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The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on July 27, 2026, 04:20:17 PM

Title: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 27, 2026, 04:20:17 PM
Using the combined SP+ and FPI ratings to simulate the season.

Again, not just assuming the favorite wins, but putting using the odds that team would win
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 27, 2026, 04:31:42 PM
Projected Preseason Top 25

Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 27, 2026, 06:02:18 PM
WEEK ZERO
Saturday, August 29
#17 USC d. San Jose State

Florida State d. NM State
Hawaii d. Stanford
ND State d. Jacksonville State
Sacramento State d. Eastern Michigan
TCU d. North Carolina
UNLV d. Memphis
Virginia d. NC State
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 28, 2026, 02:07:26 PM
WEEK ONE
Thursday, September 3
#18 Utah d. Idaho
#23 Missouri d. UA Pine Bluff

Buffalo d. Albany
Central Florida d. Bethune-Cookman
Delaware d. Merrimack
Georgia Tech d. Colorado
ILLINOIS d. UAB
Kennesaw State d. West Georgia
MINNESOTA d. Eastern Illinois
RUTGERS d. Massachusetts
Wake Forest d. Akron

Friday, September 4
#7 Miami d. Stanford
#12 Oklahoma d. UTEP
#17 USC d. Fresno State

Eastern Michigan d. San Jose State
Georgia State d. North Carolina A&T
Kansas d. Long Island
MICHIGAN STATE d. Toledo
PURDUE d. Indiana State
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 28, 2026, 03:27:58 PM
WEEK ONE
Saturday, September 5
ESPN College Gameday, live from Baton Rouge, LA
#25 Clemson d. #11 LSU

#1 OHIO STATE d. Ball State
#2 OREGON d. Boise State
#4 INDIANA d. North Texas
#5 Georgia d. Tennessee State
#6 Texas d. Texas State
#8 Texas A&M d. Missouri State
#9 Texas Tech d. Abilene Christian
#13 BYU d. Utah Tech
#14 MICHIGAN d. Western Michigan
#15 Alabama d. East Carolina
#16 PENN STATE d. Marshall
#20 IOWA d. Northern Illinois
#21 Arizona d. Northern Arizona
#22 Tennessee d. Furman

Air Force d. Duquesne
Appalachian State d. Maine
Arizona State d. Morgan State
Arkansas d. North Alabama
Army d. Bryant
Auburn d. Baylor
Bowling Green d. Tarleton State
California d. UCLA
Charlotte d. The Citadel
Cincinnati d. Boston College
Colorado State d. Wyoming
Connecticut d. Lafayette
Duke d. Tulane
Florida d. Florida Atlantic
Georgia Southern d. Charleston Southern
Houston d. Oregon State
Iowa State d. SE Missouri State
Jacksonville State d. Eastern Kentucky
James Madison d. Liberty
Kansas State d. Nicholls
Kentucky d. Youngstown State
Louisiana d. Lamar
Louisiana Tech d. Northwestern State
MARYLAND d. Hampton
Memphis d. Arkansas State
Middle Tennessee d. Murray State
Mississippi State d. UL Monroe
Navy d. Towson
ND State d. Fordham
NEBRASKA d. Ohio
New Mexico d. Central Michigan
Nevada d. Western Kentucky
NM State d. Mercyhurst
NORTHWESTERN d. South Dakota State
Oklahoma State d. Tulsa
Old Dominion d. Norfolk State
Pittsburgh d. Miami(Ohio)
Rice d. Houston Christian
Sacramento State d. Mississippi Valley State
San Diego State d. Portland State
South Alabama d. SE Louisiana
South Carolina d. Kent State
South Florida d. FIU
Southern Miss d. Alcorn State
Syracuse d. New Hampshire
Temple d. Rhode Island
Troy d. Sam Houston
UNLV d. Hawaii
Utah State d. Idaho State
UTSA d. UTRGV
Vanderbilt d. Austin Peay
Virginia Tech d. VMI
West Virginia d. Coastal Carolina
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 28, 2026, 03:32:43 PM
And on Sunday Wisconsin beats Notre Dame, right?

RIGHT?
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 28, 2026, 03:36:08 PM
WEEK ONE
Sunday, September 6
#3 Notre Dame d. WISCONSIN
#19 WASHINGTON d. Washington State
#10 Ole Miss d. #24 Louisville

Monday, September 7
SMU d. Florida State
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 28, 2026, 03:36:19 PM
And on Sunday Wisconsin beats Notre Dame, right?

RIGHT?
We were all hoping
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 28, 2026, 03:45:24 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/qgMn7sK.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/uLxnMvi.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/pXroYby.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 28, 2026, 03:58:10 PM
September 8 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: MikeDeTiger on July 28, 2026, 04:00:13 PM
Oh look, even in theory we can't win a season opener.  
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 28, 2026, 04:12:13 PM
WEEK TWO
Thursday, September 10
#7 Miami d. Florida A&M

Friday, September 11
#24 Missouri d. Kansas

Boston College d. RUTGERS
Louisville d. Villanova
NC State d. Richmond
Virginia d. Norfolk State
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 29, 2026, 09:24:51 PM
WEEK TWO
Saturday, September 12
ESPN College Gameday, live from Austin, TX
#1 OHIO STATE d. #6 Texas

#2 OREGON d. Oklahoma State
#3 Notre Dame d. Rice
#4 INDIANA d. Howard
#5 Georgia d. Western Kentucky
#8 Texas A&M d. Arizona State
#9 Texas Tech d. Oregon State
#10 Ole Miss d. Charlotte
#13 MICHIGAN d. #11 Oklahoma
#12 BYU d. #22 Arizona
Kentucky d. #14 Alabama
#15 PENN STATE d. Temple
#16 USC d. Louisiana
#17 Clemson d. Georgia Southern
#18 Utah d. Arkansas
#19 WASHINGTON d. Utah State
#20 IOWA d. Iowa State
#21 LSU d. Louisiana Tech
Georgia Tech d. #23 Tennessee
#24 Missouri d. Kansas
#25 Auburn d. Southern Miss

Air Force d. ND State
Akron d. Robert Morris
Arkansas State d. West Georgia
Ball State d. Stony Brook
Baylor d. Prairie View A&M
Boise State d. Memphis
Buffalo d. FIU
Central Michigan d. Colgate
Cincinnati d. Western Carolina
Coastal Carolina d. Fordham
Colorado d. Weber State
Colorado State d. Southern Utah
Duke d. ILLINOIS
East Carolina d. Appalachian State
Florida d. Campbell
Fresno State d. Sacramento State
Hawaii d. NM State
Houston d. Southern
Jacksonville State d. Ohio
James Madison d. Wagner
Kansas State d. Washington State
Kennesaw State d. Georgia State
Kent State d. Wofford
Liberty d. Gardner-Webb
Marshall d. Middle Tennessee
MARYLAND d. Connecticut
Massachusetts d. Sacred Heart
Miami(Ohio) d. Holy Cross
MICHIGAN STATE d. Eastern Michigan
MINNESOTA d. Mississippi State
Missouri State d. Lindenwood
Navy d. Florida Atlantic
NEBRASKA d. Bowling Green
Nevada d. Montana State
New Mexico d. Mercyhurst
North Carolina d. East Tennessee State
Northern Illinois d. Illinois State
Pittsburgh d. Central Florida
PURDUE d. Wake Forest
San Jose State d. Cal Poly
SMU d. UC Davis
South Carolina d. Towson
South Florida d. Army
Syracuse d. California
TCU d. Grambling
Toledo d. Central Connecticut
Troy d. Alabama State
Tulane d. South Alabama
Tulsa d. Sam Houston
UAB d. UL Monroe
UCLA d. San Diego State
UNLV d. North Texas
UTEP d. Texas Southern
UTSA d. Texas State
Vanderbilt d. Delaware
Virginia Tech d. Old Dominion
West Virginia d. UT Martin
Western Michigan d. Monmouth
WISCONSIN d. Western Illinois
Wyoming d. Northern Colorado
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 29, 2026, 09:26:25 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/rryippL.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/oyKHMcO.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 29, 2026, 09:35:15 PM
September 13 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 30, 2026, 09:11:04 AM
WEEK TWO
Saturday, September 12
ESPN College Gameday, live from Austin, TX
#1 OHIO STATE d. #6 Texas
Hooray!  

FWIW, Ohio State's history with Texas:


This has been a fascinating series of very highly ranked teams playing very high-stakes games.  Two of the five winners won the NC that year (TX-05, tOSU-24).  All five games have been close.  
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 31, 2026, 03:56:51 PM
WEEK THREE
Thursday, September 17
Pittsburgh d. Syracuse

Friday, September 18
#2 OREGON d. Portland State
#6 Miami d. Wake Forest
#9 Texas Tech d. Houston
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on July 31, 2026, 05:27:10 PM
WEEK THREE
Saturday, September 19
ESPN College Gameday, live from College Station, TX
#7 Texas A&M d. #19 Kentucky

#1 OHIO STATE d. Kent State
#3 Notre Dame d. MICHIGAN STATE
#4 INDIANA d. Western Kentucky
#5 Georgia d. Arkansas
#8 MICHIGAN d. UTEP
#23 LSU d. #10 Ole Miss
#11 BYU d. Colorado State
#12 PENN STATE d. Buffalo
#13 USC d. RUTGERS
#14 Texas d. UTSA
North Carolina d. #15 Clemson
#16 Utah d. Utah State
#17 WASHINGTON d. Eastern Washington
#18 IOWA d. Northern Iowa
#20 Oklahoma d. New Mexico
#21 Georgia Tech d. Mercer
#22 Alabama d. Florida State
#24 Missouri d. Troy
Florida d. #25 Auburn

