CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on August 03, 2026, 11:17:01 AM
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Background:
I read an article once that had some quotes from an anonymous guy who had been an assistant at a major CFB power when they installed the Wishbone (so this was 70s). They spent all off-season working on that then their first game was a buy game against a huge underdog and they didn't want to tip their cap because game #2 was a showdown against another highly ranked team. So apparently in game #1 they BARELY survived running stuff that they hadn't practiced but then won the big showdown in game #2.
If you think about it, the gamble paid off for the coach of that team. Midway through the season basically nobody is going to remember that you *almost* got upset in week #1 but they are definitely going to remember your big win in week #2.
My question is about the other side of that first game. I'll use Texas/Ohio State as the example here because it works well but I'm asking this question more generally, it isn't just about the Bobcats/Cardinals/Longhorns/Buckeyes.
Texas State (Texas' Week #1 opponent) went 6-6/3-5 last year and they were thisclose to 10-2/7-1. Seriously, they lost FOUR games either in OT or by a FG or less (1 point at ArkSt, OT vs Troy, 2OT at Marshall, 3 points at Louisiana). Ball State (Ohio State's Week #1 opponent) went 4-8/3-5 last year.
Of course the Head Coaches at Texas State and Ball State are going to tell the media that they are focused on beating Texas/Ohio State and they want their players to believe they have a chance and give it their all but . . .
How do they actually approach it? If they spend the entire offseason looking at Arch Manning's and Texas' or Julian Sayin's and Ohio State tendencies and weaknesses and game-planning for the Longhorns/Buckeyes they probably increase their chances of pulling the upset from something like 1-2% up to something like 2-3%. Pulling that upset would be HUGE both for their programs and for them as coaches but the chances are realistically still pretty small.
The problem for them is that there is a cost to spending all that time studying and game-planning for Texas/Ohio State. That is time that could have been spent on improving the team more generally and getting better prepared for games that are more realistically winnable.
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If I'm Texas St. or Ball St. I don't worry too much about the 1st game. Practice my base stuff. I'll practice some trick plays that I could use if the game is winnable in the 2nd half but probably just save it for later in the season when it can tip the scale. I'd worry about my conference schedule, conservative game plan, run the clock, and just take the money.
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I hope Wisconsin is focused on their opener with fND at Lambeau Field and not looking ahead to Western Illinois.
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If I'm Texas St. or Ball St. I don't worry too much about the 1st game. Practice my base stuff. I'll practice some trick plays that I could use if the game is winnable in the 2nd half but probably just save it for later in the season when it can tip the scale. I'd worry about my conference schedule, conservative game plan, run the clock, and just take the money.
This is how I'd approach it.
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Wow I'm a big fan of Peyton Manning but at his age, I'm not sure how I feel about him starting for the Longhorns...
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I wouldn't have guessed that you were a big fan of Peyton Manning
Tony Romo, yes
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I wouldn't have guessed that you were a big fan of Peyton Manning
Tony Romo, yes
Peyton's great. Liked him in college, liked him in the pros, love his commercials and cameos and acting and comedy and whatnot.
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Wow I'm a big fan of Peyton Manning but at his age, I'm not sure how I feel about him starting for the Longhorns...
Oops, fixed my typo
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Peyton's great. Liked him in college, liked him in the pros, love his commercials and cameos and acting and comedy and whatnot.
nerd comedy - I shoulda guessed
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Tony Romo, yes
I like Romo as a broadcaster and am a little miffed that he got popped with a DUI and CBS is replacing him with JJ Watt.
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I like Romo as a broadcaster and am a little miffed that he got popped with a DUI and CBS is replacing him with JJ Watt.
They are both from Wisconsin.
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I also like Romo as a broadcaster
much better than JJ
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I like Romo as a broadcaster and am a little miffed that he got popped with a DUI and CBS is replacing him with JJ Watt.
Kind of a dick move unless he's a repeat offender or he previously p.o.ed the boss and this was his opening
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How do they actually approach it? If they spend the entire offseason looking at Arch Manning's and Texas' or Julian Sayin's and Ohio State tendencies and weaknesses and game-planning for the Longhorns/Buckeyes they probably increase their chances of pulling the upset from something like 1-2% up to something like 2-3%. Pulling that upset would be HUGE both for their programs and for them as coaches but the chances are realistically still pretty small.
