CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 05, 2018, 05:13:01 PM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=5683.0&doing_wp_cron=1538773947.6834919452667236328125).
Votes through me (16 voters):
| Team/Poster | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range | LW AVG | LW Rank | Chg Avg | Chg Rank |
| tOSU | 1.00 | 1 | - | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 1 | - | 0 |
| PSU | 2.06 | 2 | 0.25 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2.00 | 2 | (0.06) | 0 |
| M | 3.25 | 3 | 0.68 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3.73 | 4 | 0.48 | 1 |
| UW | 3.75 | 4 | 0.45 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3.53 | 3 | (0.22) | -1 |
| Iowa | 4.94 | 5 | 0.25 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5.73 | 6 | 0.80 | 1 |
| MSU | 7.19 | 6 | 0.98 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 5.13 | 5 | (2.05) | -1 |
| NU | 7.25 | 7 | 1.34 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 9.73 | 10 | 2.48 | 3 |
| MD | 7.94 | 8 | 1.48 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 7.13 | 7 | (0.80) | -1 |
| PU | 8.88 | 9 | 1.41 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 9.20 | 9 | 0.32 | 0 |
| IU | 9.13 | 10 | 1.41 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 8.67 | 8 | (0.46) | -2 |
| MN | 10.81 | 11 | 0.91 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 10.13 | 11 | (0.68) | 0 |
| ILL | 12.13 | 12 | 0.72 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 12.60 | 12 | 0.48 | 0 |
| UNL | 12.88 | 13 | 0.72 | 12 | 14 | 2 | 12.73 | 13 | (0.14) | 0 |
| RU | 13.81 | 14 | 0.40 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 13.67 | 14 | (0.15) | 0 |
Drop the high and low:
| Team/Poster | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range | LW AVG | LW Rank | Chg Avg | Chg Rank |
| tOSU | 1.00 | 1 | - | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 1 | - | 0 |
| PSU | 2.00 | 2 | - | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2.00 | 2 | - | 0 |
| M | 3.21 | 3 | 0.43 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3.69 | 4 | 0.48 | 1 |
| UW | 3.79 | 4 | 0.43 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3.38 | 3 | (0.40) | -1 |
| Iowa | 5.00 | 5 | - | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5.77 | 6 | 0.77 | 1 |
| MSU | 7.14 | 6.5 | 0.86 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 5.15 | 5 | (1.99) | -1.5 |
| NU | 7.14 | 6.5 | 1.17 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 9.77 | 10 | 2.63 | 3.5 |
| MD | 7.93 | 8 | 1.38 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 7.23 | 7 | (0.70) | -1 |
| PU | 8.86 | 9 | 0.95 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 9.15 | 9 | 0.30 | 0 |
| IU | 9.21 | 10 | 1.12 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 8.62 | 8 | (0.60) | -2 |
| MN | 10.93 | 11 | 0.47 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 10.23 | 11 | (0.70) | 0 |
| ILL | 12.14 | 12 | 0.66 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 12.54 | 12 | 0.40 | 0 |
| UNL | 12.86 | 13 | 0.66 | 12 | 14 | 2 | 12.69 | 13 | (0.16) | 0 |
| RU | 13.86 | 14 | 0.36 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 13.69 | 14 | (0.16) | 0 |
Various graphical representations:
<br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/jVzgop/B1_GPR_2018_wk6_pre_curr.jpg) (https://ibb.co/jVzgop)<br /><br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/gvh1op/B1_GPR_2018_wk6.jpg) (https://ibb.co/gvh1op)<br /><br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/jtwSTp/B1_GPR_2018_wk6_dist.jpg) (https://ibb.co/jtwSTp)<br />