Arizona d. Northern Illinois
Arizona State d. Kansas
Baylor d. Louisiana Tech
Boise State d. South Dakota
Boston College d. Maine
California d. Wagner
Central Florida d. Georgia State
Central Michigan d. Wyoming
Charlotte d. Appalachian State
Cincinnati d. Miami(Ohio)
Delaware d. Coastal Carolina
Duke d. Stanford
Florida Atlantic d. FIU
Fresno State d. San Jose State
ILLINOIS d. Southern Illinois
Iowa State d. Bowling Green
Jacksonville State d. Georgia Southern
Kansas State d. Tulane
Liberty d. Ball State
Louisville d. SMU
Marshall d. Missouri State
Massachusetts d. Stone Hill
Memphis d. UT Martin
MINNESOTA d. Akron
NEBRASKA d. North Dakota
Nevada d. Middle Tennessee
NORTHWESTERN d. Colorado
Ohio d. South Alabama
Oklahoma State d. Murray State
Old Dominion d. East Carolina
Oregon State d. Montana
Sacramento State d. ND State
Sam Houston d. Nicholls
San Diego State d. James Madison
South Carolina d. Mississippi State
South Florida d. Delaware State
Southern Miss d. Connecticut
TCU d. Arkansas State
Temple d. Toledo
Tennessee d. Kennesaw State
Texas State d. North Texas
Tulsa d. East Texas A&M
UAB d. Louisiana
UCLA d. PURDUE
UL Monroe d. SE Louisiana
Vanderbilt d. NC State
Virginia d. West Virginia
Virginia Tech d. MARYLAND
Washington State d. Duquesne
Western Michigan d. Rice
WISCONSIN d. Eastern Michigan
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: GopherRock on July 31, 2026, 05:35:59 PM
And on Sunday Wisconsin beats Notre Dame, right?

RIGHT?
https://youtu.be/RV-p51fvYLc?si=DtrCXUaSYn8oc2nG
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 02, 2026, 02:42:24 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/zvQuftr.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/Gsc7j2e.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 02, 2026, 02:50:39 PM
September 20 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 03, 2026, 09:46:32 PM
WEEK FOUR
Thursday, September 24
Liberty d. Coastal Carolina

Friday, September 25
#4 INDIANA d. NORTHWESTERN
#24 Clemson d. Calfornia

Army d. Temple
Navy d. UAB
RUTGERS d. Howard
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 05, 2026, 08:47:54 PM
WEEK FOUR
Saturday, September 24
ESPN College Gameday, live from Los Angeles, CA
#2 OREGON d. #12 USC

#1 OHIO STATE d. ILLINOIS
#3 Notre Dame d. PURDUE
#5 Georgia d. #17 Oklahoma
#6 Miami d. Central Michigan
#7 Texas A&M d. #19 LSU
#16 IOWA d. #8 MICHIGAN
#9 Texas Tech d. Sam Houston
#11 PENN STATE d. WISCONSIN
Tennessee d. #13 Texas
#14 Utah d. Iowa State
#15 WASHINGTON d. MINNESOTA
#18 Georgia Tech d. Stanford
#25 Florida d. #20 Ole Miss
#21 Kentucky d. South Alabama
#22 Alabama d. South Carolina
Mississippi State d. #23 Missouri

Air Force d. Nevada
Arizona d. Washington State
Auburn d. Vanderbilt
Baylor d. Colorado
Boise State d. Western Michigan
Bowling Green d. South Florida
Buffalo d. Robert Morris
Central Florida d. TCU
Duke d. William & Mary
East Carolina d. NC Central
Eastern Michigan d. Lindenwood
FIU d. Long Island
Florida Atlantic d. UL Monroe
Florida State d. Central Arkansas
Fresno State d. Rice
Hawaii d. Wyoming
Houston d. Georgia Southern
James Madison d. Old Dominion
Kansas State d. Cincinnati
Kennesaw State d. Arkansas State
Kent State d. Ball State
Louisiana d. Charlotte
Louisville d. Wake Forest
Marshall d. Gardner-Webb
MARYLAND d. UCLA
Miami(Ohio) d. Connecticut
Middle Tennessee d. Jacksonville State
NC State d. Appalachian State
NEBRASKA d. MICHIGAN STATE
New Mexico d. NM State
North Texas d. Houston Christian
Northern Illinois d. Georgia State
Ohio d. Stonehill
Oregon State d. UTEP
Pittsburgh d. Bucknell
Sacramento State d. Massachusetts
SMU d. Missouri State
Texas State d. Incarnate Word
Toledo d. San Diego State
Troy d. Utah State
Tulane d. Southern Miss
Tulsa d. Arkansas
UNLV d. Akron
UTSA d. Colorado State
Virginia d. Delaware
Virginia Tech d. Boston College
West Virginia d. Oklahoma State
Western Kentucky d. Mercyhurst
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2026, 05:35:49 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/s4KIaEh.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/KFKuFv5.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/6RjbpEK.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2026, 06:07:16 PM
September 27 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2026, 06:24:17 PM
WEEK FIVE
Thursday, October 1
North Texas d. Tulsa
Western Kentucky d. NM State

Friday, October 2
#10 PENN STATE d. NORTHWESTERN
#24 Virginia Tech d. #25 Pittsburgh

Liberty d. Delaware
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2026, 09:16:09 PM
WEEK FIVE
Saturday, October 3
ESPN College Gameday, live from Iowa City, IA
#11 IOWA d. #1 OHIO STATE

#3 Notre Dame d. North Carolina
#4 INDIANA d. RUTGERS
#5 Georgia d. Vanderbilt
#20 Clemson d. #6 Miami
#7 Texas A&M d. Arkansas
#8 Texas Tech d. Colorado
TCU d. #9 BYU
#13 WASHINGTON d. #17 USC
#14 MICHIGAN d. MINNESOTA
#16 Florida d. Missouri
South Carolina d. #18 Kentucky
#19 Alabama d. Mississippi State
#21 NEBRASKA d. MARYLAND
Auburn d. #22 Tennessee

Arizona d. Cincinnati
Arizona State d. Baylor
Boise State d. Utah State
California d. UNLV
Central Michigan d. Akron
Eastern Michigan d. Massachusetts
Florida Atlantic d. Texas Southern
Florida State d. Virginia
Georgia Southern d. Coastal Carolina
Hawaii d. San Jose State
Houston d. Central Florida
ILLINOIS d. PURDUE
James Madison d. Marshall
Kansas d. Middle Tennessee
Louisiana d. Arkansas State
Louisiana Tech d. Army
Memphis d. Charlotte
Miami(Ohio) d. Bowling Green
Navy d. Air Force
ND State d. Wyoming
NC State d. Louisville
Ohio d. Kent State
Old Dominion d. Georgia State
Oregon State d. Colorado State
SMU d. Boston College
South Alabama d. UL Monroe
South Florida d. Temple
Syracuse d. Connecticut
Texas State d. San Diego State
Toledo d. Ball State
UAB d. Samford
UTSA d. Rice
Wake Forest d. Stanford
Washington State d. Fresno State
Western Michigan d. Buffalo
WISCONSIN d. MICHIGAN STATE
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2026, 09:25:57 PM

(https://i.imgur.com/LE3sJpT.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/iP4ixXF.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/5VrFLVx.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 06, 2026, 09:43:06 PM
October 4 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 07, 2026, 11:09:55 AM
WEEK FOUR
#16 IOWA d. #8 MICHIGAN
WEEK FIVE
Saturday, October 3
ESPN College Gameday, live from Iowa City, IA
#11 IOWA d. #1 OHIO STATE
Party like it's 1962!  Can you imagine the party they'd throw in Iowa City?  

I was curious so I looked it up, the last time Iowa beat Ohio State and Michigan in the same season was 1962 and that is the ONLY year it happened.  

Years when they beat or tied one or the other:

Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 07, 2026, 06:04:55 PM
WEEK SIX
Tuesday, October 6
Troy d. Southern Miss

Wednesday, October 7
FIU d. NM State
Jacksonville State d. Kennesaw State
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 07, 2026, 06:11:28 PM
WEEK SIX
Thursday, October 8
Arkansas State d. South Alabama
Liberty d. Sam Houston
South Florida d. UTSA
Western Kentucky d. Missouri State
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 07, 2026, 06:29:13 PM
WEEK SIX
Friday, October 9
#8 WASHINGTON d. #5 IOWA
#20 BYU d. Iowa State

Louisville d. Florida State
San Jose State d. Wyoming
Washington State d. Utah State
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 08, 2026, 04:16:36 PM
WEEK SIX
Saturday, October 10
ESPN College Gameday, live from Lincoln, NE
#3 INDIANA d. #18 NEBRASKA

#1 OREGON d. UCLA
#2 Notre Dame d. Stanford
#4 Georgia d. #17 Alabama
#6 Texas A&M d. Missouri
#25 USC d. #9 PENN STATE
#10 Utah d. Kansas
#11 OHIO STATE d. MARYLAND
#13 Georgia Tech d. Duke
#14 Florida d. #23 South Carolina
#21 Virginia Tech d. California
Houston d. #22 Kansas State

