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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on October 04, 2018, 12:56:51 PM

Title: Northwestern (2-1, 2-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-1, 3-2) Post Game
Post by: ELA on October 04, 2018, 12:56:51 PM
Northwestern Wildcats (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State Spartans (1-0, 3-1)
NOON - East Lansing, MI - FS1
Northwestern came out guns blazing on Saturday, looking for a massive home upset over a top 15 Michigan team, similar to the one they pulled off over this Michigan State program a year ago.  The difference is that Northwestern offense was absolutely humming, while this one was not...and that was before their starting running back retired.  The Wildcats ran out to a 17-0 lead in the first 17 minutes of the game, but it's clear that once the scripted plays ran out, so did Northwestern's offense.  On the first three drives, the Wildcats accumulated 145 yards and 8 first downs, while putting up 17 points.  Over the remaining 9 drives of the game, the Wildcats were shut out, and had 57 yards of offense, only 7 first downs.  The loss of Larkin was noticeable, with Northwestern mustering just 28 rushing yards on 0.8 ypc.  Granted the 6 sacks also had something to do with that.  Right around this time last year, the Northwestern offensive line looked like a complete mess against Wisconsin, and right as the calendar swung to October, they turned it around.  Is that coming this year?  If it is, there aren't any signs of it.  That means the Spartans defensive front should eat.  The pass rush is finally coming around the past two weeks, and if the Spartans can get there with four, that should really ease some pressure on the back end.  The problem is that as bad (inexplicably) as Northwestern's offensive line is (PFF ranks it #12 in the conference), Michigan State's has actually been worse, sliding in at #13.  The issues are in run blocking, where PFF determined a week ago that Connor Hayward had one of the two best weeks for a Big Ten running back...while running for 48 yards on 3.2 ypc.  I said in the preseason that Michigan State was woefully thin, and was fortunate to have fantastic injury luck last season.  So far in 2018, that has not been the case, losing their top cornerback in the preseason, and their punter on an uncalled late hit.  But it's been offensively where the damage has been the worst.  L.J. Scott hasn't played since the first half of the Arizona State game, the injury to Cody White means three of the top four WRs are down, and seemingly most impactful has been multiple injuries along the offensive line.  It's clear from how he looked early in the season, that the coaching staff wanted a more composed Brian Lewerke, less gun slinging, less undesigned run plays.  That wasn't working, he looked tentative, and it was even hurting his passing.  Late in the Indiana game, it seems a shift was allowed to occur, and Lewerke looks freer, more like the guy we saw last year.  Right now, on paper, a dominant Spartan defense (ranked #1 in the conference and top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency) plus Lewerke, at home, should be enough.  But the quick passing game, as a running game has given Michigan State fits the past two seasons.  The Wildcats have scored 93 points, while throwing the ball a combined 83 times.  Last year neither team could run the ball worth a damn, but Lewerke and Thorson combined to go 73-105 for 801 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception.  It seems doubtful that happens again, Lewerke has Felton Davis and some walk ons to throw to, and Thorson looks like a shell of his 2017 self.  But this is the type of offense Dantonio's defenses have traditionally struggled with.  The key is how quickly Michigan State can get there with four.  If they do, they'll be able to disrupt the timing routes, and rely on their talent edge.  If not, it may start to look like last year.
MICHIGAN STATE 31, NORTHWESTERN 16
Title: Re: Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 04, 2018, 04:55:08 PM
I don't see State winning by double digits. It's going to be really close. I think.
Title: Re: Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
Post by: ELA on October 05, 2018, 11:21:22 AM
Sounds like Chewins may play a little more this week?
Title: Re: Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
Post by: ELA on October 05, 2018, 11:22:44 AM
I don't see State winning by double digits. It's going to be really close. I think.
Might be, MSU plays everyone close, but Northwestern was already bad, then lost their starting RB.  Composite computer rankings have them #68, right between Georgia Southern and Marshall.
Title: Re: Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
Post by: ELA on October 05, 2018, 02:32:02 PM
Northwestern now down a pair.  Starting linebacker Nate Hall has apparently been dealing with an injury that isn't getting better, so they'll sit him, and freshman cornerback Greg Newsome, who has gone from out of the two deep into the starting lineup last week, is also out.
Title: Re: Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 05, 2018, 04:36:35 PM
I could see either team getting a defensive TD and game over. I'm betting on a very low scoring game. Neither team with many rushing yards.
Title: Re: Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2018, 04:38:25 PM
I dunno.



