CFB51 College Football Fan Community

The Power Four => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on July 22, 2026, 11:43:43 AM

Title: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 22, 2026, 11:43:43 AM
Link (https://fbschedules.com/college-football-strength-of-schedule-phil-steeles-2026-rankings/).  



Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2026, 11:46:00 AM
I'll take being #32 this year over #1 or #2 last year.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: utee94 on July 22, 2026, 11:49:07 AM
Dooooooommmeeed
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: ELA on July 22, 2026, 12:38:15 PM
Should go great
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Cincydawg on July 22, 2026, 01:00:17 PM
UGA has a pretty light schedule this year, relatively.  They are dropping a lot of their "extra" P5 opponents because of the 9 game conference slate, which I feared would happen.  GaTech does seem to be improving of late.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 22, 2026, 03:27:52 PM
Dooooooommmeeed
As you know, I thought Texas got hosed last year.  They went 9-3 but did it on a brutal schedule.  They were 2-2 against CFP teams with wins over OU and aTm at home and road losses to Ohio State and Georgia.  

I'm concerned that Ohio State could suffer a similar fate this year.  The Buckeyes have six games against teams included in ESPN's preseason top-25 (using that for now until AP comes out):

Here is a scenario for Ohio State that is more-or-less a duplication of what Texas did last year:
Ohio State would be 9-3 including perfect at home including impressive home wins over Oregon and Michigan and a tough road win at USC and . . . Possibly left out of the CFP in favor of a team or teams that played easier schedules and finished with better records.  


I obviously care about Ohio State but my concern here is more for the broader impact on the sport.  If that happens to Ohio State this year then I have to believe that the AD's at Texas and Ohio State are going to put their heads together and realize that playing each other cost them each a CFP spot because:

Obviously there are some other factors at play as well.  Ohio State and Texas get a lot more ticket revenue and national attention by playing each other than they would by playing OhioU/TexasSt but I have to believe that a CFP spot would EASILY make up for that.  I am opposed to any system that incentivizes weak schedules.  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: utee94 on July 22, 2026, 03:36:31 PM
Yeah Texas will play Ohio State this year and Michigan next year, but only because those are both return games at home.  If Michigan next year were on the road, I'm pretty sure Texas woulda "noped" out.  There are rumors we're gonna nope out of the Notre Dame series in 2028/2029.  I'd be disappointed but it's hard to fault the administration for it.

Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 22, 2026, 03:54:16 PM
Yeah Texas will play Ohio State this year and Michigan next year, but only because those are both return games at home.  If Michigan next year were on the road, I'm pretty sure Texas woulda "noped" out.  There are rumors we're gonna nope out of the Notre Dame series in 2028/2029.  I'd be disappointed but it's hard to fault the administration for it.
I'm in the same boat.  Ohio State has Bama (27 in Columbus, 28 in Tuscaloosa) and Georgia (30 in Athens, 31 in Columbus) upcoming but if they look at what happened to Texas last year and what could and still might happen to Ohio State this year and decide to cancel those games my feeling will be the same as yours.  I'll be disappointed but I will blame the structure/voters not my own school's administration.  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Mdot21 on July 22, 2026, 04:15:07 PM
2nd toughest schedule in the country...Bryce Underwood better be ready to play. 

I think Michigan will be surprisingly good on defense even with the personnel losses. Whittingham is a hard nosed SOB whose teams always play tough and he brought some good players with him- John Henry Daley at EDGE, Jonah Lea'a at D-tackle, and Smith Snowden at nickel- all high quality players on that side of the ball. 

Henry Daley is an instant star out at EDGE, Cam Brandt is a solid experienced starter at the other EDGE and Michigan has lot of young highly recruited/highly regarded talent at EDGE waiting in the wings- Dom Nichols & Lugard Edokpayi are guys this staff are very high on and former OMERG 5 STARZ Nate Marshall who flashed last year in moments and another OMERG 5 STARZ true frosh Carter Meadows.

Secondary should be in good shape with Jyaire Hill and Zeke Berry coming back at CB, Smith Snowden coming over at nickel, Shamari Earls waiting in the wings at CB3, and Rod Moore coming back for his 6th year at free safety. LB is biggest question mark on that side of ball- but I think they'll be solid. 