Air Force d. Northern Illinois
Akron d. Eastern Michigan
Arizona d. West Virginia
Arizona State d. Hawaii
Army d. Tulane
Boise State d. Fresno State
Bowling Green d. Sacramento State
Connecticut d. Temple
East Carolina d. Rice
ILLINOIS d. MICHIGAN STATE
James Madison d. Georgia Southern
Louisiana d. Louisiana Tech
LSU d. Kentucky
Marshall d. Coastal Carolina
Memphis d. UAB
Miami(Ohio) d. Massachusetts
MINNESOTA d. PURDUE
Navy d. Tulsa
ND State d. UNLV
North Carolina d. Pittsburgh
North Texas d. Charlotte
NORTHWESTERN d. Ball State
Ohio d. Central Michigan
Oklahoma State d. Central Florida
Old Dominion d. Appalachian State
Ole Miss d. Vanderbilt
Oregon State d. San Diego State
Tennessee d. Arkansas
Texas d. Oklahoma
Toledo d. Buffalo
UTEP d. Nevada
Virginia d. Syracuse
Wake Forest d. NC State
Western Michigan d. Kent State
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 08, 2026, 04:33:01 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/6PF7lda.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/TW02uFA.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/rFvL0In.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 08, 2026, 05:01:18 PM
October 11 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2026, 03:35:34 PM
WEEK SEVEN
Tuesday, October 13
Delaware d. Middle Tennessee
Jacksonville State d. FIU
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2026, 03:43:40 PM
WEEK SEVEN
Wednesday, October 14
Kennesaw State d. Missouri State
Sam Houston d. Western Kentucky
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2026, 03:52:52 PM
WEEK SEVEN
Thursday, October 15
East Carolina d. UAB
Old Dominion d. Georgia Southern
Texas State d. Colorado State
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2026, 04:00:11 PM
WEEK SEVEN
Friday, October 16
PURDUE d. #6 WASHINGTON

Appalachian State d. Coastal Carolina
Tulane d. Memphis
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2026, 05:46:58 PM
WEEK SEVEN
Friday, October 16
ESPN College Gameday, live from Bloomington, IN
#3 INDIANA d. #10 OHIO STATE

#1 OREGON d. #24 NEBRASKA
#18 BYU d. #2 Notre Dame
#4 Georgia d. #21 Auburn
#5 Texas A&M d. The Citadel
#7 Texas Tech d. Arizona State
Colorado d. #8 Utah
#11 MICHIGAN d. #16 PENN STATE
#19 Virginia Tech d. #12 Georgia Tech
Texas d. #13 Florida
#14 Clemson d. Charleston Southern
#15 Miami d. Florida State
#17 TCU d. Baylor
#22 Houston d. Oklahoma State
Tennessee d. #23 Alabama
#25 Kansas State d. Kansas

Air Force d. UNLV
Boston College d. Pittsburgh
Bowling Green d. Ball State
Buffalo d. Massachusetts
California d. Wake Forest
Cincinnati d. West Virginia
Florida Atlantic d. Army
Hawaii d. New Mexico
James Madison d. Georgia State
Louisiana d. Troy
Louisiana Tech d. UL Monroe
Louisville d. Syracuse
LSU d. Mississippi State
MARYLAND d. RUTGERS
Miami(Ohio) d. Akron
MICHIGAN STATE d. NORTHWESTERN
ND State d. Nevada
North Carolina d. Duke
Ohio d. Sacramento State
Oklahoma d. Kentucky
Ole Miss d. Missouri
Oregon State d. Washington State
Rice d. Tulsa
San Diego State d. Fresno State
San Jose State d. UTEP
SMU d. Virginia
South Florida d. Kent State
Southern Miss d. Arkansas State
Stanford d. Elon
Temple d. Charlotte
Toledo d. Eastern Michigan
UTSA d. Navy
Vanderbilt d. Arkansas
Western Michigan d. Central Michigan
WISCONSIN d. UCLA
Wyoming d. Northern Illinois
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2026, 05:54:09 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/GVrnBIA.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/2lVGinf.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/IsEYlxI.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2026, 06:27:30 PM
October 18 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2026, 06:35:52 PM
WEEK EIGHT
Tuesday, October 20
Delaware d. Missouri State
Marshall d. South Alabama
Middle Tennessee d. FIU
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2026, 06:44:38 PM
WEEK EIGHT
Wednesday, October 21
NM State d. Sam Houston

Thursday, October 22
East Carolina d. Memphis
James Madison d. Appalachian State
Kennesaw State d. Liberty
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 09, 2026, 07:01:23 PM
WEEK EIGHT
Friday, October 23
Air Force d. Wyoming
Connecticut d. Massachusetts
Stanford d. NC State
Tulsa d. Army
Virginia d. Duke
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 10, 2026, 08:04:47 AM
We might be in the LA area at the time UW plays out there. Maybe we can help boost the UCLA attendance by 50 percent.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 10, 2026, 08:45:32 PM
WEEK EIGHT
Saturday, October 24
ESPN College Gameday, live from Ann Arbor, MI
#2 INDIANA d. #7 MICHIGAN

#1 OREGON d. #25 ILLINOIS
#4 Texas A&M d. Alabama
#5 Texas Tech d. Cincinnati
#6 IOWA d. MINNESOTA
#8 BYU d. Central Florida
#12 Clemson d. #10 Virginia Tech
#13 Miami d. Pittsburgh
West Virginia d. #14 TCU
#15 USC d. WISCONSIN
#17 Houston d. #16 Utah
Arizona State d. #18 Kansas State
#20 Georgia Tech d. Boston College
#23 Texas d. Ole Miss
#24 Tennessee d. South Carolina

Arizona d. Iowa State
Arkansas State d. Georgia State
Boise State d. Washington State
Central Michigan d. Miami(Ohio)
Colorado d. Oklahoma State
Colorado State d. San Diego State
Florida Atlantic d. Rice
Hawaii d. Northern Illinois
Kansas d. Baylor
Kent State d. Akron
Kentucky d. Vanderbilt
Louisiana d. Southern Miss
LSU d. Auburn
Navy d. North Texas
Nevada d. San Jose State
New Mexico d. ND State
North Carolina d. Syracuse
NORTHWESTERN d. RUTGERS
Ohio d. Eastern Michigan
Oklahoma d. Mississippi State
Old Dominion d. Louisiana Tech
Sacramento State d. Ball State
SMU d. California
Texas State d. Utah State
Toledo d. Western Michigan
Troy d. UL Monroe
UCLA d. MICHIGAN STATE
UTSA d. Tulane
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 08:56:03 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/qkpfuKb.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/VHgDm7K.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/xw1rgos.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 09:40:49 AM
October 25 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 12:25:45 PM
WEEK NINE
Tuesday, October 27
Sam Houston d. Missouri State
Western Kentucky d. Delaware
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 12:29:49 PM
WEEK NINE
Wednesday, October 28
Jacksonville State d. NM State
Kennesaw State d. Middle Tennessee
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 12:33:09 PM
WEEK NINE
Thursday, October 29
Florida Atlantic d. North Texas
Troy d. James Madison
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 12:39:17 PM
WEEK NINE
Friday, October 30
Central Florida d. Baylor
Sacramento State d. Kent State
Tulane d. Charlotte
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 02:55:03 PM
Halloween feels like a perfect Saturday for a BLOOD WEEK!!!

WEEK NINE
HALLOWEEN
ESPN College Gameday, live from Jacksonville, FL
#3 Georgia d. #18 Florida

#1 OREGON d. NORTHWESTERN
#2 INDIANA d. MINNESOTA
#5 Texas Tech d. Arizona
WISCONSIN d. #6 IOWA
#24 Arizona State d. #7 BYU
#8 Notre Dame d. Navy
NEBRASKA d. #9 WASHINGTON
Florida State d. #10 Clemson
#11 Miami d. North Carolina
RUTGERS d. #13 MICHIGAN
#14 USC d. #15 OHIO STATE
Pittsburgh d. #17 Georgia Tech
#19 PENN STATE d. PURDUE
#20 Texas d. Mississippi State
#22 TCU d. Kansas
#23 Utah d. Cincinnati
Colorado d. #25 Kansas State

Air Force d. Connecticut
Appalachian State d. Georgia Southern
Arkansas d. Missouri
Boise State d. Texas State
Duke d. Boston College
East Carolina d. Temple
Fresno State d. Oregon State
Georgia State d. Coastal Carolina
ILLINOIS d. MARYLAND
Iowa State d. Oklahoma State
Liberty d. FIU
Louisiana Tech d. South Alabama
Louisville d. Stanford
Marshall d. Old Dominion
Memphis d. Army
NC State d. California
ND State d. UTEP
New Mexico d. San Jose State
Oklahoma d. South Carolina
Ole Miss d. Auburn
San Diego State d. Washington State
SMU d. Syracuse
South Florida d. UAB
Southern Miss d. UL Monroe
UCLA d. Nevada
UNLV d. Northern Illinois
Utah State d. Colorado State
Virginia d. Wake Forest
Western Michigan d. Bowling Green
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 03:00:18 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/FgX7dcX.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/I9vpHaI.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/ckpdd9p.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2026, 03:12:44 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/R422S3e.png)

obviously, this would be HUGE!
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 03:17:47 PM
November 1 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Wildcat4E on August 11, 2026, 03:20:30 PM
Congrats, FF.

But this was my favorite so far, #18 consecutively

#25 Kansas State d. Kansas
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 11, 2026, 03:54:20 PM
Halloween feels like a perfect Saturday for a BLOOD WEEK!!!
The following week could be as bad or worse:  https://www.elevenwarriors.com/college-football/2026/05/162525/November-7-might-break-college-football
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 11, 2026, 04:06:07 PM
November 1 Poll
  • OREGON (8-0) 1
  • INDIANA (9-0) 2
  • Georgia (8-0) 3
  • Texas A&M (8-0) 4
  • Texas Tech (8-0) 5
  • Notre Dame (7-1) 8
  • Miami (7-1) 11
  • Houston (7-1) 12
  • USC (7-2) 14
  • Virginia Tech (7-1) 16
  • PENN STATE (6-2) 19
  • Texas (6-2) 20
  • Tennessee (6-2) 21
  • IOWA (6-2) 6
  • Arizona State (6-2) 24
  • BYU (6-2) 7
  • NEBRASKA (6-2) -
  • WASHINGTON (6-2) 9
  • Clemson (6-2) 10
  • TCU (6-2) 22
  • Utah (6-2) 23
  • Florida (6-2) 18
  • Georgia Tech (6-2) 17
  • LSU (5-2) -
  • WISCONSIN (5-3) -
I note Ohio State's absence.  That would be a big deal.  The Buckeyes haven't been left out of an AP Top-25 since September 20, 2020 and that was only because they were ineligible due to the B1G not restarting football yet.  They haven't been left out of an AP Top-25 poll that they were eligible for since the final poll of 2011.  In that stretch (2012-2025) appearances:

Just curious, what is your assumption/criteria for excluding the Buckeyes.  Per your projections and your projected poll the Buckeyes would have three losses but those are:
They would also have a road win over #12 Texas.  Four road games against top-14 teams is brutal and frankly going 1-3 in those isn't all that bad.  
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 11, 2026, 04:26:07 PM
While I was looking up the information for my previous post I noticed that Alabama was out as well.  If Alabama and Ohio State are BOTH unranked in the 11/1/2026 Poll as projected here by @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) it will be a very unusual poll to include neither of those two.  FWIW the last AP CFB Poll to include neither Ohio State nor Alabama was the 10/31/2004 Poll.  USC was #1.  