The problem for them is that there is a cost to spending all that time studying and game-planning for Texas/Ohio State. That is time that could have been spent on improving the team more generally and getting better prepared for games that are more realistically winnable.
I don't know how they actually approach it, but I would assume that if it were me, I'd be focusing on my team's core competency. I might spend more of the mental effort on the emotional side of "taking on the big boys" rather than try to waste my team's time making them do something they can't execute and that distracts them from what they're going to have to do in conference play.
As you point out, the chances of an upset are slim. So focus on what you do and hope you catch the other team napping, get some good bounces / turnovers, etc...
I'd probably have a couple of unique wrinkles, maybe a trick play or two that could be brought out situationally... But I wouldn't deviate too much from doing what my team does.
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Kind of a dick move unless he's a repeat offender or he previously p.o.ed the boss and this was his opening
apparently, his salary was sizable.
could have made him a liability
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How often does a pastry beat a top team early? I can recall once, maybe some other close calls. Do you replay the film of Appy State the night before?
It's doubly tough because the top team is going to be pumped at least early on, first game and all. I agree the coach should practice execution of their game, not put in anything or much weird to try and win. Listening to his speech pregame might be interesting.
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I don't know how they actually approach it, but I would assume that if it were me, I'd be focusing on my team's core competency. I might spend more of the mental effort on the emotional side of "taking on the big boys" rather than try to waste my team's time making them do something they can't execute and that distracts them from what they're going to have to do in conference play.
As you point out, the chances of an upset are slim. So focus on what you do and hope you catch the other team napping, get some good bounces / turnovers, etc...
I'd probably have a couple of unique wrinkles, maybe a trick play or two that could be brought out situationally... But I wouldn't deviate too much from doing what my team does.
I agree with this, pretty similar to what @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) said upthread as well.
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How often does a pastry beat a top team early? I can recall once, maybe some other close calls. Do you replay the film of Appy State the night before?
It should be noted that the Michigan team that ApSt upset wasn't nearly as good as their preseason #5 ranking and that obviously helped the Mountaineers a LOT.
Michigan dropped all the way from #5 to unranked then got obliterated by Oregon which wasn't a conference game at the time. After the Oregon loss the Wolverines didn't even receive any votes for two weeks but they smoked what turned out to be a terrible Notre Dame team then beat a pretty good Penn State team and got back to getting votes.
They rattled off eight straight wins and got all the way up to #13 at 8-2 but then lost badly (37-21) in Madison and dropped to #23 before losing at home to Ohio State and dropping back out. They finished the season with an also-ran Capital One Bowl win over Florida and were ranked #18 in the final poll. Unranked ApSt upsetting #18 Michigan doesn't have the same shock value.
My point is that if you are the heavy underdog you can't realistically win just based on what YOU do. Ie, Ohio State and Texas are probable preseason top-5 teams and if they are legitimate top-5 teams then how well BallSt/TexasSt play against them will only impact the margin, the end result is a foregone conclusion. The upset is only a possibility if the favorite is overrated or the favorite plays really poorly or some combination of the two.
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Maybe not, but Michigan should never lose to App. State. Never.
But I loved it when Michigan did.
:)
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I dimly recall when Stanford was a 43 point dog and beat USC. We all realize it's possible given certain events, just very improbable.
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Rhule needs to pull an upset this season
it's been since 2015 for the Huskers
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That Stanford team may have had the best 4-8 season in football history. First, it upset USC, beating the 43-point spread, the largest in history. USC finished the year AP #3.
And if you know anything about the old Pac-10/12 conference, beating USC is always a big deal. The bigger the upset, the bigger the deal.
Then Stanford upset Cal--it's primary rival--for the first time in six years (and the first under Harbaugh), to finish the season on a win, and with the trophy Stanford most covets (the Axe). Cal finished the year 7-6, with a bowl win over Air Force (it had started the year AP #12!).
If you're going to suck, at least beat your main rival and shock the nation with an historic upset of a national title contender.
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It seems to be the consensus, and I agree....
Use the game as an extra practice to solidify what you do best, and play mistake free fundamental football.
If you find yourself in a game, a winnable one at that --- this is what got you there, so keep doing it.