Bryce better be putting in the work. Need to see massive improvement from him this year because I think he'll have a pretty damn good defense backing him up and should have a really good run game with Jordan Marshall and the all everything OMERG 5 STARZ freak Savion Hiter. #HailHiter! 
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 22, 2026, 04:34:03 PM
I think everyone should freeze Notre Dame out. Let 'em play Rice, Army, Navy, Air Force, BYU, UNLV and the like.

They are playing 3 B1G teams this season, including mine, and I hate it.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 22, 2026, 04:37:40 PM
2nd toughest schedule in the country...Bryce Underwood better be ready to play.
Michigan's schedule is tough but I think that the rating I linked may be undervaluing HFA because Michigan's schedule doesn't look THAT tough to me.  

Michigan does have road games against ESPN's preseason #1 (Ohio State) and #2 (Oregon) teams and obviously that is rough but after that it looks manageable to me.  They only have four road games and the other two are against Minnesota and Rutgers so they should win those.  If they take care of business at home they'll make the CFP even with losses in both Columbus and Eugene.  Their other games against ESPN preseason top-25 teams are:


It is a weird split having what are effectively the two toughest possible games based on ESPN's preseason rankings and then no other serious challenges on the road.  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: FearlessF on July 22, 2026, 10:19:35 PM
well, it's projected toughest

it won't end this way
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 23, 2026, 12:03:43 AM
Bring it on
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2026, 08:54:00 AM
well, it's projected toughest

it won't end this way
Yup.  I view it as a rough indication, at most.  But it's worth a minor glimpse.  It's likely that 2-3 opponents you will face end up sliding and perhaps one ends up being much tougher than expected.  Ole Miss for example will start out looking formidable of course, and their QB is quite good, but they seem like a team that could end up 8-4ish, to me, if pieces fall against them.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 23, 2026, 09:27:03 AM
Yup.  I view it as a rough indication, at most.  But it's worth a minor glimpse.  It's likely that 2-3 opponents you will face end up sliding and perhaps one ends up being much tougher than expected.  Ole Miss for example will start out looking formidable of course, and their QB is quite good, but they seem like a team that could end up 8-4ish, to me, if pieces fall against them.
Same, a good rough indication.  We've all followed this sport long enough to know there is a good chance that one of those preseason top-10 teams will probably end up 7-5 or worse and some team that nobody is talking about will probably end up 10-2 or better but for most teams SoS that will at least somewhat balance out and it is pretty unlikely that all of your opponents will end up either better or worse than projected.  If we reranked schedules at the end of the year Texas and Michigan might not end up with the #1 and #2 toughest schedules but they aren't going to end up with the two easiest.  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 23, 2026, 10:36:48 AM
Woo!

1-11 incoming!
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Mdot21 on July 23, 2026, 10:43:36 AM
Woo!

1-11 incoming!
could be worse. you could be a Nebraska fan.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 23, 2026, 11:25:12 AM
could be worse. you could be a Nebraska fan.
(https://media.tenor.com/37YnkHxCLeoAAAAC/flounder-animal-house-dean-vernon-wormer.gif)
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Cincydawg on July 23, 2026, 11:36:26 AM
Of course, the elite teams will have a somewhat weaker slate because they don't play ... themselves ...
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 23, 2026, 04:24:16 PM
Woo!

1-11 incoming!
I looked because I was curious and FWIW, I actually think Purdue's schedule is reasonably favorable for them.  

According to ESPN/SP+, Purdue is projected to be the worst team in the B1G (#83 nationally) with an SP+ of -3.1.  As we have discussed, HFA is most relevant in the games against teams rated the closest to the team in question.  Two examples:

Purdue and Ohio State both travel to Indiana this season.  Assuming the SP+ ratings are even remotely close to accurate, the location of that game is almost completely irrelevant for Purdue as they'd be a 3TD underdog on a neutral field so they have almost no chance of winning in either Bloomington or West Lafayette.  Conversely, for Ohio State, the location of the IU game in Bloomington is a major disadvantage because according to SP+ the Buckeyes would be roughly a TD favorite on a neutral field and borderline double-digit favorite in Columbus but in Bloomington the game is close to a toss-up.  

