CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: ohio1317 on October 13, 2026, 10:12:03 AM
-
Teams with 1st Loss Week 6:
Texas
Alabama
Nebraska
Pittsburgh
Duke
North Dakota State
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 6:
South Florida
Louisiana State
Oregon
Florida
Kansas State
Fresno State
Appalachian State
Massachusetts
Virginia Tech
Toledo
Louisiana-Lafayette
Minnesota
Teams with 1st Win Week 6:
none
Percent with 1st Loss:
Week 0/1: 38.4% (53 of 138)
Week 2: 38.8% (33 of 85)
Week 3: 32.7% (17 of 52)
Week 4: 37.1% (13 of 35)
Week 5: 31.8% (7 of 22)
Week 6: 40.0% (6 of 15)
Maximum Number of Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season: 5
-Our number dropped by two this week. One part of the fall was because we lost our last undefeated from the Mountain West with North Dakota State falling to UNLV. In the ACC, Duke and Pitt picked up their first losses. Miami is undefeated in the conference, but since they play Notre Dame, only one of the two of them can go undefeated. Our remaining undefeated teams are Georgia, Indiana/UCLA, James Madison, Miami/Notre Dame, BYU/Utah/Texas Tech (BYU does play Notre Dame).
Team 6 Thoughts:
-Alabama lost a close one at home to Georgia while Texas surprisingly lost in the Red River Shootout. This leave Georgia alone atop the SEC. Missouri and Tennessee won as ranked teams, but LSU falls for the second time, this time to Kentucky. After a great start, Florida lost again, this time to South Carolina at home. My rule of thumb is generally two loss teams from the SEC and Big Ten get in the playoff (can be close if lot of choices or weaker schedule), but games are starting to put more and more schools on the edge even now. Georgia is certainly the early favorite for Atlanta, but does play both Ole Miss and Missouri (good for those schools SEC chances, but possibly bad for their playoff ones).
-The biggest news in the Big Ten was UCLA beating Oregon. This leaves UCLA undefeated and looking like the best far west team in the Big Ten. This leaves Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan (all previous playoff teams last few years) all with at least two losses. Oregon and Michigan probably still technically control their destiny, but things don't look good for either. Nebraska fell a little short against Indiana to lose their first one while Iowa killed Washington in what is an underappreciated win (a cross country trip on a short week following a loss). USC stayed ranked by winning at Penn State. Indiana and Ohio State are set-up for a monster game next week. I think the Big Ten's hope right now is to have Ohio State and Indiana win out (other than against each other) and then some combination of UCLA, Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa, USC or Wisconsin still get in.
-All the ranked teams in the Big 12 won. Among those top 5 teams, you have 3 unbeaten teams (Texas Tech, Utah, and BYU), one team with a loss to one of those unbeatens (Houston against Texas Tech in a close one), and one with one good out of conference win (although also a not great looking loss) in Oklahoma State. The conference set-up remains pretty strong for multiple teams for now and I am leaning more and more to the Big 12 getting a 2nd in. That said, conference favorite BYU is facing Notre Dame this week and we will have more games with these teams facing each other which will produce losses (Oklahoma State and Houston play this week).
-Pitt and Duke both lost close games this week (to North Carolina and Georgia Tech). This leaves Miami alone unbeaten. I think the scenarios to get two in for the ACC are narrowing. The best way would be to have Miami lose the championship to someone and both get in, but I doubt the ACC wants that either (they want one of the top seeds). As things stand, 1-loss Wake Forest (who lost a close one to Miami) might actually be the best for two in without Miami needing to lose. SMU, for their part, also has 1 loss, is ranked, and has Notre Dame ahead. Duke and Pitt are also still in it, but they don't have a lot of margin for error.
-Group of 6 Playoff Spot:
-With North Dakota State falling to UNLV, we have 1 unbeaten left in a Group of 6 conferences after this week and that is the Sun Belt's James Madison. I do not think James Madison fully control's their destiny though. They did not have any teams from a power 4 conference on their schedule and the committee has seemed to value the Mountain West and American strength of schedule a little more traditionally in my mind (this year that likely applies to the PAC-12, although not sure how that dynamic will work for a few years). I think James Madison can beat out most other competitors if it looks very strong the rest of the way, but think they could also get beaten out by several 1-loss teams. I don't think the committee would rank a 2-loss team ahead though even if both losses are to stronger teams.