Anyway, I know that this projection will make @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) happy.  At present Alabama's steak stands at 295 straight weeks in the poll.  The Tide have been ranked in every poll since being #24 in the 2008 Preseason poll.  This is the second longest streak of all time and by FAR the longest active streak.  Nebraska has the all-time longest streak of 348 straight appearances from 1981-2002 and the Tide are currently 53 weeks from catching the Cornhuskers.  

Per the projections:


Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 11, 2026, 05:17:02 PM
November 1 Poll
  • OREGON (8-0) 1
  • INDIANA (9-0) 2
  • Georgia (8-0) 3
  • Texas A&M (8-0) 4
  • Texas Tech (8-0) 5
  • Notre Dame (7-1) 8
  • Miami (7-1) 11
  • Houston (7-1) 12
  • USC (7-2) 14
  • Virginia Tech (7-1) 16
  • PENN STATE (6-2) 19
  • Texas (6-2) 20
  • Tennessee (6-2) 21
  • IOWA (6-2) 6
  • Arizona State (6-2) 24
  • BYU (6-2) 7
  • NEBRASKA (6-2) -
  • WASHINGTON (6-2) 9
  • Clemson (6-2) 10
  • TCU (6-2) 22
  • Utah (6-2) 23
  • Florida (6-2) 18
  • Georgia Tech (6-2) 17
  • LSU (5-2) -
  • WISCONSIN (5-3) -
Upon further review, this would be even more unusual.  The four most frequently ranked teams (#4 is actually a tie for 4th/5th) are:
Note that NONE of those four are included above.  Ohio State and Michigan are both projected to be 5-3/2-3 so they'd be borderline as would Oklahoma 5-3/3-2 but Alabama 4-4/2-4 wouldn't be all that close. 

The last time there was an AP CFB Poll in which none of those four teams were ranked was October 30, 1967.  Bama had been ranked earlier in the season and would get back in.  Oklahoma would get ranked a week later.  1967 was during the AP's seven year experiment of only ranking 10 teams (1961-1967) which is why none of these teams were ranked.  The teams ranked in that poll were USC, UCLA, TN, NCST, UGA, Purdue, Indiana, Wyoming, Colorado, Notre Dame, and Houston.  One week earlier on 10/23/1967 Notre Dame was also unranked so the top-5 most frequently ranked teams were all unranked on 10/23/1967. 

This is just my work to figure it out:

Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 05:52:08 PM
I note Ohio State's absence.  That would be a big deal.  The Buckeyes haven't been left out of an AP Top-25 since September 20, 2020 and that was only because they were ineligible due to the B1G not restarting football yet.  They haven't been left out of an AP Top-25 poll that they were eligible for since the final poll of 2011.  In that stretch (2012-2025) appearances:
  • 230 Alabama 100%
  • 228 Ohio State 99.1% (only out of the 9/13/2020 and 9/20/2020 polls due to covid inactivation)
  • 203 Georgia 88.3%
  • 202 Oklahoma 87.8%
  • 192 Notre Dame 83.5%
  • 191 Clemson 83%
  • 182 Oregon 79.1%
  • 171 LSU 74.3%
  • 169 Michigan 73.5%
  • 138 aTm 60%

Just curious, what is your assumption/criteria for excluding the Buckeyes.  Per your projections and your projected poll the Buckeyes would have three losses but those are:
  • AT #2 Indiana
  • AT #9 USC
  • AT #14 Iowa
They would also have a road win over #12 Texas.  Four road games against top-14 teams is brutal and frankly going 1-3 in those isn't all that bad. 

Yeah, I think the problem is I dropped OSU out, and then was looking for replacements, and Wisconsin was the only B1G/SEC team with 3 losses and a big win that week.  But I think OSU probably would have just stayed in in actuality
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 06:45:26 PM
WEEK TEN
Tuesday, November 3
Miami(Ohio) d. Buffalo
Ohio d. Akron
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 06:49:11 PM
WEEK TEN
Wednesday, November 4
Central Michigan d. Eastern Michigan
Massachusetts d. Ball State
Sacramento State d. Toledo
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 06:52:06 PM
WEEK TEN
Thursday, November 5
James Madison d. Southern Miss
UTSA d. Florida Atlantic
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 11, 2026, 07:03:03 PM
WEEK TEN
Friday, September 6
SMU d. #10 Virginia Tech
ILLINOIS d. #17 NEBRASKA
Arizona d. #20 TCU

East Carolina d. South Florida
Nevada d. New Mexico
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 11, 2026, 08:41:59 PM
damn it, Boy!!!
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 12, 2026, 11:29:11 AM
Yeah, I think the problem is I dropped OSU out, and then was looking for replacements, and Wisconsin was the only B1G/SEC team with 3 losses and a big win that week.  But I think OSU probably would have just stayed in in actuality
That is fair, thanks for answering.  Voters do strange things and use different criteria so who knows what they'd do.  If recency bias is strong then Wisconsin is ahead of Ohio State based on Wisconsin just getting a top-10 win while Ohio State just took a loss but if you look at the whole schedule then Ohio State is ahead.  It would be a fairly close call.  
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 12, 2026, 11:30:11 AM
I think the helmet wins out.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 12, 2026, 05:00:29 PM
WEEK TEN
Saturday, November 7
ESPN College Gameday, live from South Bend, IN
#7 Miami d. #6 Notre Dame

#1 OREGON d. OHIO STATE
#3 Georgia d. Ole Miss
South Carolina d. #4 Texas A&M
#5 Texas Tech d. West Virginia
#8 Houston d. Cincinnati
#11 PENN STATE d. #18 WASHINGTON
#12 Texas d. Missouri
#13 Tennessee d. Kentucky
NORTHWESTERN d. #14 IOWA
#15 Arizona State d. Colorado
#16 BYU d. #21 Utah
#19 Clemson d. Syracuse
#22 Florida d. Oklahoma
#23 Georgia Tech d. Louisville
Alabama d. #24 LSU
RUTGERS d. #25 WISCONSIN

Appalachian State d. Georgia State
Arkansas State d. UL Monroe
Army d. Air Force
Auburn d. Arkansas
Baylor d. Iowa State
Boise State d. Colorado State
Boston College d. Florida State
Delaware d. Kennesaw State
FIU d. Missouri State
Georgia Southern d. Marshall
Hawaii d. UTEP
Jacksonville State d. Sam Houston
Kansas d. Central Florida
Kansas State d. Oklahoma State
Liberty d. NM State
Louisiana d. South Alabama
MARYLAND d. PURDUE
MICHIGAN d. MICHIGAN STATE
Middle Tennessee d. Western Kentucky
NC State d. Duke
North Carolina d. Connecticut
North Texas d. Rice
Old Dominion d. Coastal Carolina
San Jose State d. Northern Illinois
Temple d. Navy
Texas State d. Oregon State
Troy d. Louisiana Tech
Tulsa d. Tulane
UAB d. Charlotte
UCLA d. MINNESOTA
UNLV d. Wyoming
Utah State d. Fresno State
Vanderbilt d. Mississippi State
Wake Forest d. Merrimack
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 12, 2026, 05:01:50 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/K8B5JHR.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/W0H1gvL.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/N4EysqF.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 12, 2026, 05:13:19 PM
November 8 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 13, 2026, 09:36:29 AM
WEEK ELEVEN
Tuesday, November 10
Kent State d. Bowling Green
Miami(Ohio) d. Ohio
Western Michigan d. Akron

Wednesday, November 11
Ball State d. Buffalo
Sacramento State d. Central Michigan
Toledo d. Massachusetts
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 13, 2026, 11:22:41 AM
WEEK ELEVEN
Thursday, November 12
Louisiana d. UL Monroe
South Florida d. Memphis

Friday, November 13
#6 Houston d. Colorado
UCLA d. #21 ILLINOIS

Florida State d. Pittsburgh
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 13, 2026, 02:48:46 PM
WEEK ELEVEN
Saturday, November 14
ESPN College Gameday, live from Bloomington, IN
#2 INDIANA d. #7 USC

#1 OREGON d. MICHIGAN
#3 Georgia d. Missouri
#4 Texas Tech d. Oklahoma State
#5 Miami d. Duke
#8 PENN STATE d. MINNESOTA
#9 Texas A&M d. #11 Tennessee
#10 Texas d. LSU
#12 Notre Dame d. Boston College
#13 Arizona State d. Central Florida
#14 BYU d. Baylor
#18 Georgia Tech d. #15 Clemson
#16 Virginia Tech d. Stanford
#17 Florida d. Kentucky
#19 IOWA d. PURDUE
#20 SMU d. Wake Forest
#22 WASHINGTON d. MICHIGAN STATE
RUTGERS d. #23 NEBRASKA
Utah d. #24 Arizona
#25 TCU d. Kansas State