Schedule/performance chart:
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
| . | Team | tOSU | PSU | M | UW | Iowa | MSU | NU | MD | PU | IU | MN | ILL | UNL | RU | Team | . |
| 1 | tOSU | n/a | L by 1, H | 11/24, A | miss | miss | 11/10, H | miss | 11/17, H | 10/20, H | L by 23, A | 10/13, A | miss | 11/3, A | L by 49, A | tOSU | 1 |
| 2 | PSU | W by 1, A | n/a | 11/3, H | 11/10, A | 10/27, A | 10/13, A | miss | 11/24, A | miss | 10/20, H | miss | L by 39, H | miss | 11/17, H | PSU | 2 |
| 3 | M | 11/24, H | 11/3, A | n/a | 10/13, A | miss | 10/20, H | L by 3, H | L by 21, A | miss | 11/17, A | miss | miss | L by 46, A | 11/10, H | M | 3 |
| 4 | UW | miss | 11/10, H | 10/13, H | n/a | L by 11, H | miss | 10/27, H | miss | 11/17, H | miss | 11/24, A | 10/20, A | L by 17, A | 11/3, A | UW | 4 |
| 5 | Iowa | miss | 10/27, H | miss | W by 11, A | n/a | miss | 11/10, A | 10/20, A | 11/3, H | 10/13, H | L by 17, H | 11/17, H | 11/23, A | miss | Iowa | 5 |
| 6 | MSU | 11/10, A | 10/13, H | 10/20, A | miss | miss | n/a | W by 10, A | 11/3, H | 10/27, A | L by 14, H | miss | miss | 11/17, H | 11/24, A | MSU | 6 |
| 7 | NU | miss | miss | W by 3, A | 10/27, A | 11/10, H | L by 10, H | n/a | miss | L by 4, H | miss | 11/17, A | 11/24, A | 10/13, A | 10/20, H | NU | 7 |
| 8 | MD | 11/17, A | 11/24, H | W by 21, H | miss | 10/20, H | 11/3, A | miss | n/a | miss | 11/10, H | L by 29, A | 10/27, A | miss | 10/13, A | MD | 8 |
| 9 | PU | 10/20, A | miss | miss | 11/17, A | 11/3, A | 10/27, H | W by 4, A | miss | n/a | 11/24, H | 11/10, H | 10/13, H | L by 14, H | miss | PU | 9 |
| 10 | IU | W by 23, H | 10/20, A | 11/17, H | miss | 10/13, A | W by 14, A | miss | 11/10, A | 11/24, A | n/a | 10/26, H | miss | miss | L by 7, H | IU | 10 |
| 11 | MN | 10/13, H | miss | miss | 11/24, H | W by 17, A | miss | 11/17, A | W by 29, H | 11/10, A | 10/26, A | n/a | 11/3, H | 10/20, H | miss | MN | 11 |
| 12 | ILL | miss | W by 39, A | miss | 10/20, H | 11/17,A | miss | 11/24, H | 10/27, H | 10/13, A | miss | 11/3, A | n/a | 11/10, H | L by 21, H | ILL | 12 |
| 13 | UNL | 11/3, H | miss | W by 46, H | W by 17, H | 11/23, H | 11/17, A | 10/13, H | miss | W by 14, A | miss | 10/20, A | 11/10, A | n/a | miss | UNL | 13 |
| 14 | RU | W by 49, H | 11/17, A | 11/10, A | 11/3, H | miss | 11/24, H | 10/20, A | 10/13, H | miss | W by 7, A | miss | W by 21, A | miss | n/a | RU | 14 |
| . | Team | tOSU | PSU | M | UW | Iowa | MSU | NU | MD | PU | IU | MN | ILL | UNL | RU | Team | . |
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
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(Last,...,Preseason)
1. OSU (1,1,1,1,1,1)
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2. PSU (2,2,2,3,7,6)
3. Michigan (3,3,4,4,4,3)
4. UW (4,4,5,2,2,4)
5. Iowa (5,5,3,5,5,5)
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6. MSU (6,6,6,6,3,2)
7. Indiana (7,7,7,11,11,11)
8. Northwestern (10,10,9,8,8,8)
9. Purdue (9,9,11,9,9,7)
10. Maryland (8,8,8,7,6,9)
11. Minnesota (11,12,12,12,12,12)
12. Nebraska (12,11,10,10,10,10)
13. Illinois (13,13,13,14,14,14)
14. Rutger (14,14,14,13,13,13)
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Ok, I wasn't sure if I was being a homer, but I wasn't seeing a way to drop MSU. I already had them #6, when most had them #5, I just now think the gap ga above them, not below them.