Side later note: With James Madison going to the American now, having them get to the playoff would be a little bitter sweet for the Sun Belt. If they can make it, the conference will certainly still take it, but if not, I'm sure they would prefer someone else to win the conference. It's also a bit of a downer for the Sun Belt itself. After the American raided Conference USA and the Sun Belt remained untouched, and it raided Conference USA itself (reversing the pecking order). The conference seemed to be very well positioned with growing teams and a tight geographic fit (why they kept divisions). Now they have lost teams in back to back years (last year Texas State).
-Boise State beat Fresno State in a battle of 1-loss teams to take the last spot as a 1-loss team in the conference. They are tied with Oregon State (two losses to Houston and Texas Tech) atop the standings. I think Boise State probably has the strongest chance of Group of 6 conference teams if they win out, but are hurt some by the Oregon close loss not looking quite as strong. 2-loss Oregon State is still a decent contender too, but they absolutely must win out and need help.
-UTSA won a close one at home against South Florida to keep UTSA with a single loss. That puts them 2nd favorite to win the conference now after fellow one loss Memphis. If either of them can win out (or Florida Atlantic), they will be a strong contender. If we end up with a 2-loss American champ, they will still be a strong contender, but will almost certainly need at least Boise State and James Madison to lose. They might need another loss from a strong Mountain West 1-loss champion. Side note: the committee no longer must choose a champ, but, practically, I think it will be usually be close enough that one gets picked unless there is an overwhelming favorite before the CCGs.
-With North Dakota State losing, we now have three one loss Mountain West teams primarily competing for the playoff spot. Vegas odds actually have New Mexico as third favorite to get in the playoff behind Boise State and James Madison. The Lobos only loss was a close one to Oklahoma and, if they can win from here, they give the conference its best odds. North Dakota State and Air Force do still sit with 1-loss too though.
-The MAC saw UMass suffer it's 2nd loss which removes the MAC from all lists. It will likely take a major out of conference win now to give the conference any chance. The conference race itself remains interesting.
-Liberty won big this week. They are definitely Conference USA's best shot, but they are a long one. They need James Madison to stubble and then need losses all around the other conferences.
Week 7 Thoughts:
-We have one game between undefeated teams this week. We have 4 games between a combination of undefeated and 1-loss teams.
Undefeated Notre Dame at Undefeated BYU: Catholics vs. Mormons. This game replaced USC on Notre Dame's schedule. Notre Dame can probably afford a loss and maybe two for the playoff (although last year two was one too many). Meanwhile the Big 12 is really hoping for 2+ in and a win here would be enormous for the conference. It would also start to seriously push talk of a national championship quality team.
1-loss Ohio State at Undefeated Indiana: Ohio State is a 3.5 point road favorite. If they lose this, they have two losses and may well not be able to afford another loss (outside of in the Big Ten Championship game which the committee treats a bit differently). Indiana, for their part, hasn't seemed quite last years version, but will feel much more it if they pull this off. Side note: Indiana used to take their overhead photos of the stadium on Ohio State game days since there was so much red. Things have definitely changed quickly.
1-loss Alabama at 1-loss Tennessee: Both coming off close games that went opposite directions for them. Alabama is the favorite in this rivalry games, but going into this emotional game a week after everything put into Georgia is a recipe for an upset.
1-loss Missouri at 1-loss Ole Miss: I don't think many had this pegged as a #9 vs. #13 game before the season, but here we are. Both are playing above expectations and the winner will definitely be thinking playoff. The loser will have 2 losses and won't be able to afford another before championship week.
1-loss Oklahoma State at 1-loss Houston: A ranked Big 12 battle. The loser will have two losses and likely need to win the Big 12 to make the playoff. Houston is a small favorite.
Florida International at Jacksonville State (Tuesday): The 2nd and 3rd favorite to win Conference USA battle it out.
1-loss Memphis at Tulane (Friday): The American best chance is for one of its 1-loss teams to win out. Memphis is the current favorite to win the conference and is a 7 point favorite.