Purdue and Ohio State both host Maryland this season.  Assuming the SP+ ratings are even remotely close to accurate, the location of that game is almost completely irrelevant for Ohio State as they'd be roughly a 4TD favorite on a neutral field so they should win easily in either Columbus or College Park.  Conversely, for Purdue, the location of the Maryland game in West Lafayette is a major advantage because according to SP+ the Boilermakers would be roughly a TD underdog on a neutral field so they would be a borderline double-digit dog in Maryland but at home that game is close to a toss-up.  

I think Purdue's schedule is reasonably favorable because they play two of the next four projected worst teams and get both at home.  The boilermakers also miss four of the projected best five teams in the league (tOSU, ORE, USC, M) so that helps.  

I'm not predicting that Purdue will win the league but it wouldn't be all that surprising if they managed to attain bowl eligibility.  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 23, 2026, 05:59:22 PM
I think everyone should freeze Notre Dame out. Let 'em play Rice, Army, Navy, Air Force, BYU, UNLV and the like.

They already do.  If they don't win a NC this year, they never will.  Their schedule is a joke.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 23, 2026, 07:16:29 PM
I'm not predicting that Purdue will win the league but it wouldn't be all that surprising if they managed to attain bowl eligibility. 
In all honesty, I have no idea what Purdue will look like this year. I just looked at the schedule and realized it's one FCS, zero G6, and 11 P2+2 teams, and assumed we're going to lose them all. 
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: FearlessF on July 23, 2026, 11:26:48 PM
They already do.  If they don't win a NC this year, they never will.  Their schedule is a joke.
well, that was more possible before the playoff and then the expanded playoff
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 24, 2026, 12:20:58 AM
I tried to Google the Purdue schedule, and every link was for basketball. 
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: FearlessF on July 24, 2026, 08:56:34 AM
as it should be
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: FearlessF on July 25, 2026, 08:15:13 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/8ExsCo4.jpeg)
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: utee94 on July 25, 2026, 08:17:01 AM
Looks like fun, let's do it!  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: FearlessF on July 25, 2026, 08:20:47 AM
yup, just swap Vandy and Mizzou
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Mdot21 on July 25, 2026, 09:59:21 AM
(https://media.tenor.com/37YnkHxCLeoAAAAC/flounder-animal-house-dean-vernon-wormer.gif)
hey I'm just saying at least knowing you'll stink has to be better than Nebraska fans who are like....WE'RE BACK BABY....OH WAIT...NOOOO...NEXT YEAR! JEFF SIMMS FOR HEISMAN....OH FUCK WAIT....NO....DYLAN RAIOLA FOR HEISMAN....OH FUCK WAIT NO.....MATT RHULE IS THE GOAT....OH FUCK WAIT NO......NEXT YEAR! (*6-6 record in 2026 loading up*)
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 25, 2026, 10:34:48 AM
I seem to remember suggesting Raiola was VERY unlikely to remain at Nebraska and being assured that no, he'll definitely stick around.  
Hmph.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Gigem on July 25, 2026, 11:52:34 AM
I seem to remember suggesting Raiola was VERY unlikely to remain at Nebraska and being assured that no, he'll definitely stick around. 
Hmph.
Jeez.  I don't follow NU football much, so no shockers that I didn't realize that he bailed.  

I'm fully aware that this is coming from a fan for a team that "never was", but it seems like Nebraska may be one of those teams that won't ever be able to get back to glory, that at one time was very elite.  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 25, 2026, 11:57:37 AM
Jeez.  I don't follow NU football much, so no shockers that I didn't realize that he bailed. 

I'm fully aware that this is coming from a fan for a team that "never was", but it seems like Nebraska may be one of those teams that won't ever be able to get back to glory, that at one time was very elite. 
The new Minnesota.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Mdot21 on July 25, 2026, 04:17:59 PM
Jeez.  I don't follow NU football much, so no shockers that I didn't realize that he bailed. 

