all, it's been kept under wraps. Shea Patterson has looked more and more comfortable each week, and as he's done so he's looked like more and more a threat in the running game. The offense with him rolling out of the pocket is just so much better than when they try to force him into being the type of quarterback Harbaugh wants, which I think is the exact same type Bo wanted. Michigan State's defense has to prove they've improved a lot from Week 2, because what Manny Wilkins brought to the table is similar to what Patterson will. A great thrower, who is mobile enough to keep you honest, but still would ideally keep his head up and find the open receiver downfield. Wilkins missed on a couple of those, that Michigan State can't bank on Patterson missing. Granted Michigan doesn't have anyone, right now, like N'Keal Harry. A lot of what worked for Arizona State were the short crossing routes. Not the quick stuff that Clayton Thorson nickel and dimed Michigan State to death with, but longer developing plays, taking advantage of Wilkins buying extra time, and of Michigan State's lack of speed at the safety position. Patterson can hurt them the same way. So how can Michigan State win? Trade 3s for 7s. Michigan State is going to have some three and outs. I'd be shocked if Michigan doesn't win the yardage battle. So the Spartans have to convert the limited red zone shots they have, and keep force Nordin on to the field plenty for Michigan, who has struggled some this year. This is not without precedent, Michigan is only scoring touchdowns on 52.6% of their red zone possessions. Only Rutgers (50%) is worst. Conversely, Michigan State has only allowed touchdowns on 33.3% of their defensive red zone possessions, best in the conference, Michigan has allowed them on 75% of theirs, fifth worst. That's probably the only way this will happen, because I have a tough time seeing Michigan State generating much. But after picking Michigan to win this three years in a row, and being wrong twice, maybe I'll trust Michigan State in this rivalry until Michigan proves me wrong. I also already picked Michigan State to beat Northwestern comfortably, but lose to Indiana and badly to Penn State, so I clearly don't know my own team anyway. |
| MICHIGAN STATE 27, MICHIGAN 26 |
The most interesting game to me is OSU at Purdue.Another good one.
Another good one.Purdue's four wins over Ohio State since the 2000 season (inclusive) puts them in the top-3 of all of Ohio State's opponents. What makes that even more impressive is that the other two have both been generally better over that time and have had more opportunities against the Buckeyes:
Most of those games this Millennium are a TD or less, with Purdue winning 4 of the 12 contests over that time frame.
Their hex on OSU is unreal.
Purdue's four wins over Ohio State since the 2000 season (inclusive) puts them in the top-3 of all of Ohio State's opponents. What makes that even more impressive is that the other two have both been generally better over that time and have had more opportunities against the Buckeyes:Why haven't these two teams played since 2013? A player could play all 4-years at Purdue, and never play Ohio State, and vice versa. I don't agree with the scheduling gods. Did that get corrected after we went to locked in cross-overs?Purdue is the only one to have accomplished that in less than 14 chances.
- Penn State is 5-14 against Ohio State since 2000
- Purdue is 4-8 against Ohio State since 2000
- Wisconsin is 4-11 against Ohio State since 2000
Why haven't these two teams played since 2013? A player could play all 4-years at Purdue, and never play Ohio State, and vice versa. I don't agree with the scheduling gods. Did that get corrected after we went to locked in cross-overs?Purdue/Indiana is the only locked crossover in the league. That makes Purdue the least frequent B1G opponent for every B1G-E team not named Indiana and Indiana the least frequent B1G opponent for every B1G-W team not named Purdue.
Purdue has become better than its record. I agree with posters who seem to be surmising this is one of the more interesting games on the schedule this weekend.
Everyone has a fixed crossover. Not just Indiana-Purdue.Only Indian/Purdue is permanent. That was what I meant by "fixed".
The most interesting game to me is OSU at Purdue.I’m definitely excited for the state of Michigan game, but this game peaks my interest too. oSU’s defense has not looked good since Bosa went down And Purdue has shown some firepower lately.