Air Force d. San Jose State
Arkansas State d. Coastal Carolina
Boise State d. Oregon State
Connecticut d. James Madison
Delaware d. FIU
East Carolina d. Charlotte
Florida Atlantic d. Tulsa
Hawaii d. ND State
Iowa State d. Cincinnati
Jacksonville State d. Western Kentucky
Kansas d. West Virginia
Kennesaw State d. Sam Houston
Liberty d. Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech d. Southern Miss
Louisville d. North Carolina
Marshall d. Appalachian State
MARYLAND d. WISCONSIN
Missouri State d. NM State
Mississippi State d. Auburn
NC State d. Syracuse
New Mexico d. UNLV
Northern Illinois d. Nevada
OHIO STATE d. NORTHWESTERN
Ole Miss d. Oklahoma
South Carolina d. Arkansas
Temple d. UAB
Texas State d. Fresno State
Troy d. South Alabama
Tulane d. Rice
Utah State d. San Diego State
UTEP d. Wyoming
UTSA d. North Texas
Virginia d. California
Washington State d. Colorado State
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 13, 2026, 02:59:42 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Kfl0JkH.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/mlp0CvV.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/flvYpK6.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 13, 2026, 03:20:36 PM
November 15 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 13, 2026, 03:22:36 PM
Gers!
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 13, 2026, 05:43:40 PM
WEEK TWELVE
Tuesday, November 17
Miami(Ohio) d. Kent State
Ohio d. Ball State
Western Michigan d. Eastern Michigan
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 13, 2026, 05:46:22 PM
WEEK TWELVE
Wednesday, November 18
Akron d. Massachusetts
Buffalo d. Central Michigan
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 13, 2026, 05:58:57 PM
WEEK TWELVE
Thursday, November 19
Temple d. Rice

Friday, November 20
#1 OREGON d. MICHIGAN STATE
Duke d. #25 Clemson

Air Force d. UTEP
Central Florida d. Iowa State
Toledo d. Bowling Green
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 14, 2026, 03:43:30 PM
WEEK TWELVE
Saturday, November 21
ESPN College Gameday, live from Miami, FL
#5 Miami d. #13 Virginia Tech

#2 INDIANA d. #20 WASHINGTON
#3 Georgia d. South Carolina
#4 Texas Tech d. Baylor
#6 Houston d. West Virginia
Oklahoma d. #7 Texas A&M
#8 PENN STATE d. RUTGERS
#9 Texas d. Arkansas
#10 Notre Dame d. #19 SMU
#11 Arizona State d. Oklahoma State
#12 BYU d. Kansas
#14 Florida d. Vanderbilt
#15 Georgia Tech d. Wake Forest
#16 USC d. MARYLAND
#17 Tennessee d. LSU
#18 IOWA d. ILLINOIS
#24 Utah d. #21 TCU
#22 Virginia d. North Carolina
#23 Boise State d. San Diego State

Alabama d. Chattanooga
Appalachian State d. UL Monroe
Army d. East Carolina
Auburn d. Samford
California d. Stanford
Coastal Carolina d. Louisiana
Colorado d. Cincinnati
Connecticut d. Old Dominion
Delaware d. NM State
FIU d. Kennesaw State
Florida State d. NC State
Fresno State d. Colorado State
Hawaii d. Nevada
Kansas State d. Arizona
Louisiana Tech d. Arkansas State
Marshall d. Georgia State
MICHIGAN d. UCLA
MINNESOTA d. NORTHWESTERN
Mississippi State d. Tennessee Tech
Missouri d. Kentucky
Missouri State d. Jacksonville State
Navy d. Memphis
ND State d. Northern Illinois
New Mexico d. Wyoming
North Texas d. Tulane
OHIO STATE d. NEBRASKA
Ole Miss d. Wofford
Pittsburgh d. Louisville
Sam Houston d. Middle Tennessee
South Florida d. Florida Atlantic
Syracuse d. Boston College
Troy d. Georgia Southern
Tulsa d. Charlotte
UNLV d. San Jose State
Utah State d. Oregon State
UTSA d. UAB
Washington State d. Texas State
Western Kentucky d. Liberty
WISCONSIN d. PURDUE
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 14, 2026, 03:55:20 PM
damn
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 14, 2026, 04:28:54 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/tTBFTaF.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/6OGIFlp.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/mafGZHv.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 14, 2026, 04:45:51 PM
I don't know whether to be depressed that even in a completely made up and imaginary season simulation, my team still sucks...

...or happy that somehow this completely made up and imaginary season simulation found two wins that I have no reason to hope will actually happen?
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 14, 2026, 04:58:52 PM
November 22 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 14, 2026, 05:14:54 PM
This simulation has Ohio State and Michigan both unranked and tied at 4-4 in the league and 7-7 overall heading into The Game.  

It has been a long time since there has been an Ohio State/Michigan game with no ranked teams involved.  FWIW even in this simulation the winner would likely move into the rankings at 5-4/8-4.  

This simulation illustrates what has me concerned about Ohio State's schedule.  Per this simulation Ohio State heads into The Game at 4-4/7-4 with losses:

None of those are bad losses and they also have a road win over #8 Texas.  My concern is that a borderline top-10 team could end up 8-4 or even 7-5 with this schedule.  
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 14, 2026, 05:17:57 PM
Well heck, try being the team that lost to your 7-4 suckbutt team in week 2.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 14, 2026, 05:21:56 PM
Kinda funny that UGA has only one win against a ranked team.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 14, 2026, 05:24:37 PM
The CG in the B1G would already be clinched as Indiana and Oregon are two games ahead of #3 Penn State.  However there are some convoluted scenarios in the other P4 leagues:

SEC:
Georgia is 9-0 and their conference slate is complete so they are locked in but the other spot . . .

Texas has control of their own destiny at 7-1 but if they lose to aTm then the Longhorns and Aggies would both finish 7-2.  Florida, like Georgia, has already completed their conference slate and the Gators are 7-2 so if aTm beats Texas then the Gators would join the two Texas teams in a tie for the second SECCG slot.  Additionally, Tennessee is 6-2 so there is a potential 4-way tie for the second spot in the SECCG.  

In the ACC Miami and SMU are each 7-1 so they control their own destiny but if either or both of them were to lose and finish 7-2 they could be caught by either GaTech or Virginia or both so there is a potential 4-way tie for the two spots in the ACCCG.  

In the B12 Texas Tech is 8-0 so they control their own destiny and may have already clinched depending on tiebreakers.  Behind them Houston and ASU are tied at 7-1 with BYU a game behind them at 6-2 so all four of those teams are in the mix.  
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 14, 2026, 05:27:42 PM
Well heck, trying being the team that lost to your 7-4 suckbutt team in week 2.
In the 12-team playoff era, who cares?  

In the old (ya know, a few years ago) days the loss to an unranked team in week-2 would be a big deal because Texas would have no chance of making a BCSCG and only a faint chance of making a 4-team CFP but in the 12-team era, Texas would have a plausible chance to make it even at 9-3 with a loss to aTm and would obviously be in with a win over their rivals.  
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 14, 2026, 05:32:37 PM
In the 12-team playoff era, who cares? 

In the old (ya know, a few years ago) days the loss to an unranked team in week-2 would be a big deal because Texas would have no chance of making a BCSCG and only a faint chance of making a 4-team CFP but in the 12-team era, Texas would have a plausible chance to make it even at 9-3 with a loss to aTm and would obviously be in with a win over their rivals. 
We already know 3-loss Texas with a loss to an unranked team doesn't get in, even with wins over 2 tournament teams and 3 in the top 15 selection committee rankings.

Now, the upcoming 24-team tourney, is a whole different matter.  (hurl)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 14, 2026, 05:35:19 PM
I'd prefer playing Texas in the SEC CG ....
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: utee94 on August 14, 2026, 05:35:51 PM
I'd prefer playing Texas in the SEC CG ....
No thanks.  No Georgia ever, thanks in advance.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 15, 2026, 04:22:15 PM
WEEK THIRTEEN
Tuesday, November 24
Kent State d. Eastern Michigan
Miami(Ohio) d. Western Michigan

THANKSGIVING
#4 Texas Tech d. TCU
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 15, 2026, 04:36:09 PM
WEEK THIRTEEN
Friday, November 27
#8 Texas d. #13 Texas A&M
#12 Florida d. Florida State
#17 IOWA d. NEBRASKA
#18 Utah d. West Virginia
Tulane d. #23 South Florida

Buffalo d. Akron
Florida Atlantic d. East Carolina
Memphis d. Temple
Ole Miss d. Mississippi State
San Jose State d. ND State
South Alabama d. Appalachian State
Toledo d. Ohio
WISCONSIN d. MINNESOTA
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 16, 2026, 08:28:41 AM
at 6-6, Rhule is on the hot seat for next season
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2026, 11:54:06 AM
WEEK THIRTEEN
Saturday, November 28
ESPN College Gameday, live from Athens, GA
#3 Georgia d. #14 Georgia Tech

#1 OREGON d. WASHINGTON
#2 INDIANA d. PURDUE
#5 Miami d. Boston College
#6 Houston d. Baylor
MARYLAND d. #7 PENN STATE
#9 Notre Dame d. Syracuse
Arizona d. #10 Arizona State
#11 BYU d. Cincinnati
#15 USC d. UCLA
#16 Tennessee d. Vanderbilt
#21 Virginia Tech d. #19 Virginia
#20 Boise State d. Utah State
#22 SMU d. Stanford
New Mexico d. #24 Air Force
#25 UTSA d. Tulsa