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0h what to do with MSU, NW, Purdue and MD
1. OSU
2. PSU
3. Wisc
4. Mich
5. Iowa
6. Pur
7. MD
8. NW
9. MSU
10. Indy
11. Minn
12. ILL
13. Rut
14. Neb
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1. Ohio State (1)
2. Penn State (2)
3. Michigan (3)
4. Wisconsin (4)
5. Iowa (6)
6. Northwestern (8)
7. Michigan State (5)
8. Maryland (7)
9. Purdue (9)
10. Indiana (10)
11. Illinois (12)
12. Minnesota (11)
13. Nebraska (13)
14. Rutger (14)
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1 Buckeyes
2 Nittany Lions
3 Wolverines
4 Badgers
.
5 Hawkeyes
6 Wildcats
7 Spartans
8 Terrapins
9 Boilermakers
.
10 Hoosiers
11 Golden Gophers
12 Fighting Illini
13 Scarlet Knights
14 Corn Huskers
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(Last,...,Preseason)
1. OSU (1,1,1,1,1,1)
----
2. PSU (2,2,2,3,7,6)
3. Michigan (3,3,4,4,4,3)
4. UW (4,4,5,2,2,4)
5. Iowa (5,5,3,5,5,5)
----
6. MSU (6,6,6,6,3,2)
7. Indiana (7,7,7,11,11,11)
8. Northwestern (10,10,9,8,8,8)
9. Purdue (9,9,11,9,9,7)
10. Maryland (8,8,8,7,6,9)
11. Minnesota (11,12,12,12,12,12)
12. Nebraska (12,11,10,10,10,10)
13. Illinois (13,13,13,14,14,14)
14. Rutger (14,14,14,13,13,13)
This looks good.
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Iowa
6. Northwestern
7. Michigan State
8. Maryland
9. Purdue
10. Indiana
11. Minnesota
12. Illinois
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers
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1) Ohio State
2) Penn State
3) Michigan
4) Wisconsin
5) Iowa
6) Northwestern
7) Michigan State
8) Purdue
9) Maryland
10) Indiana
11) Minnesota
12) Nebraska
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
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1. OSU
2. PSU
3. Wisc
4. Mich
5. Iowa
6. Maryland
7. Purdue
8. NW
9. MSU
10. Indy
11. ILL
12. Minnesota
13. Rut
14. Neb
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Michigan State
7. Northwestern
8. Purdue
9. Indiana
10. Maryland
11. Minnesota
12. Illinois
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers
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Ok, I wasn't sure if I was being a homer, but I wasn't seeing a way to drop MSU. I already had them #6, when most had them #5, I just now think the gap ga above them, not below them.
Yeah we are finally far enough into the season that "having a good handle on the teams" can sometimes mean they keep the same ranking, even in defeat.
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Yeah we are finally far enough into the season that "having a good handle on the teams" can sometimes mean they keep the same ranking, even in defeat.
Yeah, most of the computer rankings agree, dropped them from 5 to 6. I already had zero basis for ranking then ahead of Iowa. This overreaction to Northwestern winning is laughable though. They still shouldn't be above like 8 or 9.
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If the objective is to determine who would win on a neutral field, then Northwestern should clearly be ranked ahead of Sparty after a double digit win in E Lansing.
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Iowa
6. Maryland
7. Northwestern
8. Michigan State
9. Indiana
10. Minnesota
11. Illinois
12. Purdue
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers
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If the objective is to determine who would win on a neutral field, then Northwestern should clearly be ranked ahead of Sparty after a double digit win in E Lansing.
And Akron won at Northwestern, so where would they be in your rankings?
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And Akron won at Northwestern, so where would they be in your rankings?
They would have been ranked ahead of Northwestern for at least one week.
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They would have been ranked ahead of Northwestern for at least one week.
I don't care where you rank MSU. Put them 9th and put Northwestern 8th. But putting Northwestern 6th is recency bias to a hilarious level.
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Both teams have similar records, play at the same level in the same conference, and just played a game where the home team lost by double digits.
It's not like we are talking about Penn St barfing up a game to Rutgers here.