I'm fully aware that this is coming from a fan for a team that "never was", but it seems like Nebraska may be one of those teams that won't ever be able to get back to glory, that at one time was very elite. 
never say never especially in the age of NIL, but unless Warren Buffett opens the Berkshire Hathaway checkbook and goes on a $40 million spending spree I highly doubt Nebraska will ever get back to where they want to. And even then throwing money at the problem is no guarantee. As you know, A&M has spent god knows how many hundreds of millions to go 8-4 every year. Throwing money at the problem doesn't always guarantee success.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 25, 2026, 04:20:37 PM
Jeez.  I don't follow NU football much, so no shockers that I didn't realize that he bailed. 

I'm fully aware that this is coming from a fan for a team that "never was", but it seems like Nebraska may be one of those teams that won't ever be able to get back to glory, that at one time was very elite. 
He left to be the backup at Oregon. 
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Mdot21 on July 25, 2026, 04:25:39 PM
The new Minnesota.
Clarification- they are like the Minnesota of the 1960s- used to be great 30-35 years prior. Stuck in mediocrity for eternity. 

Nebraska will be Minnesota of today with about another 30-40 years of suck.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Mdot21 on July 25, 2026, 04:26:18 PM
He left to be the backup at Oregon.
which is pretty wild.....kid knew Matt Rhule was that much of a clown he bolted to be a back-up.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2026, 08:16:43 AM
The new Minnesota.
hah, what Wisconsin is hoping for
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2026, 08:19:57 AM
I seem to remember suggesting Raiola was VERY unlikely to remain at Nebraska and being assured that no, he'll definitely stick around. 
Hmph.
you were right, I was wrong

but, because he wasn't good, not because he was really good and some program with more money wanted him
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 26, 2026, 09:19:02 AM
hah, what Wisconsin is hoping for
A new coach?
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2026, 09:21:07 AM
yup, and hoping like hell, he's better than the boat rowing carnival barker
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Cincydawg on July 26, 2026, 09:27:28 AM
Is Steel broadly regarded as "the best" these days?  I think he was at one time, and then numbers started to be accounted.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: FearlessF on July 26, 2026, 10:46:27 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/R5yHj5q.png)
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Gigem on July 27, 2026, 08:35:56 AM
never say never especially in the age of NIL, but unless Warren Buffett opens the Berkshire Hathaway checkbook and goes on a $40 million spending spree I highly doubt Nebraska will ever get back to where they want to. And even then throwing money at the problem is no guarantee. As you know, A&M has spent god knows how many hundreds of millions to go 8-4 every year. Throwing money at the problem doesn't always guarantee success.
Well, I think that everybody knows that NIL is changing things, but even before NIL became a thing, NU was in a multi-decade slump.  I don't keep up with them all that much, but it seems that after Solich was out around '02, they had a couple of seasons of being pretty good under Pelini, but outside of that a lot of really bad football.  

Contrast that to some of their peer programs, like your Michigan, who probably had just as many bad seasons or maybe more than Nebraska, but still managed to find their way back up the ladder.  All the while churning through coaches.  

Speaking of NIL, how does Michigan stack up?  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 27, 2026, 08:42:20 AM
Michigan is fine. Not OSU money, but not poor.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: FearlessF on July 27, 2026, 08:52:47 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/FmTdbLG.png)
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 27, 2026, 11:52:40 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/R5yHj5q.png)
I feel old because I remember a lot of those games.  Ohio State has two, one good and one bad.  

It reminds me that final score is often not a great indicator of just how close or lopsided a game was.  

Ohio State's win over #1 Oregon in 2024 is a 20 point win for posterity but realistically it was nowhere near that close.  The Buckeyes were up 34-0 in the second quarter then got outscored 21-7 while coasting to the win.  

Alabama's win over Notre Dame in 2012 was similarly lopsided.  The Tide were up 35-0 in the third quarter and gout outscored 14-7 after they had already started celebrating their NC.  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: MikeDeTiger on July 27, 2026, 12:26:31 PM
It reminds me that final score is often not a great indicator of just how close or lopsided a game was.  