Florida at 1-loss Texas: Both teams down from a week ago. Texas can't afford to let the Oklahoma loss cost them twice or they will go from #1 to being on the edge for the playoff race. They are 10.5 point favorites.
1-loss Mississippi State at LSU: Mississippi State goes into this game the higher ranked team, but are a two touchdown underdog. LSU has two close losses and playoff chances have been written off, but they aren't quite dead there yet.
Virginia at 1-loss SMU: One of the ranked ACC teams. The conference definitely wants SMU to keep winning.
1-loss Northwestern at Michigan State: Northwestern has been kind of a surprise team this year and a playoff dark horse, but they are facing their old coach and a Michigan State team who started terrible, but has been slowly improving. They are 7.5 point favorites.
1-loss Florida Atlantic at Army: One of the last three 1-loss teams in the American is an underdog here.
1-loss Georgia State at undefeated James Madison: The Sun Belt probably has more mixed feelings here than a week ago. James Madison is 100% the best chance of getting the playoff spot and is the last unbeaten in Group of 6 conferences. On the other hand, they are leaving and you would rather someone else win. James Madison is a 12.5 point favorite.
Western Michigan at Central Michigan: Western Michigan is the favorite to win the MAC, but are less than a touchdown favorite on the road. The conference race is wide open.
North Carolina at 1-loss Duke and 1-loss Pitt at Boston College: The 1-loss ACC teams are not huge favorites (Pitt is an underdog). The ACC would prefer at least one of them rise up a bit.
Winless Northern Illinois at Wyoming: Northern Illinois is a 7.5 point underdog while looking for their first win.
UNLV at 1-loss Air Force: The 3rd and 4th most likely to win the Mountain West right now.
Toledo at Eastern Michigan: The 2nd and 4th favorite to win the MAC.
Florida State at undefeated Miami (FL): Big rivalry, but Miami is a three touchdown favorite.
Penn State at Michigan: Hard to believe no conference wins between them.
1-loss Wisconsin at undefeated UCLA: UCLA beat Oregon last week, but are less than a field goal favorite against the badgers at home this week. The winner is hoping for the playoff.
1-loss Kentucky at Oklahoma: Both are coming off big wins last week. The winning fanbase will be hoping for the playoff.
Navy at 1-loss UTSA: The 2nd favorite to take the American and one of the conference's best shot at the playoff is a little under a touchdown favorite here.
1-loss Wake Forest at Cal: Wake Forest is the 2nd favorite in the ACC and actually one of the easier cases to find for a contender for a 2nd playoff spot. They travel cross country for this game though.
1-loss Nebraska at Oregon: Both coming off disappointing losses last week. Oregon is the favorite.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 2, Mountain West: 0, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 9
Miami (FL)
Texas Tech
Indiana
Brigham Young
Utah
UCLA
Georgia
Notre Dame
James Madison
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 4, American: 3, Big 12: 5, Big Ten: 6, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 3, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 7, Sun Belt: 1, total: 31
Southern Methodist
Wake Forest
Florida Atlantic
Memphis
UTSA
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Arizona
Houston
Cincinnati
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Southern California
Iowa
Northwestern
Liberty
New Mexico
Air Force
Boise State
Kentucky
Mississippi State
Mississippi
Missouri
Tennessee
Georgia State
Texas
Alabama
Nebraska
Pittsburgh
Duke
North Dakota State
Remaining Winless Teams: American: 1, Mountain West: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 3
Charlotte
Northern Illinois
Louisiana-Monroe
-
I love these summaries and details.
-
I love these summaries and details.
As good or better than anything on popular and/or paid sites.
-
Yes, looks like at this point you can only have 1 undefeated team in the Big Ten. Only undefeated teams left in conference games only are Ind, UCLA, Ohio St and Wisc.
Ohio St and Wisc have non-conference losses but could still potentially go undefeated in the conference and make it to the CCG.
So UCLA and Ind don't play
And UCLA and Ohio St don't play
And Ind and Wisc don't play
And Ohio St and Wisc don't play
But Ind and Ohio St will play
And UCLA and Wisc will play
So the most undefeateds in conference play you could have at the end of reg season is 2 teams, who would then play in the CCG.
Yup, that checks out.
-
Looks like after Saturday's game, there is only 1 undefeated team left in the Big Ten (UCLA)