What's the weather forecast right now?
Title: Re: Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
Post by: ELA on October 05, 2018, 05:11:34 PM
I dunno.



What's the weather forecast right now?
Earlier I heard off and on rain, but haven't checked again.  I actually think rain helps the offense now, depending on styles.  With passing games based on short, timing routes, I think it benefits WRs who know when their cuts are coming over DBs who don't.  I recall seeing some stats bearing that out, particularly in the NFL, that absent monsoon conditions, short passing games actually thrive in rain.  Northwestern killed MSU with those routes in recent years, but I haven't see them do as much of it this year (granted I haven't watched a ton of them either), so it might be a wash, but if it's just some rain, and no wind, I could see it actually boosting scoring.  Maybe not field goals though.
Title: Re: Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 05, 2018, 05:13:15 PM
That's what I was thinking. Rain helps NU more than it does MSU.
Title: Re: Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2018, 03:33:56 PM
Go Cats!
Title: Re: Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on October 06, 2018, 03:44:19 PM
That's what I was thinking. Rain helps NU more than it does MSU.
Kind of like Brutus-Sparty in 2015
Title: Re: Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
Post by: ELA on October 06, 2018, 03:51:58 PM
There is no way this team is going to a bowl.  Northwestern was one of our three easiest games left.  Have to win in Lincoln and home against Rutgers, then steal one somewhere.

Said in the preseason how horribly think this team was for a team ranked as high as they were.  They got insanely lucky last year with injuries, and that saved them.  This year they are down 7 offensive starters, their punter, and two of their top three corners.  Paying heavily for fantastic injury luck last year
Title: Re: Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on October 06, 2018, 03:56:30 PM
Long season the Terps beat the Horns,now the Horns beat OU.Hard to figure out week to week
Title: Re: Northwestern (2-1, 2-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-1, 3-2) Post Game
Post by: ELA on October 06, 2018, 04:13:36 PM
It's not hard to figure out this offense.  And once teams stop even trying to run, they usually move the ball on this defense pretty well too.

I'd sign up for 6-6 and a bowl right now.
Title: Re: Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-0, 3-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 06, 2018, 05:45:55 PM
Meh, I don't buy that. Even if you treat M/PSU/OSU as losses, which is (obviously) premature, MSU only needs to win 3 out of these 4 -- Purdue, Maryland, Nebraska, Rutgers. It's not strictly guaranteed, but getting 6 wins is more plausible than not.
Title: Re: Northwestern (2-1, 2-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-1, 3-2) Post Game
Post by: ELA on October 06, 2018, 06:31:56 PM
I'll take Rutgers as a win.  They just lost at home by 10 to Northwestern.  How do they win 2 of 3 on the road against Nebraska, Purdue and Maryland?
Title: Re: Northwestern (2-1, 2-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-1, 3-2) Post Game
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 06, 2018, 08:31:38 PM
Sparty will beat Mich again. 
Title: Re: Northwestern (2-1, 2-3) at #20 Michigan State (1-1, 3-2) Post Game
Post by: Mdot21 on October 07, 2018, 11:12:37 PM
Sparty will beat Mich again.
certainly possible if not probable. 
Sparty often plays that one like its their super bowl and now the disappointing season can be saved by beating Michigan.
Also- Harbaugh teams flat out play like shit on the road. Rutgers notwithstanding. It’s a concerning trend that has shown to be true for 3 and a half seasons now. Harbaugh just doesn’t get these guys up on the road and the coaching is too conservative and flat out bad. They are a completely different team at home vs on the road.