Ohio State's loss to LSU in the MNC was two TDs on the scoreboard, but 3 TDs in meaningful time, before the defensive starters started sitting.  Whether or not you think LSU would have scored again if they didn't get irritated that OSU had the gall to score after the snowball would determine whether you think it was a 3 or 4 TD "type" of lopsided game.  But I think, one way or the other, OSU wouldn't have scored again if LSU hadn't started subbing liberally. 

Personally, I think LSU's foot would have been as firmly off the gas on the offensive side as it was the defensive side, and it would have stayed a 3-TD differential if OSU didn't score.  i.e., LSU only scored their final TD because the defense allowed OSU to score....sans that, LSU's offense would have gone into Les Miles' patented Hibernation/Clock-Kill mode.  IMO, anyway.  So it was a 14 pt game I view as a 21 pt type of game, which one could potentially view as a 28 pt type of game, though I'd disagree. 
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 27, 2026, 12:57:24 PM
Ohio State's loss to LSU in the MNC was two TDs on the scoreboard, but 3 TDs in meaningful time, before the defensive starters started sitting.  Whether or not you think LSU would have scored again if they didn't get irritated that OSU had the gall to score after the snowball would determine whether you think it was a 3 or 4 TD "type" of lopsided game.  But I think, one way or the other, OSU wouldn't have scored again if LSU hadn't started subbing liberally. 

Personally, I think LSU's foot would have been as firmly off the gas on the offensive side as it was the defensive side, and it would have stayed a 3-TD differential if OSU didn't score.  i.e., LSU only scored their final TD because the defense allowed OSU to score....sans that, LSU's offense would have gone into Les Miles' patented Hibernation/Clock-Kill mode.  IMO, anyway.  So it was a 14 pt game I view as a 21 pt type of game, which one could potentially view as a 28 pt type of game, though I'd disagree. 
My team has been in plenty of these on both sides so I've come up with a theory that I think is a better measure than the final score.  

My theory is that the best measure is time.  Specifically, at what point in the game would a neutral fan* have considered the game to be more-or-less over.  

As applied to LSU's 38-24 win over tOSU in the 2007 NC/2008 SugarBowl there is a strong argument for mid third quarter.  
If you remember, Ohio State jumped out to a 10-0 lead so when LSU took over (which they most certainly did) their first 10 just made it even.  At halftime it was 24-10 and felt worse (for me, better for you) than that because LSU had scored 24 straight but a 14 point game at the half is clearly NOT over.  Lots of teams have come back from being down 14 at the half.  About midway through the third quarter LSU scored AGAIN to conclude a 31-0 run that made it a three-TD game with roughly a quarter and a half (of a quarter) to go.  IMHO, at that point a neutral fan could conclude that the Buckeyes weren't going to suddenly take over and score enough points to win.  

I don't think that a reasonable argument could be made for anything earlier.  I *COULD* make an argument for later.  Now I looked it up and after Ohio State stopped the bleeding with a TD to make it 31-17 (2 TD game) late in the third, the Buckeyes forced a three-and-out to take possession down two TD's early in the fourth quarter.  The Buckeyes then drove to the LSU 37.  I think there is a reasonable argument that the game wasn't 'over' when Ohio State had a 1st down inside the LSU 40 with almost a full quarter to play and down by 14.  

I don't think you could argue for anything much later than that because even though tOSU forced a three-and-out there, by the time they got the ball back there was only around eight minutes to play and Ohio State was 80 yards from the goal line.  

The absolute latest you could possibly argue was the int at 5:43 to go.  After that the teams traded TD's but, as you indicated, neither was relevant.  