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Good
1. Ohio State (--) - Survived a pesky IU squad
2. Penn State (--) - Bye Week
3. Wisconsin (--) - Clobber-snocked the Huskers
4. Iowa (--) - Took care of the Gophers
5. Michigan (--) - Handled Maryland
Not Good
6. Maryland (+1) - They lost to a better team than Sparty
7. Michigan State (-1) - The middle is still a mess
8. Minnesota (--) - competitive in loss
9. Indiana (--) - did they show the formula to beat the Buckeyes?
10. Northwestern (+1) - Nice win
11. Purdue (-1) - Bye Week
Bad
12. Nebraska (--) - PLayed with some heart, for a bit.
13. Illinois (--) - Won the toilet Bowl!
14. Rutgers (--) - Super Sad Sad Panda
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I don't care where you rank MSU. Put them 9th and put Northwestern 8th. But putting Northwestern 6th is recency bias to a hilarious level.
NU does this crap every year. They lose and then they win.
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Either that or they get off to a hot start and then tank.
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NU does this crap every year. They lose and then they win.
To an extent, you're right. That's always been true. In the modern era of CFB scheduling, it is generally expected that a team's conference record will could be worse than their OOC. But a stat I remember emphasizing during the Lloyd Carr era is that only Michigan and NU averaged/performed better in conference than out. Of course, NU wasn't winning many Big Ten championships during that era, but this is still consistent with the pattern being old and classic.
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1. OSU: A couple plays a game from being the best team in the nation
2. PSU: Still have some things to prove
3. Michigan: Defense, run, win
4. Wisconsin: Big game this week
5. Iowa: Breaking into the top 5
6. Northwestern: No shame the past two weeks
7. MSU: Surprising they aren't better
8. Purdue: Recovering from early miscues
9. Maryland: At least they beat Texas
10. Indiana: They got some fight
11. Minnesota: Still need some work
12. Nebraska: Still bad
13. Illinois: Bad
14. Rutgers: Putrid
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Iowa
6. Maryland
7. Northwestern
8. Michigan State
9. Indiana
10. Minnesota
11. Illinois
12. Purdue
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers
Man. I wish.
We lose to Indiana, Ohio State, Iowa, and PSU with 80% combined certainty.
Michigan St, at home...still say we lose, once you add in the ref factor.
So, I can "think" confidently that we beat Rutgers, and maybe Illinois.
And given that the QB whisperer can't get an UA All-American to throw a pass, I don't think we win another.
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1. (1) Ohio State: They are still here thanks to the Penn State win, but something just feels off against the team. I think it is fortunate the Michigan game is at home right now.
2. (2) Penn State: Off this week (probably a good week for it). Will be telling if come out on fire or struggle after tough OSU loss.
3. (4) Michigan: Considered moving them to #2, but want to see that kind of performance on the road. Northwestern close game looks little more acceptable now and defense absolutely dominated a decent Maryland team.
4. (3) Wisconsin: They still have everything in the world to play for, but this is a Wisconsin team I could actually see blowing their lead. Still rightfully the favorite in the west, but not best Wisconsin team we've seen.
5. (5) Iowa: Sloppy game against Minnesota, but pulled it off.
6. (8) Northwestern: Next few spots very close. I kind of hate to have a Northwestern squad that might not even end up bowl eligible here, but they have wins at Purdue and vs. Michigan State and took Michigan to the wire. Things are looking up (as usual at this point in the season) for the Wildcats.
7. (6) Michigan State: This team should be better than it has played. That said, if play doesn't pick up, could see dropping it back few spots.
8. (7) Maryland: Dropped a spot, but more because I wanted to move Northwestern up then them down. If had been more in game with Wolverines would have pushed up a bit, but not a good game. Still have the Texas win and dominating win over Minnesota.
9. (9) Purdue: Bye this week. Playing like can move up.
10. (10) Minnesota: Had chance vs. Iowa.
11. (11) Indiana: They were in the game vs. Ohio State quiete awhile.
12. (12) Illinois: Big Ten win this week! Wasn't too far from moving them above Indiana base don results, but couldn't quite do it.
13. (13) Nebraska: Season is lost, but starting to look a bit better.
14. (14) Rutgers: I know contracts are issues, but Rutgers might have to find money for coaching change here. There is just too little promise. Need to hope Maryland lets the Michigan loss hurt them twice.
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I usually start with LetsGoPeay's rankings and then move Indiana up, because I usually see things identically otherwise, but I don't see his up yet ;)
ETA: oops, it was up there and I missed it. I did this one without training wheels.