Alabama d. Auburn
Arkansas d. LSU
Bowling Green d. Massachusetts
California d. Pittsburgh
Central Michigan d. Ball State
Coastal Carolina d. James Madison
Colorado d. Central Florida
Colorado State d. Texas State
Connecticut d. Wyoming
Duke d. Wake Forest
FIU d. Sam Houston
Hawaii d. Sacramento State
Jacksonville State d. Delaware
Kansas d. Oklahoma State
Kansas State d. Iowa State
Louisiana d. Georgia State
Louisiana Tech d. Georgia Southern
Louisville d. Kentucky
Marshall d. UL Monroe
MICHIGAN STATE d. RUTGERS
Middle Tennessee d. NM State
Missouri State d. Liberty
Navy d. Army
North Carolina d. NC State
North Texas d. UAB
Northern Illinois d. UTEP
NORTHWESTERN d. ILLINOIS
OHIO STATE d. MICHIGAN
Old Dominion d. Southern Miss
Oklahoma d. Missouri
Rice d. Army
San Diego State d. Fresno State
South Carolina d. Clemson
Troy d. Arkansas State
UNLV d. Nevada
Washington State d. Oregon State
Western Kentucky d. Kennesaw State
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2026, 12:00:12 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/ET48786.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/jmoSlBS.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/mOHw7Gq.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2026, 12:19:34 PM
November 29 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2026, 07:41:02 PM
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK SCHEDULE
Friday, December 4
#4 Texas Tech vs. #6 Houston
Texas State at #19 Boise State
Air Force at #24 Hawaii

James Madison at Louisiana
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State

Saturday, December 5
#1 INDIANA vs. #2 OREGON
#3 Georgia vs. #7 Texas
#5 Miami vs. #21 SMU
South Florida at #22 UTSA

Miami(Ohio) vs. Toledo
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2026, 07:57:47 PM
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK
Friday, December 4
#6 Houston d. #4 Texas Tech
#19 Boise State d. Texas State
#24 Hawaii d. Air Force

James Madison d. Louisiana
Western Kentucky d. Jacksonville State
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2026, 08:10:44 PM
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK
Saturday, December 5
ESPN College Gameday, live from Indianapolis, IN
#2 INDIANA d. #1 OREGON

#3 Georgia d. #7 Texas
#5 Miami d. #21 SMU
#22 UTSA d. South Florida

Miami(Ohio) d. Toledo
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2026, 08:12:37 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/oGC7oU9.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/Xtoj7rO.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/dFqjB1y.png)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2026, 10:21:07 PM
December 6 Poll
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2026, 10:23:30 PM
#19 Boise State at #5 Houston; winner vs. #4 Miami
#11 USC at #6 Texas Tech; winner vs. #3 Oregon
#10 Florida at #7 Notre Dame; winner vs. #2 Georgia
#9 BYU at #8 Texas; winner vs. #1 Indiana

Easily the best first round we've had in 3 years
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2026, 07:39:55 AM
Why does the simulation hate M and OSU so much this season?

(not that I'm shedding any tears)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2026, 07:41:13 AM
I'd take it, but if they lose in the first round again, Kirby will be fired ...
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: MikeDeTiger on August 17, 2026, 09:52:10 AM
According to this, Kiffin will be run off after one season.  

I'm okay with that.  

From ELA's simulated lips to God's ears.  
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2026, 10:25:17 AM
Why does the simulation hate M and OSU so much this season?
It kinda hates on the SEC also.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 17, 2026, 03:26:05 PM
Why does the simulation hate M and OSU so much this season?

(not that I'm shedding any tears)
I think a lot of it, in both cases, is SoS.  

In @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's simulation the Buckeyes end up 8-4 and unranked heading into the bowls but note that the losses are (from ELA's simulated pre-bowl rankings):
In this simulation the Buckeyes also have a road win over #8 Texas.  Per this simulation the Buckeyes played FIVE games against top-13 teams with four of those five on the road.  That is brutal.  

Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 17, 2026, 03:31:56 PM
I think a lot of it, in both cases, is SoS. 

In @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's simulation the Buckeyes end up 8-4 and unranked heading into the bowls but note that the losses are (from ELA's simulated pre-bowl rankings):
  • AT #1 Indiana
  • vs #3 Oregon
  • AT #11 USC
  • AT #13 Iowa
In this simulation the Buckeyes also have a road win over #8 Texas.  Per this simulation the Buckeyes played FIVE games against top-13 teams with four of those five on the road.  That is brutal. 


OSU has the highest payroll in CFB. Brutal or otherwise, they should win every game.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 17, 2026, 03:42:19 PM
I think a lot of it, in both cases, is SoS. 
A closer look at the in-conference portion of the schedule for Ohio State in this simulation:

Per the simulation, as I see it, the conference breaks down into three groups:
Teams that finished above 5-4:
Teams that finished roughly .500 (5-4 or 4-5):
Teams that finished below 4-5:

Then look at which teams the Buckeyes play:
Teams above 5-4:
Teams roughly .500:
Teams below 4-5:


It appears to me that the league is trying to maximize their TV ratings by having the projected good teams more-or-less all play each other.  The upside of that is of course the $$$$ that flow from the TV contract but the downside is that somebody has to lose each of those games.  Ohio State ends up 5-4 despite being perfect against teams that finished 5-4 or worse and perfect at home against teams that finished worse than 9-0.  
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 17, 2026, 03:48:21 PM
OSU has the highest payroll in CFB. Brutal or otherwise, they should win every game.
First, I don't think they have the highest but they are in the highest tier no doubt.  

Second, we both know that teams rarely win every game that they *should* win.  The issue here, IMHO, is that within the category of games that a team "should win" there are some that are near-locks where it would take a terrible performance to lose and others that are nearly even.  Looking at the simulation, Ohio State has a home loss to Oregon which spends at tOSU's level.  Then they have road losses to IU, USC, and Iowa.  Even if Ohio State "should" win those, I see them as something like 60/40 affairs, not like a 95/5 early season tune-up.  
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 17, 2026, 04:16:09 PM
Yup, I see those 60-40 games as near tossups obviously, that would suggest a 4-5 point spread.  Two of those means a likely loss.

Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2026, 08:19:00 PM
WEEK FIFTEEN
Saturday, December 12
ESPN College Gameday, live from East Rutherford, NJ
Navy d. Army
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 18, 2026, 09:19:21 PM
OSU has the highest payroll in CFB. Brutal or otherwise, they should win every game.
That’s a bit of a lazy take for you Badge. 

I hate that this conversation about CFB payroll even exist and that that’s where we are right now.

The team with the highest payroll has never won every game or the national championship, or really come super close.

I’m pretty confident, Ohio Ohio State does not have the highest pay payroll, but they are up in the top few.  what’s interesting with these schools is their “philosophy” I’m how they’ll spend the money.

Ohio State has lost a lot of five star recruits too much higher bitters because they generally don’t want to spend their money on improving talent. They spend a lot of money on people who are already in the program and have produced.

Of course there are exceptions to that but they’re very rare.

but again, don’t hate the player, hate the game.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2026, 07:59:54 AM
If Cignetti was the OSU coach, they would win every game they play.

Of course, in my mind he is the only truly elite coach still standing.

Smart and Dabo are falling off, now that the $$$ is above the table. Saban was smart to bail.

All of the other guys making the big bucks are pretenders, in my view.

How would Day do at MSU? How would Sark do at Arkansas? How would Riley do at UCLA?

How would any of them do at Indiana?
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 19, 2026, 08:07:17 AM
If Cignetti was the OSU coach, they would win every game they play.

Of course, in my mind he is the only truly elite coach still standing.

Smart and Dabo are falling off, now that the $$$ is above the table. Saban was smart to bail.

All of the other guys making the big bucks are pretenders, in my view.

How would Day do at MSU? How would Sark do at Arkansas? How would Riley do at UCLA?

How would any of them do at Indiana?
Cignetti has gone against Day twice.  He got blown out the first time, and won by the skin of his teeth the second time when OSU missed a FG shorter than an extra point.

They square off again this year at Indiana- so we will see how it goes. 

How would Day do at MSU?  Well, certainly he wouldn’t win 95% of his games like he’s doing now. But he would build a winning culture or the players, the players families, and the school administration are all aligned. 
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2026, 08:12:47 AM
Teh point is Cignetti is doing what he's doing at Indiana.

F'ing Indiana. Think about that.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 19, 2026, 08:14:53 AM
Teh point is Cignetti is doing what he's doing at Indiana.

F'ing Indiana. Think about that.
It is mind blowingly impressive.   No doubt. And he is not a one trick pony.  They will be a beast again this season.  
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2026, 08:49:42 AM
I don't think Smart is falling off, in any sense, unless you mean he hasn't won an NC in four years....  

Maybe he peaked for two years and now is back to normal, top 10 finishes.  No team seems likely to be as dominant as some preNIL.  It might happen on occasion by luck.

To be fair, I've never been one to claim Smart is a generational coach, I think he's very good obviously in most areas.  Their recruiting rankings this year seem to have dropped off, if that matters.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 19, 2026, 09:27:26 AM
How would any of them do at Indiana?
with Cuban's $$$??
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2026, 09:29:19 AM
I think often coaches get "ranked" based on how well their teams do without consideration of how strong the programs were when they got there.