I only slightly differ from you here.  Your post made it sound like tOSU's second-to-last TD was completely inconsequential and I disagree.  That happened in the third quarter and made it a two-TD game.  If I were a neutral fan I *might* have turned the game off at 31-10 mid-way through the third but if I didn't I would have thought 'well maybe this will be interesting' when it got to 31-17 with more than 15 minutes to play.  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Gigem on July 27, 2026, 01:19:36 PM
I recall a Bama-LSU game a few years ago, I think when Burrow was there in the NC year ('21 maybe?).  LSU absolutely torched Bama, up by maybe 3-4 TD.  Bama refused to go down easy. What looked like a runaway game at the half, turned into a much closer loss to Alabama than what it should have been.  It seems like, at the end of the game, LSU only won by 1 TD, when they were winning by like 30 points (of what felt like 30) during the game.  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 27, 2026, 03:26:44 PM
I recall a Bama-LSU game a few years ago, I think when Burrow was there in the NC year ('21 maybe?).  LSU absolutely torched Bama, up by maybe 3-4 TD.  Bama refused to go down easy. What looked like a runaway game at the half, turned into a much closer loss to Alabama than what it should have been.  It seems like, at the end of the game, LSU only won by 1 TD, when they were winning by like 30 points (of what felt like 30) during the game. 
I remember that too.  I think Texas Tech had a team under Leach that set the record for biggest comeback in a half.  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Gigem on July 27, 2026, 03:29:40 PM
I remember that too.  I think Texas Tech had a team under Leach that set the record for biggest comeback in a half. 
Yes, I think it was Texas Tech vs TCU or something in a bowl game.  

I know for sure who the #2 record belongs to.  UCLA.  Excuse me while I go throw up.  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: ELA on July 27, 2026, 03:36:20 PM
I remember that too.  I think Texas Tech had a team under Leach that set the record for biggest comeback in a half. 
The largest comeback is still MSU over Northwestern in 2006.  Down 38-3 with 9 minutes left in the 3rd.  I think TT had the record for largest comeback in a bowl game

https://youtu.be/7dTonBbPlco?si=dn2YPGFmNaHh7ch8
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: MikeDeTiger on July 28, 2026, 10:03:52 AM
My theory is that the best measure is time.  Specifically, at what point in the game would a neutral fan* have considered the game to be more-or-less over.  

I thought the game was over twice :57:

Once when Ohio State went up 10-0 in the first quarter and LSU was busy bumbling snaps over the QBs head for massive losses, while the MLB refused to stay in his gap and Beanie Wells ran like a gazelle on the African plains.  And once early in the third quarter out of the half, when Ohio State stopped LSU's opening possession but then roughed the punter, and LSU continued the drive and scored anyway.  


I only slightly differ from you here.  Your post made it sound like tOSU's second-to-last TD was completely inconsequential and I disagree.  That happened in the third quarter and made it a two-TD game.  If I were a neutral fan I *might* have turned the game off at 31-10 mid-way through the third but if I didn't I would have thought 'well maybe this will be interesting' when it got to 31-17 with more than 15 minutes to play. 


More like I didn't think it materially affected the inevitable outcome at that point.  There were already backups creeping in, and I was yelling at the tv that if the offense was about to go turtle-mode, put Beckwith back in to decapitate Boeckman a few more times and quit giving them hope.  I probably view that TD more in retrospect than at the time, so I know what you're saying.  When the offense responded and showed if OSU scored, we can score more, then at that time I kind of mentally adjust the meaning of the previous TD from "Oh, they're only down 14 now" to "We'll make this a 21 pt affair as much as we need to."  

Given how much the defense struggled in 2008, I wish Les had just left all the starters in and not worried about giving the new guys heavy PT in the 4th quarter....it certainly didn't help them at all the next year.  

Now....a MUCH better couple of games were the ones between OSU and LSU for a home-and-home back in the 80's.  Discuss :)
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 28, 2026, 12:54:09 PM
I thought the game was over twice :57:
I'm the opposite.  Upthread I specified a "neutral fan" because when my team is involved I tend to be one of the last ones to feel comfortable when they are ahead and one of the last ones to give up hope when they are behind.  
Once when Ohio State went up 10-0 in the first quarter and LSU was busy bumbling snaps over the QBs head for massive losses, while the MLB refused to stay in his gap and Beanie Wells ran like a gazelle on the African plains.  
At that point I was feeling pretty good but I certainly didn't think it was over.  
And once early in the third quarter out of the half, when Ohio State stopped LSU's opening possession but then roughed the punter, and LSU continued the drive and scored anyway. 
In retrospect that roughing the punter penalty was the dagger.  Ohio State had gotten a stop and IIRC it was 4th and a freaking mile.  At that point it was a two TD game at 24-10 so a stop and a score makes it a one possession game and they got dinged for roughing, LSU scored and it was a three-score game.  I still didn't think it was over because bigger leads have been overcome in less time but it was nearly insurmountable at that point.  