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Iowa
6. Indiana
7. Northwestern
8. Michigan State
9. Maryland
10. Purdue
11. Minnesota
12. Illinois
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers
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1) Ohio State
2) Michigan
3) Penn State
4) Wisconsin
5) Iowa
6) Maryland
7) Northwestern
8) Michigan State
9) Purdue
10) Indiana
11) Minnesota
12) Illinois
13) Nebraska
14) Rutgers
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Based solely on point differential, ignoring W-L record (conf games only):
1. Ohio St
2. Michigan
3. Penn St
4. Wisconsin
5. Purdue
6. Maryland
7. Northwestern
8. Iowa
9. Michigan St
10. Illinois
11. Indiana
12. Minnesota
13. (tie) Rutgers, Nebraska
SOS Average (you know, CONTEXT!):
1. Nebraska
2. Northwestern
3. Penn St
4. Minnesota
5. Rutgers
6. (tie) Maryland, Indiana
8. Michigan St
9. Iowa
10. Ohio St
11. Michigan
12. Illinois
13. Purdue
14. Wisconsin
Point Diff +/- SOS:
1. Penn St
2. Ohio St
3. Michigan
4. Northwestern
5. Maryland
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan St
8. Iowa
9. Purdue
10. Indiana
11. Nebraska
12. Illinois
13. Minnesota
14. Rutgers
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5. (5) Iowa: Sloppy game against Minnesota, but pulled it off.
Offering an explanation, not an excuse. Iowa started two freshman cornerbacks due to injuries to starters and Minnesota spent the entire game picking on them. The cornerbacks got three interceptions, but gave up a lot of yards. Fortunately, the Iowa offense didn't stick with their usual mentality of run, run, pass on 3rd and long.
I believe the starters will be in place on Saturday at cornerback against Indiana, but now there are more depth problems at an already thin linebacking corps.
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S&P+ Ratings this week:
.
4. OSU (Rating percentile, 97.6% - Offense Rk, 3 / Defense Rk, 27 / Special Teams Rk, 54)
5. Michigan (96.8% - 25/2/8)
7. PSU (96.3% - 9/20/98)
13. Wisconsin (89.0% - 8/55/23)
26. Iowa (81.2% - 75/8/46)
31. MSU (77.2% - 62/24/37)
48. Purdue (65.6% - 23/81/87)
55. Indiana (59.7% - 81/38/64)
57. Minnesota (57.6% - 111/16/3)
58. Northwestern (56.8% - 97/31/114)
68. Maryland (45.8% - 85/57/15)
71. Nebraska (47.3% - 67/73/115)
100. Illinois (26.8% - 77/103/29)
119. Rutgers (8.2% - 123/86/9)
.
Offense Only:
.
1. OSU (3)
2. Wisconsin (8)
3. PSU (9)
4. Purdue (23)
5. Michigan (25)
6. MSU (62)
7. Nebraska (67)
8. Iowa (75)
9. Illinois (77)
10. Indiana (81)
11. Maryland (85)
12. Northwestern (97)
13. Minnesota (111)
14. Rutgers (123)
.
Five teams in the Top 25 for offense now. The gap between #5 and #6, though, is massive.
.
Defense Only:
.
1. Michigan (2)
2. Iowa (8)
3. Minnesota (16)
4. PSU (20)
5. MSU (24)
6. OSU (27)
7. Northwestern (31)
8. Indiana (38)
9. Wisconsin (55)
10. Maryland (57)
11. Nebraska (73)
12. Purdue (81)
13. Rutgers (86)
14. Illinois (103)
.
Conference defense took a hit this week with OSU and Indiana knocking each other out of the Top 25.
.
Special Teams Only:
.
1. Minnesota (3)
2. Rutgers (9)
3. Michigan (8)
4. Maryland (15)
5. Wisconsin (23)
6. Illinois (29)
7. MSU (37)
8. Iowa (46)
9. OSU (54)
10. Indiana (64)
11. Purdue (87)
12. PSU (98)
13. Northwestern (114)
14. Nebraska (115)
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Offering an explanation, not an excuse. Iowa started two freshman cornerbacks due to injuries to starters and Minnesota spent the entire game picking on them. The cornerbacks got three interceptions, but gave up a lot of yards. Fortunately, the Iowa offense didn't stick with their usual mentality of run, run, pass on 3rd and long.