I don't much like rankings based on impressions.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 19, 2026, 09:34:38 AM
with Cuban's $$$??
It's not nearly comparable to what OSU, fUO, UT, aTm and some others get.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Honestbuckeye on August 19, 2026, 10:52:27 AM
https://apple.news/AfmoDCo0DTJS6ho-ufmWSOA


Ranking College Football’s Most Expensive Rosters
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 19, 2026, 01:28:50 PM

DECEMBER 15.
VETERANSBuffalo (7-5) vs. Tulane (6-6)
FRISCO CLASSICNORTHWESTERN (6-6) vs. Kennesaw State (8-5)
DECEMBER 18
BOCA RATONILLINOIS (6-6) vs. Western Michigan (8-4)
GASPARILLAFlorida State (6-6) vs. James Madison (9-4)
CFP#9 BYU (10-2) at #8 Texas (10-3)
DECEMBER 19
CFP#10 Florida (10-2) at #7 Notre Dame (10-2)
CFP#19 Boise State (12-1) at #5 Houston (12-1)
CFP#11 USC (9-3) at #6 Texas Tech (12-1)
DECEMBER 21
MYRTLE BEACHMarshall (9-3) vs. Memphis (6-6)
POTATOAir Force (9-4) vs. Miami(Ohio) (9-4)
DECEMBER 22
PUERTO RICOSacramento State (8-4) vs. Tulsa (6-6)
CURENEBRASKA (6-6) vs. Connecticut (6-6)
INDEPENDENCEKansas (6-6) vs. UCLA (6-6)
DECEMBER 23
NEW ORLEANS#25 Troy (10-2) vs. Jacksonville State (9-4)
ARMED FORCESFlorida Atlantic (8-4) vs. Western Kentucky (7-6)
FRISCOLouisiana (9-4) vs. Delaware (7-5)
DECEMBER 24
NEW MEXICONew Mexico (9-3) vs. Louisiana Tech (7-5)
HAWAIIEast Carolina (8-4) vs. Liberty (7-5)
DECEMBER 26
PINSTRIPE#17 Virginia Tech (9-3) vs. MICHIGAN (7-5)
FENWAY#22 UTSA (11-2) vs. North Carolina (7-5)
MAYO#23 Virginia (9-3) vs. MARYLAND (7-5)
68 VENTURESOhio (8-4) vs. Old Dominion (8-4)
CACTUSWISCONSIN (7-5) vs. Colorado (6-6)
POINSETTIA#24 Hawaii (11-2) vs. California (6-6)
DECEMBER 28
MILITARYLouisville (8-4) vs. Navy (9-3)
DECEMBER 29
BIRMINGHAMClemson (7-5) vs. Auburn (6-6)
POP-TARTS#18 Utah (9-3) vs. #21 SMU (9-3)
ALAMO#16 Arizona State (9-3) vs. WASHINGTON (7-5)
DECEMBER 30
GATOR#20 Georgia Tech (9-3) vs. LSU (6-6)
MUSIC CITYOHIO STATE (8-4) vs. Ole Miss (8-4)
FIESTA#3 OREGON (12-1) vs. Texas Tech/USC
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#14 PENN STATE (9-3) vs. #15 Texas A&M (9-3)
SUNPittsburgh (6-6) vs. Texas State (7-6)
LAS VEGASArizona (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (7-5)
TEXASSouth Carolina (7-5) vs. TCU (7-5)
JANUARY 1
COTTON#4 Miami (12-1) vs. Houston/Boise State
ROSE#1 INDIANA (13-0) vs. Texas/BYU
PEACH#2 Georgia vs. Notre Dame/Florida
JANUARY 2
CITRUS#12 Tennessee (9-3) vs. #13 IOWA (9-3)
FIRST RESPONDERDuke (7-5) vs. South Florida (9-4)
LIBERTYAlabama (8-4) vs. Kansas State (8-4)
ARIZONAToledo (9-4) vs. UNLV (9-4)
HOLIDAYNC State (6-6) vs. Washington State (6-6)
JANUARY 14
ORANGECFP Semifinal
JANUARY 15
SUGARCFP Semifinal
JANUARY 25
CHAMPIONSHIP

Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 19, 2026, 04:47:27 PM
BOWL WEEK 1

DECEMBER 15.
VETERANSTulane d. Buffalo
FRISCO CLASSICKennesaw State d. NORTHWESTERN
DECEMBER 18
BOCA RATONILLINOIS d. Western Michigan
GASPARILLAFlorida State d. James Madison
CFP#8 Texas d. #9 BYU
DECEMBER 19
CFP#7 Notre Dame d. #10 Florida
CFP#5 Houston d. #19 Boise State
CFP#6 Texas Tech d. #11 USC
DECEMBER 21
MYRTLE BEACHMarshall (9-3) vs. Memphis (6-6)
POTATOAir Force (9-4) vs. Miami(Ohio) (9-4)
DECEMBER 22
PUERTO RICOSacramento State (8-4) vs. Tulsa (6-6)
CURENEBRASKA (6-6) vs. Connecticut (6-6)
INDEPENDENCEKansas (6-6) vs. UCLA (6-6)
DECEMBER 23
NEW ORLEANS#25 Troy (10-2) vs. Jacksonville State (9-4)
ARMED FORCESFlorida Atlantic (8-4) vs. Western Kentucky (7-6)
FRISCOLouisiana (9-4) vs. Delaware (7-5)
DECEMBER 24
NEW MEXICONew Mexico (9-3) vs. Louisiana Tech (7-5)
HAWAIIEast Carolina (8-4) vs. Liberty (7-5)
DECEMBER 26
PINSTRIPE#17 Virginia Tech (9-3) vs. MICHIGAN (7-5)
FENWAY#22 UTSA (11-2) vs. North Carolina (7-5)
MAYO#23 Virginia (9-3) vs. MARYLAND (7-5)
68 VENTURESOhio (8-4) vs. Old Dominion (8-4)
CACTUSWISCONSIN (7-5) vs. Colorado (6-6)
POINSETTIA#24 Hawaii (11-2) vs. California (6-6)
DECEMBER 28
MILITARYLouisville (8-4) vs. Navy (9-3)
DECEMBER 29
BIRMINGHAMClemson (7-5) vs. Auburn (6-6)
POP-TARTS#18 Utah (9-3) vs. #21 SMU (9-3)
ALAMO#16 Arizona State (9-3) vs. WASHINGTON (7-5)
DECEMBER 30
GATOR#20 Georgia Tech (9-3) vs. LSU (6-6)
MUSIC CITYOHIO STATE (8-4) vs. Ole Miss (8-4)
FIESTA#3 OREGON (12-1) vs. #6 Texas Tech (13-1)
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#14 PENN STATE (9-3) vs. #15 Texas A&M (9-3)
SUNPittsburgh (6-6) vs. Texas State (7-6)
LAS VEGASArizona (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (7-5)
TEXASSouth Carolina (7-5) vs. TCU (7-5)
JANUARY 1
COTTON#4 Miami (12-1) vs. #5 Houston (13-1)
ROSE#1 INDIANA (13-0) vs. #8 Texas (11-3)
PEACH#2 Georgia (13-0) vs. #7 Notre Dame (11-2)
JANUARY 2
CITRUS#12 Tennessee (9-3) vs. #13 IOWA (9-3)
FIRST RESPONDERDuke (7-5) vs. South Florida (9-4)
LIBERTYAlabama (8-4) vs. Kansas State (8-4)
ARIZONAToledo (9-4) vs. UNLV (9-4)
HOLIDAYNC State (6-6) vs. Washington State (6-6)
JANUARY 14
ORANGECFP Semifinal
JANUARY 15
SUGARCFP Semifinal
JANUARY 25
CHAMPIONSHIP

Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 19, 2026, 07:42:06 PM
BOWL WEEK 2

DECEMBER 15.
VETERANSTulane d. Buffalo
FRISCO CLASSICKennesaw State d. NORTHWESTERN
DECEMBER 18
BOCA RATONILLINOIS d. Western Michigan
GASPARILLAFlorida State d. James Madison
CFP#8 Texas d. #9 BYU
DECEMBER 19
CFP#7 Notre Dame d. #10 Florida
CFP#5 Houston d. #19 Boise State
CFP#6 Texas Tech d. #11 USC
DECEMBER 21
MYRTLE BEACHMemphis d. Marshall
POTATOAir Force d. Miami(Ohio)
DECEMBER 22
PUERTO RICOTulsa d. Sacramento State
CURENEBRASKA d. Connecticut
INDEPENDENCEKansas d. UCLA
DECEMBER 23
NEW ORLEANSJacksonville State d. #25 Troy
ARMED FORCESWestern Kentucky d. Florida Atlantic
FRISCOLouisiana d. Delaware
DECEMBER 24
NEW MEXICOLouisiana Tech d. New Mexico
HAWAIIEast Carolina d. Liberty
DECEMBER 26
PINSTRIPEMICHIGAN d. #17 Virginia Tech
FENWAYNorth Carolina d. #22 UTSA
MAYO#23 Virginia d. MARYLAND
68 VENTURESOhio d. Old Dominion
CACTUSWISCONSIN d. Colorado
POINSETTIACalifornia d. #24 Hawaii
DECEMBER 28
MILITARYLouisville (8-4) vs. Navy (9-3)
DECEMBER 29
BIRMINGHAMClemson (7-5) vs. Auburn (6-6)
POP-TARTS#18 Utah (9-3) vs. #21 SMU (9-3)
ALAMO#16 Arizona State (9-3) vs. WASHINGTON (7-5)
DECEMBER 30
GATOR#20 Georgia Tech (9-3) vs. LSU (6-6)
MUSIC CITYOHIO STATE (8-4) vs. Ole Miss (8-4)
FIESTA#3 OREGON (12-1) vs. #6 Texas Tech (13-1)
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#14 PENN STATE (9-3) vs. #15 Texas A&M (9-3)
SUNPittsburgh (6-6) vs. Texas State (7-6)
LAS VEGASArizona (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (7-5)
TEXASSouth Carolina (7-5) vs. TCU (7-5)
JANUARY 1
COTTON#4 Miami (12-1) vs. #5 Houston (13-1)
ROSE#1 INDIANA (13-0) vs. #8 Texas (11-3)
PEACH#2 Georgia (13-0) vs. #7 Notre Dame (11-2)
JANUARY 2
CITRUS#12 Tennessee (9-3) vs. #13 IOWA (9-3)
FIRST RESPONDERDuke (7-5) vs. South Florida (9-4)
LIBERTYAlabama (8-4) vs. Kansas State (8-4)
ARIZONAToledo (9-4) vs. UNLV (9-4)
HOLIDAYNC State (6-6) vs. Washington State (6-6)
JANUARY 14
ORANGECFP Semifinal
JANUARY 15
SUGARCFP Semifinal
JANUARY 25
CHAMPIONSHIP
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2026, 05:38:26 PM
BOWL WEEK 3

