| Well, this game certainly isn't what I thought it would be in the preseason. I had this as the game to determine the East division, with both teams finishing with 1 conference loss (plus a non-conference loss for Michigan State), and Penn State's home win here being the tiebreaker to send them to Indianapolis. While each is only 1 loss off the pace from where I had them, it feels like more than that. Penn State melted down against Ohio State again, and needed a miracle to get past Appalachian State. Michigan State seems a whole lot farther from where they were expected to be, and at this point just getting bowl eligible doesn't seem like a certainty. The Spartans boast the #1 run defense in the nation, but aside from that question marks abound. The offense has been ravaged by injuries, playing at times last week down 3 starting offensive linemen, their starting running back and fullback, and three of their top four receivers. Brian Lewerke doesn't look at all like the guy we saw last year, who pulled the program back up by its bootstraps from 3-9 to 10-3. Is it a product of all of the injuries around him, or something more? Even when the Spartans were healthier earlier in the season, he didn't seem to possess the same confidence we saw last year. He seems tentative in the pocket, like a guy who wants to run, but has had it coached out of him, but isn't really looking downfield either. While Lewerke has been a major disappointment after earning some preseason All-Big Ten honors, Trace McSorley has not. His passing hasn't been quite where it was expected to be, but his receivers haven't exactly stepped up. His skills as a runner have taken off though, and made him much tougher to defend. I was actually just watching a replay of last year's game and there were a number of times where Michigan State got the Nittany Lions off the field on 3rd or 4th down by dropping 8 and forcing McSorley to make tight throws he couldn't make, but leaving big running lanes if all he needed was 4 or 5 yards, but he didn't take them. McSorley ran an average of 11.1 times per game last year for 3.4 yards per carry. This year he is running 13.2 times per game, but for 6.2 ypc, but in their two Big Ten games he is running 20.0 times per game for 6.7 ypc. In conference games, he's 2nd in the Big Ten in rushing, right ahead of teammate Miles Sanders in third. I don't think James Franklin particularly wants him to have the 25 carries he had against Ohio State each week, but the Buckeyes were taking everything else away. One consistent under Dantonio has been the ability to take away the quarterback's ability to run. Manny Wilkins, averaging 4.1 ypc, was held to 3.1 ypc by Michigan State; Peyton Ramsey, averaging 3.9, was held to 0.7; and Tommy Lazzaro, averaging 4.6, was held to 2.9. McSorley may prove me wrong, but I think Michigan State is going to force him to beat them from the pocket. The pass rush, which was a problem early in the season, has gotten much better the past few weeks. But as continues to plague Dantonio's defenses, they get beat consistently on short routes. I'm reminded of the 2014 Michigan State-Ohio State game, where the Spartans sold out to force J.T. Barrett to beat them from the pocket. One broken play 55 yard one sort of jaded the stats, but overall Michigan State was successful in their goal. The problem was with single coverage across the board, Barrett had probably the greatest passing night of his four year career, throwing for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, and a 99.2 QBR, nearly perfect. I think Michigan State can be equally successful this week, and I think McSorley will do the same thing to them that Barrett did four years ago. The one chance Michigan State has is if McSorley is missing the guys or getting too greedy. Clayton Thorson was both accurate and willing to patient on drives last week. McSorley is only completing 54.9% of his passes in Big Ten play, fourth worst among starters, and he's always had that gunslinger mentality, so it's not going out on a limb to say those things could happen. But I don't expect them to. Penn State has the guys in Sanders, Hamler, and even Ricky Slade if they choose to use him that way, where they can get the ball out quick, like Northwestern and Utah State did, except those guys can make a lot more happen after the play than anyone on the Aggies or Wildcats roster. |