I believe the starters will be in place on Saturday at cornerback against Indiana, but now there are more depth problems at an already thin linebacking corps.
Based on the latest depth chart, Iowa has 2 true freshman starting again at CB against Indiana. Iowa's top 2 MLB are out and they are shifting thier outside LB to middle LB to start.
It could be a long day for the Iowa defense against Indiana. Iowa may play a lot of 5 DB packages with 3 safetys since they got 3 good safetys. A lot depends on who is healthy by game time.
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1) Ohio State
2) Michigan
I wondered if anyone would do this. I just can't bring myself to rank Michigan which lost to a (then) not very good Notre Dame team ahead of a Penn State team that lost to a much better Ohio State. OTOH, I was thinking about ranking "Good Michigan" #1 and "Bad Michigan" somewhere around #8.
@SuperMario (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1596) should appreciate this: Maybe it is just me, but I feel like Michigan is a high ceiling / low floor type team. When they are good, they are REALLY good but when they are bad they seem to fall off more than other similar teams.
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- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Iowa
- Michigan State
- Maryland
- Indiana
- Purdue
- Northwestern
- Minnesota
- Illinois
- Nebraska
- Rutgers
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Results posted, votes through me (16 voters).
Movements this week:
- UW/M flipped.
- MSU was down 1.5 into a tie with NU (passed by IA)
- NU was up 3.5 into a tie with MSU for 6/7
- UMD was down 1 (passed by NU)
- IU was down 2 (passed by PU and NU)
At least half of us agree on:
- #1 tOSU: unanimous
- #2 PSU: 15 of 16
- #3 M: 11 of 16
- #4 UW: 12 of 16
- #5 Iowa: 15 of 16
- #9 PU: 8 of 16
- #10 IU: 8 of 16
- #11 MN: 11 of 16
- #12 ILL: 8 of 16
- #13 UNL: 8 of 16
- #14 RU: 13 of 16
Where there is major disagreement is for #6, #7, and especially #8. No team got more than four votes for #8. Northwestern and Maryland got 4 each, Purdue and MSU got 3 each, IU and MN got 1 each.
The only non-contiguous votes this week were @TyphonInc (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=8) and I who both voted NU #10. Everybody else had the Wildcats sixth (6 voters), seventh (4 voters) or eighth (4 voters).
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Please explain this one. They just played, in East Lansing.
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Looking ahead to week 7:
- #11 Minnesota at #1 Ohio State
- #6/7 Michigan State at #2 Penn State
- #4 Wisconsin at #3 Michigan
- #5 Iowa at #10 Indiana
- #13 Nebraska at #6/7 Northwestern
- #14 Rutgers at # 8 Maryland
- #9 Purdue at #12 Illinois
Nobody has a bye or OOC game so we get seven B1G matchups.
Wisconsin at Michigan is a pretty obvious choice for @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's "Game of the Week" as they are both top-4 and adjacent in the Power Rankings. Additionally, they have spent the last three weeks trading the #3 and #4 spots so this should sort that out.
Michigan State at Penn State is a huge game for both teams as well. Both are a game down to the Buckeyes and Wolverines in the loss column in the B1G-E so the loser here would need a near-miracle to get to Indianapolis.
Iowa at Indiana is interesting for Power Rankings purposes.
Purdue at Illinois is interesting for bowl eligibility. The Illini would need three more wins and the Boilermakers need four more wins to go bowling and this game would probably have to be one of those.
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Please explain this one. They just played, in East Lansing.
Speaking for myself, it is about body-of-work. I can't figure out Northwestern. If I ranked them based on their wins over PU and MSU I would probably rank them #6. If I ranked them based on their losses to Dook and Akron I would probably rank them #13. I need to see more before I start treating the wins as their basis and those losses as "flukes".
I'm having trouble figuring out where to rank Michigan State as well. The home loss to Northwestern and close win over Utah State are problematic but Utah State is 4-0 since then including a win over BYU (you might remember them from somewhere . . .). I don't hold the road loss in Tempe too strongly against them because lots of teams lose games they shouldn't when the games are played several timezones away. Additionally, other than their loss to SDSU, the Sun Devils look pretty good. They were competitive with Washington and Colorado (both on the road) and blew out Oregon State.