I'm going to share my story of that game.  So obviously it was LSU and Ohio State for the NC in LSU's home state.  Ohio State always travels well.  I don't know how well LSU travels typically but it really doesn't matter for a game in their back yard.  I had been to a bunch of bowl games before that and when that matchup was first set the prices were astronomical because LSU vs tOSU for the NC in Louisiana is about as high demand as you could get.  My brother and I talked about it and decided not to go because tickets were $2k+ for bad seats.  About a week before the game demand dropped because everybody had their plans set and scalpers started dumping their tickets so when it got down under $500 my brother and I decided to go.  

A friend of ours lived in Atlanta at the time so we got three tickets.  The tickets arrived via FedEx while my brother and I were in the driveway waiting to leave.  He and I spent a night in Nashville and saw the Grand Ole Opry then met up with our friend in Tuscaloosa and went to the game.  

Weird game.  The first three possessions almost couldn't have been better for the Buckeyes.  It was as you described it:  LSU was bumbling snaps on offense and missing assignments on defense and the Buckeyes were up 10-0 before some fans had managed to find their seats.  From then to mid-3rd quarter it completely flipped.  Ohio State's possessions while LSU was scoring 31 unanswered points were:
Then it got slightly worse AFTER it got to 31-10.  Ohio State got the ball back down by 21 and was forced to punt.  Punting felt like giving up because it was mid-way through the third quarter but then LSU inexplicably threw a pick.  As much as fans complain (as you did upthread) about coaches going conservative this is why.  That pick momentarily gave Ohio State life.  Ohio State took over at the 11 and punched it in to make it 31-17 which is still bad but not altogether insurmountable.  

Then Ohio State forced a quick 3-and-out and got the ball back down 14 early in the fourth and started driving and just when I started to believe . . . The QB got sacked and fumbled.  Then Ohio State forced another quick 3-and-out but when they got the ball back still down 14 the clock was down to around 3 minutes and it was over.  

My seats:
I would tell you that I sat in the last row of the SuperDome but that is actually an understatement.  There is a flat spot behind the last row.  It looks like it is so you can walk around there.  Anyway, I sat in a folding chair on the flat spot BEHIND the last row of the SuperDome and when I stood on my seat I literally touched the ceiling of the SuperDome.  

Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: MikeDeTiger on July 28, 2026, 01:13:43 PM
Hope they treated you well.  The only Sugar Bowl I ever went to, some of the LSU fans around me were complete asshats to the visiting Illinois fans.  It was a completely different experience than a game at Tiger Stadium.  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 28, 2026, 04:52:57 PM
Hope they treated you well.  The only Sugar Bowl I ever went to, some of the LSU fans around me were complete asshats to the visiting Illinois fans.  It was a completely different experience than a game at Tiger Stadium. 
Everyone was fine.  The game was an emotional roller-coaster as we've discussed at length here.  NOLA is fun to visit.  
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: Wildcat4E on July 28, 2026, 05:09:37 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/R5yHj5q.png)
I was present for the 28 point ass whuppin' on that cold night in Arrowhead.  

And thank you, Fearless, for paying up on that bet!  I transferred those tix to Ski, and sat (stood) in my KU-grad law school buddy's mom's box tix she got for being a Chiefs season ticket holder.

Season ended on an ugly note, with doubt that the QB was going to get to play with his gross sexual exploitation of another player's tutor, and even though he played, they came out flat and Ohio St. got up huge and the comeback in the Fiesta fell short.  Not to take anything away from the Buckeyes.  

I suspect I'm not the only one around here that remembers crap like that, but what I'm supposed to be working on today, uh, not so much.
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: FearlessF on July 28, 2026, 07:06:57 PM
I'm a pot stirrer, not a "welch"
Title: Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 28, 2026, 10:52:16 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/R5yHj5q.png)
2 national championships for the Gators here. 
The loss to Georgia was the 1 and only week Florida had ever been ranked #1 until Spurrier arrived and UF was preseason #1 in 1994.  88 years of football at that point, and the lone time we were #1, we immediately lost to our most-hated rival.