DECEMBER 15.
VETERANSTulane d. Buffalo
FRISCO CLASSICKennesaw State d. NORTHWESTERN
DECEMBER 18
BOCA RATONILLINOIS d. Western Michigan
GASPARILLAFlorida State d. James Madison
CFP#8 Texas d. #9 BYU
DECEMBER 19
CFP#7 Notre Dame d. #10 Florida
CFP#5 Houston d. #19 Boise State
CFP#6 Texas Tech d. #11 USC
DECEMBER 21
MYRTLE BEACHMemphis d. Marshall
POTATOAir Force d. Miami(Ohio)
DECEMBER 22
PUERTO RICOTulsa d. Sacramento State
CURENEBRASKA d. Connecticut
INDEPENDENCEKansas d. UCLA
DECEMBER 23
NEW ORLEANSJacksonville State d. #25 Troy
ARMED FORCESWestern Kentucky d. Florida Atlantic
FRISCOLouisiana d. Delaware
DECEMBER 24
NEW MEXICOLouisiana Tech d. New Mexico
HAWAIIEast Carolina d. Liberty
DECEMBER 26
PINSTRIPEMICHIGAN d. #17 Virginia Tech
FENWAYNorth Carolina d. #22 UTSA
MAYO#23 Virginia d. MARYLAND
68 VENTURESOhio d. Old Dominion
CACTUSWISCONSIN d. Colorado
POINSETTIACalifornia d. #24 Hawaii
DECEMBER 28
MILITARYLouisville d. Navy
DECEMBER 29
BIRMINGHAMAuburn d. Clemson
POP-TARTS#21 SMU d. #18 Utah
ALAMOWASHINGTON d. #16 Arizona State
DECEMBER 30
GATOR#20 Georgia Tech d. LSU
MUSIC CITYOle Miss d. OHIO STATE
FIESTA#6 Texas Tech d. #3 OREGON
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#15 Texas A&M d. #14 PENN STATE
SUNPittsburgh d. Texas State
LAS VEGASOklahoma d. Arizona
TEXASSouth Carolina d. TCU
JANUARY 1
COTTON#5 Houston (13-1) d. #4 Miami
ROSE#1 INDIANA d. #8 Texas
PEACH#2 Georgia d. #7 Notre Dame
JANUARY 2
CITRUS#13 IOWA d. #12 Tennessee
FIRST RESPONDERDuke d. South Florida
LIBERTYAlabama d. Kansas State
ARIZONAUNLV d. Toledo
HOLIDAYNC State d. Washington State
JANUARY 14
ORANGE#1 INDIANA vs. #5 Houston
JANUARY 15
SUGAR#2 Georgia vs. #6 Texas Tech
JANUARY 25
CHAMPIONSHIP
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2026, 05:45:13 PM
BOWL WEEK 4

DECEMBER 15.
VETERANSTulane d. Buffalo
FRISCO CLASSICKennesaw State d. NORTHWESTERN
DECEMBER 18
BOCA RATONILLINOIS d. Western Michigan
GASPARILLAFlorida State d. James Madison
CFP#8 Texas d. #9 BYU
DECEMBER 19
CFP#7 Notre Dame d. #10 Florida
CFP#5 Houston d. #19 Boise State
CFP#6 Texas Tech d. #11 USC
DECEMBER 21
MYRTLE BEACHMemphis d. Marshall
POTATOAir Force d. Miami(Ohio)
DECEMBER 22
PUERTO RICOTulsa d. Sacramento State
CURENEBRASKA d. Connecticut
INDEPENDENCEKansas d. UCLA
DECEMBER 23
NEW ORLEANSJacksonville State d. #25 Troy
ARMED FORCESWestern Kentucky d. Florida Atlantic
FRISCOLouisiana d. Delaware
DECEMBER 24
NEW MEXICOLouisiana Tech d. New Mexico
HAWAIIEast Carolina d. Liberty
DECEMBER 26
PINSTRIPEMICHIGAN d. #17 Virginia Tech
FENWAYNorth Carolina d. #22 UTSA
MAYO#23 Virginia d. MARYLAND
68 VENTURESOhio d. Old Dominion
CACTUSWISCONSIN d. Colorado
POINSETTIACalifornia d. #24 Hawaii
DECEMBER 28
MILITARYLouisville d. Navy
DECEMBER 29
BIRMINGHAMAuburn d. Clemson
POP-TARTS#21 SMU d. #18 Utah
ALAMOWASHINGTON d. #16 Arizona State
DECEMBER 30
GATOR#20 Georgia Tech d. LSU
MUSIC CITYOle Miss d. OHIO STATE
FIESTA#6 Texas Tech d. #3 OREGON
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#15 Texas A&M d. #14 PENN STATE
SUNPittsburgh d. Texas State
LAS VEGASOklahoma d. Arizona
TEXASSouth Carolina d. TCU
JANUARY 1
COTTON#5 Houston (13-1) d. #4 Miami
ROSE#1 INDIANA d. #8 Texas
PEACH#2 Georgia d. #7 Notre Dame
JANUARY 2
CITRUS#13 IOWA d. #12 Tennessee
FIRST RESPONDERDuke d. South Florida
LIBERTYAlabama d. Kansas State
ARIZONAUNLV d. Toledo
HOLIDAYNC State d. Washington State
JANUARY 14
ORANGE#1 INDIANA d. #5 Houston
JANUARY 15
SUGAR#6 Texas Tech d. #2 Georgia
JANUARY 25
CHAMPIONSHIP#1 INDIANA (16-0) vs. #6 Texas Tech (15-1)
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2026, 05:48:48 PM
just another undefeated season for the Hoosiers
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 20, 2026, 06:00:52 PM
At this point it's just weird re: Ohio State.  It's not like I put both teams into a simulator, and the simulator hates them.  I put their odds into a simulator, and somehow OSU came out ahead in the one game they were underdogs in, and then lost 5 games as the favorite
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2026, 10:25:32 PM
college football is crazy like that
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2026, 08:43:18 AM
Fire Kirby Smart.  Hire Lane Kiffin.

I first typed Hore Lane Kiffin and almost left it.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: MikeDeTiger on August 21, 2026, 10:11:42 AM
Fire Kirby Smart.  Hire Lane Kiffin.


He's going to be available, according to this simulation.  We just spent $50 mil to go 6-7.  
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2026, 10:27:20 AM
Geeze, good luck with that one ......
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on August 21, 2026, 12:18:58 PM
He's going to be available, according to this simulation.  We just spent $50 mil to go 6-7.
Yeah, at least Georgia made the CFP in this simulation. Ohio State and LSU could have played each other in the (insert sponsor here) How Did We Spend This Much and Miss the CFP Bowl.
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2026, 12:36:44 PM

He's going to be available, according to this simulation.  We just spent $50 mil to go 6-7. 
it's only money
but, some of that money could have been used to buy better players
Title: Re: 2026 SP+/FPI Season Simulation
Post by: ELA on August 25, 2026, 10:00:55 AM
BOWL WEEK 5

DECEMBER 15.
VETERANSTulane d. Buffalo
FRISCO CLASSICKennesaw State d. NORTHWESTERN
DECEMBER 18
BOCA RATONILLINOIS d. Western Michigan
GASPARILLAFlorida State d. James Madison
CFP#8 Texas d. #9 BYU
DECEMBER 19
CFP#7 Notre Dame d. #10 Florida
CFP#5 Houston d. #19 Boise State
CFP#6 Texas Tech d. #11 USC
DECEMBER 21
MYRTLE BEACHMemphis d. Marshall
POTATOAir Force d. Miami(Ohio)
DECEMBER 22
PUERTO RICOTulsa d. Sacramento State
CURENEBRASKA d. Connecticut
INDEPENDENCEKansas d. UCLA
DECEMBER 23
NEW ORLEANSJacksonville State d. #25 Troy
ARMED FORCESWestern Kentucky d. Florida Atlantic
FRISCOLouisiana d. Delaware
DECEMBER 24
NEW MEXICOLouisiana Tech d. New Mexico
HAWAIIEast Carolina d. Liberty
DECEMBER 26
PINSTRIPEMICHIGAN d. #17 Virginia Tech
FENWAYNorth Carolina d. #22 UTSA
MAYO#23 Virginia d. MARYLAND
68 VENTURESOhio d. Old Dominion
CACTUSWISCONSIN d. Colorado
POINSETTIACalifornia d. #24 Hawaii
DECEMBER 28
MILITARYLouisville d. Navy
DECEMBER 29
BIRMINGHAMAuburn d. Clemson
POP-TARTS#21 SMU d. #18 Utah
ALAMOWASHINGTON d. #16 Arizona State
DECEMBER 30
GATOR#20 Georgia Tech d. LSU
MUSIC CITYOle Miss d. OHIO STATE
FIESTA#6 Texas Tech d. #3 OREGON
DECEMBER 31
RELIAQUEST#15 Texas A&M d. #14 PENN STATE
SUNPittsburgh d. Texas State
LAS VEGASOklahoma d. Arizona
TEXASSouth Carolina d. TCU
JANUARY 1
COTTON#5 Houston (13-1) d. #4 Miami
ROSE#1 INDIANA d. #8 Texas
PEACH#2 Georgia d. #7 Notre Dame
JANUARY 2
CITRUS#13 IOWA d. #12 Tennessee
FIRST RESPONDERDuke d. South Florida
LIBERTYAlabama d. Kansas State
ARIZONAUNLV d. Toledo
HOLIDAYNC State d. Washington State
JANUARY 14
ORANGE#1 INDIANA d. #5 Houston
JANUARY 15
SUGAR#6 Texas Tech d. #2 Georgia
JANUARY 25
CHAMPIONSHIP#6 Texas Tech d. #1 INDIANA