In both cases, we'll know more soon. Michigan State's next two games are at #2 Penn State and vs #3 Michigan. If they are as bad as they looked losing at home by double-digits to Northwestern then they'll get blown out in both of those games and I'll adjust accordingly. Northwestern's next two games are vs #13 UNL and at #14 Rutgers. If they are as good as they looked beating MSU by double-digits in East Lansing then they'll blowout both of those teams and I'll move them up accordingly.
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Please explain this one. They just played, in East Lansing.
Because using that methodology gets really tricky, really quickly. Most of the computer rankings still have Northwestern down at 10th or so in the league. One game doesn't trump a whole season.
Do you have to have MSU ahead of Wisconsin based on how much better Utah State is than BYU? I wouldn't think so.
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Please explain this one. They just played, in East Lansing.
What Medina said. I moved NU up and MSU down, just not enough for them to swap places.
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Last week in parenthesis...
- OHIO STATE (1) - back end of the defense still concerns me
- PENN STATE (2) - IDLE
- MICHIGAN (3) - defense has been unreal for 5 of 6 halfs in Big Ten play
- WISCONSIN (4) - BYU loss becoming increasingly concerning
- IOWA (5) - certainly didn't have anywhere near 79 being the points scored last weekend
- MICHIGAN STATE (6) - probably closer to #11 than #5 now though
- MARYLAND (7) - not a good showing, but that Texas win looks better by the week
- NORTHWESTERN (11) - per usual October rolls around and Northwestern starts looking like an actual team
- PURDUE (8) - IDLE
- INDIANA (9) - very respectable showing in Columbus
- MINNESOTA (10) - had to think scoring 31 would have been enough
- NEBRASKA (12) - took too long for the offense to get rolling
- ILLINOIS (13) - still probably unlikely, but the path to a bowl bid is there
- RUTGERS (14) - their best chance for a conference win ended in a 21 point loss?
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I added in ELA's vote. That breaks the MSU/NU tie for 6/7 in favor of MSU (by the slimmest of margins). Other than that, no changes.
I'm really looking forward to Michigan/Wisconsin. They have been basically tied for four weeks now, ever since Wisconsin's loss to BYU.
- Week 3: Michigan and Iowa were tied for 3/4 with Wisconsin just 0.14 behind.
- Week 4: Michigan was in 3rd with Wisconsin just 0.31 behind in 4th.
- Week 5: Wisconsin was in 3rd with Michigan just 0.31 behind in 4th.
- Week 6: Michigan is in 3rd with Wisconsin just 0.60 behind in 4th.
Barring a REALLY close win by the home team, this week should resolve that tie. Barring an upset loss by tOSU (v#12 MN) or PSU (v #6 MSU) the UW/M winner should be a clear #3.
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Massey composite rankings (89 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- Alabama (1)
- Georgia (2)
- Clemson (5)
- OHIO STATE (3)
- Notre Dame (6)
- PENN STATE (8)
- Oklahoma (7)
- LSU (4)
- MICHIGAN (13)
- West Virginia (11)
- Florida (21)
- Washington (9)
- Kentucky (10)
- Texas (20)
- NC State (15)
- Central Florida (17)
- WISCONSIN (18)
- IOWA (-)
- Miami (16)
- Mississippi State (-)
- Texas A&M (-)
- Duke (24)
- South Carolina (-)
- Auburn (12)
- Stanford (14)
- 42. Michigan State (23)
- 48. Maryland (47)
- 50. Indiana (45)
- 57. Minnesota (53)
- 58. Northwestern (68)
- 65. Purdue (65)
- 82. Illinois (91)
- 105. Nebraska (108)
- 122. Rutgers (116)
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Massey Composite seems to think there's a clustering developing that most(?) posters would deny (OSU/PSU/M as together followed by UW as separate). I'm just not sure. These next three weeks determine so much.
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Massey Composite seems to think there's a clustering developing that most(?) posters would deny (OSU/PSU/M as together followed by UW as separate). I'm just not sure. These next three weeks determine so much.
The computers don't distinguish Wimbush ND from Book ND, so I'm guessing they knock UM for that loss far less than posters do.
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The computers don't distinguish Wimbush ND from Book ND, so I'm guessing they knock UM for that loss far less than posters do.
Is Michigan knocked for playing Wimbush? I wasn't aware. Seems strange, though, given that - even if he sucked in all his other games - in that game his passes were atypically dead-on. Michigan didn't make or let him throw the best game of his life. Something else did. I'd argue it was dumb luck.
I'm sure Michigan would also love to face Book in a rematch now that they've shaken off the week 1 rust.
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I mean, it's early, it doesn't really matter, but with Wimbush for another two games, Notre Dame beat Ball State by 8 and Vandy by 5 in a game they lose if the Vandy player makes a wide open catch.
In three games with book ND has three blowout wins, including a pair over ranked teams.
I'd argue it still doesn't really matter, that BYU is trash, but my guess, and I know it factored into my rankings until BYU fell apart, is that the Notre Dame we see now is not the Notre Dame we had Weeks 1-3.
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I'm just saying that the ND from weeks 2 & 3 are neither the ND from week 1 nor the ND since Book took over.
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Is Michigan knocked for playing Wimbush? I wasn't aware. Seems strange, though, given that - even if he sucked in all his other games - in that game his passes were atypically dead-on. Michigan didn't make or let him throw the best game of his life. Something else did. I'd argue it was dumb luck.
I'm sure Michigan would also love to face Book in a rematch now that they've shaken off the week 1 rust.
I don't know that I'm "knocking" Michigan for losing to Wimbush ND as opposed to Book. I guess I would be if that was the difference between them and Wisconsin but it really isn't, ND either way appears to be far better than BYU.
It is getting awfully subjective to say that an opposing QB just happened to have the game of his life against a team as opposed to saying that the opposing D just didn't play well. I'm not saying you are wrong, just that if we start going down that road we end up in discussions of ridiculous minutiae that can never possibly be resolved.
My thinking is that over the course of the whole season these sorts of things tend to balance out. Maybe ND's QB had the game of his life against Michigan and maybe Nebraska (just in general) played terribly against Michigan. Ok, if those things are true then Michigan looked worse than they are against ND and better than they are against Nebraska.
If I rated Michigan based solely on their loss to (Wimbush) ND I'd have them #5. If I rated Michigan based solely on their win over Nebraska I'd have them #1. On average, #3.
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Ranking the one loss teams solely on "best loss" to "worst loss" I'd go: Penn St, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin. (essentially ranking the teams that they lost to)
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It is getting awfully subjective to say that an opposing QB just happened to have the game of his life against a team as opposed to saying that the opposing D just didn't play well. I'm not saying you are wrong, just that if we start going down that road we end up in discussions of ridiculous minutiae that can never possibly be resolved.
I get that. But the reputation for Wimbush both before and after the Michigan game was that his arm is highly erratic, not accurate and that was consistent with his woeful comp%. Then he played arguably the best defensive backfield of his college career and consistently dropped balls into just the right place.
This is proof of nothing but is suggestive. I'm merely acknowledging that Occam would sooner say that he had a dumb luck day than claim that Michigan's defense is overrated. Especially since so many of Wimbush's - unusually spot on - passes were well defended that day.
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I wondered if anyone would do this. I just can't bring myself to rank Michigan which lost to a (then) not very good Notre Dame team ahead of a Penn State team that lost to a much better Ohio State. OTOH, I was thinking about ranking "Good Michigan" #1 and "Bad Michigan" somewhere around #8.
@SuperMario (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1596) should appreciate this: Maybe it is just me, but I feel like Michigan is a high ceiling / low floor type team. When they are good, they are REALLY good but when they are bad they seem to fall off more than other similar teams.
Lol.. I finally just saw this. This honestly gave me a really good chuckle. Probably one of my favorite/least favorite debates with this group.
I honestly have no idea what to think of Michigan. Until proven otherwise, this staff is fielding the team that beats the teams they should and cannot beat anyone that’s a very good team. I still cringe at the style of offense Harbaugh and Co have been running. It’s just awful to watch and crazy predictable.
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My read of Michigan over Harbaugh's tenure is that the offense isn't very dynamic (though if they can get strong talent together everywhere they can be). So against the better teams that are tougher to defend they struggle to win because they can't rely on the defense to grind it out. They are certainly capable of running the table this year but need a lot to go right.